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Make It Happen!                                                                27 March 2026

Dubai real estate reached US$ 13.8 billion in Ramadan 2026, as demand continues to defy conflict, driving 29.7% value growth, with transactions up by 5.6% to 15.20k.

This week, Binghatti Holding confirmed that, despite the current crisis, its construction operations remain uninterrupted and that cancellation rates remain at less than 1.0%, in line with historic trends. It has also manged to achieve weekly sales of over US$ 150 million – little change from previous monthly returns. It does seem that there has been no major distressed selling or price drop, due to the regional conflict. Its current development portfolio currently includes more than 40k units, including Downtown, Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle, and Meydan, as well as flagship branded residences, developed in collaboration with luxury partners Bugatti, Mercedes-Benz, and Jacob & Co. The developer added that almost 90% of its units scheduled for handover in 2026 are fully sold.

Despite the current crisis, it appears that the Dubai property market continues to tick over but at a slightly slower pace. This week, a luxury off-plan apartment, located within the Solaya 1, 2, 3 development in Jumeirah 1, has been sold for US$ 23 million. With the apartment encompassing some 11.57k sq ft, its average sq ft price is US$ 1.99k. Earlier in the month, an apartment, located in Jumeirah 2, within the Aman Residences Dubai development, sold for US$ 115 million – becoming the third most expensive apartment ever sold in the emirate. The six-bedroom residence, with eight parking spaces, encompasses 31.2k sq ft, equating to US$ 3.69k per sq ft.

Such transactions show that the upper end of the market is still flourishing and continues to follow the growth trends of 2025. It seems that global high-net-worth individuals are still being attracted by the emirate’s investment environment, regulatory framework and tax advantages. Last year, there was a 40.8% increase in luxury property transactions, to 6.67k, with a 44.8% surge in values to US$ 27.06 billion.

Transaction activity also highlights continued liquidity. In the first seventeen days of the crisis, that is between 28 February and 16 March, Dubai recorded 6,05k residential transactions worth US$ 5.50 billion, with about 63% of that total registered in the off-plan segment. Activity in the ready market remained selective, largely driven by end-users and income-focused investors more interested in rent-ready apartments rather than speculative purchases.

After years of building a real estate portfolio, and a market name in Europe, Futura EDGE  chose Dubai for its next market move; it is set to launch Oak Yard Residences in Jumeirah Village Circle. The developer has operated in Europe, since 2009 and has delivered over three million sq mt of residential and commercial real estate in countries such as the UK, Germany and Spain, since then. Its initial entrée into the local market is a nineteen-floor, one hundred and ninety apartment project, in JVC District 10, slated for completion later this year. It will boast the largest gymnasium in JVC, an outdoor yoga area, both a traditional Finnish and infrared sauna, a swimming pool, BBQ facilities, and over one thousand sq mt of outdoor space. Each unit includes a private terrace, with premium Italian and German interior finishes. Futura EDGE’s next project, located on Dubai Islands, will be launched in May.

Despite the crisis starting on 28 February, the emirate posted a healthy 12.0% Q1 growth in the construction sector, with 10.78k building permits being issued by Dubai Municipality, allied with a marked rise in total built-up area, 48.0% higher on the year, at 3.9 million sq mt; the expansion covered all sectors including residential, commercial, and service-related projects, and reflected continued confidence in the sector. The municipality said it will continue advancing construction frameworks through technology adoption and updated regulations, as Dubai targets long-term population growth and infrastructure expansion.

Tomorrow, 28 March, will see the running of the Dubai World Cup at the Meydan racecourse. This year’s event will feature some one hundred and one horses, from sixteen countries, in nine races, with a total prize money of US$ 30.5 million. The main race, the last on the card, will be the thirtieth running of the Dubai World Cup, sponsored by Emirates Airline, with a US$ 12 million purse. Two horses to watch out for will be number one, Forever Young, and number nine, the Doug Watson trained Top Leader with Pat Dobbs on board.

Any private school that wants to reopen campuses, for in-person learning, before the 03 April deadline, has been advised that it will have to complete a formal request, to the Knowledge and Human Development Authority, with clear justification including what had been done to ensure the safety and wellbeing of students and staff. The Ministry of Education will decide on a case-by-case basis and will study factors such as emergency lockdown frameworks and transport contingencies, before deciding. All private schools will have to provide hybrid learning to support those who wish to continue online classes.

Between 28 February and 18 March, the UAE’s Ministry of Economy and Tourism conducted 8.17k inspections, issued seven hundred and twenty-nine warnings and two hundred and sixteen penalties, with fines ranging from US$ 545 to US$ 54.5k. The inspections, which became more pronounced because of the crisis and the Holy month of Ramadan, were carried out to ensure that traders and sales outlets adhered to consumer protection policies, applied them effectively, and provided a safe and fair shopping environment for all consumers. The various Economic Development Departments utilise electronic price monitoring systems that allow for direct and real-time price tracking. Over this period, the Ministry also received 2.44k consumer complaints, 82% of which related to food price increases.

With it achieving its highest-ever ranking in the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), climbing to seventh place, Dubai is well on its way to becoming one of the top four global financial centres by 2033, in line with Dubai Economic Agenda D33. This year’s performance is the highest ranking ever achieved by a financial centre in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (MEASA), with it being the only centre from the region to feature in the global top twenty. Dubai also retained its classification as one of the ten cities in the world to be a global leader for the industry and ranked the number one financial centre expected to become more significant.

The index by London’s Z/Yen Group assessed one hundred and thirty-seven financial centres using one hundred and thirty-five instrumental factors and insights, gathered from more than thirty-four thousand assessments, completed by financial services professionals worldwide. For the first time, industry respondents ranked Dubai in the top fifteen across all of the evaluated sectors. FinTech, Government and Regulatory, Professional Services and Trading advanced into the top five positions with Finance, Investment Management and Insurance in the top 10, with Banking fourteenth.

Having secured a forward US$ 66 million purchase agreement with Dubai Holding Asset Management, Dubai Residential Reit has expanded its income-generating property portfolio, with the acquisition of fifty-six premium villas in the Garden View Villas community. The new four-bedroom semi-detached villas, which will expand the Reit’s income-generating property portfolio, were recently valued at US$ 71 million – an immediate 7.9% unrealised gain. This latest addition complements the existing two hundred and eighty-five units in the Garden View Villas cluster. It is expected that a further two hundred and twenty villas in Jebel Ali Village will be added by the end of Q2 2026. With both locations increasing their portfolio, incremental income is expected to generate up to US$ 22 million.

In January, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates saw its gold reserves rise by 13.6% to a new record of US$ 11.73 billion. On an annual basis, the Central Bank’s gold reserves increased by more than 75.1%, as demand deposits came in 0.7% lower, on the month, at US$ 341.96 billion. Savings deposits rose 3.3%, on the month, to US$ 112.69 billion, with time deposits, 1.8% higher, at US$ 323.16 billion

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd has increased its total revolving credit capacity to US$ 4.0 billion, having just signed agreements for new long-term, unsecured revolving credit facilities worth US$ 2.8 billion – US$ 2.3 billion in conventional funding and US$ 500k in Shari’a-compliant liquidity. The new arrangement replaces an existing March 2031 facility. In June 2025, DAE secured a US$ 300 million, three-year unsecured term loan from the Bank of China to support general corporate purposes. Emirates NBD and First Abu Dhabi Bank acted as Initial Mandated Lead Arranger, Bookrunner, and Coordinator on the conventional facility, while Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank served as Mandated Lead Arranger on the Shari’a-compliant facility.

Surfbase Dubai, pitching itself as the region’s first indoor surf and wellness hub, has now opened its fourth investment round, with a minimum ticket size of US$ 100k.  It is reported that  the total investment required stands at approximately US$ 13.45 million, with funds earmarked for wave pool systems, thermal wellness facilities, construction and pre-launch operations. The venture will see the combination of wave technology with training facilities, fitness, retail, food and beverage, and community-focused experiences – all under one roof – and would be a welcome addition to Dubai’s recreational facilities.

Ansari Financial Services’ shareholders approved its Board’s recommendation to distribute a total cash dividend of US$ 81 million (US$ 0.019 per share), equating to 74% of the Group’s net profit after tax, for the 2025 financial year. The approved dividend includes a final dividend of US$ 40 million for H2, following an equivalent payout for H2 2025.

At its AGM, Emaar shareholders approved a dividend distribution of 100% of capital, amounting to a total of US$ 2.40 billion. Its impressive 2025 financial results saw growth across the board – property sales, 16% higher to a record US$ 21.91 billion, with total revenue, EBITDA and net profit before tax registering US$ 13.51 billion, US$ 6.98 billion and US$ 7.00 billion respectively.

Attended by an 85% quorum at its AGM, Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation PJSC (Empower), approved its Board’s proposal to distribute H2 cash dividends of US$ 119 million (US$ 0.0119 per share equivalent to 43.75% of the company’s paid-up capital). The approved dividends will be distributed in accordance with Empower’s dividend distribution policy. Last year, it produced record revenues and net profits of US$ 932 million and US$ 274 million, whilst EBITDA increased to US$ 500 million.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 23 March on 5,550 points, and having gained one hundred and twenty-four points (2.3%), the previous week, shed thirty-nine points (0.7%), to close the shortened week on 5,511 points, by 27 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.21 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.04 to close on US$ 3.30 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.73, US$ 7.51, US$ 2.00 and US$ 0.39, and closed on 27 March at US$ 0.72, US$ 7.52, US$ 2.05 and US$ 0.38. On 27 March, trading was at one hundred and eighty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety-two million, compared to five hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ six hundred and sixty million on 18 March.

By 27 March 2026, Brent, US$ 43.63 (63.7%) higher the previous five weeks, gained US$ 1.98, (1.8%), to close on US$ 114.11. Gold, US$ 679 (13.1%) lower the previous three weeks, shed US$ 2 (0%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,502 on 27 March. Silver was trading at US$ 69.94 – US$ 1.91 (1.8%) higher on the week.

Following the release of stockpiled oil earlier in the month, which impacted 20% of overall stocks, the International Energy Agency continues to consult with Asian and European governments on whether to repeat the exercise “if necessary” due to the Iran war. Its Executive Director Fatih Birol, noted, on Monday, that “if it is necessary, of course, we will do it. We look at the conditions, we will analyse, assess the markets and discuss with our member countries”. He added that “a stock release will help to comfort the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain in the economy”. This crisis has taken eleven million bpd from global supply and is probably why the IEA’s Executive Director commented that it was worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s put together and that “the single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait”.

In 2024, X Corp, the parent company of Elon Musk’s X filed a lawsuit against a group of advertisers and major companies, including the likes of food giants Unilever and Mars, renewable energy firm Orsted and the World Federation of Advertisers, for illegally boycotting his media platform. The lawsuit claimed the group of advertisers had acted against their own economic self-interest to conspire against the platform – saying this violated US antitrust laws designed to promote fair competition between companies. Yesterday, 26 March, a US District Judge said the company had failed to show it had suffered any harm under federal competition laws and duly dismissed the case. Elon Musk had acquired Twitter, (X’s former name), in 2022 and within the first twelve months, advertising revenue had fallen by more than 50%, as some firms paused or reduced their promotions on the site.

The Bank of Korea posted that its 2025 net income surged 104% on the year, mainly attributable to increased gains from foreign currency assets, a weaker Korean currency and higher securities prices, as its net income posted a record US$ 10.19 billion – well above the previous 2021 record of US$ 5.22 billion.

The first two months of the year saw China’s industrial profits grow at a faster pace on the year. China’s industrial enterprises, with an annual revenue of at least US$ 2.89 million, witnessed their total profits jumping 15.2% to US$ 147.57 billion – supported by the strengthening of equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors; last year, industrial profits only nudged 0.6% higher, which included a 5.3% hike in December alone.

Monday saw the greenback nudging higher, as the market saw latest developments curbing risk appetite whilst raising demand for safe-haven assets, with the dollar climbing on Monday, as escalating retaliatory threats in the ME conflict curbed risk appetite and lifted demand for safe-haven assets. The Ozie dollar took a hit when equities were sold off across Asia, as did Japan, where it was reported that the government was ready to take action to counter foreign-exchange volatility, as the yen edged lower. By the start of the week, the euro, yen, AUD and sterling were all trading lower by 0.16% to US$ 1.1552, 0.14% to US$ 159.45, 0.43% to US$ 1.6993 and 0.06% to 1.3331. There is a feeling that the AUD could take the biggest hit if the markets price a US tightening cycle, with the USD surging, compared to most other currencies.

Following the US President’s weekend announcement of a halt to strikes on Iranian power plants, early Monday trading resulted in oil prices falling by as much as 13%. The previous week had witnessed volatile trading which continued into the current week, with the main focus being on the Strait of Hormuz and whether it can be reopened safely to shipping. Many are already aware that, in normal circumstances, it is used to transport 20% of the global energy supply. However, it should be noted this part of the world is also a vital conduit for products such as fertilisers and helium.

Blaming a decline in its Fortnite on-line game, Epic Games posted that it would be laying off more than 1k employees; chief executive Tim Sweeney said that, since the start of 2025, the company had been “spending significantly more than we’re making” and needed to “make major cuts to keep the company funded”. He thought that the staff reduction, along with savings of a further US$ 500k across other cost centres, would put the company “in a more stable place”. Furthermore, he added it was also facing both industry-wide challenges such as slowed growth, weakened spending and increased competition for user engagement from other media.

The Indian cabinet has approved a US$ 3.06 billion investment plan in the country’s aviation ecosystem in a bid to boost regional connectivity; this includes plans to develop one hundred new airports, and two hundred heliports, over the next decade to 2036. The programme is known as Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN), or “Let the common citizen of the country fly”. Over the past ten years, the UDAN programme has added six hundred and sixty-three new routes, ninety-five new airports, and an extra 16.2 million passengers; this will deepen regional connectivity and introduce flying to millions of Indians, living in remote and regional areas. The country has become the fastest-growing global aviation market and is hoping that if this trend continues it will inevitably result in job creation and economic growth.

The Australian government has had to introduce emergency measures to double penalties for fuel price gouging, as global supply disruptions in the ME theatre triggered fuel shortages in some rural regions. With the country having to import 84% of its petrol, it was obvious that it would be negatively impacted by the current economic crisis which has seen energy prices surge in recent days. The Albanese government does not seem to agree with the current status quo, with panic buying, doubling demand for fuel in some areas, – and this despite government assurances that the market is well supplied. The proposed Treasury Laws Amendment Bill 2026 would impose fines of up to US$ 69.62 million for false or misleading conduct and cartel behaviour. The legislation follows an investigation by Australia’s competition regulator last week into alleged anti-competitive conduct by major fuel suppliers, including Ampol, BP, Mobil Oil Australia, and Viva Energy, which operates Shell and Liberty fuel stations. Earlier in the week, reports indicated that some one hundred service stations, across Victoria state, ran out of petrol and that in New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, one hundred and sixty-five stations were without diesel and almost three hundred lacked at least one type of gasoline. Regulators have confirmed that petrol and diesel will be released from domestic reserves and that gasoline and diesel quality standards would be temporarily loosened to increase supply.

On Tuesday, and following eight years of discussions, the twenty-seven nation EU bloc and Australia finally signed a trade agreement, with Europe keen to find fresh export markets, now that fractures are appearing with their traditional trading partners including the US, China and the UK. The EU’s move to new markets had earlier been highlighted by previous agreements signed with India, (January 2026), and Indonesia, (September 2025). The latest agreement will result in the removal of over 99% of tariffs, (valued at US$ 1.16 billion) on EU goods exported to Australia. It will also lower tariffs on imports of critical minerals. The European Commission expects the deal to help increase its total exports to Australia by up to 33%, over the next decade to 2036.

Last year, EU firms exported to Australia US$ 42.93 billion of goods, and US$ 32.49 billion of services in 2023. In 2024, the EU was Australia’s third-largest bilateral trading partner and also its sixth-largest export destination, with the EU also being Australia’s second-largest source of foreign investment. When it comes to services, the EU will gain more access for telecoms and financial services, and in agriculture, Australian tariffs will drop to zero for wine, sparkling wine, fruit and vegetables and chocolates from day one and for cheeses over three years. The EU will open two tariff rate quotas of a total of 30.6k tons, for beef, with about 55% of the volume to enter duty-free.

The OECD’s latest forecast brings bad news for the G20 major economies, with the UK economy a stand-out disappointment. (The G20 includes the EU plus nineteen other countries, collectively accounting for 85% of the world’s economic output). The global organisation has downgraded growth forecasts for many of the world’s biggest economies due to the ME conflict. Previously, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development had forecast UK growth at 1.2% before paring it back to 0.7% with their latest report. UK inflation is also predicted to be higher than expected, at 4.0%, (up from 2.8%), in line with other G20 nations. Among G7 countries, (US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan), only the US is predicted to have higher inflation than the UK in the forecast, while only Italy is expected to see weaker growth. 

It warned that a prolonged conflict would not only trigger “significant energy shortages” globally, but also if the sharp rise in fertiliser prices is sustained, crop yields will be impacted, and food prices will soar next year. It is difficult not to disagree with those analysts that if energy prices remain abnormally high, for a relatively long period of time, there will be the inevitable fuel inflation, a significant slowdown in growth and little chance of rate cuts in 2026. However, UK citizens will be able to sleep soundly at night following the Chancellor commenting that the Iran war would affect the UK, but “in an uncertain world we have the right economic plan”. Following several disastrous ‘plans’ and so many U-turns, there is hope that Rachel Reeves is right this time. We await to see whether she can Make It Happen!

Right Here, Right Now                                                20 March 2026

There is no doubt that Dubai’s property market has slowed since the start of the crisis and that is understandable. Under such circumstances, the sector has become more cautious, with buyers and sellers exercising a slower and entering a more measured phase. The supply side remains the same as it was in February, and with steady, but slower, demand mainly across the board, prices have not slumped, as readers of the UK media may have been led to believe – but there has been more of a temporary correction and there has been no huge drop in Dubai property prices.

Skyland Properties has officially broke ground on its debut project – Ashwood Residences – in Jumeirah Village Triangle. The development comprises studios, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartments, with amenities such as a resort-style swimming pool, fully equipped gymnasium, landscaped podium gardens, co-working lounges, children’s play areas, and ground-level retail.

A Cavendish Maxwell report indicates that Dubai is expected to add 9.3k new hotel keys over the next three years, creating thousands of new jobs in the hospitality sector, with 3.4 k rooms and twenty-one new hotels to open in 2026. It is estimated that 1.0 to 1.5 direct jobs are created per hotel room, with luxury hotels often requiring up to 1.5 or more employees per room, and budget hotels, around 0.5 to 1 staff per room; this will see at least 12k new jobs created in the hospitability sector. Dubai’s long-term ambition under its D33 Economic Agenda is still to become one of the world’s top three destinations for both business and leisure travel by 2033.

Dubai welcomed 19.6 million visitors last year with  Western Europe, (21%), retaining its position as the largest source market, followed by the GCC (15.3%), CIS and Eastern Europe (14.8%), South Asia (14.7%)), Mena (11.1%), North and Southeast Asia (9.5%), the Americas (7.1%), Africa (4.6%), and Australasia (2%). Hotel occupancy rose 3.8% on the year to 81.0%, with the highest occupancy rate, at 84.4% in the upper midscale segment. Average daily rates rose 8.7% to US$ 203.

The RTA has approved a project that includes the enhancement of the historic Al Ras walkway, covering twelve km of walkways and five km of cycling tracks. A contract has been awarded for Phase 1 of the project which also includes the rehabilitation of ten artistic spaces in coordination with the Dubai Culture and Arts Authority. This is in line with the government’s strategy of transforming the emirate into a round-year pedestrian-city.

Aster DM Healthcare confirmed that 96.68% of shareholders – along with overwhelming shareholder and creditor approval – had voted in favour of its amalgamation with Quality Care India Limited. Furthermore, the Competition Commission of India and stock exchanges have also cleared the move that will create one of India’s largest hospital networks. A share swap deal before the merger will probably be completed by the end of Q2. The network, spanning nine states and twenty-eight cities, will include thirty-nine hospitals and over 10.62k beds, employing 36.3k staff; it will serve seven million patients. Founder Chairman Azad Moopen’s Aster currently operates twenty hospitals, with 5.45k beds in India, along with clinics, pharmacies and diagnostic centres across five states.

This week, one of India’s largest asset management companies, ICIC Prudential AMC inaugurated its branch in Dubai International Financial Centre. This will serve as a strategic regional hub for the Indian entrant in the MEA region, where it will have closer access with sovereign institutions, family offices, private banks, wealth platforms and distribution partners. Arif Amiri, DIFC’s CEO, noted that its “decision to establish its DIFC branch underscores the strength of Dubai as a global platform for asset and wealth managers seeking proximity to regional capital”.

According to the central bank’s latest forecast, UAE’s 2026 GDP is expected to touch 5.6%, (the same as last year), driven again mainly by the non-oil sector – and this despite the current crisis; it sees the GCC nations growing at 4.8%, with Qatar leading the field with a growth of 6.1%. The GCC upturn is largely attributable to stronger expansion in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, particularly across non-hydrocarbon sectors. It noted that “financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade have remained resilient, supported by ongoing diversification efforts and higher oil production. Tourism and transportation, benefiting from large-scale infrastructure development and expanding connectivity, are also expected to play an increasingly important role in supporting the region’s growth momentum”. Many experts opine that the current crisis could be relatively short-lived. – and this blog shares the same belief. S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the UAE’s ‘AA/A-1+’ sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, underscoring the country’s exceptional fiscal and external strength, even as regional conflict poses short-term economic risks.

The Minister of Economy and Tourism has spoken about the fact that the country has a strong and advanced food security system that does not rely solely on local stockpiles. Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri noted the UAE possesses advanced logistics infrastructure, including world-class ports, multiple shipping routes, alternative transport channels, and an efficient air and land transport network, in addition to modern storage and handling facilities. He added that the country has the ability to handle any disruptions in supply chains without interruptions in markets, always ensuring the availability of essential goods to consumers, including peak seasons and holidays.

The UAE continues to enhance its position as one of the world’s leading centres in the FinTech sector, mainly because of its planned integrated ecosystem that combines advanced digital infrastructure, flexible regulatory frameworks, and the flow of global investments, allied with the local presence of major international players. With these factors, the sector has become a platform for developing innovative financial solutions in areas such as digital payments, digital banking services, embedded finance, and digital assets, with expectations of accelerated market growth in the coming years. Both the Dubai International Financial Centre and Abu Dhabi Global Market serve as two main hubs for the sector’s growth, hosting hundreds of companies operating in FinTech, AI and innovation. There is no doubt that FinTech has grown so rapidly in Dubai, in such a short period of time, that it has become a fundamental pillar within the country’s financial ecosystem, benefiting from an advanced regulatory environment and robust digital infrastructure that supports innovation and attracts investments.

Last year, FinTech startups in the country attracted investments amounting to nearly US$ 265 million, equivalent to 33% of the total funding granted to startups in the country. It is expected that the size of the FinTech market in the country will grow by some 80% to US$ 5.71 billion over the next four years.

It was no surprise to see the 2026 edition of Arabian Travel Market being postponed to 17 – 20 August from its original 04 – 07 May schedule; the venue remains the same – at Dubai World Trade Centre. The decision to reschedule the event, now in its thirty-third edition, has been made to prioritise the safety and well-being of customers, partners and colleagues.

In a bid to strengthen the banking sector and support the wider economy amid global and regional uncertainty, the UAE Central Bank has introduced a wide-ranging financial resilience package. The package is built around five key pillars designed to provide banks with greater liquidity, flexibility and regulatory relief. The measures include:

• banks to be given enhanced access to liquidity, including the ability to draw on reserve balances and access term funding in both AED and USD
• temporary relief on liquidity and funding requirements, allowing lenders more flexibility to continue financing businesses and individuals
• capital buffer requirements will be eased, enabling banks to use excess capital to support lending
• new provisions to allow greater flexibility in managing credit risk, including postponing the classification of certain loans affected by current conditions
• banks are expected to maintain lending and financial support to customers as part of the broader economic response

The Ministry of Finance announced the successful completion of the March 2026 auctions of UAE dirham-denominated Treasury Bonds, the first since start of the regional escalation, with a total issuance size of US$ 300 million – this is part of the TBs scheduled annual 2026 issuance programme. Subscriptions were 4.4 times oversubscribed – a market indicator, confirming investors’ confidence in the UAE and its economy. The auction results were competitively priced with a YTM of 3.73% for the T-Bond tranche, maturing in September 2027, and 3.85% for the T-Bond tranche, maturing in January 2031. The yields achieved represent a comparative tight spread of up to sixteen basis points above comparable U.S. Treasuries at the time of issuance.

The central bank, which already oversees a record-high forex reserves of more than US$ 1.0 trillion, has a monetary base cover ratio of 119%. The overall stock of liquidity held by UAE banks at the CBUAE, combined with their net eligible assets for conventional CBUAE operations, tops US$ 250.0 billion, of which banks’ reserve balances exceed US$ 109 billion.

Majid Al Futtaim posted increases across the board when reporting their 2025 results. Group revenue, EBITDA, net profit excluding valuation gains, and net profit – up 10.0% to US$ 9.78 billion – 6.0% higher, on the year, at US$ 9.78 billion, up 10.0% to US$ 1.39 billion, 48% to the good to US$ 627 million and 41% higher at US$ 981 million. It also registered an 11.0% hike in UAE revenues to US$ 6.0 billion. Other significant returns included a 25% hike in free cash flow to US$ 954 million, a 15% reduction in net debt to US$ 3.24 billion, and a 32% improvement, to 32%, in its net debt to equity ratio. Total assets stood at US$ 19.35 billion. In October 2025, Majid Al Futtaim priced a US$ 500 million ten-year Sukuk. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the Group’s ‘BBB’ credit rating with a stable outlook, highlighting its financial resilience and disciplined capital management. In November 2025, the company issued a new US$ 500 million hybrid bond, whilst simultaneously tendering US$ 590 million of its existing perpetual notes. 

Sector-wise the Group’s:

shopping malls and hotels business   revenue 6.0% higher at US$ 1.31 billion, footfall – 6% higher and a mall occupancy rate of 98%

real estate development arm              revenue rising 33%to US$ 1.58 billion

ecommerce business                           revenue 20.0% higher at US$ 872 million, with 38% and 47% increases in quick commerce and precision media revenues

HyperMax Grocery Retail                   it launched its flagship HyperMax grocery retail brand across Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as SAVA, the first Emirati modern discount retailer

Entertainment                                    revenue was up 9.0% to US$ 518 million largely led by cinemas, with revenue growing 13%. It relaunched VOX’s IMAX theatre in Mall of the Emirates last year

Lifestyle brands                                  revenue was up 14% to US$ 409 million. Majid Al Futtaim expanded its long-standing partnership with Abercrombie & Fitch Co., strengthened its omnichannel reach with new Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister ecommerce platforms in key Gulf markets, and reinforced its position as the partner of choice for global brands with new regional entries such as PacSun and Tartine et Chocolat

Following its restructuring phase, Drake & Scull International reported a 2025 net profit of US$ 13 million, compared to a net profit of US$ 1.0 billion the previous year because of a one-off restructuring gain of just over US$ 1.0 billion. Mainly driven by converting its order book quicker, into recognised income, and accelerated project execution, its annual revenue surged 116% to US$ 61 million. The fact that its Passavant unit registered strong growth, of 83%, in its water and wastewater business helped move the figures higher, as did new projects awarded, worth US$ 112 million, during the year. Whilst total assets dipped 6.0%, on the year, to US$ 166 million, total equity rose 29% to US$ 53 million, supported by retained earnings and an improved capital structure. Cash and bank balances touched US$ 64 million at year end. In 2025, DSI advanced its diversification strategy with the launch of its real estate development arm. Its chairman, Sheikh Theyab bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, summed it all up saying that the company’s 2025 performance reflects a successful transition from restructuring to operational recovery, with a stronger balance sheet and renewed focus on sustainable growth.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 09 March on 5,426 points, and having shed one thousand, two hundred and ninety-seven points (20.3%), the previous four weeks, gained one hundred and twenty-four points (2.3%), to close the shortened week on 5,550 points, by  18 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 1.43 lower the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.21 to close on US$ 3.26 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 7.34, US$ 2.02 and US$ 0.37, and closed on 18 March at US$ 0.73, US$ 7.51, US$ 2.00 and US$ 0.39. On 18 March, trading was at five hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ six hundred and sixty million, compared to three hundred and twenty-five million shares, with a value of US$ four hundred and forty-three million on 18 March.

By 20 March 2026, Brent, US$ 32.38 (47.3%) higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 11.25, (11.2%), to close on US$ 112.13. Gold, US$ 121 (2.3%) lower the previous fortnight, tanked this week losing US$ 558 (11.0%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,504 on 20 March. Silver was trading at US$ 68.03 – US$ 16.26 (19.3%) lower on the week.

From today, and for the next thirty days, sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil at sea have been waived by the Trump administration. This move is an attempt to cool the surging oil prices which have reached triple digit numbers and some 60% higher than pre-crisis prices. It is estimated that this allowance will add some one hundred and forty million barrels of oil to the global inventory and bring some little relief to the energy supply chain. There was concern that if nothing had been done to pull prices lower, it would have a negative impact on US businesses and consumers ahead of the November midterm elections. Earlier in the week, a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law was announced; this move enables foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertiliser, and other goods between US ports for the next sixty days. However, many would argue that these two measures will make little difference to oil prices over the coming weeks.

National Car Parks, struggling under the weight of US$ 468 million of liabilities, including rent rises linked to inflation, has gone into liquidation. PWC has been appointed by the Japanese-backed firm to handle the insolvency process; it is estimated that some six hundred and eighty jobs are at risk. Park24, the co-owner of the car parks operator, said its UK subsidiary had faced “a decline in demand” during the pandemic, and that its recovery in the years since had been “subdued”.

A consortium of lenders, representing holders of more than 60% of Thames Water’s senior debt, has proposed the injection of US$ 4.47 billion of new equity, and up to US$ 8.74 billion in new debt, into the much-troubled company in a bid to secure a rescue deal for UK’s largest water supplier. The utility has commented that “as engagement remains ongoing, there is no certainty that the proposal will be accepted or that it will be finalised in its current form.” The consortium, London & Valley Water, is headed by a group of US hedge funds and dealers in distressed debt, and hope this new debt meets shareholders’ approval. This could be the last rescue deal for Britain’s biggest water utility, and the increased capital injection formed part of a revised proposal submitted to Ofwat, the water industry regulator, earlier in the month. Otherwise, if the funding money is not made available by the end of March, it could result in temporary nationalisation of a utility sinking under a US$ 26.75 billion debt mountain, with Thames Water having to enter a Special Administration Regime.

One of the biggest contributors to the Philippine economy is cash remittances sent by Overseas Filipinos, (OFs), from a variety of countries. In January, it is estimated a 3.5% growth on the year to US$ 3.02 billion – and this despite global economic uncertainties and higher cost-of-living in host countries. The following six countries accounted for 68.6% of January remittances – US, (40.2%), Singapore (7.6%), Saudi Arabia (6.7%), Japan (5.8%), UK (4.6%) and UAE (3.7%). Yesterday, one dirham was buying 16.36 pesos, a sharp depreciation in the Philippine currency, which has come under sustained pressure through March.

The traditional Indian outsourcing model, that garnishes some US$ 300.0 billion for the national economy, is heading into uncertain times over concerns that AI will see hundreds of thousands made redundant. Since 1990, India’s software industry has created millions of white-collar jobs, and a new middle class, which previously was non-existent, that now has strong purchasing power, enough to spend money on living, cars and restaurants. Now the industry has been spooked by the treble whammy of ten of the country’s major listed software companies, seeing 20% knocked off their value, (running into tens of billions of dollars), on the Nifty IT index, allied with the ME crisis, which will see energy prices surging to be followed by inflation moving higher. On top of that, there are some experts who have been warning that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs. Conversely, Infosys says that it expects that generative AI might displace ninety-two million jobs such as front-end developers and testers, but it will create some one hundred and seventy million new jobs for data annotators, AI engineers and AI leads. According to Nasscom, India’s software lobbying group, in 2025, the country’s tech industry moved decisively from AI experimentation to actual deployment. However, AI projects’ revenue was estimated at only US$ 10.0 billion, out of an industry total of US$ 315 billion, and expected to witness only a 6.0% growth this year; there will be a 2.3% hike in the net employee numbers. This industry contributes almost 80% of India’s total services exports, with the US its main market and any decline will badly impact the country’s GDP.

Following his last meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping last October, Donald Trump is looking at delaying his upcoming meeting, scheduled between 31 March – 02 April, for at least a month, noting that it was important that he remained available to oversee the war. Like the US, China has also rejected any connection between the delayed meeting and issues around the Strait of Hormuz, saying “we have noted that the US side has publicly clarified these false reports by the media, stating that the relevant reports are completely wrong, and emphasised that the visit has nothing to do with the issue of the open navigation of the Strait of Hormuz”. However, there is no doubt that China, a major buyer of Iranian energy exports, is displeased with both the US and Israel for their actions to date. Meanwhile, bi-lateral trade talks are ongoing in Paris, involving representatives from the US and China, for negotiations on investments, tariffs and economic sanctions.

Two of Australia’s major energy companies will be seeing new chief executives over the next few months. With Mike Henry leaving his position as chief executive, having held it since 2020, Brandon Craig will take over as BHP’s new supremo. Meanwhile. Elizabeth Westcott has been named as Woodside Energy’s ongoing CEO and managing director; she has been serving as the company’s acting CEO since Meg O’Neill’s departure for BP last December.

Both will receive attractive base salaries along with the usual add-ons. The former will receive an annual base salary of US$ 1.91 million and be offered 10% of his base salary for superannuation, with eligibility for significant bonuses, depending on performance. He could earn up to 3.6 times his base salary, (US$ 6.86 million), from cash and shares — plus have his salary doubled each year if he achieves his performance targets. However, this is still some way off his predecessor’s final ‘realised pay’ of US$ 13.47 million. (The leadership change came one day after a joint copper mining venture between BHP and Rio Tinto was approved by the US Federal Court).

Ms Westcott joined the company in June 2023, having been the chief operating officer at EnergyAustralia, following a twenty-five-year career at ExxonMobil, working in Australia, the UK and Italy. Her ‘fixed annual reward’ will be US$ 1.63 million, which includes base salary, benefits and allowances, statutory minimum superannuation contributions, and directors’ fees. On top of that she will be eligible for a short-term incentive, valued at up to 2.7 times her FAR, (US$ 4.40 million), and a long-term opportunity, valued at up to three times her FAR, (US$ 4.89 million).

For the first time since 2011, over 90% of house resales in all Australian capital cities have returned a profit. Property portal Domain estimates that Sydney – with 97.9% of all residential sales showing profit – has the highest median profit for houses at US$ 532k per sale, whilst Brisbane and Perth both saw 99.5% of residential sales turn in a profit. The report found 97.5% of house resales and 88.3% of home unit resales across Australia saw a profit in H2 2025. The study posted that “Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin recorded lower – though still elevated – profit shares relative to Brisbane and Perth [for units]”, and that “Canberra was the only capital to record an annual decline in the share of profit-making resales, reflecting flatter price momentum”. As expected, the biggest profit margins were seen in Sydney, with the Eastern Suburbs and Northern Beaches leading the way; Eastern Suburbs-North, which includes the suburbs of Paddington, Woollahra, Vaucluse and Bondi, had a median house profit of US$ 1.95 million, followed by Manly at US$ 1.64 million and Chatswood/Lane Cove at US$ 1.66 million. On the other side of the country, the combined Perth suburbs of Cottesloe-Claremont attracted the highest median profit outside of Sydney, at almost US$ 1.4 million.

Such figures should be warning to government planners that the gap between existing owners and aspiring first-time buyers, is widening, and that there is greater barrier for those wanting to enter the market for the first time. The study found that the Australian dream of home ownership is becoming a nightmare for many young Australians. With property resales achieving record profits, actual homeowners have an increased “buffer against rising interest rates and inflation”.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, with its key interest rate in the range of 3.5% – 3.75%. No surprise to see the key driver being a double-digit spike in oil prices since the start of the hostilities in the ME, impacting the global economy and the distinct possibility of a surge in inflation. This will be further bad news for the US President who has made no secret that he wants rates to head south, so that borrowing costs would be reduced, that would drive growth in the country’s economy. The latest move is an indicator that rate cuts are still on the cards but are becoming increasingly unlikely this year, but a lot depends on the affects the war has on the economy – and how long the crisis continues. The Fed has noted that it is “too soon” to know and “really no one does”. The Fed has had to consider many variables in deciding on rates and faces the conundrum of either pushing rates higher, to ease spending, and slow down price rises or reducing rates to boost the economy but normally results in unemployment rising in the desire to boost the economy. Already energy prices have surged to their highest levels since 2024 – and that in itself will see higher prices, as households have less money to spend on other things. The current ‘oil shock’ will inevitably see inflation going higher than the Fed’s December forecast of 2.4%, but its forecasts for growth, at 2.4%, and unemployment – 4.4% – still seem to be valid predictions.

Although it appears that the disgraced Peter Mandelson still believes that his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein was not for personal financial gain, it is hard for him,  to see what he got from being the paedophile’s close friend. Mandelson’s career has been marked by controversy, which resulted in his twice resigning from the Cabinet and being dismissed as the UK  ambassador to the US in 2025. The Machiavellian ‘Dark Prince’ of UK politics was sacked as trade and industry secretary, in December 1998 for accepting an undisclosed, US$ 500k interest-free loan from his fellow Labour minister Geoffrey Robinson.  A year later, he was back in the cabinet but only until January 2001 before he had to resign again from the government following accusations of using his position to influence a passport application for SP Hinduja. In 2004, he quit as an MP to become the EU’s trade commissioner.

His latest troubles come about because of his close relationship with Epstein, which started in 2002. Documents show that the disgraced financier had made payments totalling approximately US$ 75k to Mandelson or his husband, Reinaldo Avila da Silva between 2003 and 2004,and also covered educational fees for his husband. There are also suggestions that Mandelson shared sensitive UK government information with Epstein during the aftermath of the 2008 GFC, including early notice of a mega US$ 668 billion EU bank bailout and lobbying efforts regarding a proposed 50% “super tax” on bankers’ bonuses. Another email suggests Epstein sent US$ 13k to Mandelson’s husband in 2009 to pay for an osteopathy course. Mandelson says he has no record or recollection of receiving the sums and does not know whether the documents are authentic. It is reported that he also made US$ 2.0 million selling his shares in Global Capital before the firm, he founded, collapsed last month.

It has been reported that a friend of Mandelson said that “he has weaknesses. He likes the high life. A lifestyle he can’t afford”. This will be his epitaph.

For the first time, since September 2021, the BoE’s nine-member monetary policy committee voted unanimously – yesterday – in favour of leaving the base rate at 3.75%. However, its governor, Andrew Bailey, warned that it “must respond” with rate rises if the conflict in the ME generates a prolonged energy crisis which in turn will see inflation again moving away from its 2.0% long-standing target. The Bank said that “it stands ready to act as necessary” to keep inflation in line with this target.

Whilst wage growth in the UK still hovers around the 4.0%-mark, Smith & Nephew’s chief executive, Deepak Nath, is about to see his maximum remuneration package surge to a possible US$ 18.73 million under a revised three-year pay policy. It does seem that London-listed MNCs have woken up and now realise that US counterparts are paid markedly more. Under the plans, Mr Nath’s base salary of US$ 1.7m will remain unchanged during the next three-year pay cycle but his annual bonus award will be increased from a maximum of 215% of salary to a maximum of 300%, while his maximum long-term pay will rise from 425% to 800%.

It is estimated that average UK annual energy bills will rise by US$ 442 in July, due to high oil and gas prices driven by the Iranian crisis. Less than three weeks ago, in the early days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, that rise was expected to be US$ 213 – equating to the most expensive typical annual bills last seen in July 2023. The hefty increase is down to energy prices spiking with Brent trading today at US$ 112.30. Higher wholesale costs drive up the price cap, set by the energy regulator Ofgem, every three months.

More dismal news for the failing UK economy, with data from the Office for National Statistics noting that quarterly wage growth, to 31 January, had declined to 3.8% – its lowest level for more than five years, but down 0.4%, on the month, as the jobs market continues to slow. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%.  Undoubtedly, the economies of the UK, along with the rest of the world, are in dire straits, Right Here, Right Now!

What’s Going On?                                                13 March 2026

It was estimated that today, the UAE defence forces had intercepted seven ballistic missiles and twenty-seven drones on 13 March in countering Iranian attacks. The number of interceptions has now reached some two hundred and eighty-five missiles and one thousand five hundred and sixty-seven UAVs. Expats have to be eternally thankful to the Emiratis (accounting for some 8% of the population) who are defending 100% of the population. It is highly unlikely that any other country could come up with such statistics. May God Bless Them!

Last week, a 31.2k sq ft luxury apartment at Aman Residences Dubai was sold off-plan for US$ 115 million – a welcome indicator that, despite the troubles, there is still confidence in the Dubai property market – and in Dubai itself. Data from DXBinteract, the data platform developed by fäm Properties, in partnership with Dubai Land Department, said the transaction put the value at US$ 3.68k per sq ft. Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, noted that “over 70% of transactions are now end-user driven, not speculative. The buyer base is globally diversified. Mortgage activity has doubled in four years.  The regulatory environment has matured. The fundamentals haven’t changed overnight because of regional events”. He added that “the sale of an ultra-luxury unit at this level is particularly relevant in the current circumstances. It underlines the fact that the Dubai real estate market is structurally stronger than it has ever been”.  

Dubai’s property market also recorded the sale of another luxury off-plan apartment for US$ 25 million on Monday. The apartment, located on Palm Jumeirah within the Armani Beach Residences development, spans some 11.52k sq ft, equating to US$ 2.52k per sq ft.

Imtiaz Developments became the first real estate developer to hand over a residential project – Beach Walk by Imtiaz – on Dubai Islands. It is also the first completed development within Imtiaz’s Dubai Islands portfolio, which is collectively valued at over US$ 1.64 billion. It has more than fifteen active developments across Dubai Islands and has recently launched its sixteenth project, Sea Cliff by Imtiaz. Beach Walk is part of the highly successful Beach Walk series by Imtiaz, a collection of developments on Dubai Islands that has achieved strong market demand and is now completely sold out. The series includes Beach Walk 1, Beach Walk 2, Beach Walk 3, Beach Walk 4, and Beach Walk Grande.

2025 was a mega year for Dubai’s luxury property market with impressive increases in value and volume. 6.67k transactions, 40.8% higher on the year, resulted in a 44.8% hike in value to US$ 39.18 billion. The sector’s progress was down to increasing demand from high-net-worth individuals drawn to the emirate’s investor-friendly regulatory framework, favourable tax environment and global lifestyle appeal. These drivers will still remain valid in the future.

Six hundred sq ft of new Grade A commercial office space at DIFC Square has been handed over ahead of schedule. The development consists of three interconnected glass-façade buildings and includes dedicated parking and retail spaces. This was completed within the twenty-four-month design-and-construction timeframe, with DIFC noting that the development was almost fully pre-leased before handover, with pre-leasing levels reaching 98.45%. Several registered companies have secured space in the development, including the Bank of Singapore, Deutsche Bank, Gallagher Insurance, Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, Moody’s and TP ICAP. Some companies are relocating to larger premises within DIFC Square, (thus creating an estimated one hundred sq ft of additional capacity in the centre’s Gate District and Gate Village), while others are expanding their footprint by taking additional space there. This latest development is only part of a future strategy of growth which will result in the delivery of 1.6 million sq ft of commercial space in 2026 and 2027; upcoming projects include DIFC Living, Innovation Two and Immersive Tower.

At a time when it is laying the foundation stone of its first five-star hotel in Dubai, within the Azizi Riviera community in Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Azizi Developments announced a US$ 20.4 billion hospitality investment programme, that will result in one hundred and fifty-one new  hotels, 90% of which will be located in the emirate, across multiple segments; this will add an extra sixty thousand rooms to Dubai’s current portfolio of some 153k. Plans include one hundred four-star hotels, fifty five-star hotels and a single seven-star property. The developments will create an estimated seventy-five thousand new jobs. Its Chairman, Mirwais Azizi, commented that, “Dubai has consistently proven itself to be one of the world’s most stable, forward-looking and opportunity-rich destinations. The emirate’s leadership has built an environment that inspires confidence among investors and developers, enabling bold projects that contribute to its global standing”. The developer is also planning to launch the Azizi Hospitality Academy, an institution designed to train hospitality professionals and support the sector with skilled talent.

According to DLD statistics, last year, Dubai real estate broker commissions hit US$ 3.7 billion as the number of brokers reaches 32.29k, with broker-led deals surging 54% to 96.44k.

In a bid to protect residents and property owners, while preventing overcrowding and informal housing, HH Sheikh Mohammed introduced new legislation, on Wednesday, regulating the management and occupancy of shared housing in the emirate. Law No. (4) of 2026 sets clear rules for permits, leasing, and safety standards, whilst clarifying the rights of landlords and tenants, setting leasing rules, and introducing fines for those who break them. It also includes steps to prevent overcrowding, reduce informal housing, and handle violations of building and land-use rules.  Under the new law, no person or entity can allocate a unit for shared housing without a Dubai Municipality permit, valid for one year. Importantly, it stipulates that only the owner or a licensed establishment can lease the unit and that tenants or other parties are not allowed to sublease any part of it.

The Dubai Ruler also issued Law No 5 of 2026, allowing government entities to contract private companies to deliver some or all government services under agreed terms. Whilst strengthening PPP cooperation, the new law sets rules to ensure outsourcing follows international best practices. The process will be under the watch of the Dubai Department of Finance which will not only oversee the outsourcing of government services but also to establish the procedures governing these contracts.

Following last month’s appointment of Abdulla Bin Damithan as Chairman of the Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation, DP World has appointed Ahmad Yousef Al-Hassan as CEO and MD for the GCC. He joined DP World in 2010 and has held senior roles in Group Treasury and Business Development, as Deputy CFO at London Gateway in the UK and in Hong Kong as CFO for DP World’s Asia Pacific region. His main responsibility will be to oversee an integrated portfolio spanning ports and terminals, economic zones, digital technology and logistics solutions across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and markets in the Upper Gulf. He noted that Jebel Ali Port’s container and general cargo terminals remain fully operational and that “trade is becoming more interconnected and complex than ever, and our priority is to keep cargo moving safely and efficiently for our customers”.

Earlier in the week, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed attended a specially convened Dubai Majlis, with some three hundred business leaders, to discuss strategies to reinforce economic resilience. The meeting, organised by the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism, was part of the Government of Dubai’s commitment to deepening cooperation with the private sector and strengthening coordination across economic sectors. The Crown Prince commented that “we will continue to take all necessary steps to ensure sustainable economic growth and safeguard our development gains, further enhancing Dubai’s competitiveness”.

S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘AA/A-1+’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the UAE with stable outlook. The agency noted that the UAE’s large fiscal and external buffers should provide space for policy manoeuvring during the current adverse geopolitical developments, including disruption in oil production or exports. It also pointed out that, ”our ratings on the UAE remain supported by the government’s strong fiscal and external positions. Our estimate of the exceptional strength of the government’s consolidated net asset position (estimated at 184% of GDP in 2026) provides a significant fiscal external and economic buffer to external shocks. We calculate government liquid assets at about 210% of GDP”, and that ”the UAE’s general government debt is very low (estimated at about 27% of GDP in 2026) and its consolidated fiscal balance has averaged a surplus of 5.6% over 2021-2025”. It also commented that non-oil sectors constitute about 75% of GDP and this enhances the economy’s ability to withstand the volatility of global markets.

The latest Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has seen a deal signed at a meeting with Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s minister of foreign affairs. The CEPA will also open new opportunities for partnership in research and development, innovation, smart mobility, and energy security, as well as financial services and digital transformation. These areas align with the UAE’s vision to build a knowledge and innovation-based economy and support the priorities of both countries under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership framework signed in 2022. In 2025, non-oil trade with Japan topped US$ 20.3 billion, 16.7% higher on the year, with the UAE being Japan’s top trading partner across the MEA, accounting for 39.0% of Japan’s total trade with Arab and African countries. Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, commented that “by removing trade barriers and facilitating increased investment flows, this CEPA will unlock new avenues for our private sectors, fostering lasting partnerships that benefit both countries and contribute to our sustainability goals and shared prosperity.” Since the CEPA’s programme’s launch in September 2021, the UAE has concluded agreements with more than thirty-five nations accounting for some 25% of the global population.

Rumourmongers both in Dubai and the UK media were keen to post that Standard Chartered Bank had announced that it was evacuating its staff from its Dubai office. The bank has had to come out to clarify the situation, noting that the reports were inaccurate, and that a precautionary work-from-home arrangement, put in place last week, had simply been extended. It added that staff continue to operate remotely while maintaining normal services.

Yesterday DP World released its 2025 financial results, with increases across the board. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA, profits and operating cash flow all headed north by 22.4% to US$ 24.4 billion, 18.0% to US$ 6.4 billion, 32.2% to US$ 1.96 billion and by 14.0% to US$ 6.3 billion. Return on Capital Employed rose 1.0% to 9.9%, on the year, reflecting stronger earnings despite continued geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Capex rose over 40% to US$ 3.1 billion to support capacity expansion and productivity enhancements globally. Port capacity increased to 109 million TEUs.

In 2025, Dubai Residential REIT posted robust figures for the year, with revenue 9.0% higher at US$ 531 million and net profit before changes in the fair value of investment property up by 14.5% to US$ 349 million. Portfolio occupancy was at 98.3% and tenant retention at 88.0%. From 2026 onwards, the REIT intends to distribute at least 80% of profit semi-annually before changes in the fair value of investment property, subject to Board approval and in accordance with applicable regulations and the REIT distribution policy. At its first AGM, the Board approved a US$ 150 million cash dividend, equating to US$ 0.0112 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to US$ 300 million; this works out at a gross dividend yield of approximately 7.7% on IPO price, (or US$ 0.0232 per share). Nabil Mohammad Ramadhan, Chairman of the Board of Directors for Dubai Residential REIT, noted that “we remain committed to strong governance, prudent leverage, and balanced capital allocation, while continuing to progress our committed growth pipeline and maintain our distribution policy of paying out at least 80% of our net profit.”

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation PJSC was listed on the DFM in November 2022 and since then has paid bi-annual dividends, totalling US$ 702 million split over three years’ payments of US$ 232 million (2023), US$ 232 million (2024) and US$ 238 million (2025). Last year, it posted a 4.9% annual increase on revenue to US$ 932 million, with profit growing by  10.5% to US$ 274 million.

Amlak Finance posted remarkable turnaround figures in 2025 that showed for the first time in fifteen years, Amlak fully offset its accumulated losses and reported retained earnings at year-end due to its strong financial performance. Net profit after tax came in at US$ 401 million, (greatly helped by the sale of its Ras Al Khor land bank, completed in July 2025, which generated substantial growth with total proceeds of US$ 790 million, resulting in a gain of US$ 583 million); in 2024, the comparative figure was US$ 3 million. The real estate financier posted 2025 total income, at US$ 850 million, compared to US$ 63 million the previous year prior. Operating costs decreased by 8.9% to US$ 25 million. During the year, Amlak settled

obligations with key financier whilst exiting the 2014 Common Terms Agreement, allowing it to settle all dues with financiers ahead of the October 2026 deadline. It also fully settled its financial obligations with six remaining financiers, paying a total of US$ 269 million including profit, with all pledges, securities, and mortgages released as a result. During the year, it divested itself from both of its overseas investments – in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 09 March on 5,917 points, and having shed eight hundred and six points (12.0%), the previous three weeks, lost a further four hundred and ninety-one points (8.3%), to close the week on 5,426 points, by 13 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.68 points lower the previous fortnight, lost US$ 0.75 to close on US$ 3.05 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.78, US$ 8.01, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.38, and closed on 13 March at US$ 0.72, US$ 7.34, US$ 2.02 and US$ 0.37. On 13 March, trading was at three hundred and twenty-five million shares, with a value of US$ four hundred and forty-three million, compared to three hundred and thirty-four million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and thirty-four million on 06 March.

By 3pm London time, 13 March 2026, Brent, US$ 24.19 (5.5%) higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 8.19, (8.8%), to close on US$ 100.88. Gold, US$ 18 (0.4%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 103 (1.9%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 5,062 on 13 March. Silver was trading at US$ 84.33 – US$ 3.32 (3.9%) lower on the week.

An online G7 meeting, earlier in the week, had failed to make a decision on whether to release emergency oil stocks in the wake of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. France’s Finance Minister, Roland Lescure, noted that, “what we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles”. He also added that governments were following the situation closely and that there were currently no supply problems in either Europe or the US.

As widely expected, the International Energy Agency recommended the release of a record high four hundred million barrels 400 million barrels of oil, in (probably) a vain attempt, to try to restrain soaring crude prices; the timing of the release has yet to be decided. Once again it was US pressure that saw the thirty-two members unanimously agree to the resolution and it appears that the US and Japan would be the largest contributors to the IEA release. Whilst US Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, noted that this move would take some pressure off the global price, he did not believe the world was facing an energy shortage. He added that “we’ve got a transit problem, which is temporary. You have a temporary transit problem that we’re resolving militarily and diplomatically, which we can resolve and will resolve”.

In a bid to stabilise rising oil prices, the US has given a thirty-day waiver to Russian oil and petroleum products already in transit; this will allow other countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. It is estimated that would affect one hundred million barrels of Russian crude. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, noted that this “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” would “not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction”. 

UK’s petrol retailers are facing an investigation that they are unjustifiably raising fuel prices at the pumps and thereby are profiting from the conflict in the ME. It seems that petrol scalpers are all over the place and are making hay while the sun shines.

Analytics agency Kpler posted that ME exports are only at about one-third of normal levels, with most shipowners reluctant to take a gamble on sailing through the Straits of Hormuz. It estimates that the amount of oil in the area is now worth more than US$ 200 million, and notes that ME oil producers will have to be considering shutting wells down – or at least cutting production levels – to ease the strain on over full storage facilities. If and when, some sort of normality returns, it could take a further two weeks to restart full production, load the crude from storage and reposition tankers to return to the ME Gulf.

In a US$ 773 million deal, Axel Springer has finally acquired the Telegraph Media Group European; last year, the Daily Mail and General Trust  had proposed to buy the firm for US$ 672 million, but the Starmer government ordered an investigation into that deal on public interest and competition grounds because the DMGT already owned the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Telegraph, the Telegraph Magazine and the website and app. The German media firm’s chief executive commented that he wanted to “preserve the distinctive character and legacy” of the Telegraph, and that it would back an investment programme into TMG to “grow and expand the business”.

At the beginning of this week, the prices of many airfares rocketed. Reports show, for example, that Seoul to London, last Wednesday, 11 March, direct flights were almost eight times higher than a week earlier – US$ 563 to US$ 4.35k. However, airlines have been impacted by higher costs since the start of the Iranian crisis, including jet fuel prices having doubled, longer flight times to bypass ME conflict areas, consumer cutback on air travel etc. Carriers’ share prices took a tumble on Tuesday, with Korean Airlines down 8.6%, Air New Zealand – 7.8%, Cathay Pacific – 5.0%, European airlines – between 2.5% and 6.0% lower, and US carriers by some 4.0%.  It will be interesting to see which airlines have oil hedging in place – a practice stopped by most US airlines some years ago.

HSBC’s Chairman, Georges Elhedery has expressed confidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council members’ economic prospects when the economic impact of the US-Israeli conflict begins to take effect. He commented that“HSBC remains steadfast in our confidence in the GCC and in the long-term strength, resilience and promise of the region. Our conviction in the GCC’s fundamentals and its future is unchanged”. In the first two weeks, all six members of the GCC have been targetedby Iraniandrones and ballistic missiles which have severely disrupted oil and gas exports that account for major parts of their revenue streams.

The beginning of an eventful week saw the Indian rupee sink to its lowest ever level, trading, at 92.52 rupees to the dollar, (25.12 rupees to the dirham) – good news for Indian expats with money to send home. Demand has intensified, as the surging energy prices sent the greenback higher and rising dollar demand from importers. Indeed, on Monday, crude prices surged almost 25% – to US$ 117, (its highest price since July 2022) – fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and fears that energy supply routes could face disruption. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun curbing production, with Qatar earlier having cut its liquefied natural gas shipments. As noted in an earlier blog, India, which imports most of its energy requirements, is particularly susceptible, as higher fuel costs quickly filter into inflation and widen the country’s current account deficit. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been closely monitoring currency markets and had earlier stepped in earlier to support the rupee, is expected to maintain a firm grip on the situation in the coming days as the currency and government bonds remain under pressure.

Official data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela showed that 2025 inflation topped a staggering 475% – almost ten times the 2024 figure 48.0%. Last month, inflation had eased to 14.6% after reaching 32.6% in January – the highest level since January 2023.

Following two years of contraction, 2025 saw Austria’s Gross Domestic Product grow by 0.6%; this recovery follows two consecutive years of contraction. According to preliminary calculations, the nominal GDP is expected to have reached approximately US$ 5.97 billion. The services sector, with a 1.0% rise, was the main driver behind this recovery, with welcome rises in investment activity and consumer spending, whilst there were very marginal 0.1% increases noted in the trade, transport, and accommodation sectors. However, these positive figures were offset by 2.9% and 1.2% contractions in the construction and manufacturing  sectors, whilst the foreign trade sector did not contribute significantly to the recovery because of a 1.7% hike in 2025 imports, with export growth only nudging 0.3% higher.

Rachel Reeves has updated MPs on the economic impact of the Iran war in the House of Commons and, inter alia, said:

• the conflict in the Middle East is likely to put “upward pressure on inflation” in the UK
• additional funding has been approved for the Ministry of Defence to deploy “additional capabilities” in the region, funded by the Treasury
• she is ready to support the release of International Energy Agency oil reserves as supply issues continue from the Gulf
• despite the new pressures, the 5p fuel duty (US$ 0.0667) cut is still set to end later this year

Today, Friday the thirteenth of March, proved to be an unlucky day for sterling, as the pound sank to US$ 1.32 – its lowest level since early December – and for the fourth consecutive day headed south. It fell to US$ 1.32 this morning and has dropped for four days in a row. The rate at the foreign exchange is sitting just below US$ 1.30 on average. The cause of the current malaise is the double whammy of disappointing GDP data and growing geopolitical tensions, which have strengthened the US dollar. The US dollar has made use of its status of being a safe haven, as the world’s reserve currency, as it continues to move upwards by the end of the week.

Since the start of the war with Iran, and the inevitable surge in international inflation, it has become increasingly obvious that the BoE will be changing their mind about what to do with interest rates. Only two weeks ago, the money was on cast iron rate cuts – the first at the March meeting and the other 0.25% reduction sometime later this year. Now there is every chance that the rate will be changed – but upwards by 0.25%. UK gilts have suffered their heaviest selling since the disastrous Kwasi Kwarteng budget during Liz Truss’s fifty days premiership in September 2022. What’s Going On?

Beware The Ides Of March!                                      06 March 2026

Wasl, the government developer, has become known for its social responsibility, with its designs around connectivity, community infrastructure, greenery, and access to premium amenities, and its belief that quality living should be accessible across all income levels. This can be seen from its master plan communities like Wasl Village in Al Qusais, with 6.20k residential units, (ranging from studios to one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments), and Wasl Green Park’s 2.53k one-, two-, and three-bedroom homes set within landscaped surroundings. Both developments are indicators on how affordability and high-quality urban living can seamlessly coexist.

Last May, a landmark governmental partnership between Wasl and the RTA/Dubai Municipality resulted in plans to double its affordable leasehold residential portfolio across Dubai, with a coordinated strategy to address housing demand at scale. Wasl aims to double its affordable leasehold residential portfolio over the next five years. The initial projects will cover a total planned area of 1.46 million sq mt, with delivery phased over multiple stages to ensure infrastructure readiness and long-term community viability. This initiative directly supports the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, which calls for a balanced housing ecosystem encompassing luxury, mid-income, and affordable segments, while upgrading urban areas into vibrant, inclusive communities.

Earlier in the week, Dubai Multi Commodities Centre unveiled further details of its Uptown District expansion, including plans for Phase 3 of the district’s master plan. Phase 1 delivered the three hundred and forty mt Uptown Tower and central plaza, with phase 2 – two Grade A office towers and two residential towers – under construction with completion slated for Q1 2028. Phase 3 will comprise a six hundred mt plus, consisting high end residential units, Grade A offices (accounting for some 50% of total space), and a luxury hotel operated by an international hospitality brand. The tower will feature direct integration with the Dubai Metro, through a climate-controlled link bridge, with road upgrades, including flyover access to Sheikh Zayed Road.

Despite the ongoing regional tensions, all Emaar communities, malls, hospitality assets and development projects continue to operate normally. Its founder, Mohamed Alabbar, commented that “the city continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by effective leadership, sound regulation, and a dynamic business environment. Our focus remains on disciplined execution, operational excellence, and delivering sustainable value for our shareholders and customers”.

At Tuesday’s media briefing, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, confirmed that the UAE’s strategic stockpile of essential commodities is sufficient to meet market needs for up to the next six months. The continued availability of basic goods and price is some relief for the population, currently under emergency conditions. The Minister noted that the robust and sustainable legislative framework has been introduced to protect food security in the country.

At the same debriefing meeting, Minister Al Marri confirmed that the UAE had opened safe air corridors with GCC countries, enabling it to operate up to forty-eight flights per hour as part of a gradual restoration of air traffic following recent regional developments. He also confirmed that the General Civil Aviation Authority has commenced exceptional flight operations at the country’s airports to facilitate the departure of stranded passengers, affected by flight disruptions. In the first two days of the month, about 18k passengers had been transported. He added that the aviation sector was operating under a clear institutional framework focused on preparedness, coordination, and safety, with airspace and human safety as top priorities. Whilst noting that the country’s ecosystem includes more than 100k hotel rooms and over 40k tourism-related establishments across the country, the Minister commented that it was working closely with hotels and tourism companies to ensure the safety, security and comfort of visitors, while maintaining the highest standards of service.

Hotel establishments in Dubai have received an email from the Department of Economy and Tourism instructing them to extend all necessary support to tourists impacted by the flight cancellations or delays. It emailed all hotels requesting “we kindly request your cooperation in ensuring that hotel guests, who were due to check out but are unable to do so as a result of these circumstances, are offered the option to extend their stay under the same conditions as their initial booking. It is important that no guests are evicted under these circumstances”. The DET also instructed all Dubai hotels to extend the highest level of support for travellers. The announcement follows the cancellation of over 1.5k flights in the region and the closure of Dubai airports. Earlier, the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority had also announced that the UAE will cover all accommodation and sustenance costs for affected and stranded passengers, but it seems to apply only in Abu Dhabi. However, UAE travellers, facing unexpected flight delays, can now get temporary support in Dubai. Palazzo Versace Dubai has announced it is offering a complimentary stay, including breakfast, to stranded travellers. This is subject to availability and confirmation of travel status. The move comes as flight disruptions continue.

During the week, S&P Global released its adjusted February’s UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index, with business activity and new orders driving the strongest expansion in a year; the PMI nudged 0.1% higher on the month to 55.0 – its highest level in eleven months. The figures are indicative of the resilience of the UAE market and the positive impact of its diversified economic model, where sectors such as construction, real estate, logistics, tourism and technology are emerging as key engines of growth. The business expansion was attributable to several factors such as strong domestic demand, successful contract wins and aggressive marketing strategies by companies. There was a marked jump in new orders, with companies reporting a steep rise in fresh business, as rising tourism inflows, expanding e-commerce platforms and growing demand for AI-related products and services.

The Dubai PMI dipped 1.3 to 54.6 in February, on the month, indicating a softer but still robust expansion in the emirate’s non-oil private sector; (any reading above fifty demonstrates growth). Positive factors included employment growing at its fastest rate in two years, improved supply chains, easing inflationary pressures and continued growth in output and new orders, supported by rising population inflows, marketing initiatives, tourism growth and increased adoption of advanced technologies such as AI. The S&P Global survey showed companies continuing to express strong confidence in future activity. All this good news data was harnessed before the onset of the crisis, in its seventh day, and now needs to be read from a completely different perspective. Unfortunately, these forecasts were rather out of date even before their publication.

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, the UAE retains third spot, among emerging markets, in logistics, with 2025 bilateral trade jumping 13.33%, to US$ 39.02 billion. The main drivers were the deepening economic ties between the two countries and growing demand for goods across key sectors. Although exports to the US only nudged some 2.0% higher, to US$ 7.61 billion, imports surged 16.2% to US$ 31.41 billion. The US trade surplus with the UAE widened by US$ 4.19 billion, (21.4%), to US$ 23.80 billion.  

Last Sunday, a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was signed with Ecuador at a ceremony in Quito, in the presence of Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed and President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa. A cooperation agreement, between the UAE Ministry of Investment and Ecuador’s Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments, and Fisheries, was signed to further explore investment opportunities across priority sectors of mutual interest; a total investment value exceeding US$ 3 billion is currently under discussion between the two countries. Current bilateral non-oil trade was estimated at US$ 374 million last year.

Jebel Ali Port, the largest port in the Middle East, has four terminals handling over fifteen million TEUs, (twenty-foot container units), a year of container cargo, along with significant volumes of bulk, breakbulk and Ro-Ro cargo.  Earlier in the week, Dubai’s DP World had announced that all terminals at Jebel Ali port were operating normally, confirming that it is continuously monitoring developments in close coordination with relevant authorities.

Yesterday, 05 March 2026, the sixth day of the crisis, the UAE intercepted six ballistic missiles, and one hundred and twenty-five drones. Since the beginning of the Iranian attacks, ninety-four UAE residents have been injured. Over the first seven days of the crisis,, two hundred and five ballistic missiles have been detected, with one hundred and ninety ballistic missiles destroyed, while thirteen falling into the sea, and two within the country’s territory. Additionally, one thousand, one hundred and eighty-four Iranian drones were detected, of which one thousand, one hundred and ten of them were intercepted, while seventy-four drones fell within the country’s territory. Eight cruise missiles were also detected and destroyed.

The UAE Fuel Price Committee reviews and adjusts retail petrol and diesel prices at the end of each month to reflect changes in global fuel markets. March retail prices came into force last Sunday, 01 March 2026.

Ecuador has become the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA, following Columbia (April 2024), Costa Rica, (April 2025) and Chile, (November 2025). As with other CEPAs, their aims are to reduce tariffs and remove barriers to bilateral trade by strengthening cooperation and building strategic partnerships between the public and private sectors. It also forms part of the UAE’s ongoing efforts to expand its trade partnership network in the region. This particular agreement focuses on priority areas including clean energy, advanced technology, mining, logistics, and agriculture, among other sectors of mutual interest.

This week, Salik Company posted its 2025 results, with all indicators heading north, as revenue, net profit and EBITDA surged by 35.1% to US$ 842 million, by 33.4% to US$ 422 million and by 35.8% to US$ 583 million, on the back of higher toll usage, cost efficiency and fine revenues. Revenue streams included from fines at US$ 76 million, (down 0.8% to 9.1% of total revenue), tag activation fees, at US$ 13 million, (up 14.8%) – and contributing US$ 13 million to the total revenue – and US$ 7 million total ancillary revenue, driven by revenues from Parking Payment Solutions partnerships with Emaar Malls and Parkonic, a significant increase of more than 300%. The Board of Directors proposed a total dividend of US$ 243 million to be paid during H1 2026 – equating to US$ 0.032 per share; the total dividend, 33.4% higher on the year, comprised a cash dividend of US$ 214 million, and a proposed special dividend of US$ 29 million. There were 852.7 million total trips, through Salik’s tolls, last year, 639.1 million of which were chargeable, with revenue enhanced by two new gates and variable pricing. Peak trips US$ 0.016 per hour reached 212.2 million, while off-peak US$ 0.011 saw more trips at 365.8 million. 2.8 million vehicles, (up 7.7% on the year), are registered to go through Dubai’s Salik gates.

Q4 EBITDA, with a 3.1% decline in margin, increased by 20.7% to top US$ 153 million, with Salik’s net profit before tax and after tax rising 19.6% to US$ 123 million and by 19.6% to US$ 112 million; the main drivers were continued growth in chargeable trips and revenue momentum in Q4 2025.

Citing precautionary measures during a period of rapidly evolving developments across the region, regulators confirmed a two-day closure of Nasdaq Dubai, effective Monday, 02 March and Tuesday, 03 March. Furthermore, the Capital Market Authority separately announced that stock markets across the country will also remain closed on the same dates, including the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Market stakeholders have been urged to follow official communication channels for updates as conditions evolve. All bourses reopened for business on Wednesday, 04 March 2026.

The DFM opened the shortened week on Wednesday 04 March on 6,503 points, and having shed two hundred and twenty-two points (3.4%), the previous fortnight, lost a further five hundred and eighty-four points (10.0%), to close the week on 5,917 points, by 06 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.07 points lower the previous week, lost US$ 0.61 to close on US$ 3.80 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.82, US$ 8.99, US$ 2.26 and US$ 0.44, and closed on 06 March at US$ 0.78, US$ 8.01, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.38. On 06 March, trading was at three hundred and thirty-four million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and sixty-three million compared to, three hundred and eighty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and seventy million on 27 February.

By 06 March 2026, Brent, US$ 3.80 (5.5%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 20.39, (28.2%), to close on US$ 92.69. Gold, US$ 234 (4.7%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 19 (0.4%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 5,159 on 06 March. Silver was trading at US$ 84.33 – US$ 5.46 (6.1%) lower on the week.

Iraqi authorities posted that oil production from its Rumaila oil field had been reduced by 700k bpd as from 01 March and that it had also shut down production of 460k bpd from West Qurna. By 03 March, Brent crude was trading higher at US$ 83.56. Officials also noted that production will be cut by a further three million bpd if oil tankers cannot move freely and reach loading ports. 

Later in the week, and after suspending production at all its key facilities, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its liquefied natural gas, (and associated products), shipments. All its affected buyers have been duly informed that contractual deliveries could not be guaranteed. Force majeure allows suppliers to suspend contractual obligations when events, beyond their control, prevent normal operations. As Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter, it will be no surprise to note that this will result in a significant impact for global gas supply; this has the potential of lifting domestic energy prices in the UK and many other countries.

The longer this goes on will dictate the wider issue of the impact on global energy prices – and ultimately on the global trade and economic environment. On top of this, about 20% of the world’s energy requirements pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. (The US energy information administration reported that, in 2024, oil flow through the Strait averaged twenty million bpd). Any prolonged disruption to Gulf oil supplies would affect energy flows to both Europe and Asia – and latest data, from MarineTraffic indicates that traffic through Strait of Hormuz, probably the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, has fallen by 90%. The knock-on impact will not only see inflation surging again but will inevitably hurt many countries’ external balances, currencies and capital flows. Most experts seem to favour Bent oil prices surging above US$ 100, with yesterday’s crude futures, at US$ 83.36 a barrel, after touching their highest since July 2024 at US$ 85.12. It is estimated that a mere 10.0% rise in oil prices can deteriorate current account balances (for emerging markets) by forty-sixty bp. Even bigger increases would only exacerbate the problem – more marked in emerging markets including the likes of Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Say a 20% oil price hike would probably see growth figures slashed by 0.5% and inflation moving 0.7% higher while drastically widening current account deficits across almost every economy. India, with much limited oil inventory, would be more than spooked by higher oil prices. A climbing US$ would not be well received by low-reserve countries such as Argentina, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey which would face heightened risks of capital outflows and currency slides.

With Netflix eventually walking away from discussions, after not matching Paramount’s US$ 31.0 per share offer, the battle has finally seen a deal, valued at a mega US$ 110 billion, to buy Warner Bros Discovery go through. Consequently, the agreement sees Paramount Skydance become the owner of the news channels, CNN and CBS News, and the combination of two of Hollywood’s five legacy studios, potentially reshaping the US film industry. David Ellison, chair and CEO of Paramount, noted that “from the very beginning, our pursuit of Warner Bros Discovery has been guided by a clear purpose: to honour the legacy of two iconic companies while accelerating our vision of building a next-generation media and entertainment company”. However, the deal still has to go through due process, with regulators in California preparing a vigorous review of the deal and possible opposition from both Democrat and Republican politicians, concerned that the agreement may result in higher prices and fewer choices for customers.

Tuesday saw Apple unveiling its updated MacBook Air, (powered by Apple’s latest M5 chip), and MacBook Pro models, featuring its latest M5-series chips and bigger base storage. The former, with 512 gigabytes of storage, as standard, retails at US$ 1.47k in the UK. The fourteen-inch MacBook Pro models, powered by the M5 Pro chip, start at US$ 2.94k and now come with one terabyte of storage as standard, up from 512GB in many earlier base configurations. Apple hopes that these enhancements will entice buyers, in a softening PC market exacerbated by rising memory costs, to update their MacBooks. On Monday, Apple launched the iPhone 17e, with its more affordable smartphone model starting at US$ 599, with an increase in base storage to 256 gigabytes.

Ocado, which provides automated technology for distribution centres and runs its own UK online grocery business, through a JV with Marks & Spencer, announced plans to cut some one thousand jobs, (5% of its payroll). The company confirmed that 67% of jobs would be in the UK and the majority of those affected will be from its HQ in Hatfield; there will be no impact on the retail side of the business. This announcement comes on the back of Ocado announcing a 59.0% surge in its core underlying profit measure to US$ 239 million. The job cuts, along with reductions in future R&D research, and the merger of its Ocado Solutions and Ocado Intelligent Automation divisions, will result in savings of some US$ 201 million. Shares that had already shed 27% over the previous twelve months, lost almost 11% in the previous Thursday’s early trading. Much of that decline can be explained by both its North American partners, Kroger and Sobeys, deciding to close a total of four robotic customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) due to weak demand.

Meanwhile Ocado comes out as the second most expensive UK supermarket based on Which’s seventy-item shopping basket, with a US$ 202 price tag and only ahead of Waitrose’s US$ 218. For much of 2025, Aldi was ‘Which’s’ cheapest supermarket, except for one month in summer when Aldi took its place. Now after several months of sparring, Lidl has taken over the leading mantle, (at US$ 161), but there is little, (only US$ 0.83) between the top three with Lidl and Asda. Among the traditional supermarkets, Tesco had been leading the way for a basket of 70 items – but Asda is now marginally cheaper, even if you use a Clubcard; both baskets are in the region of US$ 178. When the longer list is analysed, Asda is still cheaper by just over US$ 9 at US$ 626. Meanwhile, Marks & Spencer retained their title as the UK’s favourite supermarket followed by Tesco, Aldi, Iceland and Waitrose.

Amazing figures show that China registered an average of 26k newly established enterprises every day, equating to a total of 25.74 million new businesses in 2025; the number of new foreign-funded companies totalled 70.39k – 19.1% higher on the year. There was a 14.7% hike, to 19.76k, in investors from countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. It is estimated that these firms made direct investment into China, totalling US$ 16.87 billion – 1.9% higher on the year.

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board has approved an US$ 8.1 billion, four-year loan for Ukraine, with US$ 1.5 billion to be disbursed immediately. This loan, which replaces a 2023 US$ 15.5 billion package, will provide economic stability and enhance Ukraine’s public spending programme, covering an estimated budget shortfall of US$ 136.5 billion over four years, including a US$ 104.37 billion-euro loan from the EU. Coinciding the with the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion, the IMF confirmed the new Extended Fund Facility arrangement for Ukraine – a US$ 136.5 billion international support package; this would resolve Ukraine’s balance of payments problem and restore medium-term external viability. The World Bank, EU, UN and the Ukrainian government this week issued a new report that put the cost of rebuilding Ukraine at US$ 588 billion over the next decade. The world body now projects that Ukraine’s 2026 economic growth will be 0.5% higher at 2.5% this year, whilst the inflation is expected to more than halve from 12.7% to 6.1%; its financing gap this year is estimated to top US$ 52.0 billion.

Japan’s January unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 2.7%, on the month – the first monthly rise noted since September. The number of people with jobs dipped 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted 68.17 million, while those without jobs rose 3.2% to 1.91 million. Meanwhile, the job availability ratio was a marginal 0.02% lower, at 1.18%, That shows that there were one hundred and eighteen jobs available from December to 1.18, meaning there were 118 jobs available for everyone hundred job seekers.

There are early signs that the US labour market may be creaking under intense pressure, as the number of jobs surprisingly declined in February; many experts had forecast that the hiring may have remained stable or even moved higher. There was a 92k decline in payroll numbers, with the unemployment rate nudging marginally higher to 4.4%.  The market is concerned that the inevitable hike in oil prices, attributable to the ongoing war with Iran, will slash growth. It marked the biggest monthly job loss since October, when the US government shut down, and came amid concerns that a jump in oil prices sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran could threaten growth and, in turn, impact labour numbers. Healthcare numbers were hit by strikes last month, whilst federal government jobs continued their downward trend, with 10k less jobs last month; since hitting its peak numbers in October 2024, the federal payroll has shrunk by 330k, equating to some 11%. 2025 was the weakest year for jobs since the pandemic and it seems that this year will not be much better. Normally a rate decrease would be on the cards to stimulate the labour market but in current circumstances – and the distinct possibility of surging oil prices – the subsequent upward pressure on prices, may give the Fed reason to hold off tinkering with interest rates – and at the same time giving the US President another headache.

The 20 February blog, ‘Turning Japanese’ noted:

‘Now with at least a market correction on the horizon that will see price increases weaken, but still in positive territory, banks have to exercise more caution. If there is an ongoing major conflict, then it is highly likely that price rises will fall into negative territory; that could be in the region of 10% to 15% – but not on the scale post GFC when prices registered more than 60%’.

It also noted that the bull run would come to an inevitable end but had opined that this would, in the normal course of business, probably had been in 2027; this crisis has brought the five-year bull run to an earlier than expected but temporary end. A price correction will be seen over this year and as posted above, could be in the region of 10% to 15%. However, this will be over a short period of time and business will return to see a rejuvenated housing sector once again. Beware The Ides of March!