A Sign of Things To Come?                                             05 December 2025

There is no doubt that Dubai’s property sector is still on fire and, having surpassed all previous annual records in the previous month, November YTD sales pushed the total through the US$ 170 billion, (AED 624 billion), mark. In the month, there were 19.02k transactions, (30.0% higher on the year), with the average price per sq ft, up 16.1% to US$ 478; total sales value for November was US$ 17.63 billion – 49.6% higher on the year. The usual key drivers continue to include Dubai’s dynamic economy, infrastructure, and attractive investment policies, that have proved a magnet for both residents and global buyers seeking lifestyle and stability. 

A monthly breakdown sees:

• Apartments   15.91k                      +37.4%                    Total Value             US$ 8.74 billion
• Villas                2.08k                       – 6.6%                      Total Value             US$ 3.60 billion
• Commercial   0.65k                         79.7%                      Total Value             US$ 627 million
• Buildings         0.012k                      110%                       Total Value             US$ 3.19 billion
• Plots                 0.038k                      3.6%                        Total Value             US$ 4.66 billion

In November, average prices for:

• Apartments                              US$ 381k                                  +14.1% 
• Villas                                        US$ 1.12 million                     +30.7%                   
• Commercial                              US$ 572k                                 +38.9%                   
• Buildings                                   US$ 239k                                 -98.8%                   
• Plots                                           US$ 1.83 million                    +3.5%              

The top five selling locations were:

• Jumeirah Village Circle                          1.43k transactions                US$ 518 million
• Wada Al Safa                                             1.13k transactions                US$ 490 million
• Business Bay                                              1.06k transactions                US$ 981 million
• Dubai South                                               0. 90k transactions               US$ 572 million  
• Mina Rashid                                               0.90k transactions                US$ 845 million

Property sales volume by price showed:

• Under US$ 272k                                      (AED 1m)                25%
• Between US$ 272k – US$ 545k       (AED 1m – 2m)    36%
• Between US$ 545k – US  817k        (AED 2m – 3m)    17%
• Between US$ 817k – US$ 1.36m    (AED 3m – 5m)    13%
• Over US$ 1.36 m                                  (AED 5m)                  9%    

Since post-Covid, November property sales volume  has risen:

• 2021                         7.0k                            81.6% higher
• 2022                         11.1k                         58.6% higher
• 2023                         12.3k                         10.7% higher
• 2024                         14.5k                         18.3% higher
• 2025                         19.0k                         30.8% higher

Since post-Covid, November property sales value has risen:

• 2021                         US$ 4.90 billion                      141.4% higher
• 2022                         US$ 8.45 billion                      72.8% higher
• 2023                         US$ 11.58 billion                     37.0% higher
• 2024                         US$ 11.63 billion                     53.0% higher
• 2025                         US$ 17.63 billion                     51.3% higher

The five best-selling properties were in:

• US$ 55 million        Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay
• US$ 53 million       Lot A Residences Principal L0t – DIFC
• US$ 22 million      Salaya 2 at Jumeirah First
• US$ 22 million        Aman Residences – Tower 1 Jumeirah Second
• US$ 17million        Orla Infinity by Omniyat at Palm Jumeirah

Meraas has announced the launch of Crestlane 4 and Crestlane 5, located in City Walk; both will have two mid-rise towers, set around landscaped green spaces. The former will house two hundred and one premium residences and the latter one hundred and fifty-nine. The CEO of the Dubai Holding Real Estate subsidiary, Khalid Al Malik, noted that “Crestlane 4 and 5 represent a significant step forward in the continued evolution of City Walk, as one of Dubai’s most contemporary and design-led neighbourhoods”.

During the year, the Sheikh Zayed Housing Programme has issued 3.57k decisions totalling US$ 681 million, with 0.60k issued in Q4, and valued at US$ 130 million. The total package for 2025 included:

• 524 Presidential grants                worth US$ 97 million
• 623 government housing grants  worth US$ 74 million
• 32 housing grants                          worth US$ 7 million
• 2,388 housing financing               worth US$ 250 million

The programme, initiated in 1999, forms part of ongoing efforts to meet increasing housing needs amid rapid population growth and urban development. It forms part of the government’s commitment to enhance family stability and to improve citizens’ quality of life.

In a study, by Property Finder, to rank the most attractive global destination for buying holiday homes, the UAE has been ranked the fourth; thirty-two countries were considered. The UAE’s high position was down to many factors, including its rising status as a preferred hub for living, investment and travel, supported by favourable regulations, high living standards and exceptional connectivity. Some of the metrics used were affordability, transport infrastructure, rental returns, tax burdens and quality-of-life indicators. UAE was beaten to the post by long-established tourism destinations – Spain, France and Portugal, with the US placed fifth. The UAE continues to strengthen its lifestyle appeal, thanks to its strong performance across safety, hospitality and entertainment benchmarks. With clean beaches, leisure districts, cultural hubs, luxury retail and a year-round calendar of events, the country offers a holistic living experience that extends far beyond traditional holiday expectations.

The latest Gulf Economic Update has forecasts that the UAE economy will grow by 4.8%, confirming that the country will continue to achieve strong and broad-based growth, with balance across oil and non-oil sectors. This figure is ahead of the other five GCC nations – Saudi Arabia -3.8%, Bahrain – 3.5%, Oman – 3.1%, Qatar – 2.8%, and Kuwait – 2.7%. The report highlighted three main pillars – the evolution of economic diversification indicators over the past decade, tracking macroeconomic developments, and focusing on digital transformation.

A forty-two-year-old Dubai Duty Free posted its best ever monthly return in November, with sales of US$ 240 million, 16.8% higher on the year; the result was that YTD revenue reached US$ 2.11 billion. It was reported that sales growth outpaced passenger traffic by an estimated 10%, with 29 November becoming the busiest shopping day of the year, with spending of over US$ 10 million. It was noted that transactions under US$ 136, (AED 500) nudged slightly higher in number while generating higher overall value, and purchases above that figure were seen to grow at a faster pace and accounted for 75% of all spending. The top selling items were Perfumes                                           US$ 44 million Liquor                                                US$ 28 million Gold                                                   US$ 24 million Tobacco                                              US$ 24 million Confectionery                                     US$ 23 million, (42.9% inc eighty tons of chocolate) Electronics                                          US$ 18 million, (inc 5.2k iPhone 17s)   A warning to the thousands of Indian nationals, owning property in Dubai, that they will be receiving SMS and email alerts from India’s Income Tax Department. Its advice is to declare all foreign assets correctly in your Indian tax return by 31 December 2025 or face heavy penalties. Last week, the Central Board of Direct Taxes announced that the second phase of its Nudge campaign, a compliance initiative designed to encourage voluntary reporting, would commence on last Friday. The outreach relies on financial data shared by more than one hundred jurisdictions under the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) and the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). This campaign does not apply to NRIs, who are not Indian tax residents, and therefore do not file Income Tax Returns (ITRs) in India. These NRIs have no obligation to declare foreign assets, and they won’t receive Nudge alerts.   It warns that after its analysis of Automatic Exchange of Information data for the financial year 2024–25, it has identified almost 25k high-risk taxpayers whose overseas assets do not match what was declared in their latest returns for Assessment Year (AY) 2025–26. Penalties for non-compliance include a US$ 11k fine, 30% tax on any unreported income, and a penalty of up to 300% of the tax due. Indians top the list of foreign property buyers in Dubai for several years running. In 2024 alone, it is estimated that Indian buyers accounted for 22% of all Dubai property transactions and invested roughly US$ 40.87 billion.   Starting on 01 January 2026, The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of Federal Decree-Law No. (17) of 2025 amending certain provisions of Federal Decree-Law No. (28) of 2022 on Tax Procedures. The main aim of the exercise is to establish a clearer and more structured legal framework for tax obligations and procedures, including regulating the timeframe for requesting refunds of credit balances with the Federal Tax Authority. There is a period not exceeding five years from the end of the relevant tax period for requesting the refund of a credit balance from the Authority or for using that balance to settle tax liabilities. The amendments also expand the provisions related to limitation periods, granting the Authority the power to conduct tax audits or issue tax assessments after the expiry of the limitation period in certain cases, such as refund requests submitted in the final year of the limitation period, to ensure a balance between protecting taxpayers’ rights and safeguarding the state’s financial entitlements.   During last week’s “Doing Business with Cambodia” forum, attended by a delegation from Dubai Chambers, Neak Oknha Kith Meng, President of the Cambodia Chamber of Commerce, noted that the bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement provides “the foundational policy instrument designed to raise non-oil trade beyond US$ 1 billion by 2030”.  He also added that the CEPA provides “the foundational policy instrument designed to raise non-oil trade beyond US$ 1 billion by 2030”, and that it is “is fundamentally synergistic as it secures a vital economic gateway for the UAE into the dynamic ASEAN market of six hundred and eighty million consumers, while offering Cambodia preferential access required to diversify its reliance and integrate into the crucial GCC hub,”   On 01 August 2015, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. The approved fuel prices, by the Ministry of Energy, are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. After three months of marginal price changes, December sees petrol prices nudging between 2.7% and 2.9% higher, whilst diesel came in 6.7% higher. YTD all price sectors were higher by a similar ratio as seen for this month’s prices. Super 98     US$ 0.736 from US$ 0.717    in Dec      up         3.5% YTD US$ 0.711      Special 95   US$ 0.703 from US$ 0.684    in Dec      up         3.2% YTD US$ 0.681         E-plus 91     US$ 0.684 from US$ 0.665    in Dec      up         3.3% YTD US$ 0.662 Diesel           US$ 0.777 from US$ 0. 728   in Dec      up         6.4% YTD US$ 0.730 Dubai Aerospace Enterprise’s latest long-term lease agreement, involving ten new Boeing 737-8 jets, is with AJet and Turkish Airlines which are scheduled for delivery over the next two years. The Dubai-based company currently owns, manages, and is committed to own a total of two hundred and thirty-six Boeing aircraft, including one hundred and nineteen 737 MAX family aircraft. Nasdaq Dubai’s latest Sukuk listing has been issued by Sharjah Islamic Bank – a five year-US$ 500 million bond, with a profit rate of 4.6%, issued under its US$ 3 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme. This is the bank’s third listing, bringing the total issue to date of US$ 1.5 billion. The financing will be used for the bank’s general corporate purposes. The total outstanding value of debt listings on Nasdaq Dubai now exceeds US$ 144 billion – a sure indicator that Dubai continues to enhance its position as a leading global centre for capital raising and cross-border investment flows.   The DFM opened the shortened week on Wednesday 03 December on 5,837 points, and having shed two hundred and eight points (1.5%), the previous three weeks, gained one hundred and forty-seven points (2.5%), to close the week on 5,984 points, by 05 December 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.14 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.21 to close on US$ 3.83 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74 US$ 6.65, US$ 2.50 and US$ 0.43 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 7.30, US$ 2.56 and US$ 0.43. On 05 December, trading was at two hundred and sixteen million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety-three million dollars, compared to three hundred and thirteen million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and sixty-five million dollars on 28 November. By 05 December 2025, Brent, US$ 0.23 (0.4%) higher the previous week, had gained US$ 1.57, (2.5%), to close on US$ 63.80. Gold, US$ 147 (3.6%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 2 (0.1%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,216 on 05 December. Silver was trading at US$ 58.60 – US$ 2.16 (3.8%) higher on the week.   Last week, Airbus was in the news that it had to recall 50% of its global A-320 fleet for repairs triggered by a software vulnerability to solar flares.Luckily for the plane maker, operations returned to normal very quickly after a change of software version was implemented faster than expected, with fewer than one hundred still needing a possibly deeper hardware repair. This week, Airbus has been impacted by a quality issue with metal fuselage panels on some A320-family jets, delaying  deliveries. The Toulouse-based company commented that it “confirms it has identified a quality issue affecting a limited number of A320 metal panels”, and “the source of the issue has been identified, contained and all newly produced panels conform to all requirements”. A spokesperson said the problem stemmed from a supplier, who they declined to name, with other analysts saying that the problem has only affected some fifty jets. With Airbus delivering only seventy-two aircraft in November, its eleven-month total comes to six hundred and fifty-seven fewer than many analysts had previously expected and bringing the total for the year so far to six hundred and fifty-seven – a long way off its total annual estimate of eight hundred and twenty. Yesterday, one hundred and seventy Indigo flights were cancelled and thousands of passengers left stranded for a third day, brought about by the country’s biggest airline  not making sufficient changes to its roster planning ahead of new government regulations. A day earlier one hundred and fifty flights were cancelled, affecting passengers at major airports in New Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune and Bengaluru. The carrier’s market value has already fallen 6.0% this week. Other airlines including Air India, Spicejet and Akasa Air have not been impacted. The former assistant treasury manager at Chelsea FC has pleaded guilty to defrauding the football club of US$ 278; the offences took place over three years from 08 June 2019 to 23 October 2023. She admitted a charge of fraud by abuse of position and was told by Magistrate Kieran O’Donnell: “You’ve pleaded guilty to the offence, and it exceeds our powers in terms of sentencing. You’ll need to be sent to a crown court for sentencing, where they have the appropriate powers”.  It is obvious that other stakeholders should have known what was going on. After closing thirty-three outlets in the UK, River Island, is set to close its ME operations under a court-approved restructuring plan. The only good news for regular shoppers of the brand is that stores in the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are offering discounts of up to 75% on merchandise in its last days of business. This follows the recent regional closures of both Debenhams, popular furniture brand West Elm and Pottery Barn who like River Island, operate in the Gulf, under the Kuwait-based Alshaya Group.   Despite posting a profit of US$ 438 million, (after a prior year US$ 254 million loss) cash-strapped Thames Water has revealed a further 5.0% increase in debt to US$ 23.49 billion; its revenue surged 42% to US$ 2.53 billion. The company, which has sixteen million customers, is on the brink of financial collapse. The utility laid most of the blame at the door of higher debt serving costs. The UK’s largest supplier said the 31% rise to customer bills since April had allowed it to increase capital investment by 22% to US$ 1.73 billion, amid demands it improve performance in preventing sewage spills and stopping leaks. Meanwhile, there are ongoing discussions involving the government and regulators over a proposed rescue deal, by major Thames Water creditors through a consortium known as London & Valley Water. A decision on whether this would be acceptable has yet to be made by Ofwat, the industry’s regulator.   In November, the Republic of Korea’s exports increased 8.4%, on the year, to over US$ 61 billion – the sixth consecutive month of increases on the back of strong demand for semiconductors. November outbound shipments came to US$ 61.04 billion, the highest ever for any November. Imports gained, on the year, by 1.2% to US$ 51.3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$ 9.73 billion. Accumulated exports YTD rose to US$ 640.2 billion – perhaps pointing to an annual US$ 700 billion for the year which would be a record high. Semiconductor exports, at an all-time monthly high of US$ 17.26 billion, were 38.6% higher, driven by a continued rise in memory chip prices sparked by strong demand for high-value products for data centres – the ninth consecutive month chip exports have posted an on-year increase. In contrast, China’s factory activity contracted for the eighth straight month, pointing to further challenges for the country’s economy despite the US-China trade truce.  Although still in negative territory, the official manufacturing purchasing managers index nudged up 0.2 to 49.2 in November; the contraction was in line with market expectations. Although the market expects exports to become more competitive, following to the easing of Trump tariffs, its impact will be better understood by year end. Italy’s October employment rate rose to 62.7% – the highest level recorded since the statistical series began in January 2004, with 24.21 million being employed in the month. Employment increased by 75k, on the month, and by 244k, on the year, raising the employment rate by 0.1%, as the unemployment rate dipped by 0.2% to 6.0%. Although youth unemployment rate declined by a marked 1.9% to 19.8%, the inactivity rate remained stable at 33.2%. According to Cotality, its national Home Value Index climbed 1.0% last month, (compared to 1.1% in October), as Australian property prices continued to climb, notably in mid-sized capital cities, with rate cuts keeping the market momentum moving; November was the third consecutive month of values rising by more than 1.0%. The pace of growth is easing slightly, as the Sydney and Melbourne markets, with price rises of 0.5% and 0.3%, continue to lag the other capital cities. The report noted the difference between Perth and Sydney. Listings in the former city were holding more than 40% below average, whereas the shortfall in the latter saw listings 2.2% below the five-year average, compared to 16.0% below average listings across the capital cities. It appears that affordability in Sydney is holding back growth, with the report also noting that housing affordability has never been worse in the country, with more than a decade needed to save a standard 20% deposit to buy a house in most capital cities. Furthermore, auction clearance rates have trended lower since peaking in mid-September, falling below the decade average by mid-November. This was backed up by a report from REA Group’s PropTrack that estimated a median-income household would have been able to afford just 15% of the homes sold nationally in the 2025 financial year. The end result is that there is an unhealthy growth in housing values, skewed towards lower price points of the market. PropTrack also mentioned that although the housing affordability index had improved – driven mainly by lower rates and relatively higher incomes – affordability remained near a record low, with low-income households able to afford just 3.0% of homes sold. It is patently obvious that the three mortgage rate reductions this year have kept the market bubbling over. No rate reductions in 2026 could prove a major problem for the sector which will inevitably flatline, as prices will dip, and confidence will walk out the front door. There is also an increasing chance of an uptick in rates, if higher than expected inflation figures return in 2026 and if that were to happen property prices will adjust lower.   The WTO has come out with figures that show the value of global goods imports, impacted by new tariffs and other import measures, had increased more than fourfold in the year-end mid-October 2025 – the highest coverage since 2010 of the world body’s trade monitoring. It estimated that global imports, worth US$ 2,640 billion, or 11.1% of total imports, have been affected – compared to just US$ 611 billion the previous year. Including similar measures on exports, the total trade affected was worth about US$ 2,966 billion (compared to US$ 888 billion recorded in the previous period). 19.7% of world imports are now affected by tariffs and other such measures introduced since 2009 – compared to 12.6% only a year ago. WTO economists estimate world merchandise trade growth at 2.4% in 2025 and at 0.5% in 2026, with stronger-than-expected trade growth in H1 2025, driven by import frontloading, strong demand for AI-related products, and continuing trade growth among most WTO members, particularly developing economies. It is inevitable that next week will see the US Federal Reserve post another 0.25% rate cut to 3.5% – 3.75%. This comes after a double whammy of a sharp cooling in business activity and a marked slowdown in business activity surprisingly softer US job market indicators, (including private employers cutting 32k jobs last month). The market expects a further two 0.25% rate reductions before July 2026.   The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has concluded that the Chancellor’s recent US$ 34.32 billion budget tax rises will act as “a headwind to the economy” until 2029. Concluding that they will also constrain the economy for a number of years, the world body added previous tax increases and expenditure cuts have hit household finances and slowed spending. It calculated that this year’s GDP growth will remain at 1.4% followed by an estimate of 1.2% and 1.3% for the ensuing two years.  The UK is forecast to have the highest inflation rate – at 3.5% – of any G7 economy, before declining to 2.5%. Further bad news impacting the UK economy is that the country’s construction sector suffered its sharpest contraction in activity since May 2020, according to S&P Global’s monthly purchasing managers’ index, a closely watched survey taken before last month’s budget. The survey of business behaviour showed steep falls in all three sub-sectors – civil engineering, residential, and commercial building. With a target of 1.5 million new homes to be built before the end of the five year parliament, (if it lasts that long), it seems that the Starmer administration will be defending another manifesto promise that went wrong; construction activity was found to be at its weakest since the first lockdown during the Covid pandemic, with the report noting “steep reductions in new orders and employment”.The report indicates that it is not only construction struggling but zero growth has also impacted the services and manufacturing sectors.   The Chancellor is very good (and perhaps correct in some cases) blaming external or historic factors, including Brexit, Trump tariffs, the past Tory governments and Covid for the dismal state of the economy. However, she must take responsibility for her own incompetence and inexperience – and her own share of blame for the rising inflation rate and the jobless rate, with both creeping higher in H2. The UK’s interest rates, particularly its government bond yields, have generally been among the highest in the G7 recently, whilst the unemployment rate has climbed 0.9% to 5.0% since Labour took office. The fact is that in her first budget, last year, she raised NI employers’ contribution and raised the minimum wage which had a knock-on effect on business and consumer confidence damaging the jobs market and raising the pace of price growth in the process.   The city of San Francisco is to sue ten leading food makers over their ultra-processed products because  of their knowingly selling foods that have been linked to a rise in serious diseases. The firms involved include the likes of Kraft Heinz, Mondelez and Coca-Cola for intentionally marketing addictive, unhealthy products, (ranging from cookies and sweets to cereal and granola bars), in violation of California laws on public nuisance and unfair competition. It also claims that “these companies engineered a public health crisis, they profited handsomely, and now they need to take responsibility for the harm they have caused”. The lawsuit argues that the growing availability of ultra-processed foods has coincided with a “dramatic increase” in obesity, diabetes, heart disease, cancers and other chronic illnesses. It is requesting monetary penalties and a statewide order forcing the food giants to change their “deceptive” marketing tactics. Earlier in the year, the US health secretary, Robert F Kennedy called for companies to remove ingredients such as corn syrup, seed oils and artificial dyes from their products, linking them to health problems. Hopefully, A Sign of Things To Come?