Rich Man, Poor Man!                                                                   12 January 2024

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The real estate and properties transactions valued at US$ 2.75 billion in total during the week ending 12 January 2024. The sum of transactions was 209 plots, sold for US$ 597 million, and 2,100 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.32 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Hebiah Sixth for US$ 38 million, the second in Business Bay for US$ 29 million and in Palm Jabal Ali for US$ 13 million. Al Hebiah Fifth recorded the most transactions, with forty-four sales, worth US$ 45 million, followed by thirty-three sales, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid for US$ 109 million, and thirty sales, in Madinat Hind 4 valued at US$ 12 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were in Al Wasl for US$ 18 million, followed by one in Al Thanayah for US$ 13 million and in Al Hebiah Fourth for US$ 11 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 621 million; eighty-two properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 218 million.

CBRE estimates that properties, with a value of US$ 1.36 million (AED5 million), classified as ‘prime’ and US$ 2.72 million, (AED10 million), classified as ‘super prime’, saw 10.3k and 3.8k transactions last year – 54.5% and 68.4% higher on the year. The consultancy noted that off-plan sales accounted for 67.2% and 70.8 % of the total transaction volumes. Prime and super-prime areas are defined as Downtown Dubai, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, Palm Jumeirah and District One. Palm Jumeirah registered the highest volume of transactions in both the prime and super-prime market segments, with the total number of ‘prime’ units sold, worth more than US$ 1.36 million, standing at nine hundred and sixty-three and the total number of properties sold above US$ 2.72 million reaching five hundred and ninety-three.

In Q4, average prices within the prime and super prime segments were 22.5% higher at US$ 1.25k and by 20.4% to US$ 1.34k per sq ft The two best performers in the former sector were Jumeirah Bay Island and District One, where average prices grew by 35.6% and 27.2% year-on-year. In the latter, Jumeirah Bay Island and District One recorded the most significant increases in their average sales rates of 28.5% and 22.4%, respectively. It is expected that price rises will not be as high this year but will still reach double-digit growth because of the lack of new supply hitting the market this year – and this trend will continue into 2025 for the same reason.

Arada has launched sales of its luxury project, the Armani Beach Residences at Palm Jumeirah, with prices starting at US$ 5.72 million, US$ 8.72 million, US$ 13.90 million and US$ 16.35 million for 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-bedroom residences. The smallest two-bedroom apartment is 2.7k sq ft, while the largest presidential suite is 43.8k sq ft. The developer noted that average price per sq ft for branded residences in Dubai is US$ 963k per sq ft, and the average price on The Palm is US$ 1.33k – pricing per sq ft at Armani Beach Residences “ranges from US$ 2.18k and above”. The Sharjah-based company did not disclose the prices for the penthouses and two presidential suites. It called on the services of Japanese Pritzker-Prize-winning architect Tadao Ando to design the project comprising fifty-three residences along with the penthouses and two presidential suites. Each apartment will feature fixtures and fittings from Armani/Casa for living spaces, bathrooms and kitchens, as well as floor-to-ceiling glass facades, a circular or linear foyer (a signature Armani concept) and a terrace. Buyers will be flown to Italy to choose their design and meet Georgio Armani, who is personally involved in all of the interior design of Armani/Casa’s work. Other additions will include a resident’s spa, multipurpose function room, cigar lounge, a compact movie theatre, children’s playroom and landscaped deck area, as well as a private beach. Completion is slated for Q4 2026.

Meanwhile, Knight Frank reckons that Dubai’s prime market – including the neighbourhoods of The Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Bay Island – saw a 16% price growth in the year ending September 2023. This year, it sees growth at only 5% in the prime market, while the mainstream market is expected to grow by 3.5%. This is a big difference from the 44.4% hikes of 2021 but Dubai’s prime residential market will still be the third-fastest growing in the world this year, behind Auckland’s 10.0% and Mumbai at 5.5%. Some think that 2024’s growth will slow but still hit double-digit numbers, with the market beginning to tighten in 2025, as recent launches become realty.

With a US$ 100 million investment, Binghatti Properties has acquired a plot of land in Business Bay. The UAE property development brand already has projects in the same location, including the Bugatti Residences by Binghatti, (in partnership with the automotive brand Bugatti), Binghatti’s Burj, and Binghatti Jacob & Co Residences. To add to the developer’s portfolio of branded projects is the newly announced Mercedes-Benz Places by Binghatti in Downtown, Dubai. It is estimated that its current portfolio is in excess of US$ 5.45 billion (AED 20 billion).

Property Finder’s founder, Michael Lahyani, reckons that 2024 average property prices in Dubai will either remain steady or see smaller growth, three years into the Dubai property rally. He expects the luxury sector to see decent growth but on a slower scale than has been seen last year, driven by demand from the high-net-worth individuals and shortage of supply in the market. He noted that “our expectation is volumes to grow 15-20% and prices to remain where they are,” and that the luxury segment can continue to see a bit of growth in price in the double-digit range. The Dubai-based real estate portal also announced that it would become a minority stakeholder, with a 20% stake, in Turkiye’s Hepsiemlak, and provide advisory services, and merge its Turkish subsidiary Zingat with Hepsiemlak, a Doğan Holding company in Türkiye. This move is in line with the Dubai’s firm strategy of expanding its market share in the MENAT region.

As from Monday, 08 January Emaar Hospitality has announced the rebranding of Address Fountain Views to Address Dubai Mall, located on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Boulevard, and connected to both Dubai Mall and the recently opened Chinatown Dubai Mall. The hotel, with seven hundred and eighty-three residences and one hundred and ninety-three hotel rooms, has six restaurants, award-winning spa facilities and other world-class amenities.

In the nine months to September 2023, UAE hotels posted a 27% surge in revenue to US$ 8.77 billion, with 20.2 million guests, 12.0% higher on the year, as occupancy rates came in 6.0% higher to top 75.0%. At a meeting of the Emirates Tourism Council, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, noted that these results play an integral part in ensuring that the sector continues to contribute to the country’s target for its GDP to reach US$ 122.6 billion (AED 450 billion) by the next decade under the ‘We The UAE 2031’ vision.

For the third consecutive year, Dubai has retained its top spot as the top global destination in the 2024 TripAdvisor Travellers’ Choice Awards – the first time, in the survey’s history, that one location has achieved this accolade. Hamdan bin Rashid commented that the city’s “accomplishments in the tourism sector, once thought to be an unattainable dream, is now a tangible reality”; the Crown Prince added that “the accomplishment is due to the visionary Dubai Economic Agenda, under the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai”.

Last year, the UAE federal cabinet introduced new rules concerning the executive regulation of Federal Law No 15 of 2020 on consumer protection. Now it has come into force, with the new law imposing forty-three obligations for businesses, (both physical and online), listed in the updated law, relating to the warranty of a product, prices, invoices and replacement of products. Those companies breaking the rules could face fines of up to US$ 272k. A fine of US$ 27.2k will be imposed on the supplier in case of failure to repair, maintain, provide after-sales services, return goods or offer a refund within a certain time limit after a defect is discovered, whilst the fine could be doubled on the supplier in the event of failure to comply with standard specifications, rules and conditions of safety and health. There are also penalties for misleading advertising and anti-competitive practices. Penalties will be applied, ranging from a warning to fines, and in some instances, they could lead to licence cancellation or deregistration in the case of repeat offences.

At a meeting at his Zabeel Palace Majlis, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid lauded the efforts of Dubai’s Events Security Committee. He praised the Committee for their efforts in securing 6k events since its 2008 inception in 2008, including eight hundred last year, and highlighted the significant contribution made to the key objective of the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) to make the city one of the top three urban economies of the world. The Dubai Ruler also launched the fourth season of the domestic tourism campaign, World’s Coolest Winter 2024, which runs until 20 February. Last year, the campaign contributed US$ 490 million extra hotel revenue, 20% higher on the 2022 return.

The 29th edition of the three-day Dubai International Pharmacy Technologies Conference and Exhibition – DUPHAT 2024 – generated over US$ 2.32 billion in trade deals. DUPHAT is organised annually by INDEX Conferences and Exhibitions – a member of INDEX Holding, and is supported by Dubai Health Authority, American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology, European Federation for Pharmaceutical Sciences, European Society of Clinical Pharmacy, Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia and the European Society of Oncology Pharmacy. According to its chairman, Dr. Ali Al Sayed Hussain, “through DUPHAT, we endeavour to economically and academically support the pharmaceutical industry by cultivating partnerships among stakeholders and professionals within this sector.”

Earlier in the week, HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid announced a ministerial reshuffle in the UAE government. The first was the announcement of the appointment of Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed as Deputy Prime Minister for Financial and Economic Affairs, with him noting that “Maktoum led the Ministry of Finance ably, in addition to a range of economic and commercial issues at the local and federal levels. Moreover, he established balance in our financial policies federally and locally.” Further appointments included Mohammed Bin Mubarak Fadhel Al Mazrouei, as Minister of State for Defence Affairs and Cabinet Member, Mariam Bint Mohammed Saeed Hareb Almheiri, who led the UAE bid in COP28, as Head of the International Affairs Office at the Presidential Court, Dr Amna Bin Abdullah Al Dahhak Al Shamsi as Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Cabinet Member as well as the appointment of Sultan Al Neyadi as the UAE State Minister for Youth. Concluding his series of announcements on X, he messaged “All the best to everyone serving the country and the people. We repeat that 2024 will be a good year, and the most beautiful and greatest in the history of the UAE, God willing.”

Driven by an easing of cost pressures and a hike in new orders, December saw the seasonally adjusted S&P Global Dubai PMI nudge 0.9 higher to 57.7 – its highest level since August 2022; 50 is the threshold between expansion and contraction. The latest survey points to companies posting rapid improvements in sales and activity, while softening cost pressures allowed them to offer greater discounts to customers. Additionally, new order growth accelerated to the second quickest since mid-2019, as both the wholesale and retail sectors witnessed a marked improvement, along with travel/tourism also posting strong growth to end the year. Selling prices decreased at the fastest pace since June, as costs fell on improving supply lines and lower material prices. Improving market conditions and greater client demand drove the increase in new work, also assisted by a dip in output charges. However, overall expenses nudged higher, attributable to wage increases and higher input demand. Job creation moved to a four-month high mainly due to an expansion of operations and increased output requirements. After slipping to a seven-month low, business confidence recovered, with the level of optimism among “the strongest recorded” since before the start of the pandemic.

Dubai must have the most Guinness World Records in the world, with the latest being for building the longest Braille handrail in the world. The one, located at the Dubai Frame, is three hundred and nineteen mt long and eleven centimetres along the frame.

Dubai Investments has announced its first flagship mixed-use development in Africa – the Dubai Investment Park Angola on a 2k-hectare commercial and industrial hub and located along a three-km coastline and a two-km beach stretch. It is planned and designed in line with highlighting DI’s expertise in creating successful mixed-use developments. The agreement sees DI developing the infrastructure and then lease land to developers and investors. Located fifty km from the capital Luanda, it has a robust regional transportation network and excellent connectivity. The project is in alignment with the Ministry of Environment’s regulations and adheres to the UN’s Sustainability Goals.

In line with the 1999 UAE-Lebanon treaty, by which the latter undertook to protect investments made by Emirati entities within its borders, Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group has issued a formal notice against the country for breaching this bilateral investment treaty. The local conglomerate noted that “in particular, Lebanon and its central bank have imposed restrictions preventing Al Habtoor Group from freely transferring its funds amounting to over US$ 44 million from the Lebanese banks.” It is reported that Al Habtoor has invested around US$ 1.0 billion in the country in various projects, including funds placed within the Lebanese banking system, luxury hotels affiliated with Hilton Hotels and Resorts, a shopping mall and a 100k-square-metre leisure destination called Habtoor Land. Only last April, it announced plans to reopen a prominent five-storey mall in Beirut, which shut in March 2020 due to the “societal and economic” Covid-19 impact. The Al Habtoor statement also indicated that “Lebanon has also failed to secure a safe and sound environment for Al Habtoor Group’s businesses and investments. As a result of Lebanon’s actions, Al Habtoor Group has incurred and continues to incur significant losses and damages.”

Recent agreements see DP World entering into several preliminary deals, valued at US$ 3.0 billion dollars, with the Indian state of Gujarat, encompassing the establishment of new ports, terminals and economic zones. Under the agreements, DP World will develop multipurpose deep-draft ports in South Gujarat and around the western coast of the state. It will also develop special economic zones, cargo terminals and private freight stations in various parts of the state. It has also joined forces with Gujarat Maritime Board that could result in additional ports being developed along the coast of Gujarat. In the twenty years, it has operated in the state, the Dubai port operator has invested over US$ 2.5 billion, including projects such as a container terminal in Mundra, along with rail-connected private freight terminals at Ahmedabad and Hazira. In August 2023, it signed a US$ 510 million concession agreement with the Deendayal Port Authority, in the state, to develop, operate and maintain a new 2.19 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) per year mega-container terminal at Tuna-Tekra in Kandla.

The World Bank raised the UAE’s growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 3.7% and 3.8% from their earlier forecast of 3.4% and 3.4%, on the back of a stronger rebound in oil activity and export growth. Last month, the UAE Central Bank increased the national growth forecast by 1.4% to 5.7% due to higher oil production; it expects last year’s growth to be 3.4%, following 7.9% in 2022. For the six-country GCC bloc, growth for this year and next is forecast to be 3.6% and 3.8% – increases of 0.4% and 1.0% – driven by an increase in higher oil production. Further afield, Mena growth for the two years is forecast to be 3.5%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 08 January, 117 points (3.0%) higher the previous three weeks, gained a further 36 points (0.9%) to close the trading week on 4,104 by Friday 12 January 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.06 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.02, closing on US$ 2.12 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.80, US$ 1.58, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.75, US$ 1.59 and US$ 0.38. On 12 January, trading was at 114 million shares, with a value of US$ 68 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, on 05 January 2024.

By Friday, 12 January 2024, Brent, US$ 1.67 higher (2.2%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.61 (0.8%) to close on US$ 78.90. Gold, US$ 26 (1.4%) lower the previous week, nudged US$ 8 higher (0.4%) to trade at US$ 2,054 on 12 January 2024.

Boeing’s troubles go from bad to worse. Last week, it issued a Multi-Operator Message urging operators of the newer 737 Max planes to inspect for a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system; it wanted to ensure all 737 Max planes in service worldwide are checked for similar issues. Last Friday, an Alaskan Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 jet, with one hundred and seventy-seven on board, had reached 4.9k mt (16k ft), when a door of the plane fell off. Fortunately, the plane landed safely in Portland, (and that nobody was sitting next to the affected section). Not surprisingly, the US airline regulator has ordered the grounding of some Boeing 737 Max 9 jets saying it would affect one hundred and seventy-one planes. Boeing’s chief executive, David Calhoun indicated, at a company-wide staff meeting, that the company was approaching the incident, (some may say for a change), with “100% and complete transparency”, and should accept the fault and make amends in the wake of the recent incident.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) confirmed that there were no UK-registered 737 Max 9 aircraft but said “we have written to non-UK and foreign permit carriers to ask inspections have been undertaken prior to operation in UK airspace”. A spokesman noted that flydubai has confirmed it is not impacted by the Federal Aviation Administration’s decision to ground certain Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft after an Alaska Airlines plane was forced to make an emergency landing, and that “the three Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft in our fleet are not affected”.

Alaska Airlines had already placed restrictions on the brand new Boeing plane, only delivered last October, involved in a dramatic mid-air blowout after pressurisation warnings in the days before Friday’s incident, with investigators saying the jet had been prevented from making long-haul flights over water. Pilots had reported pressurisation warning lights on three previous flights made by the specific Alaska Airlines Max 9 involved in the incident. No-one was hurt in Friday’s drama, but it was fortunate that it was flying at 16k ft at the time, and if this had happened when it had reached 39k ft, the results would have been disastrous. On Monday, United Airlines also said it found loose bolts in its Boeing 737 Max fleet, as it carried out inspections.

The big news of the week came with the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to allow Bitcoin to be part of mainstream investing funds, having approved spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Despite this, the SEC warned “Bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that’s also used for illicit activity including ransomware, money laundering, sanction evasion, and terrorist financing,” and that investors should not mistake the new approvals for an endorsement of the currency. ETFs can be purchased by anyone from pension funds to ordinary investors, but this comes after the SEC had previously rejected many earlier requests for approvals, citing concerns about potential for fraud and manipulation. About a dozen investment companies, including Blackrock and Fidelity, have been waiting for months for the SEC to give them the green light to start buying Bitcoin for their own ETFs. It has taken some fifteen years for the traditional banking sector to take Bitcoin seriously, and their entrée into the market will see many taking advantage of cost-free banking and immediate and decentralised, people-powered alternatives. The likes of Fidelity, Blackrock and other investment companies will be able to buy Bitcoin for their own ETFs, without the bother of getting digital wallets or navigating crypto exchanges.

Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest maker of memory chips, has warned that its profits could fall by 35% in Q4, to US$ 2.13 billion, and is much worse than expected as global demand for consumer electronics remains soft along with a build-up of large stocks of the key electronic components in the wake of the pandemic. The tech giant had already reported operating profit in Q3 and Q2 had fallen by 77% and 95%.

A consumer advocacy group filed a lawsuit in the Superior Court in the District of Columbia. against Starbucks alleging the company’s claim that its coffee is ethically sourced is false and misleading. The National Consumers League cited media reports of abuses on farms that supply coffee and tea to Starbucks, and that the labelling – the company is “committed to 100 per cent ethical coffee sourcing” – on its packaging may not be entirely correct. The group said the cases cast doubt on Starbucks’ packaging, which states that the company is “committed to 100% ethical coffee sourcing.” Another incident cited involved a 2022 lawsuit in which police rescued seventeen workers, from a coffee farm in Brazil where they were made to work outdoors, without protective equipment, and lift 130 lb sacks of coffee. It is estimated that the coffee retailer handles around 3% of the global coffee from some 400k farmers in thirty countries. The NCL is asking the court to stop Starbucks from engaging in deceptive advertising and require it to run a corrective ad campaign.

As part of sweeping changes to streamline operations, introduced by its supremo Jane Fraser last year, Citigroup plans to cut 20k jobs – over 10% of its global staff – by the end of 2025. The US bank, which posted a US$ 1.8 billion Q4 loss, has already hived off some of its overseas operations and moved to list its Mexican unit as a standalone firm. The bank, with a current workforce of around 230k, employs more than 16k people in the UK, but details of job losses there are still to be released. Reorganisation costs include US$ 800 million provided for in Q4, with a further US$ 1.0 billion expected this year, with annual savings of US$ 2.5 billion expected in the medium term. Although 2022 revenue rose 4.0% to US$ 78.5 billion, profits tanked 38% to US$ 9.2 billion, compared to the likes of Wells Fargo and JP Morgan posting revenue increases of 11% and 23% to US$ 82.5 billion and US$ 158 billion, along with profits up 40% and 30% respectively.

EVs are becoming increasingly popular in Australia, with sales more than doubling last year to 87.2k units, with its market share rising to 7.2% from 3.1% in 2022. Hybrid vehicle sales were higher, making up 8.1%, (7.6% a year earlier), of the car market, whilst electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 196.9k sales overall, which is 16.2% of the market. This sector of the market will continue to grow, with more EVs, (and charging stations), being made available and prices falling; some point to the rising price of petrol has led to a move to EVs. There is little doubt that 2024 will be the year that EV sales will continue to double on number and will surpass those of hybrids. Despite the hike in sales, it is estimated that Australia is still two times behind other major markets around the world and that a bigger variety of EV models, along with more modern infrastructure, including readily available and reliable charging stations, were needed to ensure sales continued increasing during the coming years. It is reported that last year, car production and sales in China topped a record thirty million.

To the surprise of many, the world’s third largest auto maker by sales is Vietnam’s VinFast which plans to spend up to US$ 2 billion to build an electric vehicle factory in India, the world’s third-largest auto market by sales. This follows the carmaker’s first Indian entrée, after establishing the brand in the US and other major international markets. Initial investment is set at US$ 500 million, with plans to transform the region around port city of Thootukudi into a “first-class electric vehicle production hub,” with annual production capacity at 150k vehicles. It has already expended US$ 4.0 billion to build an EV factory in North Carolina and plans a further US$ 400 million capex in Indonesia to build an electric vehicle factory. It aims to be selling in fifty markets worldwide by the end of 2024. Since 2009, China, the world’s top selling country, has beaten the US in car sales. According to China’s Economic Daily, this significant leap forward signifies a major turning point for the industry, paving the way for further growth and innovation; it also demonstrates the industry’s resilience, vast potential and the power of China’s massive market.

Last month, the US State Department approved a US$ 300 million sale of equipment to help maintain Taiwan’s tactical information systems. Consequently, China, which sees democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, has announced sanctions on five Western defence firms over the latest round of US arms sales to Taiwan, views democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, were “in response to these gravely wrong actions taken by the US”. The five “casualties” were BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat and Data Link Solutions. These sanctions include freezing the assets of the companies and to ban people and organisations in China from engaging them. In his annual New Year’s Eve address, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his claim that Taiwan would “surely be reunified” with China, and noted that Taiwan, with a twenty-three million population, being part of the “same family”.

After a twenty-seven-year partnership, Tiger Woods and Nike have ended their long-term partnership, with the sportswear giant noting that it had been an honour to partner with “one of the greatest athletes the world has ever seen”. When he turned professional, at the age of twenty, in 1996, the golfer signed a five-year US$ 40 million deal and signed multiple further deals with Nike over his career, including a ten-year contract in 2013, worth a reported US$ 200 million. The partnership has proved to be one of the most lucrative in sports history, as fifteen-time major golf champion dominated the world of golf for more than a decade to put him second on the list of men’s major champions, three behind Jack Nicklaus. One study concluded that between 2000 and 2010, Nike recovered 57% of its US$ 181 million investment in Woods in sales of golf balls in the US alone. golfer After years of falling sales, the company stopped selling clubs, bags and balls and shifted its focus into golf footwear and clothes, which included sponsorship deals for another big name in four-time major winner Rory McIlroy. The writing was on the wall when Woods then started playing with Bridgestone golf balls and using TaylorMade clubs.

BBC Panorama has claimed that fast-fashion firm Boohoo put “Made in the UK” labels on potentially thousands of clothes that were actually made in South Asia. The Leicester factory evidently removed the original labels from clothing, including T-shirts and hoodies, shipped from Pakistan and other countries in South Asia, with the factory saying the incorrect labels were down to a misinterpretation of the labelling rules, that took place in the first ten months of 2023. The Thurmaston Lane factory opened two years ago and was promoted by the retailer as a UK manufacturing centre of excellence, offering end-to-end garment production in the UK.

There was a surprise 0.3% rise in US December consumer prices to 3.4%, mainly attributable to higher costs for housing, dining out and car insurance. It is an indicator that inflation is not slowing as quickly as many analysts had expected and may be a precursor that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates at least for the next two months. However, overall, it is heading lower and is well down on the June 2022 9.1% peak. Some products rose at higher rates on the year – car insurance, (20%), some food items, including steak (11%), rents climbed 6.5%, and dining out (5.2%); in contrast, grocery prices were only 1.3% higher, which compares to a 5.2% rise in prices for people choosing to dine out.

Sir Jonathan Thompson, Executive Chair of High Speed 2, confirmed that the London to Birmingham stretch of the HS2 railway could cost more than US$ 83.0 billion in current prices. He added that a rise in the cost of materials, such as concrete and steel, over the past few years have added between US$ 10.21 billion – US$ 12.77 billion. He disagrees with the government’s latest estimate that reckons the project should be delivered at the lower end of US$ 57.45 billion – US$ 68.94 billion. The HS2 supremo said the budget given for the overall programme had been too low to begin with, and that “the cost of delivery is more than the government budgeted, and that is before you begin to account for the extraordinary construction inflation over the last three years or so.”

Many, especially those struggling to get on the housing ladder, will disagree with the comments of the NatWest chairman, Sir Howard Davies, who receives an annual sum of US$ 975k for his labours. Reportedly, he has claimed it is not “that difficult” for people to get on the property ladder in the UK, and that some found it hard to “start the process”, aspiring homeowners “have to save and that is the way it always used to be”. Belatedly, he did concede that he “did not intend to underplay the serious challenges” people face when buying a home. Data shows that over the period 2004 – 2017, UK home ownership declined from 71% to 65%, as house prices headed higher. Such people, like the noble knight, should remember that saving for a home can be a real struggle for so many less fortunate and impossible for an increasing number of the population struggling in this cost-of-living crisis.

According to the Drewry World Container Index, charges for transporting a 40 ft container from China to Europe, via the Red Sea, have surged to about US$ 4k, since Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking commercial shipping only seven weeks ago; data shows that since 21 November 2023, when the attacks started, freight rates have surged 248% from US$ 1.15k, and 140% from US$ 1.17k on  23 December  There are concerns that if the disruption continues, it will result in higher inflation globally. Estimates indicate that these higher rates could add as much as US$ 720k on the cost of each journey, and over US$ 1.0 million for an ultra-large boxship aa operated by the likes of MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, and Asia-based Cosco Shipping, HMM and Evergreen Line, along with oil and gas tanker operators. There are other factors pushing prices higher, including higher ancillary costs, such as surcharges and insurance, (the cost of war risk insurance has doubled in the past week), and as well as a panic in China, owing to fears of insufficient shipping capacity to transport products before the Chinese New Year holiday. It is estimated that port-to-port container rates on the Asia-Europe trade were up 130% compared to early November. The Red Sea carries an estimated nine million bpd of oil shipments, (equating to almost 10% of global demand), 33% of global container traffic and around 12% of global goods trade. The route is a major contributor to Egypt’s already faltering economy, with around 1.5k ships passing through the Suez Canal every month, generating US$ 9.4 billion last fiscal year; little wonder that the El-Sisi government is “anxious to protect this crucial source of income”.

More than seven hundred sub-postmasters were prosecuted by the Post Office after faulty Fujitsu software made it look like money was missing – and presumed stolen by the guardians. Between 1999 to 2015, the Post Office accused about 3.5k operators of theft, fraud and false accounting based on information from its Horizon IT system installed in the late 1990s. By 2010, it is reported that the Post Office knew that there were faults in the software and should have taken action there and then but turned a blind eye to the problem. Sub-postmasters complained about bugs in the system after it falsely reported shortfalls – often for many thousands of pounds. Some attempted to plug the gap with their own money, as their contracts stated they were responsible for any shortfalls. Many faced bankruptcy or lost their livelihoods as a result, whilst some went to prison for false accounting and theft. After twenty years, campaigners won a legal battle to have their cases reconsidered, but to date only ninety-three convictions have been overturned.

It is reported that the Post Office has paid Fujitsu more than US$ 121 million to extend the troubled Horizon IT system for two years after a plan to move to Amazon had to be abandoned, as costs and delays still make its Horizon project unreliable and difficult to operate. In 2005, the Japanese IT firm had won the contract to install computer terminals in over 17k Post Office branches around the UK, it called it “the biggest non-military IT project in Europe”. It is still in use and although designed to automate and simplify everything from selling stamps to paying pensions, it has failed miserably and is held responsible for one of the most widespread miscarriages of justice in British history.

In its latest report, the World Bank has warned that the global economy is set to grow at its slowest pace – 0.2% lower on the year at 2.4% – since the pandemic, driven by higher interest rates and by conflicts in Ukraine and the ME; notwithstanding the pandemic, this would be the lowest since 2009. Unfortunately, and as usual, many developing countries will be worst affected not helped by high levels of debt and limited access to food; this could impact over a third of the world’s 8.1 billion population. The higher cost of borrowing money continues to slow the global economy, making it more expensive for the world’s seventy-five poorest countries to raise much needed finance. The World Bank estimates that “at the end of 2024 we project that all advanced economies will have a per capita income that is higher than what they had before Covid but that the average income of an individual in an emerging economy will be 75% of the pre-covid level, while it could be as low as 66% in the poorest countries. Overall, the World Bank is forecasting that the five years to the end of 2024 will add up to the slowest half decade of global economic growth in thirty years. Rich Man, Poor Man!