Turning Japanese!                                                20 February 2026

One economic fact of life is that a bull run has a finite life cycle, and the Dubai housing sector is no exception. Prior to 2002, expatriates were not permitted to buy property in the emirate but since then, legislation has allowed non-UAE nationals to own real estate in designated freehold areas. The ensuing six years saw the sector on fire and the emirate’s first major housing collapse witnessed the bubble of oversupply, easy credit, excessive leveraging and speculation burst, exacerbated by the 2008/09 GFC. Property prices plunged across the board, leading to US$ 300 billion worth of cancelled or delayed projects, including a US$ 20.0 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi. The emirate’s first property boom had come to an almost sudden end and although Dubai was the catalyst, the main drivers originated in the US, including the fall of Lehman Brothers, excessive and very risky mortgage loans, increased borrowing by banks/investors, along with lax regulations for sub-prime lending and mortgage-backed securities.

This was followed by a correction starting in 2010, so that by 2015, the market had seen an 80% price improvement, bringing the average prices, at the end of that year, higher than they were at the time of the crash. The government introduced measures to restore business confidence and to stabilise the market, including progressive visa changes, lowering bank interest rates and providing financing to struggling developers. Furthermore, the emirate’s Expo 2020 bid, awarded in 2013, provided a welcome boost in property demand. Over the next five years – and into the Covid era – there was a marked slowdown/stabilisation period which saw prices some 25% lower than their 2015 peak. 2021 witnessed the start of the current boom with some areas posting price rises in treble percentage figures in the five-year period to December 2025.

When the GFC hit in 2008, it was true to say that not one country was prepared for the dire consequences that followed, with global banks, including the UAE, being badly impacted. Now with at least a market correction on the horizon that will see price increases weaken, but still in positive territory, banks have to exercise more caution. If there is an ongoing major conflict, then it is highly likely that price rises will fall into negative territory; that could be in the region of 10% to 15% – but not on the scale post GFC when prices registered more than 60%. UAE banks will be exposed to the real estate sector through corporate lending and mortgages, but they are much better prepared this time around to manage crises, after a five-year plus bull run. In the event of a downturn, local banks have more robust liquidity levels and stronger capital buffers in a more regulated environment than was the case in 2008. One step taken by the Central Bank has been capping exposure to construction and real estate at 30% of credit risk-weighted assets, (in 2022); latest data shows that this figure currently stands at 18.3%.  Real estate and construction accounts for 12% of banks’ loans – down from 19% in December 2021 lending fell by 6 per cent in 2022, 4% in 2023 and 8% in 2024, before rising 4% year on year as of September 2025 – largely due to declining interest rates. The sector now accounts for 12% of total loans, down from 19% in December 2021. In the three years from 2022, lending had declined 6%, 4% and 8% before rising 4% on the year to September 2025 – largely due to declining interest rates. Other economic factors that have helped banks include Dubai’s strong and diversified economy, a period of high interest rates, early repayment from the companies and the fact that most real estate sales are cash-based, rather than by the use of mortgages. However, because of the marked increase in real estate activity, mortgage lending has more than doubled in value and, at a time when rates are dipping, affordability will see more Dubai residents buying, rather than renting.

Danube Properties has announced the launch of Serenz by Danube, located in the heart of Jumeirah Village Circle. The fifty plus twenty-five storey premium residential development spans over 120k sq ft – offering more than forty premium amenities catering to residents of all ages. They include the likes of a resort-style serenity pool, a dedicated aqua park for children, landscaped gardens, spa facilities, fitness areas, sports courts, kids’ daycare, meditation zones, and vibrant social spaces. Serenz by Danube offers fully furnished premium residences, with prices starting from US$ 232k, with its signature 1.0% per month payment plan.

Crystal has officially unveiled its flagship residential address, ‘The Hudson, Opal by Crystal’, located within Jumeirah Village Circle. The project comprises ninety-six residences – thirty-four studios, twenty-two one-bedroom residences, (with 1.5 baths), twenty-one-bedroom residences, (with two baths), nineteen premium one-bedroom residences, (with two baths plus study), and a single signature three-bedroom master residence, (with three baths and study). Amenities at The Hudson include a fully equipped fitness centre, twenty-eight mt resort-style swimming pool with sun deck, steam room, multipurpose basketball and pickleball courts, and landscaped outdoor lounge areas with barbecue zones. Supporting infrastructure includes multi-level parking, EV charging provisions, three high-speed elevators, chiller-free cooling efficiency and smart-home compatibility.

Last April, Damac Properties signed a global partnership with Chelsea Football Club which saw the developer become the club’s front-of-jersey sponsor. The Dubai-based company also became the club’s official property development partner and is currently developing ‘Chelsea Residences by DAMAC’, located in Dubai Maritime City; this is the world’s first football-branded residential project. Last Friday, Damac announced a long-term global partnership with Oracle Red Bull Racing, one of the most successful and iconic teams in F1 history. Its branding will appear on the Oracle Red Bull Racing RB22 car’s halo and side pods, as well as the team principal and driver team kit, helmets and race suits. Previously, the developer has partnered with Roberto Cavalli and Paramount.

More property developers have signed up for Dubai’s First-Time Home Buyer (FTHB) Programme, which offers first-time property buyers priority access, 2.0% discounts, flexible payment plans, and waived administration fees. The scheme – a joint initiative between the Dubai Land Department and the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism – has been a huge success since its mid-2025 start and to date it has enabled over 2k residents to purchase their first homes, generating almost US$ 1 billion in total residential sales; 41k have already registered, of which almost 50% of the total have been residents of the emirate for more than five years. Samana Developers and Qube Developments are the latest to jump on the bandwagon and join the likes of Azizi, Beyond Development, Binghatti, Damac, Danube, Ellington, Emaar, Majid Al Futtaim, Nakheel, Wasl, Arada, Irth, 4Direction and Reportage who have already joined the programme.

Alpen Capital’s latest GCC Real Estate Industry Report, estimates that the country will see 390k new residences coming onto the market by 2030, bringing the country’s total portfolio to 1.51 million residences. It noted that in Dubai new additions focused on apartment-led mixed-use developments.  For some years, this blog has criticised those agencies that start the year with a Dubai prediction of the number of new residential units to be handed over that year, only to find that their initial number was invariably on the high side; the study says this was due to delays in construction. Dubai has led the way, establishing itself as a global metropolis fuelled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies. It did add that in Dubai, buyers are increasingly drawn to off-plan communities with flexible payment plans and premium lifestyle amenities, and that “the UAE’s Golden Visa programme and expanded freehold zones are drawing long-term expatriate investment”. It estimates that benefiting from strong international investment and an active off-plan market, its housing stock expanded from 556k units in 2019 to 752k units in 2024 – a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%. It commented that “this growth has been supported by master-planned communities, high-rise developments, and major infrastructure upgrades designed for a diverse resident base, particularly expatriates”. This blog agrees with their assertion that over the coming years, supply–demand dynamics will become more balanced, and that “development trends are shifting towards master-planned, sustainable, and technology-enabled communities focused on long-term liveability”.

With its latest funding round, the real estate platform, Stake, (locally established in 2021), raised some US$ 31 million, as part of its Series B funding round; total funding to date has reached US$ 58 million. The funding, which was oversubscribed, saw some of the big guns participating, which included Emirates NBD, Mubadala Investment Company, and Property Finder. It claims to have two million users and has enabled 250k investments across five hundred-plus properties and four private real estate funds, paying out over US$ 15 million in rental income and surpassing US$ 375 million in real estate transactions to date.. Much of the funding raised will see Stake advancing more into Saudi Arabia and enhancing its local capabilities.

Dubai Holding has partnered with Nord Anglia Education to expand premium international education in Dubai, by developing purpose-built school facilities, with Nord Anglia Education operating them. The first campus, which will offer a British curriculum, will be located in Dubai Production City. Additional K-12 schools are envisioned across other Dubai Holding master-planned communities in the coming years. The UK educator already has two successful campuses in Dubai – Nord Anglia International School and Swiss International Scientific School. On the international stage, it has eighty-nine day and boarding schools in thirty-seven countries.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman of DMCC, opened ‘The Plaza’, saying that it marked a defining milestone in the evolution of Uptown Dubai, transforming the district into a destination that brings people together through business, culture, and shared experiences”. Spanning 21k sq mt at the centre of the district, it is designed to host corporate events, conferences, concerts and large-scale public gatherings, with capacity for up to 4k people at a time. The Plaza will position Uptown Dubai as a premier venue for major international events, as well as everyday community moments. Currently two towers – twenty-three storey and seventeen storey – are being built, and when finished will add a further sixty-two sq mt of Grade A office. Once fully completed, the district will boast a total gross floor area of 538k sq mt, including 232k sq mt dedicated to Grade A commercial offices.

The emirate’s healthcare sector posted robust growth last year. Official data sees there are now 5.8k facilities, (8.6% growth in 2025), including fifty-five hospitals, sixty-eight specialised clinics, sixty day-surgery centres, seventy general dental clinics, one hundred and twenty-six general medical clinics, two hundred and twenty-two home healthcare centres, and one hundred and one alternative medicine centres. Over the year, the number of medical professionals in the sector increased by 8.3% to 69.4k.

In his capacity as the Ruler of Dubai, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, has ordered the release of 1.86k prisoners of different nationalities from Dubai’s correctional and punitive establishments, on the occasion of the Holy Month of Ramadan.

Fraudsters and beggars have been warned by the Cyber Crimes Department, within the General Department of Criminal Investigation at Dubai Police, not to take advantage of the compassion and kindness often seen during the Holy Month of Ramadan to make illegal profits through electronic begging on the internet and social media platforms. It also advised that any donations or Zakat payments should utilise only officially approved and licenced organisations. According to Article 51, of the Federal Decree-Law No. 34 of 2021, anyone found guilty of begging, through the use of information technology, whether by solicitation or any other form or means, may face imprisonment for up to three months, a fine of no less than US$ 272k, or both penalties.

In a bid to further develop trade links with Zambia, UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade Minister, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, with a high-level UAE business delegation, met the country’s President Hakainde Hichilema. The Minister and his team also held discussions with government ministers and senior officials. The meetings were designed to identify avenues to broaden trade cooperation and new investment activity across priority sectors, with the aim to further enhance commercial ties through trade facilitation, supply-chain resilience and private-sector participation. Furthermore, both parties discussed finalising a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to expand bilateral market access for goods and services, promote economic cooperation and facilitate investment. In 2025, non-oil trade was 64.5% higher, on the year, at US$ 3.4 billion. The Minister added that “Zambia represents a significant economic partner for the UAE” and was part of the UAE’s ongoing efforts to diversify global trade partnerships and strengthen engagement with high-growth markets.

Dubai’s largest bank, Emirates NBD has approved a draft plan to merge its Indian branches with RBL Bank. If the deal were to go through, it would be the bank’s largest international acquisition, subject to it having a majority stake. The India-related resolution, at the recent AGM, authorises the merger of Emirates NBD’s branches in India with RBL Bank if the group completes the acquisition of a controlling stake, in line with Indian banking laws and regulatory requirements. An announcement last year indicated that the bank had plans to acquire a 60% stake in RBL for about US$ 3.0 billion and a successful outcome would place Emirates NBD as a leading player in what would be one of the world’s fastest-growing major banking markets. However, this acquisition will eventually have to face India’s strict regulatory – and sometimes dilatory – banking watchdogs.

Earlier in the week, it was announced that the UAE President, HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, had issued a Federal Decree appointing Abdulaziz Mohammed Faraj Al Mulla as Director General of the Federal Tax Authority, with the rank of Ministry Undersecretary. The new incumbent, with over twenty years government experience, has served as the MD and CEO of the Dubai Investment Fund, and as Executive Director of the Dubai Financial Support Fund. He is a graduate of the Mohammed bin Rashid Programme for Leadership Development and holds an Executive MBA from Georgetown University, He also oversaw the coordination of tax affairs within the Government of Dubai, and is recognised for his expertise in taxation, business development, public policy and strategic financial planning.

A part of Dubai’s traffic problems can be laid at the door of its commercial transport sector which recorded more than 40% growth in the number of licensed companies, in 2025, to 16.92k. During the year, total registered vehicles surpassed 500k, with the sector contributing more than US$ 2.3 billion annually to the emirate’s economy. RTA’s Chairman, Mattar Al Tayer, commented that “these results reaffirm the emirate’s established position as a leading global hub for transport and logistics. This robust growth has been driven by several strategic factors, most notably accelerated digital transformation, the wider deployment of smart solutions, rising demand for app-based delivery services, and the continued expansion of logistics operations, vehicle rental services and related commercial transport activities”.

Interesting statistics show that, in 2025, the UAE-listed insurance firms’ net profit jumped a mega 47.0%, to US$ 1.0 billion, driven by technical margins supported by risk-based pricing, portfolio rationalisation, and regulatory oversight from the Central Bank. Of that total, the top five companies accounted for nearly 73% of the total profits, (US$ 731 million), recorded by the insurers in the UAE – 29.0% higher on the year; other players accounted for the 27% balance, with their profits up by a mega 135%. Orient Insurance remained the most profitable company of 2025 with a US$ 322 million profit, followed by Daman, Adnic, Sukoon and Dubai Insurance Company. Whilst many will probably begrudge such profit margins, it must be remembered that the industry took a massive hit following the April 2024 storms – and lost some US$ 2.5 billion in the process.

With continuing global demand for Sharia-compliant debt instruments, during 2025, Nasdaq Dubai posted that for the first time, the bourse had reached a total of US$ 100 billion of outstanding Sukuk listings; by 31 December, Nasdaq Dubai’s combined value of debt securities, listed across the Dubai Financial Market and Nasdaq Dubai, reached US$ 150.9 billion, with Nasdaq Dubai accounting for US$ 146.1 billion of the total. Over the year, it posted US$ 30.6 billion in new debt listings across sixty issuances including Ajman Bank, OMNIYAT, Mashreq, China Development Bank and the New Development Bank. Since its 2005 inception, the exchange has hosted more than US$ 245 billion in cumulative bond and Sukuk issuances, including US$ 177 billion in Sukuk alone.

After more than a decade with Union Properties’ shareholders never receiving a dividend, they will now receive US$ 0.008, (AED 3 fils), a share this year; this comes after the once embattled developer implemented significant initiatives to expedite its business transformation goals. UP’s  2025 audited results posted increases across the board including revenue, operating profit and cash reserves – up 39.4% to US$ 201 million, operating profit climbing 48.8% to US$ 66 million, while cash reserves reached a high of US$ 135 million. There is no doubt that the company was badly impacted by a combination of allegations of fraud, mismanagement, and massive debt, post Covid. At the time, it was forced to dismiss the Board, scale back operations, restructure its assets, and focus on stabilising its finances over the past decade. Its CEO, Amer Khansaheb, noted that “our strongest financial performance in years, supported by record cash balances, enhanced profitability, full repayment of legacy debt, and the proposed reinstatement of dividend payments, reflects the strength of our transformation”. Last year, UP enhanced its development pipeline, with the US$ 535 million launch of Mirdad, in Motor City, comprising four towers, with 1.09k apartments, and a range of lifestyle amenities.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 16 February on 6,730 points, and having gained thirty-nine points (0.6%), the previous week, shed one hundred and thirty-nine points (2.1%), to close the week on 6,591 points, by 20 February 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 higher the previous four weeks, was up US$ 0.15 to close on US$ 4.50 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.84 US$ 9.74, US$ 2.48 and US$ 0.46, and closed on 20 February at US$ 0.84, US$ 9.74, US$ 2.48 and US$ 0.46. On 20 February, trading was at one hundred and sixty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and one million dollars, compared to four hundred and seventy-three million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and sixty-two million dollars on 20 February.

By 20 February 2026, Brent, US$ 2.74 (3.1%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 3.16, (4.6%), to close on US$ 71.66. Gold, US$ 165 (3.4%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 64 (1.3%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 5,109 on 20 February. Silver was trading at US$ 76.99 – US$ 0.65 (0.8%) higher on the week.

It seems that the US has managed to place all its attacking assets in a position that it is as good as ready to strike Iran. For the past few weeks, President Trump has been hinting at possible military action against the country, despite the recent resumed indirect bilateral talks mediated by Oman. According to the US Energy Information Administration, around twenty million barrels of oil, (almost 20%of global supply), pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. As the possibility of military action increases by the day, insurance premiums linked to shipments, passing through the Strait of Hormuz, are back in play again, with the current geopolitical ‘insurance premium’ appearing to be in the US$ 5 – US$ 7 range. The other factor to consider is that all this warmongering is pushing energy prices higher, as the market considers the supply-disruption risks of a major disruption in the Gulf.

The world’s largest copper producer posted impressive H1 revenue, 10.8% higher, on the year, at US$ 27.9 billion and profit, up 27.7% to US$ 5.64 billion. Australia’s BHP noted that its results were boosted by demand for copper – to meet the world’s need for electrical power – and that it had raised output by some 30% over the previous four years. The red metal is now the biggest contributor to overall earnings at BHP which commented that “with four compelling growth options across Chile, Argentina, Arizona and South Australia, we are well positioned to capture the forecast higher long term copper prices”. The miner also reported record H1 shipments of iron ore from Western Australia. It expects that the global economy will be 3.0% stronger this year, as “China’s economy is resilient after meeting its around 5.0% target last year. India continues to outperform’, and that “we are optimistic that the economic backdrop is supportive for our key commodities”.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto has posted flat underlying earnings of US$ 10.87 billion for 2025. The group’s iron ore division saw EBITDA decline 10.6% to US$ 15.2 billion, attributable to lower prices, whilst its copper division registered a 118% surge in its EBITDA to US$ 7.4 billion, boosted by higher production and better prices.

In the UK, Beauty Bay, an online retailer of cosmetics brands since 1999, has reportedly filed a notice of intention to appoint insolvency practitioners, in a bid to buy the company time from creditors’ claims as it continues its search for new owners. The company is on the brink of administration amid a hunt for new investors. The company sells more than two hundred brands on its platform, including Ariana Grande, Estee Lauder and Glow Hub, as well as having its own-brand product range. The company added that “cost inflation and fragile consumer confidence have had a heavy impact on consumer spending”.

The Financial Conduct Authority has fined Richard Howson, the former chief executive of Carillion, GBP 237.7k for his role in misleading statements by the ​company before its collapse eight years ago. The watchdog noted that his handling of the construction firm’s communications with the market, ahead of its demise in 2018, as “reckless”. At the time, the company, involved in building and maintaining hospitals and roads, closed owing close to US$ 9.46 billion, with its collapse leaving thousands losing their jobs, with dozens of major contracts unfinished. Two former finance chiefs were also fined – Richard Adam and Zafar Khan were handed penalties of US$ 315k and US$ 188k.

It is reported that Scotland’s Brewdog has appointed experts to see whether any entity is interested in a sale that would result in a break-up of one of Scotland’s best-known businesses. Alix Partners has been sounding out potential bidders, with a tight timeline, along with an indicative offer. The brewer, founded in 2007 and behind brands, including Punk IPA and Elvis Juice, has roughly 220k shareholders, many of whom became investors through its ‘Equity for Punks’ scheme, when the company raised US$ 102 million. Those that sold out, when its market cap hit US$ 2.72 billion, made a tidy return; those who remained shareholders will be left with little of their original US$ 545 outlay. It is believed that BrewDog co-founder James Watt is planning to buy back the company. It employs some 1.4k staff and trades from seventy-two bars globally, including in London and Las Vegas and produces five of the top eight UK craft beer brands, including Hazy Jane, Wingman and Lost; it claims to have a 4% share of the UK off-trade grocery market by value. It has four breweries – at Ellon in Scotland, as well as sites in the US, Australia and Germany. In its last financial year, it posted a US$ 50 million loss. The company added that BrewDog “remains a global pioneer in craft beer: a world-class consumer brand, the No.1 independent brewer in the UK and with a highly engaged global community. We believe that this combination will attract substantial interest, though no final decisions have been made. Our breweries, bars, and venues continue to operate as normal”.

There are fifty-four recognised nations in Africa, and this week China has announced that, from 01 May, it will implement zero-tariff treatment for imports from fifty-three African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. Reports indicate that China is keen to establish joint ⁠economic ​partnership ⁠pacts on the continent, and further expand market access for those countries’ exports, via upgraded mechanisms such ​as its “green ​channel”.

Japan posted a 0.2% annualised real rate growth, adjusted for inflation, in the December quarter – 0.1% higher than the Q3 return. The 2025 annual return showed nominal GDP 4.5% higher, on the year, at US$ 4.33 trillion, which in real terms translate to US$ 3.86 trillion, 1.1% higher on the year. In the final quarter, private consumption, accounted for over 50% of the economy – growing 0.1% for the seventh consecutive quarterly rise.

Despite the fact that weakening oil global demand, allied with a strengthening local currency, should see import prices cheaper, the Republic of Korea has witnessed the seventh consecutive month prices going in the other direction – upwards. The January import price index rose 0.4%, on the month, slowing from a 0.9% increase in December. However, on an annual basis, the index shed 1.2%. The main drivers behind the rise in import prices are gains in primary metal products, (at 0.9% on the month), led by copper ore and LNG as well as mining products pushing up the overall index. Meanwhile, the export price index also rose for the seventh consecutive month in January, surging 4.0% on the month

The corporate tracker, CEO Score, posted that employment at the Republic of Korea’s four hundred and seventy-six largest companies edged down 0.41% compared to 2024, to 1.626 million workers; twenty-four companies of the country’s top five hundred companies by sales failed to comply. Gains at K-beauty and semiconductor firms failed to offset job cuts noted in other industries. 46.6%, (two hundred and twenty-two entities), of respondents posted increases in employment numbers – but more than 70% of that total added fewer than one hundred new staff. CJ Olive Young, the retail and distribution arm of CJ Group, recorded the largest increase, hiring 2.52k employees, 21% higher on the year, with chipmaker SK Hynix Inc recruiting an extra 6.9% workers (2.19k). On the flip side, two hundred and forty-nine companies, (equating to 52.3%), posted a decline in employment, while five companies saw no change. There were 1k or more 2025 job losses noted for LG Electronics Inc., Emart Inc., Lotte Shopping Co. and Hyundai Motor Co.

Italy’s current account surplus came in at US$ 32.224 billion in 2025, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP, up from US$ 28.80 billion in 2024. The improvement was mainly attributed to the primary income surplus of US$ 4.00 billion, which swung from a deficit of US$ 8.94 billion the previous year. In December, Italy’s current account surplus rose 24.0% to US$ 3.65 billion, with the goods surplus increasing 13.2% to US$ 7.05 billion. At the same time, the deficit in services trade widened 54.0% to US$ 2.35 billion, as the primary income balance almost doubled to show a surplus of US$ 1.76 billion. The shortfall on secondary income rose 13.6% to US$ 2.94 billion, with the capital account surplus increasing 228% to US$ 375 million in December.

Driven by higher food and fuel prices, German inflation rose to 2.1% at the start of 2026 – the same level as in January 2025, but 0.3% higher on the month.   There was a 2.1% hike, on the year, in food prices, which had risen by 0.8% in December; hefty price increases were seen in chocolate, fruit and meat by 21.0%, 6.1% and 4.9% respectively. These were somewhat offset by reductions in butter, (33.0%) and edible fats/oils, (20.1%). Services which have recently been posting above average monthly increases, registered a January 3.2% price rise, following 3.5% price hikes in the previous three months. January energy prices slowed 1.7% on the year – with electricity and gas declining by 3.2% and 2.5%.

The Department of Labor posted that January US consumer price index consumer price index dipped 0.3% on the month to 2.4% – the slowest pace since May. This could be seen to favour Donald Trump’s assertion that the central bank was in a position to cut interest rates without stoking a new flare-up in prices. However, there are two caveats whether the US economy will see the Fed’s 2.0% target can be achieved – continued labour shortages could push up prices and/or companies start to pass on the costs of tariffs more fully to consumers. The US economy looks to be in better shape than most other global nations, and probably has more room to manoeuvre. Little surprise to see the President posting that the US economy was “unbelievable”, adding that “we right now have the hottest country anywhere in the world”. For what it is worth, the US will be cutting rates sometime in H1.

The average UK wage growth last year was in the region of 4.0% – still well above longer term averages; when adjusted for inflation, real-term pay growth was estimated at roughly 0.9% – 1.1%. There is no doubt that 2025 saw the UK economy struggling and many of the population have had to take cost-cutting measures to survive during this torrid period. However, such action will not be needed when it comes to some senior managers in the banking industry which have recently released their 2025 audited reports that show high earnings, especially for their respective supremos. Figures speak for themselves:

	US$	Chief Executive	Annual Pay	%age	Pre-Tax Profit	%age	Bonus Pool	%age
Barclays		Venkat	20.5 million	29%	9.1 billion	13%	2.2 billion	15%
Lloyds		Charlie Nunn	10.1 million	32%	9.1 billion	12%	552 million	10%
NatWest		Paul Thwaite	9.0 million	24%	10.5 billion	24%	675 million	11%

Some good news for the Chancellor with the Office for National Statistics posting that the January headline rate of inflation dipped 0.4%, on the month to 3.0% – its lowest level in almost a year. The main drivers behind this welcome decline were falls in petrol prices, food and airfares.  There were marginal falls posted for core inflation, (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices), and services inflation – both down 0.1% to 3.1% and 4.4% respectively. Notwithstanding the Covid era, UK’s 2025 jobless rate edged up, 0.1% on the September quarter, to its highest level – to 5.2% in the December quarter – in over a decade, with wage growth slowing further, adding to the inevitability of a UK interest ​rate cut next month.  

The Australian dollar attained a forty-year high against the yen that will probably see record numbers of Australians, visiting Japan in 2026, after a record one million plus were there in 2025. With the Aussie dollar/yen in equilibrium, it has become much cheaper as the Aussie dollar has recently strengthened and last week was trading at nearly 111 yen. It is obvious that, from an affordability viewpoint, Japan has never been cheaper.

Ironically, the country may be facing an over-tourism problem. In 2024, nearly thirty-seven million visited the country, as that number increased by over 15.0% to 42.7 million, with a major driver behind this massive increase being the low value of the yen. One casualty is the cherry blossom festival in Fujiyoshida because “the quiet lives of local residents are threatened”, as some 200k would have visited the annual event. With the dollar’s value expected to remain high against the yen, more Australians will be tempted to holiday there, (as will tourists from other countries). Australians are the main reason for Bali becoming overcrowded and they may become another minor factor, (but not on such a grand scale), on the same happening in Japan. Turning Japanese!