If I Could Turn Back Time! 09 July 2020

Posted on July 10, 2020 by howesdubai

If I Could Turn Back Time! 09 July 2020

The latest Property Finder report points to a June improvement in the Dubai property sector, as month on month sale transactions were 60% higher. Low prices encouraged the increased demand that saw 570 sales a week, climbing 11% each of the last three weeks of the month. However, because of the lockdown since mid-March, quarterly transactions, at 5.6k, were 46.1% lower than the Q1 total of 10.3k; the first two quarters of 2020 saw values of US$ 5.9 billion and US$ 3.0 billion. The market has been struggling since 2014 – and although the pandemic has tried to put another nail in its coffin, there are signs that stability is returning at last. The top three locations for off plan transactions, accounting for over 36.5% of the market, were MBR City, JVC and Downtown Dubai. Apart from the pent-up demand, following lockdown, other drivers for the increased business include record low interest rates, attractive mortgage offers from the banks and property prices at 2014 base levels.

Although many “experts” are announcing the death for office space, with Covid-19 indicating that many could work just as well – or even better – from home, CBRE expects demand to remain intact. However, the consultancy reckons that when some sort of normality returns to the workplace, the demand for space may actually increase. There are many who consider that businesses may take up less space in the future as economic uncertainty, leaner workforces and continued cost-cutting make working from home a viable option for many. The opposite side of the argument is that future office space needs to ensure safer working conditions, and social distancing, which, in turn, should theoretically result in the need for more space. It will be some time before anyone really knows which direction the market will take.

According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and under a worst-case scenario, the GCC’s tourist sector could be on the receiving end of a US$ 50.7 billion deficit to their combined GDP, due to the impact of Covid-19. The biggest loser will be the UAE, with a possible loss of US$ 30.5 billion which would be lower if the impact is considered. “moderate” at US$ 10.2 billion or US$ 20.3 billion if ‘intermediate’; the three scenarios are based on standstill time periods – four months, eight months and a year above. But a more bullish outlook forecasts a recovery as soon as Q1 next year whilst, by the end of 2021, business will return to pre-Covid levels. 2018 figures indicate that tourism accounted for 11.1% (US$ 45.0 billion) of the UAE’s GDP. Tuesday, 07 July, was the official start to receiving international tourists again, after almost four months since the March lockdown and could prove a catalyst for an uptick in the sector. Today, 09 July, saw the start of the 23^rd Dubai Summer Surprises, and seven weeks of huge discounts and promotions until 29 August, which will help move the sector forward.

The region’s first e-hospital is to be launched, with patient access to 2k international doctors from a wide range of worldwide hospitals, offering medical advice ranging from consultations, diagnosis, treatment and medication. Mulk Healthcare is confident that telehealth will be a major future disrupter, and that with the decline in the demand for the traditional face to face interaction, digital healthcare is set to grow exponentially. The Mulk E-Hospital app provides the full 360 degrees of healthcare from consultation to post hospital care.

In KPMG’s annual Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index, the UAE moved up one place in the ranking to eighth in the world. The country scored highest (of the thirty countries) when it came to change readiness for new technology infrastructure, mobile data speeds and the readiness of people to embrace driverless cars. The survey looked at whether countries are not only prepared but also whether they are open to AVT (autonomous vehicle technology). Singapore, followed by the Netherlands, Norway, the US and Finland made the top five, whilst the UAE came in ahead of UK and Denmark. The country has announced that it expects 25% of its transport will be autonomous by 2030. Only four months ago, the capital’s Mubadala joined a US$ 2.25 billion consortium investing in Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle technology, Waymo.

The DED special start-up licence, enabling new companies to conduct business activities online, and across social networking accounts, has witnessed an 83% growth in H1 to over 1.9k – no mean achievement considering the Covid-19 impact over the past four months. Dubai Economy also issued 577 Trader Licences, up 163% compared to H1 2019, and is keen to cement the emirate as the leading destination for regional e-commerce and a commercial hub for consumers. Dubai’s commercial agency also provides on-going support to these licence holders by linking them, and signing partnerships, with government and the private sector. “Lifestyle Coaching” is the most popular of the 382 activities, with ten the permitted number of activities in a single licence.

In a major restructuring move this week, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced that half the federal agencies would merge with each other or within ministries, creating both new government ministerial positions and executive heads in specialised sectors. He reiterated the need for “a government that is faster in decision-making and is more up to date with changes and better in seizing opportunities and in dealing with the new stage in our history”. He also warned that “the new government has one year ahead to achieve the new priorities and the continuous changes will remain the motto of the next stage.”

Among the new ministries are that of State for Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence and Remote Work Applications and that of Industry and Advanced Technology, tasked with developing the industrial sector in the country. Mergers will see the Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Infrastructure become one, as will the National Media Council and the Federal Youth Foundation with the Ministry of Culture. Other mergers will see the Federal Authority for Electricity and Water (FEWA), Emirates Post and Emirates Institution of Transportation and Emirates Real Estate Corporation come under the Emirates Investment Authority, under the chairmanship of the Minister of Economy. This Ministry will have three senior ministers – Economy, State for Business and Small and Medium Enterprises and State for Foreign Trade. The Insurance Authority is to be merged with the Securities and Commodities Authority, whilst the National Qualifications Authority will be merged with the Ministry of Education.

Business confidence is slowly returning to Dubai’s non-oil private sector economy, with June’s IHS Markit PMI rising to the threshold 50 level – up from last month’s 46 mark and an bringing an end to three months of disastrous returns, after Covid-19 ravaged the emirate’s economy. There was no surprise to see payroll numbers falling, whilst business activity nudged higher, as new work and output ticked up at a “solid rate”. Supplier prices increased in the month, leading to overall expenses nudging higher, whilst the rate of inflation was eased by additional salary cuts and lower workforce numbers. Although improvements were noted in the construction, retail and wholesale sectors, travel and tourism (an integral part of Dubai’s economy) remained entrenched in negative territory. However, with Dubai opening up to international visitors on Tuesday, for the first time since mid-March, and other countries relaxing travel restrictions, there is a valid expectation that a recovery is on the cards. Both local airlines are ramping up their schedules with Emirates resuming flights to fifty-two destinations and Flydubai to twenty-four locations.

It does also appear that the country is beginning to start its long economic road to normality, as June’s IHS Markit UAE Purchasing returns to positive territory with a 50.4 reading – 50.0 is the threshold between expansion and contraction. As a result of the recent lifting of many of the lockdown restrictions, the economy has picked up with new business on the rise, along with foreign new orders. June was the first month this year that the indicator moved upwards. However, firms continued to cut costs as both remuneration levels and workforce numbers once again headed south – an indicator perhaps that the recovery will take some time before ‘business returns to normal’. Furthermore, rising input demand saw a jump in purchase prices, which led to increasing total costs. Rising input demand meanwhile resulted in a rise in purchase prices, increasing overall costs for the second month running, as selling charges rose again for the twenty-first consecutive month. In order to attract more revenue, some companies continue to offer promotional prices.

Nomad Homes has secured seeding of US$ 4 million, led by Comcast Ventures and a range of international venture capitalists. The Dubai-based proptech, only founded last year, has developed an online real estate platform that brings the entire experience of buying and renting homes to interested parties. The platform provides potential buyers with all the requirements, including tools, virtual tours, and digital document signing, to offer an end-to-end online experience. The company will partner local realtors and its revenue stream comes from taking a commission percentage.

Amazon has opened a home services division, dealing with various professional services such as house cleaning, electronics repair, car wash, pet grooming and smart home services. Amazon.ae has been launched after Souq rebranded Helpbit which has now been integrated into Amazon’s ecosystem. Helpbit was launched by Souq in 2016 as an independent portal and had been offering different types of home services to users across UAE. All the services have fixed prices, with Amazon working with various service providers that will be vetted by them.

The bourse opened on Sunday 05 July and, 26 points (1.2%) lower the previous week was 5 points off (0.2%), to close on 2,082 by 09 July. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.03 down the previous week, regained US$ 0.02 to US$ 0.75, whilst Arabtec, US$ 0.01 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.02 to US$ 0.18. Thursday 09 July saw the market trading at 290 million shares, worth US$ 50 million, (compared to 280 million shares, at a value of US$ 61 million, on 02 July).

By Thursday, 09 July, Brent, up US$ 3.49 (8.9%) the previous week, shed most of that gain trading US$ 3.14 (7.3%) lower to close on US$ 39.62. Gold, having gained US$ 75 (4.4%), the previous four weeks, was US$ 16 (0.9%) higher to close on Thursday 09 July, at US$ 1,806.

After being dubbed “The Queen of the Skies” for the past fifty years, and having been on life support for several years, the end of Boeing’s 747 is nigh, with Covid-19 having hastened its departure. During the epidemic, it was estimated that 91% of 747s, and 97% of the European jumbos were parked. The plane-maker has just fifteen unfulfilled orders and its production schedule sees one 747-8 freighter being made every two months; twelve of the planes are heading to UPS and the remaining three to Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Group. Interestingly, the last passenger 747 was built in 2017 for Air Force One. It appears that both the last 747 and Airbus 380 will be completed by early 2023, having been superseded by the smaller, and more fuel-efficient, twin-engine jets – Boeing’s 777 and 787 Dreamliner, along with Airbus’ A320, A330 and A350. Over the years, 1,557 747s have been manufactured, of which 457 remain in service, far outnumbering the 242 380s ever made to date. Since, 2007, it is estimated that Boeing has lost US$ 40 million on each 747 that has been built, whilst Airbus has spent over US$ 22 billion, on its jumbos, and has only ever broken even between 2015-2017 in its 20-year history.

For three months of the YTD, Airbus has failed to secure any aircraft orders, with only net orders of 298 aircraft this year. In May and June, the plane maker delivered sixty jets, as the industry continued to be battered by the collapse in global air travel and the demand for new planes nose-diving. It is estimated that Airbus will do well to deliver six hundred planes this year, whilst 2021 could see handovers drop to around 350. Boeing is also reeling and, by the end of May, had seen orders for 602 planes, mostly the 737 Max, cancelled; the grounding of the Max for more than fifteen months allows buyers to walk away, without incurring penalties.

One of the world’s largest airlines has notified 36k employees (45% of their workforce) that they could lose their jobs, once the federal aid expires in September. United confirmed that 3.7k have already taken voluntary separation packages and warned that “the reality is that United simply cannot continue at our current payroll level past October 1 in an environment where travel demand is so depressed.” It expects that travel demand will remain moribund until a vaccine becomes readily available and the market does not like what it sees – YTD, its share value has tanked by 62%. The other two leading US carriers, Delta and American, share the same problems, with the former informing 2.6k pilots about a possible furlough and American indicating that it has 20k more employees than it needs to operate its much-reduced timetable.

According to its auditors, Ernst & Young, the survival of Asia’s biggest budget airline, Air Asia, is in “significant doubt”, as its current liabilities were US$ 430 million higher than its current assets. Like any other global carrier, Air Asia, founded by its current chief executive, Tony Fernandes, (also co-owner of Queens Park Rangers FC), has been badly impacted by Covid-19. The pandemic has resulted in a slump in passenger traffic, because of the severe travel restrictions, which in turn has led to a major drain on the airline’s liquidity and a record quarterly loss of US$ 188 million.

It is reported that HSBC is planning to cut 33% of its Paris-based investment banking and markets team over the next two years. In an announcement, the bank said it aims to “reallocate capital and resources to overcome the structural challenges in this business, to focus on profitable activities, reduce the cost base and thus safeguard our competitiveness.” Earlier in the year, the bank confirmed plans that it would be reducing staff numbers by 12.8% to 205k to save costs, as it faces historically low rates, for the foreseeable future, expensive IT investment and a turbid economic environment. It is also looking at divesting its 250-branch French retail banking arm.

Deutsche Bank will have to pay a US$ 150 million fine for “significant compliance failures”, as it failed to properly monitor the bank’s dealings with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Evidently, it dealt with hundreds of transactions for the disgraced paedophile, including payments made to Russian models and US$ 800k in “suspicious” cash withdrawals. The bank worked with the financier, said to be worth over US$ 800 million, and helped him transfer millions of dollars, including US$ 7 million to resolve legal issues and more than US$ 2.6 million in payments to women, covering tuition, rent and other payments.

The bloodbath on UK’s High Street continues, with news that Boots is set to make 4k staff redundant and John Lewis a further 1.3k as it closes eight stores. The country’s largest pharmacy is also looking at cutting more staff at its head office and stores as well as to shut forty-eight of its six hundred Boots Opticians practices; last year, the retailer announced plans to close two hundred outlets. Even before the onset of Covid-19, both retailers were in trouble and the pandemic has just brought their restructuring plans forward. Most of the Boots stores remained open during the crisis but the footfall was “dramatically reduced” and quarterly revenue in all Boots UK outlets was 50% lower, and 70% at Boots Opticians.

The pandemic has claimed yet another US economic victim, with Brooks Brothers being laid low, joining the likes of J Crew, JC Penney and Neiman Marcus who have recently filed for bankruptcy protection. The firm, one of the country’s oldest clothing brands, being founded in 1818, has already closed some of its five hundred global stores, 50% of which are in their home base country. The company, formerly owned by Marks & Spencer for thirteen years to 2001, and then sold on to Italian businessman Claudio Del Vecchio, is hoping to find a buyer but this could take time.

Travelex has had a difficult H1, starting the year with a cyber-attack, which paralysed the firm’s systems and a US$ 7 million demand from cyber pirates, followed by liquidity constraints, as a consequence of the collapse into administration of BR Shetty’s NMC Health business and the Covid-19 pandemic, which took off 90% of its customer base revenue at airports. The firm posted a Q1 loss of US$ 56 million, as revenue dipped 36.0% to US$ 140 million, which resulted in its net debt jumping 55.0% to US$ 415 million. Acquired by BR Shetty in 2014 for US$ 1.25 billion – and valued at over US$ 1.5 billion when it was listed on the London Stock Exchange in May 2019 – it was worth only US$ 97 million when its shares were suspended ten months later in March 2020.

With its lenders agreeing to take full control of Travelex, the deal sees its debt level reduced by 84%, as US$ 400 million Senior Secured Notes were converted into equity; a US$ 84 million cash injection will also be implemented. The other part of the restructure of the company, previously owned by BR Shetty’s Finablr Group, sees the company split between an Initial FundCo arm focused on servicing the wholesale foreign exchange market, (as well as its retail businesses in the ME and Turkey, Asia Pacific, Nigeria and Brazil), and an Optional FundCo business concentrating on its UK, North American and European retail markets.

Never in Fitch’s 104-year-old history has the agency downgraded thirty-three sovereign ratings, whilst putting forty countries on negative outlook. If global governments cannot bring down their ever-growing debt levels, and government finances continue to be stretched, there is every chance that further country downgrades will be on the cards. Fitch mused that up to 60% of these ratings will experience further downgrades over the next twelve months and that an economic relapse is more likely than a faster than expected recovery.

The Australian Tax Office is in court trying to extricate US$ 650 million, (US$ 150 million in back taxes and US$ 500 million in interest), from Alcoa, claiming that the aluminium giant has been under-pricing alumina sales that finally ended up with Aluminium Bahrain, also known as Alba; the case has rumbled on for more than twenty years. The Australian company, 60% owned by Alcoa and 40% owned by ASX-listed Alumina, could also face further administrative penalties. The ATO has increased its pressure on tax avoiders and is using transfer-pricing laws under previous governments, as well as stronger anti-avoidance laws introduced in 2016, to crack down on alleged multinational tax avoidance. Since legal cases are inevitably time consuming and expensive, it seems the tax agency favours out of court settlements; in the June 2019 tax year, it settled with ninety-eight companies, ending up receiving US$ 1.4 billion from initial assessments of US$ 2.5 billion and over the past four years, US$ 7.6 billion out of US$ 12.0 billion.

Next week sees the so-called EU meritocracy meeting to finalise its US$ 840 billion economic recovery plan to revise the bloc’s economy, after months of pandemic-induced fiscal hibernation. There are still major obstacles, mainly from the ‘Frugal Four’ – the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden – who are against the plan to dish out grants to those countries hit worse by Covid-19. They are in favour of amending the proposal so that loans – which have to be repaid – are used instead of grants that do not have to be repaid by the recipient counties, but then becomes a burden for the bloc as a whole. The leader of this group appears to be Mark Rutte, the Dutch Prime Minister, who is also advocating that recipients should carry out sweeping economic reforms to their bureaucratic and oft-archaic tax, pension and labour systems. Some hope there, with countries like Greece and Spain pleading such action would be “politically unacceptable”. In true EU style, there will be a last minute patched up agreement that will see the Euro on the backfoot for a time.

Despite several states reporting a pickup in coronavirus cases, US unemployment benefits applications declined by 1.3 million this week, with continuing claims down to 18.1 million against market expectations of 18.8 million. The markets responded with this better than expected news and it seems that investors now seem to be focusing on the benefits of economies slowly returning to some form of normality, rather than the rising number of cases in some locations – and the possibility of a second wave. Time will tell whether this is the right road to choose.

There are reports that the Johnson government may pull the pin on its arrangement with China’s Huawei technology in its 5G network by the end of the year. It would seem that, based on US sanctions, the Chinese company will be prevented from using US IP which could have a “severe” impact on the firm and could make the use of its technology “untrusted”. The initial government decision to invite Huawei limited access in UK’s 5G network irked the Trump administration and there has been tension in bilateral relations since then.

With the pandemic still killing Its citizens, there are some who think that the Chancellor’s move to cut his furlough scheme in October, a tad early. However, this week he did introduce a US$ 37.5 billion boost to the economy, so as to keep millions returning from furlough into unemployment, with measures including:

a US$ 2.6 billion “kickstart scheme” to create more jobs for young people, subsidising 16-24 year olds in six-month work placements
a temporary stamp duty holiday, costing US$ 4.6 billion, to provide a welcome boost to the property market
cutting VAT on food, accommodation and attractions from 20% to 5%, costing US$ 0.8 million
a US$ 1.2k job retention bonus for every staff member kept on for three months, when the furlough scheme ends in October, that could cost as much as US$ 11.8 billion if every one of the 9.8 million furloughed workers are brought back to employment
costing US$ 0.6 million, an “Eat Out to Help Out” 50% discount, of US$ 12 per person, which could help protect 1.8 million jobs in the F&B sector
a US$ 2.0 billion package for the arts and heritage sector
a wider US$ 3.8 billion plan to cut emissions, including US$ 6k vouchers for energy-saving home improvements
a pledge to provide 30k new traineeships

With the latest boost this week, the total cost of supporting the pandemic-hit economy stands at US$ 240 billion which somehow has to be repaid by the taxpayers who will have to see more of their earnings going to the public purse, with future increased tax measures a certainty. This level of spending equates to over US$ 3.7k for every person in the country and has risen by over 40% in one month. Prior to the pandemic it was estimated that the annual deficit to March 2021 would be US$ 68 billion – now it is forecast to be in the region of US$ 440 billion. Over the past two months, the economy has lost eighteen years of gains – and maybe there is worse to come!

A salutary message from Australia to those businesses to be careful what they wish for. When news of the effects of Covid-19 started to become more of a reality in March, hoarding became a reality, with households preparing for movement restrictions and lockdowns. Although common to many countries, it was Australians that hit the world headlines by their penchant to target toilet paper and soon none could be found on supermarket shelves. This was the time that subscription companies like No Issues and Who Gives a Crap saw their order books increase at least fifty-fold. In the first two weeks of the lockdown, No Issues went from an annual couple of hundred online orders to a massive 10k orders, with a workforce of only seven. On 03 March, Who Gives A Crap saw an 1,100% in business, with 10k daily orders. The demand was so high that they were unable to keep up with orders, resulting in long delays, and a dissatisfied customer base, either complaining or demanding refunds. A short-term massive boost will inevitably come back and bite you if not handled properly, and if there are insufficient systems and people in place to deal with such an event. There has to be some sort of sympathy for small companies that find themselves out of their depth in such extraordinary circumstances. If I Could Turn Back Time!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Airbus, Australian Tax Office, AVT, Boeing, Boots, Brent, Covid-19, Dubai economy, Dubai property, Gold, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Huawei, John Lewis, Travelex, US economy | Leave a comment

Video Killed The Radio Star 02 July 2020

Posted on July 3, 2020 by howesdubai

Latest data from Mo’asher, the official index of the Dubai Land Department, saw a 0.54% hike to 1.121, put down to pent up demand from the government’s easing of restrictions; for apartments, the index was at 1.189 and villas 1.060, its highest figure since last November. May sales figures of 1.44k transactions, with receipts of US$ 673 million, brought the five-month YTD total to 13.6k, valued at US$ 7.6 billion. Of the May sales, 66.5% were off-plan and 33.5% were existing homes. The DLD report added “there are increased opportunities for buying in the market due to the relaxed mortgage cap and the best mortgage products and interest rates we have seen in 15 years.”

Although still awaiting further details, Dubai Summer Surprises will go ahead from next Thursday, 09 July to 29 August, with more than 700 retail brands already signed up to offer promotions across more than 3k outlets, with discounts of up to 75%. Obviously, this year’s event will be different to those of previous years, with extra health and safety precautions in place. Since 02 June, Dubai malls and shopping centres have been allowed to reopen at 100% capacity.

Flydubai will resume flights initially to twenty-four destinations starting on 07 July, and increasing to sixty-six through the summer period, dependent on countries being able to open up and accept international travel.; bookings started on Tuesday. On the same day, Dubai’s Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management posted that residents can start returning home “provided the destination countries agree to receive them.” Under strict new regulations, Dubai is set to open up for overseas visitors as from 07 July, after being closed since 25 March. Both incoming tourists and residents will be required to produce a medical certificate, showing a negative Covid-19 test result, within the past four days – or undergo a mandatory PCR test at the Dubai airports. Those found ‘positive’ will have to be isolated “at an institutional facility provided by the government for 14 days at their own expense”.

Following federal cabinet approval this week, UAE now has six national airlines, as Wizz Air Abu Dhabi joins Emirates, Flydubai, Etihad Airways, Air Arabia and Etihad Airways’ low-cost joint venture with Air Arabia. The Hungarian-based low-cost airline, in a venture with Abu Dhabi state holding company ADQ, has already applied for an air operator’s certificate from the UAE’s aviation regulator. The new venture is expected to launch a bigger than first anticipated operation from Abu Dhabi, with a fleet of A321neo aircraft.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum has paid tribute to Saeed Lootah, who died this week at the age of 97. He tweeted that, “I have known in him a bright mind, wisdom and tranquillity” and that “he was a self-made merchant, with a mark on Dubai’s economy.” The entrepreneur founded the world’s first Islamic Bank, setting up Dubai Islamic Bank in 1975, to provide a Sharia-compliant alternative to conventional banking. Earlier this year, DIB acquired Al Noor Bank that created a financial institution, with assets of US$ 75 billion and one of the largest Islamic banks in the world. Mr Lootah also established a construction company, S.S. Lootah Contracting Company, as a joint venture with his brother Sultan in 1956. Over the years it has expanded into a myriad of sectors, including realty, education, healthcare, financial services and energy. He also set up Dubai Medical College and Dubai Pharmacy College. He has seen Dubai grow and was one of its pioneers noting that “In the old days, traders were different than today. Today traders want to make money, but the early traders wanted to build up the world.”

There was no surprise to see that Dubai’s GDP posted a 3.5%, Q1 decline, not helped by the arrival of the pandemic, leading to the emirate taking a hit from mid-March, with lockdowns and other restrictions. Furthermore, being a leading global trade hub did not help matters as international trade and the global economy were both badly impacted, with the knock-on effect being felt here in Dubai. Although still a major player in the local economy, accounting for 23% of Dubai’s GDP, trading contracted 7.5% in the quarter, with transport/logistics 5.5% lighter, but still accounting for 12.1% of GDP. The biggest loser, in percentage terms, was hospitality (hotels and F&B), declining 14.8% on the year; last year, it contributed 5.1% to the economy. The agricultural, manufacturing, construction and utility sectors, which between them added 20.5% to Dubai’s economy last year, posted a marginal annual dip of 0.5%. Not to be outdone, the banking and insurance sectors, which contributed 11.6% to Dubai’s well-being in 2019, nudged 0.3% higher, compared to Q1 2019. The healthcare and education sectors had mixed results with the former declining 3.7% and the other 1.1% higher, year on year. Even the public sector, accounting for 5.1% of Dubai’s GDP, managed a 0.6% improvement.

A 2018 IMF report indicated that Dubai, and its various related entities, had debts of US$ 123 billion, equating to 110% of the emirate’s GDP. This week, one of those entities, Dubai World, made its final creditors’ payment of US$ 8.2 billion, two years ahead of schedule – the final repayment of a ten-year 2011 loan, following the GFC, which left the company teetering on bankruptcy. Dubai World used funds from various sources to finally settle the debt, including US$ 6 billion from Port and Free Zone World, various asset sales, including the sale of Economic Zones World for US$ 2.7 billion, dividends from associated companies, including Infinity World, and a US$ 3 billion Dubai Islamic Bank loan.

With little or no flights, it seems that the busiest people at Emirates have been the accountants. It is reported that, over the past two months, the carrier has processed almost 650k refund requests, worth US$ 518 million.

In a bid to assist their drivers’ finances, Careem, in association with Visa, has offered its drivers real-time access to their daily trip earnings. The cashless payments service will start in the UAE in Q3, to be followed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan. The new system will give the drivers instant cash, instead of the current time lag in paying drivers that ranges from hours to days, depending on the market. Visa estimate that digital payments now represent at least a third of all face-to-face transactions, in nearly fifty countries, with the UAE figure higher at 50%.

For the third month in a row, UAE July fuel prices will remain unaltered, with Special 95 and Diesel selling at US$ 0.490 and US$ 0.561 per litre respectively.

Nasdaq Dubai added a further US$ 2.5 billion worth of Sukuk listings to its expanding portfolio which now totals US$ 71.1 billion. The three Indonesian government Sukuks – a ten-year US$ 1 billion bond and two US$ 750 million (one of a five-year maturity green issuance and the other for thirty years), were 6.7 times oversubscribed. The Indonesian government is the bourse’s largest sukuk issuer on two counts by both value (US$ 17.5 billion) and number of listings (fourteen).

In June, non-Arab foreigners accounted for 30% of the trade, valued at US$ 1.7 billion, conducted on both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses, with this sector preferring the Dubai market for purchases, at US$ 436 million and Abu Dhabi for sales at US$ 490 million. The total trades came in at US$ 5.5 billion, of which 61.4% was at the DFM.

Damac Properties is one of Dubai’s largest privately-owned property companies, with more than 1.4k employees and a presence in six countries. As of 31 March, it had about 4.4 million square metres of projects either in planning or in progress. It is reported that Hussain Sajwani, the founder and 72.2% major shareholder, is weighing up a bid to take the company private but this was later denied by company secretary, Magdy Elhusseiny.

The bourse opened on Sunday 28 June and, 192 points (9.7%) higher the previous five weeks failed to continue its recent good form, down 26 points (1.2%), to close on 2,087 by 02 July. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.02 higher the previous week, was US$ 0.03 lower at US$ 0.73, whilst Arabtec, up US$ 0.01 the previous two weeks, shed US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.16. Thursday 02 July saw the market trading at 198 million shares, worth US$ 61 million, (compared to 280 million shares, at a value of US$ 59 million, on 25 June). The bourse gained 94 points in the month from 1,971 to 2,065 but was well down (25.3%) from 2,765 to 2,065 YTD. Emaar ended the month up US$ 0.06 from its monthly opening of US$ 0.69 to close the month on US$ 0.75, but a YTD slump of US$ 0.35 from its 01 January opening of US$ 1.10. Meanwhile, Arabtec’s 30 June price of US$ 0.16 was up US$ 0.01 on its 01 June opening of US$ 0.15 and YTD US$ 0.20 lower from its opening year balance of US$ 0.35.

By Thursday, 02 July, Brent, down US$ 2.58 (6.2%) the previous week, regained that loss and more, up US$ 3.49 (8.9%) to US$ 42.76. Gold, having gained US$ 55 (3.2%), the previous three weeks, was US$ 20 (1.1%) higher to close on Thursday 02 July, at US$ 1,790. Brent had started the month on US$ 35.49 and the year on US$ 66.67and closed 30 June at US$. 41.15. Gold had started the month on US$ 1,737 and the year on US$ 1,517 and closed 30 June at US$ 1,800.

Latest data indicates that OPEC has cut its members’ production levels to 22.7 million bpd, its lowest level since the 1991 Gulf War. The group reduced output by almost two million bpd in a further attempt to flatten the supply/demand curve, and bring some sort of equilibrium to the market, caused by global lockdowns, travel restrictions and business closures.

In the US, Chesapeake Energy Corp has sought protection from bankruptcy by a Chapter 11 filing in a Texan court. The country’s sixth largest natural gas producer, US$ 10 billion in debt, has dealings with drilling firms and gas transporters that could be badly impacted if the company goes under and cancels regulated natural gas contracts in a bankruptcy court. This will be a serious problem for leading energy service and pipeline companies, already reeling from the recent collapse in oil prices – and an even bigger one for banks who have major exposure in the shale sector.

Last month, BP announced that it had cut the value of its assets by US$ 17.5 billion and this week it was Shell’s turn to warn that it may have to reduce the value of its assets by US$ 22.0 billion. It also forecast that the oil price will hover around US$ 35 this year, US$ 40 in 2021 and up to US$ 60 in the longer term. Since Covid-19, demand for oil has slumped, as many countries initiated lock down and travel restrictions, resulting in air travel slumping by over 85%. There is no doubt that the future for fossil fuels is uncertain and oil companies are beginning to hedge their bets much sooner because of the impact of the pandemic.

Ineos, owned by British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe, is set to invest US$ 5.0 billion to acquire BP’s global petrochemicals business, as the petro-giant transits to its new strategy of low carbon energy and becoming net carbon neutral by 2050. The chemicals business, specialising in aromatics and acetyls, has a big footprint in Asia and has an annual production of 9.7 million tonnes of petrochemicals. In 2005, Ineos, acquired BP’s chemicals subsidiary Innovene. BP has now divested all its standalone petrochemical assets, having shed US$ 15 billion worth of assets throughout 2019 and 2020.

In the aviation sector, Airbus confirmed that it will have to slash 15k jobs from its current payroll of 134k, of which 1.7k would be from its UK operations in Broughton and Filton, involved mainly with commercial aircraft.; talks with the various unions involved are continuing. Since the onset of Covid-19, and global air traffic tanking by more than 90%, the end-users – the global airlines – are not only reluctant to buy new aircraft but are also haemorrhaging cash reserves because their fleets still need maintaining and lease payments/loans serviced. With production dipping by more than 40%, the industry does not expect any resemblance to pre-Covid 19 activity retuning until 2023. Other aviation-linked companies also announced inevitable redundancies – Air France/KLM, 6.5k jobs, and EasyJet a further 2k, as well as closing three UK bases.

Tesla has overtaken Toyota to become the world’s most valuable carmaker, after its market cap touched US$ 209.5 billion, eclipsing its Japanese rival by some US$ 4.0 billion. This sort of valuation turns Economics 101 on its head, when Toyota has sold thirty times more cars (10.5 million to Tesla’s 367k) and had revenue of US$ 281.2 billion – almost eleven times greater than the electric carmaker’s US$ 24.6 billion. After years of never making a profit, Tesla has turned in three consecutive growth quarters, but the money will be on the Japanese conglomerate to return to its number one position before long.

Last year, Amazon boosted its investment in the car sector, taking positions in electric truck maker Rivian and participating in a US$ 530 million funding round in self-driving car start-up Aurora. Now, it is reported that Amazon will pay over US$ 1.2 billion to acquire Zoox, an early developer of self-driving cars. The two entitles would combine resources to create a ride-hailing fleet that would compete with the sector leader, Alphabet’s Waymo, as well as for Amazon to add the vehicles to their delivery fleet. The six-year old company was valued at US$ 3.2 billion, after a 2018 funding round, but plans to launch a pilot programme for its ride-sharing services were aborted due to Covid-19; in April, 100 employees were retrenched. The pandemic has only highlighted the fact that the industry was already facing problems and even the US$ 30 billion Waymo has not expanded operations elsewhere since its 2018 launch in Arizona.

Probably the clearest sign that the UK retail sector is in deep trouble comes with news that Intu, with US$ 5.8 billion worth of debt, has gone into administration after failing to reach an agreement with its creditors. The firm, which runs seventeen shopping centres around the UK, including the Trafford Centre, the Lakeside complex, Nottingham’s Victoria Centre and Braehead, also announced that its share listings on the London and Johannesburg bourse had been suspended. It is estimated that, in the last quarter, only 18% of commercial rents were collected and there are worries about the future of the 2.5k staff working for Intu and the 130k jobs in the wider supply chains. Although the company has gone into administration, the shopping centres are separate companies, owned by banks and other lenders, and are still open for business. Last Friday, Intu had a market value of just US$ 20 million, a frightening fall from its 2006 valuation of US$ 16.3 billion. The problems facing Intu and other mall operators, including online sales and a slump in rental income, (by 37% to US$ 390 million), will only get worse but the reality is that there is too much retail space in the UK.

Another week, another set of bad news for the UK High Street. This week sees the demise of Byron Burger as it tries to appoint administrators, most probably KPMG, to protect it from creditors while it seeks a rescue deal. The restaurant chain, with 1.2k staff and 52 outlets, is reportedly in discussions with three potential suiters and is hopeful that it can be sold as a going concern. Similar chains had been struggling even before the onset of Covid-19 and the virus has only exacerbated their troubles. In May, for example, Casual Dining Group, owner m of Café Rouge et alia, appointed administrators.

SSP, which has Upper Crust, the Caffè Ritazza chain, deli operator Camden Food Co. and luxury bar chain Cabin in its portfolio, announced that 5k UK jobs could be at risk, if the pace of recovery in the country does not speed up. SSP is very closely knitted to the travel sector and employs 39k staff worldwide across, with 2.8k outlets in thirty countries, including the US, China and India. With the huge reduction in UK passenger traffic, the firm confirmed that only ten of its 580 food and drink outlets were currently open but they expect the number to rise to 25% of its total food and drink outlets across the UK, mostly at railway stations and airports, to be open by Q4. You know when times are bad when your April and May revenue figures were 95% down on the same two months in 2019.

As noted in an earlier blog, Primark, owned by Associated British Foods, has seen monthly sales sink from US$ 815 million to zero overnight, as Covid-19 restrictions saw its UK, US and European stores closed; strangely, the shop does not have any on-line trading, claiming they would be unable to keep prices for its clothing as low if it that service were introduced, but does sell gift cards via its website. The company indicated that it would had to have laid off a lot of its 68k workforce, if it were not for various governments’ furlough schemes. As well as Primark, which contributes about two-thirds of the group’s revenue, ABF also owns food brands including Twining’s tea, Blue Dragon sauces and Ovaltine and is lucky in as much it has cash reserves of US$ 1.0 billion and an agreed US$ 1.4 billion loan facility. ABF shares were trading yesterday at US$ 2.43, giving a market cap of US$ 19.2 billion – down 28.2% on February – with H1 profits lower by 44.2% at US$ 270 million.

This week, as reality starts to hit home, and the furlough buffer begins to be tapered down, there has been a catalogue of redundancies and administrations confirmed by some big High Street names, including:

Harveys – into administration but still trading, with 240 job cuts and 1.3k positions under review
Bensons for Beds – in a pre-pack administration, the existing owners bought back the furniture chain but 35% of its 242 outlets will close
Casual Dining Group – 91 (Café Rouge and Bella Rouge) outlets will close immediately, and 1.9k of the firm’s 6k staff will lose their jobs
TM Lewin – weeks after being bought by a private equity company, the shirt and suit maker will close all its sixty-six stores and retrench 86% of its workforce with the remaining to focus on on-line shopping
Cath Kidston – its sixty UK stores, employing 900, will not reopen, having fallen into administration, with only its brand and online shop being bought
John Lewis – will close stores but numbers, and job losses, have yet to be confirmed
Arcadia – the Topshop owner is looking at 500 job losses
Harrods – have plans for about 700 job cuts.

The UK High Street is not the only one in the world suffering from the impact of the pandemic, high property rents and the rise of e-commerce. In Australia, Seafolly became the latest retailer probably to go under as it enters into administration. With forty-four local stores and twelve overseas, it joins a raft of other Australian retailers, including rival brand, Tigerlily and G-Star Raw, that have collapsed over the past two years. For the time being, the stores will continue to operate, having all recently reopened, following the lifting of lockdown restrictions. Although May retail sales rebounded – up 16.3% over the previous month – Australian Bureau of Statistics showed they were well down compared to May 2019.

According to official figures, 594k people lost their job in April and a further 228k in May. With job losses expected to worsen, there are certain sectors that have been hit worse than others, with retail, tourism and travel taking the brunt of the damage.

Even before the onset of the pandemic, retail was struggling with many issues including high, and often long-term, property rents, declining consumer confidence and e-commerce. Earlier the likes of Colette, Harris Scarfe, Jeanswest, Bardot and G-Star Raw had all entered into administration, as Myer, Kathmandu and Rip Curl announced store closures. Despite a Q1 boost in revenue, ahead of lockdown restrictions, with supermarkets having a boost with groceries and other household items being hoarded, the next quarter witnessed falls in revenue. Woolworths will eliminate 700 warehouse jobs in Melbourne and Sydney because of automation taking over. In May, Wesfarmers confirmed that up to 167 Target and Target Country stores would be closed or be converted to Kmart stores.

In the travel sector, Qantas has already retrenched almost 4.9k staff and last week announced it would slash 6k permanent jobs, whilst Virgin, recently purchased by Bain Capital, has temporarily stood down 10k (80%) of its staff. Australia’s largest travel agency, Flight Centre, has made 6k staff, either permanently or temporarily out of work, as it tries to get to grips on what to do with the closure of international borders and coronavirus restrictions affecting the domestic tourism market.

In the finance sector, there have been cuts announced by the larger firms, as lower revenue and dipping profits become the order of the day. To date, 80% of KPMG staff have taken a voluntary 20% salary cut for four months until September, with the firm announcing it was cutting 200 professional positions. PwC and Deloitte have announced staff cuts of 400 (5%. of its payroll) and 700 (7%). On the sporting field, Rugby Australia has lost 40% of staff numbers in a move to save US$ 4 million from its payroll.

Media has not escaped, with News Group announcing cuts as it moved from print to digital, with staff numbers falling 71% to 375 in the regional and community divisions of the organisation and a further 100 from the metropolitan papers. Meanwhile, the ABC has confirmed 250 jobs will be cut as the broadcaster’s budget has been slashed by US$ 60 million.

Another major pandemic causality has been education as enrolments dried up resulting in revenue shortfalls across the board. As examples, three universities – Wollongong, Charles Sturt and Central Queensland – are planning to cut up to 300, 150 and 300 positions respectively. A May Rapid Research Information Forum paper estimated that 21k full-time university jobs were at risk, including 7k in research-related academic positions.

It is interesting to note how the ASX200 fared over Australia’s financial year ending 30 June. Energy stocks performed the worst – down by 34.1% over the year’s trading, followed by Financial, Industrial, Communications, Utilities, Materials and Consumer Discretionary – all lower by 25.4%, 17.3%, 12.3%, 8.2%, 6.8% and 2.6% respectively. The only winners were Healthcare, Technology and Consumer Staples, all three higher by 25.8%, 15.1% and 7.6% respectively. It would have to be a fool to forecast what will happen this coming year.

Since the enforced lockdown of all its global shows, and zero revenue since then, Canada’s Cirque du Soleil is taking drastic action to avoid bankruptcy and is to cut 3.5k jobs after striking a deal with existing shareholders. They have decided to take over all the Group’s liabilities and invest a further US$ 300 million in a bid to restructure the entertainments firm, as well as setting aside US$ 20 million to provide additional relief to affected employees and contractors. The Quebec-based company, which is also receiving a US$ 200 loan from the province’s government and is set to shed 95% of its staff, is best known for its acrobatic touring circuses, including six in Las Vegas. It also has musicals – including Michael Jackson One and The Beatles Love. The company expects to rehire “a substantial majority” of terminated employees when normal operations return.

Not surprisingly, the US trade deficit increased for the third consecutive month in May, by US$ 54.5 billion, or 9.7%, as both imports and exports headed south by 0.9% to US$ 199.1 billion and by 4.4% to US$ 144.5 billion, respectively. Import and export levels were at their lowest sinceJuly 2010 and November 2009 respectively. The total trade figure, (export plus import values), was 28.0% down, year on year and reflects how global trade has been impacted by the pandemic. The President would not be too happy to see that the May trade deficit with China was 7.3% higher at US$ 27.9 billion.

In June, there were record returns, with 4.8 million jobs created – the best ever month since records began in 1939, as lockdowns were lifted in many states, leading to the reopening of retail, factories and restaurants. Last month, there had been 2.5 million new jobs, with a marked increase in consumer spending. Two million jobs were added in leisure/hospitality and 740k in retail. Despite this better than expected news, there was only a small decline, to 1.4 million, in initial claims for unemployment, whilst in certain states, including California, Florida and Texas, there is a possibility of scaling back and delaying reopening of retail/F&B because of the possibility of fresh coronavirus outbreaks. However, the jobless rate is above 11% and the employment figures are still fifteen million short of what they were pre Covid-19. Wall Street was happy with the news as the Nasdaq celebrated by posting a record high 10,269 points.

The UK economy is at its worst level since Q3 1979 and, when compared with the same three-month period a year ago, the economy shrank by 1.7%, with the services sector, which accounts for 75% of the UK economy shrinking by 2.3%; production and manufacturing were down 1.5% and 1.7%. March turned out to be an economic nightmare, as the economy contracted 6.9%, with consumer spending falling sharply in Q1, at US$ 26 billion, equating to 3.8% of GDP. Q2 figures, which will take in the full hit of the pandemic, will be catastrophic especially the monthly data has already reported a 20.4% slump in April – the largest monthly drop on record and equating to three times greater than the falls recorded during the 2008-2009 GFC. Some pundits consider that this has pushed sterling in a vulnerable position that could lead to a depreciation if a second wave emerged or no deal was signed with the EU by the end of the year. Others think the opposite could happen as many EU countries are struggling and if anything amiss happened, the euro could take a tumble. However, there is every chance that come Q3, the UK economy will bounce right back, perhaps up 10%.

Although big tech companies have been heavily fined by many global authorities, the likes of Facebook, YouTube and Google, seem to be treating them with disdain, as penalties have had little impact on their modus operandi. There has been a feeling that, like some banks, they are above the law and too big to fail. Despite every attempt to curtail their monopolistic activities, governments have failed whilst to date their coffers continue to be boosted by companies seeing a cheaper and more effective way to boost their sales.

Only last month, this blog posted that Amazon was in line for a potential US$ 18 billion fine by the EU for anti-competitive behaviour and the 2016 case, when the EC fined Apple US$ 14.4 billion for lowering its effective corporate tax from 1.0% to 0.005% and ordered the US behemoth to pay the money back to the Irish government; the appeal against the verdict is still ongoing. Last month, European authorities fined Google – for the third time since 2017 – US$ 1.9 billion for antitrust violations in the online advertising market. In 2019, Facebook was fined US$ 5 billion after violating a 2012 consent order concerning user privacy. It is also reported that the US House Judiciary Committee is concerned about increasing examples of anti-trust behaviour and could be planning to call the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook to disclose internal documents about their digital markets.

However, these government dealings and fines seem to be like water off a duck’s back to these tech giants but now they appear to be very worried because they have started losing revenue. More than ninety companies, including Coca Cola, Ben & Jerry’s, Hershey, Verizon, Starbucks, Honda, Ford, Adidas, HP, Unilever and Levi Strauss, have stopped advertising, temporarily at the moment, in support of the #StopHateforProfit campaign which accuses Facebook of not doing enough to stop hate speech and disinformation. Last Friday alone, Facebook lost US$ 56 billion in its market value (8.3%). The cyber world has finally found an instrument that could change the way these tech companies have been operating on their own terms, as data privacy intrusions, fake ads, corporate malpractices and political shenanigans had proliferated without too much interference to rectify problems. Facebook can ill afford to lose advertising revenue as it accounted for 98.5% of its total global revenue of US$ 70.7 billion; Google’s ad revenue was almost double at US$ 134.8 billion. Will boycotts be an effective way to cut the size and impact that these tech giants have had in the past – and continue to do so – where global government and regulatory action has patently failed? Could boycotts be a modern version of Video Killed The Radio Star?

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Australian economy, DLD, DSS, Dubai economy, UK High Street | Leave a comment

Do You Know Where You’re Going To?

Posted on June 26, 2020 by howesdubai

Do You Know Where You’re Going To? 25 June 2020

It has to be Dubai when it is announced that the emirate will have the first-ever climate-controlled ‘Raining Street’ which will see year-round rain along a 1 km boulevard. Developed by the Kleindienst Group and located in their US$ 5 billion The Heart of Europe project, it will reduce the summer temperatures to 27 degrees in a place that can sometimes top 50 degrees. The Raining Street, inspired by a 150-year-old architectural concept of Austrian architect, Camillo Sitte, will be a major tourist attraction in The Heart of Europe, located on a cluster of seven islands, four kilometres off Dubai’s coast.

Business is picking up in the local real estate sector, with news that for the first nineteen days of June, there were transactions totalling more than US$ 1.4 billion, well up from the US$ 763 million over the same period in April. Although off plan sales were lower, mainly due to the absence of new project launches, 429 ready properties were sold up to 19 June, compared to 675 for the whole of June 2019. After almost three months of lockdown, Dubai is ready to open up its economy once again, as the government takes major steps to ease restrictions. Over the past weeks, shops and malls have started to open up and this week, commercial establishments and offices are operating at full capacity. On 07 July, Dubai will be ready to welcome international tourists. Big steps like these only serve to boost consumer confidence and puts Dubai on the road to recovery.

Valustrat, which tracks realty values across the emirate, sees the market starting to move in the right direction, as there has been an improvement in the uptake of Dubai properties. The first three weeks of June has already seen a 9.0% improvement, compared to the whole of May. Sales, which subsequently saw a 50% fall, had tanked following the government’s March decision to close non-essential establishments, suspend all international passenger flights and restrict the movement of residents.

Since the lockdown started to be eased, Azizi has reported a rebound in sales and enquiries and is even hiring 100 employees to push the sale prospects of the developer’s fifty-four apartment buildings, still under construction. This is a courageous move in a market that seems to have a supply/demand inequilibrium, with an oversupply that could well continue to push prices lower, more so as the current pandemic has seen many companies laying off workers or cutting pay packages. Whether the 10% population shrinkage, expected by some analysts, actually happens remains to be seen. However, the doomsayers, who tend to knock Dubai at every opportunity, have to remember that the whole world has been impacted by Covid-19 and the emirate is not the only housing market to have suffered. Reports from both UK and Australia point to the fact that house prices there will come under downward pressure and that, partly because of an anticipated rise in unemployment and a fall in consumer confidence, their housing markets will not return to early 2020 levels for some time.

One hotel group is confident that the sector will bounce back quicker than most expect. Rotana hopes to return to 2019 levels of occupancy and profits by the end of 2021, as international travel restarts. Rotana’s CE, Guy Hutchinson, is “cautiously optimistic” about the return of visitors to the country, once they are allowed in as from 07 July, after an enforced absence of almost four months. He reckons that pent up demand for travel will result in a quick return of both business and leisure visitors.

The government continues its fine balancing act of weighing up the pros and cons of easing lockdown restrictions with those of opening up the economy, On Sunday, new travel rules were announced, with residents being allowed to travel overseas and for tourists to visit Dubai after a three month pandemic-driven break following borders closures from 19 March. All returning travellers must fill in a health declaration form before their journey to confirm they are virus-free and then undergo a Covid-19 screening test on arrival.

To help its with Saudi Arabia’s strategy to enhance its connectivity with its neighbours, DP World has tied up with Mawani (Saudi Ports Authority) to launch a new shipping line which will connect three ports – Jebel Ali, Jeddah Islamic and Egypt’s Sokhana. This will be the Mawani’s fourth shipping line venture. Last December, DP World, one of the world’s biggest ports operators won a 30-year old BOT (build-operate and transfer) to develop and manage the Jeddah port, and is slated to invest up to US$ 500 million to improve and modernise the Saudi port.

Arif Naqvi seems to have been a bit of a chancer and now it appears that he is having the last throw of the dice to escape extradition from the UK to the US where he would face fraud and money laundering charges. Now his lawyers are arguing that he should be tried in London arguing that most of Abraaj’s operations were carried out in the UK and that should be the ‘forum’ where the case should be heard. The 59 year old founder of the disgraced Abraaj Group, which at one time claimed that it was managing over US$ 14 billion in assets, was brought down in June 2018 following an audit, commissioned by a group of investors, including Bill and Melissa Gates, into the mismanagement of a US$ 1 billion health fund.

There was a US$ 500 million Sharjah Islamic Bank Sukuk listed on Nasdaq Dubai this week, with the money raised being used for strategic development. The five-year Sukuk, which brings its total listing on the local bourse to US$ 2 billion, was seven times oversubscribed. The latest trade sees the total value of Sukuk listed in Dubai at $69.3 billion, ensuring the emirate remains one of the world’s largest Sukuk centres.

The bourse opened on Sunday 21 June and, 183 points (9.7%) higher the previous four weeks nudged up 9 points (0.4%), to close on 2,087 by 25 June. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.04 lower the previous week, was up US$ 0.02 to US$ 0.76, whilst Arabtec, up US$ 0.01 the previous week, remained flat at US$ 0.17. Thursday 25 June saw the market trading at 280 million shares, worth US$ 59 million, (compared to 211 million shares, at a value of US$ 81 million, on 18 June).

By Thursday, 25 June, Brent, up US$ 3.82 (10.0%) the previous week, shed some of that gain, down US$ 2.58 (6.2%) to US$ 39.27. Gold, having gained US$ 20 (1.2%), the previous fortnight, was US$ 35 (2.0%) higher on the week to close on Thursday 25 June, at US$ 1,770.

Six global investors – Global Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield Asset Management, Singapore’s GIC, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, NH Investment & Securities and Snam – have become a 49% partner with ADNOC. The Agreement sees the formation of a newly formed subsidiary, ADNOC Gas Pipeline Assets, worth US$ 20.7 billion. The new consortium will have twenty-year lease rights to 38 pipelines, with a volume-based tariff subject to a floor and a cap. The Abu Dhabi 51% partner will retain ownership of the pipelines and have full operational controls.

Next month, Segway will stop production of its iconic two-wheeled personal transporter, which has carried millions of standing passengers on a wide platform. Since it was introduced twenty years ago, it has been popular with tourists in major global cities, and with many police and security services, but failed in its main aim to revolutionise the way people moved around. However, it was seen to be challenging to handle and was banned in some locations. Now with this revenue accounting for just 1.5% of the company’s revenue, and its scooter range more profitable, the company has taken Segway off its production schedule.

Following a reported US$ 4.4 billion quarterly loss – including a massive US$ 2.0 impairment charge – Carnival Corporation has confirmed that it has a preliminary agreement to sell six vessels, as it seriously looks at downsizing its fleet. The Miami-based cruise ship operator, which has been mauled by Covid-19, and cannot predict when operations will restart, has seen revenue slump by 85% to just US$ 700 million, as its adjusted net loss per share, expected at US$ 1.95, came in at US$ 3.30. The company has ongoing monthly costs of US$ 250 million and has a total of US$ 7.6 billion in available liquidity. Its rival
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will not start operations until October at the earliest.

Germany’s Bayer is planning to spend US$ 16.9 billion to settle 100k US lawsuits alleging the company’s weed killer, Roundup, causes cancer and settling other claims relating to environmental damage in the US. The global pharmaceutical giant, which acquired Monsanto – the maker of Roundup – for US$ 63 billion in 2018, is still facing thousands of other claims which may cost a further US$ 1.8 billion, including US$ 800 million to settle claims, involving the highly carcinogenic substance polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and US$ 582 million relating to damage caused to crops after the weed killer Dicamba drifted onto nearby farms, killing plants not resistant to the herbicide.

After resigning as boss of Wirecard last Friday, when auditors found US$ 2.2 billion missing, 50 year-old Markus Braun has been arrested by German authorities for inflating the company’s finances to fool stakeholders, including investors and customers, that its finances were stronger than they really were. The missing money was supposedly being held by two Asian banks, set aside for ‘risk management’, and now the company has admitted that “there is a prevailing likelihood that the bank trust account balances in the amount of Eur 1.9 billion do not exist”. Since the scandal broke, its market value has tanked by over 80% and the company that was valued at over US$ 24 billion, on its debut on the Dax 30 share index two years ago, is now worth less than US$ 3 billion, and still falling. It seems that Munich prosecutors have been investigating four board members, including founder Braun, over the past year for “market manipulation” and the London’s Financial Times has been running several articles of internal problems within Wirecard. It appears strange that any action had not been taken a lot earlier – and questions will have to be asked why?

Another German company in trouble is Lufthansa, with reports that it will mothball its fleet of fourteen A380s for at least two years – and maybe for ever – if long haul travel does not return to 2019 levels. Europe’s biggest carrier has already confirmed that it will retire half of its Airbus jumbos. The airline has indicated that the remaining A380s will be relegated from its primary airport Frankfurt to Munich, noting that “the chance that we will again operate any A380 (from Frankfurt) is close to zero”, but if there’s enough demand on “thick” routes, such as New York and Chicago, they might fly from Munich. Covid-19 could be the main reason behind a premature end to the reign of the A380, as both Air France is phasing out the jet and Emirates, its largest operator, is reportedly considering plans that could see 65 jumbos retired.

There were suggestions that the US$ 10.1 billion Lufthansa government bailout could hit the buffers, as only 38% of shareholders had registered to vote at today’s EGM which meant that 66.6% had to agree to approve the motion. If registration had topped 50%, then a simple majority would have won the day. If this did not happen, then the German flag carrier would have inevitably tipped into insolvency. There were concerns that the company’s principal shareholder, Heinz-Hermann Thiele, with a 15% stake, who had voiced his concerns that the government taking a 20% stake for the cash injection would dilute existing shareholdings, could scuttle the May deal in order to reopen talks for a better arrangement. However, at today’s meeting, he voted to approve the term of the government bailout deal and so it was passed without any problems.

Meanwhile, the troubled carrier will close SunExpress, its charter venture with Turkish Airlines, with a loss of 1.2k jobs, as it cuts its costs and network, as a consequence of falling passenger demand. The airline was used by German tourists, going mainly to Egypt and Bulgaria, and it will redeploy its fleet, with Lufthansa taking over all seven of its Airbus 330s, whilst Turkish will use the eleven Boeing 737s. Europe’s biggest airline could lose up to 22k jobs as it has already closed its Germanwings discount division and plans to cut its own fleet to 100 aircraft.

The Royal Mail, which posted a 2.0% fall in profit, for the year to 31 March, to US$ 226 million, is planning to cut 2k management positions, (about 20% of the management workforce), as it tries to get to grips with Covid-19 reality. Job losses will hit senior roles, with half the number set to face retrenchment and, on the back-office jobs in finance, IT and commercial, whilst front line workers will escape most of the flak; the job cuts will save Royal Mail over US$ 170 million this financial year. The pandemic has seen the recent downward trends of post continue at a quicker rate. Senior managers have been trying to pull the organisation into a better operating unit, with a leaner top management structure, but according to its chairman, the ‘company had “not adapted quickly enough to the changes in our marketplace of more parcels and fewer letters”.

Intu Properties has warned that it could go under within days if it cannot obtain further funding. The struggling shopping centre group, which boasts the likes of Manchester’s Trafford Centre and Essex’s Lakeside in its extensive portfolio, posted a US$ 2.5 billion loss last year, on top of a US$ 1.5 billion deficit in 2018. If talks with lenders break down, it could be as early as tomorrow, 26 June 2020, that its malls may start to close. However, Intu is still hoping to arrange a ‘standstill agreement’ with its creditors.

The latest in a very long line of UK High Street retailers having to call in administrators is JD Sports-owned Go Outdoors. After their appointment, the parent company, which initially paid US$ 140 million, in 2016, for the company that specialises in camping equipment, bikes and clothes, has now bought back the firm for US$ 70 million, in what is known as a pre-pack administration. With 2.4k staff working in 67 stores, Covid-19 has just crystallised ongoing cost problems in the sector, largely attributable to high, and normally inflexible, long-term rents. JD Sports has taken on all the liabilities and continue to pay wages and suppliers of the company. Recent times have seen Cath Kidson, Laura Ashley and the UK arm of Victoria’s Secret call in administrators and only last week, Pounsdstretcher launched a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).

A week after Wagamama, Pizza Hut and other food chains warned Boris Johnson that the sector faces mass job cuts, without more help, it is reported that Pret a Manger is struggling. It seems inevitable that there will be job cuts as global weekly sales, with outlets in the UK, US and France, have slumped by 85% to around US$ 3.8 million; its US operations managed sales of just US$ 125k in a week’s trading. Although the sandwich chain has reopened more than three hundred UK stores, they are only offering takeaway or delivery services. Pret is also continuing discussions with all their UK landlords with the aim of cutting rental costs.

One industry that was in turmoil even prior to the onset of Covid-19 – and now devastated with slumping demand – is steel. Consequently, Indian-owned Tata Steel, UK’s largest steelmaker, is seeking a government bailout package, estimated at US$ 625 million; if successful, it will save 8k UK jobs in Port Talbot, other sites in Wales, Hartlepool and Corby. The company has struggled to make a profit in recent years, posting a 2019 loss of US$ 460 million, as it has also been battered by rising production costs and international competition. It is reported that the government loan could be converted into equity at a later date, if the company could not repay the debt.

Nine months ahead of his initial target of making his company debt free, Mukesh Ambani has already raised the required US$ 23.0 billion to realise his goal, after a rights issues and divesting some of his assets, including a stake in its energy business to BP. India’s richest man has enticed investors such as Facebook and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, to put money into his digital business, Jio Platforms, as he tries to transform his energy-led empire; with these latest investments, totalling US$ 30 billion in 2020, Jio is valued at US$ 164 billion. On Friday, 19 June, shares of Reliance jumped 3.3% to a record high, giving the Group a market cap of US$ 146 billion. It is reported that Ambani’s latest target could be acquiring stakes in some units of Indian retailer, Future Group, which already has a partnership with Amazon.

The IMF has lived up to its reputation of probably being the worst global predicter, as it amends its April forecast for the world economy. It estimated then that the global and UK 2020 contractions would be 3.0% and 6.5%, now amended to 5% and 10% respectively. The IMF always gives a specific forecast for sixteen individual countries, each one, with the exception of China (which is expected to grow by 1%) they expect to contract; the largest change in the two months came from India which in April was expected to have marginal growth, now superseded with a 4.5% contraction. The more dismal news emanates from a sharper downturn than the earlier forecast envisaged.

On Thursday, Qantas announced that, with smaller revenues (because of lower demand) expected over the next three years, it had been forced to lay off 6k staff, (about 20% of its total payroll), as it had to cut costs to reflect the decreasing size of the company. Meanwhile, the airline (and its subsidiary, JetStar) will leave 15k workers on the government furlough scheme. With Australia’s virus curve flattening faster than most other countries, Qantas expects domestic demand to return to some sort of normalcy by 2022. However, with borders remaining closed until next year – and the collapse in global air travel – “international travel revenue” has sunk almost without trace. Currently, with the exception of New Zealand, all overseas flights have been cancelled until October at the very earliest and probably well into 2021. Apart from the payroll number reductions, other cost cutting measures introduced include raising a further US$ 1.3 billion in equity, as well as grounding up to 100 planes, including its A380 fleet, and deferring the purchase of new planes.

Bain Capital has reached an agreement with Virgin Australia’s administrators to take over the airline after its private equity rival Cyrus Capital Partners withdrew its offer. However, bondholders, who stand to lose a large part of their US$ 1.4 billion investment in Virgin as a result of its collapse, are still considering whether to put an offer directly to Virgin Australia’s creditors at their meeting to vote on the Bain deal.

Covid-19 could play a big role in the possible demise of two of Australia’s retail giants – David Jones and Myer. This comes after the country’s largest trade credit insurer, QBE, announced it would no longer cover the two department stores because they estimate that the default risk is too high. Both department stores reject the risk of default, but analysts say voluntary administration remains a real option for them as they struggle to survive Cobvid-19. A glance at their finances shows how bad things have become. Six years ago, Woolworths South Africa acquired David Jones for US$ 2.2 billion and now its value has more than halved. Myer, whose latest revenue is roughly the same as it was ten years ago, has seen its share value 94% lower, at US$0.17, than its price when first listed in 2009. Both retailers have been struggling for several years and were probably on life support even before the onset of Covid-19. The three final nails in their coffins could well be the growing influence of e-commerce, the rise of speciality stores and the high property leases.

The Fair Work Commission has raised the national minimum wage by US$ 9.10 a week, (a 1.75% increase), which will see two million Australians benefit starting 01 July; this equates to a minimum weekly wage of US$ 525, as the nation deals with its first recession since 1991. The commission was also concerned that the Covid-19 had had an “unprecedented” shock on the job market but considered an increase a necessity because, if not, some families could be forced into “poverty”.

Reality is beginning to hit home in Australia, as it has started to dawn on some that the government debt could top US$ 700 billion, five times more than the balance immediately following the 2009, and this will have to be repaid. At the onset of the pandemic, the federal government was already hocked to almost US$ 400 billion, at a time when the housing market was experiencing high levels of owner-occupier mortgage stress. There is no doubt that Australia has so far managed to put a lid on the virus but now it has to deal with an economic pandemic exacerbated by the fact that all its trading partners are being impacted in the same way. Global consumer confidence will be at an all-time low because of the massive effect it is having on the worldwide economy and on its major trading partners, so global trade will remain sluggish for some time. This is a depression that Australia does not need.

One country that also depends heavily on tourism for its economic survival is Thailand which now sees a Covid-19 driven slump in future visitor numbers; in 2019, the sector contributed 18% to the country’s GDP, this year, it is expected to be only 6%. Tourist chiefs are now changing their strategy, targeting big spenders, seeking privacy and social distancing, rather than the mass tourism of the past. Initially it is thought that visitors may be required to pass Covid-19 screenings, both before travelling and upon arriving, and will have to remain in a single location for a minimum time period before being allowed to travel to other islands. This year, the target is for just 10 million visitors – compared to 40 million in 2019 – generating US$ 39.6 billion, 59% lower than last year’s return. The Thai government has introduced stimulus packages, equivalent to 15% of the country’s GDP.

It has been estimated the US administration has pumped in US$ 2.6 trillion, equating to about 14% of the country’s output, since Covid-19 reared its ugly head in the country. Bizarrely, the Treasury actually managed to pay a massive US$ 1.4 billion to dead people because it did not check death records when posting stimulus cheques to the population; to date, 160 million pandemic cheque payments have been made, totalling US$ 280 billion, equal to about 11% of the total already injected to shield the economy. There are also worries that the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses – a low-cost loan fund that accounts for 26% of US pandemic spending – could be prone to fraud or inflated applications.

A recent UK survey concluded that lower-income households are twice as likely to have increased their debt levels, since the start of Covid-19, as they have been using their savings and borrowing more. The Resolution Foundation also noted that workers in shut down parts of the economy have average savings of US$ 2.4k, whereas those working from home had a buffer of US$ 5.8k. The think tank also discovered that the country’s wealth gaps had grown, with London and the SE accounting for 38% of all wealth – up from 28% over the past decade.

A word of caution for the UK Chancellor as he mulls over whether to cut the UK VAT rate in an attempt to boost flagging consumer confidence. Germany has already knocked 3% off its VAT rate and the temptation for Rishi Sunak is to do likewise, as it is easy to implement almost immediately and can then be reversed with the same ease. At the time of the GFC, the then Chancellor Darling knocked 2.5% off VAT. A study found that it was an expensive exercise, with an upfront US$ 15.6 billion cost over two years, equating to 50% of the Chancellor’s stimulus package. Perhaps the government will take a selective stance and target any cuts to pubs and restaurants and leave current rates for on-line sales. If the High Street returns to trading with mega sales and big discounts, then a 2.5% VAT reduction may have little impact on actual sale volumes.

After borrowing a record US$ 68.5 billion in May (nine times higher than last year), the UK debt, standing at US$ 2.4 trillion, is now worth more than the country’s economy. Whilst the government coffers have continued to suffer from falling receipts – including Income from tax, National Insurance and VAT – public spending has soared. The UK financial year starts in April, and the first two months, April and May, have already seen a record deficit of US$ 128.3 billion, compared to just US$ 20.7 billion for the same period in 2019. Latest estimates show the deficit at the end of the financial year, 31 March 2021, will be US$ 368.6 billion – an amount that somehow has to be repaid. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has a fine balancing act in front of him – he has to kick start the economy but in a gradual and safe fashion. Even when the lockdown is eased further, there is every chance that more public money will be needed. Whether this means tax cuts, or more direct spending, remains to be seen but it will be deemed as necessary as lack of any action will only damage the scarred economy even further. Tough choices lay ahead for the Chancellor and the question to him and the UK government is Do You Know Where You’re Going To?

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Adnoc, Dubai property, Gold, Lufthansa, Mawani, Reliance, Segway, Tata, UK Economy Australian Economy, Wirecard | 1 Comment

Only Time Will Tell!

Posted on June 19, 2020 by howesdubai

Only Time Will Tell! 18 June 2020

Nakheel has posted villa sales, totalling US$ 63 million, over the past three months, as demand jumps with consumers beginning to adapt to the ‘new normal’; of that total, US$ 40 million (70 villas) were in Nad Al Sheba and a further US$ 40 million (20 units) in Al Furjan. The developer confirmed that 70% of Nad Al Sheba villas, and 95% of the 400 plus villas in Al Furjan, have now been taken.

It is reported that the government will allow select categories of locals and. expats to travel to certain overseas destinations as from Tuesday. Travellers will have to adhere to regulations laid down by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship, and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority.

To the surprise of many, there will be four new schools opening in Dubai for the next academic year, hopefully starting in September. Dubai’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority said that there are currently 209 private schools, with about 300k students, of which thirty have been added in the last three years. The four new schools, that will add a further 4.1k capacity, will be located in Abu Hail, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Jebel Ali and Al Rashidiya, offering a choice of UK, US and Indian curricula. Last year there was a 2.1% growth in enrolments.

This week, the Dubai Diamond Exchange (DDE) opened for business, in line with the easing of restrictions across the emirate. Latest figures indicate that, in May, diamond prices nudged 0.6% higher. Diamonds play an important role in the emirate’s traded commodities which contributed US$ 100 billion to the Dubai economy, a 9.0% increase on the year.

Over the first five months of the year – and despite the impact of Covid-19 – Dubai Economy posted a 68% jump in renewed licences to 64.6k; of that total, 44.1k were auto renewed. This has come a long way from the days when a renewal took four visits and seven steps which can now be done by one call to 6969. This is an example of the ambition of the Dubai government to become smarter and to go 100% paper free by the end of the next year.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum chaired a cabinet meeting on Sunday which approved a scheme to offer bonuses to staff working in vital sectors for their dedication during the crisis. To qualify, staff must have worked at least for two months under the emergency conditions. The Dubai ruler added that “it is our duty to appreciate everyone who contributed and participated in bearing the burdens with us during the crisis… And we say to everyone, the UAE is always the best,” At the same meeting, it was agreed to set up a national platform for processing digital payments, Al Etihad, with the aim of providing services in a “safe, fast, and secure manner”.

The inflow of foreign direct investment into the country jumped by over 34% to US$ 14 billion last year, driven by major US investments in Abu Dhabi’s energy sector. According to a UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development) report, the UAE accounted for 50% of total regional investment whilst it surpassed Turkey to become the largest ME recipient of foreign investment. Meanwhile, FDI outflow was 5.5% higher at US$ 16 billion.

At a recent meeting, the Board of the Central Bank of the UAE reviewed the utilisation of the Targeted Economic Support Scheme and noted that to date, 16 June, seventeen of the twenty-six banks had utilised TESS and had drawn down their 100% facility; 140k of eligible customers have already benefited from the TESS liquidity facility. 88% of the US$ 14 billion liquidity facility has already been utilised by the banks.

Although still tracking in negative territory, May’s IHS Markit Dubai PMI increased 4.3 to 46 but was still below the 50.0 threshold that differentiates growth from contraction. Dubai’s economy is still reeling from the pandemic that has led to weak consumer demand, further cuts in the job market, softer falls in new business, subdued consumer confidence and a slow market response. Bullish Dubai is positive that it will come out of the crisis with its economic guns blazing, the only question is when, not if.

The IMD’s World Competitiveness Yearbook has placed the UAE as the ninth most competitive country in the world, ahead of the likes of the US, UK and Germany; Singapore topped the rankings, followed by Denmark, Switzerland and Netherlands. The Swiss business school classifies countries based on economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure, using twenty other sub factors and 338 competitive indicators. The country was placed fourth globally for economic performance and was the best in the world in 23 indicators, including an absence of stifling bureaucracy, better immigration laws, low central government foreign debt and the number of women in parliament.

According to Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Islamic Economy contributed US$ 11.4 billion, (9.9%) to Dubai’s GDP in 2018 – a 2.2% year on year increase. Dubai’s Crown Prince added that the emirate is well placed to lead the sector’s contribution to revitalise the regional and international economy in the post-Covid-19 phase. Of that total, F&B, the financial sector, hospitality and manufacturing contributed 43%, 26%, 17% and 14% respectively. S&P Global Ratings forecasts that the US$ 2.4 trillion global Islamic finance industry will grow at a reduced pace, with sukuk volumes shrinking, as the global economy slows down caused by Covid-19.

Dubai-based Careem has rolled out its new Super App across thirteen markets quicker than expected because of the impact of Covid-19. The app, backed by a US$ 50 million investment, combines all the ride-hailing company’s services, including deliveries and payments, and is aimed at boosting its profit margins. The Uber subsidiary will bring enhanced efficiency to the operation that will result in improved economies of scale. During the pandemic, its core ride-hailing business tanked 90% and its delivery business by 60% – and a speedy recovery to pre-Covid 19 levels is remote.

According to the Liquidators, it is alleged that the founder of disgraced Abraaj Group, Arif Naqvi, currently under house arrest in London, may have stolen US$ 385 million from his company – somewhat more than the US$ 250 million first estimated earlier by US prosecutors. Evidently, Naqvi was reportedly involved in more than 3.7k transactions to cover up his criminal methods as he moved the “illegal” funds to his personal accounts. At that time, the company was managing more than forty private equity funds, with over US$ 14 billion in assets. The firm has already been fined US$ 315 million for deceiving investors and misappropriating their funds.

Another executive, Egyptian Mustafa Abdel-Wadood, who used to work with the Egyptian arm of EFG Hermes was arrested last year in New York, as he was on a trip to the US with his wife and son. The executive, who is under house arrest, had four bail guarantors, including Naguib Sawiris, a former chief executive of Orascom Telecom and the Sawiris family owned Orascom conglomerate. Abdel-Wadood joined Abraaj Group from Egyptian investment banks EFG‐Hermes, where he was chief executive for the UAE, and prior to that, head of investment banking; earlier, he had spent eight years at the Orascom Group and was also a founding board member of Orascom Telecom. He will be sentenced in September. This has all the makings for a future Netflix documentary.

The bourse opened on Sunday 14 June and, 144 points (7.5%) higher the previous three weeks traded up 39 points (1.9%), to close on 2,078 by 18 June. Emaar Properties, up US$ 0.13 the previous four weeks, was US$ 0.04 lower atUS$ 0.74, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.01 the previous week, was US$ 0.01 higher at US$ 0.17. Thursday 18 June saw the market trading at 211 million shares, worth US$ 81 million, (compared to 310 million shares, at a value of US$ 84 million, on 11 June).

By Thursday, 18 June, Brent, down US$ 2.15 (5.4%) the previous week, closed US$ 3.82 (10.0%) higher at US$ 41.85. Gold, having gained US$ 18 (1.0%), the previous week, nudged US$ 2 higher to close on Thursday 18 June, at US$ 1,735.

The impact that Covid-19 has had on the oil sector can be seen from comparing the yearly demand falls in Q1 and Q2 of 6.4 million bpd and 17.3 million bpd respectively. For the whole of 2020, OPEC has forecast an annual fall of 9.1 million bpd, (comprising 5.2 million bpd in the OECD countries and the balance from the rest of the world), to 90.1 million. To maintain some sort of viable equilibrium, OPEC+ recently agreed to extend production cuts of 9.7 million bpd, until the end of next month and to keep a handle on production in a tapered manner until April 2022. The UAE is on side with these current production cuts and is on record that it targets a five million bpd capacity by 2030 – in April, it reached 4.2 million bpd, whilst current figures are just shy of 2.5 million bpd.

With global governments seemingly hell bent to speed up plans to slash carbon emissions, BP has cut its price forecast by 30%, forecasting Brent crude to be around the US$ 55 mark for the next thirty years. A week after cutting 10k of its workforce, BP has indicated that it will reduce its value of its assets by between US$ 13 billion and US$ 17.5 billion, as it will have to become a “leaner, faster-moving and lower cost organisation”. At the peak of the pandemic, Brent was trading at less than US$ 20 – 67% lower than its January average prices. There is no doubt that Covid-19 has ushered in a new reality and a different mindset to how we deal with climate change and a consequent lesser reliance on fossil fuels. It seems that in this sector, BP is leading the way and time will tell if their approach, to a harsh new reality for big oil, is right and whether other conglomerates will follow.

Jaguar Land Rover is expected to lose 1.1k jobs, as India’s Tata Motors Ltd raised its cost-cutting target by US$ 1.2 billion to US$ 6.0 billion, over the next nine months, in an attempt to survive the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak; the luxury carmaker has already achieved 70% of this ambitious target. The twin aims for JLT is to conserve cash and prioritise capex, even though it has cut this year’s budget to US$ 3.0 billion. JLR posted a US$ 600 million loss, attributable to a US$ 960 million hit because of Covid-19. Meanwhile, parent company, Tata Motors reported a 27.7% quarterly fall in revenue to US$ 8.2 billion and a loss of US$ 1.2 billion.

The UK’s biggest builders’ merchant, Travis Perkins, with 165 branches, has announced plans to shed 2.5k, (9%) of its workforce, as it forecast that the UK recession will continue well into next year. The group, which also includes Wickes, Toolstation and Tile Giant, reported that May sales volumes were 40% lower, year on year, but have been recovering in June, as branches started to reopen.

Wirecard, a German blue-chip Dax 30 company, and valued at US$ 30 billion, has seen its share value tank by 60%. This came about after the auditors EY refused to sign off the accounts, citing it was unable to confirm some of the company’s bank balance of US$ 1.9 billion – or 25% of its total balance sheet. The company said there were “indications that spurious balance confirmations had been provided” by a trustee “in order to deceive the auditor and create a wrong perception of the existence of such cash balances or the holding of the accounts”.

Despite its share price hitting a record high last week, all is not well with Jeff Bezos’ tech conglomerate in Europe, with the EU seriously considering charging Amazon for anti-competitive behaviour. It could get in real trouble – and in line for potentially huge penalties that could be as high as US$ 18 billion – because it has got so big that it is now in a position to run an online store and also to sell its own products on the same platform. Because Amazon has access to sensitive data – such as prices and volumes – of its rivals, it is thought that it could have an unfair advantage on the market as it will always be ahead of its competitors; it will also have the chance to promote its own products at the expense of third parties. Other countries will inevitably follow the EU’s lead and it is already reported that US authorities are not only looking into the tech giant’s practices relating to third-party sellers but also the alleged anti-competition of big tech firms, like Facebook and Google.

Another tech giant in the news was Apple, claiming that its App Store ecosystem had US$ 519 billion of trade in 2019, 85% of which the company did not take a commission; this figure excludes sales generated by the Android and Windows versions of the same products. Of that total, physical goods and offline services accounted for US$ 413 billion, whilst digital goods and services accounted for US$ 61 billion. It is alleged that Apple, with a market cap of US$ 1.5 trillion, has a bigger margin, estimated at 30%, than any other company from the mobile phone market and there are calls that it should lower the fees it currently charges. The US House Judiciary Committee is concerned about increasing examples of anti-trust behaviour and could be planning to call the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook to disclose internal documents about their digital markets We will then see if they are too big to fall.

Apple’s troubles were not confined to one side of the Atlantic as it is facing two EC probes – that other services cannot use the iPhone’s tap-and-go facility and the second being restrictions on third party developers utilising iPad and iPhones. Executive Vice President, Margrethe Vestager, is handling the cases and she is reportedly worried about the increasing power of big tech platforms. This follows the 2016 case, when the EC fined Apple US$ 14.4 billion for lowering its effective corporate tax from 1.0% to 0.005% and ordered the US behemoth to pay the money back to the Irish government; the appeal against the verdict is still ongoing.

Some European countries are upset with the tech giants, including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google, and their shenanigans to reduce their tax bills in an immoral and unethical – but usually perfectly legal – fashion. Finance ministers from France, Italy, Spain and UK have been in discussions with the US and others on an equitable way online sale should be taxed. The UK Chancellor, in a letter with others, has indicated that the coronavirus crisis has made tech firms “more powerful and more profitable” and that the tech giants need “to pay their fair share of tax”. However, the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has accused other nations of ganging up to “screw America”.

Over the past four months of the year, it is reported that Blackrock, which manages some US$ 6.5 trillion in assets, has deployed capital of almost US$ 18 billion in Europe, of which about 50% headed for the UK. The capital was split between roughly 4:1 between credit and equity, as 50% of the funds resulted from companies raising money after the impact of Covid-19. The US asset manager bought 3.4 million shares in cinema owner Everyman Media, and now is its second biggest investor, and 21 million shares in SSP Group, bringing its stake to 12.65%. Because of the current situation, desperate companies were in the market and utilised the bigger investors to raise funding quicker than the normal time period of several months.

The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that more than 197 million jobs could be lost within the travel and tourism sector if Covid-19 movement restrictions continue, wiping US$ 5.5 trillion off global GDPs. Only two months ago, the same body put that figure at almost half – 100.8 million. It also estimated that both international and domestic tourism would decline by 73% and 64% respectively. However, if curbs were lifted sooner, 99.3 million jobs within the industry could be saved, with the hit on global GDP reduced to US$ 2.6 trillion. Last year, this sector, that contributed 10.3% of global GDP, generated 25% of all new jobs and supported one in ten jobs.

Notwithstanding New Zealand, Qantas has cancelled all international flights until late October, as the Morrison government indicated that Australian borders will remain closed, for general travel, for the rest of the year. Both Qantas and its subsidiary, Jetstar, are ramping their domestic flights, with passenger numbers doubling over the past week to 64k. The nation’s tourism minister, Simon Birmingham, has also encouraged Australians to take their holidays within the country this year and admitted that “in terms of open tourist-related travel in or out of Australia, that remains quite some distance off”. Australian carriers will continue to make losses for the rest of the year and be part of a global industry that could post losses of more than US$ 84 billion.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed that the country’s May unemployment rate rose from April’s 6.4% to 7.1%, estimating a further 228k jobs were lost last month; the figures indicate that since March, 835k have lost jobs. However, there are some positive indicators – such as job ads and payrolls – that point to the fact that job losses may have already bottomed out. The number would have been worse were if not for the fact that there was a surprise 0.7% fall, to 62.9%, of people looking for work – the lowest level since in January 2001. In two months, the total of people in work had dropped 3.8% to 58.7% and the underutilisation rate – covering the unemployed and underemployed – hit a record 20.2%; the ABS estimates that around 20% (2.3 million) of the working population have been impacted by either job loss, or had less hours than usual for economic reasons, over the previous two months.

There are reports that the RBA, fearing a sharp fall in housing prices, was considering a housing market halt, (similar to stock market trading during emergencies), so as to avoid perceptions of a coronavirus-inspired housing market crash. Minutes of the board’s 05 May meeting, released publicly, noted “demand for both new and established housing had fallen” and declining incomes, confidence and population growth “were expected to affect demand for new housing for an extended period”. However, whilst internal correspondence highlighted the deteriorating situation in construction, falling incomes/confidence and that house prices could sink by up to 15%, the RBA painted a more positive picture. It is thought that the central bank’s reports on the deteriorating situation in construction had affected the announcement date of the Government’s HomeBuilder program, offering recent grants on new housing, which was announced on 03 June. CBA, the country’s largest lender, holding the highest number of mortgages of all lenders, warned house prices could fall 32% in a “prolonged downturn,” under a “worst-case” scenario. It is estimated that one in fourteen mortgages are currently “paused” by the major banks, equating to 429k mortgages, valued at US$ 105 billion.

To add to their troubles, it has been reported that the country is being targeted by an ongoing sophisticated state-based cyber hacking exercise. According to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the hacking was widespread, covering “all levels of government”, as well as essential service providers and businesses, and that the frequency of attacks had been increasing in recent times. He was almost certain that this is being carried out by a state “because of the scale and nature of the targeting and the trade craft used”. That being the case, the likely contenders are China (who have been at loggerheads with the Australian government over many issues), Iran, North Korea and Russia.

The IMF has confirmed what many already knew – that there is a “striking divergence” between financial markets and the real economy. One just has to look at the global bourses which are still going gangbusters and compare that to the doom and gloom surrounding global economies, reeling from the impact of Covid-19. The world body is concerned that if there is a second wave of the pandemic and economies worsen, there is every chance of greater volatility and sharper corrections. As an example, although the Fed is predicting a 6.5% decline in GDP this year, the S&P 500 has climbed 37% to recoup most of its losses since the start of the crisis. Despite the injection of at least US$ 10 trillion by central banks and governments, from all around the world, the IMF reckon that at least 170 countries (90% of total nations) will be worse off economically by year end.

Following big falls on the global markets last Thursday, because of rising cases of Covid-19 and a bleak view on the US economy, Friday 11 June saw a mini bounce back with shares ending higher, driven by a University of Michigan report of a bigger than expected jump in consumer confidence. All three US bourses posted 1% plus hikes, with the FTSE 100, the Cac and Dax all trading higher – by 1.74%, 2.0% and 1.25% respectively.

Although there has been a marked bounce back in US retail shopping in May – 17.7% higher month on month – it is still 6.0% lower on the year, with some sectors such as clothing, retail and bars declining even further; online sales were 30.0% higher. The good news may be a harbinger of things to come and point to the fact that the recovery in the world’s leading economy may come quicker than many have predicted – and just in time to push Donald Trump over the line for another four years, come November. With the US unemployment rate surprisingly down to 13.3% in May – and the economy adding 2.5 million jobs – it seems that the predicted 40% economic contraction will actually come in at a much lower rate. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, did warn that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery” and that a “significant number” of the more than 20 million people who have lost jobs in recent months are unlikely to return to work any time soon. For the 13^th straight week, US unemployment figures have topped more than one million, with 1.5 million Americans filing for unemployment last week, higher than expected; these claims remain more than double the 38-year old record. Today’s Labor Department’s report showed that nearly 20% – more than 29 million – were collecting jobless benefits as at 30 May.

Official data points to more than 600k UK workers losing their jobs in the three months to 31 May, whilst there are 2.8 million people claiming work-related benefits., jumping 23% in May. This is really bad news but unfortunately, it is inevitable that worse is to come, more so in October when the wage support schemes are pulled. Not surprisingly, there was a massive fall in job vacancies between March and May – which declined by 476k to 365k – whilst the number of hours worked sank by a record 94.2 million to 959.9 million hours.

As evidence grows that the Covid-19 hit on the economy may be less severe than first thought, the Bank of England has decided to pump a further US$ 125 million into the economy; this brings the bank’s quantitative easing programme to US$ 900 billion. That is a lot of money to lift the country’s economy out of probably its worst ever recession. This comes days after its governor Andrew Bailey confirmed that the BoE was ready to take all the required action to get the economy back on track after it was announced that the UK economy had contracted by 20.4% in April. Even though the outlook is still uncertain, there are still positive indicators, such as a pick-up in housing activity and a recovery in consumer spending. Earlier estimates suggested a massive 25% contraction in Q2 but now that looks it will come in at a much lower figure. However, the jobs market will take a lot longer with the prospect of higher and more persistent unemployment a reality and will take a long time to recover. Nobody really knows how long the recovery will take – Only Time Will Tell!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Apple, Australian economy, Covid-19, Dubai Financial News, EU, Google, KHDA, UK economy | Leave a comment

Staircase To Heaven

Posted on June 12, 2020 by howesdubai

Staircase To Heaven 11 June 2020

Dubai developer Croesus Holdings has been locked out of two of their completed low-rise projects, valued at US$ 27 million, in Majan, by Dubai Walls Contracting over a dispute relating to costs. Apparently, this is the latest of a number of potentially damaging disputes between the two major stakeholders in the sector – developers and construction companies. In this case, the developer has indicated its willingness to settle the dispute over differences between completion certificates and the developer’s estimates. It is reported that both projects have been sold to a third party and the deal may turn sour, if there is no early settlement, and if it has to go down the legal route, there could be a delay of up to eight months.

Dubai dropped two places to 23^rd in Mercer’s Cost of Living Survey of 209 global cities, with its neighbour Abu Dhabi dropping six positions to 39^th. Using New York as the base measure, the ranking records prices of hundreds of items in ten categories over the past three months to May. The five most expensive locations were Hong Kong, Ashgabat (Turkmenistan), Tokyo, Zurich and Singapore. The cost of living is the cheapest recorded in the emirate in five years, driven by a softer real estate sector and subsequent deflation.

Mercer also posted that 69% of GCC companies plan to adjust one or more elements of their compensation and benefits policies to partially alleviate the damage caused by Covid-19. It seems that the majority of companies have introduced salary cuts, intending for them to remain in place until at least September. However, sectors, including travel and retail, that saw revenue almost dry up when lockdown was introduced in mid-March, have had to take drastic action including, retrenchment, furloughing and putting staff on unpaid leave. It is reported that 28% of UAE companies have already brought in salary cuts.

This week, Emirates announced a further round of redundancies, following an earlier one on 31 May, as the realisation for the need of a leaner entity becomes more apparent; no figures were released but is thought to include all divisions. The world’s biggest long-haul airline, with a 60k payroll, including a reported 21k cabin staff and 4k flight deck, has already reduced wages and grounded most of its passenger fleet to preserve cash. As with other major airlines, Emirates has to cut costs to remain viable; two major cost drivers are fuel and payroll and, as the airline can do little, (maybe a little hedging), on the price of aviation fuel, it has to focus on culling staff numbers. The Dubai government indicated in March that it would financially support the airline because Emirates is such an integral player and probably the main contributor to the success of the emirate’s economy.

Tata Asset Management is the latest international group to open an office in DIFC, as it tries to expand its business, which includes mutual funds, portfolio management services, alternate investment funds and offshore funds in the MENA region. The company, a subsidiary of the 150-year old Indian conglomerate, has more than US$ 27 billion worth of assets under its management. Last year, its new base, DIFC, saw a 25.4% increase in the number of firms to over 2.4k, including 737 active global financial firms, up 18.0% on the year.

Dubai Islamic finalised a US$ 1 billion five-year sukuk, with an attractive 2.95% profit rate, that had the order book top US$ 4.5 billion, with 170 interested investors which indicates that Dubai is still a – and maybe the – place to consider for international investors. The sukuk was issued as a drawdown under DIB’s US$ 7.5 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme, which is listed on Euronext Dublin and Nasdaq Dubai. Earlier in the year, DIB acquired its rival Noor Bank to become one of the largest global Islamic banks, with more than US$ 74.8 billion in assets.

Commercial Bank of Dubai, 20% owned by the Investment Corporation of Dubai, becomes the latest UAE lender to extend foreign ownership of its shares to 40%, from 20%. According to its chief executive, Bernd van Linder, “it will allow us to broaden our investor base as well as sustain capital inflows in the UAE.” Earlier in the year, both the Dubai Islamic Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, lifted their foreign ownerships to 40%.

In order to widen its reach and become a bigger and more diversified conglomerate, it has been decided that Meraas will become part of Dubai Holding which “is set to combine a complementary suite of services and expertise to diversify the economy and maximise their competitiveness in the global marketplace”. Last year, Meraas, which already has a presence in several sectors including real estate, healthcare, retail and hospitality, signed a US$ 1.4 billion agreement with Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management to manage and grow a portfolio of retail assets.

Dubai Holding owns major companies including the Jumeirah Group (with twenty-four hotels in their portfolio), Dubai Properties and the Tecom Group that owns and operates ten sector-focused business clusters, including Dubai Internet City and Dubai Media City. Dubai Properties has numerous developments in JBR, Business Bay, Dubai Creek and Dubailand. The tie up with Meraas will expand its portfolio by adding resorts, like Pearl Jumeirah and Jumeirah Bay, as well as other projects such as City Walk, La Mer and Bluewaters Island.

This week, the DIFC invested in four “innovative” FinTech start-ups – Sarwa, FlexxPay, Now Money and Go Rise – in pre-series A to series A funding from the free zone’s US$ 27 million FinTech Fund that was rolled out last year. The hub, whose main aim is to improve the personal finances of regional residents, is considered to be in the top ten global FinTech hubs. The initial financing will assist these four start-ups with their expansion plans. Sarwa is a roboadvisory wealth management entity, whilst Now Money helps low income employees, by providing payroll services to regional companies and app-based accounts with physical debit cards and remittance options. FlexxPay is a cloud-based B2B employee benefits platform and Go Rise offers migrant workers affordable insurance options, retirement planning and the ability to pay for products in instalments.

Still in negative territory, Dubai’s non-oil private sector economy moved higher from 41.7 to 46.0 in May, at a time when restrictions started to be lifted, with a softer pace in both output and new business. However, one of the main drags continues to be weak consumer demand, at a time when further declines were seen in travel/tourism (posting a sharp fall for the third month in a row), construction (reporting its steepest slump in new work) and wholesale/retail. Although consumer confidence has been badly dented, during the lockdown, and will take time to return to pre-Covid-19 levels, there is every chance that the only way seems to be up for the Dubai economy. At the same time, the UAE’s PMI data nudged 2.6 higher to 46.7.

In a bid to build its market share, Islamic insurance company Dar Al Takaful has invested almost US$ 60 million is acquiring competitor Noor Takaful, in a deal that has already received the regulatory approval of the Securities and Commodities Authority and the UAE Insurance Authority. The cash deal will be bank-financed. Noor Takaful is part of Noor Investment Group, which in turn is owned by the Investment Corporation of Dubai, which earlier in the year sold Noor Bank to Dubai Islamic Bank. The fragmented insurance sector, which comprises sixty-two traditional and Islamic operators, thirty of which are listed on local markets is ripe for consolidation. Last year, these listed companies posted a 22.0% increase in combined net profit to US$ 436 million, as their gross written premiums came in 8.3% higher at US$ 6.5 billion.

In 2019, Embattled Drake & Scull reversed its terrible figures of a year earlier, by posting a US$ 71 million profit on revenue which dipped 14.7% to US$ 186 million, with other income generating US$ 36 million; last year, it reported that it had combined losses of almost US$ 1.4 billion. Its chairman, Shafiq Abdelhamid, commented that the company had been “dealing with the huge losses recorded in 2018, and the burden left by the previous management.” In 2019, DSI initiated legal action against the former management and started a major debt restructuring programme. That year also saw a 16.0% reduction in its negative equity to US$ 1.1 billion and the MEP-focused company had a backlog of US$ 170 million.

The bourse opened on Sunday 07 June and, 144 points (7.5%) higher the previous three weeks traded up 64 points (3.1%), to close on 2,039 by 11 June. Emaar Properties, up US$ 0.06 the previous three weeks, was US$ 0.07 higher atUS$ 0.78, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.03 the previous five weeks, was US$ 0.01 higher at US$ 0.16. Thursday 11 June saw the market trading at 552 million shares, worth US$ 81 million, (compared to 310 million shares, at a value of US$ 84 million, on 04 June).

By Thursday, 11 June, Brent, up US$ 8.74 (11.6%) the previous three weeks, has had its day in the sun and closed US$ 2.15 (5.4%) lower on US$ 38.03. Gold regained most of the previous week’s US$ 20 (1.1%) loss, gaining US$ 18 (1.0%) on the week to close on Thursday 11 June, at US$ 1,733.

It has been confirmed that BP will slash 10k jobs, (14% of its workforce and 30% of its top 400 positions), as Covid-19 continues to maul the global economy; it joins other petro-giants, such as Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron and Marathon Oil, who are all readying themselves to slim down as they prepare for a major transition in the sector. These redundancies do not apply to BP gas stations, who had already seen a pay rise in April. The gravity of the situation is demonstrated by the fact that 36.4% of BP’s US$ 22.0 billion annual costs are manpower-related and that in Q1, its net debt jumped by US$ 6.0 billion; it is spending a lot more than it earns.

Bombardier, with plants in Northern Ireland employing 3.6k, has announced that it would be cutting 2.5k global jobs, within its aviation division; most of the redundancieswill be in its home base, Canada. The lockdown saw the NI operation wound down, but with the easing of rules, currently 50% are back at work. However, it seems that the NI operation is still up for sale, following a company announcement in May 2019. Bombardier is expecting a 30% slump in business jet deliveries in 2020.

PCP Capital Partners have begun a US$ 19.5 billion civil claim against Barclays in relation to an investment deal with Qatar, accusing the bank of hiding the terms of a lucrative deal with the Gulf state. It seems that the UK bank had agreed to a US$ 2.4 billion 2008 unsecured loan to Qatari parties but concealed this information from all other stakeholders, including PCP who had introduced UAE investors to Barclays, who “subscribed” to invest £3.25 billion. The terms were supposedly the same for both investors, but it seemed that this may not have been the case. Barclays reportedly agreed to pay an US$ 320 million additional fee for advisory services and a “yet further fee of US$ 80 million” and provided “an entirely unsecured loan” of US$ 2.4 billion. Barclays capital-raising operation in the Gulf, of US$ 4.8 billion from Qatar and US$ 4.2 billion from Abu Dhabi, saved it from a UK government bailout. This case was brought after four of the bank’s executives were acquitted after an eight-year criminal probe and trial which ended in February.

Just Eat Takeaway.com has agreed to acquire Grubhub for $7.3 billion in a deal that creates one of the world’s largest meal-delivery companies. Uber had been in merger talks for some time with Grubhub but there were doubts that it would be acceptable to US regulators, as well as other issues remaining unsettled. They had even agreed on a ratio, valuing Grubhub’s shares at 1.925 to Uber’s 1.0. Grubhub had started in 2004 and in 2013 merged with Seamless to become a dominant force in the online food delivery sector but has since gone through difficult times. It has seen its US market share drop in recent times to just 23%, third behind DoorDash, the current leader, and Uber. Jitse Groen started Takeaway in 2000 in The Netherlands and, only two months ago, finally acquired Just Eat for US$ 8.0 billion, following UK regulatory approval. It is well known that industry profit margins, if they do exist, are wafer thin; even though both Grubhub and Uber posted 8% and 52% revenue hikes, to US$ 1.6 billion and US$ 4.7 billion respectively, both companies posted net losses. There is no doubt that consolidation is the only route to viability and profitability in this very competitive market.

There are reports that The Restaurant Group has decided that up to 120 of its 600 UK outlets will not open after the lockdown, with the resultant loss of 3k jobs. The group, which currently has 22k employees on furlough, owns Frankie & Benny’s and Garfunkel, with the former expected to bear most of the redundancies. The group also owns the Wagamama chain and some pubs but these are not expected to be impacted at this time. Earlier in the year, and before the onset of coronavirus, the company’s Chiquito’s fell into administration which then saw the permanent closure of 75% of its eighty outlets.

Other UK retailers were in trouble this week, following a big queue of already failed retail names. Quiz reported that it would go into administration, closing all its 82 outlets before buying them back so it can negotiate better rental terms with its landlords. 10.1% of the 915 employees will face redundancy. The retailer was in trouble well before the onset of Covid-19, as less people were shopping in their stores. Meanwhile, Monsoon Accessorize said its current structure was “unviable”, following the lockdown, and has put its assets into administration. Interestingly, it has sold the assets to a business controlled by Peter Simon, the founder and owner of the chain. The new set-up will renegotiate with landlords to obtain improved rentals for its 162 shops – and if successful safeguard 2.3k jobs. This is just the tipoff an iceberg -there is worse to come for the UK High Street.

Despite Inditex posting its first ever quarterly loss, as its revenue sank 44.1%, year on year, to US$ 3.7 billion, resulting in a US$ 450 million deficit, it did see its April online sales surge 95%. The owner of Zara, as well as the Bershka and Pull & Bear brands, is now looking at a future that will see online sales rising from its current 14% to 25% in 2022. During that time period, as well as closing 1k smaller stores, it plans to invest almost US$ 1.0 billion on big, centralised stores and its online platform.

Eight hundred jobs are at risk, with news that the UK arm of Victoria’s Secret, with 25 shops, has gone into administration; most of the employees were furloughed, prior to the appointment of Deloittes as administrators. The chain, famous for its fashion shows and edgy lingerie, had already been reeling from changing consumer tastes and weakened spending even before the advent of Covid-19 and had been branded as sexist, outdated and lacking diversity. The last annual reports, for February 2019, posted an operating loss of US$ 205 million. All shops will remain closed, as the administrators either find a suitable buyer or negotiate with landlords for lower rents; however, on-line trading remains open. Victoria’s Secrets is not the only fashion firm struggling, as both Cath Kidston and Laura Ashley have called in administrators since the beginning of coronavirus.

Mulberry is planning to cull 25% of its 1.4k global workforce, as a result of the impact of Covid-19, and with the ongoing prospect of social distancing measures, allied with reduced tourist and footfall levels, its income would continue to be affected. The 49-year old high-end fashion band has 120 outlets in 25 countries and ships its luggage and handbags to 190 countries. Earlier this year, Sports Direct’s Mike Ashley, who also owns Frasers Group retail business, bought a 12.5% stake in the Somerset company which also runs concession outlets within the House of Fraser and also throughout the John Lewis’s department stores.

There are reports that there could be a mega pharma merger in the offing between AstraZeneca and rival drug maker Gilead Sciences. With the UK-based firm valued at US$ 140 billion, along with Gilead’s valuation of US$ 96 billion, this could turn out to be the biggest ever health-care deal on record. AstraZeneca has developed treatments for conditions from cancer to cardiovascular disease, whilst Gilead has recently had its coronavirus drug, remdesivir, approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. Not only would this merger, if it were to go through, be almost triple the 2019 Bristol-Myers Squibb’s US$ 74 billion takeover of Celgene, it would be in the top ten M&As in history. Over the past twelve months, the share values in both companies have headed north – the UK drug maker by 41% and the US potential partner up 19%, but still a third lower than its 2015 highs. To date, 2020 has proved a disappointing year for M&As, with volumes already 45% lower year on year, including only US$ 100 billion worth of deals in April and May – it lowest two-month total this century.

One of the biggest sectors to have been ravaged by Covid-19 has been aviation, as passenger traffic has ground to a halt. The scale of the damage can be gleaned from IATA’s two latest forecasts. In February, the world body, with 290 member airlines, estimated that 2020 global airline revenues would decline by US$ 29 billion; its latest figures have risen to a massive US$ 419 billion. This is 50% lower, year on year, driving losses to US$ 84 billion, as passenger numbers halve to 2.25 billion. Covid-19 will be responsible for erasing fourteen years of growth returning the airline sector to 2006 levels.

Most major airlines have already instigated redundancies that seem to range from 15% to 30%, whilst many have already been recipients of state aid. They include the likes of Air-France-KLM – US$ 11.0 billion, American – an estimated US$ 10.0 billion, Cathay Pacific – US$ 5.0 billion, Delta – US$ 5.4 billion, Lufthansa – US$ 10.1 billion, Norwegian – US$ 1.6 billion, Southwest – US$ 3.2 billion and United – US$ 5.0 billion. It appears that many airlines have already started the painful task of culling staff numbers, with percentages of between 15%-30%. Lufthansa, for example, has said that it will cut over 16% of its 135k global payroll. In the UK, 25k of staff belonging to BA, Ryanair and EasyJet are on government furlough and 39k jobs are at risk. To date, BA has announced cuts of 12k (28.6%), Ryanair – 3k and EasyJet 4.5k – 30%.

Because of its reliance on its services sector, which makes up 75% of the country’s economy – and was badly hit by lockdown measures – the OECD considers that the UK will be the hardest hit of all major economies, coming out of the pandemic. According to their survey, the UK will see an 11.5% slump this year, (and 14.0% if a second wave occurred), slightly worse than some of the EU economies including Germany, France, Spain and Italy. In April, the UK economy shrank by 20.4% – the largest ever monthly contraction – and by 10.4% for the quarter ending 30 April. The fall is estimated to be triple that of the decline seen at the time of the GFC in 2009.

US unemployment rates surprised the market by actually declining to 13.3%, as non-farm payrolls, including employment in the goods, construction and manufacturing sectors, rose 2.5 million. It was noted that there were marked labour market increases in sectors such as leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. This figure is a sure indicator that the economy is improving, and the economic Covid-19 impact may not be as bad as many experts had predicted. Friday’s surprise news impressed the markets, with all three major bourses up in 05 June trading – Dow by 3.15% to 27,111, S&P 2.62% to 3,194 and the Nasdaq by 198 to 9,814.

However, on Thursday, 11 June 2020, global markets went into decline, driven by fears that a second wave of the pandemic is a possibility and that would have an even more damaging economic effect than the first. Even if that were not to happen, there is a growing realisation that a global recovery will take a longer time than most analysts currently think. The three main US bourses had their worst trading day in weeks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 7%. In Europe, there were 4% plus losses seen on all stock exchanges with 4% plus losses on the UK’s FTSE 100, the Dax in Germany and France’s CAC 40. There has been heavy selling on the Australian market after the ASX 200 had gained more than 27% since its late-March lows.

The US Labor Department reported that a further 1.5 million people filed new unemployment claims last week, so that there are still more than 30 million collecting benefits. Federal chairman, Jerome Powell, added a caveat to policymakers’ forecast that the unemployment rate could remain above 9% by the end of the year, adding that it could be optimistic.

The UK government has been accused of”a flagrant abuse of public money”. for handing out US$ 20 billion in cheap loans, with limited conditions attached, to fifty-three well-known firms that some may think should not have benefitted from the government’s largesse. They included US$ 1.2 billion to BASF, a German chemicals giant, US$ 2.4 billion to BA, US$ 720 million to each of Ryanair and EasyJet and US$ 360 to Hungary’s Wizz Air; other beneficiaries included M&S, Asos, John Lewis, Tottenham Hotspur and Nissan. The Bank of England’s Corporate Covid Financing Facility was set up, with the intention to assist companies, having a major impact on the economy, get through the crisis, whilst protecting thousands of jobs. It is noted that BASF only employs 850 in the UK and that BA, EasyJet and Ryanair have recently announced redundancies numbering 12k, 4.5k and 3k respectively.

Latest UK figures, as at 07 June, indicate there are 8.9 million workers covered by the government’s furlough scheme, equivalent to 25% of the country’s workforce, and costing the government to date US$ 25.5 billion. The Self-Employed Income Support Scheme, for self-employed workers, has had 2.6 million claims, costing US$ 9.0 billion, that is paid out every three months amounting to 80% of previous average profits. By October, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that it will have cost the government nearly US$ 150 billion – money that would not have been spent if Covid-19 had not arrived; this will equate to 15.2% of the UK economy.

As expected, Brexit negotiations are moving at a snail’s pace, to the point that the basic structure of what needs to be done has yet to be completed, with every possibility that the UK will finally leave the EU without an agreement. However, it seems that discussions are going well with other countries, such as the US and Japan, and there are hopes that several free trade deals will be on the table this year. Current figures show that trade with Japan topped US$ 38 billion, with 9.5k UK companies exporting to Japan. If negotiations are successful, it is hoped that it will make it easier for the UK to join the eleven-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which would boost its total trade access in the Asia-Pacific region.

Tomorrow Boris Johnson is to meet the presidents of the EU institutions and will repeat that the UK will not request a Brexit extension after 31 December, despite the end of June deadline to agree to a further delay of up to two years. No agreement would result in both sides having to trade on less lucrative WTO terms, which would include tariffs. In 2017, Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, famously posted his schematic diagram known as the “Barnier staircase”, indicating that if Brexit went ahead “Britain would be treated like any other third country with no special favours”. He indicated that the UK would have to make do with a plain FTA (free trade agreement), similar to previous EU agreements with Canada and South Korea. Then the French diplomat held all the aces in the pack and was dealing to a weak and vacillating UK prime minister, who had previously voiced her Remain preference. Now the EU negotiator has ruled out the possibility of an FTA and seems to be dealing with a weak hand. Barnier’s staircase may well become Johnson’s Staircase To Heaven.

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Brexit, CBD, Covid-19, CPTPP, DSI, Emirates, Global Stock Markets, IATA, Meraas, UK High Street | Leave a comment

Chiquitita

Posted on June 5, 2020 by howesdubai

Chiquitita 04 June 2020

The latest Cavendish Maxwell’s Property Monitor reported that Dubai property prices have lost 8.3% in value over the past twelve months, (an improvement on the 9.7% decline in 2018), but nudged 0.5% higher, month on month; prices rose to US$ 236 per sq ft. Because of the lockdown in April, physical viewing numbers suffered, so that 72.1% of deals were for off plan transactions; with restrictions easing, there will be a swing back to resale properties. In April, for the obvious reasons, sales deals were markedly down at 1.8k – 43% lower compared to a month earlier. Almost half the off-plan sales emanated from Dubai Properties (including La Vie (JBR), Madinat Jumeirah Living and Villa Nova) and Emaar’s Dubai Harbour and the Opera District).

Deyaar Development posted Q1 revenue of US$ 27 million and a profit of under US$ 1 million, as it made a US$ 3 million impairment provision on its investment properties. In February, it completed and handed over Dania district, the second phase of its six-building, 570 residential unit project, Midtown. The Dubai property developer also launched the project’s third phase – Noor District will house 593 units in seven buildings.

Microsoft opened its first ever artificial intelligence centre, Microsoft Energy Core, located in Dubai Internet City, and ready to start developing AI-focused technology in September. Its main function is to develop new AI technologies that could be used in the energy sector globally. The US tech giant has joined with ten other partners – Honeywell, Rockwell Automation, ABB, Sensia, Accenture, Aveva, Emerson, Schlumberger, Maana and BakerHughesC3.ai. At the same time, Microsoft also launched an AI Academy to provide digital skills to energy industry workers. BIS Research expects that spending on energy-related AI is expected to reach US$ 7.8 billion, within four years.

It was announced this week that The Big 5 event will not take place in November, as originally scheduled, but has been moved to September 2021. The four-day gathering for the construction sector, which comprises five specialised shows, is the largest regional exhibition that last year attracted 67k buyers, suppliers and experts. Although The Big 5 has been moved, Cityscape Global, is still scheduled to be held in November. A global conference of 12k chambers of commerce, that was due to take place next February, has been moved to November 2021 to coincide with the new dates for Expo 2020.

On 21 May 2020, Emirates restarted scheduled passenger flights to nine selected destinations, with these return flights continuing until the end of June. The selected destinations were London Heathrow, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, Madrid, Chicago, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne. This week, the airline announced that it would be servicing a further sixteen more locations as from 15 June – Bahrain, Manchester, Zurich, Vienna, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Dublin, New York JFK, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Jakarta, Taipei, Hong Kong, Perth and Brisbane. Emirates will be utilising their Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on these flights.

After posting a historic low of 44.1 in April, May’s Dubai PMI produced an improved mark of 46.7 and, although still in negative territory, it demonstrated that the economy may well be off its bottom. Although input prices are nudging higher, staffing cuts continue, sales revenue remain turbid and new orders plunge to new depths. Despite the lockdown easing, and businesses opening up again, many companies have yet to see the expected improvement in demand, with a marked decrease in new order volumes. It is still too early to comment whether the worse is over and what the recovery will bring and when it will occur.

The Central Bank reported that it was holding US$ 101.1 billion in total foreign currency assets – a 1.6% increase, year on year. There were also rises in current account balances (US$ 90.4 billion) and deposits with foreign banks (US$ 81.0 billion). The central bank’s held-to-maturity securities was at US$ 6.1 billion, with other foreign standing at US$ 4.8 billion.

Dubai Investments, which has the Investment Corporation of Dubai holding a stake, has declared a 2019 US$ 0.0272 dividend – equating to US$ 116 million. The Dubai-listed company has a myriad of interests, including in the real estate, construction, education, healthcare, food & beverage and financial sectors. The group, with a share capital of US$ 1.23 billion, has stakes in thirty-five companies, including DIP, Al Mal Capital, Emirates Float Glass and Emicool.

May trading on the DFM saw a pick-up in foreign buying, as overseas investment returned to almost 50% of its January total, when the monthly net gain was US$ 150 million. Since January 2019, foreign investment had climbed by US$ 627 million, with buying of US$ 10.7 billion outpacing sales of US$ 10.1 billion. March and April witnessed net outflows of a record US$ 208 million and US$ 49 million respectively whilst in May, there was a US$ 56 million gain.

The bourse opened on Sunday 31 May and, 66 points (3.5%) higher the previous fortnight, went through the 2,000 mark to be 78 points to the good (4.0%), closing on 2,039 by 04 June. Emaar Properties, up US$ 0.03 the previous fortnight, was US$ 0.03 higher atUS$ 0.71, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.03 the previous four weeks, was flat at US$ 0.16. Thursday 04 June saw the market trading at 310 million shares, worth US$ 84 million, (compared to 337 million shares, at a value of US$ 118 million, on 28 May). In May, the bourse opened on 2027, but shed 256 points (22.7%) to close the month on 1,971. Emaar started the month at US$ 0.74 and lost US$ 0.05 to close May on US$ 0.69, with Arabtec also down US$ 0.04 from US$ 0.19 to US$ 0.15.

By Thursday, 04 June, Brent, up US$ 3.64 (11.6%) the previous week, closed US$ 5.10 (14.5%) higher on US$ 40.18. Gold, US$ 7 (0.4%) higher the previous week by US$ 16 (1.0%), was US$ 20 (1.1%) lower on the week to close on Thursday 04 June, at US$ 1,715. Brent opened the month trading at US$ 26.48 and gained US$ 9.01 (34.0%) in the month of May to close on 31 May at US$ 35.49. The yellow metal headed in the same direction, from its US$ 1,694 opening for the month, to close May up US$ 43 (2.5%) to US$ 1,737.

Renault announced plans to save US$ 2.2 billion, as part of a new cost cutting exercise which will also see 4.6k employees made redundant and up to six plants closed; it will also see the French carmaker focus more on electric vehicles. Notwithstanding the impact of Covid-19, Renault, 15% owned by the French government, was already struggling as sales dipped and now is to cut production capacity by 18% to 3.3 million units by 2024. The carmaker has about a 4% share of the global market and saw sales 3% lower last year, and 25% down in Q1. The days when Carlos Ghosn, the former disgraced head of a three-way alliance between Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi, had grandiose expansion plans, to make 5 million vehicles, have disappeared and Renault have admitted “we have to change our mindset” and come “back to bases.”

Bentley is to cut 1k jobs (25% of its UK workforce), as it tries to come to grips with the economic meltdown resulting from Covid-19. The Crewe-based luxury car maker, owned by Volkswagen, which has been struggling the last few years, had seen vehicle sales 5% higher last year at 11k. The outlook for the industry is bleak, at least in the short-term, with latest figures showing that May UK registrations, at 20k, were the lowest May figure since 1952. This week, Aston Martin announced 500 redundancies and UK car dealership Lookers closed more showrooms, with plans to cut a further 1.5k jobs.

April passenger demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, slumped 94.3%, year on year, but subsequently daily flights have recovered somewhat, rising 30% by 27 May. IATA also noted that international passenger demand tanked 98.4% and capacity by 95.1%; domestic flight demand was 86.9% lower. International passenger traffic numbers fell around the world – ranging from Europe’s 99.0% to 97.3% in the ME. This week, it forecast that global airlines were expected to lose US$ 314 billion in passenger revenue this year – down 55% from 2019. No wonder then that many airlines have already declared bankruptcy, while others have secured large government bailout packages and introduced massive cost cutting. Such an example is Lufthansa, which reported a US$ 2.4 billion Q1 loss, that has initiated sweeping job cuts, with plans to sell of non-strategic assets to help repay a US$ 9.8 billion German government bailout loan.

The shortlist of potential buyers for Virgin Australia has been narrowed down from twenty to two – Bain Capital and Cyrus Capital Partners – with a final decision expected by the end of the month. Australia’s second airline to Qantas went into administration in April, with debts of over US$ 4 billion, owing to 12k creditors, including staff. Regulators will probably require that the “new” airline maintains a full-service line (to give Qantas some competition and hence lower prices to consumers), with unions wanting built-in protection for their members. Cyrus Capital already has links with Virgin founder, Richard Branson, but that will have little effect on the final decision, whilst Bain is probably the favoured of the two; the US company has been using the services of Jetstar’s ex-CE, Jayne Hrdlicka, who could well be the new CEO come 01 July.

In a bid to improve his liquidity base, Richard Branson is looking for a further US$ 200 million, as he tries to sell a share in his Virgin Galactic Holdings, which is valued around the US$ 1 billion mark. Any money raised will be used “to support its portfolio of global leisure, holiday and travel businesses that have been affected by the unprecedented impact of Covid-19.” He has also pledged Necker Island (located in BVI) to support his global businesses, (worth an estimated US$ 20 billion), that have been affected by the unprecedented impact of Covid-19.”

It seems that the world’s biggest luxury goods firm, LVMH, may pull out of its US$ 16.0 billion takeover of Tiffany, that was supposedly finalised last November. Now, probably put down to Covid-19, the French company has this week said it would not now buy Tiffany shares on the open market. This seems a logical choice as Tiffany’s shares have sunk by 15.5% from their November price of US$ 135 to about $114 a share this week. Tiffany’s has 300 stores and employs 14k, whereas the larger French predator has 4.6k global outlets, employing 156k; its brands include Louis Vuitton, Kenzo, Tag Heuer, Dom Pérignon, Moet & Chandon and Christian Dior.

Gap posted a quarterly (to 31 May) loss of US$ 932 million., compared to a US$ 227 profit a year earlier, due to store closures because of the coronavirus pandemic; net sales fell by 43%. The clothing retailer, with 2.8k US outlets, of which more than half have reopened, also provided for a US$ 250 million write off of non-essential goods it holds. Gap is being sued by one of its landlords, Simon Property Group, for non-payment of US$ 66 million in rent relating to 390 stores it operates in Simon’s malls that had been closed during the lockdown.

There have been very many losers as a result of the pandemic but one company that has benefitted has been Zoom Video which posted a 135 times, year on year, Q1 profit hike to US$ 27 million, although revenue only jumped 169% to US$ 328 million. Zoom expects Q2 revenue to increase to US$ 500 million and an annual figure of US$ 1.8 billion, compared to US$ 622 million for their financial year ending 31 January 2019. Its share value has tripled to US$ 208 since the beginning of the year.

As business travel continues to recover, Marriott has reopened all of its 350 hotels in China, with a 40% occupancy rate; in late January, the rate was at just 7%, at the peak of the Chinese crisis. The world’s third largest hotel chain noted that the impact of Covid-19 has been greater than 9/11 and the 2008 GFC combined. At the same time, Hilton also opened all their 255 Chinese properties. It is inevitable that it will take several years for hotels to return to “normal” occupancy levels, and will probably be the slowest sector to recover, compared to the likes of factories and production that seem to be quicker to get back to some sort of normality.

Following the continent’s biggest IPO of the year, at US$ 2.6 billion, shares in the Dutch coffee giant, JDE Peet, surged 13% on its first day of trading on the Amsterdam bourse last Friday, valuing the business at US$ 17.2 billion. The new business is largely part of the Reimann family’s investment firm JAB Holding which, in recent years, had acquired Keurig Green Mountain and Caribou Coffee, with investors hoping that it can now play on the global stage with Starbucks and Nestle. In 2019, the company, which also owns supermarket brands, including Douwe Egberts, Jacobs and Kenco as well as US retailers Peet’s and Intelligentsia, had revenue totalling US$ 7.6 billion.

According to the Institute of International Finance, last month, flows to emerging markets tanked 78% to just US$ 4.1 billion, with emerging market debt attracting 83% of the total and equities the balance, as the latter’s negative trend continued. Flows to China equities showed a US$ 4.8 billion net inflow, whilst outflows amounted to US$ 4.1 billion. Although some counties, such as India and Brazil, have yet to see the worst of the pandemic, it is abating in many of the G20 bloc countries, initially driving confidence forward; however, as US-Sino relations again deteriorate, this time driven not driven by tariffs but by disputes over Hong Kong and the World Health Organisation, emerging markets are still depressed.

The IIF also forecast that global remittances may fall by as much as 30% this year, which will have a negative impact on the major recipient countries, mostly classed as emerging markets. This was slightly more than the earlier World Bank estimate of a 20% decrease and a lot worse than the 5% decline seen after the 2009 GFC. The IIF noted that the countries most exposed to the pandemic, and oil price falls, are the economies that account for the bulk of global remittances. Another unfortunate fact was that Covid-19 badly impacted employment levels in industries that rely on migrant workers such as hospitality, retail, tourism and transportation which bore the brunt of lay-offs, thus reducing the amount of moneys sent “home”.

Moody’s continues to maintain India on a negative outlook, as the ratings agency downgraded India’s foreign currency and local currency long-term issuer ratings by one notch to Baa3 – the same rating given by S&P and Fitch. The agency is wary of India’s ability to cope with the challenge of implementing policies to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 and to deal with further stress in its financial sector. For over two months, the world’s fifth biggest economy has been in lockdown, that brought the economy to its knees, but Moody’s was keen to point out that this was not the main reason for its action; it is worried about “vulnerabilities in India’s credit profile that were present and building prior to the shock” as well the Modi’s government’s “slow reform momentum”. However, Covid-19 will probably stymie the country’s short-term growth in 2021, which will follow an estimated 4.7% contraction this year.

It appears that despite its troubled economy, there are strong buying opportunities in US realty, as many ME SWFs continue to show interest in certain sectors, such as select multi-family, office and industrial segments. Hotels are a definite no-no, with estimates that 35% of them will never reopen after the pandemic abates. Earlier in 2020, Bahrain’s Investcorp invested US$ 164 million in two US properties, whilst last November, the alternative asset manager, whose principal shareholder is Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, paid US$ 800 million for 126 industrial properties. Two local entities, Gulf Islamic Investments and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, have paid out US$ 230 million for a New York commercial property, and completed the purchase of 330 Madison Avenue in Manhattan. Returns from property in US real estate tend to be more attractive than the global average.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank maintained rates at a record low 0.25%, with the Australian dollar trading at US$ 68.13 – 23.6% higher than its mid-March level of just US$ 55.10. The main driver behind the dollar surge is that China, the first major power to recover from Covid-19, has renewed its almost insatiable need for Australian minerals, specifically iron ore and copper. Iron ore is trading around the US$ 100 mark – its highest level in nine months – and China accounts for 70% of the world’s seaborne iron ore trade and has more than half the global number of steel plants. Iron ore accounts for 16% of Australia’s exports, so any movement upwards is often reflected in similar moves with the currency. This is a major factor for the Q1 current account surplus widening to US$ 5.7 billion, equivalent to 1.7% of the country’s GDP, and the first time Australia has recorded twelve consecutive months of current account surpluses. Meanwhile, copper – at US$ 2.48 a pound – is more than 25% higher than three months ago.

As indicated, part of the Australian economy has bounced back with other sectors remaining in the doldrums. Whilst Chinese industrial production in April was 3.9% higher, year on year, retail was 7.5% lower. In addition, the economy will also benefit as commodity prices, including cotton futures, sugar futures and copper, move higher. There is a feeling that consumer confidence is heading north again after almost three months of lockdowns. The economy will suffer because of the travel ban – last year, Australians spent US$ 34 billion, when on foreign holidays, as overseas visitors increased the local sector’s revenue by US$ 41 billion, resulting in a net inflow of US$ 7 billion. It is certain that Australia will go into recession at the end of Q2 for the first time in twenty-nine years but there is every chance that the dollar will remain nearer the US$ 0.68 level, and be one of the stronger currencies in the developed world; interest rates will stick at 0.25%. Perhaps Australia will leave the pandemic in a better shape than most others – assuming US-Sino relations improve and there is not a second-wave outbreak.

However, for others, life in the lucky country remains downbeat. Two Australian economic sectors are facing an even bleaker future if the government’s JobKeeper, its US$ 40 billion monthly wage subsidy which assists some three million Australians, is pulled in September, as planned. Furthermore, latest figures from Digital Finance Analytics indicate that, by the end of May, the percentage of households in mortgage stress had reached 37.5%, equating to 1.42 million households. This will inevitably skyrocket, once the JobKeeper payment ends in September and then expect to see the number of defaults heading north. Both tourism and construction are forecasting that 400k jobs might go if the scheme is not extended and both are calling for increased government support, with the building sector looking for a US$ 85 million bailout. It is estimated, by the Tourism and Transport Forum Australia, that the industry, which employs 660k direct jobs, is losing over US$ 6 billion every month.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that it will cost US$ 7.9 trillion, and take until 2030, for the US to recover from the impact of Covid-19 that will skim an annual 3% off the country’s economic output, worth an estimated US$ 20 billion until then. Already it has seen trillions of dollars pumped into the economy, to try and keep it afloat over the past three months, and 40 million + claiming unemployment benefits. It is estimated that the May unemployment level will top 20% when figures are released tomorrow – four and half times bigger than March’s 4.4%, then a fifty-year low. The Congress is still discussing whether to implement a further US$ 3 trillion stimulus package, as well as renewing several soon-to-lapse federal aid programs. Chinese tensions are beginning to rise with the latest move seeing the US banning passenger flights from China from 16 June, in retaliation to Beijing refusing to let US airlines resume flights to China.

The eurozone economy contracted more than expected in Q1 – and at the sharpest pace on record – losing 3.8% of its value, with worse to come in Q2. Some countries fared worse than others, with the three sick men of Europe, France, Spain and Italy, all down by 5.8%, 5.1% and 4.7% respectively. Even powerhouse Germany, which has yet to release Q1 figures, saw unemployment rising by 373k in April but still at a relatively low level. The fact is that the bloc’s economy is in freefall despite the massive amounts of money being thrown at it by the ECB and other agencies. Just months after implementing a US$ 830 billion rescue package, the central bank announced a further US$ 670 billion increase in its bond buying programme to US$ 1.3 trillion, as well as extending the programme a further six months to June 2021. Spending at these levels could easily see the value of money decreasing, push government bond yields deeper into negativity and increase the worries of long-term inflation. Even the sanguine President Christine Lagarde is warning that eurozone economic growth could fall between 5% and 12% this year and that could easily lead to a weakening euro by the end of 2020 which may also suffer when the UK finally leaves the shackles of the EU.

Some members of the bloc are not happy with the terms of the recently introduced US$ 560 billion bailout package initiated by Germany and France. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte reckoned that the funds are not enough to keep Italy’s – and the bloc’s – economy afloat and that the EU had reacted too slowly to save members’ ailing economies, and also had not provided enough assistance. He also noted that “some EU countries are continuing to exert pressure for a ‘business-as-usual’ European budget and a modest recovery fund.” The other side of the argument sees the Frugal Four – Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden – arguing that they would prefer offering loans, rather than grants, and were opposed to a common borrowing fund.

In a late move to incentivise the German economy, Chancellor Angela Merkel has agreed to a US$ 146billion stimulus package, designed to boost short-term consumer spending, (including a US$ 360 payment to every child), and to ensure businesses restart investing. Some of the measures included a temporary reduction in VAT as well as increased investments in G5 data networks, railways and electric vehicles. One noticeable absentee is the auto industry that failed to get direct government support for purchases of conventional cars. To date, Germany once again has led the EU by introducing funds of more than US$ 1.4 trillion to fight the pandemic – the most by any country in the bloc.

It is reported that The Bank of England governor is warning the country of the possibility of a no-deal Brexit if talks with the EU mandarins break down. Andrew Bailey has called on financial firms to be ready for ensuring that the UK’s financial system could deal with such a consequence. Not helped by Covid-19, and despite on-going negotiations, with the UK and the EU in their fourth set of talks, there is still no sign of an early agreement. However, sticking points remain, such as common standards on the environment and labour markets along with access to fishing grounds. The BoE has, in the past, confirmed that in the case of a no-deal Brexit, most risks to cross-border financial trade have been mitigated and that the UK banking system would be strong enough to deal with it.

Nationwide reported that May UK house prices dipped 1.7%, month on month, the largest monthly fall since 2009, and saw annual house price growth halved to 1.8%. This follows April figures that showed property transactions had dropped 53%, compared to the same month in 2019. There was also a warning that “the medium-term outlook for the housing market remains highly uncertain.” Although some point out that, once the shock of the pandemic has passed, there will be a rebound, whilst others expect that the decline will continue for the rest of the year. The logic points to an actual decline in prices, on the back of lower household incomes, allied with a worsening in consumer confidence. BoE statistics show that there were 15.8k mortgage approvals in April – the lowest monthly figure since records began in 1993 – and a massive 80% lower than two months earlier in February.

As expected, Chancellor Rishi Sunak confirmed that the state furlough scheme, (by which the government contributes 80% of an employee’s monthly pay up to US$ 3k), will come to an end in October. In the meantime, as from August employers will have to pay their employees’ NI and pension contributions, then 10% of the pay in September, followed by 20% the last month of the scheme. Some 8.4 million have availed of the government initiative, which is expected to have cost US$ 96 billion when it comes to an end. It will prove a difficult manoeuvre for the Chancellor, who has to avoid crashing the economy, whilst withdrawing the very generous – but very expensive and very necessary – furlough scheme. Nobody yet knows how many of the 8.7 million jobs will disappear come October. An extra 300k more workers were furloughed over the past week, bringing the total to 8.7 million and an extra 200k claiming self-employed applying for government grants brings the total to 2.5 million; this has seen UK businesses borrow US$ 37 billion so far during the crisis.

Opened 42 years ago by Chaudary Abdul Hameed, it seems that Covid-19 may claim one of Dubai’s major culinary, cultural and tourist destinations. It is reported that Ravi Restaurant is struggling because of the lockdown, with revenue on some days as low as US$ 272 (1k dirhams). Ravi’s is internationally famous for its authentic Pakistani food, that is served at unbelievably low prices by friendly, efficient staff, (numbering 70), in a no-nonsense environment. The founder can still be seen at the Satwa restaurant most days although his son, Waheed, is now the MD of the business. He has admitted that “we have been very badly affected by this” and that “it has come to a point where we are selling off personal assets to repay debts”. Like many other businesses, a rent reduction/relief would help both his operations in both Satwa and Karama. It is hoped that we have not seen the last of Ravi’s chicken hani, mutton kebabs and Chiquitita.

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Australian economy, Bank of England, Bentley, Emirates, EU, IATA, India, Renault, Zoom | Leave a comment

The Lights All Went Out in Massachusetts

Posted on May 29, 2020 by howesdubai

The Lights All Went Out In Massachusetts 28 May 2020

According to Property Finder, and despite the Covid-19 economic impact, there were still 1.8k property sales last month, worth US$ 1.0 billion, of which 70% were off-plan and the rest in the secondary market. JLL estimates that 12k units were handed over in Q1, as average sale prices came in 7% lower, year on year, on concerns that there is an oversupply of properties in Dubai.

One developer moving forward is Kleindienst Group, confirming that the first occupiers of villas in their Heart of Europe project in Dubai’s World Islands will move in by year-end. The development of the World Islands was completed as long ago as 2003 and handed over to various developers five years later. Kleindienst is also developing two hotels, Portofino and Cote D’Azure, together with 1.5k rooms, sea-horse villas, now selling at over US$ 5 million, and ten ‘palaces’, with private beaches, that have all been sold. One of the more expensive properties, already bought for US$ 27 million, is a beach palace on ‘Sweden Island’. Currently, there are a reported 1.2k workers on site in the process of completing the two hotels, as well as building hundreds of smaller villas and apartments.

Accor expects the local hospitality sector to bounce back slowly – taking between 18 to 24 months – once airline schedules are returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, driven by pent up demand from both business and tourism sectors. The French hospitality group notes that the UAE will be the quickest in the MENA region to return to 2019 levels because of its resilience and that the emirate has always been a touristic hotspot and business hub. Dubai’s hospitality sector has probably been hit as hard as any other in the world when all travel came to a complete standstill because of enforced lockdowns and travel restrictions. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, there will be a US$ 2.1 trillion loss in tourism revenue and about 75 million global jobs will be lost in the sector. Accor has already closed 67% of its 5k properties worldwide, of which 350 are in the MENA region, and has furloughed, or temporarily laid off, 200k or 75% of its staff. The company, whose brands include Raffles, Fairmont, Sofitel, Ibis and Mercure, has 64 UAE properties, with a further thirty to be added over the next three years.

Dubai tourist chiefs will be closely watching Spain to see whether they can lean any valuable lessons when it opens up the country to foreign visitors in July. The government there has agreed not to introduce a 14-day quarantine, as has been the case in the UK. Spain relies so much on tourism, which provides more than 12% of its GDP, that opening up the economy, despite the risks involved, was seen as an economic necessity. Last year, the country attracted 80 million visitors, many of whom were from the UK; currently once such visitors return from Spain, they will have to self-isolate for fourteen days. Unfortunately, the same rule would apply to UK holidaymakers coming to Dubai which would have a negative impact on numbers who would have otherwise chosen the emirate as their vacation choice. The flip side of the coin would see the usual high number of UAE visitors to the UK drop significantly, as they have to isolate for two weeks on their arrival to the UK. No wonder business groups are petitioning the Johnson government to amend these regulations, suggesting a more “targeted, risk-based” approach.

There has been no change to petrol prices for June, as May prices had remained flat, following a 10% decline in April. Special 95 and diesel pump prices will retail at US$ 0.491 and US$ 0.561 respectively. The stations will welcome the increase in business, as lockdown restrictions are beginning to ease and some sort of normality is returning to everyday life.

Still pleading his innocence, following the collapse of NMC Healthcare, its founder, BR Shetty has indicated that because his UAE bank accounts have been frozen, he cannot pay salaries for some of his companies, including Neopharma and others. He seems to be admonishing banks for “without proof, they have taken this action” to freeze his accounts, even though NMC was placed into administration, with debts of US$ 6.6 billion owed to more than eighty lenders, of which US$ 2.0 billion is due to UAE banks. Mr Shetty is blaming seventeen ex-staff members – with their details forwarded to local authorities – for involvement in siphoning money, including share sales and equity collar transactions carried out in his name that generated a reported US$ 500 million over a two-year period. Another group company, and also listed on the London Stock Exchange, Finablr, that also owns UAE Exchange, has had its shares suspended since March, after it was found that previously unreported debts of US$ 1.0 billion had been discovered.

As it continues to maintain its confidence in the sector, Yellow Door Energy is planning to raise a further US$ 100 million in debt finance, partly because of an estimated 18% reduction in 2020 revenue, attributable to the pandemic. The Dubai-based company, with interests in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, still expects to have about US$ 110 million of projects operating come the end of 2020, as well as to reach 100MW of capacity, with 55MW under construction. The five-year old company, spun off then by solar energy investor Adenium Energy Capital, has investors, including the International Finance Corporation, Mitsui & Co and Norway’s Equinor Energy Ventures. Although global bodies, such as the World Economic Forum, are worried that Covid-19 might be a catalyst to slow down the drive to clean energy growth, the company is confident that business will remain on track, as it continues to focus on existing markets. Currently, it has three on-going projects in Pakistan and is “actively looking for new investments”.

A decade after a significant project had been completed, Union Properties has lodged a claim that “is related to construction work for a significant project that was completed around ten years ago”. Surrounded by a little bit of mystery, the concerned parties – a UP subsidiary and an entity that carried out the work – have yet to be named, as is the project concerned. However, what is known is that an arbitration process, to recover about US$ 409 million, has been initiated by a UP subsidiary. The company also announced that it will not “spare any effort in pursuit of the collection of the amount owed, and is taking the proper legal procedures, which are in the interests of the company’s shareholders”. In 2019, the embattled developer posted a US$ 60 million loss, following a US$ 17 million profit in 2018.

Amanat Holdings, currently listed on the DFM and an investor in healthcare and education businesses, plans to move its headquarters to Abu Dhabi and list its shares on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. The nature of its businesses has obviously been negatively impacted by Covid-19 and has resulted in the need to cut costs and restructure the business model. One of its first measures has seen top management take voluntary pay cuts and, with no redundancies currently necessary, this has allowed the senior team to remain together to look for growth opportunities and additional regional investments. Amanat, which posted a 40% jump in 2019 profit to US$ 11 million, already holds shares in Middlesex University Dubai, Abu Dhabi University Holding Company and Jeddah’s 300-bed hospital, International Medical Centre.

Although Q1 revenue was 33.9% higher at US$ 327 million, Damac announced a US$ 26 million loss for the quarter, (compared to an US$ 8 million profit last year). The two main drivers for the deficit were impairment provisions of US$ 35 million, against the value of development properties, and a US$ 14 million charge in relation to trade receivables. Its share value at the close of trading last Thursday was US$ 0.169, equating to a market value of US$ 1.0 billion. Cognisant of the fact that there is an apparent oversupply in the local market, the chairman, Hussain Sajwani, has reiterated that “in 2020, we will remain focused on delivering projects that are already in our development pipeline,” as Damac tries to bring the supply/demand curve to some sort of equilibrium. In Q1, the developer delivered 650 units in its Akoya master community.

Because of the Eid holiday, the bourse opened on Wednesday 27 May and, 45 points (2.4%) higher the previous week, after two days’ trading was 21 points to the good (2.4%), to close on 1,961 by 28 May. Emaar Properties, up US$ 0.01 the previous week, was US$ 0.02 higher atUS$ 0.68, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.02 the previous three weeks, was US$ 0.01 lower at US$ 0.16. Thursday 28 May saw the market trading at 337 million shares, worth US$ 118 million, (compared to 252 million shares, at a value of US$ 101 million, on 21 May).

By Thursday, 28 May, Brent, lower by US$ 0.08 the previous week, closed US$ 3.64 (11.6%) higher on US$ 35.08. Gold, down the previous week by US$ 16 (1.0%), nudged up US$ 7 (0.4%) on the week to close on Thursday 28 May, at US$ 1,735.

It seems that the Macron government will bailout Air France, with a US$ 7.7 billion finance package on condition it halves its carbon dioxide emissions by 2024. To meet this target, the carrier would have to “drastically” reduce domestic air traffic – a heavy price to pay since last year it was already losing US$ 220 million on its domestic network. In Q1, it posted a US$ 2.0 billion loss and, because of the lockdown restrictions, is currently operating only 5% of its usual schedule. By the end of next month, it hopes to have 15% of its scheduled flights operating.

Having closed its budget airline Germanwings last month, Lufthansa has negotiated a US$ 9.6 billion state rescue deal to save it from collapse, with the government becoming a 20% shareholder, which it proposes to sell within three years. Part of the package also includes a US$ 6.3 billion non-voting capital, which can be converted to an additional 5% equity stake, which would then allow the government to veto any hostile takeover bid. The deal, which has saved 10k jobs, still has to be ratified by the shareholders and the EC. The Merkel government has set up a US$ 120 billion fund to shore up, and “save” legacy companies, such as Lufthansa, that had been viable prior to the pandemic.

A decision by Germany’s highest court has paved the way for 60k similar cases to take similar action against Volkswagen, who seem to have already agreed to offering affected motorists a one-off payment. It ruled that VW had to pay compensation, being partial reimbursement with depreciation taken into account, to a buyer of one of its diesel minivans, fitted with emissions-cheating software. It has already paid out a massive US$ 33 billion in fines, compensation and buyback schemes over the past five years and has already settled a US$ 910 million separate class action by 235k German car owners. It is now facing similar action in the UK where 90k are chasing the German car giant (including its other brands – Seat, Skoda and Audi) for damages. The company – and some of its senior employees – are paying the price for using illegal software, by fitting a “defeat device”, which alerted diesel engines when they were being tested.

There are reports that SoftBank’s Vision Fund could be retrenching almost 10% (500) of its workforce, as it comes to terms of horrific Q1 figures when, because of the declining value in start-ups, it racked up losses of US$ 18 billion. This came after a US$ 17.7 billion loss for the US$ 100 billion Vision Fund, attributable to the writing down of the value of investments, including WeWork and Uber. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son estimates that of the eighty companies in its portfolio, led by ex-Deutsche Bank’s Rajeev Misra, 18.8% will probably go bankrupt. Son realises that it is difficult to find new investors when results are so bad and so has to invest internal money – he has plans to divest US$ 42 billion in assets, including a near 50% stake in dog-walking start-up Wag Labs, to finance stock buybacks and pay down debt.

April saw UK car manufacturing in dire straits in a month that only 197 premium and luxury sports vehicles were produced – 99.7% lower than a year earlier. Last year, the UK manufactured 1.3 million vehicles, of which 82% were exported, although exports did decline 14.7%. In March, manufacturing was 37.6% lower at 79k, with Q1 figures 13.8% lower at 319k, whilst exports hovered around the 79% level. Now the aim of the industry is to ramp up manufacturing, as quickly as possible, as it could have already lost 400k sales equating to US$ 15.0 billion in revenues and also valuable exports.

Chief Executive Andy Palmer has paid the ultimate price for being in charge of a company that had seen its share price nosedive 94% since its October 2018 listing. The Aston Martin boss had been in charge for the past six years and the carmaker was struggling even before the coronavirus crisis hit sales, with its share price trading at just US$ 0.42. In Q1, unit sales halved to just 578 units., with the losses seven time higher at US$ 143 million. In January, the 107-year old company raised emergency funding of US$ 500 million, of which 37% was attributable to Lawrence Stroll, part owner of Racing Point Formula 1; the deal will also see a rebranding of his F1 team to Aston Martin next year.

Another UK car maker in trouble is McLaren which plans to slash its 4k workforce by 30%, as sales have slumped and advertising revenue tanked, having been “severely affected” by the crisis. The supercar maker has been impacted by F1 racing being suspended and slowing car sales; its 800-strong workforce at its Formula 1 operation will see cuts of about 9% initially, but because of a recently introduced sport-wide budget cap will see more redundancies next year. All F1 teams – including Mercedes Ferrari and Red Bull – will have to adhere to the new rules that includes reducing head counts.

To the dismay of so many Australians, Wesfarmers, the owner of the much-loved Target brand, has either to close – or rebrand – 167 Target sites. Since Target is operating in the same sector as its more “successful” sister, Kmart, the owners have decided to rebrand 92 of the stores and close the remaining 75. Kmart was always considered the “higher-priced”, but more popular alternative, with the Australian public whilst moving away from successful collaborations with designers such as Stella McCartney. Where Kmart was successful, was with their embracing online trading and convincing the public that it had a preference for the Kmart brand. Now that consumer confidence is at an all-time low, and wages growth stalled, it is logical why Wesfarmers has decided to opt for Kmart, especially with increased competition from the likes of Uniqlo and H&M. There is no doubt that with overall retail spending falling by US$ 215 billion – with online trading currently growing at 10% – the retail pie will only accommodate a certain balance of consumer spend and this is going south so that physical stores will suffer and close.

A major Australian “cock up” has seen the number of people on JobKeeper reduced from 6.5 million to 3.0 million and that the cost to the government of running the scheme being cut from US$ 80 billion to US$ 43 billion. According to the ATO, the error was caused by some 1k businesses wrongly filling out their applications and, in true bureaucratic style, the problem has been deftly handballed away from their court. However, they did concede that the application form “could have been more straightforward”. It seems that many businesses filled out how much financial assistance they expected to receive rather than how many employees they though would be eligible.

Japan is set introduce a further US$ 1.1 trillion stimulus package, following a similar package rolled out in April, as it tries to cushion the severe impact Covid-19 has had on the country. US$ 333 billion of the total will be for direct spending, including increased medical funding, student support and subsidies for struggling companies. The Abe government has now spent the equivalent of 40% of Japan’s GDP on fighting the pandemic and, to fund these packages, Japan will issue US$ 310 billion in government bonds. These developments come at a time when the world’s third largest economy is now in technical recession and heading for a major slump.

As widely expected, Argentina failed to meet Friday’s deadline and has defaulted on about US$ 500 million in bond payments. The government’s initial offer of restructuring some US$ 65 million in foreign debt was roundly rejected, whilst the Exchange Bondholder Group, a major group of eighteen investment institutional creditors has confirmed its commitment to counter proposal to provide “significant debt relief to Argentina and beyond doubt provides a sustainable debt structure for Argentina in respect of Exchange Bonds”. This is the country’s ninth sovereign default and an agreement of sorts is expected in days despite an “important distance” left to reach a deal between both parties.

To help their economy to weather the Covid-19 storm, Chinese authorities have announced US$ 430 billion worth of stimulus funding, as the economy contracted 6.8% in Q1. The money will be spent by local governments to help with the survival of private companies, to prevent job losses and to ensure the public’s basic needs are met. More interesting is the fact that the Party failed to set a future growth target, which has been the norm for some time, citing it would be focussing all its efforts on fighting the pandemic. Although it was the first country to come out of the pandemic, having been the first to suffer, it has struggled to get the economy going. It was estimated that 30% of the country’s 442 million workers lost their jobs, at least temporarily during the Chinese lockdown, and that 25 million jobs may have gone for good.

There are concerns of China’s role in possibly not sharing all the relevant details of the initial Covid-19 breakout in Wuhan last December. Now the country has angered world powers again by passing a national security law to crack down on political freedoms in Hong Kong. Donald Trump will again be centre stage and there is no doubt that, just as last year when the US/Sino tariff war disrupted global trade, the global economy will suffer at such a critical time. Any ramp-up of tensions between the two superpowers will have a negative knock-on effect on the global economy at a time when it will be trying to recover from Covid-19.

For the first time since the onset of Covid-19, the US has posted a decline in jobless numbers – a sure indicator that people are starting to return to work. The number of ongoing benefit claims has declined to 22.1 million – a surprise to many who thought that this number would continue to rise. Weekly jobless claims, of 2.1 million were reported, as at 23 May, bringing the total from mid-March to 40.7 million. The beginning of June could see a US unemployment rate of 20%.

Dubbed Next Generation EU, the bloc has finally agreed to a major US$ 825 billion recovery plan, two thirds of which will be in grants and the balance in loans. With this boost, and the initial US$ 600 billion initial rescue package, along with the proposed 2021-2027 US$ 1.2 trillion budget, it hopes that the total of US$ 2.6 trillion is enough money to “throw” at the problem to “kick-start our economy and ensure Europe bounces forward”. Although the two major players, Germany and France, have agreed to raising money on the capital markets, all 27 member states have to agree to the proposal and there are still the so-called “Frugal Four” – Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden – continuing to object to both taking on the debt for the poorer countries and cash handouts to relatively poorer countries, rather than low-interest loans. “Problem” countries include those with high government debt to GDP – Greece (177%), Italy (135%), Portugal (118%), Belgium (98%), France (98%), Spain (96%) and Cyprus (96%). All this money has to be repaid and could take up to thirty years, with the EC considering ways of raising the money including a carbon tax, a digital tax and a tax on non-recycled plastics.

With many outlets still closed, UK retail sales plummeted last month by 18.1%, with clothing sales faring even worse by almost 50%. However, one glimmer of hope was that online shopping accounted for a record 30.7% of total sales, with all items, excluding clothing or household goods, posting record highs. As a direct result of the lockdown, the number of shoppers visiting UK High Streets, retail parks and shopping centres fell by 80%, compared to 41.3% a month earlier. Primark is a good illustration of the economic damage being wreaked on the sector and has posted monthly sales down from an average US$ 780 million to almost zero.

Latest figures indicate that 8.4 million UK workers are now covered by the government’s furlough scheme, (costing US$ 18 billion, so that those affected can receive 80% of their wages up to a maximum US$ 3k), whilst 2.3 million self-employed workers have made claims costing US$ 8.1 billion. These and other costs are expected to total US$ 150 billion, with the annual borrowing bill equating to 15.2% of the country’s GDP.

The UK government is racking up huge amounts of debt, as public borrowing surged to US$ 75 billion in April – a record monthly high, caused by heavy public spending, including the furlough scheme that has been extended to October, to ease the impact of the coronavirus crisis. It is now estimated that the deficit could near US$ 360 billion – this means that the UK government is forecast to spend more, as a result of Covid-19, than it will earn, as tax revenue tanks; for example, April VAT revenue was negative, as collections were less than refunds. This new figure is five times more than was forecast at the time of the March budget – and could be even worse come the end of the fiscal year. As a result of the borrowing, total public sector debt, at the end of last month, rose to US$ 2,266 billion – US$ 142 billion higher than in April 2019 – and equating to about US$ 34k per person in the country. Even with low – and even negative – interest rates, the money has to be repaid. This rate of spending cannot go on ad infinitum and the time will come when the painful decision has to be made to turn the spending tap off. Then when the pandemic abates, both the state and business will be saddled with falling revenue and increasing debt; the amount required to refloat the sinking UK economy will be astronomic, bearing in mind that even before Covid-19, UK businesses were carrying an estimated US$ 125 billion in unsustainable debt.

There is no doubt that history repeats itself – this time it seems that the UK government could imitate a model once undertaken by the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher, some forty years ago. Then her government supported various prominent troubled UK companies by investing state funds, often by way of offering convertible loans or taking an equity share, and then selling their share, more often than not, for a profit. A win win for both stakeholders – the company received much needed backing to carry on business and the government not having to pay out on benefits, whilst still continuing to receive tax receipts. There could be up to US$ 30 billion set aside for the government to assist otherwise stable UK companies, impacted by Covid-19, with a cash boost. Stellar names such as Rolls Royce, Jaguar Land Rover, Virgin Atlantic and British Aerospace could already be in the queue to take advantage of “Project Birch”. It will enable the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to handle bailouts on a case-by-case basis of viable companies, whose failure will “disproportionately harm the economy”.

Thomas Edison must be turning in his grave with news that the company he founded has sold its lighting business, (along with smart home goods), to Savant Systems, for an undisclosed amount. General Electric has been struggling with falling cash flows and sluggish demand. The company was established in 1892, even though Edison had created the first practical commercial incandescent lamp, thirteen years earlier. Lightbulbs had been the centre of its business but GE struggled to keep up with the times, particularly when it came to LED. Since then, GE has been transforming itself into a more focused industrial company primarily on making jet engines and power-generation equipment and lighting became an increasingly small part of its business. Now with the final demise of this part of Boston-based General Electric, it seems The Lights All Went Out In Massachusetts.

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Amanat, AstonMartin, Damac, Dubai tourism, GE, Margaret Thatcher, Next Generation EU, Target, UK economy, UP | Leave a comment

School’s Out Forever?

Posted on May 22, 2020 by howesdubai

School’s Out Forever 21 May 2020

There are an estimated 245k companies in Dubai and now the world press is already writing eulogies for the emirate, based on the results of a survey of just 0.005% of that total. There is no doubt, in line with most of the world, that Dubai has seen – and will continue to see – a downturn. A University of Chicago that estimates that more than 40% of recent pandemic job cuts in the US are likely to be permanent.Although not as daunting as some other countries, the figures are horrendous but it is a fact of life that reality has hit home and positive steps are now in play to soften the impact for the economy and for the people. More companies will close, people will leave and when this phase is over, both the economy and population will be smaller and will take time to return to pre-Covid levels. The economy will not bounce straight back and nobody knows what it will look like but it will be different and being Dubai, it will be smarter, more tech-oriented, forward-looking and a global leader.

Despite external reports, Emirates has yet to make any announcement on its future plans, in relation to aircraft and payroll numbers, currently numbering 269 and 105k respectively. As the global industry starts to come to terms with a new future for air travel, Emirates will undoubtedly be considering their various options, including cost cutting measures and a revamp of its assets. Recently, its Chairman, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, noted that the airline’s top priorities included conserving cash, safeguarding our business, and preserving as much of our skilled workforce as possible.

Today, 21 May 2020, Emirates restarted scheduled passenger flights to only nine selected destinations, with these return flights continuing until the end of June. These flights will include London Heathrow, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, Madrid, Chicago, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne. Depending on circumstances, there could be timetable changes. Any person flying into Dubai will require a Ministry of Foreign Affairs approval letter before entry is allowed, a mandatory DHA test on arrival and a compulsory 14-day quarantine.

A recent update to the Dubai SME guarantee scheme sees it extended to include not only 100% locally owned SMEs, that could apply for funding of up to US$ 213k, but now Dubai-based SMEs that are 50% owned and managed by Emiratis to seek funding up to US$ 114k, backed by a 50% capital guarantee; it also allowed qualified businesses to get a three-month payment holiday. The original aim of the exercise was for the government body, in association with lending platform Beehive, to facilitate funding of up to US$ 213k for locally owned start-ups.It is reported that local banks have already utilised US$ 10.2 billion of the US$ 13.6 billion of the interest free loans, as part of the Central Bank’s efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of Covid-19 on the country. In order to further facilitate the implementation of its Targeted Economic Support Scheme, the central bank has added clarifications on the deferral requests, recently issuing further guidance on how TESS operates to smooth its workings, so that more entities can claim. The options for granting postponements include deferring only the principal of a loan, deferring both interest and principal repayments or deferring interest and profits only.

As gaming is becoming more popular in the region, Riot Games MENA is set to introduce the Intel Arabian Cup which will see teams from thirteen MENA countries fighting it out for the League of Legends. The year-long competition will be split into two seasons of four months each. The first season will see each of the thirteen countries playing local games to find a national champion team, with a US$ 130k prize pool being made available to the top three teams in each country. All 13 leagues will be held and broadcast every weekend on the League of Legends Arabia Twitch channel. The second season will see the thirteen national champions play to be crowned the regional champion. to the KHDA, Dubai schools should reopen in time for the beginning of the academic year in September. The education regulator is still unsure what the reopening will look like and whether the date will change. All Dubai schools have been closed since mid-March and since then most of the students have been receiving e-learning programmes; it will be interesting to see how much impact on-line education has had on the traditional educational status quo.

Late in the week, Etisalat’s CEO, Saleh Al Abdooli, announced his resignation, citing “personal reasons”, after four years in the chair and 28 years with the telco. The board appointed its CEO International, Hatem Dowidar, as Group Acting Chief Executive Officer; a relative newcomer to the country’s biggest telecom operator, starting as COO in 2015, following a five-year tenure as CEO of Vodafone Egypt. Etisalat recently announced Q1 results, with revenue rising 1.0% to US$ 3.6 billion and a 2.0% profit decline to US$ 599 million, driven by forex losses, rising finance costs and higher depreciation.

A former top official at Pacific Controls – allegedly implicated in the loss of US$ 100 million of company funds – has been detained in Dubai, after he returned to divest some of his local properties. It seems that a complaint had been lodged against the former finance manager, Srinivasan Narasimhan, by the current Pacific Controls management that he and his team fraudulently created and operated bank accounts in the company’s name. Located in Jebel Ali,and founded by Dilip Rahulan, who is also under investigation, the company was a pathfinderin sustainability solutions but seemed to have lost its way four years ago when it was bedevilled with heavy bank debt. An audit at the time found that over US$ 100 million was unaccounted for and the company nearly folded. Since then the management has been trying to right the wrongs of the past and this latest development could be a major turning point for its future. Because of the quality of its data centre infrastructure and cloud computing services, it still has an enviable customer base including Dubai Civil Defence, RTA, Dubai Airport, Etisalat, and Mobily.

The principal arm of Dubai’s government, Investment Corporation of Dubai, has posted a credible 16.9% improvement in its 2019 annual profit to US$ 6.8 billion, although revenue dipped 1.9% to US$ 62.1 billion, with a decline in energy revenues and transportation income, offset by higher income in the financial sector; the main contributor being a US$ 1.2 billion gain on the partial disposal of Network International. The conglomerate’s asset base jumped 27.5% to a record US$ 305.2 billion, whilst liabilities were 35.6% up at US$ 237.0 billion.

Deyaar Development has posted a Q1 revenue of US$ 27 million and a profit of below US$ 1 million, after posting impairment charges of U$ 3 million, attributable to the impact of Covid-19. In February, Deyaar handed over Midtown, a six-building project comprising 570 units, the second phase of its Midtown development.

Because of a notable increase in Q1 volume, which boosted revenue, up 13.0% to US$ 24 million, Dubai Financial Market posted a 24% jump in net income to US$ 9 million. The two revenue sources were operating income and investment returns, contributing US$ 13 million and US$ 11 million respectively; operating expenses were 7.4% higher at US$ 15 million. With its main sources of revenue being fees and commissions, the bourse saw its quarterly trading value 19.0% higher at US$ 3.9 billion. DFGM has an 845k investor base, with foreign investors responsible for 51% of trading activity in Q1 as well as holding an 18% market cap. Because of the Covid-19 factor, and the increase in market volatility, the Securities and Commodities Authority lowered the threshold trigger, to stop a company trading for the day, from 10% to 5%.

The bourse opened on Sunday 17 May and, 133 points (7.0%) down over the previous fortnight, reversed its fortunes this week, trading 45 points higher (2.4%) to close on 1,939 by 21 May. Emaar Properties, having shed US$ 0.09 the previous two weeks, was US$ 0.01 higher atUS$ 0.66, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.02 the previous fortnight, was flat at US$ 0.17. Thursday 21 May saw the market trading at 252 million shares, worth US$ 101 million, (compared to 113 million shares, at a value of US$ 41 million, on 14 May).

By Thursday, 21 May, Brent, up US$ 9.05 (40.3%) the previous three weeks, nudged lower by US$ 0.08, to close at US$ 31.44. Gold, up the previous two weeks by US$ 50 (2.9%), was also down US$ 16 (1.0%) on the week to close on Thursday 21 May, at US$ 1,728.

Latest IATA data indicates that MENA carriers could lose more than US$ 30 billion in revenue, as departures tanked by 95%, quarter on quarter. ME carriers account for 80% (US$ 24 billion) of that total, with departures down 88%; the current estimate is US$ 5 billion more than its previous forecast of 02 April. The world body is calling for more government aid to support their airlines, in the way some have already initiated economic packages for SMEs and other businesses. It has concerns that with carriers facing major liquidity problems, with plans to slash payroll numbers and costs, government aid may come too late to save the estimated 1.2 million job losses in aviation and related industries.

Air Canada is the latest global airline to announce massive redundancies, as it cuts its workforce by 60%. The company is trying to save cash, as well as downsizing to adhere to what many believe will be the aviation sector’s position in the mid-term. To help the cash flow, it may mean flight staff going on a two-year sabbatical, with staff privileges, or reducing working hours. Like other global airlines, Air Canada is facing a short-term future where air travel has come to a standstill and most airlines facing inevitable bankruptcy, without state aid.

It is reported that Rolls Royce is planning to cut 9k, equivalent to 17% of its workforce, saving US$ 840 million, from its payroll, as it tries to slash total annual costs by US$ 1.6 billion, in the Covid-19 era; the current slump, that has seen air travel sink by up to 90%, has resulted in its maintenance revenue stream drying up and global airlines abandoning aircraft sales orders. Unfortunately, thecompany was a leading player in the larger aircraft and now as the travel sector will focus on the smaller, one-aisle planes in the future, it will be badly hit. Its production target has already fallen 44.4% to 250 plane engines.

Further to recent liquidations of a number of Australian retail chains, (even before Covid-19), Dutch brand G-Star Raw, with 57 national outlets, has entered voluntary administration. It is but one of many retailers that had already faced a difficult start to 2020, with chains including Bardot, Jeanswest and Harris Scarfe all closing. Like others, G-Star Raw’s main creditors are commercial landlords and if this were the problem prior to the pandemic, it is going to be a bigger problem coming out of lockdown, as customers have reduced discretionary spending due to growing uncertainty about job security and income. Add in the fact that some retailers saw revenue fall up to 80% during lockdown, and these losses have to be recovered from future profits, then it seems that landlords will have to consider easing rents..

Meanwhile in US, JC Penney, with 850 national outlets, has filed for bankruptcy, after 118 years of trading, but will be allowed to restructure, even though it is not in a position to pay its debts. In its latest statement, the company confirmed that it had a cash balance of US$ 500 million and access to a further US$ 900 million from lenders. The retailer, with an 80k payroll, has seen sales fall 39.5% over the past decade to US$ 10.7 billion and has closed hundreds of shops.

In the UK, Clarks is taking steps to still be a viable business, post Covid-19, and has already announced a 7% cut in its 13k global payroll and plans to close some of its worst-performing stores. Currently, all of its UK and Irish stores remain closed because of the lockdown but some of its international outlets, including in China, have reopened. Even before the crisis, the 195-year company had posted a US$ 102 million loss as it sold 20 million pairs of shoes – 9.1% down on the previous year. Much of the production was moved to China in 2007, as it closed its Millom UK factory and last year it closed its only UK facility, which had only been operating for two years, when it failed to make set targets for making desert boots.

Despite no longer selling its talc-based Johnson’s Baby Powder in North America, Johnson & Johnson says it will continue to sell the product elsewhere in the world. The reason behind this move is that sales have shrunk there mainly because of adverse publicity arising from numerous court cases that has seen the company being ordered to pay out billions of dollars in compensation because of many claims, involving over 20k, that it causes cancer; to date, all its appeals have been successful. (Talc is mined and can be found in seams close to that of asbestos). Currently, Johnson & Johnson is appealing against a 2018 court order that awarded damages of US$ 4.7 billion to 22 women who alleged that its talc products caused them to develop ovarian cancer.

Tesla’s Autopilot became 14.3% more expensive this week to retail at US$ 8k, with Elon Musk commenting that with improving technology, the price will continue to rise in the future; but in true Musk-style, he added that the technology it is adding will be worth more than $100k. Although not fully autonomous, it will add features such as automatic lane changes, parallel parking and a summon feature, which automatically parks and retrieves the car. With these new additions, the Tesla Model 3 will cost US$ 41.7k, as the base model retails for US$ 33.7k.

Following a massive dent in revenue (and profit), attributable to Covid-19, Fiat is in discussions with the Italian government about a possible US$ 6.8 billion state-back finance package; this would be the biggest European government-backed financing, eclipsing the US$ 5.5 billion sourced by Renault last month. In Q1, the Anglo-Italian carmaker lost US$ 5.5 billion as new car sales slowed markedly but still managed to raise US$ 11 billion additional financing. The three-year credit facility would be “dedicated exclusively to financing FCA’s activities in Italy” and supporting about 10k national supply chain enterprises. Italy’s trade-credit insurer Sace SpA, Italy’s will provide a public 80% guarantee.

Having slashed 3k jobs earlier in the month, Uber Technologies will cut a further 3k jobs, as coronavirus-led restrictions have resulted in business being 80% lower. Over 65% of the business is generated in North America, where many locations had been in lockdown since mid-March. In other moves to reduce its costs, the ride-hailing firm has closed down 45 offices, as well as plans to move its regional Singapore hub to another yet unknown Asian city; it will also reduce investments in several non-core projects and is in discussions with GrubHub Inc to reinforce its food delivery business.

Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp posted a surprising US$ 14.0 billion loss, attributed to a US$ 18.0 billion deficit with its Saudi-backed Vision Fund, including almost US$ 10 billion on two of its high-profile investments – Uber and office-sharing firm WeWork. The US$ 100 billion fund, had already made two quarters of losses of which US$ 75 billion had been invested in 88 start-ups, now valued at US$ 69.6 billion and still heading south. Its founder, Masayoshi Son, has announced that the company will spend almost US$ 1.2 billion for a share buyback, using its stake in Alibaba. Coincidentally, as well as reducing its stake in the Chinese tech company, it has also seen the departure of its co-founder, Jack Ma, from its board.

In the US, delivery app DoorDash is evidently backed by SoftBank and if the following was a typical example, it might point to why the Japanese investment giant is in trouble. Last year, the owner of a pizza restaurant discovered that the delivery app, unbeknown to him, had his details on their app and was selling his premier pizza US$ 8 cheaper than his US$ 24 retail price. As he had been receiving complaints about deliveries, even though his outlets did not deliver, he decided to order ten pizzas for a friend; he paid DoorDash US$ 160 and received US$ 240 from the app. It appears that this was a “demand test” by the app whereby they have a test period where they scrape the restaurant’s website, not charging any fees, so they can then contact the restaurant with positive order data so as to convince them to sign up.

According to AdColony, ME mobile game downloads jumped 28% in March, just as many countries started imposing lockdown regulations; daily time spent on mobile gaming per user rose 24% month on month. A December report from Newzoo forecast that the ME industry would show a 25% annual growth over the next two years to US$ 4.4 billion – bound to be on the low side because of its increased usage since the Covid-19 onset. Also, the launch of Playstation 5 console and Microsoft’s Xbox X later in the year will also give a further boost to the gaming sector and maintain it as the most profitable form of global entertainment. By the end of 2022, the worldwide market is expected to generate US$ 187.8 billion, of which US$ 159.3 billion will be spent by an estimated 2.7 billion gamers.

China surprised Australian officials by imposing an 80% tariff on the country’s barley, which currently earns about US$ 1 billion a year and now sees the close of a lucrative expanding market. It seems that Australia will not take retaliatory action, but it did follow Chinese claims of local subsidies and that the sales prices were below the cost of production. It may onlybe a coincidence, but the introduction of tariffs came just after Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.

Now there are fears that China is tightening the screws further, after new rules, regarding the inspection of Australian iron ore, have been introduced; they change the current method of inspecting such imports, from batch by batch, to inspecting on the request of the trader or importer. Although it is claimed that the new process would “streamline” inspections at Chinese ports, some see it as another warning to Australia not to meddle in Chinese internal affairs.

On Sunday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve noted that the US economy could “easily” contract by 20% – 30% and that the economic downturn might last a further eighteen months. However, Jerome Powell reiterated that the economy would recover, as he called on the country’s legislators to pass more economic stimulus and extra relief packages; to date they have already approved nearly US$ 3 trillion in spending, equivalent to 14% of the country’s economy. In a more positive note, the Fed Chair was confident that, since the financial system was healthy, the US could avoid a depression as long as there was not “a second wave of the coronavirus”.

The ongoing labour crisis in the US continues unabated with more than 2.4 million applying for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the total to 38.6 million since the crisis started in mid-March; this figure already equates to all of the initial claims filed during the Great Recession. The latest figures, based on the number currently receiving unemployment insurance, points to an unemployment rate of 17.2%. The figures are even worse when those in the gig economy, who are not included on the current labour data, as they are self-employed, are considered. This week’s claims, via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, totalled 2.2 million and continuing claims under the program were at 6.1 million at the beginning of the month. What is really worrying is the forecast from the University of Chicago that estimates that more than 40% of recent pandemic job cuts are likely to be permanent.

The IMF is soon likely to downgrade its most recent forecast for the global economy to a 3.0% contraction this year and only a partial recovery in 2021, not the 5.8% rebound initially expected. The recent data is a lot more serious than first thought and “that means it will take us much longer to have a full recovery from this crisis,” according to its Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva. This comes a week after the Asian Development Bank warned the global economy could face economic damage of up to US$ 8.8 trillion – and even this could be on the low side.

Meanwhile three of the global economic powerhouses are looking straight down the barrel of a gun. The US posted its worst quarterly figures since the Great Depression, down 4.8% in Q1, with anything up to negative 15% expected in the current period. China fared even worse in Q1, mainly because it was impacted by Covid-19 a lot earlier, 6.8% down and probably marginally worse in Q2. Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, actually fell into recession in Q1, with expectations that the current quarter could contract by up to 22.0%.

In Q1, Japan’s economy contracted 3.4%, despite the fact that the country is not going into full lockdown, although it did issue an April state of emergency which has had a dire impact on its supply chains and businesses. Because in Q4, it registered an even bigger fall of 6.4%, driven by an October sales tax hike from 8% to 10%, the country is in technical recession (based on posting two successive quarterly declines). The outlook is even worse despite the government pumping in US$ 1 trillion, the central bank expanding its stimulus measures and the lifting of the state of emergency in 39 out of its 47 prefectures. Some analysts forecast that the world’s third largest economy could tank again in Q2, declining by as much as 22%.

After the feast, came the famine in Australia; following record 8.5% hike in March, driven by panic buying at the lockdown onset, retail sales slumped 17.9% in April – the steepest monthly fall on record; sales of non-perishables came in 23.7% lower (after a massive 39% uptick in March). However, it seems that the “loss” in retail sales could have been offset by a similar hike in on-line revenue. This could continue into this month as a raft of factors are working against any improvement, including higher household debt, declining house prices, slumping wage growth and rising job insecurity driving consumer confidence downwards. Meanwhile, April turnover in cafes, restaurants, clothing and footwear retailers was 50% lower, year on year.

In a desperate bid to tighten the EU – and also help in its recovery cycle from Covid-19 – Germany and France have agreed to support a US$ 500 billion aid package, with Angela Merkel confirming her agreement that bonds issued by the EC would be repaid from the EU budget, with her country being its main provider of funds. However, it still has to be ratified by all 27 states and it is likely to face opposition from the likes of Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, which are against increasing aid to the areas worst hit by the pandemic. This new proposal will see money distributed through grants whereas the “Frugal Four” would prefer utilising loans. The German change of heart is probably the last roll of the dice by the Germans to keep the bloc in situ.

Rishi Sunak has warned the UK public that Itis “not obvious there will be an immediate bounce back” for the economy, once the pandemic abates. The Chancellor has reiterated that although some countries were beginning to ease containment restrictions, it would take time to see a full recovery to some sort of normalcy. In April, the UK had 2.1 million claiming unemployment benefits – 69.3% higher month on month. Nobody knows how long the process will take – what is certain is that the longer the recession lasts the more damaging the economic scarring will be.

The World Economic Forum foresees a possible increase in economic distress and social discontent if there is a prolonged recession and no global governmental action is taken. There seems no doubt that the number of bankruptcies will skyrocket, as millions of companies fail mainly driven by lack of liquidity. The knock-on effect will see households struggling and could well result in major bouts of social discontent. Furthermore, government debt levels will jump to almost 100% of GDP, as trillions of dollars have been “thrown” at efforts to mitigate the negative impact of Covid-19, leaving a massive build-up of public debt that has to be repaid. There is a chance that xenophobia may have its day in the sun especially when international travel is severely curtailed and supply chains are still being restructured. The study puts the Covid-19 economic loss at US$ 26.8 trillion, and especially when international travel is severely curtailed and that global GDP will shrink by 5.3%.

Education will be a big Covid-19 loser, as many of its revenue streams have been drastically cut because of the pandemic. There is no doubt that the number of fee-paying students – and especially overseas student registrations – will slump, with a knock-on effect on accommodation charges. Add to these, there will be less conferences and perhaps the value of endowments from wealthy alumni will decline. Probably the biggest revenue driver for say UK, US and Australian universities are the fees received from overseas students. In the UK, standard “domestic” fees of US$ 12k are dwarfed by fees of up to US$ 70k for those from outside the UK and the EU. Now with such undergraduates being sent home and many courses going on-line, it will be harder to charge such a high premium in the future. It is estimated that overseas students in US and Australian universities add US$ 45 billion and US$ 20 billion to their respective economies every year – and that does not include the indirect benefits generated for the local economies around university locations. Not many are hoping that School’s Out Forever?

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Australian economy, Brent, Covi-19, Dubai, Emirates, Gold, IMF, KHDA | Leave a comment

Stuck With U!

Posted on May 15, 2020 by howesdubai

Stuck With U 15 May 2020

An unnamed errant Dubai real estate agency was fined US$ 13k by RERA for violating laws relating to their escrow account and permits of real estate advertisements. The fine covered a number of violations, including receiving amounts outside the escrow account and launching a promotional campaign, without obtaining the necessary permits. It was warned that if the agency committed any other infringement, it will face a licence suspension, office closure, and criminal prosecution. The legislator has introduced these regulations to protect potential customers and safeguard the interests of all stakeholders.

ASGC, with an annual turnover in excess of US$ 1 billion and an 18k payroll, have spent US$ 31 million for a 15% stake in Costain, as it tries to expand its international presence; this formed part of the UK contractor’s US$ 124 million cash raising share issue. The Dubai-based company is confident that Costain is well placed to take advantage of an expected increase in UK public spend, including billions in healthcare infrastructure, roads, railways and housing, as part of the Johnson’s government’s promise to spend over US$ 700 billion in capex over the next five years.

The UAE has set out its strategy to deal with Covid-19 in a two-prong attack. The short-term, already under way, involves the gradual reopening of the economy and has already seen US$ 80.0 billion pumped into the economy, with the aim of getting money into those sectors, including SMEs, in most need. In the longer term, and in a much-changed economic environment, the government is looking at the value of investment in “sectors of high potential”, including digital, renewables and food security. This paradigm shift will put the local economy more in line with the more mature global economies, with a marked emphasis on the digital sector, which will include 5G, IoT, AI, blockchain, robotics biotechnology, 3D printing etc, and marks a move away from what the UAE was like prior to Covid-19. In some ways, this pandemic can be seen as a vehicle that has pushed the economy in a way in which it was heading but at a much greater speed.

After Ramadan, it has been announced that the emirate’s malls will return to normal working hours (12 hours a day and 14 at the weekend). Nevertheless, the current social distancing rules will remain, and malls can only utilise 30% capacity; only those aged between 13 and 59 will be allowed to enter. At the same time, wholesalers and retailers will again be able to offer promotions.

In a bid to expand its global presence, Emerging Markets Property Group, has bought out Lamudi Global’s operations in the Philippines, Indonesia and Mexico; no financial details were made available. This acquisition will give the Dubai-based parent company of property portal Bayut a marketplace of almost 500 million, with a commission potential of US$ 2.3 billion on the back of annual sales transactions totalling US$ 55.1 billion. Last year, the company acquired Lamudi’s Middle East and Pakistan businesses and three months ago bought Thailand’s property portal Kaidee. In April, EMPG, which also owns Dubizzle in the UAE and several other on-line marketplaces, sourced a further US$ 150 million in funding, valuing the company at US$ 1 billion.

Emirates Group, comprising Emirates (the airline) and dnata, posted their 32^nd consecutive profit – at US$ 456 million – for the year ending 31 March 2020 on the back of lower revenue of US$ 28.3 billion; at the end of the year, it had a cash balance topping US$ 7.0 billion. Although Emirates revenue dipped 6.0% to US$ 25.1 billion, (attributable to a planned 45-day runway closure earlier in the financial year and latterly, in Q4, to the impact of Covid-19), its annual profit was 21.0% higher at US$ 288 million. Passenger numbers fell 8.0% to 58.6 billion ATKMs in 2019 because of the 45-day runway closure last May and the recent advent of Covid-19. Fleet numbers were flat at 280 aircraft, following the addition of six A380s and the retirement of four Boeing 777-300ERs, its last 777-300 and a 777 freighter. There will be no dividend this year, compared to the US$ 500 million declared to the shareholder, International Corp of Dubai, last year.

As global trade softened – not helped by the US-Sino tariff war and the onset of Covid-19 in Q4 – so did Emirates cargo division’s revenue – down 14.0% to US$ 3.1 billion, with tonnage declining 10.0% to 2.4 million tonnes, as one plane was retired leaving the fleet standing at eleven Boeing 777F freighters.

Boosted by a US$ 59 million gain from the sale of its shareholding in Accelya, an IT company, dnata showed a US$ 168 million profit on the back of a 2.0% rise in revenue to US$ 4.0 billion, driven by international business accounting for 72% of the total. There were major impact costs that slowed profit growth including Covid-19 (US$ 75 million), goodwill impairments of US$ 45 million and the failure of Thomas Cook (US$ 26 million).

Following the shenanigans at Abraaj and NMC, which left several local banks with sizeable impairments for bad loans, it is reported that the liquidation of Phoenix Group could result in further local losses. The company, one of the largest global rice trading firms worldwide, is estimated to owe financial institutions US$ 1.6 billion, of which local banks have up to US$ 400 million exposures; this is a lot less than the estimated US$ 6 billion plus they had with NMC. By the end of the week, local banks had confirmed exposure in the region of nearly US$ 140 million, but as others have yet to do so, this will inevitably rise. To date, FAB is the largest “casualty” having declared a figure of US$ 73 million outstanding. It appears that the group’s problems emanate from its Dubai subsidiary, with one of its commodity traders exceeding his authority and undertaking some extremely risk currency hedging deals, in a vain attempt to recover losses incurred earlier in the year. The situation was further exacerbated by the onset of Covid-19 which could be the final nail in the coffin of a very successful company which posted a 2019 gross profit of US$ 152 million, on the back of a US$ 3 billion plus turnover.

The bourse opened on Sunday 10 May and, 104 points (5.1%) down over the previous week, nudged a further 29 points lower (1.5%) to close on 1,894 by 14 May. Emaar Properties, having shed US$ 0.07 the previous week, was US$ 0.02 lower atUS$ 0.65, whilst Arabtec, down US$ 0.01 the previous week, fell US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.17. Thursday 14 May saw the market trading at 113 million shares, worth US$ 41 million, (compared to 182 million shares, at a value of US$ 51 million, on 07 May).

By Thursday, 14 May, Brent, up US$ 7.31 (32.5%) the previous fortnight, continued moving north, US$ 1.74 (5.8%) higher, to close at US$ 31.52. Gold, up the previous week by US$ 36 (2.1%), nudged US$ 14 higher (0.8%) on the week to close on Thursday 14 May, at US$ 1,744.

With the auto sector sinking by the day, Nissan has unveiled a three-year plan to take the drastic action of cutting US$ 2.8 billion in annual costs, as well as booking restructuring charges, the total of which has yet to be ascertained. The plan will also include phasing out the Datsun brand, slashing marketing and research budgets and shutting down one production line. The Yokohama- based company has still not come to terms with having to rejuvenate an ageing vehicle line-up and a management still recovering from the arrest of former Chairman Carlos Ghosn. It is expected that Nissan will declare a loss when it publishes its annual results next week, as well as posting a 12.0% fall in revenue to US$ 95.3 billion.

In order to ease financial pressure on his other investments, including Virgin Atlantic, it is reported that Richard Branson is selling a stake in Virgin Galactic. The US$ 500 million raised will be usedsupport its “leisure, holiday and travel businesses” hit by “the unprecedented impact” of Covid-19.

It seems that Airbus will follow Boeing’s lead from last week and start preparing its workforce for staff cuts of up to 10% of its 134k payroll, as the fall in demand leads to lower production numbers; figures indicate that aircraft deliveries have nosedived by 35% since the onset of Covid-19. Even before the pandemic, it was evident that there was a shift away from the wide body plane option, so this sector would bear the brunt of cuts, as compared to the helicopters and defence divisions. After a decade of impressive growth, the wheels have fallen off as the pandemic has decimated air travel and put most of the global carriers in dire financial distress. Measures have already been taken such as slowing the ramp up of the A220 single aisle plane, postponing a new A321 assembly line and cancelling the tie up with RR for hybrid-electric powered aircraft.

Following a US$ 8.5 billion 2019 deficit, Uber has posted a Q1 US$ 2.9 billion loss, as its overseas sectors started to get battered by Covid-19, with its global core business, ride hailing, down by more than 80%. It has also sold its loss-making bike and scooter business, Jump, to Lime. On a positive note, Uber Eats has seen a surge in business, posting a 53% hike in revenue, and there have been early signs of markets picking up, as lockdowns start to ease in many countries. The loss was exacerbated by the fact that the value of its investments in Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi, Singapore-based Grab and others plummeted by US$ 2.1 billion, as demand collapsed in those regions.

As a bellwether for the German economy, Siemens Q2 (ending 31 March) 21.0% fall in profit to US$ 634 million reflects the perilous state of the country’s economy going forward. Because of the nature of Covid-19 – and the unknown factor of when the economy will return to some form of normalcy – the Munich-based conglomerate has abandoned its full-year earnings forecast. Although it managed to keep its factories operating, its revenue was badly dented because of the lockdown affecting some of its customer base. With industrial production declining 9.2% in March, with worse to come in April as Covid-19 tightened its grip, the company is seeking a new credit line of US$ 3.3 billion to help tide it through these trouble times. The problem facing Siemens, and probably most other global entities, is that nobody knows when the pandemic will end, and Europe’s powerhouse economy will not be immune from the fallout.

The Australian investment bank, Macquarie, has posted its first annual loss in seven years, with net income dipping 8.0% to US$ 1.8 billion for the year ending 31 March, attributable to an almost doubling of impairments to US$ 667 million and Covid-19 towards the end of their year. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, the bank did not post their usual earnings outlook, because it was “unable to provide any meaningful” guidance for this year.

Australia, like most developed countries, is facing major economic problems, with current forecasts pointing to a post Covid-19 US$ 235 billion hole in the Federal Budget and unemployment taking four years to return to below 5.0%; annual deficits over the next four financial years are expected to reach US$ 93 billion (by June 2020), US$ 86 billion, US$ 34 billion and US$ 22 billion by June 2023. The economy will be suffering a “hangover from the traumas of the moment” for years to come that will result in the national income falling US$ 22 billion below the official projections in December’s mid-year budget update, 2019-20 and by US$ 130 billion in the following year, ending June 2021.

The government coffers will be badly hit as reduced personal income tax and company tax receipts result in much lower than expected federal revenues. With interest rates almost at zero, and inflation heading south, the RBA is fast running out of monetary policies to get the post Covid-19 economy up and running. One way that could be considered is to introduce long awaited and badly needed tax reform that could see GST receipts heading north, (maybe doubling or expanding the base by adding more “exempt” items to the tax list), with stamp duty heading in the other direction, and perhaps to the tax history books. It is reported that parliament has already approved US$ 200 billion of tax cuts. As consumer spending is of such importance to any economy, it makes sense for the government to ensure that more money is in the hands of the general public. This will get the money cycle moving quicker than say government pumping money into major infrastructure projects and will result in businesses – and the economy – returning to some sort of normalcy a lot quicker.

To bolster falling public revenues as a result of the pandemic (and slumping energy prices), the Saudi Government has decided to triple its VAT rate to 15% from July, discontinue COLA (Cost of Living Allowance), cancel or postpone capex for some public agencies and reduce provisions for a number of initiatives from its Vision 2030. It is expected that these measures will save US$ 27 billion as the Kingdom tries to ameliorate the double whammy of a fall in public revenue and a necessary increase in public spending. More cuts are expected within thirty days when the results of a ministerial committee study into the financial benefits paid to all stakeholders, not subject to Civil Service Law in government ministries, institutions, authorities, centres and programmes, are published.

With its President opposing any lockdown and claiming that the fallout from social-distancing measures could be worse than the actual pandemic, it is no surprise that Brazil is on the verge of collapse. Despite Jair Bolsonaro’s protestations, statistics show that Covid-19 has worsened in the country, which has registered 132k confirmed cases and 9.1k deaths. Now Economy Minister Paulo Guedes has warned there is a possibility that production may seize up, state emergency subsidies for the poor will dry up, and there will be a lack of food in the shops by the end of May. The President is keen to take early steps to bring the economy out of “intensive care”, despite some municipal governments defying the official advice of full lockdowns. There is no doubt that the economy is buckling under the pressure with the rial trading at record lows.

Following Brazil’s economic malaise worsening, Argentina joins its neighbour with news that it has extended a deadline, by ten days, to restructure a US$ 65 billion debt package, requesting private bondholders to markedly reduce the agreed interest rates and to defer payments to 2023. With most creditors rejecting this offer, the government finds itself in a dilemma – it patently cannot afford to repay the debt on the agreed terms and if it does not it will find it very difficult to source future funding, particularly with its dismal track record. The relatively new Alberto Fernández government has not been helped by a fall in the peso, (making any debt repayment in US$ more expensive), and the country’s exports not generating enough foreign currency to repay the massive debt. By the end of last year, public debt, at US$ 323 billion, was equivalent to 88% of GDP. If the US$ 500 million interest payment is not made on 22 May, the country will once again go into default and will then face even more pressing economic and political troubles.

The latest estimate by Lloyd’s of London is that Covid-19 claims could already be as high as US$ 4.3 billion – slightly less than the 9/11 US$ 4.7 billion payout and the 2017 hurricanes’ US$ 4.8 billion. However, if this pandemic goes into Q3, claims could be double these figures. Not surprisingly to any observer is the fact that some insurers – as is their want – are refusing to settle many would-be claimants finding the virus is not covered by their policies, although Lloyd’s chief executive John Neal confirmed that it was paying out on “a very wide range of policies” to support business and people affected by the pandemic. However, some insurers are not paying out on business interruption claims resulting from Covid-19. Up to 30% of total claims are expected to arise because of the cancellation or postponement of major global events.

To help mitigate some of the impact of Covid-19, and get the country on the go again, India is planning to introduce a US$ 265 billion package, equating to 10% of the country’s GDP. In April, it was estimated that 122 million Indians had lost their jobs, as a significant economic package was implemented to help Asia’s third largest economy recover from weeks of lockdown that have been in place since mid-March. Apart from the monetary aspect of Modi’s package, the government also included tax breaks for new plants and incentives for overseas companies. The Prime Minister has been criticised that the package is not big enough and that his dilatory behaviour has resulted in millions of migrant workers being stuck in the cities and unable to return to their villages.

The UK Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has extended the scheme to pay 80% of wages (up to US$ 3k) of workers on leave because of coronavirus for the next four months; however, he did add that from August companies will be asked to “start sharing” the cost of the scheme. It is estimated the government is “subsidising” 7.5 million people, from 935k businesses – or 25% of the country’s workforce – costing US$ 16.8 billion a month that could top US$ 120 billion by October.

With a further three million Americans claiming unemployment over the past week, the number of new jobless claims has climbed to 36 million since mid-March – equivalent to almost 25% of the total workforce; unfortunately, the minority and low-income households continue to bear the brunt of the job losses. Covid-19 is still causing havoc, as shutdowns weigh heavy on the US economy, but some analysts believe that this could be the bottom of the cycle, as an increasing number of states start to ease lockdowns and hiring will start to pick up.

The US has already approved nearly $3tn (£2.5tn) in new spending packages, worth an estimated 14% of the country’s economy. The Fed has also taken radical steps to shore up the economy, pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, has reiterated that the recovery is going to be slow and would be even if slower if government funding is not forthcoming, as well as unemployment levels remaining at elevated levels, compared to the 50-year lows seen just three months ago in February. The Fed has also pumped in billions of dollars but more money may have to be injected into the economy but there has to be a limit, as the country’s public debts nears a record US$ 26 trillion.

In 1989, David Gower, the then captain of England, was struggling with his form, whilst the team were being battered by the Australians. The opening pair, Mark Taylor and Geoff Marsh, were nearing a 300 partnership on the first day at Trent Bridge when a tired and disgruntled Gower called on the 12th man and started pointing to the press box. Evidently, he was asking him to go up to see the reporters and ask them what they would do with the field position and the bowling – he wanted to know there and then and not read in tomorrow’s papers what he should have done.

Likewise, 99.99% of analysts, and economists did not see this disaster coming and will only be able to advise what went wrong when this crisis is over. Not many have any idea how this pandemic will unfurl but these experts may do worse than pick a Scrabble letter and use that to solve the problem. Most letters could be used but L, U, V and W would be beneficial. Whatever happens, without positive – and the right – steps taken by governments and central banks, this recession could turn into a major depression. An example of an L-shaped recession was the bursting of Japan’s speculative bubble in 1990 and the country has never returned to its previous 5% levels. This is a possible outcome that should be considered. Then there is the U-shaped curve, when the economy collapses and remains in the doldrums for some time; return to work might take more time than expected, with many companies going into liquidation, whilst those that do survive taking maybe years to recover. For example, following the 1973 oil crisis, economies only started recovering two years later.

Then there is a chance of a V-shaped recovery, with the dramatic fall matched by an almost similar recovery path; this looks highly unlikely, as economic activity cannot fully return until containment is lifted, by which time the economic damage has already seen liquidations and most other businesses struggling. The W-curve would involve an initial rebound before declining – a possibility if the “second wave” occurs. When there is a further recovery, it might not be as high as the earlier rebound and could easily turn into more of an L-shaped curve. A recent example is the Russian experience which saw a massive recovery in 2010, followed by another decline and then a slight improvement in the economy. Although many other letters can be used, maybe we will be Stuck with U.

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Airbus, Australian economy, Brazil, Covid-19, Dubai economy, Emirates, India, Scrabble | Leave a comment

Time To Move On!

Posted on May 8, 2020 by howesdubai

Time To Move On! 07 May 2020

Despite the April lockdown, there were still over 1.8k Dubai property sales transactions, valued at almost US$ 1.0 billion, bringing the YTD total to 12.3k, worth US$ 6.6 billion. According to Property Finder, the secondary market accounted for just 30% of total transactions, with Dubai Marina and Palm Jumeirah the top-selling locations. The majority of sales were in the off-plan sector, dominated by the communities of Villanova for villas and Dubai Creek Harbour for apartments. An interesting fact was that since the problems from Covid-19 worsened, the percentage of searches on the company’s app was skewed in favour of villas rather than apartments. Maybe that with the lockdown, apartment dwellers missed having gardens.

According to Valustrat, and no surprise to anyone, Dubai Q1 property rentals and sale prices continued their declines and could get worse in Q2, as the impact from Covid-19 gains traction; it is estimated that rents for villas and apartments declined by 8.0% and 9.4% over the quarter. Although off plan sales grew 18.2%, year on year, the Q1 return was 26.3% lower, compared to Q4 2019, as developers had already cut back on new projects because of the sector’s oversupply. On an annual basis, cash sales of ready homes climbed 30.4% – but were flat, quarter on quarter. The pandemic took its toll in April, with marked monthly falls in cash sales transactions, ready home sales and off plan sales of 50%, 74% and 32%. With business confidence falling, and many people worried about their economic future, the outlook is that prices will continue to move downwards, more so with salary reductions and job losses becoming more prevalent.

Severe measures have been taken by Nakheel to combat the effects of Covid-19 and its drag on cash reserves. As from 01 April, top management will be paid 50% less than before, with more junior staff having their salaries cut by 30% – 40%. Those earning less than US$ 1.1k (AED 4k) will continue to be paid at previous rates. Such drastic action was required to secure the continuity of the business by preserving cash reserves. It was also reported that Chief Executive Sanjay Manchanda had left the company on 01 March to pursue new opportunities. The developer, that had to close most of outlets in its shopping centres during the lockdown, was badly hit by the 2009 GFC and it is hoped that it is in better shape this time to weather an even bigger economic storm.

As part of the government’s initiative to assist SMEs and small investors, tenants at Dubai Healthcare City will be on the receiving end of “conditional” rent waivers for up to three months, along with deferred rental payments; furthermore, they will also see certain fees either reduced or waived during this difficult period. Those companies, including hospitals, education providers, retail stores, hotels etc, that have had to “close or significantly reduce operations to comply with national precautionary and preventive measures, resulting in reduced revenues and customer footfall”, will be eligible to claim.

Latest figures from the Central Bank reports that the country’s GDP grew by 1.7% in 2019, with the UAE hydrocarbon sector 3.4% higher, whilst non-oil activities had a softer 1.0% growth. Not surprisingly, the agency expects that Covid-19 will have a negative impact on 2020’s figures but notes that it is still too early to estimate the scale of how big this will be. The inflation level has been pushed into negative territory, driven by the uptick in the value of the greenback (and hence the value of the dirham heading north), sinking energy prices and almost double-digit reductions in residential rents.

It is reported that local banks have drawn down 75% of the US$ 13.6 billion liquidity facility arranged by the Central Bank to support individuals, small and SMEs and private companies impacted by COVID-19. Twenty-four of the country’s banks have now joined the scheme, with an increasing number of customers signing up for the Targeted Economic Support Scheme. The TESS liquidity facility will run until the end of the year by which banks will postpone interest payments and/or principal loans of customers over the time period agreed.

Dubai’s Q1 external trade topped US$ 88.0 billion, with imports accounting for US$ 51.5 billion, (58.5% of the total); reexports and exports were at US$ 25.1 billion and US$ 11.7 billion, accounting for 13.3% and 28.5% respectively. The figures were quite impressive considering that trade was disrupted because of the pandemic. Further segregation of the figures sees direct trade accounting for 58.2% of the total (US$ 51.2 billion), followed by free zones (41.2% – US$ 36.2 billion) and customs warehouse trade (0.6% – US$ 600k). Most of the trade was carried by air, followed by sea and land with totals of US$ 44.4 billion, US$ 31.6 billion and US$ 1.1 billion respectively. Dubai’s three most important trading partners remain China, India and the USA contributing US$ 9.8 billion, US$ 8.3 billion and US$ 5.3 billion to the total. Gold/jewellery/diamonds was again the top traded commodity, valued at US$ 25.1 billion, followed by phones (US$ 10.0 billion) and petroleum oils – US$ 4.4 billion.

Whilst agreeing that life protection is of prime importance, Khalaf Al Habtoor reckons that the country must return to work as soon as possible and “can’t wait for a vaccine until the end of the year.” Noting that his companies, like many others, are “bleeding”, he commented that the biggest risk is that of unemployment. To date, his companies, including seven hotels, car dealerships, schools and property, have yet to retrench but staff have taken unpaid or holiday leave. If Covid-19 does not abate, then he would have “no choice but to cut” positions. It seems that the longer the pandemic goes on, the economy will continue to deteriorate and will take longer to recover once normality returns.

Uber Eats will now merge into using Careem’s food delivery services, as it has decided to close the Uber Eats app in the country. The company, founded in 2017, believes that the change is in their best interest, not only as a cost-cutting measure but also as Careem’s food delivery operations are “better placed to serve our food delivery communities as it expands its app across the region.” Careem Now was first rolled out last October and has quickly become a leading player in the region’s food delivery sector. Uber Eats has also closed down in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, so now the parent company can once again focus on its core ride-hailing business.

As Careem has seen post Covid-19 business tank by up to 90% for its main revenue stream, ride hailing, and delivery down 60%, it has taken the inevitable decision to cut its workforce by 536 (31% of the total payroll). The Dubai-based firm, which operates in the MENA and Pakistan, and has seen losses mount up, with overall business 80% lower, has also temporarily shelved its mass transport ‘Careem BUS’ venture.

Despite the ongoing Covid-19 generated problems, yallacompare has raised over US$ 4 million in its fourth round of funding that sees Kuwait insurer Gulf Insurance Group become a 9.6% shareholder in the insurance aggregator; the four-year old company had already raised nearly US$ 12 million from the three previous funding rounds. Gig has a presence in its home country, as well as Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan. The money raised will be utilised to expand yallacompare’s regional presence.

After the shock of being terminated because of the impact of Covid-19, many are now worrying whether they will receive their full dues, as companies struggle with lack of funds to meet their staff obligations. It seems past norms, that gratuity payments are settled around termination date, will be thrown out of the window. There will be cases when the company has no funds to pay out end of service benefits and if no agreement can be arranged between the parties, the only recourse seems to be notifying the Ministry of Human Resources & Emiratisation or Dubai courts. That will probably take some time and money. So companies are in a quandary – do they not terminate employees now and put them on salary cuts and holiday leave and hope for the best in the future. The only problem is that if that future is some time away, the money spent on keeping staff on the payroll will result in the cash drying up completely, with even less in the kitty to pay final settlements.

Although its Q1 revenue only dipped 3.0% to US$ 324 million, Dubai-listed Aramex saw its profit slump by 37.6% to US$ 18 million, attributable to the Covid-19 impact on its international express and freight forwarding units., as flights and supply chains were disrupted. In line with its rivals, it will be difficult to ascertain the true cost of the pandemic will have on the business because of the problems of forecasting future consumer demands.

If March is anything to go by, the local bourses will continue to struggle to entice foreign investors to move funds to UAE’s stock markets; of the fifty-five listed companies, which have permitted foreign investment, including the likes of CBD, Air Arabia and DIB, the average non-local ownership is 10.32%. Even just before the pandemic outbreak, foreign selling was on the increase so that by March there was a record shortfall in investments of US$ 208 million. As Covid-19 gains traction, this is certain to exacerbate the problem. However, in the past, there had been steady overseas buying so that since January 2019, there had been a net inflow of US$ 599 million, with stocks bought totalling US$ 10.0 billion, including a US$ 3.4 billion increase in net investments of non-Arab foreign investors.

The bourse opened on Sunday 02 May and, 300 points higher (17.4%) over the previous four weeks, shed some of that, down 104 points (5.1%) to close on 1,923 by 07 May. Emaar Properties, having gained US$ 0.15 the previous four weeks, was US$ 0.07 lower atUS$ 0.67, whilst Arabtec, US$ 0.07 higher the previous four weeks, was down US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.18. Thursday 07 May saw the market trading at 182 million shares, worth US$ 51 million, (compared to 317 million shares, at a value of US$ 78 million, on 30 April).

By Thursday, 07 May, Brent, up US$ 4.01 (28.6%) the previous week, gained a further US$ 3.30 (12.5%), to close at US$ 29.78. Gold, down the previous week by US$ 51 (2.9%), regained US$ 36 (2.1%) on the week to close on Thursday 07 May, at US$ 1730.

Despite only having just accessed a US$ 371 million UK government backed loan, IAG, owner of BA, Iberia and Aer Lingus, is also set to receive a five-year US$ 1 billion loan from the Spanish government in state-backed loans for Iberia (US$ 750 million) and Vueling (US$ 250 million); the loan is conditional that the banks involved receive guarantees from state-owned Instituto de Crédito Oficial. It seems iniquitous that IAG’s chief executive, Willie Walsh, had earlier said that his company had sufficient liquidity to see it through the coronavirus pandemic and did not need government support. To add to its pandemic woes, in Q1, the group was hit by a US$ 1.4 billion charge from fuel and currency hedges.

Another airline is warning staff that it will have to cut payroll numbers to “act decisively to protect the future of the business”. Like all other global carriers, Qatar Airways is facing a turbulent and unsettling future and has notified staff that it “will need to make a substantial number of jobs redundant – inclusive of cabin crew.” The airline currently employs 45k and has a fleet of 240 planes; it is also a 25% shareholder in IAG, which, as indicated above, owns BA, Iberia and Aer Lingus.

Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp are planning massive investment cuts in the Permian shale basin, the country’s biggest oilfield, which will see 800k bpd pulled out of the market, as the demand for oil tanks on the back of growing numbers of company lockdowns. At the start of the year. production was ramping up to the one million bpd mark but things changed with the onset of Covid-19, when prices slumped by over 70%, (and at times even went into negative territory) and fuel demand was a third down due to travel and business lockdowns. A lot of money has been borrowed by many companies for shale productions. Many of these will go out of business and the knock-on effect will be felt by the US banks, who will inevitably be on the losing end and carrying billions of dollars of bad loans.

GE is set to cut its aviation workforce by 10%, with more (13k) to come, on the back of the distinct possibility of an extended slowdown of up to 85% in the global travel sector, as Boeing and BA announced recent cuts of 16k and 12k respectively. The US conglomerate has estimated that, to date, the virus has cost it at least US$ 1 billion.

It appears that Hertz is on the brink of filing for bankruptcy after failing to agree terms with some of its creditors to restructure their debt and obtain further credit extensions. The US car rental company’s Chapter 11 filing would allow it time to finalise its discussions with its lenders and try to turn the faltering business around. Currently, the US government has no plans in place to bailout such companies, (unlike the US$ 50 billion one in place for the airlines) so Hertz has been left to deal with its own liquidity problems, attributable to slumping demand, with too many vehicles in operation, and falling prices for used fleet cars. Prior to the lockdown, the 102-year old Florida-based company was operating in 12.4k locations.

Elon Musk has put his foot in it once again. After tweeting that Tesla’s share value was too high, the market reacted quickly, wiping off US$ 14 billion from its market cap, which in turn depleted his personal wealth by US$ 3 billion. Two years ago, he was fined US$ 20 million by New York stock market regulators for tweeting that he may take the company private which saw a marked swing in Tesla’s share price and this was adjudged by the SEC to be a market-moving comment.

Uber is a lead in Lime’s latest US$ 170 million funding round, which includes Bain Capital, GV (formerly known as Google Ventures) and Google’s parent Alphabet. This values the scooter hire firm at US$ 400 million – well down on the US$ 2.4 billion estimated at its previous funding round in February 2019. The money raised will be used for expanding Lime’s range within the micro-mobility sector. As part of this deal, Lime acquired Uber’s own e-bike hire business, Jump.

With the business already struggling prior to the onset of Covid-19, and now falling off a cliff, Uber has moved to cut 3.7k full-time staff members (about 14% of its workforce), which will cost US$ 20 million in severance pay. In line with its competitors, such as Lyft, its business has been badly hit by the fact that not only are more people working from home but also are avoiding such transport for fear of infection. Last year, it posted a massive US$ 8.5 billion loss, and reported that 23% of money spent on the platform emanated from just four metro areas, including New York and London – probably the two biggest global pandemic hotspots.

Airbnb is another travel-related company struggling to come to terms with the consequences of Covid-19. This week, the home rental company cut 25% of its current 7.6k work force to offset recent losses caused by its main revenue stream almost drying up. It expects this year’s revenue to come in more than 50% lower, at US$ 4.8 billion, than in 2019. As the twelve-year old company has decided to focus on its main business and reduce its investments in other non-core activities, it is suspending projects not only in luxury projects but also related to transportation and television production.

Q1 was no fun for Walt Disney Co as the pandemic cost the company US$ 1.4 billion in lost profit. The world’s largest entertainment company saw its theme-park division operating income slump 57.7% to US$ 639 million; revenue did increase by 21.0% to US$ 18 billion thanks mainly to its 21^st Century Fox acquisition last year. The loss this quarter is set to worsen as in April, its parks remained closed, cruises were cancelled, cinemas were closed, and its ESPN network struggled with most live sport events being cancelled. The company has taken some major decisions to reduce costs, including executive pay cuts, furlough for staff, cancelling the US$ 1.6 billion annual dividend and slashing capex by US$ 900 billion.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc confirmed that it had divested its entire shareholding in four of the US’s largest airlines, with the chairman noting that “the world has changed” for the aviation industry. His conglomerate had stakes of 11% in Delta, 10% in both American and Southwest, as well as 9% in United. His firm took a battering in Q1, posting a US$ 49.8 billion loss, compared to net earnings of US$ 21.7 billion a year earlier.

J Crew became the first major US retailer to fall foul of Covid-19 by filing for bankruptcy protection, resulting in its main creditors – Anchorage Capital Group, GSO Capital Partners and Davidson Kempner Capital Management – taking over control. At the same time, they have cancelled debts totalling US$ 1.7 billion and injected a further US$ 400 million financing package. The fashion firm, which has 500 stores which remain closed because of the pandemic, also owns denim clothing specialist Madewell, which it had planned to sell off.

As is the case in most of the western world, retail has been on its knees for some time, attributable mainly to on-line sales and rising property costs, and now Covid-19 has come along to deliver the knock-out punch. Two years ago, when Sears filed for bankruptcy protection, but subsequently survived, it had 700 outlets, now it has only 200. Likewise, JC Penney has been on the same slippery slope for some time and has divested 15% of its stores, now operating only 850.

Despite the pandemic onset, Q1 overall smartphone shipments were 20% higher, year on year, with total quarterly sales of 13.7 million units. Apple grabbed 55.5% of that total with sale figures of 7.6 million, compared to 6.2 million a year earlier. Its main rivals, Samsung and Garmin still trail far behind, accounting for just 13.9% and 8.0% of the 13.7 million smartphone sales, with the former posting an 11.7% rise to 1.9 million and the Kansas company increasing sales by 37.5% to 1.1 million.

There are reports that the proposed merger, between O2 and Virgin Media, owned by Spanish firm Telefonica and O2 respectively, has gone through but is subject to regulatory approval. The mobile operator is the UK’s largest phone company, with 34 million users, and the merger with a broadband giant like Virgin Media, (with three million mobile users and six million broadband and cable TV customers), has created the UK’s largest entertainment and telecoms firm, as well as causing rival BT some sleepless nights. In 2015, a US$ 19.3 billion merger deal between CK Hutchinson’s Three and Telefonica’s O2 was rejected on competition grounds by the EC regulators but this time approval seems to be a formality.

One business sector benefitting from the pandemic is the gaming industry, with reports that Q1 figures have skyrocketed, as more people are having to face lockdown; in these troubled times, the industry has posted record sales, as an increasing number of users turn to their entertainment services. Activision Blizzard’s posted Q1 net revenues from digital channels at US$ 1.4 billion, as player numbers of its games, the most popular of which are Call of Duty and Candy Crush, have been averaging 407 million a month; its latest CoD game, Warzone, has already interested 60 million users since its March launch. Electronic Arts is also “making hay while the sun shines”, with a higher number of users. Its latest edition of Fifa has attracted 25 million players, its Madden NFL 20 has recorded the highest online engagement numbers in the franchise’s history whilst newly released ‘Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order’ already has ten million users.

Like most other countries, UK car registrations have taken a major blow since Covid-19 arrived on the scene. Year on year, registrations fell 97% in April from 161k to just 4k – a figure not seen since April 1946. The impact of the coronavirus lockdown measures saw dealerships all over the country closed for business so that most of the vehicles sold were company related. Despite these dismal numbers, sales are “only” expected to fall 27.0% to 1.7 million this year. The other side of the sector has seen car production grinding to a halt, as factories have been closed since early March and only now are slowly opening. Covid-19 is the last problem the industry wanted, having struggled in recent years with slowing sales, falling demand for diesel vehicles and expensive tough new emissions targets. When the pandemic dissipates, whenever that may be, who will be able – or would want – to buy a car in a deep recession?

It is estimated that India has 122 million people out of a job because of the pandemic and the Modi government imposing a 40-day lockdown. The country, with a 1.3 billion population, has seen its unemployment rate top 27.1%, most of whom were employed as daily wage workers and SME employees – both sectors mostly belong to the more vulnerable parts of Indian society.

As the number of jobs for the month ending 18 April fell by 7.5% (33% in accommodation and food services), almost one million Australian workers – out of a total of 13 million – have lost their jobs, with losses in Victoria (8.6%), Tasmania (8.0%) and South Australia (7.8%) worst hit. The RBA expects the economy to contract by 10% as a direct result of the pandemic and the unemployment rate to top 11% by the end of April. The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has confirmed that more than five million are receiving JobKeeper, which does not apply to casuals who have been with their employer for less than one year; problems with the scheme include bureaucratic complications and that employers have to pay staff upfront before receiving the government assistance. One worrying aspect of the labour crisis is that there had not been a decline in job numbers, but the curve was getting steeper, with a week on week decrease up fivefold to 1.5%.

Covid-19has already cost the US government a record US$ 3 trillion, which includes ‘helicopter’ pay-outs and health funding, bringing the national debt to a mouth-watering US$ 25 trillion. The 2020 figure, which is already almost triple the 2019 amount, is set to rise even further; it is also five times the amount spent at the height of the 2008 GFC and equates to 14% of the US economy. Last month, the US Congressional Budget Office forecast that the 2020 budget deficit would top US$ 3.7 trillion, at the same time the national debt climbed above 100% of GDP. Although recognising the increasing danger to the long-term future of the economy of such high spending, Fed Chief, Jerome Powell, said it was of prime importance to continue with high spending in order to cushion the economic fallout of the pandemic; since the beginning of April, the agency has bought more than US$ 1 trillion in treasuries.

By the end of the week, another 3.2 million Americans sought unemployment benefits: that brings the total of new applications to 33.3 million since mid-March, equating to about 20% of the country’s total workforce, compared to 4.4% in March. ADP (Automatic Data Processing) reported that US companies cut 20.2 million jobs in April, reacting to a lockdown of many factories, retail outlets, offices, construction sites and schools – the lifeblood of the world’s largest economy. The losses will obviously continue into this month, with an optimistic view that hiring will recommence slowly in July but will take at least two more years to return to February 2020 levels. Whilst larger companies shed 8.9 million jobs in April, more than 50% of the losses came from smaller entities employing less than 500. The leisure/hospitality sector reported a further 8.6 million cuts, followed by trade/transportation/utilities, with 3.4 million retrenched, construction 2.5 million jobs, manufacturers 1.7 million and the health care sector 1 million jobs. The scale of this downturn is no longer pointing to a “quick fix” but a much longer and slower “rebound”.

There is no doubt that the global stock markets, already on steroids prior to Covid-19, have become even more volatile, with a case in point being the Australian bourse. April had seen the ASX200 recording it its best month since June 2000, posting an 8.8% return. On Friday, 01 May, the ASX closed the day 5.0% lower to close on 5,245, with the All Ordinaries down 4.9%, whilst losing US$ 55 billion in the process, mainly attributable to dismal US employment figures and some profit-taking.

Latest 2020 forecasts from the EC indicate the bloc’s economy will fall 7.7%, with inflation down to 0.2%, as the so called PIGSs’ economies are expected to fare worse than most. Portugal’s GDP is expected to lose 8.0%, driven by shrinking fixed investment, a major downturn in its vitally important tourism sector and lower consumer spending. Italy, which is the EU country that has suffered most Covid-19 deaths, is forecast to witness a 9.5% decline this year and its budget deficit will balloon from 1.6% of its GDP in 2019 to an expected 11.1%; the country will see its public debt jump from 134.8% to 158.9% of GDP. Greece is the country forecast to contract most with a 9.7% dip in the country’s 2020 GDP. Meanwhile Spain’s budget deficit will also skyrocket from 2.8% to over 10.0%, as its economy declines by 9.4%. It is expected that, at the other end of the scale, countries including Luxembourg, Malta and Austria will come out a little better than average. On the macro level, investment will slump by 13.3%, budget deficits will jump from 0.6% to 8.5% of GDP and public debt will increase 16.7% to 102.7% of GDP in 2020.

Not all countries will come out of the recession the same way, or at the same time, as the depth of the recession will result in economies coming out in different manners and at different levels. For example, Germany has eased restrictions this week, whilst the UK has yet to decide; all things being equal point to the fact that Germany will come out of the recession the quicker of the two. Countries like Portugal are heavily reliant on tourism and indicators are that tourism will be slow to recover so the country may be slower to recover than say Luxembourg, with a much lower dependency on tourism. Germany was in a stronger economic position than Greece before the arrival of the pandemic and thus should be in a better position to recover quicker. The forecasts come with a caveat – the outcome could be a lot worse if Covid-19 runs longer and is more severe than currently envisaged. All bets will be off if the world is hit by a second wave.

Today, the BoE issued its direst ever warning on the state of the UK’s Cvid-19 hit economy and it does not make pleasant reading, warning that the country is heading towards its deepest ever recession. Assuming the lockdown is eased in June, it expects the economy to contract by 14% this year and that jobs and income will be dramatically reduced; activity will not come fully back until next summer. The agency’s latest Monetary Policy Report expects a 3% contraction in Q1, followed by a massively unlikely 25% slump in Q2. It was noted that the housing market had come to a standstill, (and house prices could fall 16%), whilst consumer spending had dropped 30% in April, with shopping in the High Street tanking by 80%. The unemployment level was expected to more than double from 4% to 9%, whilst inflation will start next year at zero. No wonder then that business confidence was “severely depressed”.

However, it must be noted that the BoE has history when it comes to a bit of scaremongering and getting predictions hopelessly wrong. In what seemed a political move at the time, the then governor, Mark Carney, came out in apparent support of the Remain camp ahead of the Brexit referendum vote. He indicated that there would be some sort of economic catastrophe if the UK pulled out of the European bloc, only to eat humble pie some months later, admitting that the BoE had got it wrong. In relation to the latest report, it seems highly unlikely that certain European nations will be that much better off than the UK post Covid-19.

One major – if not the most important – economic casualty of the pandemic could be the just-in-time concept, developed by the Japanese some fifty years ago, with the aim of reducing times within the production cycle, as well as cutting response times of suppliers and customers. Over time, JIT manufacturing has become widely known as lean manufacturing, but it is basically the same as it had always been – with the aim of saving time and money. Famously, Toyota, the main instigator of the concept, had early major problems in South Africa when a dock strike prevented raw materials reaching its plant ‘just in time’, resulting in the inevitable backlog. Improved logistics management, the introduction of the internet and the emergence of digital technology assured that JIT became an integral part of global economic progress.

With regard to inventory, the key to its success was that JIT delivery cut out the high cost of warehousing and the need to actually hold inventories for any longer than necessary. When first introduced on a global scale – mainly relating to production techniques and inventory management – it proved to be revolutionary and the best thing for the economy since sliced bread.

But the arrival of Covid-19 has turned the concept on its head and has left former experts scratching their heads to ascertain why such a finely tuned and complex system went haywire, potentially causing financial pandemonium worldwide. Carmakers have had to close their factories, because of shortage of materials, with tech giants and most of the world’s factories struggling for the same reason. The immediate solution would be to turn back the clock – try and source more domestic material – difficult if local factories had been closed long ago because they could not compete with overseas entities. If that were to happen it would be a severe dent to globalisation. Maybe, the new world, post Covid-19, may see a mix of both but it would also reduce the problem of global trade being held to ransom from the shenanigans of the two superpowers – USA and China.

Then along came the delivery couriers, Uber and Airbnb and before we know it a new term has entered the commercial vocabulary – the gig economy. This new category of worker does not have fulltime employee status as well as not being fully protected by the law, as is the case for full-time workers. Before we knew, it had crept into other sectors so that before the world realised everything seemed to have to be done just in time.

The gig economy, estimated to number 150 million in North America and Europe (including 1.3 million in the UK), treats people as independent contractors, not employees, and normally pays on piece rate, with a set payment to drive a person somewhere or to deliver a package. It often involves connecting the two stakeholders, customers and clients, through a third-party online platform. Zero-hour contracts also treat people as contractors, who are paid hourly with no set minimum. There was much concern about the ethical value of such arrangements prior to the advent of the pandemic, as “wages” paid were often below government minimum levels and lacked “normal” employment benefits such as holiday pay, public holidays and sick leave. In many ways, employment in the gig economy is similar to the traditional JIT inventory management – perhaps this could be known as JWN, i.e. using labour ‘just when needed’. There is no doubt that it enables companies to save costs and perhaps for them work more efficiently, by only using labour when required, usually to the detriment of the “worker”. (There is also the danger of a rising number of zombie workers becoming more isolated post Covid-19).

Take away the safety net of not working directly for an employer, then suddenly there is no money to pay the bills. The nature of the business is that persons working in the gig economy are often at the lower end of the food chain, especially working on a zero-hour contract, whilst others are involved in SMEs that often take time to build up a business. Many start-ups fail to get off the ground and many of those that do struggle to make ends meet in their early stages. There is no doubt that a post-pandemic review will see changes. The JIT process in this regard just does not work when the system is put under any sort of stress as so many individuals and SMEs have little or no cash reserves when their revenue stream disappears. Business bills have to be settled and people paid for their labour – if not, other businesses are pulled into the problem and end up with a liquidity problem with the same unfortunate ending of having no cash to settle liabilities. So the just in time money supply that used to keep the gig economy and small companies turning over has gone out of the window. What was once a manageable risk for the economy, because it could cope with individual ‘failures’, becomes a systemic one when there is a failure of the entire system of ‘just getting by’ because it no longer works.

Even before anyone had heard of Covid-19, too many households – and small businesses – were living hand to foot and carried little or no extra emergency cash, relying on maxing up on credit cards or availing of short-term loans. A recent study concluded that 25% of Australian households only had ‘savings’ of less than US$ 650. Last December, the country’s household debt (at US$ 220k) stood at 124.9% of nominal GDP, whilst the level of housing debt to income had jumped to a record high of 140.4%, mostly credit card-related, followed by home loans. The level of household debt to income has topped 191% for the first time, as the debt burden has almost trebled in the past thirty years. Australia is typical of what is happening worldwide.

As financial stress levels tighten in this segment of the economy, the consequences are felt in households where a reduction in cash leads to less consumer spending and a dilution in consumer confidence. If this spend accounts for 70% of some countries’ GDP, there has to be a negative and dangerous impact of less money circulating in the economy not only in retail but also by institutions such as banks, (when mortgages, loans and credit card payments suffer), educational institutions – when fees cannot be paid – utilities and insurance companies. Discretionary spending takes a battering so everything from motor vehicles, white goods, hotel stays and house purchases will see less custom.

All of a sudden, the ‘get out of jail’ credit card debt portal does not exist, and people cannot rely on topping up their credit card to purchase items. This then impacts not only on the merchants, who no longer have a sale, but also on banks that miss out on a lucrative revenue stream that used to return up to 20%. The banks also lose out on non-payment of loans, reduced mortgages, an increased rate of bad debts and a depletion in personal investments. Then what happens? Businesses also will have less access to bank loans as the money cycle tightens and the merry-go-round is completed by the government missing out on tax revenues which have been greatly reduced by lower company profits and less people paying income tax, VAT etc. On top of that, governments are forced to spend money on unemployment and other benefits, further depleting the state coffers. The whole economy is suddenly in a downward spiral when governments, banks, companies and people stop spending and the economic cycle stops working all because ‘just in time’ is no longer a viable concept. Now is time for just in Time To Move On!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged Australian economy, BoE, Covid-19, IAG, Indian economy, Just in Time, UAE banks, uber, US Labour | Leave a comment

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