Don’t Give Up On Me Now!                                           11 July 2025

Espace posted that a weakening greenback, (and hence dirham), versus the sterling, euro and Indian rupee, along with a surge in the migration of wealthy individuals, have resulted in an increased interest in luxury properties – those valued at over US$ 5.45 million; Russians, British, Indians, and other European millionaires lead the pack. The broker estimated that transaction numbers have surged by an annual 110% on the year – and by 70% compared to H2 2024. Its MD, John Lyons, commented that “recent changes to the UK’s non-dom status and broader fiscal shifts across Europe have prompted HNWIs to seek more tax-efficient jurisdictions. Dubai not only offers financial advantages –  like zero income tax – but also excels in safety, global connectivity, and world-class infrastructure and healthcare”. Indeed, Dubai’s visionary Ruler, HH Sheikh Mohammed, is on record that his government’s strategy is to make the emirate the best place in the world in which to live, work and invest. Henley & Partners estimates that the country will welcome 9.8k HNWIs this year alone – with projections showing that the country will attract more than US$ 63.0 billion in wealth through inbound millionaire migration.

Dubai’s ultra luxury property segment has witnessed a new milestone with a seven-bedroom mansion in Dubai Hills being sold, after being listed for US$ 41 million. It boasts open-plan living spaces, dual gourmet kitchens, en-suite bedrooms with private terraces, a rooftop lounge offering 360-degree panoramic views, and a California-inspired garden, complete with a cabana-lined pool, a firepit lounge, and an outdoor dining space. Sales like this confirms that the location has joined the ‘Dubai’s ultra property segment club’. According to Dubai Sotheby’s International Realty, who represented both the buyer and seller in this transaction, the villa segment in Dubai Hills Estate saw remarkable growth in the first five months of 2025, with transaction volumes increasing by 12.2% and prices rising by 14.1%. Espace indicated that among Dubai’s luxury communities, Emirates Hills recorded the highest transaction value at US$ 116 million, followed by Jumeirah Bay Island (US$ 90 million), Dubai Hills Estate (41 million), Palm Jumeirah – The Fronds (US$ 35 million), and Al Barari (US$ 33 million).

According to data shared by Bayut and dubizzle, H1 saw villa prices rise by over 10%, with Dubailand posting hikes of 10.4% and the likes of Dubai South, Damac Hills 2, Dubai Sports City and Dubai Silicon Oasis benefitting from increased demand for larger, more affordable homes. In the affordable apartment category, data showed prices rising by up to 7% across the board, while villas in the same bracket saw growth of up to 11%. Haider Ali Khan, CEO of Bayut and dubizzle, commented that “we’re seeing a really interesting shift in Dubai’s property market this year. Demand remains strong, but price movements are becoming more measured, a positive indicator of long-term stability”. Mid-tier apartment prices increased by up to 3%, and villas in this range appreciated by 6% to 10%. The leading performer in this sector remained Jumeirah Village Circle, along with Business Bay, Al Furjan, and Arabian Ranches 3. In the luxury category, villa prices grew between 2% to 8%, with luxury apartment prices witnessing increases of up to 4%. Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Arabian Ranches, and Damac Hills were the top performing locations. In the high-end category, buyers continued to show interest in waterfront and gated luxury districts in communities like District 11, MBR City for villa buyers, while dubizzle reported strong demand in Sobha Hartland, Dubai Harbour, Al Wasl, and Dubai Hills Estate.

STAMN Real Estate Development has announced the launch of Nautis Residences – a sixty-three-unit development, featuring a range of one-to-four-bedroom apartments. Located on Dubai Islands, and designed by Horizon, Nautis will have a range of amenities, including an elegant infinity pool and sundeck, trendy gym, yoga studio, cosy reading garden, and social barbecue facilities, along with a separate children’s play zone and kids’ pool to appeal to family buyers.  With a 40/60 payment plan available, and completion by Q4 2027, prices range from US$ 474k to over US$ 1.80 million, equating to an average US$ 1,583 per sq ft. (A master development designed by Nakheel, Dubai Islands connects five islands with more than sixty km of waterfront and twenty km of beaches).

Following the success of Mayfair Gardens, in Jumeirah Garden City, its first foray in the Dubai property sector, Majid Developments has launched its second project – Arlington Park. Located in Dubailand, the project will comprise one hundred and forty units, with a range of studio to two-bedroom apartments – available both furnished and partly-furnished. Premium amenities include an infinity pool, state-of-the-art gym, sauna, co-working space and dedicated game room, designed to support both wellness and recreation.

Dubai’s Centurion Properties has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China’s CITIC Construction, to promote bilateral cooperation to deliver large-scale, premium real estate developments, in the emirate, with constructions planned to commence from Q3 2025. Centurion, established in 2013, has already had previous launches such as Capital One, Flora Isle, and Sola Residences whilst its Chinese partner, with an asset base of US$ 1.7 trillion, is a new entrant. The partnership is hoping to develop over ten million sq ft of built-up area, with a gross development value of US$ 2.86 billion, comprising luxury residential developments and high-end commercial projects in Business Bay, Meydan Horizon, Motor City, Dubai Islands, Dubai South, and Jumeirah Village Circle.

Azerbaijan becomes the latest country to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the UAE. The trade pact was formalised by the Minister of Foreign Trade, Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, and Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister, Mikayil Jabbarov. As with previous CEPAs, it builds on growing bilateral trade ties, with non-oil trade between the two countries reaching US$ 2.4 billion in 2024– 43% higher on the year. It is hoped that this will open new opportunities in renewable energy, tourism, logistics and construction services, while also boosting investment and private sector collaboration. Furthermore, the UAE is also the top Arab investor in Azerbaijan, with investments exceeding US$ 1 billion. This latest agreement is part of the UAE’s target to increase the country’s non-oil foreign trade to US$ 1.1 trillion by 2031

Yet again, the Airports Council International confirmed DXB as the world’s busiest hub for international passengers. Last year, it saw a 6.1% hike in international passenger numbers to 92.33 million, well ahead of London Heathrow, Incheon in South Korea, Singapore and Amsterdam with 79.19 million, 70.67 million, 67.06 million and 66.82 million passengers. However, when it comes to total passengers – encompassing both domestic and international – Atlanta tops the chart with 108.07 million in front of Dubai, Dallas Fort Worth, (87.81 million), Tokyo Haneda, (85.9 million), and LHR (83.88 million). Global passenger traffic hit a new high in 2024, surpassing 9.4 billion travellers — up 8.4% from 2023 and 2.7% above 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Agreements with Crypto.com have been signed this week that will see both Emirates and Dubai Duty Free customers allowed to pay in digital currency for air tickets and shopping. The world’s largest international carrier said the integration of the system for crypto payments is expected to take effect next year. The move supports Dubai’s goal of becoming a global hub for digital finance.

Immigrant Invest has placed the UAE second behind Spain, but ahead of countries such as Montenegro, the Bahamas and Hungary, as a leading force and key player in the digital nomad economy. The ranking was based on strict criteria including internet quality, tax policies, cost of living, healthcare, and unmatched levels of safety and stability. On a global scale, the remote working sector is said to be worth more than US$ 800 billion – and growing fast. Today, digital nomadism is shared by nearly forty million people globally and is expected to top one billion over the next decade. According to RemoteWork360’s global rankings, Dubai is leading as the top city for remote work, (with Abu Dhabi ranked fourth), helped by tailor-made initiatives such as Dubai’s Remote Work Visa. As long ago as March 2021, the UAE had become one of the first in the world to launch a renewable one-year visa for digital nomads.

The mid-year Global SWF report indicates that the UAE is third in the table, behind the two power houses, US and China.  Sovereign-owned investment assets include capital managed by sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds. In the UAE there is a broad network of government-backed investment institutions, such as Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadala Investment Company and the Investment Corporation of Dubai but also the likes of Emirates Investment Authority, Sharjah Asset Management, RAK Investment Authority, and Dubai World. The top ten ranking indicates: 1                US                                                US$         12.12 trillion 2                China                                                            3.36 trillion 3               UAE                                                               2.49 trillion 4                Japan                                                           2.22 trillion 5                Norway                                                        1.90 trillion 6                Canada                                                         1.86 trillion 7                Singapore                                                   1.59 trillion 8                Australia                                                     1.53 trillion 9                Saudi Arabia                                             1.53 trillion 10             South Korea                                              1.17 trillion                                      Newly released data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat indicates that the UAE has surpassed the US when it comes to the number of completed skyscrapers, exceeding three hundred mt in height. Its thirty-seven buildings in that category surpasses the thirty-one registered in the US – but both are well behind the one hundred and twenty-two existing in China. However, the Burj Khalifa is still the highest in the world – at eight hundred and twenty-eight mt. Across all height categories, the UAE now ranks third globally, with three hundred and forty-five buildings, over one hundred and fifty mt, and one hundred and fifty-nine above two hundred mt.   In September, Kempinski The Boulevard Hotel in Dubai, will be the home of WOOHOO, a new restaurant developed by Gastronaut Hospitality. It will feature an AI-powered chef, a large language model trained on food science and recipes. Aiman, designed to collaborate alongside human chefs, will offer creative input on flavour profiles, ingredient pairings and culinary techniques, and will be working with chef Reif Othman on a menu that fuses international flair with Asian influence.   Last week it was testing the operational viability of flying taxis – this week it is self-driving cars on Dubai roads which are being taken through their paces in Dubai, ahead of pilot trials of autonomous vehicles in Q4; if successful, it would mean a major step toward launching a fully driverless commercial service next year. The Roads and Transport Authority has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Pony.ai, a global leader in autonomous driving technology, to spearhead the pilot programme in the emirate. The strategy has the twin aims of converting 25% of all trips in Dubai into autonomous journeys, across various modes of transport, by 2030 and becoming a global leader in smart mobility and sustainable transport.   Last month, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced that all the nation’s incorporated crypto service providers, serving international clients, must obtain a Digital-Token Service Provider licence by 30 June. There was to be no grace period and those entities who failed to comply face fines of up to US$ 200k, and three years in prison.  The end result will be a crypto exodus, with the likes of Dubai – and Hong Kong – benefitting as digital asset firms move to relocate to more business-friendly jurisdictions. It is reported that exchanges such as Bitget and Bybit, are actively exploring suitable relocations. There is no doubt that the UAE is a favoured alternative to many, as it –as already developed a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Indeed, global compliance consultancy Sumsub, estimates that, last year, the UAE attracted crypto investments worth more than US$ 30 billion. Good news this week saw the UAE being removed from the EU’s list of high-risk third world countries for money laundering and terrorist financing, which the Minister of State, Ahmed bin Ali Al Sayegh, called a clear and independent recognition of the UAE’s strong commitment to combating financial crime and upholding international standards. He also added that the country remains a trusted global financial hub and a reliable partner to the EU and that the country looks forward to strengthening its partnership with the European bloc. Under Article (14) of Federal Decree Law No. (20) of 2018, which governs anti-money laundering and the combating of terrorism financing and illegal organisations in the UAE, the CBUAE has imposed a total of US$ 1.12 million in financial sanctions on three exchange houses. The penalties were fixed after a thorough examination which revealed deficiencies in their AML/CFT policies and procedures. The central bank is keen to ensure that all licensed financial institutions meet international standards in risk management, compliance, and financial crime prevention.   Yesterday, the Central Bank of the UAE imposed a US$ 817k fine on an unnamed UAE-based bank for violating anti-money laundering regulations. The fine follows findings from regulatory examinations, which revealed that the bank had failed to comply with the Central Bank’s instructions on AML standards, as outlined in the decree law and its subsequent amendments.   The CBUAE has also revoked the licence of Al Khazna Insurance Company PSC, under Article 33 of Federal Decree Law No. (48) of 2023, which governs insurance activities in the UAE. The firm had failed to meet licencing requirements necessary to operate during the suspension period of its licence.   The DFM opened the week, on Monday 07 July, on 5,741 points and gained one hundred and fourteen points (2.0%), to close the trading week on 5,855 points, by Friday 11 July 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.41 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.08, closing on US$ 3.87 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.76, US$ 6.40, US$ 2.50 and US$ 0.47 and closed on US$ 0.76, US$ 6.62, US$ 2.52 and US$ 0.48. On 11 July, trading was at seven hundred and fifty-three million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and five million dollars, compared to one hundred and ninety-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and fourteen million dollars, on 04 July 2025.   By mid-afternoon Friday, 11 July 2025, Brent, US$ 2.38 lower (2.6%) the previous week, gained US$ 3.24 (4.9%) to close on US$ 69.52. Gold, US$ 227 (7.3%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 18 (0.5%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,362 on 11 July.

Last Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to a 540k bpd increase next month – accelerating output increases following the surge in prices after the US/Israeli attacks on Iran; there had been 411k bpd increases in place over the past three months, following 138k bpd in April. This brings the total from April to August to 1.918 million bpd, leaving just 280k bpd to be released. The production boost has come from eight members of the group – UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria – who had started to unwind their most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd in April. The bloc has been curtailing production over the past three years but started to reverse this stance earlier in 2025, driven by Donald Trump’s demand that more oil should be pumped so as to keep US gasoline prices lower. On top of that, OPEC+ allowed the UAE to increase output by 300k bpd. OPEC+, which groups the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, led by Russia, wants to expand market share amid growing supplies from rival producers like the United States. The bloc cited a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, including low oil inventories, as reasons for releasing more oil.

Yesterday, the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure reiterated that the UAE remains focused on delivering its planned production capacity of five million bpd by 2027, confirming that there had been no change to its production capacity target, emphasising the country’s long-term energy strategy remains on track.

Reports indicate that Octopus Energy Group could be in the throes of divesting Kraken Technology, its tech arm, from the group. This possible demerger, that could be finalised within the year, could see the UK’s largest residential gas and electricity supplier solidifying its status as one of the country’s most valuable private companies. It is expected that at least a 20% stake in Kraken would be offered to the market to ensure the validation of the value of the technology platform, which could see it worth over US$ 14.0 billion; this would value the whole group, including the retail supply business, at well over US$ 20.0 billion – double its value of just a year ago. Octopus Energy now has 7.5 million retail customers in the UK, following its 2022 rescue of the collapsed energy supplier Bulb, and the subsequent acquisition of Shell’s home energy business. Its chief executive, Greg Jackson, founded the company in 2015.

Coincidentally, the energy giant has agreed to pay some of its clients a total of US$ 2.0 million in refunds and compensation after failing to provide customers with final bills within six weeks. Ofgem found out that some 34k prepayment meter customers, between 2014 and October 2023, had been impacted with an average payout of US$ 58.

On Wednesday, Nvidia hit another record by becoming the first public company in the world to have a market cap of above US$ 4.0 trillion, as its share value rose 2.4% to US$ 164, attributable to a surge in demand for AI technologies. The Californian-based company, founded in 1993, first hit the US$ 1 trillion value level two years ago in June 2023, and since then its market value has quadrupled. Its shares have rebounded by almost 74% since hitting an April 2025 nadir, when global markets were royally spooked by President Trump’s tariffs’ policy. It is estimated that its total value is worth more than all publicly listed companies in the UK. Microsoft is the second biggest US$ company with a US$ 3.75 trillion market cap and could easily top the US$ 4.0 trillion mark sometime this year.

Driven by continuing demand from institutional investors and President Trump’s crypto-friendly policies, Bitcoin hit a record US$ 116.78k in early Friday morning trading – a 24%+ YTD gain. Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, similarly jumped almost 5% to a five-month high US$ 2,998.

TDR, the private equity backers of David Lloyd Leisure, since 2013, is close to finalising a US$ 2.71 billion agreement that will see it retain ownership of the premium health and fitness chain. The asset management company is drawing up a so-called continuation vehicle which effectively transfers ownership of the group from one of its funds to another entity which has many of the same investors. TDR has almost lined up some major new investors to help fund the US$ 1.08 billion of equity commitments required to finance the deal, with the balance of US$ 1.63 billion in the form of David Lloyd Leisure’s existing debt rolling over to the continuation vehicle. The chain, one of the biggest in Europe, hosts eight hundred thousand members, employs 11.5k and has one hundred and thirty-four clubs. In its last financial year, it posted an EBITDA of US$ 311 million – 33.0% higher on the year. TDR, which also owns Asda and Stonegate Group, Britain’s biggest pub company, has explored a sale of David Lloyd Leisure in the past, including recently, but did not attract offers of a sufficient value, according to bankers.

Effective from 01 July 2025, the Pakistan Airports Authority posted new increased prices for their air cargo throughput charges, starting at 25% and go up to 100% for some goods; it impacts eight total commodities including general cargo split between Air Freight Unit and Immediate Clearance Group, up 30% to US$ 0.23 per kg and by 25% to US$ 0.44 per kg. All other remaining categories are facing a 50% increase. They include unaccompanied baggage and trans-shipments up to US$ 0.053, dangerous goods, live domestic birds, and pets/animals to US$ 1.06 and paan (betel life) to US$ 0.25 per kg. These increases are down to multiple ongoing crises both regionally and globally that are affecting factors like fuel prices, trade routes, and more, which has impacted operation costs for airports.

Despite falling exports, the Republic of Korea posted a May current account surplus for the twenty-fifth consecutive month – at US$ 10.14 billion, 77.9% higher compared to April. YTD, the cumulative current account was 29.8% higher, at US$ 35.11 billion over the five-month period.

With pay growth continuing to lag behind persistent inflation, In May, Japan’s real wages fell 2.9%, on the year – the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest drop in nearly two years; it was also well up on the 2.0% fall registered in April, as well as being the largest drop since September 2023 due largely to lower bonuses. Nominal wages, including base and overtime pay, grew 1.0% to the equivalent of US 2,047, rising for the forty-first straight month. This year, Japanese companies agreed to a 5.25% average pay rise, at a time when May consumer prices rose 4.0%, attributable to higher rice and other food costs – hence maintaining real, or inflation-adjusted, wages in negative territory.

Due to global geopolitical tensions, and other factors, it seems that the EU plans to stockpile critical minerals; other factors include climate change, increasing cyber-attacks and environmental degradation. The EU is encouraging member states not only to coordinate backup supplies of food, medicines and even nuclear fuel, but also to accelerate work on EU-level stockpiles of items such as cable repair modules “to ensure prompt recovery from energy or optical cable disruptions” and commodities such as rare earths and permanent magnets, which are crucial for energy and defence systems. Earlier in the year, on stockpiling, it said that Brussels should “define targets to ensure minimum levels of preparedness in different crisis scenarios, including in the event of an armed aggression or the large-scale disruption of global supply chains”. The EU in March also advised households to stockpile essential supplies to survive at least seventy-two hours of crisis.

In May, the thirty-nine-nation bloc OECD estimated that year on year inflation declined 0.2% to 4.0% – its lowest level since June 2021 and a 6.7% fall from its October 2022 peak. However, average price levels across the organisation continued to surge at almost twice the 2019 average rate and were 33.7% higher than in December 2019. In the month, headline inflation fell in fifteen OECD countries, (with Türkiye, the Netherlands and Lithuania all posting decreases of over 0.5%), with increases registered in nine countries, of which four – Czechia, Greece, Mexico, and Norway posted rises of more than 0.5%. Headline inflation was stable or broadly stable in the remaining fourteen countries. Year-on-year OECD core inflation (inflation less food and energy) fell 0.2% to 4.4%, with decreases in twenty-four OECD countries, rises in five countries, and stable or broadly stable in the remaining nine countries. Food and energy inflation in the OECD showed little change in May, at 4.6% and minus 0.3%, respectively. However, cumulative increases in both food and energy price levels since December 2019 exceed 40%.

The global copper market received a jolt, on Tuesday, when Donald Trump decided to levy a 50% tariff on imports of the world’s most important industrial metal. 40% of US$ copper is sourced domestically – via domestic mines or recycled scrap – and the remaining 60% form overseas, with Chile its leading source market. Such a high tariff would decimate Zambia’s already struggling copper industry, which accounts for some 70% of the country’s exports. Strangely, the US, via its International Development Finance Corporation, is a main partner in the Lobito Corridor – a major infrastructure initiative focused on improving connectivity between Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, set up during Trump’s first term in 2019. The US is committed to four billion dollars – or 66.6% of the total project cost. This is considered an important element in countering Chinese control over copper and cobalt supplies.  It aims to create a more efficient trade route for critical raw materials from the DRC and Zambia to global markets. This project is seen as a way to reduce reliance on existing routes like the TAZARA railway and Beira port, and to foster economic growth and regional integration. (In the 1970s, Africa was the forgotten continent, with US and Europe reluctant to invest, so much so that Zambia and Tanzania approached the Chinese who built the TAZARA, which stretched from Dar es Salaam on the Indian Ocean to Kapiri Mposhi in central Zambia, to link Zambian copper ore exports to the Tanzanian port city, bypassing apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia).

Latest reports indicate that starting 01 August, the US President will raise tariffs on Canadian goods by 10% to 35% and warned its neighbour that it would raise the levy even further if they were to retaliate. He did note that “if Canada works with me to stop the flow of fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter”. He also complained that Canada’s tariff and non-tariff trade barriers harmed US dairy farmers and others and added that the trade deficit was a threat to the US economy and national security. An exclusion for goods, covered by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade was expected to remain in place, and 10% tariffs on energy and fertiliser were also not set to change. Canada is the second-largest US trading partner, after Mexico, and the largest buyer of US exports, valued at US$ 349.4 billion whist exporting US$ 412.7 billion. It appears that other countries would mainly fall in the 15% – 20% tariff, as Trump indicated that other trading partners, who had not yet received such letters, would likely face blanket tariffs.

There is no doubt that the UK motoring public are becoming enchanted with Chinese vehicles with latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders indicating that 10% of cars sold last month, (numbering 18.94k), originated from there; this figure was 6.0% higher compared to a year earlier. YTD more than 8% of cars sold in the UK were Chinese – up from 5% a year earlier; they included brands such as BYD, Jaecoo, Omoda, MG and Polestar. With the UK not having a such a big car industry as some of its European neighbours, it does not see the need to impose tariffs against car imports, which most other G7 countries have. To date this year, figures show that Chinese brands account for only 4.3% of the EU – and much lower in Germany, (1.6%) and in France, (2.7%) but higher in Spain at 9.2%.

Thames Water has fast become a bad joke. The Starmer government had warned that it would block “outrageous payments”, as it tries to avoid renationalisation. This week, it was found that twenty-one senior staff at the utility had been paid   US$ 3.4 million – being the first instalment of planned staff bonus payouts for securing a US$ 4.07 billion emergency loan from senior creditors. Its chairman confirmed that “the board does not intend to recover this money”. It will be an interesting meeting next week when the some of those staff face a parliamentary environment committee. All this is happening at a time when Thames Water is sinking under the weight of a massive US$ 27.10 billion debt and is teetering on the brink of temporary renationalisation.

The UK Competition and Markets Authority has investigated the shenanigans of seven of the country’s biggest housebuilders, who have subsequently agreed to pay a total of US$ 136 million to be paid to affordable UK housing schemes. The CMA had obtained evidence that commercially sensitive information, including on prices, had been shared between the cheating seven – Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Bloor Homes, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry. They also “agreed to legally binding commitments which will prevent anti-competitive behaviour and promote industry-wide compliance”. The investigation was driven by the CMA finding evidence of information sharing last year after it was studying why the country was building too few homes. At the time, it concluded that factors, including the UK’s “complex and unpredictable planning system” were to blame.

Mace has come out with frightening statistics on the state of the British building industry. The construction group analysed 5k mega projects, those worth over US$ 1.0 billion, across the developed world; there are also currently eighteen “giga-projects” – those worth more than US$ 10 billion – under way, such as HS2 and the Lower Thames Crossing. It measured the time span on the delivery of such projects and discovered that it took the US and Australia 8.8 years and 9.9 years to deliver – some way quicker than the UK’s 12.5 years. It also estimated that of the five hundred active mega projects in the country, (three times the 2010 number), more than 10% had no plan and were at high risk of a prolonged stoppage. It concluded that the two main reasons for the UK’s poor standing were “bureaucratic consenting processes”, (for example, the average time taken to secure approval doubled between 2009 and 2019, according to a recent report by the consultancy Stonehaven), and “a lack of clear strategic direction at the government level”. The country appears to be much slower when delivering mega-infrastructure projects, such as railways or bridges, when the average delivery takes 16.2 years, some 25% more than the average of developed countries. The HS2 project is typical of the problems epitomised by the HS2 supremo, Mark Wild, who noted the physical structures on the line should have been “largely completed” by now but were instead 60% finished, whilst the whole project – including tracks, trains, overhead lines etc – “we’re about a third complete”. It leaves the project two or three years behind the already-extended schedule. All this will have a bearing on extending its completion date so much so the speed of trains will have dropped by nearly 20% to just 200kph which is the speed French TVG rains currently reach.

Since the Chancellor decided to hike up the living wage and national insurance contributions in her October 2024 budget, it is estimated thar some 69k jobs have been lost just from the sector, according to UK Hospitality; the NI employers’ contribution, amended 1.2% higher to 15.0%, has added an annual US$ 27.20 billion to employers’ costs. Furthermore, the latest BDO Business Trends barometer posted that hiring confidence was at its lowest level in thirteen years, with the June employment index at 94.22 from 94.32. It noted that the disappointing results indicated a “prolonged caution from UK business”, with many firms  “holding back on recruitment”, ahead of almost inevitable tax rises later in Q4.

Another worrying month for the embattled Chancellor, as the Office for National Statistics posted a 0.1% May decline in the UK economy, following a 0.3% dip in April – analysts had expected a positive 0.1%. The main ‘culprit’ was the manufacturing sector dipping 0.3% on the month to a 1.0% decline, with the fall in production driven by oil and gas extraction, car manufacturing and the pharmaceutical industry; retail sales had another disappointing month. The services sector came in 0.1% higher on the month. It seems that Rachel Reeves will have no other option bug to raise taxes by billions of pounds and/or introduce further spending cuts to maintain her fiscal rules. PM Starmer is probably one of the few, in the country, wishing that the good lady Don’t Give Up On Me Now!