Mess It Up!                                           26 September 2025

Further good news, from ValuStrat, for Dubai property owners and investors, with its latest Residential Price Index, showing August capital values reaching 227.3 points – 22.1% higher on the year – and a sure indictor that the sector is still running hot. The consultancy noted that although villas still remain the main talking point, there are some apartment communities quickly catching up. A summary of their findings show that villas still lead the field.

Villas            values rose 1.8% on the month and 21.7% on the year

prices are now 190% above post-Covid lows and 76% higher than 2014 peaks

hotspots include Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah, Green Community West and The Meadows with hikes of 39.8%, 39.3%, 25.7% and 25.5% – with Mudon up by 8.8%

shows that family-oriented villa communities continue to see demand from both end-users and investors, particularly in prime waterfront and landscaped developments

Apartments     gained 1.1% month-on-month and 19.1% year-on-year

        citywide, values are still 2.5% below 2014 highs, but rising steadily

  hotspots include Dubai Silicon Oasis, The Greens, Remraam, Dubailand Residence Complex, Dubai Production City and Town Square, with annual Increases of 22.7%, 22.6%, 22.0%, 21.9%, 21.1% and 21.0% indicates that affordable, mid-market apartments, with strong connectivity, are becoming investor favourites, especially with rental yields in focus

As has been the case for some time, off plan sales continue to dominate the market, accounting for 77.8% of the August market, attributable to developers introducing more attractive and flexible payment plans. The leading communities include Business Bay, which had its highest-ever month for off-plan sales, followed by Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Investment Park and Dubai South, with off plan sales for ready homes heading in the other direction – down 20.6% on the month and 2.5%, year-on-year. JVC l accounted for 10.1% of such sales followed by Dubai Marina, Business Bay and Downtown. In the ultra-luxury market, nineteen homes were sold in August, at above the US$8.2m level, of which six went for above the US$ 16.4m level. Prime locations continue to be Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Al Barari, Emirates Hills and Dubai Hills Estate.

The latest Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025, released by UBS, points to Dubai, (rising nine places to fifth), and Madrid, (up six places to tenth), having seen the strongest bubble risk increases this year. The Swiss bank noted that “since mid-2023, real prices have climbed by double digits and are now 50% higher than five years ago, the strongest increase among all cities in the study. As a result, housing bubble risk has surged for a second consecutive year and reached an elevated level”. Globally, Miami shows the highest bubble risk, while high bubble risk also appears in Tokyo and Zurich, with elevated risks showing up in Los Angeles, Geneva, and Amsterdam. The study confirmed Hong Kong still to be the least affordable city, requiring about fourteen years of income to purchase a 650 sq ft apartment. Interestingly, it also cited that incomes were not keeping pace with home prices.

Mercer’s 2025 Middle East Housing and Schooling Report has indicated that UAE employers are tending to increase employees’ housing allowances by an average 4% because of the big increase in housing rentals. It noted that rents in most of the communities in Dubai have been rising in the range of high single-digit to double-digit over the past few years. The report also added that 52% of employers had a policy to provide the housing allowance in advance rather than on a monthly basis and found that 70% of UAE firms provided a separate housing allowance, 25% include housing within a consolidated allowance, with the remainder providing total cash packages. The consultancy also commented that “as competition for talent continues across the region, employers must ensure they have a strong employee value proposition, which includes market-competitive allowances and benefits to remain competitive”. The report also showed that 89% of UAE employers provided schooling coverage.

Meanwhile both Moody’s and Fitch are forecasting a market adjustment in the next two years after a strong four-year plus bull market, as supply catches up with demand. Both noted that residential values have surged nearly 60% between 2022 and early 2025, fuelled by foreign capital inflows, rising affluence, and record immigration supported by long-term visa reforms.  It seems that they disagree with on the supply over the next three years – with the former going for 250k and the latter by 150k. Interestingly, last week’s blog mentioned the same three year forecast, by Driven Properties and Forbes, noted “that a notable spike in upcoming supply is expected between 2026 (136.2k units) and 2027 (122.9k units), compared to 60.2k in 2025″. Take your pick! However, many would agree that an orderly adjustment is in the offing with the only queries being when and by how much? This blog would see 2028 as a likely date going forward but with a slow correction in prices – and still in positive territory.

Under the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, The Ministry of Finance has signed the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement on the Automatic Exchange of Information. It is expected that its implementation will go live in 2027, with the first exchanges of information expected a year later. The mechanism will permit the automatic exchange of tax-related information on crypto-asset activities, which will allow the federal government to ensure that is in a position to provide certainty and clarity to the crypto-asset sector while upholding the principles of global tax transparency. All stakeholders, including advisory service providers, intermediaries, traders, custodians, exchange platforms and others active in the crypto-asset sector, have been invited by the Ministry of Finance to participate in the public consultation on CARF implementation in the UAE and to share their views and recommendations on its potential impacts and areas requiring further clarification.

There was no surprise to see Dubai, once again, top the Financial Times’ fDi Markets database, for attracting greenfield foreign direct investment projects in H1; the emirate attracted six hundred and forty-three new FDI projects – the highest number ever recorded for any city globally, in a half-year period, since fDi Markets began tracking the data in 2003. It also rose two places, to number two, globally for FDI capital, and number three for jobs created. These results confirm Dubai’s position as a global hub for business and leisure and is in alignment with the goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “the strength and resilience of Dubai’s economy continues to inspire confidence among global investors in its ability to reimagine the future and unlock emerging global technological trends and sustainable sectors”.

According to the latest Global Financial Centres Index, Dubai has risen eleven places to fourth worldwide for FinTech, thus consolidating its position as the leading financial hub in the MEASA region. It also rose to eleventh on a global basis in the overall GFCI rankings and was named the world’s top financial centre expected to gain future significance. Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, said this milestone supports the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to place Dubai among the world’s top four financial hubs. Meanwhile, the DIFC posted that the number of AI, FinTech and innovation companies operating within its ecosystem is at 1.5k— the largest cluster of its kind in the region that have collectively raised over US$ 4.2 billion in investment.

In a bid to transform the ride-hailing experience across the city, a partnership of the Dubai Taxi Company, (and its strategic partner Bolt), with Kabi by Al Ghurair, along with the UAE’s homegrown ride-hailing app Zed. The end result will see the 6.2k Dubai Taxi vehicles and 3.7k Kabi taxis fully integrated into the Bolt and Zed platforms – giving customers faster access to rides, shorter wait times and improved service. This move is in line with the emirate’s aim to shift 80% of taxi trips to e-hailing, in line with the Roads and Transport Authority’s vision for smart, sustainable transport.

Dubai-listed and education provider Taaleem Holdings has signed two financing agreements with Emirates Islamic, worth US$ 264 million to fund the acquisition of a majority stake in Kids First Group, (US$ 199 million), and the construction of a new Harrow School in Abu Dhabi, (US$ 65 million). KFG runs thirty-four nurseries across the UAE and Qatar, that will allow Taaleem to run education from the ages of one to eighteen, giving it a firm foothold in a burgeoning early learning segment, adding to its existing K-12 portfolio. The second financing package will help in developing a new Harrow School in Abu Dhabi, with Taaleem holding exclusive rights to operate the Harrow brand in the GCC

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 22 September, on 6,023 points, and having shed eight points (0.1%), the previous week, lost one hundred and sixty-eight points (2.8%), to close the week on 5,855 points, by 26 September 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.09 lower the previous week, ditched US$ 0.21 to close on US$ 3.62 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.92, US$ 2.69 and US$ 0.45 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 6.65, US$ 2.56 and US$ 0.44. On 26 September, trading was at one hundred and forty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and sixty-nine million dollars, compared to two hundred and fifty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and seventy million dollars, on 19 September 2025.

By 26 September 2025, Brent, US$ 0.22 (0.3%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 3.79 (0.3%) to close on US$ 70.56. Gold, US$ 2 (0.1%) lower the previous week, gained US$  99 (2.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,778 on 26 September. Silver was trading at US$ 43.34 – US$ 2.52 (5.8%) higher on the week.

Nvidia posted that it had agreed with OpenAI – the company behind ChatGPT – to invest up to US$ 100 billion in the business going towards data centres for OpenAI’s “next-generation AI infrastructure”, as well as supplying high-performance chips needed for the processing power required by the new technology. Both firms said they were already working with a broad network of collaborators focused on making the “world’s most advanced AI infrastructure”, including working with Microsoft, Oracle, SoftBank, and Stargate. However, it appears that although the US is still the pioneering leader in this industry, China, with the likes of DeepSeek-R1, is hard on their heels. Recently, the world’s biggest company, by market cap, has been involved in some interesting investment deals such as the US$ 5 billion agreement with Intel and the US$ 2 billion planned for the UK AI sector.

Following legal action by the US Federal Trade Commission, Amazon has agreed to pay US$ 2.5 billion to resolve claims that it conned millions of people into enrolling as Prime members and then making it difficult to cancel. This marks a major victory for the FTC, yielding the largest ever civil penalty secured by the agency. 60% of this payment will go as refunds for customers who were duped into signing up for the service. As would be expected, Amazon, which did not admit or deny the allegations, said it had “always followed the law” and the settlement would allow the firm to “move forward”. The FTC alleged that “the evidence showed that Amazon used sophisticated subscription traps designed to manipulate consumers into enrolling in Prime and then made it exceedingly hard for consumers to end their subscription”. An estimated thirty-five million people in the US who were affected by such practices between June 2019, and June 2025 could be eligible for refunds, worth up to US$ 51, according to the FTC.

Faced with the triple whammy of cheaper Chinese EVs, the Trump Tariffs and a slowing global economy, there is no doubt that European car makers are facing troublesome times, none more so than Porsche. Like others, they are caught between a rock and a hard place – or between electrification and its popular petrol-powered sports cars. Last week, it warned that there would be further delays in the roll-out of its EVs, not helped by the fact that demand for EVs is flatlining. The German company also confirmed that it would also extend production of its range of combustion engine models, despite the 2035 EU deadline banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. It also posted that current models, such as the four-door Panamera and Cayenne, will continue to be available, with non-electric options ,well into the 2030s. On the news, there were 7.0% declines for both Porsche, (which confirmed that its projected profit margin would fall from 7% to 2%), and its parent company Volkswagen, saying it would spend billions to overhaul Porsche’s line-up of vehicles.

Bosch, the struggling German engineering giant, with a global 418k workforce, is set to cut thirteen thousand jobs as part of its plans to save US$ 2.92 billion resulting from a cost gap in its auto business bought on by a combination of Trump tariffs, increased competition from the likes of Tesla and BYD, as well as operating in a stagnated market. Furthermore, it will decrease investments in its production facilities and buildings as it had seen a “sharp decline in demand” for its products. In the present economic climate, it does not foresee any redundancies for its UK operations.

It seems that the Cooperative Group, one of several major UK retailers, including Marks & Spencer, to suffer from cyberattacks last April, has been left to count up the cost. Apart from a US$ 276 million dip in revenue, its H1 financials indicate an underlying loss before tax of US$ 100 million versus a profit of US$ 4 million in the same period last year. The Co-op is the seventh largest grocery chain in the UK, with a 5.4% market share. Furthermore, it has 2.4k retail stores and employs 53k and also has other business interests including funeral care, legal and insurance. Foodservice operations include third-party brands such as Costa Express and Rollover hot dogs as well as Co-op owned brands including Ever Ground Coffee, a Fairtrade coffee brand.

Another UK company involved in a cyberattack, this time last month, was Jaguar Land Rover which was forced to suspend production and shut down its IT networks. This week, it announced Its factories remain suspended until next month at the earliest, and probably not until November, leading to fears that some suppliers, mainly smaller ones who solely rely on JLR’s business, could go bust without support. The Indian Tata-owned carmaker would normally be building 1k vehicles every day at three of its UK factories, and this continued closure will directly impact thirty thousand workers and an estimated one hundred thousand more suppliers and other stakeholders. The UK close-down could be costing JLR US$ 65 million every week, with itsplants in Slovakia and China also impacted.

In the UK, the Intellectual Property Office posted that of the 259k fake toys it had already seized, (with Christmas less than three months away), 75% failed critical safety tests and 91.1% of the total were Labubu dolls These Chinese-made cheeky-looking, sharp-toothed soft toys resembling a bear, have become very popular and difficult to obtain so they are proving tb be a godsend for the fakers. However, there are reports that some of the fakes pose a potentially fatal choking hazard for children.

Two years after its parent company Bud Light brand saw Budweiser losing its number one position as the best-selling beer in the US, its new brand, Michelob Ultra, has taken over the top slot. In 2023, Anheuser-Busch’s Bud Light brand’s sales slumped, after a boycott over its work with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney and the subsequent consumer backlash. Data from Circana indicates that Michelob Ultra overtook Modelo Especial in US retail sales by volume in the year to 14 September. Constellation, which owns Modelo and Corona, has previously blamed its falling beer sales on tougher US immigration policies causing a drop in Hispanic consumers in the US. It is not only Constellation sales, (of which 50% come from Hispanic drinkers), that have been so impacted. About half of the Constellation’s sales come from Hispanic people in the US, Coca-Cola and Colgate-Palmolive have also noted a slump in North American sales from that socio-group. Overall, the US beer industry has seen slowing sales over the past four decades.

Starbucks has announced that nine hundred US jobs will be lost saying it will cut about nine hundred US jobs as well as the closure of its worst performing stores there, and some UK stores as part of a cost-saving move. Earlier in the year, it posted that it would be axing some 1.1k jobs. However, it said that it would still be opening eighty new stores in the UK, and a further one hundred and fifty across EMEA but “some stores in the UK, Switzerland and Austria will close as a result of this portfolio review”. In a letter to employees, its chief executive, Brian Niccol, said that the stores marked for closure were “unable to create the physical environment our customers and partners expect, or where we don’t see a path to financial performance”.

Yesterday, the US President signed an executive order declaring that his plan to sell Chinese-owned TikTok’s US operations to American and global investors, with his VP, JD Vance, confirming its value at US$ 14 billion. (TikTok was estimated to be worth US$ 30 billion to US$ 40 billion, without the algorithm as of April 2025). Trump delayed until 20 January enforcement of the law that bans the app unless its Chinese owners sell it amid efforts to extract TikTok’s US assets from the global platform, line up American and other investors, and win approval from the Chinese government. Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated approval of the plans, and that Michael Dell, Rupert Murdoch and “probably four or five absolutely world-class investors” would be part of the deal. Vance had earlier commented that “there was some resistance on the Chinese side, but the fundamental thing that we wanted to accomplish is that we wanted to keep TikTok operating, but we also wanted to make sure that we protected Americans’ data privacy as required by law”. One question remains unanswered – will ByteDance retain control of the algorithm?

Last month, US house sales of new homes rose 20.5%, to an annual rate of 800k – and at its fastest rate since early 2022. The much-improved figures were well above market expectation and has brought life to a previous lacklustre market. It will be good news for US builders who had been left with an oversupply of newly built residences which has been reinvigorated by a combination of price reductions, (by some 39% of homebuilders), sales incentives and easing borrowing costs. However, overall housing is still much in the doldrums, bearing in mind that new homes only account for 14% of the US home sales. Mortgage rates are still at double the pandemic rates which brings into the equation the affordability issue, exacerbated by a weakening labour market – all factors that seem to point to no immediate improvement in the short-term. Q4 will show whether August new home sales were just a spike and whether the rest of the market remains moribund.

Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, coming into force on 01 October, include a 100% levy on branded or patented drug imports, unless a company is building a factory in the US, as well as a 25% import tax on all heavy-duty trucks and 50% levies on kitchen and bathroom cabinets. The President commented that the main reason for these latest levies was “the large scale ‘FLOODING’ of these products into the United States by other outside Countries”. The impact will be felt by the likes of the UK, (which exported more than US$ 6.0 billion worth of pharma products to the US last year), Ireland, Germany, Switzerland and Japan. However, it seems that exemptions will be available to those firms producing generic drugs and to those firms building factories in the US.

Data from the Commerce Department indicated that the US Q2 economy grew faster, by 0.5% to 3.8%, than previously thought, attributable to robust consumer spending and falling imports; this followed a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. In Q2, consumer spending rose by 2.5%, on the year, from a previous estimate of 1.6%, as companies rushed in imports to get ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which chipped away at GDP. August retail sales rose 0.6%, on the month, beating expectations. These impressive returns are in contrast to Labor Department August figures which showed that just twenty-two thousand jobs had been created and that the unemployment figure had nudged 0.1% higher to 4.3%. However, this could have just been a blip as latest figures show that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to their lowest level since July.

The OECD is set to forecast that the UK will post the highest rate of inflation of all the G7 advanced economies – at 3.5% this year, driven by higher food costs; the 2026 forecast comes in at 2.7%. However, it deemed to increase its forecast slightly for UK growth this year to 1.4%, but the economy is still expected to slow, to 1.0%, next year. This is probably news that will disturb the thoughts of Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of this week’s Party conference and the upcoming November budget where she will have to pull more than a few rabbits out of her hat, as she still hopes to stick to her own rules of government. This will restrict her thinking to a combination of higher taxes, (maybe as high as US$ 40.0 billion), and/or lower public spending. How did she Mess It Up?