For Whom The Bell Tolls!                                    19 September 2025

Based on the figures available, Jumeirah Bay Island is the most affluent residential location in the emirate, with a mega US$ 3.56k per sq ft, well ahead of its two nearest competitors – Jumeirah Second and Umm Al Sheif – with prices of some US$ 2.04k psf.  There is a high demand for villas and low-density beachside communities, with a combination of exclusivity, limited supply, and prime waterfront, which is reflected by the popularity of other coastal locations including La Mer, Bluewater’s Island and Palm Jumeirah. With an increasing number of “new” UNHWs, mainly from the UK and Europe, arriving and foreign buyers, from the usual source markets, moving to Dubai, it has become a major destination for luxury real estate.  Premium districts retain their attraction due to strong capital values, while relatively inexpensive and mid-market zones, like Jumeirah Village Circle, are driving high transaction volumes.  The fact that there are various housing pricing points to cover the whole gamut of the population indicates that Dubai’s property market has quickly become mature, with the days of ‘flipping’, and overheating long gone.

 By the end of Q2, the average price of ready residential properties had risen by 63.9% to US$ 447 psf in the past four years since 2021 – an indicator of strong end-user and investor demand, particularly for completed inventory, but still across both villa and apartment segments. Apartments grew 70.2%, in the four years, with villas up 88.4% to US$ 519 psf. By Q2, prices for both asset types nearly aligned (US$ 519 psf), reflecting balanced demand across lifestyle preferences from apartment living to family-oriented homes.

Since 2021, quarterly transactions have exploded – from some 10k in Q2 2021 to 51k four years later in Q2 2025 – attributable to various factors including population expansion, government incentives and sustained investor confidence.  Off-plan transactions have grown eightfold to 36.18k, driven by developers’ aggressive launch pipelines and buyer appetite for flexible payment plans. In contrast, ready property sales have risen, albeit slower, to reach 15.17k in Q2 2025. This divergence underscores Dubai’s move from an almost fledgling start up to a developer-led market, where off-plan stock now captures more than 70.5% of the market – and growing. Off-plan residential prices increased 37.8%, on the four years, to US$ 508 psf in Q2 2025, being led by the apartment segment, which consistently has posted higher price points, reaching US$ 623 psf in Q2 2025. Off-plan villa prices were up 101.6% to US$ 458 psf.

On the housing front, the report by Driven Properties and Forbes considers that a notable spike in upcoming supply is expected between 2026 (136.2k units) and 2027 (122.9k units), compared to 60.2k in 2025, before tapering off significantly to just 8.1k units by 2030. This reflects a wave of projects launched during the post-Covid recovery cycle, many of which are expected to reach completion over the next two –three years.The report considers that the housing inventory could increase by almost 320k over the next three years to 2027 does seem to be on the high side, bearing in mind that the average annual increase since the pandemic had only been around 45k. The last DSC official figures, in 2023, showed that there were 661.5k apartments and 152.0k villas/townhouses, in the emirate, to give a total number of residential units at 813.5k. The general consensus seems to point to an additional 47k added in 2024 that would bring the total to 860.5k and that a further 60.5k will be added this year so that at the end of this year, there will be 921k housing units.  This blog uses a 19:81, villa:apartment ratio and a 5.3:4.1, villa:apartment occupancy which would see 175k villas/townhouses, (927.5k occupants), and 746k apartments (3.057 million occupants) by the end of 2025; this indicates 921k housing units sheltering 3.984 million. By the end of the year,Dubai’s population is expected to grow by 207k, (5.36%), from a 01 January 2025 base of 3.864 million to 4.071 million, (4.002 million – 31 August 2025).  On this basis, the supply/demand equation seems to be in almost equilibrium, with a ratio of 0.978:1.000, (3.984m:4.071m).

Moving forward, and assuming an annual 6.0% hike in population numbers, there will be 4.574 million living in Dubai by the end of 2027. If the housing inventory were to increase by 259.1k (49.2k villas/townhouses and 209.9k apartments), the number of occupants will increase by 260.76k and 860.59, to 1.121 million. The 2026 total for villas/townhouses will stand at 224.2k (175.0k+49.2k), and for apartments, 955.9k, (746k+209.9k), bringing the total to 1,180.1 million units, with villas housing 1.188 million and apartments 3.919 million. This would normally indicate a saturated market where supply, (to house 5.107 million) is greater than demand (of 4.574 million) equates to 1.000:0.896. if a more conservative figure, for the number of units to be built, is taken then the result will be the other way round. Say 200.0k units are built, that will see 38k villas/townhouses and 162k apartments being added to the portfolio, bringing the 2027 total to 1.121 million units  – 213k villas/townhouses and 908k apartments, housing 1.129 million in villas and 3.723 million in apartments – a total of 4.852 million, and a ratio of 1.000:0.943.

Taking account of a 10% reduction in the total property numbers in the first example, the number of units available will be 201.8k (villas) and 860.3k (apartments) – 1.062 million units – housing 1.069 million and 3.527 million or 4.596 million; this gives a ratio of 1.005:1.000, (4.596m:4.574m), almost equilibrium. Taking account of a 10% reduction in the total property numbers in the second example, the number of units available will be 191.7k (villas) and 817.2k (apartments) – 1.009 million units – housing 1.016 million and 3.350 million or 4.366 million; this gives a ratio of 1.000:1.048, (4.366m:4.574m), showing that demand will have outpaced supply.

However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), for a gamut of reasons such as Airbnb, (estimated to be over 30k), second homes, holiday homes, units being upgraded etc, then there is an obvious current inventory shortage. Furthermore, there seems to be a trend that the average number in one residential unit is actually dropping.

This blog does agree with the Driven Properties and Forbes report that the recent Fitch Ratings study that projected a potential 10% – 15% price correction in 2026, is perhaps a little overstated citing the following key issues: 

• surging population growth, fuelled by rising expatriate inflows, long-term visa reforms, and Dubai’s positioning as a global lifestyle destination
• delayed handovers and phased project deliveries, which typically stretch actual supply absorption beyond the headline launch year
• increased labour force participation, especially in white-collar sectors like finance, tech, and professional services, which translates into stronger housing demand
• supportive macroeconomic fundamentals, such as GDP growth, employment recovery, and continued business formation, which underpin end-user and investor confidence

With the past two quarters, indicating prices of above US$ 531 psf, it seems that the Dubai commercial sector is showing sustained momentum and consistency. The latest report from Driven Properties and Forbes showed that, over the past four years the local office market segment has recorded an average increase of 160.3% to US$ 545 psf, since June 2021 with occupancy rates climbing from 74.2% to 91.0% over the same period. With the ongoing drivers of economic diversification, regulatory transparency, and business-friendly policies, this upward trend is set to continue in the medium term, with the caveat that the supply chain will meet future demand. Currently, the double whammy of rising occupancy, almost across the board, has led to ever increasing capital values and rents, and near-saturation in free zones, that highlights a robust and maturing office market in Dubai.

This week, Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed issued Resolution No (73) of 2025 appointing Abdullah Ahmed Mohammed Saleh Al Shehi as Chief Executive Officer of the Real Estate Regulatory Agency. He was transferred from his previous role at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Housing Establishment.

Having attracted a record 10.5 million visitors during its last season, Global Village has announced that its “most spectacular” edition  will open on 15  October until 10 May 2026; because this will be thirtieth anniversary for the event, there will be extra surprises in addition to the usual offerings of international pavilions, food from across the globe, cultural performances, shopping, rides, and live entertainment. Last season, ticket prices ranged between US$ 7 – US$ 8, with free admission for children under three, seniors above sixty-five, and people of determination; no prices have yet been released. The 2024 event showcased thirty themed pavilions, representing various countries along with displays of their traditional crafts, cuisines, cultural performances, and products. Visitors could be fed from more than two hundred dining options and further entertained by more than two hundred rides and attractions.

It has to be Dubai when a local coffee shop becomes a Guinness World record holder by selling the most expensive global cup of coffee. Roasters’ flagship location on Boulevard Downtown was the venue that saw a cup of coffee selling for US$ 681, (AED 2.5k), last Saturday 13 September. The brand, which originated in Dubai, and now has 11 branches across the UAE, is known among coffee enthusiasts for its focus on high-quality beans and expert brewing techniques. The record-setting coffee was a hand-poured V60 brew made with extremely rare Panamanian Geisha beans from the Esmeralda farm, which are prized for their floral scent and tropical fruit notes. The coffee was served alongside a tiramisu, chocolate ice cream, and a special chocolate piece, all infused with the same Geisha beans.

Dubai International Chamber has said that 58% of the new multinational companies it attracted in H1, emanated from Asia, and that was higher than the remaining four source markets combined – Europe, the ME and the Commonwealth of Independent States, Africa and the Americas – with totals of 16.1%, 12.9%, 6.5% and 6.5%. Asia also dominated in the SMEs’ section garnishing 49.1% of the total new small and medium-sized enterprises joining the Chamber in H1. The four remaining markets – the ME and the CIS, witnessed notable growth, accounted for 22.3%, followed by Africa – 11.6%, Europe – 9.8%, and the Americas – 7.1%. DIC noted that in H1, it had registered an annual 138% growth in the total number of companies it attracted to Dubai.

The latest 30 June report from the Central Bank of the UAE indicates that the rate of non-performing loans to total loans has halved to 3.4%, over the past two years,– a sure sign of the system’s resilience and the country’s strong financial health. Value-wise, NPLs fell 31.6% to US$ 24.80 billion, as there was a 44.0% reduction in troubled loans. Over the period, provisions covering these loans also eased, with the coverage ratio dipping by 3.3% to 57.3% on the quarter, with the total value of provisions declining 8.8% to US$ 14.20 billion. A rise in profitability for the banking sectors is in line with a decline in bad loans – in Q1, the banking sector posted a total net income after tax of US$ 22.21 billion – 4.4% higher on the year. By the end of June, liquid assets had risen by 17.7%, to US$ 1.34 trillion, whilst they had dipped, as a total of total assets, by 2.0%. The overall capital adequacy ratio stood at 17.3%, far exceeding the Basel III minimum requirement of 13.0%.

Yesterday, and in line with the US rate cut, The Central Bank of the UAE decided to reduce the Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility by 0.25% to 4.15%, with immediate effect. The central bank also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at 0.50% over the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities.

Over the past ten months, Carrefour has exited four markets – Jordan, (November 2024), Oman, (January 2025), Bahrain, (14 September 2025), and Kuwait (16 September 2025). Simultaneously, Majid Al Futtaim, which holds exclusive rights to operate Carrefour in the region, has appeared to expand the operations of its own grocery brand, HyperMax. There have been no real announcements around these closures only thanking customers for their past support and apologies for any inconvenience. MAF had introduced the French retailer to the region thirty years ago in 1995. The Dubai-based behemoth holds the exclusive rights to operate Carrefour under its own name and “M” logo in countries across the ME, Africa, and Asia, including Bahrain, Egypt, Georgia, Iraq, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Uganda. In May 2025, it was estimated that there was a network of three hundred and ninety Carrefour stores, across twelve markets, serving over 700k customers daily. Earlier in the year, MAF posted that its grocery retail brand had forty-four locations in Jordan and Oman, and after its Bahrain exit announced six HyperMax stores across the Gulf country. MAF has confirmed that are no immediate plans to expand HyperMax other than the current four locations. According to MAF’s CEO of Retail, Günther Helm, there is no immediate plan to shut down Carrefour in the UAE.

Yesterday, Emaar Properties confirmed that it was ‘no longer considering the sale” of a stake in its Indian subsidiary, after earlier in the year being in discussions with Adani Group and others about selling its Indian subsidiary The statement came about after a FT report that Emaar was looking at buying firms in the US, India, and China, with the Dubai conglomerate clarifying the situation, via a post, on the DFM website. Last year, it posted a 60.0% hike in revenue to US$ 331 million but posted a US$ 15 million deficit.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 15 September, on 6,031 points, and having gained forty-two points (0.7%), the previous week, shed eight points (0.1%), to close the week on 6,023 points, by 19 September 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.01 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.09 to close on US$ 3.83 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.92, US$ 2.69 and US$ 0.45 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 7.03, US$ 2.61 and US$ 0.45. On 19 September, trading was at two hundred and fifty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and seventy million dollars, compared to one hundred and ninety-one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-nine million dollars, on 12 September 2025.

By 19 September 2025, Brent, US$ 1.86 higher (2.8%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.22 (0.3%) to close on US$ 66.77. Gold, US$ 200 (5.9%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 2 (0.1%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,679 on 19 September. Silver was trading at US$ 43.34 – US$ 0.66 (1.5%) higher on the week.

Nvidia, seeking to “support the US administration as it tried to prop up the only American company able to produce chips in the US”, has reported that it will acquire about 4% of Intel, paying some US$ 5.0 billion for the struggling chip company; last month, the US government became a 10% shareholder. The deal will see a partnership to make personal computer and data centre chips, as demand for AI continues to surge and companies seek to power massive data centres. One of the main drivers behind Nividia’s move was to diversify some production away from other competitors, including Taiwan’s TSMC. On the news, Intel stock shot up 25%, having been languishing around the US$ 100 billion mark, whilst the world’s richest company’s market cap rose a ‘modest’ 3% but still well into the US$ 4.0 trillion market cap level.

There are thirty members of NATO including:

Albania            Belgium           Bulgaria           Canada            Croatia            Czech Republic Denmark        Estonia            Finland            France             Germany         Greece         Hungary   Iceland            Italy                 Latvia              Lithuania        Luxembourg Montenegro     Netherlands     N Macedonia   Norway           Poland             Portugal     Romania    Slovakia          Slovenia,          Turkey             UK                   USA

Earlier in the week Donald Trump sent a blunt message to all NATO members urging them not to buy Russian oil and also to impose major sanctions on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. He wrote, “I am ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia”, as well as proposing that NATO, as a group, place high tariff levels, (of between 50% – 100%) on China, to weaken its economic grip over Russia.The President has already imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing its continued imports of Russian oil, but has not taken similar action against China.

There are reports of a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to US-controlled ownership, with US and Chinese officials saying this was the case. The popular Chinese app, with one hundred and seventy million users in the US, was the subject of longstanding discussions after the Biden administration threatened to ban it in the country unless it was 100% acquired by a US interest.  After a Madrid meeting, the fourth such meeting in four months, on 17 September, between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese negotiators, a deadline was drawn up, with a ninety-day extension to allow the deal to be finalised. Bessent confirmed that when commercial terms of the deal are revealed, it will preserve cultural aspects of TikTok, including Chinese characteristics of the app, that Chinese negotiators care about. Last year, a Republican-controlled Congress passed legislation forcing this move, brought about by fears of sensitive data being accessed by Chinese authorities and Beijing spying on Americans via the app.

Touted to be one of the richest banks in the world, ANZ Banking Group has angered the Finance Sector Union by announcing plans to slash 11%, (3.5k), of its workforce and to cut back on contracted consultants and other third parties, totalling another 1k, in a major shift in business priorities This process will be finalised by September 2026. The FSU is to take the case to the Fair Work Commission, declaring the job losses as a betrayal by ANZ, whilst declaring them as ‘unhinged reckless, unnecessary and driven by pure greed”. The bank, which posted a 12% boost in H1 cash profit to US$ 2.36 billion, defended the payroll cuts by saying that the move aims to simplify the bank in order to strengthen focus on its priorities. The cost of the restructure has been put at US$ 372 million which will impact H1’s (ending 31 March 2026) pre-tax profit.

The Republic of Korea has seen its Q2’s overseas direct investment fall 13.4% to US$ 14.15 billion. Sector-wise, investments in overseas financial and insurance industries rose 18.9% on the year to $6.63 billion, whilst investments in the overseas manufacturing sector, headed in the other direction falling 9.1% to US$ 3.53 billion. The three leading areas that benefitted most from the country’s overseas investment were North America, Asia and Europe with totals of US$ 5.54 billion, US$ 3.17 billion and US$ 3.11 billion.

Zambian farmers have filed a US$ 80 billion lawsuit, accusing two Chinese-linked firms, Sino Metals Leach Zambia and NFC Africa Mining, of an “ecological catastrophe” caused by the collapse of a dam that stored waste from copper mining last February. It is estimated that millions of litres of highly acidic material spilled into waterways, leading to “mass fatalities” among fish, making water undrinkable and destroying crops, and impacted 300k households in and around Kitwe and nearby areas. Even the US embassy issued a health alert last month, raising concerns of “widespread contamination of water and soil” in the area, and ordered the immediate withdrawal of its personnel from Kitwe. It was also alleged the collapse of the tailings dam was caused by numerous factors, including engineering failures, construction flaws and operational mismanagement.

Donald Trump finally got his wish – with the Federal Reserve reducing its key lending rate by 0.25% to a range of between 4.0% – 4.25% – its lowest level in three years and its first rate cut since December 2024; the move was welcomed by many because it will bring down borrowing costs across the board. However, Fed chief Jerome Powell warned that “unemployment is still low but we’re seeing downside risks” – a change in direction from its July call that the job market was “solid”. All twelve members on the Fed’s committee, voted for a reduction, with Stephen Miran going for a 0.5% cut.

In PwC’s new Good Growth Index, which ranks UK’s cities based on metrics like house prices, earnings, healthcare facilities, crime rates, schooling etc, York has been named the UK’s most prosperous city outside London. The city, with its thriving high street, good transport links and better housing along with the quality of life, easily won the title from Edinburgh and Bristol coming second and third, followed by Exeter, Swindon, Plymouth, Southampton, Reading, Portsmouth and Norwich. An obvious north/south bias sees the likes of Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham all in the bottom ten of the fifty cities surveyed, with the last five being Luton, Milton Keynes, Huddersfield, Leicester and High Wycombe.

A Bank of America study confirmed, what some already knew, that institutional investors have been dumping the stock of UK companies at the fastest rate in twenty-one years; the survey noted that London stocks rank alongside shorting the ‘Magnificent Seven’, as one of the most contrarian trades. This month’s survey noted that equities allocations to the UK dropped to a net 20% underweight, from 2% underweight – with this slump being the biggest monthly rotation away from UK shares since 2004. Investors are running scared, driven by the triple whammy of the UK’s slowing growth, record high borrowing costs and the inevitability of more tax rises in Rachel Reeves’ November budget. Because the FTSE 100 is skewed somewhat, by a raft of defensive and defence stocks, it has performed relatively well on a European comparison, YTD, whilst the domestically focused FTSE 250 has only risen 5%, lagging global benchmarks.

The good news, in August, for the UK Chancellor was that public revenue, including tax and National Insurance receipts came in higher; the bad news being that UK borrowing was at its highest level for an August month since the Covid days. Increased spending was seen in public services, benefits, (4.2% higher at US$ 36.8 billion), and debt interest, up 29.2% at US$ 11.3 billion. Public borrowing – the difference between spend and receive – was at a disappointing high of US$ 24.28 billion. In the first five months of the fiscal year, borrowing, at US$ 113.1 billion, was 15.7% higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast for the period and 12.4% higher on the year. The end result is that Rachel Reeves will face tough choices when she formulates her late November budget as she is still insisting to meet her tax and spending rules, with speculation building that taxes will rise. Her two main rules, which she has said are “non-negotiable” are:

• not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
• to get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

There is no doubt that she will probably favour raising extra money rather than cutting public services The Chancellor, to keep her buffer against her rule of US$ 13.5 billion, will probably have to raise US$ 37.8 billion – via a range of stealth and sin tax increases, along with some smaller spending cuts. On the news, sterling shed 0.5% trading at US$ 1.349.

The ONS posted reasonable August figures for retail sales, which grew by 0.5% during the month, helped by good weather – and this despite ominous recent warnings from some retailers about cost pressures and price rises; in the month, the likes of butchers, bakers, clothing stores and online shopping all reported growth. However, the quarterly figures to August were 0.1% lower than those posted for the May quarter and overall sales volumes continued to remain below pre-pandemic readings

As expected, the BoE retained rates at 4.0%, as the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, warned “we’re not out of the woods yet” in terms of rising inflation; it has to be noted that the inflation rate is still twice the amount of the central bank’s 2.0% target. However, it did mention that it expected inflation to return to its key target but remains cautious on when it will trim borrowing costs again, noting that further cuts would depend on whether it sees evidence that price pressures were easing. Over the past twelve months the Monetary Committee has cut rates on five occasions. The headline rate of inflation held steady in August, reinforcing why the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The consumer price index had risen 3.8%, on the year, and flat month-on-month – the reading was in line with City economists’ expectations.

With a little bit of luck, the Starmer government finally has some good news on the economy, having secured some US$ 204 billion worth of US investment, which could create another 7.6k jobs. The brazen Prime Minister commented that the investments were “a testament to Britain’s economic strength and a bold signal that our country is open, ambitious, and ready to lead”. Some of the big deals included:

US$ 122.5 billion         – from Blackstone over the next decade, although how most of this money will be spent has yet to be decided. It had already announced a US$ 13.6 billion spend on data centre development. (It will also splash the cash around Europe planning to invest US$ 503.9 billion over the same time period)

US$ 30 billion              – from Google, over the next four years, with it to spend US$ 6.8 billion over the next two years to expand an existing data centre in Hertfordshire

US$ 5.31 billion           – from Prologis to invest. It had already announced a US$ 13.6 billion spend on data centre development into the UK’s life sciences and advanced manufacturing in Cambridge and Daventry  

US$ 2.0 billion             – from Palantir to invest up to US$ 2.0 billion in defence innovation and plans to create up to 350 new jobs

Furthermore, US tech company, Amentum is planning to add a further 3k jobs, whilst Boeing will convert two 737 aircraft in Birmingham for the US Air Force, which would be the first USAF aircraft built in the UK for more than fifty years. Much of the thanks for this economic surge must go to the US President that has seen a series of mega US tech firms following on his coattails and pledging to invest in the UK. However, it has not been plain sailing for Keir Starmer as there have been marked reversals, especially for domestic businesses which have been royally battered by the triple whammy of the 1.2% hike in employers’ national insurance contributions, the increase in the minimum wage and increased energy costs. The end result is that last month, the number of people on UK payrolls had fallen by an estimated 127k, and vacancies down by 119k (14%) on the year.

Meanwhile, some industries, such as steel, have been dealt a blow in recent days with a proposed deal to cut tariffs shelved, whilst several major pharmaceutical companies, such as Covid-vaccine maker AstraZenca, have also halted investment plans, including a US$ 271 million Cambridge research centre, claiming the UK was an “increasingly challenging” country to do its business in; to make matters worse, US giant Merck pulled out of a plan to invest US$ 1.36 billion after blaming successive governments for undervaluing innovative medicines – and will now, like AstraZenca, move research to the US, investing US$ 29.8 billion in R&D and manufacturing in the US over a five-year period. The move over ‘The Pond’ is a major problem for the government, with an increasing number of UK start-ups deciding that the US is better for financing, best summed up by Nick Clegg saying “not only do we import all their technology, we export all our good people and good ideas as well”. With the current state of the UK economy, it is the UK start-ups For Whom The Bell Tolls!