Bumpy Ride!                                                                        03 January 2025

The four hundred and twenty-five metre tall Marina 101 project, (featuring one hundred and one floors floors), launched by Sheffield Real Estate, had been progressing well, especially in the boom years prior to the 2008 GFC. Since then, it has been beset by problems, including multiple project delays, cost issues, and even an auction (for the thirty-three floors of the hotel part of the construction, originally named as a Hard Rock Hotel). When the project was eventually 97% completed, the developer had run up a sizeable debt by which time, the banks, (the lead one being the Bank of Baroda), had become involved to try and recoup some of their project exposure. Now at the beginning of 2025, the wait is almost over, with some expecting the Real Estate Regulatory Agency to soon issue the final paperwork, including a building completion certificate, to finally open the tower for its investors. One outstanding point seems to be the status of the hotel and whether it will need further enhancements. However, Bayut continues to show apartment listings, including a one-bedroom at US$ 409k and a two-bedroom for US$ 736k.

Ajman-based GJ Properties Investments LLC posted a recent daily sales figure of US$ 150 million at its recent Ajman Sales Event; these included eight hundred and thirty-seven units sold across three new developments – Al Ameera Village, Nuaimia Two Tower and Ajman Creek Towers, with seven hundred and twenty-four units, sixty-three and fifty apartments respectively. On the back of its Ajman success, it has recently launched Biltmore Residences Sufouh in Dubai, located on Sheikh Zayed Road The luxury development, comprising a range of one- and two-bedroom apartments, along with a luxurious penthouse, is 62% completed and slated for a Q1 2026 handover.

A recent Cushman and Wakefield Core report indicated that, in Q3, Dubai property rents increased by 18% on the year – its fifteenth consecutive quarter of hikes; some of the highest premiums on new leases were seen in beachfront communities such as Palm Jumeirah and Bluewaters Island, attributable to their luxury lifestyle offerings and iconic locations. Other factors such as the requirement for larger spaces, central locations, gated communities and premium amenities have seen price hikes in locations such as Emirates Living, Dubai Hills Estate, and District One. The fact that such areas now have limited supply available – and high demand – will ensure that rents will continue to be well above the average. It is a fact of Dubai property life that most new supply will be found on the emirate’s outskirts and that those established communities, nearer the coast, will continue to charge higher premiums.

Another year, another record for Dubai realty, with 2024 posting an all-time peak of 180.9k transactions, (up 35.9%), worth US$ 112.02 billion, 27.0% higher on the year. The primary market registered a 30.0% surge to US$ 91.04 billion, with the transaction volume surging by 51% to 119.8k – sure indicators that robust demand continues for new developments and off-plan properties; the average price per sq ft, came in 10% higher at US$ 436. Exciting new project launches, along with favourable payment plans, were two main drivers behind the impressive 2024 returns; foreign investors were also attracted by residency incentives and visa reforms. There was a 21% hike in the secondary market, with a 21% increase in re-sales to US$ 51.25 billion, as  transaction volumes rose by 14%  to 61.1k; the average price per sq ft increased by an annual 12% to US$ 354. These returns showed that buyers were keen to move to established villas for immediate occupancy and investors in the market for high rental returns.

There were record apartment and villa sales during the  period – with the former posting a 42% climb in volume, with 141.2k transactions, valued at US$ 71.00 billion; villa sales were 21.1% higher, relating to 30.9k units selling for US$ 44.71 billion. Commercial sales posted much smaller increases, with transaction up 10.1% to 4.3k units, valued at US$ 2.64 billion; plot sales rose by 2.6% to 4.4k, worth US$ 2.64 billion.

Al Barsha South 4 was the top performing location registering 12.9k first sales whilst Business Bay was top when it came to sales value, with 6.9k transactions, worth US$ 5.75 billion. The popularity of areas such as Madinat Al Mataar and Wadi Al Safa 5 reflects the increased demand for community living in the outer suburbs. Other neighbourhoods that fall in the same category, of affordable properties, include the likes of Dubai South, Al Furjan and Jumeirah Village Circle all of which will continue to be in high demand

The driving factors behind the three-year surge in Dubai property are manifold, including its position of being an important global travel hub, its world-class infrastructure, progressive government-backed initiatives, favourable tax policies, economic stability, public safety, excellent amenities, attractive rental yields, investor protection measures, ease of doing business, thriving real estate sector etc etc. Even as we enter 2025, the impact of Expo2020, although dwindling, is still present and a driver in the record-breaking property sales. It is not only residential property that will offer impressive returns in 2025 – many investors forget there are other potential sectors, such as industrial, commercial, office, retail and short-term lets

Dubai Land Department has announced it will launch a new ‘Smart Rental Index’ this month, with its main aim to enhance transparency in the real estate market by providing accurate and current data. It will also further develop the booming realty sector by fostering trust and confidence among all stakeholders including landlords, tenants, and investors. It is hoped that the initiative will place Dubai as a global model for leveraging technology to serve the real estate sector and align with the Dubai Digital Strategy, the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, and the emirate’s future vision for achieving sustainability and excellence.

Although the last Real Estate Regulatory Authority’s Rental Index, in March, saw the gap between new leases and renewal rates narrow, Dubai tenants are still paying up to 30% more for new leases, compared to renewals. This trend of increasing tenant renewals will continue into 2025. A notable trend in Q3 was the continued increase in tenant renewals, which rose by 16.0%, whilst new leases are still trading at an average premium of 14% over renewals, with still high demand for new homes.

Last Saturday, the one hundred and seventeenth open auction, for exclusive vehicle number plates in Dubai, took place resulting in revenues of US$ 22.3 million – the highest ever amount achieved. The auction covered ninety premium numbers, featuring two, three, four, and five digits, spanning the codes AA, BB, K, O, T, U, V, W, X, Y, and Z. The Roads and Transport Authority held the event which saw plate BB55 reach US$ 1.72 million, with other high returns for AA21, BB100 and BB111 of US$ 1.68 million, US$ 1.36 million and US$ 1.15 million.

With exceptional sales in the last two months of 2024, Dubai Duty Free completed the year with record sales of US$ 2.16 billion; last month set an all-time monthly record with sales of US$ 225 million, driven by its forty-first anniversary celebrations on 20 December when it offered a 25% discount on a wide range of goods.  It is estimated that last year, there were 20.7 million sales transactions, with 55,137 million units of merchandise sold to 13.7 million customers. Online sales topped US$ 54 million, equating to 2.5% of total sales, whilst departure sales at US$ 1.951 billion accounted for 90.3% turnover, (up 0.84% on the year); arrival sales were 12.21% lower at US$ 147 million, accounting for 6.8% of total turnover.

Latest figures by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre show that the country’s economy grew 3.6% in H1, with the GDP reaching US$ 239.67 billion. Over the period, the non-oil sector, growing by 4.4%, led by the transportation, construction and ICT sectors, contributed over 75% of the UAE’s economy. In H1, the value of nominal GDP (at current prices) amounted to about US$ 267.30 billion, growing at 5.6%, while the value of non-oil GDP, (at current prices), was 6.8% higher during the same period to about US$ 204.09 billion. In October, the IMF amended the country’s 2024 growth forecast from its earlier April prediction of 4.2% to 5.1%, driven by strong growth in the non-oil sectors. Meanwhile, the International Institute of Finance also projected that the UAE GDP growth will lead the region in 2024 and 2025. The Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre has estimated that, in H1, transportation/storage, financial/insurance, construction/building, information/communications and hotel/restaurants activities grew by 8.4%, 7.6%, 7.3%, 5.3% and 5.1% respectively. Growth in the latter sector was helped by hotel revenues, increasing by 7.0% to US$ 6.70 billion, as guest numbers rose by 10.5% to 15.3 million.

More than eight years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. Last Wednesday, retail prices fixed at December’s prices – the first time that there were no monthly adjustments. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for January is as follows:

Super 98      US$ 0.711 from US$ 0.711     in Jan (flat)       down 7.4% YTD US$ 0.768     

Special 95   US$ 0.681 from US$ 0.681      in Jan (flat)       down 7.7% YTD  US$ 0.738         

E-plus 91     US$ 0.662 from US$ 0.662      in Jan (flat)      down 7.9% YTD   US$ 0.719

Diesel           US$ 0.730 from US$ 0.730      in Jan (flat)       down 10.6% YTD US$ 0.817

2024 was a boom year for the two local bourses, with the Dubai Financial Market surging, driven by a robust economy, foreign investments, and several IPOs; the result was the DFM’s market cap and trading volumes surged. By the end of the year, the combined market cap of the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets topped US$ 1.06 trillion, 7.0% higher on the year, with the DFM’s market cap, 31.9% higher at US$ 247.11 billion; its trading value came in on US$ 29.07 billion and total volume of shares at 51.85 billion.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 30 December, three hundred points (6.2%) higher the previous fortnight, gained eight points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,138 points by Friday 03 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.02 lower the previous week, shed US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 3.45 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.76, US$ 5.83 US$ 1.92 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.78, US$ 5.61, US$ 1.91 and US$ 0.41. On 03 January, trading was at two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-seven million dollars, compared to two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ ninety-one million, on 27 December.  

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 December at 5,159 was 1,096 points (27.0%) higher in 2024. Emaar started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and has gained US$ 1.34, to close YTD at US$ 3.50. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the year on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed YTD at US$ 0.77, US$ 5.84, US$ 1.93 and US$ 0.41.

By Friday, 03 January 2025, Brent, US$ 1.23 higher (1.7%) the previous week, gained US$ 2.42 (3.3%) to close on US$ 76.59. Gold, US$ 27 (1.0%) higher the previous week, shed  US$ 1 (0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,653 on 03 January 2025.

Brent started the year on US$ 77.23 and shed US$ 2.42 (3.1%), to close 31 December 2024 on US$ 74.81. Meanwhile, the yellow metal opened 2024 trading at US$ 2,074 and gained US$ 550 (26.5%) to close the year on US$ 2,624.

After more than eighteen months of legal wrangling, Do Kwon will be extradited from Montenegro to the US to face fraud charges over the collapse of two digital tokens – TerraUSD and Luna. The South Korean cryptocurrency entrepreneur, and his company Terraform Labs, were involved in “orchestrating a multi-billion-dollar crypto asset securities fraud”, which sunk some US$ 40 billion from investors and rocked global crypto markets. It was alleged that Kwon repeatedly claimed that the tokens would increase in value, and misled investors about the stability of TerraUSD, which, despite billions in investment, went broke in May 2022, leading to panic and sell-offs in other major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin.

The Department of Justice announced that a US government fund created to help compensate victims of the late fraudster Bernard Madoff has made its final payment of US$ 131 million which will bring the grand total of US$ 4.30 billion being returned to 40.9k claimants. The MFV estimates it will have recovered nearly 94% of the victims’ proven losses when it completes its mission in 2025. The Wall Street financier, who died in prison in 2021, had been sentenced to a one-hundred-and-fifty-year sentence for a Ponzi scheme which graduated to being one of the biggest frauds ever seen. His Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities firm was set up in 1960 and became one of Wall Street’s largest market-makers over the ensuing forty-eight years, during which time he also served as chairman of the Nasdaq stock trading platform. Even though the firm was investigated eight times by the SEC, because of its exceptional returns, it only collapsed because of the impact of the 2008 GFC.

The future of TikTok, with over one hundred and seventy million US users, may be settled next month, with the court set to hear arguments in the case on 10 January. Last April, the US Congress voted to ban it, unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance sold the app to an American company by 19 January – one day before Donald Trump’s inauguration. In 2020, he had tried to block the app in the United States, and force its sale to a US company, but appears to have done a U-turn, with his lawyer commenting “President Trump takes no position on the underlying merits of this dispute. Instead, he respectfully requests that the Court consider staying the Act’s deadline for divestment of 19 January 2025, while it considers the merits of this case, thus permitting President Trump’s incoming administration the opportunity to pursue a political resolution of the questions at issue in the case.” Earlier in the month, when meeting TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, he noted that he had a “warm spot” for the app and that he favoured allowing TikTok to keep operating in the United States for at least a little while.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that, in the eleven months to 30 November, the combined profit of major industrial enterprises declined by an annual 4.7%, according to People’s Daily Online. Following three years of decline, the blue-chip CSI 300 Index, tracking the biggest companies listed in the cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 15.9%, despite the ongoing property crisis and continuing weak consumer confidence. Meanwhile, both the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index closed the year gaining 13.9% and 17.9%, (after two years and four years of declines). Banking stocks led the market gains, pushing 36% higher, with the four largest state banks attaining multi-year highs, along with the chip sector surging 54%. However, the year ended with indicators that China’s factory activity expansion slowed in December amid rising trade risks.

Last month, Pakistan saw consumer inflation rate dip 0.8%, on the month to its lowest point, at 4.1%, in nearly seven years – some good news for the country, as it tries to make some sort of economic recovery, aided by a September US$ 7 million IMF facility. The Finance Ministry posted that it expects annual 2024 inflation rate to hold in the range of 4% – 5%. The inflation level has markedly improved from the multi-decade high of 40% posted twenty months ago in May 2023; this has been attributed to a more stable currency, lower global commodity prices and improved supply chain.  Consumer prices nudged 0.1% on the month. Meanwhile the State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 bp to 13% last month, the fifth straight reduction since June, and down from the 22% mark at the beginning of 2024.

For the seventh consecutive month, in December, Türkiye’s annual inflation rate dipped to 44.38% – 2.69% lower on the month. The highest inflation rate was education – at 91.64% – and at the other end of the scale was transportation at 25.88%. The monthly consumer price index rose at the slowest pace since May 2023 at 1.03% in December, compared to 2.24% a month earlier. Over the twelve months, it fell by 20%.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that his country would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood” and had given the EU a year to prepare; now, to his word, Russian gas supplies to EU states via Ukraine have ended, after a five-year deal between Ukraine’s gas transit operator Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom expired. Russian gas can still transit to Hungary, as well as Turkiye and Serbia, through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. It is obvious that Russia has lost an important market, (estimated at a current level of US$ 5.2 billion), but its president, Vladimir Putin, says EU countries will suffer most; in 2021, Russian gas was 40% of EU gas imports – today it is less than 10%.

Still showing to be a healthy labour market and pointing to fewer layoffs at the end of the year, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-month low last week. There is no doubt that the market’s resilience is helping to stabilise the US economy. This and other recent data, including consumer spending, point the Federal Reserve considering fewer rate cuts in 2025, with the last 0.25% cut in December, pushing the benchmark overnight rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped 9k to a seasonally adjusted 211k – the lowest level since April. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 52k, to a seasonally adjusted 1.844 million, with the December unemployment rate expected to come in flat at 4.2%.

According to Nationwide, UK house prices rose by 4.7% last year, with it noting that property prices and housing market activity remained “remarkably resilient” despite affordability challenges facing buyers; by the end of 2024, the average UK home was valued at US$ 335k, still below the summer peaks of 2022. The building society found that terraced homes rose fastest during the year and that Northern Ireland saw the fastest price growth, with values also rising faster in northern England than in the south. It also noted that house prices remained high relative to average earnings at the start of 2024, which meant that raising a deposit was  becoming harder for prospective first-time buyers.

A letter – signed by PM Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary – has been sent to more than ten of the UK’s leading watchdogs giving them no more than three weeks to submit a range of pro-growth initiatives to Downing Street – and submit five ideas on the best way to achieve this target. Those, including the leaders of Ofgem, Ofwat, Ofcom, the Environment Agency, healthcare regulators, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Competition and Markets, have been ordered to remove barriers to growth, in a bid to kickstart the UK’s sluggish economy. He also wants every government department and regulator to support growth and identify where regulatory objectives were either conflicting or confused. Maybe it would have been a better idea if he had come up with this scheme before trying to crash an already battered economy in hid first six months in office.

It has taken the UK over eight years to be invited back to a meeting involving EU leaders, following the country leaving the bloc and ridding itself of the likes of egoistic and intransient bureaucrats, such as Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, who seemed to take pleasure in ensuring that the Brexit negotiations were all one-sided. Now PM Keir Starmer has been invited to an informal summit of EU leaders, in February, with the focus on future security and defence co-operation, in the wake of the Ukraine war, (with Russia receiving help from Iran, North Korea and China), along with the start of Trump’s second term as president – and his threat to impose punitive sanctions on the EU.  There is no doubt that the EU was impacted by the UK’s surprise departure in 2016 and the loss of not only a major economy but also its foremost military power. (The UK’s economy also suffered). It seems that with the major EU players, Germany, France and Italy, all troubled by political and economic woes, it is a good time for the bloc to offer the hand of reconciliation on more equitable terms for the benefit of all stakeholders. It will be a question of give and take from both sides in a new environment of goodwill, with Labour espousing an “ambitious reset” of EU-UK relations.

2025 could be a make-or-break year for the UK economy and many of the country’s stakeholders face a turbulent year ahead. Retail will suffer from several negative factors, including an April 2025 1.2% rise in employer’s National Insurance contributions, with the sector impacted by the treble whammy of increased costs. They will be reflected in lower margins, (with the sector bearing some of the increased costs) whilst others will see higher prices, borne by the consumers; price rises will result in lower sales which will be further exacerbated by very subdued consumer confidence and a reduction in their spend. Weak footfall over Q4 could be a worrying sign of things to come in the new year.

MNCs and exporters will suffer the same as retailers but will also be damaged if Donald Trump keeps to his promise of extending tariffs. This, in turn, could turn into a major trade war if countries will respond in kind – a distinct possibility with many economies, including the EU, UK and Japan already intimating that there would be retaliatory measures. (Interestingly, it is unlikely that China would join). If this were to go ahead, the result would inevitably be a damaging trade war that would hit global growth. Two other negative factors would be the weak state of the Chinese economy and the ongoing wars in the ME, Ukraine and other places.

To add to their woes, are the political and economic problems in the EU, more so in the three major nations – Germany, France and Italy – where economic activity will grind to a snail’s pace, especially in Germany until after their snap election next month.

The hospitality sector will face most of the problems listed above but will also, like Retail, be very concerned about the upcoming increase in the national living wage.

The manufacturing sector will continue to struggle. For example, the MV sector continues to face stiff competition from Chinese imports, as well as facing the threat of penalties where electric vehicles are too low a proportion of their overall sales, if unrealistic high targets, set by the government, are not sensibly amended, then they will face major financial problems.

The housing sector could be an outlier in 2025 and one of the few expected to improve its position this year. The Starmer government has set what some may consider unrealistically high targets of 300k new builds every year and this despite a marked deficiency in skilled labour numbers.

There is no doubt that the UK economy is looking down the barrel as itenters Q2 of the century.

The Centre for Retail Research has estimated that almost 170k retail workers have lost their jobs in 2024, after the collapse of major high street chains; this is the worst annual loss of jobs since the Covid era of 2020. This figure is 50k (41.9%) higher on the year, with one of the main drivers being the collapse of major chains such as Ted Baker and Homebase. Further statistics showed that about 33% of this year’s losses, equating to 55.9k, were the result of business collapses, with thirty-eight major retailers going into administration, including Lloyds Pharmacy, The Body Shop, and Carpetright. The balance was because of “rationalisation”, as part of cost-cutting programmes by large retailers or small independents choosing to permanently close their stores. It is estimated that independent retailers, which are generally small businesses with between one and five stores, shed a total of 58.6k jobs last year. The same five factors continued to play their parts in closures and cut-backs – changed customer shopping habits, inflation, rising energy costs, higher rents and ongoing business rates – and 2025 is likely to follow the same pattern, with the two extra burdens being the 1.2% hike in employers’ national insurance contributions to 15%, starting in April – adding a further GBP 2.3 billion cost to the sector – and the reduction, (from 75% to 40%), in discounts for business rates. It is estimated that these will result in independent retailers paying an extra annual US$ 6.3k, with their bills rising some 140%; this will cost the retail sector an extra US$ 863 million. If nothing is changed, and the status quo remains, the sector will have to find an additional US$ 2.89 billion and, at the same time, will see further redundancies exceeding 200k in 2025.

2025 could prove to be a tricky year for the UK property market because of a change in stamp duty and market uncertainty on mortgage rates. Q1 should see a flurry of activity ahead of changes that will see house buyers paying more stamp duty on properties of over US$ 155k, (GBP 125k), half of the current US$ 310k threshold. First-time buyers begin to pay stamp duty on purchases of over US$ 527k (GBP 425k) but this will be reduced to US$ 382k come April. Furthermore, there are still concerns if and when the BoE will actually start cutting rates in 2025, with its governor, Andrew Bailey commenting that “the world is too uncertain” to make accurate predictions of when interest rates would fall, and by how much. However, as house prices still remain stubbornly high relative to average earnings, some prospective first-time buyers have already exited unable to raise the initial deposit. To exacerbate the problem, record rates of rental growth, in recent years, have seen those actually saving for a deposit in a situation that they are taking longer to raise the money needed to obtain a mortgage. There is hope that housing affordability could improve later in the year if mortgage rates were to fall and wages were to rise, (well above the inflation rate). Indeed, Finance has forecast an optimistic 10% rise in mortgage lending for house purchases during 2025, although some analysts have already questioned this prediction as optimistic for lenders. It is estimated that 80% of mortgages are fixed rate – normally either two-year or five-year deals – with the BoE estimating that 4.4 million mortgage holders are expected to see payments rise by 2027.

A Sky News study indicates that the typical UK household will have to bear a further US$ 335, with the increase in costs for energy, water and council tax, outstripping the 2.6% inflation rate. On top of these troubles for the consumer, the economy, which had been the best performing in the G7 this time last year, is flatlining, as it enters the new year, with latest figures from the Office of National Statistics indicating there was zero growth in Q3. Then in April the arrival of the 1.2% hike in employers’ national insurance contributions will inevitably result in loss of jobs and reduced pay.

The following table traces how certain indices have performed over the years. Gold has had two great years jumping 43.39% over that period, including 26.52% in 20234 with more of the same on the way this year. It closed 2024 at US$ 2,624 and it is highly likely that it will top US$ 3k sometime in H1 and a 20% rise could see it trading around the US$ 3,150 mark. Brent has had its troubles, (12.9% lower than its 2022 year-end high of US$ 74.81), that have been well documented; given the global economic environment, it is difficult to see the index moving any higher than US$ 80 in 2025. After two years of double-digit growth, iron ore saw a 23.1% slump in 2024 to close on US$ 103.61. Little upward movement is expected this year. Meanwhile coffee had a stellar year, mainly attributable to the weather and increased consumption numbers. A 70.5% price surge last year, to US$ 320, will not be repeated in 2025 but prices will remain buoyant, driven by on-going supply constraints. For the third year in a row, cotton continued its downward spiral and is 39.3% lower than three years earlier. Silver performed better than expected – up nearly 20% on the year – after a flat three years; 2025 will see the metal with increased market support and there is hope that it will top US$ 30 this year. Copper traded 2.0% higher in 2024 and is expected to move higher at a slightly quicker pace next year. The strength of the US$ came to the forefront in Q4 and saw the greenback showing gains on the year against sterling, the Ozzie dollar, the euro and rouble of 1.73%, 9.24%, 6.24% and 18.18% at US$ 1.251, US$ 0.619, US$ 1.036 and US$ 0.009. It will be interesting to see what impact sanctions will have and whether the dollar weakens to make US imports cheaper this year.  All five bourses are moving in the right direction with the local DFM posting another impressive return of 26.98% after a 20%+ figure a year earlier – it will probably hit double figure gains in 2025 but not as high as recorded last year. The FTSE is slowly – but steadily – losing its influence on the global stage but will continue to tick over this year. The US bourses again were up across the board, with the S&P 500 23.34% higher at 5,882. They will still have momentum going forward but any gains will be well down on 2023 returns. Bitcoin is another story and there is every reason to see it moving upwards again this year.

			%age	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec
		Unit	Rise	2024	2023	2022	2021
Gold		oz	26.52%	2,624	2074	1,830	1,831
Iron Ore		lb	-23.08%	103.61	134.7	121.3	106.7
Oil-Brent		bar	-3.10%	74.81	77.2	85.91	77.78
Coffee		lb	70.48%	320.84	188.2	174	226.75
Cotton		lb	-15.79%	68.38	81.2	83.4	112.65
Silver		oz	19.83%	28.88	24.1	24.18	23.36
Copper		lb	2.05%	3.98	3.9	3.82	4.46
AUD			-9.24%	0.619	0.682	0.681	0.726
GBP			-1.73%	1.251	1.273	1.21.0	1.353
Euro			-6.24%	1.036	1.105	1.073	1.137
Rouble			-18.18%	0.009	0.011	0.014	0.013
FTSE 100			5.69%	8,173	7733	7,452	7,403
CSI300			14.69%	3,935	3431	3,872	4,940
S&P 500			23.34%	5,882	4769	3,840	4,766
DFMI			26.98%	5,159	4,063	3,336	3,196
ASX 200			7.50%	8,159	7590	7,039	7,844
Bitcoin			119.87%	93,533	42539.2	16856	48011

2024 Dubai Forecasts

• in 2024, Dubai’s population grew by 170k, (4.664%) to 3.825 million, accounting for 34.20% of the country’s population of 11,184 million. In 2025, Dubai’s population, with an increase of one hundred and eighty thousand, will top four million, to 4.005 million – up 4.75% on the year
• there will be a marked number of “new” residents moving to Dubai from the northern emirates
• last year, an estimated 43k units were added to the Dubai property portfolio to 873k, with an expected 52k to be added in 2025, to 925k units
• there is no doubt that property prices have skyrocketed since the pandemic and average prices will continue to move higher – in 2025, expect a lower double-digit growth
• prices for off-plan residences, villas, and townhouses expected to rise by another 10-15% – and even higher in the luxury market sector which could be as high as 30%
• by the end of 2024, the UAE government had signed twenty-four Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, with countries and international blocs, covering approximately 2.5 billion people or 30.5% of the global population of 8.197 billion. it will sign at least fifteen new CEPAs in 2025 in a bid to achieve the administration’s aim of targeting US$ 1.09 trillion in total trade value by 2031 and doubling the size of the wider economy by 2030
• having jumped 61.4% in the previous three years to 31 December 2024, including a 2024 growth of 26.98% to 5,159 points, the DFM will maintain its upward momentum into the new year, with a slightly slower – but still double-digit growth
• having delivered the highest level of profit (US$ 4.70 billion), and revenue (US$ 37.40 billion), last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2024, expect Emirates to deliver enhanced figures with revenue rising by more than 10% and profit slightly less
• DXB will record a record number of passengers reaching ninety-one million in 2024, with numbers expected to top ninety-three million in 2025
• Dubai’s debt will remain steady at 34% of GDP, (down from 70% in 2021), helped by several factors including its strong resurgence post-Covid, asset sales of several GREs, increased dividends from associated companies, the introduction of corporation tax and a further surge in tourism. grew 3.6% in H1, with the GDP reaching US$ 239.67 billion. Over the period, the non-oil sector, growing by 4.4%, led by the transportation, construction and ICT sectors, contributed over 75% of the UAE’s economy
• GDP growth in Dubai to be close to 4% on average between 2025 and 2027, after a 3.6% growth in H2 2024. Thus far, the effects of geopolitical tensions have been minimal. Non-oil sector will grow by 5.0% in 2025, with latest figures showing a 4.4% hike in H1 2024, whilst total growth will come in at 5.2%
• further growth in the hospitality sector will see hotel revenues 8% higher, at US$ 7.2 billion, in 2025, with guest numbers increasing 10% 16.8 million
• two more government-related companies listed on the DFM
• one Dubai family IPO to be listed on the DFM

2024 Global Forecasts

• in 2024, the global economy slowed to 3.2%, not helped by geo-political problems. 2025 will see marginally higher economic growth, at 3.3%, as interest rates nudge slowly lower
• G20 headline inflation will ease to 3.3% in 2025, down from the 6.1% level in 2023
• high global debt will continue to hurt the poorer nations with a major famine/pandemic all but inevitable and, as usual, the emerging nations will bear the brunt, with the poor becoming poorer and the rich richer
• although there will be some sort of settlements in both the ME and Ukraine crises this year, geopolitical tensions will not go away but just move from location to location, with West Africa, Taiwan and Yemen places to watch. Wherever they occur, it will damage the health of global economies including the US and China
• expect to see German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French President Emmanuel Macron out of office this year
• there will be minimal growth in the EU with Germany, (and maybe France and Italy) expected to go into recession sometime in 2025
• Australia, India, Brazil and parts of Europe will be hit by a mix of floods and record high temperatures which will impact global economic growth
• oil prices will hover around US$ 80 during another year of volatile trading that will see production two million bpd higher
• despite all the talk circulating around climate control, 2024 global coal demand is projected to have grown by 1.0%, setting a new all-time high of 8 771 MT, with China, India and ASEAN countries consuming 75% of total demand, (compared to 35% at the beginning of the century). With slowing global economic growth, coal demand will only nudge slightly higher in 2025, to a new record high 9,200 MT, but it will not be until at least 2027 that demand will start to fall
• the so-called “Magnificent 7” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla – had another great year, gaining 63% in value last year and 75% in 2023 – another good year expected in 2025 but slightly down compared to 2024. (Their 2024 profits accounted for about 75% of S&P 500 earnings growth)
• from being the fastest growing economy in the G7 during the first half of 2024, the UK stagnated during Q3 2024, as the incoming government ladled on the doom and gloom in a bid to underline what it presented as its dire economic inheritance, hitting business and consumer confidence in the process. With many, including the BoE, expecting the economy to have flatlined, more of the same awaits the UK in 2025

Although we are sheltered somewhat here in Dubai, whatever happens in 2025 remains to be seen but one thing is for sure – we are in for a Bumpy Ride!