Sad State of Affairs! 12 December 2025
Conceived as a coastal sanctuary inspired by Japanese garden philosophies, BEYOND Developments has unveiled ‘SIORA’, its first beachfront masterplan on Dubai Islands and its second large-scale community within a year; the project will span over two million sq ft, with 2.7 million sq ft of gross floor area. Over the past year, BEYOND has delivered nine launches, welcomed residents and investors from over forty countries, and exceeded US$ 2.72 billion in sales. ‘SIORA’ is planned as a pedestrian coastal district, with more than 70% of the masterplan dedicated to open green spaces, creating over 1.5 million sq ft of landscapes that bring people closer to the six km of continuous beachfront. Shaded routes and landscaped terraces introduce cooler microclimates and frame calming outlooks towards the water and the horizon. ‘SIORA’ marks the beginning of a multi-phase presence for BEYOND on Dubai Islands.
Meraas has awarded a US$ 97 million contract to Al Sahel Contracting for the construction of three ten-storey buildings to house the new Riwa apartments at Madinat Jumeirah Living. The project will comprise two hundred and forty-four premium apartments, including one- to three-bedroom units and a four-bedroom penthouse. This will be the fifth partnership between the unit of Dubai Holding and the contractor having successfully delivered four earlier phases of Madinat Jumeirah Living. Designed with contemporary elegance, the residences offer light-filled, spacious interiors and elevated finishes that embody Meraas’ vision for sophisticated urban living. Completion is slated for Q3 2027.
At last weekend’s meeting of the Dubai Real Estate Corporation, the emirate’s First Deputy Ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, reviewed the 2025 performance of Wasl Group. He commended DREC and Wasl Group’s outstanding performance, noting that it was an indicator of Dubai’s robust real estate sector and its ability to drive sustainable growth and development. He added that the real estate sector remains a vital pillar of the emirate’s economy, supporting job creation, fuelling infrastructure development and helping anchor Dubai’s status as a leading global destination for living, investment and opportunity. He directed Wasl Group to continue delivering innovative, high-impact real estate projects that advance the objectives of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 and support the emirate’s ambition to rank among the world’s top three urban economies, while upholding to the highest standards of excellence and quality across the real estate, hospitality and entertainment sectors. The Board also noted that 85% of the Group’s residential leasing involved affordable units, totalling 45k. In line with the ambitions of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, Wasl will double the size of its residential leasing portfolio in the coming years, enhancing its contribution to supporting housing accessibility for residents across various income levels.
An increasing number of millionaire entrepreneurs are pulling up stocks and leaving the UK “non-dom” tax regime and shift their businesses, (and in many cases their families), to Dubai. The emirate has fast become the leading location in the world for such a sector, seeking not only tax breaks and progressive public regulations but also other factors of lifestyle, global access, geopolitical stability, safety worldclass infrastructure – including road, education, hotels and health services. Indeed, the government has policies in place to make Dubai not only the world’s fastest, safest and most connected city but the best place in the world in which to work, live and invest by 2033. By the end of the month, Dubai would have welcomed some 10k new millionaires this year – an almost 50% increase compared to the 2024 figure of 6.7k. Many will be either setting up new ventures and/or bringing businesses over, investing in new ventures and buying residences here; it is estimated that the 2025 entrants could arrive with well over US$ 60.0 billion.
An MoU has been signed between Dubai Customs and Binance, at the sidelines of Binance Blockchain Week 2025 in Dubai. The agreement takes on board Dubai’s target of becoming a global hub for the digital economy and AI by utilising advanced government technologies, strengthening public-private partnerships, and expanding the emirate’s position as a central global trade platform. Expansion of digital payment capabilities will be made by integrating crypto assets into commercial and logistical transactions, by utilising Binance’s platforms for digital assets and future payment solutions which provides advanced services, including Binance Pay, enabling secure, fast, and borderless digital payments. The collaboration with Binance will speed up Dubai Customs ongoing digital transformation, which includes a wide range of smart systems that have achieved high levels of automation in customs procedures.. The partnership will improve the efficiency of import–export operations, streamline customs procedures, and attract new investors—particularly SMEs—by offering modern payment options that help expand their businesses and access new global markets.
In order to strengthen its global competitiveness in the business environment, the federal government has recently amended the law on commercial companies, introducing a new concept – that of the non-profit company. Such an entity will be able to reinvest its net profits, without distributing them to partners or shareholders, enabling social and developmental sectors to operate within a flexible and transparent institutional framework. It is an attempt by the government to develop legal foundations locally, provide broader options for investors and stakeholders, and modernise the legislation of ownership and financing. The new law will also initiate advanced capital structure options through multiple categories of shares and stakes, with rights such as voting, profit distribution, and priority of redemption and liquidation. Furthermore, for the first time, the delocalisation of companies and the change of their registration between the seven emirates and financial free zones will allow companies to maintain their original legal personality. It will also enable private joint stock companies to offer their securities for private subscription on a national financial market. The decree also covers special procedures for disposition in the event of the death of a partner or shareholder to continue the stability of companies.
Earlier in the week, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid held a meeting with a delegation of African business and philanthropic leaders visiting the UAE which included Africa’s most influential private-sector and philanthropic figures from Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Egypt, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Representing key sectors including energy, digital infrastructure, logistics, agriculture and food systems, the delegates oversee companies and foundations that collectively drive national GDP, generate employment, and reinforce community resilience across the continent. During the meeting, the Dubai Ruler said, “the UAE and Dubai believe deeply in the power of partnership to accelerate progress. Our ties with Africa are rooted in deep historical, human and economic connections, and we view the continent as a key partner in shaping a more prosperous and stable future for our region and the world. The UAE’s innovation-driven development and Africa’s remarkable dynamism create strong synergies with far-reaching potential. By working closely with partners across the continent, we aim to advance innovation, strengthen energy and food security, expand opportunity, and build pathways for more resilient, inclusive and sustainable economies.” Figures show that the UAE has become one of Africa’s most active foreign state investors, deploying more than US$ 110 billion between 2019 and 2023, including over US$ 70 billion in renewable energy and green infrastructure. The UAE also launched the US$1 billion ‘AI for Development’ initiative to finance and scale AI projects across the continent, supporting the integration of advanced technologies in education, agriculture, and infrastructure.
This week has seen bilateral discussions with Ireland involving Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, and Ireland’s Minister for Enterprise, Tourism and Employment, Peter Burke. The threefold aims of the meeting were to expand partnerships in the new economy, accelerate future tourism projects, and strengthen public-private sector cooperation. There are already longstanding relations in tourism, (with thirty-two direct weekly flights to Dublin), hospitality, and innovation-led economic sectors. Both parties acknowledged the importance of continued engagement between business communities, saying that closer collaboration will unlock new joint initiatives and attract greater investment into emerging sectors.
During this week’s twelfth meeting of the ‘Intergovernmental Russia–UAE Commission on Trade, Economic and Technical Cooperation’, Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, affirmed that the UAE and the Russian Federation enjoy strategic relations built on mutual understanding and shared economic interests. He added that “the current session of the committee represents a new step towards building fruitful partnerships between the business communities and private sectors of both countries. It strengthens cooperation and provides support for entrepreneurs from both sides in a way that contributes to the growth and sustainability of their economies. Our cooperation focuses on new economy sectors and priority areas that serve the mutual interests of the two countries.” The committee’s agenda included discussions on work plans and cooperation mechanisms in fields such as investment, energy, industry and innovation, food security and agriculture, education, transport and logistics, tourism, sports and culture, environmental protection, healthcare and several other areas. The Minister noted that the latest session marked “a new step” in building partnerships between Emirati and Russian businesses, particularly in sectors linked to the new economy. He highlighted the UAE’s flexible investment environment, including laws that allow full foreign ownership of companies and access to more than two thousand licensed economic activities.
On Tuesday, the Federal National Council approved a federal draft law, linking the Union General Budget and the budgets of independent federal entities for the 2026 fiscal year, and passing a total budget of US$ 25.18 billion – 29.2% higher, compared to the 2025 budget, and the highest in the country’s history. The FNC’s Speaker, Saqr Ghobash, commented that the country continues an upward trajectory of growth and stability, and that its financial policies are rooted in confidence in its own capabilities and forward-looking vision.
Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler – and President of the Dubai International Financial Centre – has reviewed the Centre’s latest strategic progress and future plans. At a meeting of the Higher Board of Directors, he lauded the three related entities, the DIFC Authority, the Dubai Financial Services Authority and the DIFC Courts for their strong performance and alignment with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33. He noted the progress made in the emirate’s vision to become one of the top four financial centres on the world stage. He added that their achievements reinforce Dubai’s vision to become one of the world’s top four financial centres by 2033 – currently it is placed eleventh in the Global Financial Centres Index, and the fourth worldwide for FinTech. DIFC is now home to more than 8k companies, including more than 1k regulated by the DFSA—the largest concentration of financial services institutions in the region. The meeting also discussed the DIFC’s 2026 targets including enhancing Dubai’s competitiveness, expanding infrastructure, driving innovation and AI adoption, and empowering the next generation of industry leaders.
The world’s third largest coffee chain, and established just three years ago, is to open a store in Dubai Mall early next year. Cotto Coffee’s entry marks a major milestone in its ME expansion and a key step in its global growth strategy; it currently has 18k stores across thirty-three countries including the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia. Its tag-line – “Great Coffee Starts with Great Ingredients” – is a sign of its commitment to offering high-quality, great-value, and convenient coffee experiences.
e& UAE and Al Maryah Community Bank have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore the use of AE Coin for payments across selected e& channels. The telecom operator plans to test regulated blockchain-based payments for bills, recharges, and a broader set of digital transactions. The agreement outlines plans to integrate Central Bank-licensed stablecoin AE Coin into e& UAE’s payment infrastructure. Customers would gain the option to use the AED-backed token for mobile and home-service bills, prepaid and postpaid recharges, e& digital platforms, smart self-service systems, and potential future e-commerce touchpoints. The collaboration aligns with the UAE’s digital-economy objectives, including expanding the use of regulated blockchain-based payment systems and supporting long-term plans for a cashless society.
The DFM opened the week on Monday 08 December on 5,984 points, and having gained one hundred and forty-seven points, the previous week, (2.5%) was one hundred and thirteen points, (1.9%), higher to close the week on 6,097 points, by 12 December 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.21 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.04 to close on US$ 3.87 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75 US$ 7.30, US$ 2.56 and US$ 0.43 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 7.70, US$ 2.56 and US$ 0.47. On 12 December, trading was at two hundred and thirty million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety million dollars, compared to two hundred and sixteen million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety-three million dollars, on 05 December.
By 12 December 2025, Brent, US$ 1.80 (2.9%) higher the previous fortnight, had shed US$ 2.51, (3.9%), to close on US$ 61.29 Gold, US$ 2 (0.1%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 172 (4.2%), to end the week’s trading at a record US$ 4,298 on 12 December. Silver was trading at a record US$ 61.84 – US$ 3.24 (5.2%) higher on the week.
Last Tuesday, the price of silver topped a record US$ 60 per oz, as demand from the technology industry for the precious metal continued to climb. Gold, which hit record highs earlier in the year as concerns grew about the impact of US tariffs and the global economic outlook, also made gains this week. Both metals tend to benefit in an economic climate of lower interest rates and a weaker greenback. When rates decline, the benefits of holding cash or purchasing short-term bonds diminish so many traders head to the bullion market, as stores of value, and considered ‘safe haven’ assets. The value of silver was also pushed up, as strong demand from the technology industry outstripped supplies, with more manufacturers finding a need for the material. Because silver conducts electricity better than gold or copper, it is used to produce goods like electric vehicles and solar panels. The price of silver is also being boosted by concerns that the US may impose Trump tariffs on the metal with some silver stock piling taking place, resulting in shortages elsewhere in the world. The US imports about two-thirds of its silver, which is used for manufacturing as well as jewellery and investment.
In what a US District judge indicated was an “epic fraud’, involving two digital currencies, that lost an estimated US$ 40 billion in 2022, Do Kwon was sentenced to fifteen years in prison. He was accused of misleading investors in 2021 about TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin designed to maintain a value of US$ 1, with prosecutors alleging that when TerraUSD slipped below its US$ 1 peg in May 2021, he told investors a computer algorithm known as “Terra Protocol” had restored the coin’s value. He then arranged for a trading firm to secretly buy millions of dollars of the coin to artificially boost its value. The founder of Singapore-based Terraform Labs and who developed the TerraUSD and Luna currencies, he previously pleaded guilty and admitted to misleading investors about a coin that was supposed to maintain a steady price during periods of crypto market volatility. His actions caused billions of dollars in losses and triggered a cascade of crises in the crypto market. The Korean national is but one of several cryptocurrency moguls to face federal charges after a slump in digital token prices in 2022 prompted the collapse of a number of companies.
This week, the Fed did not surprise the market as it cut rates by the expected 0.25%, whilst signalling only one more reduction next year, in the face of uncertainty about the state of the world’s largest economy. By early morning yesterday, Bitcoin had dipped below the US$ 90k level – a fall of some 28% since its all-time high in October. The main drivers that concerned investors were disappointing results from AI tech giant Oracle and a hawkish outlook from the Fed. Following extensive lobbying by Oracle’s Jensen Huang, US President Donald Trump has announced that he will allow AI chip giant Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 chips to “approved customers” in China, but that “we will protect National Security, create American jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI”. This decision will also apply to other chipmakers. In recent months, it had been prohibited from selling its most advanced chips to Beijing, but in July, Donald Trump reversed the ban but decided that Nvidia pays 15% of its Chinese revenues to the US government. This led to Beijing then reportedly ordering its tech companies to stop buying Nvidia chips manufactured for use in the Chinese market. Although access to H200 chips, (which is reportedly a generation behind its Blackwell chip, which is considered to be the world’s most advanced AI semiconductor), is likely to benefit China’s technology sector, Beijing is still expected to work towards reducing dependence on the US. It is thought that China’s chip production ecosystem was fast catching up with the US in chip development. Some consider that the US president’s move could be a sweetener in negotiations with the Xi Ping government regarding a deal with Beijing over rare earths, of which China holds a near-global monopoly.
Yesterday, shares in tech giant Oracle nosedived, down to weaker-than-expected revenues, spooking the market that such companies may have been spending too much on AI with minimal returns. With revenue slumping 14.0%, in the quarter ending 30 November, to US$ 16.1 billion, the market seemed to be concerned about talk of a potential AI bubble in the offing. In September, Oracle agreed a highly sought-after contract with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, who agreed to purchase US$ 300 billion in computing power from Oracle over five years; this made Oracle chairman Larry Ellison briefly the richest man in the world after the announcement.
Yesterday, as Oracle shares sank 14%, posting a 40% decline in value since its September peak, (but still up 33% YTD), he commented that “there are going to be a lot of changes in AI technology over the next few years and we must remain agile in response to those changes”, and “we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy”. Oracle’s policy of incurring massive debt funding the building of data centres is causing concern that such tech stocks are over-valued.
It does seem that Meta is either playing safe, or having technical problems, by its announcement that it is delaying the release of its Phoenix mixed-reality glasses until 2027; the goggles had previously been known as Puffin. The tech giant did comment that moving the release date back is “going to give us a lot more breathing room to get the details right”. It had been previously reported that the goggles have lower-resolution displays and weaker computing performance than high-end headsets like Apple’s Vision Pro. However, Meta is hoping to capitalise on the “momentum” in that segment, having invested billions of dollars to build the metaverse, which lets people to interact in a virtual reality, but to date, the tech giant has struggled to convince investors of the viability of the nascent technology.
Although the EU came out fighting when they fined Elon Musk’s social media platform X US$ 140 million over its blue tick badges, it did not expect the US outcry. The European Commission had complained that by allowing people to pay for a blue verified check mark on their profile, the platform “deceives users” because the firm is not “meaningfully verifying” who is behind the account, adding that “this deception exposes users to scams, including impersonation frauds, as well as other forms of manipulation by malicious actors”. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, led the battle saying that “the European Commission’s fine isn’t just an attack on X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments”, and “the days of censoring Americans online are over”. FCC chair, Brendan Carr, weighed in accusing the EC of targeting X merely because it was “a successful US tech company”, and that “Europe is taxing Americans to subsidise a continent held back by Europe’s own suffocating regulations”. US VP JD Vance was not to be left out, claiming the platform was being punished “for not engaging in censorship”, and “the EU should be supporting free speech, not attacking American companies over garbage”.
For the past two years, the fate of Spirit Aerosystems UK, most of whose work is with Airbus, has hung in the balance as Boeing was interested in a takeover deal. It has now been settled, with the French plane maker near to announcing an agreement that will save those 3k jobs and could even lead to more work in Belfast. This is great news not only for the company but also for the UK manufacturing industry that has been under the cosh for some time. The car industry has been struggling partly because of the government issuing tough new sales quotas, to speed the transition to EVs have resulted in a fall in vehicle production. Whilst the UK has a tough deadline of banning the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles as from 2030, reports indicate that the EU is looking at extending this deadline for a further five years to 2035.
The boards of directors from each company unanimously approved the deal that will see the merger of Warner Bros and Netflix in a US$ 72.0 billion cash price or equity value deal which includes the company’s debts and the value of its shares. The cash and stock deal is worth US$ 27.75 per Warner Bros share, with Netflix’s co-CEO, Ted Sarandos, commenting that this was a “rare opportunity” to set Netflix up for success “for decades to come”. Netflix will complete the takeover after Warner Bros finalises its previously announced plans to separate its streaming and studios division from its global networks division into two companies next year. Other stakeholders are against the move, with the Writers Guild of America’s East and West branches posting “this merger must be blocked”, and “the outcome would eliminate jobs, push down wages, worsen conditions for all entertainment workers, raise prices for consumers, and reduce the volume and diversity of content for all viewers”. Trade organisation Cinema United noted that the merger posed “an unprecedented threat” to the global cinema business.
Netflix is aiming high and could well be a leading light in the new world order of streaming. Its global networks division will become Discovery Global and will include its cable channels such as CNN and TNT Sports in the US, as well as its Discovery and free-to-air channels in Europe. TNT Sports International will stay with the streaming and studios division being sold to Netflix. The big question is whether such a huge deal would be approved by the regulators, and if so, the disruptive impact it would have on the film industry. By the end of the week, Paramount upset the applecart by launching a hostile multi-billion-dollar takeover to acquire streaming platform HBO Max and movie studio Warner Bros, among other assets. Under the terms of the US$ 108 billion Paramount bid, Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders would be offered US$ 30 per share, which represents a 139% premium based on the market cap.
vVoosh, a lifestyle app backed by Sarah Ferguson, went into administration last month without ever launching a product. Founded by Manuel Fernandez, a close friend of Ms Ferguson, its promise was to give users “the power to Find, Plan, Share, Live, and Remember all the things you love to do – and those you’re yet to try.” Over the years, the company raised some US$ 12 million, including more than US$ 1.3 million from the UK government through R&D tax credits. Payments were made in the UK and then India to work on the app, but it collapsed without ever launching a product. The administrator’s report describes a “breakdown in communication between the current directors/major creditors and the founder who ceased communication following [his] resignation as a director earlier in the year”. It is thought that the firm is owed US$ 432k by the fifty-six-year-old founder who has apparently left the country. La Luna Investments, owned by the ex-duchess and a 1% shareholder, is owed US$ 67k. The administrators said that there was “significant uncertainty” over how much money the company’s creditors would get back once the company was wound up.
Because of larger-than-expected wheat harvests, especially in Argentina, global cereal output will probably hit a new record to top three billion tonnes for the first time; this represents a 4.9% annual increase. Coarse grain and rice outputs are both expected to increase from the previous year, with world rice output projected to grow by 1.6%, led by Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia. The new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also offers preliminary updates on trends in the ongoing winter wheat season in the northern hemisphere and coarse grain plantings in the southern hemisphere. World cereal utilisation in 2025/26 is now expected to increase by 2.1% from the previous year. Based on the updated forecasts, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 6.5% to a record high of 925.5 million tonnes, while the new forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 points to a 3.3% increase to 500.6 million tonnes.
In a bid to boost its flagging domestic production, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has approved a package of new tariffs, impacting hundreds of products, many of which come from China. Taking place on 01 January 2026, the levies will apply to goods like metals, cars, clothing and appliances and will impact many countries – including Thailand, India and Indonesia – that do not have a free trade agreement with Mexico. The measures will impose tariffs of up to 50% on more than 1.4k products. At the same time, Mexico is in talks with the Trump administration as it tries to reduce tariffs on the country which include 50% duties on steel and aluminium, as well as threats of a further 25% levy to pressure Mexico stopping the flow of the synthetic opioid fentanyl into America; he has also threatened a further 5% tariff because of it violating an eighty-year old treaty agreement that gives US farmers access to water.
For South Korea to remain competitive in the AI sector, the chairman of SK Group, Chey Tae-wo, reckons that the country will have to invest some US$ 953.0 billion over the next seven years to 2033. In an AI-themed conference, Chey and the Bank of Governor Rhee Chang-yong discussed strategies for building an ecosystem that promotes corporate growth in an environment led by the adoption of AI. Whilst discussing the possibility of an AI bubble, he commented that, “if South Korea wishes to fully engage in the global AI competition, it needs to establish AI data centres with a combined capacity of twenty gigawatts”, noting that it costs US$ 47.5 billion to just build one GW facility. He also added AI infrastructure plays a crucial role in attracting global talent and data and stressed the need for South Korea “to build more attractive companies than other countries”, and that, “we need to create a separate market for AI startups and foster tens of thousands of them to win the current AI race.”
In a bid to spur innovation and support economic recovery, the Korean Finance Ministry has announced that it plans to frontload 75% of next year’s expenditure budget, amounting to US$ 312.3 billion, in H1. Excluding government funds, this expenditure will cover the general and special accounts, focussing on four sectors – supporting a technology-driven ultra-innovation economy, strengthening the social safety framework, enhancing public safety and advancing diplomacy and security that prioritise national interest.
One of the recent success stories in SE Asia is Vietnam and one burgeoning sector is real estate benefitting greatly from becoming second only after processing and manufacturing in newly registered foreign direct investment. It is estimated that by the end of October, the property market had received US$ 2.75 billion in newly registered capital and about US$ 1.5 billion in disbursed funds. This momentum is down to an improved investment policy framework and a more transparent, business-friendly environment. The government has accelerated administrative reforms, digitalised procedures and enhanced transparency in land allocation and management – resulting in strong market confidence. By the end of Q3, there had been a 20.3% annual boost, equating to 4.7k, in the number of new real estate companies.
Last Friday, the Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.25%, lowering the repo rate to 5.25% – the second rate reduction in six months, following a fifty-bps cut in June. It seems that the central bank believes that the country is in the middle of a “Goldilocks period” of robust growth and historically low inflation which is below the target level; it was noted that average headline inflation, at 1.7%, in Q2 breached the lower tolerance threshold of its flexible inflation targeting framework for the first time ever, dipping to 0.3% in October. However, although there is some concern of the declining rupee rate, which is hovering around record lows, the Indian economy demonstrated strong resilience, with real GDP growth accelerating to 8.2% in Q2 – a six-quarter high. The main drivers are strong domestic demand and a strong festive season spending. The RBI forecast a slight decline in GDP growth to 7.3% for 2025-26.
China’s November consumer price index grew 0.7% on the year – the highest since March 2024 – accelerated by 0.5% from October’s reading, The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 1.2%, compared to November 2024, with the growth rate remaining above 1.0% for the past three consecutive months. Data also revealed that the producer price index, which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, fell 2.2% – 0.1% higher on the month.
Wednesday saw new Australian legislation, banning children under the age of sixteen from some ten social media platforms. One of those affected was Reddit, who have since launched a challenge in Australia’s highest court against this ban, which the Albanese government introduced to protect children from harmful content and algorithms. Although Reddit is complying with the law, it is arguing that the policy has serious implications for privacy and political rights. Meanwhile, two Australian teens are also awaiting a High Court hearing. In true Aussie manner, Australia’s Communications Minister Anika Wells commented that “we will not be intimidated by big tech. On behalf of Australian parents, we will stand firm”. The outcome will be closely watched by many parents around the world.
There is no doubt that many US farmers have been displeased with the US President, having been badly impacted by low crop prices and the administration’s ongoing trade wars. In a bid to placate the sector, Donald Trump has unveiled a US$ 12.0 billion farm aid package, with all but 8.3% of the total being one-time payments to farmers for row crops as part of the agriculture department’s Farmer Bridge Assistance programme, with the balance reserved for crops not covered by the programme; the payments are intended to help farmers market this year’s harvest and plan for next year’s crops. The White House says the aid package will help farmers suffering from “years of unjustified trade actions” and accumulated inflation, with the President adding that “maximising domestic farm production is a big part of how we will make America affordable again and bring down grocery prices”. Sorghum and soybean farmers have been hardest hit by the Trump administration’s trade dispute with China, the greatest importer of their crops. There have been many complaints from US farmers after they lost access to customers in China as a result of Trump’s trade policies. Trump has also threatened to impose a new 5% tariff on Mexico, accusing it of violating an eighty-year-old treaty that that grants the US water from Rio Grande tributaries and gives American farmers access to water.
The latest update from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development posted that for the first time ever global trade is on course to exceed US$ 35 trillion this year. It also confirmed that despite all the global volatility, higher costs and numerous geo-political tensions, trade expanded by 2.5% in Q3 – now being driven by higher volumes rather than rising prices which have declined after two quarters of them moving higher. Nevertheless, demand remains robust as inflation slows – a sign, says UNCTAD, of healthy, real economic activity, and that “this points to stable demand, even as inflation eases”. In Q3, goods rose by nearly 2%, and services by 4%. Growth is expected to continue in Q4, at a slower 0.5% rate for goods and 2.0% for services; if those forecasts ring true, goods will add about US$ 1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services US$ 750 billion – equating to an overall 7.0% annual increase. (South–South trade – defined as trade among the Global South, including the ME – expanded by around 8.0%, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies).
Since November eurozone inflation surprisingly nudged 0.1% higher, on the month, to 2.2%, it is almost certain that next week’s meeting will leave the ECB’s deposit rate at 2.0%. It now seems highly unlikely that there will be no more rate cuts in H1 2026; the rate still hovers just over the ECB’s 2.0% target, after 2025 saw total rate cuts of 2.0%. It appears that declining energy prices still manage to offset robust domestic price pressures, particularly in services. The twenty-nation bloc also posted underlying steady 2.4% figures, excluding volatile food and fuel prices. The ECB apparently thinks that inflation has finally been beaten. Time will tell.
October saw the UK economy contract for the second successive month and, measured on a quarterly rolling basis, output was 0.1% lower; the main reason for the disappointing return was growth being curtailed by the September Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack impacting October figures. Contractions were noted in two leading sectors – 0.6% in construction and 0.3% in services which is the main driver of the economy. The report was posted well before the November budget, with the Office for National Statistics noting that many companies were waiting for the outcome of the budget, with the highest concerns among “manufacturers, construction companies, wholesalers, computer programmers, real estate firms and employment agencies”.
A Bank of England deputy governor, Clare Lombardelli, has said that measures announced by the Chancellor could see inflation levels, currently at 3.5%, nudging 0.5% lower as from next April, driven by reduced energy prices, an extension of a cap on fuel duty and rail fares remaining static until March 2027. The Office for Budget Responsibility reckons inflation could be 0.4% lower by then, with forecasts of 2.5% by the end of 2026 and hitting the BoE’s 2.0% target a year later. Although this spells good news for the embattled Rachel Reeves, the deputy governor noted that its “effects are quite small” on growth, saying there would be a “short-term” impact, adding 0.2% to GDP in 2027.
The Chancellor continues to be in the news even though the pressure seems to have slowed – only for the time being. The lady, infamous for tarting up her CV in the past and breaking manifesto promises, has now spoken that, in 1993, she had been the British girls’ under-14 champion. The only problem is that Emily Howard won this event. The erstwhile Chancellor did win a British Women’s Chess Association championship, but that’s a more minor title and rather like comparing winning the Ryder Cup to a crazy golf tournament.
The Covid-19 Counter-Fraud Commissioner Tom Hayhoe’s final report has concluded that fraud and error cost the taxpayer some US$ 14.67 billion – this figure seems to be on the low side when the amounts – and profits – that the ‘VIP lane’ managed to squeeze out of the Exchequer are considered. (For example, reports indicated that Conservative peer Baroness Mane may have profited from her husband’s firm winning PPE contracts of over US$ 266 million). Of the figure, US$ 2.40 billion has been recovered, though “much” of the shortfall is now “beyond recovery”. However, there remains areas where investing to recover sums is “worthwhile” and should continue. Weak accountability, bad quality data, poor design, absence of fraud expertise and poor contracting were identified as the primary causes of the loss, with pandemic support programmes such as furlough, bounce-back loans and Eat Out to Help Out being highlighted for their being little or no accountability to detect fraudulent usage, with inadequate ‘checks and balances’ in place. Furthermore, government departments generally worked independently and designed schemes from scratch, which led to a “high degree of novelty” in the design and introduced greater fraud risk. Even now, chasing bad debts has “varied significantly” across government departments. The report came up with four recommendations including that the Treasury should establish a “scrutiny panel” of senior officials across government with external members and chaired by a minister to review implementation of recommendations at six-month intervals for “at least” two years. If this had been a company, the whole board would have ended up in court for a combination of mismanagement and corruption. This lot tend to be awarded with ambassadorships, peerages or top city jobs. What a Sad State of Affairs!
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