All You Need Is A Friend!                                                                      18 April 2025

Dubai’s pro-active government initiatives, investor-friendly policies, strategic location, and world-class infrastructure continue to attract global buyers. Q1 total transaction value of US$ 31.08 billion marked a 29.2% annual increase with a 23.1% hike in volume to 42.27k transactions. According to analysis by Springfield Properties, there have been 24.92k transactions for Q1 off-plan properties – an impressive 24.6% higher on the year. Betterhomes data shows that Indian investors accounted for 28% of the total in early 2025, (up on the year from 19%), with Mexican and Pakistani nationals both pulling in 11%. The consultancy added that Jordanian, Canadian, Lebanese, Moroccan, Egyptian, Austrian, UK, Albanian, and Italian buyers each accounted for 6% of the total. This sustained demand has been driven by the usual factors including competitive pricing, flexible payment plans, and strong capital appreciation potential. The consultancy noted that “as 2025 unfolds, the off-plan market remains a promising avenue for investors seeking long-term gains in a dynamic and thriving real estate environment”.

This week, AMIS Development launched a US$ 27 million project in Meydan. Woodland Crest offers 1- and 2-bedroom apartments fitted with smart home technology, with facilities including a rooftop gym, infinity pool, steam room, sauna, alfresco lounge, library, and AMIS Café on the ground floor. 75% of the payment schedule is tied to building milestones, with the project scheduled for completion in Q2 2027. Last year, the company secured investment from Singapore’s First APAC Fund VCC in 2024, which agreed to invest up to US$ 1.36 billion in the Dubai developer The firm’s portfolio includes Woodland Residences, a US$ 116 million villa development, and Woodland Terraces, a US$ 35 million project, both in Meydan’s District 11.

Taiyo Residences by LMD was launched at this week’s IPO 2025. The development, located at Wasl Gate in Jebel Ali Dubai, will comprise a basement + ground + podium + twelve floors, and house a range of three hundred and seventy-nine luxury affordable studios, along with 1, 2 & 3 bedroom apartments. Handover of the US$ 109 million project will be by Q1 2028. Amenities will cover every aspect of modern living, from fitness and wellness to recreation and relaxation and include outdoor gyms, a lap pool, a beach pool, a kids’ pool, a kids’ area, as well as an outdoor martial arts studio and a paddle court. Furthermore, there will be a BBQ area, gaming lounge, table tennis, billiards, a PlayStation zone, wellness spaces including co-working areas, a quiet zone, reading lounges, and a coffee bar. The real estate developer, founded in 2007, has a diverse portfolio spanning the UAE, Egypt, Spain, and Greece. Since its establishment in 2011, it has over 3.4k units across the emirate.

There are reports that the first Trump International Tower could be launched in Q2, at a possible US$ 545 million cost, with Dar Global as the developer. Its location will be somewhere off SZR and in the ‘wider’ Downtown area. There are other Trump-branded projects in Dubai, but this will be the first tower. (A forty-seven-storey Trump tower was launched recently in Jeddah, with completion set for 2029, with unit prices starting from US$ 453k). If it goes ahead there will be two landmark skyscraper developments – Burj Azizi, (the second tallest building in the world), and Trump Tower – being built in the same area.

BEYOND Developments has launched The Mural, its fourth project within its eight million sq ft Dubai Maritime City masterplan. Its first two projects were Saria and Orise, with the third project Sebsia sold out within two days. Designed by British architectural firm BENOY and located at the tip of DMC, adjacent to a master-planned forest, the thirty-six-storey tower will house a selection of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments, duplexes, maisonettes, and a penthouse. Other amenities include a state-of-the-art gym, an infinity pool complex, landscaped terraces, BBQ/dining areas, and a dedicated yoga zone; completion is slated for Q2 2028.

Another indicator that Dubai’s property sector is booming comes with Azizi announcing that it plans to recruit 7k new employees in 2025, having already employed 1.62k professional staff YTD. The Dubai-based property developer noted that its workforce started with seven in 2007 and has now a payroll of 36k, of which 6k are white collar staff. It is estimated that the company currently has around 150k units under construction, valued at tens of billions of US dollars, including the world’s second-tallest skyscraper

Even during the holy month of Ramadan, business did not slow down, with Reidin-GCP data, posting that, in March, there were twenty-three new residential projects launched in Dubai – and a further forty-nine announced. It noted that “Emaar led the activity with the highest number of launches, while developers such as Imtiaz and Sobha also contributed”. It also sees Dubai Islands gaining in popularity, with four launches and eight announcements; currently “Dubai Islands is gaining prominence as a coastal extension of ‘Old Dubai’ with more than 7k residential units under construction.” Other locations, such as Satwa, Al Furjan and Emaar South, witnessed several launches in the month. The conclusion is that Dubai realty is alive and kicking.

Monday saw the opening of the twenty-first edition of the IPS 2025 Show, organised by the Dubal Land Department, at Dubai Centre. The three-day International Property Show welcomed more than five hundred delegates from countries such as Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Panama, Portugal, Spain and the US, along with over three hundred exhibitors from Bahrain, China, Georgia, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, Oman, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Spain and the US. Majid Al Marri, from the DLD, noted that “aligned with the objectives of the Dubai Real Estate Strategy 2033, the exhibition serves as a comprehensive platform that unites key local and international stakeholders in real estate investment, further cementing Dubai’s position as a premier global hub for innovative, smart, and sustainable real estate development”. The event will include a diverse lineup of activities across five thematic pillars – real estate, future cities, startups & proptech, design and services. Dawood Al-Shezawi, head of the Organising Committee of IPS, said that Dubai had attracted more than 110k new investors in 2024, with a higher target for this year.

In 2024, Dubai posted US$ 207.36 billion worth of transactions with the DLD having a target of US$ 272.48 billion, (AED 1 trillion) by 2033, in line with the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033. To reach this aim, (and because they are the biggest contributors in the Dubai environment), the emirate is trying to attract more Indian investors. Speaking at the exhibition, Majid Saqer Al Marri, CEO of the Real Estate Registration Sector at DLD, noted that “Indians are at the top internationally, so we are trying to attract investors from India. We are also looking forward to successful participation and attracting real estate funds from India.” Like other international players, they are attracted by higher returns on investment, affordability, safety/security, and lifestyle aspects.

Lulu has tied up with Awqaf Dubai (the Endowment and Minors Trust Foundation) communities to open hypermarkets and supermarkets. It will collaborate with Awqaf Dubai at its future community projects, creating shopping options for residents and visitors. Its first venture will be a hypermarket in Khawaneej-2 by mid-year, and ‘marking the beginning of a series of planned developments across the city’.

A triple agreement, involving the Investment Corporation of Dubai, Accor and hospitality management firm Valor Hospitality Partners, sees the opening of a six-hotel cluster at the rapidly developing Deira Waterfront.  The development integrates three existing Accor properties – operating under the ibis Styles – Aparthotel Adagio, and Mercure brands – with three brand-new additions bearing the Novotel, ibis Styles, and Mercure names. (Accor operates over two hundred and ninety properties in the ME, with a further one hundred and thirty in the pipeline and operational by 2028). It plans to expand further, adding one hundred and thirty new addresses by 2028. Valor will manage the nine hundred and ninety-nine-key cluster, which is part of the Deira Enrichment Program. This project hopes to tap into the increasing demand for mid-scale hotels.

According to KPMG’s latest 2024 Hospitality Report, Dubai hotels’ occupancy rose 0.6% to 77.7%, with an average daily rate, 1.7% higher at over US$ 181. The consultancy also discovered that there was a 2% rise, to 94%, in the satisfaction rate of tourists with Dubai hotels, with 80% indicating that they would book to stay again in a Dubai hotel. Government initiatives, including the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, are positioning Dubai as a top three global tourism destination by 2033. Another driver, in hiking numbers higher, is the extended tourist visa for Indian nationals, with 70% of respondents saying they are more likely to visit the UAE due to this policy change. Another point raised by the KPMG survey was that there was a growing demand for unique experiences and personalised services that allow guests to immerse themselves in the local culture. Concluding, KPMG noted that Dubai’s hospitality industry was witnessing a surge, driven by favourable economic conditions, government initiatives, and a robust real estate sector in both luxury and affordable housing.

A major US$ 136 million investment, by Majid Al Futtaim, will result in the Mall of the Emirates seeing the addition of one hundred new stores, a new theatre, a new indoor/outdoor dining precinct, more entertainment spaces and wellness centres. Work has already started on the project to add 20k sq mt of additional retained space. The New Covent Garden theatre is set to soft-launch in mid-2025, with a grand opening later in the year, while the multi-offering precinct’s lifestyle and entertainment spaces will be ready by 2026. It will have rehearsal spaces and six hundred seats. Four new entertainment offerings will be launched by late 2026, alongside the debut of the world’s most advanced IMAX experience at VOX Cinemas. Majid Al Futtaim owns assets valued at US$ 19 billion, has a 43k payroll, as well as owning and operating twenty-nine shopping malls, seven hotels and five mixed-use communities.

Dubai’s latest shopping mall is due to open this week, with the 500k sq ft mixed use destination housing a wide range of over one hundred stores, including retail, fitness, entertainment, dining, and healthcare. Developed by Dubai Holding Asset Management, the Nad Al Sheba Mall will also offer a vibrant social destination, with such premium wellness amenities, (comprising a rooftop gym, swimming pool, and padel courts), along with parking for over nine hundred vehicles. Anchor stores include Spinneys, Parkers, Union Coop, Salt, Home Bakery, Fit N Glam, Go Sport, Fun City and Orange Wheels. The new centre will help meet the emirate’s target to grow retail sales by 28.7%, to US$ 139.1 billion by 2028.

Taaleem has announced that the first Harrow School in Dubai, with openings for 1.8k students, will be located on a 50k sq mt plot in Hessa Street. Scheduled for opening from the start of the 2026 academic year, it will be some five hundred and fifty-four years after the first Harrow school was founded in England in 1572. Taaleem, who are exclusive operators of the brand in the UAE, noted that “the school (in Dubai) will join the prestigious Harrow family, offering a British-style curriculum deeply rooted in a long-standing tradition of academic excellence and leadership development”. Fees are expected to be in the region of US$ 22k, (AED 80k) for primary years, exceeding US$ 27k + for Year 6 pupils.

The UAE will soon see more options open in the super-premium K12 education environment, with  demand for a seat across leading schools in the UAE continuing to reach new highs; the main drivers include the growing population, with Dubai having four million residents by the end of 2025,  more people making Dubai their home base, (rather than just a two year transit stop) and recent visa reforms, to attract the world’s wealthy. Over time, there will be an increasing niche demand for super premium education for all ages – and perhaps some more foreign universities.

A report by the Airports Council International confirmed, yet again, Dubai International Airport’s position as the world’s busiest airport, in terms of international passenger traffic for 2024. On a global perspective, total passenger numbers closed in on the 9.5 billion mark – a 9.0% increase. compared to 2023 figures and 3.8% higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic figures representing an increase of 9.0% from 2023 or a 3.8% rise from the 2019 pre-pandemic level. The top ten busiest airports, representing an annual 9.0%, (or 855 million passengers), of global traffic and was 8.8% higher on the year, and up 8.4% on 2019 results (789 million pax). The top three airports, (including both international and domestic passengers), were Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport followed by Dubai International Airport and Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. Air cargo volumes jumped an annual 8.4% (3.9% versus 2019) to over 124 million metric tonnes in 2024.

On the sidelines of the IATA World Cargo Symposium 2025, it was announced that EK will more than double its freighter fleet from ten to twenty-one aircraft by the end of next year. Nabil Sultan, Divisional Senior Vice President at Emirates SkyCargo, said, “we currently operate ten owned freighters, in addition to six leased aircraft, and expect to receive eleven new Boeing 777Fs by the end of 2026.”  He added that Emirates SkyCargo’s dedicated freighter network currently spans thirty-eight destinations, with plans to add twenty more in the coming years. He concluded, saying that the Government of Dubai was developing DWC into the world’s largest air cargo hub, with a handling capacity of up to twelve million tonnes, and that “we aim to be a core enabler in achieving Dubai’s vision to become the global capital for multimodal cargo”.

dnata was in the news this week having handled one million tonnes in the twelve months ending 31 March 2025 – 30.0% higher on the year and the first time that the annual one million figure has been breached. The Emirates-owned business, operating from both of Dubai’s international airports, DXB and DWC, serves more than one hundred and twenty airline customers, safely managing a broad range of cargo, including perishables, pharmaceuticals, dangerous goods, live animals, aircraft engines and vehicles. dnata also provides quality and safe ground handling and cargo services at over ninety airports in sixteen countries, handling 2.9 million tonnes of global cargo – 5.0% higher on the year.

It also announced that it was expending US$ 110 million to launch three major facility investments in the UAE, Netherlands and Iraq this year, as it sets to strengthen its capabilities across its global operations; all three have been designed to reduce manual handling, improve real-time visibility, and enable scalable automation. The Dubai US$ 27 million expansion is a 57k sq mt cargo centre at Dubai South, that will process up to 400k tonnes of cargo annually. Clive Sauvé-Hopkins, dnata’s CEO, Airport Operations, noted that “our latest investments prioritise automation, scalability and energy efficiency, enabling us to support our customers more effectively in a fast-changing logistics environment.”

In its fifteenth annual report, Brand Finance, based on one hundred and twenty-four brands, across thirty markets, has ranked Emirates the fourth most valuable airline in the world, worth US$ 8.4 billion, behind Delta, United and American Airlines, valued at US$ 14.9 billion, US$ 12.3 billion and US$ 11.7 billion. In the remaining six places were Southwest, BA, China Airlines, Qatar, Air Canada and China Eastern. In the strongest airlines brand 2025 sector, EK came in fifth, (with 86.0 points), behind Southwest, Jet2.com, Indigo and ANA, with 91.1, 88.6, 87.6 and 86.2.

The construction of Bharat Mart in Dubai has started, which is expected to be a boost for Indian businesses seeking to expand their regional coverage. The 2.7 million sq ft B2B and B2C marketplace is set to open by the end of 2026 in Jebel Ali Free Zone and will serve as a one-stop platform for Indian exporters. Located eleven km from Jebel Ali Port and fifteen km from Al Maktoum International Airport – with Etihad Rail nearby – it will feature 1.5k showrooms and over 700k sq ft of warehousing, light industrial units, office space, and meeting facilities. Bharat Mart will offer Indian businesses access to a multimodal logistics network and onward connectivity with one hundred and fifty maritime destinations and over three hundred global cities. Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, commented that, “with non-oil bilateral trade surpassing US$ 80 billion and over 2.3k Indian companies thriving in Jafza, Bharat Mart will further strengthen the UAE-India partnership by providing Indian goods faster access to global markets”.

DP World Jebel Ali, the latest addition to the port operator’s Marine Services fleet, will be integrated into Unifeeder’s Asian Gulf ISC Service. It is a Sapphire 5300 compact gearless container vessel, with cutting-edge maritime technologies designed to enhance cargo handling efficiency, reduce operational costs and contribute to a more sustainable maritime industry. It is expected to save approximately an annual 1.7k metric tonnes of bunker fuel, leading to a 15% to 20% reduction in carbon emissions for its intended routes.

Good news from the RTA sees that road fatalities in Dubai have dropped dramatically from 21.7 per 100k people in 2007 to 1.8 per 100k last year, with pedestrian fatalities falling from 9.5 per 100k to 0.3 per 100k in 2024; the combined rate of fatalities and serious injuries declined from 36.2 to just 4.0 per 100k. Over the same eighteen-year, period, the death rate per 10k registered vehicles also fell from 4.2 to 0.45, as the population surges 252.5% from 1.530 million to 3.863 million. The figures were announced at a regular meeting of the Roads and Transport Authority and Dubai Police to review the progress on the Dubai Traffic Safety Strategy 2022–2026 and examine the road safety performance indicators for 2024. The strategy has a ‘Zero Fatalities’ vision.

Last Monday, 14 April, the RTA metro station on the Red Line of the Dubai Metro changed its name from CCICO station to Al Garhoud Metro Station. Last month, Dubai’s Al Khail Metro station was renamed Al Fardan Exchange, after the RTA had signed an agreement granting the financial service provider naming rights for the Metro station.

January figures from the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates showed that gold reserves surged by 6.9% to US$ 6.69 billion Meanwhile demand deposits grew 0.6% to US$ 304.09 billion – split between US$ 228.09 billion in local currency and approximately US$ 76.00 in foreign currencies. Savings deposits increased by 1.7% to US$ 87.81 billion, with the local currency balance at US$ 73.78 billion, and in foreign currencies, around US$ 14.03 billion. Fixed-term deposits reached US$ 252.38 billion, with US$ 150.53 billion dominated in local currency and US$ 101.83 billion in foreign currencies. There was a 1.4% increase in the net international reserves of the UAE banking1.4% sector, reaching US$ 399.45 billion.

The UAE’s first cargo-only airline, SolitAir, has officially received its Air Operator Certificate  from its aviation watchdog, the General Civil Aviation Authority. The Dubai World Central-headquartered middle-mile air cargo operator, with a 220k sq ft logistics centre, SolitAir has also announced the addition of a fourth aircraft to its fleet. Its founder and CEO, Hamdi Osman, who retired as Senior Vice President of FedEx, in 2012, after thirty-four years’ service, noted that, “receiving the AOC from the UAE’s competent authority is a testament to our operational excellence and readiness to drive innovation in air cargo transportation”. It is expected that its market will be “fifty cities within a six-hour radius of UAE, our vision is to become the leading digital, daily scheduled, time-sensitive, express middle mile airline transportation company, meeting twelve to twenty-four-hour connectivity needs”.

A new IATA study shows that aviation and related tourism, in 2023, contributed US$ 92 billion to the UAE’s economy, contributing 18.2% of the country’s GDP. Furthermore, it supported a massive 992k jobs, of which 74.5k are employed directly by airlines. The world agency also lauded the UAE for its strategic vision and investment in world-class infrastructure, calling the country a “critical hub for global connectivity.”

According to Pakistan’s Ambassador to the UAE, Faisal Tirmizi, bilateral trade topped US$ 10.9 billion last year. Of that figure, goods trade came in at US$ 8.41 billion, comprising exports up 41.06% to US$ 2.08 billion, with imports declining 14.45% to US$ 6.33 billion, resulting in a 28.28% reduction in the trade deficit. The services sector witnessed a 20.54% increase to US$ 2.56 billion. Meanwhile, remittances from the Pakistani community, in the UAE, (numbering 1.5 million), reached US$ 6.7 billion last year and are expected to surpass $7 billion in 2025. He noted that “these figures reflect not only the strength of our economic partnership, but also the vital role played by the Pakistani diaspora in supporting the national economy”.

Last month, E& posted record 2024 figures including a 10.1% increase in revenue, at US$ 16.31 billion, and consolidated net profit of US4 2.94 billion – up 4.3% on the year. The main drivers, behind the impressive results, include it progressing on geographic expansion, revenue diversification and scaling up digital verticals. On Tuesday, shareholders approved the Board’s recommendation for FY 2024 for a cash dividend of US$ 0.226. 

With many analysts spouting that Dubizzle would probably be a possibility for a local IPO, it has gone out and acquired the local property platform Property Monitor. It noted that “integrating Property Monitor into Dubizzle Group’s real estate offering enhances the value proposition for agencies and developers by delivering a more comprehensive and data-rich user experience”. Property Monitor has more than 7.7k monthly users including real estate agencies and developers. Over the past two years, Dubizzle has bought Hatla2ee, a leading marketplace in Egypt for used and new cars, and Drive Arabia, the automotive news, which reviews and car comparisons portal. The Dubizzle Group portals draw forty-seven million monthly visits and fifteen million monthly users.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 14 April, one hundred and fifteen points higher, (2.3%), the previous week, gained one hundred and thirty-one points (2.6%), to close the trading week on 5,097 points, by Friday 18 April 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.053 closing on US$ 3.31 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.25 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.34 and closed on US$ 0.71, US$ 5.30 US$ 2.04 and US$ 0.36. On 18 April, trading was at one hundred and fifty-three million shares, with a value of US$ seventy-five million dollars, compared to one hundred and forty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and thirty-three million dollars, on 11 April.

By Friday, 18 April 2025, Brent, US$ 7.27 lower (10.3%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 3.26 (5.0%) to close on US$ 67.85. Gold, US$ 214 (7.0%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 103 (3.2%) to end the week’s trading at a record US$ 3,341 on 18 April. By The four main drivers, behind the 2025 Gold Rush, are the possibility of a global recession, (and at least an economic slowdown), more worldwide rate cuts, robust buying by many of the world’s central banks, and uncertainty over the Trump tariffs. YTD, the yellow metal has surged US$ 717, equivalent to 31.8%.

By Monday, the greenback weakened for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2% after tumbling to its lowest since October in early Asian trading; this gauge had already slumped nearly 6% YTD, driven by uncertainty relating to the tariffs, rising trade concerns and the US-China tensions. It seems likely that the dollar will continue its downward trend until more normality returns to the markets and there has been a settlement of the tariff ‘war’. The money seems to be on the dollar continuing to weaken, especially against the euro and the yen, along with the possibility of a mini recession. There is no doubt that it will bounce back but the problem is nobody knows when. It is also unlikely that the Federal Reserve would step in to support financial markets. The Trump administration’s decision to limit exports of its H20 AI chip, (along with its AMDs M308 and their equivalents), to China, could cost Nvidia up to US$ 5.5 billion in charges, associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments and related reserves. The US have been trying to restrict the export of the most advanced chips to China in an attempt to maintain its leading position in the AI race. Accordingly, the tech giant then began designing chips that would come as close as possible to US limits. However, its H20 was its most advanced chip on sale in China and is an integral part of its strategy to stay a player in the booming Chinese market. Because of the surging demand for low-cost AI models from Start-up DeepSeek, domestic companies such as Tencent, Alibaba and TikTok had been ramping up orders for the H20 chip. Nvidia confirmed that the US government was restricting H20 sales to China because of the risk the chips could be used in a supercomputer. The company also announced it was planning to build AI servers, worth as much as US$ 500 billion, in the US over the next four years. Reports indicate an imminent deal that would see Hilco Capital, which has recently backed retailers including HMV and Superdry, fund a buyout of Lakeland. This comes after the sixty-one-year-old family-owned homewares retailer had been involved in discussions, for months, with a number of potential buyers, including Modella Capital, the firm which recently agreed to buy WH Smith’s high street chain.  The company, now run by the three sons of its founder, Alan Rayner, has been seeking tens of millions of pounds of new funding as it faces headwinds including the national insurance hike in employers’ contribution, by 1.2% to 15.0%, and the raising of the minimum wage which both started this month. It employs about one thousand and has a chain of some sixty stores around the country selling a product line of more than four thousand items. The latest available accounts show that sales were largely flat at US$ 200 million along with an auditor’s warning of a “material uncertainty…[about] the company’s ability to continue as a going concern”.   Not before time, the Financial Reporting Council has opened an investigation into the accounting industry and specifically into the way Big 4 Audit firm, EY, audited Post Office Limited’s annual accounts in the four years between 2015 – 2018. It was noted that it will be examined “with particular reference to matters related to the Horizon IT system”.   As a result of having gained market share in the industry, Sainsburys has seen operating profit climb over US$ 1.37 billion, (over GBP 1.0 billion) for the year to 28 February 2025. Full year sales, excluding fuel, were 4.2% higher at US$ 35.27 billion, with grocery sales climbing 4.5%. A supermarket price war looms after Tesco’s boss warned last week that fresh price cuts at rival Asda had “intensified” competition in the sector and would hurt profits. One disappointing point was the 2.7% reverse at its Argos general merchandise division sales. However, it expects a slowdown in 2025 mainly due to rising competition and higher costs such as the increases in employers’ national insurance contributions and the raising of the minimum wage level. In January, the retailer announced plans to close all of its in-store cafes and retrench 3k staff   Last Saturday, the UK government introduced a ban on personal imports of meat and dairy products which has been extended to cover all EU countries to safeguard the UK food system and farmers against foot and mouth disease.  From 12 April, travellers will no longer be able to bring cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into the UK for personal use, to protect the health of British livestock, the security of farmers, and the UK’s food security. This includes bringing items like sandwiches, cheese, cured meats, raw meats or milk into GB– regardless of whether it is packed or packaged or whether it has been bought at duty free. The government had already banned personal imports of cattle, sheep and other ruminants and pig meat as well as dairy products, from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria earlier this year in response to confirmed outbreaks of FMD in those countries. The new restrictions apply only to travellers arriving in GB and will not be imposed on personal imports arriving from Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man. Those found with these items will need to either surrender them at the border or will have them seized and destroyed. In serious cases, those found with these items run the risk of incurring fines of up to US$ 650 in England.   The legal battle between Byju Raveendran has been escalated by the founder of the embattled edtech giant, Byju, deciding to file a police complaint. The plaintiffs are the former insolvency resolution professional Pankaj Agrawal and three EY executives, (Dinkar, Rahul, and Lokesh), of orchestrating a “criminal conspiracy” to sabotage his company. It appears that a whistleblower had suggested  EY sided with Byju’s US lenders’ trustee, Glas Trust, against the edtech firm’s interests. Raveendran also urged EY Chairman Rajiv Memani to suspend the executives and claimed to have “tons of proof” to support his allegations, one of which was a video that apparently showing the individuals being caught conspiring to fabricate fraud accusations against him.  Glas Trust has called Raveendran’s accusations, “baseless and fabricated,” according to media reports, and noted that that Raveendran was attempting to deflect responsibility after a judicial process placed his company, Think & Learn (Byju’s parent), into insolvency proceedings. Another legal suit brought on by Byju’s Alpha, (a financing arm of Byju’s) filed a lawsuit in a US court, accusing Raveendran, his wife Divya Gokulnath, and top advisor Anita Kishore of unlawfully diverting US$ 533 million from the company; this came after a Delaware Bankruptcy Court ruling, alleged that the funds were hidden or misused through a fraudulent scheme. It has fallen somewhat since its 2022 valuation of US$ 22.0 billion.   Last year, China was the EU’s largest partner for imports of rare earth elements, accounting for 6.0k tonnes, (equating to 46.3% of the total weight of imports), followed by Russia and Malaysia with 3.7k tonnes and 2.6k tonnes, (28.4% and 19.9%) In 2024, a total of 12.9k tonnes of rare earth elements were imported in 2024, marking a decrease of 29.3%. At the same time, there was an 0.8% dip in exports from the EU, at 5.5k tonnes. Rare earth elements are a group of seventeen specialty metals, with a high supply risk and of significant economic importance, used in various high-tech applications.   The National Bureau of Statistics posted that in Q1, China’s GDP grew 5.4% on the year, reaching US$ 4.42 trillion; on a quarterly basis, the economy increased 1.2% in Q1. In 2024, the country’s GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year, with the same figure its target for 2025 growth. There was a very impressive 47.1% Q1 annual hike in the Chinese sales of NEVs which topped 3.08 million vehicles, accounting for 41.2% of total vehicle sales. There were measures implemented to spur consumption resulting in total Q1 auto output, 14.5% higher at 7.56 million units, with sales increasing 11.2% to 7.47 million vehicles. China’s auto exports maintained steady growth momentum, 7.3% higher on the year, with NEV exports soaring 43.9% year-on-year to 441k units. The fact that it is estimated that about three hundred US abattoirs have not had their export licences renewed to export beef to China, could reap rewards for Australia. (It seems that last month, US pork and chicken plants had their export registrations renewed but there had been problems with beef plants). There are hopes that the country could benefit from the US$ 2.5 billion beef trade and is in a great position to at least fill part of the gap. Last year, it exported beef, valued at US$ 1.6 billion to China, making it the third-largest export destination. Australian statistics have seen 21.9k tonnes of grain-fed beef shipped in February and March – 40% higher on the year. It appears that Australia is now the only supplier of high-quality white fat marbled beef into China. However, there is a caveat with shadow trade minister Kevin Hogan warning, “in the short term this trade war might present opportunities for Australian beef exports, but the bigger picture here is, if this tariff war slows growth in both the US and China, then demand for a lot of the things we sell overseas would slow.” Providing a big break to tech firms like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Dell Technologies, that rely on imported products, Donald Trump has granted exclusions from reciprocal tariffs to smartphones, computers and some other electronics imported largely from China. The notice to shippers, effective from 05 April, published a list of twenty tariff codes excluded from the import taxes, including the broad 8471 code for all computers, laptops, disc drives and automatic data processing, as well as semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays. The list also excludes the specified electronics from his 10% “baseline” tariffs on goods from most countries, other than China, easing import costs for semiconductors from Taiwan and Apple iPhones produced in India. Trump’s prior 20% duties on all Chinese imports that he said were related to the US fentanyl crisis remain in place. Although not known for its accurate forecasting, the IMF continues to test the water and has commented that “our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession”. Although it did concur that trade tariff uncertainty is “literally off the charts”, and that it had resulted in an “erosion of trust” between countries, other world bodies were not as bullish, with the WTO forecasting that growth will fall this year, the BoE indicating that rising trade tensions from tariffs have “contributed to a material increase in the risk to global growth” and financial stability, and the ECB confirming that it had reduced its key interest rate “owing to rising trade tensions”. As widely expected, the ECB announced a 25 bp cut to its key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate — the bank’s main interest rate —dipping to 2.25% – and its seventh reduction over the past ten months. The European central bank pointed to a deterioration in growth prospects due to escalating trade tensions, with Christine Lagarde expressing worries that rising uncertainty could further weaken consumer confidence among and tighten financial conditions. Nevertheless, Lagarde affirmed that the ECB’s efforts to curb inflation remain on track. Latest EU figures indicates that the employment rate in 2024 rose 0.5% to a record 197.6 million people among the bloc’s twenty to sixty-four year olds, equating to 75.8% of the population. The highest employment rates were recorded in the Netherlands (83.5%), Malta (83.0%) and Czechia (82.3%), with the lowest rates posted in Italy (67.1%), Greece (69.3%) and Romania (69.5%). Statistics also revealed the over-qualification rate, (when people with tertiary education are employed in occupations that do not require such a high level of education) was 21.3% for men and 22.0% for women. The over qualification rate was at its highest in Spain, Greece and Cyprus – 35.0%, 33.0% and 28.2% – with Luxembourg, Croatia and Czechia at the other end of the spectrum at 4.7%, 12.6% and 12.8%. In the quarter ending 28 February, UK wage growth nudged 0.1% higher to 5.9%, year on year, and a month ahead of April’s higher payroll taxes and a lifting of the national living wage; the Office for National Statistics had forecast 6.0% growth. Over the same period, the employment rate among the sixteen to sixty-four-year-olds was at 75.1%, with the unemployment rate flat at 4.4%, as job vacancies dipped a further 22k to below pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021. Although the job market is weakening, wage growth is still robust enough to cause concern that it is still above levels consistent with the inflation target. This may also cause the BoE to worry about when to cut rates again.   One of the first issues the new Labour government settled once it got into power was to settle two doctors’ disputes. The first involved family s family doctors’ work-to-rule-style measures and the second, junior doctors who had been taking industrial action for over two years before the incoming Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, settled the dispute with a 22% pay rise over two years. Prior to the agreement, they had arranged eleven strikes over a forty-four-day period in H2 2024. Seven months after settling their dispute they have voted to restart their dispute, much to the probable chagrin of Keir Starmer.   The Starmer administration should milk all the latest March inflation news as much as they can because the 2025 United Kingdom local elections will be held on 01 May 2025 for one thousand six hundred and forty-one council seats, across twenty-four local authorities well before the April figures are released. For the second consecutive month, inflation fell by 0.2%, as it did a month earlier, to 2.6%. The figures indicate that prices are nudging higher at the slowest pace since December and nearing the BoE’s 2.0% target. However, one thing is certain, the April figures will head in the other direction, as energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month. Furthermore, with Easter occurring in April, traditionally air fares and hospitality head north – last year, it was in March. It does seem that the Starmer administration could have acted much earlier to try to solve the acute problem of British Steel. UK ministers vacillated and let the crisis continue until well after the deadline. Jingye, the Chinee owners of the Scunthorpe steelworks, was the only company in the country to produce virgin steel. (Virgin steel is made from iron ore using extreme heat from coal-fired blast furnaces to break it down. It is the strongest steel and can be used in all steel products, whereas steel made in electric furnaces is not strong enough for some uses). It also employs 2.7k employees in a town of only 81k, where many others would be impacted by any permanent closure. Only last Friday, it was decided to recall parliament which voted through legislation allowing ministers to seize control of British Steel from Jingye.  With local elections early next month, it seemed that Starmer was concerned that his main rival, Nigel Farage, and his Reform party, have been calling for the nationalisation of the Scunthorpe plant for some time. The furnaces urgently require fuel supplies, and it seems likely that the Royal Navy will be called in to ameliorate the process.

Earlier in the week, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that the administration was looking at trade deals drafted by more than fifteen countries, and that some deals with countries will be announced “very soon”. On Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance said he believes the UK will get a “great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries” because of the president’s affection for the country – this comes after Donald Trump ordered a ninety-day reprieve on the tariffs that he had issued on ‘Liberation Day’. He added that the “reciprocal relationship” between the US and UK gives Britain a more advantageous position than other European countries when it comes to negotiating new trade arrangements, adding: “while we love the Germans, they are heavily dependent on exporting to the United States but are pretty tough on a lot of American businesses that would like to export into Germany.” All You Need Is A Friend!