Beer Drinking Weather!                                                                      23 May 2025

Savills’ latest Q1 report indicates that new residential developments are being pushed to the emirate’s urban outskirts because of land saturation and limited affordability in Dubai’s ‘traditional’ locations, such as Business Bay, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina. It estimates that five locations – Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley and Damac Lagoons – accounted for 55% of total transaction volumes and 56% of all newly launched residential units. Interestingly, the report noted that, in Q1, 8k units were delivered with a further 32k expected by the end of 2025 – this is in contrast to numbers as high as 72k being bandied around from other sources. It expects a “healthy stream of completions” through to 2028, as the balance between supply and demand evolves.

A fortnight ago, this blog in its ‘Empty Promises’ edition noted:

‘Assuming a 6% population growth, there will be 4.878 million residing in the emirate by the end of 2028, and assuming that the number of units at the end of 2024 was at 860k, there would be 1.11 million units, (860k + 240k), in 2028, split between 900k apartments, (housing 3.870 million), and 210k villas, (housing 1.113 million); this shows that 4.983 million will be housed – a gap of only 105k. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there still will be an inventory shortage in four years’ time. However, it is all but inevitable that this almost five-year bull run will eventually come to a soft landing, as some major global economic event(s) hit(s) consumer/investor confidence’.

The Savills report found that Dubai recorded a 23% annual increase in Q1 transaction volumes, dominated by apartments accounting for 76% of all transactions, while villa/townhouse transactions rose from 18% to 24%. Off plan sales accounted for 69% of all Q1 deals, with the ready market, comprising transactions in completed and handed-over projects, accounting for 13k transactions, as apartments contributed 81% of the total. Of the 30k units launched, 79% were apartments and the balance taken up by villas/townhouses. There seems to have been a trend of smaller unit sizes being introduced to reflect the 10% hike in some building materials. 8% of the total Q1 activity was seen in the US$ 1.36 million (AED 5 million) segment. There was a 31% surge to 1.3k units in the US$ 2.72 million plus (AED 10 million) sector, with villas accounting for 73% of the market share. Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills, noted that “villas in coveted locations, space and privacy are the preferred choice, but supply remains restricted for the time being.”

In a bid to double Dubai’s property technology market to over US$ 1.23 billion in five years, the emirate is launching a PropTech Hub to drive innovation in the real estate sector. This initiative is in alignment with both the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 and the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, whose twin aims are to position the city among the world’s top three economic destinations. Over the next five years, the hub is expected to attract over US$ 272 million in investments, support more than two hundred PropTech companies, and introduce twenty investment funds focused on real estate innovation. It will also serve as a launchpad for entrepreneurs and investors, creating new opportunities in smart property solutions.

As it continues to expand global logistics network, DP World announced that it will invest US$ 2.5 billion this year in five major infrastructure projects to expand its global logistics network. The logistics operator posted that these were in response to rising demand for resilient, integrated supply chain solutions – and to consolidate its leading position as a key enabler of global trade. Its chairman, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem noted that “global trade is evolving fast, and we are investing boldly to shape its future. Despite short-term uncertainty, this US$ 2.5 billion commitment reflects our confidence in long-term trade growth and our determination to build the infrastructure needed to keep the world connected”. The five projects on four continents are:

• Tuna Tekra in Gujarat – a new US$ 510 million terminal, featuring a 1.1 km berth and an annual capacity of 2.19 million TEUs
• Banana in the Democratic Republic of Congo – a new 450k TEU facility on the Atlantic Ocean, attracting more direct calls from larger vessels from Asia and Europe
• Ndayane Port in Senegal – an initial US$ 830 million investment which will support the country’s development for the rest of the century
• Port of Posorja in Ecuador – a US$ 140 million berth expansion that will expand the dock to a total of 700 mt, enabling it to accommodate two post-Panamax vessels simultaneously
• London Gateway logistics hub – a US$ 1.0 billion investment to build two new shipping berths and a second rail terminal, whilst creating four hundred new jobs and supporting the UK’s growing role as a trade gateway

Some parents, and probably many teachers, will be happy to hear that Dubai’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority will conduct no inspections during the 2025-26 academic year. The KHDA noted that “the decision – part of an evolving approach to supporting quality education in the emirate – applies to all private schools except for those in their third year of operation, that will be subject to a full inspection”, and that “(we) will continue to monitor school performance through targeted visits focused on specific areas related to educational quality and ongoing development. These visits will be informed by feedback from the school community and aligned with the Education 33 strategy’s priorities”.

In April, Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed 0.5% on the month to 2.3% – its slowest pace of annual growth in almost two years. The main drivers behind this change include a 7.6% decline in transport prices, helped by a marked fall in petrol prices, which offset continued upward pressure from housing costs; with housing accounting for about 40% of the “CPI basket”, it did dip 0.2% on the month, to a seven month low in April, as rent increase slowed to a still high 9.8% – the slowest pace since December 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% – 0.4% higher on the month when March had posted a 0.1% decline. So far in 2025, average annual inflation stands at 2.8%, and as oil prices seem to be stubbornly sticking around the US$ 60 – US$ 65 mark, the inflation rate may continue to hover in the coming months around the 2.5% level. There were slight annual declines in education and healthcare – the former 0.3% lower at 2.5%, and the latter down 0.1% to 3.0%. Other components of the CPI basket – food/beverages, and clothing/footwear, were 0.2% and 2.8% lower, whilst restaurants/accommodation and household furnishings rose by 0.6% and 0.5%.

According to Kamco’s latest report, the UAE is the only GCC member projected to achieve a balanced budget, as other member countries face fiscal challenges in 2025 due to oil production cuts. There is no doubt that much of this is down to proactive government measures, its fiscal discipline and wise leadership. Furthermore, the emirate’s financial hub status and investments in innovation, continue to attract global capital, cushioning it against oil revenue fluctuations. According to the UAE central bank, non-oil sectors, including tourism, finance, and technology, contributed 73% to the country’s GDP in 2024. The UAE’s 2025 federal budget, approved, at US$ 19.5 billion, for both expenditure and revenue, reflects an 11.6% increase in spending and an 8.8% rise in revenue compared to 2024.The UAE’s ability to breakeven in 2025, while other GCC nations face deficits, speaks for itself. It estimates that the 2025 aggregate budgeted expenditure for the six-nation bloc will be at US$ 545.3 billion – 1.7% lower on the year – with budgeted revenues, set to decline 3.1% to US$ 488.4 billion, down to oil output cuts by GCC OPEC members. The end result sees a 12.0% hike in the fiscal deficit to US$ 56.9 billion.

Following a directive from The Executive Council of Dubai an agreement, between the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), Dubai Municipality, and Wasl Group, has been signed. It is in line with the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, to allocate land for affordable housing projects, and aims to develop vibrant, healthy communities, support urban centres that drive key economic sectors, diversify employment opportunities and address the housing and service needs of residents across income levels. It will be strategically placed ensuring connectivity to the city centre, offering access to essential services, and aligning with the ‘20-Minute City’ concept.

The Parkin Company has initiated monthly subscription services for designated areas across the city including:

                                                US$         I mth                   3 mth                        6 mth                 I yr

Dubai Hills, (Zone 631G)                     136                        381                            681                1,226     

Silicon Oasis, (Limited)                                                       272                            409                   681  

Silicon Oasis (H)                                                                   381                            681               1,226

Wasl Communities (W/WP)              82                               218                            436                   763

Roadside/plot parking                        136                            381                            681                1,226

Parking is permitted for a maximum of four consecutive hours in roadside parking, (zones B & D), and twenty-four consecutive hours in plots parking (zones A & C).

Last month, the company added new variable parking tariffs across the emirate, by which premium parking was raised to US$ 1.63 per hour during peak time, (08.00 – 10.00 and 16.00 – 20.00), across all zones, (A, B, C and D); weekends and public holidays were excluded. Zones, signed AP, BP, CP and DP, are premium parking areas with different tariffs and include those spaces that have easy access to public transport, such as areas within 500 mt of a metro station, areas with high parking occupancy during peak periods, and areas with density and congestion, such as markets and commercial activity zones.

In his capacity as Chairman of the Financial Audit Authority, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, has issued a new decision, relating to whistleblowing. It confirms that public employees in Dubai, who report financial or administrative violations, will be legally protected. Decision No. 2 of 2025 ensures whistleblowers can report wrongdoing or cooperate with the Financial Audit Authority without fear of retaliation. It also safeguards their employment and guarantees confidentiality throughout the investigation process.

An unnamed exchange house was fined over US$ 54 million for non-compliance with the provisions of Article 137 of the Decretal Federal Law No 14 of 2018 regarding the Central Bank and Organization of Financial Institutions and Activities. The Central Bank of the UAE levied the penalty after an investigation found that significant failures in the exchange house’s anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism and illegal organisations framework. Its branch manager was also fined US$ 136k and banned from holding any position, within any licensed financial institutions in the UAE.

Effective immediately, the federal Ministry of Finance has announced a significant expansion of its corporate tax exemption policy that sees foreign entities, that are wholly owned by certain exempted entities, (such as UAE government bodies, government-controlled entities, qualifying investment funds, and public pension or social security funds), are now eligible for corporate tax exemption This is conditional to specific conditions.

There are local reports that, like Elvis, Gulf First Commercial Brokers and Sigma-One Capital ‘have left the building’ in Business Bay. Only last month, over forty employees were working on the third floor Capital Golden Tower, but they have left and so has millions of dollars of scammed investors’ money. It seems that the fraudsters used ‘traditional’ methods to obtain the hard-earned monies of hundreds of investors. The two entities acted as one with GFCB aggressively attracting money, on the pretence of ‘guaranteed safe returns’, and pushed clients toward Sigma-One Capital, an unregulated online platform. Call centres would initiate contact, secure first deposits, then hand targets to relationship managers. It was found that Sigma-One Capital operated, without DFSA or SCA authorisation, falsely claimed that it was registered in St Lucia and had a Bur Dubai office in Musalla Tower, but no such office exists. Because this particular fraud had similarities with an incident in March when investors lost millions to dubious platforms like DuttFx and EVM Prime— all promoted through cold calls promising “secure trading environments” – there is the possibility of the same gang leading this latest operation. Victims typically maxed out credit cards or took loans, to make deposits only to discover the companies’ Dubai offices were fictional. Investors suspect these operations belong to the same syndicate.

Ajman Bank has issued its first Sukuk on Nasdaq Dubai that brings the bourse’s total value of bourse’s listed Sukuks to US$ 96.9 billion, as well as becoming the fifty-first regional/international bank to be listed on the bourse, with a segment total value of US$ 30.6 billion. The overall value of debt instruments on the exchange now exceeds US$ 139 billion, enhancing its position in the top realms of global exchanges for Islamic fixed income products. With this listing, the total value of Sukuk listed on Nasdaq Dubai has reached US$ 96.9 billion, while the overall value of debt instruments on the exchange now exceeds US$ 139 billion. Ajman Bank’s issue, which was 5.4 times over-subscribed, was a five-year US$ 500 million Senior Sukuk.

Although Dubai Residential REIT’s offer price remains between US$ 0.292 to US$ 0.300, the issue size was amended 20% higher to 1.950 billion units, equating to 15.0% of Dubai Residential REIT’s issued unit capital. All this indicates that the new issue will bring in US$ 568 million to US$ 584 million, valuing the company at just under US$3.9 billion. The IPO subscription period ended on Tuesday, 20 May. It has been said that this offering, the first for the DFM this year, generated ‘interest over and beyond what even the most optimistic had been expecting’, being oversubscribed more than twenty-six times, attracting over US$ 15.26 billion in gross demand from local, regional and international investors.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 19 May, six hundred and one points higher, (9.4%), on the previous six weeks, gained nine points (0.1%), to close the trading week on 5,464 points, by Friday 23 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.01 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.05, closing on US$ 3.69 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75 US$ 6.16 US$ 2.15 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.73, US$ 6.27, US$ 2.17 and US$ 0.41. On 23 May, trading was at one hundred and  twenty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-seven million dollars, compared to two hundred and seventy-one million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred million dollars, on 16 May 2025.

By Friday, 23 May 2025, Brent, US$ 4.09 higher (4.2%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 0.69 (1.5%) to close on US$ 64.64. Gold, US$ 154 (4.6%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 174 (5.5%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,362 on 23 May.

Coinbase estimates that the recent cyber-attack may cost one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency firms, up to US$ 400 million, with hackers being able to access customer information, by making payments to the firm’s contractors and employees. It confirmed that access was limited to “less than 1%” of its customer data. The scammers posted a ransom of US$ 20 million but Coinbase refused to pay and instead promised to pay back every person who got scammed; it also established “a US$ 20 million reward fund for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the criminals responsible for this attack.” On news of the firm’s action, its share price fell by 4.1%. This comes at a time when research firm Chainanalysis estimated that funds stolen from crypto businesses totalled US$ 2.2 billion last year.

Last Friday, Tesco customers were unable to access its app and website, with the retailer sending a message – “we’re sorry, but something went wrong. We have been notified about this issue. Please try and sign in again later. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.” This was followed by a message saying, “we have fixed a software issue that temporarily impacted customers using our website and app this afternoon. We’re sorry for the inconvenience”. Meanwhile, the Co-op indicated that, following a 30 April cyber-attack, (which forced the retailer to take key systems offline), that from last weekend food stocks would start to recover after two weeks of dwindling stock on its shops’ shelves. Many analysts have opined that the Co-op fell victim to the same hackers – thought to be a group known as Scattered Spider – that had targeted Marks & Spencer and Harrods last month.   Those ‘hacked retailers’ will see their profits dented because of lost sales, cost of clearing up the attacks and new IT software to make their systems safer. Indeed, M&S revealed it was facing a US$ 406 million hit to profits following last month’s ransomware attack.

In another blow to the London Stock Exchange, Revolut, the UK’s most valuable financial technology company, has decided that Paris is a better option for its western Europe headquarters. The UK online bank plans to invest more than US$ 1.13 billion in France, over the next three years, creating two hundred new jobs and marking the “largest investment in the French financial sector in a decade”. Revolut said it had chosen Paris due to its “dynamic banking ecosystem, robust regulatory environment, and strategic position as a financial hub”. Although the US$ 45 billion fintech has a global HQ in Canary Wharf, and intends to stay there, this is still going to impact London’s dominance as a finance and technology hub.

There are reports from the UK that Pop Mart has withdrawn Labubu dolls, (quirky monsters character created by Hong Kong-born artist Kasing Lung), from all UK stores, following reports of customers fighting over them; the manufacturer has paused selling them in all sixteen of its shops next month to “prevent any potential safety issues”. The soft toys became a TikTok trend after being worn by celebrities like Rihanna and Dua Lipa. Whether Pop Mart has done this for safety reasons or to boost further demand remains to be seen. In the UK, prices can range from US$ 18 to US$ 85, with rare editions going for hundreds of dollars on resale sites such as Vinted and eBay. To Dubai-based expats the advice is to buy now for Christmas.

Over the past twelve months, the share value of Ozempic has halved, as intensifying competition in the obesity drug market cut into the Danish company’s market share. As a result, its CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, will step down but will remain in position until a replacement has been found; he had been the CEO since 2017. The company noted that “the changes are made in light of the recent market challenges Novo Nordisk has been facing, and the development of the company’s share price since mid-2024”. Novo Nordisk became a first mover in the obesity and diabetes drug market, with sales of its semaglutide GLP-1 injections, (sold as Ozempic when prescribed to treat diabetes and Wegovy to manage weight loss), skyrocketing following their release. In recent times, it had lost its premier position in the weight-loss market to Zepbound, an injection manufactured by rival firm Eli Lilly. Weeks ago, it slashed its full-year sales growth forecast, due to competition from copycat versions of semaglutide made in US pharmacies – a practice known as compounding. The pharmacies had been allowed to make their own version of Ozempic due to a shortage of the drug — but US regulators ruled in February that the shortage had ended, and pharmacies were to discontinue making compounded versions.

Even though Donald Trump has suspended plans for more aggressive levies, Walmart has indicated that it will have to raise prices in the US, as early as this month, because costs have already moved higher because of the new tariffs on imports – at 10% for most of the world, except for China’s 30% levy. More than 66% of what the world’s largest retailer sells in the US is made, assembled or grown in the country. However, it pointed out that China is the dominant supplier in key categories, such as toys and electronics.  Walmart commented that it was in a strong position to rapidly adjust what they are buying if shoppers start to baulk at higher prices. However, Walmart is still confident that they are in a position to meet their original target of increasing profits faster than sales – a sign that it is expected to be able to pass on higher costs to the consumer, without taking a major hit. In the quarter ending 30 April, revenue rose 2.5% on the year to US$ 165.6 billion, but profits dipped 12% to US$ 4.4 billion.

Anyone who has invested in Bitcoin has been on a very bumpy road and 2025 has been no exception where it started the new year trading at US$ 92,382 and by 17 January had broken through the six-digit level, topping US$ 101,413; the main driver behind this 9.7% surge in eighteen days was Donald Trump and that he would introduce a slew of pro-crypto policies. However, there was some disappointment that the president did not follow through with many policies that some had expected him to do, including confirming that the government would not be buying additional coins for its “strategic reserve”, using taxpayers’ money. Following his now infamous Liberation Day tariffs, in early April, Bitcoin dived reaching US$ 75,004 on 09 April. Late afternoon yesterday, it was trading at US$ 111.892 – 49.2% higher than posted on 09 April and up 10.3%, YTD.

Late last year, Macquarie was hit by a US$ 3.21 million fine for repeatedly breaching its reporting obligations, for over a decade, and ignoring suspicious trades in the electricity futures market.  The Australian Securities and Investment Commission has now admonished the Australian multinational investment banking and financial services group again for their lax approach to complying with reporting regulations. Having demanded an urgent fix to the ongoing issues, it has now placed conditions on Macquarie’s financial services licence. Another problem has come to the surface which has seen the corporate watchdog launch a legal action in the NSW Supreme Court. This time, it involves an accusation that Macquarie breached its obligations regarding the reporting of up to 1.5 billion short selling contracts, dating back fourteen years; this is the fourth time, in a year, that ASIC has taken action. It does seem to a neutral observer that Macquarie is taking the ‘p…’ out of the authorities, and must think it is above the law, with its arrogant approach seemingly putting profit above rules and regulations. Record keeping, complying with regulations and lax reporting standards are issues where Macquarie has fallen short on multiple occasions on a range of issues that date back to at least 2008. To date, a finger should be pointed at ASIC for its apparent weak approach to allowing such behaviour to continue. 

Last year, there were several changes at the top level, with Greg Yanco stepping down in April and Tim Mullaly, who led the financial services enforcement team for eleven years, in July. Scott Gregson became its chief executive two months ago. Last October, Peter Soros and Chris Savundra were appointed as executive director regulation and supervision and as executive director enforcement and compliance. Perhaps such appointments have finally given the watchdog some teeth and has rejuvenated the ASIC to be in a position to rectify Macquarie’s impervious attitude to prior actions.

December 2009 saw the financial world still reeling from the impact of the GFC, with Macquarie’s collapse only being averted by the government guaranteeing its borrowings; to cap it all, the bank had lobbied the federal government to ban short selling of financial institutions. Ironically, the allegations in the NSW Supreme Court state “ASIC alleges that between 11 December 2009 and 14 February 2024, Macquarie failed to correctly report the volume of short sales by at least seventy-three million. ASIC estimates that this could be between two hundred and ninety-eight million and 1.5 billion short sales.” It is difficult to consider that Macquarie is a lone wolf in the industry, and it could only be a matter of time before other financial institutions are drawn into this economic mêlée.

Taku Eto’s joke that, as Japan’s farm minister he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him “plenty” of it as gifts, cost him his job and sent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government into a spin. Japan is facing a major cost of living crisis, as the price of rice has doubled over the past twelve months. Until 1995, the government controlled the amount of rice farmers produced by working closely with agricultural cooperatives, and since then the agriculture ministry has continued to publish demand estimates, so farmers can avoid producing a glut of rice. However, it seems that something went wrong in 2023 and 2024 when the estimated demand of 6.8 million tonnes was 3.5% off the actual 7.05 million tonnes demand rising because of more tourists visiting Japan and a rise in people eating out after the pandemic. The problem was exacerbated as actual production was even lower than the estimate: 6.61 million tonnes. With Japan holding a key national election this summer, Shigeru Ishiba has to do something to placate both parties – the consumer and the farmer.

The Council of the EU and the European Parliament have agreed to permit an agreement that allows member states to gradually introduce the Entry/Exit digital border management system (EES) over a period of six months. Member states will be able to roll out the new EES, which digitally record entries and exits, data from the passport, fingerprints, and facial images of non-EU nationals travelling for short stays in an EU member state.  It should also result in a marked reduction of identity fraud and overstay.

Both the British Medical Association (BMA) and National Education Union (NEU) have threatened further strike action, following the government announcing 4.0% pay rises, after accepting recommendations from independent review bodies; the government has earlier budgeted for 2.8%. Both unions claim that the increases do not account for historical pay freezes.There was a 5.4% rise granted to junior doctors, whilst other NHS workers in England, including nurses, midwives, and physiotherapists, saw a 3.6% hike. Meanwhile, senior civil servants, prison officers and military personnel received rises of 3.25%, 4.0% and 4.5% respectively.

Another blow for the UK economy sees its inflation rate jumping 0.9% to 3.5%, its highest rate for more than a year, attributable to an April rise in the cost of household bills. According to the ONS the largest upward contributors to the rise were from “housing and household services, transport, and recreation and culture”. Earlier in the year the BoE’s forecast was that inflation would spike at 3.7% in Q3 before dropping back to its 2.0% target.

Further bad news for the economy came during the week, with the latest May PMI Index showing that although economic output rose 0.9 to 49.4, it still remains in negative territory for the second month in a row; this raised fears that the strong start to the year could be wiped out in Q2. (The 50 mark is the threshold between contraction and expansion). This is the second-lowest reading in seventeen months perhaps showing that business confidence continues to wane, exacerbated by higher payroll taxes and the threat of resurgent inflation. To make her Thursday worse, the Chancellor was hit with news that Office for National Statistics figures showed yet another spike in public borrowing in April at US$ 27.11 billion, 12.8% higher than expected, whilst posting the fourth highest April total on record; this was despite the pot being boosted by an extra US$ 2.28 billion from employers’ national insurance contributions which kicked in on 06 April. The Chancellor must be living on the edge, with slowing growth and persistent sticky inflation.

On Wednesday, there were signs that Keir Starmer may have performed a U-Turn on his winter fuel allowance debacle, as he responded to a question that he would “look at” his cuts, noting that “we had to stabilise the economy with tough decisions but the right decisions”. It does seem strange that he thinks he may have made the right decisions so that he can now start reversing Rachel Reeves’ budgetary move to  strip money from the UK pensioners –  the sector of the economy that can least afford it.

The end of the week saw more positive news for the Starmer administration with April retail sales rising by a better than expected 1.2%, helped by the warm weather driving food/drink sales higher, after only rising by 0.1% in March. The three-monthly growth was the largest in nearly four years. Furthermore, the GfK consumer confidence barometer also headed north to minus 20, as previous concerns about a possible global slowdown abated with consumers becoming more positive about their financial wellbeing. Further news saw that energy prices will fall in Q2, for the first time in twelve months, as Ofgem dropped their prices by an average 7.0%.

Over the past two weeks the UK has signed significant trade deals with both the US and India and on Monday Kier Starmer signed off on a “win-win” trade agreement with the EU. To a neutral observer, this seems to have been big on headlines but short on detail. Reports indicate that the UK will not be allowed to attend EC meetings and will continue to be treated as a non-member state but will be able to be “involved at an early stage” in talks on new food directives – a draw at best. Even worse was the caving in on the country’s fishing industry, giving the EU a further twelve years, to 2037, of access to UK waters – a drubbing. Even last Friday, the EC had agreed to a draft deal limiting fishing rights to four years but this was not agreed by the twenty-seven ambassadors meeting last Sunday. But how four became twelve speaks highly of Starmer’s negotiating skills.

A possible victory for Starmer could the lifting of bureaucratic and time-consuming veterinary checks that have seen UK lorries often delayed at European ports – the trade-off being that the UK has to adhere to EU standards. Although not strictly trade-related, two other measures were the “youth experience scheme” and access to e-gates. The former did not appear to give too much away so that the likes of maximum age limit, whether there would be a cap on numbers, and the length of stay are unknown.  Even though UK travellers could see shorter queues at European entry ports, with access to e-gates, there is no guarantee of priority access and even worse have only been promised “potential use of e-gates where appropriate”. The UK has been lumbered with an unspecified “appropriate financial contribution” for being able to be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

 At the heart of the reset is a defence and security pact that will let Britain be part of any joint procurement, but further agreement will be needed for British companies, including BAE, Rolls Royce and Babcock, to take part in a US$ 167 billion programme to rearm Europe. Maybe Starmer thinks he is a top negotiator but forgets he comes to the table with no winning  cards in his hand, and the old hands in the EU know that the UK leader is trying to “cherry pick”  EU benefits

Concerned over the government’s inability to pay back its debt, ratings agency Moody’s has lowered the US rating from ‘AAA’ to ‘Aa1’ – its last perfect credit rating which had been the case since 1917; it noted that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs. Fitch Ratings downgraded the US in 2023, and S&P Global Ratings did so in 2011. In the past, credit ratings have been slow to adjust and it must be remembered that the three leading agencies gave their highest ratings to over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes through 2007. Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to “junk” status by 2010,and the write-downs and losses came to over half a trillion dollars. The Trump administration has some justification to take a swipe by commenting that “if Moody’s had any credibility, they would not have stayed silent as the fiscal disaster of the past four years unfolded.” However, the agency maintained that the US “retains exceptional credit strengths such as size, resilience and dynamism and the continued role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency”. More worryingly for the US economy is that it expects federal debt to increase to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 2024’s 98%, that Trump’s spending bill failed to pass the House Budget Committee, (with some Republicans voting against it) and that Q1 growth contracted 0.3%, compared to an impressive 2.4% expansion in Q4.

A recent study in the UK indicates that the cheapest pint of beer, at US$ 5.79 is found in the NE  and in Wales – US$ 5.97 and the most expensive in London, at US$ 7.36 followed by US$ 6.26 in SE England and US$ 6.17 in E England. In five other areas – Scotland, Yorkshire & Humber, E Midlands, W Midlands and the NW, the price came in on US$ 5.98. It would be interesting to see how these prices compare with other global hotspots. Beer Drinking Weather!