The Joke Is On Me! 17 October 2025

There has been a subtle shift in the surging local real estate sector, with it now being driven by end-users, to live in, rather than by investors to flip or rent out. Both Espace Real Estate’s Q3 2025 Residential Market Overview and Property Finder’s October Community Insights point to this interesting change. The former noted that, in Q3, there were 55.28k transactions, valued at US$ 37.60 billion – 18.0% higher on the year- with off plan sales accounting for 70% of the share, “reflecting investor confidence and developer innovation”, and ready properties, the balance. The improvement was noted across all divides of the sector.

The consultancy also noted that off-plan sales have increased partly due to developers’ flexible payment plans and strong project pipelines, with Dubai South, Business Bay, and Jumeirah Village Circle leading the field. It also noted, on the back of renewed launch activity, strong momentum for branded residences and waterfront projects, particularly around Dubai Creek Harbour and Palm Jebel Ali. From their survey of thirty-four communities, all but three posted upward price movements, with villas, in family-friendly communities, showing the bigger price rises. The three locations, with double-digit annual price hikes, were Emirates Living, Arabian Ranches, and Jumeirah Park. The Meadows and Jumeirah Golf Estates also saw increased transaction volumes, reflecting demand from long-term families, whilst Jumeirah Islands posted the biggest rises, with annual villa prices up 22%. Meanwhile Palm Jumeirah remained the home of having the highest villa prices, exceeding US$ 1.36k per sq ft.

This week, Sobha Realty unveiled details of ‘Sobha SkyParks, a one hundred and nine-storey, four hundred and fifty mt high, residential tower on Sheikh Zayed Road; it will be home to six hundred and eighty-four residences. The tower features a unique straight-line structure, articulated into five slender sub-towers that appear to support each other as they rise skyward. The design incorporates minimalist glass façades and aligned inset balconies, with each residence offering expansive private balconies, with expansive views of SZR, Palm Jumeirah and the Arabian Gulf.

Its outstanding feature is the four themed SkyParks, each spanning six stories and positioned at elevated heights:

• The Adventure Zone   includes family play zones and padel courts
• The Active Life            features multi-level fitness circuits and wellness terraces
• Lush Life                     offers zen gardens, reflexology paths, and glass pavilions
• LUXE LIFE                   at 350 mt, features an infinity pool deck with floating beds

Amenities include a cinema, family BBQ zone, and additional recreational facilities.

YTD Binghatti Holding Ltd has posted robust YTD figures, with almost 12k residential units sold and thirteen new project launches, valued at US$ 3.35 billion, across Dubai. 8.2k of the company’s new developments are in the sub-US$ 545k sector, with a sellable area exceeding 6.2 million sq ft. It estimates that it has been responsible for 20% of all new project completions in Dubai so far this year including Flare 1, (eight hundred and forty-four units) and Flare 2, (six hundred and thirteen apartments), and that 95% of units were sold within the first 90 days of their launches. It has an US$ 21.80 billion portfolio, comprising some 38k units, across thirty-eight locations including Downtown Dubai, Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle and Meydan.

Wadan Developments recently unveiled its second project, Seraph, following a month after the successful debut of Nuvana by Wadan on Dubai Islands. Located in the Dubai Land Residence Complex, the development is a sixteen-storey residential tower, comprising fully furnished studios as well as one- and two-bedroom apartments. Amenities include a rooftop swimming pool, fitness and wellness zones, a sauna, an ice bath, and a rooftop cinema – all designed to foster a sense of community.

Amadeus also noted Dubai’s evolution from a regional transit hub into a leading global tourism powerhouse, adding that “it’s clear that sustained investments in infrastructure, hospitality, and visitor experiences are paying off”. It also noted Dubai’s ability to attract diverse tourism markets and cater to both short- and long-stay travellers. Meanwhile, industry executives indicated that hotels and resorts, across the emirate, are seeing record booking levels, with some reporting up to an annual 30% increase in confirmed reservations.

According to the latest data from ForwardKeys, Dubai, in Q4, will post one of the world’s top three strongest performances in international visitor arrivals, alongside Tokyo and London. The study indicates that Dubai will post a 6% increase in Dubai international arrivals and that the emirate continues to attract a growing share of global travellers, accounting for approximately 2.2% of all international tourist arrivals expected worldwide in Q4. These figures will only consolidate Dubai’s position as a global tourism, leisure, and business hub. India and the UK continue to be the emirate’s largest source markets. Notable improvements were seen from China, with a 34% annual growth, to return to Dubai’s top ten market, with Germany registering a 9% increase in numbers. Leisure travellers make up the largest segment of incoming visitors, with long-stay bookings on the rise but short stays, (one–five nights), still dominate, representing 46% of all reservations, with extended stays of fourteen nights or more projected to grow by 9%.

Dubai Loop, built by Elon Musk’s Boring Company, is expected to be operational by Q2 2026. The project, developed in partnership with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority, will carry 20k passengers an hour across some of the emirate’s busiest locations. It forms part of the emirate’s broader mobility strategy to ease congestion and connect key districts through a fast, weather-resilient underground network. Phase 1 of The Loop will cover seventeen km  and include eleven underground stations.. Dubai’s Crown, Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, noted that the project “reflects Dubai’s commitment to advancing new, cutting-edge mobility solutions” Modelled on the Las Vegas Loop, the operational system utilisies Tesla vehiclesto move passengers beneath the city’s convention district. It is expected that the Dubai version will use higher capacity vehicles, be a potential autonomous operation, and incorporate integrated digital ticketing.

Emirates’ relationship with AC Milan began in 2007 and this week the deal was extended, with the airline  maintaining the club’s Principal Partner, Official Airline Partner, and Official Men’s Jersey Partner; its ‘Fly Better’ logo will continue to be seen on AC Milan’s Men’s First Team shirts and has been expanded to be worn  by the club’s Academy youth players. The agreement will also give Emirates extensive brand exposure through LED displays in stadia and training centres during all home matches, as well as exclusive digital content, fan experiences, and premium hospitality opportunities for Emirates guests and supporters. AC Milan has also expanded its international presence with a new office in Dubai to strengthen its commercial and communication strategies across the region.

flydubai has unveiled major economy class upgrades, announcing it will include complimentary meals and inflight entertainment, as from next month. Its CEO, Ghaith Al Ghaith, noted that “redefining the economy class offering across all flights represents a significant evolution in our business model, offering customers a more elevated and convenient travel journey”. Having already received nine new jets this year and with five more due before year end, it will end 2025, with a fleet of ninety-eight Boeing 737s, serving one hundred and thirty-five destinations – and growing.

Dubai Healthcare City is planning to invest US$ 354 million for its Phase 1 major expansion, with a new development plan announced. That will consolidate Dubai’s role as a top destination for global healthcare investment. The initial programme will include a LEED Platinum-certified office building, a purpose-built medical complex, and new infrastructure to support long-term growth. As expected, the initiative aligns with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 and the UAE’s Net Zero Strategy 2050. The office tower, spanning 13k sq mt across nine floors and three basement levels, will offer flexible commercial spaces built to the highest global sustainability standards; adjacent to the building will be a 5.8k sq mt medical complex, housing surgical centres, labs, diagnostics and outpatient facilities, all built for future adaptability. Construction is scheduled to begin in December 2025, with completion set for November 2027.

Last Monday, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid visited GITEX Global 2025, the world’s largest technology, AI and startup event. The five-day event, now in its forty-fifth edition, is taking place, for the last time, at the Dubai World Trade Centre and concluded today. There were more than 6.5k exhibitors, 1.8k startups, and 1.2k investors alongside governments from more than one hundred and eighty countries. This year’s edition featured the most extensive AI programme in its history, with the participation of leading global technology giants, including Alibaba Cloud, AMD, AWS, Dell, e&, G42, Google, HPE, Huawei, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Siemens, and Snowflake. Future events will be held at Dubai South’s Expo Centre, where it will be able to offer the scale and infrastructure needed for the event’s next chapter of growth. There it will introduce a new format, expanded agenda, and enhanced visitor experience to unlock new opportunities for every participant. The relocation also brings back GITEX Global and Expand North Star together, restoring the synergy between global big tech, startups, investors, and policymakers.

Dubai is expanding its flagship retail and lifestyle landmark once again, unveiling the 10k sq mt Dubai Mall Exhibition Centre becoming a premier location to host world-class events in the heart of Downtown Dubai. Featuring five multi-functional halls, and able to host up to 6k people, it is equipped with state-of-the-art infrastructure and will have an open floor plan with flexible zoning options, including main exhibition areas, demonstration zones, networking lounges, and presentation stages. The venue is ideally located with direct access to luxury retail, dining, and hospitality, managing to offer a mix of business and leisure for visitors and exhibitors alike.

At the end of the month, there will be a major three-day summit to be held at Expo City Dubai ending 29 October. In attendance will be global leaders, at the forefront of shaping cities, to discuss the future of urban living. The 2025 Asia Pacific Cities Summit and Mayors’ Forum will focus on building more liveable, efficient and sustainable urban centres in response to rapid urbanisation. Agenda items, including affordable housing, climate-resilient infrastructure, smart mobility and the role of real estate in future-ready cities, will be discussed by over one hundred and fifty mayors as well as delegates from more than three hundred cities.

In a statement shared on social media, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that, in just three years, Dubai had successfully added an entirely new sector to its economy which has turned into the world’s largest licensed virtual assets market. The Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, under the supervision of Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, continues to consolidate its position as the global leader in the virtual assets space, with trading volumes surpassing US$ 681.2 billion since its 2025 start. His son approved the Dubai Financial Sector Strategy which will roll out fifteen transformative programmes over the next three years to drive growth and shape the future of global finance. Its twin aims are to double the financial sector’s contribution to the emirate’s GDP and grow the size of assets under management.

August figures show that the UAE Central Bank’s gold reserves topped a record high of US$ 8.17 billion – a notable 32% hike in the first eight months of the year. The bank has done well, with gold having surged 56.3% from its 01 January opening of US$ 2,624, and 22.3% since 01 September. There is no doubt the central bank has hit the ball out of the park when it comes to bullion stock but it has also performed well in deposits and savings, as the value of demand deposits rose by 7.1% to US$ 323.70 billion, with time deposits exceeding US$ 286.1 billion.

The UAE President, HH Mohammed bin Zayed, has enacted a new Federal Decree-Law that will involve the Central Bank, financial institutions, and insurance operations. Under the decree, licensed banks and insurers must:

• ensure universal access to financial services
• strengthen consumer protection by centralising complaints systems
• enable early intervention when a licensed entity shows signs of financial strain

It also introduces automatic debits of fines, pending judicial rulings and mandates public disclosure of penalties on the regulator’s website. Interestingly, it also approves “increasing administration fines to be commensurate with the gravity of the violations and the volume of transactions, up to ten times the value of the violation”. Financial institutions are now required to hold adequate guarantees, when extending credit to individuals and sole proprietorships. The decree reinforces three key objectives:

• preserving currency stability
• protecting the integrity of the financial system
• ensuring prudent management of foreign exchange reserves

A global survey, carried out by Time Out, came out with some surprising results, ranking Abu Dhabi in first place as the happiest city on the planet. The ranking used various metrics including culture, nightlife, food, walkability, affordability, quality of life and happiness. The magazine has now separately released a city ranking based on the happiness part of the survey. The four countries lagging UAE’s capital were Medellin, (Colombia), Cape Town, Mexico City and Mumbai. With Brighton (eleventh) and Glasgow (twentieth), there was no place for London in the Top Twenty. Apart from the UK, four other countries had two countries in the list – China, Beijing (sixth) and Shanghai (seventh), Spain. Seville (ninth) and Valencia (nineteenth), Australia, Melbourne (tenth) and Sydney (thirteenth), and the UAE, Abu Dhabi (first) and Dubai (sixteenth).

There are reports that Emirates NBD may be interested in acquiring a controlling stake in RBL Bank, with support from the Reserve Bank of India. This would be seen as a major breakthrough in India’s efforts to attract foreign capital into its mid-sized private banking sector. If the process were to go through, it would buy a 25% share in RBL and under the country’s regulations, this would trigger a mandatory open offer for another 26%, resulting in it having a majority and controlling interest. The acquisition, valued at around US$ 1.70 billion, would represent one of the largest foreign takeovers in India’s banking history; its current market cap stands at US$ 2.01 billion. It seems that the RBI sees foreign partnerships as a means to strengthen India’s mid-tier private bank. It recently cleared Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to acquire a 24.9% stake in Yes Bank. Local regulations currently allow up to 74% foreign investment in private sector banks but caps a single foreign investor’s holding at 15%, unless the central bank grants special approval. The Dubai bank, 56% owned by the Dubai government, already has three branches in India – in Mumbai, Chennai, and Gurugram. Investors in RBL must be well pleased, having seen the bank’s share value dip 8.0% last year, compared to an 85% surge YTD, at a time when the Nifty 50 index has declined 8.0%.

The latest local IPO has been announced – with Dubizzle Group Holdings releasing plans to offer a 30.34% share on the Dubai Financial Market; it will comprise 1.25 billion ordinary shares, including 196.1 million new shares and 1.05 billion existing shares to be sold by the current shareholders. Subscriptions will open next Thursday, on 23 October, close six days later on 29 October, with the final offer price announced on 30 October; trading is expected to commence on 06 November. Rothschild & Co. has been appointed as the Independent Financial Advisor, while Emirates NBD Capital PSC will serve as the Listing Advisor.

An earlier DFM IPO had been ALEC Holdings, a diversified engineering and construction group, which made its trading debut this week. This listing, the first in this sector in fifteen years, becomes the country’s largest-ever initial public offering in the construction sector, by both valuation and size. Its IPO, which raised US$ 381 million, via a sale of one billion existing ordinary shares by its sole Selling Shareholder, the Investment Corporation of Dubai, which will retain its remaining 80% stake in the company. The IPO was priced at US$ 0.381 per share, at the top end of the announced price range, which would see ALEC Holdings with a market cap of US$ 1.91 billion. In line with its dividend policy, ALEC intends to distribute a cash dividend of US$ 54.5 million in April 2026, followed by US$ 1.36 million for the 2026 financial year, payable in October 2026 and April 2027. Based on the 2026 dividend and final offer price of US$ 0.381 per share, this represents a dividend yield of 7.1% at listing. Thereafter, it intends to pay dividends twice a year, in April and October, with a minimum payout ratio of 50%of net profit, subject to Board approval.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 13 October, on 5,982 points, and having gained one hundred and ninety points (3.3%), the previous fortnight, gained a further ten points, (0.22%), to close the week on 5,992 points, by 17 October 2025. Emaar Properties rose US$ 0.02 on the week to close on US$ 3.73 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.86, US$ 2.61 and US$ 0.44 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 7.30, US$ 2.61 and US$ 0.43. On 17 October, trading was at two hundred and four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and fifty-seven million dollars, compared to eighty-three million shares, with a value of US$ seventy-four million dollars on 10 October 2025.

By 17 October 2025, Brent, US$ 7.92 (8.1%) lower the previous fortnight, shed US$ 1.29 (2.1%) to close on US$ 61.33. Gold, US$ 207 (2.7%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 150 (3.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,251 on 17 October. Silver was trading at US$ 49.98 – US$ 1.90 (3.8%) higher on the week.  

It is reported that in a surprise move, BP had won a case against Venture Capital, after the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Court of Arbitration found that the US company had breached its contractual obligations. In January 2022, it had started producing LNG from a facility in Louisiana; two months later, Russia invaded Ukraine which then sent gas prices soaring as global gas supply was severely curtailed. It had contracts to sell the LNG from its new Louisiana facility, once it was fully operational, to international buyers such as BP, Shell, Galp and Edison at much lower prices. The US gas supplier failed to declare the formal start of commercial operations until more than three years later in April 2025 – a move that enabled it to sell its LNG at much higher market spot prices. Both BP and Shell sued Venture for breach of contract, with the latter losing its case some months ago. In a surprise move, the court ruled in favour of BP that Venture had breached its obligations to declare the commercial operation of its Calcasieu LNG project in a timely manner. The energy giant is seeking more than US$ 1 billion in damages, along with interest, costs and attorneys’ fees, with the vanquished Venture Global indicating that “remedies will be determined in a separate damages hearing, which has not been scheduled but is anticipated to occur in 2026”.

Dieselgate’ is back in the news again, with a major lawsuit being heard in the High Court, against five leading carmakers – Mercedes, Ford, Nissan, Peugeot/Citroën and Renault – accused of cheating on emissions tests. These companies have been chosen by the court as lead defendants to be tried first as the case is so big. It is alleged that they used software to allow their cars to reduce emissions of harmful gases under test conditions. This will be the largest class action in English and Welsh legal history, and could eventually involve 1.6 million car owners, but initially it involves 220k car owners – and depending on the outcome of this case would then drag in a further nine carmakers to face the arm of the law. The saga started in 2015, with Volkswagen being accused by the US Environmental Protection Agency of installing software – known as “defeat devices” – on diesel cars to lower readings of the cars’ nitrogen oxide emissions. Five years later the German manufacturer was found guilty and paid US$ 257 million in settlement to 91k UK motorists. To date, the scandal has cost VW more than US$ 37.0 billion. In the current case, the court will have to decide whether systems installed in diesel cars, by the five carmakers, were designed to cheat clean air laws. The case will drag on for the next nine months, with a verdict expected in the summer of 2026, when 1.6 million UK motorists will know whether they will get any compensation.

Kering-owned Gucci, Richemont’s Chloe and LVMH’s Loewe have been fined US$ 139 million, US$ 23 million and US$ 20 million respectively, for fixing the resale prices of their retail partners. It does seem that the first two companies cooperated with the industry watchdog and probably received a lesser penalty for their efforts. Indeed, Gucci had already provisioned the fine in its H1 accounts. The illegal practices deprived retailers of pricing independence and reduced competition while protecting the brands’ own sales channels from retailer competition. The European Commission posted that “the three fashion companies interfered with their retailers’ commercial strategies by imposing restrictions on them, such as requiring them to not deviate from recommended retail prices; maximum discounts rates; and specific periods for sales”. It does seem that authorities are paying closer attention to the activities of the larger fashion houses. Brands including Armani, Dior, Loro Piana and recently Tod’s have also come under pressure from Italian authorities about alleged worker abuse in their supply chains.

For the third consecutive year, ending 31 March, the Royal Mail has been fined US$ 28 million, (50% higher on the year), for failing to meet delivery targets, for both first- and second-class mail, with a warning that fines are likely to continue if there were no improvement in performance; it also did not meet revised down targets agreed with Ofcom. With preset delivery targets of 93.0% and 98.5%, (for first-class and second-class mail), it failed badly posting returns of 77.0% and 92.5%. The only reason that the fine did not reach US$ 40 million was because it admitted wrongdoing and agreed to settle. Ofcom noted that “it took insufficient and ineffective steps to try and prevent this failure, which is likely to have impacted millions of customers who did not get the service they paid for”.

A lot has been written about the shenanigans surrounding PPE Medpro, a firm linked to Baroness Michelle Mone and founded by her husband, Doug Barrowman. It had been ordered to repay US$ 163 million for supplying defective PPE at the height of the pandemic. It had been introduced to a “VIP lane” for providers, by the Conservative peer.  The lady’s husband has described himself as the “ultimate beneficial owner” of PPE Medpro and says US$ 39 million of profit from the deal was paid into a trust benefitting his family, including his wife and her children, but he was never a director, and the couple were not personally liable for the money. The court had given him until 4pm, 15 October 2025, to pay the fine – the deadline was not met. (PPE Medpro entered into administration a day before the court’s ruling, with its latest accounts showing it had a book value of around US$ 1 million – some way short of the penalty).

Pensana had planned to build a rare earths refinery at its Saltend Chemicals Plant near Hull, which would have processed raw materials into metals used to create powerful magnets which would then have been used in high-tech applications such as motors for electric vehicles, wind turbines and robotics. The project would have given the UK a strategic foothold in the rare earths industry, which is currently dominated by China. In 2022, Boris Johnson’s announced plans for “a multi-million-pound investment” in the project but this week it was announced that it had pulled the plug on building a US$ 336 million refinery in Hull and decided to move the operation to the US. According to Pensana’s founder and chairman, Paul Atherley, the government contribution –of US$ 7 million – was “nowhere near enough”, and the Treasury proved unwilling to contribute more. The US government  seems to be a lot keener in promoting this industry – for example, in a deal between the US government and MP Materials, the company will benefit from more than half a billion dollars’ worth of investment and soft loans to fund a similar facility in California, as well as a ten-year agreement to ensure all the magnets it produces are sold for a minimum price. (Currently, China produces roughly 90% of all finished rare earth metals and that its government is heavily sponsoring the industry; last week it imposed tight restrictions on the exports of rare earths). Pensana had been seen as UK’s answer to the periodic panics about the availability of rare earths, with the site at Saltend Chemicals Park being chosen by the government to launch its critical minerals strategy in 2022. Sic transit gloria mundi.

Yesterday, Nestle announced that it would be cutting some 16k global jobs, (spread between 75% from office-related positions and 25% in manufacturing and supply chain jobs). The world’s biggest packaged food company, with brands, such as Nescafe, Cheerios, KitKat, and Rolo, confirmed that it was “automating” its processes and increasing focus on “operational efficiency”. It also added that reductions will be “across functions and geographies”. Of its current 277k global workforce, 7.5k work in the UK.

The US government has seized more than US$ 14 billion in bitcoin and charged the founder of the Prince Group for allegedly engaging in a wire-fraud conspiracy and a money laundering scheme. Chen Zi, a UK and Cambodian national, (who still remains at large), headed the Cambodian business empire, and had seen his businesses sanctioned by the US and the UK as part of a joint operation; the UK government has frozen assets owned by his network, including nineteen London properties – one of which was worth US$ 133 million. US prosecutors said it was one the biggest financial takedowns in history and the largest ever seizure of bitcoin – 127,271 bitcoin being held by US government. He is accused by the Department of Justice, of being the mastermind behind a “sprawling cyber-fraud empire”, operating under his multi-national company. Its activities were the complete opposite of what was claimed on its website – that its businesses include property development, and financial and consumer services. However, the DoJ thought otherwise, alleging that the sham company ran one of Asia’s largest transnational criminal organisations, entrapping unwitting victims to transfer cryptocurrency based on false promises that the funds would be invested and generate profits. Prince Group documents included tips on building rapport with victims, advising workers not to use profile photos of women who were “too beautiful” so that the accounts would look more genuine. The company also was accused of being a “criminal enterprise built on human suffering”. It also trafficked workers, who were confined in prison-like compounds and forced to carry out scams online. It was alleged that some of the criminal proceeds was wasted on luxury travel and entertainment, and making “extravagant” purchases like watches, private jets and rare artwork, including a Picasso painting. If convicted in the UK, Chen faces a maximum penalty of forty years in jail because of allegedly incorporated businesses in the British Virgin Islands and investments in UK property, including a US$ 134 million office building in central London, a US$ 16 million mansion in North London and seventeen apartments in the city, 

According to the data from the Korea Customs Service, in the first ten days of October, exports from the Republic of Korea’s exports declined 15.2% on the year, as outbound shipments dropped 15.0% to US$13 billion. With annualised imports slumping by 22.8% on the year to US$ 13.5 billion, there was a trade deficit of US$ 500 million. In September, exports had increased 12.7%, compared to a year earlier to US$ 65.95 billion, attributable to strong robust semiconductor demand, (its highest monthly total in three and a half years).

In the nine months to September 2025, China’s total goods imports and exports in yuan-denominated terms rose 4.0% on the year, to US$ 4.71 trillion. The General Administration of Customs said the growth rate accelerated from the 3.5% increase recorded in the first eight months of the year. In September alone, China’s imports and exports were 8.0% higher on the year to total US$ 565.91 billion. In the first nine months of 2025, China’s total goods imports and exports, in yuan-denominated terms, rose, by 4.0%, to US$ 4.73 trillion. According to the General Administration of Customs, this had risen from the 3.5% increase noted in the eight months to 31 August. In September alone, China’s imports and exports totalled US$ 5.68 billion – 8.0% higher on an annual basis.

According to the IMF MD, Kristalina Georgieva, the world body will continue to push the G20 economies to focus on persistent debt issues, burdening developing economies. She commented that “growth is slow, debt is high, and the risks of financial downturn are … there”, with the IMF working with the World Bank to look at countries with liquidity issues. She also noted at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, that the impact of US tariffs had been less dramatic than expected, but uncertainty remained high.

Two major global nations have been left reeling from the impact of the Trump tariffs – India on the end of a 50% levy, (increased because of the country importing Russian energy), and Switzerland by 39%. Most others have had to make do with a 25% levy, with exceptions such as the UK’s favourable 10% and the EU’s 15%. One of India’s most important industries has taken a major wake-up call from the impact of the Trump tariffs; the country’s US$ 11.0 billion textile export industry has had its confidence shaken to its core in the US market. It is estimated that half a million garments sit in towering stacks, ready for shipment but stalled over who will pay the new duties, with US buyers asking for major discounts to pay for the ‘inflated’ prices of Indian merchandise. Major Indian producers are already cutting payroll numbers and reducing hours – and in turn pay packets – and would be struggling if they had to pay a larger share of the tariff. Tiruppur, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, and known as the country’s ‘knitwear capital’, exported 40% of its woollen garments, worth US$ 2.0 billion, to the US. Inevitably, it will be struggling this year. With US orders almost completely at a standstill, and some bigger factories on the brink of bankruptcy, the industry has to urgently find new markets and, even, if successful, they will not fill the void from the loss of the US business. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, MK Stalin, has warned that up to three million jobs could be at risk across the state’s textile belt, a grim prospect for a country struggling to provide well-paid work for its youth.

To date, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter has failed to reduce US tariffs on Swiss goods, including watches, even though the country is thought by many to have one of world’s most competitive and innovative economy. Furthermore, it is also one of the biggest investors in the US, creating up to 400k jobs.

Data from the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, posted that the six-nation bloc’s Q1 GDP, at current prices, of the Gulf Cooperation Council rose 3.0% to US$ 588.1 billion. Non-oil activities contributed 73.2% of GCC’s GDP, at current prices, while oil activities accounted for 26.8%, at current prices. On the quarter, the GCC’s GDP grew 0.05%.

The GCC’s travel and tourism sector contributed US$ 247.1 billion to their cumulative GDP – 31.9% higher than the pre-Covid 2029 level. It is forecast that 13.3%, (US$ 371.2 billion), of the GDP will benefit from this sector by 2034 – an indicator that it is becoming increasingly important as a key driver of the bloc’s economic, social and environmental development. Tourism is one of the region’s main engines for creating direct and indirect jobs, with its 2024 contribution valued at US$ 4.3 billion – 24.9% higher than the figure in 2019. By 2034, the sector is expected to generate around 1.3 million new jobs by 2034.

Donald Trump is seen to be looking after his friends again – this time it is the Argentine president, Javier Milei. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the purchase of the country’s pesos and that the US had finalised terms of a planned US$ 20 billion financial rescue package for the country, adding that “the US Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted”. As usual, any move by Trump has riled his opponents who are left wondering why the country has extended financial support to embattled Argentina, at a time of spending cuts at home has drawn scrutiny. The value of the peso has declined sharply in recent months, while investors have been dumping Argentine stocks and bonds. Bessent retorted that, “a strong, stable Argentina, which helps anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere, is in the strategic interest of the United States. Their success should be a bipartisan priority”. It is Argentina’s third debt default since 2001, with the last being in 2020.

The US President came out fighting again last Friday, as he unveiled plans to retaliate against China’s earlier decision to curb the critical exports of rare earth element controls, essential to tech manufacturing. China produces over 90% of the world’s processed rare earths and rare earth magnets. He announced that he would levy additional 100% levies on China’s US-bound exports, along with new export controls on “any and all critical software” by 01 November, nine days before existing tariff relief is set to expire. He also mentioned that the proposed Xi Jinping meeting in North Korea, next month, could be in jeopardy, as he commented “now there seems to be no reason to do so”. Unfortunately, for the rest of the world, this could be bad news if a global trade war were to ensue and be a major body blow to ‘The Magnificent Seven’, including cloud computing and AI and it impact on global bourses.

In a bid to safeguard the European supply of semiconductors for cars and other electronic goods, and protect Europe’s economic security, the Dutch government has taken over control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker based in the Netherlands; it also has facilities on a global scale including in the UK. The Hague confirmed that the decision was down to “serious governance shortcomings” and to prevent the chips from becoming unavailable in an emergency. This move will obviously ratchet up tensions between the EU and China, which is already at low levels because of trade and Beijing’s relationship with Russia. Late last year, the US government placed Wingtech, Nexperia’s owner, on its so-called “entity list”, identifying the company as a national security concern; this legislation bars US companies from exporting American-made goods to businesses on the list unless they have special approval. In the UK, Nexperia was forced to sell its silicon chip plant in Newport, after MPs and ministers expressed national security concerns. currently owns a UK facility in Stockport. The Dutch Economic Ministry said it made the “highly exceptional” decision to invoke the Goods Availability Act over “acute signals of serious governance shortcomings” within Nexperia. However, it confirmed that company’s production could continue, as normal, but it appears that the company was in discussions with lawyers about potential legal remedies.

Ming Yang, a Chinese energy company, has announced plans to spend US$ 2.0 billion to build the UK’s largest wind turbine manufacturing facility in Scotland, that will create 1.5k new jobs. The firm, the largest private wind turbine manufacturer in China, has already chosen the green freeport site at Ardersier and will spend 50% of its investment, with the first production taking place by late 2028. The balance will help create an “offshore wind industry ecosystem” around the hub. The firm’s UK chief executive, Aman Wang said, “we firmly believe that by moving forward with our plans to create jobs, skills and a supply chain in the UK, we can make this country the global hub for offshore wind technology”. There is one caveat that there are some who consider China a “hostile site”, and there should be “serious questions about energy and national security”. However, the Starmer administration will “encourage investment”, adding that “this is one of a number of companies that wants to invest in the UK. Any decisions made will be consistent with our national security”.

Another week and further bad news for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with wage growth slumping to a four-year low, last seen in March 2021, driven by a weak demand for workers allied with the supply of available candidates to fill roles. The latest KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation index of wage growth for full-time staff sees an 0.4 monthly dip to 50.2 – marginally above the 50.0 threshold, demarcating between expansion and contraction. This could be seen as good news for the rate setters at the BoE who had shown concern that demand for higher wages could have impacted inflation that then may have resulted in higher prices.

In Q3, and for the thirty-ninth successive period, UK’s vacancy numbers dipped lower, by 9k – a sure indicator that, with fewer jobs available, it becomes more difficult to find work. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the unemployment rate nudging 0.1% higher, on the month, to 4.8%, primarily driven by younger people, as a record number of people over sixty-five are still in work. The jobless rate is now at its highest since May 2021, partly attributable to the fact that the cost of employing staff became more expensive, last April, due to higher employers’ national insurance contributions and an increased minimum wage. Some good news came with August having the fewest working days lost to strike action in a single month for nearly six years. Public sector pay growth increased more quickly, at 6%, than the 5.0% average weekly earnings.

Mixed news for the UK, as the IMF has forecast that, in 2025, the country will be the second- fastest growing economy in the G7, at a modest 1.3% for both years. This was somewhat tarnished by the global body predicting that the UK will have the highest rates of inflation, this year (3.4%), and next (2.5%), in the G7, attributable to rising energy and utility bills. Canada is expected to retake second place next year when its economy is forecast to grow at 1.5%. Germany, France and Italy are all forecast to grow far more slowly at rates of between 0.2% and 0.9% in 2025 and 2026.

Rishi Sunak, the former prime minister, but still MP for Richmond and Northallerton, indicated his “delight” to be working “with two of the world’s leading tech firms”, Microsoft and Anthropic; he had already earlier confirmed he will act as a paid adviser to his former employer, Goldman Sachs. He has already been warned by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments that he must not lobby ministers on behalf of the companies. As prime minister, (between 2022 -2024), he had made tech regulation a significant priority, setting up an AI safety summit in 2023. The watchdog noted that Anthropic “has a significant interest in UK government policy”, meaning that Sunak’s appointment could potentially be seen to offer “unfair access and influence” within government, and that the appointment with Microsoft, a “major investor” in the UK, also presented similar issues. Sunak was told not to advise on bidding for UK contracts, or to lobby the government for two years from his last day in ministerial office. Many in the country will be wondering why some MPs have so much time on their hands that they can take up second and third jobs and whether being an PMP is really a full-time position.The Joke Is On Me!