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Helter Skelter!

Posted on April 12, 2025 by howesdubai

Helter Skelter! 11 April 2025

There is no doubt that Dubai’s bull property market continues unabated, entering 2025 with robust Q1 figures proving the point, with all indicators of much the same expected for the rest of the year. Since 2020, property sales have rocketed 521.7% in value to US$ 29.84 billion, with transactions 377.6% higher numbering 37.0k.

2020 – US$ 5.72 billion 9.8k transactions
2021 – US$ 6.70 billion 11.6k transactions
2022 – US$ 14.88 billion 20.2k transactions
2023 – US$ 24.25 billion 31.1k transactions
2024 – US$ 29.84 billion 37.0k transactions

On an annual basis, in Q1:

total transactions up 22.8% to 43.5k; value up 28.9% at US$ 31.36bn;

median property prices up 13.3%

off plan transactions up 33.4% to 29.8k; value up 34.4% at US$ 21.50bn
secondary transactions up 4.6% to 13.7k; value up 18.3% at US$ 9.86bn
rentals transactions up 2.7% to 166.9k; value up 18.7% at US$ 3.98bn

The UAE’s 2024 tourism sector grew 3.0%, on the year, and generated US$ 12.26 billion in revenue, according to the Chairman of the Emirates Tourism Council. Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri attributed the robust state of the sector to progressive government initiatives and its sustainable policies and strategies. Hotel occupancy rates, among the highest in the world, climbed to 78% in 2024, as the country saw the opening of sixteen new hotels, bringing the total to 1.25k, with a 3.0% rise in rooms to 217k. The number of hotel guests across the UAE topped 30.8 million, equating to an annual 9.5% growth.

Having reached a nine-month high at the end of 2024, the UAE March PMI, dropped 1.0 to 54.0 on the month which shows a ‘slower but solid improvement’ in private sector performance. New job creation in the UAE was at its weakest over the last three years, with many companies maintaining their payroll figures at the same levels. UAE businesses were ‘subdued’ in March, and in fact recorded the weakest showing over the last 3 years. Most businesses are showing a preference to keep their workforce numbers at the same levels rather than go for major additions. Also marginally lower was demand growth in the UAE private sector – at its weakest since September 2024, although business conditions improved at a solid pace. It is obvious that UAE business entities are focussing on protecting their operating and profit margins, which saw some of them raise their prices at the ‘second-fastest pace in over seven years’. New order growth has softened which may indicate that sales targets are not being met, with problems due to widespread delays in customer payments – not a new problem for many businesses. With Trump tariffs becoming realty this month, April’s PMI will prove to be more interesting reading.

A study by Henley & Partners has indicated that Dubai is now ranked three places higher, on the year, to eighteenth in its‘World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2024’. The emirate is now home to 81.2k millionaires, including two hundred and thirty-seven centi-millionaires (those with wealth exceeding US$ 100 million) and twenty billionaires. The emirate has fast become one of the leading global hubs for investment, business and HNWIs, and welcomed eight thousand, seven hundred new millionaires last year, with that number increasing by 102% over the past decade. With these figures, it is no surprise to see Dubai becoming the third-fastest growing city in the world for high net-worth individuals – behind Shenzhen and Hangzhou. The report revealed that Dubai increased the total number of HNWIs, by 12.0%, to 81.2k by the end of 2024. Driven by sustained economic growth, an investor-friendly climate, pro-active government initiatives and a strategic vision for the future, the report forecasts that the number of wealthy people, with a net worth exceeding US$ 100 million, is expected to double by 2034.

On his state visit to India, Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, inaugurated DP World’s state-of-the-art Free Trade Warehousing Zone in Mumbai. DP World has developed three world-leading FTWZs in India with an investment of over US$ 200 million. He noted that “the establishment of world-class logistics infrastructure, such as the Nhava Sheva Business Park, not only strengthens the trade connectivity between our nations but also reinforces our shared vision for growth, innovation, and sustainability”. These three Indian FTWZs are well integrated with DP World’s Jebel Ali Free Zone, facilitating seamless cargo movement and strengthening global trade connectivity for both countries.

In a special event, organised by Dubai Chambers, in Mumbai, and attended by the Crown Prince, India’s top business school, IIM Ahmedabad, announced it was set to open a new campus in Dubai, with plans already in place to build a UAE-India Friendship Hospital in the emirate. Furthermore, a total of eight MoUs were signed, including:

Dubai Chambers signing three MoUs, with leading Indian industry bodies, to boost economic engagement
DP World signing two MoUs, with Indian companies, to enhance supply chain and maritime collaboration
Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) and IIM Ahmedabad to launch a world-class business school campus in Dubai. IIM-A aims to launch its one-year full-time MBA Programme in Dubai later this year. In the second phase, IIM-A will be allotted land for the establishment of a permanent campus, which is expected to become operational by 2029
Dubai Health signing an agreement to establish UAE-India Friendship Hospital
Dubai Medical University signing an agreement, with All India Institute of Medical Sciences, to advance academic and research collaboration, covering AI and digital transformation of medical education and healthcare

The UAE Ministry of Investment, India’s Ministry of Petroleum, and Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Energy have signed a JV agreement to develop Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee into a strategic energy hub. The deal will result in a range of infrastructure and energy projects, including the refurbishment and development of the Trincomalee Tank Farm, bunker fuel supply initiatives, and the possible development of a new refinery project; it also includes the construction of a bi-directional petroleum pipeline between India and Sri Lanka, strengthening regional logistics and fuel security. Mohamed Hassan Al Suwaidi, UAE’s Minister of Investment, noted that, “this MoU exemplifies the UAE’s commitment to strategic regional partnerships that promote diplomacy, long-term economic resilience and sustainable infrastructure development. Together with our partners in India and Sri Lanka, we aim to unlock the full potential of Trincomalee as a key energy and logistics gateway for South Asia”.

This week saw the signing of a MoU between the UAE and Ireland, in a bid to enhance bilateral economic and technical cooperation and to set up a joint economic commission between the two countries. Its remit will be to collaborate in various sectors, including trade, renewable energy, infrastructure development, the digital/green economy, supply chain resilience, food security and healthcare technology.

This week, the Central Bank of the UAE released statistics relating to January. Total investments of banks, operating in the UAE, rose by 1.0%, on the month, to reach US$ 2,024.25 billion, marking an annual increase of 16.1%. Bank investments in securities representing debt on others grew 26.1% to US$ 90.54 billion on the year. Held-to-maturity bonds rose by an annual 7.9% but declined by 1.1% on the month to reach US$ 91.47billion. Banks’ investments in equities grew by 19.4% on the year but dipped 1.5% on the month to US$ 5.20 billion. Other investments increased at an annual 13.2% and a monthly 2.2%, to US$ 15.20 billion. There was a 9.5% annual growth in total credit, which reached US$ 595.64 trillion, while total deposits grew by 11.8% on the year to US$ 77.38 billion. Banking assets increased by an annual 11.0%, and by 0.1%, on the month, to surpass US$ 1,243.05 trillion. The value of transfers processed through the UAE Funds Transfer System exceeded US$ 486.65 billion – 18.0% higher on the year. This included US$ 302.18 billion in interbank transfers and approximately US$ 184.47 billion in customer transfers. The value of cheques, cleared via image-based processing, reached US$ 32.28 billion in the month, involving 1.956 million cheques. Cash withdrawals from the Central Bank amounted to US$ 5.43 billion, while deposits totalled around US$ 4.15 billion.

As part of its continuous efforts to enhance the UAE’s investment environment, attract more investors and promote economic growth, the Ministry of Finance has issued Cabinet Decision No. 34 of 2025 on Qualifying Investment Funds and Qualifying Limited Partnerships. One major take from the updated legislation is the introduction of a favourable tax treatment, ensuring that investors deriving income from a QIF will not be subject to UAE Corporate Tax on the income, provided that the real estate asset threshold (10%), or the diversity of ownership conditions, are not breached. Furthermore, it offers greater flexibility, granting QIFs a grace period so any breaches of the diversity of ownership requirements, even after the first two years of establishment, can be remedied. This grace period allows them to remedy any breaches of the diversity of ownership requirements, provided such breaches do not exceed an aggregate of ninety days in a year or if they occur during the liquidation or termination of the fund. In future, any breaches of the diversity of ownership requirements will only impact the investors responsible for the breach and will not disqualify the overall fund as a QIF.

With the US$ 200 million acquisition of Bahrain’s BFC Group Holdings. Dubai-based, and DFM-listed, Al Ansari Financial Services is now the GCC’s biggest non-banking financial services company, as well as operating the UAE’s biggest remittance firm. The acquisition of BFC has raised the Group’s customer base by 29% and branch network by 60%, and has expanded Al Ansari’s presence across Bahrain, Kuwait and India. The firm expects early gains on its financials, including double-digit EBITDA growth across the board including operating income, EBITDA and net profit after tax by 20%, 13% and 13%; it also noted that a stronger cash generation may result in a bigger dividend, with the Group CEO, Rashed Al Ansari, adding that “the anticipated boost in cash flow post-integration reinforces our commitment to providing strong returns for our investors”.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 07 April, one hundred and fifty-nine points lower, (3.1%), the previous week, gained fifteen points (0.3%), to close the trading week on 4,966 points, by Friday 11 April 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.45 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.05, closing on US$ 3.28 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.22 US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.35 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.25 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.34. On 11 April, trading was at one hundred and forty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and thirty-three million dollars, compared to one hundred and eighty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-two million dollars, on 04 April.

By Friday, 11 April 2025, Brent, US$ 6.19 lower (9.7%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.08 (1.6%) to close on US$ 64.59. Gold, US$ 60 (2.0%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 214 (7.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,238 on 11 April.

All ME stock markets tanked on Monday, including the DFM driven to the double whammy of the US tariffs and the sinking of oil prices – and things can only get worse at least in the short-term. The DFM plunged 6.0% at the opening bell and closed the day 3.08% but during the morning session, Emaar Properties, Emaar Development and Dubai Islamic Bank lost 9.0%, 8.0% and 7.5%. Even more worryingly in the big picture is the fall in oil prices, which last week had shed 9.7% to close on US$ 65.67. If Brent were to move lower and hover around the US$ 63 mark, then there will be worries across the GCC; it is easy to see that there would be an impact on economic growth and probable cutbacks on diversification plans and capex budgets. It seems that Saudi Arabia’s break even could be around US$ 85, whilst the UAE’s fiscal break-even is around US$ 55. Luckily, the DFM recovered all its early week losses and ended on Friday with a marginal 0.3% increase but more worryingly for the UAE was the continuing decline in Brent Crude, down by 10.1% over the past fortnight.

In Q1, Airbus SE delivered one hundred and thirty-six commercial aircraft, six more than its rival Boeing’s, helped by handing over seventy-one jets in March to customers such as China Eastern Airlines and United Airlines Holdings Inc. The European plane maker has out-produced Boeing for years, but its US rival has been ramping up output while Airbus has struggled with supplier shortfalls. Airbus said it secured two hundred and eleven gross orders last month, to customers including Jackson Square Aviation and BOC Aviation, and had a 24.8k aircraft backlog. Based on current figures, this backlog will be cleared within the next one hundred and eight two quarters – or by 2071! Obviously, the major problem facing these two giants, along with the industry in general, is the uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs. Delta, its biggest customer, posted that it would not be paying any tariff costs on Airbus planes it imports.

Weeks after losing a court case which awarded a man US$ 50 million in damages for burns over a spilled hot cup of tea, Starbucks is facing two new lawsuits, caused by scalding liquids slopped over customers, at drive-throughs. The first case involved claims that, two years ago, a woman was seriously hurt when hot liquid tipped into her lap at a branch in Norwalk, near Los Angeles; it was alleged that one of the cups, in her order, was not properly secured. The second case was also in California, where it is alleged that a man was seeking unspecified damages for negligence, again caused by a drink not properly secured. The drink spilled onto his lap, leaving him with “severe burns, disfigurement and debilitating nerve damage to his genitals and buttocks”.

There was some good news for the UK economy, with the announcement that Universal is to build its first European theme park in the UK. Comcast president, Mike Cavanagh, praised the Chancellor and the Business and Culture Ministries for having “brought [the investment] over the finish line”, with equal effusiveness been shown by Rachel Reeves; however, the Chancellor refused to reveal how much public money was used to “get over the line”, considering that nothing was left on the table to save British Steel. She confirmed “the UK are backing Universal in this investment,” adding “the details of that are confidential”.

In a bid to soften the impact of Trump’s tariffs, South Korea, with exports to the US increasingly markedly over recent years, announced emergency support measures for its auto sector; last year, its auto exports to the US were valued at US$ 34.7 billion, and accounted for 49% of the country’s total auto exports. The government confirmed that it will negotiate with the US and that it will support the sector financially, (with an annual 15.4% increase to US$ 10.18 billion), but also via tax cuts, (down 1.5% to 3.5%), and doubling subsidies to boost domestic demand. The global 25% levy started yesterday, with manufacturers expected to bear the brunt of the tariff costs in the first year. The government expects this to cause “significant” damage to South Korean automakers and auto parts manufacturers. The country’s main vehicle manufacturer Hyundai has recently announced a US$ 21.0 billion investment in the US and announced that it plans to keep sticker prices, on its current model lineup, steady until the end of May.

As it considers the ramifications of Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles, Jaguar Land Rover, owned by India’s Tata Motors will pause shipments of its Britain-made cars to the US for a month. A statement noted that “as we work to address the new trading terms with our business partners, we are taking some short-term actions, including a shipment pause in April, as we develop our mid- to longer-term plans.” It is estimated that it exports over 100k vehicles, including Range Rover Sports, Defenders and other models and that it has two months’ supply already in the US which will not be subject to the 25% tariffs. The US, being the UK’s second biggest vehicle importer after the EU, accounts for about 20% share of the market. Jeep-owner Stellantis has also paused production at some Canadian and Mexican assembly plants.

As with other global carmakers, the UK industry was struggling even before Trump’s tantrum tariffs and earlier in the week the Starmer government finally softened demands on automakers to switch to production of EVs. The government’s new measures include a reduction in fines car manufacturers must pay if they cannot comply with EV sales targets (and will also exempt micro-volume manufacturers, including Aston Martin, Bentley and McLaren). Although the 2030 phase-out date for new petrol and diesel cars will remain unchanged at 2030, full hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles and cars, like the Toyota Prius and Nissan e-Power, will be able to be sold until 2035. While overall EV sales rose last year, they were driven by commercial buyers, with only one in ten individual car buyers choosing to go electric. In March, EVs made up 19% of sales – well short of the 28% that carmakers would have needed to achieve in 2025 to meet the government’s EV mandate. However, the sector has warned that it needs to go further to protect it from the collateral damage emanating from tariffs. It is estimated that the UK exports more than one million vehicles, valued at US$ 9.79 billion, to the US – most of which are in the luxury and premium market segments.

There were mixed results from the latest annual financials from Tesco, with revenue, excluding VAT but including fuel, 2.5% higher at US$ 90.61 billion, in line with market expectations, whilst there was a 3.2% dip in profit before tax at US$ 2.85 billion. The leading supermarket chain has said it plans to slash a further US$ 649 million in costs, as it deals with the fall-out from Rachel Reeves’ October budget with the 1.2% rise in employers’ national insurance contributions to 15.0%, (costing Tesco an extra US$ 305 million), and the increase in the minimum wage, as it tries not only to cushion the blow of Rachel Reeves’s tax increases but also to invest in fighting a price war with rivals. The only person who could not see that these moves would result in loss of jobs, and higher prices in shops, seems to be the Chancellor herself. The country’s number one grocer budget expects a tumultuous year, ahead as the battle for customers intensifies and a price war with its rivals. A further share buyback of US$ 1.88 billion, to be completed by April 2026, has been announced by Tesco, with US$ 974 million from free cash flow and the balance of US$ 909 million, funded by the sale of its banking operations.

Some more good news for the embattled Starmer administration, that following zero growth in January, February witnessed the UK economy growing strongly, at 0.5%, and 0.6% for the quarter ending 28 February; analysts were looking at a 0.1% expansion. The main drivers were widespread growth across both the services and manufacturing industries with construction activity, the production sector and the services sector all heading north by 0.4%, 0.3% and 3.0%.

This week, EY was fined US$ 6.32 million, by the Financial Reporting Council, for its sub-standard role in its 2017 and 2018 audits of Thomas Cook; it beggars belief that it has taken seven years to finalise this matter. The amazing aspect of the fine is that EY received a 25% discount, from the initial US$ 8.43 million, for admissions and early disposal! Its audit engagement partner, Richard Wilson, was fined US$ 136k. The FRC concluded that “EY and Mr Wilson have each admitted serious breaches of standards relating to the work performed on two important areas of the financial statements: goodwill impairment and going concern, as well as failing to adequately consider a risk to EY’s independence during the 2018 audit”.

With the principal aim of creating a business that could better compete with industry giants, such as the French conglomerates LVMH and Kering, and amid a global sector slowdown, Italian fashion house Prada has acquired Versace, from Capri Holdings, in a US$ 1.40 billion deal. Prada will now be running a business, with revenues of over US$ 6.86 billion. In 2018, Capri paid US$ 2.1 billion to acquire Versace, which was previously 80% family-owned and 20% by the US investment fund BlackRock. Because of market turbulence arising from the tariffs, Capri, which also owns Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors, had hoped to sell at US$ 1.60 billion and has had to take a US$ 200 million haircut to see the deal through. Last month, Donatella Versace stepped down as creative director after more than thirty years – a move brought on ahead of the sale, in what was widely seen as a prelude to the deal; she had taken over that position in 1997, following the murder of her older brother, Gianni, who had founded the Milanese company in 1978.

Virgin Australia came clean this week by admitting to a huge mistake that has seen 61k customers overcharged, by an average of US$ 34, in the five years ending March 2025; the total sum involved is a rather paltry US$ 2.1 million. The airline has notified the ACCC and will work with the regulator on any additional actions necessary. The overcharges occurred when changes were made to their itineraries, with “some bookings were repriced in a way that does not align with our policy and, we are refunding all impacted guests for that amount.” Deloitte has been appointed to manage the claims process, which will be open for twelve months. The ACCC said it is assessing whether the remedial actions taken by Virgin are suitable and what penalties to charge. (Qantas reached a US$ 74.3 million agreement with the ACCC to settle a lawsuit against the airline for selling seats on flights that had already been cancelled in 2024).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was quick off the blocks to rebuff a Chinese approach for Australia to “join hands” against Donald Trump’s tariffs, as Washington escalates its trade war with Beijing. Two facts probably decided the problem– one was the approach of an Australian general election early next month, (and the fear of a voter backlash), and the other was that Australia was facing a US import tax of 10%, whilst China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, was at the end of tariffs totalling 125%. The White House recently imposed an import tax of 10% on Australian goods, but for China – Australia’s biggest trading partner – it raised tariffs to 125%. China had argued that joint resistance was “the only way” to stop the “hegemonic and bullying behaviour of the US”, with the Prime Minister responding that Australians would “speak for ourselves”, while the country’s defence minister, Richard Marles, said the nation would not be “holding China’s hand”, and “it’s about pursuing Australia’s national interests, not about making common calls with China”. Earlier in the week, the Australians confirmed that it would not retaliate and would be having further negotiations with the White House.

Wednesday saw Nvidia shares surge 18.7%, to $114.33, but later close on US$ 112.58, on news that the Trump administration had reportedly reversed its decision to impose restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 AI chip exports to China; it appears that the US president recently had dinner with the company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, at Mar-a-Lago. As per the Forbes’ Real-time Billionaires List, Huang was back on the super billionaire’s list, after a US$ 15.5-billion jump in his wealth to US$ 100.1 billion. This chip is the firm’s most advanced AI processor that can still legally be sold in China, under current US export rules, and there is a sense that the administration may have changed its tune, with Nvidia having reportedly committed to new US investments in AI data centres. In Q1, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and other tech giants placed orders worth at least US$ 16 billion, with the demand fuelled by the rise of cost-efficient AI models from Chinese startup DeepSeek. But it has not been plain sailing, as exemplified by the wealth of its CEO which has shrunk US$ 30 billion YTD.

With March declines in both global cereal and sugar prices offset by a marked increase in vegetable oil prices, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations posted that its Food Price Index, a benchmark of world food commodity price developments, remained largely unchanged on the month. The index averaged 127.1 points – 6.9% higher than in March 2024 but still 20.7% below its March 2022 peak. Section-wise, the various FAO Price Indices registered the following in March:

Cereal 2.6% and 1.1% lower on the month and the year; wheat prices dipped, despite currency movements moving higher; maize and sorghum prices declined in February and sunflower oils all rose, driven by robust global import demand
- Rice 1.7% lower on the month; driven by weak import demand and ample exportable supplies
- Vegetable Oil 3.7% and 23.9% higher on the month and the year; palm soy, rapeseed, sunflower oils all rose, driven by robust global import demand
- Meat 0.9% and 2.7% higher on the month and the year; driven by higher pig meat prices in Europe after Germany regained foot-and-mouth-disease-free status and the strengthening of the euro against the greenback
- Poultry Meat stable; despite the continued challenges posed by widespread avian influenza outbreaks in some major producing countries
- Dairy lower global cheese prices offset by higher prices for butter and milk powders
- Sugar weaker global demand along with recent rainfall in southern Brazil and deteriorating production prospects in India

Swiss bank UBS estimates that there will be a 10% to 12% increase in the prices of goods that come from Vietnam – where Nike produces 50% of its shoes. BBC have done a simple exercise showing by how much its Nike Air Jordan 1, first produced for use by Michael Jordan in November 1984, would be impacted by the tariffs; most of its products are sold in the US. On ‘Liberation Day’, it was announced that the likes of Vietnam, Indonesia and China would face some of the heaviest US import taxes – between 32% to 54%. The former, whose exports account for 90% of the country’s GDP, got clobbered with a 46% levy.

Pre-Tariff Post-Tariff

Factory Cost in Vietnam US$ 20 – 30 US$ 20 – 30
Shipping & Fees to US US$ 4 – 6 US$ 4 – 6
Import Duty into US 14% US$ 3 – 6 46% US$ 9 – 17
Total Cost US$ 27 – 42 US$ 33 – 53
Retail Price US$ 120 – 150 US$ 120 – 150

This simple table shows that the variance between the landed price in the US and the retail price in the shop is between US$ 93 and US$ 108 (pre-tariff), which could be recorded as gross profit and between US$ 87 – US$ 97 (post-tariff, assuming no retail price increase). From the US$ 93 – US$ 108 gross profit, other stakeholders – including the wholesaler, the retail distributor, state tax entities, ‘marketing’ and maybe consumers, (having to bear some extra cost) – have to take their cut. Assuming the direct costs of Factory and Shipping remain constant, the tariff has increased direct costs by between US$ 6 – US$ 11 per pair of Nike Air Jordan 1 trainers. The fact that Nike’s shares fell 14% the day after the Trump’s announcement, based on the effect they could have on the company’s supply chain, seems to be a case of over-reaction.

As from last Saturday, 05 April, U.S. customs agents had begun collecting the unilateral 10% tariff on all imports from many countries, including, Australia, the UK and the UAE, with higher levies on goods from fifty-seven larger trading partners due to start 09 April. A U.S. Customs and Border Protection bulletin to shippers indicated no grace period for cargoes on the water at midnight on Saturday. However, there was a fifty-one-day grace period for cargoes loaded onto vessels or planes and in transit to the US before 12:01 am ET Saturday, but they need to arrive by 12.01 am ET on 27 May to avoid the tariff. Last Wednesday, the same process took place for Trump’s higher “reciprocal” tariff rates of 11% to 50%, including EU, Chinese and Vietnamese imports being hit with 20%, 54% and 46% tariffs. There are exclusions, including a list of 1k products, valued at US$ 645 billion, such as crude oil, petroleum products and other energy imports, pharmaceuticals, uranium, titanium, lumber and semiconductors and copper. Furthermore, Canada and Mexico are exempted because they are still subject to a 25% tariff related to the U.S. fentanyl crisis for goods that do not comply with the US.-Mexico-Canada rules of origin; there are also exclusions for goods – such as steel/aluminium, cars, trucks and auto parts – subject to separate, 25% national security tariffs.

On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had posted that more than fifty nations had started negotiations since Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, simultaneously defending levies that wiped out nearly US$ 6 trillion in value from US stocks last week as well as downplaying economic backlash. There was no mention of the identity of the fifty nations, but by then, Zimbabwe and Israel had cancelled such levies on US imports whilst Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, announced zero tariffs, as the basis for talks with the US, pledging to remove trade barriers and saying Taiwanese companies will raise their US investments; Bessent noted that “he’s created maximum leverage for himself.” He also commented there was “no reason” to anticipate a recession based on the tariffs, citing stronger-than-anticipated US jobs growth.

Trump on Wednesday slapped a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US, along with heavy levies on tech production hubs such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, deepening a selloff triggered by concerns about AI spending that had pushed Nasdaq into correction territory earlier last month.

There is no doubt that many will understand the position the US President is in and his reasons to try and level the ‘trading playing field’. The country’s trade deficit widened 12.2% in 2022 to nearly US$ 1 trillion as Americans bought large volumes of foreign machinery, pharmaceuticals, industrial supplies and car parts. The US last had a trade surplus in 1975, and now the current 2024 current account deficit had widened by US$ 228.2 billion, (25.2%), to a record US$ 1.13 trillion, equating to 3.9% of GDP, 0.6% higher on the year. In comparison, the UK had a US$ 98 billion current account deficit, (2.7% to GDP), whilst the EU showed a current account surplus of US$ 361 billion (equating to 1.9% of GDP). Maybe Donald Trump is right when he says, “we have been the dumb and helpless ‘whipping post,’ but not any longer. We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before,” and that “this is an economic revolution, and we will win,” adding “hang tough, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”

Markets just do not dramatically fall without a reason and there are many so-called experts out there who opine that that the current stock market drop is as a direct result of the tariffs which in turn will have a knock-on impact on higher inflation, rising unemployment and a slowing economic growth environment. Indeed, JPMorgan’s latest estimates see US GDP declining by 1.0% to 0.3%, with unemployment 1.1% higher at 5.3%.

All the global markets have become nervy on fears of a recession as indicated by the US bourses posting probably their biggest one-day falls seen since the pandemic. Once doubt enters Wall Street, the rest of the world takes action as investors flee riskier assets on genuine and realistic fears that tariffs could spark a trade war – and push the world into a man-made recession. Analysis of FTSE All World data by the investment platform AJ Bell last Thursday, 03 April, put the value of the peak losses among indices at US$ 2.2 trillion – it saw the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 5.8%, 4.3% and just under 4% at the height of the declines. Australian shares suffered their worst week since June 2022, as nearly US$ 70 billion was wiped off the All-Ordinaries index on Friday. The ASX, having fallen 11.0%, (including 3.9% last week), since its all-time high in mid-February, has now entered into ‘technical correction” territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index is in a bear market on Friday, after the index fell 20% lower from its 16 December 2024 record high of 20,174 points. (One definition of a bear market is when an index closes down at least 20%, from its most recent record high finish). Last Friday it ditched a further 3.8%, after China announced retaliatory action by adding 34% tariffs on US goods. Even before the Donald Trump Show, Nasdaq had been corralled into correction territory last month following concerns about AI spending that had pushed Nasdaq into correction territory earlier last month. The S&P 500 Index was nearing to confirming a bear market, trading 14.9% lower on its 6,144 points high, whilst the Dow was on track to confirm a correction, having posted a 10% drop from its record closing high.

Tech was the big loser from the spillover in the global markets. Apple was one of the main casualties, mainly because China, (facing an aggregate 54% tariff) is home to its major manufacturing production base; since the Trump announcement, it has lost 12.5% of its market cap. Over the same period the likes of Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft have seen their share values lower by 13.3%, 12.6%, 11.2%, 5.3% and 4.6%. Notwithstanding the tariff impact, other factors have seen Tesla shares plummet 37% of its value.

The Magnificent Seven stocks include:

Apple US$ 3.05 trillion
Microsoft US$ 2.79 trillion
Nvidia US$ 2.50 trillion
Amazon US$ 1.91 trillion
Alphabet US$ 1.84 trillion
Meta Platforms US$ 1.37 billion
Tesla US$ 860 billion

An Exchange Traded Fund tracking the Magnificent Seven stocks, that have been mainly responsible for recent Wall Street record levels, had slumped about 27% from its December all-time high. Many retail stocks including those for Target and Footlocker lost more than 10% of their respective market values. The “danger” stocks, taking the hits, were from big energy, with Brent crude oil shedding US$ 6.19 (9.7%), last week, to close on US$ 65.67. Financial stocks were worst hit with Asia-focused Standard Chartered bank enduring the worst fall in percentage terms of 13%, followed closely by its larger rival HSBC.

Tariff-stunned markets started Monday facing another five days of potential confusion and uncertainty after the worst week for US, (and most global), stocks since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis five years ago. Analysts said that Trump may have a preference to propose aggressive tariffs in order to extract quick concessions in their negotiations. Monday and Tuesday witnessed further slumps in the markets. There were two scenarios doing the rounds – it was part of the US President’s strategy to crash the markets so as to pressure the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The other was that the aggressive approach was simply a negotiating tactic that could lead to the tariffs being eased through quick concessions by other countries. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that it could be the latter, saying the tariffs would remain in place “for days and weeks.” Markets continued heading south whilst the number of nations wanting to do a deal with the White House was moving to triple digits. (One hundred and eighty nations and territories have been impacted by hit by reciprocal tariffs). It had been reported that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Trump in Florida on Sunday, who urged him to emphasise striking trade deals with partners in order to reassure the markets that there is an endgame to the US strategy. Furthermore, he asserted that the pullback had been the plan all along to bring countries to the bargaining table.

In the perfect Trump World, there would be trade equality but that was never going to happen, and the President would have known that. It could be that he was willing to let the markets go even lower, (that would help in another of his aims – to see interest rates lower), but that the increase in bond yields, that makes borrowing more expensive, and the fall in the greenback, may have pushed him to introduce a ninety-day reprieve. He had made a point and had most of the free world knocking on his door to discuss new improved trading relations for the US.

Thirteen hours after they came into force, and in typical Trump style announced a ninety-day pause for his “reciprocal” tariffs everywhere. On the news of his policy change, of a tariff reprieve – excluding China which was hit with an extravagant 145% – but still maintaining a 10% baseline tariff rate, (against all trading partners outside of Canada and Mexico), global shares rose sharply, (except for China) and a global bond sell-off stabilised. The remaining tariffs remain:

a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium
a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and certain auto parts
Canada: 25% on most goods that don’t comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement
Mexico: 25% on most goods that don’t comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement

Since the 02 April “Liberation Day”, when the S&P was trading at 5,633, before it fell 11.5% to 4,983 on 08 April and three days later recovered 7.6% to end today’s trading at 5,363 today Similarly the figures for the Nasdaq Composite were 17,601, down 13.3% to 15,268 and recovering 9.5% to 16,724; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42,225, down 10.8% to 37,646 and recovering 6.8% to 40,213. Over the period 02 April to 11 April, the three bourses have seen falls of 4.8%, 5.0 % and 4.8%. On 02 April, the greenback was trading at 1.09 to the euro, then at 1.10 on 08 April, rising to US$ 1.14 today. In the short run, Trump will see advantages in a temporary weak dollar, currently down to market volatility and waning confidence, with a flight to other safe haven currencies, (such as the Swiss dollar), and gold.

Today’s sell off in the bond market ended probably the most volatile week since the pandemic, with yields surging and investors fleeing to safe haven assets such as gold which hit a record high US$ 3,238 and safe-haven currencies. Long-term Treasury yields hit the roof, with ten-year yields topping 4.59% – 72bp higher than the 3.87% posted on Monday, 07 April.

The ninety-day reprieve gives everyone breathing space. Donald Trump will be looking at finalising as many agreements, as he can, to reduce the US trade deficit to what he considers a fair level. In normal circumstances, this will result in a stronger dollar, a growing economy, increased US investment in industry/infrastructure and lower long-term Treasury yields. His other mission is to settle with his “friend”, Chinese Xi Jingpin, whilst he keeps up the pressure on the number two provider of US imports. Trump has commented that “there’ll be fair deals. I just want fair. There will be fair deals for everybody.” Time will tell! There is no doubt that Trump has shaken the global trading to its core and, with such drastic changes, he was bound to upset the world order to its core. Until 08 July, expect international trade, the markets and global Treasury bonds to be in a hectic state of Helter Skelter!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged China, economy, Finance, politics, tariffs | Leave a comment

Little Helper!

Posted on April 4, 2025 by howesdubai

Little Helper! 04 April 2025

This week Unique Properties closed a US$ 50 million deal for a residential plot of land, spanning 25.4k sq ft, (equating to US$ 1,949 per sq ft), on the Jumeirah Bay Island, also known as Billionaire Island. Located off the coast of Jumeirah and developed by Meraas Holding, the island, (in the shape of a seahorse), spans some 6.3 million sq ft. It is connected by a 300 mt bridge and is home to a mix of low-rise residences, luxury villas, a boutique resort, a world-class marina, and the prestigious five-star Bvlgari Hotel.

Morgan’s International Realty estimates that Dubai’s branded residences command a 42% premium, on average, over non-branded ones, with the former garnering US$ 896 per sq ft compared to US$ 632 per sq ft for unbranded residences. The top ten in the branded sector are Bvlgari, Atlantis Resorts, Dorchester Collection, Baccarat, Four Seasons Resorts, Armani, One & Only Resorts, Six Senses Resorts, Bugatti and The Ritz Carlton Hotel at per sq ft, US$ 2,906, US$ 2,558, US$ 2,054, US$1,965, US$ 1,861, US$ 1,563, US$ 1,405, US$ 1,329, US$ 1,276 and US$ 1,183. H2 sales of branded units surged 48.0%, on the year, to 7.6k. with the emirate housing 43.1k units in one hundred and thirty-two branded residences, with the record price being US$ 75 million. It is estimated that Dubai has 1.3k ready-branded units, valued at US$ 1.87 billion, with over 6.3k more currently under construction, worth US$ 6.78 billion. Meanwhile, Savills posts that Dubai continues to retain its leading position as the most active market internationally for branded residences, followed by Miami, New York, Phuket and London.

Land deals – comprising 2.93k transactions, (193.8% higher on the year) and valued at US$ 9.67 billion – remained buoyant in Q1. The total real estate market performed likewise in the quarter, posting its second ever highest quarterly return of US$ 8.89 billion, (30.3% higher on the year), with overall transactions totalling 45.49k – up 22.8% from Q1 2024. The record quarterly sales occurred in the previous quarter, with 50.22k sales, worth US$ 40.11 billion.

DXBinteract data indicates that shows villa sales, at US$ 11.25 billion were 43.1% higher on the year from 8.37k deals, while apartment sales jumped 12.6% to US$ 16.98 billion from 32.88k transactions. The 1.21k commercial sales were up 25.2% to US$ 981 million. The last five years have seen rising property values as shown for the Q1 median prices.

Rising property values in recent years are highlighted by annual increases in Q1 median price per sq ft from 2021 to 2025 – US$ 242, US$ 306, US$ 350, US$ 408 and US$ 426. Over the past six years, property sales have more than quadrupled:

2020 – US$ 5.72 billion 9.8k transactions
2021 – US$ 6.70 billion 11.6k transactions;
2022 – US$ 14.88 billion 20.2k transactions
2023 – US$ 24.25 billion 31.1k transactions
2024 – US$ 29.84 billion 37.0k transactions

The top five performing areas of Dubai in terms of volume in Q1 were:

Jumeirah Village Circle 3,605 transactions US$ 1.24 billion
Wadi Al Safa 3,596 transactions US$ 2.08 billion
Business Bay 2,782 transactions US$ 1.98 billion
Dubai South 2,676 transactions US$ 2.38 billion
Dubai Marina 2,583 transactions US$ 2.53 billion

Sales categorised by value indicates:

Below Dhs 1 million 19% of sales 11,899 Below US$ 272k
Dhs 1 – 2 million 31% of sales 14,242 US$ 272k – US$ 545k
Dhs 2 – 3 million 19% of sales 8,567 U$$ 545k – US$ 817k
Dhs 3 – 5 million 15% of sales 6,837 US$ 817k – US$ 1.36m
Over Dhs 5 million 9% of sales 3,939 Over US$ 1.36m

Primary sales accounted for 35% of total sales, in terms of volume, and 39% in value with the balance 65% and 39% for primary sales.

With the main aim of improving road safety, last October issued a decree, amending a number of traffic violations which include imprisonment and penalties of up to US$ 54k; last Saturday, 29 March 2025, they came into effect. Some include:

Driving under the influence fines up to US$ 2.7k/a jail term or both; licence suspension between three to six months

Driving under the influence of drugs fines up to US$ 5.4k and a jail term; repeat offenders having their licence suspended for up to a year and cancelled for third-time offenders

Fleeing an accident/failure to stop a prison term of not more than two years and/or fines ranging from US$ 1.3k to US$ 2.7k

Reckless drivers who cause death imprisoned and fined US$ 1.3k; if the accident happens

under “severe circumstances”, like driving under the influence or through flooded areas, then the penalty will be at least one year in jail and/or US$ 2.7k in fines.

Taaleem Holdings PJSC posted its H1 financial results, (ending 28 February), with double-digit growth noted for operational revenue, premium enrolment numbers and capacity by 18.2% up to US$ 178 million, by 18.8% to 3.16k and by 28.7% to 55.29k. Net profit before tax dipped 3.6% to US$ 48 million, as operating costs rose 23.7% to US$ 25 million. However, when current and deferred tax are considered, the total comprehensive income came in 15.4% higher at almost US$ 44 million. Khalid Al Tayer, Chairman of Taaleem, noted that “I am delighted to report Taaleem’s continued growth and strong performance”, and that “looking ahead to the second half of the year, I remain confident in our continued growth trajectory”, and that “we are focused on maximising the utilisation of our existing capacity while further expanding our total capacity through new schools and developments.”

Taaleem LLC is involved in management and operations of the following schools: Dubai British School, American Academy for Girls, Raha International School – Sole Proprietorship LLC, Greenfield International School, Jumeirah Baccalaureate School, Uptown International School, Dubai British Foundation Kindergarten, Dubai British School Jumeirah Park, Raha International School Khalifa-A – Sole Proprietorship LLC, Jebel Ali School, Dubai British School Jumeirah, Dubai British School Mira, Harrow International School – LLC – OPC (obtained a trade license from the Department of Economic Development to operate in Abu Dhabi).

Almost nine years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. April retail prices have declined, around 6.0% and 5.0% (for diesel), compared to March prices. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for April is as follows:

Super 98 US$ 0.700 from US$ 0.744 in Apr down 1.5% YTD US$ 0.711

Special 95 US$ 0.670 from US$ 0.711 in Apr down 1.6% YTD US$ 0.681

E-plus 91 US$ 0.649 from US$ 0.692 in Apr down 2.0% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel US$ 0.717 from US$ 0.755 in Apr down 1.8% YTD US$ 0.730

In September 2021, the country introduced the concept of ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’. Since then, there have been twenty-six agreements by the end of Q1 2025. During the previous quarter, five CEPAs have been signed with Malaysia, New Zealand, Kenya, Ukraine, and the Central African Republic. To date, six of these agreements have officially entered into force, with fourteen others having been signed and are undergoing technical and ratification procedures in preparation for implementation. The remaining six agreements have been finalised, and their signings are expected soon. The UAE is also in the final stages of CEPA negotiations with several major economies—most notably Japan—with talks expected to conclude before the end of this year. The CEPA programme continues to broaden the UAE’s trade and investment partnerships, strengthening the country’s role as a hub for open and multilateral global trade.

The CEPAs with Costa Rica, signed last April, and Mauritius came into effect on Wednesday. There are twelve deals signed and awaiting ratification, with markets around the world, consolidating its status as a trade facilitator and global gateway for goods and services. Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al-Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade, noted the CEPAs’ contribution to record non-oil trade last year, which reached an all-time high of US$ 817 billion, marking a 14.6% hike over 2023. Under the Mauritian CEPA, more than 97% of UAE exports to Mauritius will benefit from immediate tariff elimination or gradual tariff reduction over a maximum of five years, whilst Costa Rica will see 99.8% of UAE exports benefitting from zero or reduced customs duties.

For the fourth consecutive year, the latest Global Entrepreneurship Monitor ranks the UAE first globally. Out of fifty-six countries surveyed, the UAE also topped the list as the best place for entrepreneurship and SMEs, whilst excelling in eleven out of the thirteen key indicators, including entrepreneurial finance, government policies, education, and ease of market entry. GEM also highlighted the UAE’s business-friendly policies, government initiatives and competitive investment climate.

In line with its dividend policy, (which is paid out in April and October), Parkin has the right to distribute the higher of net income or free cash flow to equity. H1 payment of US$ 54 million was made, equating to US$ 0.0181 per share, whilst the H2 dividend payment of US$ 77 million, equating to US$ 0.0233 per share, will take place on 23 April. Meanwhile, starting today (04 April), Parkin will introduce its variable pricing based on peak- and off-peak usage, which will boost 2025 revenue figures, and be visible in Q2 returns. The policy will apply to all of Parkin’s public parking portfolio and to about 35% of spaces it manages on behalf of developers. The variable pricing policy – based on peak and off-peak hour usage – will take effect across 100% of Parkin’s public parking portfolio and to about 35% of spaces it manages on behalf of developers. The tariff is also based on:

Peak hours: 8am to 10am and 4pm to 8pm

US$ 1.63, (AED 6), per hour for premium parking spots.
US$ 1.09, (AED 4), per hour for all other public paid parking spaces.

Off-peak hours: 10am to 4pm and 8pm to 10pm

The tariffs remain unchanged.

The free parking status quo remains for overnight parking, Sundays, and public holidays.

Pursuant to Article 22 (2) of the Insurance Authority Board of Directors Resolution No. 15 of 2013, concerning Insurance Brokerage Regulations, the Central Bank of the UAE has revoked the licence of Dynamics Insurance Brokers. Report findings indicate that Dynamics Insurance Brokers failed to comply with the licensing terms and requirements issued by the CBUAE.

Because of the Eid Al Fitr holiday, the DFM opened the week, on Wednesday 02 April, ten points higher, (0%), the previous week, shed one hundred and fifty-nine points (3.1%), to close the trading week on 4,951 points, by Friday 04 April 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.45, closing on US$ 3.23 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.67, US$ 5.53 US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.22 US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.35. On 04 April, trading was at one hundred and eighty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-two million dollars, compared to eighty-six million shares, with a value of US$ eighty-nine million dollars, on 28 March.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 28 March at 5,110 was 1,047 points (25.8%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.52, to close on 28 March at US$ 3.68. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed March 2025 at US$ 0.67, US$ 5.53, US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.37.

By Friday, 04 April 2025, Brent, US$ 2.37 higher (2.5%) the previous three weeks, shed US$ 6.19 (9.7%) to close on US$ 65.67. Gold, US$ 25 (0.8%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 60 (2.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,024 on 04 April.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 1.82 (2.4%), to close 31 March 2025 on US$ 72.99. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of March, the yellow metal was trading at US$ 3,113 – US$ 489 (18.6%) higher YTD.

Having previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, the eight OPEC+ countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – agreed on which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023. The virtual meeting agreed to commence a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary adjustments starting from 01 April 2025, with all eight members starting a production adjustment of 411k bpd.

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority, along with European regulators, have announced that major car manufacturers and two trade bodies are to pay a total of US$ 595 million for “colluding to restrict competition” over vehicle recycling. Ten major manufacturers – BMW, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, Peugeot Citroen, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault, Toyota, Vauxhall and Volkswagen – were “caught”, whilst Mercedes Benz should have been fined but escaped because it seemed they grassed on their peers by alerting the authorities of their participation. The two trade bosies were the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association and the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders. The CMA imposed a combined penalty of almost US$ 101 million while the European Commission handed out fines totalling US$ 494 million (It was alleged that the accused had illegally agreed not to compete against one another when advertising what percentage of their cars can be recycled, as well as colluding to avoid paying third parties to recycle their customers’ scrap cars).

Last Friday, Elon Musk posted that his xAI had acquired X (formerly known as Twitter), in an all-stock transaction for US$ 45.0 billion, including debt, with a combined value of US$ 80.0 billion. AI, which was launched in 2003, recently raised US$ 6.0 billion from investors at a valuation of US$ 40.0 billion.

Hooters of America, which currently directly owns and operates one hundred and fifty-one restaurants, mainly in the US, is planning to deal with it debts by selling them to a group of two existing Hooters franchisees; a further one hundred and fifty-four are operated by franchisees. It has filed for bankruptcy in its base state, `Texas, but it has confirmed that its restaurants will stay open during the process and operate “in a business-as-usual manner”. In line with its peer casual dining chains, over recent years, it has been facing a battle of rising costs and wages, as well as customers spending less. Hooters’ chief executive, Sal Malili posted that “our renowned Hooters restaurants are here to stay,” and that “today’s announcement marks an important milestone in our efforts to reinforce Hooters’ financial foundation.” The chain, founded in 1983, is known for its serving staff, who are mainly young women – known as “Hooters Girls” – as well as its chicken wings.

In the ever growing Forbes’ latest billionaires list, (its thirty-ninth edition), Elon Musk has taken the top spot from French luxury goods titan Bernard Arnault, whose LVMH, owns brands like Louis Vuitton and Moet Hennessy. Musk was already top of Forbes’ real-time billionaires list, with his net worth climbing 75% to an estimated US$ 342.0 billion, attributable to a jump in wealth following big new valuations of SpaceX and his AI company xAI, as well as a twelve-month rise in Tesla stock. The latest list sees an additional 8.9%, (247) with a new total of 3,028 billionaires, worth US$ 16.1 trillion, but there are no women in the top ten list, dominated by tech leaders, and eight from the US, with two exceptions, one being Frenchman Arnault and his family with US$ 178 billion in fifth place. Places two to four are taken by Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Larry Ellison, worth US$ 216.0 billion, US$ 215.0 billion and US$ 192.0 billion; six to ten include Warren Buffet, Larry Page, Sergy Brin, Spain’s Amancio Ortega and Steve Ballmer, worth US$ 154.0 billion, US$ 144.0 billion, US$ 138.0 billion, US$ 96.0 billion and US$ 91.4 billion.

ABF is majority-owned by the billionaire Weston family who, until 2021, owned the department store Selfridges, and now owns Primark which this week saw the demise of its chief executive for the past fifteen years, with its share price sliding nearly 4% to US$ 24.11 after Monday’s announcement. The retailer is a key part of the wider ABF business, contributing nearly 50% of the group’s overall sales of US$ 25.87 billion. Paul Marchant resigned following an allegation by a woman about “his behaviour towards her in a social environment”. ABF’s chief executive George Weston, commented, “I am immensely disappointed. Colleagues and others must be treated with respect and dignity. Our culture has to be, and is, bigger than any one individual.” He added: “At ABF, we believe that high standards of integrity are essential. Acting responsibly is the only way to build and manage a business over the long term.” This process seemed to tick all the right boxes and should be a lesson to the likes of the BBC and the Church of England, on how to deal with senior staff who have misbehaved and have their misdemeanours covered up by the establishment.

Travis Perkins, the builders’merchant hasposted lower financial 2024 figures, with revenue 4.7% lower at US$ 5.94, a 40.3% reduction in adjusted profit to US$ 141 million and a 2024 pre-tax loss of US$ 100 million, mainly attributable to impairments, restructuring costs and the write down in the value of a number of branches. In March, and after only six months in the job, Pete Redfern, quit as CEO, “as a result of ill health” with immediate effect; on the news the company’s share value sank to its lowest level in sixteen years.

It seems that the last ever UK blast furnaces could be permanently closed within days, as its Chinese owners, Jingye, decided to cut off the crucial supply of ingredients, including coal, iron ore and other raw materials, keeping them running. The owner of Brutish Steel, which had bought the company out of receivership in 2020, having rejected a US$ 646 million offer to replace the existing furnaces with electric arc furnaces, stopped talks with the Department for Business and Trade; Jingye considered the offer too little to justify the extra investment required.

On Tuesday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation today set the exchange rates of major currencies against the rouble, including raising the US dollar exchange rate by 1.81 roubles compared to the previous day’s rate, to 85.4963 roubles, the euro by 2.77 roubles, to 92.4276 roubles, and the Chinese yuan exchange rate by 26 kopecks, to 11.7136 roubles.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Korea Republic posted its second ever highest net profit figure US$ 5.31 billion – 575% higher on the year – driven by robust income from securities trading and interest. Gross revenue was 36.5% higher at US$ 18.00 billion, with 2024 year-end assets up 11.0%, at US$ 404.73 billion, attributable to the appreciation of its foreign currency assets amid a strong dollar.

Driven by strong demand for the country’s semi-conductors, the Republic of Korea’s exports, in March, were 3.1% higher on the year – its second consecutive month of increase, driven by robust demand for semiconductors, (up 11.9% on the year to US$ 13.1 billion). The Ministry of Trade posted that March outbound shipments came in 3.2% higher, at US$ 58.3 billion, whilst imports rose at an annual rate of 2.3%, to US$ 53.3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$ 4.98 billion.

UK house prices rose 3.9% year-on-year in March, unchanged from February, according to data released by Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society. Month-on-month house prices were flat. The average house is now worth US$ 351.1k. It is forecast is that house prices will remain flat because of the April changes to stamp duty, with many buyers would have saved cash if bought before the deadline.

It does appear that LHR Airport had days earlier been warned about the “resilience” of its power supply debacle before a fire which shut down the airport. Indeed, it seems that Nigel Wicking, chief executive of Heathrow Airline Operators’ Committee, that he spoke to Heathrow twice in the week before the closure on 21 March. When speaking to MPS this week he queried why the airport was closed for so long and why it was not more prepared. He said he had spoken to the Team Heathrow director on 15 March about his concerns – six days before the fire – and the chief operating officer and chief customer officer on 19 March – two days before the fire. Speaking on behalf of the airlines that use the facility, he commented that “we expect resilience, we expect there to be the capability there and the understanding of when a power supply or an asset is not available, what will you do next, and how quickly will you bring it back?”

Monday witnessed global stock markets nosediving, whilst gold benefitted, climbing 1.2% to a record high of US$ 3,128 per oz, before nudging US$ 9 lower to US$ 3,128. With carmakers’ shares taking the brunt of the losses, Japan’s Nikkei was down 3.6%, Germany’s DAX by 1.76%, France’s CAC by 1.67% and the FTSE 100 by 1.20% – stemming from concerns that all imported cars into the US will face a 25% tariff. On Thursday, the S&P 500 plunged 4.8%, shedding roughly US$ 2 trillion in value, the Nasdaq almost 6.0% and the Dow Jones 4.0%. Earlier, in the day, the UK’s FTSE 100 share index dipped 1.5% and other European and Far Eastern markets also fell. Analysis of FTSE All World data by the investment platform AJ Bell on Thursday evening put the value of the peak losses among indices at US$ 2.2 trillion. Friday saw the FTSE 100 slump 4.95% – its biggest drop in five years. Apart from the enhanced reputation of gold being a safe haven, there was also a move into the safety of government bonds with prices rising and yields falling on benchmark German, French and US bonds, with the UK ten- year government bond dipping 1.0% to 4.66%. The 10% tariffs go into effect tomorrow, 05 April, and the higher reciprocal rates on 09 April. Describing the announcement as “Liberation Day”, Trump explained that the “reciprocal taxes” were a response to duties and other non-tariff barriers put on US goods.

With the EU expected to react to the Trump trade tariffs, by initiating their own reciprocal ‘taxes’, there are reports that the UK will not follow suit immediately. There are some analysts that forecast US will see slower growth, (or even a recession), and increasing inflation above 4.0%, thus stymieing the Fed’s aim to cut rates. The US consumer will be impacted, and their confidence levels will invariably decline, resulting in lower household spend and a fall in consumer savings. That could have a major impact in the US and globally, where US consumer spending amounts to about 10% to 15% of the world economy. There are estimates that these measures could knock 1.0% off European growth, whilst China could see a marginal 0.3%dip to 4.2%.

It seems that the UK got off lightly following the Trump tariff release figures, with a 10% levy – a lot lower than many other countries including Vietnam, China, Japan and the EU with reciprocal tariffs of 46%, 34%, 24% and 20%; they were a lot more draconian than many analysts had expected. Russia is seemingly missing from the listing. The UAE and Saudi Arabia will face a universal 10% tariff on imports, with Pakistan facing a 29% tariff while India – 26% and Philippines – 17%. The global response was almost instantaneous, equity markets and the dollar quickly headed south. Led by the likes of traders, shippers and financial institutions, the Nikkei was trading 3.3% lower, with other bourses following downward trends – FTSE 100, Dax, S&P 500, (with big consumer names such as Nike and Apple among the hardest hit), Nikkei, Dow Jones and Nasdaq by 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 3.0% and 4.0%. Both the EU and China showed their concern, with the former indicating that countermeasures were on the way, whilst the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen said they were a major blow to the world economy and said that the twenty-seven-member bloc was prepared to respond if talks with Washington failed. China has hit back by imposing a 34% tariff on US imports, with the Ministry of Commerce filing a lawsuit against the Trump administration with the World Trade Organisation. Tokyo said it was leaving all options to respond to the “extremely regrettable” duties. Although energy products have been exempted from these tariffs, Brent has fallen by almost 10%, on fears of their impact on global economic growth. The big names got a smacking from the market – with Nike, Apple, Adidas, Puma, Pandora and LVMH falling 11.0%, 9.0%, 10.0%, 9.0%, 12.0% and 5.0%. Meanwhile Harley-Davidson shed 4.5% whilst retailers Best Buy and Target were 12.0% and 9.0% lower. While stocks fell, the price of gold, which is seen as a safer asset in times of turbulence, touched a record high of US$ 3,168 before falling back.

Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary has told the Commons that the UK government is launching a consultation with businesses on how taking retaliatory tariff measures against the US would impact them and adding that he believes a deal with the US is “possible” and “favourable” but adds that the UK reserves the right to take any action it deems necessary if an agreement is not secured. He will seek the views of stakeholders until 01 May on products that could potentially be included in any tariff response, and that the government would draw up an “indicative list” of US products which the UK could tariff in response to Trump’s 10% tariff.

There are some experts who have voiced concern that if the current level of tariffs remains in place, the US consumer would buy less, (because of the higher prices) and consumer spending would be less because of the dollar value in the pocket is unchanged but the prices of goods being bought have moved higher; in short the world’s biggest shopping population will be buying less from overseas. In the likely event that other nations retaliate, with their own sanctions, US exporters will be impacted. So, it will not take long for global trade to slow, with a possible recession on the cards and those goods that used to be sold in the US have to find a new market. An unwelcome increase in ‘dumping’ is inevitable.

The country that was hit by the highest Trump tariff was tiny Lesotho, having to pay an additional 50% import tax. According to White House figures, in 2024 while the US exported less than US$ 3.0 million worth of goods to the southern African enclave, its imports from there amounted to over US$ 237.0 million; the tariff set was based on the difference between the value of imports and exports. So as far as the President is concerned, the tiny kingdom is Trump’s Little Helper!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged billionaires, business, Finance, hooters, investing, lesotho, q1-dubai-property, real-estate, stocks, trumps-tariffs | Leave a comment

Let Them Eat Cake!

Posted on March 28, 2025 by howesdubai

March 2025

As real estate prices continue to head north at a rate of knots, new suburban locations are becoming increasingly popular to fill the gap for those struggling to keep on the “affordable property ladder’’. Such areas as Lehbab, Al Aweer, and Al Marmoom, moving further out from the city’s suburbs, are starting to fill the gap where rents for apartments and villas can be had for between US$ 6.3k – US$ 9.5k and US$ 9.5k – US$ 19.9k respectively. Former “affordable communities”, including JVC, Silicon Oasis, Arjan, and Dubailand, seem to have moved up because of their popularity which has led to rents scaling higher and out of some potential tenants’ repayment levels.

Al Mueisim 1, Al Twar 1, Al Qusais Industrial 5 and Al Leyan 1 are to be the locations that will house 17k studio through to 3 B/R units as part of a government strategy to build affordable accommodation for skilled workers. It is hoped that once these affordable properties enter the market, there will be a “more substantial cooling of rental prices” but it will take a tenfold increase for some sort of equilibrium for Dubai’s property sector. Although this market is still seeing an average double-digit growth in rents, post Covid, there are some locations that may have hit their peak where rents have started to slow, as new supply comes online, easing rental pressure.

The ‘penalty’ for moving further ‘out of town’, are longer commutes, traffic and travel time, lack of infrastructure and less developed amenities, but on the flip side of the coin are more modern living, better design accommodation and a cheaper property option, knowing that the city will continue to expand ‘inland’, and at the same time increasing the value of these ‘new’ properties.

With no readily available figures for 2024, the estimate of total housing units as at the end of last year is at 860k, being 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k plus the 47k best guesstimate for last year. (In the four-year period, ending December 2023, the average annual new units were 41k). Using an 81:19 ratio for apartments:villas, this will show that there were 697k apartments and 163k villas by the end of 2024. The population at the start of 2023 was at 3.655 million, and with a net addition of 209k (5.85%) during the year, ended at 3.864 million. Assuming 5.3 persons live in a villa and 4.3 in apartments, then 864k live in villas (5.3*163k) and 2.997 million in apartments (4.3*697k); this equates to 3.861 million persons. If the 2025 population were to grow in similar manner, there would be a increase of 229k to 4.090 million. Using the same assumptions, a 50k rise in residential units will cater for 40.5k apartments (174k persons – 40.5* 4.3) and 9.5k villas, (50k persons – 9.5k * 5.3); this equates to 224k persons. On the surface, it seems that demand and supply are in equilibrium. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes etc, then there is a current inventory shortage.

In the history of foreign ownership, Dubai has seen two major property crashes. Over the period, 2002 to 2008, there was an almost quadrupling of Dubai property prices in what was a largely unregulated market that just got out of control. Dubai became one of the world’s fastest-growing cities, with the introduction of a groundbreaking Property Law (Law No. 7 of 2006), which allowed foreign nationals to purchase freehold properties in designated areas. It was open season for developers, with billions of dollars being spent on both plausible mega-projects, (including Jumeirah Garden City, Dubailand, The Lagoons, Palm Jumeirah and The World, with a cumulative cost of over US$ 208 billion), and less plausible ones such as a ski resort in the desert, a residential bubble in the sky and an underwater tennis stadium. Then by the end of 2008, the unimaginable happened and the global credit crunch hit, with Dubai at its initial epicentre. Transaction volumes slumped overnight, with almost 50% of construction projects, valued at US$ 300 billion, being either canned or put on hold.

By the beginning of 2012, Dubai’s economy, after a desperate three years, thankfully returned to some form of normality, and over the ensuing three years, average house prices soared by 21.5% a year until price growth slowed. Over the next six years, the housing market was depressed, with annual price declines in a range of 0.4% to 11.0%, (a cumulative 37.4% inflation adjusted) being posted. There were several factors behind the six years of declining prices including:

far too much inventory, especially apartments, having been built and flooding the market
DLD doubling the property registration fees to 4%
the Covid-19 pandemic scaring the market
the 2013 Federal Mortgage Cap dampening price rises
the 2018 introduction of VAT implementation which impacted home sales after three years of construction

Following the effect that the pandemic had on the housing market, 2021 saw it in recovery mode over the following two years – by 9.3% and 9.5% – and then went into overdrive. The next two years saw 20% plus increases, driven by strong demand, attributable to increased foreign interest, progressive government initiatives and a healthy domestic economy. Dubai’s all-residential property price index rose strongly by 19.46% year-on-year (15.97% inflation-adjusted) in November 2024. This followed annual increases of 20.14% in 2023, 9.53% in 2022, and 9.25% in 2021, and annual declines of 7.12% in 2020, 6.0% in 2019, and 8.56% in 2018.

The above shows that since 2002, there had been a six-year growth spurt until the GFC crash of 2008, with four years of depressed prices, until a three-year recovery restarted in 2012 to be followed by six years of a weak housing market and a four-year bounce back which is still ongoing in 2025. So, over the past twenty-two years, Dubai has witnessed a pattern of six years’ growth, (2002 – 2007), four years’ property depression, (2008 – 2011), three years’ growth, (2012 – 2014), six years’ property recession, (2015 – 2020), and four years of robust growth, (2021 -2024). Just like the global economy, Dubai’s property market is subject to cyclical events and over the past twenty-three years, there have been thirteen years of growth, (over three periods 2002 – 2007, 2012 – 2015 and 2021 – 2024) and ten years of negative growth (2008 – 2011 and 2015 – 2020).

The portents are obvious – the golden days are coming to an end, with the question being not ‘if” but ‘when’. The good news is that this time the market is in a more mature and more controlled environment than it was in 2008, when it experienced more of a crash landing, than a hard landing, with severe collateral damage. The slowdown from 2015 was much more of a softer landing and the economy was impacted but not to the same extent as the 2008 GFC. A guesstimate is that a slowdown will be noticeable early 2027, with property prices nudging lower that will benefit the economy, with more affordable, rents/prices. It will be controlled so that the market will not be flooded with surplus inventory that had been the case in 2008, and to a lesser extent in 2015.

Emirates-led Dubai Dune Properties, in collaboration with Sotheby’s International Realty, has brokered the sale of a villa, on Jumeirah Bay Island, for a record-breaking US$ 90 million. The agency, founded in 2023, is led by Emirati entrepreneur and former private banker Mohamed Ali, and aims, by the end of the year, to have one hundred team members and be ranked among the top twenty performing brokerages.

Last year, Dubai World Trade Centre welcomed an annual 7.0% increase of 2.65 million event participants, as there was a 26% growth in the number of calendar events, comprising three hundred and seventy-eight Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE), and business and consumer events. The MICE events rose 26.2% to one hundred and thirty-five, with the total number of attendees climbing 30.0% to 2.03 million; of that total, international participation at MICE surged 46.0% to over 942k attendees. Such figures will help to enhance the hopes of Dubai Economic Agenda “D33” to cement Dubai’s position as one of the top three cities for business and tourism globally.

The Global Financial Centre Index rankings, published by Z/Yen in London, sees Dubai emerging as one of the top cities globally for fintech for the first time. A total of 31.3k financial centre assessments were collected from 4.95k financial services professionals who responded to the GFCI online questionnaire. The index rates one hundred and nineteen global financial centres, combining assessments from financial professionals with quantitative data which form instrumental factors. Dubai’s overall ranking advanced to twelfth, in the latest rankings, with it becoming number one (most mentioned) financial city, and is expected to become more significant. The emirate is the only financial city in the region that appears in the top fifteen categories for being globally competitive, coming in at fifth – fintech, sixth – professional services, eighth – investment management, ninth – infrastructure, tenth – business environment, eleventh – reputation (includes laws, regulations and innovation), twelfth – human capital and thirteenth – banking/finance. Dubai was categorised as only one of eight cities in the world to be a global leader with ‘broad and deep’ capabilities across all parts of the finance industry, alongside cities including London, New York and Paris.

Dubai’s Majid Al Futtaim Group’s posted declines in both revenue and profit – by 2.0% to US$ 9.24 billion and 6.0% to US$ 681 million, the latter driven by currency devaluation, upcoming 9% corporate tax and one-off items; if UAE corporate income tax, valuation gains and impairments had been excluded, the profit would have been 18% higher. EBITDA was 1.0% higher at US$ 1.25 billion, with free cash flow 270% higher at US$ 763 million, with net debt US$ 272 million lower. Total assets came to US$ 18.75 billion and net debt-to-equity improved to 41%. A unit breakdown sees:

properties revenue – US$ 2.37 billion, up 25.0% EBITDA – up 16% to US$ 1.14 billion

phases 1 & 2 of Ghaf Woods sold out within a week

malls leasing occupancy 97%. footfall ‘remaining stable from record 2023 growth across its twenty-nine malls’

hotels the ‘newly optimised’ hotels portfolio continues to perform well

retail ‘faced a challenging but rewarding year’ for the brick-and-mortar business EBITDA – US$ 104 million

currency devaluations geopolitical tensions

expansion of discounter Supeco in Egypt

introduction of Hypermax, a new 100% owned and operated grocery brand in Jordan

early progress of its turnaround programme in the UAE

“digital business continues to go from strength to strength”

Jafza is to add a further 360k sq ft in phase 2 of its Logistics Park, with a US$ 25 million investment. It will add modern offices, customisable units, temperature-controlled warehouses, loading docks, and enhanced power capacity to support diverse industries. It is hoped that this expansion will help businesses compete globally and simultaneously drive foreign investment into Dubai. Phase 1, featuring Grade-A dry and pharma storage units, temperature-controlled warehouses, and office spaces, was fully leased before completion, with phase 2 bringing the total area of Jafza Logistics Park to over 922.5k sq ft. Jafza currently hosts 10.89k companies, from one hundred and fifty countries, supporting over 160k jobs and contributing US$ 245.5 billion in trade annually.

Since DP World is a global player, with ports and logistics operations in more than seventy countries, handling around 10% of global trade, people should listen to its chairman, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, as he warns US trading partners to take President Trump seriously on tariffs. He was talking to Sky News, as chairman of P&O Ferries’ parent company DP World about the US$ 1 billion investment in the UK last October. He indicated that he felt “discredited” by criticism from a cabinet minister, transport secretary Louise Haigh, who described P&O as a ‘rogue operator`. In 2022, the company had been widely criticised when more than seven hundred seafarers were summarily fired and replaced by largely overseas workers without consultation. Following the minister’s criticism, DP World pulled the planned US$ 1 billion investment and only relented following a personal intervention by Keir Starmer to keep his showpiece investment summit on course. The DP World supremo said the criticism was unexpected given the scale of his planned investment in the UK to make London Gateway the biggest port in the UK, adding “there was a misunderstanding. Someone, unfortunately, said something that was not what we expected. We were going to invest in infrastructure, a huge investment, and then we get the person in charge to basically discredit us. But it’s water under the bridge.”

Drydocks World, a subsidiary of DP World, has been awarded an eight-month contract for the refurbishment and life extension of the FPSO Baobab Ivoirien, by MODEC Management Services Pte Ltd. The eight-month project, on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading, will involve extensive structural enhancements, including 1k tonnes of steel renewal, 250k sq mt of tank coating, and 11.5k mt of new piping. When completed, it will give the vessel a further fifteen-year life period. FPSO Baobab Ivoirien plays a crucial role in West Africa’s offshore production, with a processing capacity of 70k bpd and 75 million cu ft of natural gas. It can also inject 100k bpd of water and store up to two million barrels of crude oil. The vessel, currently operating at the Baobab oil field, 25 km off the coast of Côte d’Ivoire, will relocate to Drydocks World’s Dubai facility for its eight-month refurbishment.

DP World has selected Mota-Engil to lead the development of its Banana Port, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The project’s first phase will feature a 600 mt quay, with annual handling capacity of 450k TEUs, along with thirty hectares of storage area. This will be followed by extending the quay wall by over two kilometres. Not only will this development strengthen the DRC’s position as a key trade hub, but it will also transform the country’s trade landscape by providing state-of-the-art infrastructure, reducing business costs, and reinforcing the DRC’s economic independence. During the development stage, it will create thousands of direct and indirect jobs. On completion it will:

give the DRC its first fully equipped maritime gateway
cut transport costs
improve trade efficiency
support local industries, from agriculture to manufacturing

Last week, Emirates Islamic successfully issued a US$ 750 million, five-year, Senior Unsecured Sukuk, at a 5.059% coupon rate, that was 2.1 times over-subscribed; 80% of the Sukuk was allocated to regional investors and the balance to international investors. The fact that over one hundred investors were interested, of which many were new, indicates the increasing recognition of Emirates Islamic among the global investor community.

The recent performance of UAE’s Islamic securities, helped by the country’s real estate boom, has given investors an average 2.5% return this year and has seen the country replace the US as the top sukuk performer in the Bloomberg benchmark for the asset class. The global sukuk index is heading for its third monthly advance, making its second-best start to a year on record. The sukuks of Emaar Properties PJSC and Aldar Properties PJSC are among the leading performers over that period.

At a shareholders’ meeting last week, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority’s general assembly, 92.2% of shareholders approved the payment of a total dividend of US$ 845 million for H2 of 2024; at the same meeting, a Board of Directors was elected for the next three years. Its chief executive, Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, noted that, “in 2024, DEWA Group delivered another year of strong performance, reporting consolidated full-year revenue of AED 30.98 billion, (US$ 844 million), EBITDA of AED 15.73 billion, (US$ 4.29 billion) and net profit after tax of AED 7.23 billion, (US$ 1.97 billion). Our consolidated annual revenue grew by 6.17%, primarily driven by rising demand for electricity, water, and cooling services,” and that “DEWA’s network now serves over 1.27 million customer accounts, and we take pride in achieving the world’s lowest electricity line losses at 2%; the world’s lowest water network losses at 4.5%; the world’s lowest Customer Minutes Lost (CML) of less than one minute per year—setting a global benchmark for reliability.”

Drake & Scull posted a US$ 1.0 billion profit last year – a marked improvement on the US$ 73 million deficit in 2023; revenue came in at US$ 28 million, with gross profit increasing to US$ 1.4 million. Most of the profit emanated from a write-back of liabilities, resulting from the Dubai construction services firm implementing a restructuring plan approved by the Dubai Court of Appeal. By the end of last year, the company had manged to cut its accumulated losses from US$ 1.36 billion to US$ 545 million, as it continues to ‘pursue legal cases to collect receivables’. Earlier in the year, it won a court case to recover US$ 41 million from its ex-CEO and another official. Drake & Scull has been awarded local contracts of over US$ 272 million and is in the throes of lining up an alliance that would possibly deliver contracts in Egypt and Saudi Arabia; there was also a recent project win in India.

There are on-going discussions which could result in the Indian billionaire Gautam Adani acquiring the Indian unit of Dubai-based developer Emaar Group at a potential enterprise value of $1.4 billion. It is reported the Adani family and Emaar are discussing the structure of a transaction, which could include an unlisted Adani unit infusing about US$ 400 million in equity. If the deal were to go through, it would enlarge Adani’s real estate portfolio in India, which covers twenty-four million sq ft of property and another sixty-one million sq ft under development. In January, the Dubai developer posted that it was in discussions with some groups in India, including Adani, about a potential sale of a stake in Emaar India Ltd which is developing residential and commercial projects in places including New Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Emaar Properties has approved a 100% dividend payout, amounting to US$ 2.40 billion, during this week’s Annual General Meeting. This was in line with the introduction of Emaar’s dividend policy, updated in December 2024.

At its Annual General Meeting, Emaar Development shareholders approved the Board of Directors’ proposal to distribute a dividend of US$ 736 million, representing 68% of the share capital. Last year, the company posted property sales of US$ 17.82 billion – 75% higher on the year – with annual increases in both total revenue – up 61.0% to US$ 5.20 billion – and net profit before tax, up 20% to US$ 2.78 billion.

Amlak Finance posted an 80.0% slump in net profit, to US$ 14 million, for the year ended 31 December 2024, with revenues, from financing and investing business activities, 10.7% higher at US$ 37 million, as total revenue dipped 23.2% to US$ 95 million. Operating costs fell 20.1% to US$ 32 million. The firm recorded a net gain of US$ 12 million (2023 – US$ 47 million) on debt settlement arrangements and was able to reduce its debt burden by US$ 65 million. During the year, it repaid US$ 141 million to financiers and an agreement was reached with the six remaining financiers on the repayment plan for the outstanding balance of US$ 265 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 24 March, two hundred and forty-eight points lower, (4.6%), the previous five weeks, gained ten points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,110 points, by Friday 28 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.03, closing on US$ 3.68 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.44 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.67, US$ 5.53 US$ 1.96 and US$ 0.37. On 28 March, trading was at eighty-six million shares, with a value of US$ eighty-nine million dollars, compared to two hundred and forty-five million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars, on 21 March.

By Friday, 28 March 2025, Brent, US$ 1.75 higher (2.5%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.62 (1.0%) to close on US$ 72.76. Gold, US$ 174 (5.9%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 25 (0.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,084 on 28 March.

In a deal worth US$ 98 million, WHSmith has agreed the sale of its UK high street business to Modella Capital who also own Hobbycraft. Although the WHSmith brand is not included in the sale, its retail outlets will be known as TG Jones meaning the two hundred and thirty-three firm’s old’s name will disappear from the high street. The high street shops employ 5k and have four hundred and eighty stores. All outlets, staff, assets and liabilities of the high street business will move under Modella Capital’s ownership. However, WH Smith will retain its brand name as a global travel retailer, operating in thirty-two countries, including at major airport locations, hospitals and railway stations in the UK. Before the sale, the retailer posted that 75% of its revenue stream and 85% of its trading profit emanated from its travel division.

In the continuing blame game, following the one day closure of LHR, that led to 1.3k flights and up to 200k passengers, being impacted, John Pettigrew, the chief executive of National Grid has claimed that the facility had enough power from other substations; he noted that there were two other substations “always available for the distribution network companies and Heathrow to take power”, and that “each substation individually can provide enough power to Heathrow.”

Thomas Woldbye, the chief executive of the London Heathrow, who earned over US$ 4.0 million last year, was at an event in Central London when the accident happened at 11pm on Thursday night. He immediately rushed to the airport and, once the size of the incident became apparent, it was decided to split the crisis management team into two “gold commands”. A decision was taken to appoint the COO, Javier Echave, in charge and it was he who decided to close the airport at 1.44am. Meanwhile, Woldbye’s team went home presumably to bed, and he resumed work at 7.30am, before arriving at his office at 9.00am. (To make matters even worse for him, it appears that the likes of Sean Doyle and Shai Weiss, BA’s and Virgin Atlantic’s chiefs, worked through the night).

Later in the morning, the CEO met with Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander who told her that “whilst there are multiple power supplies into the airport, the fire had created a very significant problem with respect to terminals two and four specifically and that there had to be some reconfiguration of power supplies into the airport. That meant all the systems had to be turned off and all the systems had to be restarted again in a safe way.”

However, it seems that a 2014 report by consultancy firm Jacobs found a “key weakness” of Heathrow’s electricity supply was “main transmission line connections to the airport”. It stated, “outages could cause disruption to passenger, baggage and aircraft handling functions”, and “could require closure of areas of affected terminals or potentially the entire airport”. It did conclude that provision of on-site generation and other measures to ensure resilient supply appeared “to be adequate” to enable Heathrow “to withstand and recover from interruptions to supply”, and that the airport operated “within risk parameters that are not excessive or unusual for an airport of its type”.

This week, a group of ninety airlines has threatened to take legal action against Heathrow Airport if it cannot reach an “amicable” settlement over the costs caused by Friday’s eighteen-hour closure. The group also commented that Heathrow’s communication was “appalling”, with airlines having to wait until midnight on Friday to get confirmation that terminal two would open the next day. It was “not justifiable given the amount of money that has been spent on Heathrow over the years and the fact that it is the most expensive airport in the world”. The airport is a private company owned by French investment group Ardian, Qatar Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund plus others.

Last year, Tesla was beaten by China’s BYD when it came to revenue with the latter surpassing US$ 107 billion – 9.7% higher on the year than Tesla’s already published 2024 figures of US$ 97.7 billion; the return was 29.0% higher on the year. Profit, at a record US$ 5.55 billion, was 34% higher on the year, with vehicle sales of 4.3 million, 40% higher on the year – and for last month, up 161% to 318k. Having been the number one EV maker in China, the largest single global market, for several years, it is looking at furthering its overseas business. It appears keen to take a bigger slice of the European EV sector, with a new compact electric model and super-fast charging capabilities to rival continental brands. (The “Super e-Platform” battery and charging system boasts peak speeds of 1k kilowatts and allows cars to travel up to 470 km after a five-minute charge). The move comes as Tesla’s sales in Europe have begun to slide for a myriad of reasons.

There is no doubt that Chinese EVs have had a head start on any of its overseas competition because of the huge amount of funds poured into the sector by state funds, so it is little wonder that the Chinee have won the race to provide cheaper, more fuel-efficient EVs over leading US and European automakers. It is reported that the EU is investigating claims that BYD’s new factory in Hungary, set to open later in 2025, has been provided with unfair subsidies from Beijing. However, BYD’s progress may be slowed somewhat by a double whammy of Donald Trump having recently imposed higher blanket tariffs on Chinese imports and growing geopolitical and trade tensions between Beijing and Western capitals may hinder BYD’s progress.

Lebanon’s erstwhile central bank supremo, Riad Salameh was the world’s longest-serving central bank governor, serving for thirty years before his ouster in July 2023, and had been labelled as the world’s worst central banker. Although he had been credited for maintaining, until 2019, the stability of the local currency, he has been accused of corruption, money laundering and running the largest Ponzi scheme in history. First vice-governor Wassim Manssouri had been acting head of the central bank since then until this week when the country’s cabinet named asset manager Karim Souaid as central bank governor. Since the country has been in economic chaos for the past five years – attributable to official mismanagement and corruption – this appointment could be a turning point in Lebanon’s history, with an urgent requirement of implementing economic reforms, demanded by the IMF and other international donors, to unlock much needed bailout funds.

Amid allegations of price gouging during the pandemic, the federal government directed the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission to investigate the supermarket sector. It found that Coles and Woolworths had increased their earnings margins in recent years, with a more significant increase at Woolworths, and also concluded they have so much power that they do not need to compete hard on price. Although it concluded that “ALDI, Coles and Woolworths appear to be among the most profitable supermarket businesses globally,” the regulator, (or the toothless watch dog), stopped short of concluding that grocery prices were “excessive”, and did not declare that the two major players in the sector have a duopoly. The report found that “while input and operational costs have increased over this time, Coles and Woolworths have maintained or increased their product margins.” It also found Woolworths and Coles had enough power to affect the market price of products from some suppliers, and that “Coles and Woolworths have limited incentive to compete vigorously with each other on price.” The ACCC posted that suppliers were under the two major supermarkets’ thumb, especially those supplying fresh produce like fruit and vegetables.

Interestingly, “Coles and Woolworths earned higher average product margins on branded products than private label products over the last five financial years,” and that “branded products’ margins also increased over this period for both supermarkets, particularly for packaged goods.” It also raised concerns that suppliers face a ‘monopsony’, where there is effectively only one buyer for their products, with “Coles and Woolworths able to exercise monopsony power in their trading relationships with many suppliers in these supply chains.” The ACCC says fresh produce suppliers are particularly affected by market concentration and that there had been cases where suppliers can face costs such as freight and promotional charges, as well as “rebates” or enforced discounts on their bills when retailers make orders, and “many suppliers say they fear retribution from raising concerns with supermarkets.”

Not surprisingly, the regulator noted that when the supermarkets acted to reduce their costs, “they have not passed on to consumers the full benefit of savings from those initiatives.” Surprise, Surprise.

Although Japan’s February core consumer prices rose 3.0% on the year, the pace of increase slowed for the first time since October 2024, attributable, to some extent, to the resumption of state subsidies for utility bills. The increase in the core consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food, was 0.2% lower than January’s 3.2% return. For nearly three years, the inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target. Meanwhile, the core- CPI, which strips out both energy and fresh food to reflect underlying price trends, increased 2.6%.

In 2024, the EU posted annual declines in imported energy products to US$ 408.77 billion, 16.2% lower, as the net mass dipped 7.1% to 720.4 million tonnes. The largest partners for EU imports of petroleum oils were the US (16.1%), Norway (13.5%) and Kazakhstan (11.5%). Three countries accounted for 73.5% of imported LNG – US, Russia and Algeria – supplying 45.3%, 17.5% and 10.7% of the total. A major part of the natural gas in gaseous state came from Norway (45.6%)., Algeria (19.3%), and Russia (16.6%).

In an attempt, to ease all-time high egg prices for the American consumer, the Trump administration is planning to import supplies from Turkey and South Korea and “we are talking in the hundreds of millions of eggs for the short term,” according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Polish and Lithuanian poultry associations have both confirmed that they had also been approached by US embassies regarding possible egg exports. Earlier it announced a US$ 1.0 billion plan to combat a raging bird flu epidemic that has forced US farmers to cull tens of millions of chickens. Over the past twelve months, the cost of eggs has surged more than 65%, with a further 41% hike expected in 2025. The government official also confirmed that “when our chicken populations are repopulated and we’ve got a full egg laying industry going again, hopefully in a couple of months, we then shift back to our internal egg layers and moving those eggs out onto the shelf. ” Last month, her department also unveiled a US$ 1 billion, five-point plan to tackle the price of eggs, with US$ 500 million for biosecurity measures, US$ 100 million for vaccine R&D, and US$ 400 million for farmer financial relief programs. It will also provide commercial egg farms with best practices and consulting services for free and pay up to 75% of the costs to address vulnerabilities to help prevent the spread of bird flu.

This week, the US administration announced that it would introduce a 25% tariff on all cars, and car parts, being imported into the US. Later, US President Donald Trump said he may cut tariffs on China to help seal a deal for short video app TikTok to be sold by its owner ByteDance, adding that, “maybe I’ll give them a little reduction in tariffs or something to get it done,” It is currently facing a 05 April deadline to find a non-Chinese buyer of the platform. In 2023, former President Joe Biden had cited security concerns for signing an order that TikTok, valued at billions of dollars, should not be in Chinese hands and if a suitable new owner could be found then it would be closed. The major problem to finalising a deal to sell the TikTok business has always been securing Beijing’s agreement.

With over one thousand, one hundred F-35s, having been built since 2006, the forty-seventh US President has awarded a multi-billion-dollar order to Boeing to launch the US Air Force’s most advanced fighter jet, the Next Generation Air Dominance aircraft, to be known as the F-47; sixteen global militaries still have F-35s in service. Donald Trump described it the “most lethal aircraft ever built” and said a version has been secretly flying for the last five years. The design of the “sixth generation” aircraft remains a closely guarded secret, but reportedly includes high advanced sensors and engines, in addition to their stealth capabilities; Lockheed Martin’s F22 will be retired in the early 2030s. The Boeing deal also marks a defeat for competitor Lockheed Martin, which was recently eliminated from a separate competition to build a next-generation aircraft for the US Navy.

With tensions mounting with many countries, because of threatened tariffs, sales of the company’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, a fifth-generation aircraft, could also be impacted. For example, both Canada and Portugal have already taken action – the former, with Mark Carney requesting his Defence Minister to review its purchase of the aircraft, which was developed with Canada as a partnership; the latter country’s outgoing defence minister is re-thinking a purchase of F-35s to replace its older aircraft, as a result of “recent positions” taken by the US government. Other countries are now considering purchases from European manufacturers, such as Dassault and Saab, even if those aircraft lack the stealth capabilities of the F-35.

In another blow to the struggling UK economy, Astra Zeneca has announced a US$ 2.5 billion investment to set up its sixth global strategic R&D centre in Beijing, as well as signing research and manufacturing agreements. In January, the UK’s biggest pharmaceutical company had already scrapped plans to expend US$ 581 million on expanding its vaccines plant in Liverpool. And last week, Tom Keith-Roach, AstraZeneca’s UK president, told MPs that the UK really was an “outlier now” as one of the most difficult places in the world to bring new medicines to patients. Its chief executive, Pascal Soriot said the investment reflected the “extensive opportunities that exist for collaboration and access to talent, and our continued commitment to China”. The company is facing some difficulties in China including the fact that Leon Wang, who was its China president, had been arrested in Shenzhen as part of an unknown investigation. It also revealed then that about one hundred former employees had been sentenced for alleged medical insurance fraud, dating back to 2021, relating to its Tagrisso cancer drug, and that Chinese authorities were also pursuing a separate investigation into the alleged illegal importation of unapproved medicines from Hong Kong. In February, it was warned that it faced enquiries about suspected unpaid import taxes of US$ 900k, which has been taken up by prosecutor’s office. It is hoped that the presence of its chief executive, who has been invited to join a Beijing international business leaders advisory council, will help the company avoid severe penalties from the investigations.

Since the arrival of the Labour administration, in July, the UK economy has seen little growth which had grown faster than initially estimated in H1 at 1.4% – 0.9% in Q1 and 0.5% in Q2. Q3 and Q4 saw zero growth and 0.1%. After the revisions, the ONS said the UK economy expanded by 1.1% in 2024, up from 0.9%.

The Financial Conduct Authority has fined the London Metal Exchange US$ 12.0 million, citing its failure to ensure it had adequate controls and its lack of systems and controls; this was the first enforcement action taken by the FCA against a UK-recognised investment exchange. This resulted in chaotic trading in the exchange’s nickel market in 2022, particularly in relation to volatility detection, In one day, 08 March 2022, the price of a three-month nickel futures contract more than doubled to over US$ 100k on the LME, with wild swings in the price of nickel and “undermined the orderliness of and confidence in the LME’s market”. The exchange suspended its nickel market for eight days, following “extreme volatility” over the four days to 08 March 2022. During the market’s Asian trading hours, between the hours of 1am and 7am, relatively junior staff, not properly trained to see the extraordinary swings and their bearing on the market, meant that this was not passed on to senior management at the LME; even worse, these staff took the decision to accommodate the price rises by disabling some controls which led to the price of the nickel futures contract increasing “much more quickly than would otherwise have been possible”. The financial watchdog noted that “the LME should have been better prepared to address the serious risks posed by extreme volatility,” and that “the LME swiftly implemented market enhancements. We fully recognise the important work the FCA continues to undertake in strengthening oversight of the OTC market.”

The Chancellor has also intimated that there may be changes in UK taxes on big tech firms, such as Meta and Amazon, and that talks are “ongoing” about tweaks to the Digital Services Tax; any changes would be part of a deal to avoid the ongoing round of Trump tariffs. When introduced in 2020, the 2% levy contributed to just over US$ 1.0 billion, and there are suggestions that this could be amended if the US did not impose the import tax on the UK. Rachel Reeves commented that “we want to make progress. We do not want to see British exporters subject to higher tariffs”, adding that “the US is “rightly concerned about countries that have large and persistent trade surpluses with the US. The UK is not one of those countries. We have balanced trade between our countries”.

There were not too many surprises in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. As expected, she took a knife to day-to-day government spending by slashing it by US$ 7.89 billion in 2028 – 2029, with the welfare budget reduced by less than originally thought by US$ 4.40 billion, as she tightened the eligibility criteria for PIP and scrapped the work capability assessment for Universal Credit. However, damage was done, as it was estimated that some 3.2 million families will lose an average US$ 2.23k by 2029 – 2030. She also announced a 4.1% hike in the state pension triple lock from next month, a US$ 2.60 billion investment in social and affordable housing and US$ 776 million to train up 60k new construction workers. There will be an additional US$ 2.85 billion in defence spending, whilst UK Export Finance will see US$ 2.60 billion of increased capacity “to provide loans for overseas buyers of UK defence goods and services”. By cutting overseas aid to 0.3% of GDP, it is expected there will be savings of US$ 3.36 billion. She also announced planning reforms, including the re-introduction of mandatory housing targets and utilising ‘grey belt’ land into scope for development; this should see 1.3 million new homes being built over the next five years.

People in glass houses should not throw stones is a common saying but the Labour Party is still learning the lesson. It seemed that as soon as it entered into power after last July’s election, it was enmeshed in numerous incidents involving clothes, glasses, and football tickets. Gift donors and businesses were falling over themselves to enamour themselves with the new government. At the time, it appeared that just about every cabinet minister wound up at Taylor Swift’s Eras tour without paying. Even then, Rachel Reeves was in on the act admitting that she had accepted a cash donation from Juliet Rosenfield for her campaign wardrobe and now a week before her Spring Statement, she is found to have accepted free tickets, worth US$ 1k, to see Sabrina Carpenter at London’s O2. The lady, who earns US$ 118k as an MP, (and going up soon) and over US$ 87k, for being Chancellor, cited security reason for her misdemeanour, with her boss saying he “supports all his ministers making their own judgements” when it comes to accepting gifts”. Probably a bad idea in the week when she had to announce massive spending cuts, and not helped by Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, who told a reporter that she was too busy to accept things like free concert tickets. Maybe the word from the Prime Minster should be Let Them Eat Cake!

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Forever Young!

Posted on March 21, 2025 by howesdubai

Forever Young! 21 March 2025

KeyMavens Real Estate Development launched Montage – The Al Jaddaf – Dubai’s first urban residentia resort, set for completion in 2027. Engel & Völkers Middle East will oversee sales and marketing for the project, which includes one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments. It is set for completion in 2027. The project comprises one and two-bedroom apartments, with Portola, a full-floor sanctuary of unparalleled experiences, outdoor pools surrounded by lush urban forests to immersive indoor wellness retreats. Oher features include a welcoming luxury lobby/ lounge, fitness centre, pool & deck retreat, ice room, cold plunge therapy, oxygen room, 180-degree relaxation room, Himalayan salt room, lagoon-style children’s pool, virtual reality room, urban forest and red-light therapy.

So far this year, the five leading nations, when it comes to purchasing Dubai real estate, are India, UK, Italy, Russia and Pakistan, as the local market continues to attract a diverse global audience. Betterhomes noted that Italian and Egyptian sales rose by 22% and a very impressive 150%. The consultancy added, “this year, we’ve seen a clear shift in buyer demographics, with a significant rise in Egyptian and Italian investors. Many of our Egyptian clients are seeking stability amid currency fluctuations, while Italians are drawn to Dubai’s tax advantages and luxury lifestyle. It’s not just about buying property – it’s about securing their future in a globally recognised market”

This week, the Dubai Land Department launched the pilot phase of the ‘Real Estate Tokenisation Project’. This initiative is set to digitise property transactions by converting real estate assets into blockchain-based digital tokens, significantly enhancing transparency, efficiency, and accessibility in real estate investment. Following the pilot phase, DLD will conduct a comprehensive evaluation to refine the project before full-scale implementation. It is expected that by 2033, this advanced technology, the first introduced in the ME region, will account for 7% of Dubai’s realty sector, valued at US$ 16.35 billion. This project was developed in collaboration with the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority andDubai Future Foundation through SandBox Real Estate. The Real Estate Tokenisation Project is designed to:

expand investment opportunities by allowing multiple investors to co-own a single property through tokenised assets
attract global technology firms to the UAE’s real estate market
strengthen Dubai’s position as a leading hub for virtual assets and digital economy
enhance transparency and governance, ensuring secure and efficient real estate transactions
support innovation by integrating advanced blockchain solutions into Dubai’s property sector

UAE’s Rove Hotels has been named the official partner for Dubai Airshow 2025 that will take place over five days from 17 – 21 November 2025. The first Rove hotel opened at Downtown Dubai in 2016, and the brand now has over 6.5k rooms open.

With the triple aims of strengthening the country’s judicial system, developing the country’s indicators related to the rule of law and enforcement of justice, and achieving effective justice based on the concepts of partnership and integration, the federal cabinet has approved executive regulations for the law regulating the legal profession and legal consultation profession. Its specifications include the conditions for:

transferring a lawyer from the roll of lawyers practising before the courts of first instance and appeal to the roll of lawyers practising before the Federal Supreme Court

practical training for trainee lawyers and the obligations of the lawyer supervising the training, along with the regulations for licensing non-national lawyers to practise law in the UAE

registering researchers and legal advisors, including the regulations for deleting and re-registering a researcher or legal advisor, as well as the powers of legal advisors

establishing the register of law and legal consultation firms and the procedures for licensing, suspension, deletion, and liquidation thereof, as well as the regulations for the equivalency of university qualifications

Furthermore, Emirati lawyers and legal consultants may establish professional companies individually or in partnership with international law firms after obtaining the necessary approvals from the competent authorities, provided that these firms have been established for at least fifteen years and have branches or companies in at least three other jurisdictions.

The World Happiness Report 2025, published by Gallup, sees the UAE climbing to twenty-first, ahead of the likes of the UK, the US, Germany, France, Singapore, and all Arab countries, but behind Finland (number one for the eighth consecutive year), Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Iceland; at the other end of the scale comes Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Lebanon, Malawi and Zimbabwe. The Happiness Index is based on a three-year average of quality-of-life assessments across different nations. The UAE ranks:

sixteenth globally for donating money, reflecting its culture of generosity
nineteenth for volunteering time, reinforcing its commitment to social welfare
twelfth in the world for believing a stranger would return a lost wallet, showcasing strong societal trust
sixty-seventh for helping a stranger, indicating an area for improvement

The study noted that the UAE consistently ranks high due to its economic stability and giving culture, which are closely linked to happiness, and that UAE’s strong job market, economic growth, and high living standards have contributed to increased happiness levels, with 2025 declared the ‘Year of Community’ to further strengthen social bonds.

A recent survey by Perspectus found that UAE professionals work an average of seven extra unpaid hours per week, raising concerns about work-life balance and employee well-being. Some alarming statistics see 90% of employees responding to work emails and calls outside official working hours, a high 59% struggling to disconnect from work when at home and 76% saying that the work-life balance has become more skewed since the pandemic. The fact that employees are working harder should be a wake-up call for employers, particularly if they want to retain happy and motivated staff. Psychologists suggest that reducing work hours could significantly improve employees’ mental and physical well-being, reinforcing the need for companies to strike a better balance between productivity and employee health.

Additional insights from the survey show that:

55% of employees feel that working beyond official hours is an unspoken expectation
43% worry that if they do not put in extra time, someone else will
33%of respondents said their boss directly told them to work harder
while 34% of employees feel loyal to their company, they do not believe their employer reciprocates that loyalty

With National Central Cooling Company, a 51% shareholder, and Dubai Holding Investments, with the balancing stake, a concession agreement has been signed to provide district cooling services for Palm Jebel Ali. The major shareholder, also known as Tabreed, is 82% owned by sovereign investor Mubadala (42%) and the French low-carbon energy and services company ENGIE (40%), This structure is designed to optimise cooling capacity, enhance information-sharing and strengthen customer protection, while ensuring sustainable cooling solutions for this transformative development. The project is expected to cost US$ 409 million, with construction work expected to start in Q2; the first cooling services is expected to be delivered by 2027.

It seems that every other week a new CEPA is announced, with news that Tunisia is the latest to enter into negotiations with the UAE. The triple aims of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are to strengthen bilateral trade and investment, by reducing tariffs and trade barriers, improving market access, and creating new investment pathways across key sectors. The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi noted that Tunisia is a valuable trade partner, with non-oil trade topping US$ 350 million – 7.7% higher compared to last year; the UAE is Tunisia’s top trade partner in the GCC region. A CEPA paves the way for new opportunities for JVs, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing and renewable energy sectors. To date, an impressive twenty-six CEPAs have been finalised which is one of the reasons why the country’s 2024 total trade reached an all-time high of $816 billion – 14.6% higher on the year.

The UAE General Civil Aviation Authority has unveiled the region’s first national regulation, ‘CAR Airspace Party Uspace’, dedicated to certifying air navigation service providers for unmanned aircraft. This has been introduced because of the need to set up a robust protocol for entities looking to deliver air navigation services for drones. It will ensure that drone navigation will be able to immediately operate into the existing aviation ecosystem, while ensuring a safe and efficient airspace. It will also encompass all the other variables that will impact the running of this relatively new form of flying. This will include contracting, training, quality assurance, safety protocols, future planning, auditing, and certification.

Last year, National Bonds distributed US$ 160 million in returns to sukuk holders who had invested US$ 4.31 billion by the end of last year – a 22.5% annual increase. Some savers earning up to 4.75%, while the overall average return rate stood at 4.02%. 2024 also witnessed a 51% increase in the number of regular savers, highlighting the growing demand for structured savings plans in the community. There was also a 41% 2024 hike in digital savings. National Bonds continues its low-to-medium risk strategy to ensure capital protection, with an investment spread of:

up to 20% bank deposits
30% – 40% fixed income assets
10% – 12% listed equities
8% private equity
20% real estate

In 2024, National Bonds became one of the first companies to offer end-of-service benefits programmes, in partnership with the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation. The firm has also an annual rewards programme, valued at almost US$ 10 million, along with other tangible incentives, aims to inspire a disciplined saving culture.

A resolution, to make it easier for free zone businesses to expand their mainland operations, has been issued by Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid. All that is required for any free zone company that wishes to avail of this service is to obtain the necessary permits from the Department of Economy and Tourism. It is expected that this initiative will also create a more dynamic and efficient business environment, drive job creation and innovation, as well as fostering a competitive economy. All establishments, operating outside the free zone and within Dubai when this resolution takes effect, must comply with its provisions within one year from its effective date.

Following yesterday’s US Federal Reserve’s announcement, to maintain the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances as is, the Central Bank of the UAE followed suit and decided not to change the 4.40% Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at fifty bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities. The Base Rate signals the general stance of monetary policy and provides an effective floor for overnight money market interest rates in the UAE.

This week, Nasdaq Dubai welcomed its latest listing – a US$ 1 billion ten-year unsecured sukuk at a rate of 5.038%, by the Government of Ras Al Khaimah; this brought the bourse’s total value of sukuk to over US$ 92.7 billion, resulting in the value of debt securities, currently listed on Nasdaq Dubai, to US$ 136.2 billion across one hundred and fifty-seven issuances. Fitch Ratings has forecast a robust UAE debt capital market this year, expecting its value to top US$ 400 billion over the next few years. This will be achieved by several drivers, including funding diversification, upcoming debt maturities, infrastructure financing, regulatory reforms, and the Dirham Monetary Framework implantation.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 17 March, two hundred and seven points lower, (4.0%), the previous four weeks, shed forty-one points (0.8%), to close the trading week on 5,100 points, by Friday 21 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.15 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.08, closing on US$ 3.65 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.46 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.44 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.36. On 21 March, trading was at two hundred and forty-five million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars, compared to dollars two hundred and ten million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and two million dollars, on 14 March.

By Friday, 21 March 2025, Brent, US$ 0.19 higher (5.8%) the previous week, gained US$ 1.56 (2.2%) to close on US$ 72.14. Gold, US$ 149 (5.2%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 25 (0.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3.109 on 21 March.

The latest Post Office Travel Money study, offering the best value for money for UK holiday makers, ranked Portugal’s Algarve the cheapest out of forty-six destinations surveyed. The analysis compared prices for eight typical tourist items and discovered the Algarve offers significantly lower prices than many other spots. It found that a cup of filter coffee cost just US$ 1.64, a 200ml bottle of suncream – US$ 6.58 – and a three-course evening meal for two with a bottle of house wine – US$ 52.20. These compared to the most expensive destination, New York, where the three items cost US$ 4.88, US$ 10.54 and US$ 166.02 – more than triple the cost found in Portugal. Overall, prices for UK visitors to the Algarve dipped 1.6% on the year, driven by the low cost of meals and drinks, and an annual 1.8% rise in the value of the pound against the euro. Other locations offering value to UK tourists include Cape Town, Tokyo and Bali. Interestingly, it was noted that in over half of the destinations surveyed, there were declines in prices on the year, with the sharpest fall noted being Dominican Republic’s 26.5%.

Your morning coffee may become a little more expensive, with latest reports showing that world prices rose 38.8% on the previous year’s average, to attain a multi-year high in 2024. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, the main driver was inclement weather, affecting key producing countries. The FAO noted that last December, Arabica, the higher quality coffee favoured in the roast and ground coffee market, was selling 58% higher on the year, while Robusta, used mainly for instant coffee and blending, was 70% higher in real terms. These latest figures showed that the price differential between the two coffee varieties had narrowed for the first time since the mid-1990s. The FAO warns that the price may rise even further this year for a stack of reasons, including the possibility of further significant supply reductions, along with adverse weather in Brazil, reduced output in Indonesia, and limited export quantities from Vietnam, where farmers are replacing their coffee crops with durian to cash in on this emerging market; the country’s durian market share in China almost doubled between 2023 and 2024, and some estimate the crop is five times more lucrative than coffee.

According to figures, Brazil and Vietnam account for nearly 50% of world coffee production, with global coffee production, which in 2023 topped eleven million tonnes valued at over US$ 20 billion annually; the global coffee industry generates over US$ 200 billion in annual revenues. The value of total coffee trade is estimated at over US$ 25 billion per year. In 2023, coffee export earnings accounted for 33.8% of total merchandise exports in Ethiopia, 22.6% in Burundi, and 15.4% in Uganda. The largest coffee importers were the EU and the US.

Earlier in the year, talks between Nissan and Honda would have resulted in the creation of a mega US$ 62.13 billion car giant. This week, there are reports that the former is to cease negotiations. It was only last November, the carmaker had ended a twenty-five-year alliance with Renault, (which had reduced its equity in the alliance), and Mitsubishi, amid warnings that it would have just fourteen months to survive without a partner. It seems that the breaking point this time was that Nissan did not want to be a Honda subsidiary, indicating that control could have been a contentious issue. If it had borne fruition, the new alliance would have created the third-largest global car manufacturer and helped both companies have a stronger chance of competing against the growing number of Chinese car brands in export markets. Honda has released a statement, insisting there are no plans to end discussions between the two companies. There is no doubt that Nissan will be on the lookout for a new partner, with one possibility being Taiwan’s Foxxconn, the world’s largest producer of contract electronics. Such a deal would see the tech company helping to develop fully electric models, such as future generations of the Leaf hatchback.

Volkswagen saw a marginal 1.4% decrease in 2024 sales, to 4.8 million vehicles, attributable to a sluggish economy and strong competition. Strangely, China was the German car maker’s biggest source market where it sold nearly 2.2 million vehicles. Its revenue stream nudged US$ 2.6 billion higher to US$ 356.4 billion. However, their best-selling item was currywurst – a sliced German sausage, covered with ketchup and curry. Volkswagen sold around 8.5 million currywurst sausages during 2024 – a 200k increase compared to twelve months earlier. VW is not the only carmaker doing a sideline – Peugeot has produced a wide range of salt, pepper and coffee grinders.

Volkswagen AG’s Audi posted that it will lose as many as 7.5k positions (about 14% of its German workforce), by 2029, as its margins begin to head south; these retrenchments will not impact actual factory workers. The move to slash spending is to make the carmaker more competitive, with 2024 deliveries declining by 12%, as it struggled to gain traction in markets such as China. Over this five-year period, it plans to invest up to US$ 8.7 billion to introduce new cars to better compete in the US and China. By the end of 2026, the plan will also include introducing ten new models to the US market to try and regain the 14% slump in 2024 sales. It is also adding ten new plug-in hybrid vehicles, by the end of this year, amid slowing demand for its fully electric models. It has already started making its Audi Q6L e-tron electric SUVs in China, with local partner, FAW, and will make additional cars there for local customers from mid-2025. Its parent company, VW, is planning to ditch 35k from its payroll, whilst Porsche AG plans to cut 1.9k positions as it contends with muted luxury demand in the key Chinese market.

Having raised a further US$ 1.0 billion in new equity financing, Elon Musk’s social network X now has a market cap of some US$ 32.0 billion – almost the same as in 2022 when he took the company private. Some of the new financing could be used to pay down its remaining debt. At the time of the buyout its debt was at US$ 12.5 billion. It was not known who invested in this latest round but it appears that Elon Musk did participate. He is known for utilising the private markets to back some of his enterprises; these include SpaceX, which completed a tender offer valuing the startup at about US$ 350 billion, and xAI, which is said to have canvassed investors about raising fresh funding at a valuation of US$ 75 billion.

There are also concerns about the state of Tesla’s finances after reports that board members and top executives, have recently been offloading their shares, valued at over US$ 100 million, including Elon Musk’s brother, Kimbal. Reports indicate that Tesla shares have lost more than 50% of their value, equivalent to more than US$ 800 billion off its market cap.

Google has agreed to settle a Californian lawsuit after a former employee, in 2011, said workers from Hispanic, Latino, Native American and other backgrounds started on lower salaries and job levels than their white and Asian counterparts. The tech giant agreed to pay US$ 28 million but rejected the allegations made against it. Earlier this year, Google joined a growing list of US firms that are abandoning commitments to principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in their recruitment policies. Meta, Amazon, Pepsi, McDonald’s, Walmart and others have also rolled back their DEI programmes.

On Tuesday, Apple posted that it would buy the Israeli-based Wiz for about US$ 32 billion which would be the tech giant’s biggest ever acquisition, as it starts to focus on cybersecurity in the cloud-computing race against Amazon.com and Microsoft. This deal will enable Google to solve fast-growing cybersecurity solutions that companies use to remove critical risks. Google has fallen behind Microsoft Azure for enterprise customers, and to catch up it needs to enhance a deeper suite of services, including security software. Alphabet shares have slumped 13% YTD, exacerbated by its heavy spending, as against the rise of China’s lower-cost DeepSeek. Only last year, Wiz rejected a US$ 23.0 billion bid by the US tech giant. Wiz has agreed to a termination fee of more than 10%, one of the highest fees in MA history. Under the Biden regime, there was a tightening up in antitrust policies, with the sector hoping for a marked easing on big MA regulation. However, Trump has already indicated that he would continue heavy scrutiny on Big Tech. Indeed, so as to head off regulatory concerns, Google has emphasised that Wiz would continue working with competing cloud platforms.

In the US, Starbucks has been hit with a damages award of US$ 50 million after a delivery driver needed skin grafts after being burned, when hot tea was spilled over him at a California drive-through. It is claimed that an employee did not wedge the scalding-hot tea firmly enough into a takeaway tray. The incident took place five years ago, with the prosecution lawyer noting that “this jury verdict is a critical step in holding Starbucks accountable for flagrant disregard for customer safety and failure to accept responsibility.” Starbucks said it sympathised with the victim but plans to lodge an appeal, believing the “the damages awarded to be excessive”.

Last Monday, US$ 5.72 billion was wiped off the market caps of Tesco, (down 15%), Sainsbury’s, (9%) and Marks & Spencer, (10%), after the new executive chairman of rival Asda had posted that the grocer was planning its biggest price cuts this century. Allan Leighton, who was appointed last November, was reported to have said that there was a “war chest” available to Asda and indicated he was prepared to “materially” forego profits in the short term to win back market share. He added that “we have a long way to go. We’re three months into what is going to be three years of really getting the basics of the business right and getting the business to outperform the rest of the industry on a like-for-like basis. That’s what restores our market share and profitability.”

Indeed, Leighton has history and knows the market inside out – and hence the Monday fall-out. In the early 1990s, he, and the current M&S chairman, Archie Norman, rescued Asda from collapse before selling the business to US giant Walmart in 1999. By 2003, Asda occupied the number two slot, taking that position from Sainsbury’s but after Walmart insisted on preserving margins, it was inevitable that the only way for the retailer was down, with Sainsbury’s soon returning to its former second position. By 2019, there was a merger attempt with Sainsbury’s which was soundly rejected by the competition watchdogs. Then their troubles really started with Walmart offering a majority shareholding to TDR Capital, founded by the billionaire brothers – Mohsin and Zuber Issa – who had made their fortunes from petrol forecourts. Asda then began to lose its market share, as it had taken on debt during the takeover and had lost its competitiveness. Tesco and Sainsbury’s made good of the opportunity, as did Aldi and Lidl to a lesser extent. After appointing several managers to run the business, unsuccessfully as it turned out, TDR Capital bought out in June last year to take a majority 67.5% stake while Mohsin Issa, who retains 22.5% of the business, relinquished the day-to-day running of the business.

Over the Christmas period, Asda was the worst-performing supermarket but within weeks it announced a ‘Big Jan Price Drop’ price-cutting campaign which saw average price reductions of 26% on selected products. Following that, the chief executive reintroduced the ‘Rollback’ price-cutting promotions he and Mr Norman introduced in the 1990s in a bid to revive the spirit of the old ‘That’s Asda Price’ campaigns, complete with shoppers patting their back pockets, backed by heavy newspaper and television advertising. Asda was able to punch above its weight by features such as big, well-targeted price cuts, snappy advertising and excellent product availability. This latest initiative introduces a wider than normal price cutting exercise than has been seen in the past. He has also expended US$ 56 million on extending opening hours for some stores and has also bolstered his management team. Whether Leighton can spread the same magic he performed in the 1990s, over thirty years ago, remains debateable, as the retail environment has been turned on its head since then; even the likes of discounters Aldi and Lidl had a miniscule market presence.

Further problems that will hit the sector in the coming weeks is the 01 April increase in the national living wage and the 1.2% rise in employers’ national insurance contributions, to 15.0%, will spill over resulting in increased costs for the supermarkets, including payrolls and supplies; some of these costs will inevitably fall on the consumers. The British Retail Consortium estimates that food price inflation is picking up in staples such as eggs, milk and butter and that it will top 4.0% by the beginning of H2. Further problems will be the cost of implementing new recycling regulations due in October.

News this week that Santander bank plans to make seven hundred and fifty redundant and close 21.4% of its branches which would leave three hundred and forty-nine branches open; of that total, thirty-six will operate on reduced hours branches and eighteen will be “counter-free”. The bank justifies this move by claiming that financial transactions completed in branches have fallen 61% since 2019, while the use of internet banking to open accounts and conduct banking surged. With the closures, Santander said 93% of the UK population will continue to be within ten miles of a Santander branch, and that closing branches are all within one mile of the nearest Post Office. It also indicated that its customers can conduct banking in eleven thousand Post Office branches nationwide and one hundred and twelve banking hubs.

It is reported that Burger King UK, backed by the private equity firm Bridgepoint, is opening talks with lenders about major refinancing of US$ 51.67 million of borrowing and US$ 142.13 million borrowing capacity to help finance the delivery of its business plan. The fast food eatery owns about 50% of its six hundred UK outlets, with the balance run by franchisees. Bridgepoint has already committed US$ 45 million of fresh equity, as part of Burger King UK’s business plan, as the company plans to open thirty new restaurants and remodel fifty of its current portfolio.

New research by Pagefield indicated that UK businesses are increasingly turning to the ME as a prime investment destination, that has seen the number of business leaders, with interest in the region, doubling over the past five years; more than 36% of them consider the ME as a key investment hub. Despite this increase, Europe maintains its leading position, whilst Asia is fast becoming a hot spot with interest 10% higher to 32%. Investment in the US remains steady, hovering around the 40% mark (42% current vs. 45% prospective investors), but new trade tariffs, under President Trump’s administration, pose uncertainty, potentially deterring future deals. A striking 83% of UK firms say the Government must do more to support international expansion, with nearly a third (31%) identifying Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as the single most important mechanism. Perhaps ministers could travel to Dubai to see how successful UAE CEPAs (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements), have been.

A North Dakota court has ordered Greenpeace to pay Energy Transfer US$ 667 million in damages including for defamation, trespassing and conspiracy, in their role in the 2016-2017 protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline. The Texas-based pipeline company accused the advocacy group of paying protesters to disrupt construction of the pipeline unlawfully and spreading falsehoods about the controversial project. Greenpeace will appeal the decision, denying wrongdoing and calling the case an attack on free speech rights. T

It is reported that UAE developers have invested over US$ 3.0 billion in The Maldives, with the aim of transforming part of the iconic archipelago into luxury real estate resorts. Although the country does not allow freehold ownership, per se, foreign investment in island property is permitted requiring approval of the Ministry of Tourism. The investment is expected to transform the island nation into a vibrant second-home market for the ultra-wealthy, with potential returns of 20% being touted.

In the first two months of the year, China’s value-added industrial output rose 5.9% on the year whilst industrial output, (which measures all enterprises with an annual turnover of US$ 2.8 million plus), came in 0.51% higher last month.

Last week, SW Queensland was cleaning up after ex-tropical cyclone Alfred, had wrought its damage. Now most of the population are in another battle – not against the elements but against the insurers. Probably for the first time in Australian political history, the leaders of both the Labour ruling party, Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, and the Coalition’s, Peter Dutton, both agreed that insurers are “ripping off” Australians. Unfortunately, neither party has announced a policy to address the issues in the insurance sector, but Albanese did confirm that his government will hold insurers to account as they begin to receive flood claims.

There are reports that flood cover has tripled in parts of SW Queensland in the past two years, and already the SW Regional Organisation of Councils has taken their concerns to the Insurance Council of Australia. One such family has seen their insurance premium from US$ 2.21k to US$ 8.54k and has decided to take the risk of no insurance because otherwise it would be unable to make house payments; many other families are in the same situation. Local member for Maranoa and Nationals leader David Littleproud said, “something’s not right”, and “I think insurance companies are having a lend of us.” He also queried that “we need to make sure these insurance companies are not gaming the system at regional Australia’s expense because they simply don’t see the mass market here for them.”To many, insurance costs have skyrocketed and now it has become a luxury expense, rather than a necessity. The Insurance Council of Australia, trying to justify their position, noted that the increasing cost of insurance was due to the “escalating costs of natural disasters, the increasing value of homes … [as well as] inflation pushing up building repair costs and the increasing cost of reinsurance”.

As expected, and for the second consecutive month, the US Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady, with its key lending rate at between 4.25% – 4.5%. Noting a marked rise in economic uncertainty, it did expect slower growth this year, along with higher inflation, driven by Trump’s trade tariffs which has also resulted in nervous financial markets. There are fears that such actions could hamper the Fed in its aims to bring inflation down to its long-term 2.0% target, while maintaining a healthy labour market. It also pencilled in a further two rate cuts before the end of 2025.

The EC has introduced new measures to sustain and expand Europe’s industrial capabilities in the steel and metals sectors. Its Steel and Metals Action Plan has targeted enhancing the sector’s competitiveness and securing its future. The two sectors are facing challenges arising from high energy costs, global competition, and the need for investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It has been estimated that the steel and metals industry is essential to the EU economy, directly and indirectly employing approximately 2.6 million people and contributing around US$ 86.57 billion to the bloc’s GDP.

The OECD’s 2025 growth projection has been cut by 0.2% to 3.1% commenting that “with higher barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending”. Its projection was mainly based on weaker expected growth in the US and the eurozone, with inflation “to be higher than previously expected”. It has cut US growth by 0.2% to 2.2% this year and 0.6% lower in 2026 at 1.6%; the eurozone growth projection is down 0.3% to 0.7% but will bounce back in 2026, reaching 1.2% next year. China continues to outshine most of its global peers with growth this year and in 2026, expected to come in at a healthy 4.8% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve has also downgraded its 2025 US forecast by 0.4% to 2.1%.

The Starmer administration received some good news for a change – latest data indicates that wage growth has remained strong; wages, excluding bonuses, grew in the quarter ending 31 January by 5.9%, the same percentage as in the previous quarter. However, wages – including bonuses – dipped to 5.8%, so that with official inflation at 3%, wage growth is still high and well above the rate of overall price rises. Since last July, wage increases have surpassed the level of inflation which could be a factor that there may be no immediate rate cuts over the coming months. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.4%, with the number of employees on payrolls “broadly flat”, with little growth seen over the last year. Rather distressingly, the ONS figures showed the economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was around 21.5% in the quarter.

Even though its own independent forecaster expected UK government borrowing, (the difference between spending and income from taxes), to be US$ 8.40, February’s borrowing came in 64.6% higher at US$ 13.83 billion. This will undoubtedly add further pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement next week where she will announce spending cuts to meet her self-imposed rules for the economy, which the Treasury reiterated were “non-negotiable”. Some consider that she may have to miss her self-imposed borrowing rules. Her two main rules are not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending; and to get debt falling as a share of the UK economic output by 2030. At her October Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility indicated Reeves had US$ 12.80 billion available to spend against her borrowing rules; next week it will probably reveal that the chancellor’s buffer has been “wiped out”.

With its operating company filing for bankruptcy protection, it seems that Forever 21, founded in 1984 by South Korean immigrants, is a step nearer to going out of business, even though the retailer posted that its stores and website in the US will remain open as it “begins its process of winding down”. In 2019, when it filed for bankruptcy for the first time, a group of investors ended up buying it through a JV. It also confirmed that it would conduct liquidation sales at its stores and that some or all of its assets would be sold in a court-supervised process. At its peak in 2016, of the eight hundred Forever 21 shops five hundred were located in the US. Its shops and e-commerce platforms, outside of the US are operated by other licence-holders and will not be affected by the bankruptcy protection filing. There is no doubt that starting forty years ago, its inexpensive, trendy clothes and accessories became increasingly popular with young people and over the next few decades, the brand became a competitor of fast-fashion giants such as Zara and H&M. However, it does seem that time has caught up with the retailer and that Forever 21 cannot be Forever Young!

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Out Of Control!

Posted on March 15, 2025 by howesdubai

Out Of Control! 14 March 2025.

The ValuStrat Price Index posted its slowest capital growth in twenty months, with monthly villa valuations up 2.0%, 0.7% lower from its 2.7% peak, with apartments up 1.2%, down from a 2.0% high. Villa capital values grew 2.0% monthly, and 30.8% on the year, with the strongest performers being Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and The Meadows – up 42.3%, 41.8%, 31.2% and 29.8%. The lowest gain was seen in Mudon, returning a 10.5% hike, having been stable for the past six months. Dubai’s freehold villas are, on average, valued 57% above the previous market peak and 160% higher than post-pandemic levels. Last month, the VPI touched 207.5 points – 1.6% and 26.5% higher on the month and on the year; villa values came in at 269.6 points from a January 2021 base of 100 points.

Apartment prices rose by 1.2% monthly, down from 1.4% in January, recording an annual growth of 22.2%. The leading five locations for capital gains were The Greens, Palm Jumeirah, Dubailand Residence Complex, The Views and Town Square, with hikes of 28.9%,26,3%, 25.7%, 25.4% and 25.1%. On the flip side, with the lowest capital value increases, were recorded in International City (15.4%) and Dubai Sports City (17.9%). Apartment valuations are, on average, still 9.0% lower than the previous market peak but 65.0% above post-pandemic levels. Apartment values came in at 167 points from a January 2021 base of 100 points.

Oqood (contract) registrations for off-plan homes grew an incredible 22.2% on the month and 59.5% on an annual basis, representing 70.8% of all home sales in February. The volume of ready secondary-home transactions also increased by 12.8% monthly and 9.8% annually. Last month, there were thirty-one transactions for residences above the US$ 8.17 million, (AED 30.0 million), level, found in Dubai Hills Estate, Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, Business Bay, Bluewaters Island, District One, and Jumeirah Golf Estates. The six main developers in the month, accounting for 46.2% of sales, were Emaar (17.5%), Damac (12.7%), Sobha (4.8%), Nakheel (4.3%), Dubai Properties (4.3%) and Samana (2.6%). Top off-plan locations transacted included projects in Jumeirah Village Circle (7.1%), The Valley (6.5%), Damac Island City (5.5%), Emaar South (5.0%), and Dubailand Residence Complex (4.9%). Most ready homes sold were in Jumeirah Village Circle (9.9%), Business Bay (7.4%), International City (5.6%), Dubai Marina (5.4%), Downtown Dubai (5.2%), and Jumeirah Lake Towers (3.3%).

February figures continued to defy gravity, with the Dubai property market posting a 35% surge in transactions to 16.1k and a mega 55% increase in value to US$ 13.92 billion. According to Property Finder, this is down to shifting preferences and tenants, with a prime example being apartments. The property portal notes that although the demand for studios remains flat at 13%, a whopping 71% of buyers are moving to smaller units – with 34% seeking one-bedroom and 37% two-bedroom apartments. The fact that areas, such as Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, and Palm Jumeirah, are still the most popular location choices indicate that investors continue to prioritise luxury and connectivity. There has been a marked move towards furnished apartments – up 19% to 64%. Among renters, the trend seems to reflect budget-consciousness, with a focus on studios, (20%), and one-bedroom (36%).

In contrast on the villa front, it appears that the main drivers are community amenities and affordability, along with a preference for family-oriented living, with an increasing demand for larger spaces. An 86% of those seeking villa accommodation were interested in a three-bedroom unit (39%), or a four-bedroom home (47%). Leading locations include Dubai Hills Estate, Damac Hills 2, and Al Furjan. When it comes to villa rentals, Jumeirah Village Circle, Deira and Business Bay are the leading locations. Although there has been a 6% upward movement for furnished villas to 42%, the demand for unfurnished villas continues to dominate at 58%. 80% of renters are seeking three-bedroom (41%) or larger villas (39%), with popular locations being Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, and Al Furjan. The off-plan market continues to surge, with transaction values 57% higher to US$ 5.59 billion, on the year, with significant returns seen in Wadi Al Safa 5 and Al Yufrah 1, posting sales of US$ 599 million and US$ 381 million. The ready market remains robust, as existing property transactions jump 27% to 7k, led by high-profile properties such as the Burj Khalifa and Al Yelayiss 1.

It does seem that for those wishing to buy:

to invest, focus on studio and one-bedroom apartments for better percentage returns and luxury villa projects in emerging suburbs for capital appreciation
to live in, focus on the affordability aspect going for the larger size option where available – and often found in new developments in the outer suburbs

Betterhomes claim that there is ‘increased rental inventory’, which means a rising number of homes available for rent could translate to a possible cooling in the rental sector and a slowdown in rental increases. Since the start of the year, locations, such as Deira, Discovery Gardens and Sports City, have shown signs of some rental growth stability which in turn gives tenants more options, as they become more price sensitive. This is particularly welcome to the many tenants that have had to put up with double-digit annual rentals post Covid. The agency also noted that there were 36.22k leasing transaction – 10% lower on the month – and that “renewals dominated the market, making up 59% of transactions.”

Meraas has awarded a contract, worth over US$ 545 million, to Arabian Construction Company LLC for the construction of Design Quarter at d3. The project, the first within d3 and comprising five hundred and fifty-eight apartments, will include a global creative and design ecosystem. It will have two skyscrapers and one low-rise tower, all within a landscaped podium which includes the first residential community within Dubai Design District (d3), a global creative and design ecosystem. It will provide a social hub for residents which will include co-working spaces, an indoor-outdoor gym, pool facilities, barbecue areas and fun-filled zones for children’s activities. Completion is expected by mid-2027.

For the fourth consecutive year, Dubai has been ranked the leading global destination for Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment. The Financial Times Ltd’s ‘fDi Markets’ data posted that last year, the emirate attracted a 33.2% annual increase to US$ 14.24 billion in estimated FDI capital – marking the highest annual FDI value ever recorded in a single year since 2020. Project-wise, the 1.12k return was the highest ever, whilst there was a 10.7% increase in FDIs to 1.83k. It is claimed that 58.7k jobs, (an annual 31.1% increase), were created through FDI. This marks the highest number of total announced FDI projects ever recorded by the emirate. Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, commented that “Dubai’s ability to steadily consolidate its status as a leading global destination for foreign direct investment reflects its commitment to delivering exceptional value to investors worldwide”, and “this success is the result of a strategic vision that keeps pace with economic and technological transformations, aligned with the ambitious objectives of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 to double the size of the emirate’s economy by 2033 and establish it as one of the world’s top three urban economies.”

Four factors have had a bearing on these impressive figures – an attractive business environment, favourable regulations, modern infrastructure, and a strategic location. The leading five source countries, accounting for 63% of the total estimated 2024 flows into Dubai, were India, US, France, UK and Switzerland responsible for 21.5%, 13.7%, 11.0%, 10.0% and 6.9% of the total. The leading five source sectors, accounting for 53% of the total estimated 2024 flows into Dubai, were hotels/tourism, real estate, software/IT services, building materials and financial services responsible for 14.0%, 14.0%, 9.2%, 9.0% and 6.8% of the total. For FDI projects, the top sectors were business services (19.2%), food/beverages (16.5%), software/IT services (14.3%), textiles (9.6%), and consumer products (8.3%).

The UN Trade and Development expects moderate FDI growth this year, attributable to economic stability, technology advancements, and geopolitical shifts. Locally, Dubai’s outlook remains positive, specifically in high tech and innovation-driven sectors – and this despite global uncertainties and shifting economic dynamics.

This week Ripple became the first blockchain-powered payments provider to receive a licence from the Dubai International Financial Centre, to offer regulated crypto payments and services in the emirate. It is also Ripple’s first foray in the ME, indicating its further regional expansion plans and cementing its position as a leader in enterprise blockchain and crypto solutions.

There is a chance that there could be a five-day holiday to celebrate the Islamic festival of Eid Al Fitr. Depending on the sighting of the mood, the break could be four or for five days, (including the weekend), with the latter likely as per astronomical calculations of the Eid date, which is celebrated on the first of Shawwal, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Islamic Hijri months last either 29 or 30 days, depending on when the crescent Moon is sighted.

Dubai is home to almost fifty freezones, with the latest being ISEZA – a first-of-a-kind industry-dedicated free zone cluster in the UAE and globally. It will cover established sectors, such as sports management and marketing, event management, talent representation and media and broadcasting, while also supporting growth in emerging areas like e-sports, AI-driven sports tech, and fan tokens. It will be home to a diverse range of industry players including global brands, sports leagues and franchises, rights owners and investors, sports and talent agencies, artists, sports and media personalities, social media influencers and creative industries professionals. ISEZA will operate within the DWTC Free Zone, and hopes to attract international and regional sports organisations, such as sports federations, associations and leagues, both in established and emerging sports. Dubai’s sports industry contributes approximately US$ 2.5 billion annually to its economy.

There was a 43.8% 2024 surge for Dubai’s luxury transport sector, reaching 43.444 million trips, carrying the same 43.8% increase of passengers to 75.592 million. This sector has marked a record growth, the highest in recent years for the luxury transport sector via e-hail. Other notable increases include e-hail services, (up 43.8% to 32.556 million), operating companies from nine to thirteen and fleet size 30.1% to 16.4k.

Last year, Tecom Group posted an annual 11% year-on-year increase in revenues to US$ 654 million, with occupancy and retention rates of 94% and 92%; its full year net profit rose 14% to US$ 327 million. Having already paid out shareholders a US$ 0.0218 dividend, equating to US$ 109 million. In line with the firm’s approved dividend policy, it will pay the same dividend of US$ 109 million applicable to H2 2024. Its chairman, Malek al Malek, noted that “Tecom Group’s strong performance through 2024 has allowed us to implement our strategic investments. This includes US$ 736 million, (AED 2.7 billion), of investments to deliver sustainable growth.”

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 10 March, one hundred and twenty-five points lower, (2.4%), the previous three weeks, shed eighty-two points (1.6%), to close the trading week on 5,141 points, by Friday 14 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.10 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.15, closing on US$ 3.57 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.69, US$ 5.65 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.32 and closed on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.46 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.36. On 14 March, trading was at two hundred and ten million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and two million dollars, compared to dollars two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and fifty-three million dollars on 07 March.

By Friday, 14 March 2025, Brent, US$ 4.39 lower (5.8%) the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.19 (0.2%) to close on US$ 70.58. Gold, US$ 62 (2.2%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 87 (3.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,994 on 14 March, having traded above US$ 3k earlier in the day

There is no doubt that some US officials are becoming increasingly concerned about the modus operandi of DeepSeek and how the tech company deals with user data stored on its servers in China. The Trump administration is considering multiple measures to curtail its activities in the US which could include banning DeepSeek’s chatbot application on federal government devices. Its national security concerns are how it uses the information it has and who has access to it. Further moves could see more draconian measures, including a complete ban on the app from US app suppliers and stringent limitations on how domestic service providers can offer DeepSeek’s AI models to customers.

The Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf posted that up until the end of October 2024, the overall GCC inflation was 1.7% higher on the year. The main sectors moving higher were housing, goods/services, hospitality, culture/entertainment, education and food/beverages, with increases of 6.4%, 3.0%, 1.7%, 1.4%, 1.2% and 0.8%. They were offset by declines noted in transportation, furniture/household, tobacco, communications and clothing/footwear of 3.6%, 1.9%, 1.1%, 0.9% and 0.4%; prices of the health group remained at their previous levels. It is interesting to note that the overall inflation rate in the GCC countries was lower than the EU’s 2.3% rate. The global countries, with the highest inflation rates, were Brazil at 4.8%, India – 4.4%, UK – 3.2%, US – 2.6%, Japan – 2.3% and Germany – 2.0%.

Having announced a strategic review last year, the embattled online fashion retailer, Boohoo hasrenamed itself Debenhams Group, now the department store’s updated business model accounts for the majority of group profitability. In recent months, the company had been fighting its main shareholder, Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group, over direction and performance. In 2020, when Debenhams collapsed, closing one hundred and twenty-three stores and making 12k staff redundant, Boohoo had acquired only the name and website operations from administrators. Boohoo is now valued at US$ 440 million – well down from its former value of US$ 4.40 billion. The main drivers behind this slump include increased and cheaper competition, supply chain disruption and rising returns. It has added that the marketplace-led, stock-lite, capital-lite Debenhams had “transformed” its fortunes, and that “our ongoing business review has confirmed that Debenhams, its business model and its technology is at the epicentre of our group going forward.”

Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, has announced plans for a US$ 2.60 billion, 100k-seater ground, set to be the largest stadium in the UK; it seems highly likely that the existing iconic Old Trafford ground will be demolished. Although such a project would normally take ten years to build, Ratcliffe is confident that it could be ready within five years. There was some hope that the original ground could be used by United’s women and youth teams, but it has been found that this option is not viable. Foster and Partners, who have designed the project, confirmed that the new stadium would feature an umbrella design and a new public plaza that is “twice the size of Trafalgar Square”. Another feature will be the three masts – the trident – that will be 200 mt high and have visibility of some twenty-five miles.

In Q4 2024, the euro area’s seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.2%, whilst in the EU it came in on 0.4%; in Q3, GDP had grown by 0.4% in both areas. After both blocs had posted 0.4% growth in 2023, GDP growth in the EU was 0.1% marginally better than the euro area’s 0.9%. During 2024, GDP in the US increased by 0.6%, compared to the previous quarter (after 0.8% in Q3 2024).

In Australia, the beleaguered casino group Star Entertainment has secured a US$ 33 million lifeline from the sale of 50% of its share in a new Brisbane casino to the other 50% owner. Hong Kong investors, Far East Consortium International and Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, confirmed that a deal had been reached to take over full control of the US$ 2.4 billion Brisbane’s Queen’s Wharf development. In return for this 50% stake, Star Entertainment will acquire the Hong Kong parties’ two-thirds stake in the Gold Coast project. Star has been running casinos in Sydney, Brisbane and on the Gold Coast for decades, but in recent years, along with other casino companies Crown and SkyCity, it has been the subject of ongoing investigations and royal commissions in four states, manly related to money laundering. Star is now battling legal action, with the corporate watchdog ASIC alleging Star’s board and directors had “failed to give sufficient focus to the risk of money laundering and criminal associations”.

With Canada having started this trade battle, by initiating levies, (100% on EV imports and 25% on steel/aluminium products), on China last October, it has announced retaliatory action by levying tariffs of over US$ 2.6 billion on Canadian agricultural and food products. These comprise a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and pea imports, and 25% on aquatic products and pork. At the time, the Chinese Commerce Ministry argued that “Canada’s measures seriously violate World Trade Organisation rules, constitute a typical act of protectionism and are discriminatory measures that severely harm China’s legitimate rights and interests. Meanwhile, the then Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, claimed the measure was to counter what he called China’s intentional state-directed policy of over-capacity.

This week, the odds on a US recession strengthened and even President Trump refused to rule one out, commenting “I hate to predict things like that,” and that “there is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big – we’re bringing wealth back to America. “It takes a little time.” Trump’s orchestration of amending tariffs to the likes of Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US, (and global), financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring; indeed, the previous week was the worst performing for global bourses since the November election, whilst consumer confidence has dipped alarmingly, with the undoubted increase in prices after years of high inflation, just returning to some form of normality.

On Tuesday, he lifted the ante in his trade war with Canada, by doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%. This comes after Ontario placed 25% tariffs on electricity exported to the US, which led the new Canadian leader, Mark Carney, to back down after the state’s premier, Doug Ford said, “we will not back down” and called on Trump to “stop the chaos”. This came after the worst day of the year for US bourses. Trump took the fight to Canada even further by also by adding that if the tariffs on agricultural products were not dropped, he would hike taxes on the car industry which would all but shut the industry in Canada down.

The on-going sparring between the two N American neighbours further unsettled financial markets, already reeling by Trump’s focus on tariffs. After taking a spill after Trump’s initial post on Truth Social, that he was going to put an additional 25% tariff on the metals products from Canada, stocks rebounded when Ford said he would suspend the electricity surcharge and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. The S&P 500 index dropped as low as 5,528 points, briefly marking a 10.0% slump from its record closing high of 6,144 on 19 February, which is commonly known as a market correction. Overall stocks have fallen hard since reaching a record high about a month after Trump took office on 20 January, shedding almost US$ 5 trillion of their market caps. Despite Mark Carney, the new man at the helm in Canada, saying that “Canada will never be part of America in any way, shape or form,” the US protagonist reiterated that Canada relied on the US for “military protection”, and that he wanted the country to become the fifty-first US state, adding that it “would make all tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear”, if this were to happen.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminium imports and on the following day, the EU launched countermeasures, as from 01 April 2025, against new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, with plans to impose duties on US$ 28.3 billion worth of American goods. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said it would move forward with “swift and proportionate” measures. For Europe, the new tariffs are almost quadrupled what they were in Trump’s first presidency, when the US targeted nearly US$ 7 billion of the bloc’s metals exports, citing national security concerns. Furthermore, the US has stated that reciprocal tariffs, coming in early April, are based on policies of partners that are seen as obstacles to US trade, including Europe’s value-added tax, and has targeted certain goods including European cars.

US President Donald Trump reversed course on Tuesday afternoon on a pledge to double tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada to 50; this followed a move by Ontario Premier Doug Ford, to place a 25% surcharge on the electricity Canada’s most populous province supplied to more than a million US homes unless Trump dropped all of his tariff threats against Canada’s exports into the US. Hours later when he realised that Trump would actually go through with his threat, Ford unceremoniously pulled back on his 25% surcharge on electricity.

Last month, the EU’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, had gone to Washington to discuss amicable solutions to members of Trump’s team, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He did offer some compromises, including increasing US imports of liquefied natural gas and defence goods and reducing tariffs on industrial goods, including cars. However, he concluded that “the US administration doesn’t seem to be engaging to make a deal,” and “as the US is watching over their interests, so is the EU,” and the bloc “will always protect European businesses, workers and consumers from unjustified tariffs because we know they expect no less from us.”

Ironically, Elon Musk’s Tesla has sent a letter to the US Trade Representative’s Office warning officials it risks being exposed to “disproportionate” retaliatory tariffs under the president’s escalating trade war. The market has shown its displeasure with Tesla, as its share value has slumped by more than 50%, equating to some US$ 800 billion, since its December peak, including its worst daily loss this week in five years. This was in line with the market seemingly indicating that US consumers and businesses were now facing the prospect of a recession in the coming months; on top of that, some of the EV maker’s problems can be linked to domestic anger over Elon Musk’s work in government to shrink its size through leadership of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

There is no doubt that the European economies will be badly impacted by the double whammy of their steel exports to the US will diminish and that the bloc could be flooded with cheap steel, as the US market becomes too expensive and other markets have to be found To add to their woes, the EU is already suffering from cheap steel imports from Asia, N Africa and the ME. It has been estimated that during his last stint as President, Trump’s tariffs saw that for 67% of steel deflected from the US market, ended up in the EU. Furthermore, Canadian aluminium, that normally comprises 50% of US imports, will be looking at dumping excess in the European markets.

Mainly down to a dip in the manufacturing sector, the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January – a figure that disappointed the market which was expecting a 0.1% expansion, following on December’s 0.4% growth – and which was another body blow for the Starmer administration. This contraction – another indicator of the fragility of the economy – will also impact Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s decisions as she seeks to meet her self-imposed rules on tax and spending in her Spring Statement later this month; she will have to pull more than an Easter bunny out of her hat to try and keep the sluggish economy growing. More so because 01 April sees the arrival of business entities having to pay more in National Insurance, along with minimum wages rising and business rates relief being reduced, that will see employers with less cash available to give pay rises, create new jobs or invest. On top of all that, is the scenario of Trump tariffs and more of the government money being poured into defence spending. There is no doubt that the Chancellor finds herself between a rock and a hard place, as growth prospects falter, at the same time that government spending will have to be reined in so that Reeves can meet her tax and spending rules.

What could come as a surprise to many would be the fact that at the beginning of 2025, 9.3 million people, aged 16 to 64, in the UK were economically inactive – an 8.3% hike of 713k since the pandemic. The Department of Work and Pensions indicates that some 2.8 million people are economically inactive because of long-term sickness, and that the government spends of over US$ 84.0 billion on sickness benefits – with tens of billions of pounds being added by the time of the next election in 2029, (assuming the government can last that long).

It seems that the dynamic duo, Starmer/Reeves, is out to irk some of the electorate, as the PM commented that the current welfare system was “the worst of all worlds”, discouraging people from working while producing a “spiralling bill”; he added that the current benefits system was unsustainable, indefensible and unfair. In the coming weeks, Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, will set out changes to the welfare system and cuts to the benefits bill – indeed the Chancellor has already earmarked several billion pounds in draft spending cuts to welfare and other government departments ahead of her Spring Statement, later this month. Some of the sectors that could be impacted include cuts to incapacity benefits for people unable to work and receiving Universal Credit, and restrictions on eligibility for the Personal Independent Payment, which provides help with extra living costs to those with a long-term physical or mental health condition. It is no surprise that some Labour MPs will be uncomfortable with the measures to be taken and could vote with their feet.

The PM also commented that “we’ve found ourselves in a worst of all worlds’ situation – with the wrong incentives – discouraging people from working, the taxpayer funding a spiralling bill. A wasted generation, one-in-eight young people not in education, employment or training, and the people who really need that safety net still not always getting the dignity they deserve. That’s unsustainable, it’s indefensible and it is unfair, people feel that in their bones. So, this needs to be our offer to people up and down the country. If you can work, we will make work pay – if you need help, that safety net will be there for you. But this is the Labour Party – we believe in the dignity of work and we believe in the dignity of every worker.” However, a dozen charities have argued there is “little evidence to suggest cutting benefits increases employment outcomes” and have urged Rachel Reeves to “think again about cuts to disability benefits”. She continues to insist that “we do need to get a grip” on the welfare budget, saying the “current system is not working for anyone”. Maybe it is the Chancellor who is Out Of Control!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged China, economy, fdi-growth-dubai, politics, tariffs, Trump | Leave a comment

It’s Getting Serious!

Posted on March 7, 2025 by howesdubai

It’s Getting Serious! 07 March 2025

With many experts pointing to a slight decline in the Dubai property market, it will come as a shock for them to see February data. The month saw a total of 16.1k transactions, (35.5% higher on the year) and a breakdown reveals those sales for:

Villas 3,679 99.7% higher US$ 5.12 billion

Apartments 11,364 21.3% higher US$ 5.83 billion

Plots 608 74.7% higher US$ 2.62 billion

Commercial 40.1% higher US$ 0.33 billion (US$ 423 per sq ft)

fäm Properties estimates that over the past five years, Dubai’s February property sales have moved 449% higher in value, to US$ 13.92 billion in 2025; and up 31.2% on the year. The most expensive property sold, at US$ 38 million, last month was a luxury villa in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, with an apartment sale in The Rings – 1 at Jumeirah Second selling for US$ 32 million. Prime sales accounted for 66% of total transactions and 62% by value. Properties below the US$ 277k threshold accounted for 25% of the market total, with those between US$ 272k-US$ 545k – 31% and above the US$ 1.36 million. Reports show that month-on month rental renewals posted a 30% drop in February – a probable indicator that there is a potential shift in the Dubai property landscape. It seems an increasing number of tenants are opting to own – and not continue to rent – their homes, more so because of the recent very high rental rates and the fact that demand is outpacing supply. There is no doubt that there is a shift to people making a longer-term commitment to stay in the emirate for longer.

Randy Fink, Asteco’s CEO, noted that, driven by positive market sentiment and strong demand, the UAE rental market recorded sustained growth throughout 2024. One of the consequences was that there was increased rental growth and activity in the lower and mid-end segments. This in turn benefitted “affordable communities in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with the Northern Emirates, which attract tenants with their competitive rents, expanding supply of quality developments, improved infrastructure and enhanced accessibility. The flexibility of hybrid working arrangements has further supported this migration.”

According toSavills’ Andrew Cummings, “Dubai continues to be a standout destination for prime residential property, with capital values increasing 6.8% and rents growing by a record-breaking 23.5% in 2024. Population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals and family offices to the UAE are underpinning strong demand for residential property, particularly in the prime markets.” Over recent years, the emirate has become the leading global destination, eclipsing the likes of New York and Singapore, for ultra luxury homes (those valued at over US$ 10.0 million). Last year, the population grew by 170k (4.65%) and in the first two month of 2025 by a similar 28k growth trend, (0.73%), to 3.853 million. Savills also noted that the average Dubai prime property is valued at US$ 930 per sq ft – much lower than other global city hotpots such as Hong Kong’s US$ 3,860, US$ 2,590 in New York, US$ 2,550 in Geneva, US$ 2,120 in Tokyo, and US$ 2,000 in Shanghai. Dubai is also in front when it comes to both capital value appreciation, (expected to almost reach 10.0% in 2025) and prime rental value which last year topped 23.5%, surpassing its 2016 market peak. Demand has strengthened by the advent of more ultra-high-net-worth individuals and high-net-worth individuals, “choosing Dubai because there are world-class schools and healthcare facilities, along with world class facilities and infrastructure in a safe and secure environment In addition, security and safety for the uber-rich is increasingly prominent.” Other demand sources include the traditional “big buyers” – the Indians – and marked upticks from the UK, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, and “we are seeing a real influx on the European side at the moment, particularly due to short flight times, ease of access, ability to spend more time here, and running their businesses back home from Dubai.”

Cavendish Maxwell posted that rents in Dubai South and communities along Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road saw the emirate’s highest increases in 2024, rising by up to 30.0%. Overall, in the apartment sector, the three leaders were Dubai South, Al Furjan and Dubai Production City, moving 30%, 27% and 24% higher respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, but still in positive territory, were Palm Jumeirah, Al Habtoor City and Bluewaters Island, up by 5%, 3% and 1%. Not surprisingly, there were bigger increases noted in the villa sector including Palm Jumeirah, Al Furjan and Dubai Investments Park with rises of 52%, 39% and 38%. (Such impressive movements only occur when demand easily outpaces supply in an expanding market).

Asteco also noted that marked changes in rents happened when there is in a limited supply of units in established developments, an uptick in premium projects within average communities, and renovations or upgrades to existing properties. On the other side of the coin, communities with larger available inventories recorded no growth or marginal downward adjustments. Cavendish Maxwell data indicated that average 2024 yields for apartments and villas came in on 7.4% and 5.1%, with the four leaders being Dubai Investments Park, International City, Dubai Production City and Downtown Jebel Ali at 10.3%, 9.4%, 8.6% and 8.6%.

Knight Frank estimated that, last year, the number of Dubai homes, available for sale, fell 30%, with a 52% prime reduction in home listings, as more end-users bought properties in the emirate to beat rising rentals. The agency added that “we have noted a rise in genuine end users, rather than speculative purchasers that have defined previous cycles”.

Knight Frank noted that the number of ultra-luxury homes, (those priced over US$ 10 million)available for sale declined 39.5% to 2.49k, over the last twelve months. The number of homes, available in the US$ 25 million-plus bracket, was down 75.3% to just eighty-six. The main driver is the influx of millionaires and ultra-high net worth individuals to the emirate, with the end result being a jump in per sq ft value to US$ 1,806 because of a massive decrease in inventory not able to meet the growing demand for luxury homes. Last year, Dubai topped the global listing for sales of US$ 10 million plus homes with four hundred and thirty-five deals, of which a record one hundred and fifty-three were registered in Q4.

Aldar Properties’ third project in Dubai, (in partnership with Dubai Holdings), ‘The Wilds’, has seen phase 1 sold out, generating US$ 1.36 billion, through a series of local and international sales events. Phase 1 – including 3 B/R, 4 B/R and 5 B/R homes – comprised seven hundred and thirty-four villas, with 92% sold to expatriate residents and overseas buyers, with the three top nationalities being from India, China and the UK; of the total buyers, 52% were under the age of forty-five. The next phase will see a range of luxurious five- and six-bedroom mansions, designed by the renowned Lebanese architect Nabil Gholam, as well as one-to-three-bedroom apartments.

In its first year of operations, DHG Properties has already reached US$ 272 million in Gross Development Value, as it launches its second residential project in Dubai. After the success of Helvetia Residences in JVC last year, the Swiss developer has launched its yet-named US$ 82 million new project in Meydan, which comprises one hundred and ten apartments. It has also acquired a US$ 71 million prime plot on Dubai Islands for its third residential project in Dubai. Over the past thirty years, the company has completed more than three hundred projects in Europe, focussing on Switzerland and Serbia.

Cavendish Maxwell data indicates that there were 145k new off-plan unit launches in 2024, which averages out to almost four hundred units every day. The obvious main drivers have been the inflow of overseas developers and unprecedented local demand. The consultancy noted that “these impressive figures are not just the result of the recovery from the pandemic. They reflect a strong, stable property market that has seen consistent growth since 2022, driven by continued international demand from India, China and other ME countries in particular.” Emaar, Binghatti and Damac continue to lead the charge for the new launch market in terms of both units released and sales value in the off-plan segment. Mohammed Bin Rashid City saw the highest number of units delivered in 2024, with 5.3k new homes, followed by Jumeirah Village Circle (4.8k), Business Bay (2.8k), Al Furjan (2.6k) and Rukan, Dubailand (1.5k).

Cavendish Maxwell also posted that there are 243k new units, (roughly split 80;20, apartments:villas) in the pipeline, with that number probably enough to add stability to the sector and eventually end up with reduced price/rental increases. It expects that these units will all be delivered over the next three years. That is a lot of units considering that an estimated 46k were handed over last year. It notes that the five leading “supply locations” were Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Azizi Venice, Damac Lagoons and Arjan with 25.0k, 16.0k, 13.5k, 11.1k and 9.0k units to be delivered. Many other locations – including Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Hills, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle and Triangle, Al Furjan, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Town Square, and Studio City – are expected to receive at least 2k units.

Last month, it was reported that there had been a 30% decline in month-on-month rental renewals, with rates for both apartments and villas up 3.0% in Q4. There is a feeling that there is a definite move away from rentals to ownership due to a surge in rental rates as the population growth nears an annual 5.0%.

According to Knight Frank, the total number of homes under construction now stands at 303k units, equating to 60.6k per annum. Of these, 80% will be apartments, with the remainder being villas and branded residences. (According to Cavendish Maxwell, 243k new units were in the pipeline for delivery until the end of 2027, equating to 81k per annum with Jumeirah Village Circle leading the chart;). If 10% of launches fail and there is a 20% lag, the number of new units over the next three years will be 51k. (60.6k + 81.0k = 141.6k/2 = 70.8k*.9= 63.72k*.8= 51k). The past five years have never seen a figure over 45k.

According to UAE-based Elite Merit Real Estates, investments by Chinese and Russian nationals in Dubai’s luxury real estate market grew by 15% and 20% last year. The increase reflects the BRICS factor influencing foreign capital inflows, with Dubai’s tax policies, infrastructure, and geopolitical stability attracting investors.

Sotheby’s International Realty claim that a six-bedroom Jumeirah Bay Island sold for US$ 90 million is the most expensive residence on what is known as ‘Billionaire Island’; this easily surpasses the previous record of US$ 66 million. Encompassing a 26.9k sq ft plot, it is one of just three plots on the tip of the island, but the only one that has uninterrupted views of the Burj Khalifa and Downtown skyline. The villa is encased in full-height glass walls and boasts 13 mt-high ceilings, with the home built with exquisite materials, including Taj Mahal Quartzite, Patagonian marble, and walnut wood veneer. Other features include a beachfront infinity pool and a private stretch of white-sand beach. Jumeirah Bay Island, with just one hundred and twenty-eight plots, remains one of the most coveted addresses in Dubai. Meanwhile an Emirates Hills villa has just sold for US$ 116 million, with a super-luxury home in Jumeirah Bay Island selling for US$ 90 million and beating the previous record of US$ 66 million for that location.

A four-bedroom luxury villa, with two garages and several luxurious amenities, including a show kitchen, a grease kitchen, two living rooms, a dining room and a dedicated office space, has been listed for an annual US$ 2.0 million rent. Located on Palm Jumeirah and encompassing a 15k sq ft plot, the Signature Villa also includes two staff rooms. The Palm Jumeirah villa boasts a sleek contemporary design, with Fendi furnishings, premium finishes, and top-tier appliances. Residents enjoy luxury amenities, including a private gym, home theatre, jacuzzi, sauna, infinity pool, and cold plunge pool. The property is listed on Penthouse.ae – an online platform powered by Metropolitan and the luxury division of Metropolitan Premium Properties – in collaboration with Savills. The agency adds that “The Signature Villa is an ideal offering for UHNWIs seeking a once-in-a-lifetime rental opportunity in one of the world’s most sought-after locations. This villa is a true masterpiece, designed to cater to the most discerning clientele who expect nothing less than perfection in every aspect of their lifestyle.” This current offering easily beats the US$ 1.09 million for a penthouse in Downtown Dubai and the US$ 1.0 million rental for a five-bedroom townhouse in Jumeirah Bay Island’s Villa Amalfi community.

A first-of-its kind UAE platform is expected to utilise a bidding system to transform the way high-end luxury properties are rented. In simple terms, Bidbayt will offer a range of properties including houses, offices, and warehouses in high-demand areas, with the highest bidder securing the property. Khaled Yaser Mir Abdullah Amiri, the CEO and co-founder of the app, noted that “there are a lot of premium properties that people are ready to pay above the market price for,” and that “we have created a place for such rentals to be auctioned off to the highest bidder in a convenient and easy format.” The new entity estimates that this app could boost rental income by up to 20% and reduce the time to lease a property by 30%, compared to traditional methods. Supported by the Mohammed Bin Rashid Establishment for SME Development (Dubai SME), the app was recently recognised as one of the top ten proptech companies by the Dubai Land Department. It has been approached by several government agencies and is in discussions to explore how to replace in-person auctions with Bidbayt’s app auctions. There is a nominal US$ 81 charge per listing and a 0.5% commission fee on finalised rental terms.

An agreement between Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority and Uber introduces Uber School to the emirate. Designed for schoolchildren, over the age of eight, and their families, it aims to offer an innovative, affordable transportation solution. Integrated into the Uber Teens accounts, this service offers enhanced safety features like real-time tracking, driver verification, and PIN authentication, along with safety, convenience, and cost savings. Real-Time Trip Tracking: Parents can monitor rides in real-time, receiving live updates, along with audio recordings to ensure peace of mind. Families can save up to 35% when booking a weekly trip package of ten or more rides.

In an agreement signed this week between the Roads and Transport Authority and Dubai Holding, US$ 1.63 billion will be invested for major upgrades to improve access to five Dubai Holding developments – Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Production City, Business Bay, Palm Jumeirah and International City. Bridges – both pedestrian and vehicle – will be developed and new roads built as part of the deal to improve access. Communities and projects also having infrastructure work carried out are:

Dubai Islands
Jumeirah Village Triangle
Palm Gateway
Al Furjan
Jumeirah Park
Arjan, Majan
Liwan (Phase 1)
Nad Al Hamar
Villanova
Serena

This investment is one of many in Dubai aiming to improve infrastructure. Last November, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid approved a five-year plan to transform the emirate’s road network; the twenty-one projects will encompass twelve residential, commercial and industrial areas, with six hundred and thirty-four km of new roads, costing US$ 1.0 billion. It will improve traffic flow to nineteen residential areas, including Al Barsha and Jumeirah; travel time is expected to be cut by 40%. A month earlier, it was announced that US$ 194 million would be spent to enhance traffic flow around the Trade Centre, with five main roads connecting it with SZR. It will include five bridges, spanning 5k mt in total, and turn it into a bridged intersection. Last month, Dubai’s Railbus project was announced at the World Governments Summit, with this new project complementing the existing metro and tram networks.

With the aim of supporting student-led solutions with global potential, GEMS Education, in partnership with Play Tech Centre, has introduced the ‘Next Billion Innovation’ US$ 1 million fund, initially only open to students at GEMS School of Research and Innovation, which opens its doors the next scholastic year in August. The chosen students will have access to incubator programmes and global startup ecosystems.

The Dubai International Financial Centre is planning to retrofit a building dedicated primarily to hedge fund startups looking to expand into the city. Set to open by the end of next month, the DIFC Hedge Funds Centre, with a 10k sq ft capacity, will cater to firms looking for short-term, plug-and-play offices, as they pilot their operations before scaling up. It expects that up to thirty contracts will be signed by year-end. The two main source markets appear to be the US and the UK, with others from Singapore, Hong Kong and India. Housed in the former court building, tenants will have access to communal areas for networking, facility management and an environment already set up with desks, receptionists and trading capabilities. The majority of the seventy-five hedge funds in the DIFC manage more than US$ 1.0 billion in assets, so this move to smaller spinouts and independent launches is a strategic shift.

With Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, attributing some of its success to the impact of the effectiveness of the UAE’s economic diversification strategies, there was a 3.8% growth in real GDP, to US$ 360.22 billion, (AED 1.322 trillion), in the first nine months of 2024. With a 4.5% hike, the non-oil sectors now contribute US$ 268.94 billion, (or 74.66%) to the country’s GDP. In a bid to raise its GDP to US$ 817.44 billion, (AED 3.00 trillion), over the next seven years to 2033, the UAE is aiming to become the leading global hub for the new economy, focussing on innovation and global partnerships.

The Ministry of Investment posted that, in 2023, the total new and announced capital inflows of foundational Foreign Direct Investment reached US$ 16.0 billion – an indicator on UAE’s position, as a preferred destination for international investors. Meanwhile, there was a 35% surge of FDI inflows, to US$ 30.68 billion in 2023. The Minister of Economy noted that the UAE is committed to providing a competitive legislative environment for new economy sectors. The primary sectors driving foundational investment growth in the UAE include business services, software, and IT services, which have generated numerous job opportunities and attracted substantial capital inflows. The growth has resulted in a 7.5% increase in total jobs, created a 31% rise in announced projects, and a 37% surge in total announced foundational foreign direct investment inflows.

The new state-of-the-art South Container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port has been unveiled this week, as part of a US$ 800 million expansion by DP World and Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani). This expansion, under a thirty-year Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) agreement, will eventually result in a development, with a future capacity of five million TEUs, with additional ship-to-shore equipment to be deployed as demand grows. (The current expansion will see capacity more than double from 1.8 million TEUs to 4.0 million TEUs). This was DP World’s first concession outside the UAE and since 1999, the Jeddah terminal has played a crucial role in regional trade. This latest expansion cements Jeddah’s status as a trade gateway and supports Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of boosting trade.

2024 proved another record year for DP World, as it handled 1.3 million vehicles across its terminals – 53.6% higher on the year. 96% of the total were in Jebel Ali port, with the remainder to be found at Mina Al Hamriyah and Mina Rashid. China was the top trading partner, responsible for 25% of total volumes, followed by Japan, Korea and India. The Jebel Ali Free Zone Authority is home to almost a thousand automotive and spare parts companies. Jebel Ali Port has developed the world’s largest and most advanced car market, spanning twenty million sq ft, with a capacity of one million car equivalent units. Last year, the country issued two hundred thousand new trade licences and can now boast that over 1.1 million companies and economic institutions are operating in its markets.

Both the UAE President HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and his counterpart Faustin-Archange Touadéra, witnessed the UAE and the Central African Republic signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), aimed at enhancing trade and investment opportunities. This pact is expected to increase market access for locally produced goods in both countries by reducing or eliminating tariffs, removing trade barriers, and boosting investment in key sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and technology. It also highlights the country’s growing trade network and its commitment to strengthening economic ties with African nations. Last year saw a 75% annual increase in bilateral trade to US$ 252 million. Over the past two years, the UAE has signed well over twenty CEPAs, all of which will help the country’s goal to boost non-oil trade to US$ 1.1 trillion by 2031.

A treble of higher profit margins, higher orders and higher pricing has seen the PMI data from S&P Global rising to its highest level in nine months. In contrast, the private sector witnessed costs move higher for the first time in seven months – perhaps a cautionary warning to the sector of what may happen for the rest of the year. Backlogged orders rose, as businesses were keen to source new work, but because of continuing intense competition, price increases have been capped, whilst business confidence going forward has been muted. As has been the case in recent months, the construction sector continues to stand out as the most active, with many new projects getting off the ground. Although some firms have increased their payroll, overall employment levels have remained flat, so that job creation continues to be subdued. Non-payments continue not only to be a nuisance but also a negative impact on many players’ cashflows in the private sector.

Airbus is looking to manufacture components for the A400M, a military transport aircraft, in the UAE, along with a training centre, with dedicated maintenance, repair, and overhaul facilities. According to Gabriel Sémelas, the President of Airbus in Africa and the ME, these developments are projected to solidify the UAE’s standing as a premier regional hub for aviation excellence, and this latest initiative will facilitate deeper integration of UAE-based entities, including EPI and Strata, into the global aerospace supply chain. Sémelas also added that job creation and skills development were cornerstones of Airbus’s industry localisation strategy, and that Airbus will implement robust targeted training and technical support initiatives.

It is reported that a major crypto exchange, Bitget, has plans to make Dubai a hub for its next phase of global expansion. As part of the process, it has applied for a licence from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.

The 14 February Don’t Worry, Be Happy blog detailed Salik’s impressive 2024 financials. This week, the toll-gate company has approved a US$ 0.042 share dividend, equating to a cumulative US$ 316 million payout. The firm’s current policy is to pay 100% of its net profit to dividends – in 2023, the dividend came in at just under US$ 281 million. Salik closed last year with two more tollgates in Dubai, bringing its total to ten. Ending the year with 25% more gates, a probable 5.0% 2025 hike in population, (and thus more cars – and fines – on Dubai roads), extending revenue streams including barrier-free parking payment solutions at malls, the introduction of new variable usage rates, profits could easily rise to at least another 10% – and hence a potential 10% plus rise in dividend payments; revenue could come in over 25% higher on the year.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 03 March, forty-four points lower, (0.8%), the previous fortnight, shed eighty-one points (1.8%), to close the trading week on 5,223 points by Friday 07 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.10, closing on US$ 3.75 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02 US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.39 and closed on US$ 0.69, US$ 5.65 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.32. On 07 March, trading was at two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and fifty-three million dollars, compared to three hundred and sixty-five million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and ninety million dollars on 28 February.

By Friday, 07 March 2025, Brent, US$ 1.79 lower (2.4%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 2.60 (3.6%) to close on US$ 70.39. Gold, US$ 94 (3.2%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 62 (2.2%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,907 on 07 March 2025.

Even with Trump pressure to lower oil prices, OPEC+ will proceed with plans to revive halted oil production, after repeated delays, by increasing production by 138k bpd next month. This will be the first in a series of monthly hikes to add 2.2 million bpd by next year, following two years of postponements. On the news, earlier in the week, Brent crude dropped 2.1% to US$ 71.63 and ended the week on US$ 70.39, struggling under the US$ 70 threshold. No surprise to see the Trump impact on prices. There is no doubt that Saudi – and other producing nations – wanted a price hike and it seems that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has compromised by pledging to invest US$ 600 billion in the US in a bid to strengthen the kingdom’s ties. Additionally, Washington’s ‘maximum pressure’ on Iranian exports could create a gap for other OPEC+ nations to fill, whilst sanctioned Russia may see more favourable conditions to ship barrels thanks to warmer relations with Trump.

Ahead of a meeting with crypto executives, Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve. The bitcoin used to finance this scheme is owned by the federal government which had been part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, as confirmed by the administration’s crypto czar, billionaire David Sacks. Bitcoin will be the primary asset used but the reserve will also include four other coins – ether, XRP, solana and cardano. Sacks has confirmed that the strategy is to maximise the value of its holdings, without offering details, but that no such bitcoin will not be sold. Part of the President’s executive order was to develop “budget-neutral strategies” for acquiring additional bitcoin that have no “incremental costs” on taxpayers. By 4pm UK time today, it was trading at US$ 88.5k.

After Nasdaq-listed VinFast had agreed funding of around US$ 1.0 billion from UAE’s Emirates Driving Co, and other investors, it is expecting to sign a similar deal with a Qatari investment firm. This latest move, with JTA Investment Qatar, could result in a ‘potential equity investment’, as well as a ‘strategic partnership’ to support VinFast’s global expansion and technological development. On top of that, it is interested in another Vingroup entity – its portfolio of hotels and resorts, amusement parks and entertainment clusters. JTA Investment Qatar offers financing solutions in sectors such as energy, technology, infrastructure and tourism. The Vietnamese EV maker currently has two cars in the UAE – the VF8 Plus and the VF8 Eco – with prices starting at US$ 47.5k; 97k vehicles have been sold to date. The new funding will obviously help VinFast bolster its financial position and move into new regional markets. Vingroup noted that any ‘collaboration will unlock significant opportunities for Vingroup and its subsidiaries to drive technological, infrastructural, and sustainable economic advancement in Vietnam, while establishing a foundation for international expansion.

There were red faces at Citibank last April when it was reported that the bank had mistakenly credited US$ 81 trillion to a customer’s account, when the actual amount should have been US$ 280. The error was reversed hours later after the transfer was missed by two employees and detected by a third employee ninety minutes after it was posted. The bank confirmed that no funds had left the bank, and it was disclosed as a “near miss” to the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Surprisingly, a total of ten near misses of US$ 1 billion or more occurred at Citi last year, according to the FT – down from thirteen registered in 2023.

In the biggest share sale on the Hong Kong bourse for more than four years, BYD Co raised US$ 5.6 billion, selling 129.8 million shares at US$ 43.12 each – a 7.8% discount on Monday’s closing price; the sale was several times over-subscribed. The company plans to use the fresh capital to expand its overseas business, invest in R&D, supplement its working capital and spend on general corporate purposes, It is reported that Dubai’s Al-Futtaim Family Office participated as a strategic investor and it seems that the two firms plan to build on their successful collaboration and transition into a strategic partnership, focusing on areas including new EVs. Long-only investors and sovereign-wealth funds also bought shares in the deal. Last month, BYD sold 161% more on the year, at 318k pure electric and hybrid passenger vehicle, as it hit a record 67.0k in overseas sales. Interestingly, YTD its shares have jumped 46%, compared to Tesla declining 29%.

Last year, Seven & i, which operates some 85k global outlets, has once again had to fend off a take-over bid. Last year, it was a failed US$ 40 billion bid by Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard; this time, the Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is facing another takeover by its Canadian rival and has announced a package including a US$ 13.2-billion share buyback, and an IPO of its US SEI unit that operate its North American convenience store business. It also confirmed plans to buy back US$ 13.2 billion of its own shares using funds generated by the announced IPO and other restructuring measures. The company also announced the sale of its non-convenience-store business – comprising supermarkets, restaurants and other assets – to US private investment firm Bain Capital. It is reported that ACT has raised its offer to US$ 47.0 billion but this has already been rejected. A successful bid would merge the 7-Eleven, Circle K and other franchises to create a global convenience store behemoth.

Last Friday, a US court ruled that Riju Ravindran, a top official of Indian tech firm Byju, and the brother of the company’s founder, Byju Raveendran, had violated his fiduciary duty to lenders by wrongly hiding US$ 533 million. It is alleged that he had fraudulently transferred at least part of the money to a small hedge fund based in Miami to keep it out of lenders’ hands from them. The case was brought by creditors on a defaulted US$ 1.2 billion loan, with the judge siding with the creditors, entitling them to a financial damages award from Byju, with the amount to be determined in a separate hearing. The Indian firm is in deep trouble, fighting bankruptcy proceedings both in its home country and the US. It is not clear how much the firm is worth in India, with the US lenders hoping to liquidate several domestic education software companies that Byju’s purchased for US$ 820 million a few years ago and recoup outstanding balances.

With US$ 383 million owing, and requiring payment by year-end, as part of a multibillion-dollar loan package, India’s Oyo Hotels is speeding up plans for an initial public offering which could be valued at around US$ 5.0 billion. Creditors, including Mizuho Financial Group Inc., insist that founder Ritesh Agarwal pay off the dues, if the startup does not have an IPO by October. It seems that the thirty-one-year-old Indian borrowed US$ 2.2 billion in 2019, with a guarantee from backer SoftBank Group Corp.’s boss Masayoshi Son, to increase his stake in Oyo and gain more strategic control over a company he built in his teens. Three years later, the loan was restructured but Agarwal has yet to pay back the first tranche. SoftBank is its largest shareholder, with a stake of more than 40%, with Agarwal’s having more than 30%. It has fully recovered from the Covid impact and posted a small profit for the year ending 31 March 2024, as sales recovered. Late last year, Agarwal injected about US$ 95 million into Oyo, via his Singapore-based investment firm.

On Monday, Mixue Ice Cream and Tea went public on the Hong Kong bourse, having raised US$ 444 million in its IPO – their biggest listing of the year; on its début day, the Chinese bubble tea chain, with 45k outlets across China and in eleven other countries, and more outlets than McDonald’s 43k+ and Starbucks’ 40.6k, saw its shares soar more than 40%. The company, founded in 1997, sells ice creams and drinks for an average of US$ 0.82 and US$ 0.65. Unlike Starbucks, which operates more than half of its stores directly, almost all of Mixue’s outlets are run by franchisees. Recent bubble tea chains, including its smaller rival, Guming, and Chabaidao, that have gone public, have seen their market caps decline in first day trading.

Boots is going private, and will no longer be traded on New York’s Nasdaq, as it is being bought for US$ 24 million, by Sycamore Partners, a private equity firm, from Walgreens Boots Alliance; the retailer has been listed on a stock exchange for at least one hundred years. It is expected that shareholders will receive US$ 11.45 per share, with the possibility of a further US$ 3.00, if other business sale conditions are met. In 2022, a sell-off of the Boots arm of the business from the Walgreens Boots Alliance was abandoned, and the following year, it announced the closure of three hundred outlets. Boots was acquired by Walgreens in 2014, and since 2015 it has lost 90% of its market cap.

Poland-based Pepco Group confirmed it was considering the sale of Poundland, the discount retail chain, with the owner noting that it faces an “increasingly challenging” retail landscape in the UK, and that it was examining all options for the eight hundred and twenty-five-strong chain, including a sale. Although its revenue stream came in at over US$ 2.0 billion, Pepco revealed a US$ 828 million charge to Poundland, with problems being exacerbated by the government’s hikes to employer national insurance contributions from April. Its chief executive, Stephan Borchert, confirmed, “there are definitely interested parties for this business.”

November saw the UK experiencing a shortage of Guinness; this month it is the shortage of bananas, down to bad weather conditions in supply countries such as Columbia, Costa Rica and Ecuador. Shoppers have been left disappointed after several Tesco stores ran out of bananas, one of their best-selling items. One interesting fact is that consumers buy over five million bananas a year of which 28%, 1.4 million, are wasted.

Barclays’ latest IT outages in the UK will cost the banker up to US$ 13 million in compensation payments to its customers for “inconvenience or distress”, caused by several days of disruption; this is expected to be the largest amount of compensation of any bank in the past two years. The glitch occurred towards the end of January. The crisis happened to coincide with payday for many and the deadline for self-assessment tax returns. The Treasury Committee of MPs was told that the problem was caused by “severe degradation” in the performance of their mainframe computer, which resulted in the failure of the bank’s online payments. The committee had approached the top nine banks and building societies for their comments and outage details. It was found that, over the previous two years, there had been one hundred and fifty-eight individual IT failures, leading to eight hundred and three hours of unplanned outages. NatWest and HSBC recorded the longest outages, at one hundred and ninety-four hours and one hundred and seventy-six hours of failure.

At the week-long National People’s Congress, President Xi Jinping set a 2025 economic target growth of “around 5%”, whilst also pledging to pump billions of dollars into its ailing economy, with further weakness inevitable on the back of Trump tariffs. The Chinese administration has been impacted by a quadruple whammy of low consumption, an ongoing, (but not going away) property crisis, sticky unemployment and a further 10% Trump tariff, following a similar levy last month. Almost immediately, Chinese retaliation saw 10%-15% tariffs on certain agricultural imports from the US, and it is estimated that continuing tariffs would result in Chinese exports – which had accounted for a nearly one trillion dollar trade surplus – declining by up to a third; it will also see it difficult for China to post a 5% growth in 2025, (having hit that number over the past two years) and may have to drive up domestic spending to get anywhere near the target figure.

At the Congress, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said consumption has been sluggish and pledged to “vigorously boost” household demand, noting that “domestically, the foundation for China’s sustained economic recovery and growth is not strong enough.” Beijing has already rolled out schemes to encourage its people to spend more, including allowing them to trade in and replace consumer goods like kitchen appliances, cars, phones and electronic devices. It will also see the government enriching the ordinary Chinese people’s pockets, with the aim of cutting the country’s reliance on exports and investment. It will also create more than twelve million jobs in cities, setting a target for urban unemployment at around 5.5% for 2025. It also plans to issue US$ 179 billion worth of T-Bonds, to help fund its stimulus measures, and allow local governments a 12.8% hike to US$ 605.8 billion in the amount they can borrow. Even after trying to keep its fiscal deficit – the difference between the government’s spending and revenue – at below 3.0%, it raised this by 1.0% to 4.0% of GDP, the highest level in decades.

Donald Trump may be happy to hear that a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holding company has agreed to sell most of its stake in two key ports, located at either end of the eighty-two km Panama Canal, to a group led by US investment firm BlackRock, and including Switzerland’s Terminal Investment Limited; the sum involved is in the region of US$ 22.8 billion. The deal includes a total of forty-three ports in twenty-three countries around the world, including the two canal terminals. Over recent weeks, Trump has made several arguments for retaking control of the canal and the surrounding area, including Chinese influence being a national security threat, the fact that US investment in the initial building of the canal justifies taking back control, and that US ships are being charged too much for using the waterway. Earlier in the year, the US President had complained that the major shipping route was under Chinese control and that his country should take control of it. Although not directly owned by the Chinese government, it operates under Chinese financial laws.

Because of his relationship with that scumbag, Jeffrey Epstein, former Barclays boss Jes Staley has begun a legal bid to overturn a 2023 Financial Conduct Authority ban from the UK’s financial services industry, along with a US$ 2.3 million fine; it had concluded that Staley had made misleading statements about his relationship with the disgraced financier in correspondence with the watchdog. (He also missed out on pay and bonus awards of US$ 23 million, after he left Barclays under a cloud). The banker claims that he had a “close professional relationship” with Epstein but denies they were friends. Their association dates back to a time when Epstein was a client of JPMorgan Chase’s private bank, which Staley headed before taking the role at Barclays in 2015.; two years earlier, he had left J.P. Morgan after more than thirty years. The ban by the FCA was based on two misleading statements over their relationship, namely over how close they were and that Mr Staley’s last contact with Epstein was “well before he joined Barclays in 2015”. The FCA’s ruling related to the contents of a letter sent by the then Barclays chairman in 2019, but reviewed by him, which summarised the depth of the two men’s ties in response to a request for “assurance” from the regulator. The FCA’s case includes more than 1k emails between the pair, some provided by JPMorgan and others from Epstein’s estate, in which Staley was said to have described their friendship as “profound” and referred to Epstein as “family”. Today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. told British regulators it believed Jes Staley might have been involved in Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes, shortly before the watchdog opened a formal investigation into the former Barclays Plc boss in 2019.

Defence companies have initially benefitted from the current Ukrainian debacle, as their market caps skyrocketed on the bourses of UK and Europe in Monday’s trading. The FTS 100 hit new record highs, as arms maker BAE Systems saw its share price rise as much as 17.5%, with its market cap climbing by US$ 7.53 billion; in comparison, Rolls Royce nudged up 6.0%. Meanwhile, on the FTSE 250, there were marked increases, of 10.3% and 9.3%, in the share values of defence technology company QinetiQ and defence support business Babcock International. On the European bourses, shares of Germany’s largest defence company Rheinmetall jumped 18% while Italy’s Leonardo was up 15%. All this came after European leaders met in London a day earlier where UK Prime Minister Starmer announced a loan to Ukraine and a US$ 2.0 billion deal for a Belfast factory to supply missiles for the country’s fight against Russia; the UK had earlier announced it would increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP. On top of that, Chancellor Rachel Reeves had also announced an extra US$ 2.88 billion for the Ukrainian war effort, courtesy of Russian funds, frozen since the start of the full-scale war in February 2022.

In February, the US economy added 151k new jobs, with a marginal 0.1% uptick in unemployment to 4.1%. Donald Trump’s government cuts were the main driver for federal employment dipping 10k last month. Hiring was driven by healthcare and financial firms, with manufacturing sector adding 10k jobs. Although the numbers were largely in line with expectations, it does point that the labour market is indeed cooling. The buoyancy of the labour market to date, with a long running growth trend, surprised many analysts especially in an environment of price increases and high interest rates. Future months, with Donald Trump pulling the strings, will prove to be interesting reading, as he noted, “I think the labour market’s going to be fantastic but it’s going to have high-paying manufacturing jobs as opposed to government jobs.”

Citing that time has run out, on Monday Donald Trump confirmed that he was moving forward to levy 25%, starting the following day, 04 March on goods imported from Canada and Mexico; an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is also expected to come into force. All three countries have also said they will retaliate against the US tariffs, raising the prospect of a widening trade war. Canada plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against US imports of US$ 155 billion, with the first tranche of US$ 30 billion ready immediately to be levied on everyday goods like pasta, clothing and perfume. Beijing had already prepared countermeasures, announcing that it would slap fresh tariffs on a range of agricultural imports from the US. Furthermore, the Finance Ministry confirmed that “additional 15% tariffs will be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton,” and that “additional 10% tariffs will be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products”. President Trump has also announced a 25% charge on all steel and aluminium imports, which is meant to come into effect on 12 March. In addition, he has threatened to impose custom “reciprocal” tariffs on individual countries, as well as 25% tariffs on the EU. For the time being the UK has avoided any tariffs. All three major US indexes fell on Monday – the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 1.4%, the S&P 500 1.75% and the Nasdaq 2.6%. No doubt global trade is in for a rocky ride!

If Trump’s tariffs aim is to rebuild and modernise US manufacturing, then it will take some time to see any positive results – capex items, such as new factories, could take years to build. Thus, in the short-term, the consequences will be higher consumer costs (someone has to bear the extra tariff costs), rising inflation, as prices move north, and lower economic activity, at a time when the US economy could already be in contraction. In recent weeks, high-frequency measures of activity have suggested the US economy is facing a very sharp slowdown. Indeed, the “GDPNow” Nowcast measure from the Atlanta Fed recently pointed to the US economy contracting at an annualised rate of 2.8% in Q1.

On 26 March, Rachel Reeves is set to release her spring statement and it seems that she will announce several billion pounds in spending cuts, including from the welfare budget; this move is almost inevitable so that the Chancellor can come within her borrowing limit that includes maintaining a US$ 12.90 billion (GBP 10.00 billion) headroom; the rise in borrowing costs, with inflation hitting a ten-month 3.0% high in January, has eroded this balance to almost nil. So as to maintain her self-imposed fiscal rules, she cannot borrow for day-to-day spending, leaving spending cuts as one of her only options. On Wednesday, Treasury advised the Office of Budget Responsibility of the proposed cuts, ahead of it providing a financial forecast on the same day as the spring statement. Accordingly, she will have to consider spending cuts and reports indicate that the Starmer administration will be looking at a four-point plan – welfare cuts, planning reforms, slashing red tape and reducing the number of Whitehall mandarins. To date, the Prime Minister has refused to say whether further tax rises, or spending cuts, would be imposed. The way the government finances are, the Chancellor has to reduce the amount the government borrows – but it appears that because she has already borrowed up to her limit, any further borrowing will be at the expense of having to cut benefits, not helped by worse growth than expected. Basically, for every billion of additional borrowing that the OBR thinks she is going to need, she will have to utilise spending cuts, almost certainly including welfare cuts. The fundamentals are not looking good, and now It’s Getting Serious!

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It’s Time To Go Now!

Posted on February 28, 2025 by howesdubai

It’s Time To Go Now! 28 February 2025

The jury is out whether the Dubai real estate market is slowing down, after four years of a post-pandemic rally, and whether prices and rentals have now peaked. Two things are certain. Last year’s record of 180.9k transactions, worth US$ 142.26 billion, will be surpassed, in 2025, but the 36% and 27% increases posted will be lower. However, the number of units handed over this year will be 50% higher than the estimated 45k figure for 2024, whilst price/rental rises will be higher in 2025 but at a slower pace than in the previous years. The market cannot cope with say 30% annual rises – if that were the case, a property valued at 100 today will be worth 287.93 in five years’ time, equating to an annual 37.59% increase. People have to realise that that the sector is not immune from economic reasoning and the property cycle cannot see records broken every year. A slowdown is inevitable but the questions are when and whether it will be a measured exercise or a hard landing; the answers are sometime before 2027 and the latter will be dependent on global economic circumstances – if there is a major global slowdown, on par with the 2008 GCC, then it could be a crash landing, if not it will be a period of stabilisation, with minimal movements in prices.

Palma Developments has launched a US$ 1.36 billion project in Jumeirah Islands – the Serenia District, encompassing a 600k sq ft area. It will have a 3.5 million sq ft built up area, comprising six integrated towers – the Serenia Signature Clubhouse, Health & Social zone, Sports & Recreation spaces, Family Oasis, Nature Discovery zone, and a Wellness Retreat.

According to Manrre Logistics Fund, warehouses and grade A logistics facilities will witness price rises of up to 10% in the UAE this year, attributable to the triple whammy of a shortage of Grade A units, low vacancy rates and strong demand from domestic/international players. New demand is from e-commerce, manufacturing and chemical firms. The consultancy noted that “all industrial areas have a shortage of Grade A logistics facilities. There is an average vacancy rate between 4.0% to 2.5% only. In the next twelve to eighteen months, there will be some ease due to new supply”. It expects that because there is just a 3% vacancy rate for Grade A assets, with logistics, e-commerce and multinationals driving demand, rents had jumped by between 25% – 30% last year with a further 5% – 10% expected in 2025. Some analysts see a possible UAE shortfall of forty million sq ft. In contrast, there is a lot of vacancy in the low and old assets industrial areas, and since the demand at the premium end is so high, (with supply limited), some will be considering to speed up the process by purchasing old warehouses and upgrading them.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi Industrial and Logistics 2024-2025, a Knight Frank report, indicated that demand for industrial and logistics real estate peaked in Q4, accounting for 34% of the year’s total. 27% of the market was taken by two sectors – manufacturing and logistics, (15% and 12%) – with a further four sectors, (services, trading, construction, and automotive), each accounting for around 6%. Size-wise, 50k – 100k sq ft represented 31% of the new space, followed by 25k sq ft and 25k – 50k sq ft.

Bids for the 215-key Palazzo Versace Dubai hotel were closed on Wednesday, with a US$ 300 million base price – 18.0% lower than when it was offered for auction last year. The earlier auction processes last year were pulled because there were no viable bids on the table. It is reported that the current management will not be immediately impacted by the auction activities, with the current management agreement running to March 2028; the residences attached to the hotel are not part of the auction. With the government recently having confirmed that several properties and plots in the area would be re-designated as freehold, from their leasehold status, has piqued interest not only for the hotel but for the Al Jadaf area.

It appears that Dubai service charges will again head north, driven by an increase in operational costs including maintenance of common areas, district cooling charges and high utility costs; the increase may be as high as 10%. According to Driven Properties, the highest service charges are at Bulgari Resorts and Residence in Jumeirah Bay Island at US$ 14.63 per sq ft, followed by Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Downtown and Bluewaters The lowest rates are to be seen in Jumeirah Village Circle, Marjan, Jumeirah Lake Towers and Dubai South.

The Federal Authority for Government Human Resources has officially announced the working hours for government employees during the Holy Month of Ramadan this year. With Ramadan definitely starting tomorrow, 01 March, federal government working hours will be from 9:00am to 2:30pm, Monday to Thursday, while operations on Fridays will run from 9:00am to 12:00 noon. Flexible working hours will continue into Ramadan, and up to 30% of federal employees will be allowed to work remotely on Fridays. Meanwhile, private sector employees will have their working days reduced by two hours, as directed by the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation. Private sector companies may, in accordance with their interests and the nature of their work, apply flexible work patterns or remote work within the limits of the daily working hours specified during the month of Ramadan.

The latest project announced by Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority is a US$ 217 million investment for the Al Qudra Street Development Project. It will extend from Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road to Emirates Road via Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan Al Nahyan Street.

For the fourth consecutive year, flydubai posted record-breaking 2024 numbers, with a 16% hike in pre-tax profit, to US$ 681 million, and a total revenue of US$ 3.49 billion, 15% higher on the year; the carrier posted a 15% rise in EBITDA, at US$ 1.12 billion and all this despite the ongoing 737 MAX delivery issues. The main factors for this major improvement were the strength of flydubai’s diverse network, as well as its strong and agile business model. As a percentage, fuel costs were 4.0% lower at 28% of operating costs, due to lower average fuel price, with a closing cash balance at US$ 1.28 billion. There was an 11.0% increase to 15.4 million passengers using flydubai in 2024, as the airline added ten new destinations. It received four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft which were delivered in the first half of 2024. These aircraft were from the backlog of previous years, with the carrier expecting extensive delays, noting that it did not receive “any of the aircraft that were contractually scheduled to be delivered in 2024 due to ongoing challenges with Boeing’s delivery schedule”. The carrier’s current order book stands at one hundred and twenty-seven Boeing 737 aircraft to be delivered over the next decade, in addition to thirty Boeing 787 Dreamliners, following its first wide-body aircraft order valued at US$ 11 billion, starting from 2027. Whilst expecting “another positive” growth year in 2025, chief executive, Ghaith al Ghaith, noted that, “our strategic plans are highly influenced by the manufacturer’s ability to deliver on their promise to bring the aircraft delivery schedules back on track and clear the backlog. flydubai will receive twelve new Boeing 737s in 2025 to continue growing its fleet, replace some of its existing aircraft and support its network expansion plans”.

With the important target of strengthening the country’s position as a leading global hub for digital payments, Al Etihad Payments has launched the UAE’s first domestic card scheme. It will be available in debit, pre-paid and credit card form, and can be used in all payment channels such as online transactions, ATM withdrawals, and point-of-sale terminals; the scheme can be activated locally and internationally. The subsidiary of the Central Bank of the UAE has other aims to offer public and private clients:

a secure, efficient, and innovative payment solution
lower transaction costs by providing an effective local alternative
increase efficiency by accelerating local payment processes using the UAESWITCH
support economic growth
stimulate innovation in the field of payments
promote e-commerce
develop financial inclusion
provide financial services that meet all requirements of the society

There will be two types of Jaywan cards – mono-badge for local and GCC usage, and co-badge for international payment schemes.

DEWA has posted that its US$ 387 million Hatta pumped-storage hydroelectric power underwent operational tests last month and is 96% complete. The utility announced that it will start exporting power to the Dubai grid in April which will support the emirate’s clean energy and net zero carbon strategies.

Parkin has introduced a new mobile app, with several innovative features including a ‘park now, pay later’ option and real-time parking finder. It will also allow users to pay parking fines, dispute charges, and request refunds. The Parkin app is available for download on iOS and Android platforms.

Almost nine years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. Today, March retail prices have dipped, between 0.4% and 1.7% (for diesel), compared to February prices. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for March is as follows:

Super 98 US$ 0.744 from US$ 0.747 in Mar up 4.6% YTD US$ 0.711

Special 95 US$ 0.711 from US$ 0.717 in Mar up 4.4% YTD US$ 0.681

E-plus 91 US$ 0.692 from US$ 0.695 in Mar up 4.5% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel US$ 0.755 from US$ 0.768 in Mar up 3.4% YTD US$ 0.730

The Dubai Financial Services Authority added a further one hundred and thirty five entities to bring the total number of regulated firm to more than nine hundred – a credible 31% hike in numbers. This growth indicates the DFSA’s ongoing commitment to strengthen the financial services sector within the Dubai International Financial Centre, whilst enhancing and maintaining robust regulatory standards. The Authority also authorised nine hundred and forty-six individuals and registered seventeen Designated Non-Financial Business or Professional corporate services providers. Fadel Al Ai, the DFSA Chairman noted, “the DFSA remains steadfast in its commitment to supporting the growth of the DIFC, contributing to the prosperity of Dubai and the UAE.”

With consolidated revenues 10.1% higher, (and up 12.6% in constant exchange rates), at US$ 16.13 billion, e&’s 2024 profit came in 4.3% higher at US$ 2.94 billion. Its subscriber base jumped 5.4%, over the year, to exceed fifteen million, whilst globally, its customer base grew 11.7% to 189.3 million. Its chairman Jassem Mohamed Bu Ataba Alzaabi, noted that, “our investments in AI ecosystems, intelligent platforms, and industry-defining solutions reinforce our role as a catalyst for change”.

The Dubai Taxi Company has signed a five-year strategic partnership with Dubai Airports, to be the exclusive provider of taxi services at Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International. Last year, as ninety-three million passengers used both airports, they were responsible for six million limousine and taxi trips, with a further 33.3% increase in numbers, to eight million, expected by 2029; projected revenues, over the next five years, have been forecast to be US$ 681 million. DTC operates a dedicated airport fleet of some nine hundred taxis, including seven hundred dedicated airport taxis.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 24 February, three points lower, (0%), higher the previous week, shed forty-one points (0.8%), to close the trading week on 5,318 points by Friday 28 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.38 higher the previous five weeks, shed US$ 0.23, closing on US$ 3.65 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.76 US$ 2.11 and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02 US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.39. On 28 February, trading was at three hundred and sixty-five million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and ninety million dollars, compared to three hundred and twelve million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-eight million dollars on 21 February.

In 2024, the bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 28 February at 5,318 was 1,255 points (30.9%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.49, to close on 28 February at US$ 3.65. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2024 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed February 2024 at US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.49.

By Friday, 28 February 2025, Brent, US$ 0.39 lower (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.40 (1.9%) to close on US$ 72.99. Gold, US$ 55 (1.9%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 94 (3.2%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,845 on 28 February 2025.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 1.82 (2.4%), to close 28 February 2025 on US$ 72.99. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of February, the yellow metal was trading at US$ 2,832 – US$ 208 (7.9%) higher YTD.

Bitcoin sank below US$ 80k on Friday for the first time in more than three months, but ended the day on US$ 83,914;; the main driver for the sell-off was increased volatility in global markets. This was the lowest level it had been since 11 Novemebr2024 and well down on the US$ 109k plus, posted last month. Trump’s presidential victory in early November was a signal for crypto to surge since he had promised, on the campaign trail, to free up regulations surrounding digital tokens and pledged to make the US the crypto capital of the world.

Dubai-based cryptocurrency firm Bybit, and the world’s second largest, confirmed hackers stole US$ 1.5 billion worth of digital currency, in what could be the biggest crypto theft in history; the firm has said its funds were “safe”, and that it would refund any of those affected, noting that “all of clients assets are 1 to 1 backed, we can cover the loss.” The previous record was a US$ 620 million heist of Ethereum and USD Coin from the Ronin Network in 2022. It seems that hackers stole from its Ethereum coin digital wallet, but the firm’s founder, Ben Zhou, said the money could be covered by the firm, which holds US$ 20.0 billion in assets, or by a loan from partners. Bybit says it has more than sixty million global users and offers access to various cryptocurrencies. The exchange has offered a recovery bounty programme, as it called on the “brightest minds in cyber security and crypto analytics” to join the global hunt for the hackers. A 10% reward of the amount recovered will be paid to cyber and network security experts who help retrieve the stolen booty. Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority is “actively monitoring” the situation, while noting that the hack remains a “highly evolving matter that we will continue to closely track until it stabilises”. Vara clarified that Bybit had not been granted a regulatory licence in Dubai.

Over the next four years, Apple is set to invest US$ 500 billion, (its “largest-ever spend commitment”), which will see a new advanced, 250k sq ft manufacturing factory in Texas, expansion of its data centre capacity in North Carolina, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona and Nevada, as well as the creation of 20k jobs, with the “vast majority” of roles in R&D, software and AI. The new factory is set to produce servers that were “previously manufactured outside the US” to support Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI system. The tech firm said the sum included everything from spending on suppliers to Apple TV+ productions and also confirmed that it would be doubling, to US$ 10.0 billion, its support for a fund dedicated to US manufacturing, which it created in Trump’s first term.

Microsoft has confirmed that, in May, it will close its video-calling service, Skype – released in 2003. It quickly became one of world’s most popular websites and allowed people to make free global voice calls, via their computers, and formerly had hundreds of millions of users. Microsoft acquired the firm for US$ 8.5 billion in 2011, with Skype becoming integrated with the company’s other products such as Xbox and Windows devices. Users can now use MS Teams.

The 2024 year was an impressive year for Nvidia, with a record high revenue of US$ 130.5 billion, attributable to robust demand for its chips to power AI in data centres. In its fiscal Q4, which ended last month, the firm posted a staggering revenue of US$ 39.3 billion, with net income at US$ 22.0 billion, as the tech juggernaut successfully ramped up “massive-scale” production of its new top-of-the-line Blackwell processors for powering AI, logging billions in sales. Its Q1 forecast sees revenue at US$ 43.0 billion. Nvidia rode the wave of the AI boom stock prices, until a steep sell-off in January, triggered by the sudden success of DeepSeek – but these latest figures will ameliorate market concerns. However, high-end versions of Nvidia’s chips face US export restrictions to China. Nvidia relies heavily on Taiwan’s TSMC for the production of its graphics processing units, raising concerns it faces geopolitical risks.

Saying he wanted to see Starbucks, (which employs some 360k), return to its roots as a coffee house, chief executive Brian Niccol, wants to shrink its menu by nearly a third over the next year, hoping to reduce wait times and improve quality and consistency. (His first step this week was to axe the Royal English Breakfast Latte, White Hot Chocolate and several kinds of blended frappuccinos – a major move by a person whose pay packet is estimated to be over US$ 100 million). With flagging sales in its home market, 8% lower in Q4, the US, and elsewhere, cost cutting is imperative, so Starbucks is cutting 1.1k jobs and simplifying its menu in the US and at the same time hopes it “make way for innovation, help reduce wait times, improve quality and consistency, and align with our core identity as a coffee company.” Starbucks’ supremo also wrote that “our intent is to operate more efficiently, increase accountability, reduce complexity and drive better integration”.

Aldi, the UK’s leading supermarket chain, has unveiled new pay rates that will make its employees the best-paid in the supermarket sector, as from tomorrow, 01 March. It will pay all shop workers at least US$ 16.16 an hour nationally, and US$ 17.80, within the M25, with those with a longer service record seeing rises to US$ 17.31, (nationally) and US$ 18.18; entry staff will see a 1.0% rise to US$ 16.16, after Sainsbury’s had lifted their entry-level hourly wage to US$ 15.97.

What also angers a lot of energy consumers is not only the profits they make but also the remuneration packages of senior management. For example, this week Susan Davy, the chief executive of water company Pennon, the parent company of South West Water, addressed MPs on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee. She was in charge of the water utility responsible for an outbreak of cryptosporidium that resulted in an eight-week boil water notice for parts of Devon and left hundreds sick last May. She also acknowledged that the company had “a lot more to do” on customer service and engagement and “isn’t where it needs to be” on environmental performance. She was also asked about her 2023 58.4% pay rise to US$ 1.09 million and defended it on the basis that she did not take her bonus and that it was deserved as it had been set by a remuneration committee, rather than by her, and she was “well paid for what is a very responsible and accountable role”. She added there was no means for customer bill rises to be considered in awarding her pay. South West Water bills are set to rise 32% over the next five years.

The Dutch-based tech investor, Prosus, which already had a 28% stake in global rival Delivery Hero, has confirmed that it had made an all-cash offer, and valued Just Eat at US$ 4.27 billion. This equates to a 22% premium on the highest share value over the previous three months, which was trading on the Amsterdam exchange at US$ 21.31. Just Eat, Europe’s biggest meal delivery firm, said the offer was unanimously supported by its management and board; it also confirmed that its current leadership would remain in place, and it would continue to be based in Amsterdam. The firm also announced a 35% rise in 2024 pre-tax profits to US$ 482.86 million, citing an improvement in its key UK and Ireland market, mainly due to lower costs of fulfilling orders and more efficient marketing. The buying firm commented that “we believe that combining Prosus’s strong technical and investment capabilities with Just Eat Takeaway.com’s leading brand position in key European markets will create significant value for our customers, drivers, partners, and shareholders.” It also added that it wanted to create a “European champion” for food delivery.

A sure indicator, that Chinese travel demand has bounced back, was figures, in January, that several major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, had returned double-digit growth in passenger capacity and turnover, with strong performance on international routes. Air China, and its subsidiaries, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines posted 10.0%, 11.8% and 12.5% annual increases in passenger capacity and hikes of 12.1%, 19.7% and 17.7% in passenger turnover. Hainan Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines also registered solid growth, with capacity increases of 18.7%, 18.7% and 17.2% respectively. Apart from the Chinese New Year, occurring last month, the triple whammy of increased capacity, visa facilitation, and the easing of travel restrictions helped boost international travel.

Singapore’s biggest bank, DBS employs a total of around 41k people and currently has up to 9k temporary and contract workers. This week, it announced over 4k roles, over the next three years, will be lost, as AI takes on more work currently done by humans. Permanent staff are not expected to be affected by the cuts, with DBS expecting to recruit some 1k AI personnel to boost its current eight hundred number and forecasts that the measured economic impact of these to exceed US$ 745 million this year. AI has come to the fore in recent times and the IMF believe that last year, it affected nearly 40% of all global jobs, with its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warning that “in most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality”. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the BoE, noted that while there are risks with AI, “there is great potential with it”, adding that AI will not be a “mass destroyer of jobs” and human workers will learn to work with new technologies.

A new report from Blume Ventures notes that nearly 72% of the 1.4 billion Indian population lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services, and that only about 10% of the population could be counted as consuming class. The study also concluded that another three hundred million are “emerging” or “aspirant” consumers, but they are reluctant spenders who have only just begun to open their purse strings, as click-of-a-button digital payments make it easy to transact. Surprisingly, it also noted that the consuming class is “deepening” not “widening”, indicating that the country’s wealthy class is not growing in numbers but growing in wealth, with the poor losing purchasing power, supporting the theory that India’s post-pandemic recovery has been K-shaped. Two interesting features noted in the report were the booming sales of ultra-luxury gated housing, with affordable homes now constituting just 18% of India’s overall market, compared with 40% five years ago. The other being that the country has been getting increasingly more unequal, with the top 10% of Indians now holding 57.7% of national income compared with 34% in 1990, as the bottom half have seen their share of national income fall from 22.2% to 15%. The report also noted that India’s middle class, being squeezed out, as wages have remained flat, with the middle 50% of the country’s tax-paying population having seen its income stagnate in absolute terms over the past decade, implying a halving of income in real terms; this is one of the main reasons why the net financial savings of Indian households are approaching a fifty-year low.

In its aim to slash the size of the federal workforce, the Internal Revenue Services has already seen 6k laid off, during a period which is in the middle of the tax season, as millions of Americans file their returns. This week, the defence department axed more than 5k jobs, as part of a goal to reduce its nearly million-strong civilian workforce by up to 8%. Elon Musk had been appointed to lead DOGE, (Department of Government Efficiency), to implement the layoffs as part of a cost-cutting drive.

Last Saturday, US government workers received an email asking them to list their accomplishments from the past week or resign! Earlier, Elon Musk had posted that employees would “shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.” The American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union representing federal employees, criticised the message as “cruel and disrespectful” and vowed to challenge any “unlawful terminations” of federal employees. Nevertheless, Trump earlier said that a crowd of supporters at Cpac that the work of federal employees had been inadequate because some of them work remotely at least some of the time, and that “we’re removing all of the unnecessary, incompetent and corrupt bureaucrats from the federal workforce”.

He also added, “we want to make government smaller, more efficient,” and “we want to keep the best people, and we’re not going to keep the worst people.”

As the Starmer government has promised a purge of regulators in a bid to get the UK economy moving again, there are reports that the Payment Systems Regulator, which employs about one hundred and sixty people, could be scrapped and incorporated into the Financial Conduct Authority. The financial decision to abolish the UK payments watchdog is expected in the coming weeks. The aim of the total exercise is to cut red tape and stimulate economic growth, with the first casualty last month being Marcus Bokkerink, the chairman of the Competition and Markets Authority, because it was felt that the body was paying too little heed to UK competitiveness. Since then, both the chair and chief executive of the Financial Ombudsman Service have announced plans to step down. It is reported that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will soon order an audit of roughly one hundred and thirty regulators across the economy to assess whether they were sufficiently focused on growth. In December, the PM and Chancellor sent a joint letter to about fifteen major regulators – including Ofcom, Ofgem and Ofwat – demanding ideas for how to remove bureaucracy from the economy and more proactively encourage growth.

With European January sales almost halving, and facing increased pressure from Chinese EVs and other competitors, Tesla saw its shares slump 9% on Tuesday, bringing its market cap to less than US$ 1 trillion for the first time in three months. Another potential reason for the fall may be down to potential buyers taking a ‘principled stand’ against its owner’s political position. According to trade body Acea, even total European EV sales rose by more than a third last month, Tesla sales across the EU, EFTA and the UK fell more than 45%, and more than 50% in the EU alone; last year, Tesla sales declined for the first time in more than a decade.

With industry regulator Ofgem increasing the price cap for the third time in a row, the average annual energy bill will rise to US$ 2,339 from April; this equates to a monthly US$ 11.70 rise, or 6.4% higher on the year; overall typical bills will be US$ 201 higher, on the year – the first time since records began in 2022 that the April cap has been higher the January one; the lucky four million, who fixed the cost of energy units in November, will not have to pay, unlike the seven million users who will be charged. Average households have paid US$ 3,795 more for energy since 2020, with the energy regulator estimating that the average household will have to find for their energy will reach an estimated US$ 3,815 by the end of June 2025. The energy regulator estimates Europe has seen a price spike due to strong demand in recent months, driven by colder than average weather.

If energy prices did not present enough problems for UK consumers, April will see both council taxes and water bills also move higher which may be partly offset by marginal rises in the minimum and living wages. On top of that, employers’ national insurance contributions will also move north with a 1.2% hike to 15.0%.

Eleven years after he was forced out as the chairman of the Co-op Bank, Paul Flowers, has had his day in court and has been jailed for three years on fraud charges. At the time, there were claims of inappropriate expenses and illegal drugs allegations, and this week the septuagenarian admitted eighteen counts of fraud, worth over US$ 125k. He committed the offences against an elderly and vulnerable friend, Margaret Jarvis, as executor of her will. She trusted Flowers because of his high-profile public roles and he went on splurging his ill-gotten gains on drugs, holidays and gifts for himself. In 2017, he had hit the financial headlines because of his role at the bank which had to be bailed out by US hedge funds, following which he was banned from the financial services industry by the City watchdog. Coincidentally, he was also a former Methodist minister but not the first person of cloth to hit the financial headlines in recent times – Paula Vennels, the disgraced and scandal-ridden Post Office CEO, was an ordained Anglican priest.

Already facing a 10% tariff, China has been hit with a further 10% salvo, with the US President raising the stake; he has also intimated that he will move forward with a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, which are set to come into effect on 04 March. These three trading partners of the US account for more than 40% of its imports. If they go ahead, the impact will be felt more in Mexico and Canada, whilst higher prices in the US are inevitable, with domestic consumer confidence being damaged, and the global markets will be spooked.

There was a dramatic and extraordinary ending to the week at the White House. After relatively soft meetings with Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, Donald Trump met Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, today. He had come to see the US President and sign both a ceasefire agreement, along with a rare metals’ deal, worth billions. What transpired was an ugly confrontation that ended in chaos and seriously threatened any peace talks, at least in the short-term. No doubt it made great television but did nothing for diplomacy, but Instead, he was unceremoniously kicked out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, and told It’s Time To Go Now!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged business, Finance, indian-middle-class, investing, news, real-estate, religion, tariffs, uk-energy, volodymyr-zelensky | Leave a comment

Hit The Road Jack!

Posted on February 21, 2025 by howesdubai

Hit The Road Jack! 21 February 2025

Under the new Smart Rental Index, launched last month, Dubai landlords now have to notify tenants ninety days before the expiry of tenancy contracts to increase rentals; this regulation applies even if the property qualifies for a rent increase under the new index. This week, the Dubai Land Department clarified that where the landlord had provided the required ninety-day notice – and the previous index supported the increase – but the new index does not, the renewal date will be determined based on two points: either the previous index will be applied, if the contract was renewed before 2025, or the new index will be enforced if the contract is renewed during 2025. Last year, Dubai recorded an 8.0% hike in the number of lease contracts to over 900k. The new index uses various factors when calculating the applicable rent increase, including rental contract values in the building, the average rental values in the area, and the building classification. It also uses AI to deliver accurate and standardised rental price assessments to cover all residential areas, including key districts, special development zones, and free zones. This modus operandi ensures fairness, and strengthens confidence in Dubai’s real estate sector, as well as it mitigates the impact of inflation, with the aim of bringing stability to rentals and maintaining them at a more realistic level. It is estimated that rents increased, for the sixteenth consecutive quarter in Q4, with villa and apartment rents jumping 16% and 13% respectively.

Abu Dhabi-based Aldar has released ‘The Wilds’ – its third foray into the Dubai market, (in partnership with Dubai Holding), following the success of the ‘Haven’ and ‘Athlon’. ‘The Wilds’ will have about 1.7k homes, (each one surrounded by eco corridors and green spaces), including five- and six-bedroom mansions, designed by Lebanese architect Nabil Gholam. Prices for three-bedroom villas will start at US$ 1.4 million, and US$ 2.72 million to US$ 3.0 million for more premium options. The development will see an international school, along with outdoor learning spaces and eco-focused facilities. There will also be a pond and dry stream habitats, as well as manmade bird nests and bee-keeping zones.

Yesterday, Azizi Developments introduced its international launch of the world’s second-tallest tower in seven global cities – Dubai, Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo. Dubai’s Burj Azizi, slated for completion by 2028 and located on SZR, is a one hundred and thirty-one plus storey tower that will encompass residential, hotel, retail, and entertainment spaces. On the residential side, it will house apartments with one, two, or three bedrooms, and for every twenty floors of residences, an amenity floor is planned, consisting of swimming pools, with sauna and steam room, a gym/yoga centre, a spa, a games room including billiards, chess and ping-pong, a business centre, a kids’ play area, a cinema, a restaurant/coffee shop, and a supermarket. Burj Azizi will also house an all-suite seven-star hotel inspired by seven cultural themes: Arabic, Chinese, Persian, Indian, Turkish, French, and Russian. It also revealed the prices of apartments in the world’s second-tallest tower Burj Azizi. The prices of ultra-luxury units start from US$ 1,948 per sq ft, while the highest has been priced at US$ 9,264 per sq ft. Apartment prices start at US$ 2.04 million, while the most expensive has been priced at US$ 42.50 million. There are reports that on the first day of sales, one hundred and ten units were sold, including a US$ 17 million penthouse.

According to Skyscrapercenter’s data, Dubai is home to thirty-three towers taller than three hundred-plus metres and is the number one in the world. It also boasts having fourteen of the one hundred tallest global towers including Burj Khalifa, Marina 101, Princess Tower, 23 Marina, Elite Residence, The Address Boulevard, Ciel Tower, Almas Tower, Gevora Hotel, II Primo Tower, JW Marriott Marquis Hotel Tower 1, JW Marriott Marquis Hotel Tower 2, Emirates Tower One and The Torch.

Corinthia Hotels and Dubai General Properties have announced a mixed-use one hundred and two storey tower development, including a hotel and branded residences, located on SZR near to the Museum of the Future. The development, with a 330k sq mt built up area and set to open in 2030, will comprise a one hundred and twenty-key luxury hotel, alongside Corinthia-branded serviced penthouses and apartments. It will boast the world’s highest outdoor sky pool, at over five hundred mt, with panoramic 360-degree views The property is owned by Dubai General Properties LLC, while Corinthia Hotels will provide management and expertise to operate the development. Another Corinthia Group subsidiary, QP, a multidisciplinary design and project management firm, will provide project management and design services.

As part of its extension plans, that include Maldives and Saudia Arabia, Aman is set to invest US$ 436 million on a residential project in Jumeirah 2. Located at the end of Dubai Water Canal, the project will comprise one hundred hotel suites and eighty-two Aman-branded residences. Handover date for Aman Residences Dubai is slated for December 2028, with building to start in Q3. The project is being developed by H&H Investments and Development, through its subsidiary Blackwood Development.

According to Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Chairman of the UAE Tourism Council, hotels in the UAE generated just over US$ 1.0 billion, (4.0% higher on the year), in the ten months to October 2024. Occupancy was 2.7% higher at 78.0%. The Minister was chairing the first 2025 UAE Tourism Council meeting, in which he highlighted the ongoing expansion of Emirati tourism across various sectors, supporting the National Tourism Strategy 2031.

Monday saw the opening of the five-day Gulfood 2025, with a visit from HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, where he commended the exhibition’s impressive growth over the years, noting that the ongoing edition marks the largest in its history. The event, which as usual was being held at the Dubai World Trade Centre, will feature 4.6k exhibitors, showcasing over one million products, from one hundred and six countries. The thirtieth edition of Gulfood goes under the theme ‘The Next Frontier in Food’. HH Sheikh Mohammed highlighted the value of the event, as a key platform for building partnerships and striking deals within one of the most vital sectors globally. The Dubai Ruler emphasised that the UAE always strives to remain a global hub for building partnerships and exchanging knowledge to address present needs and prepare the ground for a prosperous future for humanity. He highlighted how major exhibitions, hosted by Dubai, offer an ideal opportunity to exchange ideas, discover new opportunities, and build partnerships with the private sector across the globe.

On the sidelines of Gulfood 2025, it was reported that Dubai Industrial City had attracted more than US$ 95 million in investments from the food and beverage sector last year. The region’s leading industrial and logistics ecosystem announced that, last year, it attracted more than twenty-five F&B customers, leasing 1.7 million sq ft of high-quality industrial spaces – an indicator of the growing business confidence in Dubai’s position as a hub for innovation and market expansion. Located close to Al Maktoum International Airport, Jebel Ali Port, an Etihad Rail freight terminal, and key regional roadways, DIC hosts more than 1.1k local, regional, and international manufacturing companies and over three hundred and fifty operational factories. In 2024, the two notable F&B investments at DIC were:

Silver Line Gate Group’s integrated hub to annually produce more than 100k tonnes of dairy products, including milk products and butter, each year
Pure Ice Cream, the manufacturer of brands such as Kwality Ice Creams and Hershey’s Ice Cream, signed a musataha agreement to launch a production facility. It will be among the UAE’s largest ice cream factories upon launch in 2026, increasing Pure Ice Cream’s annual capacity by 300%

President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, were in attendance at the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the two countries. The CEPA was signed by the Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy. As a result of this agreement, and with immediate effect, 99% of Ukrainian imports of UAE goods and 97% of Ukrainian exports to the UAE will be exempt from customs duties. The net financial result is estimated at a US$ 369 million contribution to UAE’s GDP and US$ 874 million to Ukraine’s economy. It will also create new opportunities for cooperation in sectors such as infrastructure, heavy industry, aviation, aerospace, and IT. Last year, bilateral trade topped US$ 372 million. There have been twenty-four CEPAs signed to date, covering a marketplace of more than 2.5 billion people, all part of the country’s broader efforts to expand its global trade partnerships and enhance investment opportunities across multiple sectors so that non-oil trade will hit AED 4 trillion (US$ 1.09 trillion) by 2031.

According to the 2025 Edelman Trust in Government Report, the UAE, with eighty-two points, was ranked third in the government trust rankings, behind Saudi Arabia and China. Furthermore, the country remains the most trusted institution among four key sectors which also include business, media, and NGOs. The annual survey, now in its twenty-fifth year, was carried out online between 25 October to 16 November last year and garnered responses from over 33k individuals, across twenty-eight countries, with approximately 1.15k respondents per country. In a social media post HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “Trust has been built over fifty years of legitimate work and achievement… and today, under the leadership of my brother [His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan], trust is strengthened… credibility is entrenched… and the people rally more around their government and leadership to create the best developmental experience and the highest standard of living for people worldwide.”

In 2024, Dubai International Financial Centre had its best ever year, posting a 1.82k increase in new registrations, to over 7k, with now over 46k being employed in DIFC. It registered record combined revenues, at US$ 485 million, with a 55.0% uplift in operating profit to US$ 36 million. Tech companies increased by an annual 38% to 1.25k. Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed noted that, “we remain committed to further enhancing an integrated global financial ecosystem that fosters innovation and reinforces Dubai’s standing as a future-focused international financial centre.”

The Dubizzle Group has acquired Hatla2ee, a leading Egyptian automotive portal. Its CEO MENA, Haider Khan, noted “Egypt’s dynamic automotive sector presents immense opportunities and by integrating Hatla2ee’s expertise with our technology-driven ecosystem, we aim to enhance the buying and selling experience for millions of users”. The Egyptian company, founded in 2016, and with over two million unique monthly visitors, offers a range of services including buying and selling of both new and used cars, along with car evaluations, financing options, and real-time market pricing insights.

Jebel Ali Port posted its highest container and breakbulk cargo volumes, in a decade, handling 15.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2024 – 68% higher on the year; the figure equates to nearly 18.0% of DP World’s total 2024 global container throughput of 88.3 million TEUs. Breakbulk cargo also saw significant growth, surging by 23% on the year to reach 5.4 million metric tonnes – the second-highest performance since 2015.The DP World entity continues to be the leading trade and logistics hub in the region.

As previously advised by Parkin, vehicle parking at major events in Dubai will be charged at US$ 6.81, (AED 25), an hour which came into effect on Monday, at the start of Gulfood 2025. The parking company confirmed that this new variable tariff applies at spots near concerts, festivals, conferences and exhibitions with the affected zones being 335X, 336X and 337X, and situated in areas surrounding Dubai World Trade Centre. Parkin confirmed, “special event parking zones, with adjusted rates, will be activated to accommodate higher vehicle volumes.”

In its first full year of operations since its IPO, 2024 saw Dubai Taxi Company’s financial indicators all moving higher, driven by the emirate’s population/tourism growth and continuing urban expansion. Revenue was 12.0% higher on the year, at US$ 599 million, and net profit, before tax and interest, up 18%, whilst EBITDA rose 19.0% to US$ 159 million, with a 27% margin. Reported net profit declined by 4% year-on-year to US$ 90 million, due to the introduction of corporate tax in and increased interest costs. DTC’s taxi segment, which has a 47% market share, saw a 12.0% rise in revenue to US$ 523 million, attributable to increased trip numbers, as it added a further seven hundred and forty-four vehicles in the year to bring its fleet numbers to 5.96k. The limousine segment posted an annual 8.0% revenue to US$ 34 million. DTC’s taxis and limousines completed more than forty-nine million trips during the year – 6% higher on the year. The bus segment registered an 11.0% increase to US$ 32 million, driven by new service contracts and an expanded fleet size. Its delivery bike segment posted a 2.3 times increase in its revenue.

Dubai Islamic Bank posted its 2024 financials, all showing significant increases – pre-tax profit up 27% to US$ 2.45 billion, net profit climbed 16% higher to US$ 2.23 billion, net operating revenues by 10% to US$ 3.50 billion, and total income, 16% to the good at US$ 6.36 billion. On the balance sheet side, the UAE’s largest Islamic bank registered a 10% hike in financing and sukuk investments to US$ 80.38 billion and customer deposits by 12% to US$ 67.85 billion, with current and savings accounts deposits 1.3% higher, contributing over 38% of the total. There was a 71.0% marked reduction in impairment charges to US$ 111 million, which saw a 1.4% reduction in non-performing finance to 4.0%. Driven by ongoing automation and digitalisation efforts, the bank posted an improvement in operational efficiency, with the cost to income ratio down 0.4% to 26.7%; its Liquidity Coverage Ratio came in at 159%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 17 February, one hundred and eighty-two points, (3.4%), higher the previous fortnight, shed three points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,359 points by Friday 21 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 0.15, closing on US$ 3.88 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.80, US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.76 US$ 2.11 and US$ 0.38. On 21 February, trading was at three hundred and twelve million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-eight million dollars, compared to three hundred and one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and eighty-five million dollars on 14 February.

By Friday, 21 February 2025, Brent, US$ 0.07 higher (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.39 (0.5%) to close on US$ 74.39. Gold, US$ 17 (1.8%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 55 (1.9%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,939 on 21 February 2025.

Early Friday morning, gold had hit another record high, (for the tenth time this year), trading at US$ 2,955 per oz, driven by concerns of a possible global trade war, mainly because of Donald Trump’s tariff threats; his latest ‘targets’ relate to lumber, cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals which he will announce “over the next month or sooner”. Even though fundamentals point to gold being overvalued, it can only be a matter of time before it tops the magical US$ 3k figure.

Wynn Resorts CEO, Craig Billing, is confident in the potential of the UAE’s gaming market, predicting it could reach between US$ 3 billion and US$ 5 billion over time. He also indicated that he would not be concerned if the regulators were to grant another licence in a different emirate. He added that Wynn Al Marjan is “the most exciting development project in the industry,” and that “we don’t believe that every emirate will avail themselves of potential licence by any means…We’re opening in March 2027, so think about the fact that it takes a minimum of four years to design and build an integrated resort. You can imagine that we’re going to have a very, very healthy lead.” The casino’s financial projections take into account the opening of a second casino in the UAE, and that “would be good for the industry”. The topping off Al Marjan is scheduled “towards the end of this year.”

Last October, Wynn Resorts announced that the local regulator, the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority, had issued a Commercial Gaming Facility Operator licence to the entity developing the Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in Ras Al Khaimah. Last month, Wynn acquired Aspinalls in Mayfair London, which will give the operator a presence in the centre of the city, and a London base for some of its clients. Wynn Resorts earlier this month said that it completed financing for the development of the Wynn Al Marjan Island project after it obtained a US$ 2.4 billion syndicated loan from a range of banks. Its remaining outstanding equity contribution to this project is up to US$ 773 million, with about 50% payable this year and the balance in 2026. Its contribution to date has been $632 million, including US$ 99 million contributed in Q4.

With its reworking of operations and market coverage, it seems that it has been successful as HSBC posts a US$ 2.0 billion surge in its 2024 profit before tax to US$ 32.3 billion; profit after tax came in, US$ 400 million higher, at US$ 25.0 billion. The net interest margin for the year ended up at 1.56%, lower by ten bp. Its US$ 0.87 per share dividend incudes a special payout of US$ 0.21 per share. HSBC is also to finalise a US$ 2.0 billion share buyback in Q1. In the near term, the bank is targeting US$ 1.5 billion in savings through the ongoing re-organisation by the ‘de-duplication of roles’, through a more simplified organisational structure, and a reduction in staff expenses by around 8%. Although it made a US$ 4.8 billion gain from selling its business in Canada, this balance, plus a further US$ 1.0 billion, was wiped out by losses stemming from exiting its Argentinian operations. Furthermore, there was also US$ 5.2 billion losses attributed to the recycling of ‘foreign currency reserve losses and other reserves’.

Having already earmarked a US$ 570 million provision to cover the costs of its car finance mis-selling scandal, Lloyds Banking Group has now increased the required provision to US$ 1.52 billion, which has obviously impacted its 2024 profits. It posted a pre-tax profit of US$ 7.56 billion, down from US$ 9.50 billion a year earlier, as the UK economy faltered, and interest rates came down. Lloyds is not the only bank implicated in the scandal over its treatment over commission paid to car dealers, with millions of motorists potentially in line for compensation. They include the likes of Barclays, having set aside US$ 114 million and Santander with a US$ 375 million provision. The Supreme Court will decide in April on the question of whether people taking out car loans were properly informed over how commission was paid, possibly leading them to be charged more. Banks and other financial institutions now await and may be liable to pay compensation over some deals, particularly before rules were changed in 2021. One sure thing is that Lloyds will have to pay some penalty but is likely to be less than 10% of the US$ 27.73 billion it paid, over its role in the PPI mis-selling saga in 2019.

Japan saw its core consumer inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, move at its fastest pace – 3.2% – in nineteen months which will probably see the central bank continuing to raise rates, and maybe more aggressively; in December, the rate had been 3.0%. Because of the market becoming more bullish on interest rates moving higher, bond yields nudged north. The Bank of Japan consider another index, which strips out costs of both fresh food and fuel, as a better indicator of demand-driven inflation, and this rose 2.5% in January – the fastest year-on-year pace since March 2024, when the index rose 2.9%.

In a desperate move to tackle surging home prices and give young voters a chance to get onto the housing ladder, the Australia’s government will ban foreign investors from buying established houses for the next two years, starting on 01 April 2025. According to the Australian Taxation Office, overseas investors bought US$ 3.12 billion of residential real estate — including vacant land, new and established dwellings – in the fiscal year ending 30 June 2023; this accounted for about 33% of the total sales. The country’s housing is some of the most unaffordable in the world and with a general election due by 17 May at the latest, in what promises to be a close fight, between the two protagonists – Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton – the country’s thirty-first PM needs to be seen helping the disenfranchised millennials and other house-buyers. Over the past decade, Sydney housing values have jumped almost 70% with the median dwelling price now around US$ 762k – and still climbing.

The US President is definitely not a shrinking violet and, this week alone, he has managed to upset the Ukrainian president, European leaders and Boeing. The latter has had a turbulent few years, most of which seemed to be self-inflicted. In his first term in office, he approved two updated versions of Air Force One, (which is now thirty-five years old), based on the modern Boeing 747-8; delivery was scheduled for 2024 but now has been put back to 2028. He has complained about it taking the plane maker too long to build planes and has threatened that “we may buy a plane or get a plane, or something,” and “I’m not happy with Boeing”. However, he will not consider buying an Airbus alternative but “I could buy one that was used and convert it.” A few days ago, Trump visited a thirteen-year-old Boeing 747-800 that had been owned by the Qatari royal family while it was parked at Palm Beach International Airport.

The Bank of England is facing a conundrum as inflation figures remain stubbornly high, (with the Consumer Price Index posting a 0.5% hike, in January, to 3.0%), as it needs to balance whether to bring it down to its 2.0% long-term target, by keeping higher interest rates, or risk dampening the economy too far by lowering interest rates too quickly. The main drivers behind the January increase were food/drink prices rising 3.3% on the year, (compared to 2.0% in the year to December), a smaller than expected decline in plane ticket costs and private school fees, 13.0% higher, as new VAT rules were introduced; it was the highest annual rate since last March. However, the money is on there being no rate cut at next month’s BoE meeting, with more inflation rises expected, throughout 2025, with the possibility of reaching 4.0% by year end.

More misery for the suffering UK populace is news that, as from this April, most English councils are set to increase council tax by the maximum amount of at least 4.99%. Councils are facing rising costs, and even more if they legally have to provide services such as social care, education, housing and waste services. Latest statistics indicate that 85% of the one hundred and thirty-nine top-tier authorities that have proposed or confirmed rises so far are planning to do so by 4.99%. Even though any local authority who wants to lift this tax to 5.0% or above must carry out a local referendum, under normal circumstances, but because being in severe financial trouble, six councils have been given authority to increase council tax beyond this level without a vote. Only fifteen councils are planning increases below 4.99%, including Wandsworth, (4.98%) and Kensington & Chelsea (4.0%), down to Lincolnshire (2.99%) and Wandsworth (2.0%).

In January, official figures indicate that government borrowing was more expensive than expected, and tax revenue fell below expectations. The end result is that the Chancellor is coming under increased pressure to raise taxes or cut public spending. In the month, the Office for National Statistics posted that the month saw the greatest budget surplus since records began in 1993, as the public sector took in more taxes and other income than it spent, leading to a surplus of US$ 19.46 billion. However, borrowing was US$ 14.65 billion more than a year earlier and the fourth highest on record. For the year, borrowing came in at US$ 146.55 billion, well ahead of the OBR’s forecast of US$ 133.16 billion. Normally, January is a big earner for the taxman, as self-assessed returns come in, but the tax revenue and the surplus were below economists’ forecasts; in the month, UK long-term borrowing costs soared, as the pound dipped lower, whilst ten and thirty-year borrowing costs soared. Consequently, government borrowing costs surged in the month, resulting in decades=high interest rates for government bonds, with the Chancellor may having to break her self-imposed fiscal rules – to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030. Undoubtedly if both inflation levels and interest rates move higher, then Rachel Reeves is in deep political trouble and the inevitable tax rises and spending cuts, maybe as early as the 26 March budget.

The new year started with a surprise for the embattled UK retail sector, with figures from the Office for National Statistics indicating that monthly retail sales were up by 1.7% – well above the 0.3% the market had expected – and a major improvement on the 0.6% fall posted in December. The main driver was from food shop sales rising 5.6% – the greatest amount since March 2020, when the lockdowns began. Allied with other recent data there has been increased consumer sentiment, as the figures show a strengthening economy. Another major feature has been the combination of wage rises and interest rate which have boosted consumer confidence.

Monday saw the possible return of Jack Ma, who was seen at a business leaders’ meeting with Chinese president, Xi Jinping; he had suddenly departed from public life, after he had criticised China’s financial sector in 2020. On the news, tech stocks climbed higher, including Alibaba, which ended the day 8% higher, with its value having risen by some 60% YTD. His appearance was seen as a sign that he may have been rehabilitated, as he was sitting in the front row and even shook hands with the Chinese supremo. To some analysts, the return of the poster boy for China’s tech industry could prove to bring a much-needed boost to the country’s economy. Four years ago, and after he had built one of China’s largest tech conglomerates, and had become one of the country’s richest men, he commented that China’s state-owned banks had a “pawn-shop mentality” and lamented the “lack of innovation” in the country’s banks. His misguided comments led to the cancellation of his US$ 34.5 billion stock market flotation of Ant Group, his financial technology giant, which many thought to be a government attempt to put him in his place because he had become too popular, too powerful and too outspoken.

At the meeting, Xi Jinping told those present that their companies needed to innovate, grow and remain confident, despite China’s economic challenges, which he described as “temporary” and “localised”. He also added that it was the “right time for private enterprises and private entrepreneurs to fully display their talents” – a sure sign of a change in direction from the government, with private tech firms back in the fold which were badly needed to boost the economy. This was after such companies had been taken to task and were forced to face much tighter enforcement of data security and competition rules, as well as state control over important digital assets; at the time, billions of dollars were wiped off many tech companies. Subsequently China suffered from a much weaker domestic economy, not helped by a property sector downturn, slow consumer spending and a marked rise in youth unemployment. On top of that, the country was slow in recovering post pandemic and then was hit by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. It could also be seen as a sign that the country’s leadership is changing tack and, to avoid any further stagnation, may be prepared to loosen its grip on the private sector. The attendee list showcased the importance of internet/tech/AI/EV sectors, given their representation of innovation and achievement. Another player in this game was the arrival of DeepSeek’s disruptive R1 artificial intelligence and its global impact; its success against its much more expensive US peers, has had a double whammy of knocking major US tech stocks, with its success leading to increased inward investment, and a surge in national pride which has continued into the financial markets.

With the Chinese president increasingly emphasising policies that the government has referred to as “high-quality development” and “new productive forces” there will be a move away from the former drivers of growth, such as property and infrastructure investment, towards high-end industries such as semiconductors, clean energy and AI. It appears that the government is trying to combine a controlled engagement, with the private sectors, especially tech, and higher living standards for everyone, driven by an economy driven by advanced manufacturing and less reliant on imports of foreign technology. The move could see an end to unregulated growth and a move toward Mr Xi’s national priorities. So it will be a welcome return for the former schoolteacher, Mr Ma, and once again it will be time for him to Hit The Road Jack!

Posted in Categorized | Tagged aman, Australian Property, burj-azizi, business, cepa, corinthia, dubizzle, economy, Finance, gulfood-2025, HSBC, Jack Ma, lloyds, news, parkin, the-wilds, UAE, wynn-al-marjan | Leave a comment

Don’t Worry, Be Happy!

Posted on February 15, 2025 by howesdubai

Don’t Worry, Be Happy! 14 February 2025

The new year saw Dubai real estate sector continuing to bubble, following a highly successful 2024, as it posted a record 180.9k transactions, valued at US$ 142.1 billion. January witnessed impressive annual increases, for both transactions and values – 23% to 14.24k and 24% to US$ 12.09 billion. January statistics from Property Finder found that 15%, 31% and 37% of people were seeking to own or invest in studios, 1 B/R and 2 B/R apartments; in the villa sector, 37% and 50% were searching for villas with 3 B/R and 4 B/R or more. The most popular areas for apartments were Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay and Palm Jumeirah, whilst for villas/townhouses, Dubai Hills Estate, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Land, Al Furjan and Damac Hills 2 were the leading five locations.

In the month, the off-plan sector accounted for 52% of total transactions – 15.0% higher compared to January 2024 – but 1.3% lower on the year, with a value of US$ 4.14 billion. Meanwhile, the existing market moved much higher, registering an annual 33.4% surge to 6.92k, and jumping 41.0% higher in value. Palm Jebel Ali continued to be the leader, with ninety-five transactions, worth US$ 463 million, with Al Yelayiss 1 a surprise second, with sales of US$ 463 million – from just US$ 28 million in January 2024.

When analysing rental trends, it was estimated that when looking at apartments 59% preferred furnished, with 39% going for unfurnished; 21% were looking for studios, 33% of tenants were searching for 1 B/R units and 33% for 2 B/R. For villas/townhouses, it was 52:42, furnished: unfurnished, with 42% of tenants looking for 3 B/R and 35% for 4 B/R+. The top areas to rent apartments in Dubai included Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay and Deira, and renting villas/townhouses, Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, Damac Hills 2, Al Barsha and Al Furjan were the five most popular locations.

Although the month saw a 4% dip in sq ft prices, to US$ 422, Dubai property values have soared by 81.2%, post Covid. January commercial property sales rose 17.9% on the year, with three hundred and sixty-three deals, valued at US$ 327 million. Land sales soared 151.2% higher, with eight hundred and eleven transactions, worth US$ 2.3 billion.

With a twenty million sq ft area available to it, one of the biggest of Asian developers, Karachi-based Bahria Town, has launched its first project in Dubai. The developer has plans to recreate a version of the fabled Blue Mosque in Istanbul, as well having, as its centrepiece, the Eiffel Tower, in Dubai South. The first off plan releases at Bahria Town should happen in Q1, with Phase 1 likely to take four years to complete. Early releases will have prime views of the two landmarks.

Dubai South is the emirate’s largest master development, encompassing an area of one hundred and forty-five sq km, focusing on the aviation and logistics sectors, with mixed-use and residential communities. It is expected that its ecosystem could offer up to 500k job opportunities, with a triple transport infrastructure connecting air, land, and sea. With the new terminal taking shape, there will be a surge in population from its current base of 25k residents and will become home to over a million people, once the airport becomes fully operational. It is expected that by 2032, the US$ 35.0 billion passenger terminal at Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International – will fully absorb the current Dubai airport (DXB) which will be redeveloped for probably residential purposes. Dubai South will become an aerotropolis — an airport city.

Dubai’s Vantage Developments and Vittoria Group announced a strategic alliance with Venere Group, that, in April, will launch a new US$ 50 million residential tower in Jumeirah Village Circle, with the unveiling of Venere Group’s prototype Italian supercar. The one-hundred-and-forty-unit tower will have a range from apartments to penthouses, and all completely furnished with Venere Group’s Italian-made furniture; the residential tower has been designed by Milan-based architects Gandolfi e Mura.

Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, the UAE’s Minister of Economy, has forecast a 5% to 6% growth for the national economy this year, driven by strong performance in key sectors such as technology, renewable energy, trade, financial services and infrastructure. He noted that the split between oil and non-oil is 25:75 and that in the four post-Covid years to 2024, the country’s GDP had grown by an annual average of 4.8%, with non-oil GDP growth averaging 6.2%.

At this week’s World Governments Summit 2025, Elon Musk announced the Dubai Loop project, with Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, revealing further details of the Dubai Loop project. He commented that this is “set to revolutionise transportation,” and that a Memorandum of Understanding had been signed between Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority and Musk’s The Boring Company. The Crown Prince also added that under the MoU, “Dubai will explore the development of the seventeen-kilometre project,” and that there will be eleven stations for the tunnel which will have a capacity to transport over 20k passengers per hour”. He also concluded by saying that “Dubai’s spirit of innovation thrives on strong partnerships with global industry leaders. Under the leadership of @HHShkMohd, the city continues to redefine the future of transportation, both above and below ground, setting new benchmarks for sustainability, efficiency, and urban connectivity.”

Also at the World Government Summit, the RTA unveiled a new ‘Rail Bus’ vehicle, shaped like a capsule – 11.5 mt long and 2.65 mt wide – which will carry forty passengers per trip; it will travel at one hundred kph, with twin benefits being its cost-effectiveness and helping to smooth traffic flow.

This Sunday, 16 February, will see the Roads and Transport Authority holding its seventy-eighth public auction to offer three hundred exclusive two, three, four, and five-digit license plates for private and vintage vehicles, as well as motorcycles. The selection includes premium numbers across codes A, B, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, Z and the code (2) for motorcycles. Registration opened last Monday and closed today, 14 February, with bidders having to pay a US$ 1.36k security deposit, and a non-refundable US$ 33 subscription fee. Successful bidders will need to settle their payments within ten working days after the auction concludes.

The General Civil Aviation Authority posted that the country’s civil aviation sector achieved traffic growth of 10.3%, in 2024, to 147.8 million, with air cargo growing 17.8% to 4.36 million tons. These results reflect the fact that the country is a major global hub for air transport, trade, tourism, and investment. Last year, the UAE welcomed 41.6 million inbound passengers, while 41.7 million departed, and 64.4 million transited through its airports. There was a marked increase in manpower, being 9.6k registered pilots, 35.9k cabin crew members, 4.5k engineers, 0.46k air traffic controllers, and 0.42k dispatchers. The country is home to thirty-six registered air operators, nine hundred and twenty-nine registered aircraft, including light sports aircraft. Air traffic movements reached a record of 1.03 million flights last year.

2024 proved to be a record year for DP World’s ports and terminals, as they handled 88.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), 8.3% higher on the year. Its global logistics have the capacity to handle more than one hundred million TEUs in seventy-eight countries. Group Chairman, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, commented that, “during the last ten years we have invested more than US$ 11 billion in world-class ports and logistics infrastructure to make trade flow.”, and “we are confident that the container market will continue to grow and that we have the capacity to service it. Whatever the short-term challenges, we remain bullish on the outlook for world trade.” The global company saw impressive double digit returns from Posorja terminal in Ecuador, which posted a remarkable 87% uplift in volume, to nearly one million TEUs, with double-digit growth seen at San Antonio in Chile, Yarimca in Türkiye, Chennai in India, Callao in Peru, Antwerp in Belgium and London Gateway. DP World’s flagship Jebel Ali Port posted a 7% increase from 2023. New ports and terminals added nearly one million TEUs to the total volume, including the DP World-Evyap merger in Turkey, new operations at Dar Es Salaam Port in Tanzania and the Belawan New Container Terminal in Indonesia.

DP World’s latest US$ 80 million development in Egypt will not only enhance the country’s infrastructure but also position it as a key regional trade hub; it is scheduled for completion this June. Its Sokhna Logistics Park, a state-of-the-art logistics hub, spans 300k sq mt, and is located in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, some ten km from Sokhna Port; it offers direct access to Greater Cairo’s key markets and major industrial zones. The park will drive efficiency, reduce logistics costs, and strengthen connectivity between Egypt, the ME, Africa, and beyond. Featuring both bonded/non-bonded warehouses, as well as office space and open cargo and container yards, it will support a range of industries, such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, retail, automotive and textile.

The UAE tech-telco giant e& posted a 10.2% rise in 2024 revenue to US$ 16.13 billion, with strong growth across its telco and digital verticals; consolidated profit came in 4.3% higher to US$ 2.92 billion, driven by continuing growth from its UAE operations and its investments in overseas markets – its latest being a US$ 865 million deal to acquire a Serbian broadband and cable TV services provider.

Another record year for Emaar Properties, with revenues and property sales skyrocketing by 33.0% to US$ 9.67 billion and 72.0% to US$ 19.07 billion; 2024 net profit, (before tax), was up 25.0% to US$ 5.15 billion. On top of all this, Dubai’s leading developer registered a 55.0% surge in revenue backlog from property sales of US$ 29.97 billion. Over the year, it acquired 141 million sq ft of development land in a prime area in Dubai, with a total development value of US$ 26.16 billion. In December, it announced a new 100% increase in its dividend policy, with its highest-ever proposed dividend of 100% of share capital for 2024, amounting to US$ 2.40 billion. It launched sixty-two new projects across all master plans in the UAE, with its property development business achieving property sales of US$ 17.8 billion – an annual 75.0% growth.

Last year Emaar Development posted a 61.0% hike in revenue to US$ 5.20 billion, with net profit before tax 20.0% higher at US$ 2.78 billion. The consolidated revenue of Emaar Properties from its property development business in the UAE, during 2024, reached US$ 6.40 billion, including Dubai Creek Harbour. Its shopping malls, retail, and leasing businesses generated US$ 1.53 billion in revenue, with an EBITDA of US$ 1.28 billion. Once again, Dubai Mall was the most visited destination worldwide, with one hundred and eleven million visitors. It also plans to add a further two hundred and forty luxury stores and dining outlets, for Dubai Mall, in a US$ 409 million investment. Emaar’s international sales, which contributed 8.0% of the Group’s revenue, topped US$ 1.12 billion, up 40.0% on the year, driven by strong performance in Egypt and India. Meanwhile, its hospitality, leisure, and entertainment division posted US1.00 billion in revenue, with Emaar’s UAE hotels averaging 79% occupancy while adding four new properties with five hundred rooms.

Although 2024 revenue nudged 1.7% higher to US$ 322 million, Al Ansari Financial Services posted an 18.1% decline in net profit, to US$ 111 million; as the remittance business market becomes even more competitive; it registered an EBITDA margin of 44.4%. Although remittance volumes continue to grow, with expat residents making gains from a dollar surge, so do the number of competitive platforms that offer opportunities to send money. Rashed Al Ansari, Group CEO of Al Financial Services, noted that “we remain confident in our ability to navigate challenges, capitalise on emerging trends, and drive long-term value for all our stakeholders”. He is also concerned about “the disruptive practices of certain fintechs that undermine fair competition and create an uneven playing field for all industry participants” and has taken this complaint up with the regulators.

Another good year for Salik, with both revenue and net profit showing 6.1% annual increases to US$ 697 million and US$ 316 million; the profit figure includes the extra 9.0% corporate tax, offset by the triple whammy of the introduction of two new gates, introduced in November, more cars on the road, (revenue generating trips 8.0% higher to 498.1 million), and a 2.5% cut to 22.5%, in the concession fee being paid to the parent entity RTA which became effective on 01 April 2024. Salik operates toll locations in the city and this year introduced variable rates for users passing through depending on the time of the day.

The Dubai-listed parking services operator Parkin recorded a 7.5% hike in profits to US$ 115 million, as revenue jumped 18.6% to US$ 252 million in 2024. There is confidence that there will be even higher growth levels in 2025, when the utility initiates new premium tariffs in Q2, which will see variable rates for peak hours of 8am-10am and from 4pm to 8pm.

Dubai Electricity and Water Authority registered a record revenue of US$ 8.44 billion in 2024, with EBITDA, 6.2% higher at US$ 4.28 billion, and net profit after tax of US$ 1.97 billion. Q4 figures included revenue, EBITDA and net profit after tax of US$ 2.03 billion, US$ 1.08 billion and US$ 480 million. As per DEWA’s dividend policy, the utility expects to pay a minimum annual dividend of US$ 1.69 billion, in the first five years starting October 2022, with it being paid semi-annually in April and October. By year end, 17.8% of installed generation capacity was clean, with 6.62 TWh of clean power generated during the year – 7.47% higher compared to 2023 – as the clean power accounted for 11.2% of the total power generated in 2024. There was an annual 3.4% increase in its annual peak demand, compared to 2023, reaching 10.76 GW. During the year, customer accounts rose by 4.8% to 1.270 million

With 2024 revenues and profit coming in at US$ 3.98 billion, (up to 7% higher than expectations), and at US$ 681 million, (49.1% higher on the year), du will be paying out its highest ever dividend of US$ 0.147 a share, 58.8% higher compared to a year earlier. The combined fixed-line and mobile subscribers, (rising 600k to 8.9 million) now come close to ten million. There were increases recorded for both postpaid subscribers, up 10% to 1.8 million, and prepaid users, 2.9% higher at 7.1 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 10 February, fifty-nine points, (1.1%), higher the previous week, gained one hundred and twenty-three points (2.3%), to close the trading week on 5,362 points by Friday 14 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.01, closing on US$ 3.73 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.78, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.80, US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.38. On 14 February, trading was at three hundred and one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and eighty-five million dollars, compared to one hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and one million dollars on 07 February.

By Friday, 14 February 2025, Brent, US$ 4.06 lower (5.0%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.07 to close on US$ 74.78. Gold, US$ 247 (9.4%) higher the previous four weeks, shed US$ 17 (1.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,884 on 14 February 2025. 2,884 74.78

Speaking at the World Governments Summit, Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary-General of OPEC, estimated that the required investment, to meet the expected growth in demand over the next twenty-five years, equates to US$ 17.4 trillion, or in the region of an annual US$ 640 billion. He noted that the biggest line items, exploration and production sectors, will absorb the largest share of investments, with investments of US$ 14.2 trillion, or around US$ 525 billion annually. Lesser capital expenditure items – in refining/manufacturing and transportation/storage – are expected to see spends of US$ 1.9 trillion and US$ 1.3 trillion. According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024, global oil demand is expected to exceed 120.1 mbd by the end 2050, an increase of 18.0 mbd from 2023’s 102.1 mbd. The split will see developing countries requiring an extra 28.0 mbd, (driven by population growth, urbanisation, and economic expansion), with demand falling 10.0 mbd in developed countries.

On the back of similar moves from rivals including Shell and Equinor, allied with a sharp 35.5% slump in 2024 profit levels, to US$ 8.9 billion, BP posted that it will “fundamentally reset” its strategy by scaling back renewable projects and increasing oil and gas production; it is expected that next week, it will scrap its 2020 target of achieving 50GW of renewables generation capacity by 2030 and half its previous US$ 10.0 billion in renewables until 2030. Even before this latest news, the energy giant had been scaling back by putting the majority of its offshore wind assets into a JV, with Japan’s Jera, to separate them from the company’s core fossil fuel business; last July, it also froze new wind projects. Human rights campaign group Global Witness noted that BP invested US$ 11.3 billion of its total annual balance of US$ 12.9 billion, in oil/gas, and the balance of US$ 1.6 billion on renewables and low carbon energy – a ratio of 87.4:12.6.

In a major cost-cutting exercise, and in a bid to simplify its structure and enable it to act faster, Chevron plans to slash its 45k workforce by as much as 20%, by the end of next year. Last month, the petro-giant indicated that it was looking to sell some of its assets and expand the use of robots in its operations, with resultant savings of up to US$ 3.0 billion. Even though it expects overall production to be 6.0% higher, over the next two years, it has slashed capex. Mark Nelson, vice chairman of Chevron Corp, said the company believed changes to the organisational structure would “improve standardisation, centralisation, efficiency and results”.

Troubled Boeing has posted that it will issue sixty-day notices of involuntary layoffs to about four hundred staff working on its Space Launch System moon rocket program, in line with revisions to NASA’s Artemis program and cost expectations. This program, which will have expensed US$ 93 billion by the end of the year, and set up during Donald Trump’s first presidential administration, represents the flagship American effort to return astronauts to the moon for the first time since the 1972 termination of NASA’s Apollo 17 mission. The latest program has had its share of setbacks, with Artemis 2 being delayed for almost a year, now planned for this September and the first planned manned moon landing delayed for some nine months to September 2026.

The original plan was to see a merger between Honda and Nissan, along with junior partner, Mitsubishi, to take up the fight with global competitors, including those from China; the Japanese trinity would have resulted in an industry powerhouse, valued at US$ 60.0 billion, and the world’s fourth-largest by vehicle sales after Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai. However, the plan has not materialised but the three companies did agree to continue their partnership on EVs. Honda was the number one in the vehicle triumvirate, followed by Nissan, still reeling from slowing sales and turmoil involving its top executives, including Carl Ghosn. The companies eventually disagreed on what role Nissan would play in the merger – equal partner or subsidiary.

Founded by Jeff Bezos in 2000, Blue Origin is planning to shelve 1.4k jobs, equating to some 10% of its current workforce; the rocket company, which has just completed the first test flight of its new Glenn rocket, has indicated that the job cuts are part of a plan to trim managerial ranks and focus resources on ramping up rocket launches. Once a leader in the field, it seems that it is now lagging behind some of its competitors, mainly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. On top of some management roles, the company will also be eliminating jobs in R&D and engineering. However, its new powerful New Glen does have some advantages over its main rival. One is its ability to carry large and heavy payloads including satellites into space, and the other is that it is more powerful than Space X’s Falcon 9.

January saw the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, the benchmark for world food commodity prices, dip 1.9 on the month in January, averaging 124.9 points; this was still 6.2 points higher on the year but 22.0 lower from its March 2022 peak. The index tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, with an analysis of the major indices below:

Sugar Price Index 6.8 lower on the month and 18.5 on the year

down to favourable weather and India resuming exports

Oil Price Index 5.6 lower on the month and up 24.9 on the year

down to lower world prices of palm and rapeseed oils, while those for soy and sunflower oils remained stable

Meat Price Index 1.4 lower on the month

down to lower international ovine, pig and poultry meat prices outweighing an increase in bovine meat quotations

Cereal Price Index 0.3 higher on the month but 6.9 down on the year

down to a slight drop in wheat export prices while maize prices increased, partly due to lower US production and stock forecasts

All Rice Price Index 4.7 lower on the month

down to ample exportable supplies

Dairy Price Index 2.4 higher on the month and 20.4 on the year

Down to a 7.6% monthly surge in international cheese quotations, which outweighed declines in butter and milk powder prices

The latest International Monterey Fund global growth forecast remains at 3.3% this year and in 2026, before dipping to just below 3.0% for the following five years to 2031. However, its Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, speaking at the ninth Arab Fiscal Forum, part of the World Governments Summit 2025 preliminary day in Dubai, said that growth in the Mena will bounce back to 3.6% this year, because of a recovery in oil production and a hopeful easing of regional tensions/conflicts. She was bullish on UAE’s GDP growth indicating that “digital innovation, with AI technologies, is expected to raise UAE’s GDP significantly by 2030, and that more R&D spending will further enhance productivity.” On a global scale, it seems that inflation is decreasing to acceptable government target levels but in some countries, it seems to be nudging higher; that being the case, there could be a divergence in interest rates across countries and higher borrowing costs for emerging market and developing economies. She was also concerned about the level of global public debt, which the IMF expects to top 100% of global GDP by 2030. There is also the danger that some countries will be snared within a low-growth, high-debt scenario and that will have an impact on growth rates between emerging economies and middle-income countries, with some facing significant slowdowns, due to not only financial but also geopolitical pressures.

There is no doubt that Australia is in the middle of a severe housing crisis and one of the main reasons is affordability – in the 1990s, it took six years to afford a deposit for a mid-price house on an average income. Years ago, it was a given that a middle-class job could almost guarantee a life in middle suburbia. After years of trying to solve the affordability conundrum, the answer may be found across the Tasman. Fifteen years ago, Auckland was beset by a similar problem – housing was as unaffordable as is the current Sydney. However, a major planning turnabout saw the pace of building more than double, with a boom in townhouses and clamping spiralling rents and house prices. It does seem that something similar could well benefit Australia.

However, the roots of the Australian problem go back to the 1980s. In the last two decades of the last century, the country’s standards of living grew enormously, side by side with surging demand for housing. Entering the housing market was made easier by government initiatives, including generous allowances for new buyers, tax relief and low interest rates. Almost simultaneously, house prices began to grow faster than incomes, so much so that from 2001 to today, house prices quadrupled while wages only doubled. What happened is that homeowners have become wealthy, and it is estimated that a sixty-year old home owner, on average, was twice as wealthy on their fiftieth birthday as on their fortieth and are wealthier again today. Home ownership rates have fallen sharply, and the portion of income spent on housing has increased. The current scenario for young Australians is that they have to start off with a large deposit, to help with a longer mortgage period, high repayments relative to income, and having to live in an increasingly more expensive rentals, whilst trying to pull in the deposit money. If all goes to plan, the move will be into a much smaller abode, further away from what would be preferred. In simple words, the problem could be solved – increase the supply; if that had happened, prices would have more than likely kept in tandem with pay rates. The slump, having started in the early 2000s, recovered a little in the 2010s but is now at historic lows.

Many consider that there is not enough land available to build more homes, especially medium-density housing in places where most people want to live, within reasonable distance from inner-city suburbs. Australia is definitely not the only country in the world where the planning system is notoriously complicated, time consuming, corrupt (in certain cases), and bureaucratic, beset by reams of rules and regulations. This is best summed up by Susan Lloyd Hurwitz, chair of the government’s housing supply and affordability council, commenting “our planning approval systems are too complex and too slow. Arrangements vary across states and territories and across the more than five hundred local governments that provide planning consent authority.”

With Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, standing beside him at the White House, the US President confirmed that Nippon Steel will drop its US$ 14.9 billion bid to acquire US Steel, and that it would instead “invest heavily” in the company, without taking a majority stake. In his last days as President, Joe Biden had blocked the proposed takeover on national security grounds and that domestic ownership was important, with the Japanese calling his decision “incomprehensible”. Trump – who mistakenly referred to the firm as “Nissan” – said he would meet Nippon’s head next week to “mediate and arbitrate” the deal. In the US, Japanese companies are the largest job creators in ten states and the second largest in another six – and the country.

The French Ministry of Economy has amended its earlier 2026 projected public debt, at 4.6%, now expecting a marginal increase to see it remain just under its 5.0% threshold. Last October, a financial plan, indicating its commitment to reduce the public debt to under 2.8% was submitted to the EC. Late last week, the French Parliament approved the 2025 state budget in a final vote in the Senate; it included austerity measures, worth US$ 52 billion, in a bid to reduce the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025, down from the 6.0% deficit expected for 2024. The Ministry of Economy stressed that achieving this target is “essential”, noting that budget implementation will be closely monitored to ensure compliance with ministerial allocations and to take any necessary corrective measures. Additionally, the French government has revised this year’s economic growth forecast down 0.2%, to 0.9%.

Last year, Spain received a record ninety-four million visitors and is fast catching up with France’s latest one hundred million total, which makes it the world’s biggest foreign tourist hub. Spain’s surprising recent tourism spurt has also helped the national economy, (the eurozone’s fourth biggest), post the highest growth in 2024, at 3.2%, compared to Germany, France and Italy with a 0.2% contraction, 1.1% and 0.5% growth. UK’s figure was 0.9%. No wonder that ‘The Economist’ has ranked Spain as the world’s best performing economy, with the country responsible for 40% of eurozone growth last year. It is truly amazing to see Spain bounce back from the pandemic when its GDP shrank by 11% in one year. It is estimated that public spending has accounted for about 50% of Spain’s recent growth and that the modernisation process is being aided by post-pandemic recovery funds from the EU’s Next Generation programme. Spain is due to receive up to US$ 169.0 billion by 2026, making it the biggest recipient of these funds, alongside Italy. Spain is investing the money in the national rail system, low-emissions zones in towns and cities, as well as in the electric vehicle industry and subsidies for small businesses. The rise in tourism has been a major boost but other factors – including financial services, technology, and investment – have played their part.

The Spanish flea in the ointment is that the country continues to have the highest jobless rate in the EU, being almost double the bloc’s average. However, the pendulum may have begun to swing, with Q4 showing the rate fall to 10.6% – its lowest level since 2008 – whilst the number of people in employment, now stands at twenty-two million, a record high. A labour reform, encouraging job stability, is seen as a key reason for this. However, other obstacles are in the way with a possible triple whammy of Spain’s mega public debt, which is higher than the country’s annual economic output, a mushrooming housing crisis across the nation, (with millions struggling to find affordable accommodation), and the top-heavy reliance on tourism, allied with a growing backlash from disenchanted nationals.

Critics argue that the Trump administration’s decision, to slash billions of dollars from overheads in grants for biomedical research, will stifle scientific advancements. The National Institute of Health confirmed it would cut grants for “indirect costs” related to research – such as buildings, utilities and equipment – and that “as many funds as possible go towards direct scientific research costs rather than administrative overhead.” It is hoped that the agency’s estimate that the cuts – which came into effect last Monday – would save US$ 4.0 billion, with the agency posting that it would impose a 15% cap, (half of the current average rate of 30%), the rates grant pay for indirect research. As leader of Doge, (the Department of Government Efficiency), Elon Musk has claimed that some universities were spending above that 30%, commenting “can you believe that universities, with tens of billions in endowments, were siphoning off 60% of research award money for ‘overhead’? What a rip-off!”

In January, US posted lower growth in the month, despite the unemployment rate dipping 0.1% to 4.0%, indicating a solid, if more subdued, economy with employers adding 143k jobs last month. The news comes in the same month that Donald Trump returned to a major shake-up, including cuts to government spending and the federal workforce, mass migrant deportations and higher tariffs on many goods coming into the US. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, also said the bank’s concerns about the job market had subsided.

Mainly because of higher egg, (15% higher because of avian flu), and energy prices, along with car insurance, airfare, medicine and other basics, January US inflation, pushed up to 3.0% – its highest rate for six months, with the news coming a week after the US central bank maintained rates, pointing to economic uncertainty. Prices for clothing, by contrast, declined, while rents and other housing related costs increased 4.4% over the last year, marking the smallest twelve month increase since January 2022. The Fed has still not come to grips with putting inflation back into its box and now has to consider what impact other factors, such as a squeeze on labour supply growth, will have in it trying to hit their long-held 2.0% target.

President Donald Trump has said he will announce a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US, a move that will have the biggest impact in Canada, commenting that “any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25% tariff.” Canada and Mexico are two of the US’s biggest steel trading partners, and Canada is the biggest supplier of aluminium metal into the US. In another announcement later in the week, he indicated that there will be reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tax imports from the US, commenting “if they charge us, we charge them.” During his first term, (2016 – 2020), Trump put tariffs of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminium imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU.; within a year, an agreement with his two nearest neighbours saw tariffs ended, although the EU import taxes remained in place until 2021. China has also imposed export controls on twenty-five rare metals, some of which are key components for many electrical products and military equipment. This move by China is because of the US preventing Chinese access to semiconductor chips and many other AI developments.

There has been a lot of interest in potential buyers for The Original Factory Shop, including Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group and Poundstretcher, which is owned by the investment group Fortress. The latest is that Modella Capital, the owner of Hobbycraft, is the inside runner to buy TOFS, after discussions with Baaj Capital broke down; Modella has also been in the mix to acquire WH Smith’s high street stores. The private equity firm, Duke Street, has owned the independent discount retail chain, with some one hundred and eighty stores in the UK, since 2007. Established in 1969, TOFS sells beauty brands such as L’Oréal, the sportswear brand Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker.

In true British style, Trade minister Douglas Alexander said the UK would not have “a knee-jerk reaction” but “a cool and clear-headed” response to Donald Trump’s latest renewal of steel and aluminium tariffs, at 25%, set to start on 12 March. The US is the world’s largest importer of steel, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico, as its top three suppliers, and Trump sees imposing tariffs, which will be paid by companies bringing the metal into the US, as a way of shifting away from foreign imports and boosting domestic steel production. The US is the third largest customer for UK steel, with exports totalling US$ 483 million, behind Ireland (US$ 610 million) and The Netherlands (US$ 576 million), but ahead of Sweden (US$ 476 million) and Belgium (US$ 456 million). With the US accounting for about 10% of UK’s steel market, probably the main concern would be the possibility of other steel-making countries, which refuse to trade with the US, may start dumping their excess steel in the UK. In a MAGA bid, it seems that the US president is keen to ‘level the trade playing field’ and aiming at countries and trading blocs, such as the EU, which export more to the US than they import.

Research consultancy, Indeed, has listed the ten most in-demand jobs in the UK, with the highest being for paediatricians, as vacancies increased 91% and offering a salary of around US$ 131k. Last year, listings for teachers surged 245%, with positions offering US$ 48.6k. Meanwhile, property solicitor roles have jumped by 111%, coming with an average salary of US$ 65.4k. Doctors were the seventh most in-demand profession, with job postings rising by 95%, followed by AI engineers also increasing by 86%.

Despite the UK economy being in almost negative territory, website Hitched indicates that last year, the average cost of a wedding rose 11.0% to US$ 29k, with more than 67% of couples saying their families helped pay for their weddings; only 10.0% took out loans or got new credit cards to cover costs. The knock-on effect of inflation pushed 61% of couples to increase their budgets at least once. Two of the major costs were the venue, at US$ 11k, and catering – US$ 8k.

Only a politician could answer the following question, when the Prime Minister was asked about Rachel Reeves’ CV. He replied that she has “dealt with any issues that arise”, and when asked in an interview whether he was “comfortable that she exaggerated her relevant experience”,

he replied the issues were from “many years ago” but that he and the chancellor “get up every day to… make sure that the economy in our country, which was badly damaged under the last government, is revived and we have growth, and that is felt in the pockets of working people across the country”. Rachel Reeves has frequently cited her time at the Bank of England as part of the reason that voters can trust her with the public finances and has repeatedly claimed to have spent up to 10 years there. The Chancellor left the financial institution nine months earlier than she stated in her LinkedIn profile. This means she spent five and a half years working at the bank – including nearly a year studying – despite publicly claiming to have spent a decade there. She joined HBOS in 2006 and initially claimed that she worked there as an economist but changed her profile to Retail Banking, with The Times reporting that er actual role was “running a customer relations department dealing with complaints and mortgage retention”.

In a cry for help, Chancellor Rachel Reeves met some of the leaders of UK’s high street banks, including Georges Elhedery, Debbie Crosbie, Charlie Nunn, Paul Thwaite, (of HSBC, Nationwide, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest) plus senior representatives of Barclays and Santander UK. The main item on the agenda was to discuss Labour’s financial services growth strategy – one of the pillars of the wider industrial strategy being drawn up by ministers. She will be asking for fresh ideas from them on how best to kick start the faltering economy. The Chancellor has had so much negative press from her October budget and has been trying to kickstart economic growth since then. More bad news came her way recently, with the BoE downgrading the country’s growth forecast and there are some who think it is inevitable that she will have to raise taxes sometime this year.

With a Q4 GDP growth of 0.1%, the UK economy will not go into a technical recession until mid-year, at the earliest; a technical recession occurs following two consecutive quarters of ‘negative growth’. It appears that the Q4 ‘improvement’ only arose because of growth in Christmas spending and manufacturing during December, and follows a contraction of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, last year the economy grew by 0.9%. There is no doubt that the dynamic duo of Starmer and Reeves has scored at least two own goals in their attempt to grow the economy. The first was after trash talking the economy ahead of its October budget and the second by hikes to employer National Insurance contributions from April 2025 that have impacted investment, forced job cuts, and hit pay rises. The fact is that the UK economy is in a rut and faces potential obstacles in the coming months, including the possibility of Trump tariffs, slowing growth forecast, the distinct possibility of rising inflation and the population facing water, energy and council tax rising sharply in April. Don’t Worry, Be Happy!

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Where Do You Go To My Lovely?

Posted on February 7, 2025 by howesdubai

Where Do You Go To My Lovely? 07 February 2025

In 2024, the Dubai luxury residential market saw one extra US$ 10 million + home sold, on the year, to a total of four hundred and thirty-five; 35.2% of this total, (equating to one hundred and fifty-three), was sold in Q4 – the highest quarterly figure on record. The number would have been greater but for the lack of inventory available in this sector – since mid 2023, supply has steadily deceased, but there is a lot now being built up but will not be hitting the market until 2027, at the earliest. Overall, villa prices last year rose by 19.1%, whilst those in the ultra-luxury sector were 20.2% higher – villas accounted for 68.5% of all luxury deals in 2024. Knight Frank estimates that ultra luxury prices will jump at least another 5% this year, in the emirate, after surging about 67% since 2021. Prices across the whole of Dubai’s booming property market are all moderating, after surging post-Covid, but will still be in double-digit territory. 52% of all luxury sales occurred in the off-plan market, with the top three developers — Omniyat, Nakheel and Emaar Properties — accounting for a combined 46% of these transactions. The leading location continued to be Palm Jumeirah, with one hundred and twenty sales – 29.0% the total – and valued at US$ 2.3 billion, equating to 32.5% of the total value. They were followed by Palm Jebel Ali, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, District One and Dubai Hills Estate.

Globally, prime residential prices continue to slow but no guesses which location is bucking the trend. Dubai’s market is the outlier. Even after surging price rises, Dubai is still one of the cheapest cities in the world, compared to the likes of New York and London where the price per sq ft is a third of the US city and a fifth of the latter. Even though supply is still well short of demand, and prime locations are becoming rarer, buyers are now pushing back on price hikes, after the years of increases.

Refine Development Management confirmed this week that it will launch an investment and development arm, with a project pipeline of US$ 12 billion. Recently, the Dubai-based company unveiled a 20k sq ft sales gallery in Business Bay. In H1, it plans to introduce high-end residential projects, valued at US$ 177 million, in Meydan, a US$ 2.18 billion mixed-use luxury development in Safa Park and branded residences, worth US$ 245 million, on SZR. In H2, SZR will be the location of its launch of a one hundred-storey twin-tower lifestyle development.

A study, undertaken by Arada, shows that the country’s residential wellness real estate market alone will grow, seven times, over the next three years from its current 2024 level of US$ 1.37 billion to a staggering US$ 8.40 billion by the end of 2027. It seems that all the major developers – including Emaar, Aldar, Damac, Danube Properties, Nakheel, Sobha, Meraas, Azizi and Samana Development – have been jumping on the wellness bandwagon and this segment of the market is not only in the domain of the ultra-wealthy but can also include middle-income families, looking for homes that offer a healthier lifestyle, without “breaking the bank”. Rosa Piro, Arada’s senior business development director, commented that the rise of wellness-focused residential projects, particularly in Dubai, is already evident, with supply expected to cross 16k units by 2030, adding that wellness real estate is set to be the next booming property asset class in the UAE.

This week witnessed a ground-breaking ceremony for a tower housing its own private island. Located in Jumeirah Village Circle, ‘I’sola Bella’ by MAK Developers, has been inspired by an Italian island of the same name. Sudais Moti, COO and Co-founder of MAK Developers, commented that “we’re creating a space where every day feels like a vacation, where residents wake up to an island retreat, without leaving home.” Among its forty-five world-class amenities – more than any tower in JVC has ever offered – are an infinity sky pool to a real sand beach, a private cigar lounge, a gaming room and a digital library, along with an exclusive island pool in the heart of the tower. It is reported that ‘I’sola Bella’ is already nearly sold out.

Plots in Satwa – a busy residential and commercial district in Dubai and adjoining Sheikh Zayed Road – are becoming available for freehold and no doubt it will prove a healthy investment for those interested. One of the older – and more well-known – suburbs in Dubai, Satwa is located adjacent to prime locations such as the Trade Centre Roundabout and would be ripe for a wider redevelopment. Rates would also be much lower than say Downtown or Dubai Marina.

With the UAE aiming for forty million hotel guests by 2030, it is obvious that more hotels are required, many of which will not be necessarily high-end. Little wonder then that Accor’s non-luxury brands will help fill the gap, with its range of non-luxury brands – Pullman, Ibis, and Novotel. The French hospitality giant, the world’s sixth-largest hospitality group, sees the UAE as its main regional revenue driver across the hospitality sector, with its other subsidiaries including Ibis, Mercure, Sofitel, and Fairmont Hotels and Resorts; it seems that it will be focussing its efforts in the ‘premium economy’, extended-stay residences, and other serviced apartment segments to fuel regional growth. Duncan O’Rourke, CEO of ME, Africa and Asia-Pacific, noted that “investor interest in the UAE remains strong – one of the noticeable trends is the rising demand for extended-stay residences, such as Pullman Living and other serviced apartments.” Accor has three hundred and sixty-five hotels (89.6k keys) in the MEA region, with fourteen new properties to open in 2025. In the UAE, its twenty-two brands have eighty-six hotels, with 24.5k rooms, with twelve more hotels (3.1k rooms) in the pipeline.

Emaar Properties has posted that Dubai Fountain will be closed, from this May, to undergo a comprehensive five-month renovation to offer improved choreography and an enhanced lighting and sound system. The fountain is one of Dubai’s most popular attractions, with visitor numbers in the millions, who come to see its synchronised water, music, and light performances. In true Emaar style, the developer posted that it will be “even more spectacular” upon its return, adding that the upgrades will create a “more immersive show”.

A new company has been formed, between MIG Holding and a Dubai World entity, and located in National Industries Park, which will become the largest precast concrete factory in the ME, spanning 2.2 million sq ft. ‘Safetech’, with an annual production capacity of more than 700k cu mt, will revolutionise the UAE’s construction industry, by providing advanced precast concrete solutions designed to elevate both the quality and efficiency of project delivery, particularly in light of the sector’s rapid expansion. It is estimated that the construction sector contributes nearly 12% to the country’s GDP and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.26% until 2030.

According to the 2024 Travel & Tourism Development Index, by the World Economic Forum, the UAE ranked first in the region and advanced seven places, on the year, to eighteenth globally, whilst being the only ME country in the top ten for international tourism revenue. Over the past few years, it has become an all-year-round destination, with winter emerging as the peak season. The country’s Tourism Strategy 2031 has the twin aims of attracting US$ 27.25 billion in tourism investments, whilst welcoming forty million hotel guests; the WEF report forecasts that, by 2033, the country will be welcoming 45.5 million international visitors. Last year, visitor numbers were 15.5% higher at 29.2 million.

Last year, the UAE’s foreign trade soared to an unprecedented US$ 817.4 billion, (AED 3.0 trillion). HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “the UAE’s foreign trade has reached a historic milestone, touching AED 3.0 trillion for the first time by the end of 2024. My brother, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, has spent years strengthening economic ties with nations worldwide… Today, we see the results. While global trade grew by just 2% in 2024, the UAE’s foreign trade expanded at seven times that rate, achieving an impressive 14.6% growth.” He also commented on the impact of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, with several countries, which have been added over the past two years, noting that “the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, led by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, added US$ 36.79 billion to the country’s non-oil trade with partner nations – 42% higher on the year. He added that, in 2021, the government set a goal of reaching AED 4 trillion, (AED 1.09 trillion) in annual foreign trade by 2031, and by the end of last year it had already achieved 75% of that figure, with the target expected to be reached well before the target date.

Last November, Sirocco, a JV between Heineken and Dubai Maritime Mercantile International, announced a plan to build the Gulf’s first major commercial brewery in Dubai, scheduled to open by the end of 2027. This week, there is a possibility that Diageo, which late last year moved its head office from Beirut to Dubai, could open a local alcohol production facility; among its many brands are Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Baileys and Smirnoff. Antoinette Drumm, MD of Diageo Mena, commented that “we are in the process of doing our five-year strategic plan, and as part of that, we are looking at all angles—whether it will be distilleries, breweries, etc. We are not saying ‘no’ because we are in the process of building our plan.” The company also produces non-alcoholic beverages, and she commented “We are doing (production) under licence agreement in other parts of Mena. I would say it is not if but when (to start local production).”

Last year, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise registered an 8.4% revenue hike to US$ 1.42 billion, as profit grew 36.2% to US$ 477 million, with operating profit, before exceptional items, reaching US$ 711 million, 19.4% higher on the year. The aircraft leasing company, which serves one hundred and twenty airlines across sixty-five countries, having acquired eighty-three owned and managed aircraft and divested sixty-eight planes, saw its fleet grow to three hundred and twenty-nine owned, one hundred and ten managed and sixty-seven committed aircraft as at 31 December. Last month, the aircraft lessor announced it had signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Nordic Aviation Capital, with a fleet of two hundred and fifty-two owned and committed assets on lease to about sixty airline customers in approximately forty countries, as of September 2024.

Dubai-based developer Damac is going ahead with ‘The Delmore’, an ultra-luxury residential project in Miami, on a plot that was bought in 2022 for US$ 120 million. The twelve-storey oceanfront condominium, located at the Town of Surfside, will have four and five-bedroom units, with prices starting at US$ 15 million; all apartments will have their own private elevator entry foyers. Its location, adjacent to Indian Creek and minutes from Bal Harbour, completes the coveted ‘Billionaire’s Triangle’, one of Miami’s most revered destinations. The Damac project, encompassing two acres, will be the firm’s second residential project in the Miami area and ‘one of the firm’s select few in the US’. Handover is slated for 2029.

Insurancebrokers were previously allowed to collect premiums for general insurance (excluding life, marine, and health) before remitting them to the insurer but, as from 15 February, insurance customers in the UAE will have to make direct payments to insurers instead of going through brokers. This move will be a double whammy benefit for policyholders, as their payments will go directly to the insurer, reducing any risk of delays or mismanagement, and will also lead to immediate policy issuance and faster claims processing; claim payouts and premium refunds must be made directly from insurers to clients. Brokers will also benefit from not having to handle premium collections, receiving commission within ten days and being able to focus on advisory and client service, rather than administrative payment management. However, the new regulations prohibit brokers from offering discounts by reducing their commission, which previously created an uneven playing field and encouraged price-driven competition over value-driven service. No longer can brokers enter into financial arrangements with non-insurance entities and paying them commissions for referring business.

In 2024, Dubai South welcomed 11.4% new companies, (four hundred and fifteen), bringing the total number of operating companies to 4.04k, whilst retaining 94% of existing companies. There was also an annual 300% increase in office space leased, to 500k sq ft. Furthermore, The Pulse Beachfront phase 1, comprising two hundred units, was completed, (with another five hundred due this year). During the year, South Living was launched and the fact that it sold out indicates the strength of Dubai realty, with BT Properties, Asia’s largest private property developer, agreeing to develop a gated master community within Dubai South’s Golf District. GEMS Founders School also welcomed its first five hundred students. Other significant events witnessed in the Logistics District at Dubai South were the inauguration of a state-of-the-art FedEx air and ground regional hub, the opening of Boston Scientific’s regional distribution centre at Hellmann Calipar Healthcare Logistics’ facility, and the groundbreaking of a new facility by dnata.

Between 19 February and 09 March, the ICC Champions Trophy, involving eight of the best cricketing nations, will take place. Despite Pakistan being the official host, the tournament will follow a hybrid model, after India refused to travel to Pakistan due to security concerns. After extensive discussions, the Pakistan Cricket Board has only just agreed to hold all of India’s matches and one semifinal in Dubai. Now the emirate is fast preparing for a last-minute surge in flight and hotel bookings. The matches to be played at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium are:

20 Feb – Bangladesh v India
23 Feb – Pakistan v India
02 Mar – New Zealand v India
04 Mar – Semi-final 1*
09 Mar – Final – Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore**
All matches start at 13.00 Dubai time
*Semi-final 1 will involve India if they qualify
** If India qualify for the final it will be played at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium

With bookings gradually increasing, the real surge is expected in the final two weeks before the match, and if left too late travellers will undoubtedly find limited availability and soaring prices. with them surging by as much as 50% – and even more for last minute bookings. This sudden change of plan has been a godsend for the local travel and hospitality sectors, with all ranges of hotels, from budget to seven star, seeing increased business and rising occupancy levels, as well as heightened demand for short-term lets and Airbnb.

With the aim of enhancing the efficiency and speed of trade operations across Dubai’s supply chain and logistics sectors, Dubai Trade has amended its Digital Delivery Order (DDO) platform to Trade+. The platform eases the digital exchange of cargo release documents between shipping lines, freight forwarders, consignees and other trade stakeholders, resulting in a faster and more efficient cargo release process. It is estimated that this Trade+ service, on the Dubai Trade Single Window for Trade and Logistics, will result in an average 90% reduction in transaction times, process higher trade volumes and expedite cross-border trade. Last year Trade+, which is 100% paperless, saved an estimated 2.36 million documents from being printed.

A UAE court has ruled in favour of the Dubai investment firm Shuaa in a dispute brought against the company by a former top executive. Last August, the investment firm was advised by the Dubai Labour Court of First Instance that it had received a lawsuit filed by the former executive. In a statement, Shuaa noted that “we are pleased to inform our shareholders that the Court has issued a judgement in favour of the company. The company… reaffirms its commitment to assessing all available legal options to safeguard its rights and those of its shareholders.”

With the twin aims of helping taxpayers to reduce their tax burden and encourage them to fulfil their tax obligations, the Federal Tax Authority has called on registrants who have yet to update their tax records to take advantage of the UAE Cabinet’s decision to grant a grace period, relieving them from administrative penalties. The Cabinet decision allows registrants to update information held in their tax records during the period from 01 January 2024 to 31 March 2025, without incurring the administrative penalties for failure to inform the FTA of any instance that may require amendments or updates to their tax records. If such a penalty had been imposed in the past, it will be reversed. The initial Cabinet Decision No. 74 of 2023 indicated that the registrant shall notify the FTA, within twenty business days, of any change to its data kept with the FTA.

Under the Medcare brand, the Aster DM Healthcare Group’s latest US$ 16 million investment plans point to a further ten ‘Medcare Medical Centres’ in Dubai and Sharjah over the next two years; there are already five multi-speciality hospitals and twenty-five medical centres. This will result in a 21.4% increase in payroll numbers, to eight hundred and fifty, in the medical centres. The Medcare Group overall has a 2.8k strong workforce, which includes five hundred and thirty-one doctors and 2.3k other ancillary service professionals.

At the height of its troubles in 2022, Union Properties had legacy debts of US$ 400 million which had been cut by 60.9% by the end of December 2024 to US$ 157 million which is due to move lower by US$ 41 million, to US$ 116 million, by the end of Q1. The Dubai developer commented that it “was able to reduce the margin on the three-month EIBOR from 3.25% to 2.75%, in light of growing trust among banks.” Having restructured its debt, Union Properties was able to cut its financing costs by 72.0% to US$ 9 million last year, providing a positive boost, both for its liquidity and profitability.

In 2024, TECOM Group PJSC registered an 11% hike in annual revenue to US$ 654 million, resulting in a 14% rise in net profit to US$ 327 million; this improvement was driven by several factors such as its targeted portfolio expansion, increased operational efficiencies, its robust occupancy level of 94% and a 92% retention rates. The fair value of the Group’s investment properties’ portfolio, conducted by CBRE, ascertained a fair value of US$ 7.63 billion, at year end, representing an annual 11% increase in like-for-like and an increase of 22%, including new acquisitions during the year. The Board has proposed an H2 dividend payment of US$ 109 million (equating to US$ 0.022 per share), subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming AGM on 10 March, and in line with the dividend policy valid through H1. Malek Al Malek, Chairman of TECOM Group said that “the US$ 736 million, (AED 2.70 billion), of investments announced through 2024 will further expand the Group’s portfolio, enabling its continued sustainable growth and reinforcing its role as a strategic driver in Dubai’s business sector.”

Emirates Islamic posted an annual 2024 46.0% rise to a record profit before tax of US$ 845 million, with net profit 32.0% higher at US$ 763 million. Total income rose 13.0% to US$ 1.47 billion, as expenses dipped 7%, on the year, and impairment allowances were 28% lower, driven by improvement in credit quality. Increases were noted for total assets, customer financing and customer deposits – by 27% to US$ 302 million, by 31% to US$ 19.35 billion and 25% to US$ 20.98 billion. Non-performing financing ratio improved to 4.4%, with strong coverage ratio at 142%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 03 February forty-six points, (0.3%), lower the previous week, gained fifty-nine points (1.1%), to close the trading week on 5,239 points by Friday 07 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.19 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 3.72 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.70, US$ 5.68, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.40 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.78, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.37. On 07 February, trading was at one hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and one million dollars, compared to one hundred and ninety-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-three million dollars on 31 January.

By Friday, 07 February 2025, Brent, US$ 4.06 lower (5.0%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 2.12 (2.8%) to close on US$ 74.71. Gold, US$ 247 (9.4%) higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 69 (2.4%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,901 on 31 January 2025. Not long to go before it hits the US$ 3k mark!

Since the transition to lower carbon energy was moving slower than expected, Norwegian energy giant Equinor is halving investment in renewable energy, over the next two years, while increasing oil and gas production. Chief executive, Anders Opedal, also added that costs had increased, and customers were reluctant to commit to long term contracts, as well as warning that gas prices could rise next winter, as European gas storage levels were lower now than this time last year. Equinor will halve its investments in renewables to US$ 5 billion, as “we don’t see the necessary profitability in the future,” and it will also drop a target to spend half of its fixed assets budget on renewables, and low carbon products, by 2030. Another blow for environmentalists was the chief executive saying he was confident that Rosebank – a giant new oil field in the North Sea – would go ahead, (despite a Scottish court ruling that consent had been granted unlawfully), and will be increasing oil and gas production by 10% over the next two years.

The US multinational, Estée Lauder, is planning to cut its payroll by some 7k of its 62k workforce, with the need to save around US$ 1 billion, as it manages “the risk of recession… including the imposition of tariffs and sanctions”. The beauty firm – with brands such as Clinique, MAC, Jo Malone, Bobbi Brown, Aveda and Tom Ford – posted a Q4 loss of US$ 590 million, as customers spent less in China and Korea. It had already started a restructuring program to tackle its flagging performance, but circumstances may have worsened, with the threat of Trump sanctions hanging over many of their one hundred and fifty market countries. Having cited inflation being one of the main factors behind its rising costs, it announced that “we are significantly transforming our operating model to be leaner, faster, and more agile.”

Estée Lauder is one of many companies warning of the impact a tit-for-tat tariff war could have on their financials. For example, drinks giant, Diageo, which makes Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Baileys and Smirnoff, has warned that tariffs on Mexico and Canada – if they go ahead – “could very well” impact its business. Its chief executive, Debra Crew, commented that it was taking “a number of actions to mitigate the impact and disruption to our business that tariffs may cause”.

Founded in 2013, and in the past three years having seen three different owners, online fashion boutique Trouva, has called a halt to trading, while it explores its fourth sale. The company was acquired by Project J last year, (and is owned by that company alongside Fy!, a home and living marketplace), having previously been owned by Made.com, Next, and then a vehicle called Re:store. The company offers a platform for independent shops and boutiques that do not have an online presence to sell their products. Jonathan Thomson, co-founder of Project J, commented that “we have decided to focus our efforts on building the Fy! brand and explore the options for a sale of Trouva.”

For the first time in legal history, a Swiss court has charged an entire company and followed through with convicting the company Trafigura and its former COO of bribery, over payments made by the firm to gain access to Angola’s lucrative oil market. It sentenced its UK COO to thirty-two months in jail and fined the company US$ 148 million; both will appeal the decision. The court had heard that the company had set up a complex payment web, through which an official with Angola’s state oil company was paid almost US$ 5 million between 2009 and 2011. During that time, Angola signed contracts with Trafigura, worth almost US$ 144 million. However, the company was adamant that its own compliance and anti-corruption measures had been independently assessed and found to be excellent, but that was just a sham because there was an intricate structure set up to evade those measures in reality. There will be a few commodity brokers, based not only in Geneva, but worldwide, who will be a little concerned that it now seems Swiss prosecutors have raised the ante.

Volkswagen’s unit, Skoda Auto Volkswagen India, has sued authorities to quash an “impossibly enormous” tax demand of US$ 1.4 billion, arguing that it is contradictory to New Delhi’s import taxation rules for car parts, it will hamper the company’s business plans and that it puts at risk itsinvestments of US$ 1.5 billion in the country, and is detrimental to the foreign investment climate. Indian Customs and the Finance Ministry had become concerned that VW were breaking down imports of some VW, Skoda and Audi cars into many individual parts to pay a lower duty. Importing “almost the entire” car, in unassembled condition, will attract a tax of up to 35% on CKDs (completely knocked down units); classification of them as “individual parts”, coming in separate shipments, will be taxed between 5% – 15%. VW reckons that they have kept authorities aware of its “part-by-part import” model and received clarifications in its support in 2011. If the German carmaker were to lose the case, in a country, where it is a very small player, it could have to pay up to US$ 2.8 billion, which is higher than its total 2024 revenue of US$ 2.19 billion; its net profit came in at just US$ 11 million.

Another ‘victim’ of Indian procrastination is Skoda Auto Volkswagen India, facing a US$ 1.4 billion fine from the Indian tax authorities. This week, it seems that South Korean car maker Kia Motors is in the authority’s sights which has sent out a four hundred and thirty-two page confidential notice, accusing the company of evading millions of dollars in taxes. Kia has been importing the components for its Carnival car model in separate lots, rather than as a single shipment, a move that attracts significantly lower customs duties. If the claim is valid, it could be paying a fine of US$ 155 million. Its factory is in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and has sold more than a million cars in the country since its launch in 2019. The increase in similar tax cases, and the apparent lack of urgency in settling them, will surely have a negative impact on future foreign investment. Indeed, net foreign direct investment halved in 2024, and it seems that the government will have to address issues such as the tax dispute resolution process and remove a lot of red tape if it does wish not to lose further international investment funds.

Driven by stable progress in opening up to foreign investors, along with a more diversified investor base, China’s bond market rose 11.7%, to US$ 10.94 trillion, over the year; this was split between the interbank market, accounting for US$ 9.71 trillion, (88.88%) of the market, and the exchange market US$ 1.23 trillion – 11.12%. In 2024, the volume of treasury bonds amounted to US$ 1.71 trillion, with the volume of local government bonds reaching US$ 1.35 trillion. Indicators are that foreign institutional holdings are slowly making a mark, now accounting for up 2.4% of the country’s market holdings, at US$ 579 billion. The report showed that China’s bond market is becoming more stable and organised, with the balance of foreign institutional holdings in the market reaching US$ 579 billion.

Having previously indicated that it had been unable to find a new owner for Mosaic’s chains, Katies and Rivers, (and its other brands Rockmans, Crossroads, Autograph, W Lane and BeMe), would be wound down. KPMG posted that it will also close all of Millers and Noni B’s remaining two hundred and fifty-two stores, with the loss of 1.6k jobs, of which 0.65k had already been announced, with the closure of Rivers this month. Mosaic collapsed in 2024, with 0.25k people in head office and 2.5k workers across six hundred and fifty-one stores, in Australia and New Zealand, losing their jobs. Mosaic’s collapse, last October, left creditors being owed US$ 155 million, including US$ 17 million to factories in Bangladesh which has left thousands of jobs there in jeopardy.

Australia’s Fair Work Ombudsman has directed Hamilton Island Enterprises to pay back US$ 30 million in wages to 2.15k current and former salaried employees, who were not paid correctly between December 2014 and the end of 2022. HIE, the operator of Queensland’s luxury Hamilton Island resort, manages various businesses on the island, including accommodation, restaurants, the marina, airport, utilities and emergency services. The company has signed an enforceable undertaking agreement and, to date, has back-paid staff US$ 18 million. It is reported that certain entitlements, such as overtime rates, weekend and public holiday penalties, broken-shift allowances and annual leave loading had been underpaid by HIE. Although one person was repaid US$ 74k, the average “payback” was US$ 5k, with a further US$ 136k owed to thirty-two employees, who investigators are yet to reach, remains outstanding. The company has been ordered to:

implement a range of workplace changes, including an independent audit of salaried workers
- appoint a workplace laws compliance officer
  - have a dedicated hotline and email employees, who investigators are yet to reach, remains outstanding
    - make a contrition payment of US$ 467k

There is no doubt that unskilled workers, young employees and those on temporary visas, not only in North Queensland or Australia, but in many global holiday destinations, are particularly vulnerable to underpayment, making it difficult for workers to challenge unfair conditions. The Fair Work Ombudsman noted that the “problem is endemic”, with University of Sydney Associate Professor, John Mikler, noting that wage theft is a problem throughout Australia.

Citing security concerns, Australia has become the first G20 nation to ban DeepSeek from all government devices and systems; the arrival of the Chinese chatbot last month was an eye opener in that it matched the performance level of US rivals, while claiming it had a much lower training cost. The result spooked global markets, with billions being written off share values of tech stocks tied to AI. The Albanese government has insisted the ban is due to the “unacceptable risk” it poses to national security, and not because it originated from China. Although all government entities are required to “prevent the use or installation of DeepSeek products, applications and web services”, as well as remove any previously installed, on any government system or device, it is unclear whether this edict covers the likes of educational facilities, public libraries etc. The Australian approach is in contrast to that of President Donald Trump who described it as a “wake up call” for the US but said overall it could be a positive development, if it lowered AI costs.

It would be a surprise if the Reserve Bank of Australia were not to lower interest rates later this month, as core inflation has declined again, dipping 0.4%, to 3.2% in Q4, below its forecasts. Inflation is lower because price rises in key items in the ‘Australian Bureau Statistics basket’ have reduced. Examples include Q4 rental price increases having nudged 0.3% lower to 6.4%, healthcare by 0.8% to 4.0%, and insurance/financial services by 0.8% to 5.4%. Two conundrua, facing the RBA decision, are the unemployment rate which, at 4.0%, could be seen as too low, (on the basis that the more people employed, the greater the risk of increased demand in the economy, which can drive up prices), and the weak Aussie dollar, at 0.623 – both are factors that could possibly push a delay in further rate cuts this month.

At the start of the week, the Indian rupee continued its recent dismal run and slumped to a new low against the US dollar, at 87.18, after analysing the impact of Donaldonics and his tariffs. King Dollar will probably be dominant throughout the month – good news at least for Indian expats remitting money home. Whether the Reserve Bank of India is able to change tack and start supporting the rupee is debateable. However, today, 07 February, the RBI cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to 6.25%, for the first time in nearly five years, in an attempt to boost the sluggish economy.

On Monday, President Trump signed yet another executive order, this time to take the first step towards setting up a sovereign wealth fund for the United States, which many consider could be used to purchase TikTok. Being Trump, he did add that the fund would soon be “one of the biggest”, even though the US currently runs a budget deficit. During the run up to the election, he had indicated that the fund would be financed by “tariffs and other intelligent things”, and that the SWF would finance “great national endeavours”, including infrastructure projects such as airports, roads as well as medical research. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the fund would be set up within the next twelve months and that the plan was to monetise assets currently owned by the US government “for the American people”. After levying 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, starting last Saturday, on Tuesday the levies were paused for thirty days.

Last October, the UK finally ceded the Chagos Islands, but at the same time retained a ninety-nine-year lease over the UK-US military airbase on the largest island, Diego Garcia. However, following the elections a new prime minister, the colourful Navin Ramgoolam, was voted in and immediately indicated that new conditions had been negotiated meaning the UK’s lease payments would be linked to inflation and frontloaded. The end result would seem that the UK payments would double to US$ 22.57 billion – a claim that the Starmer government said was “inaccurate and misleading”.

The UK government has denied claims made by the prime minister of Mauritius that it faces paying billions more under a renegotiated deal over the future of the Chagos Islands. Whilst Ramgoolam railed against the former agreement, which he said was a “sell-out” for Mauritius, there are some in the UK who are opposed to the deal, describing it as “terrible”, “mad” and “impossible to understand”, and “at a time when there is no money, how can we spend billions of pounds to give something away?”

Two months ago, and blaming the government’s net zero targets, Vauxhall owner Stellantis signalled it would close its Luton van plant and shift manufacturing to Ellesmere Port. This week, yet another blow for the embattled Chancellor of the Exchequer, with AstraZeneca cancelling plans for a US$ 558 million vaccine manufacturing plant in Liverpool, citing a cut in funding from the government; the pharmaceutical giant is claiming that the investment, announced last year, in the Tories’ spring budget, was dependent on a “mutual agreement” with the Treasury and third parties – it has now been cancelled because Labour ministers have offered less funding than their predecessors. The money would have expanded an existing site in Speke which “will still continue to produce and supply our flu vaccine, for patients in the UK and around the world”. There is no doubt that this is another major blow to Rachel Reeves’s renewed attempts to deliver economic growth.

The EY ITEM Club is the latest influential group to slash its earlier predictions on the UK economy and another potential knockout punch for the Chancellor; it had previously expected 2025 UK GDP growth of 1.5% which has been cut by a third to 1.0%. There will be more bad news over the next two months as, come April, the temperature will heat even further when tax and wage rises will bump up business costs.

Seventeen years ago, NatWest was bailed out by the government, with a US$ 56.11 billion package, and at one time it was 80% owned by the UK government which still maintains its position as the bank’s biggest shareholder – at 8%; however, it is perhaps only a few months before it divests its investment. The bank posted a 26% rise in Q3 profit, and its latest share value indicates that the bank’s market cap has doubled over the year to US$ 43.16 billion. Even after the recent recovery in its valuation, taxpayers will see a loss running to billions of pounds from NatWest’s emergency bailout.

This time of the year is bonus time, with NatWest reportedly raising the “pot” by 26.4% to US$ 555 million. One of the main beneficiaries is expected to be the chief executive, Paul Thwaite; with a salary of US$ 1.5 million, he is in line for a bonus of up to 150% of his pay, as well as stock worth a maximum of 150% of his salary, with a performance share plan (PSP) which could pay him up to three times his basic pay each year. Not a bad return but still some way behind Lloyds Banking Group’s Charlie Nunn and Barclays’ CS Venkatakrishnan – who himself is expected to see his annual pay capped at just over US$ 17 million under a new policy.

Because of the government’s recent scrapping of the EU bonus cap, HSBC Holdings is planning a US$ 19 million remuneration package for its fairly new French CEO Georges Elhedery, ahead of its annual results later in the month. Europe’s biggest lender, with a market cap of US$ 182 billion, is understood to have been consulting leading shareholders on the plans, which will involve halving his fixed pay, offset by more generous maximum variable pay awards. When he was named as Noel Quinn’s successor, last July, his remuneration comprised a base salary of US$ 1.7 million, a US$ 2.1 million fixed pay allowance, a maximum annual bonus opportunity of roughly US$ 3.7 million and a maximum long-term share award of close to US$ 5.6 million; this came to a maximum total of US$ 13.1 million. There is no doubt that he has done well in his first six months as CEO.

Monday saw the global markets in some sort of disarray, as the prospect of a global trade war loomed, following Donald Trump going through with his threat of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Early Far East trading saw Japan’s Nikkei, Australia’s ASX and the Hkex down by 2.9%, 1.8% and 1.1%. There is no doubt that this president means business and will not pull back from also hitting the EU with tariffs; he has also warned the UK that it “is out of line” on trade with the US and told reporters, “we’ll see what happens”.

For the third time in six months, the Monetary Policy Committee, as widely expected, cut UK interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5% – their lowest level in eighteen months. As usual, any rate move comes with a double whammy – in this case, lower mortgage payments for many homeowners, but also lower returns for savers. The market expects two more rate reductions this year, which it considers will be enough to see the inflation rate eventually reaching the BoE’s 2.0% target. However the BoE was the harbinger of some bad news – by slashing its forecast for economic growth, adding that the UK economy will narrowly miss a formal recession only by the narrowest of margins in the coming months, and downgraded its estimate of the economy’s ability to generate income, and that there will be a further few years of weak economic growth; it actually cut its forecast for this year and the following two. The BoE also said that the economy’s potential growth rate had halved to 0.75%, down from 1.5% this time last year.

And in a further blow to the Chancellor, it said her latest growth plans, unveiled in a speech last week, will add nothing to GDP growth in its forecast horizon. It also mentioned that everyone, (with the possible exception of Chancellor Reeves), already knew that it expects the National Insurance rise to weigh down on activity, in particular by pulling down employment. On top of everything was their concern that Donald Trump’s tariff threats could well pose further problems for the state of the UK economy.

Vertu Motors, which has almost two hundred sites operating in the UK, posted an unexpected profits warning and announced that it was cutting jobs and closing on Sundays, in a bid to reduce costs, amid tough trading and looming budget tax hikes. The UK’s third largest car retailer cited that it had been impacted by steep discounting industry-wide in a bid to meet a government target for sales of new electric vehicles – the so-called ZEV mandate which demands a rising proportion of total sales come from zero-emission vehicles each year; this year it has risen to 28% from 22% in 2024. Stiff penalties are in place for missing this target, which was not achieved in 2024. It also pointed out that budget tax rises, due to take effect in April, will cost a further US$ 12 million.

This week saw the death of the billionaire philanthropist and spiritual leader, Aga Khan, who had been the imam of the Ismali Muslims since 1957. The Aga Khan’s charities ran hundreds of hospitals, educational and cultural projects, largely in the developing world. The prince was also the founder of the Aga Khan Foundation charity and gave his name to bodies including a university in Karachi, and the Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Aga Khan Trust for Culture was key to the restoration of the Humayun’s Tomb site in Delhi. There is an annual Aga Khan Award for Architecture, and he also founded the Nation Media Group, which has become the largest independent media organisation in east and central Africa. To many, he will be remembered for his involvement in horse racing, being a leading owner and breeder, best known for Shergar, which in the early eighties was the most famous and most valuable racehorse in the world. Two years after winning the Derby at Epsom in 1981, the horse was kidnapped in Ireland and never seen again. To others, it would be his being mentioned in a song, (‘Your name it is heard in high places, You know the Aga Khan, He sent you a racehorse for Christmas And you keep it just for fun’) – Where Do You Go To My Lovely?

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