Change His Mind!                                                             10 April 2026

Despite broader regional uncertainty, Dubai March real estate activity registered over 10.30k off-plan transactions, worth US$ 8.50 billion, indicating continued demand.

Considering the circumstances, Q1 data for the Dubai real estate sector posted very impressive returns, with the volume and value of transactions both higher on the year – the former by 4.4% to 44.15k and the latter by 21.2% to US$ 37.65 billion. The fact that the value has jumped almost five times more than the volume, in Q1, points to a marked shift towards higher value properties. In times like these, Dubai’s current growth cycle is increasingly being driven by long-term capital allocation, rather than speculative trading. In Q1, the average residential values topped US$ 531 per sq ft, with off-plan apartments averaging US$ 572 per sq ft, and secondary villas going for around US$ 641 per sq ft – indicators perhaps of the increasing demand for larger family homes, and that the market is holding firm.

It is obvious that affordability, proximity to schools, transport connections and leisure facilities have done well for the growth in emerging residential corridors such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South and DAMAC Islands. In January, it was noted that there were over 16k transactions, valued at US$ 14.60 billion, equating to an average sale value of US$ 899k; this could be a sign that there are more institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals in the market. As has been the case in the recent past, off-plan properties continued to dominate market activity, accounting for nearly 66% of total transactions. Knight Frank Dubai has put its head above the turret, forecasting an 8% to 12% growth in the sector this year.

When it comes to the rental sector in Dubai, yields across certain locations continue in the region of 8.0% which would be among the highest in the world. There were some 139.44k transactions seen in Q1, valued at US$ 3.32 billion. With Dubai’s population at around 4.1 million, at the end of February, the sector is being fed by the ongoing arrivals of professionals, entrepreneurs and remote workers impacting on rents in the mid-market and prime residential districts. As with property sales, rentals will remain high and could easily nudge higher but at a slower rate than has been the case since 2021.

Already one of Dubai’s leading business and lifestyle entities, Al Habtoor Group is set to develop a new commercial tower in its busy Al Habtoor City location. The latest US$ 1.36 billion development forms part of the group’s broader expansion strategy in the UAE, with plans for a series of major projects to be unveiled later this year. The Dubai-based developer has long been a supporter of the emirate’s urban development for decades – for at least the past fifty years – and this just indicates their continued confidence in Dubai’s economic future.

Subsequent to the start of the regional conflict, the World Bank yesterday lowered its 2026 overall growth forecasts for the Gulf Cooperation Council and ME countries by 2.4% to 1.8%; 2025 growth was at 4.0%. However, it downgraded GCC 2026 growth by 3.1% to 1.4%, but did add that the UAE had sufficient fiscal space to absorb temporary spending pressures and recover quickly from a short conflict. It forecast the UAE to record higher growth, to 2.4%, than the GCC average – this was 2.7% lower than its January forecast of 5.1% from its January 2026 forecast. It lowered its 2026 forecasts for Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain to 3.1%, 2.4% and 1.3% – with contractions for Kuwait (6.4%) and Qatar (5.7%).

In another boost to the country’s reputation, and a vote of international confidence, as a regional hub, came with the announcement that the UAE it will host the 2029 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Ruler of Dubai, said, “in a global vote that reflects international confidence and underscores the UAE’s strong financial standing, the United Arab Emirates has been chosen to host the 2029 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund in Abu Dhabi, a clear reflection of the strength and capability of its people.” He added, “Proud of the UAE, proud of its economic and financial talent, proud of its growing global standing, and proud of the trust it continues to earn from the world, day after day”.

Late last month, the Irish-based retail giant, Primark, made its much-hyped UAE debut, with the opening of its flagship store at Dubai Mall. Two weeks later, on 07 April, its second outlet opened on the Ground Floor (P1 – Entrance C) at City Centre Mirdif.

Pursuant to a periodic review of the country’s financial position, Moody’s Ratings has maintained the UAE’s credit rating at a stable outlook. The credit agency noted that the unchanged rating reflects continued confidence in the strength of the UAE economy and its fiscal policies, despite ongoing regional geopolitical tensions. It also highlighted several factors supporting the UAE’s credit profile, including high income levels, strong institutions and effective policymaking, alongside progress in economic diversification. Furthermore, other considerations included the federal government’s low debt levels and substantial fiscal reserves, built up over years of budget surpluses, as key strengths underpinning financial stability. Earlier in the month, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the UAE’s sovereign rating at AA/A-1+, with a stable outlook, citing strong public finances and significant fiscal and external reserves.

This week, the Minister of Foreign Trade chaired a coordination meeting that brought together global shipping leaders and maritime industry representatives to discuss and tackle the issues, affecting regional supply chains, emanating from the current regional crisis. Beside Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, other high-ranking officials, in attendance, included PCFC Chairman, Abdulla bin Damithan, and Dubai Customs Director General, Dr Abdulla Busenad. The Chairman reaffirmed the UAE’s commitment to maintaining the smooth flow of trade and strengthening supply chain resilience through close collaboration and forward-looking solutions. He added that efforts were underway to expand alternative trade corridors and implement advanced customs systems, reinforcing the UAE’s position as a trusted global logistics hub. Abdulla bin Damithan highlighted the importance of ongoing collaboration, whilst pointing to improvements in alternative routes, including Fujairah and Khorfakkan ports, and enhanced regional connectivity to support efficient cargo movement. Dr Busenad highlighted a series of customs initiatives aimed at facilitating trade and boosting efficiency, including to streamline transit cargo procedures, to expand use of green corridors, and to pilot projects such as the Advance Cargo Information system, and a new maritime feeder service linking the region with India.

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance confirmed that UAE air defence systems did not detect any ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or UAVs launched from Iran. Since the start of the troubles, UAE air defences have engaged a total of five hundred and thirty-seven ballistic missile, twenty-six cruise missiles and two thousand, two hundred and fifty-six UAVs.

With the ME crisis entering its sixth week, reports indicate that some banks have introduced measures, including loan deferments, loan restructuring and flexible repayment options.  Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the Central Bank had earlier introduced a broader financial “resilience package” aimed at maintaining liquidity and ensuring that banks can continue supporting customers and businesses during the crisis. Four aims of this initiative are to safeguard financial stability, provide liquidity support, introduce regulatory flexibility and sustain lending activity, during these worrying times. Bank customers could benefit, in the short-term, by the financial institutions allowing revised loan terms and payment holidays.

Last week the Dubai government introduced a US$ 272 million measure to support businesses, and the Central Bank a comprehensive Financial Institution Resilience Package.  Now, Emirates NBD has unveiled a SME business support package that will see this sector “greater flexibility at a time when it matters most”, offering a set of temporary fee-relief measures including:

waiver of loan deferment fees
waiver of international courier charges for business card deliveries
waiver of cheque return fee due to unforeseen cash flow interruption
waiver of cash withdrawal fees at ATMs across the UAE and GCC
waiver of business debit card replacement fee
30% discount on charges for letter of credit and letter of guarantees                                                  40% discount on cash management services

Both the Dubai Integrated Economic Zones Authority and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIEZ) have introduced packages of flexible economic measures to support businesses operating across their zones. The measures apply immediately across DIEZ’s three zones – Dubai Airport Freezone, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubai CommerCity. The measures include:

• a three-month deferral of fees related to shareholder amendment and licence activity amendments
• selected administrative fees, including late licence renewal penalties, will also be waived until conditions stabilise
• option to pay rent on a monthly basis
• full waiver of instalment-related fees, waiver of fees associated with company restructuring and authorised capital amendments.

These measures are aimed at easing short-term operational and financial pressures.

Emirates NBD’s bid to be a majority shareholder in India’s RBL Bank has borne fruit with Indian regulators giving the deal a green light but restricting its voting rights, at 26%, aligning with India’s banking regulations. The approval, valid for one year, sets the stage for one of the largest cross-border deals in the country’s banking sector. The deal is the first time that the Indian government has allowed a profitable mid-sized bank to come under the majority ownership of a foreign entrée. The Dubai bank had announced plans to invest about US$ 3.0 billion to acquire a controlling stake through a fresh share issue, with the capital flowing directly into RBL, and will allow Emirates NBD a fast track into one of the world’s fastest-growing banking markets.

A currency stock agreement, with a nominal value of US$ 5.45 billion and a tenor of five years, has been signed by the UAE’s Central Bank and the Central Bank of Bahrain. The deal will allow each institution to obtain each other’s currency without resorting to foreign exchange markets, reducing transaction costs and exchange-rate risk for cross-border trade and investment. CBUAE Governor, Khaled Mohamed Balama, noted that the agreement reaffirms the two countries shared commitment to expand financial and monetary cooperation, as well as strengthening trade and investment ties.

With it having approved its first dividend in eleven years – and meeting a quorum for the first time in six years – Union Properties’ AGM was held last Tuesday, 07 April. With a 68% shareholder participation, a US$ 0.0082 cash dividend was approved. Last year, the company returned a 39.4% hike in revenue to US$ 201 million, and a 49.8% growth surge in operating profit to US$ 66 million. A new Board of Directors was also elected for a three-year term, and included:

• Shaikh Nasser Rashid Almoalla
• Mohamed Fardan Al Fardan
• Amer Abdulaziz Khansaheb
• Ahmed Salem Alhosani
• Ahmad Bin Mohammad Al Qassimi
• Khaled Nasser Al Shamsi
• Rana Abdelkarim Shashaa

The DFM opened the week on Monday 06 April on 5,486 points, and having shed sixty-five points (1.2%), the previous fortnight, gained two hundred and twenty-nine points (4.2%), to close the week on 5,486 points, by 10 April 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.10 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.04 to close on US$ 3.24 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74 US$ 7.68, US$ 2.00 and US$ 0.37, and closed on 10 April at US$ 0.75, US$ 8.36, US$ 2.04 and US$ 0.39. On 10 April, trading was at one hundred and fifty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fourteen million, compared to one hundred and two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety-two million on 10 April.

By 10 April 2026, Brent, US$ 5.08 (4.5%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 19.77, (17.3%), to close on US$ 94.34. Gold, US$ 175 (3.9%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 75 (1.6%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,752 on 10 April. Silver was trading at US$ 75.95 – US$ 2.93 (4.0%) higher on the week.

Even if peace was somehow restored overnight, energy prices will not automatically head south, as the scenario of shortages and higher costs will continue to spook the market for some time, until the supply chains return to some form of normalcy. Until the ceasefire gains traction, the energy markets will fluctuate almost on a daily basis. However, there seems to be some positivity returning to the market, with analysts pointing to a possible 0.25% rate hike, to 4.0%, this quarter; only three weeks ago, the money was on three rate rises in 2026.

In a strongly worded letter on its website, the Marks and Spencer’sretail director, Thinus Keeve, has warned that shoplifting is getting “more brazen, more organised and more aggressive”. The letter, aimed mainly at the Starmer government and the London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, noted that “without a government seriously cracking down on crime and a mayor that prioritises effective policing, we are powerless”. Last Saturday, about one hundred police were dealing with antisocial behaviour in Clapham, as scores of teenagers and young adults took part in so-called “link-ups”  using social media apps  before surging into shops, one of which was M&S. When it comes to retail crime in London, last year’s figures were 19.0% higher on the year, at 95.30k – compared to a 5.0% hike in the rest of England and Wales.

US investment company Pershing Square is interested in acquiring Universal Music Group, in a US$ 64.30 billion takeover offer, with a merger that would see the new company listed in New York. The buying company, with billionaire Bill Ackman as its chief executive, already owns a stake in Universal, along with holdings in Google, Meta and Amazon, as well as Restaurant Brands International, which includes Burger King. Universal, the world’s largest music company, that represents artistes such as Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter and Kendrick Lamar, also owns labels such as EMI and Island Records, along with Abbey Road studios; it is home to nine of the top ten global recording artists last year.

Universal said it would be considering the offer and assessing its impact on the various stakeholders involved.  Ackman noted that Universal had reshaped the industry to put artists at its centre and had shown it could seize growth opportunities from AI while protecting intellectual property. However, he did add that it had issues – unrelated to the music business – that had impacted on its languishing share price but that could all be “addressed with this transaction”.

Walt Disney is expected to announce about 1k redundancies, of its 231k payroll, with many from the company’s marketing department, with the decision being made before the arrival of its new chief executive, Josh D’Amaro, last month. The person behind the latest move is Asad Ayaz, appointed as its chief marketing officer in January. He also plans to unite the company’s marketing group and reduce expenses under code-named Project Imagine.

Yesterday, Willie Walsh, whose impressive CV includes being CEO of both Aer Lingus and BA parent, International Airlines Group, resigned his position as head of the International Air Transport Association to become the CEO of Indigo, starting this August. On the back of a year when it seems to have had more than its fair share of negative press, troubles with the regulators, and having to cancel thousands of flights in December due to inadequate planning for pilot rest and duty rules, the airline, which has 65% of the domestic market, needs a change of direction. Not only does the new incumbent have to fix its damaged reputation but also to bolster the airline’s international routes and to manage short- and medium-haul airline’s transition to long haul. The market was pleased with this surprise announcement, with its share price 6.0% higher on the day – but was still 16.0% down on the year, having gained 11.0% last year.

Campbell Wilson, a former Singapore Airlines executive, was brought in, on a five-year contract to 2027, by the Tata Group, in 2022 to be Air India’s CEO. His remit was to lead a turnaround after Tata Group bought Air India from the Indian government, following years of losses.  In the intervening four years, he has been able to refurbish aircraft and restructure operations but has been dogged by not only safety concerns and operational challenges but also financial losses and the aftermath of a deadly 2025 Ahmedabad crash last year that killed two hundred and sixty people. Over one hundred aircraft have been added to the fleet, almost all its narrowbodies have been refitted and widebodies have begun to be added to its inventory. Furthermore, there has been a comprehensive transformation including modernising systems, launching new products, and raising service and operational standards across ground and air. The incumbent will remain in his post until a suitable replacement is found. The airline has also posted losses since its return to private ownership four years ago, with the most recent deficit being some US$ 1.0 billion, for Air India and its low-cost arm.

Ahead of its 14 April Economic Outlook, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF’s MD, has posted that, because of the impact of the ME war, global inflation will be higher and growth slower than earlier estimates. She added that even if the conflict was to be quickly resolved, the IMF forecast would still be roughly the same, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to an effective blockage of 20% of the global energy supply. She estimates that global oil supply has been reduced by 13.0% and impacting not only oil and gas shipments but also related supply chains such as helium and fertilisers. If there had been no conflict, it had projected global growth of 3.3% this year and 3.2% next. On 30 March, the global agency was looking at a possible downgrade, with the latest comment from its supremo that “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth”.

There is no doubt that the main topic of conversation at next week’s IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington will be the war. It is inevitable that the hardest hit nations will be poor, vulnerable countries with no energy, with many of them having no fiscal space to cope with the price increases. With 85% of IMF members being energy importers, Georgieva commented that some unnamed countries had asked for funding help, but that IMF could augment some existing lending programs to meet countries’ needs. On the other side, Qatar has also been on the receiving end, having seen their production facilities being hit by Iran; it now estimates that it will take up to five years to restore some 17.0% of their natural gas production. The International Energy Agency has reported that seventy-two energy facilities have been damaged in the war, of which about a third have suffered significant damage.

The Trump administration has been impacted, on the domestic front, from the ME war, as its March inflation level surged 0.9%, on the month, to 3.3% – its highest level since May 2024. The data, issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, was the first to take account of the global energy crisis caused by the conflict, as energy prices continued to hover around the three-digit level, mainly driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, over twelve million UK citizens saw their state pension rise by US$ 762 a year because of the government’s triple lock policy; this guarantees that, every April, pensioners will receive the higher of the annual inflation rate, wage, growth or 2.5%. Monday’s 4.8% rise – which is in line with average earnings growth – will move the new state pension higher to US$ 320 a week, whilst the full basic state pension will rise to US$ 245 a week. Although welcome by the vast majority of recipients, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has argued that the generosity of this policy has a “substantial and growing impact on public finances”, especially as the population ages, and that the triple lock on pensions should be scrapped. The think tank estimated that this strategy could cost a further US$ 59.00 billion on top of the OBR’s estimate that the state pension will rise by over US$ 107.00 billion in current terms come the 2070s. Half of the increase is down to the triple lock.

New tax laws introduced by the Starmer administration will see UK expats having to contribute more money to build up their full state pension, with the main change being that to qualify for the full new state pension, (for those reaching state pension age after 06 April 2016), thirty-five years of national insurance contributions will be needed. To be eligible for any pension at all, ten qualifying years are required, with amounts pro-rated between ten and thirty-five years. In the past, expats, leaving the country, with at least three years of contributions, could pay Class 2 voluntary national insurance, and in some cases could contribute US$ 244 a year to add a “contributing year”. Under the change, people will generally need at least ten years of UK national insurance contributions or residence to qualify, and those living abroad may have to pay nearly US$ 1.28k a year in Class 3 voluntary contributions if they choose to top up their record.

With US bilateral diplomatic relations hitting an all-time low, Sir Keir Starmer’s rapport with Donald Trump has hit rock bottom, and there are little signs of any improvement. His decision not to join Trump’s war did not go down well in Washington and now his government has been forced to change tack and perform yet another U-Turn, after Trump branded the Chagos Island deal an “act of great stupidity”. The UK had decided to cede sovereignty of the archipelago to Mauritius but retain a one-hundred-year term lease on its largest island, Diego Garcia – home for a joint US-UK military base. Because it cannot proceed without US approval, the bill appears to be dead in the water, and the only hope is that Trump will change his mind during King Charles’ state visit later in the month. It is highly unlikely that he will Change His Mind!