March 2025

As real estate prices continue to head north at a rate of knots, new suburban locations are becoming increasingly popular to fill the gap for those struggling to keep on the “affordable property ladder’’. Such areas as Lehbab, Al Aweer, and Al Marmoom, moving further out from the city’s suburbs, are starting to fill the gap where rents for apartments and villas can be had for between US$ 6.3k – US$ 9.5k and US$ 9.5k – US$ 19.9k respectively. Former “affordable communities”, including JVC, Silicon Oasis, Arjan, and Dubailand, seem to have moved up because of their popularity which has led to rents scaling higher and out of some potential tenants’ repayment levels.

Al Mueisim 1, Al Twar 1, Al Qusais Industrial 5 and Al Leyan 1 are to be the locations that will house 17k studio through to 3 B/R units as part of a government strategy to build affordable accommodation for skilled workers. It is hoped that once these affordable properties enter the market, there will be a “more substantial cooling of rental prices” but it will take a tenfold increase for some sort of equilibrium for Dubai’s property sector. Although this market is still seeing an average double-digit growth in rents, post Covid, there are some locations that may have hit their peak where rents have started to slow, as new supply comes online, easing rental pressure.

The ‘penalty’ for moving further ‘out of town’, are longer commutes, traffic and travel time, lack of infrastructure and less  developed amenities, but on the flip side of the coin are more modern living, better design accommodation and  a cheaper property option, knowing that the city will continue to expand ‘inland’, and at the same time increasing the value of these ‘new’ properties.

With no readily available figures for 2024, the estimate of total housing units as at the end of last year is at 860k, being 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k plus the 47k best guesstimate for last year. (In the four-year period, ending December 2023, the average annual new units were 41k). Using an 81:19 ratio for apartments:villas, this will show that there were 697k apartments and 163k villas by the end of 2024. The population at the start of 2023 was at 3.655 million, and with a net addition of 209k (5.85%) during the year, ended at 3.864 million. Assuming 5.3 persons live in a villa and 4.3 in apartments, then 864k live in villas (5.3*163k) and 2.997 million in apartments (4.3*697k); this equates to 3.861 million persons. If the 2025 population were to grow in similar manner, there would be a increase of 229k to 4.090 million. Using the same assumptions, a 50k rise in residential units will cater for 40.5k apartments (174k persons – 40.5* 4.3) and 9.5k villas, (50k persons – 9.5k * 5.3); this equates to 224k persons. On the surface, it seems that demand and supply are in equilibrium. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes etc, then there is a current inventory shortage.

In the history of foreign ownership, Dubai has seen two major property crashes. Over the period, 2002 to 2008, there was an almost quadrupling of Dubai property prices in what was a largely unregulated market that just got out of control. Dubai became one of the world’s fastest-growing cities, with the introduction of a groundbreaking Property Law (Law No. 7 of 2006), which allowed foreign nationals to purchase freehold properties in designated areas. It was open season for developers, with billions of dollars being spent on both plausible mega-projects, (including Jumeirah Garden City, Dubailand, The Lagoons, Palm Jumeirah and The World, with a cumulative cost of over US$ 208 billion), and less plausible ones such as a ski resort in the desert, a residential bubble in the sky and an underwater tennis stadium. Then by the end of 2008, the unimaginable happened and the global credit crunch hit, with Dubai at its initial epicentre. Transaction volumes slumped overnight, with almost 50% of construction projects, valued at US$ 300 billion, being either canned or put on hold.

By the beginning of 2012, Dubai’s economy, after a desperate three years, thankfully returned to some form of normality, and over the ensuing three years, average house prices soared by 21.5% a year until price growth slowed. Over the next six years, the housing market was depressed, with annual price declines in a range of 0.4% to 11.0%, (a cumulative 37.4% inflation adjusted) being posted. There were several factors behind the six years of declining prices including:

• far too much inventory, especially apartments, having been built and flooding the market
• DLD doubling the property registration fees to 4%
• the Covid-19 pandemic scaring the market
• the 2013 Federal Mortgage Cap dampening price rises
• the 2018 introduction of VAT implementation which impacted home sales  after three years of construction

Following the effect that the pandemic had on the housing market, 2021 saw it in recovery mode over the following two years – by 9.3% and 9.5% – and then went into overdrive. The next two years saw 20% plus increases, driven by strong demand, attributable to increased foreign interest, progressive government initiatives and a healthy domestic economy. Dubai’s all-residential property price index rose strongly by 19.46% year-on-year (15.97% inflation-adjusted) in November 2024. This followed annual increases of 20.14% in 2023, 9.53% in 2022, and 9.25% in 2021, and annual declines of 7.12% in 2020, 6.0% in 2019, and 8.56% in 2018.

The above shows that since 2002, there had been a six-year growth spurt until the GFC crash of 2008, with four years of depressed prices, until a three-year recovery restarted in 2012 to be followed by six years of a weak housing market and a four-year bounce back which is still ongoing in 2025. So, over the past twenty-two years, Dubai has witnessed a pattern of six years’ growth, (2002 – 2007), four years’ property depression, (2008 – 2011), three years’ growth, (2012 – 2014), six years’ property recession, (2015 – 2020), and four years of robust growth, (2021 -2024). Just like the global economy, Dubai’s property market is subject to cyclical events and over the past twenty-three years, there have been thirteen years of growth, (over three periods 2002 – 2007, 2012 – 2015 and 2021 – 2024) and ten years of negative growth (2008 – 2011 and 2015 – 2020).

The portents are obvious – the golden days are coming to an end, with the question being not ‘if” but ‘when’. The good news is that this time the market is in a more mature and more controlled environment than it was in 2008, when it experienced more of a crash landing, than a hard landing, with severe collateral damage. The slowdown from 2015 was much more of a softer landing and the economy was impacted but not to the same extent as the 2008 GFC.  A guesstimate is that a slowdown will be noticeable early 2027, with property prices nudging lower that will benefit the economy, with more affordable, rents/prices. It will be controlled so that the market will not be flooded with surplus inventory that had been the case in 2008, and to a lesser extent in 2015.

Emirates-led Dubai Dune Properties, in collaboration with Sotheby’s International Realty, has brokered the sale of a villa, on Jumeirah Bay Island, for a record-breaking US$ 90 million. The agency, founded in 2023, is led by Emirati entrepreneur and former private banker Mohamed Ali, and aims, by the end of the year, to have one hundred team members and be ranked among the top twenty performing brokerages.

Last year, Dubai World Trade Centre welcomed an annual 7.0% increase of 2.65 million event participants, as there was a 26% growth in the number of calendar events, comprising three hundred and seventy-eight Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE), and business and consumer events. The MICE events rose 26.2% to one hundred and thirty-five, with the total number of attendees climbing 30.0% to 2.03 million; of that total, international participation at MICE surged 46.0% to over 942k attendees. Such figures will help to enhance the hopes of Dubai Economic Agenda “D33” to cement Dubai’s position as one of the top three cities for business and tourism globally.

The Global Financial Centre Index rankings, published by Z/Yen in London, sees Dubai emerging as one of the top cities globally for fintech for the first time. A total of 31.3k financial centre assessments were collected from 4.95k financial services professionals who responded to the GFCI online questionnaire. The index rates one hundred and nineteen global financial centres, combining assessments from financial professionals with quantitative data which form instrumental factors. Dubai’s overall ranking advanced to twelfth, in the latest rankings, with it becoming number one (most mentioned) financial city, and is expected to become more significant. The emirate is the only financial city in the region that appears in the top fifteen categories for being globally competitive, coming in at fifth – fintech, sixth – professional services, eighth – investment management, ninth – infrastructure, tenth – business environment, eleventh – reputation (includes laws, regulations and innovation), twelfth – human capital and thirteenth – banking/finance. Dubai was categorised as only one of eight cities in the world to be a global leader with ‘broad and deep’ capabilities across all parts of the finance industry, alongside cities including London, New York and Paris.

Dubai’s Majid Al Futtaim Group’s posted declines in both revenue and profit – by 2.0% to US$ 9.24 billion and 6.0% to US$ 681 million, the latter driven by currency devaluation, upcoming 9% corporate tax and one-off items; if UAE corporate income tax, valuation gains and impairments had been excluded, the profit would have been 18% higher. EBITDA was 1.0% higher at US$ 1.25 billion, with free cash flow 270% higher at US$ 763 million, with net debt US$ 272 million lower. Total assets came to US$ 18.75 billion and net debt-to-equity improved to 41%. A unit breakdown sees:

properties       revenue – US$ 2.37 billion, up 25.0%   EBITDA – up 16% to US$ 1.14 billion

                        phases 1 & 2 of Ghaf Woods sold out within a week

malls                leasing occupancy 97%.   footfall ‘remaining stable from record 2023 growth across its twenty-nine malls’

hotels              the ‘newly optimised’ hotels portfolio continues to perform well

retail                ‘faced a challenging but rewarding year’ for the brick-and-mortar business EBITDA – US$ 104 million

                        currency devaluations             geopolitical tensions

                        expansion of discounter Supeco in Egypt

                        introduction of Hypermax, a new 100% owned and operated grocery brand in Jordan     

                        early progress of its turnaround programme in the UAE

                        “digital business continues to go from strength to strength”

Jafza is to add a further 360k sq ft in phase 2 of its Logistics Park, with a US$ 25 million investment. It will add modern offices, customisable units, temperature-controlled warehouses, loading docks, and enhanced power capacity to support diverse industries. It is hoped that this expansion will help businesses compete globally and simultaneously drive foreign investment into Dubai. Phase 1, featuring Grade-A dry and pharma storage units, temperature-controlled warehouses, and office spaces, was fully leased before completion, with phase 2 bringing the total area of Jafza Logistics Park to over 922.5k sq ft. Jafza currently hosts 10.89k companies, from one hundred and fifty countries, supporting over 160k jobs and contributing US$ 245.5 billion in trade annually.

Since DP World is a global player, with ports and logistics operations in more than seventy countries, handling around 10% of global trade, people should listen to its chairman, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, as he warns US trading partners to take President Trump seriously on tariffs. He was talking to Sky News, as chairman of P&O Ferries’ parent company DP World about the US$ 1 billion investment in the UK last October. He indicated that he felt “discredited” by criticism from a cabinet minister, transport secretary Louise Haigh, who described P&O as a ‘rogue operator`. In 2022, the company had been widely criticised when more than seven hundred seafarers were summarily fired and replaced by largely overseas workers without consultation. Following the minister’s criticism, DP World pulled the planned US$ 1 billion investment and only relented following a personal intervention by Keir Starmer to keep his showpiece investment summit on course. The DP World supremo said the criticism was unexpected given the scale of his planned investment in the UK to make London Gateway the biggest port in the UK, adding “there was a misunderstanding. Someone, unfortunately, said something that was not what we expected. We were going to invest in infrastructure, a huge investment, and then we get the person in charge to basically discredit us. But it’s water under the bridge.”

Drydocks World, a subsidiary of DP World, has been awarded an eight-month contract for the refurbishment and life extension of the FPSO Baobab Ivoirien, by MODEC Management Services Pte Ltd. The eight-month project, on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading, will involve extensive structural enhancements, including 1k tonnes of steel renewal, 250k sq mt of tank coating, and 11.5k mt of new piping. When completed, it will give the vessel a further fifteen-year life period. FPSO Baobab Ivoirien plays a crucial role in West Africa’s offshore production, with a processing capacity of 70k bpd and 75 million cu ft of natural gas. It can also inject 100k bpd of water and store up to two million barrels of crude oil. The vessel, currently operating at the Baobab oil field, 25 km off the coast of Côte d’Ivoire, will relocate to Drydocks World’s Dubai facility for its eight-month refurbishment.

DP World has selected Mota-Engil to lead the development of its Banana Port, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The project’s first phase will feature a 600 mt quay, with annual handling capacity of 450k TEUs, along with thirty hectares of storage area. This will be followed by extending the quay wall by over two kilometres. Not only will this development strengthen the DRC’s position as a key trade hub, but it will also transform the country’s trade landscape by providing state-of-the-art infrastructure, reducing business costs, and reinforcing the DRC’s economic independence. During the development stage, it will create thousands of direct and indirect jobs. On completion it will:

• give the DRC its first fully equipped maritime gateway
• cut transport costs
• improve trade efficiency
• support local industries, from agriculture to manufacturing

Last week, Emirates Islamic successfully issued a US$ 750 million, five-year, Senior Unsecured Sukuk, at a 5.059% coupon rate, that was 2.1 times over-subscribed; 80% of the Sukuk was allocated to regional investors and the balance to international investors. The fact that over one hundred investors were interested, of which many were new, indicates the increasing recognition of Emirates Islamic among the global investor community.

The recent performance of UAE’s Islamic securities, helped by the country’s real estate boom, has given investors an average 2.5% return this year and has seen the country replace the US as the top sukuk performer in the Bloomberg benchmark for the asset class. The global sukuk index is heading for its third monthly advance, making its second-best start to a year on record. The sukuks of Emaar Properties PJSC and Aldar Properties PJSC are among the leading performers over that period.

At a shareholders’ meeting last week, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority’s general assembly, 92.2% of shareholders approved the payment of a total dividend of US$ 845 million for H2 of 2024; at the same meeting, a Board of Directors was elected for the next three years. Its chief executive, Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, noted that, “in 2024, DEWA Group delivered another year of strong performance, reporting consolidated full-year revenue of AED 30.98 billion, (US$ 844 million), EBITDA of AED 15.73 billion, (US$ 4.29 billion) and net profit after tax of AED 7.23 billion, (US$ 1.97 billion).  Our consolidated annual revenue grew by 6.17%, primarily driven by rising demand for electricity, water, and cooling services,” and that “DEWA’s network now serves over 1.27 million customer accounts, and we take pride in achieving the world’s lowest electricity line losses at 2%; the world’s lowest water network losses at 4.5%; the world’s lowest Customer Minutes Lost (CML) of less than one minute per year—setting a global benchmark for reliability.”

Drake & Scull posted a US$ 1.0 billion profit last year – a marked improvement on the US$ 73 million deficit in 2023; revenue came in at US$ 28 million, with gross profit increasing to US$ 1.4 million. Most of the profit emanated from a write-back of liabilities, resulting from the Dubai construction services firm implementing a restructuring plan approved by the Dubai Court of Appeal.  By the end of last year, the company had manged to cut its accumulated losses from US$ 1.36 billion to US$ 545 million, as it continues to ‘pursue legal cases to collect receivables’. Earlier in the year, it won a court case to recover US$ 41 million from its ex-CEO and another official. Drake & Scull has been awarded local contracts of over US$ 272 million and is in the throes of lining up an alliance that would possibly deliver contracts in Egypt and Saudi Arabia; there was also a recent project win in India.

There are on-going discussions which could result in the Indian billionaire Gautam Adani acquiring the Indian unit of Dubai-based developer Emaar Group at a potential enterprise value of $1.4 billion. It is reported the Adani family and Emaar are discussing the structure of a transaction, which could include an unlisted Adani unit infusing about US$ 400 million in equity. If the deal were to go through, it would enlarge Adani’s real estate portfolio in India, which covers twenty-four million sq ft of property and another sixty-one million sq ft under development. In January, the Dubai developer posted that it was in discussions with some groups in India, including Adani, about a potential sale of a stake in Emaar India Ltd which is developing residential and commercial projects in places including New Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Emaar Properties has approved a 100% dividend payout, amounting to US$ 2.40 billion, during this week’s Annual General Meeting. This was in line with the introduction of Emaar’s dividend policy, updated in December 2024.

At its Annual General Meeting, Emaar Development shareholders approved the Board of Directors’ proposal to distribute a dividend of US$ 736 million, representing 68% of the share capital. Last year, the company posted property sales of US$ 17.82 billion – 75% higher on the year – with annual increases in both total revenue – up 61.0% to US$ 5.20 billion – and net profit before tax, up 20% to US$ 2.78 billion.

Amlak Finance posted an 80.0% slump in net profit, to US$ 14 million, for the year ended 31 December 2024, with revenues, from financing and investing business activities, 10.7% higher at US$ 37 million, as total revenue dipped 23.2% to US$ 95 million. Operating costs fell 20.1% to US$ 32 million. The firm recorded a net gain of US$ 12 million (2023 – US$ 47 million) on debt settlement arrangements and was able to reduce its debt burden by US$ 65 million. During the year, it repaid US$ 141 million to financiers and an agreement was reached with the six remaining financiers on the repayment plan for the outstanding balance of US$ 265 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 24 March, two hundred and forty-eight points lower, (4.6%), the previous five weeks, gained ten points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,110 points, by Friday 28 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.03, closing on US$ 3.68 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.44 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.67, US$ 5.53 US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.37. On 28 March, trading was at eighty-six million shares, with a value of US$ eighty-nine million dollars, compared to two hundred and forty-five million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars, on 21 March.

By Friday, 28 March 2025, Brent, US$ 1.75 higher (2.5%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.62 (1.0%) to close on US$ 72.76. Gold, US$ 174 (5.9%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 25 (0.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,084 on 28 March.

In a deal worth US$ 98 million, WHSmith has agreed the sale of its UK high street business to Modella Capital who also own Hobbycraft. Although the WHSmith brand is not included in the sale, its retail outlets will be known as TG Jones meaning the two hundred and thirty-three firm’s old’s name will disappear from the high street. The high street shops employ 5k and have four hundred and eighty stores. All outlets, staff, assets and liabilities of the high street business will move under Modella Capital’s ownership. However, WH Smith will retain its brand name as a global travel retailer, operating in thirty-two countries, including at major airport locations, hospitals and railway stations in the UK. Before the sale, the retailer posted that 75% of its revenue stream and 85% of its trading profit emanated from its travel division.

In the continuing blame game, following the one day closure of LHR, that led to 1.3k flights and up to 200k passengers, being impacted,  John Pettigrew, the chief executive of National Grid has claimed that the facility had enough power from other substations; he noted that there were two other substations “always available for the distribution network companies and Heathrow to take power”, and that “each substation individually can provide enough power to Heathrow.”

Thomas Woldbye, the chief executive of the London Heathrow, who earned over US$ 4.0 million last year, was at an event in Central London when the accident happened at 11pm on Thursday night. He immediately rushed to the airport and, once the size of the incident became apparent, it was decided to split the crisis management team into two “gold commands”. A decision was taken to appoint the COO, Javier Echave, in charge and it was he who decided to close the airport at 1.44am. Meanwhile, Woldbye’s team went home presumably to bed, and he resumed work at 7.30am, before arriving at his office at 9.00am. (To make matters even worse for him, it appears that the likes of Sean Doyle and Shai Weiss, BA’s and Virgin Atlantic’s chiefs, worked through the night).

Later in the morning, the CEO met with Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander who told her that “whilst there are multiple power supplies into the airport, the fire had created a very significant problem with respect to terminals two and four specifically and that there had to be some reconfiguration of power supplies into the airport. That meant all the systems had to be turned off and all the systems had to be restarted again in a safe way.”

However, it seems that a 2014 report by consultancy firm Jacobs found a “key weakness” of Heathrow’s electricity supply was “main transmission line connections to the airport”. It stated, “outages could cause disruption to passenger, baggage and aircraft handling functions”, and “could require closure of areas of affected terminals or potentially the entire airport”. It did conclude that provision of on-site generation and other measures to ensure resilient supply appeared “to be adequate” to enable Heathrow “to withstand and recover from interruptions to supply”, and that the airport operated “within risk parameters that are not excessive or unusual for an airport of its type”.

This week, a group of ninety airlines has threatened to take legal action against Heathrow Airport if it cannot reach an “amicable” settlement over the costs caused by Friday’s eighteen-hour closure. The group also commented that Heathrow’s communication was “appalling”, with airlines having to wait until midnight on Friday to get confirmation that terminal two would open the next day. It was “not justifiable given the amount of money that has been spent on Heathrow over the years and the fact that it is the most expensive airport in the world”. The airport is a private company owned by French investment group Ardian, Qatar Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund plus others.

Last year, Tesla was beaten by China’s BYD when it came to revenue with the latter surpassing US$ 107 billion – 9.7% higher on the year than Tesla’s already published 2024 figures of US$ 97.7 billion; the return was 29.0% higher on the year. Profit, at a record US$ 5.55 billion, was 34% higher on the year, with vehicle sales of 4.3 million, 40% higher on the year – and for last month, up 161% to 318k. Having been the number one EV maker in China, the largest single global market, for several years, it is looking at furthering its overseas business. It appears keen to take a bigger slice of the European EV sector, with a new compact electric model and super-fast charging capabilities to rival continental brands. (The “Super e-Platform” battery and charging system boasts peak speeds of 1k kilowatts and allows cars to travel up to 470 km after a five-minute charge).  The move comes as Tesla’s sales in Europe have begun to slide for a myriad of reasons.

There is no doubt that Chinese EVs have had a head start on any of its overseas competition because of the huge amount of funds poured into the sector by state funds, so it is little wonder that the Chinee have won the race to provide cheaper, more fuel-efficient EVs over leading US and European automakers. It is reported that the EU is investigating claims that BYD’s new factory in Hungary, set to open later in 2025, has been provided with unfair subsidies from Beijing. However, BYD’s progress may be slowed somewhat by a double whammy of Donald Trump having recently imposed higher blanket tariffs on Chinese imports and growing geopolitical and trade tensions between Beijing and Western capitals may hinder BYD’s progress.

Lebanon’s erstwhile central bank supremo, Riad Salameh was the world’s longest-serving central bank governor, serving for thirty years before his ouster in July 2023, and had been labelled as the world’s worst central banker. Although he had been credited for maintaining, until 2019, the stability of the local currency, he has been accused of corruption, money laundering and running the largest Ponzi scheme in history. First vice-governor Wassim Manssouri had been acting head of the central bank since then until this week when the country’s cabinet named asset manager Karim Souaid as central bank governor. Since the country has been in economic chaos for the past five years – attributable to official mismanagement and corruption – this appointment could be a turning point in Lebanon’s history, with an urgent requirement of implementing economic reforms, demanded by the IMF and other international donors, to unlock much needed bailout funds.

Amid allegations of price gouging during the pandemic, the federal government directed the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission to investigate the supermarket sector. It found that Coles and Woolworths had increased their earnings margins in recent years, with a more significant increase at Woolworths, and also concluded   they have so much power that they do not need to compete hard on price. Although it concluded that “ALDI, Coles and Woolworths appear to be among the most profitable supermarket businesses globally,” the regulator, (or the toothless watch dog), stopped short of concluding that grocery prices were “excessive”, and did not declare that the two major players in the sector have a duopoly. The report found that “while input and operational costs have increased over this time, Coles and Woolworths have maintained or increased their product margins.” It also found Woolworths and Coles had enough power to affect the market price of products from some suppliers, and that “Coles and Woolworths have limited incentive to compete vigorously with each other on price.” The ACCC posted that suppliers were under the two major supermarkets’ thumb, especially those supplying fresh produce like fruit and vegetables.

Interestingly, “Coles and Woolworths earned higher average product margins on branded products than private label products over the last five financial years,” and that “branded products’ margins also increased over this period for both supermarkets, particularly for packaged goods.” It also raised concerns that suppliers face a ‘monopsony’, where there is effectively only one buyer for their products, with “Coles and Woolworths able to exercise monopsony power in their trading relationships with many suppliers in these supply chains.” The ACCC says fresh produce suppliers are particularly affected by market concentration and that there had been cases where suppliers can face costs such as freight and promotional charges, as well as “rebates” or enforced discounts on their bills when retailers make orders, and “many suppliers say they fear retribution from raising concerns with supermarkets.”

Not surprisingly, the regulator noted that when the supermarkets acted to reduce their costs, “they have not passed on to consumers the full benefit of savings from those initiatives.” Surprise, Surprise.

Although Japan’s February core consumer prices rose 3.0% on the year, the pace of increase slowed for the first time since October 2024, attributable, to some extent, to the resumption of state subsidies for utility bills. The increase in the core consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food, was 0.2% lower than January’s 3.2% return. For nearly three years, the inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target. Meanwhile, the core- CPI, which strips out both energy and fresh food to reflect underlying price trends, increased 2.6%.

In 2024, the EU posted annual declines in imported energy products to US$ 408.77 billion, 16.2% lower, as the net mass dipped 7.1% to 720.4 million tonnes. The largest partners for EU imports of petroleum oils were the US (16.1%), Norway (13.5%) and Kazakhstan (11.5%). Three countries accounted for 73.5% of imported LNG – US, Russia and Algeria – supplying 45.3%, 17.5% and 10.7% of the total. A major part of the natural gas in gaseous state came from Norway (45.6%)., Algeria (19.3%), and Russia (16.6%).

In an attempt, to ease all-time high egg prices for the American consumer, the Trump administration is planning to import supplies from Turkey and South Korea and “we are talking in the hundreds of millions of eggs for the short term,” according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Polish and Lithuanian poultry associations have both confirmed that they had also been approached by US embassies regarding possible egg exports. Earlier it announced a US$ 1.0 billion plan to combat a raging bird flu epidemic that has forced US farmers to cull tens of millions of chickens. Over the past twelve months, the cost of eggs has surged more than 65%, with a further 41% hike expected in 2025. The government official also confirmed that “when our chicken populations are repopulated and we’ve got a full egg laying industry going again, hopefully in a couple of months, we then shift back to our internal egg layers and moving those eggs out onto the shelf. ” Last month, her department also unveiled a US$ 1 billion, five-point plan to tackle the price of eggs, with US$ 500 million for biosecurity measures, US$ 100 million for vaccine R&D, and US$ 400 million for farmer financial relief programs. It will also provide commercial egg farms with best practices and consulting services for free and pay up to 75% of the costs to address vulnerabilities to help prevent the spread of bird flu.

This week, the US administration announced that it would introduce a 25% tariff on all cars, and car parts, being imported into the US. Later, US President Donald Trump said he may cut tariffs on China to help seal a deal for short video app TikTok to be sold by its owner ByteDance, adding that, “maybe I’ll give them a little reduction in tariffs or something to get it done,”  It is currently facing a 05 April deadline to find a non-Chinese buyer of the platform. In 2023, former President Joe Biden had cited security concerns for signing an order that TikTok, valued at billions of dollars, should not be in Chinese hands and if a suitable new owner could be found then it would be closed. The major problem to finalising a deal to sell the TikTok business has always been securing Beijing’s agreement.

With over one thousand, one hundred F-35s, having been built since 2006, the forty-seventh US President has awarded a multi-billion-dollar order to Boeing to launch the US Air Force’s most advanced fighter jet, the Next Generation Air Dominance aircraft, to be known as the F-47; sixteen global militaries still have F-35s in service. Donald Trump described it the “most lethal aircraft ever built” and said a version has been secretly flying for the last five years. The design of the “sixth generation” aircraft remains a closely guarded secret, but reportedly includes high advanced sensors and engines, in addition to their stealth capabilities; Lockheed Martin’s F22 will be retired in the early 2030s. The Boeing deal also marks a defeat for competitor Lockheed Martin, which was recently eliminated from a separate competition to build a next-generation aircraft for the US Navy.

With tensions mounting with many countries, because of threatened tariffs, sales of the company’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, a fifth-generation aircraft, could also be impacted. For example, both Canada and Portugal have already taken action – the former, with Mark Carney requesting his Defence Minister to review its purchase of the aircraft, which was developed with Canada as a partnership; the latter country’s outgoing defence minister is re-thinking a purchase of F-35s to replace its older aircraft, as a result of “recent positions” taken by the US government. Other countries are now considering purchases from European manufacturers, such as Dassault and Saab, even if those aircraft lack the stealth capabilities of the F-35.

In another blow to the struggling UK economy, Astra Zeneca has announced a US$ 2.5 billion investment to set up its sixth global strategic R&D centre in Beijing, as well as signing research and manufacturing agreements. In January, the UK’s biggest pharmaceutical company had already scrapped plans to expend US$ 581 million on expanding its vaccines plant in Liverpool. And last week, Tom Keith-Roach, AstraZeneca’s UK president, told MPs that the UK really was an “outlier now” as one of the most difficult places in the world to bring new medicines to patients. Its chief executive, Pascal Soriot said the investment reflected the “extensive opportunities that exist for collaboration and access to talent, and our continued commitment to China”. The company is facing some difficulties in China including the fact that Leon Wang, who was its China president, had been arrested in Shenzhen as part of an unknown investigation. It also revealed then that about one hundred former employees had been sentenced for alleged medical insurance fraud, dating back to 2021, relating to its Tagrisso cancer drug, and that Chinese authorities were also pursuing a separate investigation into the alleged illegal importation of unapproved medicines from Hong Kong. In February, it was warned that it faced enquiries about suspected unpaid import taxes of US$ 900k, which has been taken up by prosecutor’s office. It is hoped that the presence of its chief executive, who has been invited to join a Beijing international business leaders advisory council, will help the company avoid severe penalties from the investigations.

Since the arrival of the Labour administration, in July, the UK economy has seen little growth which had grown faster than initially estimated in H1 at 1.4% – 0.9% in Q1 and 0.5% in Q2. Q3 and Q4 saw zero growth and 0.1%. After the revisions, the ONS said the UK economy expanded by 1.1% in 2024, up from 0.9%.

The Financial Conduct Authority has fined the London Metal Exchange US$ 12.0 million, citing its failure to ensure it had adequate controls and its lack of systems and controls; this was the first enforcement action taken by the FCA against a UK-recognised investment exchange. This resulted in chaotic trading in the exchange’s nickel market in 2022, particularly in relation to volatility detection, In one day, 08 March 2022, the price of a three-month nickel futures contract more than doubled to over US$ 100k on the LME, with wild swings in the price of nickel and “undermined the orderliness of and confidence in the LME’s market”. The exchange suspended its nickel market for eight days, following “extreme volatility” over the four days to 08 March 2022. During the market’s Asian trading hours, between the hours of 1am and 7am, relatively junior staff, not properly trained to see the extraordinary swings and their bearing on the market, meant that this was not passed on to senior management at the LME; even worse, these staff took the decision to accommodate the price rises by disabling some controls which led to the price of the nickel futures contract increasing “much more quickly than would otherwise have been possible”. The financial watchdog noted that “the LME should have been better prepared to address the serious risks posed by extreme volatility,” and that “the LME swiftly implemented market enhancements. We fully recognise the important work the FCA continues to undertake in strengthening oversight of the OTC market.”

The Chancellor has also intimated that there may be changes in UK taxes on big tech firms, such as Meta and Amazon, and that talks are “ongoing” about tweaks to the Digital Services Tax; any changes would be part of a deal to avoid the ongoing round of Trump tariffs. When introduced in 2020, the 2% levy contributed to just over US$ 1.0 billion, and there are suggestions that this could be amended if the US did not impose the import tax on the UK. Rachel Reeves commented that “we want to make progress. We do not want to see British exporters subject to higher tariffs”, adding that “the US is “rightly concerned about countries that have large and persistent trade surpluses with the US. The UK is not one of those countries. We have balanced trade between our countries”.

There were not too many surprises in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. As expected, she took a knife to day-to-day government spending by slashing it by US$ 7.89 billion in 2028 – 2029, with the welfare budget reduced by less than originally thought by US$ 4.40 billion, as she tightened the eligibility criteria for PIP and scrapped the work capability assessment for Universal Credit. However, damage was done, as it was estimated that some 3.2 million families will lose an average US$ 2.23k by 2029 – 2030. She also announced a 4.1% hike in the state pension triple lock from next month, a US$ 2.60 billion investment in social and affordable housing and US$ 776 million to train up 60k new construction workers. There will be an additional US$ 2.85 billion in defence spending, whilst UK Export Finance will see US$ 2.60 billion of increased capacity “to provide loans for overseas buyers of UK defence goods and services”. By cutting overseas aid to 0.3% of GDP, it is expected there will be savings of US$ 3.36 billion. She also announced planning reforms, including the re-introduction of mandatory housing targets and utilising ‘grey belt’ land into scope for development; this should see 1.3 million new homes being built over the next five years.

People in glass houses should not throw stones is a common saying but the Labour Party is still learning the lesson. It seemed that as soon as it entered into power after last July’s election, it was enmeshed in numerous incidents involving clothes, glasses, and football tickets. Gift donors and businesses were falling over themselves to enamour themselves with the new government. At the time, it appeared that just about every cabinet minister wound up at Taylor Swift’s Eras tour without paying. Even then, Rachel Reeves was in on the act admitting that she had accepted a cash donation from Juliet Rosenfield for her campaign wardrobe and now a week before her Spring Statement, she is found to have accepted free tickets, worth US$ 1k, to see Sabrina Carpenter at London’s O2. The lady, who earns US$ 118k as an MP, (and going up soon) and over US$ 87k, for being Chancellor, cited security reason for her misdemeanour, with her boss saying he “supports all his ministers making their own judgements” when it comes to accepting gifts”. Probably a bad idea in the week when she had to announce massive spending cuts, and not helped by Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, who told a reporter that she was too busy to accept things like free concert tickets. Maybe the word from the Prime Minster should be Let Them Eat Cake!