Duck Before You Drown!                                                 16 February 2024

Real estate transactions for the week ending 16 February are currently unavailable.

Noting that all realty firms should always adhere to the terms and conditions stipulated for real estate advertisements, (including to provide accurate and correct information to customers by obtaining advertising licenses), the Real Estate Regulatory Agency has fined thirty firms, each US$ 13.6k, (AED 50k), for breaking the rules. The industry watchdog had previously issued circulars and warnings to emphasise the provisions and conditions of real estate advertising and ensure compliance. The general public have been advised not to deal with any real estate advertisement that does not have a permit and QR code.

On Wednesday, the Dubai Land Department gave real estate agents a three-day deadline to remove the property advertisements that are no longer up for sale or rental, advising them that they “must update the digital real estate platform portals within three working days, which should result in removing all unavailable properties for rental or sales.”

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai earlier in the week, Bill Winters, chief executive of Standard Chartered, seems to have disagreed with a recent IMF forecast that downgraded projected Mena economies by 0.5% to 2.9%.  He noted that, “Whenever I hear these IMF-type figures, it doesn’t resonate with what I see on the ground because there’s just tremendous growth [in the GCC], with obviously huge increases in population and economic activity,” and that “This is an extremely bullish environment despite the fact that there’s a war in the neighbourhood. The Gulf is a sanctuary for global capital and people – and that was clear during [and after] Covid, given the influx of business and the people coming with it.” At the conference, IMF’s MD, Kristalina Georgieva noted that the global economy, meanwhile, is set for a “soft landing” and interest rates in the world’s major economies are likely to ease by the middle of 2024 but warned that a prolonged war in Gaza could have spill over effects on the wider global economies.

In an agreement with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority, (and all-electric aircraft company Joby Aviation), UK-based Skyports Infrastructure aims to have air taxis operational in the emirate by 2025. The deal sees the RTA overseeing the air mobility services, with Joby given the exclusive right to operate air taxis in Dubai for six years. Skyports was granted exclusive rights to design, construct and operate an initial network of four vertiports in Dubai International Airport, the Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina. It seems highly likely that Dubai will become the first location in the world with a commercial, citywide electric air taxi services The Joby Aviation S4, with a top speed of 321 kph, can accommodate a pilot and four passengers, with a maximum distance of 161 km; it is estimated that a flight from DXB to the Palm Jumeirah will take ten minutes.

A MoU between the UAE and India will see the partnership developing digital infrastructure and AI which will explore and evaluate the technical and investment potential of developing data centre projects in India. Initial capacity will be two 2 gigawatts, (supporting the deployment of a supercomputer cluster) and AI compute capacity of 8 exaflops for varied sectoral use. The MoU also seeks to promote investments in digital public infrastructure, AI, R&D, and innovation, while fostering public-private collaboration and knowledge exchange to support India’s digital growth and innovation. It is estimated that India’s data centre network could be valued as high as US$ 1 trillion by 2030. 

Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid has announced the launch of the Buna Payments Platform, an innovative platform that delivers advanced payment solutions that meet the highest global standards of compliance; it will also facilitate the clearing and settling of Arab payments. He noted that “the platform underscores the critical role of payment systems in bolstering the Arab economy’s infrastructure and is pivotal in promoting financial inclusion.”

According to the World Bank, in 2023, remittances to poor and middle-income countries grew an estimated 3.8% to reach US$ 669 billion. India was the top remittance recipient country, receiving funds worth US$ 125 billion, followed by Mexico, China, the Philippines, and Egypt, with remittances of US$ 67 billion, US$ 50 billion, US$ 40 billion and US$ 24 billion. The US continued to be the largest source of remittances.

Following approval by the Central Bank of the UAE, it seems that money exchanges houses will gradually increase charges in certain remittance corridors probably starting in Q2; this is the first time since 2019 that charges, via an introduction of an optional fee adjustment, have been increased. The chairman of the Foreign Exchange and Remittance Group, Mohammad Al Ansari noted that “it will be implemented after studying each corridor and could happen in the second quarter of this year. On Monday, the Ferg said exchange houses could opt for a minimum fee increase of 15%, which would typically equate to US$ 0.68 (AED 2.50), with the decision to increase fees dependent on individual exchange companies and their operational costs. The fee increase is expected to be applicable for remittance services through physical branches, while remittances offered through mobile apps of exchange houses will most likely remain unchanged or even reduced to maintain competitiveness. Despite the increase, it is anticipated the average remittance cost of sending US$ 200 will remain at less than 3.5% in the UAE – well down on the global 6.2% average.

Although Al Ansari Financial Services posted a 16.8% decline in 2023 net profit to US$ 135 million and a marginal 1.9% dip in operating income, the firm had a relatively good year. A statement noted that “headwinds in major remittance markets (such as India, Egypt, Pakistan) caused an 8.0% drop in remittance operating income. However, strong diversification drove an overall 9.0% increase in non-remittance operating income, largely mitigating the decline. Notably, transactions across all services grew,” The news in the paragraph above will undoubtedly help offset these costs and strengthen financial performance in the future. A US$ 163 million (AED 600 million) dividend, equating to US$ 0.0218 (AED 8 dirhams), was announced, half of which had already been paid out; this results in a dividend yield of 7.74%.. Al Ansari Exchange’s has two hundred and fifty-six physical branches and is currently in negotiations to integrate with Oman Exchange in Kuwait, with synergies to be realised Q2.

 Dubai International Financial Centre posted a 23% hike in 2023 revenue to US$ 352 million, with net profit surging 45% to US$ 203 million. Last year, there was a 26% hike in active companies, to 5.5k, employing more than 41.5k people, with the total number of new company registrations surging 34% to reach 1. 45k.The number of financial companies grew 22% to reach nearly 1.7k, while non-financial companies rose 28% to over 3.8k. Last year, the number of FinTech companies almost trebled to nine hundred and two, with the DIFC the base for three hundred and fifty wealth and asset management firms. DIFC also posted that it is ahead of schedule to achieve its target of doubling its gross domestic product contribution by 2030, aiming “to achieve the objectives outlined in Dubai’s Economic Agenda (D33), positioning Dubai among the top four global financial centres.” 

Amanat Holdings released impressive 2023 figures this week. The region’s leading healthcare and education investment company posted a 38.9% surge in net profit to US$ 42 million and a 40.0% hike in revenue to US$ 196 million; earnings per share rose 25% to US$ 0.0136. The revenue increases was down to “by almost two-fold growth at the education platform and the growth at the healthcare platform through the consolidation of Sukoon as well as the continued expansion of our long-term care offering in Saudi Arabia.” Total assets were 7.4% higher at US$ 1.14 billion.

Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company posted a 33% hike in its 2023 net profit, to US$ 449 million, on the back of record revenue, up 7.0% to US$ 3.72 billion amid the introduction of generative AI in its operations, along with “sustained demand for mobile services, and strong growth in post-paid and fixed services”. Revenue from Du’s mobile services segment rose by 6.2% annually to US$ 1.66 billion, while fixed services revenue grew by 8.6% to US$ 1.03 billion, with other revenue increasing by 6.4% to US$ 1.03 billion. Ebitda rose 12.8% to US$ 1.58 billion, reflecting “top-line growth combined with margin expansion and disciplined cost management”. Q4 revenue and net profit both headed north by 7.3% to US$ US$ 970 million and by 38.5% to US$ 108 million. Before its earnings release on Tuesday, Du’s shares were trading at US$ 1.58.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 12 February, 45 points (1.1%) lower the previous week, gained 30 points (0.7%) to close the trading week on 4,259 by Friday 16 February 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.06 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.13, closing on US$ 2.23 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.66, US$ 4.71, US$ 1.74, and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.96, US$ 1.78 and US$ 0.37. On 16 February, trading was at 214 million shares, with a value of US$ 90 million, compared to 87 million shares, with a value of US$ 71 million, on 09 February 2024.

By Friday, 16 February 2024, Brent, US$ 4.99 higher (6.4%) the previous week, gained US$ 6.27 (8.1%) to close on US$ 83.47. Gold, US$ 16 (0.8%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 13 (0.6%) to trade at US$ 2,039 on 16 February.

A survey by Hays ME reckons that, with the job market growing, 39% of professionals working in the GCC are planning to change companies this year, with the main reason being a lack of career development opportunities. What seems to be on the high side is that 78% of employers in the Gulf region expect an increase in salaries in their organisation. Interestingly, 41% of employers said there were more candidates applying for jobs than in the past – a possible indicator of a shortage of skilled professionals. The GCC Salary Guide, which covered 2.3k employers and working professionals – and eleven professions in nearly four hundred roles – also posted that 67% of employers were wanting to grow their organisation’s headcount this year.

It seems that the El Niño weather phenomenon is the main driver behind global cocoa prices hitting fresh record highs, as dry weather hurts crops in West Africa, (which produces the bulk of global supply), especially the world’s two biggest producers of cocoa, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Late last week, cocoa prices topped US$ 5.87k a ton, which has roughly doubled since the start of 2022. The soaring cocoa prices have already impacted on major chocolate makers’ margins and higher prices for consumers. Hershey has warned: “historic cocoa prices are expected to limit earnings growth this year.”, with the major player not ruling out putting up prices for customers. Recently, Which? noted that the price of some festive chocolate box sets had risen by at least 50% in a year. Although the overall inflation for UK supermarket food and drink eased in November to 8.3%, the rise in the chocolate prices was significantly higher at 15.3%.

This week, the global leading crypto currency headed above the US$ 50k level, driven by renewed interest in high-risk assets, as the US Fed starts to prepare to lower interest rates, and enhanced consumer confidence following the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval for Bitcoin ETFs. Crypto trading platform Bitget noted that on 01 January, when Bitcoin was approved, Bitcoin trading volumes were at US$ 16 billion and by 10 January, they had grown to US$ 50 billion. Bitcoin rose by about 12% in the second week of February 2024. The total crypto market capitalisation has risen to US$ 1.87 trillion with Bitcoin crossing US$ 50k for the first time in two years, but still some way off its 2021 high of US$ 67.5k.

Airbus posted a 13.2% decline in its Q4 net profit to US$ 1.56 billion, as revenue came in 11.0% higher on US$ 24.52 billion; full year net profit fell 11.0% to US$ 4.09 billion, not helped by charges related to its space business. The world’s biggest plane-maker expects to deliver eight hundred, jets, as it steps up production of its top-selling A320 family of narrow-body aircraft – an 8.8% increase on 2023 figures, subject to no further disruptions in the global economy, air traffic, the supply chain, the company’s internal operations and its ability to deliver products. Airbus confirmed that it was “on track” to be producing seventy-five A320s Neos a month by 2025. If it meets its 2024 target, that would mean that it would be pulling ahead of Boeing which has been barred by the US Federal Aviation Administration from increasing the existing 737 Max production rate, pending improvements in quality control. This gives the French company an added advantage in a market that pits the A320s against Boeing’s 737 Max. However, Airbus has its own problems including supply chain bottlenecks, fewer skilled workers and an ongoing problem with its Pratt and Whitney engines that has led to hundreds of A320 Neo jets being grounded for inspection. Having hired an extra 13k people last year, the plane-maker is planning to add “roughly half” that number this year.

Following Sainsbury’s recently warning about the availability of black tea, Tetley Tea has confirmed it is monitoring tea supplies on a daily basis as imports reach a “critical period”. The country’s second biggest tea brand said supplies were “much tighter” than it would like, amid disruption in the Red Sea, and noting that its current production levels were not changing, the amount it was able to hold in stock as a buffer would drop “but we’re pretty confident we can maintain supply levels”.

2k jobs are at risk with news that The Body Shop’s UK business had entered administration, but its two hundred retail outlets, and several franchises, will remain open as usual, while efforts are made to try to save the UK firm. Restructuring firm FRP said it would now consider all options to find a way forward for the business and noted that creating “a more nimble and financially stable UK business” was an important step in it becoming a modern beauty brand “relevant to customers and able to compete for the long term”. Part of the process will inevitably see costs, including on property and rents, being slashed and job cuts. Aurelius, the European private equity firm, became Body Shop’s third buyer since 2006; its funder Anita Roddick died in 2007. It bought the brand for US$ 261 million last November and took the drastic decision to place it into administration after poor sales during the key Christmas trading period. Rather like the demise of Wilko last year, three of the reasons for its current problems were that it failed to keep up with competitors on pricing, the boom in online trading and the cost-of-living crisis which saw customers’ spending squeezed.

Since announcing its annual financial results on 07 February, by Tuesday (13 February) this week, UK chip designer Arm Holdings, (whose chips power almost every smartphone in the world), had posted a 98% surge in its share value, over a period of five working days; it noted then that a demand in its AI-related technology had boosted its sales. Arm’s technology is not directly used for AI work, but chip makers like Nvidia are choosing it for central processing units that complement their AI-specific chips. The Cambridge-based firm, founded in 1990, and taken private by Japan’s SoftBank in 2016 in a US$ 32 billion deal, only returned to the stock market last September. Before then, plans to sell the firm to Nvidia, which started in 2020 were shelved in April 2022, after global regulators objected to the deal. Indeed, Nvidia, which has seen its share value more than triple in value over the last year on soaring demand for its AI chips, has seen its market cap currently valued at US$ 1.8 trillion. Even though it has been badly impacted by the declining valuations of some of its investments, including struggling office space firm WeWork, Softbank, which still holds a roughly 90% stake in Arm, has seen its own shares gain almost 30% in the past week.

Claiming the main reason being regulator Ofgem allowing it to recover losses of US$ 629 million it racked up in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, British Gas, which has 7.5 million customers, posted a tenfold increase in 2023 profits to US$ 944 million, compared to just US$ 91 million a year earlier. However, with firms making record profits when energy prices spiked, suppliers that took on the customers of bust retailers made hefty losses. Centrica, British Gas’s parent company, said its profits fell by 17% to US$ 3.52 billion. This comes at a time when millions of UK households have been hit by higher electricity and gas bills, with energy being the main driver in the rising cost of living in the UK. This came about because Ofgem allowed energy providers to take a bigger slice of profits in H1 2023, to make up from losses arising from customers not being able to pay their energy accounts and honouring existing contracts when dozens of small energy providers went bust in 2021.

It is reported that Nike will reduce its payroll by 2%, (1.6k jobs) starting today and until the end of next month. It seems that those employed in stores and distribution centres, as well as those in its innovation team will not be impacted. Last December, the company slashed its annual revenue forecast and laid out a US$ 2 billion cost-saving plan, blaming cautious consumer spending. Nike is to use its resources to increase investment in categories like running, women’s apparel and the Jordan brand. The sportswear giant has yet to make any comment. These retrenchments will cost the company about US$ 400 million to US$ 450 million in employee severance costs this quarter.

Late last month, Jeff Bezos announced plans that he would be selling up to fifty million shares and, true to his word, on Tuesday, he confirmed that he would divest twenty-four million Amazon shares, worth more than twenty-four million dollars. This is the first time that he has sold any of his stock since 2021. One reason why he has done this, is that last November, he posted that he was moving to Miami, from the Seattle region, adopting a so-called 10b5-1 plan, after Washington state instituted a 7.0% capital gains tax in 2022 – which is not applicable in Florida. It is estimated that this move could have saved the billionaire US$ 288 million so far.

Another high-tech mover is Eon Musk’s decision to shift his rocket company SpaceX from the US state of Delaware to Texas, in line with a similar move two weeks ago for Tesla. This follows a January court ruling in the state of Delaware that annulled his US$ 55.8 billion Tesla pay package from electric car maker Tesla following which the billionaire entrepreneur advised “if your company is still incorporated in Delaware, I recommend moving to another state as soon as possible”.; this despite many big companies, including Amazon, being registered in the state, known for having light taxation.

With Q4 results showing its GDP had dipped by a worse than expected 0.4%, (with analysts actually expecting a positive 1.0%), Japan entered into a technical recession after it had posted a 3.3% contraction in Q3. (A technical recession is called after two consecutive quarterly GDP deficits). Another highlight of Q4 returns is that it seems that Japan may have lost its position as the world’s third-largest economy to Germany. The IMF will only declare a change in its rankings, once both countries have published the final versions of their economic growth figures, but latest figures indicate that Germany’s economy at US$ 4.4 trillion is now US$ 0.2. trillion higher than that of Japan, mainly driven by the yen’s weakness to the greenback, having fallen by about 9.0% last year.

With only 500 jobs created in the month, Australia’s January unemployment rate rose by 22k to 4.1% – the first time in two years that the unemployment rate had been above the 4.0% level; furthermore, hours worked fell by 2.5%, with the underemployment rate ticking up 0.1% to 6.6%. This would seem to indicate that the country’s labour market is cooling down partly as a result of the RBA’s rapid rate rises over the past two years, along with higher inflation, and economic uncertainty. The January figures could have also been skewed by the fact that many Australians were still on holidays when the survey was conducted, as well as other seasonal factors. Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy has said the economy remains on track to beat inflation without a large spike in unemployment, noting that consumer spending is at a fifteen-year low driven by the double whammy of high inflation and high interest rates. He also noted that although households are saving less and consuming less than at any time since the GFC, the level of unemployment remains low by historical standards, which he expects to peak at 4.5% next year. In contrast, the situation around ten years ago was that unemployment settled between 5% – 6 % because of the overzealous use of interest rates maintaining too-low inflation, and it can only be hoped that the RBA does not repeat that mistake again.

Although US price increases softened again last month by 0.3% to 3.1%, it was less than expected, as higher housing and food costs offset a decline in petrol prices. On the news earlier in the week, financial markets opened lower as it appeared that authorities have not got inflation fully under control and thus reducing the chances of any Fed rate cuts in the short term. In June 2022, US inflation peaked at 9.1% and even though progress has been made, it is still over the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. February core inflation remained unchanged over the past two months at 3.9%, as some costs were higher on the year, including housing (6.0%), car insurance (20.5%) and personal care (5.3%).

There was some surprise when UK January inflation figures were relayed, indicating that it had remained flat at 4.0%, 0.2% lower than market expectations, but still double the BoE’s 2.0% target. However, although food prices fell for the first time since September 2021, they are still 7.0% higher than a year ago, with gas/electricity prices climbing at a faster rate than in January 2023; food prices were 0.4% lower attributable to price falls in bread cereals, cream crackers and chocolate biscuits.

The Office for National Statistics posted that by the end of Q4 2023, UK wage growth slowed again, (by 0.4% to 6.2%), but is still outpacing price rises. The number of vacancies fell for the nineteenth consecutive time, down 26k to 932k, in the quarter to January, as the unemployment rate dipped 0.1% to 3.8%. However, there were some signs that the downward trend in job vacancies could be slowing, but the statistics watchdog has said it could not guarantee the reliability of jobs market data, and that it is currently updating how it gathers information about employment, but this will not be fully in place until September. BoE’s Andrew Bailey has said that the ONS figures are the Bank’s only way to gauge unemployment, so their current unreliability is “posing challenges” as policymakers weigh up what to do about interest rates in the coming months. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, which sets interest rates, always closely watch wage growth data and will only cut rates further when they can see more evidence of a tougher jobs market in order to avoid making cuts it may need to backtrack on later.

Just like Japan, the UK went into technical recession at the back end of 2023, after the economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 2023, following Q3’s minus 0.1%. The Office for National Statistics voiced that “all the main sectors fell on the quarter, with manufacturing, construction and wholesale being the biggest drags on growth, partially offset by increases in hotels and rentals of vehicles and machinery,” Excluding the Covid year of 2020, last year’s meagre 0.1% growth was the worst quarterly performance since 2009, when the economy was still reeling from the GFC, and follows a positive 4.3% expansion in 2022. Three drivers behind the disappointing Q4 results were the doctors’ strikes, a fall in school attendance and shoppers spending less in the December run up to Christmas. These figures will not be much help for Chancellor, who will have to cut public spending even more sharply if he wants to deliver promised tax reductions in his 06 March budget, more so because in recent weeks as interest costs on UK government borrowing have increased. Questions are being raised whether Rishi Sunak can meet his pledge made last January to grow the economy. Lord Rose, chairman of Asda, commented that “it looks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, it walks like a duck, it is a duck – it is a recession.” Maybe the message to both the embattled Prime Minister and the befuddled Chancellor of the Exchequer is Duck Before You Drown!

Who Wants To Be A Billionaire?                                      09 February 2024

The real estate and properties transactions, totalling 3,543, were valued at US$ 2.67 billion for the week ending 09 February 2024. The sum of transactions was 197 plots, sold for US$ 439 million, and 2,572 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.55 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Warsan Fourth for US$ 33 million, the second in Al Barshaa South for US$ 21 million and in Wadi Al Safa 3 for US$ 15 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with seventy-seven sales, worth US$ 54 million, followed by thirty sales, in Al Hebiah Fifth, for US$ 21 million, and eleven sales, in Jabal Ali First, valued at US$ 14 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were a villa in Island 2 for US$ 38 million, another in Jumeirah First, for US$ 32 million, and an apartment in Al Safouh Second for US$ 22 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 490 million; one hundred and thirty-five properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 198 million.

Despite a slower growth of 5.6%, in 2023, Dubai outpaced Mumbai, Bangkok, Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Madrid, Barcelona, Geneva, Singapore and other cities in terms of capital value appreciation. Savills projects this year’s growth to be as high as 5.9%, which places the emirate a global second to Sydney’s 9.9%. It is estimated that around 9.5k millionaires made Dubai their home in the past two years. The consultancy noted that the Dubai prime market is still relatively competitively priced by global standards, at US$ 850 per sq ft, whilst offering a comparatively low cost of living, a relatively easy visa process, and a warmer climate – all magnets attracting international and domestic buyers. On the global stage, Dubai is a high-yielding city, with returns of 4.8%, as prime yields nudged up 40 bps, during 2023, in which capital values rose by 17.4% and rents by 8.9%. Another plus for the emirate is that the cost of buying, owning and selling a US$ 2 million property in Dubai is more economical than in Singapore, Hong Kong, London, New York, Tokyo, Paris, Mumbai and other cities. In terms of prime residential rental value growth, Dubai was ranked first ahead of Lisbon, Berlin and Singapore.  Dubai rents are cheaper than other cities including New York, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Singapore, Paris, Geneva and Amsterdam but are more expensive than in Bangkok, Mumbai, Sydney, Madrid, Kuala Lumpur, Beijing and Barcelona.

A Cushman & Wakefield study notes that there is a two-tiered rental market operating in Dubai, with a widening gap between new contracts and lease renewals. Over the past two years, data shows that residential rates rose by 19% – and 27% a year earlier – with apartment and villa sales prices having climbed 68% and 32% since the pandemic, and by 19% and 16% last year. Since their 2014 peak, villa and apartment sales prices are now more than 16% and 6% lower respectively. When it comes to rents, there were 16% and 17% increases noted last year. Betterhomes indicated that apartment and villa rents rose by between 20%-30% and between 10%-20% last year; Cushman & Wakefield reckoned that affordable apartment districts, including Discovery Gardens, Dubailand, Dubai Sports City and Jumeirah Village Circle, saw the sharpest rental increases in the past twelve months due to relatively lower bases, whilst the highest villa increases were in Discovery Gardens, Dubailand, Dubai Sports City and Jumeirah Village Circle. It also noted that 39.4k units, (83:17 – apartments:villas), were handed over last year. That being the case, the number of units at the end of 2023 would be 823k units (official figures for 2022 – 783.6k plus unofficial 2023 figures – 39.4k). With the actual 3.655 million population, at 31 December 2023, this would result in the average occupancy being 4.44 per unit.

The 30 December 2023 blog, ‘Nothing New’ noted:

‘Over the past four years, the average number of new units added to Dubai’s property portfolio every year has been around 42k. At the beginning of every year, the “experts” come out and predict that up to 70k units will be added in the new year. One fact to remember is that by the end of 2024, Dubai’s population will have grown by some 150k and basing that the average unit will house 4.3 persons, that will account for almost 35k new units required. So even if 50k new units hit the market in 2024, there will still be a problem with demand outstripping supply. It will only be in 2025 before any sort of equilibrium returns to the market when most of the 2022 launches become reality. During the pandemic there were very few, if any, launches and most will take up to three years from planning to handover’.

January saw the Dubai’s realty sector off to a flying start, with record-breaking sales totalling US$ 9.65 billion, and a great start for another positive year on the back of sustained momentum from 2023. There was a growing demand for off-plan properties, with the upward trend continuing with a marked 27% increase in the month; Property Finder’s data indicates a 17% annual increase in recorded sales transactions with over 11k transactions. Compared to January 2023, last month’s figures showed that there were more then 6k recorded transactions and a a 21% rise in values, to US$ 4.09 billion.

In a recent survey, Property Finder’s data posted that some 58% of interested property buyers were searching for an apartment – the balance 42%, for villas/townhouses. In contrast, 80% of tenants in the rental market were found to be looking for apartments, while 20% were searching for villas/townhouses. Of the total looking for apartments, 62.2% wanted them furnished – with the balance obviously wanting unfurnished. When it came to villas, more people, (57%), were looking for unfurnished units. Those looking for apartments, the preference for studios, 1 B/R and 2 B/R was spread 22%, 36% and 31%. Those who wanted to rent a villa/townhouse, 43% tenants were looking for three-bedroom units and 34% for four bedroom or larger options. When ownership is involved, the spread was 14%, 33% and 36% for those looking for apartments and 40% and 44% for villas/townhouses.

The most popular apartment locations for buyers were Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, and Palm Jumeirah and for villa/townhouse buyers Dubai Hills Estate, Arabian Ranches, Palm Jumeirah, Al Furjan and Damac Hills. Leading areas for rentals were Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay and Deira. Dubai Hills Estate, Al Barsha, Damac Hills 2, Jumeirah and Umm Suqeim were popular when it came to searches to rent villas/townhouses.

Many analysts forecast that 2024 will see a further reduction in rents but still in double-digit territory. The rental increases, for both apartments and villas, in the so-called new districts of Dubai, will be more moderate than rises in the more established, and more central, Dubai locations. As rents are controlled by the Real Estate Regulatory Agency’s rental calculator, many tenants are opting to stay put because rental increases during renewals are much lower compared to signing new leases. 

Citi Developers has announced that its first foray in the Dubai property, Aveline Residences, is already 70% booked. The US$ 82 million, twenty-one storey project, located in Jumeirah Village Circle, is slated for a Q2 2026 completion. It comprises two hundred and sixty-three apartments, with a payment plan – 10% for the booking fee, 40% during construction and 50% upon handover. Starting prices are from US$ 161k, US$ 270k, US$ 368k and US$ 479k for studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartments.

A new entrant to the Dubai residential sector is Portgual’s Swank Development who plan a US$ 82 million investment for ultra-luxury villas in Mohammed bin Rashid City in Meydan. Further details will be released soon but the project is slated for a Q1 2026 completion. The developer chose Dubai to launch operations due to its thriving economy, advanced infrastructure, and safety and security, distinguishing it from other regional cities. The company added that “it is the government’s ease of regulations and taxation and lifestyle that is attracting developers from Europe. Dubai has always shone because of lifestyle, safety and security infrastructure.” The Portuguese company is also in talks with master developers to develop more projects in the city. Swank follows in the footsteps of India’s Skyline Builders, Switzerland-based DHG Properties, and European developer Revolution, who have already taken their first steps into the local mature property market.

The Dubai Land Department achieved 1.6 million transactions from various real estate activities, 16.9% higher on the year. The value of real estate exceeded US$ 172.75 billion – 20% higher on the year. It noted that Gulf investors accounted for 10.4k investments, valued at US$ 8.38 billion, Arab investors – 13.2k investments, valued at US$ 7.96 billion and foreign investors, 90.8k buying into 122.9k investments, valued at US$ 75.28 billion. During 2023, real estate investments were 55% higher at US$ 112.26 billion, along with 157.8k investments, including 71.0k new investors – 20% higher; the percentage of non-resident investors rose to constitute 42%of the total new investors. Last year, more women were involved in the real estate sector, with the number reaching 38.1k, valued at US$ 24.66 billion, across 46.7k investments – growths of 53.9%, 42.5% and 39.8% respectively.

Mohamed Alabbar has seemingly confirmed that the cable-tied tower, designed by the Spanish-Swiss architect Santago Calatrava, that was due to be one hundred metres taller than Burj Khalifa, was being redesigned. Emaar Properties’ founder said the tower being built at Dubai Creek Harbour will be a smaller, more elegant structure than previously planned; he also added that the new design had been approved and construction had started on the tower, which will not be as tall as Burj Khalifa. He described the new tower, the centrepiece of the six square kilometre project, as an elegant version of the famous building.

As expected, Dubai posted its best-ever year, in 2023, as international tourist number jumped by 19.4% to 17.15 million, amid the continued expansion of its economy; it surpassed 2019’s then record number of 16.73 million. Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Dubai’s Crown Prince, stated that “with several indicators outperforming pre-pandemic levels, this year’s results mark Dubai out as a vibrant focal point of growth in the global tourism landscape.”

65% of the incoming tourists came from three regions – GCC/Mena, western Europe and South Asia, with totals of 28%, 19% and 18%. Average hotel occupancy rose 1.5% to 77.4% last year, and also exceeded the pre-pandemic level of 75.3% reported in 2019. Supply of hotel rooms in 2023 was 18% higher than in 2019, with occupied room nights climbing 11% to a record high of 41.70 million – and a marked 30% rise from the pre-pandemic figures. The average daily rates (ADR), at US$ 146, was similar to the previous year, while RevPar (revenue per available room), climbed 6% to US$ 113. The length of stay was 3.8 nights, a 10% increase from 2019 levels. Dubai’s hotel inventory topped reached 150.3k rooms with 821 establishments, compared to 146.5k rooms during the previous year across 804 establishments.

January saw Dubai’s economy continue in growth albeit at a slower pace with the S&P Global PMI dipping 1.1 to 56.6 on the month, with demand remaining strong and rising new orders and purchasing helping maintain its momentum. With the index still higher than the long-run average, it pointed to a continuing improvement in operating conditions in the emirate. However, the survey showed that there were signs of increasing competition leading to more discounting which inevitably results in tighter margins. It seems that the Red Sea crisis is becoming a growing risk to Dubai, as companies are beginning to witness shipment delays which will result into longer wait times, higher costs and capacity constraints.

According to a recent study by global HR platform Deel, the UAE is ranked as the most popular country in the world for ‘international talent seeking employment visas’. Using data from 300k work contracts, across one hundred and sixty countries, it concluded that the UAE topped the rankings, ahead of the Netherlands, France, the UK and Singapore. It noted that France, India, Turkey and the UK were the leading source markets and that the most sought-after roles were for management consultants, content managers, software engineers, influencer marketing managers and strategy directors. The leading industries hiring international workers to the UAE included financial services, information technology/services, computer software, management consulting, and marketing/advertising. It noted that “the UAE’s diverse and multicultural workforce is its greatest asset. By attracting and retaining international talent, the country is positioning itself for continued economic growth and success in the global marketplace.” The Deel report noted that ‘UAE talent’ is highly sought-after by companies in the US, UK, Australia and Canada, particularly in sectors such as computer software, IT services, financial services, marketing/advertising, and software development. Based on the number of international workers hired, the top five cities for global workers were London, Toronto, San Francisco, Buenos Aires and Madrid.

In its 2024 ‘Salary Guide’ report, Robert Half indicated that the country is moving towards being an employers’ market because of the lifestyle and economic problems in other countries. It also noted the influx of talent and greater competition for roles mean candidates are willing to accept lower remuneration to gain a foothold in the ME, which brings down the overall market rate and restricts salary growth. A survey by LinkedIn found that 82% of professionals, in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, preferred working in the GCC region rather than moving to Europe or the US. The three main drivers behind this conclusion were the region’s standard of living made it a preferred destination, (46%), attractive lifestyle (35%) and opportunities for professional growth (31%). The five most sought-after positions in the UAE were as management consultant, content manager, software engineer, influencer marketing manager and strategy director. On a global scale, Europe, the MEA region and Asia-Pacific were ranked the fastest-growing hiring locations. Also on a worldwide basis, teaching, sales, software engineering and content management saw the biggest pay rises and, at the other end of the scale, the biggest declines in wages were in customer support, recruiting, accountancy and marketing,

Standard & Poors posted that, (driven by lower provisioning requirements, improved liquidity levels – as deposit growth outpaced new loan growth – and higher interest margins), UAE banks reported exceptional profits for the full year 2023. The report also noted that the outlook for the banks in the UAE is stable, estimating that increased oil production and support from non-oil sectors, (specifically from the hospitality, real estate, and financial services sectors), will drive economic growth this year. The hike in net profit was also supported by growth in non-interest income, reflecting increased business activity and commercial activity. The agency believes that interest rates will remain higher for longer, which will support banks’ net interest margins. Along with largely stable cost of risk, UAE banks’ profitability is likely to remain robust. The agency also expects retail lending to remain strong as banks continue to expand in this profitable segment. The agency said that UAE banks maintain high liquidity, with the average cash and money market instruments of the ten largest banks reaching 21.8% at the end of last year. Strong core customer deposit bases – which grew by about 12% last year – and limited reliance on external funding contribute to the funding structures of UAE banks. S&P noted that local banks remain in a strong position in terms of net foreign assets, which rose to 27.9% of system-wide domestic loans as of 30 November 2023, from 9.65% at the end of 2021.

Emirates’ supremo, Tim Clark, is the latest senior airline executive to criticise Boeing noting that is in the “last chance saloon”, adding he had seen a “progressive decline” in its performance. He noted that “they have got to instil this safety culture which is second to none. They’ve got to get their manufacturing processes under review so there are no corners cut etc.”  The Dubai carrier is one of the plane maker’s major customers and is now set to send its engineers to monitor Boeing’s production lines of the 777 and its supplier Spirit AeroSystems. Last November, it placed an order for ninety-five wide-body Boeing 777 and 787 jets, used for long-haul flights, valued at US$ 52.0 billion, at list prices.

Emirates has been appointed as the official Global Airline Partner of the NBA, (National Basketball Association), in a multiyear global marketing partnership. The agreement sees the Dubai carrier become the inaugural title partner of the NBA Cup, previously named the NBA In-Season Tournament, as well as the first-ever referee jersey patch partner of the NBA. Group chairman, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed, commented that ““the NBA is a valuable addition to our sponsorship portfolio, as it allows us to connect with a vast global fanbase, including in the US, where the game is an integral part of the country’s sports culture.”

Driven by a 6.1% hike in housing/water/electricity/gas group. Dubai’s December CPI index stood at 3.3%, and according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Inflation Update, among the six GCC countries, only Dubai reported an increase in its average annual inflation rate. Overall, only three out of Dubai’s thirteen CPI subgroups recorded year-on-year decreases during the month, with food/beverages group, (the third largest weighted group), recording a 4.2%, compared to a decline of 4.5% during December 2022. On the other hand, the transport subgroup (second largest weighted group) posted a 5.8% decline, compared to 2.9% decrease in 2022. According to the IMF, the primary factors that allowed the GCC regional countries to control their inflation so well are among other things, the combination of subsidies in energy sector, the prevalence of administered prices on basic food items and food security strategies, and the wider continuing economic diversification efforts.

By the end of 2023, the number of EVs in Dubai grew 71.7%, on the year, to 25.9k, with Dewa, advancing the emirate’s green mobility plans, commenting that “we will continue to foster the use of EVs through continuous development of the green charging stations using technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” and that “Dewa has launched several features to facilitate the charging of EVs on its public charging network, reduce charging time, enhance the infrastructure and provide better access to charging facilities across Dubai.” Dewa has invested in a network of three hundred and eighty-two public charging stations and confirmed that their use rose 59%, compared to 2022 returns.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid announced that Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade had already reached its AED 2 trillion ($545 billion) five-year target – a year ahead of schedule. The Dubai Ruler commented that “in 2020, before the Covid crisis, we announced from the Dubai Council a target for Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade to reach AED 2 trillion by 2025. Then the Covid crisis came, and the team informed me of the impossibility of achieving the goal as a result of this crisis that struck the global trade movement. Life experiences taught me that crises are the best time to develop and think outside the ordinary.” In the first nine months of 2023, Dubai’s economy rose 3.3%, with two main drivers being growth in the tourism and transportation sectors. S&P Global Ratings reckons that UAE’s real GDP last year hit 3.4%, and could hit 5.3% in 2024.

A report by Henley & Partners ranks Dubai as the third wealthiest city among the newly expanded Brics bloc which analyses private wealth and global investment migration trends. The total investable wealth, currently held in the Brics bloc, amounts to US$ 45 trillion and the number of millionaires is currently at 1.6 million and expected to increase by 85% over the next ten years; the figure also includes 4,716 centi-millionaires and five hundred and forty-nine billionaires.

The top ten cities, with the number of millionaires are:

1. Beijing             125.6k
2. Shanghai         123.4k
3. Dubai                72.5k
4. Mumbai            58.8k
5. Shenzhen          50.3k
6. Hangzhou         31.6k
7. New Delhi         31.0k
8. Moscow            30.3k
9. Guangzhou:      34.5k
10. Abu Dhabi        22.7k

Among Dubai’s rich are two hundred and twelve centi-millionaires, (people with a net worth of US$ 100 million plus) and fifteen billionaires. It is expected that UAE numbers will have grown by 4.8k last year, which would only be surpassed by Australia’s 5.2k new millionaires. It is estimated that the country’s millionaire population has grown 77% over the last ten years to 116.5k. Although it has only 4.1k high-net-worth individuals, Sharjah’s rich are growing at a faster rate than Dubai, with the number forecast to grow 129% to 9.0k within the next ten years.

Smart and Secure Insurance Agent a company operating in the country, has seen its licence and registration revoked by the UAE Central Bank. The regulator indicated that this action was taken because of Smart and Secure’s weak compliance framework and failure to meet regulatory obligations. The CBUAE, through its supervisory and regulatory mandates, works to ensure that all companies and professionals abide by the UAE laws, regulations and standards to safeguard the transparency and integrity of the insurance industry and the UAE’s financial system.

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise posted a 16% hike in 2023 to US$ 1.35 billion, with net profit coming in at US$ 351 million. Over the year, DAE acquired twenty and sold thirty aircraft, whilst of the acquired units, ten were owned and ten managed with those sold being twenty-two managed and eight managed. Having booked over 1.5-million-man hours and performed three hundred and sixteen checks, DAE signed some one hundred and fifty lease agreements, extensions and amendments, of which one hundred and fourteen owned and thirty-six non-managed. The company announced a partnership with Boeing to become the first facility in the ME to be authorised to complete Boeing 737-800BCF conversions.

DEWA’s Q4 revenue rose 5.5% to US$ 1.93 billion, but for the full-year 2023, there was a 7.0% hike to US$ 795 billion; there was a 1.4% decline in net profit to US$ 2.15 billion, with Q4 showing a 14.6% rise to US$ 490 million, driven by higher demand for electricity, water and cooling services amid continued growth momentum in the emirate. In Q4, total power generation topped 13.4 terawatt-hours – 8% higher compared to Q4 in 2022; for the year, the figure of 56.5 terawatt-hours, up 6.3%. A sign of the population growing was that the utility added 11.2k new customers in Q4, bringing its total customer base to 1.2 million. Clean power accounted for 11 per cent of the total electricity generated in 2023.

Emaar Properties posted a 70% surge in annual net profit to US$ 3.2 billion on the back of increased sales, as the UAE property market continues to move higher even after three years of growth. Dubai’s largest property developer saw revenue 7.0% higher to US$ 7.27 billion, as property sales jumped 15% to US$ 10.98 billion, with a US$ 19.56 billion backlog.

Its majority-owned subsidiary, Emaar Development, specialising in the build-to-sell property development business, registered a 21% annual hike property sales of US$ 10.19 billion. revenue was at US$ 3.24 billion, with ebitda climbing 89% to US$ 2.18 billion. The Dubai property market surged (again) in 2023, by 20% to US$ 17.28 billion and 36%, to 166.4k – by value and the number of transactions respectively.

Emaar achieved 63 per cent annual growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) that stood at Dh16 billion during 2023.

With robust growth in tenant sales, Emaar’s shopping mall/retail/commercial leasing operations, posted a 21% rise in 2023 revenue to US$ 1.58 billion. Its mall assets achieved an average occupancy of 97%. 12% of Emaar’s revenue comes from its international real estate operations, which posted property sales of US$ 790 million with revenue totalling US$ 845 million, mainly attributable to operations in Egypt and India, with the latter posting aa four-fold increase in property sales driven by new launches. Emaar’s hospitality/leisure/entertainment divisions generated 20% more revenue to US$ 926 million, driven by the improvement in the emirate’s tourism sector and robust domestic spending. Emaar’s recurring revenue from malls, hospitality, leisure, entertainment, and commercial leasing rose more than 26%, on the year, to US$ 2.51 billion. Revenue from this portfolio contributed over 34% of the company’s total revenue.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 05 February, 162 points (4.2%) higher the previous fortnight, shed 45 points (1.1%) to close the trading week on 4,229 by Friday 09 February 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 lower the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.6, closing on US$ 2.10 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.92, US$ 1.74, and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 4.71, US$ 1.74 and US$ 0.36. On 09 February, trading was at 87 million shares, with a value of US$ 71 million, compared to 63 million shares, with a value of US$ 47 million, on 02 February 2024.

By Friday, 09 February 2024, Brent, US$ 5.29 lower (6.4%) the previous week, gained US$ 4.99 (6.5%) to close on US$ 77.20. Gold, US$ 39 (1.9%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 16 (0.8%) to trade at US$ 2,039 on 09 February.

Data from Chainalysis reported that payments from crypto-related ransom attacks nearly doubled to a record US$ 1 billion in 2023.  Scammers targeting institutions such as hospitals, schools and government offices for ransom pocketed US$ 1.1 billion last year, compared with US$ 567 million in 2022. The blockchain analytics firm noted that “an increasing number of new players were attracted by the potential for high profits and lower barriers to entry,” with “big game hunting” has become the dominant strategy over the last few years, with a dominant share of all ransom revenue volume made up of payments of US$ 1 million or more. Hundreds of organisations, including government departments, UK’s telecom regulator and energy giant Shell, have reported cybersecurity breaches involving the MOVEit software tool, which is typically used to transfer large amounts of often sensitive data, including pension information and social security numbers. The only good news seems to be losses stemming from other crypto-related crimes, such as scamming and hacking, fell in 2023.

In the twelve months to 31 January 2024, China’s vehicle sales surged 47.9%, year on year, to nearly 2.44 million units, and that the country’s vehicle output last month increased by 51.2% year on year to 2.41 million units. Passenger car output and sales returned rude returns – up 49.1% to 2.08 million and 44.0% to 2.12 million vehicles, whilst commercial vehicle output and sales posted even better numbers – by 66.2%, on the year, to 327k units, and soaring 79.6% to 324k units. January also saw even higher increases last month posted by the new energy vehicle industry, with production and sales – up 85.3% to 787k and 78.8% to 729k. In relation to all electric vehicle production and sales growth levels were 63.9% to 489k and by 55.1% to 445k. Exports also moved higher with January exports 47.4% to the good rising to 443k, with NEV exports by 21.7% to 101k units.

There are reports that Snap is planning to cut 10% of its 5k staff, following the release of its Q4 financials revealing a US$ 368 million loss for the quarter 31 October; there is no definitive news on the future of its UK workforce of 0.5k. Estimates are that the move could cost it between US$ 55 million – US$ 75 million in severance payments “and other charges”. In August 2022, the social media company released 20% of its staff. Snapchat said the move would “reduce hierarchy and promote in-person collaboration”. In contrast, its rival, Meta recently posted a tripling of quarterly profits. It is estimated that, in 2023, the tech sector industry saw a loss of 232k staff, including Meta and Google, all trying to optimise costs to remain profitable.

Even though BP’s 2023 profit almost halved on the year, (US$ 13.8 billion v US$ 27.7 billion), it was still the energy giant’s second highest annual profit in a decade. (Last week Shell also posted lower 2023 profit, at US$ 28.2 billion from US$ 39.9 billion). In Q4, profits were at US$ 3.0 billion, resulting in its share value scooting 5% higher on Tuesday. In H1, BP is planning to return, to shareholders, US$ 1.75 billion of share buybacks, as well as committing US$ 3.5 billion of buybacks.

Tesco has copied its rival Sainsbury’s by leaving the banking sector, with Barclays agreeing to buy the supermarket’s retail banking operations in a deal worth US$ 758 million to the supermarket giant; last month, Sainsbury’s said it was planning a “phased withdrawal” from its banking division in order to focus on its core food business. Barclays is taking over Tesco Bank’s credit cards, loans and savings accounts and has also agreed to market Tesco-branded banking services. It is likely that Tesco’s 2.8k payroll will transfer to Barclays. However, the supermarket has retained some of Tesco Bank’s services, including insurance, ATMs, travel money and gift cards.

Following a December 2023 announcement that Woodside and Santos were in discussions about a possible merger, this week Woodside posted that merger talks with the South Australian energy giant were over. One possible explanation was that the WA’s energy giant is seen as a risk averse entity and was reluctant to proceed any further in what would have seen the creation of an US$ 52.23  billion, (AUD 80 billion) company. Woodside chief executive officer, Meg O’Neill, said the company “continuously assesses a range of organic and inorganic growth opportunities” and it “will only pursue a transaction that is value accretive for its shareholders,” and “we continue to be disciplined in our approach to mergers and acquisitions and capital management to create and deliver value for shareholders,” A combined business would reportedly have had an LNG capacity of sixteen million tonnes a year.

Perceived to be a supporter of Israel is the main driver behind McDonald’s missing a key sales target – its first such quarterly sales miss in four years.  The fast-food retailer is one of several Western companies, including Starbucks and Coca Cola, that have seen boycotts and protests against them by anti-Israeli campaigners. McDonald’s confirmed that the Israel-Gaza conflict had “meaningfully impacted” Q4 performance in some overseas markets, specifically in the ME, Malaysia, Indonesia and France. The fast-food retailer drew criticism after its Israel-based franchise said it had given away thousands of free meals to members of the Israeli military, sparking calls to boycott the brand by those angered by Israel’s military response in Gaza. Most of McDonald’s forty thousand plus stores are run by franchisees, of which about 5% are in the ME. Franchise owners in Muslim-majority countries such as Kuwait, Malaysia and Pakistan have even put out statements distancing themselves from the firm. Its Q4 global sales grew by just under 4% – down from 8.8% in Q3, and below its annual average.

After only eight months in the position, Hafize Gaye Erkan has tendered her resignation as the governor of the Turkish Central Bank; Turkish President Erdogen quickly appointed Fathi Karahan, her deputy governor, as the new supremo, signalling a welcome continuation of the transition to more friendly orthodox economic policies. Erkan commented that she was facing an apparent smear campaign against her and that she was resigning to protect her family, including an infant child. There had been allegations, which she denied, that her father was intimately involved in the central bank’s affairs, despite having no official role at the bank. The lira dipped, 0.5% to 30.489, to the greenback, when the news broke last Friday, with the currency having slumped by about 23% since the governor was appointed last June. During her brief tenure, she had led the about-face in Turkey’s economic policies, which included raising interest rates aggressively, (from 8.5% in June to its current 45.0%) and letting the currency trade more freely in an effort to attract foreign investment. It is expected that the current monetary tightening policy will continue.

The Central Bank of Egypt has raised its overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, the discount rate and the rate of the main operation by 200 bp.

Despite being the chief executive of Singapore’s biggest bank DBS, which posted a 27% hike in 2023 profit to US$ 7.67 billion, Piyuah Gupta has seen his bonus cut by 30% after several damaging disruptions to its digital services. The bank noted that his 2022 pay was US$ 11.5 million and that the cut to Piyush Gupta’s variable pay, (including a cash bonus and deferred shares), amounts to US$ 3.1 million, and that his full 2023 salary will be disclosed next month. The bank said other members of its management team will have their variable pay cut by 21%, while more junior employees will get a one-off bonus to help them with higher living costs.

The Albanese government has announced another round of sanctions designed to strangle the flow of money to Myanmar’s junta, three years after the military seized power in an illegal coup. The new round of sanctions will target banks that support state-owned enterprises, but there is pressure from several groups, including activists, who allege a dozen Australian and Australian-linked mining companies still operate in Myanmar. Anti-junta groups are concerned that Australian companies are propping-up the regime. and the government is being pressed by civil society groups to pull them out. But whilst the Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced that the government would impose targeted sanctions on Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank and Myanmar Investment and Commercial Bank, and would also sanction Asia Sun Group, Asia Sun Trading Co Ltd, and Cargo Link Petroleum, she fell short of further action on the miners. It seems that Australia is still lagging well behind the US and European nations which have imposed deeper and wider-ranging sanctions, with it some way off simply to catch up with the sanctions already imposed by its allies and should urgently sanction junta-controlled mining entities, given the continued Australian involvement in that sector. The CEO of Transparency International Australia, Clancy Moore, commented that “Australia’s lack of sanctions on the state-owned enterprises Mining Enterprise 1 and Mining Enterprise 2 that oversee mining sector and collect revenue for the junta means the door is wide open for the ten Australian-linked mining companies to continue to do business with the corrupt and murderous military regime,” and that “we would expect the Australian Government to follow the lead of the US, EU and Canada in sanctioning these important state-owned enterprises lining the pockets of the corrupt and murderous Myanmar generals.”

In 2023, Australian wine exports were hit by a global trend in people drinking less alcohol and cutting costs, with a fall in both the value and volume of exported wine in the middle of a global oversupply. The immediate hope is that the Chinese drop their tariffs which has had a major impact on the industry. In calendar year 2023, wine exports declined by 2% to US$ 1.24 billion and 3% in volume to 607 million litres. On top of that, only 39.3%, equating to forty-four of the one hundred and twelve destinations that received Australian wine during the year imported more value than they did in 2022. It seems that the market is being impacted on both health and financial reasons – people reducing their discretionary spending and also consumers becoming more conscious of their health. Although markets in Hong Kong and Singapore moved higher, those in Europe and US headed south, whilst the Chinese market continues in the doldrums because of the continuing heavy tariffs.

With inflation falling quicker than expected, (starting 2023 at 7.8% and ending on 4.1%), the Reserve Bank of Australia, at their first meeting of the year, left rates unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. Despite this, the RBA noted that inflation had clearly eased but it was still high at 4.1%, and above the central bank’s target of 2% – 3%, whilst services inflation was only moderating gradually. It forecast that inflation would return to its target range in 2025, and to the midpoint of that range in 2026. However, the global economy is beset with many potential trigger points, including the slowing Chinese economy, conflicts in the Ukraine and Gaza, as well as shipping being disrupted in the Red Sea – all of which have possible impacts on the Australian economy. Add in a local housing shortage, pessimistic consumer confidence, (the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declining 1.3% to 81 last month), jobless rates at an eighteen-month high and soaring cost of living expenses. The conundrum is that the market seems to be pricing in two rate cuts in 2024, but the RBA may have a different agenda, saying it cannot rule out another rate rise, depending on economic data.

As UK mortgage rates continued to head south, Halifax posted that January saw house prices at their highest for twelve months, driven by a slowdown in inflation and a buoyant jobs market. In January, the typical home cost US$ 368k – 2.5% over the past twelve months. Halifax noted that first-time buyers faced average deposits of US$ 68k and warned that while house prices had risen, interest rates still remained high, compared with the historic lows seen in recent years. An interesting fact is that around 65% of new buyers are in joint names. Halifax data is based solely on its own mortgage lending, which excludes cash buyers who account for about a third of all transactions. A typical two-year fixed mortgage rate last July was at 6.86% and has fallen to 5.57`% by the beginning of February, with further rate cuts later in the year.

With housebuilders struggling since the start of 2022, with higher interest rates denting demand, and construction costs rising, Barratt announced it would buy Redrow, in an all-stock deal, valued at US$ 3.16 billion, that would see the new entity known as “Barratt Redrow”. David Thomas, chief executive of Barratt, said despite the “challenging” economic environment, demand for the company’s homes was “strong”, and he expects the new company would build more than 22k homes a year in the medium term. He also added that “since the start of January, we have seen early signs of improvement in both reservation rates and buyer sentiment, helped by expectations of lower interest rates and the introduction of more competitive mortgage rates.”

A year ago, Chinese billionaire banker Bao Fao, went missing and his whereabouts are still unknown despite his firm, China Renaissance Holdings, recently announcing that he had stepped down “for health reasons and to spend more time on his family affairs,” adding that he “has no disagreement with the Board and there is no other matter relating to his resignation that needs to be brought to the attention of the shareholders”. Days after his February 2022 disappearance, the bank said he was cooperating with authorities who were conducting an investigation. Ben Fao is not the first Chinese billionaire to go missing – and he surely will not be the last! In China, Who Wants To Be A Billionaire?

Mind Your Own Business!                                                         02 February 2024

The real estate and properties transactions, totalling 3,677, were valued at US$ 3.13 billion in total during the week ending 02 February 2024. The sum of transactions was 192 plots, sold for US$ 711 million, and 2,699 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.57 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 167 million, the second in Al Merkadh for US$ 40 million and in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 39 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with fifty-one sales, worth US$ 32 million, followed by twenty-seven sales, in Al Hebiah Fifth, for US$ 21 million, and fourteen sales, in Jabal Ali First, valued at US$ 19 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were a villa in Al Mamzer for US$ 50 million, another in Al Wasl, for US$ 18 million, and an apartment in Um Suqaim Third for US$ 15 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 610 million; one hundred and fifty-four properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 232 million.

It is reported that Binghatti Properties is already talking to potential buyers for the sale of Dubai’s most expensive penthouse, priced at US$ 204 million (AED 750 million). Bugatti Residences by Binghatti’s Sky Mansion Penthouse went on sale for a record price in mid-2023. The forty-six-storey ultra-luxury development, Bugatti Residences by Binghatti, features Sky Mansion Penthouses spanning the top 11 floors. These penthouses allow owners to drive their super-luxury vehicles directly to their apartments, as each penthouse occupies an entire floor. To date, the most expensive penthouse, at US$ 136 million (AED 500 million) is the 21.9k sq ft five-bedroom Como Residences penthouse on Palm Jumeirah, whilst last month, the 77.7k sq ft Super Penthouse R1, comprising the top three levels and the rooftop of the Raffles The Palm Dubai Residences, went on the market for US$ 164 million (AED 600 million).

India’s Skyline Builders has announced the launch of Avant Garde Residences in Jumeirah Village Circle – its first foray into the Dubai market; the thirty-five-year-old real estate developer has a legacy of one hundred and fifty-eight projects, in India, with over sixteen million sq ft developed. The project, spanning 300k sq ft, features eighteen residential floors, five podia, and a ground floor, with one hundred and seventy-two apartments, including studios, one and two-bedroom units, as well as three retail shops; starting prices start at US$ 170k.

Even after four years of impressive growth, 2023 hit record levels to reach US$ 124.2 billion – and all indicators point to a better 2024, mainly because demand is expected to outstrip supply. Because of Covid, launches almost dried up and only returned to some form of normality last year, so that new property handover will only start later in the year. On top of that, after a pandemic-driven lull, Dubai’s population is beginning to move higher. Last year, it grew by 100k, and it will be no surprise to see 2024 welcome a further 150k to bring the emirate’s population to 3.805 million. It is a fact that at the beginning of the year, supply lagged demand and whether a 45k increase in residential units will be enough to satisfy the market is problematic, bearing in mind that up to 36k units will be taken by the newcomers.

Under the patronage of Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, a global first for Dubai sees the emirate launching the “Dubai Jet Suit” race, on 28 February 2024 – the first ever sporting contest featuring eight opponents going aerial, without the aid of an aircraft. Competitors will rely on suits equipped with jet engines to navigate a predetermined course. The country will be represented by Ahmed Al Shehhi, with the competition taking place between Dubai Harbour and SkyDive.

In a bid to enhance and support the sector, Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid has launched the ‘Dubai International Growth Initiative for SMEs’; it also aims to accelerate their progress and global expansion. The US$ 136 million fund, developed through a partnership between the Dubai Government and Emirates NBD,  will be used to assist entrepreneurs, who the Crown Prince added “are key contributors to Dubai’s success, and your partnership is vital to achieving the goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33”; he also highlighted that entrepreneurs worldwide who have chosen Dubai as their launchpad, writing that they extend their steadfast support locally and internationally.

On Monday, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid opened the forty-ninth edition of Arab Health, the region’s largest healthcare exhibition. The Minister of Finance for the UAE and First Deputy Ruler of Dubai commented that “by bringing together the world’s foremost healthcare expertise and institutions and fostering an environment for excellence and innovation in the sector, Dubai continues to consolidate its status as a premier healthcare destination.” The three-day event, held at the Dubai World Trade Centre, features over 3.4k exhibitors, more than forty international pavilions and over one hundred and eighty participating countries. Arab Health 2024 has nine product sectors, which include Medical Equipment & Devices, Disposables & Consumer Goods, Orthopaedics & Physiotherapy, Imaging & Diagnostics, Healthcare & General Services, IT Systems & Solutions, Healthcare Infrastructure & Assets, Wellness & Prevention and Healthcare Transformation.

After price falls over the previous three months, the UAE Fuel Price Committee has increased all retail fuel prices, (except for diesel) for February. Eight years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee. In March 2021, prices were amended to reflect the movement of the market once again, as January retail prices all headed south:

The breakdown in fuel price per litre for February is as follows:

• Super 98: US$ 0.768, to US$ 0.785 in January (up by 2.2%)

• Special 95: US$ 0.738, to US$ 0.777 in January (up by 5.2%),

• Diesel: US$ 0.815, from US$ 0.817 in January (down by 0.3%)

• E-plus 91: US$ 0.719, to US$ 0.733 in January (up by 1.9%)

In a bid to enhance its position as a leading player in the sector of global trade, transport and logistics, Emirates Post Group Company has unveiled its new brand identity – 7X. This branding represents the connectivity of the seven emirates to the seven continents and across the seven seas, marking a commitment to enabling a world in motion. This is in line with its five-year strategy shift which prioritises operational excellence, digital transformation, customer-centricity, cultivation of strategic partnerships, and promotion of sustainable growth. 7X is the parent of such entities as Emirates Post, FINTX, and Electronic Documents Centre.

Latest figures from the Ministry of Finance indicate that it expects 2023 non-oil growth to have reached 5.9%, and by 4.7% this year, as the benefits of diversification in the economy, and a marked effort to promote sustainable growth, start to gain traction. Younis Haji Al Khoori, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance, pointed out that the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade hit a record US$ 337.6 million in H1 – a 14.4% rise on the year; foreign direct investment inflows, up 14.4%, touched US$ 22.7 billion in 2022. He expected the country’s overall to grow to a creditable 5.7% this year, despite all the economic headwinds and a global slowdown.

The Central Bank of the UAE has imposed a US$ 327k fine on a local insurance company, following the result of the findings of a regular examination. This showed that the entity had deficiencies in its AML/CFT policies and procedures and was based on Article 14 of the Federal Decree Law No (20) of 2018 on Anti-Money Laundering and Combatting the Finance of Terrorism and Financing of Illegal Organisations. These laws have been introduced to safeguard the transparency and integrity of the insurance sector and the UAE financial system.

In line with the US Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the UAE has maintained the Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility at 5.40 %. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity at fifty bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities.

Greatly assisted by the rude health of the emirate’s economy, Mashreq posted a 107% surge in Q4 profit, to US$ 762 million, on the back of a marked improvement in interest income, 41% higher at US$ 545 million. Dubai’s third-largest lender by assets also registered a 116% surge in insurance, foreign exchange and other income surged 116% year-on-year to US$ 147million. Annual profit also more than doubled to US$ 2.34 billion, as net interest income and income from Islamic financing posted a 69% jump to US$ 2.10 billion. By the end of 2023, the bank’s assets had grown 22.0% to US$ 65.39 billion, with similar increases seen in loans/advances – up 25% to US$ 40.71 billion – and 28.5% in customer deposits to US$ 39.84 billion.

Commercial Bank of Dubai was the latest local bank to return record 2023 profits – 45.2% higher on the year to US$ 722 million – with major contributions from net interest and other operating income, backed by strong loan growth, along with higher market interest rates. Operating profit, with a 31.8% hike, stood at US$ 1.01 billion, with operating expenses at US$ 335 million, and net impairment loss 7.0% higher at US$ 289 million. There were increases in gross loans, total assets, net loans/advances and customer deposits – 11.6% at US$ 24.2 billion, 11.0% to US$ 35.1 billion, 11.5% to US$ 24.1 billion and 8.9% to US$ 22.1 billion. The bank proposed a cash dividend of US$ 0.12 per share.

Tecom Group announced a record 2023 US$ 599 million in revenue, (a 10% increase), whilst net profit surged 49% to US$ 300 million. This improvement came about from new and existing customers operating across all six sectors the Group serves, and bullish consumer and business confidence. Ebitda increased by 23% to US$ 463 million, and the Ebitda margin expanded to 76%, compared to 68% a year earlier. Funds from operations stood at US$ 381 million, up 21% on the year, because of improved collections and increased performance of income-generating assets. The occupancy rate for the commercial and industrial portfolio was 89%, registering the third quarter of sequential growth. The lease of industrial lands witnessed a strong demand in 2023, as the occupancy rate rose to 94%. The Board recommended a dividend pay-out of US$ 109 million to the company’s shareholders for H2 2023.

Dubai Financial Market Company posted a 122.4% surge in its 2023 net profit at US$ 90 million, with a US$ 76 million dividend, (equating to 3.5% of the capital) proposed. Revenue was 54.0% higher, at US$ 148 million, with investment returns/other income contributing US$ 53 million and operating income, US$ 94.0 million, operating expenses, at US$ 58 million, were up 3.9%. In Q4, total revenue, at US$ 56 million, was 79.9% higher, whilst the profit came in up 146% at US$ 39 million. Two new entrants to the DFM – Dubai Taxi Company and Al Ansari Financial Services, the bourse’s first family-owned company – raised US$ 537 million last year – as investor demand led to an oversubscribed value of US$ 4.44 billion. Market capitalisation rose 18.2% on the year to US$ 18.75 billion and sector wise, financials, utilities, real estate, industrials and communication services accounted for 41%, 22%, 17%, 15% and 3.4% respectively. During the year, the DFM General Index grew 21.7%, closing on 31 December on 4,063 points.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 29 January, 96 points (2.4%) higher the previous week, gained 66 points (1.6%) to close the trading week on 4,229 by Friday 02 February 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 lower the previous fortnight, was flat, closing on US$ 2.04 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.93, US$ 1.70, and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.92, US$ 1.74 and US$ 0.36. On 02 February, trading was at 63 million shares, with a value of US$ 47 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 127 million, on 26 January 2024.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 and, having closed on 31 January at 4,169, was 106 points (2.6%) higher. Emaar started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, to close the month at US$ 2.02. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the year on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed YTD at US$ 0.68, US$ 4.82, US$ 1.72 and US$ 0.37.  On 31 January, trading was at 203 million shares, with a value of US$ 173 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, on 31 December 2023.

By Friday, 02 February 2024, Brent, US$ 3.93 higher (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 5.29 (6.4%) to close on US$ 77.20. Gold, US$ 38 (2.9%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 39 (1.9%) to trade at US$ 2,055 on 02 February.

Brent started the year on US$ 77.23 and gained US$ 4.14 (5.3%), to close 31 January 2024 on US$ 81.37. Meanwhile, the yellow metal opened 2024 trading at US$ 2,074 and gained US$ 9 (0.4%) to close on US$ 2,083.  

On Tuesday, Japanese transport officials raided Toyota’s Hekinan plant to investigate cheating on engine testing, and, at the same time, the carmaker announced that it had retained its number one status – selling 11.22 million vehicles, up 7.0% on the year, and easily beating Volkswagen’s 9.2 million units. Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda vowed to steer the company out of scandal and to ensure the Japanese car maker “sticks to making good cars.” The latest scandal was revealed by a whistle-blower who claimed that Daihatsu Motors, 100% owned by Toyota, had been cheating on its testing for decades. Two years ago, another Toyota-owned company, lorry-maker Hino Motors said it had systematically falsified emissions data, dating back as far as 2003. No major accidents have been reported in connection with any of the cheating. but production has been halted on some of the models, including the ten models affected by the current cheating. The latest problem affects models including Land Cruiser and Hilux sport utility vehicles sold in Japan, Europe, the ME, Africa and Asia, but not in North America.

Toyota Motor issued “Do Not Drive” advisory covers to urge the owners of 50k old 2003-2004 model year Corollas, 2003-2004 Corolla Matrix, and 2004-2005 RAV4s, with Takata air bag inflators, to get immediate recall repairs because an air bag inflator could explode and potentially kill motorists. More than thirty deaths worldwide, including twenty-six in the US, and hundreds of injuries in various automakers’ vehicles since 2009 are linked to Takata air bag inflators that can explode, unleashing metal shrapnel inside cars and trucks. Furthermore, over the last decade, over sixty-seven million Takata air bag inflators have been recalled in the US by more than twenty automakers, and more than one hundred million inflators worldwide, in the biggest auto safety recall in history. Last July, Stellantis warned 29k 2003 Dodge Ram pick-up drivers to immediately stop driving pending repairs after one person was killed when a Takata air-bag inflator exploded. Earlier, in November 2022, Stellantis urged owners of 276k other older US vehicles to immediately stop driving after three other crash deaths, tied to faulty Takata air bag inflators. Honda has reported seventeen US deaths, and more than two hundred injuries, related to Takata inflator ruptures.

With drone attacks in the Red Sea continuing, it appears that global air freight charges have risen for the first time since 11 December; the latest weekly Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index increased 6.4% in the week ending 29 January to US$ 1,972, with air cargo rates outbound from Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore, moving by 8.8%, 5.9% and 4.1% higher. DHL has indicated that “some companies are already shifting to other modes of transportation, with air freight being the first choice. If the situation in the Red Sea continues to escalate, more companies may choose to go via air.” Another factor for the spike in air cargo rates is the upcoming Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, other shipping companies have decided to use the Cape of Good Hope and the subsequent higher shipping costs and increased fuel burn. IATA points out that air cargo accounts for more than 35% of global trade by value, but less than 1% of world trade by volume. Dubai maybe a beneficiary of this crisis, with some goods possibly going by air to Dubai and then by sea to Europe.

Microsoft posted a 33% surge in its fiscal Q2 2024, ending 31 December, to US$ 21.9 billion, driven by Azure cloud business and robust strong productivity; over the quarter, revenue was 18.0% higher, at US$ 62.0 billion, with its operating income jumping to US$ 27 billion. The company’s last-quarter diluted earnings increased 33% to US$ 2.93 a share. During the quarter, Microsoft also returned US$ 8.4 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. Xbox content and services revenue surged 61%, mainly attributable to the US$ 69 billion acquisition of Activision the gaming company behind Call of Duty, Overwatch and World of Warcraft. The company spent more than US$ 6.8 billion on R&D – about 13% of its total quarterly sales. Its total cash/cash equivalents/short-term investments were 27.2% lower over the fiscal H1 standing at more than US$ 81 billion. There was a 20.0% revenue increase in Microsoft’s intelligent cloud division, which includes Azure public cloud, to US$ 25.9 billion, Last month, the technology company announced the addition of a new Copilot key on the Windows keyboard, in a move aimed at supporting the adoption of AI in its hardware products; it will be available in laptops and personal computers manufactured by Microsoft and its partners.

Declining energy prices in 2023 were the main cause behind Shell’s profit declining 29.3% to US$ 28.2 billion, compared to its biggest ever profit of US$ 39.9 billion in 2022, for which it paid a windfall tax of US$ 225 million. Last year, the energy giant paid US$ 1.39 billion in overall tax in the UK of which US$ 303 million was taxed under the Energy Profits Levy. It also returned US$ 29.05 billion to its shareholders in 2023 and was now increasing its dividend by 4% and beginning a US$ 4.42 billion share buyback programme over the next three months.

In after-day trading yesterday, Amazon’s shares jumped almost 8%, after it had posted higher than expected Q4 net profit to US$ 10.6 billion, as revenue climbed 14.0% to US$ 170 billion – the thirteenth consecutive quarter with more than US$ 100 billion in sales. The company noted that “the fourth quarter was a record-breaking holiday shopping season and closed out a robust 2023 for Amazon.” Its sales guidance for the current quarter is for revenue to hover between US$ 138 billion and US$ 143.5 billion, jumping 8% – 13%, compared with the same period a year earlier; operating income is expected to be between US$ 8 billion and US$ 12 billion, compared with US$ 4.8 billion in Q1 2023. For the 2023 year, its net income stood at US$ 30.4 billion, (compared with a net loss of US$ 2.7 billion in 2022), while its revenueincreasing 12% on the year to US$ 574.8 billion in 2023.

PayPal announced that it plans to slash its payroll by another 2.5k; twelve months earlier, the tech firm went through a similar exercise. It indicated that the decision was made to “right-size” the company “through both direct reductions and the elimination of open roles”.  The digital payments giant – which has been facing rising competition from rivals such as Apple, Zelle and Block – has seen its share value slump 20% over the past twelve months. Last week, the firm launched new AI-driven products as well as a one-click checkout feature. In 2023, more than 260k tech industry jobs were lost, and even in the first month of 2024, almost one hundred tech firms – including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, TikTok and Salesforce – have announced a total of 25k job cuts, with the latest being Block retrenching some 1k.

With major assistance from sales of its iPhone sales, Apple’s net profit rose 13%, in fiscal quarter ending December 2023, to US$ 33.9 billion – 48% higher on the quarter; revenue nudged up 2% to US$ 119.6 billion, the first quarter of increased sales after four consecutive quarters of yearly decline.

Facebook’s parent company, Meta saw Q4 revenue jump 25.0% to US$ 39.1 billion – the third consecutive quarter that the company has reported double-digit revenue growth since Q4 2021; net profit surged by 201% to more than US$ 14.0 billion. On the news, the share value of the tech giant – which owns apps including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other services – closed 15.1% higher at US$ 454.40, which pushed its market cap to US$ 1.01 billion. The company’s earnings per share jumped 201% annually to US$ 5.33., with daily active users increasing by 6.0%, to 2.11 billion. Meta, which employs more than 67k people, expects its March quarter total revenue to be in the range of US$ 34.5 billion to US$ 37 billion.

The world’s fifth richest person, with a net worth of US$ 142 billion, is about to become even wealthier. The chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, could receive an annual pay out of about US$ 700 million a year from Meta’s first-ever dividend, announced for investors. It also noted plans to buy back an additional US$ 50 billion in shares and issue its first quarterly dividend since listing in May 2012.; holding three hundred and fifty million shares, the chief executive would take home about US$ 175 million every quarter.

Calling it “an unfathomable sum” that was unfair to shareholders, a Delaware judge rejected Elon Musk’s record-breaking US$ 56 billion Tesla pay package, which had been approved by its Board. The judge found the share-based compensation was negotiated by directors who appeared beholden to Musk. The Tesla board has been criticised as failing to provide oversight of its combative, headline-making CEO, who has fought regulators and led several other companies at the same time. In typical Musk fashion, the Tesla supremo advised “never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware.”

In sync with many financial institutions seeing a fall in deal-making activity after interest rates rose, Deutsche Bank is the latest lender to reduce its workforce, planning to cut 3.5k, of its 90k global payroll, by the end of 2025. Germany’s largest bank employs around 7k in the UK but no news is currently available about their future. The industry has seen a fall in takeovers and share listings, which has dented revenues for many financial institutions, and this is the main driver in the current round of redundancies. A drop in deal activity has prompted many firms, including some in the City of London and on Wall Street, to cut their head counts. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have shed posts, while Barclays – one of the UK’s largest lenders – cut 5k globally in 2023.

Two of the most integral metals, used in energy transition, are lithium and nickel, and one of the biggest players in this mining sector is Western Australia; both minerals are key components of batteries used in EVs.  Forecasts of huge demand, post pandemic, led to sudden price hikes that ultimately fed a surge in exploration and production. For example, in October 2021, lithium was selling at US$ 384 but at the end of last week was 52.3% lower at US$ 183, with nickel, in March 2022, at US$ 46.5 but slumping by 64.5% to US$ 16.5. Following Economics 101 principles, huge demand for the two metals, driven by nascent industries such as batteries for EVs, pushed their prices higher which in turn resulted in a surge in exploration and production – and new mines. When supply rises to outpace demand, then the inevitable happens, the boom-bust cycle goes against the market – mines are mothballed, miners lose their jobs and investors see their investments heading quickly south. Last week the world’s largest lithium producer, Albemarle, said it would cut jobs and pause expansion at its Bunbury refinery in WA’s south to reduce costs and optimise cash flow. Already this year, WA has seen job losses and mine curtailments for Ravensthorpe and Kimberley’s Panoramic Resource’s nickel operations, along with the suspension of Core Lithium’s mines in the NT. WA billionaire Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals was one of the biggest players to take a hit, announcing it would cease nickel mining in Kambalda, with Nickel West to shut down part of its processing operations nearby.

With most western companies having closed operations in Russia, it is reported that Avon, the fourth biggest global beauty company, with over US$ 10.0 billion in global sales, continues to maintain links in Russia, with the BBC reporting that it is still recruiting new sales agents in the country and continuing production in a huge plant there. With its HQ in the UK, it commenced its Russian business in the nineties and has said that it provides “critical support” for women whose livelihoods depend on their business. At the start of the war, the company announced that it was shopping investment and suspending exports of its beauty items from Russia to other markets, including Ukraine. Earlier, Natura & Co, its parent company, commented that it was only maintaining local operations to support its sales agents who are reliant on their business, and that “we believe restricting their access to products would have an outsize impact on women and children there.” Even now, the BBC has found it is still possible to register as a new sales agent for the firm in Russia, with recruits offered prizes, cash bonuses and even holidays for hitting targets. It seems ironic that its Brazilian parent company’s website expresses concern for “all people impacted by this unacceptable aggression” in Ukraine, whilst Avon still has its Naro-Fominsk plant in the Moscow area, where it produces more than two hundred and twenty types of cosmetics and perfumes, and still claims to be the number one perfume brand in the country.

After a marked slowdown in sales, including the Christmas period, H&M chief executive, Helena Helm has resigned, after four years in the position, to be replaced by Daniel Erver, who having worked for the Swedish chain for eighteen years, will step in to Helena Helmersson’s role; on the news, H&M shares slumped by sone 10%.The retailer, lagging behind  rivals including the likes of Zara and Shein, has 3.9k  stores in seventy-seven countries and has had a UK presence since 1976; it is known for its mid-value fashion, including accessories and sportswear. Some of its stores recently introduced homeware. Business wass impacted as the cost-of-living crisis spiralled out of control, with shoppers spending less on items that are seen as discretionary.

With revenue figures such as a 23.5% slump in half yearly figures to 28 October 2023,Superdry may be planning a major overhaul that could result in significant numbers of store closures and job cuts. On news of these dismal figures, Superdry’s market cap dipped to just US$ 20 million. There are reports that the London-listed clothing retailer, with PwC as advisers, are looking at a possible company voluntary arrangement or a restructuring plan, both of which are insolvency mechanisms enabling businesses to reduce their liabilities to creditors. Inevitably, there would have to be shop closures and payroll cuts but currently, there are no details which of the two hundred and fifteen outlets will be closed and how many of the 2.35k workforce will be affected. Superdry commented that “as a management team, we continue to focus on the delivery of our cost efficiency programme and further opportunities to reduce the fixed cost base of the business, with in excess of GBP 40 million (US$ 51 million) of savings due to be realised within the year.” One other possible option is for the founder, Julian Dunkerton – and 25% shareholder – to take the company private.

It is reported that John Lewis is planning to cut about 10%, (of its 76k payroll), in a bid to reduce costs and return to profitability, following a loss of US$ 297 million, after another deficit a year earlier; The cuts, spread over five years, will include redundancies, and not replacing vacant positions, across its supermarkets, department stores and head office. Every member of staff is considered a Partner, with the company owned by its workers through a trust, and who normally receive a bonus at year end; this was not forthcoming last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2023. At the same time, sixteen department stores and several supermarkets were closed, and thousands of jobs were lost.

The BoE has fined HSBC US$ 73 million for “serious failings” to accurately identify deposits eligible for UK’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which customer deposits are protected up to the value of US$ 108k. The regulator said the problems occurred between 2015 – 2022, relating to depositor protection rules, that requires banks must have systems and controls in place to make sure that financial information is logged correctly. One of HSBC’s subsidiaries – HSBC Bank – was found to have incorrectly marked 99% of its eligible beneficiary deposits as “ineligible” for FSCS protection; it also provided incorrect evidence that its systems satisfied certain requirements of the deposit protection rules. In 2021, HSBC was fined US$ 81 million by the UK’s financial regulator for “unacceptable failings” of its anti-money laundering systems.

One of Australia’s richest men, Andrew Budzinski, faces a class action over allegations that he, and his company, IC Markets, misled thousands of everyday investors who may have collectively lost hundreds of millions of dollars trading in risky contracts for difference financial products. Strangely, CFDs are illegal in countries, such as the US and Singapore, but can be traded, (albeit under strict conditions), in Australia. The class action alleges that, by offering these highly risky and unsuitable financial products to retail investors (before the ASIC restrictions came into force in March 2021), IC Markets engaged in misleading, deceptive and unconscionable conduct. Bu using CFDs, investors are able to trade on how much assets – such as cryptocurrencies, shares and commodities – will increase or decrease in value. Data shows that Budzinski paid himself dividends of US$ 617 million, (AUD 939 million), as his company posted profits of over US$ 657 million (AUD 1 billion), in the three years ending 30 September 2020. There is no doubt that CFDs are highly volatile and have historically been highly leveraged products, exposing investors to rapid losses, with allegations that IC Markets set “the buy and sell price for its CFDs in a way that was not transparent to retail clients”. It also claimed that the company sold “highly leveraged CFDs to retail investors that were complex, highly risky and unsuitable for those investors”, and that it “used language that made new users feel comfortable, such as representations that users could ‘trade with the world’s largest Forex CFD provider’ and ‘trade with the most trusted CFD provider in the world’ and did not contain prominent warnings of the risks of CFDs.”

India’s Tata group and France’s Airbus have signed an agreement to manufacture civilian helicopters together; the two companies already cooperate to make C-295 transport aircraft in the Indian state of Gujarat. It was noted that the production of H125 helicopters “would include significant indigenous and localisation component”, and the aircraft will also be exported to some of India’s neighbouring countries. The actual facility location has yet to be decided but it is expected that deliveries will start in 2026. President Macron, on his fifth visit to India since May 2023, discussed the possibility of French engine maker Safran assisting in manufacturing fighter jet engines in India. Coinciding with Macron’s visit, jet engine maker CFM International also announced an agreement ,with India’s Akasa Air, to purchase more than three hundred of its LEAP-1B engines, to power one hundred and fifty Boeing 737 Max planes.

A Hong Kong court has ordered that the embattled Chinese debt-ridden property giant Evergrande be liquidated, with judge Linda Chan saying “enough is enough” after the property giant failed to come up with a restructuring proposal. The mega giant, with liabilities of over a massive US$ 323 billion, defaulted on its debts two years ago. Little surprise to see its shares slump 20% on the news last Monday. There is every chance that China’s realty problems, which accounts for almost 25% of the country’s economy, will have an impact not only the local, but also the global, economy. The case was brought to court by Hong Kong-based Top Shine Global, in June 2022 but the vast majority of the money it owes is to lenders in mainland China who have limited legal avenues to demand their money. Following the making of a winding up order, the company’s directors will cease to have control, and a provisional liquidator will likely be appointed by the court, Whether the conclusions of this Hong Kong court are recognised on the mainland remains to be seen.

In a bid to tighten a worryingly high sell off of shares, which has seen nearly US$ 6.0 trillion lost since its last peak in 2021, the Chinese government has tightened its financial industry rules.  They include new rules that will limit “short selling”, that the China Securities Regulatory Commission says will create “a fairer market order”. This is but the latest measure that the watchdog has introduced over the past twelve months, most of which have had a minimal impact. The CSRC said that following “a complete suspension of the lending of restricted stocks”, which takes effect today, further limitations on securities lending will be introduced from 18 March. It is no coincidence that last week, the country’s premier Li Qiang asked authorities to take more “forceful” measures to stabilise share prices, as there are concerns that many investors are selling shares because of the real risk that the country’s economy could face a long period of slow economic growth.

A US judge, who has agreed with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in his fight with Disney, rejected a lawsuit that had accused the Republican of organising a campaign of “government retaliation”. He indicated that the actions that Disney opposed were legal and it lacked standing to sue the governor, noting that state legislators had the right to make the changes and the company had failed to prove it faced any imminent harm from the governor. The two sides started feuding after Disney, under pressure from its staff, criticised the Parental Rights in Education Act – dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill by critics – which banned discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity for young students, later expanded the ban to cover all school grades.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current 5.25%-5.00% twenty-three year high but noted that rate cuts are coming – but not yet. In the current economic environment, a rate cut will occur probably before the end of June and in the words of Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, the bank was looking for “greater confidence” that the inflation would continue to fall, and that “we’re wanting to see more data.”  Some analysts will be looking for earlier cuts arguing that the soaring price increases, that pushed the central bank to start raising rates in 2022, have slowed, with the December inflation rate at 3.4%. The conundrum facing the US central bank – and other global entities – is that if they keep rates high borrowing remains more expensive, discouraging people and businesses from taking on debt; if pushed lower too quickly, then credit spending may result in excessive growth and subsequent inflation, reducing purchasing power and undermining the sustainability of any economic expansion.

The Labour Department posted that January saw US employers add 353k jobs, well above initial estimates of 185k; the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a near-historic low of 3.7% and annual wages rose 4.5%. Job gains were made in professional and business services, health care, retail trade and social assistance, with losses noted in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. The robust state of the sector is an indicator for the Federal Reserve, to believe it can achieve its inflation goal without widespread job losses. Furthermore, consumer spending has remained resilient and in Q4, 3.3% growth outperformed the Fed’s expectations.

The British Retail Consortium posted that January shop prices rose at their slowest rate – 2.9%, compared to December’s 4.0% – since May 2022, mainly attributable to discounts and lower prices for milk and tea. On average, food prices are still rising by more than 6% a year, whilst price increases for non-food products, which dipped 1.3%, down from December’s 3.1%. It must be remembered that the current political/economic global environment may point to higher prices in the near future. Interestingly, the BRC posted that some eighty-six million more lunchboxes were taken to work in 2023 as people sought to manage budgets more closely, as well as spending on alcohol fell by more than 50%, compared with December – maybe to the increasing impact of the Dry January movement?

The IMF seems to be disagreeing with Jeremy Hunt “advising the UK against further tax cuts”; it noted that preserving public services and investment implied higher spending than was reflected in the government’s current plans. The Chancellor has hinted that tax cuts could be a big help in boosting growth, with the world body hinting that planned spending cuts for this year were unrealistic. This comes at a time when the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth forecast by 0.4% to 1.6%, and when 2023 figures are expected to be around 0.6% – the second slowest in the G7 major economies, behind Germany. One of the IMF jobs is to advise its members on how to improve their economies – luckily, they seem to be often wrong with many of their forecasts and perhaps should keep away from such forecasts until they put their own house in order. The message from the Chancellor is to Mind Your Own Business!”.

Fool Me Once, Shame on You!                                                            26 January 2024

The real estate and properties transactions, totalling 4.12k, were valued at US$ 3.87 billion in total during the week ending 26 January 2024. The sum of transactions was 312 plots, sold for US$ 804 million, and 2,696 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.59 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Barshaa South Second for US$ 57 million, the second in Saih Shuaib 2 for US$ 28 million and in Saih Aldahal for US$ 27 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with one hundred and thirty-three sales, worth US$ 92 million, followed by forty-nine sales, in Al Hebiah Fifth for US$ 46 million, and twenty sales, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, valued at US$ 136 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were a villa in Nad Al Shiba First for US$ 48 million, and two apartments, both in Palm Jumeirah, for US$ 21 million and the other for US$ 12 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 1.25 billion, with the highest being for land in Trade Centre First, mortgaged for US$ 262 million. One hundred and ninety-five properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 232 million.

Azizi Developments has begun construction of a US$ 1.5 billion mega-tall tower that could become the second tallest building in the world, (to the 828 mt Burj Khalifa), if the authorities approve plans; whatever happens, it will definitely be the second tallest in Dubai. To become the world’s second tallest, it would have to be higher than Malaysia’s 679 mt Merdeka 118 and to be more than the 450 mt high Franck Muller Aeternitas tower, which is currently under construction in Dubai Marina.

Downtown Dubai is the location for Binghatti Properties’ latest launch – the uber-luxury project US$ 1 billion Mercedes-Benz Place Binghatti, launched in partnership with the German luxury carmaker; the sixty-five storey property will comprise one hundred and fifty 1 B/R, 2 B/R and 3 B/R apartments, duplex and triplex apartments, and 5 B/R penthouses, with prices starting at US$ 2.72 million, (AED ten million). The 341 mt project, which  is slated for completion by the end of 2026, will also have a range of restaurants, sports and wellness zones, lounges, non-automotive retail, exhibition spaces, and parking. Each and every unit will come with its own private swimming pool. The duplex will feature six bedrooms, a private gym, and an office among other amenities. The triplex will be based on three floors and will come with a private gym, cinema, spa and other amenities. By the end of the week, its chief executive, Muhammad Binghatti, confirmed that 50% of the project had already been sold.

Alphabeta Properties has introduced a new concept to Dubai’s real estate sector, when it comes to renting out a residential building. The Dubai property development and management company is initiating a unique auction system to select tenants for its M77 apartments and will select its tenants via an invite-only online auction. Comprising seventy-seven apartments and located on Meydan Avenue, it will also include a full-floor gymnasium, a fifty mt Olympic-sized pool and a smart keyless entry system. Rents for the one, two and three B/R apartments range from US$ 29k – US$ 41k, US$ 59k – US$ 71k and US$ 68k – US$ 95k, dependent on size and floor space. Interested candidates are required to register, and those shortlisted will be invited to take part in the auction and also visit the properties in person. The developer has already delivered over US$ 272 million worth of projects in different localities, including Al Barsha, Jumeirah, Al Safa and others. The company has built its portfolio around leasing, and most tenants are based in the affluent rental market segment.

Aqua Properties launched its mixed-used four-tower, The Central Downtown project in Arjan, slated for completion in 2026. The towers will be completed on a 300k sq ft plot — atop a sprawling 150k sq ft shopping mall – and will house 1.17k residential units from studio to 1, 2 and 3 B/R, along with a selection of retail outlets. The project boasts a roof podium featuring a series of indoor and outdoor amenities, as well as a golf simulator, wave pool, jacuzzi and a multipurpose hall. Aqua Properties recently announced plans to launch a series of significant developments in Dubai, valued at US$ 817 million.

Master developer Expo City Dubai has unveiled its latest residential properties, as the city continues to grow, launching Sky Residences – a collection of one-to-three-bedroom apartments, as part of the vibrant Expo Central communities. Sky Residences is one of three distinct clusters of apartments, with prices ranging from US$ 488k, that form Expo Central, each within a few minutes’ walk of the city’s attractions; units will be handed over by Q3 2026. Last year, the triple-tower Mangrove Residences was unveiled, with units selling out fast. Both projects are seen as important steps to make Expo City a sustainable location, as well as the cornerstone of Dubai’s 2040 Dubai Urban Master Plan.

Betterhomes has released data that indicates that Indians, moving from last year’s third place, have replaced Russians as the leading buyers of real estate in Dubai in 2023; UK buyers move down to third place, compared to 2022. Making up the top ten are Egyptians, Lebanese, Italians, Pakistanis, Emiratis, French and Turkish. Last year, there was a marked variance in the increase, in the average sales price of villas, with prices pushed higher because of a shortage of inventory in key locations. There were marked increases seen in JVT (29%), Dubai Hills Estate (29%) and Arabian Ranches (25%) which pale into insignificance when villa prices on Palm Jumeirah were up 74%; on the flip side, Jumeirah Golf Estates posted a marginal 1% decrease. Average apartment prices ranged from 8% – 20%, with three of the better performers being JGE, Dubai Hills Estate and Downtown Dubai with increases of 21%, 21% and 17%.

Bayut data confirms what many others already know – that the bull market in the Dubai property market continued in 2023, helped by factors such as a record influx of local and international investors attracted taking advantage of the “unprecedented boom,” wanting to own property in this surging market. It pointed to a notable uptick in sales prices for apartments and villas across prime neighbourhoods in Dubai, registering surges of between 4% and 21% last year. CBRE note a 42% rise in rents since January 2020, and property prices increasing by approximately 33%, with villa rents having followed a similar trend, averaging an annual US$ 88.4k, with an annual 19.2% increase in November.

Bayut also noted that in 2023 a total of 132.6k property sale transactions, amounted to a total value of US$ 111.66 billion. CBRE said there had been a 42% rise in rents since January 2020, with property prices increasing by approximately 33%; villa rents followed a similar trend, averaging an annual US$ 88.4k, with a 19.2% increase in November. There is no doubt that Dubai’s property has bounced back strongly from the pandemic-induced slowdown, helped by government initiatives such as residency permits for retirees and remote workers. Last year, the Dubai real estate market continued to break records, with residential sales transactions 38.1% higher at 120.7k. This growth came predominantly from apartment sales, which increased by 49% to 94.2k.

The most popular locations in the affordable property segment, for potential investors and home buyers, were in International City, Dubailand Residence Complex and Damac Hills 2; in the mid-range budget – Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Al Furjan and The Springs – and for luxury property – Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Arabian Ranches and Dubai Hills Estate. The average transaction prices for affordable villas have generally decreased by 10% to 26%, with the exception of Damac Hills 2, which recorded a minor increase of 0.54%. In the mid-tier property segment, the average sales transaction prices for apartments have generally increased by up to 3.0%, although Jumeirah Lake Towers saw transactional sale prices fall by 0.77%. Sought-after areas with mid-tier villas have reported 15% – 21% increases in average transaction sales price, whilst in the luxury sector, transactional prices have been between 3.0% and 17%.

The study indicated that, based on Return on Investment, DIP, Liwan and Discovery Gardens returned the best returns, with yields of over 11% in the apartment sector. In the mid-tier segment, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai Sports City and Motor City returned the best rental yields of up to 9.0%, whilst in the luxury apartment segment, areas like Al Sufouh, Green Community and Jumeirah Golf Estates have seen returns of up to 10%. When it comes to villas, in the budget sector, Al Rashidiya sees RoI surpassing 9.0%, with areas such as International City and Jebel Ali posting ROI percentages of over 8.0%. For mid-tier villas, JVC, Town Square and Reem have recorded projected ROIs of between 6.0% to 8.0%. Al Barari is the stand-out performer in the luxury villa category, with an ROI of over 8.0%.

Data from aviation consultancy OAG confirmed that Dubai International has surpassed Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International to become the busiest global airport; it recorded five million seats in January 2024 – 0.3 million higher than ATL, which saw its capacity decrease by 8% on the month. Last year, DXB registered 56.5 million seats – compared to 2022’s 53.98 million and pre-pandemic’s 45.27 million. Calculations used to classify the busiest global airports are based on total capacity (domestic and international), and for the top ten busiest international airports only using international seats. The other eight airports to make the top ten busiest globally include Tokyo International (Haneda), Guangzhou, London Heathrow, Dallas/Fort Worth, Shanghai Pudong, Denver International, Istanbul and Beijing Capital International.

Last year, the Mohammed bin Rashid Aerospace Hub at Dubai South posted a record annual 8% hike in private jet movements to 16.7k in 2023, with some drivers including the hosting of the Dubai Airshow, COP28, and the soft opening of the new ExecuJet FBO and hangar. MBRAH is the region’s busiest airport for international business aviation movements in the ME. During the year, there were several agreements with new partners seeking to set up their facilities across different zones to provide different MRO services.

According to Dubai Business Events, last year, the emirate extended its status as a hub for international business events, posting a record three hundred and forty-nine bids to host major conferences, meetings and programmes – 49% higher than recorded in 2022, and up 18.5% than the then 2019 pre-pandemic record number of two hundred and ninety-five. Some of these have already taken place, with others to take place in the future, and it is estimated that they will attract more than 191k international delegates.

This week saw the third 2024, two-day edition of World of Coffee, opened by Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, and featuring 1.65k local, regional, and global brands and companies. This year, space was expanded 50%, with fifty-one countries participating in its activities. The minister commended the event organisation’s efficiency and praised the hard work of the teams involved; he visited the Roasters Village, Cupping Room, and Brew Bar pavilions. According to Data Bridge Market Research, the value of the coffee and Espresso drinks market in the MENA region is expected to reach around US$ 1.33 billion by 2030, on the back of an anticipated Compound Annual Growth Rate of 2.6%.

One Dubai family was duped by responding to a call from Apollo Times office, advising that a free gift had been won but they would have to attend the agency’s office in Karama. On arrival, the family were exposed to a time-share scam, with an all-expenses paid trip to the US for eight family members, priced at US$ 10.9k if they signed up for the platinum package. Late last year, a couple paid US$ 7.6k for a gold membership, with the promise of a world tour. Last Saturday, numerous other UAE residents visited Apollo’s office seeking answers about trips that never materialised but were shocked to find the company had shut down, and its owners and staff had disappeared. Trips to all over the world, including Europe, Australia, US and Singapore, as well as to Umrah, had been promised. Victims said that each time they tried to book a trip, they were told the slots were unavailable and that they had to wait. Excuses ranged from the unavailability of hotels to a lack of advance notice, and the only “prizes” that were delivered a dhow cruise dinner and a stay at a three-star hotel in Fujairah.

Last month, Sharjah-based Royal Palm closed its doors abruptly after employing a similar modus operandi to defraud numerous residents. In February 2023, Royal Regis Tours and Travels shut down, leaving hundreds counting their losses. The company had sold over half a million dirhams worth of holiday packages that never materialised. Prior to this, Arabian Times Travel & Tourism LLC (Arabian TTT) defrauded approximately two hundred people in a similar fashion. Unfortunately, Apollo is the latest – but definitely not the last – fraudulent exercise emanating from a travel agency to scam Dubai residents.

According to the Dubai Media Office, in the first nine months of 2023, the Dubai economy expanded 3.3%, driven by growth in the emirate’s tourism and transportation sectors. Data indicates that the emirate’s accommodation and food services industry recorded 11.1% growth, while the transportation and storage services sector surged by 10.9%. HH Sheikh Mohammed posted that “it is also a reflection of Dubai’s favourable economic climate, robust world-class infrastructure, pro-business regulations and deep talent pool which together consistently draw in a diverse array of investors and entrepreneurs from all corners of the globe.”

In H1 2023, Dubai’s GDP expanded by an annual 3.2% to US$ 60.9 billion. In the first nine months of the year, the transport/storage sector, (which includes land, sea and air transport and logistics), was a major contributor accounting for 13.1% of the emirate’s GDP, equating to US$ 116.9 billion. Dubai’s information/communication technology industry grew 4.4% annually to US$ 4.09 billion. The accommodation/food services sector accounted for 3.4%, (equating to US$ 3.02 billion), of Dubai’s economy. Helal Al Marri, director general of Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism, commented that “our focus is not only on maintaining the current momentum but also on further strengthening an environment that enables businesses to thrive,” with the aim to increase the size of the economy to US$ 8.72 billion, under the government’s D33 agenda. It also targets to make Dubai a global digital economy leader, and the fastest growing and most attractive global business centre, a centre for sustainability and economic diversification, and an incubator and enabler of talented citizens.

Established in March 2022, Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority is the competent entity in charge of regulating, supervising, and overseeing VAs and VA Activities in all zones within the emirate, with the exception of the DIFC. VARA has two roles – protecting investors and establishing international standards for Virtual Asset industry governance and supporting the vision for a borderless economy. Last year, it worked hard to establish Dubai as the leading, responsible hub for regulated VA, awarding nineteen regulated VASP licences – of which eleven are already operational. A further seventy-two Initial Approvals have been issued to new entrants to the Dubai market that have already commenced the licensing process.

Emirates NBD posted a 3.0% rise in Q4 profit, to US$ 1.09 billion, attributable to the continuing strength of the local, and wider Mena region, economies. Dubai’s biggest lender by assets saw total quarterly income increase by 5.0% annually to US$ 2.81 billion, driven by a 2.0% year-on-year rise in the bank’s net interest income to US$ 2.13 billion, with non-funded Q4 income surging by 18.0% to US$ 681 million. The bank’s chairman, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed, noted the rise in quarterly net profit reflects “a healthy regional economy and the success of the group’s diversified business model”. Annual returns saw its net income rise 65.0%, to a record US$ 5.86 billion, attributable to factors such as asset growth, a stable low-cost funding base, increased transaction volumes and substantial impaired loan recoveries, (with provisions 33.0% lower at US$ 940 million). Total income jumped 32.0% in December to US$ 11.72 billion, driven by “excellent deposit mix, solid loan growth and strong fee and commission growth across all business segments”. Other positive indicators include a marked improvement credit quality, with the impaired loan ratio improving to 4.6%, (its lowest level since 2009), loans growing 5% to US$ 131.06 billion, customer deposits 16% higher at US$ 159.04 billion and total assets up 16% to US$ 231.15 billion. The bank’s Board proposed a US$ 0.027 dividend, in addition to a special US$ 0.005 dividend to celebrate the bank’s sixtieth anniversary; this equates to a doubling of the shareholders’ payment on the year.

The country’s biggest Sharia-compliant lender by assets posted a 24.1% jump in 2023’s fiscal net profit, to US$ 6.79 billion profit, attributable to rising non-funded income and lower impairment charges, (down 34.0% to US$ 354 million). Revenue from Islamic financing and investing transactions surged nearly 46.7% to US$ 4.69 billion, with income from properties held for development and sales jumping 72.3% to almost US$ 65 million. Commissions, fees and foreign exchange income also moved higher by more than 12% to US$ 488 million. Customer deposits increased 12.0% to US$ 60.49 billion, with current and saving accounts comprising 37% of the total deposit base. DIB’s net financing and sukuk investments rose 12.0% to US$ 73.02 billion last year, with its balance sheet up 9.0%.

Deyaar’s 2023 net profit, tripled for the 12 months to the end of December, to US$ 120 million and its net operating profit came in 95% higher at US$ 77 million, as total assets expanded by 6.5% to US$ 1.78 billion. Revenue was 56% higher to US$ 354 million, mainly due to the very healthy state of Dubai’s property sector, and a jump in “property development revenue of US$ 112 million from the sale of properties”, along with a 15% rise in revenue from other businesses. Mar Casa, Deyaar’s luxury seafront residential destination at Dubai Maritime City, valued at US$ 302 million, and launched in March 2023, was sold out in record time. Other projects handed over last year were the Mesk and Noor Residential communities, with its flagship project. Its flagship project Midtown also introduced its final residential community, Jannat.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 22 January, 37 points (0.9%) lower the previous week, gained 96 points (2.4%) to close the trading week on 4,163 by Friday 26 January 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 lower the previous week, was flat, closing on US$ 2.04 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.69, US$ 4.75, US$ 1.58, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.93, US$ 1.70 and US$ 0.37. On 26 January, trading was at 63 million shares, with a value of US$ 47 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 127 million, on 19 January 2024.

By Friday, 26 January 2024, Brent, US$ 0.95 lower (1.2%) the previous three weeks, gained US$ 3.93 (5.0%) to close on US$ 82.49. Gold, US$ 22 (1.1%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 16 (0.8%) to trade at US$ 2,016 on 26 January 2024.   82.49

Despite a Q4 dip in revenue, Apple’s net profit jumped 10.7% on the year, and this week it surpassed Amazon to become the world’s most valuable brand, valued at US$ 516.6 billion – a 74% increase from last year; this came despite the tech firm seeing its prime product iPhone’s volume share flattening. Brand Finance rated Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Samsung well behind the leader with brand values of US$ 340.4 billion, US$ 333.4 billion, US$ 308.9 billion and US$ 99.4 billion respectively. In the region, the usual suspects – Aramco and Adnoc – filled the first two places, with the world’s biggest oil producing company posting an 8.0% decline in value to US$ 41.6 billion and Abu Dhabi petro giant growing its value by 7.0% to US$ 15.2 billion and climbing ten places on the global ladder to one hundred and twenty-eighth. Saudi Telecom Company and etisalat by e& both posted 12.0% gains on the year to US$ 13.9 billion and US$ 11.7 billion.

On Wednesday, Microsoft returned to its top position, (albeit temporarily), with its shares gaining nearly 9.2% since 01 January, and a massive 67.3% over the past twelve months; its market cap topped the US$ 3 trillion level to touch US$ 404.71 per share. The main driver seems to be the company’s strategic investments in AI under the transformative leadership of Satya Nadella.  Earlier this month, the Redmond, Washington-headquartered technology company announced the addition of a new Copilot key on the Windows keyboard, in a move aimed at supporting the adoption of AI in its hardware products. Morgan Stanley has elevated their price target to US$ 450, from US$ 415, and said they “remain confident in upside to our above consensus estimates”. However, Apple has since reclaimed the top position, with its market capitalisation reaching about US$ 3.03 trillion

Three months after acquiring Activision-Blizzard, (maker of the Call of Duty and Warcraft series), in a US$ 69.0 billion deal, 1.9k workers, (8.6% of the 22k current workforce), in Microsoft’s gaming division are to be laid off. It seems staff within the Xbox division and at publisher Zenimax – which oversees studios including Bethesda and Arkane – will also be impacted. Last year, there had been a series of redundancy announcements in the video game and tech industries and the first month of 2024 has seen much of the same.

Last May, Terraform Labs’ TerralUSD and Luna tokens lost US$ 40.0 billion of their value which contributed to the so-called “cryptocrash” then; now, the firm has filed for bankruptcy in the US. Its founder, South Korean Do Kwon is currently in jail in Montenegro, after having been found guilty of forging documents, and still faces charges in his home country – the US – and Singapore for defrauding investors by US regulators. In December 2021, its Luna token began trading at US$ 5 and surged over the ensuing four months to top US$ 116 million the following April, but on 09 May 2022, it collapsed, losing 99% of its value in just forty-eight hours to US$ 0.02. This resulted in an estimated US$ 400 billion being wiped from the value of other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Documents show that Terraform still has up to US$ 500 million in assets and that its two shareholders are Do Kwon (92%) and co-founder Hyunsung Shin (8%).

Earlier in the week, there were reports that Boeing will now carry out checks on a second model of its 737 fleet – with the US Federal Aviation Administration grounding more than one hundred and seventy of the 737 Max 9 fleet, after a cabin panel broke away thousands of feet above the ground. The agency said, “as an extra layer of safety”, airlines should also inspect older 737-900ER models, which use the same door design, even though there had been no reported issues of any problems, even though it uses the same style of panel to “plug” an unused door. The FAA is investigating the firm’s manufacturing practices and production lines, including those linked to subcontractor Spirit AeroSystems, which provided the panel. Following the Air Alaska incident earlier in the month, after the watchdog grounded one hundred and seventy-one 737 Max 9 jets, United Airlines, which has seventy-nine such planes, says it expects to lose money in Q1, due to their grounding of the jets; the carrier has been forced to cancel hundreds of flights, as inspections continue to be carried out. The 737-900ER models have carried out eleven million hours of operations without any similar incident to the newer 737 Max 9s, so the FAA did not see the need for the older model to be grounded while the visual inspections are carried out by operators. By the middle week, Alaska Airlines chief says checks on Boeing 737 MAX 9 planes have found ‘many’ loose bolts.

Boeing status, and already tarnished safety reputation, took another blow this week with news that a Delta Air Lines Being 757 passenger plane’s nose wheel fell off and rolled away, as the jet lined up for take-off, at Hartsfield-Jackson Airport in Atlanta. Not surprisingly there was no early comment by the plane maker, but the FAA confirmed that it was investigating the incident. However, on Wednesday, chief executive, Dave Calhoun, said the manufacturer will not operate its planes unless the company is fully confident in their safety.

In Q4, China’s BYD overtook Tesla as the leading global EV maker and now it seems that Elon Musk is keen to introduce a cheaper model to compete with cheaper gasoline-powered cars and a growing number of inexpensive EVs, including those made by Chinese and Vietnamese rivals. There are plans for Tesla to commence production of a new mass compact crossover electric vehicle codenamed “Redwood” in mid-2025; an entry-level US$ 25k vehicle seems to be on the cards. Tesla sent “requests for quotes,” or invitation for bids for the “Redwood” model, to suppliers last year, with an expected weekly production volume of 10k vehicles. At a meeting on Wednesday, Tesla forecast a 21% hike in 2024 deliveries – well down on a long-term 50% target, set by its founder three years ago. posting a 38% surge in deliveries last year, and record sales of 1.8 million cars, Tesla warned that this year will see growth “notably lower”, following which its share value dropped 6% in extended trade in New York. Elon Musk also warned that Chinese rivals “will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world” unless trade barriers are put in place and noted that Tesla had to slash prices repeatedly last year in a bid to keep demand up, so that revenue grew at about half that pace. In its quarterly update to investors, Tesla said it was not expecting another big wave of expansion until it launches a new model. The slowdown in Tesla’s revenue and margins reflects what is happening in the EV market, where, after several years of robust growth, there are signs that sales are sliding, with major car companies scaling back on production. automaker

Vietnamese automaker,VinFast says it plans to spend up to US$ 2 billion to build an electric vehicle factory in India, the world’s third-largest auto market by sales, and has committed to an Initial US$ 500 million in the first phase of construction in Thootukudi, in India’s Tamil Nadu state; it is expected that production will be in the region of an annual 150k units. This will be VinFast’s first foray into India and is part of a global expansion that has included exports of EVs to the United States. It is building a US$ 4 billion EV factory in North Carolina, where production is slated to begin this year, and has invested US$ 400 million to set up production lines in Indonesia. It has also started shipping EVs, made in Vietnam, to neighbouring Laos to serve as a fleet for Green SM, an EV taxi operator that is mostly owned by VinFast’s founder, Pham Nhat Vuong. India is one of the fastest-growing electric vehicle markets in the world, with more than 90% of its 2.3 million electric vehicles  cheaper and more popular than motorbikes, scooters, and rickshaws. The government has launched a US$ 1.3 billion federal plan to encourage EV manufacturing and provide discounts for customers.

A sign that the Indian economy is ticking over nicely is that this week its stock market overtook Hong Kong to become the fourth-biggest equity market globally by market capitalisation; on Tuesday, its market cap stood at US$ 4.33 trillion, compared to its rival’s US$ 4.29 trillion. The US is way ahead of any of its competitors with a market cap of US$ 50.86 trillion, followed by China’s US$ 8.44 trillion and Japan’s US$ 6.36 trillion.

Last week, Apple announced that it would permit app developers to sell products in places other than its own store – but only if they still paid commission. The tech giant decided to take this action following a recent court decision, involving Apple and Fortnite, in which Apple won but it fell foul of a law by not allowing app developers to tell people about other ways of paying, including through links that bypass Apple’s own App Store payment system. Consequently, it charges the biggest developers a 30% fee to use this system, though smaller developers pay around 15%, and 85% of developers do not pay a fee at all. Apple has introduced a new set of rules in the US which will allow people to subscribe to services without using its system, but it will charge developers up to a 27% commission to do so. This has more than annoyed Spotify which called the commission amount “outrageous” and accused Apple of “stopping at nothing” to protect its profits. In the UK, the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill is currently going through parliament that could decide limits that Apple could charge for their services.

In line with several other high profile tech companies, eBay is planning to lay off some 9.0% of its staff, (1k employees), with its chief executive, Jamie Iannone, saying the move was the “most significant and toughest” of all planned changes to ensure “long-term, sustainable growth”. He also said eBay plans to scale back the number of contracts it has within its alternate workforce over the coming months. The move comes as tech companies continue to lay off employees to streamline operations, after a hiring spree during the pandemic. Earlier in the month, Google retrenched hundreds of employees across its hardware, engineering and digital voice assistant units, as “part of efforts to optimise its operational costs”. Before that, the world’s biggest e-commerce company’s live-streaming unit, Twitch, said it was laying off 33% of its workforce (equating to five hundred) calling it a “difficult decision” intended to help the company “build a more sustainable business”, and help it stay for the “long run”. A report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that technology job losses in 2023 were 73% higher, at 168k, compared to 2022.

Arguing that just 8% of customers chose to use a branch exclusively to manage their money, Lloyds confirmed 1.6k staff will lose their jobs but that the banking group’s relationship growth team would be strengthened by the addition of eight hundred and thirty jobs; staff will be available to customers in branches through video meetings or over the phone. Last year, it closed a further forty-five branches – twenty-two Halifax branches, nineteen Lloyds and four Bank of Scotland; staff that are impacted will be offered roles within the bank. Lloyds has been announcing changes to its business since February 2022 and, with this latest move, it will take the total of Lloyds group branch closures to two hundred and seventy-six, leaving five hundred and fifteen Lloyds Bank sites, four hundred and thirteen Halifax branches, and one hundred and thirty-three Bank of Scotland branches remaining. Other financial institutions have also been cutting payroll numbers, with Barclays, NatWest, Virgin Money, Ulster Bank, Metro Bank, (planning 20% staff cuts), and RBS all announcing closures in 2023.

It is reported that Google has started construction on a new US$ 1 billion data centre in the UK, to be located on a thirty-three-acre site in Hertfordshire, purchased by the firm in October 2020. It expects that the new project will boost the growth of AI and “help ensure reliable digital services to Google Cloud customers and Google users in the UK”. The tech giant currently employs 7k but this number will increase, initially due to the construction process, posting “this new data centre will help meet growing demand for our AI and cloud services and bring crucial compute capacity to businesses across the UK while creating construction and technical jobs for the local community”.

It is reported that the EU competition watchdog will block Amazon’s takeover of vacuum cleaner maker iRobot – and this comes after it was given the green light from the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority; it had found that its place in the UK market was “modest” and that it already faced several significant rivals. European regulators are concerned that iRobot’s tie-up with Amazon could make it difficult for other vacuum-makers to compete.

One of the UK’s well-known food suppliers, Premier Foods, is planning to cut prices on more of its products, including Mr Kipling, Bisto and Angel Delight. Latest figures indicate that food prices are rising less quickly, with Premier planning to increase prices of own-brand products – this sector had seen marked growth attributable to surging food prices, as food inflation figures topped 19% only ten months ago in March 2023; last month, it had dropped to 8.0%. The company started lowering prices in Q4 and noted that discounts had helped it to report strong trading over Christmas, with group sales up 14.4% on the year.

Towards the end of last year, there was concern that some suppliers and retailers had not been passing on savings quickly enough down the supply chain to shoppers. In November, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority concluded that makers of some popular food brands had raised prices by more than their costs over the past two years.

Last December, China’s National Press and Publication Administration had proposed regulations limiting the amount of money and time people spent playing video games. However, last Tuesday the draft rules were no longer on the NPPA website which then saw share prices of Chinese gaming firms – including the world’s biggest gaming company Tencent Holdings and its rival NetEase plummet almost US$ 80.0 billion at the time – surge after this apparent U-turn. China is the world’s biggest online gaming market and the government had introduced legislation to limit in-game purchases. Its largest crackdown to date, was in 2021 when children were banned from playing for more than an hour on certain days.

In a bid to make its business more profitable, Scottish investment firm Abrdn is to cut five hundred jobs, (equating to about 10% of the workforce), as it hopes to cut US$ 191 million costs, mainly in non-staff, as it faces “challenging” market conditions in 2024. About 80% of the savings will be from its investments arm, which in the six months to the end of December “continued to face structural headwinds”.

The expected agreement that would have seen Sony and India’s Zee merge has been abandoned because “as, among other things, the closing conditions to the merger were not satisfied by then”. Part of the problem is Zee’s chief executive, Punit Goenka, who had been touted to head up the new entity, is now the subject of a probe by India’s market regulator. When the deal was first announced, the newly planned firm was set to become a major media player in the country, challenging rivals such as Walt Disney’s Hotstar. Both firms have operated in India for years and own streaming platforms ZEE5 and SonyLIV, with the country becoming an increasingly lucrative market for streaming platforms that are targeting a young digital audience.

Driven by the double whammy of high interest rates and increased costs for buyers, annual US home sales sank to their lowest since 1995, with many potential sellers with lower rates deciding to stay at their current abode. Last year, only 4.09 million homes were purchased, with tight supply pushing up prices to a new record. There was a 1.0% rise in the 2023 median price to US$ 389.8k, having climbed by more than 40% since 2019. The buying frenzy, which had started during a period of rates being slashed to boost the sector during the pandemic, started to fizzle out in 2022, when rates began to soar. In the subsequent period, an increasing number of buyers entered the market, whilst many with loans, (with shorter terms or variable rates are more common), found it better and more economically sensible to stay because of the high costs, including rates of up to 7.0%, to move.  This has also created a stark divide between would-be buyers and existing homeowners.

Latest reports show that freight traffic going through the Suez Canal has almost halved
since October, when Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea. The Suez Canal handles 12%-15% of global trade and 25%-30% of container traffic, with the latter’s shipments down 82% in the week to 19 January from early December. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reported that the number of ships using the canal since early December had fallen by 39%, leading to a 45% decline in freight tonnage. There are two other key global trade routes disrupted, one following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the other being the Panama Canal, where low water levels from drought meant shipping last month was down 36% year-on-year and 62% from two years ago. All these disruptions have resulted in delays, higher costs and higher greenhouse gas emissions, because ships were opting for longer routes and also travelling faster to compensate for detours.

Before the start of the Gaza-Israel war, the World Trade Organisation had forecast that the global economy would grow 3.3% in 2024, but since then, events, such as the ME crisis and the friction in the Red Sea, may see this prediction rather ambitious. Add in other factors – including presidential elections, in several high-profile counties such as the US UK and India, and a worrying drought in the Panama Canal, the economy would do well to beat the miserable 0.8% 2023 growth. The WTO Director General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, indicated that the world is “moving towards normalisation”, but at the same time conditions are “not normal”.

The bull market, that started on 12 October 2022, continues unabated as last Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a record high 4,840, and even higher today, boosted by the tech sector, driven by chipmakers, such as SMCI, Nvidia and Broadcom, surging on AI optimism and the belief that interest rates will start to head south. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit new records, trading on the day at 37,864 and today at over 38,000.  Although the Nasdaq recovered 43% lost in 2023, it would need to rise another 4.8% to return to its record high close of 16,057, reached on 19 November 2021.

With Australia’s population surging over the past eighteen months, following the reopening of international borders, the IMF has finished a global study on the macroeconomic effects of migration, along with the drivers of big migration inflows. It concluded that migration surges have historically been associated with higher growth and favourable labour market outcomes, with negligible price pressures except in the housing market. The latter could be partially solved by boosting supply which has been a problem for the Albanese – and earlier – governments. It concluded that there has been a positive impact of migration on macroeconomic outcomes—output, employment, and productivity—without significant inflationary impact.

The IMF also indicated that the country has the second highest level of foreign-born residents in the OECD and that “around 30% of Australia’s population was foreign-born in 2019, which is more than twice the OECD average of 14% and higher than other major migrant-receiving OECD countries such as Canada (21%), Germany (16%), the UK (14%),  the US (14%) and France (13%)”, and that migrants constitute 40% of the total population in large metropolitan regions. One significant factor was that recent migrants to Australia tended to have higher levels of educational attainment than existing residents and than the migrant intake of most other nations.

Every year, the IMF releases an annual assessment of every country’s economy, and Australia is no exception. Although there are many positives in their study, it does warn that that the country’s 2024 growth will be 0.4% lower, on the year, at 1.4%. That being the case, Australians will have had endured a per capita recession for almost two whole years running. Another warning sees the global body noting that inflation may not fall to RBA’s 2%-3% target range until 2026, and “highlighted the potential need for further monetary tightening to achieve the targeted inflation range by 2025”; this year, it expects the average cash rate at 4.4%, and that there will be a negative savings rate of -5.1% of Australians’ disposable income this year. It also urged further restraint on public spending, whilst acknowledging the fact that the federal government did return to surplus for the fiscal year ending 30 June 2023 and its

 commitment to debt sustainability.” The IMF also noted that a comprehensive tax reform would be beneficial and highlighted that rebalancing the tax system from direct to indirect taxes, while addressing regressive impacts, would promote greater efficiency. Some worrying news was that home prices last year rose to 4.9 times income, across the capital cities, and it forecast that this would keep rising for the next five years at an average of 5% plus. Accordingly, it “supported the initiatives to boost housing supply to improve affordability and emphasized the criticality of supportive planning and land‑use policies.”

After the government decided that Australia’s “golden visa” was “delivering poor economic outcomes”, it has been axed and will be replaced with more skilled-worker visas, capable “of making outsized contributions to Australia”. Since its 2012 inception, thousands of significant investor visas have been granted, with 85% of successful applicants coming from China. Its aim was to drive foreign investment and stoke innovation, with candidates having to invest more than US$ 3.3 million, (AUD 5 million), in Australia to be eligible, but critics have long argued that the scheme was being used by “corrupt officials” to “park illicit funds”. Transparency International Australia noted that “for far too long corrupt officials and kleptocrats have used golden visas as a vehicle to park their illicit funds in Australia and arguably hide their proceeds of crime.”

This blog has previously commented on the housing crisis in Australia driven by factors such as affordability and supply shortage, not helped by 2023 net migration figures of 500k. This week, there are reports from New South Wales that since 2016, about 53% of apartment buildings, registered in the state, have had at least one serious defect. The current NSW Building Commissioner, David Chandler, was appointed in 2019. The scale of the problem can be seen that his staff numbers have risen from thirty to more than four hundred to tackle this problem. Only last month, the NSW Building Commission was established to tackle shoddy development work across the state and has already issued sixteen building work rectification orders. In 2021, a third of buildings registered had one or more serious defects compared to five years prior where 63% of strata managers reported problems. Lawyer Bronwyn Weir, co-author of the 2018 Building Confidence report, which examined how effective compliance and enforcement systems were in the construction industry across Australia, noted, “construction really changed in the mid to late 90s with some shifts by all Australian governments towards what we call a privatised model of building certification, and what that also meant was fewer inspections that also led to lower levels of detail and documentation,” and “so [it was] a combination of things, but generally the system is not robust enough”. The Building Confidence report also found systemic issues with the construction industry nationwide. The conundrum facing the NSW Premier Chris Minns – and other state leaders – is the demand for increased housing cannot be met if regulations are tightened. For example, Minns is on record saying he has “no chance” to reach his annual 75k target he agreed to in National Cabinet last year.

The annual Sunday Times top taxpayers’ listing in the UK is always worth reading, with 67% of this list paying less tax this year than they did a year earlier; it is estimated that these one hundred individuals added US$ 6.32 billion (GBP 5.35 billion). The top three “contributors” were the Russian financial trader, Alex Gerko, Bernie Ecclestone and Bet365’s owner, Denise Coates; they paid tax amounting to US$ 847 million, (GBP 665 million), US$ 828 million (GBP 650 million), and US$ 479 million (GBP 376 million). The former F1 supremo is a new entrant to the list having had to pay the tax to avoid imprisonment, after having failed to declare more than US$ 510 million held in a trust in Singapore when asked by tax authorities in 2015. Others in the top ten include, Fred and Peter Done and family – owners of gambling company Betfred, Sir Tim Martin – owner of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Sir James Dyson and family – vacuum cleaner and household appliance company, the Weston family – owners of brands including Selfridges, Primark, Ryvita, Silver Spoon, Ovaltine and Twinings,  Mike Ashley – owner of brands including, Sports Direct, House of Fraser, Evans Cycles and Jack Wills, John Bloor – owner of Bloor Homes and Triumph Motorcycles, and Bruno Schroder and family,investment management company. Other names include JK Rowling, Ed Sheeran and Anthony Joshua – in at thirty first, thirty second and eighty-eighth.

3.3% Q4 growth in the US economy surprised the market that was expecting more like 2.0%, with the main drivers being robust household and government spending. Over the year, the economy grew more than 0.6% to 2.5% but had improved markedly in H2 with Q3 growth of 4.9%. Noting the last two quarterly returns, the immediate outlook for the resilient US economy is promising and is a godsend for the eighty-one-year-old resident of the White House in election year – with consumer sentiment improving, the stock market is up, petrol prices are down, unemployment remains low and inflation easing to 3.4%, down from more than 9.0% in 2022.

In an unusual move, Kerri Badenoch has pushed the blame on the UK’s failure to hit post-Brexit trade targets, on a change of the US president. The Business Secretary claimed that although the UK has free trade agreements covering 60% of overseas trade, it missed its 80% target because she said Joe Biden’s administration had no appetite for trade deals.  She also indicated that “the Biden administration decided it was not doing trade deals – with anyone not just us.” She noted that the US had moved to specific smaller deals in areas like semiconductors and critical minerals. Liam Byrne, chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee, posted that the Institute of Directors business group had estimated that meeting that goal would require export growth of 3.5% per year – strangely, the Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated current growth at 0.1%. One of the two is going to be proved completely out of kilter – and no prizes for guessing which one!

In the UK, Which? has reported increasing number cases of “shrinkflation”, with the study also noting that 33% of people surveyed had also noticed skimpflation” on supermarket shelves. Examples of the former include mouthwash, tea, sausages, toothpaste and crisps, with one of the worst being Listerine Fresh Burst mouthwash, which shrank from 600ml to 500ml – but went up in price by US$ 0.66 in Tesco, equating to a staggering 46% increase in the unit price per 100ml. The latter relates to popular food items that have been downgraded with cheaper ingredients, including Tesco Finest sausages were reduced from 97% pork to 90%, Yeo Valley Spreadable Butter went from containing 54% butter to 50% butter and Morrisons Guacamole (150g) went from 80% avocado to 77%.

Following a deadly 2015 dam collapse, that claimed nineteen people, a Brazilian judge has ordered mining giants BHP, Vale and their Samarco iron ore 50:50 JV to pay US$ 9.67 billion  in damages. The collapse caused a giant mudslide that wiped out the village of Bento Rodrigues and also polluted the Rio Doce river, compromising the waterway to its outlet in the Atlantic Ocean (six hundred and fifty km away). The judge added that the money, which will be adjusted for inflation since 2015, will be put into a state fund and used for projects and initiatives in the area impacted by the dam collapse. A 2016 report released found that the collapse of the dam was due to design flaws. A small earthquake on the day of the dam burst may also have “accelerated” the failure. BHP and Vale also face a class action lawsuit in the UK with more than 700k claimants. In January 2019, another tailings dam owned by Vale collapsed in the same state near the town of Brumadinho, resulting in two hundred and seventy deaths. The message to the miners is Fool Me Once, Shame on You!

Tired of Waiting For You!                                                        19 January 2024

The real estate and properties transactions were valued at US$ 3.54 billion in total during the week ending 19 January 2024. The sum of transactions was 209 plots, sold for US$ 597 million, and 2,100 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.32 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Wasl for US$ 46 million, the second in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 33 million and in Bukadra for US$ 22 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with forty-four sales, worth US$ 25 million, followed by twenty-six sales, in Al Hebiah Fifth for US$ 26 million, and eighteen sales, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, valued at US$ 76 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were two villas, one in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 35 million, and the other in World Islands for US$ 22 million and an apartment Palm Jumeirah for US$ 21 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 621 million, with the highest being land in Nadd Hessa, mortgaged for US$ 223 million. One hundred properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 210 million.

According to December’s ValuStrat Price Index, Dubai apartment prices rose 15.4% last year – the highest annual capital growth for apartments in a decade. The residential market witnessed a slowing in overall price gains in December, with off plan sales markedly lower, as secondary ready-home deals picked up the slack. Capital values of Dubai’s apartments and villas increased at lower monthly rates during the final month of 2023. The monthly ValuStrat Price Index hit 103.1 points, up 19.9% annually, with a slower December increase of 2.0%, compared to 100 points set in January 2014 and 112.9 points at the market’s peak in the same year; apartments were at 84.3 points, and villas at 133.1 points. For villas, the top annual performers were Jumeirah Islands (32.2%), Palm Jumeirah (31.9%), Dubai Hills Estate (30.6%), and Mudon (27.2%); on the year, villa prices were 24.9% higher,  and up 2.3%, on the month. December’s ValuStrat Price Index, Dubai apartment prices rose 15.4% last year – the highest annual capital growth for apartments in a decade. The top locations were Discovery Gardens (26.4%), mainly driven by Route 2020 Metro extension, Palm Jumeirah (25.4%), The Greens (24.3%), Motor City (20.7%) and Town Square (19.5%).

Off-plan Oqood registrations fell sharply by 63.7% monthly and 70.3% on the year equating to an overall share of 28.2% of overall monthly residential unit sales. Top off-plan locations, transacted this month, included projects located in Dubai Maritime City (7.5%), Business Bay (7.0%), Jumeirah Village Circle (6.4%), and Dubai Harbour (5.2%). Ready homes transaction volume was 37.5% higher than in 2022. The top four developers – Emaar, (17.3%), Damac (8.9%), Falcon City of Wonders (8.2%) and Nakheel (5.9%) – accounted for 38.1% of sales. Location-wise, the top four – Dubai Maritime City (7.5%), Business Bay (7.0%) Jumeirah Village Circle (6.4%) and Dubai Harbour (5.2%) – accounted for 26.1% of the total transactions. The top four locations transacted this month – Dubai Maritime City (7.5%), Business Bay (7.0%), Jumeirah Village Circle (6.4%)  and Dubai Harbour (5.2%) – accounted for 21.1% of the total off plan sales. For ready homes, the top four – Jumeirah Village Circle (8.9%), Falcon City of Wonders (8.2%), Business Bay (7.9%), and Dubai Hills Estate (5.8%) – accounted for 30.8% of all sales.

Last year, Dubai’s luxury home market, (residences selling for more than US$ 10 million), reached record levels nearly doubling to US$ 7.6 billion and outstripping global rivals London and New York. Knight Frank posted that sales rose 91%, including four hundred and thirty-one transactions in Q4. Furthermore, properties listed in the super-prime market, (residences selling at a minimum US$ 25 million), doubled last year, with fifty-six deals worth US$ 2.3 billion. Global annual sales have yet to be released but over the first nine months of 2023, Dubai, with US$ 5.8 billion of sales, of three hundred and twenty-three units, was well ahead of second place, London’s US$ 3.2 billion; New York registered one hundred and fifty-nine transactions. The top buyers in Dubai’s prime market during the first nine months were from the UK (16%), China (14%), the UAE (12%) and India (7%).

Palm Jumeirah was the most popular for prime sales, accounting for 38.5% of all homes, with one hundred and sixty-six deals, and 39.2% for super-prime properties, with twenty-two transactions. ValuStrat posted that villa prices on The Palm grew 3% in December, on the month, and up 31.9% year-on-year. Interestingly, it noted that Palm Jumeirah has two hundred units under construction, accounting for just 0.3% of the 78k homes being built across the city, and 1.44k apartments in the “launched phase” planned for The Palm, which represents 3.4% of all such units in Dubai. Furthermore, he added “The Palm Jumeirah … had 9.5% fewer homes for sale last year than in 2022, reflecting the buy-to-stay and buy-to-hold attitude of the bulk of purchasers”. Jumeirah Bay Island posted forty-seven “prime” sales, followed by Palm Jebel Ali’s thirty-six transactions.

Danube Properties has launched its twenty-eighth, and biggest, project – Bayz101, with one hundred and one levels – making it the fourth tower, along with the Burj Khalifa, Marina 101 and Princess Tower, in Dubai, with more than one hundred floors. Located in Business Bay – and close to the Burj Khalifa – it will have a built-up area of 2.1 million sq ft and house 1.34k units, ranging from studios to 4 B/R apartments, along with retail space; completion date is slated for 2028. Prices will start at US$ 327k, with a project value of US$ 817 million. This project will bring Danube’s property portfolio to 16.23k units, with a combined development value exceeding US$ 4.90 billion.

According to the latest IMF report, UAE property prices, in 2023, recorded the highest increase among all other countries, at 10.4%; it also noted that the country is ranked fifth in the world to record the largest increases since pre pandemic, with prices 14.2% higher. (It does seem strange that these figures are a poor reflection of what has actually happened in the UAE where double digit increases have been the norm over the past two years).

Country	Change (%)
UAE	10.39
Mexico	4.72
Israel	3.1
Portugal	2.42
Thailand	1.54
Japan	0.62
Malaysia	0.27

Countries recording highest property price increase pre-pandemic included:

Country	Change (%)
Israel	23.7
Portugal	22.29
US	19.15
Japan	15.29
Netherlands	14.4
UAE	14.15
Australia	9.24
Mexico	8.44
Hungary	7.71
New Zealand	7.68

Source: IMF

The Dubai Land Department has decided to rename some twenty-eight major roads, with the most eye-catching, (and most talked about) – being the Dubai stretch of Sheikh Zayed Road changing its name to Burj Khalifa.

In the first eleven months of 2023, Dubai hosted 15.37 million visitors – around 20% higher on the year and up 2.5% compared to pre-pandemic 2019. It helps tourism numbers when the emirate is ranked the most popular global destination for holidaymakers in TripAdvisor’s 2023 Travellers’ Choice Awards for the second year in a row. Consequently, Dubai International Airport expects 2023 visitor traffic to reach 86.8 million – 0.4 million higher than in 2019.

Over the eleven-month period, Western Europe was Dubai’s top source market, accounting for 2.9 million travellers (19% of the total number of international visitors), followed by South Asia (2.75 million – 18%), GCC  (2.43 million – 16%), Russia, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eastern Europe(2.0 million – 13%), the Mena region (12%), North and South-East Asia (9%),the Americas (7%), Africa (4%) and Australasia (2%).

Dubai hotels performed well in the first eleven months of 2023, with average occupancy 4.6% higher on the year to 77.2% – and 2.3% higher than the pre-pandemic 74.9%. Revenue per available room came in on US$ 107 – 4.0% higher on the year and an impressive 30% up on pre pandemic returns. Hotel guests at 3.8 nights, were similar to 2022 but 0.4 days longer than the corresponding period in 2019.

This year, Emirates is planning to hire a further 5k staff ahead of the delivery of its new fleet of A350s this summer and Boeing 777Xs in 2025; this will add a further one hundred and ten planes to EK’s portfolio. The world’s biggest long-haul carrier will host open days and assessments in more than four hundred and sixty cities across six continents and noted that “the recruitment drive is designed primarily for those who will soon or have recently stepped into the world of work.” This new hiring comes after Emirates added a further 8k to its payroll last year, as it ramped up services to meet a boom in travel after the Covid-19 pandemic; its current number of crew members is currently at 21.5k.

What has been claimed to be the world’s ‘purest ice’, harvested from glaciers that formed over 100k years ago in Greenland, has arrived in Dubai after a nine-week journey. The glacier ice, that weighed twenty-two tonnes, will be shaped into ice cubes for exclusive use in select up-market restaurants/hotels and homes of high-net-worth individuals. The product is being stored with the Natural Ice Company in Al Quoz and the supplier Arctic Ice has finalised the packaging, with deliveries set to commence in a month. It noted that “we have received pre-orders for the ice. We will do our due diligence and then proceed further. The ice will not be sold to everybody” and that “our exclusive product and the venue must match.” Since glacier ice melts slower than normal ice, it will last longer than “normal” ice, with the added benefits of “not been polluted in any way by modern industry” and has no little or no taste so it will not alter the flavour of beverages as it melts. The company has a rare licence to export ice by the Government of Greenland, and “complies with all legal and environmental requirements, so we ensure a sustainable use of Greenland’s resources.” Depending on sales and orders, the company is eyeing the next shipment in a couple of months.

The UAE has again participated in the fifty-fourth edition of the World Economic Forum 2024, held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, with the five-day event concluding today. The country was represented by more than one hundred delegates, including heads of national companies and corporate leaders, leading private sector firms, government officials, and senior business leaders, with 80% from major national companies and the private sector. The UAE’s presence is in line with the directives of Sheikh Mohammed, Vice President, Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, in solidifying the global economic key role and competitiveness of the UAE and exchanging expertise for a sustainable national and global economy. UAEs Pavilion has again the tag line “Impossible is Possible”.

Over the past two years, the UAE has signed CEPAs with several countries and trading partners such as India, Indonesia and Turkey to double non-oil foreign trade to US$ 1.09 trillion, (AED 4 trillion) by 2031. Having signed the first Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement two years ago, with India, the UAE has made similar agreements with several countries including Cambodia, Columbia, Congo-Brazzaville, Georgia, Indonesia, Israel, Mauritius, South Korea and Turkiye. CEPA negotiations are ongoing with at least ten other nations, including Australia which has commenced the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement talks.

This week, Australia’s Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, visited the UAE and as she left for her ME trip said “my visit to the UAE will reaffirm our close friendship and welcome the commencement of negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The UAE is an important partner that plays a key role in regional security.” Non-oil trade between the UAE and Australia reached US$ 4.5 billion in 2022, 28% higher on the year, and almost double that of the 2020 figure. In 2022, the UAE was Australia’s leading trade partner in the ME and its nineteenth-largest export destination globally. There are at least three hundred businesses operating in the UAE in key areas, including building, construction, financial services, agricultural supplies and training services. Although its embassy is located in Abu Dhabi, there is a consulate and a business group (Australian Business Council in Dubai) here in Dubai.

DP World will be the conduit for the Dubai government and the state-run Pakistan Railways and Port Qasim Authority after an agreement, between both governments, was signed to strengthen their relations in the marine and logistics sectors. The Dedicated Freight Corridor is planned to run from Karachi Port, on the Arabian Sea, passing through Karachi, to the Pipri Marshalling Yard, nearly forty-five km away. This will improve efficiency, transport times, and reduce the overall cost of logistics. A framework agreement was signed with Pakistan’s Ministry of Maritime Affairs to dredge the navigation channel, with DP World responsible for the capital dredging. Another agreement sees the development of an economic zone at Port Qasim, which aims to attract more than US$ 3 billion of FDI, again under DP World’s tutelage.

The RTA has confirmed that two new tollgates – Business Bay Crossing and Al Safa South Toll Gate on Burj Khalifa (formerly known as SZR) – will be introduced by November, in line with the completion of the Al Khail Road Improvement Project. A single tariff will be required when crossing these two new toll gates within a space of one hour. Two of the main aims of this exercise is to implement policies aimed at encouraging public transport usage and reducing dependence on private vehicles and to streamline traffic flows on the emirate’s roads. The existing eight gates have contributed to reducing the total traffic time by an annual six million hours by decreasing traffic volumes on both bridges – Al Maktoum and Al Garhoud – by 26% and reducing travel times by 24% on SZR and Al Ittihad Street, whilst increasing the number of mass transit users by an annual nine million.

This week saw the seventeenth three-day Light + Intelligent Building Middle East, the region’s largest show for lighting technology, at Dubai World Trade Centre, featuring over 1k brands; these included Technical Lighting, Electric Lamps & Components, Decorative Lighting, Architectural Lighting, Electrical Lighting and Smart Home & Building Automation. Spanning three halls, it attracted over four hundred international exhibitors – 75% higher than last year – from over thirty countries.

Government deposits increased by 3.8% (US$ 4.50 billion) to US$ 123.49 billion. The Central Bank posted that, in November 2023, cash deposits grew 8.6% (US$ 14.71 billion), to US$ 185.9 billion. Over the period, cash deposits were 7.4% higher (US$ 12.72 billion) to US$ 173.19 billion, whilst quasi-cash deposits rose about 20.0% (US$ 51.16 billion) to US$ 310.09 billion. Quasi-cash deposits include terms deposits and savings deposits for residents in dirham, as well as deposits for residents in foreign currency. Government deposits increased by 3.8% (US$ 4.50 billion) to US$ 123.49 billion. There was a 10.4% hike in currency issued to US$ 36.46 billion. It appears that a 5.0% GDP growth in 2024 will be enough to boost business confidence.

January’s United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Investment Trends Monitor posted that the UAE foreign direct investment climbed to the second highest in the world after the US. The country’s greenfield announcements were 28.0% higher on the year. FDI flow into the UAE recorded a 10.0% growth to a record high $22.73 billion in 2022, compared to a year earlier. Last year, global FDI flows in 2023 grew 3.0%, at an estimated $1.37 trillion, driven by recession fears, that had been overrated, financial markets performing better than expected, and higher values in a few European conduit economies; EU FDI rose from negative US$ 150 billion in 2022 to positive $141 billion because of large swings in Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Excluding these conduits, global FDI flows were 18% lower.

The Cyber Security Council of the UAE government warned residents of the dangers of fraud in cryptocurrencies, as they constitute a cross-border threat that requires vigilance from dealers. It advises people to be watchful and take steps to avoid fraud. Dr Mohammed Hamad Al Kuwaiti, Chairman of the Cybersecurity Council, stressed the continuation of efforts to strengthen the pillars of cybersecurity in a way that contributes to mitigating these risks and protecting the financial system from modern-day digital threats. He also warned cryptocurrency investors to be cautious, when offered exaggerated benefits, as well as reiterating the common fraudulent methods – including phishing through fake emails or text messages, aimed at deceiving users into entering sensitive personal or financial information, in addition to stealing cryptocurrency wallets, through hacking applications or websites or social engineering.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 15 January, 153 points (3.9%) higher the previous four weeks, shed 37 points (0.9%) to close the trading week on 4,067 by Friday 19 January 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.02 higher the previous week, lost US$ 0.08, closing on US$ 2.04 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.75, US$ 1.59, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.69, US$ 4.75, US$ 1.58 and US$ 0.38. On 19 January, trading was at 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 127 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, on 12 January 2024.

By Friday, 19 January 2024, Brent, US$ 0.61 lower (0.8%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 0.34 (0.4%) to close on US$ 78.56. Gold, US$ 0.8 (0.4%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 22 higher (1.1%) to trade at US$ 2,032 on 19 January 2024.

An indicator that the troubles in the Red Sea has had a negative impact on shipping, has now spread to manufacturing in Europe. Tesla, (which will suspend production at its Berlin factory from 29 January to 11 February), and Volvo have confirmed they were suspending some production in Europe due to a shortage of components. Porsche is also concerned about potential delays, although there has been no impact on production so far. Last week, container shipping rates jumped further, as concerns grew that vessels carrying everything from clothes to phones and car batteries will have to avoid the Suez Canal, (which accounts for over 12% of global traffic), for longer than expected. To add to global shipping woes, low water levels due to drought have reduced crossings of the Panama Canal. There are real concerns that supply chains may be impacted, (again), along with a knock-on effect on inflation moving higher.

Porsche has seen MEAI regional deliveries rising – up 11% to 9.1k vehicles on the year and 47% higher since 2020. Although the Cayenne, (with a new model launched), was its best-selling model, the Taycan posted an 80% jump. The brand is currently working towards its goal of having 80% of its cars being all-electric by 2030 and noted that the UAE is one of the more advanced in terms of electric vehicle infrastructure; Porsche already has three hundred and twenty-six destination chargers in the country.

Michael O’Leary is complaining again – this time of “minor issues” around quality control – following last week’s Alaska Airlines 737 incident. Although confirming that Ryanair still remains 100% committed to Boeing, mainly due to price comparisons with Airbus, he noted examples of poor standards in new planes sent from America. Although the carrier does not operate any of the 737 MAX 9 aircraft, that are at the centre of the safety investigation, the largest airline by passenger numbers in Europe is one of Boeing’s largest customers. He said that although Boeing had made “tremendous strides” in the last two years on production quality, “they’re not there yet”. He is not happy with late deliveries of 737 MAX 8 planes and has MAX 10 variants on order, but deliveries have taken longer than anticipated and remain behind schedule. He also added “we ourselves have found minor issues on aircraft deliveries that shouldn’t be occurring in a world class manufacturer like Boeing, and I think Boeing have more to do on the quality control side,” and that those concerns extended to fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems. However, he concluded that “we see no indication of any passenger concern – not one passenger.”

At the beginning of the week, the US Federal Aviation Administration confirmed that all 737 MAX 9 planes would remain grounded until Boeing provides further data, posting that “for the safety of American travellers the FAA will keep the Boeing 737-9 MAX grounded until extensive inspection and maintenance is conducted and data from inspections is reviewed.” The watchdog indicated that it required additional information from Boeing before approving the manufacturer’s proposed inspection and maintenance instructions. The FAA said it was planning to increase its oversight of Boeing production and manufacturing, including auditing its 737 MAX production line and suppliers; it was also looking at using an independent third party to oversee Boeing’s inspections.

IATA posted that November global air travel demand topped 99.1% of pre-Covid 2019 levels and was 29.7% higher on the year – and up 26.4% for international travel – with all regions showing positive returns; the Asia-Pacific region continued to report the strongest year-on-year results (63.8%). Europe, ME, N America, Latin America and Africa saw traffic, capacity and load factor at 14.8%, 15.2% and minus 0.3% to 83.3% – 18.6%, 19.0% and minus 0.2% to 77.4% -14.3%, 16.3% and minus 1.4% to 80.0% – 20.0%, 17.7% and 1.7% to 84.9% – and 22.1%, 29.6 and minus 4.3% to 69.7%. However, overall, it is still 5.5% down on pre-Covid levels.  Domestic traffic for the month was up 34.8% on the year, and 6.7% higher on the November 2019 returns, with China posting a 272% improvement, and the US 9.1%.

Following a disappointing Christmas trading period, Burberry has issued its second profits warning in under three months; retail revenue, over the 13 weeks to 30 December, was 7.0% lower on the year at US$ 900 million, with comparable store sales down 4%. It also warned that it expects unfavourable currency exchange rates to knock its revenues by US$ 153 million and profits by around US$ 76 million. Consequently, the retailer said it now expected full year adjusted operating profits in a range between US$ 523 million and US$ 586 million; its previous warning in November had lowered its profits forecast to between US$ 704 million and US$ 900 million. At last Friday’s opening bell, its share value fell 14% but recovered somewhat by closing only 8% lower. Over recent months, the luxury retailer has been seeking to move upmarket under a turnaround plan initiated by chief executive Jonathan Akeroyd, with the exercise patently still ongoing.

Other retailers, including M&S and Tesco, had better Christmas results, with the former rising its annual profit forecast for the year to February to US$ 350 million from an earlier US$ 331 million result. It registered a 6.8% sales hike in the six weeks to 06 January and 7.5% over the nineteen weeks also covering its third quarter. The supermarket added that its performance benefitted by price cuts on almost 2.7k products. M&S also posted a better-than-expected 8.1% rise in like-for-like sales over the thirteen weeks to 30 December, driven by strong performances in the food and womenswear units. However, it did not lift its profit expectations, warning about future economic uncertainty and higher payroll/business costs. Sainsbury’s posted strong grocery growth but a downturn in non-food sales. Lidl and Greggs reported strong demand over the period. The British Retail Consortium said sales growth lagged the rate of inflation, as many shoppers kept away from big purchases such as for furniture and high-end electronics.

There are reports that China’s Fosun Tourism Group is in advanced negotiations to sell Thomas Cook to eSky, a Polish online travel agency, majority-owned by MCI Capital, a private equity firm focused on Central and Eastern Europe. Founded in 1841, this deal would be the second time since its infamous 2019 collapse which left thousands stranded overseas and many staff jobless. The Chinese owners, part of a conglomerate with interest in EPL’s Wolverhampton Wanderers, had a big stake in the travel agency when it was a listed company and, following its demise, acquired the brand for just US$ 14 million; it subsequently relaunched Thomas Cook as an online travel agent; whilst at the same time, selling most of its physical operations to Hays Travel.

As the initial phase of two government-commissioned probes into the broadsheet’s sale nears its conclusion, it has been announced that a Telegraph Media Group executive, Cathy Southgate, has been named acting CFO of the Telegraph’s parent company, with independent director Stephen Welch taking on responsibility for the company’s audit. It is understood that the audit and senior accounting officer functions will be overseen by Stephen Welch, one of the parent company’s independent directors. Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority have been instructed by Lucy Frazer, the UK Culture Secretary, to report back to her on the takeover’s implications for press freedom later this month. This comes after RedBird IMI, an Abu Dhabi-backed vehicle, agreed a deal to take ownership of the two titles – the Daily Telegraph and The Spectator. Last year, the Telegraph’s holding company was forced into receivership by Lloyds Banking Group over the repayment of a US$ 1.48 billion loan, half of which was a loan from RedBird IMI, with the remainder solely from IMI. The loans and interest were repaid earlier, after the Barclay family structured a deal with RedBird IMI, which is majority-owned by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club. RedBird IMI has notified the independent directors of its intention to exercise an option to convert US$ 765 million of the funding provided to Barclays from debt into equity ownership of the Telegraph, and the remainder secured against other, unspecified, Barclay-owned assets. There are concerns that handing control of the traditionally Tory-supporting broadsheets to foreign ownership could undermine media freedom.

Following a pre-Christmas profit warning, Superdry has confirmed that it had drafted in PricewaterhouseCoopers to examine further debt-raising options. Earlier last year, the London-listed clothing retailer took a number of steps to strengthen its balance sheet, including a modest equity raise and brand licensing deals in Asia pacific and India. It already has sizeable debt facilities available to it, through arrangements with Hilco and Bantry Bay Capital, worth a total of more than US$ 127 million. Superdrug is the latest retailer to report upbeat results for the all-important festive season. However, Superdry has a market capitalisation of less than US$ 38 million, and there are chances that its biggest shareholder, Julian Dunkerton, with about 25%of the share capital, may seek to take the company private. The retailer noted that own-brand sales increased as shoppers sought more affordable alternatives, with demand for cosmetics also rising by 20%.

Despite Birkenstock ramping up spending to open stores and expand production and expecting demand for its iconic sandal range demand to maintain its robust position in the shoe sector. Following strong sales in 2023, up by more than 20% to US$ 1.5 billion, and it  expecting a 15% hike in revenue, its share value sank 8.0%. The results were the first since the company listed its shares in the US, with profits and margins forecast to shrink further this year. In Q3, the firm posted a loss of US$ 30 million, mainly due to a rise in administrative expenses ahead of the listing.

As widely expected, Tata Steel, UK’s largest steelworks, is to close both its coal-powered blast furnaces in Port Talbot, resulting in 3k retrenchments, country-wide, with most out of work by September; the steelworks will be transitioned to a greener electric arc furnace. The Indian-owned firm expects the transition to cost US$ 1.6 billion, (33% of which came via a government subsidy), on its move to a method of steelmaking that will cut carbon emissions and stem financial losses on its UK operations of US$ 1.3 million a day.

Apple has lost its latest battle with medical technology company Masimo, with a US appeals court siding with the latter over a patent dispute relating to its smartwatch models. Apple lost the case in October but appealed the decision in December, with Apple being allowed to sell two smartwatch models – its Series 9 and Ultra 2 models – in the US, until a final decision was made. Now it has been made with Apple the loser, but the tech giant has said it would continue selling the watches without the disputed blood oxygen feature to keep them on shelves. The medical tech Masimo, and spin-off Cercacor, have accused the iPhone maker of poaching key staff and taking other steps to steal technology it developed to measure oxygen levels in the blood. Under the court decision, the affected watches cannot be imported from 17:00 ET (22:00 GMT) yesterday. Apple is now the global leader in the smartphone market, (with over 20% of the market), taking the accolade off Samsung which had been the world leader for the past twelve years.

In Australia, Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has accused port operator DP World of acting in bad faith in its pay dispute with the Maritime Union but has ruled out using his ministerial powers to intervene in the ongoing dispute between the company and the union; on Wednesday, he had held meetings with both parties. The union is asking for a 16% pay rise for more than 1.5k workers over two years, which it says is still below the rate paid by bigger rival Patrick, and also wanted an increase to back pay of 27% over two years. DP World has claimed the dispute is costing Australia US$ 84 million in port delays, with the minister saying advice from his department did not suggest the impact was large, but he acknowledged there was a cost to consumers and that the government wanted to see an agreement reached “as quickly as possible.” The Australian Retailers Association said the ongoing industrial action had led to a two – eight-week backlog in shipments and 48k shipping containers standing idle nationwide. It does appear that the minister has forgotten that he should be the “referee” in this dispute by launching a personal attack on DP World’s Oceania vice president Nikolaj Noes, who was previously managing director of maritime company Svitzer. It brings to mind the 2022 dispute P&O Ferries had with the unions in the UK, with the then Minister of Trade, Grant Shapps, branding its supremo, Peter Hebblethwaite, a “pirate of the sea”, accusing him of “disgracefully shredding the reputation” of the company and that he should be dismissed. If ministers, like Burke and Shapps, did their jobs properly – and without any bias towards overseas entities – maybe such disputes could be settled quicker and collateral damage to economies could be avoided. Furthermore, comments such as “I have trouble believing that DP World has the interests of Australian consumers at heart when it is being run by the same person who previously  .   .”   can easily damage bilateral relations.

Australia recorded a 65.1k fall in jobs last month – the biggest monthly decline in thirty years, outside of the pandemic period. If these figures continue into 2024, then it could be argued that high interest rates had done their job, and it was time to reduce them. One thing is certain – there will be no more rate hikes in H1, with reductions likely if there are no more major global economic slowdowns.

Data from its National Bureau of Statistics indicated that, in 2023, the Chinese economy expanded 5.2% to US$ 17.63 trillion – slightly above market expectations but well above the 3.0% global average; in Q4, the economy grew 0.3% on the quarter to 5.2%. It appears that industrial production is already moving higher, as shown by the country’s value-added industrial output 6.8% higher last month (and 6.6% in November); the improvement will be driven by a gradual increase in domestic demand and the prospect of more government stimulus measures. It is estimated that, in 2023, China contributed more than 30% of global economic growth.

In the quarter ending 30 November,UK wage growth slowed 0.7% to 6.6%, but still remains well above the 3.9% rate of inflation while unemployment is unchanged, at 4.2%. The number of job vacancies dropped, (for the eighteenth consecutive quarter), to 934k, as businesses reduced their hiring rate. It was the eighteenth consecutive period of vacancy contraction – the longest run of quarterly falls but still above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Low unemployment and high job vacancies had led wages to grow at a record pace. November also had the lowest number of strike days for eighteen months due to a slowdown in health sector industrial action, as some NHS walkouts paused and consultants agreed a new pay deal. The BoE’s Andrew Bailey had been concerned about the summer wage rises which he describes as “unsustainable”. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt commented that “it has been tough for many families recently, but with inflation now falling and the economy gradually returning to growth today’s continuing rise in real wages will offer further relief”.

In the UK, the Confederation of British Industry said weak growth still continued to suggest that the UK might have slipped into recession in H2 last year, hammered by a triple whammy of headwinds in the form of subdued demand, cost pressures and ongoing difficulties finding suitable staff. It pointed to the fact that the country’s economy dipped 0.2% in the quarter ending 30 November. Future headwinds include the increasing number of socio/economic global troubles and the possibility of rising mortgage arrears, as more people roll off cheap deals. Other analysts disagree, pointing to declining interest (and mortgage) rates and the fact that inflation continues to move – albeit slowly – towards the BoE’s 2.0% target, along with November posting an unexpected 0.3% GDP rise. However, the possibility that the UK will go into a technical recession, once December figures are released, is still a possibility.

December retail sales volumes fell by 3.2% – the sharpest drop since the UK was in a Covid lockdown – with one of the main contributing factors being that people did their shopping earlier in November, taking advantage of Black Friday sales. The amount of non-food products bought dipped 3.9%, with department stores the worst hit, compared to a 2.7% increase for non-food products in November. Likewise, food demand was down 3.1% after being 1.1% higher in November. It seems that fashion was the least affected, with consumers cutting back on toys, sports equipment, watches and jewellery.

Oxfam International estimates that the five richest persons on the planet have more than doubled their cumulative wealth – from US$ 405 billion to US$ 869 billion – since 2020; over the same period, almost five billion, equating to 60% of the global population, have become poorer.  Even more statistics see that, at the current rate, it would take two hundred and thirty years to end poverty and that if each of the five wealthiest people in the world were to spend US$ 1 million every day, it would take four hundred and seventy-six years for them to have nothing left. Its Annual Inc report, released ahead of the World Economic Forum, comments that “we are living through what appears to be the start of a decade of division: in just three years, we have experienced a global pandemic, war, a cost-of-living crisis and climate breakdown”, and “each crisis has widened the gulf – not so much between the rich and people living in poverty, but between an oligarchic few and the vast majority.” In 2023, there were 7.1% more billionaires to 2.54k, with their collective wealth one billion dollars higher at US$ 12.0 trillion. The world’s richest 1% own 43% of all global financial assets, but it would take one thousand, two hundred years for a female worker, in the health and social sector, to earn what a chief executive in the biggest Fortune 100 companies earns, on average, in one year. It is not only individuals who are taking the lion’s share of worldwide wealth, it seems that global corporations are in on the act, seeing their average profits surge 89% in 2021 and 2022, with 2023 expected to be even more lucrative for the fat cats. It is reported that seven out of ten of the world’s biggest and publicly listed corporates have either a billionaire chief executive or a billionaire as their principal shareholder, but that just 0.4% of more than 1.6k of the world’s largest and most influential companies are publicly committed to paying their workers a living wage. Globally, seven hundred and ninety-one million workers have seen their wages fail to keep up with inflation and, as a result, have lost US$ 1.5 trillion over the past two years. Scary figures indeed!

Top five richest people in the world

1. Elon Musk                   US$206 billion
2. Jeff Bezos                   US$ 179 billion
3. Bernard Arnault         US$ 162 billion
4. Bill Gates                    US$ 149 billion
5. Mark Zuckerberg       US$135 billion

Source: Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index

Artificial Intelligence is here to stay and according to the IMF, it will impact nearly 40% of all jobs, with its MD, Kristalina Georgieva, noting that “in most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality”; she added that policymakers should address the “troubling trend” to “prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions”. It is estimated that advanced economies could see up to 60% of jobs being impacted, of which half can expect to benefit from the integration of AI, which will enhance their productivity. The other side of the coin sees the other 40% witnessing their jobs being affected, as AI will perform key tasks that are currently executed by humans, which will inevitably lower demand for labour, affecting wages and even eradicating jobs. However, it did estimate that only 26% of jobs in low-income countries will be impacted, with the bloc’s MD saying that “many of these countries don’t have the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI, raising the risk that over time the technology could worsen inequality among nations”. The study also sees lower- income and older workers falling behind, whilst there could be disproportionate wage increases in their wages for higher-income and younger workers after adopting AI.

At a parliamentary meeting, Nick Read, the Post Office’s chief executive, admitted it is a possibility the money taken from branch managers could have been part of “hefty numeration packages for executives”, and in typical bureaucratic  and dilatory fashion, and nearly twenty-five years after its introduction of the accounting system, noted that the company has still “not got to the bottom of” what happened to the cash paid by sub-postmasters and mistresses in a bid to cover the false financial black holes created by the Horizon software. Paul Patterson, director of Europe’s Fujitsu Services Limited, apologised “for our part in this appalling miscarriage of justice,” and accepted that the Japanese firm would have to pay into the redress scheme, having been involved “from the very start”. He said the company gave evidence that was used to send innocent people to prison, and while he did not know exactly when bosses first knew of issues related to Horizon, it had bugs at a “very early stage”. Not surprisingly, MPs at times appeared frustrated at the lack of answers from the two executives about who knew what and when – with the chief executive unable to say when the Post Office knew that remote access to the Horizon software was possible. Between 1999 and 2015, more than seven hundred Post Office branch managers were handed criminal convictions for theft and false accounting after discrepancies in Fujitsu’s Horizon system made it appear as though money was missing at their stores. Some went to jail, as many were financially ruined, and there have been at least four suicides linked to the scandal. The message to the bosses at the Post Office and Fujitsu is that all those you have cheated in this disgraceful and fraudulent episode are waiting for official apologies and to see you being dragged through UK courts and that we are Tired of Waiting For You!

Rich Man, Poor Man!                                                                   12 January 2024

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The real estate and properties transactions valued at US$ 2.75 billion in total during the week ending 12 January 2024. The sum of transactions was 209 plots, sold for US$ 597 million, and 2,100 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.32 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Hebiah Sixth for US$ 38 million, the second in Business Bay for US$ 29 million and in Palm Jabal Ali for US$ 13 million. Al Hebiah Fifth recorded the most transactions, with forty-four sales, worth US$ 45 million, followed by thirty-three sales, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid for US$ 109 million, and thirty sales, in Madinat Hind 4 valued at US$ 12 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were in Al Wasl for US$ 18 million, followed by one in Al Thanayah for US$ 13 million and in Al Hebiah Fourth for US$ 11 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 621 million; eighty-two properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 218 million.

CBRE estimates that properties, with a value of US$ 1.36 million (AED5 million), classified as ‘prime’ and US$ 2.72 million, (AED10 million), classified as ‘super prime’, saw 10.3k and 3.8k transactions last year – 54.5% and 68.4% higher on the year. The consultancy noted that off-plan sales accounted for 67.2% and 70.8 % of the total transaction volumes. Prime and super-prime areas are defined as Downtown Dubai, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, Palm Jumeirah and District One. Palm Jumeirah registered the highest volume of transactions in both the prime and super-prime market segments, with the total number of ‘prime’ units sold, worth more than US$ 1.36 million, standing at nine hundred and sixty-three and the total number of properties sold above US$ 2.72 million reaching five hundred and ninety-three.

In Q4, average prices within the prime and super prime segments were 22.5% higher at US$ 1.25k and by 20.4% to US$ 1.34k per sq ft The two best performers in the former sector were Jumeirah Bay Island and District One, where average prices grew by 35.6% and 27.2% year-on-year. In the latter, Jumeirah Bay Island and District One recorded the most significant increases in their average sales rates of 28.5% and 22.4%, respectively. It is expected that price rises will not be as high this year but will still reach double-digit growth because of the lack of new supply hitting the market this year – and this trend will continue into 2025 for the same reason.

Arada has launched sales of its luxury project, the Armani Beach Residences at Palm Jumeirah, with prices starting at US$ 5.72 million, US$ 8.72 million, US$ 13.90 million and US$ 16.35 million for 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-bedroom residences. The smallest two-bedroom apartment is 2.7k sq ft, while the largest presidential suite is 43.8k sq ft. The developer noted that average price per sq ft for branded residences in Dubai is US$ 963k per sq ft, and the average price on The Palm is US$ 1.33k – pricing per sq ft at Armani Beach Residences “ranges from US$ 2.18k and above”. The Sharjah-based company did not disclose the prices for the penthouses and two presidential suites. It called on the services of Japanese Pritzker-Prize-winning architect Tadao Ando to design the project comprising fifty-three residences along with the penthouses and two presidential suites. Each apartment will feature fixtures and fittings from Armani/Casa for living spaces, bathrooms and kitchens, as well as floor-to-ceiling glass facades, a circular or linear foyer (a signature Armani concept) and a terrace. Buyers will be flown to Italy to choose their design and meet Georgio Armani, who is personally involved in all of the interior design of Armani/Casa’s work. Other additions will include a resident’s spa, multipurpose function room, cigar lounge, a compact movie theatre, children’s playroom and landscaped deck area, as well as a private beach. Completion is slated for Q4 2026.

Meanwhile, Knight Frank reckons that Dubai’s prime market – including the neighbourhoods of The Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Bay Island – saw a 16% price growth in the year ending September 2023. This year, it sees growth at only 5% in the prime market, while the mainstream market is expected to grow by 3.5%. This is a big difference from the 44.4% hikes of 2021 but Dubai’s prime residential market will still be the third-fastest growing in the world this year, behind Auckland’s 10.0% and Mumbai at 5.5%. Some think that 2024’s growth will slow but still hit double-digit numbers, with the market beginning to tighten in 2025, as recent launches become realty.

With a US$ 100 million investment, Binghatti Properties has acquired a plot of land in Business Bay. The UAE property development brand already has projects in the same location, including the Bugatti Residences by Binghatti, (in partnership with the automotive brand Bugatti), Binghatti’s Burj, and Binghatti Jacob & Co Residences. To add to the developer’s portfolio of branded projects is the newly announced Mercedes-Benz Places by Binghatti in Downtown, Dubai. It is estimated that its current portfolio is in excess of US$ 5.45 billion (AED 20 billion).

Property Finder’s founder, Michael Lahyani, reckons that 2024 average property prices in Dubai will either remain steady or see smaller growth, three years into the Dubai property rally. He expects the luxury sector to see decent growth but on a slower scale than has been seen last year, driven by demand from the high-net-worth individuals and shortage of supply in the market. He noted that “our expectation is volumes to grow 15-20% and prices to remain where they are,” and that the luxury segment can continue to see a bit of growth in price in the double-digit range. The Dubai-based real estate portal also announced that it would become a minority stakeholder, with a 20% stake, in Turkiye’s Hepsiemlak, and provide advisory services, and merge its Turkish subsidiary Zingat with Hepsiemlak, a Doğan Holding company in Türkiye. This move is in line with the Dubai’s firm strategy of expanding its market share in the MENAT region.

As from Monday, 08 January Emaar Hospitality has announced the rebranding of Address Fountain Views to Address Dubai Mall, located on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Boulevard, and connected to both Dubai Mall and the recently opened Chinatown Dubai Mall. The hotel, with seven hundred and eighty-three residences and one hundred and ninety-three hotel rooms, has six restaurants, award-winning spa facilities and other world-class amenities.

In the nine months to September 2023, UAE hotels posted a 27% surge in revenue to US$ 8.77 billion, with 20.2 million guests, 12.0% higher on the year, as occupancy rates came in 6.0% higher to top 75.0%. At a meeting of the Emirates Tourism Council, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, noted that these results play an integral part in ensuring that the sector continues to contribute to the country’s target for its GDP to reach US$ 122.6 billion (AED 450 billion) by the next decade under the ‘We The UAE 2031’ vision.

For the third consecutive year, Dubai has retained its top spot as the top global destination in the 2024 TripAdvisor Travellers’ Choice Awards – the first time, in the survey’s history, that one location has achieved this accolade. Hamdan bin Rashid commented that the city’s “accomplishments in the tourism sector, once thought to be an unattainable dream, is now a tangible reality”; the Crown Prince added that “the accomplishment is due to the visionary Dubai Economic Agenda, under the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai”.

Last year, the UAE federal cabinet introduced new rules concerning the executive regulation of Federal Law No 15 of 2020 on consumer protection. Now it has come into force, with the new law imposing forty-three obligations for businesses, (both physical and online), listed in the updated law, relating to the warranty of a product, prices, invoices and replacement of products. Those companies breaking the rules could face fines of up to US$ 272k. A fine of US$ 27.2k will be imposed on the supplier in case of failure to repair, maintain, provide after-sales services, return goods or offer a refund within a certain time limit after a defect is discovered, whilst the fine could be doubled on the supplier in the event of failure to comply with standard specifications, rules and conditions of safety and health. There are also penalties for misleading advertising and anti-competitive practices. Penalties will be applied, ranging from a warning to fines, and in some instances, they could lead to licence cancellation or deregistration in the case of repeat offences.

At a meeting at his Zabeel Palace Majlis, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid lauded the efforts of Dubai’s Events Security Committee. He praised the Committee for their efforts in securing 6k events since its 2008 inception in 2008, including eight hundred last year, and highlighted the significant contribution made to the key objective of the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) to make the city one of the top three urban economies of the world. The Dubai Ruler also launched the fourth season of the domestic tourism campaign, World’s Coolest Winter 2024, which runs until 20 February. Last year, the campaign contributed US$ 490 million extra hotel revenue, 20% higher on the 2022 return.

The 29th edition of the three-day Dubai International Pharmacy Technologies Conference and Exhibition – DUPHAT 2024 – generated over US$ 2.32 billion in trade deals. DUPHAT is organised annually by INDEX Conferences and Exhibitions – a member of INDEX Holding, and is supported by Dubai Health Authority, American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology, European Federation for Pharmaceutical Sciences, European Society of Clinical Pharmacy, Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia and the European Society of Oncology Pharmacy. According to its chairman, Dr. Ali Al Sayed Hussain, “through DUPHAT, we endeavour to economically and academically support the pharmaceutical industry by cultivating partnerships among stakeholders and professionals within this sector.”

Earlier in the week, HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid announced a ministerial reshuffle in the UAE government. The first was the announcement of the appointment of Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed as Deputy Prime Minister for Financial and Economic Affairs, with him noting that “Maktoum led the Ministry of Finance ably, in addition to a range of economic and commercial issues at the local and federal levels. Moreover, he established balance in our financial policies federally and locally.” Further appointments included Mohammed Bin Mubarak Fadhel Al Mazrouei, as Minister of State for Defence Affairs and Cabinet Member, Mariam Bint Mohammed Saeed Hareb Almheiri, who led the UAE bid in COP28, as Head of the International Affairs Office at the Presidential Court, Dr Amna Bin Abdullah Al Dahhak Al Shamsi as Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Cabinet Member as well as the appointment of Sultan Al Neyadi as the UAE State Minister for Youth. Concluding his series of announcements on X, he messaged “All the best to everyone serving the country and the people. We repeat that 2024 will be a good year, and the most beautiful and greatest in the history of the UAE, God willing.”

Driven by an easing of cost pressures and a hike in new orders, December saw the seasonally adjusted S&P Global Dubai PMI nudge 0.9 higher to 57.7 – its highest level since August 2022; 50 is the threshold between expansion and contraction. The latest survey points to companies posting rapid improvements in sales and activity, while softening cost pressures allowed them to offer greater discounts to customers. Additionally, new order growth accelerated to the second quickest since mid-2019, as both the wholesale and retail sectors witnessed a marked improvement, along with travel/tourism also posting strong growth to end the year. Selling prices decreased at the fastest pace since June, as costs fell on improving supply lines and lower material prices. Improving market conditions and greater client demand drove the increase in new work, also assisted by a dip in output charges. However, overall expenses nudged higher, attributable to wage increases and higher input demand. Job creation moved to a four-month high mainly due to an expansion of operations and increased output requirements. After slipping to a seven-month low, business confidence recovered, with the level of optimism among “the strongest recorded” since before the start of the pandemic.

Dubai must have the most Guinness World Records in the world, with the latest being for building the longest Braille handrail in the world. The one, located at the Dubai Frame, is three hundred and nineteen mt long and eleven centimetres along the frame.

Dubai Investments has announced its first flagship mixed-use development in Africa – the Dubai Investment Park Angola on a 2k-hectare commercial and industrial hub and located along a three-km coastline and a two-km beach stretch. It is planned and designed in line with highlighting DI’s expertise in creating successful mixed-use developments. The agreement sees DI developing the infrastructure and then lease land to developers and investors. Located fifty km from the capital Luanda, it has a robust regional transportation network and excellent connectivity. The project is in alignment with the Ministry of Environment’s regulations and adheres to the UN’s Sustainability Goals.

In line with the 1999 UAE-Lebanon treaty, by which the latter undertook to protect investments made by Emirati entities within its borders, Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group has issued a formal notice against the country for breaching this bilateral investment treaty. The local conglomerate noted that “in particular, Lebanon and its central bank have imposed restrictions preventing Al Habtoor Group from freely transferring its funds amounting to over US$ 44 million from the Lebanese banks.” It is reported that Al Habtoor has invested around US$ 1.0 billion in the country in various projects, including funds placed within the Lebanese banking system, luxury hotels affiliated with Hilton Hotels and Resorts, a shopping mall and a 100k-square-metre leisure destination called Habtoor Land. Only last April, it announced plans to reopen a prominent five-storey mall in Beirut, which shut in March 2020 due to the “societal and economic” Covid-19 impact. The Al Habtoor statement also indicated that “Lebanon has also failed to secure a safe and sound environment for Al Habtoor Group’s businesses and investments. As a result of Lebanon’s actions, Al Habtoor Group has incurred and continues to incur significant losses and damages.”

Recent agreements see DP World entering into several preliminary deals, valued at US$ 3.0 billion dollars, with the Indian state of Gujarat, encompassing the establishment of new ports, terminals and economic zones. Under the agreements, DP World will develop multipurpose deep-draft ports in South Gujarat and around the western coast of the state. It will also develop special economic zones, cargo terminals and private freight stations in various parts of the state. It has also joined forces with Gujarat Maritime Board that could result in additional ports being developed along the coast of Gujarat. In the twenty years, it has operated in the state, the Dubai port operator has invested over US$ 2.5 billion, including projects such as a container terminal in Mundra, along with rail-connected private freight terminals at Ahmedabad and Hazira. In August 2023, it signed a US$ 510 million concession agreement with the Deendayal Port Authority, in the state, to develop, operate and maintain a new 2.19 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) per year mega-container terminal at Tuna-Tekra in Kandla.

The World Bank raised the UAE’s growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 3.7% and 3.8% from their earlier forecast of 3.4% and 3.4%, on the back of a stronger rebound in oil activity and export growth. Last month, the UAE Central Bank increased the national growth forecast by 1.4% to 5.7% due to higher oil production; it expects last year’s growth to be 3.4%, following 7.9% in 2022. For the six-country GCC bloc, growth for this year and next is forecast to be 3.6% and 3.8% – increases of 0.4% and 1.0% – driven by an increase in higher oil production. Further afield, Mena growth for the two years is forecast to be 3.5%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 08 January, 117 points (3.0%) higher the previous three weeks, gained a further 36 points (0.9%) to close the trading week on 4,104 by Friday 12 January 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.06 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.02, closing on US$ 2.12 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.80, US$ 1.58, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.75, US$ 1.59 and US$ 0.38. On 12 January, trading was at 114 million shares, with a value of US$ 68 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, on 05 January 2024.

By Friday, 12 January 2024, Brent, US$ 1.67 higher (2.2%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.61 (0.8%) to close on US$ 78.90. Gold, US$ 26 (1.4%) lower the previous week, nudged US$ 8 higher (0.4%) to trade at US$ 2,054 on 12 January 2024.

Boeing’s troubles go from bad to worse. Last week, it issued a Multi-Operator Message urging operators of the newer 737 Max planes to inspect for a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system; it wanted to ensure all 737 Max planes in service worldwide are checked for similar issues. Last Friday, an Alaskan Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 jet, with one hundred and seventy-seven on board, had reached 4.9k mt (16k ft), when a door of the plane fell off. Fortunately, the plane landed safely in Portland, (and that nobody was sitting next to the affected section). Not surprisingly, the US airline regulator has ordered the grounding of some Boeing 737 Max 9 jets saying it would affect one hundred and seventy-one planes. Boeing’s chief executive, David Calhoun indicated, at a company-wide staff meeting, that the company was approaching the incident, (some may say for a change), with “100% and complete transparency”, and should accept the fault and make amends in the wake of the recent incident.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) confirmed that there were no UK-registered 737 Max 9 aircraft but said “we have written to non-UK and foreign permit carriers to ask inspections have been undertaken prior to operation in UK airspace”. A spokesman noted that flydubai has confirmed it is not impacted by the Federal Aviation Administration’s decision to ground certain Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft after an Alaska Airlines plane was forced to make an emergency landing, and that “the three Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft in our fleet are not affected”.

Alaska Airlines had already placed restrictions on the brand new Boeing plane, only delivered last October, involved in a dramatic mid-air blowout after pressurisation warnings in the days before Friday’s incident, with investigators saying the jet had been prevented from making long-haul flights over water. Pilots had reported pressurisation warning lights on three previous flights made by the specific Alaska Airlines Max 9 involved in the incident. No-one was hurt in Friday’s drama, but it was fortunate that it was flying at 16k ft at the time, and if this had happened when it had reached 39k ft, the results would have been disastrous. On Monday, United Airlines also said it found loose bolts in its Boeing 737 Max fleet, as it carried out inspections.

The big news of the week came with the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to allow Bitcoin to be part of mainstream investing funds, having approved spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Despite this, the SEC warned “Bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that’s also used for illicit activity including ransomware, money laundering, sanction evasion, and terrorist financing,” and that investors should not mistake the new approvals for an endorsement of the currency. ETFs can be purchased by anyone from pension funds to ordinary investors, but this comes after the SEC had previously rejected many earlier requests for approvals, citing concerns about potential for fraud and manipulation. About a dozen investment companies, including Blackrock and Fidelity, have been waiting for months for the SEC to give them the green light to start buying Bitcoin for their own ETFs. It has taken some fifteen years for the traditional banking sector to take Bitcoin seriously, and their entrée into the market will see many taking advantage of cost-free banking and immediate and decentralised, people-powered alternatives. The likes of Fidelity, Blackrock and other investment companies will be able to buy Bitcoin for their own ETFs, without the bother of getting digital wallets or navigating crypto exchanges.

Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest maker of memory chips, has warned that its profits could fall by 35% in Q4, to US$ 2.13 billion, and is much worse than expected as global demand for consumer electronics remains soft along with a build-up of large stocks of the key electronic components in the wake of the pandemic. The tech giant had already reported operating profit in Q3 and Q2 had fallen by 77% and 95%.

A consumer advocacy group filed a lawsuit in the Superior Court in the District of Columbia. against Starbucks alleging the company’s claim that its coffee is ethically sourced is false and misleading. The National Consumers League cited media reports of abuses on farms that supply coffee and tea to Starbucks, and that the labelling – the company is “committed to 100 per cent ethical coffee sourcing” – on its packaging may not be entirely correct. The group said the cases cast doubt on Starbucks’ packaging, which states that the company is “committed to 100% ethical coffee sourcing.” Another incident cited involved a 2022 lawsuit in which police rescued seventeen workers, from a coffee farm in Brazil where they were made to work outdoors, without protective equipment, and lift 130 lb sacks of coffee. It is estimated that the coffee retailer handles around 3% of the global coffee from some 400k farmers in thirty countries. The NCL is asking the court to stop Starbucks from engaging in deceptive advertising and require it to run a corrective ad campaign.

As part of sweeping changes to streamline operations, introduced by its supremo Jane Fraser last year, Citigroup plans to cut 20k jobs – over 10% of its global staff – by the end of 2025. The US bank, which posted a US$ 1.8 billion Q4 loss, has already hived off some of its overseas operations and moved to list its Mexican unit as a standalone firm. The bank, with a current workforce of around 230k, employs more than 16k people in the UK, but details of job losses there are still to be released. Reorganisation costs include US$ 800 million provided for in Q4, with a further US$ 1.0 billion expected this year, with annual savings of US$ 2.5 billion expected in the medium term. Although 2022 revenue rose 4.0% to US$ 78.5 billion, profits tanked 38% to US$ 9.2 billion, compared to the likes of Wells Fargo and JP Morgan posting revenue increases of 11% and 23% to US$ 82.5 billion and US$ 158 billion, along with profits up 40% and 30% respectively.

EVs are becoming increasingly popular in Australia, with sales more than doubling last year to 87.2k units, with its market share rising to 7.2% from 3.1% in 2022. Hybrid vehicle sales were higher, making up 8.1%, (7.6% a year earlier), of the car market, whilst electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 196.9k sales overall, which is 16.2% of the market. This sector of the market will continue to grow, with more EVs, (and charging stations), being made available and prices falling; some point to the rising price of petrol has led to a move to EVs. There is little doubt that 2024 will be the year that EV sales will continue to double on number and will surpass those of hybrids. Despite the hike in sales, it is estimated that Australia is still two times behind other major markets around the world and that a bigger variety of EV models, along with more modern infrastructure, including readily available and reliable charging stations, were needed to ensure sales continued increasing during the coming years. It is reported that last year, car production and sales in China topped a record thirty million.

To the surprise of many, the world’s third largest auto maker by sales is Vietnam’s VinFast which plans to spend up to US$ 2 billion to build an electric vehicle factory in India, the world’s third-largest auto market by sales. This follows the carmaker’s first Indian entrée, after establishing the brand in the US and other major international markets. Initial investment is set at US$ 500 million, with plans to transform the region around port city of Thootukudi into a “first-class electric vehicle production hub,” with annual production capacity at 150k vehicles. It has already expended US$ 4.0 billion to build an EV factory in North Carolina and plans a further US$ 400 million capex in Indonesia to build an electric vehicle factory. It aims to be selling in fifty markets worldwide by the end of 2024. Since 2009, China, the world’s top selling country, has beaten the US in car sales. According to China’s Economic Daily, this significant leap forward signifies a major turning point for the industry, paving the way for further growth and innovation; it also demonstrates the industry’s resilience, vast potential and the power of China’s massive market.

Last month, the US State Department approved a US$ 300 million sale of equipment to help maintain Taiwan’s tactical information systems. Consequently, China, which sees democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, has announced sanctions on five Western defence firms over the latest round of US arms sales to Taiwan, views democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, were “in response to these gravely wrong actions taken by the US”. The five “casualties” were BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat and Data Link Solutions. These sanctions include freezing the assets of the companies and to ban people and organisations in China from engaging them. In his annual New Year’s Eve address, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his claim that Taiwan would “surely be reunified” with China, and noted that Taiwan, with a twenty-three million population, being part of the “same family”.

After a twenty-seven-year partnership, Tiger Woods and Nike have ended their long-term partnership, with the sportswear giant noting that it had been an honour to partner with “one of the greatest athletes the world has ever seen”. When he turned professional, at the age of twenty, in 1996, the golfer signed a five-year US$ 40 million deal and signed multiple further deals with Nike over his career, including a ten-year contract in 2013, worth a reported US$ 200 million. The partnership has proved to be one of the most lucrative in sports history, as fifteen-time major golf champion dominated the world of golf for more than a decade to put him second on the list of men’s major champions, three behind Jack Nicklaus. One study concluded that between 2000 and 2010, Nike recovered 57% of its US$ 181 million investment in Woods in sales of golf balls in the US alone. golfer After years of falling sales, the company stopped selling clubs, bags and balls and shifted its focus into golf footwear and clothes, which included sponsorship deals for another big name in four-time major winner Rory McIlroy. The writing was on the wall when Woods then started playing with Bridgestone golf balls and using TaylorMade clubs.

BBC Panorama has claimed that fast-fashion firm Boohoo put “Made in the UK” labels on potentially thousands of clothes that were actually made in South Asia. The Leicester factory evidently removed the original labels from clothing, including T-shirts and hoodies, shipped from Pakistan and other countries in South Asia, with the factory saying the incorrect labels were down to a misinterpretation of the labelling rules, that took place in the first ten months of 2023. The Thurmaston Lane factory opened two years ago and was promoted by the retailer as a UK manufacturing centre of excellence, offering end-to-end garment production in the UK.

There was a surprise 0.3% rise in US December consumer prices to 3.4%, mainly attributable to higher costs for housing, dining out and car insurance. It is an indicator that inflation is not slowing as quickly as many analysts had expected and may be a precursor that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates at least for the next two months. However, overall, it is heading lower and is well down on the June 2022 9.1% peak. Some products rose at higher rates on the year – car insurance, (20%), some food items, including steak (11%), rents climbed 6.5%, and dining out (5.2%); in contrast, grocery prices were only 1.3% higher, which compares to a 5.2% rise in prices for people choosing to dine out.

Sir Jonathan Thompson, Executive Chair of High Speed 2, confirmed that the London to Birmingham stretch of the HS2 railway could cost more than US$ 83.0 billion in current prices. He added that a rise in the cost of materials, such as concrete and steel, over the past few years have added between US$ 10.21 billion – US$ 12.77 billion. He disagrees with the government’s latest estimate that reckons the project should be delivered at the lower end of US$ 57.45 billion – US$ 68.94 billion. The HS2 supremo said the budget given for the overall programme had been too low to begin with, and that “the cost of delivery is more than the government budgeted, and that is before you begin to account for the extraordinary construction inflation over the last three years or so.”

Many, especially those struggling to get on the housing ladder, will disagree with the comments of the NatWest chairman, Sir Howard Davies, who receives an annual sum of US$ 975k for his labours. Reportedly, he has claimed it is not “that difficult” for people to get on the property ladder in the UK, and that some found it hard to “start the process”, aspiring homeowners “have to save and that is the way it always used to be”. Belatedly, he did concede that he “did not intend to underplay the serious challenges” people face when buying a home. Data shows that over the period 2004 – 2017, UK home ownership declined from 71% to 65%, as house prices headed higher. Such people, like the noble knight, should remember that saving for a home can be a real struggle for so many less fortunate and impossible for an increasing number of the population struggling in this cost-of-living crisis.

According to the Drewry World Container Index, charges for transporting a 40 ft container from China to Europe, via the Red Sea, have surged to about US$ 4k, since Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking commercial shipping only seven weeks ago; data shows that since 21 November 2023, when the attacks started, freight rates have surged 248% from US$ 1.15k, and 140% from US$ 1.17k on  23 December  There are concerns that if the disruption continues, it will result in higher inflation globally. Estimates indicate that these higher rates could add as much as US$ 720k on the cost of each journey, and over US$ 1.0 million for an ultra-large boxship aa operated by the likes of MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, and Asia-based Cosco Shipping, HMM and Evergreen Line, along with oil and gas tanker operators. There are other factors pushing prices higher, including higher ancillary costs, such as surcharges and insurance, (the cost of war risk insurance has doubled in the past week), and as well as a panic in China, owing to fears of insufficient shipping capacity to transport products before the Chinese New Year holiday. It is estimated that port-to-port container rates on the Asia-Europe trade were up 130% compared to early November. The Red Sea carries an estimated nine million bpd of oil shipments, (equating to almost 10% of global demand), 33% of global container traffic and around 12% of global goods trade. The route is a major contributor to Egypt’s already faltering economy, with around 1.5k ships passing through the Suez Canal every month, generating US$ 9.4 billion last fiscal year; little wonder that the El-Sisi government is “anxious to protect this crucial source of income”.

More than seven hundred sub-postmasters were prosecuted by the Post Office after faulty Fujitsu software made it look like money was missing – and presumed stolen by the guardians. Between 1999 to 2015, the Post Office accused about 3.5k operators of theft, fraud and false accounting based on information from its Horizon IT system installed in the late 1990s. By 2010, it is reported that the Post Office knew that there were faults in the software and should have taken action there and then but turned a blind eye to the problem. Sub-postmasters complained about bugs in the system after it falsely reported shortfalls – often for many thousands of pounds. Some attempted to plug the gap with their own money, as their contracts stated they were responsible for any shortfalls. Many faced bankruptcy or lost their livelihoods as a result, whilst some went to prison for false accounting and theft. After twenty years, campaigners won a legal battle to have their cases reconsidered, but to date only ninety-three convictions have been overturned.

It is reported that the Post Office has paid Fujitsu more than US$ 121 million to extend the troubled Horizon IT system for two years after a plan to move to Amazon had to be abandoned, as costs and delays still make its Horizon project unreliable and difficult to operate. In 2005, the Japanese IT firm had won the contract to install computer terminals in over 17k Post Office branches around the UK, it called it “the biggest non-military IT project in Europe”. It is still in use and although designed to automate and simplify everything from selling stamps to paying pensions, it has failed miserably and is held responsible for one of the most widespread miscarriages of justice in British history.

In its latest report, the World Bank has warned that the global economy is set to grow at its slowest pace – 0.2% lower on the year at 2.4% – since the pandemic, driven by higher interest rates and by conflicts in Ukraine and the ME; notwithstanding the pandemic, this would be the lowest since 2009. Unfortunately, and as usual, many developing countries will be worst affected not helped by high levels of debt and limited access to food; this could impact over a third of the world’s 8.1 billion population. The higher cost of borrowing money continues to slow the global economy, making it more expensive for the world’s seventy-five poorest countries to raise much needed finance. The World Bank estimates that “at the end of 2024 we project that all advanced economies will have a per capita income that is higher than what they had before Covid but that the average income of an individual in an emerging economy will be 75% of the pre-covid level, while it could be as low as 66% in the poorest countries. Overall, the World Bank is forecasting that the five years to the end of 2024 will add up to the slowest half decade of global economic growth in thirty years. Rich Man, Poor Man!

    Takin’ Care Of Business!                                                              05 January 2024

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The real estate and properties transactions valued at US$ 5.81 billion in total during the week ending 05 January 2024. The sum of transactions was 114 plots, sold for US$ 371 million, and 1,721 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.58 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Thanyah Fifth for US$ 73 million, the second in Warsan Fourth for US$ 31 million and in Palm Jabal Ali for US$ 18 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with eighteen sales, worth US$ 6 million, followed by eleven sales, in Palm Jabal Ali for US$ 85 million, and eight sales, in Saih Shuaib 1, valued at US$ 4 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were in Al Thanyah First for US$ 17 million, followed by two in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 17 million and for US$ 15 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 212 million, with the highest being for land in Al Hamriyah, mortgaged for US$ 34 million; ninety-eight properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 168 million.

Arada has purchased a 138.5k sq ft plot of land in Zabeel 2, for US$ 163 million, with plans to build a fifty-floor luxury residential tower on the land, containing four hundred apartments. The Sharjah property developer purchased the land from Rital Properties, the real estate subsidiary of Emirates NBD. Last year, it announced a partnership with the Armani Group and Japanese architect Tadao Ando to build the ultra-luxury Armani Beach Residences on The Palm Jumeirah and has indicated that there will be another property launch in Q1. In H1 2023, it posted a 186% surge in annual sales, of 1.6k units, to US$ 1.16 billion, including 169 villas in Jouri Hills, valued at US$ 335 million (In addition to its project pipeline in Dubai, it has three master-planned communities in the Northern Emirates, valued at US$ 9.0 billion in total, including Aljada, a mixed-use development in Sharjah.

US$ 163 million could find you owning one of Dubai’s largest penthouses. Encompassing 77.7k sq ft – and spread across three levels and the rooftop – R1 at Raffles The Palm Dubai is an eight-bedroom property with its own indoor and outdoor cinema, gym and basketball court, along with other add-ons such as a spa and wellness area that includes a cryogenic room, an outdoor swimming pool, a bar and barbecue area, a mini golf course in a meditation garden, a cigar lounge and a bar offering 360-degree views of the Arabian Gulf. The owner of the project, Emerald Palace Group, confirmed the property also includes a central terrace area that can entertain hundreds of guests, and that the handover term for the penthouse is fifteen months from the date of booking. To date, the most expensive penthouse, at Como Residences, on Palm Jumeirah sold for US$ 136 million, (AED 500 million); it will be handed over in Q3 2027.

Last year, the total number of deals, totalling one hundred and seventeen and valued at over US$ 272 million, in Burj Khalifa rose by 22%. However, Knight Frank estimates that the total number of homes available in the world’s tallest building declined by 52% in 2023 – an indicator that there is a growing number of long-term investors and genuine end users. The tower, accounting for 7% of all sales in Downtown, has one hundred and sixty habitable levels – the most of any building in the world. The consultancy noted that the most expensive home in the building was “trading for 140% more than 2022.” And that Burj Khalifa prices have grown by 55.4% since March 2021, compared to the 38.0% increase in average city-wide prices. Forty-five branded residential units were sold during 2023 with the most expensive going for US$ 9 million, covering 8.8k sq ft.

Lottery operators in the UAE have been instructed to pause their business, inside the country, as from 01 January, because of an “industry-wide mandate consistent with the regulators’ new role to create a well-regulated gaming environment”. Companies such as Mahooz, Emirates Draw, Big Ticket and Dubai Duty Free have been impacted, although it appears that the last two are still selling tickets, with Big Ticket noting that “you can still buy your lucky ticket from our website or Abu Dhabi International Airport and Al Ain Airport counters,” and DDF continuing to sell tickets, and lists on its website two sold-out draws due to take place on Wednesday.

Dubai Duty Free also offers a raffle where participants can purchase multiple tickets across three raffle categories:

• Millennium Millionaire raffle, which costs US$ 272k, (AED 1k), per ticket and is limited to 5k tickets, making it a one in 5k chance of winning US$ 1.0 million per ticket bought
• Finest Surprise Car raffle costing US$ 136k (AED 500), with only 2.5k tickets available
• Finest Surprise Bike raffle will cost players Dh500 per ticket, with only 1.2k tickets available

Surprisingly eight players have won more than once.

With figures 24.5% higher on the year – and up 6.4% on pre-pandemic 2019 – Dubai Duty Free posted a record US$ 2.16 billion in sales in 2023, with December sales of US$ 221 million, another record number, 8.4% higher than a year earlier. In 2023, DDF registered over twenty million sales transactions, (averaging 55k daily), with a staggering 55.2 million units of merchandise sold; online sales accounted for 2.0% of total sales, with departures and arrivals accounting for 90% and 8%. The top five selling categories were perfumes (US$ 372 million), liquor (US$ 307 million), gold (US$ 211 million), cigarettes/tobacco (US$ 203 million) and electronics (US$ 171 million). The top source markets for sales were India (US$ 265 million), Russia (US$ 207 million), China (US$ 154 million), Saudi Arabia (US$ 140 million), and the UK (US$ 102 million). Its workforce numbers have risen to 5.5k.

After a price falls over the previous two months, the UAE Fuel Price Committee again decreased all retail fuel prices again for January. Eight years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee. In March 2021, prices were amended to reflect the movement of the market once again, as December retail prices all head south:

The breakdown in fuel price per litre for January is as follows:

• Super 98: US$ 0.768, from US$ 0.807 in December (down by 4.7%)

• Special 95: US$ 0.738, from US$ 0.777 in December (drop of 4.9%),

• Diesel: US$ 0.817, from US$ 0.869 in December (down by 5.9%), 3.01%

• E-plus 91: US$ 0.719, from US$ 0.755 in December (decline of 4.6%)

The latest MUFG report expects the UAE to retain its growth momentum, led by the “triple T” whammy of trade, transport, and tourism, aided and abetted by a surging population growth. The country will also benefit from the fact that it already has a well-established infrastructure, a well-oiled bureaucracy, and a dynamic/progressive government. It expects 2024 GDP growth to be 0.6% higher than 2023’s 3.4%, with the UAE economy expected to grow 5.5% to US$ 536.8 billion and by 4.5% in 2025 to US$ 561.2 billion. MUFG expects the country’s GDP per capita to rise by 3.6% and 6.3% over the next two years to US$ 52.4k and US$ 53.8k in 2025. 2024 growth levels – 5.7% and 4.0% – are forecast by the IMF and UAE Central Bank respectively. It also noted that since there had been a marked increase in capital spending awards over the past two years, the government has no financing needs over the next two years, which will result in healthy surpluses, as well as significant cash excess. Any bonds maturing over the next two years should be settled via the expected surpluses.

Under a new law issued by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Dubai has set up Parkin to oversee car park operations which will allow the public to own shares – via public or private subscription – with the proviso that the ownership percentage of the Dubai government “must not fall below 60%” of the company’s capital when its shares are offered; the Executive Council will determine this percentage. The public joint stock company, operating under a renewable ninety-nine-year mandate, will be responsible for creating, planning, designing, operating and managing public parking spaces. The new law stipulates that the RTA will delegate responsibilities related to public and private parking, and this handover of duties is to be reached by a franchise agreement to be finalised between the authority and Parkin which will be responsible for issuing permits to individuals. Its other assignments will include establishing, designing and managing private parking spaces, as well as investment in related business activities.  Salik is one of five government-related companies listed on the Dubai Financial Market bourse, along with DEWA, Tecom, Empower and Dubai Taxi Company, in a 2021 government strategy to list ten state-owned companies to increase the size of Dubai’s financial market to US$ 817.4 billion, (AED 3 trillion), as well as to set up a US$ 545 billion marketmaker fund to encourage the listing of more private companies from sectors such as energy, logistics and retail.

e& has terminated negotiations to raise its stake in Saudi Arabia’s Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) from its current 27.99% stake to 50% and one share; it had earlier made an offer to raise its stake and suggested a price of US$ 12.53 per share. The UAE telecoms group commented that “following a period of engagement, a way forward to conclude the potential transaction could not be determined. Hence, e& has now decided not to pursue the financial transaction.” Despite all this, e&, Mobily’s major shareholder, noted that it remains positive about the Saudi Telecom’s future.

The   Central Bank of the UAE noted a 9.6% hike, (US$ 3.13 billion), in insurance sector assets in the first nine months of 2023, topping US$ 35.86 billion; in Q3, growth was US$ 1.06 billion, (up 3.5%), to US$ 34.80 billion. In 2021, the country continued its position as the leading Arab insurance market in terms of total subscribed premiums, whilst climbing one place to become the thirty-seventh in the world, according to Swiss Re Insurance Institutes’ Sigma. The UAE was also the leading GCC country, having the highest share of the total value of real estate deals in the ten months to October – more than in the twelve months of 2022.

R.J. O’Brien (MENA) Capital Limited has been fined US$ 1.36 million by the Dubai Financial Services Authority for numerous breaches of DFSA legislation, mainly for inadequate compliance systems and controls. The brokerage firm was initially penalised US$ 2.72 million for the offences but this was reduced after the firm agreed to rectify the failings and settle the matter. The regulatory watchdog noted that “the firm’s senior management was aware of the lack of compliance resources and failed to adequately address it to ensure that the compliance function was able to fulfil its regulatory obligations.” However, there was no evidence that the firm acted deliberately to violate the DFSA’s rules and regulations.

The DFM opened the week, and the new year, on Tuesday 02 January, 94 points (2.2%) higher the previous fortnight, gained a further 23 points (0.6%) to close the trading week on 4,068 by Friday 05 January 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.15 higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 0.06, closing on US$ 2.10 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.80, US$ 1.58 and US$ 0.38. On 05 January, trading was at 62 million shares, with a value of US$ 54 million, compared to 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, on 29 December 2023.

By Friday, 05 January 2024, Brent, US$ 1.94 lower (2.5%) the previous week, gained US$ 1.67 (2.2%) to close on US$ 78.90. Gold, US$ 36 (1.6%) higher the previous fortnight, shed US$ 26 (1.4%) to trade at US$ 2,046 on 05 January 2024.

In Q4, BYD noted that it had sold more electric vehicles than Tesla – 526k EVs to 484.5k units, with Tesla still the leading manufacturer for the twelve months last year, selling 1.8 million; the US company was hoping for annual sales in the region of two million, but were still 20% higher when compared to 2022. Although the Chinese interloper sold more than three million new energy vehicles, around 1.6 million were battery-only vehicles and the balance hybrids. The Shenzhen-based EV-maker, founded in 1995 by Wang Chuanfu, started life as a manufacturer of rechargeable batteries – used in smartphones, laptops and other electronics. It started trading its shares on the stock market in 2002 and diversified by purchasing a struggling state-owned car manufacturer, Qinchuan Automobile Company. BYD’s battery business has helped give it flexibility to cut its EV prices sharply at the end of 2023, lifting sales, which jumped by 70% in December alone; batteries are probably the most expensive part in any EV and BYD is one of the top manufacturers that make them in-house, reducing their costs markedly.

More bad news for Tesla sees it recalling more than 1.6 million vehicles in China over issues with steering software and door-locking systems, with the problem being fixed by remote updates to software. This comes less than a month after the carmaker recalled two million vehicles in the US, and eight months after China said more than a million of its vehicles may have acceleration and braking system issues. Tesla will release an over-the-air software update for a total of 1,610,105 vehicles, including imported Models S and X and the China-made Models 3 and Y cars made from 2014 to 2023.

New data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders indicates that demand growth for EVs in the UK has flatlined, having seen cars sold reach record levels last year, but their share of the market did not increase; this is the first time that EVs failed to improve market share since 2018. These disappointing figures have again seen the calls for tax cuts to boost uptake among buyers, and at a time the overall market for new cars is growing rapidly, with 1.9 million vehicles registered in 2023 – almost 18% more than a year earlier. However, there was a 0.1% dip to 16.5% to 315k, in the EV share of the market.

After an Irish High Court ruling banned screen scraper Flightbox from gathering Ryanair flight information for online travel agents, several larger sites such as Booking.com, Kiwi and Kayak suddenly removed the budget airline’s flights in December. Ryanair retaliated by taking its flights off their platforms without warning, noting that the websites’ removal of flights would increase empty seats by 1% or 2% in December and January, and said it would respond by lowering fares for passengers booking directly through its own website. Describing these online agents as “pirates”, Ryanair said it would “continue to make its fares available to honest/transparent online travel agents such as Google Flights,” which it said, “do not add hidden mark ups to Ryanair prices and who direct passengers to make their bookings directly on the Ryanair.com website”. In the half year to 30 September 2023, passenger numbers rose 11% to a record 105.4 million, despite average fares rising by 24%, resulting in profits almost 60% higher at US$ 2.38 billion. It flew 12.5 million passengers in December, up 9% from the same period in 2022, despite more than nine hundred flights being cancelled due to the war in Gaza.

In consultation with the Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing has issued a Multi-Operator Message urging operators of the newer 737 Max planes to inspect for a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system. This comes after an international operator discovered a bolt, with a missing nut, while performing routine maintenance. The US plane maker confirmed that the aircraft, with the missing part, was fixed, but for safety’s sake wanted to ensure all 737 Max planes in service worldwide are checked for similar issues. flydubai noted that it was conducting voluntary inspections to assess any implications this may have on its 737 Max fleet.

Germany won the UK Christmas supermarket war, with both Aldi and Lidl posting “record” festive trading, with the former, with over 1k outlets, confirming that sales jumped over 8.0% to top US$ 1.90 billion, and Lidl noting that 2023 was its best Christmas yet since it entered the UK market in 1994; in 2023, it had seen UK sales 12.0% higher. There is no doubt that, although there has been a decrease in the cost of living, households still face pressure from higher food costs, and this put these two discount supermarkets in prime position.

Zhongzhi Enterprise Group has filed for bankruptcy on the grounds it was unable to pay its debts, and two months after Chinese officials had launched an investigation into “suspected illegal crimes” against the shadow bank that had lent billions to real estate firms and developers. It had earlier notified investors that its liabilities – up to US$ 64 billion – had outstripped its assets, now estimated at about US$ 38 billion. Shadow banking, a form of informal lending, is unregulated and is not subject to the same kinds of risk, liquidity and capital restrictions as traditional banks; the sector is valued at US$ 3.0 trillion. At its peak, ZEG’s asset management arm reportedly handled more than US$ 139 billion and there are concerns that financial troubles at ZEG, and other similar entities, could – and probably will – impact on China’s economy.

Last January, Hindenburg Research alleged fraud against billionaire Gautam Adani’s companies. involving “brazen” stock manipulation and accounting fraud. In March, the court set up a committee to oversee an investigation by India’s market regulator into the allegations, and within two months, the regulator notified that it had so far “drawn a blank” in the inquiry. Despite being requested to set up a new panel, this has been rejected by India’s top court which has called for the regulator to finish its investigation within three months. Hindenburg – which specialises in “short-selling – accused Mr Adani of “pulling the largest con in corporate history”. Petitioners had alleged that India’s market watchdog was not doing a proper job, and that there was a “conflict of interest” among some members in the court-appointed panel. The report questioned the Adani Group’s ownership of companies in offshore tax havens, such as Mauritius and the Caribbean, as well as claiming that Adani companies had “substantial debt” which put the entire group on a “precarious financial footing”. Mr Adani is among the richest people in the world and is perceived as being close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has long faced allegations from opposition politicians that he has benefited from his political ties, which he and Mr Modi’s party deny.

Despite his legal problems, Adani remains the richest person in Asia, surpassing Mukesh Ambani with his net worth at US$ 97.6 billion. However, Elon Musk is again the wealthiest person in the world, with a net worth of US$ 229 billion, having added US$ 92.0 billion in 2023. However, Bloomberg lists Musk’s cash holding as US$ 0, with his private assets including SpaceX, The Boring Company and X Corp valued at US$ 53.2 billion, US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 53.2 million; his one publicly listed asset is Tesla, valued at US$ 102 billion.

New President, Javier Milei, has withdrawn Argentina from its planned entry into the expanding Brics club of nations, advising the bloc that decisions taken by the preceding government had been revised. It would have been admitted to the Brics club on 01 January, alongside Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE but he said in his letter that his government’s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government”; he said that although he did not consider it “appropriate” for Argentina to become a full Brics member, he was still committed to strengthening bilateral ties, particularly with the aim of increasing trade and investment flows. The country, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, continues to be blighted by inflation, with prices rising by about 150% on the year, not being helped by low cash reserves and high government debt; the president has already devalued the country’s currency by more than 50%.

Going into 2024, Australia is facing a major housing crisis, with the main reason being the stark reality that housing is ultra-expensive – the average property now costs about nine times an ordinary household’s income, triple what it was as at the turn of the century, with Sydney now the second least affordable city in the world, behind Hong Kong. Those who live in the country’s main cities, that account for 75% of the country‘s 26.4 million population, are particularly impacted. Recently, the boss of ANZ, Shayne Elliott, commented that home loans had become “the preserve of the rich”. Even though the ownership level has been around 67% for many years, there has been a marked decline for the younger generation. Apart from prices skyrocketing, even those who could scrape into the mortgage market have been impacted not only by soaring rates, but a shortage of available property, not helped by the fact that one in three homeowners now own a property other than the one they live in. Furthermore, the arrival of 500k new immigrants last year only exacerbated the housing problem that sees millions of people trapped in the rental market, where vacancies are at unprecedented, prolonged lows and prices continue to move inexorably north. The crisis is tipping people into homelessness or overcrowded living conditions, and there are reports that demand for housing support is so high that some charities say they’ve been handing out tents.

The Albanese government has introduced measures to help prospective buyers and renters, including a promise to build thousands of new social and affordable houses and set up an investment fund to support future projects; it has pledged to create a National Housing and Homelessness Plan and beef up protections for renters. It has also promised to halve t country’s immigration intake and triple the fees for foreign homebuyers. These measures are indeed welcome but whether they have such an impact on improving this dire situation is highly unlikely.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation posted that December food prices fell 10.1% on the year, as the prices of most commodities declined, helping to ease concerns over global food inflation, with the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of commodities, averaged 118.5 during the month, and 1.5 lower on the month. Most commodities – including meat, dairy, cereals and vegetable oils – fell but those of sugar, dairy and cereals increased. The index recorded 124 points over the entire year, 13.7 per cent lower than the average value recorded in 2022, and 1.7’s in 2021, but still higher than the 98.1in 2020.

RedBird IMI consortium, the Abu Dhabi-backed bidder for the Daily and Sunday Telegraph, has confirmed that journalists will be given total editorial freedom, backed by legally binding agreements. It also posted that an independent editorial trust board will further protect the Telegraph’s editorial independence. Despite providing 75% of the money, Jeff Zucker, who is leading the bid, and will become the chief executive, insists the UAE will remain a “passive investor”, with no influence over editorial decisions; he also insisted that his investment firm would be a responsible owner of the titles. The decision will ultimately fall to the UK Culture and Media Secretary, Lucy Frazer, either to let it go ahead, require further guarantees or amendments, or block it outright; a decision is expected next month.

In December, US employers added 216k jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%, driven by increased government hiring. There was limited growth in sectors such as retail, financial activities and leisure and hospitality, which includes bars, restaurants and the arts, and has yet to recover to pre-pandemic employment levels. The latest figures have extended one of the strongest runs of job creation, and with this unexpectedly strong data being a sign that the economy continues to defy forecasts of a slowdown – and another month that forecasters have been proved wrong by them expecting job losses as higher borrowing costs slowed the economy. Average hourly earnings in December were 4.1% higher on the year. Last year, the US added 2.7 million jobs, lower than the boom of 4.8 million in 2022 and 6.4 million in 2021, but a faster pace than pre-pandemic years. These figures reduce the chances of an early Fed interest rate cut, but there is no doubt that global central banks are set to cut interest rates as from Q2, as inflation continues to fall amid the easing of oil and gas and food prices, as the US Federal Reserve, having made “clear progress” in bringing down inflation towards its 2% target.

S&P Global/CIPS UK noted that, for the seventeenth consecutive month it has been below the 50 threshold, the manufacturing PMI weakened 1.0, on the month, to 46.2; output, new orders and employment all headed south, as business dipped to a twelve-month low. Two of the main drivers continue to be client closures and high interest rates. Although “UK manufacturing output contracted at an increased rate at the end of 2023”, “the demand backdrop also remains frosty, with new orders sinking further, as conditions remain tough in both the domestic market and in key export markets, notably the EU”. If there is any good news, it is that it has resulted in a marked improvement on supply chains, with suppliers reducing prices for raw materials and vendor lead times showing a further improvement. Job losses were recorded for the fifteenth month in a row,  part due to redundancies and hiring freezes in the sector.

Yorkshire Building Society said around 290k first-time property owners entered the mortgage market in 2023 – a 20%+ decline on 2022’s total of 370.2k – the triple drivers being increases in mortgage rates and property prices, as well as the impact of the cost-of-living expense crisis. With factors appearing to be improving, analysts expect conditions for buyers to improve this year, with expectations that mortgage rates will dip, (but not as quickly as many may hope), in 2024, with the same applying to inflation rates. A further plus is that many expect house prices to fall. UK’s third largest building society also said the overall number of property buyers decreased at an even more severe rate last year, meaning the proportion of first-time buyers rose to 54% of the total – up from 53% in 2022.

Other mortgage lenders also started the year by cutting rates, with the UK’s biggest lender, the Halifax, dropping some interest rates by close to one percentage point, followed by HSBC

posting cuts in what it described as being in as a “fast-moving market”. Halifax is reducing its rates, with interest on a two-year fixed deal being cut by up to 0.83%, with HSBC with a two-year fixed rate for remortgages (for someone with at least 40% equity in their home) falling below 4.5% for the first time since last June. However, the two caveats that lenders should be aware of – banks do not generally reduce all of the products by the same amount and that mortgage rates will remain higher than many people expect. It is forecast that some 1.6 million homeowners will see their current fixed-rate deal expire over the next twelve months, the vast majority of whom could see their monthly repayments rise quite sharply.

Prior to the PDC World Darts Championship, he had earned less than US$ 3k, and was an unknown entity in the sport, now sixteen-year old Luke “The Nuke” Littler is US$ 255k richer and has become one of its biggest names. He has a bright future ahead of him and could earn millions, through sponsorships and endorsements, even though money in darts is not as lucrative as in other individual sports. He already has nearly 700k followers on Instagram. There should be no shortage of offers from fast food companies or offers for book deals or documentaries in the future, and his youthful, unpretentious and normal attitude has already opened doors for TV appearances. His success will see darts attract a younger audience, which will benefit the sport in general, widening its global appeal, and see him become the most recognisable player in darts. The Nuke’s success is similar to that of tennis player, Emma Raducanu – who won US$ 2.5 million for winning the 2021 US Open – but has since earned millions on top from sponsorship.

The High Pay Centre claimed that by lunchtime yesterday, 04 January 2024, bosses of Britain’s biggest companies had made more money in 2024 than the US$ 44.5k the typical worker will have earned by 31 December 2024. The study indicated that, including pensions, top bosses’ average reward amounts to US$ 4.85 million per year, equating to US$ 1.49k per hour – 109 times the average full-time worker. It seems that top City lawyers will reach that figure by 12 January, but leading bankers will only reach that figure by 17 January but that executives at companies listed on the bigger FTSE 350, with a median pay of US$ 1.68 million, will need to work until 10 January for their pay to overtake the annual pay of the typical UK worker. Little wonder that the Trades Union Congress, which represents forty-eight member unions, said the figures were a sign that the UK faced “obscene levels of pay inequality”. However, it is noted that the median pay for US S&P supremos comes in a lot higher at more than US$ 14 million. Maybe that is the going rate for Takin’ Care Of Business!

Nothing New                                                           29 December 2023

The real estate and properties transactions valued at US$ 3.81 billion in total during the week ending 29 December 2023. The sum of transactions was 216 plots, sold for US$ 1.19 billion, and 2,126 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.47 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Zaabeel Second for US$ 662 million, the second in Al Thanyah Fifth for US$ 124 million and in Wadi Al Safa 4 for US$ 58 million. Madinat Hind 4 recorded the most transactions, with thirty-four sales, worth US$ 14 million, followed by thirty-two sales, in Palm Jabal Ali for US$ 250 million, and twenty-five sales, in Al Hebiah Fifth, valued at US$ 32 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were in Business Bay for US$ 97 million, followed by one in Al Barsha First for US$ 41 million and the third in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 36 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 864 million, with the highest being for land in Zaabeel Second, mortgaged for US$ 163 million; two hundred and three properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 545 million.

In many locations, the end of 2023 has seen Dubai property prices at all-time highs. Looking to next year, it seems inevitable that prices – both rents and sales – will continue to head north, albeit as a slower pace, but probably still at double-digit levels. The recent trend of higher rents pushing more people into actually purchasing their own property will continue into the new year. However, the inflated cost of living expenses, along with historically high mortgage rates, will see many either downsizing or moving further out of the metropolis to get the same size residence at a cheaper level. It is just a fact of life that when property prices go too high, people have not too many alternatives but to downsize. 2024 will see even more launches, particularly at the lower end of the market. Prices in locations such as Arjan, Dubai South, JVC, Reem and Townsquare offer bigger homes, at lower prices, than found in central and prime areas.

Another feature that has become more prevalent since the pandemic is the rise in upgrading, and even extending, of existing homes; this has two consequences – an increase in the property value and also a bigger built-up area to live in. However, there are reports that costs in this sector have more than doubled since the pandemic and in several cases quality levels have fallen.

Data indicates that that more first-time buyers, (both newcomers to the emirate as well as current residents), moving from rent to entering the Dubai property market), and this can only be a positive sign for local realty. In some cases, and despite mortgage rates, hovering around the 6% level, it is more economical buying rather than renting. Many of these entrants are looking at properties, (both smaller townhouses and apartments up to the US$ 817k level), which account for over 70% of the Dubai market total.

Over the past four years, the average number of new units added to Dubai’s property portfolio every year has been around 42k. At the beginning of every year, the “experts” come out and predict that up to 70k units will be added in the new year. One fact to remember is that by the end of 2024, Dubai’s population will have grown by some 150k and basing that the average unit will house 4.3 persons, that will account for almost 35k new units required. So even if 50k new units hit the market in 2024, there will still be a problem with demand outstripping supply. It will only be in 2025 before any sort of equilibrium returns to the market when most of the 2022 launches become reality. During the pandemic there were very few, if any, launches and most will take up to three years from planning to handover.

Abu Dhabi National Hotels and Emaar Hospitality Group have agreed to transition the management of five of Emaar’s Dubai hotels – Address Boulevard, Address Dubai Mall, Address Dubai Marina, Vida Downtown and Manzil Downtown – effective 01 January 2024. All five properties will be directly managed by ADNH on a franchise model under other luxury international hotel brands. Three luxury hotels in Dubai, including The Address Dubai Marina and two in Downtown Dubai, will be rebranded after Abu Dhabi National Hotels (ADNH) joined forces with hospitality company Marriott, with rebranding of three hotel being JW Marriott Hotel Marina (from The Address Dubai Marina), Hotel Boulevard, Autograph Collection (from Vida Downtown Dubai Hotel) and The Heritage Hotel, Autograph Collection (previously Manzil Downtown Dubai Hotel).

Last Sunday, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, granted a US$ 41 million bonus for government employees. The award by Dubai’s Crown Prince was approved under the guidance of HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, with it intended for those civilian employees who had met certain standards that have been set by the authority; it is meant to motivate employees to keep excelling and to provide a better life for Dubai government employees.

It is reported that the country generates at least 15% extra rainfall because of its cloud-seeding strategy, with it yielding an additional 168-838 million cu mt of rainfall each year. The UAE Research Programme for Rain Enhancement Science, which oversees the cloud seeding operations, notes that the usable water volume within the range of 84-419 million cu mt, equating to the overall approximately 6.7 billion cu mt of rainfall received annually in the country. On average, there are some nine hundred hours of cloud seeding every year, with operations amounting to approximately US$ 8k for every flight hour.

The Federal Tax Authority has issued a new guide providing a comprehensive and simplified explanation and instructions for the tax system that came into effect on 01 June 2023; it will outline the criteria to determine whether individuals are subject to the Corporate Tax Law. It also clarifies that an individual must register for corporate tax purposes and obtain a Tax Registration Number if total turnover exceeds US$ 272k (AED 1 million) within a calendar year of 2024. Non-residents are also subject to corporate tax in cases where they have a permanent establishment in the UAE, with a total turnover of the permanent establishment exceeding US$ 272k.

This week, and after four months of negotiations, the UAE finalised the terms of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Mauritius, marking the UAE’s first with an African nation. The UAE has a fifty-year trade history with the African island nation and this CEPA, when implemented, will pave the way for increased trade and investment flows and bilateral private-sector collaboration. In H1, non-oil bilateral trade between the two countries, stood at over US$ 63 million, with opportunities strongest in the chemicals, metals and petroleum products sectors. To date, the UAE has signed several such trade deals – in the ME, SE Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America – with the CEPA programme, targeting US$ 1.09 trillion in total trade value by 2031 and doubling the size of the wider economy by 2030; this deal is also expected to drive FDI into fintech, healthcare and tourism sectors. Last year, the Mauritian economy grew at 8.5% – its fastest rate in thirty-five years.

The UAE has also finalised a CEPA with the Republic of Congo, (also known as Congo-Brazzaville), with a mandate similar to previous agreements. The deal builds on growing bilateral co-operation between the two countries, which, in H1, saw non-oil trade increase by 134%, on an annual basis, to US$ 2.1 billion between the Emirates and the Republic of the Congo. The deal also followed the signing of three strategic agreements between the nations early this year on double taxation avoidance, investment promotion and protection, and air transport. After its ratification, the deal aims to reduce or eliminate tariffs, remove other trade barriers, bolster market entry, refine customs processes and establish frameworks for investment and collaboration.

The latest IMF Arab Economic Competitiveness Index ranks the UAE as the most economically competitive nation in the Arab world and confirms the country’s sustained progress in crucial sectors, including its strong federal economy, a rapidly increasing attractive investment hub and growing popularity as a social environment. It topped in various sections, including;

• government financial sector index, ranking first in the deficit/surplus to GDP ratio and second in the tax burden index
• Investment environment and attractiveness, topping the economic freedom index
• Institutional and good governance sectors, achieving an advanced ranking in both administrative corruption and government efficiencies
• Infrastructure sector index, leading in mobile phone subscriptions and the percentage of the population with access to electricity, while ranking second in the share of air transport and shipping to total global transport and shipping

The report indicated that the Arab nations are striving to develop service sectors, facilitate business environments and enhance infrastructure to address challenges that hinder their competitiveness.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 25 December 2023, 47 points (1.1%) higher the previous week, gained a further 47 points (1.2%) to close the trading week on 4,063, by Friday 29 December 2023. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.09 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.06, closing on US$ 2.16 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.62, US$ 1.55, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38. On 29 December, trading was at 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, compared to 65 million shares, with a value of US$ 32 million, on 22 December 2023.

The bourse had opened the year on 3,438 and, having closed on 29 December at 4063, was 625 points (18.2%) higher, YTD. Emaar started the year with a 01 January 2023 opening figure of US$ 1.60, to close the year at US$ 2.16. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the year on US$ 0.59, US$ 3.54, US$ 1.55 and US$ 0.41 and closed YTD at US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38.   On 29 December, trading was at 138 million shares, with a value of US$ 58 million, compared to 66 million shares, with a value of US$ 18 million, on 31 December 2022.

By Friday, 29 December 2023, Brent, US$ 3.77 higher (18.7%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 1.94 (2.5%) to close on US$ 77.23. Gold, US$ 27 (1.3%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 9 (0.4%) to trade at US$ 2,074 by 29 December 2023.

Brent started the year on US$ 85.91 and shed US$ 8.68 (8.7%), to close 29 December 2023 on US$ 77.23. Meanwhile, the yellow metal opened 2023 trading at US$ 1,830 and gained US$ 244 (13.3%) to close on US$ 2,074.  

In Q3, Sukuk issuances were at US$ 51.7 billion, almost the same as in the previous quarter but 12.3% lower on an annual basis. In the first nine months of the year, issuances, at US$ 154.6 billion, were 24.7% lower on the year. The main drivers behind the declining returns were rising oil prices and the traditional summer lull in trading. By the end of Q3, the global Sukuk market had reached US$ 823.4 billion, with 90% of the total derived from five countries – Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, UAE and Türkiye, with 40%, 28%, 13%, 6% and 3%. 75% of the total was issued in local currency, with outstanding Sukuk, rated by Fitch, exceeding more than US$ 150 billion – 12.2% higher on the year.

Because of falling lithium prices, shares in Australia’s Core Lithium crashed by more than 20% after the company announced it was reviewing its operations near Darwin because of “the deterioration in lithium market conditions”. The company officially opened its Finniss lithium mine near Darwin in 2022 and is now considering halting production, whilst it has suspended early works on its proposed second mine, BP33. The miner, with the only lithium mine in the Northern Territory, noted that the price of spodumene concentrate (high-purity lithium ore) had fallen 80% this year, “including by more than 40% since the end of October”. It indicated that it is to consider a range of options, including “possible temporary curtailment of mining operations” and “reductions in exploration and other discretionary expenditures”. In November 2022, shares in Core Lithium reached a peak of US$ 1.14, which are now trading at US$ 0.18.

Following a transport ministry investigation, and after admitting that it had falsified safety tests, Daihatsu has closed all four of its plants – in Osaka, Oita, Shiga and Kyoto – until the end of January. The Toyota-owned carmaker confirmed that it had been manipulating safety tests on sixty-four makes for three decades, twenty-four of which are being sold under the Toyota badge. Consequently, it has stopped shipments of all its vehicles in a move that could put 9k jobs in jeopardy. Established 1907, Daihatsu sells around 1.1 million cars per year, which make up around 11% of Toyota’s ten million vehicle sales per year, and it seems test results were falsified because of pressure to keep production rolling.

Twitter, now known as X Corp, has lost a court case, resulting in it violating contracts by failing to pay millions of dollars in bonuses that the social media company had promised its employees. Its former senior director of compensation, Mark Schobinger, sued Twitter in June, claiming breach of contract, and alleging that Twitter had promised employees 50% of their 2022 target bonuses but never made those payments. Twitter had argued that the company made only an oral promise that was not a contract, and that Texas law should govern the case. The judge ruled that California law governed the case and that “Twitter’s contrary arguments all fail”. X has been hit with numerous lawsuits by former employees and executives since Musk bought the company and culled more than half of its workforce.

With Biden’s White House refusing to overturn a ban on sales and imports of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 watches, Apple have retorted by indicating that it will appeal against the US International Trade Commission decision after sales of its newest smart watches were halted in the US over a patent row. This follows a move by the device maker Masimo which had accused the tech giant of poaching its staff and technology, which was found to have infringed two patents owned by the medical device maker. The initial decision was made in late October, which was subject to a sixty-day review by the president – this ran out on Christmas Day. Earlier in December, Apple had taken pre-emptive action by removing the devices from its US site and from stores in the country.  However, US sales were resumed on Wednesday after the tech company filed an emergency appeal with authorities.

Stonepeak is reportedly investing US$ 570 million into the AA to acquire a 15% stake in the UK breakdown recovery service; the US-based investment company specialises in infrastructure and related deals. This would value the AA, which had US$ 2.79 billion net debt at its last year-end, at US$ 5.08 billion. The company, which went private again in 2021 after being delisted on the London Stock Exchange, has been revitalised under its chief executive, Jakob Pfaudler, with an estimated US$ 1.27 billion being added to its net value; over that period, it is now cash-generative and customer numbers once again growing – along with its rival, the RAC, it boasts over fourteen million members, and has 2.7k patrols attending an average of 9.4k breakdowns every day.

After months of negotiations, Sir Jim Ratcliffe has now agreed a deal worth about US$ 1.60 billion to acquire a 25% stake in Manchester United FC. Until recently, the billionaire industrialist faced a rival bid from Qatari banker Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, but he withdrew his offer, leaving the Ineos founder to negotiate with the Glazer family. In a Christmas present to United fans, he announced that he had invested US$ 300 million in the club and is set to take control of United’s football operations. It is fair to say that the American interloping family was not much loved by the majority of fans because of a perceived lack of investment, (and interest), in the club. The Manchester-born entrepreneur has been a life-long ‘Reds’ fan, and already has some footballing interests, as he owns French side Nice and Swiss club Lausanne-Sport. In May 2022, he made an unsuccessful US$ 5.40 billion offer to buy Chelsea, after owner Roman Abramovich put the London club up for sale. There is no doubt that the club, which has won the English championship twenty times, has struggled since the departure of Alex Ferguson.

If Boxing Day is any indicator, there is every chance that retail sales are on the rise, with footfall, compared to 2022, 10.0% higher in central London and up 8.8% nationally; however, when taking into account data from retail parks and shopping centres, footfall was only up 4.0%. Early online sales, as well as major retailers such M&S, Next and John Lewis not reopening their stores until 27 December, have also had a negative impact on footfall, which when compared to pre-pandemic 2019 is 14.9% lower nationally and, rather surprisingly, up 1.6% in central London. One of the main drivers for the London figures was the influx of international visitors, despite there being no VAT refund available on their purchases. Meanwhile, the cost-of-living continues to deflate domestic spending and to dampen consumer confidence.

The last week of the year saw the Australian share market surge to its highest level since April 2022, helped by a 7.0% uptick over the past month. To add to the festive spirit the Ozzie dollar climbed to its highest level in five months, mainly attributable to a weakening greenback, caused by expectations of a Q1 interest rate cuts and more of the same throughout the year. In Wednesday’s trading Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Fortescue all hit record highs of US$ 93.35, US$ 34.73 and US$ 19.90 as the ASX 200 hit 7,598 points.

In 2023, a record 500k people migrated to the ‘Lucky Country’, with this number likely to halve next year. There is no doubt that migration was one of the key drivers of economic growth this year, as it boosts consumer spending, government revenues (higher tax receipts), higher property prices etc, and was the key to the country’s GDP keeping its head above water. Demand from all the additional people was strong enough to keep Australia’s unemployment rate hovering around the 3.5% level, despite the influx of extra workers, but undoubtedly unemployment will slowly start to increase, as falling demand catches up with the labour market. If it were to climb to 4.0%, there will be an increased demand for government handouts – another drag on the exchequer which would also be hit by lower tax receipts. Consumer spending will also be hit by a double whammy of cuts in overtime and an increase in underemployment – working less hours. On top of that, new migrants need accommodation, so that will also impact on an already tight property sector with prices still on an upward curve, albeit at a reduced pace. One possible drag on prices could be the lag from the impact of higher mortgages that had been fixed for many and have now gone to market – and higher – rates.

The last week of the year saw the local share market surge to its highest level since April 2022, helped by a 7.0% December uptick. To add to the festive spirit, the Ozzie dollar climbed to its highest level in five months, mainly attributable to a weakening greenback, caused by expectations of a Q1 interest rate cuts and more of the same throughout the year. In Wednesday’s trading Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Fortescue all hit record highs of US$ 93.35, US$ 34.73 and US$ 19.90, as the ASX 200 hit 7,598 points.

At the beginning of 2023, the RBA underestimated how far interest rates would and were unpleasantly surprised when it had to raise cash rate five times during the year from a starting position of 3.1% to 4.35%; in 2022, the RBA implemented a cumulative 3.0% increase from 0.1%. Some analysts had expected another hike this month and the jury is out whether there will be another hike to come in the new year; the current 4.9% inflation rate is still above the RBA’s 2%-3% target. The forecast is for one more visit to the trough by the end of Q1, despite a Q4 0.2% rise in GDP, followed by up to three rate cuts during the remainder of the year.

The Chinese government is set to introduce regulations that will limit the amount of money and time that people can spend on video games, with the aims of limiting in-game purchases and preventing obsessive gaming behaviour. On the news, shares in major tech companies sank, wiping tens of billions of dollars off their value, with Tencent, NetEase and Dutch tech investor Prosus down 12.4%, 24.0% and 14.0%; only two years ago, a law was introduced that  online gamers under the age of 18 would only be allowed to play for an hour on Fridays, weekends and holidays. The planned curbs also reiterate a ban on “forbidden online game content that endangers national unity” and “endangers national security or harms national reputation and interests”. They must not offer rewards that entice people to excessively play and spend, including those for daily logins and topping up accounts with additional funds.

The ICAP founder, and former Conservative Party treasurer, Lord Spencer received a timely Christmas present with a US$ 266 payment from last week’s takeover of SingLife by Japan’s Sumitomo Life Insurance. It is reported that, five years ago, he had invested some US$ 76 million into the Singaporean financial services group, giving him a healthy 350%+ return. In 2021, he helped to engineer the purchase of Aviva’s Singaporean life business and is said to have played a leading role in the negotiations with Sumitomo. A big donor to Boris Johnson’s successful Tory leadership campaign, he was ennobled in 2010 and chairs the Centre for Policy Studies, Thatcherite thinktank.

UK Finance expects house prices are expected to fall in 2024, (by up to 5%), but that the cost of renting a home will continue to rise by up to 6%. However, a flat national economy, along with a less secure jobs market, and still high mortgage rates, could affect the confidence of people wanting to move or buy a first home. The consultancy also expects mortgage lending to fall, and for more people to fall into arrears, with lending for house purchases declining by up to 8% next year; in 2024, a further 1.6 million homeowners will see their current fixed-rate deal expire, the vast majority of whom could see their monthly repayments rise sharply. Nationwide sees the housing market being subdued next year and expects house prices “to likely record another small decline or remain broadly flat over the course of 2024”. Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility, said that it expected house prices to drop by 4.7% in 2024, whilst Nationwide noted that “if the economy remains sluggish and mortgage rates moderate only gradually, as we expect, house prices are likely to record another small decline or remain broadly flat over the course of 2024.” Meanwhile, Halifax, the country’s biggest mortgage lender, has forecast a fall of between 2% and 4%, but highlighted the same reasons. It is estimated that rents for new lets, that have risen by 31%, (equating to US$ 4.3k), since 2020, are likely to keep rising, but at a slower 5% pace than has recently been the case.

Despite a multi-layer military operation, codenamed ‘Prosperity Guardian’, to keep shipping safe, Hapag-Lloyd will not resume using the Suez Canal, indicating that the Red Sea trade route is still “too dangerous” and will continue on the longer Cape of Good Hope route; it has indicated that twenty-five ships are facing diversion. The length of delays the ships face in reaching their destination vary in length from eighteen days for those heading to or from the eastern Mediterranean, up to fourteen days for those travelling to or from Northern Europe, and seven days for US east coast journeys. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backing Hamas in the Israel-Gaza war, said they are targeting vessels which they believe are heading for Israel, with the announcement by the world’s fifth largest shipping firm, by capacity, coming after the Mediterranean Shipping Company said that one of its container ships had been attacked. However, Maersk said it will resume Red Sea operations. One immediate casualty is Egypt, desperate for foreign exchange, which will see much needed ‘Suez Canal revenue’ reduced until normality return to the area.

2024 Dubai Forecasts

• having delivered the highest level of profit (US$ 2.97 billion), and revenue (US$ 32.64 billion), last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2023, expect Emirates to deliver even more impressive figures this year – at least 20% higher
• DXB will record the number of passengers reaching ninety million, surpassing the previous 88.2 million number record, posted in 2018
• the UAE government will sign at least twelve more Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements this year, as part of its ongoing strategy to targeting US$ 1.09 trillion in total trade value by 2031 and doubling the size of the wider economy by 2030
• Fitch projects that adjusted Dubai debt will fall from 62% to 53% of GDP, helped by several factors including its strong resurgence post-Covid, assets sales of several GREs, increased dividends from associated companies, higher oil prices and a boost in tourism. 2024 will see this figure decline even further to 47%
• two more government-related companies listed on the DFM
• one Dubai family IPO to be listed on the DFM
• the DFM has jumped by 61.2% over the past three years, from 2,492 points to 4,016 – and 20.4% in 2023. 2024 will see double digit growth again, but only at around 11%
• UAE Fitch-rated banks posted a 20.3% 2023 hike in cumulative net profit to US$ 10.35 billion – expect a high single-digit increase in 2024
• Dubai population will grow by 150k to 3.801 million
• 45k units added to bring Dubai’s property portfolio to 875k units
• there is no doubt that property prices have skyrocketed since the pandemic and average prices will continue to move higher – in 2024, expect at lower double digit growth

2024 Global Forecasts

in 2023, the global economy slowed but missed being hit by an inflation and commodity price-driven recession. 2024 will see slower economic growth but interets rates should nudge lower and inflation will remain sticky around the 3.5% mark – and still not hitting its 2.0% target range

geoplitical tensions will not go away but just move from location to ocation, with West Africa, Taiaawn and Yemen places to watch. Wherever they occur, it will damage the health of global economies including the US and China

• Australia, India and parts of Europe will be hit by a mix of floods and record high temperatures which will impact global economic growth
• oil prices will top US$ 110 sometime during a year of volatile trading that will see production three million bpd higher
• the price of flight tickets will continue to remain high for a variety of reasons – including higher aviation fell costs, geopolitical tensions, inflation and supply chain bottleneck – but still lower than pre-pandemic levels
• despite all the talk circulating around climate control, coal will have another record production year in 2024
• high global debt will continue to hurt the poorer nations with a major famine/pandemic all but inevitable
• the so-called “Magnificent 7” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla – will have another good year but slightly down compared to 2023
• a major banking scandal will impact the European banking sector
• a high-profile assassination will rock the economic world
• global growth will be lower than the IMF’s latest 3.0% forecast, and, as usual, the emerging nations will bear the brunt
• Donald Trump will be the US president come the November election
• Rishi Sunak will not be the UK prime minister by year end and neither will Narendra Modi

The following table traces how certain indices have performed over the years. Gold has had a particularly good year – up 13.33% – with many expecting further rises in Q3. Brent has had its troubles, that have been well documented, but it seems that this could be its nadir for the current cycle. Iron ore had another good year, with double digit growth noted for the past two years. Coffee was 8.16% higher in the year but still some way off its 2021 high of US$ 226.75. Cotton continues its downward slide and is 28.0% lower than two years earlier. Silver remains flat and has little support in the market – there is little chance that it will rise from its moribund state in 2024. Copper is expected to move higher at a slightly quicker pace next year. The weak greenback is the main reason for the rise in both the euro and sterling, whilst the Aussie dollar remains flat and there is no surprise to see the slump in the rouble. The bourses are moving in the right direction with an impressive 20.38% return on the local DFM. H2 saw bitcoin move higher and although up 152% higher, is still down 11.4% from its 2021 year-end close.

			%age	29 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec	31 Dec
		Unit	Rise	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Gold	US$	oz	13.33%	2074.0	1,830	1,831	1,895	1,517	1,285	1,305	1,151	1,060	1,186
Iron Ore	US$	lb	11.01%	134.7	121.3	106.7	155.7	91.53	71.3	71.28	75	47	73
Oil -Brent	US$	bl	-10.10%	77.2	85.91	77.78	51.8	66.67	53.8	66.62	56.82	36.4	57.33
Coffee	US$	lb	8.16%	188.2	174.00	226.75	128.25	129.2	101.9	126.2	133	124	161
Cotton	US$	lb	-2.70%	81.2	83.40	112.65	78.12	68.95	72.2	78.5	69	64	62
Silver	US$	oz	-0.41%	24.1	24.18	23.36	26.41	17.86	15.56	16.99	16	13.82	15.77
Copper	US$	lb	1.83%	3.9	3.82	4.46	3.52	2.8	2.64	3.3	2.48	2.14	2.88
AUD	US$		0.15%	0.682	0.681	0.726	0.77	0.702	0.7	0.78	0.72	0.73	0.81
GBP	US$		5.20%	1.273	1.21.0	1.353	1.359	1.326	1.27	1.35	1.24	1.48	1.53
Euro	US$		2.98%	1.105	1.073	1.137	1.218	1.12	1.14	1.2	1.05	1.09	1.21
Rouble	US$		-19.12%	0.011	0.014	0.013	0.014	0.016	0.014	0.017	0.016	0.014	0.017
FTSE 100			3.77%	7733.0	7,452	7,403	6,481	7,542	6,721	7,688	7,142	6,242	6,548
CSI300			-11.39%	3431.0	3,872	4,940	5,212	4,097	3,142	4,031	3,310	3,731	3,532
S&P 500			24.19%	4769.0	3,840	4,766	3,756	3,231	2,507	2,674	2,238	2,044	2,091
DFMI			20.38%	4,016	3,336	3,196	2,492	2,765	2,530	3,370	3,531	3,151	3,774
ASX 200			7.83%	7590.0	7,039	7,844	6,587	6,802	5,652	6,171	5,665	5,345	5,415
Bitcoin	US$		152.37%	42539.2	16856	48011	29,043	7,201	3,694	13,081	998	427	302

It seems that two sectors of the UK economy have gone retro. Last Friday, The Post Office saw a record high for personal cash withdrawals on a single day, with US$ 79 million being withdrawn on the day. Furthermore, with the revival of the physical music market surging, UK sales of vinyl LPs have hit their highest level since 1990, with sales up 11.7% to 5.9 million units – the sixteenth consecutive year of growth. Cassette sales also did well, topping 100k for a fourth consecutive year. Taylor Swift has three albums in the UK’s top 10 best-selling long-players this year – 1989, Speak Now and Midnights. Also in the top ten best-selling vinyl albums were new releases by Ed Sheeran, Lewis Capaldi and Lana Del Rey, along with two classic albums from the 70s – Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours and Pink Floyd’s the Dark Side of the Moon (Live At Wembley 1974). In 1992, the Office for National Statistics noted that the UK economy had shrunk by 4.3% from peak to trough and that there had been a double-dip recession after a brief recovery at the end of 1991. Thirty years later, the UK economy looks in bad shape and with Rishi Sunak and his cohorts there is Nothing New!

Do They Know It’s Christmas?                                                  22 December 2023

The real estate and properties transactions valued at US$ 16.6 billion in total during the week ending 22 December 2023. The sum of transactions was 216 plots, sold for US$ 1.34 billion, and 2,729 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 2.04 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Al Yelayiss 5 for US$ 662 million, the second in Al Hebiah Fourth for US$ 16 million and in Al Goze for US$ 16 million. Palm Jabal Ali recorded the most transactions, with thirty-five sales, worth US$ 232 million, followed by twenty-nine sales, in Madinat Hind 4 for US$ 14 million, and twenty-two sales in Al Hebiah Fifth valued at US$ 16 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were all apartments, the first in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 196 million, followed by one in Dubai Investment Park First for US$ 25 million and the third in Island 2 for US$ 17million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 624 million, with the highest being for land in Al Sufouh Second mortgaged for US$ 139 million; two hundred and fifty-seven properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 545 million.

Over the past twelve months, Dubai’s population has grown 104k to 3.651 million. There is a theory that supply has been lagging demand because of Covid but what is sometimes forgotten is that Dubai’s population growth rate has been moving at a much quicker rate over the past four years, post-Covid – by 2.279% to 3.411 million in 2020, by 1.964% to 3.478 million in 2021, by 2.070% to 3.550 million in 2022 and by 2.845% to 3.651 million in 2023. It is estimated that the number of housing units will reach 830k by the end of this year – an increase of 46.4k from 2022’s total of 783.6k (639.0k apartments and 144.6k villas). A quick estimate would see the approximate household size being 4.40 people per household, with recent trends showing that this ratio is declining.

                                         

		Villas	Apartments	Total	%age	Population	%age	Household
	000s							Size
	2019	120.6	542.6	663.2		3,335		5.03
	2020	130.5	581.2	711.7	7.313%	3,411	2.279%	4.79
	2021	138.5	617.9	756.4	6.281%	3,478	1.964%	4.60
	2022	144.6	639	783.6	3.596%	3,550	2.070%	4.53
	2023	150	680	830	5.921%	3,651	2.845%	4.40

By the end of this year, Dubai will have a portfolio of some 830k housing units and a population of some 3.651 million – an increase of around 104k this year; the ratio of apartments to villas is in the region of 82:18, (680k:150k). Average occupancy will be 4.40 (3,651,000/830,000)

The outlook for 2024 is positive with a caveat that we live in a period of turbulence and all bets could be off the table if a major incident were to occur next year. There is every likelihood that Dubai’s population will jump by at least be 3.65% in 2023, which would add 0.128 million to the population by the end of 2024 at 3.784 million; based on an average 4.30 per household, total unit portfolio would be 880k – a 50k unit annual increase. Over the previous four years, the number of Dubai residential units rose from 663.2k at the end of 2019 to 830.0k by 31 December 2023 – a 166.8k jump, equating to 41.7k per annum. Dubai’s residential property market supply has been lagging population growth with the affordable segment also witnessing shortages after luxury in certain areas of the emirate.

Industry executives say that supply will not be able to keep pace with the demand even in 2024 due to the high influx of foreigners and residents increasingly turning buyers amidst rising rentals. The increase in population is attributed to the high inflow of foreign workers, professionals and investors who flocked to the emirate this year, attracted by the higher returns on investments and the introduction of a variety of residency permits. This was reflected in the Dubai Land Department’s nine-month data which showed the number of transactions jumped by 33.8% to 116.1k worth US$ 116.89 billion. There are areas of under-supply which have contributed to price growth in recent years – such as the villa market, waterfront locations, and mature, established communities which are now ‘built out’ – with little or no land left for further development. In these segments, demand often exceeds supply and drives price growth. There is no surprise to see prices in the more affordable areas rising at a quicker rate because of high mortgage rates and the fact that the whole sector is becoming costlier – with more expensive properties being priced out for many on – or considering climbing on to – the property ladder. Such locations would include Business Bay, Discovery Gardens, DPC, DSO, JV and The Greens. However, a major concern is that if price rises do not cool quick enough over the next three years, many at the lower level will be priced out of the market.

Latest figures from Property Monitor indicate that Dubai property prices continued their upward trend in November, rising by 1.17% to a record high of US$ 346 per sq ft – 3% higher than the previous all-time high of September 2014. Currently, it appears that the apartment segment is growing at a faster rate than that previously seen in the villa/townhouse sector. Cavendish Maxwell estimate that since “bottoming out in October 2020, prices have gone on to increase 44.9% on average, with all three residential property types experiencing varying growth trajectories… Apartments — appreciating, but not at the same pace as villas and townhouses —lagged somewhat in their recovery until Q3 2022 and have since realised stronger gains, while townhouses and villas have experienced muted growth appearing largely to have topped out.”

Sankari Properties is set to build a US$ 1.0 billion ultra-luxury, twin tower development in Business Bay, located in the Marasi Marina Area. With starting prices at US$ 10.0 million, the project will encompass a range of 3 B/R, 4 B/R and 5 B/R apartments, with unit sizes from 600 sq mt; each of the fifty-seven apartments will occupy an entire floor. With a launch date to be announced “very soon”, completion date is slated for Q4 2027. Its chairman, Mohammed Sankari, also noted that the company’s pipeline of projects will include ‘a few more surprises’, with one on the Palm Jumeirah. Sankari Properties was founded this year on the fortieth anniversary of Paris Group, the flagship unit of UAE-based holding company Sankari Investment Group, which was established in 1983 by Mohammed’s father Abdulkader Sankari.

With the aim of catering to Dubai’s stature as a prime market for HNWIs, Arista Properties has entered the emirate’s booking real estate, starting with up to US$ 1.36 billion over the next four years. It plans to set new benchmarks in the realty sector by infusing bespoke designs and elegance into each of its projects. Its first development will be at Mohammed Bin Rashid City, designed by renowned architect firm HBA, (Hirsch Bedner Associates). Its official partner will be One Broker Group, as the firm is also targeting into commercial real estate, developing luxury commercial spaces in the future. Srishti Gaur, Head of Media Relations, noted that “through this launch in the UAE, we recognise the unparalleled potential of this dynamic market. The UAE, with its visionary leadership, thriving economy, and diverse population, perfectly aligns with Arista’s commitment to redefine luxury living. We are confident that our bespoke services will not only redefine the essence of community luxury living but also enable the industry to reach new heights.”

An agreement with Dubai Mall sees listed toll operator, Salik, delivering a parking management system at the mall by Q3 2024. This move is in line with Salik’s strategy of  diversifying revenue streams and easing traffic for visitors. In conjunction with the mall’s management, the terms of the agreement will feature automatic fee collection for ticketless parking, using vehicle plate recognition to deduct fees from Salik user accounts. According to chief executive, Ibrahim Al Haddad, “the project is important for the company’s strategy to offer sustainable and smart mobility solutions to drivers in Dubai, as well as our objective to diversify into complimentary revenue streams,” and that “the solution eliminates the need for gates or barriers at Dubai Mall, helping to minimise congestion and traffic for customers. We are looking forward to building on the success of this initiative to expand the offering to other locations around the city.” With the private parking market estimated to cater for 50k spaces, Salik “sees a compelling opportunity toexpand further and is actively exploring options for growth in the private parking market in Dubai”.

LHR and Gatwick expect today, Flyaway Friday, to be their busiest of the year, with Dubai being the most popular long-haul destination, (and Geneva for short-haul). On the day, LHR expects 689 flights catering for some 250k travellers. December 22 follows the end of the school term and the beginning of the Christmas holiday period.

The Central Bank of the UAE has raised its 2024 forecast for the GDP growth to 5.7% – up 1.4% on its previous 4.3% projection, with non-oil growth at 8.1`% and oil-growth of 4.7%. It expects this year’s growth to come in at 3.1%, with non-oil growth at 5.9%. It noted that actual Q2 growth of 3.8% was down on the year by 4.2%, with 8.0% being recorded in Q2 2022, with non-oil growth at 7.3%, compared to 4.5% a year earlier. Regarding the non-oil sectors of the economy, the report highlighted significant expansions in financial services, insurance, construction, wholesale and retail trade.

DP World will move its global headquarters to Expo City Dubai, after eighteen years located in Jebel Ali it was established under its current name in September 2005. The fifty-year-old global supply chain operator will move to a new building, (designed by Dubai-based DEC Dynamic Design Studio), integrated with DP World’s iFlow Pavilion and water fountain; it will have nine storeys, encompassing 37.3k sq mt of space, and will house approximately eight hundred dedicated staff. Its Group Chairman, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, noted that the move to Expo City Dubai “puts us at the heart of Dubai’s future, while also signifies our commitment to innovation, sustainability, and making trade flow for our global customers”.

Dubai Customs posted an impressive 94.5% growth to 107k in business registration applications in the first five months of 2023, compared to the same period, pre-Covid 2019. Over that period, there were 358.7k refund requests, 220.7k certificate/report requests and 146.9k inspection date booking requests. The number of completed customs transactions grew 36.0% to 5.9 million. There is no doubt that Dubai Customs is one of the leading government agencies when it comes to IT which it has used to maximum efficiency and to enhance customer service. Its investment in advanced technology has helped to facilitate trade and support global trade so much so that only 0.8% of its 3.51 million transactions are done via service counters.

Replacing the Supreme Audit Institution, and reporting directly to the President, HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has issued Federal Decree-Law No. (56) of 2023 on establishing the UAE Accountability Authority. With the twin targets of maintaining and enhancing the integrity of public finances, the Accountability Authority will be the highest authority for financial control, auditing, integrity and transparency in the UAE. It will be tasked to reviewing and auditing the Consolidated Annual Report of the federal government and expressing opinion on it, as well as auditing separate and combined annual financial statements in the entities subject to the control of the Authority. It will be reviewing and undertaking administrative investigation into complaints and reports regarding any misappropriation of funds and assets belonging to the regulated entities, conflicts of interest, misuse of authority, disclosure of official data and information, or exploitation of public office for personal gain or benefit to third parties.

As part of its US$ 437million digital strategy 2023-2030, the Roads and Transport Authority has unveiled eighty-two new projects, structured around six key pillars:  – people’s happiness, quality digital services, data intelligence, integrated digital operations, excellence in asset management, and innovation and partnerships. It will be implemented in four phases – the Preparatory, First, Second and Third Phases – covering seven, sixty-two, ten and three projects, valued at US$ 127 million, US$ 225 million, US$ 68 million and US$ 27 million respectively. It will include enabling 100% fintech-driven mobility, increasing digital service adoption to 95%, digitising the skill set of RTA’s employees to as much as 100%, and developing fifty artificial intelligence use cases. The strategy has also been carefully aligned with the strategic directions of the emirate, RTA’s Strategic Plan 2024-2030 and Dubai Digital Strategy.

According to Euromonitor’s annual Top 100 City Destinations Index 2023, Dubai is the world’s second-best and most attractive city destination to visit; this finding was the result of the emirate possessing a highly conducive business environment, strong international travel demand, consistent development of infrastructure and creative marketing campaigns. The result is based fifty-five metrics across six key pillars – economic/business performance, tourism performance, tourism infrastructure tourism policy/attractiveness, health/safety and sustainability. Paris remained the world’s most attractive city, followed by Dubai, Madrid, Spain, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Berlin, Rome, New York, Barcelona and London. The global market research company expects that Dubai 2023 international trips to be 18.0% higher at 16.8 million, ranking the emirate third after Istanbul (20.2 million) and London (18.8 million) followed by Antalya, Paris, Hong Kong, Bangkok, New York, Cancun and Makkah.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 18 December 2023, 47 points (1.1%) higher the previous week, gained 15 points (0.4%) to close the trading week on 4,016, by Friday 22 December 2023. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.03 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.06, closing on US$ 2.10 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.66, US$ 4.66, US$ 1.57, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.62, US$ 1.55 and US$ 0.38. On 22 December, trading was at 65 million shares, with a value of US$ 32 million, compared to 137 million shares, with a value of US$ 443 million, on 15 December 2023.

By Friday, 22 December 2023, Brent, US$ 1.41 higher (18.7%) the previous week, gained US$ 2.36 (3.1%) to close on US$ 79.19. Gold, US$ 25 (1.2%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 27 (1.3%) to trade at US$ 2,065 by 22 December 2023.

Having joined the bloc in 2007, Angola has decided to leave Opec; on the news, oil prices dropped further following yesterday’s announcement – with Brent down 1.68% to US$ 78.37. One of the reasons behind the withdrawal seems to be that last June, the Opec+ meeting reviewed Angola’s quota cuts and decided that it was massively reduced, with the country being given a target of sticking to 1.11 million bpd of output in 2024.; the Angolans were not impressed and decided to vote with their feet. Opec+ now has total production cuts in place of 3.66 million bpd which includes a 2.0 million bpd reduction agreed in 2022, as well as voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd, announced in April. Global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is expected to be 2.2 million bpd.

Despite all the recent hoo-ha surrounding the environmental/climate sector, it seems that the global consumption of coal reached an all-time high in 2023, with the IEA energy watchdog confirming that Earth has experienced its hottest ever recorded year – surpassing 2022’s record; it confirmed that consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel was 1.4% higher at 8.5 billion tonnes.  Increases in China, India and Indonesia – up 4.9% ((by 220 million tonnes), 8.0% and 11% – outweighed sharply falling demand in Europe (23% lower by 107 million tonnes) and the United States (21% lower by 95 million tonnes). China remains the world’s largest user of coal, responsible for 54% of all coal burned worldwide, with more than 60% of coal burned in China used to generate electricity and the country continues to build coal-fired power stations. it is largely agreed that greenhouses will have to be cut by more than 50% before 2030 to meet the global target of limiting global heating and avoiding the disastrous impacts on the world’s climate. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said earlier in December that 2023 will be the hottest on record after November became the sixth record-breaking month in a row. However, the IERA sees a decline in coal consumption in 2024, as renewable power generation from solar and wind continues to expand.

BP has become the latest international conglomerate to pause all shipments through the Red Sea after recent attacks on vessels by Houthi rebels; the tech giant noted that it made the decision because of the “deteriorating security situation”, with a number of freight companies also suspending their ships from operating through the region. The Red Sea is one the world’s most important routes for oil and fuel shipments, as well as for consumer goods, with ships being targeted travelling through the Bab al-Mandab Strait – also known as the Gate of Tears – which is a 32 km wide channel and known for being perilous to navigate. Any diversion means that ships must take a much longer route navigating around southern Africa which will add up to ten days to a journey to Europe, as well as adding extra costs. It seems that nearly 15% of goods imported into Europe, the Middle East and North Africa are shipped from Asia and the Gulf by sea, including 21.5% of refined oil and more than 13% of crude oil. There is always the chance that oil prices could move higher and lead to higher inflation, which has just fallen to 3.9%, after topping double digit territory last year – and probably the last “present” needed for Christmas.

Houthis have declared their backing for Hamas in its war with the Israelis and the rebels based in Yemen said they were targeting vessels which they believe are heading for Israel. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin held a virtual meeting with ministers from more than forty countries on Tuesday and called on more nations to contribute to the security efforts, noting that “these reckless Houthi attacks are a serious international problem and they demand a firm response”.

There are reports of a possible merger between two of Hollywood’s “Big Five” studios, Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount Global, and if the US$ 38.0 billion deal goes through, it would see the owner of HBO channels and CNN team up with the studio behind the Mission Impossible films and CBS News. The streaming of shows and films has meant that traditional media companies have had to invest more money and cut costs to maintain margins and to compete with the likes of Netflix, Amazon Video and Apple TV. Last year, AT&T’s WarnerMedia unit and Discovery merged to become Warner Bros Discovery, with a portfolio that included Discovery Channel, Warner Bros. Entertainment, CNN, HBO, Cartoon Network and franchises such as Batman and Harry Potter. Currently, Netflix has subscribers 247.2 million globally, well ahead of Paramount Plus total subscribers at 63.4 million and Warner Bros Discovery’s 95 million.

Malaysian businessman, Leonard Glenn Francis, is one of ten US citizens in Venezuela released as part of deal that saw Joe Biden authorise the release of Alex Saab, a close aide to Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro. The fugitive billionaire – known as Fat Leonard – masterminded a brazen US$ 35 million fraud against the US Navy. In August 2022, he escaped house arrest in California, where he was being held after admitting to his role in a sprawling scam that cost the US tens of millions of dollars and implicated dozens of navy officers. In September that year, he was detained trying to board a plane from Venezuela to Russia. His crime centred on his Singapore-based business – which had contracts to service US naval vessels – to defraud the US Navy, while also plying American officers with cash and gifts as bribes. Francis was first arrested in 2013 and pleaded guilty to offering US$ 500k in bribes in 2015.

Lebanon has become another casualty of the Israel-Gaza war, as the country has been hauled back into recession territory, as a result of the Israel-Gaza war. After five years of recession, The World Bank had forecast a 0.2% growth in 2023 but now has downgraded this to a possible 0.9% recession. Lebanon shares a border with Israel in the south and is at risk of being dragged into the conflict and had already been in the midst of a political and institutional vacuum, and a crippling socio-economic crisis for over four years, it has now been hit by another large shock, fearing “that the current conflict centred in Gaza could escalate further into Lebanon.” Since its last expansion, in 2017, the economy has endured what the World Bank has called one of the worst global financial crises since the middle of the 19th century. Inflation, which has haunted Lebanon for several years, is projected to accelerate to 231.3% this year, mainly a reflection of the continued deterioration of the underlying macroeconomic environment. The World Bank noted Lebanon’s banking sector, continued in insolvency, with losses at US$ 72 billion, and that the banking sector’s losses as a share of GDP are “among the largest, if not the largest, in the world”.

Although supportive of manufacturers from across the world investing in US jobs and workers, President Biden indicated that he viewed a strong domestic steel industry as vital to the US economy and national security and said he supported a careful Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States review of Nippon Steel Corp’s US$ 14.9 billion  proposed acquisition of US Steel Corp; he added  it deserved “serious scrutiny,” given the company’s core role in US steel production that is critical to national security. His National Economic Council Director, Lael Brainard, said President Joe Biden welcomed manufacturers from across the world investing in US jobs and workers, but also believed “the purchase of this iconic American-owned company by a foreign entity – even one from a close ally – deserves serious scrutiny in terms of its potential impact on national security and supply chain reliability.” It seems there is strong criticism of the proposed agreement by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers and the powerful United Steelworkers union – and Biden is heading into an election year.

For the first time since its major economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s bankrupt economy has recorded its first positive growth, with Q3 GDP  1.6% higher, on the year. The island nation has posted a minus 8.0% when it declared bankruptcy in April 2022. However, the IMF, which released the second tranche of its US$ 2.9 billion bailout earlier this week, has said that Sri Lanka’s overall growth for 2023 would remain negative, but that this should turn positive in 2024. The loan comes with strings attached, with the world body insisting on some stringent measures, with President Ranil Wickremesinghe saying that reforms were essential despite strong criticism from the opposition. Sri Lanka, which defaulted on its sovereign debt, is still in negotiations with external creditors for concessions on repayment to achieve sustainability, a key component of the IMF bailout.

India maintains its position as the world’s largest recipient of global remittances, with a 12.3% surge in inward flow to US$ 125 billion this year. The US continued to be the largest source country for remittances while the GCC countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, remained top sources of remittances in 2023. The World Bank’s latest Migration and Development Brief points to a continuing growth in remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2023, 3.8% lower, reaching a total of US$ 669 billion. Led by India, South Asia sustained its position as the top recipient region while the MENA region saw a decline in remittance flows for the second consecutive year, mainly driven by a sharp drop in flows to Egypt. Apart from India, the other top four remittance recipient countries were Mexico, China, the Philippines and Egypt, with totals of US$ 67 billion, US$ 50 billion, US$ 40 billion and US$ 24 billion. Last year, the top five were India (US$ 111 billion), Mexico (US$ 61 billion), China (US$ 51 billion), the Philippines (US$ 38 billion), and Pakistan (US$ 30 billion). In the fiscal 2022 year, India received remittances from the following three countries – US, UAE, UK – accounting for 23.4%, 18.0% and 6.8% of the total. Regionally, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar had shares of 5.1%, 2.4%, 1.6% and 1.5%. Unfortunately, recipients continue to suffer from high remittance costs, with the World Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database noting that remittance costs remain persistently high, averaging 6.2% to send US$ 200 in Q2 2023; not surprisingly, banks continue to be the costliest channel for sending remittances, with an average cost of 12.1%.

The UK’s November inflation rate fell at a quicker than expected 0.7% drop to 3.9% – its lowest figure in twenty-four months – with many expecting it to fall to just 4.3%. The Office for National Statistics noted that dropping fuel and food prices helped drive a bigger-than-expected decrease and that it was the first time since June 2022, that food price inflation had fallen to single digit figures. Despite the apparent good news, prices still remain substantially above what they were before the invasion of Ukraine, and the current rate is still almost double that of the BoE’s long-standing 2.0% target.

However, this rate is still well above those seen in the US and the eurozone where inflation has eased to 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. Although the UK’s inflation rate is on par with that of France, it is higher than the rates of 2.3% and 0.6% seen in Germany and Italy. There are various reasons why the UK rate is higher, with the main one being food price inflation rate is at 9.2%, compared to those of France, Germany, Italy and the US – 7.9%, 6.1%, 6.1% and 1.6%. The UK has to import a lot more food (about 50%), than many of its peers, with import prices rising a lot more than for domestic food.

The UK is once again at risk of recession after revised figures showed the economy shrank in Q3, with its GDP contracting by 0.1%, following an amended zero rate the previous quarter – it had earlier been reported as a 0.2% expansion. A technical recession occurs after two consecutive quarters of contraction and the UK has “dodged the bullet” on a few recent occasions. Whether a 2024 recession actually takes place is probably academic, but one certainty is that economic growth will remain subdued during next year. (The Office for National Statistics has forecast Q4 growth at 0.1%).  Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s main hope is for inflation to keep heading south and then the measures he outlined in his Autumn Statement would “deliver the largest boost to potential growth on record” – or so he thinks! The conundrum is that higher interest rates can reduce inflation and benefit savers – but the flipside is that it impacts economic growth by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow. The latest GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested that rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, which slowed over the period.

Christmas has long gone from being a religious festival, celebrating the Birth of Jesus Christ. This year, it seems that consumer spending will remain downbeat, with families struggling with high mortgage repayments, soaring energy prices etc and suppliers, with supply issues and higher running costs Furthermore, there is ever growing global tensions. including the continuing Russia-Ukraine crisis and the horrific war occurring in the Saviour’s birthplace, Bethlehem. Do They Know It’s Christmas?

Are We Human?                                                                15 December 2023

The real estate and properties transactions totalled US$ 3.51 billion during the week ending 15 December 2023. The sum of transactions was 304 plots, sold for US$ 962 million, and 2,744 apartments and villas, selling for US$ 1.95 billion. The top three transactions were all for plots of land, the first in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 256 million, the second in Saih Shuaib 4 for US$ 46 million and in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah for US$ 28 million. Wadi Al Safa 2 recorded the most transactions, with one hundred and twenty-three sales, worth US$ 39 million, followed by thirty-one sales, in Al Hebiah Fourth for US$ 222 million, and twenty-two sales in Madinat Hind 4 valued at US$ 7 million. The top three transfers for apartments and villas were all apartments, the first in Palm Jumeirah for US$ 136 million, followed by one in Trade Center Second for US$ 83 million and the third in Al Thanayah Fourth for US$ 18 million. The mortgaged properties for the week reached US$ 482 million, with the highest being for land in Trade Center Second mortgaged for US$ 99 million; two hundred and thirty-six properties were granted between first-degree relatives, worth US$ 134 million.

YTD, at the end of November, Dubai’s residential transactions reached new record highs – at 112.4k – despite a decline in off-plan sales in November, on the back of a slight moderation in the recent price surge; monthly transactions of 9.0k were 13.2% lower, with a 26.4% decline in off-plan sales, partly offset by a 5.1% hike in the secondary market segment. The YTD November figures were 22.5% higher than the twelve months’ 2022 return. CBRE noted that average annual price rises in November came in at 18.9%, compared to 19.1% a month earlier; average apartment prices increased by 18.3% and average villa prices by 22.2%. Average apartment prices reached US$ 374 per sq ft, and average villa prices topped US$ 457 per sq ft. Interestingly, average apartment sales rates are still 7.7% lower than the record highs registered in 2014, with average villa sales rates currently 16.2% above. Jumeirah registered the highest sales rate per sq ft in the apartment segment of the market at US$ 680, whilst Palm Jumeirah registered the highest sales rate per sq ft in the villa segment of the market at US$ 1,422. In the rental market, annual rental growth in November was at 19.2%, (19.7% in October) – for apartments and villas by 19.6% and 16.6% at US$ 30.4k and US$ 66.9k. In line with prices, Palm Jumeirah and Al Barrari were the two locations for the highest rents -US$ 70.4k and US$ 313.5k. Early indicators point to a continuing softening into the new year, as there will be a slowdown in off-plan sales, with developers delivering stock already in their portfolio and already sold.

Meraas has announced its third collaboration with Bulgari – the beginning of construction on the Bulgari Lighthouse, a new luxury twenty-seven storey beachfront tower at Jumeirah Bay Island, a six million sq ft sanctuary developed by Meraas. The project will comprise four- and five-bedroom penthouses, with various layouts and configurations. As penthouses increase in size and scale, additional features include a private pool, private lift access, an air-conditioned garage, and sweeping terraces. Its curated residences are separated by layers of architectural coral that filter light, air, and the outside world. The Sky Villa Penthouse will encompass the top three floors of the Bulgari Lighthouse and is surrounded by expansive private rooftop gardens, outdoor living spaces, two private pools, and stylish lounge areas on either side of the building, designed by world-renowned architecture firm Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel. All residents can enjoy access to the facilities of the neighbouring Bulgari Hotels & Resorts.

ESG Hospitality has announced the complete sale of all branded apartments at its first Dubai development project, located in the Dubai Hills Estate, the Mallside Residence and Hotel.  Its Curio Collection by Hilton encompasses one hundred and forty-four branded apartments, with the eighteen-floor hotel and residential tower offering a mix of studio, one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, including an extensive selection of retail, dining, and lifestyle offerings. As part of the global Curio Collection by Hilton, the development also features a one hundred and five-key hotel, with an all-day dining restaurant, infinity pool, pool bar, children’s pool, fitness centre, and spa, which are available to both residents and guests. The tower’s top floor will host specialty restaurants and a rooftop bar and lounge.

The hospitality sector seems confident to predict that Dubai is set to reach the 200k hotel rooms landmark by 2030. Speaking at Skift Global Forum East, Sébastien Bazin, Group Chairman and CEO of Accor has ruled out overcapacity as the Asia and Gulf regions have been “building a true tourism plan.” At the same event, Timothy Kelly, president, Atlantis Global, said Dubai is set to have the highest number of hotel rooms in the next couple of years, surpassing Las Vegas, as the emirate witnesses strong growth in tourist numbers and also the inflow of new hotels. He estimates that Dubai will overhaul Las Vegas room inventory of 155k, within the next three years, and will have more hotel rooms than any other city or destination in the world. Dubai Tourism noted that the emirate had 146.5k hotel rooms, at eight hundred and four establishments by the end of 2022, compared to 138.0k rooms and seven hundred and fifty-five establishments a year earlier. He also noted that “the amount of properties that they’ve been able to unveil and bring into the market, there’s demand for that as the emirate has great infrastructure and great relationships”.

Dhows, traditional wooden sailing vessels, have been an integral part of Dubai’s history and culture for centuries, with latest trade figures indicating that there had been a significant increase in trade through traditional wooden dhows. It is estimated that about 11k dhows entered Dubai’s ports in 2023, transporting more than 1.3 million metric tonnes of cargo – 10% higher on the year. The Marine Agency for Wooden Dhows is responsible for streamlining entry and exit processes and is actively engaged in implementing several initiatives aimed at expediting clearances for transactions. A major enhancement has seen the time required for loading and completing ship procedures from forty days to around three, whilst the previous eight to ten hours waiting time has been slashed to just thirty minutes. Dubai Creek, Deira Wharfage and Al Hamriya Port are the key hubs for trade through wooden dhows in Dubai.

Flydubai was named Airline of the Year at the Aviator Middle East Awards that recognised the carrier for setting industry standards by delivering exceptional inflight experiences, efficient operations, as well as contributing to enhancing the Middle East’s global connectivity and driving the region’s economic growth. Its CEO, Ghaith Al Ghaith, also commented that “this award recognises our commitment to making travel more accessible across the region, providing the right product at the right time and to supporting Dubai’s aviation hub. This award goes to everyone working hard at flydubai to ensure we continue to push boundaries and to our passengers and stakeholders for the trust they have in us.” Having added twenty destinations YTD to its expanding network, flydubai created a growing network of more than one hundred and twenty destinations in fifty-four countries served by a young and efficient fleet of eighty-four Boeing 737 aircraft.

A new law, issued by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, has established the Dubai Investment Fund as an independent public entity operating on a commercial basis, empowering the Fund with the financial and administrative independence to pursue its objectives along with the legal mandate to do so. Furthermore, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, issued Dubai Executive Council Resolution No. 94 of 2023 related to the formation of the Fund’s Board of Directors chaired by Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid, with Abdulrahman Saleh Al Saleh serving as Vice-Chairman of the Board, with Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Mulla, Rashid Ali bin Obood, and Ahmad Ali Meftah as members. Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Mulla has been appointed as the MD and CEO of the Fund.

Dubai Investment Fund will be responsible for investing Dubai government funds, surpluses and the general reserve locally and internationally. Its main aim is to generate returns, benefiting both current and future generations, while implementing best practices and the investment policy approved by the board of directors. It will also seek to bolster the financial stability of the Dubai Government by financing the government’s deficit and establishing strong financial reserves, thereby promoting long-term financial sustainability. The fund will actively contribute to the realisation of the emirate’s strategic priorities, and endorsed public policies, through efficient investments in strategic and development projects. Priority is accorded to initiatives that foster Dubai’s sustainable development across vital sectors, including the economic and social spheres, while diversifying income sources. The Fund will focus on investments in stocks, bonds, and securities to achieve sustainable returns and can explore prospects in local or international financial markets while following investment policies, approved by the board of directors. Additionally, it can deal in movable and immovable assets, manage funds, provide mortgages and guarantees, besides participating in the financial derivatives business, all in compliance with Dubai’s laws.

Dubai Investment Fund will function as Dubai Government’s vested authority when it comes to owning shares in entities like Dewa, Salik Company, Dubai Taxi Company, and other companies directly owned by the Dubai Government. Additionally, it covers government-owned companies, as identified by Dubai’s Supreme Fiscal Committee. The Fund will relieve the Dubai Government of rights and obligations related to companies, specifically in the context of ownership of shares comprising the capital of such companies, as well as all contracts, agreements, commitments, deposits, bank accounts, and loans associated with such shares. All relevant government entities in Dubai must register, under Dubai Investment Fund, all their assets, stocks, shares, movable and immovable properties, licences, permits, bonds, privileges, and other instruments. Additionally, Dubai World will be affiliated with the Dubai Investment Fund while preserving its legal identity as defined by Law No. (3) of 2006 and its amendments regarding the establishment of Dubai World.

Following India’s announcement that it would ban the export of all onions until 31 March 2024, prices of the vegetable have jumped sixfold in the UAE retail sector. Industry executives in the country are looking at other markets for a cheaper supply line, with the likes of Turkey, Egypt, Iran and China possible options – but in terms of quantity, quality, and price, Indian onions are considered the best in the market.

As Dubai’s economy is still strengthening, there was no surprise to see the emirate’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI keep in positive territory at 56.8, although 0.6 lighter than the October return. The main drivers behind the latest return include new orders and output improved. A reflection of the marked improvement in business conditions can be gleaned from the fact that inventories also continued to rise at a historically rapid pace in the month. Although new order growth also stayed above trend, November witnessed a softer increase after hitting the fifty-two-month record last month, with sales momentum slowing, attributable to increased market competition. Employment in the emirate also improved in November, albeit at a softer pace than October. The survey noted that other metrics of the emirate’s non-oil private sector economy’s health, such as output and inventories, “remained strong compared to historical trends, suggesting that firms are still expecting to grow and hence expanded both input buying and output volumes”.

To ensure that doing business in Dubai becomes easier, the Department of Economy and Tourism has introduced the ‘Dubai Unified Licence’ – a unique commercial identification provided to all businesses in the emirate. It will be issued to existing and newly established entities, operating with either a mainland or a free zone licence. The registry consolidates all economic establishments in Dubai and its free zones into a single platform for data management, collation and sharing, serving as a reliable single digital information source. The initiative aims to standardise and streamline Dubai’s business processes, in accordance with global best practices, as well as ensuring greater transparency and ease of access to business-related information. As part of the initiative, establishments will undergo thorough validation, verification and screening by the appropriate authorities in order to receive their unique digital identity of which 50k licences have already been issued.

With the US Federal Reserve announcing it would be keeping the Interest on Reserve Balances, to which the base rate is anchored, unchanged, the Central Bank of the UAE followed suit and has maintained the Base Rate to the Overnight Deposit Facility at an unchanged 5.40%.The Central Bank has also decided to maintain the interest rate on borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at 50 bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities. The Base Rate signals the general stance of monetary policy and provides an effective floor for overnight money market interest rates in the UAE.

The Central Bank has joined the AFAQ, which links payment systems in GCC countries, offering financial transactions in local currencies and in real-time with lower fees. (AFAQ is a regional payments system provided by Gulf Payments Company, in cooperation with Saudi Central Bank, to execute financial transactions in GCC local currencies, in a short period of time with competitive pricing within a safe and stable ecosystem. It is in line with the CBUAE’s strategy to provide secure and instant payment platforms and enhance integration with the regional payment ecosystem. Barclays has also joined the organisation, being the first such financial institution in the UAE. To date, the state banks of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have joined, along with a number of commercial banks from the three countries. The remaining GCC Central Banks and commercial banks will join in due course, in line with an agreed work timetable.

This week, the Central Bank of the UAE revoked the licence of Cogent Insurance Broker and struck the UAE-based company’s name off the Register, pursuant to Art 22 (2) of the Board of Directors resolution No 15 of 2013 Insurance Brokerage Regulations. This administrative sanction follows an internal examination that found that Cogent had a weak compliance framework and failed to comply with its regulatory obligations.

e& has signed a binding agreement for the 100% acquisition of Norwegian telecommunications company Telenor’s local unit, as it continues to expand its operations in Pakistan. It was signed by Pakistan Telecommunication Company, e&’s listed operating entity, and Fornebu-based Telenor for the acquisition of Telenor Pakistan at an enterprise value of US$ 381 million. The move will allow the local tech giant to focus on building the best next-generation network and drive the growth of digital transformation in Pakistan. The country’s telecommunication sector had about one hundred and ninety-seven million subscribers, which covers nearly 89% of the population, and posted 2022 revenue of US$ 2.45 billion, (up 7.8% on the year), and contributed 2.7% to Pakistan’s GDP. It is estimated that within five years, the country’s telecom market is projected to hit US$ 5.15 billion, from an estimated US$ 4.38 billion in 2023, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.28%.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 11 December 2023, 41 points (1.0%) lower the previous fortnight, gained 47 points (1.1%) to close the trading week on 4,001, by Friday 15 December 2023. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.03, closing on US$ 2.04 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 4.74, US$ 1.53, and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 4.66, US$ 1.57 and US$ 0.38. On 15 December, trading was at 137 million shares, with a value of US$ 443 million, compared to 103 million shares, with a value of US$ 65 million, on 08 December 2023.

By Friday, 15 December 2023, Brent, US$ 17.40 lower (18.7%) the previous seven weeks, gained US$ 1.41 (1.9%) to close on US$ 76.83. Gold, US$ 79 (6.9%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 25 (1.2%) to trade at US$ 2,038 by 15 December 2023.

Turkish Airlines has ordered two hundred and thirty Airbus planes as part of a multibillion dollar deal including one hundred and fifty A321 planes, seventy A350 wide-body aircraft and a number of freighters; there are also rights to extend the deal to 355 aircraft. The airline has said publicly for months that it wants to place a big order as it aims to almost double its fleet in the next decade. This order  is also in accord with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition that Turkey  becomes a global power assisted by a strong national carrier

It follows a handshake accord in Istanbul, and adds weight to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition that Turkey becomes a global power. The airline’s chairman Ahmet Bolat noted that “we are reinforcing our leading position in global aviation and contributing to the nation’s prominence as an aviation hub.” For manufacturers in the Airbus supply chain the multibillion-dollar deal represents thousands of jobs, and in the UK, the benefits will run into the billions, as Rolls Royce will be making the engines and other stakeholders in the country providing parts.

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has advised Tesla to recall more than two million EVs after its driver assistance system was found to be partly defective; this recall covers most of the Teslas ever sold since 2015, when this tech was first introduced. Tesla confirmed that it would send a software update “over the air” to fix the issue. Autopilot is meant to help with steering, acceleration and braking – but, despite the name, the car still requires driver input. However, the NHTSA two-year investigation, involving nine hundred and fifty-six crashes, found that “the prominence and scope of the feature’s controls may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse”. According to the recall notice, the company did not concur with the agency’s analysis but agreed to add new features to resolve the concerns, including additional checks on turning on the self-driving features. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated this month that Tesla’s most advanced Autopilot offering, full self-driving, could end up generating more than US$ 50 billion a year in revenue by 2030, up from US$ 1 billion-US$ 3 billion presently. In the US, the full-self driving package costs US$ 12k, as well as a US$ 0.2k monthly subscription fee.

In the middle of a “streamlining” process, Nationwide has warned the possibility of five hundred staff being retrenched, indicating that it expects about two hundred to leave as it will seek to find people new roles. Confirming that redundancies will not impact “customer-facing colleagues”’, the Swindon-based finance company said the redundancy consultation aims to improve efficiency and direct investment into other areas of the business. A day earlier, it announced that it was rescinding its “work anywhere policy” and has advised staff to return to the office for at least two days a week, from early next year.

Only two months after filing for US bankruptcy, Smile Direct Club, founded in 2014, has closed its business, leaving many of its customers still requiring ongoing treatment; it claims that it has “improved more than two million smiles and lives”. The orthodontics company is best known for selling clear aligners for about US$ 2.3k, without the need to visit a dentist. Traditional dentistry sees “train-track” braces and clear aligners being fitted by dentists and orthodontists themselves, after an in-person consultation, but the US disruptor offered the same service cheaper and the fact they could take the moulds for their aligners themselves at home. Furthermore, the procedure only took four to six months – a much shorter period. Now the problem facing existing customers is future service because it appears that its customer support line will no longer be available, despite the fact that they may need check-ins or adjustments for their aligners; it does advise that if treatment is needed, they should contact their local dentists!  The company, which never made a profit, was once valued at US$ 8.9 billion but is now estimated to have US$ 900 million of debt.

Having already laid off eight hundred staff already in 2023, US toy giant Hasbro plans a further staff reduction of 1.1k – equating to almost 20% of its workforce – in a bid to save US$ 300 million. The maker of Transformers action figures, the Dungeons & Dragons fantasy game and Monopoly indicates that the cuts are down to weaker sales in the build-up to Christmas. Its CEO Chris Cocks noted that “market headwinds… have proven to be stronger and more persistent than planned.” Hasbro is not the only toy company to be suffering, but like others in the sector, it is struggling with a slowdown in sales after a surge during the pandemic when some parents bought toys to keep their children busy.

Having sued Google in 2020 for unlawfully making its app store dominant over rivals, Fortnite has won a US court battle against the tech giant, with a jury deciding that the search giant had operated an illegal monopoly; Epic won on all counts, with the court indicating that it would start considering the issue of compensation next month. It is estimated that hundreds of millions of people have had to use the store to install apps for smartphones, powered by Google’s Android software. Android powers roughly 70% of smartphones globally, and according to Epic games, more than 95% of Android apps are distributed through the Play Store. Although the store is not as profitable for the tech giant as its search business, the platform gives Google access to billions of mobile phones and tablets. The case also challenged transaction fees of up to 30% that Google imposes on Android app developers, and how the tech giant ties together its Play Store and billing service, which means developers must use both to have their apps in the store.

Mainly attributable to returning striking workers, both in the car industry and Hollywood, November US jobs growth was stronger, at 199k, helping to put jobless number down to 3.7% – the lowest since July 2023. Although this is welcome news for jobseekers, the stronger than expected job gains are food for thought for the Federal Reserve, which is still trying to cool the economy to reduce inflation. Furthermore, the report showed average hourly pay ticking up 0.4% from October – and 4.0% on the year which many think at this rate, it still shows that the Fed has got its job cut out to finally get on top of inflation and return it to its longstanding 2.0% target. There is no doubt that consumer spending continues to defy traditional economic theory and that the main driver behind this is the ongoing strong labour market. It is not so long ago that economists were spouting that pushing up interest rates, would result in an inevitable economic recession, with higher borrowing costs forcing firms and households to slow spending dramatically. History is telling another story. The Labor Department confirmed that the monthly average number of new jobs over the past twelve months has been 240k – or nearly 1.7 million in the period. On an annual basis, job growth is actually softening, but is obviously standing up well in an environment of slowing global growth and turbulent economic times, including record high interest rates.

An investor group, Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management, has offered to pay US$ 21 for each share of Macy’s that they do not already own – this is 20.8% higher than its closing price last Friday; earlier in the year, they were hovering around the US$ 11 level. Shares of the US department store have surged on hopes of a US$ 5.8 billion buyout deal. Macy’s, parent of Bloomingdale’s and makeup firm Bluemercury, operates more than seven hundred and twenty stores in the US. There is no doubt that the retailer has seen better times and in June, it cut its annual profit and sales forecast, whilst nine months sales to October came in 9.0% lower compared to 2022.

Republican Senator Rick Scott has requested the US government to investigate claims that Chinese garlic is unsafe, citing unsanitary production methods. Previously China has been accused of “dumping” garlic on to the market, at below-cost price. The country is the world’s biggest exporter of fresh and chilled garlic, with the US being a major consumer. Over the past thirty years, it has levied heavy tariffs on Chinese imports so as to “level the playing field”, when it comes to prices, with Donald Trump lifting them further in 2019. Senator Scott also highlights “a severe public health concern over the quality and safety of garlic grown in foreign countries – most notably, garlic grown in Communist China” – which, he says, have been “well documented” in online videos, cooking blogs and documentaries, including growing garlic in sewage.

The former head of a branch of The Bank of China has been jailed for life, after being convicted of embezzling US$ 325 million in one of the country’s biggest corruption cases. Xu Guojun was the head of a branch in Southern China from 1993 to 2001 and took advantage of loopholes in the lender’s fund management system to obtain false loans, along with two accomplices. He had fled to the US in 2001 but was forcibly repatriated two years ago, and now has also been deprived of political rights for life, with all his assets being confiscated. This case is the latest development in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption programme, that is focussed on the country’s US$ 60 trillion financial industry. He is on record on the need to crack down on the “hedonistic” lifestyles of bankers, and it seems that he is keen to weed out corruption in this sector. In October, Liu Liange, a former chairman of the Bank of China was arrested over suspicion of bribery and giving illegal loans; a month earlier, former chairman of China Life Insurance Wang Bin was sentenced to life in prison without parole for bribery.

Javier Milei, the newly appointed president of Argentine, has indicated that he will have to make significant public sector spending cuts to stabilise the economy and that “there is no alternative to a shock adjustment.” The libertarian economist warns that there is no alternative to this action to fix the country’s worst economic crisis in decades of boom-bust cycles, including inflation heading towards 150%. His other warning was that the economy would worsen in the short-term, saying “there is no money.” He has a difficult job to pull the country, (with 40% of its population living under the poverty line), back to some form of economic normalcy. He has inherited a country with a US$ 100 billion debt “bomb”, net foreign reserves at a negative US$ 10 billion, inflation at 143% and still moving quickly north, an inevitable and imminent sharp devaluation of the peso, and a recession on the short-term horizon.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s positive immigration strategy has worked well to date and has aided economic growth, as well as reducing the ongoing problem of an ageing population. With the high cost of living and rental shortages, things are beginning to change and now there is the problem of rising emigration numbers; although relatively low numbers currently, there are concerns that it may diminish Canada’s position as a favourite destination, including with Arabs, Indians and Chinese. In H1, 42k left the country, compared to 263k entering over that period, with official data showing the numbers in 2022 and 2021 were 94k and 86k. Over the past eight years, some 2.5 million have been granted permanent residency, but emigration as a percentage of Canada’s overall population currently stands at about 0.09% – having touched a 0.2% high in the mid 1990s. On average in Canada, about 60% of household income would be needed to cover home ownership costs, but this rises to 80% and 98% in Toronto and Vancouver. Last month, Trudeau’s government capped its target for new residents at a half million per year from 2025 onwards to ease pressure on the housing market.

Having launched in Melbourne in 1972, and having rebranded to Chemist Warehouse in 2000, the pharmacy chain has opened hundreds of outlets and over the fifty-one years in business has remained a private entity. This week, it has been announced that it has agreed with Sigma Healthcare not only to create the biggest pharmacy company in Australia but also to be one of the country’s biggest retail companies in Australia, (with a total value of US$ 5.77 billion). The deal, signed last Monday, confirmed that the parent company of Chemist Warehouse, CW Group Holdings, had entered into a merger agreement with Sigma Healthcare, to create “a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor and retail pharmacy franchisor”. The conglomerate will encompass the whole pharm sector from product creation to selling them instore.

There are now around six hundred Chemist Warehouse stores in four countries, with the majority of them in Australia, forty-two in New Zealand, and six each in Ireland and China. In addition, it owns twenty-one stores under the My Chemist brand and 17 Ultra Beauty stores, located within select Chemist Warehouse stores. It is also part-owner of a number of brands it stocks in its stores, including Bondi Protein Co, Goat Soap, Barely Intimate Skincare, Bambi Mini and the Wagner supplement brand. In addition, not only does Sigma own four different pharmacy brands – Amcal, Discount Drug Stores, Guardian and PharmaSave – with four hundred pharmacies operating under those brands, it also operates another eight hundred pharmacies around Australia. It also has its own brands and private labels, including Amcal-branded items including pain relief, lozenges, vitamins and cold and flu tablets, as well as part-owning specific brands sold at its stores, including Beauty Theory (which sells items like bobby pins and hairbrushes) and Pharmacy Care (which sells skincare, pain relief, baby products and health devices like blood pressure monitors and thermometers). It also owns three of the nine distribution centres that it operates in the country, as well as making its own products, for internal and external sale. When the deal was signed, Sigma estimated that the total sales of products to Chemist Warehouse would generate a minimum of US$ 2.0 billion in revenue in the first year of the contract alone.

In order to overhaul a “broken” migration system, the Australian government indicated that it would tighten visa rules for international students and low-skilled workers that could halve its migrant intake over the next two years., and “bring migration numbers back to normal.”  The new rules would see international students needing to secure higher ratings on English tests and there would be more scrutiny on a student’s second visa application that would prolong their stay. The decision comes after net immigration was expected to have peaked at a record 510k last year, but that it would fall to about 250k over the next two years. the increase in net overseas migration in 2022-23 was mostly driven by international students. The government also intends to “lift the standards” for international students and education providers to ensure that those who come to study do not become “permanently temporary”.

Last Sunday, the Australian Treasurer indicated that foreign buyers of existing homes will have to pay triple the fees on purchases, partly aimed at increasing the supply of affordable housing. Jim Chalmers added “higher fees for the purchase of established homes, increased penalties for those that leave properties vacant, and strengthened compliance activity will help ensure foreign investment in residential property is in our national interest.” Furthermore, Albanese’s centre-left Labour government would also cut application fees for foreign investment in “build to rent” projects to encourage construction of more homes. It is estimated that the changes, just announced, will generate around US$ 300 million the government could invest in priority areas like housing. Only last year, the Treasurer took another strike at overseas buyers after doubling the fees for foreign investors buying assets in the country, which the government said would generate US$ 305 million in extra revenue over four years. Australian property prices are among the highest in the world, with the trend set to continue, with rising demand outstripping supply.

The UK’s Payment Systems Regulator has proposed a cap on fees that credit card firms, including Mastercard and Visa, charge retailers for payments between the EU and the UK. The payments watchdog estimates that the fees, which can get passed on to consumers, cost UK firms up to US$ 250 million in 2022.  The industry regulator opines that some credit card firms have probably raised fees to an “unduly high level” since Brexit. The EU bloc has a cap on so-called “cross-border interchange fees”, which retailers pay when customers in the UK buy from the European trading bloc. This was the same in the UK pre-Brexit but since then, it appears that Mastercard and Visa have “significantly raised” the fees charged to retailers in the UK. The watchdog has proposed an initial, time-limited, cap of 0.2% for debit card transactions, and 0.3% for credit cards, for transactions made online at UK businesses – in line with the EU cap.

The Halifax’s House Price Index has noted house prices rising 0.5% between October and November, but at US$ 355k, the average British home was worth 1.0% less than it was in November 2022. It noted that “the resilience seen in house prices during 2023 continues to be underpinned by a shortage of properties available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand,” as property prices having “held up better than expected.” With mortgage rates starting to come off historic highs, and inflation levels slowly heading south, this could result in a rise in consumer confidence, and an improving picture on affordability for homebuyers. There is a good chance that house prices will weaken in 2023, as the knock-on impact of the fourteen rate hikes, over the previous two years filter through to the market. Next year, sellers may be forced to price their homes more competitively to secure a sale, while mortgage rates are expected to ease further. Other possible sellers may adopt a wait and see approach and put buying plans on hold to see what happens to mortgage rates in the longer term.

On a regional basis, the South-East saw November prices down 5.7% on the year by US$ 28.4k to US$ 468.6k. Not surprisingly, London retains its position for the highest average house prices at US$ 657.4k, despite posting a 3.8% price decline. Northern Ireland recorded the strongest performing UK region, with house prices up 2.3% to US$ 237.7k, whilst in Scotland, house prices were largely flat over the year, but in Wales they fell by 1.5%, where the average house cost US$ 270.4k in November.

Latest data from the ONS, pay growth, excluding bonuses, eased to 7.3% in the quarter ending October – an indicator that earnings are actually slowing but are still outpacing inflation; that being the case, it is likely that the BoE’s next move will be to start shaving rates, from the current 5.25% mark, starting in Q1 2024. For the seventeenth consecutive month, the number of people on payrolls, with November posting a 45k reduction. Despite these falls, overall vacancies totalled 949k – still “well above pre-pandemic levels”. Although inflation has fallen to 4.6%, it is still more than double the BoE’s 2.0% target.

A combination of bad weather and higher interest rates, the UK economy shrank unexpectedly 0.3%, following a 0.2% expansion the previous month. A 0.1% dip was expected, but the services, manufacturing and construction sectors all contracted, with retail and tourism being hit by severe weather in October as Storm Babet lashed the UK. The UK economy has been stagnating and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to speed up growth, but no marked improvement is expected until January 2025, by which time he could well be out of office. The BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, has expressed his concern, (yet again), over the UK economy’s potential to grow, noting “there’s no doubt it’s lower than it has been in much of my working life.” On Wednesday, the Resolution Foundation suggested that Britain was a “stagnation nation” due to poor productivity and a lack of investment in things like skills; it noted that the UK growth had only been 0.5% over the past eighteen months – the weakest rate outside of a recession on record.

Now in its third month of conflict, one side effect of the devastation is that its economy will contract by 3.7% from a growth projection of 3.2% prior to the start of the war. The World Bank estimation is that the decline will equate to about US$ 1.5 billion, in nominal GDP, for 2023 alone. There is widespread concern that there will be long term damage to its economy and, to all intents and purposes, the Palestinian economy has been at a “near-complete standstill” since the conflict broke out in October. To make matters worse, H1 growth slowed to 3.0% annually, largely due to the waning post-pandemic recovery. Gaza’s economy alone has been experiencing a deep contraction, having shrunk by 4.4%, on the year, in H1, driven mainly by a large decline in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors, a result of additional Israeli restrictions on the sale of Gazan products into the occupied West Bank since August 2022. As of the second half of November, about 60% of information and communications technology infrastructure, at least 60% of health and education centres and 70% of commerce-related infrastructure had been damaged or destroyed in Gaza. Furthermore, almost 50% of all primary, secondary and tertiary roads are damaged or destroyed, and more than half a million people are homeless as a result of the conflict. It will obviously take years for the poverty-stricken economy to recover, with the ongoing bombing of Gaza becoming much more than a humanitarian crisis.

At Tuesday’s UN General Assembly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was passed by one hundred and fifty-three member states of the one hundred and ninety-three member bloc. The US was one of ten members to vote against the resolution and the UK one of twenty-three who abstained, and with the death toll now topping 18k, and rising – Shame on you! How many more people will have to die and how much further devastation is needed for a change in your attitude? Come Judgement Day, some stakeholders, will surely pay a high price for either their action or inaction. The question to everyone in the world that sees what is going on is a simple Are We Human?