2025 was yet another record year for the Dubai property market with figures from the Dubai Land Department showing a 30.64% surge in sales to US$ 185.96 billion, as transactions jumped 18.82% to 214.9k. The three main drivers behind the 2025 figures have been rising global capital inflows, much improved end-user demand and a steady improvement of the Dubai economy. There has also been a marked shift that now sees families staying longer in Dubai, than in past years, so that many are now choosing to buy rather than rent, adding to a overall increased demand for housing.

Sales volumes surged through 2025, driven by global capital inflows, rising end-user demand and a steady expansion of the wider economy. The bull market has been on-going for five years and sees little chance of changing in 2026, but basic economics indicate that this cannot continue ad infinitum. However, at the end of the year, the sector consolidated its position as one of the world’s leading property markets, driven by strong demand from local and international investors. Q4 sales, at US$ 51.08 billion, and 28.9% higher, were the highest ever quarterly return, with record monthly results of US$ 17.66 billion, US$ 17.50 billion and US$ 15.92 billion in December, November and October. Mortgage transactions reached US$ 48.84 billion, via 50.97k deals, while gifts totalled US$ 15.59 billion, across 9.56k transactions, during the year.

As the general market is becoming increasingly price sensitive, this trend does not seem to apply to the luxury/ultra luxury sectors that prefer branded residences, prime villas, and waterfront homes, mainly because supply has yet to fully catch up with demand. Such locations include Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Bay Island, Emirates Hills, Al Wasl, Dubai Hills Estate and Mohammed Bin Rashid City. Many of the buyers in the ultra-high-net-worth sector have taken to Dubai for various reasons including a better lifestyle, political stability, world-class facilities and long-term residency options. That demand has helped push the luxury segment beyond its post-pandemic boom phase into what many analysts now view as a more mature global asset class.

The top ten selling locations during 2025 were:

Business Bay                                       US$ 10.44 billion

Jumeirah Village Circle                       US$ 6.68 billion

Al Yalayis 1                                         US$ 6.47 billion

Dubai Investment Park Second          US$ 6.31 billion

Palm Jumeirah                                    US$ 5.83billion

Airport City                                         US$ 5.57billion

Burj Khalifa                                         US$ 5.53 billion

Meydan                                               US$ 5.13 billion

Al Yufrah 1                                         US$ 5.10 billion

Palm Jebel Ali                                     US$ 4.78 billion

Reports indicate that Dubai is involved in currently building four of the world’s ten tallest skyscrapers, including second place Burj Azizi (at a height of seven hundred and twenty-five mt and with one hundred and thirty-one floors). Expected completion is in 2028. Burj Binghatti Jacob & Co Residences comes in at fifth place, at a height of five hundred and ninety-five mt. Located in Business Bay, it will have one hundred and four floors, with seven basement levels, and will become the world’s tallest residential building. Completion is slated for October 2027. In seventh place is Tiger Sky Tower Dubai, at five hundred and thirty-two mt, with a reported US$ 1.0 billion budget. It will boast the world’s highest infinity pool and the world’s highest restaurant – plus with a “lush green rainforest area” inside – and have a rooftop park. Construction started in May 2024 and is expected to be ready between 2028 – 2029. Six Senses Residences Dubai Marina, at five hundred and seventeen mt, takes eighth place and will become the world’s tallest standalone residential tower. It will feature one hundred and twenty-two floors and two hundred and fifty-one residences, with prices starting at US$ 1.58 million for a two-bedroom apartment. Expected completion is set for 2028.

The other six buildings in the top ten are:

 

1          Jeddah Tower                         Saudi Arabia               one thousand mt plus

3          Merdeka 118                          Kuala Lumpur             six hundred and seventy-nine mt

4          Goldin Finance 117                 Tianjin China               five hundred and ninety-seven mt

6          Senna Tower                           Balneario Brazul         five hundred and forty-four mt

9          The Line                                  Tabuk Saudi Arabia    five hundred mt

10        Greenland Jinmao                   Nanjing China             five hundred mt

In line with its twin targets of consolidating procedures and ensuring the clarity of the approved fees, within an organised legal framework, Dubai Courts will regulate the fees of the Private Notary Public, associated with the services provided, as from today, 02 January.  It also aims to protect the rights of service recipients, associated with those services. The adoption of the fee schedule will ensure the compliance of Private Notary Public offices with the approved regulatory and legislative frameworks, contribute to enhancing service quality, and accelerate the completion of transactions. The fees of the Private Notary Public, for the authorised service, were set at US$ 27, (AED 100), for the electronic registration of the parties’ details in the Dubai Courts system for each party to the instrument, in addition to US$ 27 for each signature on the instrument, and US$ 272 for each transfer, in the event that the Private Notary Public moves outside his place of work to carry out the transaction.

Following an earlier court ruling, the Dubai Attorney General filed an appeal in the interest of the law, seeking judicial clarification on fairness in family-related financial arrangements. After due consideration, the Dubai Court of Cassation issued a landmark ruling affirming that equality must be observed when distributing gifts, or similar financial benefits, among children and wives, unless there is a clear and legitimate reason to justify unequal treatment. According to the judgment, it is the responsibility of the trial judge to assess whether such a legitimate interest exists. In cases where unjustified inequality is established, the court ruled that compensation may be ordered from the estate to remedy the harm suffered by the disadvantaged party. The decision provides clear legal guidance and reinforces fairness and balance in family financial dealings under UAE law.

Impressive annual 2025 figures from the world’s largest international airline show that Emirates transported 55.6 million passengers on 180.6k flights, equivalent to circling the earth 29.29k times. During the calendar year, when it celebrated its fortieth anniversary in October, seventy-three new aircraft were ordered. EK welcomed the first of its Airbus 350 planes and has now has sixteen aircraft, (from its first order), currently operating to eighteen city destination. This year, Emirates continued its expansion in Asia, with the launch of daily non-stop flights to Shenzhen and Hangzhou in mainland China, in addition to operating services to Da Nang in Vietnam and Siem Reap in Cambodia via Bangkok. At November’s Dubai Airshow, the carrier rolled out Starlink satellite internet connectivity across two hundred and thirty-two aircraft, starting with Boeing 777s. It also launched Emirates Courier Express, promising any delivery within three days maximum, which currently serves ten international markets, with further expansion on-going. Its award-winning Emirates Skywards celebrated its twenty-fifty anniversary and now boasts thirty-seven million members across one hundred and ninety nations; it still attracts an average of 78k new members every month. In the years, it has distributed nearly four hundred billion reward miles, with members currently redeeming more than eight hundred flight rewards daily, with one upgrade processed every minute.

In its forty-second year, Dubai Duty Free posted a 9.9% hike in 2025 revenue to a record US$ 2.38 billion which included ten record-breaking months, with December taking the biscuit. Last month alone, sales, 12.3% higher, reached US$ 253 million – the highest monthly figure ever recorded; the figures were boosted by the traditional 20 December anniversary sales, when there is a 25% discount on offer – this year that day recorded sales of US$ 19 million. Although final passenger numbers for 2025 are yet to be released, sales growth exceeded passenger traffic by an estimated 5%.

This week, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Chairman of the Ports, Customs, and Free Zone Corporation, inaugurated its new headquarters in Dubai Maritime City. He noted that it had been designed as a symbol of progress as well as PCFC’s vision to strengthen Dubai’s position as a global business hub. The new building, with a standalone parking structure with over seven hundred spaces, will house over 1.5k employees and will serve more than three hundred clients and visitors daily.

Following launches in cities including London, Cannes and Saint-Tropez, Saddle Café has opened its latest outlet in the Swiss ski resort, Courchevel. Spanning forty sq mt, the Courchevel café has seating for nine guests, catering to both sit-down customers and those stopping briefly between ski runs or shopping trips. Saddle Café, founded in Dubai in 2017 will be serving its speciality coffees along with freshly prepared crepes, gourmet sandwiches, pistachio milkshakes and açai smoothies; the menu will also include other items such as rich hot chocolate, warming chai and steel-cut oat porridge, designed to suit colder winter conditions. It will also retail collection items – including branded apparel and limited-edition mugs – along with winter accessories such as gloves. The chain’s founder, Mohamed Matar Al Falasi, noted that the Courchevel move represented both pride and opportunity, and a fitting setting to share Saddle’s approach to hospitality, design and coffee culture.

Startling figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics see that 195k people, under the age of thirty-five, have left the country and moved overseas in the year to 30 June 2025, driven by many factors including rising rents, higher taxes, a tough job market, a hostile business friendly environment and rising crime rates. It appears that Dubai could be the number one target for many of these leavers escaping from an increasingly depressing economic climate, rising debt, fewer graduate vacancies and a government that seems to have lost the plot along the way. Dubai, not only offers year-round sun, but a progressive government, a booming job market, tax-free salaries, world class infrastructure and a business-friendly environment.

The Roads and Transport Authority posted that a total of 2.837 million passengers used Dubai’s public transport during the New Year’s Eve  celebrations – a 13.4% increase compared to a year earlier.

With thirty-one Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements signed, and fourteen already in force, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, has been in Egypt, with a high-level government delegation, in negotiations to secure a CEPA with that country. Technicalities of the agreement are being sorted, including product rules of origin, regulations for factories operating in free zones, trade in services, and digital commerce. The UAE minister met with his Egyptian counterpart, Hassan Al-Khatib, to review the progress being made, whilst expressing. a strong commitment to further expand and deepen their bilateral economic relations. Last year, non-oil trade between the two nations, increased by 21.0% to US$ 8.4 billion.

The approved fuel prices, by the Ministry of Energy, are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. January has seen monthly decreases for petrol, (between 6.26% to 6.73%), whilst diesel prices moved 10.55% lower. The breakdown for a litre of fuel prices in January 2026 is as follows:

			Jan 26	Dec 25	Mthly	Jan 25	YTD
			US$	US$		US$
	Super 98		0.689	0.736	-6.39%	0.711	-3.09%
	Special 95		0.659	0.703	-6.26%	0.681	-3.23%
	E Plus 91		0.638	0.684	-6.73%	0.662	-3.63%
	Diesel		0.695	0.777	-10.55%	0.73	-4.79%

The DFM opened the week on Monday 29 December on 6,114 points, and having gained two hundred and ninety-seven points, (5.1%), the previous four weeks, closed twenty points lower (0.3%), to close the week on 6,114 points, by 02 January 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.13 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.04 to close on US$ 3.86 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.76 US$ 7.89, US$ 2.60 and US$ 0.45 and closed on US$ 0.76, US$ 7.79, US$ 2.36 and US$ 0.45. On 02 January, trading was at one hundred and ninety-six million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-seven million dollars, compared to one hundred and seventy-two million shares, with a value of US$ fifty-two million dollars, on 26 December.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 December at 6,047, was 1,984 points (48.8%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.24, and had gained US$ 1.59, to close 2025 at US$ 3.83. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.65 and US$ 0.43 and closed on 31 December 2025 at US$ 0.74, US$ 7.59, US$ 2.53 and US$ 0.45.  

By 02 January 2026, Brent, US$ 1.09 (1.8%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.90, (1.5%), to close on US$ 60.29. Gold, US$ 411 (10.0%) higher the previous four weeks, shed US$ 213 (4.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,324 on 02 January. Silver was trading at a record US$ 72.02 – US$ 5.27 (7.9%) higher on the week.  

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 12.58 (16.8%), to close 31 December 2025 on US$ 60.91. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of December, the yellow metal had gained US$ 1,594 (60.7%) and was trading at US$ 4,341. Silver was trading at US$ 70.60 – US$ 27.45 (94.7%) higher YTD from its 01 January price of US$ 28.99.

As it starts the new year, and with a regular budget of US$ 3.45 billion, (6.5% higher on the year), the United Nations is facing financial problems, as it prepares to shrink its workforce by 19%; the one hundred and ninety-three-member General Assembly approved the spending plan after weeks of negotiations. Excluding the likes of peacekeeping missions and specialised agencies such as UNESCO and the WHO, this budget only applies to core UN operations.  

2025 was a year when global sovereign wealth funds amassed a record US$ 15 trillion in assets under management in a year of tech stocks surging in value. Global SWF estimated that, in total, SVWs invested US$ 66.0 billion into AI and digitalisation last year, led by ME entities, with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co, Kuwait Investment Authority and Qatar Investment Authority’s investing US$ 12.9 billion, US$ 6.0 billion and US$ 4.0 billion in 2025.

The main seven Gulf wealth funds accounted for 43% of all capital invested by state-owned investors globally at a record US$ 126 billion. The standout contributor was Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund’s US$ 36.2 billion, with its acquisition of Electronic Arts Inc, making up the bulk of that figure. Notwithstanding that deal, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala was the most active sovereign wealth fund, investing a record US$ 32.7 billion over forty transactions. The US stands out with US$ 13.2 trillion in assets under management by state-owned investors, followed by China with US$ 8.2 trillion and the UAE at US$ 2.9 trillion. Over the year, the US was the leading destination for state-owned investments, with 2025 investments 91.3% higher at US$ 131.8 billion, whist investments into China were 58.2%, lower at US$ 4.3 billion.

Beyoncé has become the fifth global musician to be declared a billionaire by Forbes, following in the shoes of Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Bruce Springsteen and her husband Jay-Z. Her 2023 Renaissance World Tour grossed nearly US$ 600 million, making her one of the biggest pop music icons in the world alongside Taylor Swift. The ratings agency estimated that her ‘Cowboy Carter’ tour – which included guest appearances from Jay-Z, two of their three children and former Destiny’s Child bandmates – sold over US$ 400 million in ticket sales and a further US$ 50 million in merchandise, whist a film she produced of her concert performance posted  US$ 44 million in gross box office sales, of which she picked up 50% to add to her coffers. A special halftime show for Netflix’s first Christmas Day NFL game amassed an estimated US$ 50 million, on top of US$ 10 million for a string of Levi’s commercials,

The US Department of Justice has announced that Walt Disney has agreed to pay a US$ 10 million civil penalty as part of a settlement to resolve allegations it violated child privacy laws in some videos uploaded to YouTube, as ‘Made for Kids’, by failing to properly label some videos it uploaded. This allowed the entertainment giant to collect personal data from children younger than thirteen years old and use that information for targeted advertising. The law requires websites, apps and other online services, aimed at children under thirteen, to notify parents about what personal information they collect and obtain verifiable parental consent before collecting such information. The case had been referred to the DOJ by the Federal Trade Commission.

Hundreds of travellers and New Year’s Eve revellers have been left stranded after a power supply problem halted Eurostar trains between London, Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels. The company advised people not to come to the station unless they already have a ticket to travel or postpone their journeys until another time. It seems that an overhead power supply problem and a failed Le Shuttle train, (which transport vehicles between England and France), were the problems.

The Revel Collective, which also owns twenty-two Peach Pubs and bars trading under the Revolucion de Cuba name, is in danger of its shareholders being wiped out unless an early deal is reached. The company trades from sixty-two locations but is facing the prospect of collapse if it does not finalise transactions to sell its assets. It has set a deadline for bids by 09 January in an urgent move to conclude a deal and save the enterprise. Neos Hospitality, one of the UK’s leading operators of late-night drinking venues, is among the parties which had expressed interest in buying some of The Revel Collective’s sites. The company also announced the suspension of trading in its shares.

It appears that UK’s biggest household gas and electricity supplier, Octopus Energy Group, could be selling up to 20% of its stake in its software arm, Kraken Technologies, which is valued at between US$ 9.0 billion to US$ 10.0 billion; it has already lined up a syndicate of investors including D1 Capital Partners, a leading investor in technology businesses, the fund management giant Fidelity and an arm of Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. The company has engaged Goldman Sachs to handle the Kraken demerger. WithKraken valued at US$ 10.0billion, the whole group, including the retail supply business, could be worth more than US$ 20.0 billion – double the value it was estimated to be worth just twelve months ago.

Everyman Media Group’s chief executive, Alex Scrimgeour, has left his position, with immediate effect, to be replaced on an interim basis by non-executive director Farah Golant; he had held that position since January 2021, after heading French restaurant chain Cote Brasserie since 2015. This news follows three weeks after the cinema chain, with forty-nine venues across the UK, issued a trading update where it cut its forecasts for revenue and earnings, sending its shares down 20%; it expects lower forecasts of 5.8% for 2025 revenues, at US$ 154.7 million, and for underlying earnings of 15.6% at US$ 22.7 million. Although Chairman Philip Jacobson praised Mr Scrimgeour for having “played a pivotal role in the team that successfully led the business through its recovery from Covid, more than doubling revenue”, its share price had slumped 76% during his five-year tenure.

In October 2024, the Commonwealth Bank was fined US$ 5.0 million by the Australian Communications and Media Authority for bombarding customers with some one hundred and seventy million messages, with no way of unsubscribing. CBA was caught pushing rewards programs, insurance, credit and loan products and bank promotions onto millions of customers, including some who had never consented to them or had asked for them to be removed. It is reported that CBA was able to convince the bank watchdog to push back the announcement until after its 2024 annual general meeting, despite it having been caught in a massive breach of spam laws. This freed the bank’s senior managers from having to face embarrassing headlines or hostile questions from shareholders at the AGM. It also escaped damaging news headlines, prior to the AGM, that would have pointed to the bank being one of the worst corporate spammers in the country. The regulator is under pressure over its close relationships with some of the companies it oversees, and, to the neutral observer, it does seem that this watchdog has lost its bite as it often jumps to the piper’s tune – and not for the first time.

Indeed, this year, the bank has again received a ‘Choice’s’ Shonky award for refusing to transfer US$ 180 million after the Australian Securities and Investment Commission had found many of the major banks had kept customers, who were on Centrelink income in fee charging accounts, when they should have automatically been transferred into low or no fee accounts. Whilst most banks agreed to repay the money, CBA refused; weeks later, it declared a US$ 6.67 billion, (AED 10.0 billion), profit. The Shonky award has been in existence for twenty years, and this was the fourth time, the bank has been a ‘beneficiary’.

Although the Royal Mail can trace its history back to 1516 – allowing the UK to claim to be the first country in the world to deliver letters – Denmark, after four hundred and one years, is the first nation to end its letter delivery service after 401 years, with PostNord noting that there had been a “major decline” in letter sending, in favour of electronic means of communication. The number of letters being sent in Denmark has dropped by 99% this century in the past 25 years – from 1.5 billion in 2000 to 110 million last year. Consequently, the cost of a postage stamp, for a standard letter, had risen to US$ 6.84. PostNord said that about a third of the current workforce will be retrenched and that it will now focus solely on its profitable parcel delivery service. 67% of its 1.5k red post-boxes were sold at an average price of US$ 472, within three hours; two hundred more will be auctioned and the rest will go to museums.

In the first eleven months of 2025, China reported an annual 3.6% hike in the number of cross-regional passenger trips at 61.87 billion, with operational freight and highway freight volumes rising 3.5% to 53.54 billion tonnes, and 3.6% to 39.49 billion tonnes, over the same period. The country’s port container throughput grew 4.4% to reach 16.75 billion tonnes, with domestic and foreign trade cargo throughput moving 4.5% and 4.1% higher respectively.

For the first time ever, the Republic of Korea posted an annual export figure of over US$ 700 billion to become only the sixth country to reach that total after the US, Germany, China, Japan and the Netherlands; years earlier it had become the seventh country to hit the US$ 600 billion mark – a sign that it has been posting faster export growth compared with other major competitors. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources attributed the strong performance to robust shipments of semiconductors, along with key products such as automobiles, ships and bio-related goods, as well as record levels of exports by the country’s SMEs.

Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi’s administration has approved a 2026 budget, starting next April, of US$ 783 billion – a record for Japan’s economy and 6.2% higher than the previous year. She has had to solve two conflicting economic problems to meet the growing concerns of rising public debt, (and having to go carefully on issuing new gilts), along with continuing a proactive fiscal policy; new government bond issues will rise by 3.5% to US$ 189.71 billion whilst tax revenues at a record US$ 536.17 billion are set to increase by 7.6%, and help fund  the increased spending, but they will not fully offset rising debt serving costs, allied with a higher spend on social welfare and defence. Meanwhile, reliance on debt is set to decline to 24.2% – the lowest level since 1998. The budget will be presented to parliament next month.

Last Friday, a judge found former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak guilty in four charges of abuse of power and twenty-one charges of money laundering and jailed him for fifteen years. This was his second major trial for misappropriating US$ 570 million from the nation’s sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). The verdict comes after seven years of legal wrangling and involved evidence from seventy-six witnesses called to the stand. The disgraced seventy-two-year-old was already in jail relating to another case involving 1MDB – a mega global scandal involving politicians, film stars and financiers that saw some US$ 4.5 billion siphoned off from the fund. In 2020, he had been found guilty of embezzlement and was convicted of abuse of power, money laundering and breach of trust over US$ 10 million transferred from SRC International – a former unit of 1MDB – into his private accounts; he was sentenced to twelve years in prison. The latest case concerns a larger sum of money received by his personal bank account in 2013, with the disgraced politician claiming that he had believed the money was a donation from the late Saudi King Abdullah. The political fall-out from 1MDB was that in 2018, Najib’s Barisan Nasional coalition, which had governed the country since its 1957 independence, lost power after sixty-one years. It would probably be a different Malaysia today, if the scandal had been covered up.

Syria has unveiled a series of redesigned banknotes which began circulating yesterday, 01 January 2026, alongside the old currency for a ninety-day transition period. The new Syrian pound has removed two zeros, from the old denomination, to try and restore confidence in the economy after years of corruption and mismanagement under the five-decade despotic rule of Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad, as part of a sweeping monetary reform aimed at stabilising the national currency. The redenomination will convert every one hundred old pounds into one new pound, effectively simplifying transactions without changing underlying values. Central Bank Governor Abdul Qader Husariya said the step was part of a comprehensive institutional strategy to restore confidence and achieve sustainable growth. It comes at a time when the currency is really struggling. Before the 2011 troubles, the pound was trading at fifty to the greenback – now it hovers around the eleven thousand level.

Major trouble is brewing in Iran, as hundreds of students, (from four of Tehran’s universities), join shopkeepers and bazaar merchants in protests over the country’s soaring cost of living. The rial lost nearly 50% of its value against the US dollar in 2025, with inflation reaching 42.5% in December and the price of food rising as much as 72%. The demonstrations are the first major protests since Israeli and US strikes on Iran in June, which prompted outpourings of patriotic solidarity. The country is still reeling from Trump’s 2018 sanctions, during his first term, that ended an international deal over the country’s nuclear programme. In September, the UN reimposed sanctions on the country. Iran is still under intense international pressure, with Trump warning that he may approve another round of Israeli airstrikes if Tehran resumes work on ballistic missiles or a nuclear weapons programme. Whether the current unrest is enough to ruffle the country’s clerical rulers remains to be seen, but it sems highly likely that 2026 will see more of the Iranian troubles in the news.

In retaliation to the US selling arms to Taiwan, the Xi-Ping administration has announced sanctions targeting ten individuals, (being the founder of defence firm Anduril Industries and nine senior executives from the sanctioned firms), and twenty US defence firms, including Boeing’s St. Louis branch, Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation and L3Harris Maritime Services. The US State Department announced their displeasure at this move saying it strongly objected to the Chinese action, which freezes any assets the companies and individuals hold in China and bars domestic organisations and individuals from doing business with them. It was only last week that Washington announced a US$ 11.1 billion arms package to Taiwan – the largest ever US weapons package for the island. It must be remembered that China views democratically-governed Taiwan as part of its own territory, with its foreign ministry commenting that “the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-US relations”, and that “any provocative actions that cross the line on the Taiwan issue will be met with a strong response from China”. Watch this space!

The following table traces how certain indices have performed over the years. Gold and silver have had record years, with 65.44% and 144.6% surges, to US$ 4,341.10 and US$ 70.60 respectively. It is hard to see them both repeating their performances this year and they will do well to record just single digit advances in 2026. Brent, at US$ 60.91, is 29.1% down on its December 2022 level and is looking at another tough year but could top US$ 70 sometime in 2026. Following two years of double-digit growth in 2022 and 2023, iron ore has hit the buffers, with declines of 23.1% and 5.6% posted in 2024 and 2025; the metal could keep its head above water in 2026. Following a stellar 70.5% surge in 2024, it was no surprise to see a smaller, (8.1%), rise, to US$ 348.5 in 2025; notwithstanding supply constraints, expect coffee prices to push slightly higher this year, as global consumption climbs steadily head north. For the fourth consecutive year, cotton prices have fallen; on the year, by 6.0%, to US$ 64.30 and over the past five years by 43.0%. Prices will flatten in 2026. Over the three years to December 2024, copper prices had declined by 10.8% but in 2025 managed to change the trend posting an impressive 42.7% rise to US$ 5.68. It could well see low double-digit price increases this year. In 2024, the strength of the US$ came to the forefront in Q4, with annual rises, for sterling, the Ozzie dollar, the euro and rouble of 1.73%, 9.24%, 6.24% and 18.18% at US$ 1.251, US$ 0.619, US$ 1.036 and US$ 0.009. This was all reversed in 2025, with the four currencies improving by 7.5%, 7.8%, 13.2% and 44.4% to US$ 1.35, US$ 0.67, US$ 1.17 and US$ 0.013 against the weakening greenback. 2026 will probably see a further decline in the dollar, as the Trump administration make US imports cheaper.

As had been the case in 2024, all five bourses continued to move higher, with all posting double digit gains. The local DFM, having posted a 27.0% jump in 2024, was 17.2% higher last year; it will probably hit double figure gains in 2026 but slightly lower than its 2025 return. The FTSE 100 posted a welcome 21.5% rise in 2025 following a 23.3% jump in 2024; it will have to work hard not to lose some of its biggest companies to US and European bourses, and if successful should see a rise of under 10.0% in 2026. Like its London counterpart, the S&P 500 posted a double-digit growth of 16.4% but down on the 23.3% hike recorded in 2024. Having registered a 14.7% increase in its market cap, the Shanghai CSI300 posted a 17.7% rise, to 4,630, in 2025; more of the same is expected this year. Yet again, Bitcoin was an accident waiting to happen; having peaked in 2025 at US$ 121.4k, and having started the year on US$ 93.3k, it ended the year on US$ 87.5k. There is every chance, it will hit at least US$ 105k during 2026 but will probably end the year below US$ 100k.

			%age	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec	31-Dec
		Unit	Rise	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Gold		oz	65.44%	4,341.10	2,624	2074	1,830	1,831	1,895
Iron Ore		lb	-5.57%	97.84	103.61	134.7	121.3	106.7	155.7
Oil -Brent		bl	-18.58%	60.91	74.81	77.2	85.91	77.78	51.8
Coffee		lb	8.61%	348.45	320.84	188.2	174	226.75	128.25
Cotton		lb	-5.97%	64.30	68.38	81.2	83.4	112.65	78.12
Silver		oz	144.46%	70.60	28.88	24.1	24.18	23.36	26.41
Copper		lb	42.71%	5.68	3.98	3.9	3.82	4.46	3.52
AUD			7.75%	0.67	0.619	0.682	0.681	0.726	0.77
GBP			7.51%	1.35	1.251	1.273	1.21.0	1.353	1.359
Euro			13.22%	1.17	1.036	1.105	1.073	1.137	1.218
Rouble			44.44%	0.01	0.009	0.011	0.014	0.013	0.014
FTSE 100			21.51%	9,931	8,173	7733	7,452	7,403	6,481
CSI300			17.66%	4,630	3,935	3431	3,872	4,940	5,212
S&P 500			16.37%	6,845	5,882	4769	3,840	4,766	3,756
DFMI			17.21%	6,047	5,159	4,016	3,336	3,196	2,492
ASX 200			10.54%	9,019	8,159	7590	7,039	7,844	6,587
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2025 Dubai Forecasts

• In 2024, there had been a 4.664% hike to 3.825 million. The latest available official population figure for Dubai was 4.044 million on 13 November 2025, so a year end estimate would be 4.080 million – 255k, (6.666%) higher on the year. This year, it is estimated that with a 6.0% increase, Dubai’s population will rise to 4.325 million by 31 December 2026
• By the end of 2024, there were 857.0k residential units – 696.1k apartments and 160.9k villas – a 81.2:18.8 ratio; no official 2025 figures are available but estimates range from 50k to 70k, so assuming 60k, there will be 48.7k apartments and 11.3k villas added to the portfolio by the end of 2025, giving a total 744.8k apartments and 172.2k villas – 917k residential units. Assuming that there will be a further 90k residential units handed over in 2026, (73.1k apartments and 16.9k villas), the new portfolio will be 1.007 million units – (817.7k apartments and 189.3k villas). This blog uses a 5.3:4.1 villa:apartment occupancy so that by the end of 2026 there will be enough accommodation to house 3.352 million in apartments and 1.003 million in villas – a total of 4.355 million – almost in line with the 4.325 million forecast population.  However, estimates are that some 10% of housing will either be empty, used as second homes, Airbnb, renovation etc and therein lies the problem that can only be solved by increased supply
• there will be a marked increase in the number of “new” residents moving to Dubai from overseas and the northern emirates (with an estimated one million a day adding to the traffic problems and increasing pressure on the emirate’s infrastructure and facilities)
• there is no doubt that property prices have skyrocketed since the pandemic and average prices will continue to move higher – in 2025, expect a lower double-digit growth; there could be a small adjustment at the bottom end of the market
• by the end of 2025, the UAE government had signed thirty-one Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, with countries and international blocs,  with fourteen are already in force. This year, it will sign at least twenty new CEPAs in a bid to achieve the administration’s aim of targeting US$ 1.09 trillion in total trade value by 2031 and doubling the size of the wider economy by 2030
• having jumped 89.2% in the previous five years to 31 December 2025, including last year’s growth of 17.2% to 6,047 points, the DFM will maintain its upward momentum into the new year, with a similar growth pattern in 2026 closing at 5,150 points
• having delivered the highest level of profit before tax (US$ 6.20 billion), and revenue (US$ 39.6 billion), last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2025, expect Emirates to deliver enhanced figures with revenue rising by more than 7% and a double-digit profit growth
• DXB will record a record number of passengers reaching ninety-four million in 2026
• Dubai’s debt, of around US$ 111 billion, will remain steady at around 22% of GDP, (down from 70% in 2021), helped by several factors including its strong resurgence post-Covid, asset sales of several GREs, increased dividends from associated companies, the introduction of corporation tax and a further surge in tourism
• Dubai’s GDP grew 4.4% in H1, with the GDP reaching US$ 65.67 billion. By the end of 2026, the emirate could well be posting growth levels of over 5.2%, driven by the non-oil sector. To date, it appears that the effects of geopolitical tensions have been minimal
• further growth in the hospitality sector will see higher hotel revenues at US$ 8.4 billion, occupancy rates topping 81% in 2026, with guest numbers increasing to 19.2 million
• two more government-related companies listed on the DFM
• one Dubai family IPO to be listed on the DFM

2024 Global Forecasts

• in 2025, the global economy slowed to 2.6%, not helped by geo-political problems, with 2026 seeing similar growth numbers
• interest rates will nudge slowly lower
• G20 headline inflation eased in 2025 – down from the 6.1% level in 2023. This year more of the same with levels of between 3% – 4%
• global debt stands at record levels of around US$ 300 trillion, as concerns mount about debt sustainability. In 2026, the situation will only worsen impacting the poorer nations who, yet again, will bear the brunt, with the poor becoming poorer and the rich richer
• geopolitical tensions will not go away but just move from location to location, with West Africa, Iran, Taiwan, Cambodia and Yemen places to watch. Hopefully there will be more effort to end the Ukraine crisis. Wherever these problems occur, they will damage the health of global economies including those of the US and China
• many developed nations should heed the words of the German Chancellor – “the welfare state as we know it today can no longer be financed by our economy”
• expect to see either the UK PM or Chancellor and the French President Emmanuel Macron out of office this year
• there will be minimal growth in the EU with Germany, (and maybe France and Italy) expected to go into recession sometime in 2026
• Australia, India, Brazil and parts of Europe will be hit by a mix of floods and record high temperatures which will impact global economic growth
• oil prices will hover around US$ 65 during another year of volatile trading that will see production two million bpd higher
• despite all the talk circulating around climate control, 2026 global coal demand is projected to have grow again – probably in the region of 1%. China, India and ASEAN countries consume more than 75% of total demand, (compared to 35% at the beginning of the century). Despite all the rhetoric, coal production continues to move higher, with China leading the way by a country mile
• the so-called “Magnificent 7” – Alphabet, (62.4%) Amazon, (7.0%), Apple, (6.1%), Meta,(12.5%) Microsoft, (14.7%), Nvidia, (37.8%) and Tesla, (15.4%) – grew an average 22.3% in 2025, having gained 63% in value 2024 and 75% in 2023, another good year is expected in 2026 but slightly down compared to 2025. (They account for about 34.3% of the S&P 500 market cap)
• the UK economy continues to struggle, with relatively high, sticky inflation, a labour market nudging lower, weak demand and high energy costs (especially compared to many countries in Europe), along with continuing domestic/global economic uncertainty. The prognosis is not good.

Although we are sheltered somewhat here in Dubai, whatever happens in 2026 remains to be seen but one thing is for sure – we are a lot better off than many others. The emirate continues to be a beacon for peace, prosperity, security and business confidence and one of the best places on the planet in which to work, live and enjoy life! Paradise City!