What’s Going On?                                                13 March 2026

It was estimated that today, the UAE defence forces had intercepted seven ballistic missiles and twenty-seven drones on 13 March in countering Iranian attacks. The number of interceptions has now reached some two hundred and eighty-five missiles and one thousand five hundred and sixty-seven UAVs. Expats have to be eternally thankful to the Emiratis (accounting for some 8% of the population) who are defending 100% of the population. It is highly unlikely that any other country could come up with such statistics. May God Bless Them!

Last week, a 31.2k sq ft luxury apartment at Aman Residences Dubai was sold off-plan for US$ 115 million – a welcome indicator that, despite the troubles, there is still confidence in the Dubai property market – and in Dubai itself. Data from DXBinteract, the data platform developed by fäm Properties, in partnership with Dubai Land Department, said the transaction put the value at US$ 3.68k per sq ft. Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, noted that “over 70% of transactions are now end-user driven, not speculative. The buyer base is globally diversified. Mortgage activity has doubled in four years.  The regulatory environment has matured. The fundamentals haven’t changed overnight because of regional events”. He added that “the sale of an ultra-luxury unit at this level is particularly relevant in the current circumstances. It underlines the fact that the Dubai real estate market is structurally stronger than it has ever been”.  

Dubai’s property market also recorded the sale of another luxury off-plan apartment for US$ 25 million on Monday. The apartment, located on Palm Jumeirah within the Armani Beach Residences development, spans some 11.52k sq ft, equating to US$ 2.52k per sq ft.

Imtiaz Developments became the first real estate developer to hand over a residential project – Beach Walk by Imtiaz – on Dubai Islands. It is also the first completed development within Imtiaz’s Dubai Islands portfolio, which is collectively valued at over US$ 1.64 billion. It has more than fifteen active developments across Dubai Islands and has recently launched its sixteenth project, Sea Cliff by Imtiaz. Beach Walk is part of the highly successful Beach Walk series by Imtiaz, a collection of developments on Dubai Islands that has achieved strong market demand and is now completely sold out. The series includes Beach Walk 1, Beach Walk 2, Beach Walk 3, Beach Walk 4, and Beach Walk Grande.

2025 was a mega year for Dubai’s luxury property market with impressive increases in value and volume. 6.67k transactions, 40.8% higher on the year, resulted in a 44.8% hike in value to US$ 39.18 billion. The sector’s progress was down to increasing demand from high-net-worth individuals drawn to the emirate’s investor-friendly regulatory framework, favourable tax environment and global lifestyle appeal. These drivers will still remain valid in the future.

Six hundred sq ft of new Grade A commercial office space at DIFC Square has been handed over ahead of schedule. The development consists of three interconnected glass-façade buildings and includes dedicated parking and retail spaces. This was completed within the twenty-four-month design-and-construction timeframe, with DIFC noting that the development was almost fully pre-leased before handover, with pre-leasing levels reaching 98.45%. Several registered companies have secured space in the development, including the Bank of Singapore, Deutsche Bank, Gallagher Insurance, Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, Moody’s and TP ICAP. Some companies are relocating to larger premises within DIFC Square, (thus creating an estimated one hundred sq ft of additional capacity in the centre’s Gate District and Gate Village), while others are expanding their footprint by taking additional space there. This latest development is only part of a future strategy of growth which will result in the delivery of 1.6 million sq ft of commercial space in 2026 and 2027; upcoming projects include DIFC Living, Innovation Two and Immersive Tower.

At a time when it is laying the foundation stone of its first five-star hotel in Dubai, within the Azizi Riviera community in Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Azizi Developments announced a US$ 20.4 billion hospitality investment programme, that will result in one hundred and fifty-one new  hotels, 90% of which will be located in the emirate, across multiple segments; this will add an extra sixty thousand rooms to Dubai’s current portfolio of some 153k. Plans include one hundred four-star hotels, fifty five-star hotels and a single seven-star property. The developments will create an estimated seventy-five thousand new jobs. Its Chairman, Mirwais Azizi, commented that, “Dubai has consistently proven itself to be one of the world’s most stable, forward-looking and opportunity-rich destinations. The emirate’s leadership has built an environment that inspires confidence among investors and developers, enabling bold projects that contribute to its global standing”. The developer is also planning to launch the Azizi Hospitality Academy, an institution designed to train hospitality professionals and support the sector with skilled talent.

According to DLD statistics, last year, Dubai real estate broker commissions hit US$ 3.7 billion as the number of brokers reaches 32.29k, with broker-led deals surging 54% to 96.44k.

In a bid to protect residents and property owners, while preventing overcrowding and informal housing, HH Sheikh Mohammed introduced new legislation, on Wednesday, regulating the management and occupancy of shared housing in the emirate. Law No. (4) of 2026 sets clear rules for permits, leasing, and safety standards, whilst clarifying the rights of landlords and tenants, setting leasing rules, and introducing fines for those who break them. It also includes steps to prevent overcrowding, reduce informal housing, and handle violations of building and land-use rules.  Under the new law, no person or entity can allocate a unit for shared housing without a Dubai Municipality permit, valid for one year. Importantly, it stipulates that only the owner or a licensed establishment can lease the unit and that tenants or other parties are not allowed to sublease any part of it.

The Dubai Ruler also issued Law No 5 of 2026, allowing government entities to contract private companies to deliver some or all government services under agreed terms. Whilst strengthening PPP cooperation, the new law sets rules to ensure outsourcing follows international best practices. The process will be under the watch of the Dubai Department of Finance which will not only oversee the outsourcing of government services but also to establish the procedures governing these contracts.

Following last month’s appointment of Abdulla Bin Damithan as Chairman of the Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation, DP World has appointed Ahmad Yousef Al-Hassan as CEO and MD for the GCC. He joined DP World in 2010 and has held senior roles in Group Treasury and Business Development, as Deputy CFO at London Gateway in the UK and in Hong Kong as CFO for DP World’s Asia Pacific region. His main responsibility will be to oversee an integrated portfolio spanning ports and terminals, economic zones, digital technology and logistics solutions across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and markets in the Upper Gulf. He noted that Jebel Ali Port’s container and general cargo terminals remain fully operational and that “trade is becoming more interconnected and complex than ever, and our priority is to keep cargo moving safely and efficiently for our customers”.

Earlier in the week, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed attended a specially convened Dubai Majlis, with some three hundred business leaders, to discuss strategies to reinforce economic resilience. The meeting, organised by the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism, was part of the Government of Dubai’s commitment to deepening cooperation with the private sector and strengthening coordination across economic sectors. The Crown Prince commented that “we will continue to take all necessary steps to ensure sustainable economic growth and safeguard our development gains, further enhancing Dubai’s competitiveness”.

S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘AA/A-1+’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the UAE with stable outlook. The agency noted that the UAE’s large fiscal and external buffers should provide space for policy manoeuvring during the current adverse geopolitical developments, including disruption in oil production or exports. It also pointed out that, ”our ratings on the UAE remain supported by the government’s strong fiscal and external positions. Our estimate of the exceptional strength of the government’s consolidated net asset position (estimated at 184% of GDP in 2026) provides a significant fiscal external and economic buffer to external shocks. We calculate government liquid assets at about 210% of GDP”, and that ”the UAE’s general government debt is very low (estimated at about 27% of GDP in 2026) and its consolidated fiscal balance has averaged a surplus of 5.6% over 2021-2025”. It also commented that non-oil sectors constitute about 75% of GDP and this enhances the economy’s ability to withstand the volatility of global markets.

The latest Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has seen a deal signed at a meeting with Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s minister of foreign affairs. The CEPA will also open new opportunities for partnership in research and development, innovation, smart mobility, and energy security, as well as financial services and digital transformation. These areas align with the UAE’s vision to build a knowledge and innovation-based economy and support the priorities of both countries under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership framework signed in 2022. In 2025, non-oil trade with Japan topped US$ 20.3 billion, 16.7% higher on the year, with the UAE being Japan’s top trading partner across the MEA, accounting for 39.0% of Japan’s total trade with Arab and African countries. Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, commented that “by removing trade barriers and facilitating increased investment flows, this CEPA will unlock new avenues for our private sectors, fostering lasting partnerships that benefit both countries and contribute to our sustainability goals and shared prosperity.” Since the CEPA’s programme’s launch in September 2021, the UAE has concluded agreements with more than thirty-five nations accounting for some 25% of the global population.

Rumourmongers both in Dubai and the UK media were keen to post that Standard Chartered Bank had announced that it was evacuating its staff from its Dubai office. The bank has had to come out to clarify the situation, noting that the reports were inaccurate, and that a precautionary work-from-home arrangement, put in place last week, had simply been extended. It added that staff continue to operate remotely while maintaining normal services.

Yesterday DP World released its 2025 financial results, with increases across the board. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA, profits and operating cash flow all headed north by 22.4% to US$ 24.4 billion, 18.0% to US$ 6.4 billion, 32.2% to US$ 1.96 billion and by 14.0% to US$ 6.3 billion. Return on Capital Employed rose 1.0% to 9.9%, on the year, reflecting stronger earnings despite continued geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Capex rose over 40% to US$ 3.1 billion to support capacity expansion and productivity enhancements globally. Port capacity increased to 109 million TEUs.

In 2025, Dubai Residential REIT posted robust figures for the year, with revenue 9.0% higher at US$ 531 million and net profit before changes in the fair value of investment property up by 14.5% to US$ 349 million. Portfolio occupancy was at 98.3% and tenant retention at 88.0%. From 2026 onwards, the REIT intends to distribute at least 80% of profit semi-annually before changes in the fair value of investment property, subject to Board approval and in accordance with applicable regulations and the REIT distribution policy. At its first AGM, the Board approved a US$ 150 million cash dividend, equating to US$ 0.0112 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to US$ 300 million; this works out at a gross dividend yield of approximately 7.7% on IPO price, (or US$ 0.0232 per share). Nabil Mohammad Ramadhan, Chairman of the Board of Directors for Dubai Residential REIT, noted that “we remain committed to strong governance, prudent leverage, and balanced capital allocation, while continuing to progress our committed growth pipeline and maintain our distribution policy of paying out at least 80% of our net profit.”

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation PJSC was listed on the DFM in November 2022 and since then has paid bi-annual dividends, totalling US$ 702 million split over three years’ payments of US$ 232 million (2023), US$ 232 million (2024) and US$ 238 million (2025). Last year, it posted a 4.9% annual increase on revenue to US$ 932 million, with profit growing by  10.5% to US$ 274 million.

Amlak Finance posted remarkable turnaround figures in 2025 that showed for the first time in fifteen years, Amlak fully offset its accumulated losses and reported retained earnings at year-end due to its strong financial performance. Net profit after tax came in at US$ 401 million, (greatly helped by the sale of its Ras Al Khor land bank, completed in July 2025, which generated substantial growth with total proceeds of US$ 790 million, resulting in a gain of US$ 583 million); in 2024, the comparative figure was US$ 3 million. The real estate financier posted 2025 total income, at US$ 850 million, compared to US$ 63 million the previous year prior. Operating costs decreased by 8.9% to US$ 25 million. During the year, Amlak settled

obligations with key financier whilst exiting the 2014 Common Terms Agreement, allowing it to settle all dues with financiers ahead of the October 2026 deadline. It also fully settled its financial obligations with six remaining financiers, paying a total of US$ 269 million including profit, with all pledges, securities, and mortgages released as a result. During the year, it divested itself from both of its overseas investments – in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 09 March on 5,917 points, and having shed eight hundred and six points (12.0%), the previous three weeks, lost a further four hundred and ninety-one points (8.3%), to close the week on 5,426 points, by 13 March 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.68 points lower the previous fortnight, lost US$ 0.75 to close on US$ 3.05 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.78, US$ 8.01, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.38, and closed on 13 March at US$ 0.72, US$ 7.34, US$ 2.02 and US$ 0.37. On 13 March, trading was at three hundred and twenty-five million shares, with a value of US$ four hundred and forty-three million, compared to three hundred and thirty-four million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and thirty-four million on 06 March.

By 3pm London time, 13 March 2026, Brent, US$ 24.19 (5.5%) higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 8.19, (8.8%), to close on US$ 100.88. Gold, US$ 18 (0.4%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 103 (1.9%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 5,062 on 13 March. Silver was trading at US$ 84.33 – US$ 3.32 (3.9%) lower on the week.

An online G7 meeting, earlier in the week, had failed to make a decision on whether to release emergency oil stocks in the wake of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. France’s Finance Minister, Roland Lescure, noted that, “what we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles”. He also added that governments were following the situation closely and that there were currently no supply problems in either Europe or the US.

As widely expected, the International Energy Agency recommended the release of a record high four hundred million barrels 400 million barrels of oil, in (probably) a vain attempt, to try to restrain soaring crude prices; the timing of the release has yet to be decided. Once again it was US pressure that saw the thirty-two members unanimously agree to the resolution and it appears that the US and Japan would be the largest contributors to the IEA release. Whilst US Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, noted that this move would take some pressure off the global price, he did not believe the world was facing an energy shortage. He added that “we’ve got a transit problem, which is temporary. You have a temporary transit problem that we’re resolving militarily and diplomatically, which we can resolve and will resolve”.

In a bid to stabilise rising oil prices, the US has given a thirty-day waiver to Russian oil and petroleum products already in transit; this will allow other countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. It is estimated that would affect one hundred million barrels of Russian crude. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, noted that this “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” would “not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction”. 

UK’s petrol retailers are facing an investigation that they are unjustifiably raising fuel prices at the pumps and thereby are profiting from the conflict in the ME. It seems that petrol scalpers are all over the place and are making hay while the sun shines.

Analytics agency Kpler posted that ME exports are only at about one-third of normal levels, with most shipowners reluctant to take a gamble on sailing through the Straits of Hormuz. It estimates that the amount of oil in the area is now worth more than US$ 200 million, and notes that ME oil producers will have to be considering shutting wells down – or at least cutting production levels – to ease the strain on over full storage facilities. If and when, some sort of normality returns, it could take a further two weeks to restart full production, load the crude from storage and reposition tankers to return to the ME Gulf.

In a US$ 773 million deal, Axel Springer has finally acquired the Telegraph Media Group European; last year, the Daily Mail and General Trust  had proposed to buy the firm for US$ 672 million, but the Starmer government ordered an investigation into that deal on public interest and competition grounds because the DMGT already owned the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Telegraph, the Telegraph Magazine and the website and app. The German media firm’s chief executive commented that he wanted to “preserve the distinctive character and legacy” of the Telegraph, and that it would back an investment programme into TMG to “grow and expand the business”.

At the beginning of this week, the prices of many airfares rocketed. Reports show, for example, that Seoul to London, last Wednesday, 11 March, direct flights were almost eight times higher than a week earlier – US$ 563 to US$ 4.35k. However, airlines have been impacted by higher costs since the start of the Iranian crisis, including jet fuel prices having doubled, longer flight times to bypass ME conflict areas, consumer cutback on air travel etc. Carriers’ share prices took a tumble on Tuesday, with Korean Airlines down 8.6%, Air New Zealand – 7.8%, Cathay Pacific – 5.0%, European airlines – between 2.5% and 6.0% lower, and US carriers by some 4.0%.  It will be interesting to see which airlines have oil hedging in place – a practice stopped by most US airlines some years ago.

HSBC’s Chairman, Georges Elhedery has expressed confidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council members’ economic prospects when the economic impact of the US-Israeli conflict begins to take effect. He commented that“HSBC remains steadfast in our confidence in the GCC and in the long-term strength, resilience and promise of the region. Our conviction in the GCC’s fundamentals and its future is unchanged”. In the first two weeks, all six members of the GCC have been targetedby Iraniandrones and ballistic missiles which have severely disrupted oil and gas exports that account for major parts of their revenue streams.

The beginning of an eventful week saw the Indian rupee sink to its lowest ever level, trading, at 92.52 rupees to the dollar, (25.12 rupees to the dirham) – good news for Indian expats with money to send home. Demand has intensified, as the surging energy prices sent the greenback higher and rising dollar demand from importers. Indeed, on Monday, crude prices surged almost 25% – to US$ 117, (its highest price since July 2022) – fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and fears that energy supply routes could face disruption. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun curbing production, with Qatar earlier having cut its liquefied natural gas shipments. As noted in an earlier blog, India, which imports most of its energy requirements, is particularly susceptible, as higher fuel costs quickly filter into inflation and widen the country’s current account deficit. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been closely monitoring currency markets and had earlier stepped in earlier to support the rupee, is expected to maintain a firm grip on the situation in the coming days as the currency and government bonds remain under pressure.

Official data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela showed that 2025 inflation topped a staggering 475% – almost ten times the 2024 figure 48.0%. Last month, inflation had eased to 14.6% after reaching 32.6% in January – the highest level since January 2023.

Following two years of contraction, 2025 saw Austria’s Gross Domestic Product grow by 0.6%; this recovery follows two consecutive years of contraction. According to preliminary calculations, the nominal GDP is expected to have reached approximately US$ 5.97 billion. The services sector, with a 1.0% rise, was the main driver behind this recovery, with welcome rises in investment activity and consumer spending, whilst there were very marginal 0.1% increases noted in the trade, transport, and accommodation sectors. However, these positive figures were offset by 2.9% and 1.2% contractions in the construction and manufacturing  sectors, whilst the foreign trade sector did not contribute significantly to the recovery because of a 1.7% hike in 2025 imports, with export growth only nudging 0.3% higher.

Rachel Reeves has updated MPs on the economic impact of the Iran war in the House of Commons and, inter alia, said:

• the conflict in the Middle East is likely to put “upward pressure on inflation” in the UK
• additional funding has been approved for the Ministry of Defence to deploy “additional capabilities” in the region, funded by the Treasury
• she is ready to support the release of International Energy Agency oil reserves as supply issues continue from the Gulf
• despite the new pressures, the 5p fuel duty (US$ 0.0667) cut is still set to end later this year

Today, Friday the thirteenth of March, proved to be an unlucky day for sterling, as the pound sank to US$ 1.32 – its lowest level since early December – and for the fourth consecutive day headed south. It fell to US$ 1.32 this morning and has dropped for four days in a row. The rate at the foreign exchange is sitting just below US$ 1.30 on average. The cause of the current malaise is the double whammy of disappointing GDP data and growing geopolitical tensions, which have strengthened the US dollar. The US dollar has made use of its status of being a safe haven, as the world’s reserve currency, as it continues to move upwards by the end of the week.

Since the start of the war with Iran, and the inevitable surge in international inflation, it has become increasingly obvious that the BoE will be changing their mind about what to do with interest rates. Only two weeks ago, the money was on cast iron rate cuts – the first at the March meeting and the other 0.25% reduction sometime later this year. Now there is every chance that the rate will be changed – but upwards by 0.25%. UK gilts have suffered their heaviest selling since the disastrous Kwasi Kwarteng budget during Liz Truss’s fifty days premiership in September 2022. What’s Going On?