Get Away With It?                                                                        23 February 2024

For the second consecutive week, there are no weekly property statistics readily available for the week ending 23 February.

Interesting figures from Australia’s CoreLogic show the price gap between apartments and standalone houses has widened by 45%, (equating to US$ 193k), since March 2020 and January 2024, driven by soaring land values, scarcity of houses available for purchase and a desire for more space are keeping prices substantially higher compared to units. The report also noted that in the almost four-year period, house prices in the capital cities increased by US$ 157k, compared to apartments’ US$ 43k. The trend is still apparent in the shorter term, with houses rising US$ 61k (11.0%) but units only by US$ 27k (6.9%). All capital cities show similar rises, but it was more marked in Sydney where pre-pandemic prices of houses showed a 33% premium which has since risen to its current 68% level. Dubai realty paints a similar landscape.

Binghatti Holding has announced that it is to launch a three-year US$ 500 million Sharia-compliant bond, as it strives to diversify its funding base. The Dubai-based property developer is set to build the world’s tallest residential tower – Binghatti Burj – in a partnership between Binghatti and Jacob & Co. On Tuesday, the firm announced that it was preparing for a “significant financial milestone” in the coming days, subject to market conditions. Last year, two other leading developers raised money via sukuks – in October, Damac Properties raised US$ 300 million and last May, Aldar Investment Properties, the real estate management unit of the emirate’s largest listed developer, Aldar Properties raised US$ 500 million through its debut green sukuk.

Edgnex Data Centres by Damac and Vodafone are investing US$ 100 million to take advantage of Turkiye’s burgeoning digital transformation sector. The partnership is to construct a new data centre project in Izmir and will have a capacity of six megawatts and is expected to be completed by 2025. It will offer “end-to-end services” and be positioned as a “one-stop-shop”, connecting to Europe through terrestrial and submarine cables. The government’s Digital Transformation Office noted that it was introducing a broad digital transformation strategy, and is “exerting all efforts” to help the country “not only consume technology, but also produce technology by using its resources effectively”. Statista reckons that Izmir already has seven data centres, tied with the capital Ankara and Bursa, while Istanbul has forty, and estimates that revenue in the country will grow at CAGR of 5.8% to move from its current value of US$ 1.62 billion to reach US$ 2.0 billion by 2028.

As expected, DXB, posting an annual record 31.7% hike in passenger numbers to 87.0 million, surpassed its previous record of 86.4 million that was recorded in pre-pandemic 2019. Flight movements also hit a record 416k flights, 21.3% higher compared to 2022. The forecast for this year is an expected 88.2 million, which is still 1.1 million shy of the airport’s record number of 89.1 million recorded in 2018. DXB is currently connected to two hundred and sixty-two destinations across one hundred and four countries, via one hundred and two international carriers. The leading countries, with the most traffic, are India, Saudi Arabia, UK, Pakistan, the US, Russia and Germany, with 11.9 million passengers, 6.7 million, 5.9 million, 4.2 million, 3.6 million, 2.5 million and 2.5 million. London retained its position as the top city destination with 3.7 million passengers, followed by Riyadh, with 2.6 million, and Mumbai’s 2.5 million. Last year, the airport handled cargo – down 4.5% – to 1,806k million tonnes.

Its seems that some of India’s top airlines could take note of the success seen at DXB where last year, the airport processed a record seventy-seven million bags, with a success rate reaching 99.8% in handling operations. This week, India’s Bureau of Civil Aviation Security directed seven airlines including carriers like Air India, Vistara and IndiGo, to implement necessary measures to ensure timely delivery of baggage, noting that passengers’ luggage should be delivered to them within thirty minutes after landing, with a 26 February deadline to comply with the order. Late baggage delivery has been a persistent problem across airports and whether this directive has any impact remains to be seen.

Flydubai posted its largest-ever annual profit, jumping 75% to US$ 572 million, driven by a record number of passengers, amid booming demand for air travel – and despite high fuel prices, (accounting for 32% of total costs), and supply-chain disruption. Revenue increased by 23.0%, to US$ 3.05 billion, as passenger numbers increased by 31% to 13.8 million, bringing the total carried to 108 million, since its 2009 debut flight. By the end of 2023, flydubai added thirteen new Boeing 737 aircraft to its fleet, increasing its capacity by 27% to 40,292 million available seat km, and ending the year with eighty-four aircraft – twenty-nine 737-800s, fifty-two 737 Max 8s and three 737 Max 9 jets; three 737-800 planes were returned to the lessors at the end of their lease agreement. Because of its well-publicised problems, Boeing has had to cut its production levels; so as to meet the surge in travel demand and add capacity during peak travel periods and has been unable to supply all planes ordered by the Dubai carrier; accordingly, flydubai has had to sign an agreement with Smartwings for six wet-leased aircraft. This year, it expects to receive a further twelve new Boeing 737s. During 2023, it also expanded its route network with seventeen destinations, ending the year with a network of one hundred and twenty-two destinations in fifty-two countries. Last year, the carrier added a further 1k to its payroll, (of which 73% were pilots, cabin crew and engineers), to bring its total workforce to over 5.5k.

With this week’s announcement that it had secured a multi-year partnership with Wimbledon, Emirates is now the Official Airline Partner for all four tennis Grand Slam tournaments, including the US Open, Roland Garros and the Australian Open. As the Official Airline Partner of The Championships, Wimbledon, Emirates will take the world of tennis to new heights, with exciting activations on-ground. The Championships is set to take place from 01 – 14 July at the All England Lawn Tennis Club. Through the partnership, Emirates will enjoy a wide-range of benefits including on-court branding in Centre Court and No.1 Court, on-site activations to engage with tennis fans, marketing, digital, and social media rights, as well as hospitality tickets. Deborah Jevans, Chair of the All-England Club, posted that “Wimbledon is joining forces with a premium brand and one of the world’s leading sponsors of tennis, and sport more generally.” Emirates has been the Official Airline of the ATP Tour since 2013 and Premier Partner since 2016. The airline’s portfolio includes some of the most high-profile events on the ATP and WTA tours. EK also supports sixty other tennis tournaments, as well as having supported the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships since its 1993 inception.

Emirates Flight Catering has fully acquired Bustanica, the world’s largest indoor vertical farm, which is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport at Dubai World Central. The facility, encompassing 330k sq ft, has the capacity to grow more than one million kg of exceptional quality leafy greens a year, while using 95% less water than conventional agriculture. Bustanica’s produce, such as lettuce, spinach, parsley, and kale, is grown without pesticides or herbicides, and is 100% clean, fresh, and nutrient-rich. Produce from this innovative agriculture venture is used on all EK flights, and other airlines, and is available across the country’s major retailers including Spinney’s, Waitrose, Carrefour, and Choithrams. Furthermore, Bustanica will also help enhance the country’s food and water security.

The Roads and Transport Authority announced that transportation in Dubai increased by 13.0% on the year to 702 million passengers in 2023. Public transportation in Dubai, managed and controlled by the RTA includes Dubai Metro, Dubai Tram, taxis, smart rental vehicles public transportation buses, and marine transportation (abras, water taxis, water buses, and ferries).The authority is continuing to expand and develop the mass transit system, which will include the start of implementation of the  thirty km, fourteen station, Dubai Metro Blue Line project.

On Monday, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid toured the twenty-ninth edition of Gulfood – the largest global annual global food and beverage sourcing event, drawing 5.5k exhibitors and visitors from one hundred and ninety countries. Dubai’s Ruler noted that the five-day event serves as a major platform for accelerating global collaboration in the food sector, and that such events are aligned with the goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, to double the emirate’s GDP, and establish it as one of the world’s top three urban economies. He also added that the emirate was well positioned to play a key role in enhancing global food security due to its position as a hub for technology and innovation, and its high-quality infrastructure and connectivity. He was also briefed on technological advancements in the F&B industry, primarily targeted at enhancing efficiency, reducing food waste, reducing expenditure and tightening supply chains. Gulfood 2024 started on Monday at the Dubai World Trade Centre, with it expected to be the biggest yet, with 49% of the 5.5k+ confirmed exhibitors participating for the first time. Under the theme ‘Real Food, Real Business’, Gulfood 2024 will bring together global brands as well as thousands of new exhibitors to showcase authentic food products, ingredients, and culinary practices, that could result in excess of US$ 12 billion in commercial deals.

May will see the twenty-third Airport Show take place in Dubai – the world’s largest annual event dedicated to the airport industry. The B2B event, taking place at the Dubai World Trade Centre, will have more than one hundred and fifty exhibitors from more than twenty countries and 7.5k visitors from over thirty countries. The Airport Show will have co-located events – ATC Forum, Airport Security Middle East, and the 11th edition of the Global Airport Leaders Forum). HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed noted that the “Airport Show will remain the best venue to select and source the cutting-edge technologies and newest innovative products to better the airport operations.”

With an estimated US$ 350 million investment, FedEx Express confirmed that it would be building a new Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and Africa (MEISA) hub at Dubai World Central Airport in Dubai South. The facility was officially inaugurated by Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed, President of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, Chairman of Dubai Airports and Chairman and Chief Executive of Emirates Airline and Group. The 57k sq mt structure will have advanced technologies that include automated sort systems that enhance the efficiency, accuracy, and speed of package processing and distribution from the facility. The hub also boasts two automated high-speed x-ray machines, equipped with AI to efficiently scan goods and enhance security. Additionally, a 170 sq mt cold storage area caters to a wide range of temperature-sensitive shipments.

Despite a decline in the international movement of goods and services, the country’s non-oil foreign trade topped a record US$ 953 billion (AED 3.5 trillion) last year, bolstered by its economic diversification plans; the split between goods and services was 74.3./25.7. The UAE’S trade, with its leading ten partners, expanded 26% in 2023, with his HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noting that “we indicated at the beginning of 2023 that it will be a record year for the economy … and the UAE has cemented new bridges of co-operation through comprehensive partnership agreements in 2023,” and that .“the UAE today is at the heart of the global trade flow and its economic commitments with everyone continue. Our motto will always be that we say what we do and do what we say.” There is no doubt that the UAE is well on course” to achieve its non-oil trade target of AED 4 trillion, (US$ 1.09 trillion) by 2031. Non-oil exports of goods now make up 17.1% of the country’s total non-oil foreign trade, compared with 13.0% in 2018.

With an initial target of stimulating more than US$ 327 million in new international trade, DP World, in partnership with Adroit Overseas Canada and Al Amir Foods, is to construct a 200k metric tonnes facility, spanning a quayside area of nearly 100k sq mt; it is also expected to enhance bulk handling by about 750k MT.  The project – over two phases – will also comprise processing and packaging units, and, according to DP World’s Sultan bin Sulayem, “will add world-class infrastructure to our flagship port, support national efforts to strengthen food security and significantly expand our flourishing agricultural trade ecosystem in Dubai”. Jebel Ali Port currently handles about 73% of the UAE’s food and beverage trade by value. The National Food Security Strategy 2051 aims to put the UAE at the top of the Global Food Security Index by then. In addition, the country is set to introduce measures, over the next five years, to boost the contribution of food and agriculture to its economy by US$ 10 billion and create 20k jobs.

The UAE has ordered building material providers to revert to previous prices or face hefty fines of up to US$ 272k that will be handed out for non-compliance. In order to maintain fair pricing across markets, the Ministry will implement measures to curb unjustifiable price hikes for materials, particularly construction items. It also added that it aims to promote fair competition, prevent monopolistic practices, and ensure consumer-friendly markets in collaboration with all industry stakeholders.

The good news of the week is that, after two years on the Financial Action Task Force’s “grey list”, the country may be taken off it, after addressing shortcomings in its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures. Some investors will shun investing in countries on the “grey List” and will only invest in jurisdictions with strong AML and CTF frameworks to reduce risks associated with financial crimes This move will prove a boon to the country’s economy, as it will boost international investor confidence and attract more foreign direct investment. It will attract more asset managers who will see the UAE as a safer and more stable environment, following the delisting and evens the playing field more in the country’s favour on the international stage. FATF acknowledged that the UAE made progress in areas such as facilitating money-laundering investigations, imposing sanctions on non-compliance at financial institutions, and increasing prosecutions.

China continues to be the UAE’s leading trading partner, followed by India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Japan and Oman. Following the implementation of Cepa, Turkey’s trade figures have more than doubled to account for 5.1% of total non-oil trade, while trade with Hong Kong grew 47.9% and India by 3.9%; trade with the US  and China rose 20.1% and 4.2%.The value of non-oil exports increased by 16.7%, to US$ 120.16 billion, with gold, aluminium, oils, cigarettes, jewellery, copper wire and ethylene polymers topping the list of the country’s most important exports of goods. Last year, there were also increases in reexports and imports – up 6.9%, to US$ 188.01 billion, and by 14.2%, to US$ 381.47 billion; the top goods imported were gold, telephones, petroleum oils, cars and diamonds. The country’s services trade surplus grew to US$ 56.40 billion in 2023, driven by the travel and tourism industry, with tourist numbers 19.4% higher on the year at 17.15 million. Trade in services reached US$ 263.49 billion, of which US$ 159.95 billion was in services exports, including in ICT, professional/financial services, education, medical tourism, Islamic financial services, logistics and creatives.

Dr Ahmed Habib a climate expert from the National Centre of Meteorology confirmed, “we conducted twenty-seven cloud seeding operations between 11 – 15 February, targeting clouds with favourable conditions, characterised by strong updrafts and high humidity. These missions aimed to enhance rainfall in the country.” According to authorities from the country’s meteorological department, the recorded rainfall from last week is equivalent to the rain received by the UAE three decades ago, noting that “the eastern part of the country received 317 mm of rainfall in 1988,” adding that this year, the Umm Al Ghaf station recorded a maximum of 224.1 mm of rainfall. This comes after a drier December, compared to previous years during the same month.

e& posted a 2023 record consolidated net profit of US$ 2.81 billion – 3.0% higher on the year; revenue grew 8.3% to US$ 14.66 billion, driven by the Group’s successful business transformation, expanding business verticals and diversifying revenue streams. Ebitda rose 3.7% to US$ 7.11 billion – a margin of 49%. Subscriber numbers rose 3.0% to over fourteen million, whilst its total aggregate base, rose 4%, to 169 million. The Board proposed a dividend of US$ 0.109 per share for H2 2023, representing a total dividend of US$ 0.218 per share. It also recommended a new progressive dividend policy with an increment of US$ 0.008 every year starting from 2024, bringing the dividend-per-share to US$ 0.242 by 2026, subject to shareholders’ approval.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 19 February, 30 points (0.7%) higher the previous week, shed 33 points (0.8%) to close the trading week on 4,226 by Friday 23 February 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.19 higher the previous fortnight, shed US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 2.19 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.96, US$ 1.78, and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.65, US$ 4.81, US$ 1.74 and US$ 0.36. On 23 February, trading was at 100 million shares, with a value of US$ 79 million, compared to 214 million shares, with a value of US$ 90 million, on 16 February 2024.

By Friday, 23 February 2024, Brent, US$ 11.26 higher (6.4%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 1.76 (2.1%) to close on US$ 81.71. Gold, US$ 29 (1.4%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 12 (0.5%) to trade at US$ 2,051 on 16 February.

As air travel quickly recovers from the impact of the pandemic, the civil aviation industry is readying for an air travel boom which will necessitate massive capex for expansions and redevelopments. The ME sector is worth an estimated US$ 60.0 billion and will see continuing high growth – air connectivity in the region. had seen a 26% growth in the three years to 2022, (which does include the Covid period which saw air travel slump). It is estimated that the one hundred and  two ME airports will handle 1.1 billion passengers by 2020, more than double 2019’s return of four hundred and five million; to cater for this capacity increase, total investment is predicted to be around US$ 151.0 billion. According to a CAPA report:

• four hundred and twenty-five major construction projects were at existing airports worldwide, with US$ 450 billion in investments
• two hundred and twenty-five new airport projects, of which more than 70% of the investment was in Asia Pacific
• 1.07k airport investors, of which 258 were airport operators, groups or consortiums
• about 68% of all projects were based on terminals – either expansions or new developments

A recent report has disclosed that the global airport construction market grew to $1.14 trillion in 2023 and would reach $1.80 trillion by 2030.

With surging revenue, Rolls Royce’s 2023 underlying profits more than doubled to US$ 2.0 billion, with expectations that this will rise by at least 6% this year, attributable to a surge in demand from the aviation sector, an improvement in the company’s power business and rising defence orders. Its chief executive, Tufan Erginbilgic, noted that “our transformation has delivered a record performance in 2023, driven by commercial optimisation, cost efficiencies and progress on our strategic initiatives.”

In the US, theSecurities and Exchange Commission has alleged that the husband of a BP employee, Tyler Loudon, made US$ 1.76 million in illegal profits. The watch dog claimed that he had heard some of his wife’s telecons, about BP’s takeover of TravelCenters, leading him to buy 46.5k shares in the firm. His wife,  an M&A manager at the energy firm, was working on the acquisition. When the deal went through, TravelCenters share price rose nearly 71% and Mr Loudon allegedly immediately sold all of his newly bought shares for a profit. The SEC said, “we allege that Mr Loudon took advantage of his remote working conditions and his wife’s trust to profit from information he knew was confidential.” Mr Loudon confessed to his wife about buying the TravelCenters shares after the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority began asking questions about the BP deal and who was “in the know”. She then reported the insider trading episode to her supervisor, and despite BP finding no evidence that she knowingly leaked the information about the deal to her husband, or knew he had bought the shares, her employment was terminated. Three months later in June 2022, she initiated divorce proceedings.

Late last week, there were reports that the owner of Waterstoneswas plotting to invest US$ 882 million in a bid to acquire Currys, the listed electrical goods retailer, with its current market value at US$ 662 million; its share value has dropped by about a third over the past twelve months. Elliott Advisors, best-known for its activist sieges against the boards of some of the world’s largest companies, then made a formal proposal to the board, but the proposal “significantly undervalued” the company. Like other major UK retailers, Currys has been impacted by high inflation and soaring cost of living expenses, as witnessed by a dip in like-for-like sales during the crucial Christmas trading period. The company, founded in 1884, was first listed in 1927 and in 2021 was rebranded under its current name, having absorbed shops operating under brands including PC World, Dixons and Carphone Warehouse. Currys, which employs more than 15k people in the UK, trades from about three hundred stores, and also in eight countries, including Denmark, Finland and Sweden under the Elkjop brand. In total, it employs 28k people and operates more than eight hundred stores.

To help with production of its “next generation” of sports cars, including its luxury DBX707 SUV, Aston Martin is planning to recruit four hundred additional employees at its two UK factories. The firm said demand for the SUV, and the introduction of other models, led to the move and that recruitment had already started.

Embattled retailer, The Body Shop, (which went into administration last week), has confirmed that it plans to close half of its two hundred stores in the UK – including seven on the day of the announcement, Tuesday 20 February; it will also cut 40% of roles, (roughly three hundred staff), at its London-based head office. The seven now closed are Surrey Quays, Oxford Street Bond Street, Canary Wharf, Cheapside, Nuneaton, Ashford Town Centre and Bristol Queens Road. Following the closures, “more than half” of the remaining one hundred and ninety-eight outlets will remain open. Administrators said that the brand’s current portfolio is “no longer viable” after “years of unprofitability” and that, as part of the restructuring, there will be a “renewed focus” on products, online sales channels and wholesale. The brand’s global franchise partners are not impacted with this portion of the business said to be “central” to The Body Shop’s long-term international strategy.

These are halcyon days for the banking sector, including Europe’s biggest bank, HSBC which registered an 80% surge in 2023 pre-tax profits to a staggering US$ 30.30 billion. (What term does the industry use for price gouging?). Chief executive, Noel Quinn, noted that “our record profit performance in 2023 enabled us to reward our shareholders with our highest full-year dividend since 2008.” HSBC makes most of its profits in Asia, especially China and Hong Kong.

Earlier, NatWest Group posted its highest yearly profit, at US$ 7.84 billion, since just before the GFC in 2007; it also announced a US$ 379 million share buyback. The UK government still owns 35% of the bank since it bailed it out to the tune of US$ 58.14 billion fifteen years ago during the financial crisis. Many UK taxpayers will not be too pleased that it also announced a US$ 450 million staff bonus but a little happier to see the back of the bank’s chairman, Sir Howard Davies. He has been roundly criticised for claiming that it was not “that difficult” for first-time buyers to get on the property ladder and that “you have to save, and that is the way it always used to be.” He is also the same person who declared that NatWest’s board had “full confidence” in CEO Alison Rose after she discussed the closure of Nigel Farage’s account with a journalist at the BBC – next day, it was announced that she was to step down. She will not be paid US$ 6.4 million in share awards and also a bonus of US$ 3.5 million, but will receive US$ 3.5 million in pay, pension contributions and benefits.

Last month, the Financial Conduct Authority commended a probe whether people had been paying too much for car finances, arranged by brokers who earned commission on the interest rates that they set for customers. Consequently, Lloyds Bank, which also owns the Halifax, Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows brands, has set aside US$ 570 million to cover the potential cost of an investigation into car finance deals. The FCA will be investigating whether people, who believe they were charged too much for car loans, were owed compensation. Under what were called discretionary commission arrangements, some lenders had allowed car dealers to adjust interest rates on loans, which would improve the commission they received – the higher the interest rate, the higher their commission; such commissions were banned by the FCA in 2021. The bank is likely to be the most exposed of all financial institutions because it owns Black Horse, one of the UK’s largest motor finance providers. It is estimated the Financial Ombudsman has received 17k complaints to date about motor finance commission. To add to its woes, the bank was being investigated by the financial watchdog, relating to its money-laundering rules and regulations. Almost as an aside, the bank posted a 57% surge in 2023 pre-tax profits to US$ 9.50 billion, with an underlying net interest income – the difference between the money it charges for loans and pays out for savings – 5.0% higher at US$ 17.74 billion.

Nvidia posted an unbelievable 265% surge in revenue, for the quarter ending 28 January, to US$ 22.0 billion, with revenue more than doubling to US$ 60.9 billion. Furthermore, the world’s most valuable chip maker also forecast a 233% jump in its revenues for the current quarter, beating analysts’ estimates. In addition to its AI chips, sales at the firm’s data centres have grown fivefold over the past twelve months. Gross profit for the final three months of its financial year rose by 338% to US$ 16.8 billion, and annual gross profit by 188% to US$ 44.3 billion. Its stock market value has soared by 225% over the last year, with its share price jumping by more than 9% in extended New York trading on Wednesday.

Yesterday, the Nikkei 225 reached a record 39,099 – finally surpassing its previous record set in December 1989. In line with other global bourses, Japan’s main stock exchange was boosted by Nvidia’s strong earnings driven by demand for its AI processors, and the weakness of the yen, but despite the country falling into a technical recession. Three years ago, the benchmark index tanked, losing almost 60% in value, and since then, the economy has been struggling with deflation.

As shipping around the Cape of Good Hope surged last week, the Suez Canal cargo traffic more than halved, with the impact of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea gaining traction. For the week, ending 13 February, Suez Canal shipping volumes sank by 55% on the year while volumes around the Cape of Good Hope rose nearly 75%, as many other shipping companies decided to take the safer but longer/more expensive route. The total number of ships passing through the waterway last month fell 36.8%, on the year, to 1,362 vessels.  Not only is the country suffering from reduced revenue but it has also been affected by reduced tourism numbers, record inflation now slightly declining to 29.8%, and a massive US$ 164.5 billion external debt burden. According to the IMF, its talks with Egypt “continue to make excellent progress” for a comprehensive support package, and that “the IMF team and the Egyptian authorities have agreed on the main elements of a programme, and the authorities have expressed a strong commitment to it.”

Official Chinese data indicated that there was a welcome 47% hike in domestic tourism, over the Lunar New Year to US$ 87.96 billion Two of the main drivers behind these figures were the holiday, which finished last Sunday, 18 February 2024, was a day longer than usual and came after years of pandemic lockdowns and restrictions, which were lifted in early 2023. There were 474 million domestic trips over the eight-day celebration – 34% higher on the year and up 19% on pre-Covid 2019 figures, however, it seems that average spend per trip was 9.5% lower compared to 2019. There is some hope that the Year of the Dragon will see more growth in China’s economy that had been rattled in the previous Year of the Rabbit by issues such as another property market crisis, weak exports, concerns about falling consumer prices, and foreign direct investment by foreign business falling to its lowest level in thirty years.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has hit back at claims made by former Post Office chairman Henry Staunton that he had been sacked because she had told him: “someone’s got to take the rap.” He had been Post Office chairman since December 2022, but left the post last month after Ms Badenoch said “new leadership” was needed to tackle the scandal. He added more fuel to the flames by adding that he was also told by a senior civil servant “to stall on spend on compensation and on the replacement of Horizon, and to limp, in quotation marks – I did a file note on it – limp into the election.” To nobody’s surprise Ms Badenoch has come out fighting saying the comments were a “disgraceful misrepresentation” of their conversation. Meanwhile, there are still hundreds of sub postmasters waiting for compensation, with some still tarnished by wrongful prosecution in UK courts.

A BBC report claims that in 2015, the Cameron government were aware that the Post Office had ditched a secret investigation, that had covered the previous seventeen years, that might have helped wrongly accused postmasters prove their innocence. It appears that Ministers were told of the investigation but after postmasters began legal action, it was suddenly stopped. Although the Post Office would surely have known then that Horizon’s creator, Fujitsu, could remotely fiddle with sub-postmaster’s cash accounts, in 2017, it argued in court, that it was impossible. There is a distinct possibility that the Post Office may have broken the law – and the government did nothing to prevent it.

In a last-minute attempt to finalise a landmark financial settlement before the government publishes legislation that will establish an independent football regulator, the English Premier League has called an emergency meeting of its 20 “shareholders” (clubs). The aim is to be able to finalise a New Deal for the seventy-two English Football league teams in the three lower divisions, before 29 February. That will be the date that Lucy Frazer, the Culture Secretary, publishes the Football Governance Bill, which intends to hand a new watchdog power to impose a financial settlement on the sport. Reports indicate that this deal will cost EPL teams between US$ 1.057 billion and US$ 1.168 billion, with the final figure dependent upon the payment of an US$ 111 million sum for the current season. Discussions were on track with an imminent settlement on the cards until last December, Richard Masters, the Premier League chief executive, notified clubs that it was calling a halt to further talks with the EFL because of divisions about the scale and structure of the proposed deal. There has been significant unrest among Premier League clubs over the cost of the subsidy to the EFL, as well as the lack of certainty about the regulator’s powers and other financial reforms being driven forward by the Premier League. The EPL has also other problems to face, the most prominent being the possible fresh fight looming with Manchester City over the associated party transaction rules which most affect clubs with state, private equity or multi-club ownership structures. Then there is the problem of the US$ 5.0 billion chasm between the combined revenues of the twenty EPL clubs and those of the seventy-two EPL clubs.

The UK’s public finances posted a surplus of US$ 21.11 billion in January (the last set of public figures to be released before the Chancellor’s budget next month); this was more than double the same return in January 2023. The exchequer is bereft of funds, despite this surplus, and normally any tax cuts or government spending would not be even considered but with a general election sometime later in the year, Jeremy Hunt will try and “pull a rabbit out of the hat”. Overall, the UK’s debt has risen compared to twelve months earlier and remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s, equating to 96.5% of the size of the economy, measured by GDP.

Brad Banducci was in the news earlier in the week after he was grilled on air over alleged price-gouging tactics used by Woolworths, the country’s largest retailer and amid a spiky, tense and disastrous interview, he just walked out on the reporter. The boss of the Australian supermarket giant was in the news again later in the week after he announced his resignation. Woolworths and Coles account for some 65% of the market and there has been widespread disapproval of some of business practices at a time when the majority of Australians are facing a cost-of-living crisis, not helped by rocketing shop prices, and seeing Woolworths posting a massive US$ 608 million H1 profit, partly attributable to growing margins on its food businesses. Little wonder that it is on the end of another investigation from the nation’s competition watchdog over pricing practices. There are reports that the departing chief executive could be in line for a US$ 16 million pay-out, if both his and Woolworths’ performance targets are met in full. His leaving is the third sudden and early departure of leading Australian executives following Qantas’ Alan Joyce being forced out last September and RBA governor Philip Lowe, failing to secure an extension of his term. All three resignations came after heavy and sustained public criticism, which carried onto social media. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says something is clearly “going wrong” with supermarket pricing, but he won’t take a hammer to the Coles and Woolworths duopoly because Australia is “not a Soviet country”. How do they Get Away With It?