There Are More Questions Than Answers!                            05 September 2025

Despite recent mumblings by some doomsayers that the Dubai property sector was heading for a correction of some 15%, actual figures, from the Dubai Land Department, have proved otherwise. Eight-month YTD data to August show that the record-breaking run continues unabated, with both transaction volumes and actual values up by 21.5% to 112.6k and by 33.7% to US$ 120.22 billion; the value figure already accounts for 84% of the twelve=month total for 2024. August monthly results show sales of US$ 13.80 billion – a major improvement on August figures of the past when in August 2020, sales came to just US$ 1.2 million which rose by to US$ 6.62 billion in 2022. The five leading locations, with the highest sales, accounting for 19.36%, (US$ 23.68 billion) of the total were:

Business Bay                                             US$ 6.60 billion

Me’aisem Second                                    US$ 4.83 billion

Al Yalayis 1                                               US$ 4.35 billion

Jumeirah Village Circle                       US$ 4.15 billion

Airport City                                               US$ 3.75 billion

Total transactions for both residential and commercial properties have jumped by 21.5% to 137.1k deals, whilst overall real estate activity, including mortgages and grants, was 24.2% higher on the year at US$ 162.12 billion, across over 177k transactions. Mortgage activity nudged 3.2% higher, to US$ 32.70 billion, with property grants at US$ 9.11 billion. 

CBRE’s UAE Real Estate Market Review Q2 2025, reaffirms that the state of Dubai realty continues its robust position, backed up by the same four drivers – positive foreign investment, an uptick in oil production, a buoyant economy and an improved growth outlook. Its residential, office and industrial sectors continue in high mode. Dubai Land Department statistics show that it took sixty-two days this year, 04 March, to reach property sales of US$ 272.48 million, (AED 100.0 billion); this landmark was reached on 22 March last year and on 11 April a year earlier. Dubai’s property sales grew by 40% in H1 to US$ 89.00 billion, This upward trajectory continued through until the end of August, with that month’s property sales posting US$ 13.9 billion – 7.9% higher on the year – and transactions 15% higher at 18.68k; apartment sales accounted for 59.1%, (US$ 8.23 billion), of the total August balance.

The Dubai real estate market recorded property sales worth US$ 13.92 billion in August, a 7.9% increase on the same month last year, with the total number of transactions rising 15.4%, on the year to 18.7k. Over the past five years, August returns have been:

2020       US$ 1.28 billion                     2.5k transactions                  US$ 225 per sq ft

2021       US$ 4.09 billion                     5.8k transactions                  US$ 275 per sq ft                

2022       US$ 6.38 billion                     9.4k transactions                  US$ 311 per sq ft                

2023       US$ 9.15 billion                     11.9k transactions               US$ 384 per sq ft

2024       US$ 11.92 billion                  16.2k transactions               US$ 407 per sq ft

fäm Properties posted that apartment sales were worth US$ 8.23 billion, climbed 29.2% in volume to 15.9k, compared to August 2024, with commercial sales  20.4% higher at U$ 327 million and a 7.4% hike in volume involving three hundred and ninety-two plots. Villa sales, worth US$ 2.97 billion, were 38.1% down in volume, on the year, to 1.94k; the average property price per sq ft jumped by 15.2% to US$ 469. The overall number of property deals was the third highest this year following 20.32k in July and 18.69k in May. Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, noted that “the city’s sustained growth is cementing its position as a leading destination for property investment, drawing increasing international attention while domestic and regional demand stays strong”.

This week saw a record sale on Palm Jumeirah making it the most expensive secondary villa sold on the island this year. A Signature Villa garnered US$ 44 million, with a US$ 4k per sq ft price. The 10.9k sq ft residence featured six expansive bedroom suites, multiple living and entertainment spaces, a pool deck and refined interiors.  There have been higher sales recorded this year, with the three highest being three villas – the Emirates Hills villa, The Marble Palace, sold for US$ 116 million, Jumeirah Bay Island – US$ 90 million, and Palm Jumeirah – US$ 82 million. There is no doubt that Dubai’s ultra luxury real estate sector is booming for a myriad of reasons including:

• influx of high-net-worth individuals relocating to the UAE
• strong demand for beachfront and branded residences
• limited supply of ultra-prime homes on key islands

but there will be some watching whether this will continue at such a pace going into Q4.

It seems that Burj Khalifa’s record of being the tallest building in the world, at eight hundred and twenty-eight mt, will come to an end, with Saudi Arabia planning to build two higher skyscrapers – the US$ five billion Riyadh’s Rise Tower, at an astonishing two km, and Jeddah Tower, due to surpass one km, will be completed by 2028. Also, a wild bet would be the upcoming Burj Azizi, in Dubai, scheduled to be completed by 2028; it was supposedly set at seven hundred and twenty-five mt but it could surprise the market if its height topped one km.

The Dubai Rental Disputes Centre, established in 2013, has had a busy Q2 with finalising four hundred and forty-three reconciliation agreements, worth some US$ 54 million On a monthly basis, from April to June, there were one hundred and forty-four, one hundred and ninety-one and one hundred eight, with settlements of US$ 12 million, US$ 7 million and US$ 35 million.

Judge Abdulqader Mousa Mohammed, Chairman of RDC, said “these achievements prove our unwavering commitment to enhancing judicial efficiency and promoting friendly colony mechanisms that deliver justice and uphold the rights of all parties involved. Guided by the vision of Dubai’s leadership, we aim to foster a safe and attractive property market for both investors and residents, while offering innovative solutions that reinforce stability and balance the interests of landlords and tenants alike.”

Dubai continues to enhance its reputation as a premier global destination for events and business tourism. Over the next four months, there will be one hundred and thirty-five exhibitions, conferences, and industry-related events, covering a diverse spectrum from technology, sustainability, and healthcare to food and beverage, energy, construction, transport, finance, and education.

Dubai Airports have announced that its “Red Carpet” corridor has been officially installed to fast-track passport control procedures. Using AI and biometrics, it is the first-of-its-kind in the world, which will see the process seamless and, notwithstanding special cases, will be completed without any stops or documents being presented; this ‘corridor’ will be able to deal with ten passengers which will take between six and fourteen seconds. Such initiatives will ensure that the world’s busiest airport for international flights will maintain its position and further enhance its global leadership in smart travel.

Issued under Binghatti’s US$ 1.5 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme, the Dubai-based developer listed its second five-year US$ 500 million Sukuk by Binghatti Holding on Nasdaq Duba, priced at a profit rate of 8.125%; it was oversubscribed five times. The sukuk is also listed on the London Stock Exchange.: With this listing, the bourse’s total Sukuk listings total US$ 98.6 billion, across one hundred and eight listings, confirming its position as one of the world’s leading venues for Sukuk.

The UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, was in India this week to review the achievements of the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which came into force in 2022; he discussed on expanding opportunities for sectors that can further benefit from its market access provisions. He noted that “in the first half of 2025, our bilateral non-oil trade reached US$ 37.6 billion, a 33.9% rise, compared to the same period last year. This is a significant step towards the ambitious targets we set in 2022. It is vital that we continue to leverage our complementary strengths and deliver broad-based opportunities for our private sectors”.

With the Indian rupee falling to a record low, at 88.3075 to the greenback, and 24.03 to the AED, there has been a surge in the number of remittances from expats cashing in on the news; for example, Ansari Exchange has noted a 15% in transfers to India. Some experts see further turbulence in the forex market, now that Trump tariffs have been levied at 50% for the world’s fourth-largest economy; other factors such as fiscal uncertainty, trade headwinds and portfolio outflows. It is expected that it is still too early for the Reserve Bank of India to intervene as a falling rupee makes Indian exports cheaper. Its recent economic news is more than acceptable – in Q2, it grew 7.8% on the year, and 0.4% on the quarter, but from now on, it is certain to head south. Remittances from the Gulf collectively account for more than 30% of India’s global inflows, as the World Bank estimates that India received a record US$ 125 billion in remittances in 2024.

InterNations’ Expat Insider 2025 survey found that 18.0% of expats expressed a desire to stay in the UAE permanently, with a further 39% still undecided about their long-term plans. Some of the reasons given  were the UAE’s high quality of life, safety, security, and ease of settling. The survey, encompassing some one hundred and ninety nations, placed the UAE seventh in the list of best countries in which to live.  The survey noted that the three main motivations for relocating here were job opportunities, international recruitment, and the pursuit of a better quality of life, with the top three industries employing expats being finance, hospitality, and construction. The country was ranked the best country globally for expatriate essentials – which include housing, digital infrastructure, and administrative services – and second best for overall quality of life, along with being fourth globally for safety and security, and sixth for leisure options. Globally, the top ten best countries for expats in 2025 are: Panama, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam, China, UAE, Indonesia, Spain, and Malaysia and at the other end of the spectrum were Kuwait, Türkiye, South Korea, Finland, Germany, the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and Italy.

New guidelines, issued by the Dubai Corporation for Consumer Protection and Fair Trade, aim to ensure that online food delivery platforms eliminate hidden fees and improve transparency, to protect consumers and raise industry standards. It requires online food delivery companies to clearly break down all delivery and service charges, as well as forbidding “hidden” fees. Its publication was to ensure online food delivery companies remain transparent and fair in their platforms, maintain high business standards, and attract further investment in the online food delivery sector. The general transparency requirements are as follows:

• food delivery platforms must use plain, clear and easily understood language
• platforms must clearly display all disclosures that are easily noticeable
• disclosures must be presented equally, no matter the platform versions (web, mobile apps, tablets) and operating systems (iOS, Android)
• information cannot be hidden or left out, which can affect the customer’s choices

UK media is reporting that dnata is looking at divesting four of its UK-based leisure businesses, including:

Netflights                                 sells tailor-made holidays into the travel trade         

Travel Republic                     one of UK’s leading online travel agents

Gold Medal                              offers a range of budget flights, package holidays and car hire

Travel Republic                     offers premium package holidays

Collectively, the four businesses account for transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually. A statement from a dnata Travel Group spokesperson commented that “dnata Travel Group has started a process to explore strategic options for four UK-based leisure brands.     .    .  The move is part of a broader strategic effort to align the group’s portfolio with its long-term business priorities and evolving market dynamics. No decisions have been made regarding the future ownership structure of the businesses”

There is bound to be a last-minute rush for many Dubai-based companies, with a 31 December reporting period, with press reports that the last-minute dash to prepare their tax returns, by 30 September, who are getting hit with significant fees hikes from auditors taking on these projects. Because this will be many companies’ first tax return, there will be increased reliance on additional help from auditors and tax consultants and there is an obvious imbalance between supply and demand which will result in an inevitable fee hike. According to the FTA, businesses must pay the corporate tax within a period not exceeding nine months from the end of the Tax Period for each registrant. There is a US$ 2.7k penalty for non-compliance.

On 01 August 2015, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. The approved fuel prices by the Ministry of Energy are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. After two months of almost unchanged prices, September saw marginal monthly increases for petrol whilst diesel prices headed 5.6% higher. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for September is as follows:

Super 98     US$ 0.736 from US$ 0.736     in Sep       flat    3.1% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.703 from US$ 0.703      in Sep      flat    2.8% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.684 from US$ 0.684      in Sep      flat    2.9% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.717 from US$ 0.725      in Sep    down   0.7% YTD US$ 0.730

Majid Al Futtaim released H1 figures showing a 6.3% downturn in net profit at US$ 409 million, and increases in revenue and EBITDA – by 3.0% to US$ 4.71 billion and by 9.0% to US$ 627 million. The MAF Group, currently on a US$ 1.36 billion investment at its flagship Mall of the Emirates, had a US$ 300 million in free cash flow and had reduced its net debt to US$ 3.65 billion, which came through ‘effective capital management and allocation’. At the end of 30 June, total assets were valued at US$ 19.18 billion, with a net debt-to-equity improving by 38% on the year.

Following Board approval, Tecom Group has approved capex of US$ 436 million to acquire one hundred and thirty-eight land plots, spanning thirty-three million sq ft, from Dubai Holding Asset Management. This purchase, raising the Group’s land portfolio to over two hundred and nine million sq ft, will see more manufacturing and logistics companies beginning operations in Dubai Industrial City; this location is currently operating at an occupancy level of 99%. Abdulla Belhoul, Chief Executive Officer of Tecom Group PJSC commented that “this strategic acquisition reaffirms Dubai Industrial City’s significant role in advancing the country’s manufacturing sector and serving growing demand from existing and new customers”. This latest expansion, engineered by the Group’s subsidiary, Dubai Industrial City LLC, follows Tecom Group’s acquisition of 13.9 million sq ft of land in Dubai Industrial City last year, which has been fully leased out to leading customers across six vital sectors served by the district, such as F&B, base metals and transport. H1 financials saw 21% and 22% rises in the Group’s revenue and net profit to US$ 381 million and US$ 201 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 01 September on 6,064 points, and having shed one hundred and forty-two points (2.3%), the previous four weeks, fell seventy-five points (1.2%), to close the shortened trading week, (in observance of the Prophet Muhammad’s (PBUH) birthday), on 5,989 points, by Thursday 04 September 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 lower the previous week, shed US$ 0.01 to close on US$ 3.91 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.88, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.46 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.80, US$ 2.57 and US$ 0.45. On 04 September, trading was at one hundred and thirty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-two million dollars, compared to fifty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and sixty-three million dollars on 29 August 2025.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 August at 6,064, was 2,001 points (49.2%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.76, to close on 31 August at US$ 3.92. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$  0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed August 2025 at US$ 0.75, US$ 6.88, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.46.  

By 05 September 2025, Brent, US$ 3.62 higher (5.6%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 3.05 (4.5%) to close on US$ 65.13. Gold, US$ 17 (5.0%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 156 (4.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,654 on 05 September.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 5.60 (7.5%), to close 31 August 2025 on US$ 69.21. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of August, the yellow metal had gained US$ 679 (27.4%) and was trading at US$ 3,343.

Strong cargo and passenger numbers were recorded in July. IATA showed that total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, rose by 5.5%, on the year (6.0% for international operations), with capacity 3.9% higher. Most trade lanes posted significant growth, with the main exception being Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0%, driven by the expiry of the US de minimis exemptions on small shipments. This fall in transactions has been partly offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August returns will give a clearer indication on the tariff impact. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted that ‘’while much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked twenty-nine months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July”. Two factors that had an impact on these returns were the global goods trade growing 3.1% on the year and the
jet fuel price was 9.1% lower – having been below 2024 levels so far this year. ME carriers saw a 2.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in July, as capacity increased by 5.9% year-on-year.

July total global passenger demand was 4.0% higher on the year, with total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, was up 4.4% year-on-year, and load factor  0.4% lower at 85.5%, compared to July 2024. When comparing international and domestic demand figures, the former is well ahead with an increase of 5.3%, capacity – 5.8% and load factor – 85.6%, compared to 1.9%, 2.4% and 85.2%. (“RPK” stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometres, a key metric in the aviation industry that measures the volume of passenger traffic by multiplying the number of paying passengers by the distance. they travelled). International RPK growth reached 5.3% in July year-on-year, but load factors fell in all regions except Africa. Domestic RPK rose 1.9% over July 2024. and load factor fell by 0.4 ppt to 85.2% on the back of a 2.4% capacity expansion. There was a 5.3% hike for ME carriers, with capacity up 5.6%, whilst the load factor was 0.2% lower at 84.1%.

His dismissal adds him to a growing list of top executives forced to resign following investigations into their relationships with colleagues, including BP’s former CEO Bernard Looney, Andy Byron, the CEO of Astronomer, and McDonald’s CEO Steve Easterbrook. Its CEO, Laurent Freixe, has been dismissed after an investigation into an undisclosed “romantic relationship”; it is reported that the lady involved was promoted. Freixe, who spent thirty-nine years with Nestle, will receive no exit package. The embattled Swiss food giant, struggling from the Trump tariffs, years of underperformance, slowing sales and worsening investor confidence, needs his replacement, Nespresso chief Philipp Navratil, to hit the ground running.  He will have to lift the top line numbers, reduce costs, cut payroll and focus more on emerging markets. Earlier in the year, Paul Bulcke announced he would step down next year. Over the last five years, the Swiss behemoth has seen its share value cut by more than a third and during the twelve months, when Freixe was in charge, Nestle’s market cap slipped 17%.

It appears that the pension trust of German automaker Mercedes-Benz has sold its 3.8% stake in Japan’s Nissan Motor for US$ 325 million. They were sold at a 5.98% discount. The struggling Japanese carmaker, whose share value fell 6.0% on the news, had booked a US$ 535 million loss in Q2. Investors are concerned that Nissan is failing in its strategy to turn the company’s fortune for the better and needs to improve sales in its key markets of the US and China.

A Washington US District Judge has decided that Google will not have to divest its Chrome browser, whilst ordering the tech giant to share data with rivals to open up competition in online search. It also allows Google to keep making lucrative payments to Apple that antitrust enforcers said froze out search rivals.  This rare court victory for the industry saw Google parent Alphabet’s shares up 7.2% in extended trading on Tuesday, whilst Apple shares were 3.0% to the good. Judge Amit Mehta also ruled Google could keep its Android operating system, which together with Chrome help drive Google’s market-dominating online advertising business. Last year, the same judge ruled that Google held an illegal monopoly in online search and related advertising.  

A decade after consolidating, Kraft Heinz is to split into two separate companies, expected to be completed in H2 2026, which will then see:

Global Taste Elevation Co – managing high-demand, flagship brands like Heinz ketchup, Kraft Mac & Cheese, and Philadelphia cream cheese

North American Grocery Co – overseeing longer-standing but slower-growing brands such as Oscar Mayer, Maxwell House coffee, Kraft Singles, and Lunchables

The brands themselves are expected to remain available in stores worldwide. Moody’s has placed Kraft Heinz’s credit rating under review, assessing how the split might impact the companies’ debt and financial stability. The current company employs 36k but there will be job losses during the transition. Kraft Heinz is not the only Group to have carried out divestments – others include Kellogg, Mars and Unilever.

Reports indicate that the McLaren Group’s owners – Bahrain’s SWF, Mumtalakat, and Abu Dhabi-based automotive investment group CYVN Holdings – are to acquire the remaining 30% stake, they do not own. The minority stakeholders include MSP Sports Capital, Ares Investment Management, UBS O’Connor and a number of other small shareholders. This would value the McLaren Formula One team at over US$ 4.06 billion in a deal that will reap a welcome return for the investors, including MSP Sports Capital, who bought an initial 15% stake in McLaren Racing, valuing a post-money valuation of US$ 758 million, in 2020, which helped bail out its parent company during the pandemic. There is no doubt that McLaren Racing has recovered well from the dismal days of five years ago and only last weekend McLaren driver Oscar Piastri won the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, giving the race team favourite status to win this year’s F1 constructors’ championship. (“RPK” stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometres, a key metric in the aviation industry that measures the volume of passenger traffic by multiplying the number of paying passengers by the distance they travelled).

China’s August purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing sector nudged 0.1 higher to 49.4. Manufacturing production has picked up pace rising 0.3 to 50.8 – its fourth consecutive month of expansion. On the demand side, the sub-index for new orders was up 0.1, to 49.5, up from 49.4, but was still in negative territory. Some key sectors moved northwards in positive territory – high-tech manufacturing, at 51.9, and equipment manufacturing at 50.5. A more positive market outlook was indicated by the production and business activity expectations 1.1 higher to 53.7.

In August, the Republic of Korea’s exports grew 1.3%, on the year, attributable to strong demand for semiconductors, and for the third consecutive month, outbound shipments were  valued at US$ 58.4 billion. With imports decreasing 4.0%, on the year, to US$ 51.89 billion, there was a trade surplus of US$ 6.51 billion.

The number of July foreign tourists arriving in Republic of Korea jumped 23% on the year, with over 1.73 million visitors – and up 119.7%, compared to the pre-pandemic tally in July 2019. 52.0% of the visitors originated from China and Japan, with totals of 34.7% and 17.3%. The number of H1 foreign visitors between January and July rose 15.9% on the year to 10.56 million. The number of South Koreans travelling abroad during the first seven months of this year reached seventeen million, representing 96.3% of the figure recorded during the same period in 2019.

Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an order to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile  imports, (down 12.5% to 15.0%), and other products that were announced in July. The deal will ensure that Japan will always receive the lowest tariff rate on chips and pharmaceuticals of all the pacts negotiated by Washington. It also confirms an agreement for US$ 550 billion of Japanese investment in US projects, there would be no tariffs on commercial planes and parts and that the 15% levy on Japanese imports agreed in July would not be stacked on top of those already subject to higher tariffs, such as beef. However, items previously subject to tariffs below 15% would be adjusted to 15%.

On the other side of the coin, Japan will be “working toward an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of United States rice procurements… and purchases of United States agricultural goods, including corn, soybeans, fertiliser, bioethanol (including for sustainable aviation fuel)” and other US products totalling US$ 8 billion per year. It will also acquire one hundred Boeing planes and push defence spending 21.4% higher to an annual US$ 17.0 billion.

Rival exporter South Korea is still waiting on an executive order covering a similar trade agreement with the US, including a 15% tariff on US imports from automakers like Hyundai and Kia, down from 25%. 

The Japanese government confirmed its previous commitment to invest US$ 550 billion in the US in projects that will be selected by the US government; the financing will come in the form of equity, loans and guarantees from Japan’s government-owned banks. Last year, bilateral trade came in at around US$ 230 billion, with Japan’s trade surplus standing at US$ 70 billion.

Since the start of sanctions imposed by western powers on Russia, because of its role in the war with Ukraine, that country has had various agreements in place to supply natural gas to China. Now a deal to supply more natural gas to China has been signed but pricing has yet to be agreed for one of the world’s most expensive gas projects, Power of Siberia 2 – a sign that China’s President Xi Jinping could be holding out for bigger discounts.  It is estimated that the new pipeline is capable of delivering fifty billion cu mt per year to China, through Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal. Alexei Miller, the CEO of Gazprom, noted that “today, a legally binding memorandum was signed on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and the Soyuz Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia”. Despite the relevant leaders being in Beijing earlier in the week, it is still not known who will build or finance the project. It is estimated that China is Russia’s biggest trading partner, the biggest purchaser of Russian crude and Russian gas, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian coal and the third-biggest purchaser of Russian LNG.

To try and lessen the impact that Trump 50% tariffs will have on the Indian economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items ranging from soaps to small cars to spur domestic demand. The Indian GST panel has approved lowering taxes, on the so-called common man items, and simplifying their structure, (from four rates of between 12% and 28% to two of 5% and 18%). Examples include toothpaste and shampoo dropping from 18% to 5%, small cars, air conditioners, and televisions from 28% to 18% and individual life insurance policies and health insurance being exempt. A higher 40% rate has been levied on “super luxury” and “sin” goods such as cigarettes, cars with engine capacity exceeding 1500 cc, and carbonated beverages,

Late last week, in a 7-4 decision, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that most of Trump tariffs are illegal, but the ruling is stayed until 14 October. The latest development will inevitably result in the case going to the nine-man Supreme Court, which has six Republican appointees, including thee selected by Trump himself. However, it is true that recent history has seen that court would have to decide whether the tariffs are not another example of overreach. The case is now almost certain to head to the Supreme Court, which has in recent years taken a sceptical view toward presidents who try to implement sweeping new policies that are not directly authorised by Congress. Joe Biden did try unsuccessfully to limit greenhouse gas emissions by power plants and to forgive student loan debt for millions of Americans. The court could of course decide that his actions were backed by the law or within presidential authority. In the current case, the court ruled that the tariffs were “invalid as contrary to law”, and that setting levies were  “a core Congressional power”, with Trump having argued that they were valid, citing that a trade imbalance was harmful to US national security, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the President the power to act against “unusual and extraordinary” threats.

According to Nationwide, August year-on-year house prices dipped 0.3% on the month to 2.1%, with the average house valued at US$ 366k, as house prices slipped by 0.1% on the month. UK’s largest building society noted that, “the relatively subdued pace of house price growth is perhaps understandable, given that affordability remains stretched relative to long-term norms. House prices are still high compared to household incomes, making raising a deposit challenging for prospective buyers, especially given the intense cost of living pressures in recent years.” Meanwhile, the Halifax posted that August UK house prices headed north for the third consecutive month to a new record high – by 0.3% on the month, 2.2% on the year – to US$ 403k. It noted that the annual rate had dipped by 0.3% to 2.2% from July’s 2.5%. The country’s housing market had shown a marked rise in prices in Q1, (when buyers sought to take advantage of the final months of a tax break on property purchases), but since then prices have eased. Take your pick!

Data from property search website Rightmove indicates that UK average housing rents have jumped 2.9%, on the year, (and 46.0% from the beginning of the pandemic), to US$ 2.12k per calendar month. The sector has been hit by the whammy of a shortage of available homes, which could be exacerbated by looming changes to taxes and laws for landlords. 

Another body blow for the UK Chancellor, with news that yields on thirty-year debt rose by 0.06% to top 5.70% – its highest level since 1998!  This means that the UK government will have to pay a premium on any new debt it takes on board, at a time when Rachel Reeves is struggling to pull in the public finances but now having to pay higher interest charges. The initial reaction was the sell off of sterling, seeing its worst day in three months. The latest gilt auction attracted record investor interest for a ten-year bond, with the government having to pay a premium of 0.082% over the existing benchmark to raise US$ 18.83 billion in debt. If the Treasury does not soon come up with a workable scheme to control spending in an environment of a weak sterling and rising borrowing costs and a future of certain tax increase at the November budget which would have a negative impact on economic growth.

On Tuesday, sterling managed to shed 2.17% to US$ 1.336 but it is still well above its level of US$ 1.31 posted in early September 2024, and higher than the vast majority of the past year. The fall was replicated with the euro too. The government’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), takes borrowing costs into account when seeing whether the Chancellor is meeting her self-imposed fiscal rules. Since the start of her ‘reign’, she set out two rules on government borrowing, which she has repeatedly said are “non-negotiable”:

• day-to-day government costs will be paid for by tax income, rather than borrowing by 2029-30
• to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament in 2029-30

It is estimated that she is under pressure because her financial buffer to stick to these rules is a relatively meagre US$ 13.45 billion, and she may have to raise taxes in her long-awaited November budget. The fact that the Chancellor Reeves will have to raise up to US$ 38.0 billion in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules, and to maintain her buffer. That being the case, it is all but inevitable that she will be knocking on the doors of banks and households, at a time when investors are running scared that the government is losing its grip on the public finances. Having promised not to raise taxes, such as income tax, VAT or national insurance on “working people”, she is obviously limited in deciding what to tax. Three possibilities are banks, gambling and freezing income tax thresholds – the latter works that over time, with wages rising, some taxpayers will be dragged into a higher tax rate boosting public revenue. There had also been reports that Reeves is considering reforming property taxes, but recent events, involving the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Housing, may see her leaving that sector well alone. She will also be relieved to see that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned because she may have been in line for a letter from Kier Starmer.

Following the Labour Party’s general election success, Angela Rayner was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister of the UK and Secretary State for Housing, Communities and Local Government. In March 2024, there was an allegation, by a Tory grandee, that Rayner had misled tax officials in the sale of her council house in 2015, with Rayner saying that she had done nothing wrong, and declined to publish her tax records or tax advice. Ultimately, HMRC confirmed that she was in the clear. In June 2024, Labour life peer, Baron Alli had given Rayner gifts worth US$ 5k of clothes – she later announced she would no longer accept clothes from donors. Later in the year, it was reported that she faced an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner over the use of Baron Alli’s US$ 2.5 million New York apartment. Late last month, The Daily Telegraph had reported that she avoided nearly US$ 54k in stamp duty when buying a second home after telling tax authorities it was her main home.

In August 2025, it was reported that Rayner had removed her name from the deeds of her constituency residence in Ashton-under-Lyne weeks before purchasing her US$ 1.07 million seafront flat in Hove in May 2025, reportedly reducing her stamp duty liability on the purchase by US$ 54k. There are also reports that she split the ownership of her US$ 870k constituency home with a trust administered by law firm Shoosmiths. However, for Council Tax purposes the Ashton-under-Lyne home continued to be her primary residence meaning the Hove flat was the only property she owned. However, Ms Rayner also previously indicated the Greater Manchester home remained her primary residence, according to the Daily Telegraph, saving some US$ 2.7k in council tax on her grace and favour home in central London at Admiralty House.

At the beginning of the week, the Rayner saga hit newspaper headlines, with reports that she had determined that both her private homes, (a family residence in Ashton under Lyne and an apartment in Hove acquired last May), qualified for the status, but for different levies. It is reported that she had advised Brighton & Hove council that her new flat was her second property for council tax purposes.  On Monday, a Downing Street spokesman commented that there was a court order which restricted her from providing further information over her tax affairs “which she’s urgently working on rectifying in the interests of public transparency”, but rejected that the newly appointed Darren Jones, asnew ministerial role of chief secretary to the prime minister, would be a de facto deputy prime minister.

At her behest, the court order was lifted on Tuesday and on Wednesday she was interviewed by Sky News’ Beth Rigby where she admitted that she had not paid enough tax on her home in Hove but had followed legal advice, saying “I acknowledge that due to my reliance on advice from lawyers which did not properly take account of these provisions, I did not pay the appropriate stamp duty at the time of the purchase. I deeply regret the error that has been made. I am committed to resolving this matter fully and providing the transparency that public service demands.” After that recording, Verrico & Associates confirmed that “we acted for Ms Rayner when she purchased the flat in Hove. We did not and never have given tax or trust advice. It’s something we always refer our clients to an accountant or tax expert for. The stamp duty for the Hove flat was calculated using HMRC’s own online calculator, based on the figures and the information provided by Ms Rayner. That’s what we used, and it told us we had to pay GBP 30k, (US$ 40k), based on the information provided to us. We believe that we did everything correctly and in good faith. Everything was exactly as it should be.”

Rayner said she had contacted HMRC to work out the tax she needed to pay and referred herself for investigation by the PM’s standards adviser. Her admission of an extra tax liability was damaging for the deputy prime minister, who was prominent in attacking the conduct of Tory ministers before Labour took office last year.

By then, it was for Sir Laurie Magnus, the adviser on ministerial standards, to “establish all the facts” about whether she was given incorrect advice, as she says, if she acted properly or not, and if there was a case for her to answer. He had to assess whether Ms Rayner had broken ministerial rules, which place an “overarching duty on ministers to comply with the law”, “behave in a way that upholds the highest standards of propriety”, and “be as open as possible” with the public. The end came quickly, and this afternoon in his letter to the prime minister, Sir Laurie said it was “deeply regrettable” that Rayner had not sought the correct tax advice, adding that if she had it would be “likely” that the higher levy would have been paid. He concluded that “the responsibility of any taxpayer for reporting their tax returns and settling their liabilities rests ultimately on themselves alone.”  It will not put this issue to bed and just as there were so many questions at the beginning of the week, by today, There Are More Questions Than Answers!