Spend! Spend! Spend!                                                     22 November 2024

Betterhomes, noting that the Dubai October rental market is 15% lower on the year, commented there were a total of 42.1k leasing transactions, with notable shifts in tenant preferences. The total was split between renewals and leases 59:41, with Al Sufouh, Motor City and Dubai South increasing in popularity; Al Sufouh’s average apartment stands at US$ 34.1k and Motor City villas at US$ 86.3k. For apartments, Dubai Marina, Business Bay, and Jumeirah Lake Towers were the leading three rental communities, whilst Arabian Ranches 3, Damac Hills, and Dubai Hills 2 were the villa leaders. Statistics showed that average apartment, villa and townhouse rents in Dubai’s top communities were US$ 32.7k, US$ 43.3k and US$ 109.3k.

Meanwhile on the sales side, transactions, at 19.4k, were 77% higher on the year. Total transaction values reached US$ 13.70 billion, with the average price per sq ft climbing 17% to US$ 401k. 67% of sales were for off-plan properties. Community-wise, the three most popular apartment locations were Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle, and Dubai Hills Estate and for villas, Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Land, and Arabian Ranches. Average sale prices stood at US$ 401k  for apartments and US$ 807k for townhouses.

Another ‘new player’ in the sector seems to be the ‘island living’ concept, first introduced by Nakheel and Palm Jumeirah. It seems that the likes of Damac restarted the trend with its Lagoons project, post-Covid, and Al Futtaim have both jumped on the bandwagon. Damac Islands, located in Dubailand, has entry prices of US$ 613k (four-bedroom units, with a built up area of 2.21k sq ft) and US$ 1.72 million (six bedrooms and built-up area of 4.44k sq ft). At the other end of the scale would see Palm Jebel Ali and Jumeirah Bay villas starting at US$ 5.18 million upwards. There is also ‘Dubai Islands’ from Nakheel, while Tilal Al Ghaf by Majid Al Futtaim will have two ‘island’ hubs, where prices are already setting new record highs.

It is reported that Neymar Jr has paid US$ 54 million to acquire a penthouse at the Bugatti Residences in Dubai. The Brazilian footballer’s new home is part of the Sky Mansion collection within the project. The penthouse includes a private elevator, that transports vehicles directly into the unit, and a private swimming pool with views of the Downtown Dubai skyline. Binghatti Properties said that the deal was at the world’s first development featuring the branding of the iconic auto company.

Mercer, in its annual Total Remuneration Survey Overall, indicates that average salaries in the UAE, (across more than seven hundred companies, and several sectors), in 2025 will increase by 4.0%, across all industries; the study also forecast that 28.2% of companies were planning to increase headcount next year. Three sectors – consumer goods, the life sciences and technology – are expected to see increases higher than the 4.0%, at 4.5%, 4.2% and 4.1%. Employers across industries also said they plan to provide all employees, regardless of level, the same salary increases.

In the first nine months of 2024, Dubai International Chamber attracted an annual 68.8% increase in new companies, at one hundred and fifty-seven, including a 117% increase in multinational companies. Over the same period, it welcomed a total of one hundred and eighteen SMEs – a 57% rise on the year. It also supported the expansion of seventy-five local companies into new global markets – 241% annualised increase – by assisting them with increasing international exports or establishing a physical presence within their target markets. YTD, the chamber organised two trade missions to SE Asia and West Africa as part of the ‘New Horizons’ initiative, which enables Dubai-based companies to join trade missions to carefully selected international markets. More than eight hundred and thirty bilateral business meetings were organised between participating companies from Dubai and their counterparts in these markets to explore investment opportunities and joint economic partnerships. The Chamber signed four MoUs with several entities from Morocco and one with the Dakar Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture.

With DXB welcoming 68.6 million passengers in the nine months to 30 September (and 23.7 million passengers, a 6.3% annual increase, in Q3), it is set to break traffic records in 2024; the total flight movements for the first nine months were at 327.7k. There is every reason to believe that the airport will reach its annual budget of 91.9 million which would be a new record. India remained the top destination market, (with 8.9 million travellers) followed by Saudi Arabia, (5.6 million), the UK, (4.6 million), Pakistan, (3.4 million) and the USA, with the key city destinations being London, Riyadh, Mumbai, and Jeddah accounting for 2.9 million, 2.3 million, 1.8 million and 1.7 million respectively. Interestingly, around 60% of Q4 traffic is forecast to be direct, compared to 50% in Q3 and 55% for the full year.

Dubai’s inflation rate in October dipped 0.1% to 2.4%, mainly attributable to the fall in global oil prices so that transport prices fell 10 6% on the back of an 8.0% fall a month earlier; this downward trend is expected to continue in the short-term, with  price rises having eased to a fourteen-month low last month, as YTD, annual inflation averaged 3.3%. Other components in the “inflation basket” have seen marked slowdowns in 2024 such as household durables/maintenance – up 0.5% on the year/0.5% YTD/ compared to 8.3% in October 2023 – and food/beverages – 1.8%, 2.6% and 4.6%. The main driver behind Dubai’s inflation continues to be housing, with prices up 0.7% on the month and 7.2% on the year – marginally higher than the 7.0% registered in September. In October, capital values for apartments and villas were on average 19.8% and 20.24% higher on the year, with rental prices across villas and apartments 17.3% higher on the year.

Dubai Investments’ 9-month profits fell 16.3% to US$ 174 million but signs of improvement were noted in Q3 returns indicating a 12.7% rise to US$ 64 million; revenue in the nine-month period dipped 2.3% to US$ 796 million. The industrial zone operator noted that its two current investments were performing well – the Ras Al Khaimah resort project is progressing well, along with the latest investor in its flagship Dubai Investments Park habeing  Abu Dhabi’s Aldar recently announcing its first logistics real estate investment in Dubai. It has also started construction to develop an economic zone in Angola, and the ‘geographical expansion efforts are also gaining momentum’. Construction has started on DIP Angola.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 18 November, three hundred and thirty-four points (7.6%) higher the previous six weeks, shed 16 points (0.3%), to close the trading week on 4,726 points by Friday 22 November 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.12 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 2.56 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.26 US$ 1.79 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.67, US$ 5.31, US$ 1.78 and US$ 0.38. On 22 November, trading was at one hundred and thirty-one million shares, with a value of US$ 109 million, compared to three hundred and fifty-one million shares, with a value of US$ 151 million, on 15 November.  

By Friday, 22 November 2024, Brent, US$ 1.29 lower (0.7%) the previous week, gained US$ 3.16 (4.4%) to close on US$ 75.17. Gold, US$ 155 (2.3%) lower the previous three weeks, gained US$ 150 (5.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,718 on 22 November 2024. 

A case being held in the Court of Session in Edinburgh will decide the outcome of the previous government’s approval of both the Rosebank, (in the Atlantic), and the North Sea’s Jackdaw fields, (with Shell saying the field would be able to provide gas to 1.4 million UK homes),  and the latter, a year later, which it is estimated  to contain three hundred million to five hundred million barrels of oil). Even before the case started, the two parties did agree on one thing – both were approved unlawfully! Lord Ericht, who is presiding over this judicial review of the UK government’s decisions to approve the fields, will have to decide what, if anything, should be done about it. One of the legal requirements to approve such proposals includes that the climate impact of emissions, caused by the process of extracting oil and gas, did not assess the impact of the greenhouse gases which would be released, known as downstream emissions. Despite this, stakeholders went ahead with pre-production spending and, during this case, the Rosebank backer, Equinor indicated that it would be investing US$ 2.78 billion, and provide employment for 4k people, with Shell investing US$ 1.39 billion and employing “at least 1k” people between 2023 and 2025.

However, a July UK Supreme Court decision put a spanner in the works; seen as a victory for climate campaigners, it ruled that, in a case that involved drilling oil wells near London’s Gatwick Airport, an environmental impact assessment must include downstream emissions. Notwithstanding this, the energy companies argued that they had provided all the environmental information required at the time of their applications and that they were told by the industry regulator not to assess downstream emissions; and they should not be “punished” for a Supreme Court decision which they say they could not have foreseen. The campaign groups argued that this Supreme Court decision could not have been predicted with one lawyer suggesting the oil companies had simply lost a bet. Both groups now want the judge to pause work on Rosebank and Jackdaw while the fields’ downstream emissions are assessed, so that a new decision could be made based on a fuller understanding of their contribution to climate change.

It is reported that SpaceX is looking to sell insider shares that could value the company at US$ 255 billion, 21.4% higher than its previous US$ 210 billion valuation; this makes Musk’s creation, the most valuable private company in the US, which could pave the way for employees, and some early shareholders, to make a healthy return on their investment. It is interesting to note that Musk’s ties with the Trump administration will lift the space company’s net worth, bearing in mind that Tesla’s shares have risen by more than 26%, whilst adding US$ 200 billion to its market cap, since the election. There are rumours that SpaceX is preparing to launch a tender offer next month that will sell existing shares in the business at about US$ 135 each.

Starting next month, embattled Boeing intends to cut almost 2.2k jobs, (about 3.3% of its workforce in Washington State), and has already sent out its first redundancy notifications this week. US legislation dictates that companies have to submit a “WARN” notice (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) to local authorities sixty days before any layoffs. Last month, it announced culling 10% of its 170k global workforce. A company spokesperson confirmed they “are adjusting our workforce levels to align with our financial reality and a more focused set of priorities.”

Spanish authorities have fined five budget airlines – Ryanair, EasyJet, Vueling, Norwegian  and Volotea – a total of US$ 187 million for “abusive practices”, including charging for hand luggage; the first two named bore the brunt of the penalty with fines of US$ 113 million and US$ 30 million respectively. Spain’s Consumer Rights Ministry confirmed plans to ban practices such as charging extra for carry-on hand luggage and reserving seats for children.

Google is bound to go to court to try and stop the US Department of Justice, joined by a group of US states, introducing a series of remedies to stop its internet search monopoly in online search, by selling off its Chrome web browser. In addition, it was also recommended that Google should no longer enter into contracts with companies – including Apple and Samsung – that make its search engine the default on many smartphones and browsers. An anti-competition ruling in August found the firm was illegally crushing its competition in online search, as the DoJ argued the changes will help to open up a monopolised market. Unsurprisingly, it argued that “the DOJ’s wildly overbroad proposal goes miles beyond the Court’s decision.” Currently, it is estimated that its search engine accounts for about 90% of all online searches globally.

Although its Q3 figures indicated that demand for its top generative AI chips would continue to outrun supply, Nvidia has had a rocky time in recent months that has seen declines in its share price. This, despite Q3 revenue coming in at US$ 35.0 billion – well above the market’s US$ 33.0 billion expectation – and its shares a massive 190% higher YTD, equating to a ninefold increase over the past two years. It still retains its position as the most valuable listed firm. However, there are concerns worrying the investment world that there are delays to its next generation Blackwell chips, possible bottlenecks for its chip supply, fears that tech stocks are over-valued, increased competition and a possible slowdown in the global economy.

Ford has announced plans to cut 4k jobs across Europe – including 800 in the UK, and 2.9k in Germany – as the car maker, along with the industry in general, has increasing concerns in relation to weakening EV sales which, if they do not improve, will see many carmakers fined for missing government targets. Ford hopes that this cost-saving measure will bolster its competitiveness in Europe. The US company confirmed that its UK power unit plants at Dagenham and Halewood would not be affected, and that most of the retrenchments will impact administrative and support functions and product development. Ford said it was seeking a greater partnership with governments and others over the difficulties being encountered in the transformation away from petrol/diesel vehicles to EVS and hybrids. Firms face fines if electric cars fail to make up a percentage of their overall sales – a figure that stands at 22% for 2024; this percentage target rises year by year to 2030 when only some hybrid variants will get around the Labour government’s ban on diesel and petrol-powered models. The carmakers face a fine of US$ 18.8k for each non-zero-emission vehicle sold that exceeds the annual percentage target and it is expected that this year’s target will be missed by some 3.5%. The UK car industry lobby group, the SMMT, has highlighted the fact that there will be a US$ 2.51 billion investment in price drops this year.

Former Wall Street investor, Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang, has been found guilty of lying to major investment banks, (as he secretly amassed large bets on several companies), has been sentenced to eighteen years in prison in a massive fraud case that cost banks billions of dollars. The case is linked to the failure of his investment fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021, when it was unable to repay its lenders, it prompted a mass sell-off of stocks and the fund quickly collapsed in less than a week, making it one of the largest hedge fund collapses since the 2008 GFC. Hwang’s lawyers had called for him not to be punished saying his wealth, which at one point was valued at an estimated US$ 30 billion had fallen to an estimated US$ 55 million. Some hope!

In a bid to try and change the Barcelona administration’s decision to shut all short-term rentals, by 2028, Airbnb has urged Barcelona’s mayor to rethink a widening crackdown on short-term rentals, arguing that it only benefits the hotel sector while failing to address overtourism and a housing crisis. The June decision, made by Mayor Jaume Collboni on the basis that that it could contain soaring rents for residents, is being challenged in courts. Airbnb argued that measures taken, in 2014, to impose strict limits on new tourist accommodation licences in the city centre have proved to be effective, and that ten years later, short-term rentals numbers have fallen, and that challenges related to housing and over-tourism are worse than ever. Over the ten-year period, long-term rents have jumped by more than 70% and hotel room prices by 70%, whilst the number of short-term rental homes halved to 8.84k in the four years from 2020. Although there has been a sharp increase in demand, estimates show that, over the past ten years, Spain has built fewer houses since 1970, whilst official data showing that vacant homes outnumbered short-term rentals eight to one in Barcelona.

Criminal fraud charges have been filed against Indian billionaire, Gautam Adani, in the US, claiming that he had overseen a US$ 250 million bribery scheme and concealing it to raise money in the US. It is alleged that the Adani Group had agreed to the payments to Indian officials to win contracts for his renewable energy company, expected to yield more than US$ 2.0 billion in profits over twenty years. It is alleged that their enquiry has been obstructed and that executives had raised US$ 3.0 billion in loans and bonds, including from US firms, on the back of false and misleading statements. Last week, on social media, Mr Adani congratulated Donald Trump on his election win and pledged to invest US$ 10.0 billion in the US. Shares of Adani Group firms fell more than 10% in yesterday’s morning trade – losing around US$ 30 billion in market cap.

There was no surprise to see that the current head of the SEC will leave his post before he could be fired by Donald Trump on 20 January 2025. The agency’s thirty-third chairman posted that “I thank President Biden for entrusting me with this incredible responsibility. The SEC has met our mission and enforced the law without fear or favour.” The president-elect has long made his feelings known on the departee, especially after he had taken controversial legal action against crypto firms and had already revealed plans to sack Mr Gensler on “day one” of his new administration.

Bitcoin nearly touched the US$ 99k mark during the week, closing the week at US$ 98.7k, driven by expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump will introduce pro-cryptocurrency measures. Since his success in the presidential election, at the beginning of the month, it has seen its value skyrocket by more than 40% after the new incumbent vowed to make the US the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world”. There is no doubt that Bitcoin is here to stay and will play a key role in changing regulations and the role of traditional banking.

In a blind tasting, organised by Which?, prestigious Moet & Chandon Champaign (GBP 44) was beaten by  a Tesco Finest Premier Cru Brut Champagne (GBP 25), after a panel of four independent wine experts blind-tasted a selection of non-vintage champagnes. Natalie Hitchins, Which? home products and services editor noted that “our taste tests show that you don’t have to spend over the odds for a supermarket champagne or sparkling wine that delivers on quality and value for money, making it the perfect Christmas tipple.”

In a rare case of corporate cheating in Singapore, 82-year-old Lim Oon Kuin, the founder of collapsed oil trading firm Hin Leong Trading Pte Ltd, was sentenced to nearly eighteen years in jail for defrauding HSBC out of millions of dollars in one of the country’s most serious cases of fraud. OK Lim’s firm was among Asia’s biggest oil trading companies before its sudden and dramatic collapse in 2020. There is no doubt that this case has dented the island state’s reputation, as a leading Asian oil trading hub, but has undermined stakeholders’ confidence in Singapore’s oil trading industry. The businessman faced a total of one hundred and thirty criminal charges involving hundreds of millions of dollars but was only tried on three, including two of cheating HSBC by tricking the bank disbursing nearly US$ 112 million by telling the bank that his firm had entered into oil sales contracts with two companies. In 2020, Lim revealed the oil trader had “in truth… not been making profits in the last few years” – despite having officially reported a healthy balance sheet in 2019 and admitted that his firm had hidden US$ 800 million in losses over the years, while it also owed almost US$ 4 billion to banks.

On his way to the G20 meeting in Rio, President Xi Jinping stopped over in Peru for two reasons – the first to attend the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum and the other to attend the inauguration of the US$ 3.5 billion Chancay port on the Peruvian coast, led by China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping. Latin America seems to be a region to have been overlooked by the US since the 1970s. The US’s increased interest in Latin America was as a result of the Cuban Revolution, which was perceived as a threat so that the US worked to stop the spread of what it called “Communist subversives” leading to them to support right-wing governments. By the end of the 1970s, much of South America was ruled by military dictatorships, called juntas.

China has readily stepped in to fill the vacuum and this new China-backed megaport, which will be able to handle larger ships, could well be the hub of a whole new trade route that would bypass North America entirely; shipping time to Shanghai would also be reduced by twelve days to twenty-five. China’s official Communist Party newspaper, the People’s Daily, called it “a vindication of China-Peru win-win co-operation”. Once Chancay is fully up and running, goods from Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and even Brazil are expected to pass through it on their way to Shanghai and other Asian ports. There will be robust two-way trade, more so because Chile and Brazil have scrapped tax exemptions for individual customers on low-value foreign purchases of cheap Chinese goods bought online.

It is interesting to note SMEs account for some 99% of all German companies and provide around 59% of all the country’s jobs. Now what was once seen as the powerhouse of European industry has fallen on hard times and is in a deep crisis – some of their own making but others from external drivers, such as steep energy price rises, on the back of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, soaring general inflation, and increased competition from China. Five bigger problems appear to be that fact that the global economy is shifting rapidly, (and the government being too slow to realise it), Germany’s aging infrastructure and crumbling, its bureaucracy is too pedestrian to change, inconsistent government decision-making / political flip-flopping from Berlin and high labour costs.  Germany has for so (and probably too) long been the home of European cars but now it has had to meet head-on the challenge from Chinese-made vehicles. With Chinese production lines growing by the year, not only is it able to service its local market, (which in turn reduces the number of imports), it has seen its EV exports surge 1,150% over the past four years; if all motor vehicles were taken into the equation, Chinese vehicle exports came in 600% higher – over the same period German vehicle exports were up  60%. Consequently, Volkswagen, Germany’s largest private-sector employer, is planning plant closures for the first time in its eighty-seven-year history, which would inevitably see thousands of retrenchments.  Last month, the country’s three biggest carmakers posted worrying bulletins – Volkswagen registering a 64% slump in Q3 profits, Mercedes Benz a 54% fall, and BMW issuing a profits warning. Whether the present administration has the capacity and foresight to replicate another economic miracle – on the scale seen post war Germany – remains to be seen.

Another casualty of the Chinese EV influx – with Germany again bearing its brunt – is Bosch who has announced that it will be cutting 5.5k jobs, largely down to slow EV sales and competition from Chinese imports. Furthermore, demand has weakened for the driver assistance and automated driving solutions made by the German manufacturer. The company said a slower-than-expected transition to electric, software-controlled vehicles was partly behind the cuts, which are being made in the car parts division. The world’s biggest car parts supplier has already committed to not making layoffs in Germany until 2027 for many employees, with the Gerlingen site near Stuttgart then set to lose some 3.5k jobs.

It is reported that Russia’s Gazprom will stop delivering its natural gas to Austria’s OMV, with immediate effect; this move had been expected and the country has set already up new agreements with Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. The Austrian Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, noted the country had a secure supply of alternative fuel and that “no one will freeze”, and that “our gas storage facilities are full, and we have sufficient capacity to obtain gas from other regions”. Earlier, OMV had been awarded US$ 242 million by the International Chamber of Commerce, in a contractual dispute with Gazprom.

Japan’s economy grew an annualised real 0.9% in Q3, (compared to 0.7% in the Q2), driven by solid consumer spending on the back of a one-off income tax cut and higher summer bonuses. Accounting for more than 50% of the economy, private consumption rose 0.9% – the second consecutive quarterly increase.

Education is Australia’s fourth biggest export, trailing only mining products, with the University of Sydney, an example of how important foreign students are to the country’s economy. Like other educational institutions, foreign students pay nearly twice as much as their Australian peers and account for over 40% of the institution’s revenue, which helps subsidise research, scholarships, and domestic study fees. Last semester, there were 793.3k international students and this has presented Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a major problem – he needs to cut record levels of migration, partly to ease both the country’s troublesome housing and cost-of-living crises. He has proposed a cap of new foreign enrolments at 270k for 2025, which is a return to pre-pandemic levels, and this reduction is required to make the US$ 32.0 billion education industry more sustainable. He is also suggesting that there will be tougher English language requirements on student visa applicants, and greater scrutiny on those seeking further study. Furthermore, non-refundable visa application fees have also been doubled.

Education Minister Jason Clare says each higher education institution will be given an individual limit, with the biggest cuts to be borne by vocational education and training providers. Of the universities affected, those in capital cities will see the largest reductions. The government says the policy will redirect students to regional towns and universities that need them, instead of overcrowded big cities. Matthew Brown, deputy chief executive of the Group of Eight (Go8), a body which represents Australia’s top ranked universities, notes that “it sends out the signal that Australia is not a welcoming place,” and that the changes could ravage the economy, cause job losses and damage Australia’s reputation. The Go8 has called the proposed laws “draconian”, while others accused the government of “wilfully weakening” the economy and of using international students as “cannon fodder in a poll-driven battle over migration”. It is suggested that the Australian prime minister should look at the circumstances surrounding Canada’s decision to introduce a similar cap earlier. Since then, industry bodies have confirmed that enrolments have fallen well below that, because nervous students would rather apply to study somewhere with more certainty.

Noting that the EU economy is finally returning to modest growth, the European Commission’s Autumn Forecast is expecting 2024 growth figures coming in at 0.9% and 0.8% for the EU and the euro area; over the next two years, the increases will be 1.5%/1.8% and 1.8%/1.6% in 2026. The EU inflation levels have seen the figure decline over the four years from 2023 – 6.4%, 2.6%, 2.4% and 2.0%. Employment growth and recovery – in real wages – continued to support disposable incomes, but household consumption was restrained, whilst households were seen to save an increasing share of their income. H1 2024 witnessed a deep and broad-based contraction across most Member States.

In a bid to raise a further US$ 657 million, the UK government introduced amendments to inheritance tax that will see death duties payable by some farmers on agricultural and business property. Farmers and campaigners say they threaten the future of thousands of multi-generational family farms. This tax, levied at the 40% rate, post the US$ 411k threshold, with a further US$ 221k of relief given if a home is left to children or grandchildren. Currently around 4% of estates are liable for IHT. For the past forty years, farmers and agricultural land and business owners have been exempt from IHT, thanks to a series of tax “reliefs” that can be applied to estates. From 2026 those 100% reliefs will end, replaced by limited relief for farmers on more generous terms than general IHT.  Estates will receive relief of US$ 1.26 million, with up to US$ 632k of additional relief, as with non-farming estates. If a farm is jointly owned by a couple in a marriage or civil partnership, the relief doubles from US$ 1.90 million to US$ 3.80 million. Any tax owed beyond the level of relief will be charged at 20%, half the standard 40%. If farms are gifted to family members at least seven years before death no IHT is payable.

There is no doubt that this an emotive issue but some “non-farming” sectors will lose out including those who have used generous reliefs to make agriculture an attractive investment for seeking to shelter wealth from the taxman.  Then there are the private and institutional investors, (so-called “lifestyle” farmers) funding purchases from previous careers, that now dominate agricultural land purchases. Land Agents, Strutt & Parker, show that in 2023, just 47% were bought by traditional farmers and in the nine months of 2024, the figure is down to 31%, compared to 35% of purchases made by private investors. Meanwhile Resolution Foundation figures indicate that the most valuable estates also receive the lion’s share of tax relief, with 6% of estates worth more than US$ 3.16 million claiming 35% of Agricultural Property Relief  and 4% of the most valuable accounted for 53% of Business Property Relief, in 2020. The Chancellor expects that about 25% of farms will be impacted by the changes, based on the annual tally of claims for APR and BPR made in the event of a farm owners’ death.

Many other sectors were not enthused by Rachel Reeves’ late October budget including the seventy-nine signatories to the British Retail Consortium’s response warning of dire consequences for the economy and jobs in the sector. It estimates that the higher costs, from measures such as higher employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage will see costs surge by US$ 8.85 billion in 2025. These costs will have to be covered and will result in rising prices, lower margins, weaker investment and employment redundancies. BRC also noted that “retail is already one of the highest taxed business sectors, along with hospitality, paying 55% of profits in business taxes”.

It is going to be a dire few years following thirteen austerity years of mostly inept governance by various Tory administrations. Even after only four months of rule, Kier Starmer, along with his Chancellor and other cohorts, have managed to unnecessarily alienate a growing number of the electorate that voted Labour to a landslide victory. In what should be an era of recovery, the population has been told that tough times are ahead again. As at April 2024, UK median weekly pay for full-time employees in the UK was US$ 912 (GBP 728), and after adjusting for inflation (to obtain figures “in real terms”), this is 2% lower than in 2010. The government has decided to Tax, Tax, Tax rather than Spend! Spend! Spend!