A Little Main In A Big World! 30 January 2026
Dubai Waterfront was the location this week that recorded two plots of adjacent land, encompassing 24.3 million sq ft, becoming the largest mortgage transaction, at US$ 3.02 billion, in Dubai’s realty history; this equates to US$ 124.4 per sq ft, and is another indicator of continued consumer confidence in the high-value land and waterfront locations sector.
Earlier in the month, Binghatti announced details for its upcoming US$ 8.17 billion ‘Mercedes Benz City,’ located in Meydan. This week, it was Sobha Realty’s turn to amaze Dubai’s property sector, launching ‘Sobha Sanctuary’, a sprawling US$ 13.62 billion, 37.5 million sq ft development, located off the Al Ain Road, close to Sobha Elwood. The eight-year project, comprising 18k apartments and 2k villas, will see the first handovers of some 0.25k villas in Q3 2029, with prices starting at US$ 1.09 billion. ‘Sobha Sanctuary’ will be built around a central destination park, (from which four green corridors will extend across the site), a community mall, and a large wellness centre; as well as including 50k trees, there will be a six km leisure loop and a wider nine km wellness loop along the perimeter. ‘Sobha Sanctuary’ is planned to include two international schools, a hospital facility, and a large retail offering, distributed across the masterplan.
Binghatti was in the news again with the signing of a partnership agreement, with Dubai Municipality and the General Construction Company, to develop Hewi Al Barsha and Hewi Muhaisnah. The partnership supports Dubai Municipality’s efforts to strengthen community engagement, enhance quality of life, and reinforce the role of neighbourhood spaces, in line with Dubai’s broader urban and social development plans. The agreement sees DM continuing a collaborative development model that brings together public and private sector expertise to create new community destinations. It added that, “the new partnership with Binghatti and the General Construction Company builds on the success of the first phase of Hewi Dubai, in Nad Al Sheba 4, which reintroduced the concept of the Hewi as a contemporary community space rooted in Emirati identity”. The Hewi Dubai initiative is one of Dubai Municipality’s strategic projects, developed in collaboration with the Dubai Future Foundation, which aims to create contemporary community spaces that encourage interaction among residents and provide welcoming environments for senior citizens, children, and families to engage in outdoor and social activities.
Last year saw Arada tripling its home sales, valued at US$ 4.72 billion, with the number of units more than doubling from 2.17k units to 5.14k. Consequently, total revenue more than doubled to US$ 1.83 billion, earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation rose 174% to US$ 437 million, attributable to higher project activity, faster absorption rates and expanding contributions from hospitality, retail, wellness and entertainment verticals. During the year, it launched several high profile projects – Akala, positioned as the world’s first precision wellness destination, along with Masaar 2 and Masaar 3 in Sharjah; it also accelerated construction activity, awarding US$ 3.46 billion worth of contracts for developments including Madar Mall in Aljada, Armani Beach Residences on Palm Jumeirah, Anantara Sharjah Resort and Residences, and multiple phases of Masaar 2. As with other developers, Arada benefitted from record 2024 property sales in both Dubai and Sharjah – by 29% to US$ 185.29 billion, and by 64% to US$ 17.87 billion – driven by a combination of population growth, business-friendly reforms, long-term visas, infrastructure investment and continued economic diversification across the UAE. On the international stage, the developer invested US$ 918 million to acquire a 75% stake in UK developer Regal, as well as buying an 80% holding in the Thameside West mixed-use development in the UK capital. It also entered into Australia, with advanced plans for its first Sydney projects. This year, Arada is to launch new projects across the UAE, the UK and Australia, complete the first Masaar master plan and hand over its first homes in Dubai.
According to Savills, Dubai maintained its 2024 position as the global capital of branded residences last year – and it is odds on that the emirate will still be number one come the end of 2026. The property consultancy anticipates a 19% growth in 2025, to nine hundred and nine, with an impressive two hundred and twenty new projects added last year. Dubai accounted for sixty-four completed schemes and eighty-seven in the pipeline, with second and third places taken by South Florida and New York, with forty-eight/fifty-five and thirty-two/four. The Savills Global Residential Consultancy’s Branded Residences 2025/2026 report ranked Dubai as the leading city for housing the highest number of branded residences, followed by Miami, New York, Sao Paulo, London, Cairo, Istanbul, Bangkok, Fort Lauderdale, Phuket and Mexico City. There are approximately close to one hundred and fifty branded residences project active in Dubai, with estimates adding a further two hundred and fifty by 2030. Demand is driven by a myriad of factors including capital security, global connectivity, a highly attractive tax environment and led by progressive laws and regulations.
This week, Dubai’s AVENEW Development signed an agreement with Hilton to open Waldorf Astoria Dubai Islands and Waldorf Astoria Residences Dubai Islands. The former will have one hundred and fifty guest rooms and suites, with features including a curated selection of dining experiences, an outdoor pool, a dedicated kids’ pool/club, a fitness studio and a tranquil spa. There will be one hundred and twenty branded residences that will have a full access to the hotel’s facilities. This branded project represents AVENEW’s second branded residence on Dubai Islands and its sixth overall development within the master-planned waterfront community. This project is another sign of Dubai’s dominance in the luxury hospitality and branded residential sector, with this particular segment having grown from a niche market into a leading global asset class.
As part of a wider strategy to modernise the emirate’s building sector, Dubai Municipality has announced a global challenge to construct the world’s first residential villa built entirely using robotic systems. Managed in partnership with Zacua Ventures and the Würth Group, and with delivery through an international consortium of more than twenty-five technology companies and academic institutions, the initiative’s main aim is to construct a viable, scalable model for the global housing market. The announcement was made at 04 ConTech Valley, at Expo City, with the hub having been established to serve as a dedicated centre for testing next-generation materials and urban infrastructure. A new ConTech Working Group has been formed, in collaboration with Dubai Chambers, to provide a structured platform for government entities, developers, and researchers to coordinate on regulatory standards and investment pathways. Interestingly, DM and Sobha Realty have launched the 70-70 Strategy that aims to shift 70% of construction tasks to off-site manufacturing and to achieve 70% automation within those factories by 2030.
HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid launched the DIFC Zabeel District – a landmark expansion of the Dubai International Financial Centre which will be further enhanced as the leading financial hub for the MEA and S Asia, whilst consolidating Dubai’s reputation as the region’s preferred destination for business and lifestyle. The development, which will come in at around US$ 27.25 billion, will cover more than seven million sq ft of land whilst offering 17.7 million sq ft of built-up space. Developed in six phases, DIFC Zabeel District is expected to open to the public in 2030, with the full masterplan set for completion by 2040. The DIFC Zabeel District will offer a mix of commercial and residential spaces, anchored from a central boulevard, a conference centre, hotels, upscale retail offerings and cutting-edge technology infrastructure. Shiekh Mohammed also offered words of wisdom saying, “Dubai is a story of limitless ambition, built on future‑focused achievements and a commitment to shaping change rather than waiting for it”. He also commented that the new district will enable DIFC to host more than 42k companies, support a workforce of over 125k and dedicate more than one million sq ft to future technologies and AI.
HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid visited the thirty-first edition of Gulfood, the world’s leading food and beverage sourcing event, marking the largest edition in its history. For the first time, the five-day event covered two locations, encompassing more than 280k sq mt, at the Dubai Exhibition Centre at Expo City Dubai and the Dubai World Trade Centre. It featured over 8.5k exhibitors from one hundred and ninety-five countries and more than 1.5 million products across all segments of the global food industry. The Dubai Ruler toured the newly expanded Dubai Exhibition Centre, where he highlighted the importance of innovation, advanced technologies and efficient markets in shaping the future of the food industry.
If plans go through, Ithra Dubai hopes to build the world’s first ‘Gold Street’, as part of the newly launched Dubai Gold District. The purpose-built destination will bring together gold retail, bullion trading and wholesale activity in one location, as well as becoming a major tourist attraction. The developer noted that ‘Gold Street’ will sit within a wider development that consolidates gold and jewellery retail, wholesale trading, bullion services and investment-linked businesses in a single destination. Developers said ‘Gold Street’ is designed to complement the district’s retail and trading infrastructure rather than operate as a standalone attraction.
Khalaf Habtoor’s Al Habtoor Group is threatening legal action against the Lebanese government and the Banque du Liban for violating the agreements, which the group claims to have lost over US$ 1.7 billion. Over the years, the Dubai-based Group has invested heavily in the country, including sectors such as hospitality, retail, leisure and real estate. This week, it issued a statement which said, “over recent years, these investments have suffered severe and sustained harm as a direct result of measures and restrictions imposed by Lebanese authorities and the Banque du Liban, which have prevented the Group from freely accessing and transferring lawfully deposited funds held in Lebanese banks”. Having “exhausted all reasonable and good-faith efforts to resolve this dispute amicably”, it added that there is “no other alternative” but to “proceed to take all legal measures necessary to protect and enforce its rights under applicable international agreements and legal frameworks”. The group also noted that it’s “a legal obligation (for the Lebanese government) arising under binding bilateral agreements and international investment treaties, concluded with the UAE, which impose clear duties on Lebanon to ensure protection, fair treatment, and effective remedies for investors”.
By the end of its 2024-25 fiscal year, Emirates’ payroll was at 124k. Adel Al Redha, its COO, has posted that “we continue to hire to meet our needs as we will receive more aircraft, which will be deployed to new destinations or current routes to increase frequency. Over the next decade, we will need to recruit close to 20k operational staff, including cabin crew, pilots, engineers, technicians, and airport staff”. With the airline recruiting UAE nationals as part of its Emiratisation programme, he added, “we have different programmes to qualify UAE nationals in engineering, management, IT and cadet programmes. We injected this time, based on the capacity in the engineering and cadet programmes, about one hundred and twenty nationals per year. We plan to increase it by increasing our training capacity”.
Emirates has signed an extended bilateral interline agreement with Nigeria’s Air Peace that expands air connectivity between West Africa, the UAE and the UK, giving passengers access to more destinations, through single-ticket travel, with through-checked baggage. Currently, thirteen Nigerian locations can be utilised but the agreement will see new connections to Banjul in The Gambia, Dakar in Senegal via Abidjan, Freetown in Sierra Leone and Monrovia in Liberia via Accra. He commented that, “enhancing our interline partnership with Air Peace allows us to expand our footprint across more of Africa, creating new opportunities for people to fly better with Emirates, while helping international tourists explore more of the region, via Lagos”. Air Peace, which operates a fleet of more than fifty aircraft, including Boeing 777s, Boeing 737s and Embraer jets, continues to expand its domestic, regional and international footprint.
Bad news for Dubai motorists according to The TomTom Traffic Index concluding that, last year, the average distance driven in fifteen minutes was 7.8 km, 0.2km less than in 2024, with the average speed during rush hour at 26.3km in 2025 – 1km slower than in 2024. Dubai motorists drove at a slower speed last year, at 70.5 kph, 2.1 kph slower on the year. One interesting fact noted that motorists spent more hours on the roads in 2025, with the average travel time for a ten km drive increasing by 39.4% to 19.1 minutes, up from 13.7 minutes in the previous year. It is estimated that seventy-two hours were lost because of traffic jams – 9.5% higher on figures posted in 2024. The main factor driving these startling figures continues to be more cars on the road, now totalling 4.65 million, because of the population rising by over 6% to more than four million. On top of that statistic, there are more inter-emirate drivers working in – or traversing through – Dubai.
This is more than the time reported earlier this month by the Inrix Global Traffic Scorecard, which said that Dubai motorists lost around forty-five hours in traffic jams in 2025, compared to thirty-five hours in 2024. Morning is seen to be the best part of the day to travel – with motorists taking 18.4 minutes to travel 10km in the morning, compared to 26.3 minutes for the same drive home in the evening; the average speed decreases from 32.1km/h, in the morning, to 22.6km/h during the evening rush hour. It would be interesting to note the cost of traffic to Dubai’s economy.
The Central Bank of the UAE is trialling the region’s first biometric payment solution that would introduce the use of a payee’s face and palm for verification purposes – and finally eliminating the need for physical cards or mobile devices. No timeline has been announced for expanding the system, which is being rolled out through the CBUAE’s Sandbox Programme and Innovation Hub at the Emirates Institute of Finance, beyond the pilot phase.
Late Wednesday, the Central Bank of the UAE announced it had decided to maintain the Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility at 3.65%. This decision was taken following the Federal Reserve maintaining its rates unchanged, The UAE central bank also maintained the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at fifty bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities.
This week, Emirates NBD posted record profits with all major indicators heading north including:
- profit before tax US$ 8.12 billion up 10.0% driven by soaring loan growth, resilient customer deposits and continued investments in digital and regional expansion
- net profit US$ 6.54 billion up 4.0%
- operating profit US$ 9.35 billion up 13%. offsetting a higher impairment charge fifteen times higher at US$ 409 million
- total income US$ 13.43 billion up 12.5% supported by broad‑based momentum across both funded and non‑funded income lines
- net interest income US$ 9.67 billion up 10%
- non‑funded income US$ 3.76 billion up 18% reflecting the Group’s diversified revenue streams and higher transaction and fee‑based activity
- balance sheet US$ 317.17 billion up17% crossed the US$ 27.25 billion, (AED 1 trillion), milestone for the first time
Other balance sheet items posted positive including lending, deposits and low‑cost current and savings account (CASA) balances by 24% to US$ 35.15 billion, by 17.8% to US$ 214.17 billion and by US$ 18.80 billion respectively. The non‑performing loan ratio fell 0.9% to 2.4%, with the cost‑to‑income ratio declining to 30.5%. The board has proposed an ordinary dividend of US$ 0.272 per share.
The Group’s Shariah‑compliant subsidiary, Emirates Islamic, posted a record profit before tax of US$ 1.06 billion. DenizBank, the Group’s Turkish franchise, saw its performance strengthen as inflationary pressures eased, whilst the bank’s Saudi Arabia operations continued to grow rapidly, with lending up 48%, and two new branches set to open in Q1, bringing its network to twenty-four branches.
Last year, Dubai Financial Markets witnessed increased trading activity, partly attributable to rising international participation, that resulted in the average daily trade topping US$ 189 million – its highest liquidity level in more than a decade. There were notable increases in net profit before tax, by 158% to US$ 289 million, and total revenue by 102% to US$ 349 million, helped by higher trading activity, investment income and one-off income from the sale of an investment property. The total traded value increased by 63.0% on the year. Other statistics showed that the DFM General Index rose by 17.2%, and the total market cap reached US$ 270.30 billion. Over the year, the bourse welcomed 97.4k new investors, (of which 84.0% were foreign) who accounted for 51% of total trading value, with institutional investors representing 71% of trading activity. The investor base stood at 1.25 million investors. DFM, established in 2000 and listed in 2007, is a public joint stock company, 80% owned by the Dubai Government, through Borse Dubai Limited.
The DFM opened the week on Monday 26 January on 6,484 points, and having gained three hundred and seventy points, (6.1%), the previous three weeks, shed forty-nine (0.8%), to close the week on 6,435 points, by 30 January 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous fortnight, was flat to close on US$ 4.09 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.83 US$ 8.49, US$ 2.68 and US$ 0.47, and closed on 30 January at US$ 0.82, US$ 8.47, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.45. On 30 January, trading was at two hundred and thirteen million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and thity-nine million dollars, compared to two hundred and twenty-five million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-five million dollars, on 23 January.
The bourse had opened the year on 6,047 points and, having closed on 30 January at 6,484, was 437 points (7.2%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 3.83, and had gained US$ 2.26, to close 2025 at US$ 4.09. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2026 on US$ 0.74, US$ 7.59, US$ 2.53 and US$ 0.45 and closed on 31 January 2026 at US$ 0.82, US$ 8.47, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.45.
By 30 January 2026, Brent, US$ 5.59 (9.3%) higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 4.81, (7.3%), to close on US$ 70.69. Gold, US$ 501 (11.2%) higher the previous fortnight, shed US$ 108 (2.2%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,880 on 30 January. Silver was trading at US$ 85.25 – US$ 17.70 (17.2%) lower on the week and the temporary end to a mega bull run.
Brent started the year on US$ 60.91 and US$ 9.78 higher (16.1%), to close 30 January 2025 on US$ 70.69. Gold started the year trading at US$ 4,341, and by the end of January, the yellow metal had gained US$ 439 (12.4%) and was trading at US$ 4,880. Silver started 2026, trading at US$ 70.60 and closed on 30 January US$ 14.65 higher at US$ 85.25.
Boeing expects that, over the next two decades, India and South Asia will add a further 3.29k commercial planes to expand capacity and modernise fleets. Other factors such as increasing consumer spending, helped by resilient economic growth, and a growing middle class, are demand drivers. Boeing’s previous twenty-year forecast put the number at 2.84k jets. Overall, the US plane maker is looking at adding three hundred and ninety-five wide-body jets and 2.88k single-aisle planes over the twenty-year period.
It was no surprise to read Amazon’s press release that it is planning a second major round of corporate layoffs in 2026, because the tech giant inadvertently sent an internal layoff email to some staff to that effect. Following the roughly 14k job cuts announced last October, a further 16k could be made redundant this year. The email referenced organisational changes and stated that impacted employees in the US, Canada and Costa Rica had already been notified of layoffs. What is yet unknown is whether the staff departures will not only impact AWS but potentially also divisions such as retail, Prime Video and HR. Although 30k represents a small portion of Amazon’s 1.58 million employees, who are mostly in fulfilment centres and warehouses, it is almost 10% of its corporate workforce. Amazon began the cuts on Tuesday by announcing it planned to close all remaining brick-and-mortar Fresh grocery stores and Go markets. Tech giants, including Amazon, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Microsoft, had sharply ramped up hiring during the pandemic demand surge and have lately been restructuring their workforce.
Although still waiting for a UK banking licence, Revolut has abandoned plans to buy a US lender and instead is going solo; it is hoping that this change will be a quicker route for it to acquire a US banking licence. It has also considered that the new Trump ‘easier’ regulations would help speed up the process. Europe’s most valuable fintech company, even bigger than Barclays, finally changed track, and would have been subject to tougher regulations and the requirement to maintain brick and mortar outlets.
Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla would no longer sell its original Model S and Model X vehicles and will convert factory space to manufacture its Optimus robots instead. He also added that the EV maker will more than double its investment budget this year to US$ 20.0 billion, 10% of which would go to his artificial intelligence division xAI. This latest move is part of a shift towards robotics after the company reported its first ever decline in annual revenue.
In the UK, Santander is to close forty-four more branches, with the potential loss of some three hundred jobs, citing the usual excuse that the move was a continuing response to the changing needs of its customers, as more people bank online. Less than a year ago, it had announced plans to shut ninety-five sites. After this latest news, the banking giant will be left with only two hundred and forty-four full-service branches.
On Monday, the Revel Collection confirmed that it had filed notice of an intention to appoint administrators, resulting in nearly six hundred jobs being lost; fourteen Revolution bars, six Revolucion de Cuba bars and one Peach Pub were closed with immediate effect. On the flip side, there was confirmation that the future of forty-one sites, and 1.58k jobs, had been secured. Like other businesses in the hospitality industry, it has been badly impacted by many factors including increased tax rates, reduced consumer spending, minimum pay level hikes, heightened national insurance contributions and rising energy costs. Indeed, Revel restructured last year, shutting fifteen unprofitable bars, but that exercise failed.
Also in dire trouble is The Original Factory Shop which has become the latest retailer to call in the administrators, with 1.2k jobs at risk. Only last year, a last-minute acquisition, by Modella Capital, saved it from collapsing. It is expected that TOFS, established in the late 1960s, will continue trading from its one hundred and thirty outlets during the administration process. The general feeling is that it is highly unlikely that a buyer will be found.
Earlier in the week, another retailer owned by Modella, appointed an administrator for its UK and Irish operations. The accessories chain Claire’s currently employs 1.3k whose jobs are now at risk. The usual factors, as faced by the Revel Collection, are in play as well as a poorly handled transition to a new logistics provider. Modella also owns businesses, including WH Smith’s historic high street estate, which it has rebranded as TG Jones, as well as Hobbycraft.
Recent reports indicate that the UK is being left behind in the AI race, and that it is costing more jobs than it is creating in the country; a study by Morgan Stanley, of almost 1k firms in five countries, showed that they had eliminated 11% of previous roles because of AI and that a further 12% would not be back-filled. That was partially offset by a 19% increase in new hires as a result of AI, leading to a 4% net job loss overall. The study has noted that, to date, the US has been the biggest beneficiary, creating more jobs there than it is making redundant. Although the UK posted that 23% of roles, in line with other countries, had either been eliminated or would not be back-filled, UK, with 15% more roles performed worse in comparison. Morgan Stanley’s latest study forecasts that productivity gains from AI will account for about 20% of global growth in 2027. The result showed that British companies reported an average 11.5% increase in productivity aided by AI, although US businesses reported similar gains, but created more jobs than they cut. However, a PwC survey of some 4.45k chief executives indicated that more than 50% claimed not to have “realised either revenue or cost benefits from investments in AI”.
After Indian authorities twice refused to formally advise Gautam Adani over bribery charges, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has taken a different route. The regulator has asked a New York court for permission to directly contact the Indian billionaire and his nephew, Sagar. This case involves an alleged bribery of some US$ 250 million to Indian officials to secure solar contracts for Adani Group’s renewable energy arm.
Over recent months, the Indian rupee has tested the market as its downward trend continues unabated at almost ninety-two rupees to US$ 1 – and near to twenty-five rupees to the dirham, earlier in the week. There is not just one driver behind its demise but a combination of factors including global business requiring dollars, outward forex, global rates, and a high import bill. When the greenback is seen to be strong, the demand for riskier emerging-market currencies – including the rupee – weakens. The rupee’s stress can also equate to equity outflows and global risk-off positioning, so if big overseas funds are net sellers, they convert rupees to dollars — and the rupee sinks.
Donald Trump must have been disappointed when the US Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, as he has repeatedly requested called for more cuts. Policymakers said they still see room to lower rates later if conditions change. Although the 10 – 2 vote was widely expected by the market, the meeting noted that economic activity has been “expanding at a solid pace,” while the unemployment rate showed some “signs of stabilisation.”
2021/2022 were tough years for the UK economy following the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which saw energy prices skyrocket. By the end of 2021, the BoE had maintained interest rates at just 0.1%, despite an inflation rate at a historically high 5.1%, before peaking in October 2022 at 11.1%. With the BoE target rate being 2.0%, in 2021,Andrew Bailey said that any short-term rise in prices in Britain, caused by global supply chain pressures, would not foreshadow longer-term inflation problems once the economy emerged from the pandemic. The central bank repeatedly said that price rises would be transitory in the aftermath of the pandemic and the Russian invasion. It held interest rates at 0.1% until December 2021. In its first forecast evaluation report issued late last week, it said that the combined shocks from Covid, the Russia-Ukraine war and Brexit made forecasting “particularly challenging”. The report also blamed the BoE for consistently underestimating GDP growth, while overestimating how far the unemployment would grow. It also seems to criticise the Bank for being too late to notice the surge in the cost of living, meaning interest rates did not rise quickly enough to tame rising prices. Even when those shocks subsided, inflation remained well above expectations, as workers demanded pay rises to keep pace with the rising cost of living. The Bank said that “judging the size and speed of these second-round effects was challenging”. This evaluation report follows a scathing attack of the BoE’s forecasting processes by former Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke. Its 2021 inflation forecast for the final quarter of 2022 was out by 8.2%, following a seven-fold rise in gas prices and a combination of surging consumer demand and disrupted supply chains.
There is no doubt that market-based finance firms are beginning to rattle the traditional banking sector, with Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor, commenting that “the challenge now lies in managing risks that sit beyond the banking perimeter as well as identifying and understanding new interconnections between banks and non-banks”. In recent years, the shadow banking sector has expanded to encompass a myriad of ‘bankish’ activities undertaken by institutions such as pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds, is “very large and fast-growing”. The main concerns appear to be “it is disparate in nature and opaque in important places, meaning that the international interlinkages are, perhaps unsurprisingly, complex and hard to observe,” that it could be the cause of the next financial crisis, and that they operate under in a largely unregulated environment, with regulations are a lot less onerous than those facing traditional banks. It is estimated that private market funds are involved in US$ 16 trillion of assets globally, with the private credit and private equity industries having surged in size, by 366% to an estimated US$ 11 trillion, over the past decade.
Many analysts opine that Sir Keir Starmer may have signed his own death warrant as he blocked the Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, from standing as the Labour candidate in the Gorton & Denton by-election. The embattled knight – and his eight cronies from Labour’s ruling NEC – made their decision after the PM opened the meeting by declaring that the mayor should not be allowed to stand in the upcoming by-election, for two main reasons. Politically, it could see a mayoral election result in a Reform victory and economically, it could cost Labour millions of pounds as it prepares to fight the May local elections. It is inevitable that this will only lead to more internal discord in the coming months from left wing members. The prime minister defied calls from senior figures on the left of his party, including Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell, to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester to run in the by-election for Gorton & Denton. The Scouser expressed his dismay at the decision commenting that “it tells you everything you need to know about the way the Labour Party is being run these days”, and that only he could have won the upcoming by-election. There are some leading Labour politicians resigned to the fact that the by-election has already been lost, as recent polls have pointed to a Reform victory.
December presented some depressing reading for the UK economy, as the number of job vacancies lost 4% to 716.8k in the year, as there were 15% fewer unfilled positions than at the end of 2024. Latest figures from Adzuna show that there were 2.3 jobseekers competing for every advertised role – the highest level since the 2021 lockdowns. The study confirms that the jobs market is weakening in almost every part of the country, with only NE England bucking the trend last month; the worst performing location was Scotland which posted 8.0% fewer vacancies compared to November.
January shop price inflationrose a surprising 0.8%, to 1.5%, on an annual basis attributable to the increased costs of meat, fish and fruit. Annualised food inflation was up 0.6% on the month to 3.9%, whilst non-food products including furniture, flooring and health and beauty increased to 0.3%, following a decline of 0.6% last month.
Keir Starmer is once again on his travels – this time it is a state visit to China, with the embattled PM hoping for a “more sophisticated” relationship with his host nation. Even before his arrival, Number 10 had announced a deal that will see China helping to slow down illegal Channel crossings; for the first time ever, the UK will share intelligence with Chinese authorities that will stop people smugglers obtaining small boat engines and equipment. (It seems that China manufactures 60% of all engines used by the gangs). He can come home knowing that he has managed to halve the tariff on Scotch whisky, lifted sanctions on six UK politicians and got free entry visas into China for UK citizens. He must have been aware that Trump levied 100% tariffs on Canada following their trade agreement with China. Based on his early returns, there is not a huge amount he can show for his efforts to thaw British-Sino relations. Jimmy Lae, the pro-democracy activist, still languishes in jail and the million or more Uighurs in the northwestern region of Xinjian are still facing persecution. However, this deal has been criticised, as any intelligence sharing with Beijing is perilous considering recent MI5 warnings about Chinese attempts to influence government officials. Since he wants to improve bilateral relations – and also to enhance trade and incoming investment – he is also courting danger. He may have to turn a blind eye to China’s human rights abuses and to finally approve the new Chinese embassy in London. For one, Donald Trump was left unimpressed with Starmer’s visit to China, saying efforts to deepen economic co-operation with Beijing were “very dangerous”. He will have to tread carefully with the US in future negotiations. Hopefully, he has not forgotten that he is dealing with a superpower and that the UK’s standing on the world stage continues to diminish. This visit serves to remind all that, despite all the hullabaloo, Keir Starmer, is A Little Man In A Big World!
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