howesdubai.com

Mess It Up!                                           26 September 2025

Further good news, from ValuStrat, for Dubai property owners and investors, with its latest Residential Price Index, showing August capital values reaching 227.3 points – 22.1% higher on the year – and a sure indictor that the sector is still running hot. The consultancy noted that although villas still remain the main talking point, there are some apartment communities quickly catching up. A summary of their findings show that villas still lead the field.

Villas            values rose 1.8% on the month and 21.7% on the year

prices are now 190% above post-Covid lows and 76% higher than 2014 peaks

hotspots include Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah, Green Community West and The Meadows with hikes of 39.8%, 39.3%, 25.7% and 25.5% – with Mudon up by 8.8%

shows that family-oriented villa communities continue to see demand from both end-users and investors, particularly in prime waterfront and landscaped developments

Apartments     gained 1.1% month-on-month and 19.1% year-on-year

        citywide, values are still 2.5% below 2014 highs, but rising steadily

  hotspots include Dubai Silicon Oasis, The Greens, Remraam, Dubailand Residence Complex, Dubai Production City and Town Square, with annual Increases of 22.7%, 22.6%, 22.0%, 21.9%, 21.1% and 21.0% indicates that affordable, mid-market apartments, with strong connectivity, are becoming investor favourites, especially with rental yields in focus

As has been the case for some time, off plan sales continue to dominate the market, accounting for 77.8% of the August market, attributable to developers introducing more attractive and flexible payment plans. The leading communities include Business Bay, which had its highest-ever month for off-plan sales, followed by Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Investment Park and Dubai South, with off plan sales for ready homes heading in the other direction – down 20.6% on the month and 2.5%, year-on-year. JVC l accounted for 10.1% of such sales followed by Dubai Marina, Business Bay and Downtown. In the ultra-luxury market, nineteen homes were sold in August, at above the US$8.2m level, of which six went for above the US$ 16.4m level. Prime locations continue to be Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Al Barari, Emirates Hills and Dubai Hills Estate.

The latest Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025, released by UBS, points to Dubai, (rising nine places to fifth), and Madrid, (up six places to tenth), having seen the strongest bubble risk increases this year. The Swiss bank noted that “since mid-2023, real prices have climbed by double digits and are now 50% higher than five years ago, the strongest increase among all cities in the study. As a result, housing bubble risk has surged for a second consecutive year and reached an elevated level”. Globally, Miami shows the highest bubble risk, while high bubble risk also appears in Tokyo and Zurich, with elevated risks showing up in Los Angeles, Geneva, and Amsterdam. The study confirmed Hong Kong still to be the least affordable city, requiring about fourteen years of income to purchase a 650 sq ft apartment. Interestingly, it also cited that incomes were not keeping pace with home prices.

Mercer’s 2025 Middle East Housing and Schooling Report has indicated that UAE employers are tending to increase employees’ housing allowances by an average 4% because of the big increase in housing rentals. It noted that rents in most of the communities in Dubai have been rising in the range of high single-digit to double-digit over the past few years. The report also added that 52% of employers had a policy to provide the housing allowance in advance rather than on a monthly basis and found that 70% of UAE firms provided a separate housing allowance, 25% include housing within a consolidated allowance, with the remainder providing total cash packages. The consultancy also commented that “as competition for talent continues across the region, employers must ensure they have a strong employee value proposition, which includes market-competitive allowances and benefits to remain competitive”. The report also showed that 89% of UAE employers provided schooling coverage.

Meanwhile both Moody’s and Fitch are forecasting a market adjustment in the next two years after a strong four-year plus bull market, as supply catches up with demand. Both noted that residential values have surged nearly 60% between 2022 and early 2025, fuelled by foreign capital inflows, rising affluence, and record immigration supported by long-term visa reforms.  It seems that they disagree with on the supply over the next three years – with the former going for 250k and the latter by 150k. Interestingly, last week’s blog mentioned the same three year forecast, by Driven Properties and Forbes, noted “that a notable spike in upcoming supply is expected between 2026 (136.2k units) and 2027 (122.9k units), compared to 60.2k in 2025″. Take your pick! However, many would agree that an orderly adjustment is in the offing with the only queries being when and by how much? This blog would see 2028 as a likely date going forward but with a slow correction in prices – and still in positive territory.

Under the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, The Ministry of Finance has signed the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement on the Automatic Exchange of Information. It is expected that its implementation will go live in 2027, with the first exchanges of information expected a year later. The mechanism will permit the automatic exchange of tax-related information on crypto-asset activities, which will allow the federal government to ensure that is in a position to provide certainty and clarity to the crypto-asset sector while upholding the principles of global tax transparency. All stakeholders, including advisory service providers, intermediaries, traders, custodians, exchange platforms and others active in the crypto-asset sector, have been invited by the Ministry of Finance to participate in the public consultation on CARF implementation in the UAE and to share their views and recommendations on its potential impacts and areas requiring further clarification.

There was no surprise to see Dubai, once again, top the Financial Times’ fDi Markets database, for attracting greenfield foreign direct investment projects in H1; the emirate attracted six hundred and forty-three new FDI projects – the highest number ever recorded for any city globally, in a half-year period, since fDi Markets began tracking the data in 2003. It also rose two places, to number two, globally for FDI capital, and number three for jobs created. These results confirm Dubai’s position as a global hub for business and leisure and is in alignment with the goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “the strength and resilience of Dubai’s economy continues to inspire confidence among global investors in its ability to reimagine the future and unlock emerging global technological trends and sustainable sectors”.

According to the latest Global Financial Centres Index, Dubai has risen eleven places to fourth worldwide for FinTech, thus consolidating its position as the leading financial hub in the MEASA region. It also rose to eleventh on a global basis in the overall GFCI rankings and was named the world’s top financial centre expected to gain future significance. Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, said this milestone supports the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to place Dubai among the world’s top four financial hubs. Meanwhile, the DIFC posted that the number of AI, FinTech and innovation companies operating within its ecosystem is at 1.5k— the largest cluster of its kind in the region that have collectively raised over US$ 4.2 billion in investment.

In a bid to transform the ride-hailing experience across the city, a partnership of the Dubai Taxi Company, (and its strategic partner Bolt), with Kabi by Al Ghurair, along with the UAE’s homegrown ride-hailing app Zed. The end result will see the 6.2k Dubai Taxi vehicles and 3.7k Kabi taxis fully integrated into the Bolt and Zed platforms – giving customers faster access to rides, shorter wait times and improved service. This move is in line with the emirate’s aim to shift 80% of taxi trips to e-hailing, in line with the Roads and Transport Authority’s vision for smart, sustainable transport.

Dubai-listed and education provider Taaleem Holdings has signed two financing agreements with Emirates Islamic, worth US$ 264 million to fund the acquisition of a majority stake in Kids First Group, (US$ 199 million), and the construction of a new Harrow School in Abu Dhabi, (US$ 65 million). KFG runs thirty-four nurseries across the UAE and Qatar, that will allow Taaleem to run education from the ages of one to eighteen, giving it a firm foothold in a burgeoning early learning segment, adding to its existing K-12 portfolio. The second financing package will help in developing a new Harrow School in Abu Dhabi, with Taaleem holding exclusive rights to operate the Harrow brand in the GCC

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 22 September, on 6,023 points, and having shed eight points (0.1%), the previous week, lost one hundred and sixty-eight points (2.8%), to close the week on 5,855 points, by 26 September 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.09 lower the previous week, ditched US$ 0.21 to close on US$ 3.62 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.92, US$ 2.69 and US$ 0.45 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 6.65, US$ 2.56 and US$ 0.44. On 26 September, trading was at one hundred and forty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and sixty-nine million dollars, compared to two hundred and fifty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and seventy million dollars, on 19 September 2025.

By 26 September 2025, Brent, US$ 0.22 (0.3%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 3.79 (0.3%) to close on US$ 70.56. Gold, US$ 2 (0.1%) lower the previous week, gained US$  99 (2.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,778 on 26 September. Silver was trading at US$ 43.34 – US$ 2.52 (5.8%) higher on the week.

Nvidia posted that it had agreed with OpenAI – the company behind ChatGPT – to invest up to US$ 100 billion in the business going towards data centres for OpenAI’s “next-generation AI infrastructure”, as well as supplying high-performance chips needed for the processing power required by the new technology. Both firms said they were already working with a broad network of collaborators focused on making the “world’s most advanced AI infrastructure”, including working with Microsoft, Oracle, SoftBank, and Stargate. However, it appears that although the US is still the pioneering leader in this industry, China, with the likes of DeepSeek-R1, is hard on their heels. Recently, the world’s biggest company, by market cap, has been involved in some interesting investment deals such as the US$ 5 billion agreement with Intel and the US$ 2 billion planned for the UK AI sector.

Following legal action by the US Federal Trade Commission, Amazon has agreed to pay US$ 2.5 billion to resolve claims that it conned millions of people into enrolling as Prime members and then making it difficult to cancel. This marks a major victory for the FTC, yielding the largest ever civil penalty secured by the agency. 60% of this payment will go as refunds for customers who were duped into signing up for the service. As would be expected, Amazon, which did not admit or deny the allegations, said it had “always followed the law” and the settlement would allow the firm to “move forward”. The FTC alleged that “the evidence showed that Amazon used sophisticated subscription traps designed to manipulate consumers into enrolling in Prime and then made it exceedingly hard for consumers to end their subscription”. An estimated thirty-five million people in the US who were affected by such practices between June 2019, and June 2025 could be eligible for refunds, worth up to US$ 51, according to the FTC.

Faced with the triple whammy of cheaper Chinese EVs, the Trump Tariffs and a slowing global economy, there is no doubt that European car makers are facing troublesome times, none more so than Porsche. Like others, they are caught between a rock and a hard place – or between electrification and its popular petrol-powered sports cars. Last week, it warned that there would be further delays in the roll-out of its EVs, not helped by the fact that demand for EVs is flatlining. The German company also confirmed that it would also extend production of its range of combustion engine models, despite the 2035 EU deadline banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. It also posted that current models, such as the four-door Panamera and Cayenne, will continue to be available, with non-electric options ,well into the 2030s. On the news, there were 7.0% declines for both Porsche, (which confirmed that its projected profit margin would fall from 7% to 2%), and its parent company Volkswagen, saying it would spend billions to overhaul Porsche’s line-up of vehicles.

Bosch, the struggling German engineering giant, with a global 418k workforce, is set to cut thirteen thousand jobs as part of its plans to save US$ 2.92 billion resulting from a cost gap in its auto business bought on by a combination of Trump tariffs, increased competition from the likes of Tesla and BYD, as well as operating in a stagnated market. Furthermore, it will decrease investments in its production facilities and buildings as it had seen a “sharp decline in demand” for its products. In the present economic climate, it does not foresee any redundancies for its UK operations.

It seems that the Cooperative Group, one of several major UK retailers, including Marks & Spencer, to suffer from cyberattacks last April, has been left to count up the cost. Apart from a US$ 276 million dip in revenue, its H1 financials indicate an underlying loss before tax of US$ 100 million versus a profit of US$ 4 million in the same period last year. The Co-op is the seventh largest grocery chain in the UK, with a 5.4% market share. Furthermore, it has 2.4k retail stores and employs 53k and also has other business interests including funeral care, legal and insurance. Foodservice operations include third-party brands such as Costa Express and Rollover hot dogs as well as Co-op owned brands including Ever Ground Coffee, a Fairtrade coffee brand.

Another UK company involved in a cyberattack, this time last month, was Jaguar Land Rover which was forced to suspend production and shut down its IT networks. This week, it announced Its factories remain suspended until next month at the earliest, and probably not until November, leading to fears that some suppliers, mainly smaller ones who solely rely on JLR’s business, could go bust without support. The Indian Tata-owned carmaker would normally be building 1k vehicles every day at three of its UK factories, and this continued closure will directly impact thirty thousand workers and an estimated one hundred thousand more suppliers and other stakeholders. The UK close-down could be costing JLR US$ 65 million every week, with itsplants in Slovakia and China also impacted.

In the UK, the Intellectual Property Office posted that of the 259k fake toys it had already seized, (with Christmas less than three months away), 75% failed critical safety tests and 91.1% of the total were Labubu dolls These Chinese-made cheeky-looking, sharp-toothed soft toys resembling a bear, have become very popular and difficult to obtain so they are proving tb be a godsend for the fakers. However, there are reports that some of the fakes pose a potentially fatal choking hazard for children.

Two years after its parent company Bud Light brand saw Budweiser losing its number one position as the best-selling beer in the US, its new brand, Michelob Ultra, has taken over the top slot. In 2023, Anheuser-Busch’s Bud Light brand’s sales slumped, after a boycott over its work with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney and the subsequent consumer backlash. Data from Circana indicates that Michelob Ultra overtook Modelo Especial in US retail sales by volume in the year to 14 September. Constellation, which owns Modelo and Corona, has previously blamed its falling beer sales on tougher US immigration policies causing a drop in Hispanic consumers in the US. It is not only Constellation sales, (of which 50% come from Hispanic drinkers), that have been so impacted. About half of the Constellation’s sales come from Hispanic people in the US, Coca-Cola and Colgate-Palmolive have also noted a slump in North American sales from that socio-group. Overall, the US beer industry has seen slowing sales over the past four decades.

Starbucks has announced that nine hundred US jobs will be lost saying it will cut about nine hundred US jobs as well as the closure of its worst performing stores there, and some UK stores as part of a cost-saving move. Earlier in the year, it posted that it would be axing some 1.1k jobs. However, it said that it would still be opening eighty new stores in the UK, and a further one hundred and fifty across EMEA but “some stores in the UK, Switzerland and Austria will close as a result of this portfolio review”. In a letter to employees, its chief executive, Brian Niccol, said that the stores marked for closure were “unable to create the physical environment our customers and partners expect, or where we don’t see a path to financial performance”.

Yesterday, the US President signed an executive order declaring that his plan to sell Chinese-owned TikTok’s US operations to American and global investors, with his VP, JD Vance, confirming its value at US$ 14 billion. (TikTok was estimated to be worth US$ 30 billion to US$ 40 billion, without the algorithm as of April 2025). Trump delayed until 20 January enforcement of the law that bans the app unless its Chinese owners sell it amid efforts to extract TikTok’s US assets from the global platform, line up American and other investors, and win approval from the Chinese government. Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated approval of the plans, and that Michael Dell, Rupert Murdoch and “probably four or five absolutely world-class investors” would be part of the deal. Vance had earlier commented that “there was some resistance on the Chinese side, but the fundamental thing that we wanted to accomplish is that we wanted to keep TikTok operating, but we also wanted to make sure that we protected Americans’ data privacy as required by law”. One question remains unanswered – will ByteDance retain control of the algorithm?

Last month, US house sales of new homes rose 20.5%, to an annual rate of 800k – and at its fastest rate since early 2022. The much-improved figures were well above market expectation and has brought life to a previous lacklustre market. It will be good news for US builders who had been left with an oversupply of newly built residences which has been reinvigorated by a combination of price reductions, (by some 39% of homebuilders), sales incentives and easing borrowing costs. However, overall housing is still much in the doldrums, bearing in mind that new homes only account for 14% of the US home sales. Mortgage rates are still at double the pandemic rates which brings into the equation the affordability issue, exacerbated by a weakening labour market – all factors that seem to point to no immediate improvement in the short-term. Q4 will show whether August new home sales were just a spike and whether the rest of the market remains moribund.

Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, coming into force on 01 October, include a 100% levy on branded or patented drug imports, unless a company is building a factory in the US, as well as a 25% import tax on all heavy-duty trucks and 50% levies on kitchen and bathroom cabinets. The President commented that the main reason for these latest levies was “the large scale ‘FLOODING’ of these products into the United States by other outside Countries”. The impact will be felt by the likes of the UK, (which exported more than US$ 6.0 billion worth of pharma products to the US last year), Ireland, Germany, Switzerland and Japan. However, it seems that exemptions will be available to those firms producing generic drugs and to those firms building factories in the US.

Data from the Commerce Department indicated that the US Q2 economy grew faster, by 0.5% to 3.8%, than previously thought, attributable to robust consumer spending and falling imports; this followed a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. In Q2, consumer spending rose by 2.5%, on the year, from a previous estimate of 1.6%, as companies rushed in imports to get ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which chipped away at GDP. August retail sales rose 0.6%, on the month, beating expectations. These impressive returns are in contrast to Labor Department August figures which showed that just twenty-two thousand jobs had been created and that the unemployment figure had nudged 0.1% higher to 4.3%. However, this could have just been a blip as latest figures show that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to their lowest level since July.

The OECD is set to forecast that the UK will post the highest rate of inflation of all the G7 advanced economies – at 3.5% this year, driven by higher food costs; the 2026 forecast comes in at 2.7%. However, it deemed to increase its forecast slightly for UK growth this year to 1.4%, but the economy is still expected to slow, to 1.0%, next year. This is probably news that will disturb the thoughts of Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of this week’s Party conference and the upcoming November budget where she will have to pull more than a few rabbits out of her hat, as she still hopes to stick to her own rules of government. This will restrict her thinking to a combination of higher taxes, (maybe as high as US$ 40.0 billion), and/or lower public spending. How did she Mess It Up?

There Are More Questions Than Answers!                            05 September 2025

Despite recent mumblings by some doomsayers that the Dubai property sector was heading for a correction of some 15%, actual figures, from the Dubai Land Department, have proved otherwise. Eight-month YTD data to August show that the record-breaking run continues unabated, with both transaction volumes and actual values up by 21.5% to 112.6k and by 33.7% to US$ 120.22 billion; the value figure already accounts for 84% of the twelve=month total for 2024. August monthly results show sales of US$ 13.80 billion – a major improvement on August figures of the past when in August 2020, sales came to just US$ 1.2 million which rose by to US$ 6.62 billion in 2022. The five leading locations, with the highest sales, accounting for 19.36%, (US$ 23.68 billion) of the total were:

Business Bay                                             US$ 6.60 billion

Me’aisem Second                                    US$ 4.83 billion

Al Yalayis 1                                               US$ 4.35 billion

Jumeirah Village Circle                       US$ 4.15 billion

Airport City                                               US$ 3.75 billion

Total transactions for both residential and commercial properties have jumped by 21.5% to 137.1k deals, whilst overall real estate activity, including mortgages and grants, was 24.2% higher on the year at US$ 162.12 billion, across over 177k transactions. Mortgage activity nudged 3.2% higher, to US$ 32.70 billion, with property grants at US$ 9.11 billion. 

CBRE’s UAE Real Estate Market Review Q2 2025, reaffirms that the state of Dubai realty continues its robust position, backed up by the same four drivers – positive foreign investment, an uptick in oil production, a buoyant economy and an improved growth outlook. Its residential, office and industrial sectors continue in high mode. Dubai Land Department statistics show that it took sixty-two days this year, 04 March, to reach property sales of US$ 272.48 million, (AED 100.0 billion); this landmark was reached on 22 March last year and on 11 April a year earlier. Dubai’s property sales grew by 40% in H1 to US$ 89.00 billion, This upward trajectory continued through until the end of August, with that month’s property sales posting US$ 13.9 billion – 7.9% higher on the year – and transactions 15% higher at 18.68k; apartment sales accounted for 59.1%, (US$ 8.23 billion), of the total August balance.

The Dubai real estate market recorded property sales worth US$ 13.92 billion in August, a 7.9% increase on the same month last year, with the total number of transactions rising 15.4%, on the year to 18.7k. Over the past five years, August returns have been:

2020       US$ 1.28 billion                     2.5k transactions                  US$ 225 per sq ft

2021       US$ 4.09 billion                     5.8k transactions                  US$ 275 per sq ft                

2022       US$ 6.38 billion                     9.4k transactions                  US$ 311 per sq ft                

2023       US$ 9.15 billion                     11.9k transactions               US$ 384 per sq ft

2024       US$ 11.92 billion                  16.2k transactions               US$ 407 per sq ft

fäm Properties posted that apartment sales were worth US$ 8.23 billion, climbed 29.2% in volume to 15.9k, compared to August 2024, with commercial sales  20.4% higher at U$ 327 million and a 7.4% hike in volume involving three hundred and ninety-two plots. Villa sales, worth US$ 2.97 billion, were 38.1% down in volume, on the year, to 1.94k; the average property price per sq ft jumped by 15.2% to US$ 469. The overall number of property deals was the third highest this year following 20.32k in July and 18.69k in May. Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, noted that “the city’s sustained growth is cementing its position as a leading destination for property investment, drawing increasing international attention while domestic and regional demand stays strong”.

This week saw a record sale on Palm Jumeirah making it the most expensive secondary villa sold on the island this year. A Signature Villa garnered US$ 44 million, with a US$ 4k per sq ft price. The 10.9k sq ft residence featured six expansive bedroom suites, multiple living and entertainment spaces, a pool deck and refined interiors.  There have been higher sales recorded this year, with the three highest being three villas – the Emirates Hills villa, The Marble Palace, sold for US$ 116 million, Jumeirah Bay Island – US$ 90 million, and Palm Jumeirah – US$ 82 million. There is no doubt that Dubai’s ultra luxury real estate sector is booming for a myriad of reasons including:

• influx of high-net-worth individuals relocating to the UAE
• strong demand for beachfront and branded residences
• limited supply of ultra-prime homes on key islands

but there will be some watching whether this will continue at such a pace going into Q4.

It seems that Burj Khalifa’s record of being the tallest building in the world, at eight hundred and twenty-eight mt, will come to an end, with Saudi Arabia planning to build two higher skyscrapers – the US$ five billion Riyadh’s Rise Tower, at an astonishing two km, and Jeddah Tower, due to surpass one km, will be completed by 2028. Also, a wild bet would be the upcoming Burj Azizi, in Dubai, scheduled to be completed by 2028; it was supposedly set at seven hundred and twenty-five mt but it could surprise the market if its height topped one km.

The Dubai Rental Disputes Centre, established in 2013, has had a busy Q2 with finalising four hundred and forty-three reconciliation agreements, worth some US$ 54 million On a monthly basis, from April to June, there were one hundred and forty-four, one hundred and ninety-one and one hundred eight, with settlements of US$ 12 million, US$ 7 million and US$ 35 million.

Judge Abdulqader Mousa Mohammed, Chairman of RDC, said “these achievements prove our unwavering commitment to enhancing judicial efficiency and promoting friendly colony mechanisms that deliver justice and uphold the rights of all parties involved. Guided by the vision of Dubai’s leadership, we aim to foster a safe and attractive property market for both investors and residents, while offering innovative solutions that reinforce stability and balance the interests of landlords and tenants alike.”

Dubai continues to enhance its reputation as a premier global destination for events and business tourism. Over the next four months, there will be one hundred and thirty-five exhibitions, conferences, and industry-related events, covering a diverse spectrum from technology, sustainability, and healthcare to food and beverage, energy, construction, transport, finance, and education.

Dubai Airports have announced that its “Red Carpet” corridor has been officially installed to fast-track passport control procedures. Using AI and biometrics, it is the first-of-its-kind in the world, which will see the process seamless and, notwithstanding special cases, will be completed without any stops or documents being presented; this ‘corridor’ will be able to deal with ten passengers which will take between six and fourteen seconds. Such initiatives will ensure that the world’s busiest airport for international flights will maintain its position and further enhance its global leadership in smart travel.

Issued under Binghatti’s US$ 1.5 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme, the Dubai-based developer listed its second five-year US$ 500 million Sukuk by Binghatti Holding on Nasdaq Duba, priced at a profit rate of 8.125%; it was oversubscribed five times. The sukuk is also listed on the London Stock Exchange.: With this listing, the bourse’s total Sukuk listings total US$ 98.6 billion, across one hundred and eight listings, confirming its position as one of the world’s leading venues for Sukuk.

The UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, was in India this week to review the achievements of the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which came into force in 2022; he discussed on expanding opportunities for sectors that can further benefit from its market access provisions. He noted that “in the first half of 2025, our bilateral non-oil trade reached US$ 37.6 billion, a 33.9% rise, compared to the same period last year. This is a significant step towards the ambitious targets we set in 2022. It is vital that we continue to leverage our complementary strengths and deliver broad-based opportunities for our private sectors”.

With the Indian rupee falling to a record low, at 88.3075 to the greenback, and 24.03 to the AED, there has been a surge in the number of remittances from expats cashing in on the news; for example, Ansari Exchange has noted a 15% in transfers to India. Some experts see further turbulence in the forex market, now that Trump tariffs have been levied at 50% for the world’s fourth-largest economy; other factors such as fiscal uncertainty, trade headwinds and portfolio outflows. It is expected that it is still too early for the Reserve Bank of India to intervene as a falling rupee makes Indian exports cheaper. Its recent economic news is more than acceptable – in Q2, it grew 7.8% on the year, and 0.4% on the quarter, but from now on, it is certain to head south. Remittances from the Gulf collectively account for more than 30% of India’s global inflows, as the World Bank estimates that India received a record US$ 125 billion in remittances in 2024.

InterNations’ Expat Insider 2025 survey found that 18.0% of expats expressed a desire to stay in the UAE permanently, with a further 39% still undecided about their long-term plans. Some of the reasons given  were the UAE’s high quality of life, safety, security, and ease of settling. The survey, encompassing some one hundred and ninety nations, placed the UAE seventh in the list of best countries in which to live.  The survey noted that the three main motivations for relocating here were job opportunities, international recruitment, and the pursuit of a better quality of life, with the top three industries employing expats being finance, hospitality, and construction. The country was ranked the best country globally for expatriate essentials – which include housing, digital infrastructure, and administrative services – and second best for overall quality of life, along with being fourth globally for safety and security, and sixth for leisure options. Globally, the top ten best countries for expats in 2025 are: Panama, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam, China, UAE, Indonesia, Spain, and Malaysia and at the other end of the spectrum were Kuwait, Türkiye, South Korea, Finland, Germany, the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and Italy.

New guidelines, issued by the Dubai Corporation for Consumer Protection and Fair Trade, aim to ensure that online food delivery platforms eliminate hidden fees and improve transparency, to protect consumers and raise industry standards. It requires online food delivery companies to clearly break down all delivery and service charges, as well as forbidding “hidden” fees. Its publication was to ensure online food delivery companies remain transparent and fair in their platforms, maintain high business standards, and attract further investment in the online food delivery sector. The general transparency requirements are as follows:

• food delivery platforms must use plain, clear and easily understood language
• platforms must clearly display all disclosures that are easily noticeable
• disclosures must be presented equally, no matter the platform versions (web, mobile apps, tablets) and operating systems (iOS, Android)
• information cannot be hidden or left out, which can affect the customer’s choices

UK media is reporting that dnata is looking at divesting four of its UK-based leisure businesses, including:

Netflights                                 sells tailor-made holidays into the travel trade         

Travel Republic                     one of UK’s leading online travel agents

Gold Medal                              offers a range of budget flights, package holidays and car hire

Travel Republic                     offers premium package holidays

Collectively, the four businesses account for transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually. A statement from a dnata Travel Group spokesperson commented that “dnata Travel Group has started a process to explore strategic options for four UK-based leisure brands.     .    .  The move is part of a broader strategic effort to align the group’s portfolio with its long-term business priorities and evolving market dynamics. No decisions have been made regarding the future ownership structure of the businesses”

There is bound to be a last-minute rush for many Dubai-based companies, with a 31 December reporting period, with press reports that the last-minute dash to prepare their tax returns, by 30 September, who are getting hit with significant fees hikes from auditors taking on these projects. Because this will be many companies’ first tax return, there will be increased reliance on additional help from auditors and tax consultants and there is an obvious imbalance between supply and demand which will result in an inevitable fee hike. According to the FTA, businesses must pay the corporate tax within a period not exceeding nine months from the end of the Tax Period for each registrant. There is a US$ 2.7k penalty for non-compliance.

On 01 August 2015, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. The approved fuel prices by the Ministry of Energy are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. After two months of almost unchanged prices, September saw marginal monthly increases for petrol whilst diesel prices headed 5.6% higher. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for September is as follows:

Super 98     US$ 0.736 from US$ 0.736     in Sep       flat    3.1% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.703 from US$ 0.703      in Sep      flat    2.8% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.684 from US$ 0.684      in Sep      flat    2.9% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.717 from US$ 0.725      in Sep    down   0.7% YTD US$ 0.730

Majid Al Futtaim released H1 figures showing a 6.3% downturn in net profit at US$ 409 million, and increases in revenue and EBITDA – by 3.0% to US$ 4.71 billion and by 9.0% to US$ 627 million. The MAF Group, currently on a US$ 1.36 billion investment at its flagship Mall of the Emirates, had a US$ 300 million in free cash flow and had reduced its net debt to US$ 3.65 billion, which came through ‘effective capital management and allocation’. At the end of 30 June, total assets were valued at US$ 19.18 billion, with a net debt-to-equity improving by 38% on the year.

Following Board approval, Tecom Group has approved capex of US$ 436 million to acquire one hundred and thirty-eight land plots, spanning thirty-three million sq ft, from Dubai Holding Asset Management. This purchase, raising the Group’s land portfolio to over two hundred and nine million sq ft, will see more manufacturing and logistics companies beginning operations in Dubai Industrial City; this location is currently operating at an occupancy level of 99%. Abdulla Belhoul, Chief Executive Officer of Tecom Group PJSC commented that “this strategic acquisition reaffirms Dubai Industrial City’s significant role in advancing the country’s manufacturing sector and serving growing demand from existing and new customers”. This latest expansion, engineered by the Group’s subsidiary, Dubai Industrial City LLC, follows Tecom Group’s acquisition of 13.9 million sq ft of land in Dubai Industrial City last year, which has been fully leased out to leading customers across six vital sectors served by the district, such as F&B, base metals and transport. H1 financials saw 21% and 22% rises in the Group’s revenue and net profit to US$ 381 million and US$ 201 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 01 September on 6,064 points, and having shed one hundred and forty-two points (2.3%), the previous four weeks, fell seventy-five points (1.2%), to close the shortened trading week, (in observance of the Prophet Muhammad’s (PBUH) birthday), on 5,989 points, by Thursday 04 September 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 lower the previous week, shed US$ 0.01 to close on US$ 3.91 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.88, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.46 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.80, US$ 2.57 and US$ 0.45. On 04 September, trading was at one hundred and thirty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-two million dollars, compared to fifty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and sixty-three million dollars on 29 August 2025.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 August at 6,064, was 2,001 points (49.2%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.76, to close on 31 August at US$ 3.92. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$  0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed August 2025 at US$ 0.75, US$ 6.88, US$ 2.63 and US$ 0.46.  

By 05 September 2025, Brent, US$ 3.62 higher (5.6%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 3.05 (4.5%) to close on US$ 65.13. Gold, US$ 17 (5.0%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 156 (4.7%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,654 on 05 September.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 5.60 (7.5%), to close 31 August 2025 on US$ 69.21. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of August, the yellow metal had gained US$ 679 (27.4%) and was trading at US$ 3,343.

Strong cargo and passenger numbers were recorded in July. IATA showed that total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, rose by 5.5%, on the year (6.0% for international operations), with capacity 3.9% higher. Most trade lanes posted significant growth, with the main exception being Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0%, driven by the expiry of the US de minimis exemptions on small shipments. This fall in transactions has been partly offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August returns will give a clearer indication on the tariff impact. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted that ‘’while much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked twenty-nine months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July”. Two factors that had an impact on these returns were the global goods trade growing 3.1% on the year and the
jet fuel price was 9.1% lower – having been below 2024 levels so far this year. ME carriers saw a 2.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in July, as capacity increased by 5.9% year-on-year.

July total global passenger demand was 4.0% higher on the year, with total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, was up 4.4% year-on-year, and load factor  0.4% lower at 85.5%, compared to July 2024. When comparing international and domestic demand figures, the former is well ahead with an increase of 5.3%, capacity – 5.8% and load factor – 85.6%, compared to 1.9%, 2.4% and 85.2%. (“RPK” stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometres, a key metric in the aviation industry that measures the volume of passenger traffic by multiplying the number of paying passengers by the distance. they travelled). International RPK growth reached 5.3% in July year-on-year, but load factors fell in all regions except Africa. Domestic RPK rose 1.9% over July 2024. and load factor fell by 0.4 ppt to 85.2% on the back of a 2.4% capacity expansion. There was a 5.3% hike for ME carriers, with capacity up 5.6%, whilst the load factor was 0.2% lower at 84.1%.

His dismissal adds him to a growing list of top executives forced to resign following investigations into their relationships with colleagues, including BP’s former CEO Bernard Looney, Andy Byron, the CEO of Astronomer, and McDonald’s CEO Steve Easterbrook. Its CEO, Laurent Freixe, has been dismissed after an investigation into an undisclosed “romantic relationship”; it is reported that the lady involved was promoted. Freixe, who spent thirty-nine years with Nestle, will receive no exit package. The embattled Swiss food giant, struggling from the Trump tariffs, years of underperformance, slowing sales and worsening investor confidence, needs his replacement, Nespresso chief Philipp Navratil, to hit the ground running.  He will have to lift the top line numbers, reduce costs, cut payroll and focus more on emerging markets. Earlier in the year, Paul Bulcke announced he would step down next year. Over the last five years, the Swiss behemoth has seen its share value cut by more than a third and during the twelve months, when Freixe was in charge, Nestle’s market cap slipped 17%.

It appears that the pension trust of German automaker Mercedes-Benz has sold its 3.8% stake in Japan’s Nissan Motor for US$ 325 million. They were sold at a 5.98% discount. The struggling Japanese carmaker, whose share value fell 6.0% on the news, had booked a US$ 535 million loss in Q2. Investors are concerned that Nissan is failing in its strategy to turn the company’s fortune for the better and needs to improve sales in its key markets of the US and China.

A Washington US District Judge has decided that Google will not have to divest its Chrome browser, whilst ordering the tech giant to share data with rivals to open up competition in online search. It also allows Google to keep making lucrative payments to Apple that antitrust enforcers said froze out search rivals.  This rare court victory for the industry saw Google parent Alphabet’s shares up 7.2% in extended trading on Tuesday, whilst Apple shares were 3.0% to the good. Judge Amit Mehta also ruled Google could keep its Android operating system, which together with Chrome help drive Google’s market-dominating online advertising business. Last year, the same judge ruled that Google held an illegal monopoly in online search and related advertising.  

A decade after consolidating, Kraft Heinz is to split into two separate companies, expected to be completed in H2 2026, which will then see:

Global Taste Elevation Co – managing high-demand, flagship brands like Heinz ketchup, Kraft Mac & Cheese, and Philadelphia cream cheese

North American Grocery Co – overseeing longer-standing but slower-growing brands such as Oscar Mayer, Maxwell House coffee, Kraft Singles, and Lunchables

The brands themselves are expected to remain available in stores worldwide. Moody’s has placed Kraft Heinz’s credit rating under review, assessing how the split might impact the companies’ debt and financial stability. The current company employs 36k but there will be job losses during the transition. Kraft Heinz is not the only Group to have carried out divestments – others include Kellogg, Mars and Unilever.

Reports indicate that the McLaren Group’s owners – Bahrain’s SWF, Mumtalakat, and Abu Dhabi-based automotive investment group CYVN Holdings – are to acquire the remaining 30% stake, they do not own. The minority stakeholders include MSP Sports Capital, Ares Investment Management, UBS O’Connor and a number of other small shareholders. This would value the McLaren Formula One team at over US$ 4.06 billion in a deal that will reap a welcome return for the investors, including MSP Sports Capital, who bought an initial 15% stake in McLaren Racing, valuing a post-money valuation of US$ 758 million, in 2020, which helped bail out its parent company during the pandemic. There is no doubt that McLaren Racing has recovered well from the dismal days of five years ago and only last weekend McLaren driver Oscar Piastri won the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, giving the race team favourite status to win this year’s F1 constructors’ championship. (“RPK” stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometres, a key metric in the aviation industry that measures the volume of passenger traffic by multiplying the number of paying passengers by the distance they travelled).

China’s August purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing sector nudged 0.1 higher to 49.4. Manufacturing production has picked up pace rising 0.3 to 50.8 – its fourth consecutive month of expansion. On the demand side, the sub-index for new orders was up 0.1, to 49.5, up from 49.4, but was still in negative territory. Some key sectors moved northwards in positive territory – high-tech manufacturing, at 51.9, and equipment manufacturing at 50.5. A more positive market outlook was indicated by the production and business activity expectations 1.1 higher to 53.7.

In August, the Republic of Korea’s exports grew 1.3%, on the year, attributable to strong demand for semiconductors, and for the third consecutive month, outbound shipments were  valued at US$ 58.4 billion. With imports decreasing 4.0%, on the year, to US$ 51.89 billion, there was a trade surplus of US$ 6.51 billion.

The number of July foreign tourists arriving in Republic of Korea jumped 23% on the year, with over 1.73 million visitors – and up 119.7%, compared to the pre-pandemic tally in July 2019. 52.0% of the visitors originated from China and Japan, with totals of 34.7% and 17.3%. The number of H1 foreign visitors between January and July rose 15.9% on the year to 10.56 million. The number of South Koreans travelling abroad during the first seven months of this year reached seventeen million, representing 96.3% of the figure recorded during the same period in 2019.

Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an order to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile  imports, (down 12.5% to 15.0%), and other products that were announced in July. The deal will ensure that Japan will always receive the lowest tariff rate on chips and pharmaceuticals of all the pacts negotiated by Washington. It also confirms an agreement for US$ 550 billion of Japanese investment in US projects, there would be no tariffs on commercial planes and parts and that the 15% levy on Japanese imports agreed in July would not be stacked on top of those already subject to higher tariffs, such as beef. However, items previously subject to tariffs below 15% would be adjusted to 15%.

On the other side of the coin, Japan will be “working toward an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of United States rice procurements… and purchases of United States agricultural goods, including corn, soybeans, fertiliser, bioethanol (including for sustainable aviation fuel)” and other US products totalling US$ 8 billion per year. It will also acquire one hundred Boeing planes and push defence spending 21.4% higher to an annual US$ 17.0 billion.

Rival exporter South Korea is still waiting on an executive order covering a similar trade agreement with the US, including a 15% tariff on US imports from automakers like Hyundai and Kia, down from 25%. 

The Japanese government confirmed its previous commitment to invest US$ 550 billion in the US in projects that will be selected by the US government; the financing will come in the form of equity, loans and guarantees from Japan’s government-owned banks. Last year, bilateral trade came in at around US$ 230 billion, with Japan’s trade surplus standing at US$ 70 billion.

Since the start of sanctions imposed by western powers on Russia, because of its role in the war with Ukraine, that country has had various agreements in place to supply natural gas to China. Now a deal to supply more natural gas to China has been signed but pricing has yet to be agreed for one of the world’s most expensive gas projects, Power of Siberia 2 – a sign that China’s President Xi Jinping could be holding out for bigger discounts.  It is estimated that the new pipeline is capable of delivering fifty billion cu mt per year to China, through Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal. Alexei Miller, the CEO of Gazprom, noted that “today, a legally binding memorandum was signed on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and the Soyuz Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia”. Despite the relevant leaders being in Beijing earlier in the week, it is still not known who will build or finance the project. It is estimated that China is Russia’s biggest trading partner, the biggest purchaser of Russian crude and Russian gas, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian coal and the third-biggest purchaser of Russian LNG.

To try and lessen the impact that Trump 50% tariffs will have on the Indian economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items ranging from soaps to small cars to spur domestic demand. The Indian GST panel has approved lowering taxes, on the so-called common man items, and simplifying their structure, (from four rates of between 12% and 28% to two of 5% and 18%). Examples include toothpaste and shampoo dropping from 18% to 5%, small cars, air conditioners, and televisions from 28% to 18% and individual life insurance policies and health insurance being exempt. A higher 40% rate has been levied on “super luxury” and “sin” goods such as cigarettes, cars with engine capacity exceeding 1500 cc, and carbonated beverages,

Late last week, in a 7-4 decision, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that most of Trump tariffs are illegal, but the ruling is stayed until 14 October. The latest development will inevitably result in the case going to the nine-man Supreme Court, which has six Republican appointees, including thee selected by Trump himself. However, it is true that recent history has seen that court would have to decide whether the tariffs are not another example of overreach. The case is now almost certain to head to the Supreme Court, which has in recent years taken a sceptical view toward presidents who try to implement sweeping new policies that are not directly authorised by Congress. Joe Biden did try unsuccessfully to limit greenhouse gas emissions by power plants and to forgive student loan debt for millions of Americans. The court could of course decide that his actions were backed by the law or within presidential authority. In the current case, the court ruled that the tariffs were “invalid as contrary to law”, and that setting levies were  “a core Congressional power”, with Trump having argued that they were valid, citing that a trade imbalance was harmful to US national security, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the President the power to act against “unusual and extraordinary” threats.

According to Nationwide, August year-on-year house prices dipped 0.3% on the month to 2.1%, with the average house valued at US$ 366k, as house prices slipped by 0.1% on the month. UK’s largest building society noted that, “the relatively subdued pace of house price growth is perhaps understandable, given that affordability remains stretched relative to long-term norms. House prices are still high compared to household incomes, making raising a deposit challenging for prospective buyers, especially given the intense cost of living pressures in recent years.” Meanwhile, the Halifax posted that August UK house prices headed north for the third consecutive month to a new record high – by 0.3% on the month, 2.2% on the year – to US$ 403k. It noted that the annual rate had dipped by 0.3% to 2.2% from July’s 2.5%. The country’s housing market had shown a marked rise in prices in Q1, (when buyers sought to take advantage of the final months of a tax break on property purchases), but since then prices have eased. Take your pick!

Data from property search website Rightmove indicates that UK average housing rents have jumped 2.9%, on the year, (and 46.0% from the beginning of the pandemic), to US$ 2.12k per calendar month. The sector has been hit by the whammy of a shortage of available homes, which could be exacerbated by looming changes to taxes and laws for landlords. 

Another body blow for the UK Chancellor, with news that yields on thirty-year debt rose by 0.06% to top 5.70% – its highest level since 1998!  This means that the UK government will have to pay a premium on any new debt it takes on board, at a time when Rachel Reeves is struggling to pull in the public finances but now having to pay higher interest charges. The initial reaction was the sell off of sterling, seeing its worst day in three months. The latest gilt auction attracted record investor interest for a ten-year bond, with the government having to pay a premium of 0.082% over the existing benchmark to raise US$ 18.83 billion in debt. If the Treasury does not soon come up with a workable scheme to control spending in an environment of a weak sterling and rising borrowing costs and a future of certain tax increase at the November budget which would have a negative impact on economic growth.

On Tuesday, sterling managed to shed 2.17% to US$ 1.336 but it is still well above its level of US$ 1.31 posted in early September 2024, and higher than the vast majority of the past year. The fall was replicated with the euro too. The government’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), takes borrowing costs into account when seeing whether the Chancellor is meeting her self-imposed fiscal rules. Since the start of her ‘reign’, she set out two rules on government borrowing, which she has repeatedly said are “non-negotiable”:

• day-to-day government costs will be paid for by tax income, rather than borrowing by 2029-30
• to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament in 2029-30

It is estimated that she is under pressure because her financial buffer to stick to these rules is a relatively meagre US$ 13.45 billion, and she may have to raise taxes in her long-awaited November budget. The fact that the Chancellor Reeves will have to raise up to US$ 38.0 billion in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules, and to maintain her buffer. That being the case, it is all but inevitable that she will be knocking on the doors of banks and households, at a time when investors are running scared that the government is losing its grip on the public finances. Having promised not to raise taxes, such as income tax, VAT or national insurance on “working people”, she is obviously limited in deciding what to tax. Three possibilities are banks, gambling and freezing income tax thresholds – the latter works that over time, with wages rising, some taxpayers will be dragged into a higher tax rate boosting public revenue. There had also been reports that Reeves is considering reforming property taxes, but recent events, involving the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Housing, may see her leaving that sector well alone. She will also be relieved to see that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned because she may have been in line for a letter from Kier Starmer.

Following the Labour Party’s general election success, Angela Rayner was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister of the UK and Secretary State for Housing, Communities and Local Government. In March 2024, there was an allegation, by a Tory grandee, that Rayner had misled tax officials in the sale of her council house in 2015, with Rayner saying that she had done nothing wrong, and declined to publish her tax records or tax advice. Ultimately, HMRC confirmed that she was in the clear. In June 2024, Labour life peer, Baron Alli had given Rayner gifts worth US$ 5k of clothes – she later announced she would no longer accept clothes from donors. Later in the year, it was reported that she faced an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner over the use of Baron Alli’s US$ 2.5 million New York apartment. Late last month, The Daily Telegraph had reported that she avoided nearly US$ 54k in stamp duty when buying a second home after telling tax authorities it was her main home.

In August 2025, it was reported that Rayner had removed her name from the deeds of her constituency residence in Ashton-under-Lyne weeks before purchasing her US$ 1.07 million seafront flat in Hove in May 2025, reportedly reducing her stamp duty liability on the purchase by US$ 54k. There are also reports that she split the ownership of her US$ 870k constituency home with a trust administered by law firm Shoosmiths. However, for Council Tax purposes the Ashton-under-Lyne home continued to be her primary residence meaning the Hove flat was the only property she owned. However, Ms Rayner also previously indicated the Greater Manchester home remained her primary residence, according to the Daily Telegraph, saving some US$ 2.7k in council tax on her grace and favour home in central London at Admiralty House.

At the beginning of the week, the Rayner saga hit newspaper headlines, with reports that she had determined that both her private homes, (a family residence in Ashton under Lyne and an apartment in Hove acquired last May), qualified for the status, but for different levies. It is reported that she had advised Brighton & Hove council that her new flat was her second property for council tax purposes.  On Monday, a Downing Street spokesman commented that there was a court order which restricted her from providing further information over her tax affairs “which she’s urgently working on rectifying in the interests of public transparency”, but rejected that the newly appointed Darren Jones, asnew ministerial role of chief secretary to the prime minister, would be a de facto deputy prime minister.

At her behest, the court order was lifted on Tuesday and on Wednesday she was interviewed by Sky News’ Beth Rigby where she admitted that she had not paid enough tax on her home in Hove but had followed legal advice, saying “I acknowledge that due to my reliance on advice from lawyers which did not properly take account of these provisions, I did not pay the appropriate stamp duty at the time of the purchase. I deeply regret the error that has been made. I am committed to resolving this matter fully and providing the transparency that public service demands.” After that recording, Verrico & Associates confirmed that “we acted for Ms Rayner when she purchased the flat in Hove. We did not and never have given tax or trust advice. It’s something we always refer our clients to an accountant or tax expert for. The stamp duty for the Hove flat was calculated using HMRC’s own online calculator, based on the figures and the information provided by Ms Rayner. That’s what we used, and it told us we had to pay GBP 30k, (US$ 40k), based on the information provided to us. We believe that we did everything correctly and in good faith. Everything was exactly as it should be.”

Rayner said she had contacted HMRC to work out the tax she needed to pay and referred herself for investigation by the PM’s standards adviser. Her admission of an extra tax liability was damaging for the deputy prime minister, who was prominent in attacking the conduct of Tory ministers before Labour took office last year.

By then, it was for Sir Laurie Magnus, the adviser on ministerial standards, to “establish all the facts” about whether she was given incorrect advice, as she says, if she acted properly or not, and if there was a case for her to answer. He had to assess whether Ms Rayner had broken ministerial rules, which place an “overarching duty on ministers to comply with the law”, “behave in a way that upholds the highest standards of propriety”, and “be as open as possible” with the public. The end came quickly, and this afternoon in his letter to the prime minister, Sir Laurie said it was “deeply regrettable” that Rayner had not sought the correct tax advice, adding that if she had it would be “likely” that the higher levy would have been paid. He concluded that “the responsibility of any taxpayer for reporting their tax returns and settling their liabilities rests ultimately on themselves alone.”  It will not put this issue to bed and just as there were so many questions at the beginning of the week, by today, There Are More Questions Than Answers!

When Will It Ever End?                                                              22 August 2025        

Data from Betterhomes show that the total number of July sales transactions surged by 20.5%, to 18.82k, with a total value, 10.6% higher, of US$ 13.98 billion; the July average price per sq ft climbed 3.3% on the month, to US$ 516. Average sale prices were at US$ 542k for apartments, US$ 886k for townhouses, and US$ 2.64 million for villas. The agency posted strong activity in off-plan and secondary sales as well as robust tenant demand in key communities – off plan sales were 3% higher on the month at 65%. The top-performing villa communities, by transaction volume, were The Wilds, Grand Polo Club & Resort, and The Oasis, while Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, and Damac Riverside led the apartment segment. Betterhomes’ Off-Plan Sales Manager, Chirine El Sebai, commented that “the continued strength of Dubai’s off-plan sector shows enduring confidence in the city’s long-term growth”.

In July, the emirate’s residential market posted a 3.4% hike in rental transactions to 39.25k, with new contracts accounting for 40% of the total, compared to 37% a year earlier. The average rental price stood at US$ 19.6k for apartments, US$ 46.9k for townhouses, and US$ 69.5k for villas. The biggest rental growth for apartments and villas was Al Khail Heights, with a monthly growth of 1.5%, to an annual US$ 18.4k, and for villas, Jumeirah, with a 4.2% rental hike to US$ 135.7k. The most active villa leasing communities were Mirdif, Damac Hills 2 and Jumeirah, while Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Silicon Oasis, and Business Bay topped the apartment segment.

July saw 4.89k mortgage transaction volumes, 9.2% higher on the month, with many taking advantage of the lower interest rates. Property Monitor posted that there was a 2.3% monthly rise in new purchase money mortgages accounting for 45.6% of activity, with average loan amounts of US$ 490k, with the average loan-to-value ratio nudging up 0.2% to 73.7%. The consultancy does note that “price growth remains positive, and transaction volumes are on pace to break new records, yet the pace of new supply – particularly from the off-plan segment – raises questions about the market’s capacity to absorb this wave in a sustainable manner”. This concern is based on their estimate that 93k units have been launched in the first seven months of 2025, and that increase inventory sees buyer selectivity rising and that the persistence of lower loan-to-value ratios suggests that affordability pressures may start to shape demand more directly in the months ahead. Noting that the market continues to show a range of resilient lending, rising transaction volumes, robust off-plan demand and inventory supply still not meeting current demand, the short to medium term for the Dubai real estate market outlook is positive. Prices will continue their upward momentum, albeit at a slower pace.

Emirates Hills was the location for a record price – of US$ 71 million – for a single plot villa in Dubai’s ultra-prime property market. Spanning 50k sq ft, the seven-bedroom villa is located on Emirates Hills’ ‘Golden Mile’, with views over the lakes and the Address Montgomerie golf course.  It was sold by Eden Realty, who have been involved in two other mega deals in the ‘Beverly Hills of Dubai’ – both valued at around US$ 59 million.

Some eighteen months ago, the Dubai government, in a historic move, decided that designated plots and buildings owned by private investors in Sheikh Zayed Road and Al Jaddaf could be converted into freehold.  There was immediate action and a boom in freehold conversion around SZR – now it seems to be the turn of  Al Jaddaf, where there are three hundred and twenty-nine plots that could make the transition; this will allow property investors to buy their own home in the location, at prices that do not include the significant premiums that have occurred elsewhere in the emirate. Last week, Azizi Developments launched ‘Azizi David’ in Al Jaddaf, on land that was previously only open to GCC investors but now has been repurposed to being a freehold. (A week earlier, the developer had launched ‘Azizi Abraham’, in the Jebel Ali Free Zone area). Prices for one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments start at US$ 338k and US$ 436k. Recently, Harbor Real Estate said it was working as advisor to JAD Global Real Estate Development for one of the ‘first freehold projects launched in Al Jaddaf’ as part of the Dubai initiative to repurpose plots on SZR and in Al Jaddaf.  The area already has its fair share of developments through projects such as the D1 Tower which has studios and one-bedroom units selling on the secondary market at US$ 300k and between US$ 463k and US$ 600k, depending on size and views.

Nakheel has awarded Fibrex Contracting a US$ 708 million contract for the construction of the Bay Villas project at the Dubai Islands. The project, with six hundred and thirty-six luxury units, will comprise five distinct property types. Khalid Al Malik, Chief Executive Officer of Dubai Holding Real Estate, commented that, “this development delivers on our vision of designing waterfront communities that prioritise wellbeing, luxury and privacy, all while offering residents an opportunity to enjoy the best of island living.” Nakheel is a member of Dubai Holding Real Estate.

According to Dubai Municipality’s regulations, on co-living tenants’ rights on ‘occupancy density standards’, residents in Dubai have now an individual five sq mt of co-living rental options – ‘minimum space’. Furthermore, any internal partitions or modifications, made by the landlord, need the double approval of both Dubai Civil Defence and Dubai Municipality. Those landlords that do not abide with the regulations, by trying to squeeze in more occupants, are now facing a ‘zero tolerance’ approach from the authorities.

Data from Henley & Partners indicates that nearly 10k high-net-worth individuals moved to the country, and bringing with them some US$ 63 billion of investable wealth, with the majority selecting Dubai as their base. This year, a further 7.5k HNWIs, including over two hundred centi-millionaires, and at least fifteen billionaires, are expected to make Dubai their home. It is expected that the current number of 72k resident HNWIs could jump to 108k over the next five years, and that 68% of wealthy global investors are planning to acquire homes in Dubai this year at an average intended spend of US$ 32 million.

H1 figures from the Dubai International Chamber show one hundred and forty-three new companies, including thirty-one multinational corporations – 138% higher, compared to H1 2024. Furthermore, it attracted a further one hundred and twelve SMEs, up 138% on the year. The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre reported over 1.1k new companies in H1, bringing the total number of companies to almost 26k, of which seven hundred are in its Crypto Centre, including global names like Bitcoin.com and Animoca Brands.

Almost two hundred family offices have established themselves in the Dubai International Financial Centre, over the past twelve months, bringing the total close to eight hundred; the main reason for this mainly exodus out of Europe are the tightening of regulations and higher tax regimes. Family-owned enterprises, which account for about 60% of the UAE’s GDP, are also turning to Dubai as a base for global expansion. The recently launched Dubai Centre for Family Businesses, acts as a conduit helping such entities to strengthen governance, prepare for succession, and access international capital. Dubai’s privacy, flexible structures, and favourable inheritance and ownership rules offer strong advantages to such entities, and this is probably the main reason why the country is home to 75% of all ME family offices, with assets under management projected to reach US$ 500 billion by the end of the year.

The Dubai International Financial Centre has enhanced its position as a hub for global capital and financial innovation and has seen several high-profile financial institutions either setting up shop in Dubai or expanding on their current status in the emirate.  The arrival of global wealth, in whatever form, has seen major international wealth management firms beginning to take Dubai seriously. Undoubtedly it has become a global magnet and the leading destination for the relocation of the ultra-wealthy.

There is no doubt that Dubai’s ecosystem is booming, with 2025 seeing the expanding inward movement of HNWIs, individuals, entrepreneurs, businesses and wealth. Dubai, being a regional hub, is fast becoming the choice destination for FDI and for companies looking for global growth. It has so many advantages, over its global rivals, including being a strategic connecting location, having a progressive and very much pro-business government, enjoying an enviable lifestyle and a world-class infrastructure.

GEMS Education announced that it had recruited 1.7k new teachers ahead of the new school year and that it would be pursuing a “capital-light” growth strategy, as part of its future expansion, with a focus on its new Global Schools Management division. Its group CEO, Dino Varkey,  commented that the GSM model is a key part of the group’s strategy to diversify its portfolio, without the significant capital investment required for starting from scratch, and that “it is a part of the growth strategy because, again, the thing about a school management model is it is capital-light, and as a consequence, you can potentially accelerate its growth at a faster pace”. He confirmed that the UAE is still its main focus but that “adjacent markets in the GCC are going to be important”; he confirmed that the company is actively looking at Saudi Arabia, a market that is “too important to ignore”, given the kingdom’s transformation agenda, and emphasis on high-quality education. He also added that the group is re-imagining education for a new generation.

Worrying news for some UAE-based investors is the sudden closure of the DMCC-based Seventy Ninth Group office and its website. The UK asset management firm, which first opened it Dubai office in 2023, is facing a City of London police probe on suspicion of fraud and has been placed into administration in the UK. It is reported that the company sold structured loan notes secured against UK properties, promising investors annual returns of between 15% – 18%, claiming that funds raised were used to buy distressed properties, refurbish them, and sell them for profit to generate payouts. The group suspended payouts earlier this year, citing a moratorium while it sought to restructure. It is unclear the number of investors impacted, but some accounts suggest it could exceed 3k, with more than US$ 270 million at stake. Assets, including a former hospital in Northumberland and offices in Warrington, have been put up for sale. UK police, who had arrested four individuals earlier in the year, who were then released on bail, has urged investors to file reports through its Major Incident Public Portal. UK Finance has directed banks to freeze reimbursement claims under fraud compensation schemes until the police investigation is complete, leaving victims in further limbo.

The UAE has taken a great leap, jumping twenty-seven places to rank at number sixteen in the 2025 Government Support Index, a key indicator in the International Institute for Management Development’s (IMD) World Competitiveness Yearbook. This achievement is the result of the country’s ongoing drive to strengthen fiscal efficiency and align public spending with sustainable growth goals. The Government Support Index measures the value of government support as a percentage of GDP and serves as a benchmark for the effectiveness of public resource management. The Ministry of Finance is keen to see the UAE in the top ten in next year’s table.

The Government Support Index highlights a country’s ability to stimulate economic expansion through targeted spending policies that balance immediate needs with long-term priorities. For the UAE, the result underscores the effectiveness of reforms and strategies designed to ensure public financial management is not only prudent but also agile in responding to global economic shifts. It ranked well in several indicators used to measure performance including:

Position		Category
First		Venture Capital
First		Personal Income Tax Collected
Second		Corporate Profit Tax Rate
Third		Government Budget Surplus/Deficit
Fourth		Decrease in Indirect Tax Revenues
Fourth		Reduction in Consumption Tax Rate
Fifth		Capital and Property Taxes Collected
Sixth		Public Finance
Seventh		General Government Spending
Ninth		Government Consumption Expenditure – Real Growth

YTD to 31 May, the Central Bank increased its gold reserves by 25.90% to US$ 7.88 billion. Statistics showed that demand deposits also grew, by 0.05% exceeding US$ 317.96 billion by the end of May. Of this total, US$ 243.21 billion were in local currency and US$ 74.75 billion in foreign currencies.Savings deposits rose 13.26% to US$ 97.98 billion at the end of May, including US$ 83.25 billion in local currency and US$ 14.73 billion in foreign currencies.Time deposits exceeded US$ 276.07 million, (over AED 1.0 trillion), for the first time by the end of May, including US$ 167.53 billion in local currency and US$ 108.54 billion in foreign currencies.

The value of transfers executed in the country’s banking sector through the UAE Funds Transfer System (UAEFTS) reached US$ 2.60 trillion during the first five months of this year. According to Banking Operations Statistics, issued by the Central Bank of the UAE, the value of transfers by banks and by customers amounted to US$ 1.59 trillion and US$ 1.01 trillion. Over the period, the number of cleared cheques reached around 9.6 million, over two million off which occurred in May, valued at US$3.58 billion. The value of cash withdrawals from the Central Bank, during the first five months of 2025, reached US$ 27.19 billion, while cash deposits amounted to US$ 22.86 billion.

This week the Central Bank of the UAE revoked the licence of Malik Exchange, struck its name off the Register and imposed a financial sanction of US$ 545k, pursuant to Article (14) of the Federal Decree Law No. (20) of 2018 on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organisations and its amendments. An investigation had found that the Exchange House had made violations and failed to comply with the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organisations framework, and related regulations.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank has suspended YAS Takaful PJSC’s licence, pursuant to article 33(2)(k) of Federal Decree Law No. (48) of 2023 Regulating Insurance Activities, with the firm having failed to comply with the regulatory framework governing insurance companies in the UAE. It will remain liable for all rights and obligations arising from insurance contracts concluded before the suspension.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 18 August, on 6,126 points, and having shed eighty points (1.3%), the previous fortnight, closed flat (0.0%), to close the trading week on 6,126 points, by Friday 22 August 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.29 lower the previous fortnight, nudged US$ 0.01 higher to close on US$ 4.00 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75, US$ 7.14, US$ 2.65 and US$ 0.47 and closed on US$ 0.76, US$ 7.08, US$ 2.66 and US$ 0.46. On 22 August, trading was at two hundred and thirty million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-three million dollars, compared to one hundred and seventy-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-three million dollars on 15 August 2025.

By 22 August 2025, Brent, US$ 4.09 lower (5.8%) the previous fortnight, had gained US$ 3.05 (4.6%) to close on US$ 67.61. Gold, US$ 9 (0.3%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 8 (0.2%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,331 on 22 August.

Since the 16 August start of the strike, hundreds of flights have been cancelled and nearly 500k Air Canada passenger have been impacted. A tentative agreement on Tuesday, ended it, with both parties expected to finalise the deal and return to normal operations. The action, which saw 10k Air Canada workers, represented by the Canadian Union of Public Employees, was the first such strike in forty years. The dispute centred on demands for higher wages and compensation for unpaid ground duties, such as boarding and deplaning, estimated to amount to thirty-five hours of unpaid work per month per attendant. Prime Minister, Mark Carney, expressed disappointment over the failure to reach an agreement, after eight months of negotiations, but added that “it is my hope that this will ensure flight attendants are compensated fairly at all times”. It does seem that the carrier’s CEO, Michael Rousseau, is at odds with the comments, expressing his amazement at CUPE’s defiance of a Canada Industrial Relations Board order declaring the strike unlawful, stating: “at this point in time, the union’s proposals are much higher than the 40%”.  It is estimated that the strike cost the airline US$ 60 million a day, with it suspending its Q3 and full-year 2025 profit forecasts due to the strike’s impact.

In the US, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are facing passenger lawsuits, filed by legal firm Greenbaum Olbrantz, claiming that they had been charged extra for window seats, even when not available. The lawsuits, on behalf of more than one million customers, are seeking millions of dollars in damages, claiming that the companies do not flag that the seats as windowless during the booking process, even when charging a premium for them. The complaints said some Boeing and Airbus passenger planes had seats that do not have windows because of the positioning of air conditioning ducts, wiring or other components. Both airlines describe every seat along the sides of their planes as a “window seat”, even when they know some are not next to a window. Other carriers, like American Airlines and Alaska Airlines, operate similar jets but disclose during the booking process if a seat does not include a window.

It appears that Boeing will snare a mega deal with China to supply as many as five hundred aircraft and that would be the plane maker’s first order since the 2017 days of Trump 1’s last visit to the country. The deal is contingent to the two leading trading nations agreeing to end their hostilities and cutting back their current tariffs on each other. There are other important, but lesser, points to settle including the types and volume of jet models and delivery timetables. Chinese officials are already in discussion with domestic carriers as to how many planes would be required. China’s central planners have already wrapped up a deal, still to be officially announced, with Airbus for a similar order quantity.

As noted in last week’s blog, the UK’s biggest bioethanol plant has closed operations with immediate effect from last Friday, after the Starmer administration decided against any state help and refusing to bail out Vivergo, with immediate effect; weekly losses were estimated at US$ 4.0 million. The government decided that it “would not provide value for the taxpayer or solve the long-term problems the industry faces”. The Associated British Foods’ company was badly impacted by the recent UK-US trade deal which virtually signed the company’s death warrant when tariffs were scrapped on US bioethanol imports. There was also some concern that a business owned by a FTSE 100 conglomerate, which last year made a pre-tax profit of almost US$ 2.70 billion, should be eligible for taxpayer support for one of its subsidiaries. Its MD, Ben Hackett, commented that the decision as a “flagrant act of economic self-harm that will have far-reaching consequences” and it “has forced us to cease operations and move to closure immediately”. The closure will not only see one hundred and sixty losing their job in Hull but will have “a huge impact on the thousands of livelihoods in the supply chain”, including farmers, hauliers and engineers.

There is a distinct possibility that Associated British Foods, also the owner of Kingsmill and Allinson’s bread, is considering acquiring its long-standing rival, Hovis, founded in 1890, for a reported US$ 102 million. If that were to happen, then it would create the UK’s biggest bread brand, surpassing Warburton’s, the current market leader in UK breadmaking. Demand for pre-packaged bread is declining as the likes of sourdough and ciabatta continue to take a bigger slice of the market. ABF also owns Primark, Ryvita and Twinings, and indicated that it would cut costs to make the two currently loss-making businesses profitable.

No doubt that 2024 was a good trading year for Shein Distribution UK Ltd, with impressive revenue and pre-tax profit, both surging by 32.3% to US$ 2.78 billion and by 57.0% to US$ 52 million. Last year, the Chinese fast-fashion giant opened two offices – in London and Manchester – launched a pop-up shop in Liverpool and ended the year with a Christmas bus tour across twelve UK cities. Founded in China, but now headquartered in Singapore, Shein focuses on keeping prices low, using promotions and rewards to encourage shoppers to keep buying. Originally a fashion outlet, it has since branched out into selling a wide range of other products from toys and games to kitchenware. The UK operation, with ninety-one employees, primarily provides expertise for the UK market Like its competitors, Shein is acutely aware of “higher inflation and increased cost of living may affect customer purchasing habits”., and that it may be impacted by import taxes after the UK government announced a review of the exemption for packages valued at less than US$ 183, (GBP 135). In June 2024, Shein had filed initial paperwork taking it a step closer to listing on the London Stock Exchange. However, it has faced global criticism over its working conditions in its Chinese factories, along with the environmental impact of its business model.

WH Smith, which last year divested its iconic and historic, two hundred- and three-year-old, high-street business, to focus more on its more expanding travel arm sector, has warned of a problem with its profits. It appears that it may have overstated them by over US$ 40 million, mainly to an accelerated recognition of supplier income, resulting in full-year headline profit before tax and non-underlying items to be some 33.7% lower on the at US$ 148 million. On the news of the accounting error, its share value slumped 41.7%, whilst its board requested Deloitte to undertake an independent and comprehensive review.

Marks & Spencer has announced that it is to construct a mega automated warehouse in Northamptonshire in order to double the size of its fast-expanding food business. The retailer announced that it would invest US$ 458 million in a 1.3 million sq ft food distribution facility. It estimates that the construction will create 2k jobs, whilst a further 1k permanent roles will be required once operations start, slated for 2029.

There are indications that metals tycoon, and owner of Liberty Steel’s Speciality Steel UK (SSUK) arm, Sanjeev Gupta is considering a so-called connected pre-pack administration of his steel plant. This would involve a highly contentious arrangement to rescue his remaining UK steel operations and avert their collapse into compulsory liquidation by potentially selling the remaining assets to parties linked to him at a net price – after shedding hundreds of millions of pounds of tax and other liabilities to creditors. The Starmer administration had also been in a hurry to be ready when the winding up petition, for the country’s third largest steel maker, was approved on Wednesday. SSUK will be likely to enter compulsory liquidation within days, with special managers from consultancy firm Teneo appointed by the Official Receiver running the operations. The government has agreed to cover the ongoing wages and costs of the plant while a buyer is sought.

Reports seem to show that Gupta will try for another adjournment of the winding-up petition to buy him additional breathing space from creditors. There is no doubt that a connected pre-pack will be strongly opposed by some of the major stakeholders, including HM Revenue and Customs, and UBS, the investment bank which rescued Credit Suisse, a major backer of the collapsed finance firm Greensill Capital – which itself had a multibillion-dollar exposure to Liberty Steel’s parent, GFG Alliance.

The Indian entrepreneur is also in trouble from other fronts of his business empire. Reports indicate that he was preparing to call in administrators to oversee the insolvency of Liberty Commodities, whilst the HMRC has filed a winding-up petition against Liberty Pipes earlier this month.

Late last week, CongresswomanElise Stefanik, requested the US attorney general to probe Standard Chartered over alleged terrorist payments. The end result is that its shares faced an 8.0% sell-off on the London Stock Exchange in late Friday trading last week, shedding over US$ 2.80 billion and were trading 4.0% lower in overnight trading in Hong Kong.

SoftBank has taken an almost 2.0% stake, with a US$ 2.0 billion investment, in Intel in attempts to turn around the struggling US chipmaker. The agreement saw the Japanese technology investor paying US$ 23.00 per share that makes it the company’s sixth-largest investor. YTD, it has invested US$ 30 billion in ChatGPT maker OpenAI and was the lead in financing Stargate in a US$ 500 billion data centre project in the US. Intel’s chief executive was a former board member of SoftBank. Masayoshi Son, chairman of SoftBank, commented that “for more than fifty years, Intel has been a trusted leader in innovation. This strategic investment reflects our belief that advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply will further expand in the United States, with Intel playing a critical role”.

A day later, on Tuesday, the White House confirmed the possibility that the US could take up a 10% stake in the chip giant, with press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, commenting that “the president wants to put America’s needs first, both from a national security and economic perspective”. According to US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, any deal would involve swapping existing government grants for Intel share equity, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Such financing will boost Intel’s attempt to compete with rivals like Nvidia, Samsung and TSMC, particularly in the booming AI chip market. There is no doubt that the White House is becoming more concerned about developments and investment in the country, and only last week, both Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay the US government15% of their Chinese revenues, as part of an unprecedented deal to secure export licences to China.

In July, Japan’s total exports dipped 2.6%, in value terms – the biggest monthly fall since the 4.5% drop posted in February 2021, with the main driver being the impact of Trump tariffs; July exports to the US fell 10.1% from a year earlier. This was the third consecutive monthly decline and followed June’s 0.5%.

Although the country’s July core inflation rate slowed for a second straight month, it was still above the central bank’s 2% target, with the nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food items, rising to 3.1% on the year; the previous month saw the figure at 3.3%. The fall was attributable to the base effect of last year’s increase in energy prices; they fell 0.3%, the first year-on-year drop since March 2024, whilst food inflation, excluding volatile fresh products, rose 0.1%, on the month, to 8.3%.

The German Q2 economic output contracted by 0.3%, on the quarter – more than expected by the market – and was revised downwards from the preliminary data last month which had showed a 0.1% dip. Q1 initial figures had also been revised downwards by 0.1% to 0.3%. In H1, government spending exceeded revenues, in relation to total economic output; preliminary figures show the deficit of the federal government, federal states, municipalities and social security was a comparatively low 1.3%.

Australia’s jobless rate dipped 0.1% to 4.2% last month following a four year high posted in June; employment rose by 24.5k. This sends a clear message to the RBA indicating that the labour market remains tight, whilst justifying their cautious approach to policy easing.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has launched legal action against superannuation giant Mercer,  with allegations that it failed to report serious issues, whereby it charged members insurance premiums after they had died,; it is also accused that it provided false or misleading information in reports to the corporate watchdog, which understated the number of members who were impacted, created member accounts, without default insurance cover, and failed to process updates to member information. This is the latest case brought by the corporate watchdog, following two recent ones involving Australian Super – the former for failing to process thousands of death benefit claims “efficiently, honestly and fairly”, between July 2019 and October 2024, and the latter for delays in processing more than 10k death and disability payments. The US$ 45.6 billion Mercer Super, with 950k members, is the seventh-largest super fund in the country. In summarising ASIC deputy chair noted that, “we allege a pattern of longstanding and systematic failure by Mercer Super to comply with the law”. She concluded that Mercer Super’s alleged conduct falls well below what ASIC expects of a trustee of its size and market position. Last August, in a separate case, Mercer Super was fined over US$ 7 million after it admitted making misleading statements about the sustainable nature and characteristics of some of its superannuation investment options.

The Business Council of Australia estimates that there is more than nearly US$ 72 billion in ‘red tape’ burdens and has called for a 25% cut in regulatory compliance burdens by 2030. Consequently, it has proposed that nuisance regulatory burdens, be removed, other regulations be nationally consistent and to and a “better regulation minister” be appointed to fight the accumulation of compliance measures. The business body commented that years of accumulated regulations – that have built up with little oversight – have led to a compliance burden needlessly costing billions in wasted funds. It is over eleven years ago that the Abbott government carried out any type of significant audit and there is no central agency tasked with preventing the build-up of rules duplications and inconsistencies. The BCA added that “the only way to sustainably lift living standards and grow real wages is through faster productivity growth,” and that any reduction in red tape will help with improving the work process. It has already identified sixty-two discrete examples that would improve the work environment; they include, to:

• harmonise disparate schemes requiring businesses to comply with eight different regulatory regimes across states and territories
• relax trading and delivery hours for retailers
• fix licensing rules for tradespeople, so that qualifications are recognised across border
• remove ageing laws holding up housing, resources and renewables projects, widely viewed as “broken”

(Even Rachel Reeves has got into the act, with plans to strip back environmental protections in a belated attempt to boost the economy by speeding up infrastructure projects).

Last week the Reserve Bank of Australia revised down it expectations for future productivity growth, as this national alliance of some thirty industry groups said productivity growth over the last decade was the worst it has been in sixty years, and that has also led to the slowest decade in income growth, over that period. It commented that even a 1% in the compliance burden would equate to a US$ 650 million saving, with its chief executive asking “are there opportunities to consider overlaps, and where there are overlaps dispense with one of the overlaps? Do we really need, for instance, thirty-six different licences in Victoria in order to pour a first cup of coffee”?

On Monday, the Federal Court of Australia fined Qantas Airways US$ 59 million for illegally sacking 1.82k ground staff and replacing them with contractors during the Covid pandemic; US$ 33 million of the fine will be paid to the Transport Workers’ Union, which brought the case on behalf of the sacked staff. This comes after Qantas and the TWU agreed on a US$ 78 million settlement for the sacked workers. In imposing the fine, which was near to the maximum allowed under the legislation, the judge said it was to ensure it “could not be perceived as anything like the cost of doing business”, adding that “my present focus is on achieving real deterrence (including general deterrence to large public companies which might be tempted to ‘get away’ with contravening conduct because the rewards may outweigh the downside risk of effective remedial responses”.

S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI Output Index for August increased 0.3, on the month, to 55.4 – its highest level since December 2024; the main driver behind this improvement was the manufacturing sector seeing its strongest growth in orders since the beginning of 2024. The flash PMI surged by 3.5 to 53.3 – the highest since May 2022 – with many analysts looking to a second month of contraction. This robust set of figures indicates an economy that is expanding at an annual rate of 2.5%, almost double that of the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year. The improvement came largely from the manufacturing sector, where the flash PMI surged to 53.3 – the highest since May 2022 – from 49.8 in July and defying economists’ expectations for a second month of contraction. Meanwhile, the services sector dipped 0.3 to 55.4, with economists forecasting a much lower figure of 54.2. Trump tariffs were mainly responsible for a 1.0 hike, to 62.3, of prices paid by businesses for inputs, with both the services and manufacturing sectors reporting higher costs.  The survey’s measure of prices charged by businesses for goods and services rose to a three-year high of 59.3 – a sure sign that companies are increasingly passing along the higher costs to consumers. The composite employment index for both manufacturing and services rose from July’s 51.5 to 52.8.

Last month, Donald Trump said pharmaceuticals and semiconductors were not covered by the US-EU ‘handshake trade deal’ which would have meant respective tariffs of 250% and 100%. Now it seems that both tariffs will be limited to 15%, in line with most other sectors in the trade deal; the EU will have to reduce their car tariffs from 27.5% to 10.0%. Both sides noted that this was a “first step in a process” that could be expanded as the relationship develops.

Reports indicate that the Starmer administration is becoming increasingly concerned that UK semiconductor companies could be charged up to an unlikely 300% in Trump tariffs. Whitehall is awaiting an executive order from the United States “which will provide clarity” on reports of plans to impose “significant tariffs” on chip imports. It has also contacted industry companies in the country for their feedback on the potential impact of any change in the trade regime and for “any suggestions you would like to share with the negotiating team”.  Last Friday, the US President announced that “I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after, on steel and on, I would, say chips — chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after. I’m going to have a rate that is going to be 200%, 300%”.

According to Rightmove, the August average UK asking house price fell 1.3% to US$ 499.3k. There appears to be a glut of properties for sale, and this follows “bigger than usual falls in June and July”. Although house prices typically decline  in the month of August, buyers have been tempted by large reductions in asking prices from sellers trying to  ‘escape’ from a declining marketThe number of house sales agreed last month rose 8.0% on the year, making this July the busiest in terms of sales since 2020, when the post-lockdown “race for space”, fuelled by the stamp duty holiday, began.

The last time government borrowing had reached so low was in July 2021, at the height of the pandemic. The Office for National Statistics posted that July 2025 net borrowing was at US$ 148.23 billion, (GBP 1.10 billion), driven by increases in tax and national insurance receipts. Despite the welcome good news for the Chancellor, borrowing was still US$ 8.09 billion higher in the first four months of the UK fiscal year, ending 31 July. The amount of interest paid on government debt was at US$ 9.57 billion – 2.8% higher on the year – with the cost of borrowing having risen in recent months, down to the increased interest rate investors demand on loans via UK gilt bonds.

Rachel Reeves received another body blow this week, with news that the headline rate of inflation had nudged 0.2% higher in July to 3.8% – its highest level in eighteen months and towards the end of the Sunak government. The main drivers behind the upward movement were increasing transport costs, particularly air fares, and rising food price inflation, as coffee, meat and chocolate posted the biggest rises.  Core inflation – which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices – was 0.1% lower at 4.2%, whilst services inflation remained flat at 5.2%. It seems highly likely that the inflation rate could hit 4.0% in September – another problem for the Chancellor to surmount in her October budget. She must be asking herself – ‘When Will It Ever End’?