You Better Get a Move On!                                                                     25 April 2025

As intimated in an earlier blog, Dubai got off to a lightning start in Q1, with transaction recordings totalling above 42.4k, 23% higher compared to Q1 2024, valued at US$ 31.06 billion – an annual 29% surge. Over that period, there was a 65% leap in villa sales, to 10.k, transactions and a 56% hike in value to US$ 14.55 billion. On the other hand, apartment transactions rose 14% to over 32.2k, with their value 12% higher at US$ 16.57 billion. 59% of all transactions were for off-plan sales, with 24.9k deals, up 25% on the year. There has been a recent trend that sees a change in buyer preference, with secondary sales surging to 77%, with off plan dropping by 30%.

With no readily available figures for 2024, the estimate of total housing units as at the end of last year is at 860k, being 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k plus the 47k best guesstimate for last year. (In the four-year period, ending December 2023, the average annual new units were 41k). Property Monitor estimates that over 7.8k residential units were handed over in Q1 and that by the end of this year the number will top 71.3k – and, that being the case, it will be  over 50% more than any other number of annual handovers posted in the past decade; it reckons that in 2026 and 2027, the numbers are expected to be 80.0k and 58.8k, which will be an average annual 70k for the next three years.  In the unlikely annual event of 70k units hitting the market for the next three years, the question is will there be an oversupply? Last year, Dubai’s population grew 5.85% to 3.864 million.  Assuming an annual 6.0% increase, until the end of 2027, the population would have increased by 738k to 4.602 million and the number of residential units to 1.070 million – being 860k, (based on 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k, plus the 47k, the best guesstimate for last year – plus 210k units (2025-2027). Further assumptions are that the ratio between villas/townhouses: villa is 19:81 and that
5.3 persons live in a villa and 4.3 in apartments; this would equate to there being 203k villas, accommodating 1.077 million, and 867k apartments housing 3.728 million – a total of 4.805 million. Per se, this indicates that demand, (4,602 million), is some 200k people, (0.845k villas and 3.61k apartments) lower than supply, (4,805k) and demand should be easily met in the near future. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there is an obvious current inventory shortage. Furthermore, there seems to be a trend that the average number in one residential unit is actually dropping.

Betterhomes posted a 49% rise in transactions and a 36% rise in tenant leads. Rentals for apartments and villas rose for apartments and townhouses, by 14% and 7%, with villa leasing 52% higher on the quarter.. This spike in demand for larger homes aligns with Dubai’s growing family population and evolving lifestyle preferences, as more residents prioritise spacious living environments.

Buyer enquiries across all property types reflected strong market confidence. Overall enquiries rose 14%, year-on-year, and 51%, quarter-on-quarter. Apartments saw a 30% increase in leads compared to Q4 2024 and 12%, year-on-year. Villas maintained high demand, with enquiries up 38%, quarter-on-quarter, and 5%, year-on-year. Townhouses, however, emerged as a standout, with a 64% surge in enquiries, quarter-on-quarter, and a 30% rise year-on-year, highlighting their growing popularity among buyers seeking a balance of space and affordability. Investor interest remains bullish and demand robust, attributable to population growth, (which will reach over four million before the end of the year, with 6% + growth), economic stability, tax advantages, world class amenities and a marked increase in interest for prime and villa properties.

With the aim to make it the fashion hub of the ME and Asia, Azizi Developments has launched ‘Azizi Milan’ on a forty million sq ft of GFA plot, near to SZR. It is estimated that the US$ 20.0 billion residential development will be home to 140k, with 80k apartments, as well as five hundred hotel keys and 2.5 million sq ft of retail. Mirwais Azizi, Chairman of Azizi, noted that

“this new development will become the fashion hub of the Middle East and Asia, where all the brand names and fashion leaders will be present and become an incubator for emerging fashion and local design talent to grow”, and “Azizi Milan is to be the fashion capital of the Middle East with its network of pedestrian-only fashion streets – each dedicated to their own realm of fashion.” Sales started yesterday, 25 April.

Following the massive success of its first project, ‘Lua Residences’, Swank Development has unveiled its highly anticipated residential project “Selora Residences” in Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Meydan. The luxurious development will be an exclusive residential community, comprising thirty standalone villas, between four to six bedrooms; prices start at US$ 2.5 million for the four-bedroom unit and US$ 3.4 million for the five-bedroom one. Construction has yet to start, but completion date is slated for March 2027.

Encompassing an area of seventeen sq km, Dubai Islands has become one of the emirate’s property hotspots. A new Reidin-GCP report indicated that some 7k homes are in construction on the five-island project, with four new launches last month and eight announcements of impending project launches. Now that contracts have been awarded for direct access points between Dubai Islands from Bur Dubai, demand is certain to surge; this will include a 1.43k mt bridge, with four lanes in each direction, with a capacity of 16k vehicles per hour in both directions. (The project also includes a pedestrian and cycling track, connecting both ends of the bridge). The development is currently served by just one entry and exit access point through the Infinity Bridge and Al Khaleej Street. Over the past eighteen months, it is reported that the median sale price of an apartment there has jumped 33% to US$ 654 per sq ft, whilst land prices have surged 125% to US$ 123 per sq ft.

At last week’s International Property Show 2025, the Dubai Land Department signed eleven agreements. Its CEO of the Real Estate Registration Sector, Majid Al Marri, signed six cooperation agreements with the following entities – Bidbayt, (for organising real estate auctions), Auctions, Shory, (for insurance brokerage), Eqarcom Solutions Information Technology, HRE Real Estate Development and the Miami Association of Realtors. He commented that “these agreements reflect DLD’s vision of establishing a fully integrated real estate ecosystem rooted in innovation and driven by strategic partnerships that enhance the sector’s sustainability and global competitiveness.” The CEO of the Real Estate Development Sector, Majida Ali Rashed, signed five additional agreements with real estate registration trustees – Gulf Vision, Bin Shabib, Al Yalayis GT Center, Barnes Middle East and Africa Holding Ltd., and the Innovation Experts Real Estate Institute for real estate training.

Listed as one of the top ten developers in Dubai, Danube Properties unveiled its latest residential project Sparklz by Danube, a three hundred and fifty-eight-unit tower rising up in Al Furjan. It has already delivered three projects, ahead of schedule in H2 2024, and has launched thirty-four projects, successfully delivered eighteen, with another sixteen currently in various stages. 

Located in the heart of Majan Dubailand, Estrella by Nexus, has been launched as a boutique mid-rise development. Nexus Developer, established in 2020, has been known, so far, for its premium villas and townhouses. All the units in Estrella encompass having Italian marble finishes, German-engineered kitchen appliances, US-grade sanitary fittings and smart home automation It also incorporates elevated amenities like a rooftop pool, a fully equipped gym, centrally air-conditioned children’s play areas, and outdoor hangout space

Ahead of next week’s thirty-second edition of the Arabian Travel Market, (28 April to 01 May), Issam Kazim, CEO of the Dubai Corporation for Tourism and Commerce Marketing, said that Dubai tourism had seen a 3% annual growth in Q1. Last year, there was a 9% growth in terms of visitations, along with 18.72 million overnight visitors. He added that “Dubai is proud to continue its long-term strategic collaboration with the internationally renowned Arabian Travel Market (ATM) as its host destination, highlighting our commitment to advancing Dubai’s position as one of the leading global cities for business and leisure, a goal central to the Dubai Economic Agenda, D33”. This year, there will be one hundred and twenty-five stakeholders and over three hundred buyers from thirty-nine countries. 17% of the two thousand, eight hundred exhibiting countries were regional, whilst the 83% balance were from the rest of the world; there has been a 12% annual increase in exhibitor participation at this year’s event, making it the largest edition to date, now spanning fourteen halls.

Dubai was the location selected by PayPal to open its first ever regional hub in the ME. It is one of the biggest global digital commerce platforms in the world with a US$ 61.0 billion market cap; the new hub will be the base for MEA, with eighty countries. Earlier on Wednesday, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum met with Suzan Kereere, the firm’s President, Global Markets. Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler affirmed Dubai’s commitment to supporting its continued growth and success in the region.

 The Mohammed bin Rashid Establishment for Small and Medium Enterprises Development posted impressive 2024 results including a 17.8% rise in the number of launches of new Emirati businesses to 3.46k, bringing the total number of supported SMEs to 19,904 since Dubai SME’s foundation in 2002.  Last year, there was more than an annual doubling of advisory services were offered to 3.08k entrepreneurs, bringing the total number of beneficiaries, over the past  twenty-two years, to 53.21k. These results are in tandem with the ambitious goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to double the size of the city’s economy by 2033 and further consolidate its position as a leading global destination for business and leisure.

According to the latest World Trade Organisation report, 2024 UAE foreign trade surged 49.4% to US$ 1.424 trillion, indicating its growing position as the leading trade hub in the MEA since 2014 and enhancing its position in the top twenty global trade centres for goods and services. There was a 2.9% rise in merchandise trade and 6.8% in services trade last year. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid commented that, “in a world of economic and trade challenges, the UAE has prioritised openness, connectivity, and the free flow of trade, capital, and people, establishing itself as a vital link between East and West and a global economic centre.” He added that “the UAE exported goods worth US$ 599.45 billion in 2024, marking a 6.0% growth over the previous year” and recorded 41% of the total commodity exports in the region. Over the year, the country “exported services worth US$ 177.11 billion in 2024, of which US$ 52.041 billion were digital services, representing 30% of total service exports”. On a global scale, the UAE ranked eleventh in merchandise exports, (US$ 604.90 billion), and thirteenth in service exports, (US$ 176.18 billion, of which US$ 52.04 billion were in digital services), with a trade surplus of US$ 134.14 billion. The UAE achieved merchandise exports of US$ 604.90 billion and services exports of US$ 176.18 billion, including US$ 52.04 billion in digital services.

On the sidelines of Dubai AI week, and in the presence of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, du, in partnership with Microsoft, as its main tenant, is to launch a US$ 545 million hyperscale data centre. The facility willbe built in phases to meet growing demand for cloud services and AI capabilities. Dubai’s Crown Prince noted that “data is the wealth of the future” and highlighted Dubai’s commitment to supporting companies that use technology to benefit society, as well asreinforcing Dubai’s leadership in technology and innovation. Last year, the Dubai Universal Blueprint for Artificial Intelligence was launched, with a triple aim of  growing local AI talent, integrating AI into government services and expanding the city’s data infrastructure.

Forbes has forecast that the country’s fintech market is expected to have a 12.56% compound annual growth rate and reach US$ 3.56 billion in 2025, and US$ 6.43 billion by 2030. Its report outlined the country’s competitive advantages, including its low business startup costs, vis a vis European markets, and the availability of free zones, such as Dubai International Financial Centre and Abu Dhabi Global Market, which help ensure the sustainable delivery of financial services at minimal cost. It also noted that fintech companies in the UAE are benefitting from a supportive and progressive regulatory environment, initiated by government policies and initiatives. Last year, the UAE led the region by raising US$ 1.1 billion across two hundred and seven startups, ahead of Saudi Arabia’s one hundred and eighty-six deals, valued at US$ 700 million.

Pursuant to Article (14) of the Federal Decree Law No. (20) of 2018 on Anti-money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organisations, the Central Bank of the UAE has imposed a financial sanction on an unnamed bank operating in the country for failing to comply with policies and procedures. This was imposed after the findings of an examination conducted by the CBUAE. The central bank is keen to ensure that all banks and their staff, abide by UAE laws, regulations and standards adopted by the CBUAE to safeguard the transparency and integrity of the banking sector and the UAE financial system.

A partnership, between Dubai Taxi Company and Al-Futtaim Electric Mobility, will see an additional two hundred BYD SEAL sedans added to its electric taxi fleet. (In March 2023, BYD announced that it had reached a cooperation with Al-Futtaim, to facilitate the development of green travel in the country). This model is capable of offering a range of six hundred km per charge. 86% of DTC’s fleet is already environment-friendly and is not only ahead of the RTA’s 2027 target of 100% but this latest move will support the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 aspirations and help the DTC transition towards a fully electric fleet by 2040.

A study by Emirates NBD Research posted that Dubai’s March figures showed that its headline CPI inflation dipped by an annual 0.4%, and monthly 0.1%, to 2.8% – helped by softer transport and food costs; this was the lowest annual deflation since October 2024, and the first monthly deflation since July 2024. Inflation over the first quarter averaged 3.0% on the year. With a low oil price, below trend averages, along with a continuation of Brent trading below the US$ 70 level will see the inflation rate dipping in the coming months, which will have a knock-on effect on the likes of pump prices and transport-related components of the ‘inflation basket’. Indeed, in April, retail petrol prices were 18.4% lower than in April 2024. The second integral item in the ‘basket’ is food, 0.3% lower on the year, compared to 0.7% in March 2024, with clothing/footwear trailing 2.7% on the year. The other side of the coin, and the main driver in keeping inflation high, is housing/utilities that account for 40.7% of the basket, and still maintaining its position of having the fastest pricing growth. Last year, it was estimated that rentals for villas/townhouses and apartments rose by 20% and 8%.

Parkin, which operates under a forty-nine-year licence agreement with the RTA, has announced new tariffs at selected locations in the emirate. The largest paid public parking provider, managing over 207k spaces, has posted new tariffs at selected locations – Al Qusais First, Al Karama, Madinat Dubai Al Melaheya and Al Kifaf. The new charges, named W and WP, include a rate of US$ 1.63, (AED 6), per hour, during peak hours.

Emirates Islamic Bank’s Q1 surpassed the AED 1 billion milestone – for the first time – growing 24%, compared to the same period in 2024, helped by the on-going positive business sentiment in the UAE, which drove both funded and non-funded income higher. Total income rose 8% to US$ 395 million, with operating profit up by 5%, while the net profit margin stands at 3.85%. Increases were noted across the board for total assets, customer financing and customer deposits – by 11% to US$ 33.31 billion, by 7% to US$ 20.44 billion, and by 8% to US$ 22.62 billion.

Q1 was another strong period for Emirates NBD, with net profit, before tax, 56% higher at US$ 2.13 billion attributable to a robust lending book, with an improvement in deposit mix and new products resulting in a 11% annual increase in income. Profit also increased by 56%, on the quarter, to US$ 1.69 billion, driven by higher income, lower costs and an impairment credit. Balance sheet items also headed north with deposits up 5% (attributable to a record US$ 7.36 billion increase in low-cost Current and Savings Account balances), loans growing US$ 4.90 billion – with over 50% of the increase sourced from the bank’s growing international network. One highlight was that the bank, for the first time, indicated that its balance sheet surpassed the AED1 trillion, (US$ 272.48), milestone, boosted by impressive loan and deposit growth.

Dubai Islamic Bank posted its Q1 results, with all figures moving higher.  A 14% hike in pre-tax profit, to US$ 572 million, was mainly attributable to quality earning assets growth, as its balance sheet grew by 3%. Operating revenue and net profit after tax, climbed by 5% to US$ 859 million and by 8% to US$ 490 million. From the balance sheet, increases on the year, were noted with net financing and Sukuk – up 4% to US$ 83.65 billion – net financing growth by nearly 5%, (to US$ 60.76 billion), total assets, 3% higher at US$ 96.73, with customer deposits increasing 7% to US$ 72.21 billion.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 21 April, two hundred and forty-six points higher, (5.1%), the previous fortnight, gained sixty-six points (1.3%), to close the trading week on 5,166 points, by Friday 25 April 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.22 closing on US$ 3.53 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.71, US$ 5.30 US$ 2.04 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.49 US$ 2.03 and US$ 0.37. On 25 April, trading was at one hundred and thirty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and nineteen million dollars, compared to one hundred and fifty-three million shares, with a value of US$ seventy-five million dollars, on 18 April.

By Friday, 25 April 2025, Brent, US$ 3.26 higher (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.02 (1.4%) to close on US$ 66.87. Gold, US$ 317 (10.5%) higher the previous fortnight, shed US$ 42 (1.3%) to end the week’s trading at a record US$ 3,299 on 25 April.

Two US mega IT companies received a slap on the wrist by the European regulator, with Apple being fined US$ 500 million and Meta a further US$ 200 million. This, the first such case for the EU’s company watchdog, represents the first sanctions under the Digital Markets Act, which was aimed at curbing the power of big tech companies by allowing smaller rivals into their markets. It is thought that Apple will appeal the case, whilst Meta complained that the decision “is attempting to handicap successful American businesses, while allowing Chinese and European companies to operate under different standards.” Watch this space, because the US President has threatened tariffs against countries that penalise US companies.

Alleging Uber engaged in deceptive billing and cancellation practices, the US Federal Trade Commission has filed a lawsuit against the ride hailing and delivery company. The accusation is that of charging customers for its Uber One subscription service, without getting their consent and making it hard for users to cancel; the service, costing US$ 96, and first introduced in 2021, promises users perks including no-fee delivery and discounts on some rides and orders. The FTC complained that Uber had made suspending subscriptions “extremely difficult” for consumers, who can be subjected to navigating as many as twenty-three screens and taking up to thirty-two actions if they try to cancel.

With commercial plane prices having risen since the pandemic, they are set to climb again, driven by the introduction of trade tariffs; it is estimated that prices have increased by around 30% since 2018. Both Boeing and Airbus have been hit by higher expenses for primary materials such as titanium, components and energy, as well as overall labour cost pressures – only last year, Boeing had to agree to a 38% wage hike, for its Seattle-based machinists to settle a labour dispute, and months earlier, Spirit AeroSystems, a major supplier to both Boeing and Airbus, reached an agreement with similar wage increases. Aviation inflation has undoubtedly risen in recent years with estimates ranging up to 40% – and that was before the Trump 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium.

What is interesting is that Boeing has not updated its price listing since 2023, whilst Airbus has argued that it gave up on its price listing because they “were not closely correlated to the final price, which was based on each specific contract in terms of plane configuration and detail”. Insiders reckon that 50% discounts on these prices are not unusual. Another fact is that both manufacturers have a major backlog of plane orders, (that will take more than a decade to clear). However, that strong demand – in tandem with limited supply – would normally see prices head north but this has not manifested itself to the degree that would be expected. Using details from a recent purchase, of seventy-seven aircraft, by Japan’s ANA, the catalogue prices given to the carrier indicated that a Boeing 787 Dreamliner and a 737 MAX cost US$ 386 million and US$ 159 million – 32.2% and 30.8% higher than their price in 2023; an Airbus A312neo cost about US$ 148 – US$ 14.3 million, (11.3%) higher on its 2018 catalogue price.

This week the two Gallagher brothers were seen together for the first time in sixteen years, ahead of their much-awaited tour. When tickets went on sale last August, it was estimated that fourteen million people joined the rush for 1.4 million tickets for only seventeen shows, with a further twenty-four shows, mainly overseas, added later. The Oasis Live Reunion 25 tour kicks off at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on 04 July. Lloyds Banking Group estimates that Oasis fans lost almost US$ 3 million to various scams for its UK reunion tickets. It is estimated that at least 5k victims have been scammed, with the biggest loss at U$ 2.3k. The warning from the magazine ‘Which?’ is it is safest to assume any Oasis tickets advertised on social media are fake.  

China’s Q1 industrial production, the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, grew strongly by an annual 6.5%, with its contribution to the national GDP reaching 36.3%. Industrial private investment showed double digit growth, driven by rising corporate expectations, improved efficiency and increasing number of industrial enterprises above designated size. Meanwhile, strong growth was also seen in the equipment manufacturing industry, with electronics, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment sectors all driving growth.

In Q1, China’s public budget spending rose 4.2%, year-on-year, to US$ 997.4 billion, mainly attributable to an enhanced spending equipment manufacturing industry, with the electronics, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment sectors playing a prominent role in driving growth. Notable growth was observed in spending on education, social security and employment, as well as energy-saving initiatives and environmental protection during the period. Data showed that China’s public budget revenue decreased by 1.1%, on the year in Q1. Despite the decline, the country’s stamp tax revenue saw a substantial increase of 21.1% year-on-year, reaching US$ 14.73 billion. Revenue from stock trading stamp taxes surged by 60.6% to US$ 5.63 billion, reflecting heightened enthusiasm in Chinese stock trading during the period.

The US and China account for 43% of the global economy and any disruption will have a knock-on impact worldwide. Donald Trump has introduced a number of tariffs on Chinese imports of up to 145%, with Xi Ping retaliating with 125% taxes on US imports; over recent weeks, the trade war has escalated to dangerous levels. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, commented that there is an opportunity for a “big deal” between the two largest global economies and that it would be an “incredible opportunity” to strike an agreement, if China was “serious” on making its economy less dependent on manufacturing exports. He added that “China needs to change. The country knows it needs to change. Everyone knows it needs to change. And we want to help it change because we need rebalancing too”. Even the US president has changed his rhetoric, now expressing his optimism about improving trade relations and that tariffs would “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.

There is no doubt that other Trump-made factors, leading to market turbulence and uncertainty, could play a major role whether the RBA cuts rates in May, whilst the latest employment figures, showing weak growth over recent months, could make their decision, to move on rates, easier.  It would be no surprise to see a bigger rate cut in May – possibly at 0.40% – and another 0.25% reduction before the end of the Australian fiscal year in June.

March labour figures saw Australia’s unemployment rate nudge 0.1% higher to 4.1%, as 32k found employment, (after February posted a 57k decline), whilst the pool of unemployed people increased by 3k. In comparative 2024 data, the labour market regularly grew by 100k on the quarter but in Q1 2025, the figure was a miserly 6.5k. What has happened is that the participation rates in Q1 were a record-high 67.2%, 66.7% and 66.8% in March.  If the January rate had remained flat into March, Australia’s unemployment rate would have jumped to 4.7%. Despite the growth in employment, it is reported that for second month in a row, March hours worked decreased by 0.3%; bad weather in the month, including ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and other major weather events in New South Wales and Queensland, were seen as main drivers.  It seems that the country’s job market continues to soften, with far fewer jobs being added, compared to a year ago.

Records were broken after the OECD reported that Q4 2024 employment in the EU reached its highest level on record, at 70.9%, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since 2000. Eight member states of the twenty-four-nation bloc also posted all-time high employment rates which ranged from 62.2% in Italy, to 82.3% in the Netherlands. Of the continent’s five largest economies, Germany, UK, France, Spain and Italy, employment rates were at 77.6%, 75.0%, 68.9%, (slightly below the averages for both the EU and the OECD), 66.3% and 62.2%; these final two countries joined Greece and Türkiye as the four bottom-performing countries. The top two countries listed above, Germany and the UK, with unemployment rates of, 3.5% and 4.4%, were the best performing. Of the five largest economies, these two were the standout leaders. Unemployment ranged from 2.6% in Poland to 10.4% in Spain, followed by Finland (9.2%) and Sweden (8.9%) as the three countries with the highest unemployment rates, which had declined to 5.7% – its lowest level in twenty-five years.

April’s purchasing managers’ index, slumping 2.3, from 51.5, (reflecting expansion), to 48.2, (into contraction territory), indicates that the UK’s services and manufacturing sector is struggling to keep “their heads above water”, not helped by the now infamous October budget that has added US$ 33.25 billion of extra employment costs. To exacerbate the problem, Donald Trump has stepped in with his tariffs that could deal a hammer blow to UK exports, at a time when export orders fell at the fastest pace since mid-2020, just as when the pandemic had taken hold. The figures indicate that the UK economy is declining by 0.3% every quarter. Business optimism also slid to a thirty-month low.

This week, a senior Nissan boss told a group of MPs that the UK is “not a competitive place to be building cars”, adding that its Sunderland factory “pays more for its electricity than any other Nissan plant in the world”. He added, “it is energy costs – it is the cost of everything involved in the cost of labour, [and] training. It is the supplier base, or lack of – all sorts of different issues. Ultimately, the UK is not a competitive place to be building cars today.” Maybe the Chancellor should spend more time in her home country, solving the domestic economic problems, some of which have been of her own making.

At the end of the UK fiscal year, 31 March, the UK government borrowed US$ 20.70 billion. This was more than forecast, highlighting contributions from inflation-related costs, including pay awards, and by US$ 21.79 billion of borrowing in March – the third-highest March borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. The Office for National Statistics reported that borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – came in at US$ 201.83 billion, noting that this represented 5.3% of GDP – 0.5% more than a year earlier. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner noted that by 31 March 2025, public service debt remained close to the annual value of the output of the economy, (95.8% of GDP), at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

In its latest forecasting, the IMF has noted that the UK economy will be among the hardest hit by the global trade war, as it slashed the country’s growth, and as inflation is set to climb, it slashed its UK growth forecast by a third to 1.1% this year, down 0.5% from its January prediction, crawling 0.3% higher to 1.4% in 2025. The IMF also cited the rise in government borrowing costs as another cause of the UK’s poor performance which has been partly due to growing unease among investors over the fate of the US economy. Because of her self-imposed fiscal rules, the Chancellor has to raise taxes and/or cut public spending to meet them – another cause of weak economic growth. Furthermore, the IMF pointed to other problems in the domestic economy mainly “weaker private consumption amid higher inflation as a result of regulated prices and energy costs”. The IMF also warned that the UK is heading to one of the largest upticks in inflation, rising 0.7% to 3.1% next year, because of utility bill increases that took effect earlier in the month. This will also concern the BoE with what to do with interest rates, in an environment of weak growth and higher inflation, and their long standing 2.0% target. However, it must be remembered that the IMF is not known for its accurate forecasting.

Ever since the now infamous October budget, many business groups and owners have complained that Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise the minimum wage and increase the employers’ national insurance contribution by 1.2% to 15.0%, have impacted badly on both employment and investment. To exacerbate the problem, latest figures have seen inflation nudging higher towards 3.0%, along with rising energy, water and council fees and now the impact of the US trade war. The GfK consumer confidence barometer fell four points over the month to minus 23 – its lowest level since November 2023 – and down from minus 19 in the previous month. Analysts had expected a reading of minus 21. Furthermore, the latest S&P PMI posted that exports had fallen at their fastest pace since early 2020. Even the IMF has come out and said many of the UK’s economic problems are homegrown, adding that higher inflation because of rising energy bills etc was causing more damage to the UK economy than tariffs. The world body also warned that rising government borrowing costs were weighing on growth and that because of these problems investors had become wary in ploughing money into the UK because of the double whammy – its dismal growth and inflation outlook. A senior Nissan boss has warned that the UK is “not a competitive place to be building cars”. Nissan’s Alan Johnson told MPs that the Sunderland factory “pays more for its electricity than any other Nissan plant in the world”. He added, “It is energy costs – it is the cost of everything involved in the cost of labour, [and] training. It is the supplier base, or lack of – all sorts of different issues. Ultimately, the UK is not a competitive place to be building cars today.” The UK electorate need more than words from the Labour government who to date have scored a few own goals It is about time that the Starmer administration were told – You Better Get A Move On!