Beware The Ides Of March!                                      06 March 2026

Wasl, the government developer, has become known for its social responsibility, with its designs around connectivity, community infrastructure, greenery, and access to premium amenities, and its belief that quality living should be accessible across all income levels. This can be seen from its master plan communities like Wasl Village in Al Qusais, with 6.20k residential units, (ranging from studios to one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments), and Wasl Green Park’s 2.53k one-, two-, and three-bedroom homes set within landscaped surroundings. Both developments are indicators on how affordability and high-quality urban living can seamlessly coexist.

Last May, a landmark governmental partnership between Wasl and the RTA/Dubai Municipality resulted in plans to double its affordable leasehold residential portfolio across Dubai, with a coordinated strategy to address housing demand at scale. Wasl aims to double its affordable leasehold residential portfolio over the next five years. The initial projects will cover a total planned area of 1.46 million sq mt, with delivery phased over multiple stages to ensure infrastructure readiness and long-term community viability. This initiative directly supports the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, which calls for a balanced housing ecosystem encompassing luxury, mid-income, and affordable segments, while upgrading urban areas into vibrant, inclusive communities.

Earlier in the week, Dubai Multi Commodities Centre unveiled further details of its Uptown District expansion, including plans for Phase 3 of the district’s master plan. Phase 1 delivered the three hundred and forty mt Uptown Tower and central plaza, with phase 2 – two Grade A office towers and two residential towers – under construction with completion slated for Q1 2028. Phase 3 will comprise a six hundred mt plus, consisting high end residential units, Grade A offices (accounting for some 50% of total space), and a luxury hotel operated by an international hospitality brand. The tower will feature direct integration with the Dubai Metro, through a climate-controlled link bridge, with road upgrades, including flyover access to Sheikh Zayed Road.

Despite the ongoing regional tensions, all Emaar communities, malls, hospitality assets and development projects continue to operate normally. Its founder, Mohamed Alabbar, commented that “the city continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by effective leadership, sound regulation, and a dynamic business environment. Our focus remains on disciplined execution, operational excellence, and delivering sustainable value for our shareholders and customers”.

At Tuesday’s media briefing, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, confirmed that the UAE’s strategic stockpile of essential commodities is sufficient to meet market needs for up to the next six months. The continued availability of basic goods and price is some relief for the population, currently under emergency conditions. The Minister noted that the robust and sustainable legislative framework has been introduced to protect food security in the country.

At the same debriefing meeting, Minister Al Marri confirmed that the UAE had opened safe air corridors with GCC countries, enabling it to operate up to forty-eight flights per hour as part of a gradual restoration of air traffic following recent regional developments. He also confirmed that the General Civil Aviation Authority has commenced exceptional flight operations at the country’s airports to facilitate the departure of stranded passengers, affected by flight disruptions. In the first two days of the month, about 18k passengers had been transported. He added that the aviation sector was operating under a clear institutional framework focused on preparedness, coordination, and safety, with airspace and human safety as top priorities. Whilst noting that the country’s ecosystem includes more than 100k hotel rooms and over 40k tourism-related establishments across the country, the Minister commented that it was working closely with hotels and tourism companies to ensure the safety, security and comfort of visitors, while maintaining the highest standards of service.

Hotel establishments in Dubai have received an email from the Department of Economy and Tourism instructing them to extend all necessary support to tourists impacted by the flight cancellations or delays. It emailed all hotels requesting “we kindly request your cooperation in ensuring that hotel guests, who were due to check out but are unable to do so as a result of these circumstances, are offered the option to extend their stay under the same conditions as their initial booking. It is important that no guests are evicted under these circumstances”. The DET also instructed all Dubai hotels to extend the highest level of support for travellers. The announcement follows the cancellation of over 1.5k flights in the region and the closure of Dubai airports. Earlier, the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority had also announced that the UAE will cover all accommodation and sustenance costs for affected and stranded passengers, but it seems to apply only in Abu Dhabi. However, UAE travellers, facing unexpected flight delays, can now get temporary support in Dubai. Palazzo Versace Dubai has announced it is offering a complimentary stay, including breakfast, to stranded travellers. This is subject to availability and confirmation of travel status. The move comes as flight disruptions continue.

During the week, S&P Global released its adjusted February’s UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index, with business activity and new orders driving the strongest expansion in a year; the PMI nudged 0.1% higher on the month to 55.0 – its highest level in eleven months. The figures are indicative of the resilience of the UAE market and the positive impact of its diversified economic model, where sectors such as construction, real estate, logistics, tourism and technology are emerging as key engines of growth. The business expansion was attributable to several factors such as strong domestic demand, successful contract wins and aggressive marketing strategies by companies. There was a marked jump in new orders, with companies reporting a steep rise in fresh business, as rising tourism inflows, expanding e-commerce platforms and growing demand for AI-related products and services.

The Dubai PMI dipped 1.3 to 54.6 in February, on the month, indicating a softer but still robust expansion in the emirate’s non-oil private sector; (any reading above fifty demonstrates growth). Positive factors included employment growing at its fastest rate in two years, improved supply chains, easing inflationary pressures and continued growth in output and new orders, supported by rising population inflows, marketing initiatives, tourism growth and increased adoption of advanced technologies such as AI. The S&P Global survey showed companies continuing to express strong confidence in future activity. All this good news data was harnessed before the onset of the crisis, in its seventh day, and now needs to be read from a completely different perspective. Unfortunately, these forecasts were rather out of date even before their publication.

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, the UAE retains third spot, among emerging markets, in logistics, with 2025 bilateral trade jumping 13.33%, to US$ 39.02 billion. The main drivers were the deepening economic ties between the two countries and growing demand for goods across key sectors. Although exports to the US only nudged some 2.0% higher, to US$ 7.61 billion, imports surged 16.2% to US$ 31.41 billion. The US trade surplus with the UAE widened by US$ 4.19 billion, (21.4%), to US$ 23.80 billion.  

Last Sunday, a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was signed with Ecuador at a ceremony in Quito, in the presence of Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed and President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa. A cooperation agreement, between the UAE Ministry of Investment and Ecuador’s Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments, and Fisheries, was signed to further explore investment opportunities across priority sectors of mutual interest; a total investment value exceeding US$ 3 billion is currently under discussion between the two countries. Current bilateral non-oil trade was estimated at US$ 374 million last year.

Jebel Ali Port, the largest port in the Middle East, has four terminals handling over fifteen million TEUs, (twenty-foot container units), a year of container cargo, along with significant volumes of bulk, breakbulk and Ro-Ro cargo.  Earlier in the week, Dubai’s DP World had announced that all terminals at Jebel Ali port were operating normally, confirming that it is continuously monitoring developments in close coordination with relevant authorities.

Yesterday, 05 March 2026, the sixth day of the crisis, the UAE intercepted six ballistic missiles, and one hundred and twenty-five drones. Since the beginning of the Iranian attacks, ninety-four UAE residents have been injured. Over the first seven days of the crisis,, two hundred and five ballistic missiles have been detected, with one hundred and ninety ballistic missiles destroyed, while thirteen falling into the sea, and two within the country’s territory. Additionally, one thousand, one hundred and eighty-four Iranian drones were detected, of which one thousand, one hundred and ten of them were intercepted, while seventy-four drones fell within the country’s territory. Eight cruise missiles were also detected and destroyed.

The UAE Fuel Price Committee reviews and adjusts retail petrol and diesel prices at the end of each month to reflect changes in global fuel markets. March retail prices came into force last Sunday, 01 March 2026.

		March	February	Increase	01 Jan
	US$
	Super 98	0.706	0.667	5.85%	0.689
	Special 95	0.676	0.659	2.58%	0.659
	EPlus	0.654	0.638	2.51%	0.638
	Diesel	0.741	0.695	6.62%	0.695

Ecuador has become the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA, following Columbia (April 2024), Costa Rica, (April 2025) and Chile, (November 2025). As with other CEPAs, their aims are to reduce tariffs and remove barriers to bilateral trade by strengthening cooperation and building strategic partnerships between the public and private sectors. It also forms part of the UAE’s ongoing efforts to expand its trade partnership network in the region. This particular agreement focuses on priority areas including clean energy, advanced technology, mining, logistics, and agriculture, among other sectors of mutual interest.

This week, Salik Company posted its 2025 results, with all indicators heading north, as revenue, net profit and EBITDA surged by 35.1% to US$ 842 million, by 33.4% to US$ 422 million and by 35.8% to US$ 583 million, on the back of higher toll usage, cost efficiency and fine revenues. Revenue streams included from fines at US$ 76 million, (down 0.8% to 9.1% of total revenue), tag activation fees, at US$ 13 million, (up 14.8%) – and contributing US$ 13 million to the total revenue – and US$ 7 million total ancillary revenue, driven by revenues from Parking Payment Solutions partnerships with Emaar Malls and Parkonic, a significant increase of more than 300%. The Board of Directors proposed a total dividend of US$ 243 million to be paid during H1 2026 – equating to US$ 0.032 per share; the total dividend, 33.4% higher on the year, comprised a cash dividend of US$ 214 million, and a proposed special dividend of US$ 29 million. There were 852.7 million total trips, through Salik’s tolls, last year, 639.1 million of which were chargeable, with revenue enhanced by two new gates and variable pricing. Peak trips US$ 0.016 per hour reached 212.2 million, while off-peak US$ 0.011 saw more trips at 365.8 million. 2.8 million vehicles, (up 7.7% on the year), are registered to go through Dubai’s Salik gates.

Q4 EBITDA, with a 3.1% decline in margin, increased by 20.7% to top US$ 153 million, with Salik’s net profit before tax and after tax rising 19.6% to US$ 123 million and by 19.6% to US$ 112 million; the main drivers were continued growth in chargeable trips and revenue momentum in Q4 2025.

Citing precautionary measures during a period of rapidly evolving developments across the region, regulators confirmed a two-day closure of Nasdaq Dubai, effective Monday, 02 March and Tuesday, 03 March. Furthermore, the Capital Market Authority separately announced that stock markets across the country will also remain closed on the same dates, including the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Market stakeholders have been urged to follow official communication channels for updates as conditions evolve. All bourses reopened for business on Wednesday, 04 March 2026.

The DFM opened the shortened week on Wednesday 04 March on 6,503 points, and having shed two hundred and twenty-two points (3.4%), the previous fortnight, lost a further five hundred and eighty-four points (10.0%), to close the week on 5,917 points, by 06 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.07 points lower the previous week, lost US$ 0.61 to close on US$ 3.80 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.82, US$ 8.99, US$ 2.26 and US$ 0.44, and closed on 06 March at US$ 0.78, US$ 8.01, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.38. On 06 March, trading was at three hundred and thirty-four million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and sixty-three million compared to, three hundred and eighty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and seventy million on 27 February.

By 06 March 2026, Brent, US$ 3.80 (5.5%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 20.39, (28.2%), to close on US$ 92.69. Gold, US$ 234 (4.7%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 19 (0.4%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 5,159 on 06 March. Silver was trading at US$ 84.33 – US$ 5.46 (6.1%) lower on the week.

Iraqi authorities posted that oil production from its Rumaila oil field had been reduced by 700k bpd as from 01 March and that it had also shut down production of 460k bpd from West Qurna. By 03 March, Brent crude was trading higher at US$ 83.56. Officials also noted that production will be cut by a further three million bpd if oil tankers cannot move freely and reach loading ports. 

Later in the week, and after suspending production at all its key facilities, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its liquefied natural gas, (and associated products), shipments. All its affected buyers have been duly informed that contractual deliveries could not be guaranteed. Force majeure allows suppliers to suspend contractual obligations when events, beyond their control, prevent normal operations. As Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter, it will be no surprise to note that this will result in a significant impact for global gas supply; this has the potential of lifting domestic energy prices in the UK and many other countries.

The longer this goes on will dictate the wider issue of the impact on global energy prices – and ultimately on the global trade and economic environment. On top of this, about 20% of the world’s energy requirements pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. (The US energy information administration reported that, in 2024, oil flow through the Strait averaged twenty million bpd). Any prolonged disruption to Gulf oil supplies would affect energy flows to both Europe and Asia – and latest data, from MarineTraffic indicates that traffic through Strait of Hormuz, probably the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, has fallen by 90%. The knock-on impact will not only see inflation surging again but will inevitably hurt many countries’ external balances, currencies and capital flows. Most experts seem to favour Bent oil prices surging above US$ 100, with yesterday’s crude futures, at US$ 83.36 a barrel, after touching their highest since July 2024 at US$ 85.12. It is estimated that a mere 10.0% rise in oil prices can deteriorate current account balances (for emerging markets) by forty-sixty bp. Even bigger increases would only exacerbate the problem – more marked in emerging markets including the likes of Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Say a 20% oil price hike would probably see growth figures slashed by 0.5% and inflation moving 0.7% higher while drastically widening current account deficits across almost every economy. India, with much limited oil inventory, would be more than spooked by higher oil prices. A climbing US$ would not be well received by low-reserve countries such as Argentina, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey which would face heightened risks of capital outflows and currency slides.

With Netflix eventually walking away from discussions, after not matching Paramount’s US$ 31.0 per share offer, the battle has finally seen a deal, valued at a mega US$ 110 billion, to buy Warner Bros Discovery go through. Consequently, the agreement sees Paramount Skydance become the owner of the news channels, CNN and CBS News, and the combination of two of Hollywood’s five legacy studios, potentially reshaping the US film industry. David Ellison, chair and CEO of Paramount, noted that “from the very beginning, our pursuit of Warner Bros Discovery has been guided by a clear purpose: to honour the legacy of two iconic companies while accelerating our vision of building a next-generation media and entertainment company”. However, the deal still has to go through due process, with regulators in California preparing a vigorous review of the deal and possible opposition from both Democrat and Republican politicians, concerned that the agreement may result in higher prices and fewer choices for customers.

Tuesday saw Apple unveiling its updated MacBook Air, (powered by Apple’s latest M5 chip), and MacBook Pro models, featuring its latest M5-series chips and bigger base storage. The former, with 512 gigabytes of storage, as standard, retails at US$ 1.47k in the UK. The fourteen-inch MacBook Pro models, powered by the M5 Pro chip, start at US$ 2.94k and now come with one terabyte of storage as standard, up from 512GB in many earlier base configurations. Apple hopes that these enhancements will entice buyers, in a softening PC market exacerbated by rising memory costs, to update their MacBooks. On Monday, Apple launched the iPhone 17e, with its more affordable smartphone model starting at US$ 599, with an increase in base storage to 256 gigabytes.

Ocado, which provides automated technology for distribution centres and runs its own UK online grocery business, through a JV with Marks & Spencer, announced plans to cut some one thousand jobs, (5% of its payroll). The company confirmed that 67% of jobs would be in the UK and the majority of those affected will be from its HQ in Hatfield; there will be no impact on the retail side of the business. This announcement comes on the back of Ocado announcing a 59.0% surge in its core underlying profit measure to US$ 239 million. The job cuts, along with reductions in future R&D research, and the merger of its Ocado Solutions and Ocado Intelligent Automation divisions, will result in savings of some US$ 201 million. Shares that had already shed 27% over the previous twelve months, lost almost 11% in the previous Thursday’s early trading. Much of that decline can be explained by both its North American partners, Kroger and Sobeys, deciding to close a total of four robotic customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) due to weak demand.

Meanwhile Ocado comes out as the second most expensive UK supermarket based on Which’s seventy-item shopping basket, with a US$ 202 price tag and only ahead of Waitrose’s US$ 218. For much of 2025, Aldi was ‘Which’s’ cheapest supermarket, except for one month in summer when Aldi took its place. Now after several months of sparring, Lidl has taken over the leading mantle, (at US$ 161), but there is little, (only US$ 0.83) between the top three with Lidl and Asda. Among the traditional supermarkets, Tesco had been leading the way for a basket of 70 items – but Asda is now marginally cheaper, even if you use a Clubcard; both baskets are in the region of US$ 178. When the longer list is analysed, Asda is still cheaper by just over US$ 9 at US$ 626. Meanwhile, Marks & Spencer retained their title as the UK’s favourite supermarket followed by Tesco, Aldi, Iceland and Waitrose.

Amazing figures show that China registered an average of 26k newly established enterprises every day, equating to a total of 25.74 million new businesses in 2025; the number of new foreign-funded companies totalled 70.39k – 19.1% higher on the year. There was a 14.7% hike, to 19.76k, in investors from countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. It is estimated that these firms made direct investment into China, totalling US$ 16.87 billion – 1.9% higher on the year.

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board has approved an US$ 8.1 billion, four-year loan for Ukraine, with US$ 1.5 billion to be disbursed immediately. This loan, which replaces a 2023 US$ 15.5 billion package, will provide economic stability and enhance Ukraine’s public spending programme, covering an estimated budget shortfall of US$ 136.5 billion over four years, including a US$ 104.37 billion-euro loan from the EU. Coinciding the with the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion, the IMF confirmed the new Extended Fund Facility arrangement for Ukraine – a US$ 136.5 billion international support package; this would resolve Ukraine’s balance of payments problem and restore medium-term external viability. The World Bank, EU, UN and the Ukrainian government this week issued a new report that put the cost of rebuilding Ukraine at US$ 588 billion over the next decade. The world body now projects that Ukraine’s 2026 economic growth will be 0.5% higher at 2.5% this year, whilst the inflation is expected to more than halve from 12.7% to 6.1%; its financing gap this year is estimated to top US$ 52.0 billion.

Japan’s January unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 2.7%, on the month – the first monthly rise noted since September. The number of people with jobs dipped 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted 68.17 million, while those without jobs rose 3.2% to 1.91 million. Meanwhile, the job availability ratio was a marginal 0.02% lower, at 1.18%, That shows that there were one hundred and eighteen jobs available from December to 1.18, meaning there were 118 jobs available for everyone hundred job seekers.

There are early signs that the US labour market may be creaking under intense pressure, as the number of jobs surprisingly declined in February; many experts had forecast that the hiring may have remained stable or even moved higher. There was a 92k decline in payroll numbers, with the unemployment rate nudging marginally higher to 4.4%.  The market is concerned that the inevitable hike in oil prices, attributable to the ongoing war with Iran, will slash growth. It marked the biggest monthly job loss since October, when the US government shut down, and came amid concerns that a jump in oil prices sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran could threaten growth and, in turn, impact labour numbers. Healthcare numbers were hit by strikes last month, whilst federal government jobs continued their downward trend, with 10k less jobs last month; since hitting its peak numbers in October 2024, the federal payroll has shrunk by 330k, equating to some 11%. 2025 was the weakest year for jobs since the pandemic and it seems that this year will not be much better. Normally a rate decrease would be on the cards to stimulate the labour market but in current circumstances – and the distinct possibility of surging oil prices – the subsequent upward pressure on prices, may give the Fed reason to hold off tinkering with interest rates – and at the same time giving the US President another headache.

The 20 February blog, ‘Turning Japanese’ noted:

‘Now with at least a market correction on the horizon that will see price increases weaken, but still in positive territory, banks have to exercise more caution. If there is an ongoing major conflict, then it is highly likely that price rises will fall into negative territory; that could be in the region of 10% to 15% – but not on the scale post GFC when prices registered more than 60%’.

It also noted that the bull run would come to an inevitable end but had opined that this would, in the normal course of business, probably had been in 2027; this crisis has brought the five-year bull run to an earlier than expected but temporary end. A price correction will be seen over this year and as posted above, could be in the region of 10% to 15%. However, this will be over a short period of time and business will return to see a rejuvenated housing sector once again. Beware The Ides of March!