Are We Human?                                                                15 December 2023

The real estate and properties transactions totalled US$ 3.51 billion during the week ending 15 December 2023. The sum of transactions was 304 plots, sold for US$ 962 million, and 2,744 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.95 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 256 million, the second in Saih Shuaib 4 for US$ 46 million and in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 28 million. Wadi Al Safa 2 recorded the most transactions, with one hundred and twenty-three sales, worth US$ 39 million, followed by thirty-one sales, in Al Hebiah Fourth for US$ 222 million, and twenty-two sales in Madinat Hind 4 valued at US$ 7 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were all apartments, the first in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 136 million, followed by one in Trade Center Second for US$ 83 million and the third in Al Thanayah Fourth for US$ 18 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 482 million, with the highest being for land in Trade Center Second mortgaged for US$ 99 million; two hundred and thirty-six properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 134 million.

YTD, at the end of November, Dubai’s residential transactions reached new record highs – at 112.4k – despite a decline in off-plan sales in November, on the back of a slight moderation in the recent price surge; monthly transactions of 9.0k were 13.2% lower, with a 26.4% decline in off-plan sales, partly offset by a 5.1% hike in the secondary market segment. The YTD November figures were 22.5% higher than the twelve months’ 2022 return. CBRE noted that average annual price rises in November came in at 18.9%, compared to 19.1% a month earlier; average apartment prices increased by 18.3% and average villa prices by 22.2%. Average apartment prices reached US$ 374 per sq ft, and average villa prices topped US$ 457 per sq ft. Interestingly, average apartment sales rates are still 7.7% lower than the record highs registered in 2014, with average villa sales rates currently 16.2% above. Jumeirah registered the highest sales rate per sq ft in the apartment segment of the market at US$ 680, whilst Palm Jumeirah registered the highest sales rate per sq ft in the villa segment of the market at US$ 1,422. In the rental market, annual rental growth in November was at 19.2%, (19.7% in October) – for apartments and villas by 19.6% and 16.6% at US$ 30.4k and US$ 66.9k. In line with prices, Palm Jumeirah and Al Barrari were the two locations for the highest rents -US$ 70.4k and US$ 313.5k. Early indicators point to a continuing softening into the new year, as there will be a slowdown in off-plan sales, with developers delivering stock already in their portfolio and already sold.

Meraas has announced its third collaboration with Bulgari – the beginning of construction on the Bulgari Lighthouse, a new luxury twenty-seven storey beachfront tower at Jumeirah Bay Island, a six million sq ft sanctuary developed by Meraas. The project will comprise four- and five-bedroom penthouses, with various layouts and configurations. As penthouses increase in size and scale, additional features include a private pool, private lift access, an air-conditioned garage, and sweeping terraces. Its curated residences are separated by layers of architectural coral that filter light, air, and the outside world. The Sky Villa Penthouse will encompass the top three floors of the Bulgari Lighthouse and is surrounded by expansive private rooftop gardens, outdoor living spaces, two private pools, and stylish lounge areas on either side of the building, designed by world-renowned architecture firm Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel. All residents can enjoy access to the facilities of the neighbouring Bulgari Hotels & Resorts.

ESG Hospitality has announced the complete sale of all branded apartments at its first Dubai development project, located in the Dubai Hills Estate, the Mallside Residence and Hotel.  Its Curio Collection by Hilton encompasses one hundred and forty-four branded apartments, with the eighteen-floor hotel and residential tower offering a mix of studio, one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, including an extensive selection of retail, dining, and lifestyle offerings. As part of the global Curio Collection by Hilton, the development also features a one hundred and five-key hotel, with an all-day dining restaurant, infinity pool, pool bar, children’s pool, fitness centre, and spa, which are available to both residents and guests. The tower’s top floor will host specialty restaurants and a rooftop bar and lounge.

The hospitality sector seems confident to predict that Dubai is set to reach the 200k hotel rooms landmark by 2030. Speaking at Skift Global Forum East, Sébastien Bazin, Group Chairman and CEO of Accor has ruled out overcapacity as the Asia and Gulf regions have been “building a true tourism plan.” At the same event, Timothy Kelly, president, Atlantis Global, said Dubai is set to have the highest number of hotel rooms in the next couple of years, surpassing Las Vegas, as the emirate witnesses strong growth in tourist numbers and also the inflow of new hotels. He estimates that Dubai will overhaul Las Vegas room inventory of 155k, within the next three years, and will have more hotel rooms than any other city or destination in the world. Dubai Tourism noted that the emirate had 146.5k hotel rooms, at eight hundred and four establishments by the end of 2022, compared to 138.0k rooms and seven hundred and fifty-five establishments a year earlier. He also noted that “the amount of properties that they’ve been able to unveil and bring into the market, there’s demand for that as the emirate has great infrastructure and great relationships”.

Dhows, traditional wooden sailing vessels, have been an integral part of Dubai’s history and culture for centuries, with latest trade figures indicating that there had been a significant increase in trade through traditional wooden dhows. It is estimated that about 11k dhows entered Dubai’s ports in 2023, transporting more than 1.3 million metric tonnes of cargo – 10% higher on the year. The Marine Agency for Wooden Dhows is responsible for streamlining entry and exit processes and is actively engaged in implementing several initiatives aimed at expediting clearances for transactions. A major enhancement has seen the time required for loading and completing ship procedures from forty days to around three, whilst the previous eight to ten hours waiting time has been slashed to just thirty minutes. Dubai Creek, Deira Wharfage and Al Hamriya Port are the key hubs for trade through wooden dhows in Dubai.

Flydubai was named Airline of the Year at the Aviator Middle East Awards that recognised the carrier for setting industry standards by delivering exceptional inflight experiences, efficient operations, as well as contributing to enhancing the Middle East’s global connectivity and driving the region’s economic growth. Its CEO, Ghaith Al Ghaith, also commented that “this award recognises our commitment to making travel more accessible across the region, providing the right product at the right time and to supporting Dubai’s aviation hub. This award goes to everyone working hard at flydubai to ensure we continue to push boundaries and to our passengers and stakeholders for the trust they have in us.” Having added twenty destinations YTD to its expanding network, flydubai created a growing network of more than one hundred and twenty destinations in fifty-four countries served by a young and efficient fleet of eighty-four Boeing 737 aircraft.

A new law, issued by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, has established the Dubai Investment Fund as an independent public entity operating on a commercial basis, empowering the Fund with the financial and administrative independence to pursue its objectives along with the legal mandate to do so. Furthermore, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, issued Dubai Executive Council Resolution No. 94 of 2023 related to the formation of the Fund’s Board of Directors chaired by Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid, with Abdulrahman Saleh Al Saleh serving as Vice-Chairman of the Board, with Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Mulla, Rashid Ali bin Obood, and Ahmad Ali Meftah as members. Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Mulla has been appointed as the MD and CEO of the Fund.

Dubai Investment Fund will be responsible for investing Dubai government funds, surpluses and the general reserve locally and internationally. Its main aim is to generate returns, benefiting both current and future generations, while implementing best practices and the investment policy approved by the board of directors. It will also seek to bolster the financial stability of the Dubai Government by financing the government’s deficit and establishing strong financial reserves, thereby promoting long-term financial sustainability. The fund will actively contribute to the realisation of the emirate’s strategic priorities, and endorsed public policies, through efficient investments in strategic and development projects. Priority is accorded to initiatives that foster Dubai’s sustainable development across vital sectors, including the economic and social spheres, while diversifying income sources. The Fund will focus on investments in stocks, bonds, and securities to achieve sustainable returns and can explore prospects in local or international financial markets while following investment policies, approved by the board of directors. Additionally, it can deal in movable and immovable assets, manage funds, provide mortgages and guarantees, besides participating in the financial derivatives business, all in compliance with Dubai’s laws.

Dubai Investment Fund will function as Dubai Government’s vested authority when it comes to owning shares in entities like Dewa, Salik Company, Dubai Taxi Company, and other companies directly owned by the Dubai Government. Additionally, it covers government-owned companies, as identified by Dubai’s Supreme Fiscal Committee. The Fund will relieve the Dubai Government of rights and obligations related to companies, specifically in the context of ownership of shares comprising the capital of such companies, as well as all contracts, agreements, commitments, deposits, bank accounts, and loans associated with such shares. All relevant government entities in Dubai must register, under Dubai Investment Fund, all their assets, stocks, shares, movable and immovable properties, licences, permits, bonds, privileges, and other instruments. Additionally, Dubai World will be affiliated with the Dubai Investment Fund while preserving its legal identity as defined by Law No. (3) of 2006 and its amendments regarding the establishment of Dubai World.

Following India’s announcement that it would ban the export of all onions until 31 March 2024, prices of the vegetable have jumped sixfold in the UAE retail sector. Industry executives in the country are looking at other markets for a cheaper supply line, with the likes of Turkey, Egypt, Iran and China possible options – but in terms of quantity, quality, and price, Indian onions are considered the best in the market.

As Dubai’s economy is still strengthening, there was no surprise to see the emirate’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI keep in positive territory at 56.8, although 0.6 lighter than the October return. The main drivers behind the latest return include new orders and output improved. A reflection of the marked improvement in business conditions can be gleaned from the fact that inventories also continued to rise at a historically rapid pace in the month. Although new order growth also stayed above trend, November witnessed a softer increase after hitting the fifty-two-month record last month, with sales momentum slowing, attributable to increased market competition. Employment in the emirate also improved in November, albeit at a softer pace than October. The survey noted that other metrics of the emirate’s non-oil private sector economy’s health, such as output and inventories, “remained strong compared to historical trends, suggesting that firms are still expecting to grow and hence expanded both input buying and output volumes”.

To ensure that doing business in Dubai becomes easier, the Department of Economy and Tourism has introduced the ‘Dubai Unified Licence’ – a unique commercial identification provided to all businesses in the emirate. It will be issued to existing and newly established entities, operating with either a mainland or a free zone licence. The registry consolidates all economic establishments in Dubai and its free zones into a single platform for data management, collation and sharing, serving as a reliable single digital information source. The initiative aims to standardise and streamline Dubai’s business processes, in accordance with global best practices, as well as ensuring greater transparency and ease of access to business-related information. As part of the initiative, establishments will undergo thorough validation, verification and screening by the appropriate authorities in order to receive their unique digital identity of which 50k licences have already been issued.

With the US Federal Reserve announcing it would be keeping the Interest on Reserve Balances, to which the base rate is anchored, unchanged, the Central Bank of the UAE followed suit and has maintained the Base Rate to the Overnight Deposit Facility at an unchanged 5.40%.The Central Bank has also decided to maintain the interest rate on borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at 50 bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities. The Base Rate signals the general stance of monetary policy and provides an effective floor for overnight money market interest rates in the UAE.

The Central Bank has joined the AFAQ, which links payment systems in GCC countries, offering financial transactions in local currencies and in real-time with lower fees. (AFAQ is a regional payments system provided by Gulf Payments Company, in cooperation with Saudi Central Bank, to execute financial transactions in GCC local currencies, in a short period of time with competitive pricing within a safe and stable ecosystem. It is in line with the CBUAE’s strategy to provide secure and instant payment platforms and enhance integration with the regional payment ecosystem. Barclays has also joined the organisation, being the first such financial institution in the UAE. To date, the state banks of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have joined, along with a number of commercial banks from the three countries. The remaining GCC Central Banks and commercial banks will join in due course, in line with an agreed work timetable.

This week, the Central Bank of the UAE revoked the licence of Cogent Insurance Broker and struck the UAE-based company’s name off the Register, pursuant to Art 22 (2) of the Board of Directors resolution No 15 of 2013 Insurance Brokerage Regulations. This administrative sanction follows an internal examination that found that Cogent had a weak compliance framework and failed to comply with its regulatory obligations.

e& has signed a binding agreement for the 100% acquisition of Norwegian telecommunications company Telenor’s local unit, as it continues to expand its operations in Pakistan. It was signed by Pakistan Telecommunication Company, e&’s listed operating entity, and Fornebu-based Telenor for the acquisition of Telenor Pakistan at an enterprise value of US$ 381 million. The move will allow the local tech giant to focus on building the best next-generation network and drive the growth of digital transformation in Pakistan. The country’s telecommunication sector had about one hundred and ninety-seven million subscribers, which covers nearly 89% of the population, and posted 2022 revenue of US$ 2.45 billion, (up 7.8% on the year), and contributed 2.7% to Pakistan’s GDP. It is estimated that within five years, the country’s telecom market is projected to hit US$ 5.15 billion, from an estimated US$ 4.38 billion in 2023, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.28%.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 11 December 2023, 41 points (1.0%) lower the previous fortnight, gained 47 points (1.1%) to close the trading week on 4,001, by Friday 15 December 2023. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.03, closing on US$ 2.04 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.74, US$ 1.53, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 4.66, US$ 1.57 and US$ 0.38. On 15 December, trading was at 137 million shares, with a value of US$ 443 million, compared to 103 million shares, with a value of US$ 65 million, on 08 December 2023.

By Friday, 15 December 2023, Brent, US$ 17.40 lower (18.7%) the previous seven weeks, gained US$ 1.41 (1.9%) to close on US$ 76.83. Gold, US$ 79 (6.9%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 25 (1.2%) to trade at US$ 2,038 by 15 December 2023.

Turkish Airlines has ordered two hundred and thirty Airbus planes as part of a multibillion dollar deal including one hundred and fifty A321 planes, seventy A350 wide-body aircraft and a number of freighters; there are also rights to extend the deal to 355 aircraft. The airline has said publicly for months that it wants to place a big order as it aims to almost double its fleet in the next decade. This order  is also in accord with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition that Turkey  becomes a global power assisted by a strong national carrier

It follows a handshake accord in Istanbul, and adds weight to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition that Turkey becomes a global power. The airline’s chairman Ahmet Bolat noted that “we are reinforcing our leading position in global aviation and contributing to the nation’s prominence as an aviation hub.” For manufacturers in the Airbus supply chain the multibillion-dollar deal represents thousands of jobs, and in the UK, the benefits will run into the billions, as Rolls Royce will be making the engines and other stakeholders in the country providing parts.

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has advised Tesla to recall more than two million EVs after its driver assistance system was found to be partly defective; this recall covers most of the Teslas ever sold since 2015, when this tech was first introduced. Tesla confirmed that it would send a software update “over the air” to fix the issue. Autopilot is meant to help with steering, acceleration and braking – but, despite the name, the car still requires driver input. However, the NHTSA two-year investigation, involving nine hundred and fifty-six crashes, found that “the prominence and scope of the feature’s controls may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse”. According to the recall notice, the company did not concur with the agency’s analysis but agreed to add new features to resolve the concerns, including additional checks on turning on the self-driving features. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated this month that Tesla’s most advanced Autopilot offering, full self-driving, could end up generating more than US$ 50 billion a year in revenue by 2030, up from US$ 1 billion-US$ 3 billion presently. In the US, the full-self driving package costs US$ 12k, as well as a US$ 0.2k monthly subscription fee.

In the middle of a “streamlining” process, Nationwide has warned the possibility of five hundred staff being retrenched, indicating that it expects about two hundred to leave as it will seek to find people new roles. Confirming that redundancies will not impact “customer-facing colleagues”’, the Swindon-based finance company said the redundancy consultation aims to improve efficiency and direct investment into other areas of the business. A day earlier, it announced that it was rescinding its “work anywhere policy” and has advised staff to return to the office for at least two days a week, from early next year.

Only two months after filing for US bankruptcy, Smile Direct Club, founded in 2014, has closed its business, leaving many of its customers still requiring ongoing treatment; it claims that it has “improved more than two million smiles and lives”. The orthodontics company is best known for selling clear aligners for about US$ 2.3k, without the need to visit a dentist. Traditional dentistry sees “train-track” braces and clear aligners being fitted by dentists and orthodontists themselves, after an in-person consultation, but the US disruptor offered the same service cheaper and the fact they could take the moulds for their aligners themselves at home. Furthermore, the procedure only took four to six months – a much shorter period. Now the problem facing existing customers is future service because it appears that its customer support line will no longer be available, despite the fact that they may need check-ins or adjustments for their aligners; it does advise that if treatment is needed, they should contact their local dentists!  The company, which never made a profit, was once valued at US$ 8.9 billion but is now estimated to have US$ 900 million of debt.

Having already laid off eight hundred staff already in 2023, US toy giant Hasbro plans a further staff reduction of 1.1k – equating to almost 20% of its workforce – in a bid to save US$ 300 million. The maker of Transformers action figures, the Dungeons & Dragons fantasy game and Monopoly indicates that the cuts are down to weaker sales in the build-up to Christmas. Its CEO Chris Cocks noted that “market headwinds… have proven to be stronger and more persistent than planned.” Hasbro is not the only toy company to be suffering, but like others in the sector, it is struggling with a slowdown in sales after a surge during the pandemic when some parents bought toys to keep their children busy.

Having sued Google in 2020 for unlawfully making its app store dominant over rivals, Fortnite has won a US court battle against the tech giant, with a jury deciding that the search giant had operated an illegal monopoly; Epic won on all counts, with the court indicating that it would start considering the issue of compensation next month. It is estimated that hundreds of millions of people have had to use the store to install apps for smartphones, powered by Google’s Android software. Android powers roughly 70% of smartphones globally, and according to Epic games, more than 95% of Android apps are distributed through the Play Store. Although the store is not as profitable for the tech giant as its search business, the platform gives Google access to billions of mobile phones and tablets. The case also challenged transaction fees of up to 30% that Google imposes on Android app developers, and how the tech giant ties together its Play Store and billing service, which means developers must use both to have their apps in the store.

Mainly attributable to returning striking workers, both in the car industry and Hollywood, November US jobs growth was stronger, at 199k, helping to put jobless number down to 3.7% – the lowest since July 2023. Although this is welcome news for jobseekers, the stronger than expected job gains are food for thought for the Federal Reserve, which is still trying to cool the economy to reduce inflation. Furthermore, the report showed average hourly pay ticking up 0.4% from October – and 4.0% on the year which many think at this rate, it still shows that the Fed has got its job cut out to finally get on top of inflation and return it to its longstanding 2.0% target. There is no doubt that consumer spending continues to defy traditional economic theory and that the main driver behind this is the ongoing strong labour market. It is not so long ago that economists were spouting that pushing up interest rates, would result in an inevitable economic recession, with higher borrowing costs forcing firms and households to slow spending dramatically. History is telling another story. The Labor Department confirmed that the monthly average number of new jobs over the past twelve months has been 240k – or nearly 1.7 million in the period. On an annual basis, job growth is actually softening, but is obviously standing up well in an environment of slowing global growth and turbulent economic times, including record high interest rates.

An investor group, Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management, has offered to pay US$ 21 for each share of Macy’s that they do not already own – this is 20.8% higher than its closing price last Friday; earlier in the year, they were hovering around the US$ 11 level. Shares of the US department store have surged on hopes of a US$ 5.8 billion buyout deal. Macy’s, parent of Bloomingdale’s and makeup firm Bluemercury, operates more than seven hundred and twenty stores in the US. There is no doubt that the retailer has seen better times and in June, it cut its annual profit and sales forecast, whilst nine months sales to October came in 9.0% lower compared to 2022.

Republican Senator Rick Scott has requested the US government to investigate claims that Chinese garlic is unsafe, citing unsanitary production methods. Previously China has been accused of “dumping” garlic on to the market, at below-cost price. The country is the world’s biggest exporter of fresh and chilled garlic, with the US being a major consumer. Over the past thirty years, it has levied heavy tariffs on Chinese imports so as to “level the playing field”, when it comes to prices, with Donald Trump lifting them further in 2019. Senator Scott also highlights “a severe public health concern over the quality and safety of garlic grown in foreign countries – most notably, garlic grown in Communist China” – which, he says, have been “well documented” in online videos, cooking blogs and documentaries, including growing garlic in sewage.

The former head of a branch of The Bank of China has been jailed for life, after being convicted of embezzling US$ 325 million in one of the country’s biggest corruption cases. Xu Guojun was the head of a branch in Southern China from 1993 to 2001 and took advantage of loopholes in the lender’s fund management system to obtain false loans, along with two accomplices. He had fled to the US in 2001 but was forcibly repatriated two years ago, and now has also been deprived of political rights for life, with all his assets being confiscated. This case is the latest development in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption programme, that is focussed on the country’s US$ 60 trillion financial industry. He is on record on the need to crack down on the “hedonistic” lifestyles of bankers, and it seems that he is keen to weed out corruption in this sector. In October, Liu Liange, a former chairman of the Bank of China was arrested over suspicion of bribery and giving illegal loans; a month earlier, former chairman of China Life Insurance Wang Bin was sentenced to life in prison without parole for bribery.

Javier Milei, the newly appointed president of Argentine, has indicated that he will have to make significant public sector spending cuts to stabilise the economy and that “there is no alternative to a shock adjustment.” The libertarian economist warns that there is no alternative to this action to fix the country’s worst economic crisis in decades of boom-bust cycles, including inflation heading towards 150%. His other warning was that the economy would worsen in the short-term, saying “there is no money.” He has a difficult job to pull the country, (with 40% of its population living under the poverty line), back to some form of economic normalcy. He has inherited a country with a US$ 100 billion debt “bomb”, net foreign reserves at a negative US$ 10 billion, inflation at 143% and still moving quickly north, an inevitable and imminent sharp devaluation of the peso, and a recession on the short-term horizon.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s positive immigration strategy has worked well to date and has aided economic growth, as well as reducing the ongoing problem of an ageing population. With the high cost of living and rental shortages, things are beginning to change and now there is the problem of rising emigration numbers; although relatively low numbers currently, there are concerns that it may diminish Canada’s position as a favourite destination, including with Arabs, Indians and Chinese. In H1, 42k left the country, compared to 263k entering over that period, with official data showing the numbers in 2022 and 2021 were 94k and 86k. Over the past eight years, some 2.5 million have been granted permanent residency, but emigration as a percentage of Canada’s overall population currently stands at about 0.09% – having touched a 0.2% high in the mid 1990s. On average in Canada, about 60% of household income would be needed to cover home ownership costs, but this rises to 80% and 98% in Toronto and Vancouver. Last month, Trudeau’s government capped its target for new residents at a half million per year from 2025 onwards to ease pressure on the housing market.

Having launched in Melbourne in 1972, and having rebranded to Chemist Warehouse in 2000, the pharmacy chain has opened hundreds of outlets and over the fifty-one years in business has remained a private entity. This week, it has been announced that it has agreed with Sigma Healthcare not only to create the biggest pharmacy company in Australia but also to be one of the country’s biggest retail companies in Australia, (with a total value of US$ 5.77 billion). The deal, signed last Monday, confirmed that the parent company of Chemist Warehouse, CW Group Holdings, had entered into a merger agreement with Sigma Healthcare, to create “a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor and retail pharmacy franchisor”. The conglomerate will encompass the whole pharm sector from product creation to selling them instore.

There are now around six hundred Chemist Warehouse stores in four countries, with the majority of them in Australia, forty-two in New Zealand, and six each in Ireland and China. In addition, it owns twenty-one stores under the My Chemist brand and 17 Ultra Beauty stores, located within select Chemist Warehouse stores. It is also part-owner of a number of brands it stocks in its stores, including Bondi Protein Co, Goat Soap, Barely Intimate Skincare, Bambi Mini and the Wagner supplement brand. In addition, not only does Sigma own four different pharmacy brands – Amcal, Discount Drug Stores, Guardian and PharmaSave – with four hundred pharmacies operating under those brands, it also operates another eight hundred pharmacies around Australia. It also has its own brands and private labels, including Amcal-branded items including pain relief, lozenges, vitamins and cold and flu tablets, as well as part-owning specific brands sold at its stores, including Beauty Theory (which sells items like bobby pins and hairbrushes) and Pharmacy Care (which sells skincare, pain relief, baby products and health devices like blood pressure monitors and thermometers). It also owns three of the nine distribution centres that it operates in the country, as well as making its own products, for internal and external sale. When the deal was signed, Sigma estimated that the total sales of products to Chemist Warehouse would generate a minimum of US$ 2.0 billion in revenue in the first year of the contract alone.

In order to overhaul a “broken” migration system, the Australian government indicated that it would tighten visa rules for international students and low-skilled workers that could halve its migrant intake over the next two years., and “bring migration numbers back to normal.”  The new rules would see international students needing to secure higher ratings on English tests and there would be more scrutiny on a student’s second visa application that would prolong their stay. The decision comes after net immigration was expected to have peaked at a record 510k last year, but that it would fall to about 250k over the next two years. the increase in net overseas migration in 2022-23 was mostly driven by international students. The government also intends to “lift the standards” for international students and education providers to ensure that those who come to study do not become “permanently temporary”.

Last Sunday, the Australian Treasurer indicated that foreign buyers of existing homes will have to pay triple the fees on purchases, partly aimed at increasing the supply of affordable housing. Jim Chalmers added “higher fees for the purchase of established homes, increased penalties for those that leave properties vacant, and strengthened compliance activity will help ensure foreign investment in residential property is in our national interest.” Furthermore, Albanese’s centre-left Labour government would also cut application fees for foreign investment in “build to rent” projects to encourage construction of more homes. It is estimated that the changes, just announced, will generate around US$ 300 million the government could invest in priority areas like housing. Only last year, the Treasurer took another strike at overseas buyers after doubling the fees for foreign investors buying assets in the country, which the government said would generate US$ 305 million in extra revenue over four years. Australian property prices are among the highest in the world, with the trend set to continue, with rising demand outstripping supply.

The UK’s Payment Systems Regulator has proposed a cap on fees that credit card firms, including Mastercard and Visa, charge retailers for payments between the EU and the UK. The payments watchdog estimates that the fees, which can get passed on to consumers, cost UK firms up to US$ 250 million in 2022.  The industry regulator opines that some credit card firms have probably raised fees to an “unduly high level” since Brexit. The EU bloc has a cap on so-called “cross-border interchange fees”, which retailers pay when customers in the UK buy from the European trading bloc. This was the same in the UK pre-Brexit but since then, it appears that Mastercard and Visa have “significantly raised” the fees charged to retailers in the UK. The watchdog has proposed an initial, time-limited, cap of 0.2% for debit card transactions, and 0.3% for credit cards, for transactions made online at UK businesses – in line with the EU cap.

The Halifax’s House Price Index has noted house prices rising 0.5% between October and November, but at US$ 355k, the average British home was worth 1.0% less than it was in November 2022. It noted that “the resilience seen in house prices during 2023 continues to be underpinned by a shortage of properties available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand,” as property prices having “held up better than expected.” With mortgage rates starting to come off historic highs, and inflation levels slowly heading south, this could result in a rise in consumer confidence, and an improving picture on affordability for homebuyers. There is a good chance that house prices will weaken in 2023, as the knock-on impact of the fourteen rate hikes, over the previous two years filter through to the market. Next year, sellers may be forced to price their homes more competitively to secure a sale, while mortgage rates are expected to ease further. Other possible sellers may adopt a wait and see approach and put buying plans on hold to see what happens to mortgage rates in the longer term.

On a regional basis, the South-East saw November prices down 5.7% on the year by US$ 28.4k to US$ 468.6k. Not surprisingly, London retains its position for the highest average house prices at US$ 657.4k, despite posting a 3.8% price decline. Northern Ireland recorded the strongest performing UK region, with house prices up 2.3% to US$ 237.7k, whilst in Scotland, house prices were largely flat over the year, but in Wales they fell by 1.5%, where the average house cost US$ 270.4k in November.

Latest data from the ONS, pay growth, excluding bonuses, eased to 7.3% in the quarter ending October – an indicator that earnings are actually slowing but are still outpacing inflation; that being the case, it is likely that the BoE’s next move will be to start shaving rates, from the current 5.25% mark, starting in Q1 2024. For the seventeenth consecutive month, the number of people on payrolls, with November posting a 45k reduction. Despite these falls, overall vacancies totalled 949k – still “well above pre-pandemic levels”. Although inflation has fallen to 4.6%, it is still more than double the BoE’s 2.0% target.

A combination of bad weather and higher interest rates, the UK economy shrank unexpectedly 0.3%, following a 0.2% expansion the previous month. A 0.1% dip was expected, but the services, manufacturing and construction sectors all contracted, with retail and tourism being hit by severe weather in October as Storm Babet lashed the UK. The UK economy has been stagnating and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to speed up growth, but no marked improvement is expected until January 2025, by which time he could well be out of office. The BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, has expressed his concern, (yet again), over the UK economy’s potential to grow, noting “there’s no doubt it’s lower than it has been in much of my working life.” On Wednesday, the Resolution Foundation suggested that Britain was a “stagnation nation” due to poor productivity and a lack of investment in things like skills; it noted that the UK growth had only been 0.5% over the past eighteen months – the weakest rate outside of a recession on record.

Now in its third month of conflict, one side effect of the devastation is that its economy will contract by 3.7% from a growth projection of 3.2% prior to the start of the war. The World Bank estimation is that the decline will equate to about US$ 1.5 billion, in nominal GDP, for 2023 alone. There is widespread concern that there will be long term damage to its economy and, to all intents and purposes, the Palestinian economy has been at a “near-complete standstill” since the conflict broke out in October. To make matters worse, H1 growth slowed to 3.0% annually, largely due to the waning post-pandemic recovery. Gaza’s economy alone has been experiencing a deep contraction, having shrunk by 4.4%, on the year, in H1, driven mainly by a large decline in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors, a result of additional Israeli restrictions on the sale of Gazan products into the occupied West Bank since August 2022. As of the second half of November, about 60% of information and communications technology infrastructure, at least 60% of health and education centres and 70% of commerce-related infrastructure had been damaged or destroyed in Gaza. Furthermore, almost 50% of all primary, secondary and tertiary roads are damaged or destroyed, and more than half a million people are homeless as a result of the conflict. It will obviously take years for the poverty-stricken economy to recover, with the ongoing bombing of Gaza becoming much more than a humanitarian crisis.

At Tuesday’s UN General Assembly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was passed by one hundred and fifty-three member states of the one hundred and ninety-three member bloc. The US was one of ten members to vote against the resolution and the UK one of twenty-three who abstained, and with the death toll now topping 18k, and rising – Shame on you! How many more people will have to die and how much further devastation is needed for a change in your attitude? Come Judgement Day, some stakeholders, will surely pay a high price for either their action or inaction. The question to everyone in the world that sees what is going on is a simple Are We Human?