Glory Days?                                                                         01 August 2025

Apart from homeowners and banks, both of whom have been “filling their boots” over the past five years of the Dubai real estate boom, the emirate’s property brokers have not fared too badly either. This sector, which has already seen a 29.6% hike this year, in its numbers, to 29.58k, earned 99.4% more commission, (from 42.18k transactions), in H1 at US$ 880 million, compared to H1 2024.

eXp’s latest report indicates that average property prices had increased by 3.3% in Q1, and by 12% over the past twelve months, confirming that the emirate’s property sector continues in robust health. It also noted that in Q1, apartments registered a 3.8% appreciation surpassing villas’ 2.4% increase. This was put down to growing preference among younger professionals and new expatriate arrivals for compact, centrally located living options that offer proximity to workplaces, transit networks, and lifestyle amenities. However, for the twelve-month period, villa prices were more than double that of apartments – 19.7% to 8.5% – attributable to continuing demand for larger homes by long-term residents and families. Dounia Fadi, MD of eXp Dubai commented that “Dubai’s property market continues to thrive, offering diverse options to meet the evolving needs of its residents while flats cater to the dynamic, urban lifestyle of younger professionals, villas are attracting families seeking more space and a tranquil environment. This balance ensures a resilient and sustainable market with strong growth across the board.”

The Dubai Land Department posted that H1 transactions rose by over 20% on the year to top 67k, valued at a record US$ 57.22 billion. There is no doubt that demand is still buoyant in the market and that there are not enough ready units available, so much so that new project launches seem to be a daily occurrence in the market. Indeed, off plan sales have surged by over 28% during the period. All the big developers – including the likes of Emaar, Azizi, Damac, Binghatti, Sobha, Danube and Damac – seem to be going at full throttle to build sooner rather than later, with major launches. Knight Frank expects a 7.0% growth this year in Dubai’s prime residential market, driven by robust investor appetite, limited supply of ready high-end units, and consistent rental returns.

As prices go up so do rentals. Reports indicate that yields in Dubai – 6.8% for apartments and 5.3% for villas – are among the highest globally. These high returns enhance Dubai’s reputation on the world stage even more so when not many markets have zero capital gains tax and streamlined regulatory procedures, along with Dubai rating high on many other factors – including lifestyle, world class infrastructure, global hub, excellent medical/educational facilities, safety – continue to attract international investors and institutional capital into Dubai’s real estate sector.

With an outstanding feature of having the first ever beach in Jumeirah Village Triangle, Binghatti has unveiled ‘Binghatti Flare’. The US$ 572 million twin tower project, with 1.3k units, will boast over twenty resort-style amenities across both towers.

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has signed a long-term purchase-lease back agreement with United Airlines for ten new Boeing 737-9s for delivery between August 2025 and February 2026; this follows a recent similar deal with the same airline involving an Airbus A321neo. DAE currently owns, manages, and is committed to own or manage a total of seven hundred and fifty aircraft, including two hundred and twenty-five from Boeing, with plans to further expand its fleet to meet growing market demand.

H1 proved a healthy period of growth for the Dubai International Financial Centre, with its best ever half-yearly results including a record number of new firms – 25.1% higher on the year to 7.7k, a 32.0% surge of 1.08k new active registered companies, and a 9.4% hike in the number of professionals working to 47.90k. Its president, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed noted that “Dubai has entered a new and greater phase of growth, and these results highlight the competitiveness, attractiveness, and global confidence it enjoys. We firmly believe the future holds even more opportunities, and we will continue to strengthen DIFC’s capabilities and its ecosystems that foster innovation, agility, and business growth”. The latest Global Financial Centres Index confirms Dubai as one of only eight cities globally to possess ‘broad and deep’ capabilities across all parts, standing alongside cities like London, New York, and Paris. Dubai is currently the sole centre in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia to be listed among the top GFCI ranked financial cities globally in several sectors – FinTech (fifth), professional services (sixth), investment management (eighth), infrastructure (nineth) and business environment (tenth).

According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation, forty Domestic Worker Recruitment Offices were penalised during H1, for some one hundred and forty violations of the Labour Law concerning domestic workers and its implementing regulations. The Ministry indicated that the majority of recorded violations consisted of failure to refund all or part of the recruitment fees to employers dealing with them, within the specified period of two weeks from the date the domestic worker was brought back to the recruitment office, or from the date the domestic worker was reported to have stopped working. Infringements also included non-compliance with displaying Ministry-approved service package prices clearly to clients.

H1 saw Dubai International Airport posting a 2.3% rise in passengers to attract forty-six million – and this despite temporary regional airspace disruptions in May and June. Of that figure, 22.5 million arrived Iin Q2, with average monthly and daily volumes coming in on 7.7 million and 222k respectively. Some other interesting statistics include DXB handling 222k total flights and 41.8 million bags, (with 91% delivered within forty-five minutes on arrival). Although the industry average stands at 6.3 bags per 1k passengers, DXB’s rates are under 2.0; it expects to post a 4.7% hike in bags handled to more than eighty-five million by year end. Efficiency ratios continue to improve, as witnessed by 99.2% of guests clearing departure passport control in under ten minutes, 98.4% clearing arrivals in under fifteen minutes, and 98.7% passing through security checks in under five minutes. The airport handled 0.1% more cargo at just over 1.0 million tonnes. Currently, DXB is connected to more than two hundred and sixty-nine destinations, in over one hundred and seven countries, served by a network of over ninety-two international carriers.

The top five country source markets were India, Saudi Arabia, UK, Pakistan and US, with guest numbers of 5.9 million, 3.6 million, 3.0 million, 2.1 million and 1.6 million respectively.  The busiest city destinations were London, Riyadh, Mumbai, Jeddah and New Delhi with 1.8 million guests, 1.5 million, 1.2 million, 1.1 million and 1.1 million.

On the same date, 01 August 2015, a decade ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. The approved fuel prices by the Ministry of Energy are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. After two months of unchanged prices, August saw marginal monthly decreases for petrol whilst diesel prices headed 5.6% higher. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for August is as follows:

Super 98     US$ 0.733 from US$ 0.736       in Aug       up      3.1% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.700 from US$ 0.703      in Aug         up     2.8% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.681 from US$ 0.684      in Aug         up     2.9% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.757 from US$ 0.717      in Aug        up     3.7% YTD US$ 0.730

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid posted that in H1, Dubai’s non-oil trade surged 24.5% – to US$ 463.2 billion – double the figure from just five years earlier. The Dubai Ruler also noted that “our non-oil trade with our international partners surged at a record rate in the first half of 2025, reaching 120% with Switzerland, 33%, with India, 41%, with Turkey, 29%, with the US, and 15% with China”, and “the numbers say that the future will be more beautiful and greater.”

Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of Foreign Trade, said that the growth rate was fourteen times higher than the global average of approximately 1.75%. He also noted that the country had concluded twenty-eight CEPA agreements, with ten already in force, and between three and six more expected to be signed before the end of the year. Imports have risen by 22.5%, reinforcing the UAE’s position as a major global re-export centre. Re-export value increased by 14% to reach US$ 106.0 billion, whilst non-oil exports witnessed a significant leap to nearly US$ 100.82 billion, three times their value of five years ago. National exports accounted for more than 21.4% of total. The minister was in Australia this week when legislation was passed yesterday formally entering the Australia-UAE CEPA into law. The country is Australia’s largest trade and investment partner in the ME, with bilateral trade reaching US$ 7.95 billion last year, and, once implemented, over 99% of imports into the UAE will be tariff-free.

Pursuant to Articles (33) and (44) of Federal Decree Law No. (48) of 2023 Regulating Insurance Activities, the Central Bank of the UAE suspended the motor insurance business of a foreign insurance company’s branch. The suspension, which resulted from its failure to comply with the solvency and guarantee requirements, also means that the insurer remains liable for all rights and obligations arising from insurance contracts concluded before the suspension.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s announcement today to keep the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances unchanged, the Central Bank of the UAE has maintained its Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility at 4.40%. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at fifty bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities.

In H1, Union Properties posted a 43.7% hike in gross profits to US$ 21 million, against US$ 14 million a year ago, although net profit came in 58.2% lower on US$ 4 million – attributable to ‘front-loaded investments in development activities and infrastructure upgrades’.  The developer – which has had a troubled past – aims to repay its final remaining US$ 3 million legacy debt in Q3.

With revenue and profit both rising by over 20%, to US$ 381 million and US$ 201 million, the Tecom Board of Directors was able to approve an interim US$ 109 million H1 cash dividend; much of the improvement was down to solid occupancy levels for its many business hubs and growth through recent strategic investments. Occupancy for the group’s ‘land lease’ portfolio reached 99%, ‘led by strong customer demand from the industrial sector’, with Dubai Industrial City reporting ‘strong occupancy rates, cementing its position as the region’s leading manufacturing and logistics hub’, along with others in its portfolio such as the Dubai Internet and Media Cities, Dubai Industrial City and Dubai Design District. A new dividend policy will be applied when it comes to H2 payouts for shareholders, which will include an expected 10% increase.

Driven by fleet expansion and higher demand across mobility segments, Dubai Taxi Company posted impressive Q2 and H1 results, with revenue 18.0% and 11.0% higher at US$ 170 million and US$ 327 million. Net Q2 profit was 33% higher at US$ 29 million and EBITDA by 30% to US$ 49 million, with a Q2 29% margin. The Board approved an interim dividend of US$ 44 million (US$ 0.0175 per share) for H1 2025, in line with DTC’s policy to distribute at least 85% of annual net profit. The company ended the period with a cash balance of US$ 64 million. Of that, the taxi segment generated US$ 147 million, up 18%, (as the operational fleet reached 6.21k vehicles, including three hundred and thirty-five electric taxis), limousine revenue at US$ 8 million, 8% higher, the delivery bike segment 102% higher at US$ 5 million, whilst bus revenue was down 12% due to contractual changes.

Dubai Financial Market (DFM) announced its H1 consolidated financial results posting marked increases across the board – with revenue, gross profit and net profit before tax up 191% to US$ 242 million, 298% to US$ 210 million, and at US$ 175 million. DFM recorded increased trading activity during H1 2025, with average daily traded value rising 75% on the year to US$ 189 million, leading to a total traded value of US$ 23.16 billion, up 77.1%. Market capitalisation reached US$ 271.12 billion, split between Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Industrial, Communication Services and Consumer Staples and other sectors comprising the remainder, 40%, 20%, 17%, 12%, 5% and 6% respectively.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 28 July, on 6,150 points, and having gained two hundred and ninety-five points (5.0%), the previous three weeks, was fifty-six points higher, (0.9%), to close the trading week on 6,206 points, by Friday 01 August 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.67 higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 0.18, closing on US$ 4.28 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.77, US$ 7.30, US$ 2.65 and US$ 0.48 and closed on US$ 0.77, US$ 7.11, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.49. On 01 August, trading was at two hundred and three million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-two million dollars, compared to three hundred and eighty million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and thirty-three million dollars on 25 July 2025.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 July at 6167, was 2.144 points (51.8%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 2.00, to close on 31 July at US$ 4.16. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed July 2025 at US$ 0.75, US$ 7.23, US$ 2.72 and US$ 0.48.  

By 01 August 2025, Brent, US$ 1.28 lower (1.8%) the previous week, gained US$ 0.21 (1.8%) to close on US$ 69.61. Gold, US$ 23 (0.1%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 6 (0.3%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,348 on 01 August.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 5.60 (7.5%), to close 31 July 2025 on US$ 69.21. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of July, the yellow metal had gained US$ 679 (27.4%) and was trading at US$ 3,343.

In H1, the ice cream business side of Unilever, which includes Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s, posted a 5.9% hike in underlying sales growth. It is reported that it accounts for some US$ 9.27 billion of Unilever’s total business. Last year, the consumer goods giant announced that it planned to spin off this side of the business, into a separate entity, and has now finalised the operational separation of its ice cream business and is on track to demerge the division sometime in Q4. It has also confirmed that it will retain a 20% or less stake following the demerger, and that it had, to the dismay of the LSE, picked Amsterdam’s stock market as the primary listing venue for The Magnum Ice Cream Company. The division will have secondary listings in London and New York.

The British Retail Consortium has released its July shop price monitor which points to food prices, 0.3% higher on the month, to 4.0% and the sixth consecutive month that the rate has gone higher. It indicated that one of the main drivers was tighter global supplies for staples, including meat and tea, that have hit wholesale prices hard. The index also found that inflation for fresh food, including fruit and vegetables, remained at 3.2% in the year to July, but inflation for cupboard goods increased to 5.1% over the same period.

Further worrying news for the Starmer administration came with the Institute of Directors’ Economic Index which witnessed a 19-point decline to -72 – its worst reading since the research started in 2016. Confidence in the British economy among business leaders has tumbled, amid fears of the impact of tax rises and President Trump’s trade war.

July figures from the US Labor Department show that 73k seasonal adjusted jobs were added – well down on the 110k expected by analysts – whilst the unemployment rate rose 0.1% on the month to 4.2%. The manufacturing sector lost 11k jobs – its third consecutive month of job losses – with the US Federal government shedding 12k. The Labor Department also reported that hiring in May and June was weaker than it previously stated. Employers added 258k fewer jobs across those two months than previously forecast. Following the release of these figures, Donald Trump accused Erika McEntarfer, a top Labor Department official appointed by former President Joe Biden, of faking the jobs numbers. Her dismissal also occurred at a time when there were already growing concerns about the quality of economic data published by the federal government department.

However, there was potentially some good news for the US President when a Governor of the Federal Reserve, Adriana Kugler, unexpectedly announced her resignation this afternoon. It gives him an earlier-than-expected opportunity to install a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank’s Board of Governors. He has continually threatened to fire the current Fed chief for some time because the Fed has not been reducing rates which Trump thinks should be the case to solidify the US economy.

On his five-day golf trip to Scotland, Donald Trump welcomed the EC ‘s President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade deficits, which stood at US$ 235 billion last year, and advised her that the twenty-seven bloc would have to pay a 15% tariff for most of its exports to the US. The golfing president commented that “I think this is the biggest deal ever made,” and praised the EU for its plans to invest some US$ 600 billion in the US and dramatically increase its purchases of US energy and military equipment. The chastened European supremo described Trump as a tough negotiator, and that the deal was “the best we could get”; she also confirmed that the 15% tariff applied “across the board”. The US will keep in place a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, no tariffs from either side on commercial aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. Some analysts have noted that Europe has been getting away with the unfair treatment of US exporters and this move will more or less level the playing field, as far as trade is concerned. Meanwhile, many European leaders will balk at the agreement on the grounds that the tariff is too high, especially those who were expecting a zero-for-zero tariff deal. This latest tariff agreement will be seen as another Trump triumph who has started doing what he had promised to do – to reorder the global economy and reduce decades-old trade deficits.

Earlier in the week, Donald Trump posted that the US tariff for South Korea, would be 15% in what he called a “full and complete trade deal”; it had been facing a 25% levy. Only last week, Japan, a major trade competitor in vehicle and manufacturing, agreed to a 15% tariff; this covers both cars and semiconductors, but steel and aluminium will be taxed at 50%, in line with the global rate. In addition, Seoul will also be investing US$ 350.0 billion in the US. On the plus side for the Koreans was that it did not have to further open up its rice and beef markets to US imports. The country could consider that it has done well with this agreement when it is noted that, last year, it had a record US$ 56.0 billion trade surplus with the US.

Yesterday, the US and Pakistan agreed a tariff deal that will result in lower tariffs, along with a deal that Washington will help develop Islamabad’s oil reserves; Donald Trump noted that “we are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this Partnership”. Although no US details were available, Pakistan said the trade deal “will result in reduction of reciprocal tariffs especially on Pakistani exports to the United States”, but with no further details added; the country was facing a potential 29% tariff on exports to the US – last year, US total goods trade with Pakistan was an estimated US$ 7.3 billion, with the US goods trade deficit at US$ 3.0 billion.

Today, 01 August, was a big day for Trump’s tariffs, with the US President unveiling new export tariffs on a plethora of nations, including Brazil, Canada, India, Switzerland and Taiwan hit with levies of 50%, 35%, 25%, 39% and 20% respectively. The administration noted that the new tariffs applying to sixty-eight countries and the European Union would come into effect in seven days. Goods from all other countries, not listed, would be subject to a 10% US import tax. It is estimated that the average US tariff rate, which stood at 2.3%, prior to Trump’s arrival to the White House, will rise almost seven-fold to a 15.2% level. Trump’s tariffs, if they go ahead as planned, will impact nearly US$ 3 trillion in goods imported into the country. It will obviously reduce the massive US debt, create thousands of new jobs and enrich the country. Glory Days?