One More Cornetto?                                                                                07 July 2023

The 3,244 real estate and properties transactions totalled US$ 3.71 billion, during the week, ending 07 July 2023. The sum of transactions was 323 plots, sold for US$ 907 million, and 2,237 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.46 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first two in in Marsa Dubai, both selling for US$ 63 million, and the third in Al Thanayah for US$ 35 million. Al Hebiah Fifth recorded the most transactions, with eighty-six sales, worth US$ 68 million, followed by sixty-two sales in Al Goze Second for US$ 194 million, and forty-nine sales in Madinat Hind 4, valued at US$ 19 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were all for apartments – the first in Um Suqaim Third, valued at US$ 114 million, another in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 15 million, and a third in Zabeel First for US$ 13 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 823 million, whilst one hundred and ninety-six properties were granted between first-degree relatives worth US$ 545 million.

Knight Frank confirmed what many already knew – that Dubai luxury home, (any property with a value of over US$ 10 million), market continues to boom. In H1, there were one hundred and seventy-six homes, valued at over US$ 3.1 billion, sold in Dubai. This figure equates to 79% of the total number of US$ 10 million homes sold in 2022 and by the end of the year should break all records as that demand for prime property escalates. Last year, the emirate recorded the sale of two hundred and nineteen homes, with the total value of the transactions reaching US$ 3.8 billion; on a global scale, only New York, LA, and London saw more luxury homes sold – 244 sales, 225 and 223 respectively. The average sales price during Q2 stood at US$ 16.5 million, while average transacted prices were at around US$ 1,880 per sq ft. The consultancy posted that this unprecedented demand has helped to drive apartment and villa prices across Dubai to 15% and 46%, respectively, during the period.

All the country’s banks and finance companies have been requested  by the UAE Central Bank to outline the measures they have taken to reduce the burden of higher interest rates  on home loans for UAE citizens. This followed a study conducted by the watchdog, and after consultations through the UAE Banks Federation, on the impact of high-interest rates on the assets, investments and customers of banks. For customers, with a monthly income of US$ 10.9k, (AED 40k) or more, banks are permitted to exceed the rate of deduction from the salary specified in the regulations, currently set at 50%, up to a maximum of 60%, provided that the financial institution bears the remaining uncovered interest. Banks are permitted to allow customers, with a monthly income of less than US$ 10.9k, to extend the repayment tenor to cover the increase in interest rates, up to a maximum of thirty years, while maintaining the percentage of deduction from salary or income at 50% as is currently in force, provided that banks bear the remaining uncovered interest as a result of the increase in interest rates. The UAE Central Bank kept its benchmark borrowing rate, its base rate for the overnight deposit facility, at 5.15%.

Business activity in UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to strengthen in June, as new order growth hit a four-year high in June, marking the most pronounced improvement since June 2019. The June index climbed 1.4, on the month, to 56.9, and the health of the non-oil private sector has now improved in each of the past thirty-one survey periods. New business also improved, hitting a four-year high, driven by an increase in new orders from abroad that was fuelled by stronger customer demand. There was a marked improvement in job creation that has seen fourteen consecutive rises. Despite a ramping up of activity in June, work backlogs continue to rise, along with an expansion of purchasing activity. NBD’s latest forecast sees Dubai’s non-oil economy topping 5%.

Notwithstanding what is going on in the rest of the world, the UAE is expected to post stronger growth going into H2, supported by progressive government initiatives and a resilient local economy during times of a global weakening economy and geopolitical turbulence. Last month, the IMF noted that “the UAE is poised for positive economic growth as it is projected to achieve a 3.6% increase in its gross domestic product this year, driven by robust domestic activity.” Although not reaching 2022 heights, with 7.9% growth, it will still be hovering around an impressive 4.0% level, driven by sustained tourism activity, robust local demand, a booming realty market and higher capital expenditure.

Last year, the country’s FDI sector rose 10% to a record US$ 23 billion, according to the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2023, which saw the UAE move up six places to become the sixteenth largest FDI recipient in the world. The UAE accounted for 61% of the total investments in the GCC, as it received 997 greenfield projects, (84% higher on the year), making it the fourth-largest recipient of projects globally after the US, UK and India. HH Sheikh Mohammed posted, “we express our appreciation to all regulatory, legislative and service entities who contributed to strengthening the position of the UAE as one of the best international investment hubs,” and “our aim during the coming year is to achieve more historic milestones.” Globally, FDI declined by 12% to $1.3 trillion in 2022 after a steep drop in 2020 and a strong rebound in 2021. The slowdown was driven by global crises, including the war in Ukraine, high food/energy prices, and mounting debt pressures. Outward FDI rose by 10% on the year to US$ 25 billion and placed the UAE fifteenth globally – up five places from 2021.

Palms Sports has invested US$ 81 million to purchase Securiguard Middle East, a specialised firm offering security services across diverse sectors. The regional sports management company and the largest mass jiu-jitsu training provider in the world and a subsidiary of International Holding Company PJSC (IHC), made the purchase as part of its strategy of diversifying its current portfolio by entering the comprehensive security solutions field. Since its inception in 2001, Securiguard Middle East has built up its business and it now employs 13k staff and has a 150-vehicle fleet.

Last year, the world’s biggest international airline must have had the world’s largest number of job applications – at 2.7 million. Maybe this year could be higher as Emirates is planning a “mammoth” worldwide recruitment drive to fill positions in at least one hundred and eighty roles, including cabin crew, pilots, engineers, IT professionals and customer service agents at both Emirates and dnata. The airline confirmed “we are using the latest technologies such as digital assessments, artificial intelligence and other top-notch recruitment systems to shortlist, select and respond to candidates in the most efficient and effective ways.”  Last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2023, the Group had over 102k employees – a 20.2% increase on the twelve months. The airline has recovered well post-Covid and will add further capacity with the delivery of new Airbus A350s, starting in mid-2024, and Boeing 777X widebodies from 2025 onwards and is quickly ramping up operations and growing its workforce as it forecasts growth amid a “buoyant travel market” and an “optimistic outlook overall.”

This week, the UAE Cabinet on Tuesday announced the establishment of a new ministry – the Ministry of Investment – to support the country’s business objectives, investment policies and promote its world-class infrastructure to further attract investments in various sectors. It will be responsible for the general investment policies in coordination with the relevant authorities, as well for the preparation of strategies, legislation, plans, projects and national programmes to promote the investment environment in the UAE and enhance its competitiveness. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid commented that “the UAE is a global financial hub trusted by thousands of financial institutions and millions of investors around the world. Our goal is to maintain this confidence.” This new initiative can only enhance UAE’s current position as the leading nation in the MENA in the Kearney 2023 Foreign Direct Investment Index.

According to data released by Numbeo, Dubai has been placed fifth in their ranking of safest cities in the world. The global provider of data on economic, social and safety areas noted that, in H1, Abu Dhabi and Ajman were placed at number one and number two, with Doha and Taipei coming in at third and fourth positions, respectively. Ranked eighth, Muscat was the only other city across the region to be featured in the top 10. Numbeo releases data and rankings of hundreds of cities on a yearly and half-yearly basis on a number of topics, including quality of life, crime, healthcare, pollution and traffic.

In a ten-year franchisee agreement with JD Sports Fashion Plc, Dubai retailer GMG will open around fifty ME stores, mainly in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt. This deal is part of the UK-based global sports fashion retailer’ s strategy to open up to three hundred new stores each year, over the next five years, in its continued expansion into virgin markets. It will also enable the franchisor to deliver on the rollout of its ‘JD Brand First’ and take advantage of the increasing global awareness on health and wellness, driving strong growth in the athletic leisure market in the ME. A study by Data Bridge expects the regional sports apparel market, growing at a CAGR of 4.8%, to be worth in the region of US$ 23.19 billion by 2029. Local consumers will benefit from exclusive access to the latest styles from some of the world’s largest brands including Nike, Adidas, New Balance, and Under Armour.

In H1, DMCC added a further 1,456 new member companies to its business district, bringing its total number of companies to over 23k. It also accounts for 11% of all Dubai’s FDI. During the period, the government authority hosted 187 webinars and physical events, attracting over 17.9k attendees, and had successful road shows in India (Mumbai, Surat and Jaipur) and China (in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing). DMCC continued to facilitate trade across a wide range of important commodities, including gold, diamonds, precious metals and stones as well as agricultural produce such as tea and coffee, supporting the advancement of the global commodities market and cementing the position of Dubai as a leading hub for commodities trade.

Emaar The Economic City has sold an undeveloped parcel of industrial land for US$ 98 million to a group of buyers, including a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund to create an industrial logistics hub. The Dubai-based developer of the King Abdullah Economic City will begin recognising the revenue impact from the deal from Q3. In 2021, PIF, the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, acquired a 25% stake in Emaar The Economic City to become a major shareholder.

With the local economy now almost at pre-Covid levels – at 98% – there is no surprise that the DFM has followed suit to become one of the best performing global bourses, as total trading volume in June rose 29.8% to reach 7.4 billion shares. Last month, the top three gainers were Ekttitab Holding Company, Ithmar Holding and Takaful Emarat Insurance, posting monthly increases of 194.4%, 101.3% and 68.3% respectively. The three top ‘losers’ in the month were Arabian Scandinavian Company, declining 15.0%, Dubai Refreshment Company (down 10.6%) and Dubai Insurance companies, 8.8% lower.

Latest data confirmed that brokerage companies added almost 27k new investor accounts in H1, with the DFM noting a significant momentum since the announced listing of ten governmental and semi-governmental companies; this figure represented a 48.0% hike in the first five months of the year. March was the busiest month with 6.6k new accounts added, followed by June’s 5.3k.

The DFM opened on Monday, 03 July 2023, 337 points (10.0%) higher the previous five weeks, gained a further 170 points (4.5%) to close the week on 3,962, by 07 July 2023. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.13 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.08 to close on US$ 1.83 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.71, US$ 4.05, US$ 1.49, and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.73, US$ 4.35, US$ 1.50 and US$ 0.43. On 07 July trading was at 298 million shares, with a value of US$ 116 million, compared to 411 million shares, with a value of US$ 116 million, on 26 June 2023.

By Friday, 07 July 2023, Brent, US$ 3.85 lower (2.6%) the previous forthright, gained US$ 3.86 (5.2%) to close on US$ 78.29.  Gold, US$ 44 (2.2%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 3 (0.2%) to US$ 1,931 on 07 July 2023.  

Prior to the eighth OPEC International Seminar in Vienna this week, OPEC confirmed that, in a bid to increase its number of members, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei and Mexico have been consulted to join the bloc. All four countries have been in solidarity with the organisation since 2017, and that “they have gone through qualitative challenges during the collapse of the markets and the pandemic in 2020, and therefore all of these countries have the common goal that is in the interest of stabilising the oil markets”.

Oil prices rallied on Monday after Saudi Arabia confirmed that it would extend its voluntary output cut of one million bpd for another month until August; this will see the Kingdom’s production output at nine million bpd – and there is every chance that this could continue until the end of 2023, with the Opec+ alliance of twenty oil-producing countries planning to stick to its existing output cuts, of 3.66 million bpd,  until the end of 2024. Q2 saw the fourth consecutive quarterly loss, attributable to a slowing economy, leading to a fall in oil demand and Russian crude supply remaining steady despite Western sanctions. At the same time, the US Department of Energy is to buy twelve million barrels week, as part of a drive to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

There are conflicting reports on the state of UK energy prices, with the UK government indicating that energy prices could fall by an average US$ 545 from this month whilst the International Energy Agency point to a spike in energy prices later in the year, more so if the Chinese economy strengthens quicker than expected and there is a harsh winter – if this were to happen, governments would have to step in and subsidise bills again. Despite a marked bounce back in the first four months of the year, the Chinese economy has slowed down, with S&P Global noting that “the risk is that its recovery loses more steam amid weak confidence among consumers and in the housing market”. Nevertheless, UK energy prices – at an estimated US$ 2.53k for a typical household – are still much higher than the pre-pandemic norm, with Centrica, which owns British Gas, warning high prices will remain for longer than initially expected.

IATA reported that May global air traffic recovered to 96.1% of pre-pandemic levels, and that ME airlines performed best by fully recovering their international passenger traffic levels, which reached 17.2% above 2019’s performance, as routes between the ME and other regions have had a surge in traffic. Airlines in the ME are stepping up operations, boosting workforces and adding capacity to meet the global surge in travel demand that has continued unabated, despite inflationary pressures and fears of an economic recession. Global demand for air cargo was 5.2% lower than the return in May 2022, due to challenging trade conditions worldwide, although capacity was 14.5% higher, on the year, mainly attributable to increased belly capacity because of the increase in passenger travel; it is also 5.9% above May 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels. IATA is expecting an improvement in H2 if – and when – inflation moderates and that interest rates do not travel too much higher.

It is estimated that since the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been more than one hundred applications to drill for new oil and gas in the North Sea. It seems that the UK continues to defy those international climate warnings that show that there should be no new projects if there is to be a chance of keeping global temperature rises under 1.5C and advise that all fossil fuel projects should be closed down, not expanded. Indicators show that the Rosebank field in the North Sea, which has the potential to produce five hundred million barrels of oil, could be approved by the government within weeks. This despite the Sunak government commitment to reach net zero by 2025 but also posting that “the transition to cleaner energy cannot happen overnight and we will continue to need oil and gas over the coming decades, as recognised by the independent Climate Change Committee”.

Tesla reported that in Q2, it delivered a record number of vehicles – at 466.1k, 10% higher on the quarter and 83% on the year – topping market estimates, helped by factors such as price cuts and US federal credits; the figures were higher than the market’s 445k expectation. Of that total, 446.9k were Model 3 compact cars and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, as well as 19.2k of its Model S and Model X premium vehicles.  Despite strong competition from market leader, BYT, Tesla expects to hit record sales in China – its second biggest market after the US. There is no doubt that all players in the EV market will have to consider cutting margins as international car makers start to ramp up production – and Tesla will probably lead the pack by prioritising sales growth ahead of profit in a weak economy and rising competition. It has since increased discounts across all of its line-ups, in a move seen to reduce inventory, while making all of its Model 3s eligible for full federal credits of US$ 7.5k starting in June in the US.

Watchfinder, a leading pre-owned dealer, has posted that the number of sophisticated fake watches is rising, with Rolex replicas accounting for about 50% of the total. Last year, the Swiss watch designer began a certified pre-owned programme that authenticates used watches sold through authorised dealers. It also estimates that as many as 10% of the watches received from sellers last year were determined to be fakes and noted that fakes are becoming more sophisticated and more difficult to spot. The Swiss retailer said that in the past it could identify 80% of fake watches on sight – now that figure is at 20%. There is no doubt that this has become a growing problem in the US$ 27.3 billion secondary watch market, with some fakes fooling the most knowledgeable experts.

The latestBloomberg Billionaires Index noted that the wealth of all the five hundred richest people increased by US$ 852 billion in H1, driven by a robust stock market rally, (with the S&P 500 up 16% and Nasdaq 100 by 39%), which in 2022 had been impacted by factors such as the war in Ukraine, surging interest rates and a crisis in regional banks. It is estimated that each of the billionaires made a daily average of US$ 14 million. Elon Musk, the richest person on the globe, saw his wealth boosted by U$ 95.6 billion, the most by anyone, whilst India’s Gautam Adani’s net worth sank the most in the same period, losing $60.2 billion to end up 21st in the index.As on 05 July, Musk’s wealth stood at US$ 247 billion, Bernard Arnault (US$ 199 billion), Jeff Bezos (US$ 155 billion), Bill Gates (US$ 134 billion), Larry Ellison (US$ 132 billion), Steve Balmer (US$ 117 billion), Warren Buffet (US$ 115 billion), Larry Page (US$ 110 billion), Mark Zuckerberg (US$ 104 billion), and Sergey Brin (US$ 104 billion).

With federal criminal investigations still ongoing, PwC Australia’s internal investigation has concluded a “failure of leadership” led to the scandal that involved a senior partner using secret information about government plans to tax multinational companies, working out a way to get around them and selling the plan to those companies, making millions of dollars in fees. Consequently, the disgraced firm, which had “earned” US$ 334 million in fees over the previous two years, has named, shamed and booted eight senior partners linked to the use of confidential Treasury briefings. They include former CEO Tom Seymour, former chief risk officer Sean Gregory, along with Peter Konidaris and tax partner Eddy Moussa whose actions “failed to meet their professional responsibilities”. For others, such as Richard Gregg, the firm has given them notice of the findings against them and a process has started to remove them from the partnership. There are around fifty more names, noted in emails released by the Senate, who had contact with the confidential information, and although they may not be terminated by PwC, it must be noted that there are ongoing federal criminal investigations into the scandal.

It would be difficult not to take on board what Glen Unicomb, a former investigator for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, has stated that he thinks the accounting firms’ business model presents a conflict of interest after many of them, over the years, have expanded into advisory and consultancy work, not just auditing. The ex-corporate regulator believes the “big four” accounting firms — PwC, Deloitte, EY and KPMG — risked being exposed to pressure to approve reports to protect lucrative advisory relationships. He has called the major accounting firms, hired to audit and approve sensitive company reports, to be brought before the financial services royal commission to prove their independence. In the past, audit work was the bread and butter for these firms but these days a great proportion of their revenue comes from their advisory and consulting services. He mentioned the possibility that accounting firms could “succumb to pushback” from clients particularly if a report was part of reporting to a regulator. Following the sordid PwC scandal, a possible government enquiry – or even a Royal Commission – will take place and that being the case the calls for a separation between audit/ taxation/advisory will become louder.

Robert Higgins, owner of two precious metals companies – Argent Asset Group and First State Depository Company – has been ordered by a US court to pay US$ 146 million after more than 500k American Silver Eagle coins went missing. He had been accused of running a “fraudulent and deceptive scheme” and had allegedly promised investors to store the coins for them; however, when investigators entered vaults that were meant to hold the coins, nothing was found except IOU slips. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said both companies had run “fraudulent silver leasing programmes” from 2014 to 2022, and that, through the schemes, the companies “solicited and misappropriated at least US$ 7 million in funds and silver from at least two hundred customers. Each American Eagle coin contains at least one troy ounce of 99.9% pure silver, with its weight and purity guaranteed by the US government.

Indicating that it was planning to restrict exports of certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment on national security grounds – and not because of US pressure – the Dutch government announced that from 01 September, the export of “certain advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment” would have to be authorised. ASML, the country’s largest company and the world’s largest and most advanced chip equipment maker, noted that it would “continue to comply with applicable export regulations, including Dutch, EU and US regulations”. The Chinese administration has retorted that the decision was “not in the interests of any party” and would impact chip production and supply chains, adding that China opposed the US’s “abuse of export controls” and its “use of various pretexts to win over and coerce other countries into imposing a technological blockade against China”. Both superpowers are aware that whoever controls the supply chains – the network of companies and countries that make the chips – holds the key to being an unrivalled superpower. It is expected that the industry will double to be worth US$ 1 trillion by 2030.

It will not be unknown to some individuals and companies to hear of bank accounts being closed for nefarious reasons – or in some cases none. Now it seems that in the UK, Brexiteer Nigel Farage has had his account closed for what he claims to be a case of “serious political persecution” from an anti-Brexit banking industry. Even the Sunak administration has been brought into the argument, with the Culture Secretary, Lucy Frazer, voicing her concern that banks may be closing customer accounts for political reasons, and it is something banks “should be thinking about carefully”. Late last year, the government announced a review into payment services regulations, including the practice of firms apparently closing down the accounts of people or businesses that hold views the lender does not agree with. Mr Farage said he was told by his bank that closing his accounts was a “commercial decision”, and that he approached seven other banks to open personal and business accounts and was turned down by all of them.

Oxford Economic has noted that manufacturing in the eurozone has contracted faster than initially thought, attributable to persistent policy tightening by the ECB. This downturn is echoed around the world, as Asian factory activity, although nudging slightly higher in China, (with the Caixin/S&P PMI at 50.5), is contracting in Japan, (where the Jibun Bank PMI fell back to 49.8), and South Korea, (where the PMI at 47.8 recorded its twelfth consecutive monthly decline), as the continent’s economic recovery struggles to maintain momentum. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia. The latest IMF figures showed Asian growth last year at 3.8%, with forecasts of 4.6% this year and 4.4% in 2024 but is heavily reliant on how China performs. Whatever the Asian manufacturing does – good or bad – it is heavily reliant on the strength of China’s economy, which saw growth rebound in the first quarter but subsequently falling short of expectations.

Which country became the first in the world to consider and impose a tax on the greenhouse gases produced by the likes of cattle and sheep? The answer is New Zealand that will see farmers paying for agricultural emissions in some form by 2025, with the farming industry accounting for about 50% of all the country’s emissions. This week, it has another first to its credit – a ban on thin plastic bags, typically used to hold fruit or vegetables – another step in the country’s ongoing fight against single-use plastics after take home plastic bags were banned in 2019. The government estimates that more than one billion plastic bags had been saved since the ban on thicker bags took effect, and this latest move will prevent the usage of 150 million plastic bags.

On Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian economy was performing better than expected – with its GDP expected to rise by 2.2% this year, whilst consumer price inflation may not rise above 5% in annual terms. The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to grow 0.7%this year, whilst analysts, polled by Reuters at the end of June, saw GDP growth of 1.2% and inflation at 5.7% this year. Russia’s economy contracted 2.1% in 2022, as the Western allies imposed sweeping sanctions against Moscow over its military campaign in Ukraine. To assist the faltering economy there has been a strategy of pumping cash into it, as can be seen from reports that public spending was 26.5% higher year-on-year in the first five months of 2023. Although Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reiterates that the country’s budget deficit this year would be no more than 2%, not many agree with him including the IMF expecting to see a sharply wider 2023 budget deficit.

There are reports that Shell is still dealing with Russia a year after it had apparently pledged to withdraw from its energy market. According to campaign group Global Witness, the petro giant was involved in about 12% of Russia’s shipborne gas exports in 2022, mainly because of “long-term contractual commitments” that it considers not to violate laws or sanctions. It claims that the latest shipment, on 09 May, of 160k cu mt of LNG left the port of Sabetta, on the Yamal peninsula in Russia’s far north, was the eighth to leave that location this year. In March 2022, just days after the Ukraine invasion, Shell apologised for buying a cargo of Russian oil and said it intended to withdraw from Russian oil and gas. Although it has stopped buying Russian oil, has sold its service stations and other businesses in Russia, as well as ending its JVs with the state energy giant Gazprom, it still honours the contract with the Russian LNG company Novatek, which obliges it to buy 900k tonnes a year from Yamal until the 2030s; a spokesman commented that “Shell has stopped buying Russian LNG on the spot market, but still has some long-term contractual commitments. This is in full compliance with sanctions, applicable laws and regulations of the countries in which we operate”. Global Witness also reported that TotalEnergies is a minority shareholder in the Yamal project and was also a major trader in Russian LNG.

Other international companies are still present and doing business in Russia, including US consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble, drinks maker Pernod Ricard and Unilever, the maker of Dove soap and Cornetto ice cream. The campaign group, the Moral Rating Agency, has estimated that Unilever is contributing US$ 736 million to the Russian economy annually, accusing the firm of facilitating Russia’s invasion. It also added that Unilever’s production facilities in Russia continues to manufacture and sell most of its original goods in the country. The multinational has claimed that it had stopped exports and imports to and from Russia and ceased advertising there but was only selling “essential” products in the country, including everyday food and hygiene products; last year, the company confirmed that the country accounted for 1.4% of its annual turnover. The company, which employs around 3k people in Russia, said that if it were to abandon its brands in Russia, “they would be appropriated – and then operated – by the Russian state”. It also added it had been unable to find a way to sell the business that “avoids the Russian state potentially gaining further benefit, and which safeguards our people”. If other companies can abandon Russia, when will Unilever be able to no longer sell One More Cornetto?