It’s Time To Go Now!

Posted on February 28, 2025 by howesdubai

It’s  Time To Go Now!                                                                  28 February 2025

The jury is out whether the Dubai real estate market is slowing down, after four years of a post-pandemic rally, and whether prices and rentals have now peaked. Two things are certain. Last year’s record of 180.9k transactions, worth US$ 142.26 billion, will be surpassed, in 2025, but the 36% and 27% increases posted will be lower.  However, the number of units handed over this year will be 50% higher than the estimated 45k figure for 2024, whilst price/rental rises will be higher in 2025 but at a slower pace than in the previous years. The market cannot cope with say 30% annual rises – if that were the case, a property valued at 100 today will be worth 287.93 in five years’ time, equating to an annual 37.59% increase. People have to realise that that the sector is not immune from economic reasoning and the property cycle cannot see records broken every year. A slowdown is inevitable but the questions are when and whether it will be a measured exercise or a hard landing; the answers are sometime before 2027 and the latter will be dependent on global  economic circumstances – if there is a major global slowdown, on par with the 2008 GCC, then it could be a crash landing, if not it will be a period of stabilisation, with minimal movements in prices.

Palma Developments has launched a US$ 1.36 billion project in Jumeirah Islands – the Serenia District, encompassing a 600k sq ft area. It will have a 3.5 million sq ft built up area, comprising six integrated towers – the Serenia Signature Clubhouse, Health & Social zone, Sports & Recreation spaces, Family Oasis, Nature Discovery zone, and a Wellness Retreat.

According to Manrre Logistics Fund, warehouses and grade A logistics facilities will witness price rises of up to 10% in the UAE this year, attributable to the triple whammy of a shortage of Grade A units, low vacancy rates and strong demand from domestic/international players. New demand is from e-commerce, manufacturing and chemical firms. The consultancy noted that “all industrial areas have a shortage of Grade A logistics facilities. There is an average vacancy rate between 4.0% to 2.5% only. In the next twelve to eighteen months, there will be some ease due to new supply”.  It expects that because there is just a 3% vacancy rate for Grade A assets, with logistics, e-commerce and multinationals driving demand, rents had jumped by between 25% – 30% last year with a further 5% – 10% expected in 2025. Some analysts see a possible UAE shortfall of forty million sq ft. In contrast, there is a lot of vacancy in the low and old assets industrial areas, and since the demand at the premium end is so high, (with supply limited), some will be considering to speed up the process by purchasing old warehouses and upgrading them.

 Dubai and Abu Dhabi Industrial and Logistics 2024-2025, a Knight Frank report, indicated that demand for industrial and logistics real estate peaked in Q4, accounting for 34% of the year’s total. 27% of the market was taken by two sectors – manufacturing and logistics, (15% and 12%) – with a further four sectors, (services, trading, construction, and automotive), each accounting for around 6%. Size-wise, 50k – 100k sq ft represented 31% of the new space, followed by 25k sq ft and 25k – 50k sq ft.

Bids for the 215-key Palazzo Versace Dubai hotel were closed on Wednesday, with a US$ 300 million base price – 18.0% lower than when it was offered for auction last year. The earlier auction processes last year were pulled because there were no viable bids on the table. It is reported that the current management will not be immediately impacted by the auction activities, with the current management agreement running to March 2028; the residences attached to the hotel are not part of the auction. With the government recently having confirmed that several properties and plots in the area would be re-designated as freehold, from their leasehold status, has piqued interest not only for the hotel but for the Al Jadaf area.

It appears that Dubai service charges will again head north, driven by an increase in operational costs including maintenance of common areas, district cooling charges and high utility costs; the increase may be as high as 10%. According to Driven Properties, the highest service charges are at Bulgari Resorts and Residence in Jumeirah Bay Island at US$ 14.63 per sq ft, followed by Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Downtown and Bluewaters The lowest rates are to be seen in Jumeirah Village Circle, Marjan, Jumeirah Lake Towers and Dubai South.

The Federal Authority for Government Human Resources has officially announced the working hours for government employees during the Holy Month of Ramadan this year. With Ramadan definitely starting tomorrow, 01 March, federal government working hours will be from 9:00am to 2:30pm, Monday to Thursday, while operations on Fridays will run from 9:00am to 12:00 noon. Flexible working hours will continue into Ramadan, and up to 30% of federal employees will be allowed to work remotely on Fridays. Meanwhile, private sector employees will have their working days reduced by two hours, as directed by the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation. Private sector companies may, in accordance with their interests and the nature of their work, apply flexible work patterns or remote work within the limits of the daily working hours specified during the month of Ramadan.

The latest project announced by Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority is a US$ 217 million investment for the Al Qudra Street Development Project. It will extend from Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road to Emirates Road via Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan Al Nahyan Street.

For the fourth consecutive year, flydubai posted record-breaking 2024 numbers, with a 16% hike in pre-tax profit, to US$ 681 million, and a total revenue of US$ 3.49 billion, 15% higher on the year; the carrier posted a 15% rise in EBITDA, at US$ 1.12 billion and all this despite the ongoing 737 MAX delivery issues. The main factors for this major improvement were the strength of flydubai’s diverse network, as well as its strong and agile business model. As a percentage, fuel costs were 4.0% lower at 28% of operating costs, due to lower average fuel price, with a closing cash balance at US$ 1.28 billion. There was an 11.0% increase to 15.4 million passengers using flydubai in 2024, as the airline added ten new destinations. It received four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft which were delivered in the first half of 2024. These aircraft were from the backlog of previous years, with the carrier expecting extensive delays, noting that it did not receive “any of the aircraft that were contractually scheduled to be delivered in 2024 due to ongoing challenges with Boeing’s delivery schedule”. The carrier’s current order book stands at one hundred and twenty-seven Boeing 737 aircraft to be delivered over the next decade, in addition to thirty Boeing 787 Dreamliners, following its first wide-body aircraft order valued at US$ 11 billion, starting from 2027. Whilst expecting “another positive” growth year in 2025, chief executive, Ghaith al Ghaith, noted that, “our strategic plans are highly influenced by the manufacturer’s ability to deliver on their promise to bring the aircraft delivery schedules back on track and clear the backlog. flydubai will receive twelve new Boeing 737s in 2025 to continue growing its fleet, replace some of its existing aircraft and support its network expansion plans”.

With the important target of strengthening the country’s position as a leading global hub for digital payments, Al Etihad Payments has launched the UAE’s first domestic card scheme. It will be available in debit, pre-paid and credit card form, and can be used in all payment channels such as online transactions, ATM withdrawals, and point-of-sale terminals; the scheme can be activated locally and internationally. The subsidiary of the Central Bank of the UAE has other aims to offer public and private clients:

  • a secure, efficient, and innovative payment solution
  • lower transaction costs by providing an effective local alternative
  • increase efficiency by accelerating local payment processes using the UAESWITCH
  • support economic growth
  • stimulate innovation in the field of payments
  • promote e-commerce
  • develop financial inclusion
  • provide financial services that meet all requirements of the society

There will be two types of Jaywan cards – mono-badge for local and GCC usage, and co-badge for international payment schemes.

DEWA has posted that its US$ 387 million Hatta pumped-storage hydroelectric power underwent operational tests last month and is 96% complete. The utility announced that it will start exporting power to the Dubai grid in April which will support the emirate’s clean energy and net zero carbon strategies. 

Parkin has introduced a new mobile app, with several innovative features including a ‘park now, pay later’ option and real-time parking finder. It will also allow users to pay parking fines, dispute charges, and request refunds. The Parkin app is available for download on iOS and Android platforms.

Almost nine years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. Today, March retail prices have dipped, between 0.4% and 1.7% (for diesel), compared to February prices. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for March is as follows:

Super 98      US$ 0.744 from US$ 0.747     in Mar                up 4.6% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.711 from US$ 0.717      in Mar                up 4.4% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.692 from US$ 0.695      in Mar               up 4.5% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.755 from US$ 0.768      in Mar               up 3.4% YTD US$ 0.730

The Dubai Financial Services Authority added a further one hundred and thirty five entities to bring the total number of regulated firm to more than nine hundred – a credible 31% hike in numbers. This growth indicates the DFSA’s ongoing commitment to strengthen the financial services sector within the Dubai International Financial Centre, whilst enhancing and maintaining robust regulatory standards. The Authority also authorised nine hundred and forty-six individuals and registered seventeen Designated Non-Financial Business or Professional corporate services providers. Fadel Al Ai, the DFSA Chairman noted, “the DFSA remains steadfast in its commitment to supporting the growth of the DIFC, contributing to the prosperity of Dubai and the UAE.”

With consolidated revenues 10.1% higher, (and up 12.6% in constant exchange rates), at US$ 16.13 billion, e&’s 2024 profit came in 4.3% higher at US$ 2.94 billion. Its subscriber base jumped 5.4%, over the year, to exceed fifteen million, whilst globally, its customer base grew 11.7% to 189.3 million. Its chairman Jassem Mohamed Bu Ataba Alzaabi, noted that, “our investments in AI ecosystems, intelligent platforms, and industry-defining solutions reinforce our role as a catalyst for change”.

The Dubai Taxi Company has signed a five-year strategic partnership with Dubai Airports, to be the exclusive provider of taxi services at Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International. Last year, as ninety-three million passengers used both airports, they were responsible for six million limousine and taxi trips, with a further 33.3% increase in numbers, to eight million, expected by 2029; projected revenues, over the next five years, have been forecast to be US$ 681 million. DTC operates a dedicated airport fleet of some nine hundred taxis, including seven hundred dedicated airport taxis.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 24 February, three points lower, (0%), higher the previous week, shed forty-one points (0.8%), to close the trading week on 5,318 points by Friday 28 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.38 higher the previous five weeks, shed US$ 0.23, closing on US$ 3.65 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.76 US$ 2.11 and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02 US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.39. On 28 February, trading was at three hundred and sixty-five million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and ninety million dollars, compared to three hundred and twelve million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-eight million dollars on 21 February.

In 2024, the bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 28 February at 5,318 was 1,255 points (30.9%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.49, to close on 28 February at US$ 3.65. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2024 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed February 2024 at US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02, US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.49.

By Friday, 28 February 2025, Brent, US$ 0.39 lower (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.40 (1.9%) to close on US$ 72.99. Gold, US$ 55 (1.9%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 94  (3.2%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,845 on 28 February 2025.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 1.82 (2.4%), to close 28 February 2025 on US$ 72.99. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of February, the yellow metal was trading at US$ 2,832 – US$ 208 (7.9%) higher YTD.

Bitcoin sank below US$ 80k on Friday for the first time in more than three months, but ended the day on US$ 83,914;; the main driver  for the sell-off was increased volatility in global markets. This was the lowest level it had been since 11 Novemebr2024 and well down on the US$ 109k plus, posted last month. Trump’s presidential victory in early November was a signal for crypto to surge since he had promised, on the campaign trail, to free up regulations surrounding digital tokens and pledged to make the US the crypto capital of the world.

Dubai-based cryptocurrency firm Bybit, and the world’s second largest, confirmed hackers stole US$ 1.5 billion worth of digital currency, in what could be the biggest crypto theft in history; the firm has said its funds were “safe”, and that it would refund any of those affected, noting that “all of clients assets are 1 to 1 backed, we can cover the loss.” The previous record was a US$ 620 million heist of Ethereum and USD Coin from the Ronin Network in 2022. It seems that hackers stole from its Ethereum coin digital wallet, but the firm’s founder, Ben Zhou, said the money could be covered by the firm, which holds US$ 20.0 billion in assets, or by a loan from partners. Bybit says it has more than sixty million global users and offers access to various cryptocurrencies. The exchange has offered a recovery bounty programme, as it called on the “brightest minds in cyber security and crypto analytics” to join the global hunt for the hackers. A 10% reward of the amount recovered will be paid to cyber and network security experts who help retrieve the stolen booty. Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority is “actively monitoring” the situation, while noting that the hack remains a “highly evolving matter that we will continue to closely track until it stabilises”. Vara clarified that Bybit had not been granted a regulatory licence in Dubai.

Over the next four years, Apple is set to invest US$ 500 billion, (its “largest-ever spend commitment”), which will see a new advanced, 250k sq ft manufacturing factory in Texas, expansion of its data centre capacity in North Carolina, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona and Nevada, as well as the creation of 20k jobs, with the “vast majority” of roles in R&D, software and AI.  The new factory is set to produce servers that were “previously manufactured outside the US” to support Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI system. The tech firm said the sum included everything from spending on suppliers to Apple TV+ productions and also confirmed that it would be doubling, to US$ 10.0 billion, its support for a fund dedicated to US manufacturing, which it created in Trump’s first term.

Microsoft has confirmed that, in May, it will close its video-calling service, Skype – released in 2003. It quickly became one of world’s most popular websites and allowed people to make free global voice calls, via their computers, and formerly had hundreds of millions of users. Microsoft acquired the firm for US$ 8.5 billion in 2011, with Skype becoming integrated with the company’s other products such as Xbox and Windows devices. Users can now use MS Teams.

The 2024 year was an impressive year for Nvidia, with a record high revenue of US$ 130.5 billion, attributable to robust demand for its chips to power AI in data centres. In its fiscal Q4, which ended last month, the firm posted a staggering revenue of US$ 39.3 billion, with net income at US$ 22.0 billion, as the tech juggernaut successfully ramped up “massive-scale” production of its new top-of-the-line Blackwell processors for powering AI, logging billions in sales. Its Q1 forecast sees revenue at US$ 43.0 billion. Nvidia rode the wave of the AI boom stock prices, until a steep sell-off in January, triggered by the sudden success of DeepSeek – but these latest figures will ameliorate market concerns. However, high-end versions of Nvidia’s chips face US export restrictions to China. Nvidia relies heavily on Taiwan’s TSMC for the production of its graphics processing units, raising concerns it faces geopolitical risks.

Saying he wanted to see Starbucks, (which employs some 360k), return to its roots as a coffee house, chief executive Brian Niccol, wants to shrink its menu by nearly a third over the next year, hoping to reduce wait times and improve quality and consistency. (His first step this week was to axe the Royal English Breakfast Latte, White Hot Chocolate and several kinds of blended frappuccinos – a major move by a person whose pay packet is estimated to be over US$ 100 million). With flagging sales in its home market, 8% lower in Q4, the US, and elsewhere, cost cutting is imperative, so Starbucks is cutting 1.1k jobs and simplifying its menu in the US and at the same time hopes it “make way for innovation, help reduce wait times, improve quality and consistency, and align with our core identity as a coffee company.” Starbucks’ supremo also wrote that “our intent is to operate more efficiently, increase accountability, reduce complexity and drive better integration”.

Aldi, the UK’s leading supermarket chain, has unveiled new pay rates that will make its employees the best-paid in the supermarket sector, as from tomorrow, 01 March. It will pay all shop workers at least US$ 16.16 an hour nationally, and US$ 17.80, within the M25, with those with a longer service record seeing rises to US$ 17.31, (nationally) and US$ 18.18; entry staff will see a 1.0% rise to US$ 16.16, after Sainsbury’s had lifted their entry-level hourly wage to US$ 15.97.

What also angers a lot of energy consumers is not only the profits they make but also the remuneration packages of senior management. For example, this week Susan Davy, the chief executive of water company Pennon, the parent company of South West Water, addressed MPs on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee. She was in charge of the water utility responsible for an outbreak of cryptosporidium that resulted in an eight-week boil water notice for parts of Devon and left hundreds sick last May. She also acknowledged that the company had “a lot more to do” on customer service and engagement and “isn’t where it needs to be” on environmental performance. She was also asked about her 2023 58.4% pay rise to US$ 1.09 million and defended it on the basis that she did not take her bonus and that it was deserved as it had been set by a remuneration committee, rather than by her, and she was “well paid for what is a very responsible and accountable role”. She added there was no means for customer bill rises to be considered in awarding her pay. South West Water bills are set to rise 32% over the next five years.

The Dutch-based tech investor, Prosus, which already had a 28% stake in global rival Delivery Hero, has confirmed that it had made an all-cash offer, and valued Just Eat at US$ 4.27 billion. This equates to a 22% premium on the highest share value over the previous three months, which was trading on the Amsterdam exchange at US$ 21.31. Just Eat, Europe’s biggest meal delivery firm, said the offer was unanimously supported by its management and board; it also confirmed that its current leadership would remain in place, and it would continue to be based in Amsterdam. The firm also announced a 35% rise in 2024 pre-tax profits to US$ 482.86 million, citing an improvement in its key UK and Ireland market, mainly due to lower costs of fulfilling orders and more efficient marketing. The buying firm commented that “we believe that combining Prosus’s strong technical and investment capabilities with Just Eat Takeaway.com’s leading brand position in key European markets will create significant value for our customers, drivers, partners, and shareholders.” It also added that it wanted to create a “European champion” for food delivery.

A sure indicator, that Chinese travel demand has bounced back, was figures, in January, that several major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, had returned double-digit growth in passenger capacity and turnover, with strong performance on international routes. Air China, and its subsidiaries, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines posted 10.0%, 11.8% and 12.5% annual increases in passenger capacity and hikes of 12.1%, 19.7% and 17.7% in passenger turnover. Hainan Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines also registered solid growth, with capacity increases of 18.7%, 18.7% and 17.2% respectively. Apart from the Chinese New Year, occurring last month, the triple whammy of increased capacity, visa facilitation, and the easing of travel restrictions helped boost international travel.

Singapore’s biggest bank, DBS employs a total of around 41k people and currently has up to 9k temporary and contract workers. This week, it announced over 4k roles, over the next three years, will be lost, as AI takes on more work currently done by humans. Permanent staff are not expected to be affected by the cuts, with DBS expecting to recruit some 1k AI personnel to boost its current eight hundred number and forecasts that the measured economic impact of these to exceed US$ 745 million this year. AI has come to the fore in recent times and the IMF believe that last year, it affected nearly 40% of all global jobs, with its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warning that “in most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality”. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the BoE, noted that while there are risks with AI, “there is great potential with it”, adding that AI will not be a “mass destroyer of jobs” and human workers will learn to work with new technologies.

A new report from Blume Ventures notes that nearly 72% of the 1.4 billion Indian population lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services, and that only about 10% of the population could be counted as consuming class. The study also concluded that another three hundred million are “emerging” or “aspirant” consumers, but they are reluctant spenders who have only just begun to open their purse strings, as click-of-a-button digital payments make it easy to transact. Surprisingly, it also noted that the consuming class is “deepening” not “widening”, indicating that the country’s wealthy class is not growing in numbers but growing in wealth, with the poor losing purchasing power, supporting the theory that India’s post-pandemic recovery has been K-shaped. Two interesting features noted in the report were the booming sales of ultra-luxury gated housing, with affordable homes now constituting just 18% of India’s overall market, compared with 40% five years ago. The other being that the country has been getting increasingly more unequal, with the top 10% of Indians now holding 57.7% of national income compared with 34% in 1990, as the bottom half have seen their share of national income fall from 22.2% to 15%. The report also noted that India’s middle class, being squeezed  out, as wages have remained flat, with the middle 50% of the country’s tax-paying population having seen its income stagnate in absolute terms over the past decade, implying a halving of income in real terms; this is one of the main reasons why the net financial savings of Indian households are approaching a fifty-year low.

In its aim to slash the size of the federal workforce, the Internal Revenue Services has already seen 6k laid off, during a period which is in the middle of the tax season, as millions of Americans file their returns. This week, the defence department axed more than 5k jobs, as part of a goal to reduce its nearly million-strong civilian workforce by up to 8%. Elon Musk had been appointed to lead DOGE, (Department of Government Efficiency), to implement the layoffs as part of a cost-cutting drive.

Last Saturday, US government workers received an email asking them to list their accomplishments from the past week or resign! Earlier, Elon Musk had posted that employees would “shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.” The American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union representing federal employees, criticised the message as “cruel and disrespectful” and vowed to challenge any “unlawful terminations” of federal employees. Nevertheless, Trump earlier said that a crowd of supporters at Cpac that the work of federal employees had been inadequate because some of them work remotely at least some of the time, and that “we’re removing all of the unnecessary, incompetent and corrupt bureaucrats from the federal workforce”.

He also added, “we want to make government smaller, more efficient,” and “we want to keep the best people, and we’re not going to keep the worst people.”

As the Starmer government has promised a purge of regulators in a bid to get the UK economy moving again, there are reports that the Payment Systems Regulator, which employs about one hundred and sixty people, could be scrapped and incorporated into the Financial Conduct Authority. The financial decision to abolish the UK payments watchdog is expected in the coming weeks. The aim of the total exercise is to cut red tape and stimulate economic growth, with the first casualty last month being Marcus Bokkerink, the chairman of the Competition and Markets Authority, because it was felt that the body was paying too little heed to UK competitiveness. Since then, both the chair and chief executive of the Financial Ombudsman Service have announced plans to step down. It is reported that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will soon order an audit of roughly one hundred and thirty regulators across the economy to assess whether they were sufficiently focused on growth. In December, the PM and Chancellor sent a joint letter to about fifteen major regulators – including Ofcom, Ofgem and Ofwat – demanding ideas for how to remove bureaucracy from the economy and more proactively encourage growth.

With European January sales almost halving, and facing increased pressure from Chinese EVs and other competitors, Tesla saw its shares slump 9% on Tuesday, bringing its market cap to less than US$ 1 trillion for the first time in three months. Another potential reason for the fall may be down to potential buyers taking a ‘principled stand’ against its owner’s political position. According to trade body Acea, even total European EV sales rose by more than a third last month, Tesla sales across the EU, EFTA and the UK fell more than 45%, and more than 50% in the EU alone; last year, Tesla sales declined for the first time in more than a decade.

With industry regulator Ofgem increasing the price cap for the third time in a row, the average annual energy bill will rise to US$ 2,339 from April; this equates to a monthly  US$ 11.70 rise, or 6.4% higher on the year; overall typical bills will be US$ 201 higher, on the year – the first time since records began in 2022 that the  April cap has been higher the January one; the lucky four million, who fixed the cost of energy units in November, will not have to pay, unlike the seven million users who will be charged. Average households have paid US$ 3,795 more for energy since 2020, with the energy regulator estimating that the average household will have to find for their energy will reach an estimated US$ 3,815 by the end of June 2025. The energy regulator estimates Europe has seen a price spike due to strong demand in recent months, driven by colder than average weather.

If energy prices did not present enough problems for UK consumers, April will see both council taxes and water bills also move higher which may be partly offset by marginal rises in the minimum and living wages. On top of that, employers’ national insurance contributions will also move north with a 1.2% hike to 15.0%.

Eleven years after he was forced out as the chairman of the Co-op Bank, Paul Flowers, has had his day in court and has been jailed for three years on fraud charges. At the time, there were claims of inappropriate expenses and illegal drugs allegations, and this week the septuagenarian admitted eighteen counts of fraud, worth over US$ 125k. He committed the offences against an elderly and vulnerable friend, Margaret Jarvis, as executor of her will. She trusted Flowers because of his high-profile public roles and he went on splurging his ill-gotten gains on drugs, holidays and gifts for himself. In 2017, he had hit the financial headlines because of his role at the bank which had to be bailed out by US hedge funds, following which he was banned from the financial services industry by the City watchdog. Coincidentally, he was also a former Methodist minister but not the first person of cloth to hit the financial headlines in recent times – Paula Vennels, the disgraced and scandal-ridden Post Office CEO, was an ordained Anglican priest.

Already facing a 10% tariff, China has been hit with a further 10% salvo, with the US President raising the stake; he has also intimated that he will move forward with a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, which are set to come into effect on 04 March. These three trading partners of the US account for more than 40% of its imports. If they go ahead, the impact will be felt more in Mexico and Canada, whilst higher prices in the US are inevitable, with domestic consumer confidence being damaged, and the global markets will be spooked.

There was a dramatic and extraordinary ending to the week at the White House. After relatively soft meetings with Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, Donald Trump met Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, today.  He had come to see the US President and sign both a ceasefire agreement, along with a rare metals’ deal, worth billions. What transpired was an ugly confrontation that ended in chaos and seriously threatened any peace talks, at least in the short-term. No doubt it made great television but did nothing for diplomacy, but Instead, he was unceremoniously kicked out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, and told It’s  Time To Go Now!

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Hit The Road Jack!

Posted on February 21, 2025 by howesdubai

Hit The Road Jack!                                                                                    21 February 2025

Under the new Smart Rental Index, launched last month, Dubai landlords now have to notify tenants ninety days before the expiry of tenancy contracts to increase rentals; this regulation applies even if the property qualifies for a rent increase under the new index. This week, the Dubai Land Department clarified that where the landlord had provided the required ninety-day notice – and the previous index supported the increase – but the new index does not, the renewal date will be determined based on two points: either the previous index will be applied, if the contract was renewed before 2025, or the new index will be enforced if the contract is renewed during 2025. Last year, Dubai recorded an 8.0% hike in the number of lease contracts to over 900k.  The new index uses various factors when calculating the applicable rent increase, including rental contract values in the building, the average rental values in the area, and the building classification. It also uses AI to deliver accurate and standardised rental price assessments to cover all residential areas, including key districts, special development zones, and free zones. This modus operandi ensures fairness, and strengthens confidence in Dubai’s real estate sector, as well as it mitigates the impact of inflation, with the aim of bringing stability to rentals and maintaining them at a more realistic level. It is estimated that rents increased, for the sixteenth consecutive quarter in Q4, with villa and apartment rents jumping 16% and 13% respectively.

Abu Dhabi-based Aldar has released ‘The Wilds’ – its third foray into the Dubai market, (in partnership with Dubai Holding), following the success of the ‘Haven’ and ‘Athlon’.   ‘The Wilds’ will have about 1.7k homes, (each one surrounded by eco corridors and green spaces), including five- and six-bedroom mansions, designed by Lebanese architect Nabil Gholam. Prices for three-bedroom villas will start at US$ 1.4 million, and US$ 2.72 million to US$ 3.0 million for more premium options. The development will see an international school, along with outdoor learning spaces and eco-focused facilities. There will also be a pond and dry stream habitats, as well as manmade bird nests and bee-keeping zones.

Yesterday, Azizi Developments introduced its international launch of the world’s second-tallest tower in seven global cities – Dubai, Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo. Dubai’s Burj Azizi, slated for completion by 2028 and located on SZR, is a one hundred and thirty-one plus storey tower that will encompass residential, hotel, retail, and entertainment spaces. On the residential side, it will house apartments with one, two, or three bedrooms, and for every twenty floors of residences, an amenity floor is planned, consisting of swimming pools, with sauna and steam room, a gym/yoga centre, a spa, a games room including billiards, chess and ping-pong, a business centre, a kids’ play area, a cinema, a restaurant/coffee shop, and a supermarket. Burj Azizi will also house an all-suite seven-star hotel inspired by seven cultural themes: Arabic, Chinese, Persian, Indian, Turkish, French, and Russian. It also revealed the prices of apartments in the world’s second-tallest tower Burj Azizi. The prices of ultra-luxury units start from US$ 1,948 per sq ft, while the highest has been priced at US$ 9,264 per sq ft. Apartment prices start at US$ 2.04 million, while the most expensive has been priced at US$ 42.50 million. There are reports that on the first day of sales, one hundred and ten units were sold, including a US$ 17 million penthouse.

According to Skyscrapercenter’s data, Dubai is home to thirty-three towers taller than three hundred-plus metres and is the number one in the world. It also boasts having fourteen of the one hundred tallest global towers including Burj Khalifa, Marina 101, Princess Tower, 23 Marina, Elite Residence, The Address Boulevard, Ciel Tower, Almas Tower, Gevora Hotel, II Primo Tower, JW Marriott Marquis Hotel Tower 1, JW Marriott Marquis Hotel Tower 2, Emirates Tower One and The Torch.

Corinthia Hotels and Dubai General Properties have announced a mixed-use one hundred and two storey tower development, including a hotel and branded residences, located on SZR near to the Museum of the Future. The development, with a 330k sq mt built up area and set to open in 2030, will comprise a one hundred and twenty-key luxury hotel, alongside Corinthia-branded serviced penthouses and apartments. It will boast the world’s highest outdoor sky pool, at over five hundred mt, with panoramic 360-degree views The property is owned by Dubai General Properties LLC, while Corinthia Hotels will provide management and expertise to operate the development. Another Corinthia Group subsidiary, QP, a multidisciplinary design and project management firm, will provide project management and design services.

As part of its extension plans, that include Maldives and Saudia Arabia, Aman is set to invest US$ 436 million on a residential project in Jumeirah 2. Located at the end of Dubai Water Canal, the project will comprise one hundred hotel suites and eighty-two Aman-branded residences. Handover date for Aman Residences Dubai is slated for December 2028, with building to start in Q3. The project is being developed by H&H Investments and Development, through its subsidiary Blackwood Development.

According to Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Chairman of the UAE Tourism Council, hotels in the UAE generated just over US$ 1.0 billion, (4.0% higher on the year), in the ten months to October 2024. Occupancy was 2.7% higher at 78.0%. The Minister was chairing the first 2025 UAE Tourism Council meeting, in which he highlighted the ongoing expansion of Emirati tourism across various sectors, supporting the National Tourism Strategy 2031.

Monday saw the opening of the five-day Gulfood 2025, with a visit from HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, where he commended the exhibition’s impressive growth over the years, noting that the ongoing edition marks the largest in its history. The event, which as usual was being held at the Dubai World Trade Centre, will feature 4.6k exhibitors, showcasing over one million products, from one hundred and six countries. The thirtieth edition of Gulfood goes under the theme ‘The Next Frontier in Food’. HH Sheikh Mohammed highlighted the value of the event, as a key platform for building partnerships and striking deals within one of the most vital sectors globally. The Dubai Ruler emphasised that the UAE always strives to remain a global hub for building partnerships and exchanging knowledge to address present needs and prepare the ground for a prosperous future for humanity. He highlighted how major exhibitions, hosted by Dubai, offer an ideal opportunity to exchange ideas, discover new opportunities, and build partnerships with the private sector across the globe.

On the sidelines of Gulfood 2025, it was reported that Dubai Industrial City had attracted more than US$ 95 million in investments from the food and beverage sector last year. The region’s leading industrial and logistics ecosystem announced that, last year, it attracted more than twenty-five F&B customers, leasing 1.7 million sq ft of high-quality industrial spaces – an indicator of the growing business confidence in Dubai’s position as a hub for innovation and market expansion.  Located close to Al Maktoum International Airport, Jebel Ali Port, an Etihad Rail freight terminal, and key regional roadways, DIC hosts more than 1.1k local, regional, and international manufacturing companies and over three hundred and fifty operational factories. In 2024, the two notable F&B investments at DIC were:

  • Silver Line Gate Group’s integrated hub to annually produce more than 100k tonnes of dairy products, including milk products and butter, each year
  • Pure Ice Cream, the manufacturer of brands such as Kwality Ice Creams and Hershey’s Ice Cream, signed a musataha agreement to launch a production facility. It will be among the UAE’s largest ice cream factories upon launch in 2026, increasing Pure Ice Cream’s annual capacity by 300%

President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, were in attendance at the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the two countries. The CEPA was signed by the Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy. As a result of this agreement, and with immediate effect, 99% of Ukrainian imports of UAE goods and 97% of Ukrainian exports to the UAE will be exempt from customs duties. The net financial result is estimated at a US$ 369 million contribution to UAE’s GDP and US$ 874 million to Ukraine’s economy. It will also create new opportunities for cooperation in sectors such as infrastructure, heavy industry, aviation, aerospace, and IT. Last year, bilateral trade topped US$ 372 million. There have been twenty-four CEPAs signed to date, covering a marketplace of more than 2.5 billion people, all part of the country’s broader efforts to expand its global trade partnerships and enhance investment opportunities across multiple sectors so that non-oil trade will hit AED 4 trillion (US$ 1.09 trillion) by 2031.

According to the 2025 Edelman Trust in Government Report, the UAE, with eighty-two points, was ranked third in the government trust rankings, behind Saudi Arabia and China. Furthermore, the country remains the most trusted institution among four key sectors which also include business, media, and NGOs. The annual survey, now in its twenty-fifth year, was carried out online between 25 October to 16 November last year and garnered responses from over 33k individuals, across twenty-eight countries, with approximately 1.15k respondents per country. In a social media post HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “Trust has been built over fifty years of legitimate work and achievement… and today, under the leadership of my brother [His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan], trust is strengthened… credibility is entrenched… and the people rally more around their government and leadership to create the best developmental experience and the highest standard of living for people worldwide.”

In 2024, Dubai International Financial Centre had its best ever year, posting a 1.82k increase in new registrations, to over 7k, with now over 46k being employed in DIFC. It registered record combined revenues, at US$ 485 million, with a 55.0% uplift in operating profit to US$ 36 million. Tech companies increased by an annual 38% to 1.25k. Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed noted that, “we remain committed to further enhancing an integrated global financial ecosystem that fosters innovation and reinforces Dubai’s standing as a future-focused international financial centre.”

The Dubizzle Group has acquired Hatla2ee, a leading Egyptian automotive portal. Its CEO MENA, Haider Khan, noted “Egypt’s dynamic automotive sector presents immense opportunities and by integrating Hatla2ee’s expertise with our technology-driven ecosystem, we aim to enhance the buying and selling experience for millions of users”. The Egyptian company, founded in 2016, and with over two million unique monthly visitors, offers a range of services including buying and selling of both new and used cars, along with car evaluations, financing options, and real-time market pricing insights.

Jebel Ali Port posted its highest container and breakbulk cargo volumes, in a decade, handling 15.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2024 – 68% higher on the year; the figure equates to nearly 18.0% of DP World’s total 2024 global container throughput of 88.3 million TEUs. Breakbulk cargo also saw significant growth, surging by 23% on the year to reach 5.4 million metric tonnes – the second-highest performance since 2015.The DP World entity continues to be the leading trade and logistics hub in the region.

As previously advised by Parkin, vehicle parking at major events in Dubai will be charged at US$ 6.81, (AED 25), an hour which came into effect on Monday, at the start of Gulfood 2025. The parking company confirmed that this new variable tariff applies at spots near concerts, festivals, conferences and exhibitions with the affected zones being 335X, 336X and 337X, and situated in areas surrounding Dubai World Trade Centre. Parkin confirmed, “special event parking zones, with adjusted rates, will be activated to accommodate higher vehicle volumes.” 

In its first full year of operations since its IPO, 2024 saw Dubai Taxi Company’s financial indicators all moving higher, driven by the emirate’s population/tourism growth and continuing urban expansion. Revenue was 12.0% higher on the year, at US$ 599 million, and net profit, before tax and interest,  up 18%, whilst EBITDA rose 19.0% to US$ 159 million, with a 27% margin. Reported net profit declined by 4% year-on-year to US$ 90 million, due to the introduction of corporate tax in and increased interest costs. DTC’s taxi segment, which has a 47% market share, saw a 12.0% rise in revenue to US$ 523 million, attributable to increased trip numbers, as it added a further seven hundred and forty-four vehicles in the year to bring its fleet numbers to 5.96k. The limousine segment posted an annual 8.0% revenue to US$ 34 million. DTC’s taxis and limousines completed more than forty-nine million trips during the year – 6% higher on the year. The bus segment registered an 11.0% increase to US$ 32 million, driven by new service contracts and an expanded fleet size. Its delivery bike segment posted a 2.3 times increase in its revenue.

Dubai Islamic Bank posted its 2024 financials, all showing significant increases – pre-tax profit up 27% to US$ 2.45 billion, net profit climbed 16% higher to US$ 2.23 billion, net operating revenues by 10% to US$ 3.50 billion, and total income, 16% to the good at US$ 6.36 billion. On the balance sheet side, the UAE’s largest Islamic bank registered a 10% hike in financing and sukuk investments to US$ 80.38 billion and customer deposits by 12% to US$ 67.85 billion, with current and savings accounts deposits 1.3% higher, contributing over 38% of the total. There was a 71.0% marked reduction in impairment charges to US$ 111 million, which saw a 1.4% reduction in non-performing finance to 4.0%. Driven by ongoing automation and digitalisation efforts, the bank posted an improvement in operational efficiency, with the cost to income ratio down 0.4% to 26.7%; its Liquidity Coverage Ratio came in at 159%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 17 February, one hundred and eighty-two points, (3.4%), higher the previous fortnight, shed three points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,359 points by Friday 21 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 0.15, closing on US$ 3.88 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.80, US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.38 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.76 US$ 2.11 and US$ 0.38. On 21 February, trading was at three hundred and twelve million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-eight million dollars, compared to three hundred and one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and eighty-five million dollars on 14 February.

By Friday, 21 February 2025, Brent, US$ 0.07 higher (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.39 (0.5%) to close on US$ 74.39. Gold, US$ 17 (1.8%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 55 (1.9%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,939 on 21 February 2025.

Early Friday morning, gold had hit another record high, (for the tenth time this year), trading at US$ 2,955 per oz, driven by concerns of a possible global trade war, mainly because of Donald Trump’s tariff threats; his latest ‘targets’ relate to lumber, cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals which he will announce “over the next month or sooner”. Even though fundamentals point to gold being overvalued, it can only be a matter of time before it tops the magical US$ 3k figure.

Wynn Resorts CEO, Craig Billing, is confident in the potential of the UAE’s gaming market, predicting it could reach between US$ 3 billion and US$ 5 billion over time. He also indicated that he would not be concerned if the regulators were to grant another licence in a different emirate. He added that Wynn Al Marjan is “the most exciting development project in the industry,” and that “we don’t believe that every emirate will avail themselves of potential licence by any means…We’re opening in March 2027, so think about the fact that it takes a minimum of four years to design and build an integrated resort. You can imagine that we’re going to have a very, very healthy lead.” The casino’s financial projections take into account the opening of a second casino in the UAE, and that “would be good for the industry”. The topping off Al Marjan is scheduled “towards the end of this year.”

Last October, Wynn Resorts announced that the local regulator, the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority, had issued a Commercial Gaming Facility Operator licence to the entity developing the Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in Ras Al Khaimah. Last month, Wynn acquired Aspinalls in Mayfair London, which will give the operator a presence in the centre of the city, and a London base for some of its clients.  Wynn Resorts earlier this month said that it completed financing for the development of the Wynn Al Marjan Island project after it obtained a US$ 2.4 billion syndicated loan from a range of banks. Its remaining outstanding equity contribution to this project is up to US$ 773 million, with about 50% payable this year and the balance in 2026. Its contribution to date has been $632 million, including US$ 99 million contributed in Q4.

With its reworking of operations and market coverage, it seems that it has been successful as HSBC posts a US$ 2.0 billion surge in its 2024 profit before tax to US$ 32.3 billion; profit after tax came in, US$ 400 million higher, at US$ 25.0 billion. The net interest margin for the year ended up at 1.56%, lower by ten bp. Its US$ 0.87 per share dividend incudes a special payout of US$ 0.21 per share. HSBC is also to finalise a US$ 2.0 billion share buyback in Q1. In the near term, the bank is targeting US$ 1.5 billion in savings through the ongoing re-organisation by the ‘de-duplication of roles’, through a more simplified organisational structure, and a reduction in staff expenses by around 8%. Although it made a US$ 4.8 billion gain from selling its business in Canada, this balance, plus a further US$ 1.0 billion, was wiped out by losses stemming from exiting its Argentinian operations. Furthermore, there was also US$ 5.2 billion losses attributed to the recycling of ‘foreign currency reserve losses and other reserves’.

Having already earmarked a US$ 570 million provision to cover the costs of its car finance mis-selling scandal, Lloyds Banking Group has now increased the required provision to US$ 1.52 billion, which has obviously impacted its 2024 profits. It posted a pre-tax profit of US$ 7.56 billion, down from US$ 9.50 billion a year earlier, as the UK economy faltered, and interest rates came down. Lloyds is not the only bank implicated in the scandal over its treatment over commission paid to car dealers, with millions of motorists potentially in line for compensation. They include the likes of Barclays, having set aside US$ 114 million and Santander with a US$ 375 million provision. The Supreme Court will decide in April on the question of whether people taking out car loans were properly informed over how commission was paid, possibly leading them to be charged more. Banks and other financial institutions now await and may be liable to pay compensation over some deals, particularly before rules were changed in 2021. One sure thing is that Lloyds will have to pay some penalty but is likely to be less than 10% of the US$ 27.73 billion it paid, over its role in the PPI mis-selling saga in 2019.

Japan saw its core consumer inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, move at its fastest pace – 3.2% – in nineteen months which will probably see the central bank continuing to raise rates, and maybe more aggressively; in December, the rate had been 3.0%.  Because of the market becoming more bullish on interest rates moving higher, bond yields nudged north. The Bank of Japan consider another index, which strips out costs of both fresh food and fuel, as a better indicator of demand-driven inflation, and this rose 2.5% in January – the fastest year-on-year pace since March 2024, when the index rose 2.9%.

In a desperate move to tackle surging home prices and give young voters a chance to get onto the housing ladder, the Australia’s government will ban foreign investors from buying established houses for the next two years, starting on 01 April 2025. According to the Australian Taxation Office, overseas investors bought US$ 3.12 billion of residential real estate — including vacant land, new and established dwellings – in the fiscal year ending 30 June 2023; this accounted for about 33% of the total sales. The country’s housing is some of the most unaffordable in the world and with a general election due by 17 May at the latest, in what promises to be a close fight, between the two protagonists – Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton – the country’s thirty-first PM needs to be seen helping the disenfranchised millennials and other house-buyers. Over the past decade, Sydney housing values have jumped almost 70% with the median dwelling price now around US$ 762k – and still climbing.

The US President is definitely not a shrinking violet and, this week alone, he has managed to upset the Ukrainian president, European leaders and Boeing. The latter has had a turbulent few years, most of which seemed to be self-inflicted. In his first term in office, he approved two updated versions of Air Force One, (which is now thirty-five years old), based on the modern Boeing 747-8; delivery was scheduled for 2024 but now has been put back to 2028. He has complained about it taking the plane maker too long to build planes and has threatened that “we may buy a plane or get a plane, or something,” and “I’m not happy with Boeing”. However, he will not consider buying an Airbus alternative but “I could buy one that was used and convert it.” A few days ago, Trump visited a thirteen-year-old Boeing 747-800 that had been owned by the Qatari royal family while it was parked at Palm Beach International Airport.

The Bank of England is facing a conundrum as inflation figures remain stubbornly high, (with the Consumer Price Index posting a 0.5% hike, in January, to 3.0%), as it needs to balance whether to bring it down to its 2.0% long-term target, by keeping higher interest rates, or risk dampening the economy too far by lowering interest rates too quickly. The main drivers behind the January increase were food/drink prices rising 3.3% on the year, (compared to 2.0% in the year to December), a smaller than expected decline in plane ticket costs and private school fees, 13.0% higher, as new VAT rules were introduced; it was the highest annual rate since last March. However, the money is on there being no rate cut at next month’s BoE meeting, with more inflation rises expected, throughout 2025, with the possibility of reaching 4.0% by year end.

More misery for the suffering UK populace is news that, as from this April, most English councils are set to increase council tax by the maximum amount of at least 4.99%. Councils are facing rising costs, and even more if they legally have to provide services such as social care, education, housing and waste services. Latest statistics indicate that 85% of the one hundred and thirty-nine top-tier authorities that have proposed or confirmed rises so far are planning to do so by 4.99%. Even though any local authority who wants to lift this tax to 5.0% or above must carry out a local referendum, under normal circumstances, but because being in severe financial trouble, six councils have been given authority to increase council tax beyond this level without a vote. Only fifteen councils are planning increases below 4.99%, including Wandsworth, (4.98%) and Kensington & Chelsea (4.0%), down to Lincolnshire (2.99%) and Wandsworth (2.0%).

In January, official figures indicate that government borrowing was more expensive than expected, and tax revenue fell below expectations. The end result is that the Chancellor is coming under increased pressure to raise taxes or cut public spending. In the month, the Office for National Statistics posted that the month saw the greatest budget surplus since records began in 1993, as the public sector took in more taxes and other income than it spent, leading to a surplus of US$ 19.46 billion. However, borrowing was US$ 14.65 billion more than a year earlier and the fourth highest on record. For the year, borrowing came in at US$ 146.55 billion, well ahead of the OBR’s forecast of US$ 133.16 billion. Normally, January is a big earner for the taxman, as self-assessed returns come in, but the tax revenue and the surplus were below economists’ forecasts; in the month, UK long-term borrowing costs soared, as the pound dipped lower, whilst ten and thirty-year borrowing costs soared. Consequently, government borrowing costs surged in the month, resulting in decades=high interest rates for government bonds, with the Chancellor may having to break her self-imposed fiscal rules – to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030. Undoubtedly if both inflation levels and interest rates move higher, then Rachel Reeves is in deep political trouble and the inevitable tax rises and spending cuts, maybe as early as the 26 March budget.

The new year started with a surprise for the embattled UK retail sector, with figures from the Office for National Statistics indicating that monthly retail sales were up by 1.7% – well above the 0.3% the market had expected – and a major improvement on the 0.6% fall posted in December. The main driver was from food shop sales rising 5.6% – the greatest amount since March 2020, when the lockdowns began. Allied with other recent data there has been increased consumer sentiment, as the figures show a strengthening economy. Another major feature has been the combination of wage rises and interest rate which have boosted consumer confidence.

Monday saw the possible return of Jack Ma, who was seen at a business leaders’ meeting with Chinese president, Xi Jinping; he had suddenly departed from public life, after he had criticised China’s financial sector in 2020. On the news, tech stocks climbed higher, including Alibaba, which ended the day 8% higher, with its value having risen by some 60% YTD. His appearance was seen as a sign that he may have been rehabilitated, as he was sitting in the front row and even shook hands with the Chinese supremo. To some analysts, the return of the poster boy for China’s tech industry could prove to bring a much-needed boost to the country’s economy. Four years ago, and after he had built one of China’s largest tech conglomerates, and had become one of the country’s richest men, he commented that China’s state-owned banks had a “pawn-shop mentality” and lamented the “lack of innovation” in the country’s banks. His misguided comments led to the cancellation of his US$ 34.5 billion stock market flotation of Ant Group, his financial technology giant, which many thought to be a government attempt to put him in his place because he had become too popular, too powerful and too outspoken.

At the meeting, Xi Jinping told those present that their companies needed to innovate, grow and remain confident, despite China’s economic challenges, which he described as “temporary” and “localised”. He also added that it was the “right time for private enterprises and private entrepreneurs to fully display their talents” – a sure sign of a change in direction from the government, with private tech firms back in the fold which were badly needed to boost the economy. This was after such companies had been taken to task and were forced to face much tighter enforcement of data security and competition rules, as well as state control over important digital assets; at the time, billions of dollars were wiped off many tech companies. Subsequently China suffered from a much weaker domestic economy, not helped by a property sector downturn, slow consumer spending and a marked rise in youth unemployment. On top of that, the country was slow in recovering post pandemic and then was hit by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. It could also be seen as a sign that the country’s leadership is changing tack and, to avoid any further stagnation, may be prepared to loosen its grip on the private sector. The attendee list showcased the importance of internet/tech/AI/EV sectors, given their representation of innovation and achievement. Another player in this game was the arrival of DeepSeek’s disruptive R1 artificial intelligence and its global impact; its success against its much more expensive US peers, has had a double whammy of knocking major US tech stocks, with its success leading to increased inward investment, and a surge in national pride which has continued into the financial markets.

With the Chinese president increasingly emphasising policies that the government has referred to as “high-quality development” and “new productive forces” there will be a move away from the former drivers of growth, such as property and infrastructure investment, towards high-end industries such as semiconductors, clean energy and AI.  It appears that the government is trying to combine a controlled engagement, with the private sectors, especially tech, and higher living standards for everyone, driven by an economy driven by advanced manufacturing and less reliant on imports of foreign technology. The move could see an end to unregulated growth and a move toward Mr Xi’s national priorities. So it will be a welcome return for the former schoolteacher, Mr Ma, and once again it will be time for him to Hit The Road Jack!

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Don’t Worry, Be Happy!

Posted on February 15, 2025 by howesdubai

Don’t Worry, Be Happy!                                                 14 February 2025

The new year saw Dubai real estate sector continuing to bubble, following a highly successful 2024, as it posted a record 180.9k transactions, valued at US$ 142.1 billion. January witnessed impressive annual increases, for both transactions and values – 23% to 14.24k and 24% to US$ 12.09 billion. January statistics from Property Finder found that 15%, 31% and 37% of people were seeking to own or invest in studios, 1 B/R and 2 B/R apartments; in the villa sector, 37% and 50% were searching for villas with 3 B/R and 4 B/R or more. The most popular areas for apartments were Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay and Palm Jumeirah, whilst for villas/townhouses, Dubai Hills Estate, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Land, Al Furjan and Damac Hills 2 were the leading five locations.

In the month, the off-plan sector accounted for 52% of total transactions – 15.0% higher compared to January 2024 – but 1.3% lower on the year, with a value of US$ 4.14 billion. Meanwhile, the existing market moved much higher, registering an annual 33.4% surge to 6.92k, and jumping 41.0% higher in value. Palm Jebel Ali continued to be the leader, with ninety-five transactions, worth US$ 463 million, with Al Yelayiss 1 a surprise second, with sales of US$ 463 million – from just US$ 28 million in January 2024.

When analysing rental trends, it was estimated that when looking at apartments 59% preferred furnished, with 39% going for unfurnished; 21% were looking for studios, 33% of tenants were searching for 1 B/R units and 33% for 2 B/R. For villas/townhouses, it was 52:42, furnished: unfurnished, with 42% of tenants looking for 3 B/R and 35% for 4 B/R+. The top areas to rent apartments in Dubai included Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay and Deira, and renting villas/townhouses, Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, Damac Hills 2, Al Barsha and Al Furjan were the five most popular locations.

Although the month saw a 4% dip in sq ft prices, to US$ 422, Dubai property values have soared by 81.2%, post Covid. January commercial property sales rose 17.9% on the year, with three hundred and sixty-three deals, valued at US$ 327 million. Land sales soared 151.2% higher, with eight hundred and eleven transactions, worth US$ 2.3 billion.

With a twenty million sq ft area available to it, one of the biggest of Asian developers, Karachi-based Bahria Town, has launched its first project in Dubai. The developer has plans to recreate a version of the fabled Blue Mosque in Istanbul, as well having, as its centrepiece, the Eiffel Tower, in Dubai South. The first off plan releases at Bahria Town should happen in Q1, with Phase 1 likely to take four years to complete. Early releases will have prime views of the two landmarks.

Dubai South is the emirate’s largest master development, encompassing an area of one hundred and forty-five sq km, focusing on the aviation and logistics sectors, with mixed-use and residential communities. It is expected that its ecosystem could offer up to 500k job opportunities, with a triple transport infrastructure connecting air, land, and sea. With the new terminal taking shape, there will be a surge in population from its current base of 25k residents and will become home to over a million people, once the airport becomes fully operational. It is expected that by 2032, the US$ 35.0 billion passenger terminal at Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International – will fully absorb the current Dubai airport (DXB) which will be redeveloped for probably residential purposes. Dubai South will become an aerotropolis — an airport city.

Dubai’s Vantage Developments and Vittoria Group announced a strategic alliance with Venere Group, that, in April, will launch a new US$ 50 million residential tower in Jumeirah Village Circle, with the unveiling of Venere Group’s prototype Italian supercar. The one-hundred-and-forty-unit tower will have a range from apartments to penthouses, and all completely furnished with Venere Group’s Italian-made furniture; the residential tower has been designed by Milan-based architects Gandolfi e Mura.

Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, the UAE’s Minister of Economy, has forecast a 5% to 6% growth for the national economy this year, driven by strong performance in key sectors such as technology, renewable energy, trade, financial services and infrastructure. He noted that the split between oil and non-oil is 25:75 and that in the four post-Covid years to 2024, the country’s GDP had grown by an annual average of 4.8%, with non-oil GDP growth averaging 6.2%.

At this week’s World Governments Summit 2025, Elon Musk announced the Dubai Loop project, with Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, revealing further details of the Dubai Loop project. He commented that this is “set to revolutionise transportation,” and that a Memorandum of Understanding had been signed between Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority and Musk’s The Boring Company. The Crown Prince also added that under the MoU, “Dubai will explore the development of the seventeen-kilometre project,” and that there will be eleven stations for the tunnel which will have a capacity to transport over 20k passengers per hour”. He also concluded by saying that “Dubai’s spirit of innovation thrives on strong partnerships with global industry leaders. Under the leadership of @HHShkMohd, the city continues to redefine the future of transportation, both above and below ground, setting new benchmarks for sustainability, efficiency, and urban connectivity.”

Also at the World Government Summit, the RTA unveiled a new ‘Rail Bus’ vehicle, shaped like a capsule – 11.5 mt long and 2.65 mt wide – which will carry forty passengers per trip; it will travel at one hundred kph, with twin benefits being its cost-effectiveness and helping to smooth traffic flow.

This Sunday, 16 February, will see the Roads and Transport Authority holding its seventy-eighth public auction to offer three hundred exclusive two, three, four, and five-digit license plates for private and vintage vehicles, as well as motorcycles. The selection includes premium numbers across codes A, B, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, Z and the code (2) for motorcycles.   Registration opened last Monday and closed today, 14 February, with bidders having to pay a US$ 1.36k security deposit, and a non-refundable US$ 33 subscription fee. Successful bidders will need to settle their payments within ten working days after the auction concludes.

The General Civil Aviation Authority posted that the country’s civil aviation sector achieved traffic growth of 10.3%, in 2024, to 147.8 million, with air cargo growing 17.8% to 4.36 million tons. These results reflect the fact that the country is a major global hub for air transport, trade, tourism, and investment. Last year, the UAE welcomed 41.6 million inbound passengers, while 41.7 million departed, and 64.4 million transited through its airports. There was a marked increase in manpower, being 9.6k registered pilots, 35.9k cabin crew members, 4.5k engineers, 0.46k air traffic controllers, and 0.42k dispatchers. The country is home to thirty-six registered air operators, nine hundred and twenty-nine registered aircraft, including light sports aircraft. Air traffic movements reached a record of 1.03 million flights last year.

2024 proved to be a record year for DP World’s ports and terminals, as they handled 88.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), 8.3% higher on the year. Its global logistics have the capacity to handle more than one hundred million TEUs in seventy-eight countries. Group Chairman, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, commented that, “during the last ten years we have invested more than US$ 11 billion in world-class ports and logistics infrastructure to make trade flow.”, and “we are confident that the container market will continue to grow and that we have the capacity to service it. Whatever the short-term challenges, we remain bullish on the outlook for world trade.” The global company saw impressive double digit returns from Posorja terminal in Ecuador, which posted a remarkable 87% uplift in volume, to nearly one million TEUs, with double-digit growth seen at San Antonio in Chile, Yarimca in Türkiye, Chennai in India, Callao in Peru, Antwerp in Belgium and London Gateway. DP World’s flagship Jebel Ali Port posted a 7% increase from 2023. New ports and terminals added nearly one million TEUs to the total volume, including the DP World-Evyap merger in Turkey, new operations at Dar Es Salaam Port in Tanzania and the Belawan New Container Terminal in Indonesia.

DP World’s latest US$ 80 million development in Egypt will not only enhance the country’s infrastructure but also position it as a key regional trade hub; it is scheduled for completion this June.  Its Sokhna Logistics Park, a state-of-the-art logistics hub, spans 300k sq mt, and is located in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, some ten km from Sokhna Port; it offers direct access to Greater Cairo’s key markets and major industrial zones. The park will drive efficiency, reduce logistics costs, and strengthen connectivity between Egypt, the ME, Africa, and beyond. Featuring both bonded/non-bonded warehouses, as well as office space and open cargo and container yards, it will support a range of industries, such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, retail, automotive and textile.

The UAE tech-telco giant e& posted a 10.2% rise in 2024 revenue to US$ 16.13 billion, with strong growth across its telco and digital verticals; consolidated profit came in 4.3% higher to US$ 2.92 billion, driven by continuing growth from its UAE operations and its investments in overseas markets – its latest being a US$ 865 million deal to acquire a Serbian broadband and cable TV services provider.

Another record year for Emaar Properties, with revenues and property sales skyrocketing by 33.0% to US$ 9.67 billion and 72.0% to US$ 19.07 billion; 2024 net profit, (before tax), was up 25.0% to US$ 5.15 billion. On top of all this, Dubai’s leading developer registered a 55.0% surge in revenue backlog from property sales of US$ 29.97 billion. Over the year, it acquired 141 million sq ft of development land in a prime area in Dubai,  with a total development value of US$ 26.16 billion. In December, it announced a new 100% increase in its dividend policy, with its highest-ever proposed dividend of 100% of share capital for 2024, amounting to US$ 2.40 billion. It launched sixty-two new projects across all master plans in the UAE,  with its property development business achieving  property sales of US$ 17.8 billion – an annual 75.0% growth.

Last year Emaar Development posted a 61.0% hike in revenue to US$ 5.20 billion, with net profit before tax 20.0% higher at US$ 2.78 billion. The consolidated revenue of Emaar Properties from its property development business in the UAE, during 2024, reached US$ 6.40 billion, including Dubai Creek Harbour. Its shopping malls, retail, and leasing businesses generated US$ 1.53 billion in revenue, with an EBITDA of US$ 1.28 billion. Once again, Dubai Mall was the most visited destination worldwide, with one hundred and eleven million visitors. It also plans to add a further two hundred and forty luxury stores and dining outlets, for Dubai Mall, in a US$ 409 million investment. Emaar’s international sales, which contributed 8.0% of the Group’s revenue, topped US$ 1.12 billion, up 40.0% on the year, driven by strong performance in Egypt and India. Meanwhile, its hospitality, leisure, and entertainment division posted US1.00 billion in revenue, with Emaar’s UAE hotels averaging 79% occupancy while adding four new properties with five hundred rooms.

Although 2024 revenue nudged 1.7% higher to US$ 322 million, Al Ansari Financial Services posted an 18.1% decline in net profit, to US$ 111 million; as the remittance business market becomes even more competitive; it registered an EBITDA margin of 44.4%.  Although remittance volumes continue to grow, with expat residents making gains from a dollar surge, so do the number of competitive platforms that offer opportunities to send money. Rashed Al Ansari, Group CEO of Al Financial Services, noted that “we remain confident in our ability to navigate challenges, capitalise on emerging trends, and drive long-term value for all our stakeholders”. He is also concerned about “the disruptive practices of certain fintechs that undermine fair competition and create an uneven playing field for all industry participants” and has taken this complaint up with the regulators.

Another good year for Salik, with both revenue and net profit showing 6.1% annual increases  to US$ 697 million and US$ 316 million; the profit figure includes the extra 9.0% corporate tax, offset by the triple whammy of the introduction of two new gates, introduced in November, more cars on the road, (revenue generating trips 8.0% higher to 498.1 million),  and a 2.5% cut to 22.5%, in the concession fee being paid to the parent entity RTA which became effective on 01 April  2024. Salik operates toll locations in the city and this year introduced variable rates for users passing through depending on the time of the day.

The Dubai-listed parking services operator Parkin recorded a 7.5% hike in profits to US$ 115 million, as revenue jumped 18.6% to US$ 252 million in 2024. There is confidence that there will be even higher growth levels in 2025, when the utility initiates new premium tariffs in Q2, which will see variable rates for peak hours of 8am-10am  and from 4pm to 8pm.  

Dubai Electricity and Water Authority registered a record revenue of US$ 8.44 billion in 2024, with EBITDA, 6.2% higher at US$ 4.28 billion, and net profit after tax of US$ 1.97 billion. Q4 figures included revenue, EBITDA and net profit after tax of US$ 2.03 billion, US$ 1.08 billion and US$ 480 million. As per DEWA’s dividend policy, the utility expects to pay a minimum annual dividend of US$ 1.69 billion, in the first five years starting October 2022, with it being paid semi-annually in April and October. By year end, 17.8% of installed generation capacity was clean, with 6.62 TWh of clean power generated during the year – 7.47% higher compared to 2023 – as the clean power accounted for 11.2% of the total power generated in 2024. There was an annual 3.4% increase in its annual peak demand, compared to 2023, reaching 10.76 GW. During the year, customer accounts rose by 4.8% to 1.270 million

With 2024 revenues and profit coming in at US$ 3.98 billion, (up to 7% higher than expectations), and at US$ 681 million, (49.1% higher on the year), du will be paying out its highest ever dividend of US$ 0.147 a share, 58.8% higher compared to a year earlier. The combined fixed-line and mobile subscribers, (rising 600k to 8.9 million) now come close to ten million. There were increases recorded for both postpaid subscribers, up 10% to 1.8 million, and prepaid users, 2.9% higher at 7.1 million.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 10 February, fifty-nine points, (1.1%), higher the previous week, gained one hundred and twenty-three points (2.3%), to close the trading week on 5,362 points by Friday 14 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.01, closing on US$ 3.73 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.78, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.80, US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.38. On 14 February, trading was at three hundred and one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and eighty-five million dollars, compared to one hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and one million dollars on 07 February.

By Friday, 14 February 2025, Brent, US$ 4.06 lower (5.0%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.07 to close on US$ 74.78. Gold, US$ 247 (9.4%) higher the previous four weeks, shed  US$ 17 (1.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,884 on 14 February 2025. 2,884 74.78

Speaking at the World Governments Summit, Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary-General of OPEC, estimated that the required investment, to meet the expected growth in demand over the next twenty-five years, equates to US$ 17.4 trillion, or in the region of an annual US$ 640 billion. He noted that the biggest line items, exploration and production sectors, will absorb the largest share of investments, with investments of US$ 14.2 trillion, or around US$ 525 billion annually. Lesser capital expenditure items – in refining/manufacturing and transportation/storage – are expected to see spends of US$ 1.9 trillion and US$ 1.3 trillion. According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024, global oil demand is expected to exceed 120.1 mbd by the end 2050, an increase of 18.0 mbd from 2023’s 102.1 mbd. The split will see developing countries requiring an extra 28.0 mbd, (driven by population growth, urbanisation, and economic expansion), with demand falling 10.0 mbd in developed countries.

On the back of similar moves from rivals including Shell and Equinor, allied with a sharp 35.5% slump in 2024 profit levels, to US$ 8.9 billion, BP posted that it will “fundamentally reset” its strategy by scaling back renewable projects and increasing oil and gas production; it is expected that next week, it will scrap its 2020 target of achieving 50GW of renewables generation capacity by 2030 and half its previous US$ 10.0 billion in renewables until 2030. Even before this latest news, the energy giant had been scaling back by putting the majority of its offshore wind assets into a JV, with Japan’s Jera, to separate them from the company’s core fossil fuel business; last July, it also froze new wind projects. Human rights campaign group Global Witness noted that BP invested US$ 11.3 billion of its total annual balance of US$ 12.9 billion, in oil/gas, and the balance of US$ 1.6 billion on renewables and low carbon energy – a ratio of 87.4:12.6.

In a major cost-cutting exercise, and in a bid to simplify its structure and enable it to act faster, Chevron plans to slash its 45k workforce by as much as 20%, by the end of next year. Last month, the petro-giant indicated that it was looking to sell some of its assets and expand the use of robots in its operations, with resultant savings of up to US$ 3.0 billion. Even though it expects overall production to be 6.0% higher, over the next two years, it has slashed capex. Mark Nelson, vice chairman of Chevron Corp, said the company believed changes to the organisational structure would “improve standardisation, centralisation, efficiency and results”.

Troubled Boeing has posted that it will issue sixty-day notices of involuntary layoffs to about four hundred staff working on its Space Launch System moon rocket program, in line with revisions to NASA’s Artemis program and cost expectations. This program, which will have expensed US$ 93 billion by the end of the year, and set up during Donald Trump’s first presidential administration, represents the flagship American effort to return astronauts to the moon for the first time since the 1972 termination of NASA’s Apollo 17 mission. The latest program has had its share of setbacks, with Artemis 2 being delayed for almost a year, now planned for this September and the first planned manned moon landing delayed for some nine months to September 2026.

The original plan was to see a merger between Honda and Nissan, along with junior partner, Mitsubishi,  to take up the fight with global competitors, including those from China; the Japanese trinity would have resulted in an industry  powerhouse, valued at US$ 60.0 billion, and the world’s fourth-largest by vehicle sales after Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai. However, the plan has not materialised but the three companies did agree to continue their partnership on EVs. Honda was the number one in the vehicle triumvirate, followed by Nissan, still reeling from slowing sales and turmoil involving its top executives, including Carl Ghosn. The companies eventually disagreed on what role Nissan would play in the merger – equal partner or subsidiary.

Founded by Jeff Bezos in 2000, Blue Origin is planning to shelve 1.4k jobs, equating to some 10% of its current workforce; the rocket company, which has just completed the first test flight of its new Glenn rocket, has indicated that the job cuts are part of a plan to trim managerial ranks and focus resources on ramping up rocket launches. Once a leader in the field, it seems that it is now lagging behind some of its competitors, mainly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. On top of some management roles, the company will also be eliminating jobs in R&D and engineering. However, its new powerful New Glen does have some advantages over its main rival. One is  its ability to carry large and heavy payloads including satellites into space, and the other is that it is more powerful than Space X’s Falcon 9.

January saw the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, the benchmark for world food commodity prices, dip 1.9 on the month in January, averaging 124.9 points; this was still 6.2 points higher on the year but 22.0 lower from its March 2022 peak. The index tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, with an analysis of the major indices below:

Sugar Price Index      6.8 lower on the month and 18.5 on the year

                                    down to favourable weather and India resuming exports    

Oil Price Index           5.6 lower on the month and up 24.9 on the year

down to lower world prices of palm and rapeseed oils, while those for soy and sunflower oils remained stable

Meat Price Index       1.4 lower on the month

down to lower international ovine, pig and poultry meat prices outweighing an increase in bovine meat quotations

Cereal Price Index     0.3 higher on the month but 6.9 down on the year

down to a slight drop in wheat export prices while maize prices increased, partly due to lower US production and stock forecasts

All Rice Price Index   4.7 lower on the month

down to ample exportable supplies

Dairy Price Index       2.4 higher on the month and 20.4 on the year

Down to a 7.6% monthly surge in international cheese quotations, which outweighed declines in butter and milk powder prices

The latest International Monterey Fund global growth forecast remains at 3.3% this year and in 2026, before dipping to just below 3.0% for the following five years to 2031. However, its Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, speaking at the ninth Arab Fiscal Forum, part of the World Governments Summit 2025 preliminary day in Dubai, said that growth in the Mena will bounce back to 3.6% this year, because of a recovery in oil production and a hopeful easing of regional tensions/conflicts. She was bullish on UAE’s GDP growth indicating that “digital innovation, with AI technologies, is expected to raise UAE’s GDP significantly by 2030, and that more R&D spending will further enhance productivity.” On a global scale, it seems that inflation is decreasing to acceptable government target levels but in some countries, it seems to be nudging higher; that being the case, there could be a divergence in interest rates across countries and higher borrowing costs for emerging market and developing economies. She was also concerned about the level of global public debt, which the IMF expects to top 100% of global GDP by 2030. There is also the danger that some countries will be snared within a low-growth, high-debt scenario and that will have an impact on growth rates between emerging economies and middle-income countries, with some facing significant slowdowns, due to not only financial but also geopolitical pressures.

There is no doubt that Australia is in the middle of a severe housing crisis and one of the main reasons is affordability – in the 1990s, it took six years to afford a deposit for a mid-price house on an average income. Years ago, it was a given that a middle-class job could almost guarantee a life in middle suburbia. After years of trying to solve the affordability conundrum, the answer may be found across the Tasman. Fifteen years ago, Auckland was beset by a similar problem – housing was as unaffordable as is the current Sydney. However, a major planning turnabout saw the pace of building more than double, with a boom in townhouses and clamping spiralling rents and house prices.  It does seem that something similar could well benefit Australia.

However, the roots of the Australian problem go back to the 1980s. In the last two decades of the last century, the country’s standards of living grew enormously, side by side with surging demand for housing. Entering the housing market was made easier by government initiatives, including generous allowances for new buyers, tax relief and low interest rates. Almost simultaneously, house prices began to grow faster than incomes, so much so that from 2001 to today, house prices quadrupled while wages only doubled. What happened is that homeowners have become wealthy, and it is estimated that a sixty-year old home owner, on average, was twice as wealthy on their fiftieth birthday as on their fortieth and are wealthier again today. Home ownership rates have fallen sharply, and the portion of income spent on housing has increased. The current scenario for young Australians is that they have to start off with a large deposit, to help with a longer mortgage period, high repayments relative to income, and having to live in an increasingly more expensive rentals, whilst trying to pull in the deposit money. If all goes to plan, the move will be into a much smaller abode, further away from what would be preferred. In simple words, the problem could be solved – increase the supply; if that had happened, prices would have more than likely kept in tandem with pay rates. The slump, having started in the early 2000s, recovered a little in the 2010s but is now at historic lows.

Many consider that there is not enough land available to build more homes, especially medium-density housing in places where most people want to live, within reasonable distance from inner-city suburbs. Australia is definitely not the only country in the world where the planning system is notoriously complicated, time consuming, corrupt (in certain cases), and bureaucratic, beset by reams of rules and regulations. This is best summed up by Susan Lloyd Hurwitz, chair of the government’s housing supply and affordability council, commenting “our planning approval systems are too complex and too slow. Arrangements vary across states and territories and across the more than five hundred local governments that provide planning consent authority.”

With Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, standing beside him at the White House, the US President confirmed that Nippon Steel will drop its US$ 14.9 billion bid to acquire US Steel, and that it would instead “invest heavily” in the company, without taking a majority stake. In his last days as President, Joe Biden had blocked the proposed takeover on national security grounds and that domestic ownership was important, with the Japanese calling his decision “incomprehensible”. Trump – who mistakenly referred to the firm as “Nissan” – said he would meet Nippon’s head next week to “mediate and arbitrate” the deal.  In the US, Japanese companies are the largest job creators in ten states and the second largest in another six – and the country.

The French Ministry of Economy has amended its earlier 2026 projected public debt, at 4.6%, now expecting a marginal increase to see it remain just under its 5.0% threshold. Last October, a financial plan, indicating its commitment to reduce the public debt to under 2.8% was submitted  to the EC. Late last week, the French Parliament approved the 2025 state budget in a final vote in the Senate; it included austerity measures, worth US$ 52 billion, in a bid to reduce the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025, down from the 6.0% deficit expected for 2024. The Ministry of Economy stressed that achieving this target is “essential”, noting that budget implementation will be closely monitored to ensure compliance with ministerial allocations and to take any necessary corrective measures. Additionally, the French government has revised this year’s economic growth forecast down 0.2%, to 0.9%.

Last year, Spain received a record ninety-four million visitors and is fast catching up with France’s latest one hundred million total, which makes it the world’s biggest foreign tourist hub. Spain’s surprising recent tourism spurt has also helped the national economy, (the eurozone’s fourth biggest), post the highest growth in 2024, at 3.2%, compared to Germany, France and Italy with a 0.2% contraction, 1.1% and 0.5% growth. UK’s figure was 0.9%. No wonder that ‘The Economist’ has ranked Spain as the world’s best performing economy, with the country responsible for 40% of eurozone growth last year. It is truly amazing to see Spain bounce back from the pandemic when its GDP shrank by 11% in one year. It is estimated that public spending has accounted for about 50% of Spain’s recent growth and that the modernisation process is being aided by post-pandemic recovery funds from the EU’s Next Generation programme. Spain is due to receive up to US$ 169.0 billion by 2026, making it the biggest recipient of these funds, alongside Italy. Spain is investing the money in the national rail system, low-emissions zones in towns and cities, as well as in the electric vehicle industry and subsidies for small businesses. The rise in tourism has been a major boost but other factors – including financial services, technology, and investment – have played their part.

The Spanish flea in the ointment is that the country continues to have the highest jobless rate in the EU, being almost double the bloc’s average. However, the pendulum may have begun to swing, with Q4 showing the rate fall to 10.6% – its lowest level since 2008 – whilst the number of people in employment, now stands at twenty-two million, a record high. A labour reform, encouraging job stability, is seen as a key reason for this. However, other obstacles are in the way with a possible triple whammy of Spain’s mega public debt, which is higher than the country’s annual economic output,  a mushrooming housing crisis across the nation, (with millions struggling to find affordable accommodation), and the top-heavy reliance on tourism, allied with a growing backlash from disenchanted nationals.

Critics argue that the Trump administration’s decision, to slash billions of dollars from overheads in grants for biomedical research, will stifle scientific advancements. The National Institute of Health confirmed it would cut grants for “indirect costs” related to research – such as buildings, utilities and equipment – and that “as many funds as possible go towards direct scientific research costs rather than administrative overhead.” It is hoped that the agency’s estimate that the cuts – which came into effect last Monday – would save US$ 4.0 billion, with the agency posting that it would impose a 15% cap, (half of the current average rate of 30%), the rates grant pay for indirect research. As leader of Doge, (the Department of Government Efficiency), Elon Musk has claimed that some universities were spending above that 30%, commenting “can you believe that universities, with tens of billions in endowments, were siphoning off 60% of research award money for ‘overhead’? What a rip-off!”

In January, US posted lower growth in the month, despite the unemployment rate dipping 0.1% to 4.0%, indicating a solid, if more subdued, economy with employers adding 143k jobs last month. The news comes in the same month that Donald Trump returned to a major shake-up, including cuts to government spending and the federal workforce, mass migrant deportations and higher tariffs on many goods coming into the US. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, also said the bank’s concerns about the job market had subsided.

Mainly because of higher egg, (15% higher because of avian flu), and energy prices, along with car insurance, airfare, medicine and other basics, January US inflation, pushed up to 3.0% –  its highest rate for six months, with the news coming a week after the US central bank maintained rates, pointing to  economic uncertainty. Prices for clothing, by contrast, declined, while rents and other housing related costs increased 4.4% over the last year, marking the smallest twelve month increase since January 2022. The Fed has still not come to grips with putting inflation back into its box and now has to consider what impact other factors, such as a squeeze on labour supply growth, will have in it trying to hit their long-held 2.0% target.

President Donald Trump has said he will announce a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US, a move that will have the biggest impact in Canada, commenting that “any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25% tariff.”  Canada and Mexico are two of the US’s biggest steel trading partners, and Canada is the biggest supplier of aluminium metal into the US. In another announcement later in the week, he indicated that there will be reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tax imports from the US, commenting “if they charge us, we charge them.” During his first term,  (2016 – 2020), Trump put tariffs of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminium imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU.; within a year, an agreement with his two nearest neighbours saw tariffs ended, although the EU import taxes remained in place until 2021. China has also imposed export controls on twenty-five rare metals, some of which are key components for many electrical products and military equipment. This move by China is because of the US preventing Chinese access to semiconductor chips and many other AI developments.

There has been a lot of interest in potential buyers for The Original Factory Shop, including Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group and Poundstretcher, which is owned by the investment group Fortress. The latest is that Modella Capital, the owner of Hobbycraft, is the inside runner to buy TOFS, after discussions with Baaj Capital broke down; Modella has also been in the mix to acquire WH Smith’s high street stores. The private equity firm, Duke Street, has owned the independent discount retail chain, with some one hundred and eighty stores in the UK, since 2007. Established in 1969, TOFS sells beauty brands such as L’Oréal, the sportswear brand Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker.

In true British style, Trade minister Douglas Alexander said the UK would not have “a knee-jerk reaction” but “a cool and clear-headed” response to Donald Trump’s latest renewal of steel and aluminium tariffs, at 25%, set to start on 12 March. The US is the world’s largest importer of steel, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico, as its top three suppliers, and Trump sees imposing tariffs, which will be paid by companies bringing the metal into the US, as a way of shifting away from foreign imports and boosting domestic steel production. The US is the third largest customer for UK steel, with exports totalling US$ 483 million, behind Ireland (US$ 610 million) and The Netherlands (US$ 576 million), but ahead of Sweden (US$ 476 million) and Belgium (US$ 456 million). With the US accounting for about 10% of UK’s steel market, probably the main concern would be the possibility of other steel-making countries, which refuse to trade with the US, may start dumping their excess steel in the UK. In a MAGA bid, it seems that the US president is keen to ‘level the trade playing field’ and aiming at countries and trading blocs, such as the EU, which export more to the US than they import.

Research consultancy, Indeed, has listed the ten most in-demand jobs in the UK, with the highest being for paediatricians, as vacancies increased 91% and offering a salary of around US$ 131k. Last year, listings for teachers surged 245%, with positions offering US$ 48.6k. Meanwhile, property solicitor roles have jumped by 111%, coming with an average salary of US$ 65.4k. Doctors were the seventh most in-demand profession, with job postings rising by 95%, followed by AI engineers also increasing by 86%.

Despite the UK economy being in almost negative territory, website Hitched indicates that last year, the average cost of a wedding rose 11.0% to US$ 29k, with more than 67% of couples saying their families helped pay for their weddings; only 10.0% took out loans or got new credit cards to cover costs. The knock-on effect of inflation pushed 61% of couples to increase their budgets at least once. Two of the major costs were the venue, at US$ 11k, and catering – US$ 8k.

Only a politician could answer the following question, when the Prime Minister was asked about Rachel Reeves’ CV. He replied that she has “dealt with any issues that arise”, and when asked in an interview whether he was “comfortable that she exaggerated her relevant experience”,

he replied the issues were from “many years ago” but that he and the chancellor “get up every day to… make sure that the economy in our country, which was badly damaged under the last government, is revived and we have growth, and that is felt in the pockets of working people across the country”. Rachel Reeves has frequently cited her time at the Bank of England as part of the reason that voters can trust her with the public finances and has repeatedly claimed to have spent up to 10 years there. The Chancellor left the financial institution nine months earlier than she stated in her LinkedIn profile. This means she spent five and a half years working at the bank – including nearly a year studying – despite publicly claiming to have spent a decade there. She joined HBOS in 2006 and initially claimed that she worked there as an economist but changed her profile to Retail Banking, with The Times reporting that er actual role was “running a customer relations department dealing with complaints and mortgage retention”.

In a cry for help, Chancellor Rachel Reeves met some of the leaders of UK’s high street banks, including Georges Elhedery, Debbie Crosbie, Charlie Nunn, Paul Thwaite, (of HSBC, Nationwide, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest) plus senior representatives of Barclays and Santander UK. The main item on the agenda was to discuss Labour’s financial services growth strategy – one of the pillars of the wider industrial strategy being drawn up by ministers. She will be asking for fresh ideas from them on how best to kick start the faltering economy. The Chancellor has had so much negative press from her October budget and has been trying to kickstart economic growth since then. More bad news came her way recently, with the BoE downgrading the country’s growth forecast and there are some who think it is inevitable that she will have to raise taxes sometime this year.

With a Q4 GDP growth of 0.1%, the UK economy will not go into a technical recession until mid-year, at the earliest; a technical recession occurs following two consecutive quarters of ‘negative growth’. It appears that the Q4 ‘improvement’ only arose because of growth in Christmas spending and manufacturing during December, and follows a contraction of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, last year the economy grew by 0.9%. There is no doubt that the dynamic duo of Starmer and Reeves has scored at least two own goals in their attempt to grow the economy. The first was after trash talking the economy ahead of its October budget and the second by hikes to employer National Insurance contributions from April 2025 that have impacted investment, forced job cuts, and hit pay rises. The fact is that the UK economy is in a rut and faces potential obstacles in the coming months, including the possibility of Trump tariffs, slowing growth forecast, the distinct possibility of rising inflation and the population facing water, energy and council tax rising sharply in April. Don’t Worry, Be Happy!

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Where Do You Go To My Lovely?

Posted on February 7, 2025 by howesdubai

Where Do You Go To My Lovely?                                           07 February 2025

In 2024, the Dubai luxury residential market saw one extra US$ 10 million + home sold, on the year, to a total of four hundred and thirty-five; 35.2% of this total, (equating to one hundred and fifty-three), was sold in Q4 – the highest quarterly figure on record. The number would have been greater but for the lack of inventory available in this sector – since mid 2023, supply has steadily deceased, but there is a lot now being built up but will not be hitting the market until 2027, at the earliest. Overall, villa prices last year rose by 19.1%, whilst those in the ultra-luxury sector were 20.2% higher – villas accounted for 68.5% of all luxury deals in 2024. Knight Frank estimates that ultra luxury prices will jump at least another 5% this year, in the emirate, after surging about 67% since 2021. Prices across the whole of Dubai’s booming property market are all moderating, after surging post-Covid, but will still be in double-digit territory. 52% of all luxury sales occurred in the off-plan market, with the top three developers — Omniyat, Nakheel and Emaar Properties — accounting for a combined 46% of these transactions. The leading location continued to be Palm Jumeirah, with one hundred and twenty sales – 29.0% the total – and valued at US$ 2.3 billion, equating to 32.5% of the total value. They were followed by Palm Jebel Ali, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, District One and Dubai Hills Estate.                              

Globally, prime residential prices continue to slow but no guesses which location is bucking the trend. Dubai’s market is the outlier. Even after surging price rises, Dubai is still one of the cheapest cities in the world, compared to the likes of New York and London where the price per sq ft is a third of the US city and a fifth of the latter. Even though supply is still well short of demand, and prime locations are becoming rarer, buyers are now pushing back on price hikes, after the years of increases.

Refine Development Management confirmed this week that it will launch an investment and development arm, with a project pipeline of US$ 12 billion. Recently, the Dubai-based company unveiled a 20k sq ft sales gallery in Business Bay. In H1, it plans to introduce high-end residential projects, valued at US$ 177 million, in Meydan, a US$ 2.18 billion mixed-use luxury development in Safa Park and branded residences, worth US$ 245 million, on SZR. In H2, SZR will be the location of its launch of a one hundred-storey twin-tower lifestyle development.

A study, undertaken by Arada, shows that the country’s residential wellness real estate market alone will grow, seven times, over the next three years from its current 2024 level of US$ 1.37 billion to a staggering US$ 8.40 billion by the end of 2027. It seems that all the major developers – including Emaar, Aldar, Damac, Danube Properties, Nakheel, Sobha, Meraas, Azizi and Samana Development – have been jumping on the wellness bandwagon and this segment of the market is not only in the domain of the ultra-wealthy but can also include middle-income families, looking for homes that offer a healthier lifestyle, without “breaking the bank”. Rosa Piro, Arada’s senior business development director, commented that the rise of wellness-focused residential projects, particularly in Dubai, is already evident, with supply expected to cross 16k units by 2030, adding that wellness real estate is set to be the next booming property asset class in the UAE.

This week witnessed a ground-breaking ceremony for a tower housing its own private island. Located in Jumeirah Village Circle, ‘I’sola Bella’ by MAK Developers, has been inspired by an Italian island of the same name. Sudais Moti, COO and Co-founder of MAK Developers, commented that “we’re creating a space where every day feels like a vacation, where residents wake up to an island retreat, without leaving home.” Among its forty-five world-class amenities – more than any tower in JVC has ever offered – are an infinity sky pool to a real sand beach, a private cigar lounge, a gaming room and a digital library, along with an exclusive island pool in the heart of the tower. It is reported that ‘I’sola Bella’ is already nearly sold out.

Plots in Satwa – a busy residential and commercial district in Dubai and adjoining Sheikh Zayed Road – are becoming available for freehold and no doubt it will prove a healthy investment for those interested. One of the older – and more well-known – suburbs in Dubai, Satwa is located adjacent to prime locations such as the Trade Centre Roundabout and would be ripe for a wider redevelopment. Rates would also be much lower than say Downtown or Dubai Marina.

With the UAE aiming for forty million hotel guests by 2030, it is obvious that more hotels are required, many of which will not be necessarily high-end. Little wonder then that Accor’s non-luxury brands will help fill the gap, with its range of non-luxury brands – Pullman, Ibis, and Novotel. The French hospitality giant, the world’s sixth-largest hospitality group, sees the UAE as its main regional revenue driver across the hospitality sector, with its other subsidiaries including Ibis, Mercure, Sofitel, and Fairmont Hotels and Resorts; it seems that it will be focussing its efforts in the ‘premium economy’, extended-stay residences, and other serviced apartment segments to fuel regional growth. Duncan O’Rourke, CEO of ME, Africa and Asia-Pacific, noted that “investor interest in the UAE remains strong – one of the noticeable trends is the rising demand for extended-stay residences, such as Pullman Living and other serviced apartments.” Accor has three hundred and sixty-five hotels (89.6k keys) in the MEA region, with fourteen new properties to open in 2025. In the UAE, its twenty-two brands have eighty-six hotels, with 24.5k rooms, with twelve more hotels (3.1k rooms) in the pipeline.

Emaar Properties has posted that Dubai Fountain will be closed, from this May, to undergo a comprehensive five-month renovation to offer improved choreography and an enhanced lighting and sound system. The fountain is one of Dubai’s most popular attractions, with visitor numbers in the millions, who come to see its synchronised water, music, and light performances. In true Emaar style, the developer posted that it will be “even more spectacular” upon its return, adding that the upgrades will create a “more immersive show”.

A new company has been formed, between  MIG Holding and a Dubai World entity, and located in National Industries Park, which will become the largest precast concrete factory in the ME, spanning 2.2 million sq ft. ‘Safetech’, with an annual production capacity of more than 700k cu mt, will revolutionise the UAE’s construction industry, by providing advanced precast concrete solutions designed to elevate both the quality and efficiency of project delivery, particularly in light of the sector’s rapid expansion. It is estimated that the construction sector contributes nearly 12% to the country’s GDP and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.26% until 2030.

According to the 2024 Travel & Tourism Development Index, by the World Economic Forum, the UAE ranked first in the region and advanced seven places, on the year, to eighteenth globally, whilst being the only ME country in the top ten for international tourism revenue. Over the past few years, it has become an all-year-round destination, with winter emerging as the peak season. The country’s Tourism Strategy 2031 has the twin aims of attracting US$ 27.25 billion in tourism investments, whilst welcoming forty million hotel guests; the WEF report forecasts that, by 2033, the country will be welcoming 45.5 million international visitors. Last year, visitor numbers were 15.5% higher at 29.2 million.

Last year, the UAE’s foreign trade soared to an unprecedented US$ 817.4 billion, (AED 3.0 trillion). HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted that “the UAE’s foreign trade has reached a historic milestone, touching AED 3.0 trillion for the first time by the end of 2024. My brother, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, has spent years strengthening economic ties with nations worldwide… Today, we see the results. While global trade grew by just 2% in 2024, the UAE’s foreign trade expanded at seven times that rate, achieving an impressive 14.6% growth.” He also commented on the impact of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, with several countries, which have been added over the past two years, noting that “the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, led by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, added US$ 36.79 billion to the country’s non-oil trade with partner nations – 42% higher on the year. He added that, in 2021, the government set a goal of reaching AED 4 trillion, (AED 1.09 trillion) in annual foreign trade by 2031, and by the end of last year it had already achieved 75% of that figure, with the target expected to be reached well before the target date.

Last November, Sirocco, a JV between Heineken and Dubai Maritime Mercantile International, announced a plan to build the Gulf’s first major commercial brewery in Dubai, scheduled to open by the end of 2027. This week, there is a possibility that Diageo, which late last year moved its head office from Beirut to Dubai, could open a local alcohol production facility; among its many brands are Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Baileys and Smirnoff. Antoinette Drumm, MD of Diageo Mena, commented that “we are in the process of doing our five-year strategic plan, and as part of that, we are looking at all angles—whether it will be distilleries, breweries, etc. We are not saying ‘no’ because we are in the process of building our plan.” The company also produces non-alcoholic beverages, and she commented “We are doing (production) under licence agreement in other parts of Mena. I would say it is not if but when (to start local production).”

Last year, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise registered an 8.4% revenue hike to US$ 1.42 billion, as profit grew 36.2% to US$ 477 million, with operating profit, before exceptional items, reaching US$ 711 million, 19.4% higher on the year. The aircraft leasing company, which serves one hundred and twenty airlines across sixty-five countries, having acquired eighty-three owned and managed aircraft and divested sixty-eight planes, saw its fleet grow to three hundred and twenty-nine owned, one hundred and ten managed and sixty-seven committed aircraft as at 31 December. Last month, the aircraft lessor announced it had signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Nordic Aviation Capital, with a fleet of two hundred and fifty-two owned and committed assets on lease to about sixty airline customers in approximately forty countries, as of September 2024. 

Dubai-based developer Damac is going ahead with ‘The Delmore’, an ultra-luxury residential project in Miami, on a plot that was bought in 2022 for US$ 120 million. The twelve-storey oceanfront condominium, located at the Town of Surfside, will have four and five-bedroom units, with prices starting at US$ 15 million; all apartments will have their own private elevator entry foyers. Its location, adjacent to Indian Creek and minutes from Bal Harbour, completes the coveted ‘Billionaire’s Triangle’, one of Miami’s most revered destinations. The Damac project, encompassing two acres, will be the firm’s second residential project in the Miami area and ‘one of the firm’s select few in the US’. Handover is slated for 2029.

Insurancebrokers were previously allowed to collect premiums for general insurance (excluding life, marine, and health) before remitting them to the insurer but, as from 15 February, insurance customers in the UAE will have to make direct payments to insurers instead of going through brokers. This move will be a double whammy benefit for policyholders, as their payments will go directly to the insurer, reducing any risk of delays or mismanagement, and will also lead to immediate policy issuance and faster claims processing; claim payouts and premium refunds must be made directly from insurers to clients. Brokers will also benefit from not having to handle premium collections, receiving commission within ten days and being able to focus on advisory and client service, rather than administrative payment management. However, the new regulations prohibit brokers from offering discounts by reducing their commission, which previously created an uneven playing field and encouraged price-driven competition over value-driven service. No longer can brokers enter into financial arrangements with non-insurance entities and paying them commissions for referring business.

In 2024, Dubai South welcomed 11.4% new companies, (four hundred and fifteen), bringing the total number of operating companies to 4.04k, whilst retaining 94% of existing companies. There was also an annual 300% increase in office space leased, to 500k sq ft. Furthermore, The Pulse Beachfront phase 1, comprising two hundred units, was completed, (with another five hundred due this year). During the year, South Living was launched and the fact that it sold out indicates the strength of Dubai realty, with BT Properties, Asia’s largest private property developer, agreeing to develop a gated master community within Dubai South’s Golf District. GEMS Founders School also welcomed its first five hundred students. Other significant events witnessed in the Logistics District at Dubai South were the inauguration of a state-of-the-art FedEx air and ground regional hub, the opening of Boston Scientific’s regional distribution centre at Hellmann Calipar Healthcare Logistics’ facility, and the groundbreaking of a new facility by dnata.

Between 19 February and 09 March, the ICC Champions Trophy, involving eight of the best cricketing nations, will take place. Despite Pakistan being the official host, the tournament will follow a hybrid model, after India refused to travel to Pakistan due to security concerns. After extensive discussions, the Pakistan Cricket Board has only just agreed to hold all of India’s matches and one semifinal in Dubai. Now the emirate is fast preparing for a last-minute surge in flight and hotel bookings. The matches to be played at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium are:

  • 20 Feb – Bangladesh v India
  • 23 Feb – Pakistan v India
  • 02 Mar – New Zealand v India
  • 04 Mar – Semi-final 1*
  • 09 Mar – Final – Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore**
  • All matches start at 13.00 Dubai time
  • *Semi-final 1 will involve India if they qualify
  • ** If India qualify for the final it will be played at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium

With bookings gradually increasing, the real surge is expected in the final two weeks before the match, and if left too late travellers will undoubtedly find limited availability and soaring prices. with them surging by as much as 50% – and even more for last minute bookings. This sudden change of plan has been a godsend for the local travel and hospitality sectors, with all ranges of hotels, from budget to seven star, seeing increased business and rising occupancy levels, as well as heightened demand for short-term lets and Airbnb.

With the aim of enhancing the efficiency and speed of trade operations across Dubai’s supply chain and logistics sectors, Dubai Trade has amended its Digital Delivery Order (DDO) platform to Trade+. The platform eases the digital exchange of cargo release documents between shipping lines, freight forwarders, consignees and other trade stakeholders, resulting in a faster and more efficient cargo release process. It is estimated that this Trade+ service, on the Dubai Trade Single Window for Trade and Logistics, will result in an average 90% reduction in transaction times, process higher trade volumes and expedite cross-border trade. Last year Trade+, which is 100% paperless, saved an estimated 2.36 million documents from being printed.

A UAE court has ruled in favour of the Dubai investment firm Shuaa in a dispute brought against the company by a former top executive. Last August, the investment firm was advised by the Dubai Labour Court of First Instance that it had received a lawsuit filed by the former executive. In a statement, Shuaa noted that “we are pleased to inform our shareholders that the Court has issued a judgement in favour of the company. The company… reaffirms its commitment to assessing all available legal options to safeguard its rights and those of its shareholders.”

With the twin aims of helping taxpayers to reduce their tax burden and encourage them to fulfil their tax obligations, the Federal Tax Authority has called on registrants who have yet to update their tax records to take advantage of the UAE Cabinet’s decision to grant a grace period, relieving them from administrative penalties. The Cabinet decision allows registrants to update information held in their tax records during the period from 01 January 2024 to 31 March 2025, without incurring the administrative penalties for failure to inform the FTA of any instance that may require amendments or updates to their tax records. If such a penalty had been imposed in the past, it will be reversed. The initial Cabinet Decision No. 74 of 2023 indicated that the registrant shall notify the FTA, within twenty business days, of any change to its data kept with the FTA.

Under the Medcare brand, the Aster DM Healthcare Group’s latest US$ 16 million investment plans point to a further ten ‘Medcare Medical Centres’ in Dubai and Sharjah over the next two years; there are already five multi-speciality hospitals and twenty-five medical centres. This will result in a 21.4% increase in payroll numbers, to eight hundred and fifty, in the medical centres. The Medcare Group overall has a 2.8k strong workforce, which includes five hundred and thirty-one doctors and 2.3k other ancillary service professionals.

At the height of its troubles in 2022, Union Properties had legacy debts of US$ 400 million which had been cut by 60.9% by the end of December 2024 to US$ 157 million which is due to move lower by US$ 41 million, to US$ 116 million, by the end of Q1. The Dubai developer commented that it “was able to reduce the margin on the three-month EIBOR from 3.25% to 2.75%, in light of growing trust among banks.” Having restructured its debt, Union Properties was able to cut its financing costs by 72.0% to US$ 9 million last year, providing a positive boost, both for its liquidity and profitability.

In 2024, TECOM Group PJSC registered an 11% hike in annual revenue to US$ 654 million, resulting in a 14% rise in net profit to US$ 327 million; this improvement was driven by several factors such as its targeted portfolio expansion, increased operational efficiencies, its robust occupancy level of 94% and a 92% retention rates. The fair value of the Group’s investment properties’ portfolio, conducted by CBRE, ascertained a fair value of US$ 7.63 billion, at year end, representing an annual 11% increase in like-for-like and an increase of 22%, including new acquisitions during the year. The Board has proposed an H2 dividend payment of US$ 109 million (equating to US$ 0.022 per share), subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming AGM on 10 March, and in line with the dividend policy valid through H1. Malek Al Malek, Chairman of TECOM Group said that “the US$ 736 million, (AED 2.70 billion), of investments announced through 2024 will further expand the Group’s portfolio, enabling its continued sustainable growth and reinforcing its role as a strategic driver in Dubai’s business sector.”

Emirates Islamic posted an annual 2024 46.0% rise to a record profit before tax of US$ 845 million, with net profit 32.0% higher at US$ 763 million. Total income rose 13.0% to US$ 1.47 billion, as expenses dipped 7%, on the year, and impairment allowances were 28% lower, driven by improvement in credit quality. Increases were noted for total assets, customer financing and customer deposits – by 27% to US$ 302 million, by 31% to US$ 19.35 billion and 25% to US$ 20.98 billion. Non-performing financing ratio improved to 4.4%, with strong coverage ratio at 142%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 03 February forty-six points, (0.3%), lower the previous week, gained fifty-nine points (1.1%), to close the trading week on 5,239 points by Friday 07 February 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.19 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 3.72 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.70, US$ 5.68, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.40 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.78, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.37. On 07 February, trading was at one hundred and thirty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and one million dollars, compared to one hundred and ninety-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-three million dollars on 31 January.

By Friday, 07 February 2025, Brent, US$ 4.06 lower (5.0%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 2.12 (2.8%) to close on US$ 74.71. Gold, US$ 247 (9.4%) higher the previous four weeks, gained US$ 69 (2.4%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,901 on 31 January 2025.  Not long to go before it hits the US$ 3k mark!

Since the transition to lower carbon energy was moving slower than expected, Norwegian energy giant Equinor is halving investment in renewable energy, over the next two years, while increasing oil and gas production. Chief executive, Anders Opedal, also added that costs had increased, and customers were reluctant to commit to long term contracts, as well as warning that gas prices could rise next winter, as European gas storage levels were lower now than this time last year. Equinor will halve its investments in renewables to US$ 5 billion, as “we don’t see the necessary profitability in the future,” and it will also drop a target to spend half of its fixed assets budget on renewables, and low carbon products, by 2030. Another blow for environmentalists was the chief executive saying he was confident that Rosebank – a giant new oil field in the North Sea – would go ahead, (despite a Scottish court ruling that consent had been granted unlawfully), and will be increasing oil and gas production by 10% over the next two years.

The US multinational, Estée Lauder, is planning to cut its payroll by some 7k of its 62k workforce, with the need to save around US$ 1 billion, as it manages “the risk of recession… including the imposition of tariffs and sanctions”.  The beauty firm – with brands such as Clinique, MAC, Jo Malone, Bobbi Brown, Aveda and Tom Ford – posted a Q4 loss of US$ 590 million, as customers spent less in China and Korea. It had already started a restructuring program to tackle its flagging performance, but circumstances may have worsened, with the threat of Trump sanctions hanging over many of their one hundred and fifty market countries. Having cited inflation being one of the main factors behind its rising costs, it announced that “we are significantly transforming our operating model to be leaner, faster, and more agile.”

Estée Lauder is one of many companies warning of the impact a tit-for-tat tariff war could have on their financials. For example, drinks giant, Diageo, which makes Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Baileys and Smirnoff, has warned that tariffs on Mexico and Canada – if they go ahead – “could very well” impact its business. Its chief executive, Debra Crew, commented that it was taking “a number of actions to mitigate the impact and disruption to our business that tariffs may cause”.

Founded in 2013, and in the past three years having seen three different owners, online fashion boutique Trouva, has called a halt to trading, while it explores its fourth sale. The company was acquired by Project J last year, (and is owned by that company alongside Fy!, a home and living marketplace), having previously been owned by Made.com, Next, and then a vehicle called Re:store. The company offers a platform for independent shops and boutiques that do not have an online presence to sell their products. Jonathan Thomson, co-founder of Project J, commented that “we have decided to focus our efforts on building the Fy! brand and explore the options for a sale of Trouva.”

For the first time in legal history, a Swiss court has charged an entire company and followed through with convicting the company Trafigura and its former COO of bribery, over payments made by the firm to gain access to Angola’s lucrative oil market. It sentenced its UK COO to thirty-two months in jail and fined the company US$ 148 million; both will appeal the decision. The court had heard that the company had set up a complex payment web, through which an official with Angola’s state oil company was paid almost US$ 5 million between 2009 and 2011. During that time, Angola signed contracts with Trafigura, worth almost US$ 144 million. However, the company was adamant that its own compliance and anti-corruption measures had been independently assessed and found to be excellent, but that was just a sham because there was an intricate structure set up to evade those measures in reality. There will be a few commodity brokers, based not only in Geneva, but worldwide, who will be a little concerned that it now seems Swiss prosecutors have raised the ante.

Volkswagen’s unit, Skoda Auto Volkswagen India, has sued authorities to quash an “impossibly enormous” tax demand of US$ 1.4 billion, arguing that it is contradictory to New Delhi’s import taxation rules for car parts, it will hamper the company’s business plans and that it puts at risk itsinvestments of US$ 1.5 billion in the country, and is detrimental to the foreign investment climate. Indian Customs and the Finance Ministry had become concerned that VW were breaking down imports of some VW, Skoda and Audi cars into many individual parts to pay a lower duty. Importing “almost the entire” car, in unassembled condition, will attract a tax of up to 35% on CKDs (completely knocked down units); classification of them as “individual parts”, coming in separate shipments, will be taxed between 5% – 15%. VW reckons that they have kept authorities aware of its “part-by-part import” model and received clarifications in its support in 2011. If the German carmaker were to lose the case, in a country, where it is a very small player, it could have to pay up to US$ 2.8 billion, which is higher than its total 2024 revenue of US$ 2.19 billion; its net profit came in at just US$ 11 million.

Another ‘victim’ of Indian procrastination is Skoda Auto Volkswagen India, facing a US$ 1.4 billion fine from the Indian tax authorities. This week, it seems that South Korean car maker Kia Motors is in the authority’s sights which has sent out a four hundred and thirty-two page confidential notice, accusing the company of evading millions of dollars in taxes. Kia has been importing the components for its Carnival car model in separate lots, rather than as a single shipment, a move that attracts significantly lower customs duties. If the claim is valid, it could be paying a fine of US$ 155 million. Its factory is in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and has sold more than a million cars in the country since its launch in 2019. The increase in similar tax cases, and the apparent lack of urgency in settling them, will surely have a negative impact on future foreign investment. Indeed, net foreign direct investment halved in 2024, and it seems that the government will have to address issues such as the tax dispute resolution process and remove a lot of red tape if it does wish not to lose further international investment funds.

Driven by stable progress in opening up to foreign investors, along with a more diversified investor base, China’s bond market rose 11.7%, to US$ 10.94 trillion, over the year; this was split between the interbank market, accounting for US$ 9.71 trillion, (88.88%) of the market, and the exchange market US$ 1.23 trillion – 11.12%. In 2024, the volume of treasury bonds amounted to US$ 1.71 trillion, with the volume of local government bonds reaching US$ 1.35 trillion. Indicators are that foreign institutional holdings are slowly making a mark, now accounting for up 2.4% of the country’s market holdings, at US$ 579 billion. The report showed that China’s bond market is becoming more stable and organised, with the balance of foreign institutional holdings in the market reaching US$ 579 billion.

Having previously indicated that it had been unable to find a new owner for Mosaic’s chains, Katies and Rivers, (and its other brands Rockmans, Crossroads, Autograph, W Lane and BeMe), would be wound down. KPMG posted that it will also close all of Millers and Noni B’s remaining two hundred and fifty-two stores, with the loss of 1.6k jobs, of which 0.65k had already been announced, with the closure of Rivers this month. Mosaic collapsed in 2024, with 0.25k people in head office and 2.5k workers across six hundred and fifty-one stores, in Australia and New Zealand, losing their jobs. Mosaic’s collapse, last October, left creditors being owed US$ 155 million, including US$ 17 million to factories in Bangladesh which has left thousands of jobs there in jeopardy.

Australia’s Fair Work Ombudsman has directed Hamilton Island Enterprises to pay back US$ 30 million in wages to 2.15k current and former salaried employees, who were not paid correctly between December 2014 and the end of 2022. HIE, the operator of Queensland’s luxury Hamilton Island resort, manages various businesses on the island, including accommodation, restaurants, the marina, airport, utilities and emergency services. The company has signed an enforceable undertaking agreement and, to date, has back-paid staff US$ 18 million. It is reported that certain entitlements, such as overtime rates, weekend and public holiday penalties, broken-shift allowances and annual leave loading had been underpaid by HIE.  Although one person was repaid US$ 74k, the average “payback” was US$ 5k, with a further US$ 136k owed to thirty-two employees, who investigators are yet to reach, remains outstanding. The company has been ordered to:

  • implement a range of workplace changes, including an independent audit of salaried workers
    • appoint a workplace laws compliance officer
      • have a dedicated hotline and email employees, who investigators are yet to reach, remains outstanding
        • make a contrition payment of US$ 467k

There is no doubt that unskilled workers, young employees and those on temporary visas, not only in North Queensland or Australia, but in many global holiday destinations, are particularly vulnerable to underpayment, making it difficult for workers to challenge unfair conditions. The Fair Work Ombudsman noted that the “problem is endemic”, with University of Sydney Associate Professor, John Mikler, noting that wage theft is a problem throughout Australia.

Citing security concerns, Australia has become the first G20 nation to ban DeepSeek from all government devices and systems; the arrival of the Chinese chatbot last month was an eye opener in that it matched the performance level of US rivals, while claiming it had a much lower training cost. The result spooked global markets, with billions being written off share values of tech stocks tied to AI. The Albanese government has insisted the ban is due to the “unacceptable risk” it poses to national security, and not because it originated from China. Although all government entities are required to “prevent the use or installation of DeepSeek products, applications and web services”, as well as remove any previously installed, on any government system or device, it is unclear whether this edict covers the likes of educational facilities, public libraries etc. The Australian approach is in contrast to that of President Donald Trump who described it as a “wake up call” for the US but said overall it could be a positive development, if it lowered AI costs.

It would be a surprise if the Reserve Bank of Australia were not to lower interest rates later this month, as core inflation has declined again, dipping 0.4%, to 3.2% in Q4, below its forecasts. Inflation is lower because price rises in key items in the ‘Australian Bureau Statistics basket’ have reduced. Examples include Q4 rental price increases having nudged 0.3% lower to 6.4%, healthcare by 0.8% to 4.0%, and insurance/financial services by 0.8% to 5.4%. Two conundrua, facing the RBA decision, are the unemployment rate which, at 4.0%, could be seen as too low, (on the basis that the more people employed, the greater the risk of increased demand in the economy, which can drive up prices),  and the weak Aussie dollar, at 0.623 – both are factors that could possibly push a delay in further rate cuts this month.

At the start of the week, the Indian rupee continued its recent dismal run and slumped to a new low against the US dollar, at 87.18, after analysing the impact of Donaldonics and his tariffs. King Dollar will probably be dominant throughout the month – good news at least for Indian expats remitting money home.  Whether the Reserve Bank of India is able to change tack and start supporting the rupee is debateable. However, today, 07 February, the RBI cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to 6.25%, for the first time in nearly five years, in an attempt to boost the sluggish economy.

On Monday, President Trump signed yet another executive order, this time to take the first step towards setting up a sovereign wealth fund for the United States, which many consider could be used to purchase TikTok. Being Trump, he did add that the fund would soon be “one of the biggest”, even though the US currently runs a budget deficit. During the run up to the election, he had indicated that the fund would be financed by “tariffs and other intelligent things”, and that the SWF would finance “great national endeavours”, including infrastructure projects such as airports, roads as well as medical research. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the fund would be set up within the next twelve months and that the plan was to monetise assets currently owned by the US government “for the American people”. After levying 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, starting last Saturday, on Tuesday the levies were paused for thirty days.

Last October, the UK finally ceded the Chagos Islands, but at the same time retained a ninety-nine-year lease over the UK-US military airbase on the largest island, Diego Garcia. However, following the elections a new prime minister, the colourful Navin Ramgoolam, was voted in and immediately indicated that new conditions had been negotiated meaning the UK’s lease payments would be linked to inflation and frontloaded. The end result would seem that the UK payments would double to US$ 22.57 billion – a claim that the Starmer government said was “inaccurate and misleading”.

The UK government has denied claims made by the prime minister of Mauritius that it faces paying billions more under a renegotiated deal over the future of the Chagos Islands. Whilst Ramgoolam railed against the former agreement, which he said was a “sell-out” for Mauritius, there are some in the UK who are opposed to the deal, describing it as “terrible”, “mad” and “impossible to understand”, and “at a time when there is no money, how can we spend billions of pounds to give something away?”

Two months ago, and blaming the government’s net zero targets, Vauxhall owner Stellantis signalled it would close its Luton van plant and shift manufacturing to Ellesmere Port. This week, yet another blow for the embattled Chancellor of the Exchequer, with AstraZeneca  cancelling plans for a US$ 558 million vaccine manufacturing plant in Liverpool, citing a cut in funding from the government; the pharmaceutical giant is claiming that the investment, announced last year, in the Tories’ spring budget, was dependent on a “mutual agreement” with the Treasury and third parties – it has now been cancelled because Labour ministers have offered less funding than their predecessors. The money would have expanded an existing site in Speke which “will still continue to produce and supply our flu vaccine, for patients in the UK and around the world”. There is no doubt that this is another major blow to Rachel Reeves’s renewed attempts to deliver economic growth.

The EY ITEM Club is the latest influential group to slash its earlier predictions on the UK economy and another potential knockout punch for the Chancellor; it had previously expected 2025 UK GDP growth of 1.5% which has been cut by a third to 1.0%. There will be more bad news over the next two months as, come April, the temperature will heat even further when tax and wage rises will bump up business costs.

Seventeen years ago, NatWest was bailed out by the government, with a US$ 56.11 billion package, and at one time it was 80% owned by the UK government which still maintains its position as the bank’s biggest shareholder – at 8%; however, it is perhaps only a few months before it divests its investment. The bank posted a 26% rise in Q3 profit, and its latest share value indicates that the bank’s market cap has doubled over the year to US$ 43.16 billion. Even after the recent recovery in its valuation, taxpayers will see a loss running to billions of pounds from NatWest’s emergency bailout.

This time of the year is bonus time, with NatWest reportedly raising the “pot” by 26.4% to US$ 555 million. One of the main beneficiaries is expected to be the chief executive, Paul Thwaite; with a salary of US$ 1.5 million, he is in line for a bonus of up to 150% of his pay, as well as stock worth a maximum of 150% of his salary, with a performance share plan (PSP) which could pay him up to three times his basic pay each year. Not a bad return but still some way behind Lloyds Banking Group’s Charlie Nunn and Barclays’ CS Venkatakrishnan – who himself is expected to see his annual pay capped at just over US$ 17 million under a new policy.

Because of the government’s recent scrapping of the EU bonus cap, HSBC Holdings is planning a US$ 19 million remuneration package for its fairly new French CEO Georges Elhedery, ahead of its annual results later in the month. Europe’s biggest lender, with a market cap of US$ 182 billion, is understood to have been consulting leading shareholders on the plans, which will involve halving his fixed pay, offset by more generous maximum variable pay awards. When he was named as Noel Quinn’s successor, last July, his remuneration comprised a base salary of US$ 1.7 million, a US$ 2.1 million fixed pay allowance, a maximum annual bonus opportunity of roughly US$ 3.7 million and a maximum long-term share award of close to US$ 5.6 million; this came to a maximum total of US$ 13.1 million. There is no doubt that he has done well in his first six months as CEO.

Monday saw the global markets in some sort of disarray, as the prospect of a global trade war loomed, following Donald Trump going through with his threat of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Early Far East trading saw Japan’s Nikkei, Australia’s ASX and the Hkex down by 2.9%, 1.8% and 1.1%.  There is no doubt that this president means business and will not pull back from also hitting the EU with tariffs; he has also warned the UK that it “is out of line” on trade with the US and told reporters, “we’ll see what happens”.

For the third time in six months, the Monetary Policy Committee, as widely expected, cut UK interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5% – their lowest level in eighteen months. As usual, any rate move comes with a double whammy – in this case, lower mortgage payments for many homeowners, but also lower returns for savers. The market expects two more rate reductions this year, which it considers will be enough to see the inflation rate eventually reaching the BoE’s 2.0% target. However the BoE was the harbinger of some bad news – by slashing its forecast for economic growth, adding that the UK economy will narrowly miss a formal recession only by the narrowest of margins in the coming months, and downgraded its estimate of the economy’s ability to generate income, and that there will be a further few years of weak economic growth; it actually cut its forecast for this year and the following two. The BoE also said that the economy’s potential growth rate had halved to 0.75%, down from 1.5% this time last year.

And in a further blow to the Chancellor, it said her latest growth plans, unveiled in a speech last week, will add nothing to GDP growth in its forecast horizon. It also mentioned that everyone, (with the possible exception of Chancellor Reeves), already knew that it expects the National Insurance rise to weigh down on activity, in particular by pulling down employment. On top of everything was their concern that Donald Trump’s tariff threats could well pose further problems for the state of the UK economy.

Vertu Motors, which has almost two hundred sites operating in the UK, posted an unexpected profits warning and announced that it was cutting jobs and closing on Sundays, in a bid to reduce costs, amid tough trading and looming budget tax hikes. The UK’s third largest car retailer cited that it had been impacted by steep discounting industry-wide in a bid to meet a government target for sales of new electric vehicles – the so-called ZEV mandate which demands a rising proportion of total sales come from zero-emission vehicles each year; this year it has risen to 28% from 22% in 2024. Stiff penalties are in place for missing this target, which was not achieved in 2024. It also pointed out that budget tax rises, due to take effect in April, will cost a further US$ 12 million.

This week saw the death of the billionaire philanthropist and spiritual leader, Aga Khan, who had been the imam of the Ismali Muslims since 1957. The Aga Khan’s charities ran hundreds of hospitals, educational and cultural projects, largely in the developing world. The prince was also the founder of the Aga Khan Foundation charity and gave his name to bodies including a university in Karachi, and the Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Aga Khan Trust for Culture was key to the restoration of the Humayun’s Tomb site in Delhi. There is an annual Aga Khan Award for Architecture, and he also founded the Nation Media Group, which has become the largest independent media organisation in east and central Africa. To many, he will be remembered for his involvement in horse racing, being a leading owner and breeder, best known for Shergar, which in the early eighties was the most famous and most valuable racehorse in the world.  Two years after winning the Derby at Epsom in 1981, the horse was kidnapped in Ireland and never seen again. To others, it would be his being mentioned in a song, (‘Your name it is heard in high places, You know the Aga Khan, He sent you a racehorse for Christmas And you keep it just for fun’) – Where Do You Go To My Lovely?

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Tradin’ War Stories!

Posted on January 31, 2025 by howesdubai

Tradin’ War Stories!                                                        31 January 2025

Property Monitor indicated that, in 2024, Omniyat Properties consolidated its leading ranking in the position of selling the most apartments, valued at over US$ 10 million, with forty-six transactions, with a total sales value of US$ 801 million. It also dominated ultra-luxury real estate transactions in the key districts of Business Bay/Downtown, and Palm Jumeirah, with a record-breaking total of US$ 801 million in sales across forty-six transactions. The top five developers, (with their share of the market) accounting for 73.9% of the total, were:

Omniyat                      36.8%            

Meraas             12.9%

Select Group               9.7%

AHS Properties           9.4%

Nakheel                       5.1% 

2024 witnessed another record year for the Dubai property market, consolidating its position as a leading global hub for international investors. During the year, it achieved exceptional milestones, registering 217k investments, valued at US$ 143.32 billion, with credible growth rates of 38% and 27% in number and value respectively. In addition, there was a marked 55% jump in new investors to 110k – a clear indicator of the growing popularity of Dubai realty on the world stage. Marwan Ahmed bin Ghalita, DG of Dubai Land Department, noted, “These indicators serve as tangible evidence of the resilience of Dubai’s real estate market, its ability to adapt to global changes, and its success in attracting high-quality investments. The results achieved in 2024 reflect the emirate’s ambitious vision and ongoing efforts to enhance its investment attractiveness under the guidance of our wise leadership, in line with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to position the emirate among the top three urban economies.”

Damac Properties has launched its Riverside Views project, its sixth master development, located at Dubai Investment Park, which will carry two unique features – a floating opera and hydroponic farms. There will be eight uniquely themed clusters – Teal, Azure, Marine, Indigo, Royal, Capri, Sun and Pacific.  Prices for the one- and two-bedroom apartments start at US$ 242k and US$ 387k, with a 70/30 plan available for uptake. Handover is slated for Q2 2028.

2024 was a record year for the Dubai developer, with two major launches – Sun City and Damac Islands. Damac – like other developers – continue to benefit from the unique environment that Dubai realty has offered over the past four years. Damac has confirmed that it will continue to keep the momentum going and will launch further new projects this year.

Meraas, part of Dubai Holding Real Estate, has signed a US$ 272 million contract with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (ME) for its Bluewaters Bay project. The project comprises two residential towers connected by a dynamic podium, offering six hundred and seventy-eight one to four-bedroom apartments and penthouses; completion is slated for Q4 2027. It will host retail and dining outlets, as well as top-tier amenities, like a landscaped promenade, outdoor pool, children’s play area, and barbecue facilities.

This year started, as it ended 2024, with the ultra-market sector in buoyant mood, as an Emirates Hills palace fetching US$ 116 million – the sector’s first high price deal of 2025, as The Marble Palace in Emirates Hills went under the hammer for US$ 116 million – the second highest ever price for a residence in Dubai, after the 2023 Como Residences penthouse sale for US$ 125 million. The Versailles-inspired mansion, that took nearly twelve years to build, was originally listed for US$ 204 million. Encompassing 60k sq ft of interior space, on a 70k sq ft plot, the property has five bedrooms, an indoor and outdoor swimming pool, two domes, a 70k-litre coral reef aquarium, a private substation for power supply, and fortified emergency rooms, along with a garage capable of housing fifteen luxury vehicles. Over US$ 27 million was expensed on Italian stonework alone, with its interiors featuring 70k gold-leaf sheets and an array of rare artifacts.

This week,  Expo City Dubai launched its next off plan project, (consisting of two hundred and eighty one  two bedroom apartments and lofts), ‘remodelling Expo 2020’s country pavilions to create unique homes’ These will form part of the ‘Al Waha’ collection, with prices starting at US$ 466k for the one bedroom apartment and US$ 1.08 million for the two-bedroom lofts; first units will be handed over by the end of 2026. Investors also have the option to purchase entire buildings of ten-twelve homes. The Expo City masterplan, launched in October 2024, estimated that the 3.5 sq km site will house 35k residents and 40k professionals working there. Construction has already started on other residential developments such as the Mangrove, Sky and Sidr Residences.

Last year, Prestige One developments launched a record 1.5k commercial and residential units across Dubai, including premium projects on Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Islands and Mohammed Bin Rashid City. The local real estate developer has plans to nearly double the number of its projects, including Palm Jumeirah, Business Bay, JVC and Dubai Islands, to eleven this year; 2025 will also see the completion and handover of two projects – Vista in Dubai Sports City and The Residence in Jumeirah Village Circle. To date, it has already developed more than three million sq ft of area across Dubai. By the end of the year, it will have a total of twenty-five residential and commercial projects (completed and under development). As it is also expanding into new areas in the GCC and West Africa, it requires extra staff, mainly front-office such as in-house sales, marketing, and customer relations roles, to support its growth.

Betterhomes reported slower rent increases last year, compared to 2023, as an indicator that the sector is stabilising after a whirlwind period post Covid. The agency also noted that following completions of just 27k in 2024, it expects the market to absorb a staggering 163k new housing units this year and next, of which 2025’s total is expected to be around 72.4k –  this is more than the total delivered over the previous four years. Of the units delivered in 2024, the split between apartments, villas and townhouses was 77:6:17. Betterhomes sees rent increases being impacted by an abundant supply of new properties and the implementation of the smart rental index. Most of 2024 completions were seen in areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Mohammed Bin Rashid City and Business Bay, with all three standing out as high-demand hubs for investors and end-users.

The Dubai real estate market is expected to stabilise in 2025, with rent increases slowing down. Industry executives attribute this to an abundant supply of new properties and the implementation of the smart rental index. With more properties than ever entering the market, it is inevitable the increased portfolio will dampen rapid rents. Other brokerages, such as Haus and Haus, see the sector maintaining its demand this year, supported by ambitious infrastructure projects and sustained foreign investment. Of the 9k properties due for handover in Q1, it is estimated that Sobha Hartland, Arjan, and JVC will account for 41% of the total.

The world’s highest residence has been listed for sale at US$ 51 million. The 21k sq ft penthouse, on the one hundred and eighth floor of the Burj Khalifa, is being offered as a shell property, allowing the buyerto customise the interior. The “Sky Palace,” is bound to attract global attention from high-net-worth investors keen to make a mark in Dubai.

In 2024, Dubai’s commercial real estate market registered a record year, with 9.0k transactions, (24% higher on the year), valued at US$ 24.52 billion, 11% higher on the year.

Prior to the expected launch of a commercial rental index, by the Dubai Land Department, reports indicate that landlords in Dubai are increasing rents of commercial properties in prime locations, whilst many tenants of commercial properties are relocating to more affordable areas, with others renegotiating as well as renewing leases early, downsizing office spaces,  shifting to co-working setups, upgrading/modernising properties and securing long-term agreements to lock in current rates.

There is no doubt that there is a marked shortage of prime premium office space driven by a surge in new company registrations and growth in many existing companies. For several years, it has not been unusual to see occupancy rates of 95% or higher – and this despite surging rental rises. Even though there is a planned nine million sq ft of office space to be added in this sector – including Tecom’s Innovation Hub Phase 2, One Za’abeel Tower, DMCC’s Uptown Tower Phase 2, Al Wasl Tower, and DIFC 2.0 – it is highly likely that occupancy levels remain at current highs. An indicator of the robust health of the commercial market can be exemplified by a Business Bay office, (6.35k sq ft), that was rented out last year at US$ 150k, has now seen a mega 81.1% increase this year to US$ 272k.

There are reports that as from 01 February, anyone wanting a bank mortgage will have to pay the 4% DLD fee and the brokers’ 2% fee as part of the total mortgage; Inthe past, this 6% extra was added to the mortgage. It seems that this could be a move to put Dubai in alignment with international standards because the likes of the US and the UK banks do not finance such fees. It is expected that this move will benefit the primary sector because buyers need more money in order to buy secondary market property, especially if they are taking a mortgage; most developers have long-term plans, with added attractive options, in place. This move, orchestrated by the government, could also be seen as a way to turn the heat marginally lower and maintain prices at steadier levels.

According to Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, the emirate’s 2024 record real estate returns was driven by the emirate’s dynamic economy, robust infrastructure, progressive policies, and a world-class investment ecosystem. Last year, the sector posted a record 2.78 million procedures, (up 17% on the year), with transactions topping 226k, valued at US$ 207.36 billion – up 36% and 20% respectively. He noted that “the emirate’s position as an international hub for investment, trade, and innovation, and enhanced its global appeal as a lifestyle and investment destination, all of which have catalysed the real estate market.”

By this April, Dubai will be home to another major retail hub, with the opening of Nad Al Sheba Mall – with the 500k sq ft mixed-use retail destination being the latest addition to Dubai Holding Asset Management’s extensive retail portfolio. It will have one hundred stores and will feature a rooftop gym, swimming pool, padel courts, and more than nine hundred parking spaces. Key tenants include:

  • F&B concepts such as Home Bakery, Parkers, and SALT
  • supermarkets like Spinneys and Union Coop
  • sports and fitness outlets including Go Sport and Fit N Glam
  • children’s entertainment venues like Fun City and Orange Wheels

According to the data gathering portal Statista, UAE retail sales are projected to grow 28.7% over the next four years to an estimated total of US$ 139.1 billion by 2028, driven by favourable demographics, improving macroeconomic conditions, and the rise of omnichannel retailing.

Last year, Dubai Municipality planted a 17% increase in new tress to 216.5k and saw Dubai’s green spaces grow by 3.9 million sq mt, 57%, on the year, to 52 million sq ft, as part of Dubai’s ‘Quality of Life Strategy 2033’. Numbers continue with 5.3 million seedlings planted in the year, 45.0 million seasonal flowers planted, and one hundred and sixty-five beautification projects were completed under the Dubai Green Project, covering residential areas, roads, parks and public spaces. Key greening projects in the year included major intersections and bridges along Sheikh Zayed Road, Al Jamayel Street, Al Khawaneej Street, Al Khail Road, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Latifa Bint Hamdan Street.

Because of the “lack of security and stability”, in Lebanon, Khalaf Al Habtoor has announced that the Habtoor Group would sell all his properties and investments and cancel all investment projects there. As of January 2024, Al-Habtoor Group’s investments in Lebanon were reported to be in the region of US$ 1 billion. Last year, the Group submitted a dispute against Lebanon for reportedly breaching a bilateral treaty with the UAE, resulting in losses exceeding US$ 1.4 billion. The billionaire businessman also recently said he planned on renovating Habtoor Land, an amusement park, and Habtoor Mall, which have been closed since 2000 and 2019, respectively. His latest announcement comes less than a week after he expressed intentions to invest in a “large project” after a government is formed. As to the continuing crisis in the country, he asked “Who bears responsibility for this disaster?… We thought that the state had begun to regain its role and prestige, but the painful reality tells us otherwise.” This week, he reportedly said the “illegal measures continue to this day,” prompting the conglomerate’s international legal team to file to legal action before international courts in London and New York.

2024 passenger numbers at Dubai International jumped 6.1% to a record 91.9 million and exceeded its pre-Covid record of 89.1 million in 2018. At this rate it will easily reach the one hundred million mark by 2026, and were 2025 growth to come in at 8.8%, that feat will be done this year. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid commented that “Dubai is the airport of the world … and a new world in the aviation sector.”  He also noted thatduring the year, DXB posted 300k flight movements, served one hundred and six airline customers and operated flights to two hundred and seventy-two cities in one hundred and seven countries in 2024. The Dubai Ruler added that Dubai Airports over the next ten years will invest US$ 34.88 billion to “restructure the global aviation landscape with Emirati standards”. There was a 20.5% hike in terms of air freight, with DXB handling 2.2 million tonnes of cargo last year

To accommodate future growth in passenger traffic, Dubai is also expanding its second hub, Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC), with a US$ 35.0 billion terminal that will have an annual capacity to handle two hundred and sixty million passengers a year once completed. It currently has capacity of 32.5 million passengers − but handles mainly cargo and some low-cost airlines. Once fully operational, it is fairly likely that DXB will be closed probably in 2032.

More than eight years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. Today, February retail prices have risen, between 4.9% and 5.2%, compared to January prices. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for February is as follows:

Super 98      US$ 0.747 from US$ 0.711     in Feb                up 5.0% YTD US$ 0.768     

Special 95   US$ 0.717 from US$ 0.694      in Feb                up 5.2% YTD US$ 0.023        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.695 from US$ 0.662      in Feb               up 5.2% YTD   US$ 0.033

Diesel           US$ 0.768 from US$ 0.730      in Feb               up 4.9% YTD US$ 0..038

In the first six years since its January 2018 introduction, UAE nationals, constructing new residences, have been able to recoup VAT for expenses incurred in the budling process. This week, the Federal Tax Authority posted that over the six-year period, it had approved 34.9k applications by UAE nationals, equating to a total value of US$ 790 million. Last year there were 7.52k applications, with a total value of US$ 192 million.

Last Friday, Al Ramz Capital LLC was handed a Decision Notice by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, citing it had failed to report suspicious transactions; the DFSA registered member was issued a US$ 25k financial penalty, involving ‘wash trades’ executed via Al Ramz’s online trading platform, where there was no change in the ultimate beneficial ownership. It was claimed that in one trade, there was a 27% temporary spike in share prices on the final day of trading. It appeared that Nasdaq Dubai had flagged the transactions as suspected wash trades to Al Ramz, but the firm did not report the activity to the DFSA, as required under Recognition Rule 3.4.5(1).  The firm has subsequently disputed the findings and has appealed to the Financial Markets Tribunal.

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has decided to maintain the Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility (ODF) at 4.40%; this move is in line with the US Fed that decided to maintain its Interest Rate on Reserve Balances unchanged. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at 50 bps above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities.

Nasdaq Dubai welcomed Mena’s first corporate Blue Bond listing of US$ 100 million by DP World, issued under its US$ 10 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme; The five-year bond carries a 5.25% coupon rate and matures in 2029, with the issuance achieving a spread of 99.6 bps above US Treasuries – the tightest spread ever achieved by DP World in both the bond and Sukuk markets. The bourse Environmental, Social and Governance offerings also include Green Bonds, Sustainability Bonds and Sustainability-Linked Bonds. The total value of debt listings on Nasdaq Dubai currently stands at US$ 137 billion, of which US$ 29 billion consists of ESG-linked issuances.

Since announcing a five-year turnaround plan in April 2023, Union Properties has managed to raise US$ 354 million from the sale of plots – a big boost for its cash position. CEO Amer Khansaheb noted that “this milestone (of bringing in AED 1.3 billion) also reflects our growing financial strength and enhanced liquidity position.” Following earlier mismanagement by the then senior management, the company has come a long way from its then precarious position. It also hopes to raise more funding from its recent Motor City project launch, its first off-plan launch for some years, which will also boost cash flow and help to reduce its debt burden.

Mashreq Bank reported a 12.0% jump in net profit before tax of US$ 2.70 billion for 2024, attributable to robust revenue growth, digital expansion, and strategic international plays; after tax profit grew to US$ 2.45 billion – 78% higher on the quarter and 4% on the year.

Total operating income rose 24% to US$ 3.65 billion, driven by a 9% rise in net interest income and a 63% jump in non-interest income, which hit US$ 1.36 billion. The bank registered a Non-Performing Loan ratio of just 1.35%, among the lowest, with net releases in impairment allowances totalled US$ 45 million, as the capital adequacy ratio strengthened to 17.5%. Customer deposits grew 10% to US$ 44 billion, with low-cost CASA deposits accounting for 66%of the mix, as loans/advances jumped 18% helping push total assets up 11% on the year to US$ 72.75 billion.

Emirates NBD reported a 15.0% increase in 2024 net profit to a record US$ 7.38 billion profit before tax in 2024, with profit after tax 7.0% higher at US$ 6.27 billion, as income climbed to over US$ 12.0 billion; the Board has proposed a dividend of US$ 0.27 a share. It posted a 10% loan growth in 2024, with US$ 24.00 billion of new corporate lending on optimisation of regional network and a 30% increase in retail lending as Priority and Private banking franchise grows rapidly. Deposit mix grew by US$ 22.34 billion, including a US$ 13.08 billion increase in Current and Savings Accounts. The Board has proposed a dividend of US$ 0.27 a share.

Last year, Emirates Islamic registered a 46% rise in profit before tax to a record US$ 845 million, with net profit after tax 32% higher at US$ 763 million, driven by a positive trend in both funded and non-funded income. Total income increased 13.0% to US$ 1.47 billion as assets grew 27.0% to US$ 30.25 billion, as both customer financing and customer deposits both showed healthy increases of 31% to US$ 19.35 billion and 25.0`% to US$ 20.98 billion.

In 2024, Dubai Financial Market Company posted a 24.2% hike in pre-tax profit to US$ 112 million, driven by robust trading volumes, strong capital inflows, a surge in both retail and institutional investor activity and sustained market performance in addition to investment returns performance. Revenue, including operating income and investment/other income at US$ 96 million and US$ 76 million, was 15.5% higher at US$ 172 million. Overall expenses, excluding tax, were 2.3% higher, on the year, at US$ 61 million During the year, the DFM General Index surged by 27.1%, closing at 5,158.67 on 31 December 2024 – its highest level since September 2014 and the fourth consecutive year of expansion. Its market cap jumped 31.8% to US$ 247.14 billion and the DFM was the best performing bourse in the region for the second year in a row. 2024 also saw DFM’s market capitalisation grow to US$ 247.14 billion, a 31.8% rise from 2023. Average Daily Trading Value increased by 5.0%, reaching US$ 115 million, while total traded value grew by 5.5 percent to US$ 29 .15 billion. The Board proposed a cash dividend of US$ 70 million, representing 3.2% of the capital and 96.8% of the total retained earnings available for distribution.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 27 January twenty-six points, (0.3%), higher the previous week, shed forty-six points (0.9%), to close the trading week on 5,180 points by Friday 31 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.13 higher the previous week, gained US$ 0.06, closing on US$ 3.68 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.71, US$ 6.10, US$ 2.05 and US$ 0.43 and closed on US$ 0.70, US$ 5.68, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.40. On 31 January, trading was at one hundred and ninety-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and seventy-three million dollars, compared to two hundred and three million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and thirty-five million dollars on 24 January.

In 2024, the bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 December at 5,159 was 1,096 points (27.0%) higher in the twelve months. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.34, to close the year at US$ 3.50. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2024 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed 2024 at US$ 0.77, US$ 5.84, US$ 1.93 and US$ 0.41.

On 01 January the bourse opened on 5,159 points and ended the month 21 points higher, (0.4%) at on 5,180. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 3.50, and had gained US$ 0.18, to close the month at US$ 3.68. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.77, US$ 5.84, US$ 1.93 and US$ 0.41 and closed 2024 at US$ 0.70, US$ 5.68, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.40.

By Friday, 31 January 2025, Brent, US$ 2.34 lower (10.9%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.72 (2.2%) to close on US$ 76.83. Gold, US$ 196 (7.6%) higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 51 (1.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,832 on 31 January 2025.

Brent started last year on US$ 77.23 and shed US$ 2.42 (3.1%), to close 31 December 2024 on US$ 74.81. By the end of January, the yellow metal was trading at US$ 2,832 – US$ 208 (7.9%) higher YTD. The yellow metal opened 2024 trading at US$ 2,074 and gained US$ 550 (26.5%) to close last year on US$ 2,624.

Boeing, ending a miserable year, posted a 2024 loss of US$ 11.8 billion, attributable to a raft of factors including safety concerns, quality control issues and a damaging seven-week strike by 33k of its workforce, which cost the aerospace giant US$ 3.8 billion. Towards the end of the yea, it shed 10% of its workforce and started to raise more than US$ 20 billion through a combination of share sales and borrowing in order to protect its credit rating.  It also delayed the entry into service of the 777X. A new version of the long-haul workhorse, it was already years late but had been expected to start operating in 2025. It will not now carry passengers until 2026.  Last year, it delivered three hundred and forty-eight commercial planes – less than half of the total delivered by its main rival Airbus’s seven hundred and sixty-six. On top of the multiple problems facing its commercial division, there were concerns raised affecting a number of defence programmes, with the unit losing more than US$ 5 billion, driven by soaring costs on fixed price military contracts.

In Q4, Ryanair posted an almost tenfold increase in its net profit, at US$ 156 million, driven by more passengers, (9% higher to forty-five million)), and higher fares attributable to pricier tickets, (up 1.0%), with customers booking closer to departure time. It was only last August that chief executive Michael O’Leary said estimated fares would drop a further 5% coming into winter, after a Q2 7.0% decline. However, going forward it expects fewer passengers, (down four million to two hundred and six million), because of the ordered Boeing planes not arriving because of supply problems, but if achieved it will be 3.0% higher on 2024.

Jaguar Land Rover is to invest US$ 81 million to expand its bespoke paint services, in expectation of a doubling in demand from its wealthy customer base. that it expects to more than double its bespoke paint operation. The UK’s largest luxury car maker, which is owned by India’s Tata Group, is planning new paint facilities in Castle Bromwich, UK and Nitra, Slovakia. This move to “tart up” some new Range Rovers follows an earlier Rolls Royce initiative to invest US$ 373 million to build more highly customised versions of its cars for super-rich customers.

Samsung Electronics Co registered its Q4 net income which rose more than 20% on the year despite the waning global demand for memory chips, beating market expectations. Its Q4 net income totalled US$ 5.33 billion up 22.2% on the year. Operating profit soared 129.9% to US$ 4.47 billion, while sales were 11.8% higher at US$ 52.19 billion won; the average estimate of net profit by analysts stood at US$ 3.92 billion. The company’s flagship semiconductor business posted US$ 2.00 billion in operating profit on US$ 20.73 billion in sales.. For the entire 2024, its annual net profit surged 122.5% to US$ 23.73 billion, and its operating income expanded nearly fivefold to US$ 22.54 billion won from US$ 4.53 billion. Annual revenue rose 16.2%to US$ 207.23 billion, marking the second-highest yearly figure after the record high set in 2022.

Customers at JD Wetherspoon have seen a 2.2% rise in the average price of a meal to US$ 8.50, as prices of alcoholic drinks and meal deals increasing by US$ 0.187 and US$ 0.374. The pub giant’s boss Tim Martin has previously called on the Starmer administration to cut VAT on pub food – in line with VAT on supermarket food. He continued that “the VAT distortions that exist today will inevitably create more supermarkets and less pubs. Wetherspoon therefore calls upon Sir Keir Starmer to redress this imbalance, thereby striking a blow for tax equality and ending discrimination in favour of dull dinner parties.”

Two hundred and thirty years since it opened its first shop in 1795, WH Smith is in secret talks to sell its entire high street business in the UK, comprising almost five hundred stores and 5k staff. Its high street division, which largely sells greeting cards, books and stationery, posted flat operating profit of US$ 40 million last year, while the travel arm, which is part of the same group, and operates from airports, stations and hospitals, has a wider offering of food and drink, and technology products. On the LSE, WH Smith has a market cap of around US$ 1.90 billion. The new strategy is to divest its high street arm and reposition the company as a pure-play travel retail company, more so as this unit, with 1.2k stores across thirty-two countries, accounts for 75% of revenue and 85% of profits, reflecting its higher margins. Meanwhile, the company has reported a 6.0% decline in its high street sales over the previous twenty-one weeks.

Days after their shares were delisted on the LSE, it is reported that Quiz Clothing will appoint an administrator to see whether it should file for insolvency. The Ramzan family, founders of the fashion business, may allow the family take control of a restructured business, with a marked reduction in employee and store numbers, currently at 1.5k staff and sixty standalone stores. Over the past fortnight, there seems to have been nothing but bad news for the retail sector, still reeling from the Chancellor’s triple whammy of employers NI contribution being raised 1.2% to 15.0%, moving the minimum wage higher and mmm. Poundland’s parent has hired advisers to assess options for the leading discount chain; kitchenware retailer, Lakeland, has been put up for sale, The Original Factory Shop is likely to be sold to family office Baaj Capital, and WH Smith is in talks to sell its entire high street chain, numbering five hundred stores and about 5k employees.

In early December 2024, Fairlane Yachts, one of the UK’s biggest luxury boat manufacturers was sold Hanover Investors to Arrowbolt Propulsion Systems. Less than two months later, it has entered into administration, following its main creditor triggered the insolvency process. Alvarez & Marsal, having been appointed as administrators, commented that “the business is continuing to trade as usual. We are thankful for the support and understanding of staff and there are no redundancies at this time. We are actively pursuing a sale of the business and are confident of a substantial amount of interest given the recognised brand and strong heritage.

The company employs some two hundred and fifty people, with no redundancies being triggered by the insolvency. Over the past two years there have been two major industry sales – Princess Yachts was sold to investor KPS Capital Partners and Sunseeker, acquired by international investors Lionheart Capital and Orienta Capital Partners.

It appears that UK insurance unicorn, Marshmallow, is in the throes of finalising a new capital injection valuing it at more than US$ 1.87billion, despite the current downturn in funding for many technology companies. It is reported that advanced talks are to secure tens of millions of pounds in its first major equity fundraising in more than three years. It was founded in 2015 by identical twins Oliver and Alexander Kent-Braham and David Goaté, with the aim helping customers who are typically underserved by the insurance market, including immigrants and expats. It is reported that Marshmallow’s 2023 revenues soared 75%, now employs more than 300 people, and had secured a US$ 18.69 billion debt facility from Triple Point, a provider of private credit, in May 2023.

In a bid to get the UK’s sluggish economy moving again, and as expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has backed a third runway at London’s Heathrow Airport, as well as expansions at Luton and Gatwick airports, along with a “growth corridor” between Oxford and Cambridge, which she claimed could be “Europe’s Silicon Valley” she claimed that it will include  new reservoirs to address water shortages in the area and investment in high tech industries, would add up to US$ 97.23 billion to the UK economy by 2035. Other projects announced included a major redevelopment of Old Trafford, the area around a new stadium for Manchester United, and a plan to bring Doncaster/Sheffield airport back into use and boost industry at East Midlands airport. In her Oxford speech this week, she insisted that insisted the government had “begun to turn things round” and was determined to go “further and faster” to boost growth, whilst describing the UK as a country of “huge potential” which had been “held back” for “too long” because politicians lacked the “courage” to challenge the status quo. Reeves she has been “genuinely shocked” at how slow the planning system is – and claims new powers in the Planning and Infrastructure Bill would cut years off the lengthy periods it has taken to get major infrastructure projects off the ground. Furthermore, the Chancellor is looking to ease restrictions on big pension funds to encourage them to invest more in UK businesses.

Last September, Brian Niccol left Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc to become the new CEO at Starbucks and, by the end of the year, was the recipient of a US$ 96 million remuneration package. About 94% of Niccol’s pay came from stock awards, with most of them tied to performance and the rest being time-based, vesting over a three-year period. On top of all that, he did receive a US$ 5 million “signing-on fee”, after his one-month anniversary with the company, and the company allowed him not to move to Seattle, (where Starbucks is based), but gave him use of a private jet so he could travel 1.2k miles from his Newport Beach home!

He also received than US$ 143k in housing expenses and also spent about $72k flying between his home and workplace. At the time he started with Starbucks, last September, Bloomberg estimated his annual remuneration at US$ 113 million, with a large part tied to equity to replace awards from his prior employer that he had to relinquish.

Myer and Premier Investments have reached agreement that will see the leading Australian retailer acquire five of PI’s fashion chains – Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Dotti and Jacqui E – which will give Myer a retail footprint of more than seven hundred and eighty retail stores, across Australia and New Zealand. Premier retains ownership of its Smiggle stationery brand and sleepwear label Peter Alexander. Myer considers this as “one of the most significant” deals in the department store’s one hundred and twenty-four-year history. There is no doubt that there was need for it to expand in an environment whereby the higher cost of living was impacting shoppers and the retail sector. It is estimated that the combined group would create a “leading retail platform”, in Australia and New Zealand, which recorded more than US$ 2.53 billion worth of sales in the last fiscal year. However, there are some shareholders unhappy with the merger, referring to Premier’s fashion chains as “B-grade brands at best”. For several years, Myers’ performance on the Australian Stock Exchange has been disappointing and actually fell sharply, when the latest trading update was released.  This merger was one of inevitability and sees Premier’s billionaire chairman Solomon Lew fulfil a long-held dream by taking the reins at Myer; Premier was already Myers biggest shareholder, with a 33% stake, and following the merger, Lew is now its largest shareholder. Whether the new set up will be successful remains to be seen and whether Myers will ever return to its former glory is debateable.

Australia’s Rex airline was placed into voluntary administration in mid-2024, after the failure of its expansion into capital city routes, and now the Albanese  government has stepped in to rescue it, after acquiring US$ 32 million in debt from its largest creditor, PAGAC Regulus Holdings Limited; this arrangement makes the government the principal secured creditor and it will now work with administrators on the next steps to protect regional connectivity.  If successful, this will prevent a potential collapse that would have left much of rural Australia with no air links, as Rex had provided transport for passengers, freight, and medical needs to regional centres across Australia. Last year, there were estimates that the carrier was US$ 316 million in debt, to 4.8k creditors including former staff, suppliers, and investors. The government has since loaned the company US$ 51 million to maintain services, and over US$ 4 million in entitlements paid to former Rex staff and ticket sale guarantees. The government seems confident that it will recoup its debt and will continue to work with administrators to find a buyer for the embattled regional airline that tried to take on the big boys, Qantas and Virgin, and crashed to the ground.

No great surprises out of the European Central Bank this afternoon – it has cut all three of its main interest rates, as widely expected, by 0.25%, with the main deposit rate now standing at 2.75%. The ECB, which is the central bank for the European nations that sets monetary policy for the nations using the euro, was au fait with the current inflation being at 2.75%, and expects it to hit its 2.0% target later this year. Successive rate cuts have been made to boost the economy which has flatlined over the past two quarters, with early estimates pointing to Q4 zero growth; rates have been cut five times since last June. The bloc has been badly impacted by its two leading economies with Germany still in recession and France in contraction in Q4.

On Monday, shares in many tech giants – including AI chipmaker Nvidia, (down 16% by midday), Broadcom, (17.8% lower), Microsoft, (minus 3.7%), and Alphabet, (down 3.0%) – slumped after the Chinese DeepSeek app hit the market, only last week, to become the most downloaded free app in the US; this includes OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Reports indicate the app was developed for a fraction of the cost of its rivals, raising questions about the future of America’s AI dominance and the scale of investments US firms are planning. It was only last week that OpenAI joined a group of other firms who pledged to invest US$ 500 billion in building AI infrastructure in the US, which the US President, commented was the largest AI infrastructure project by far in history that would help keep “the future of technology” in the US. The irony is that the cost of DeepSeek, powered by the open source DeepSeek-V3 model, only cost US$ 6 million! The company says it already uses existing technology, as well as open-source code – software that can be used, modified or distributed by anybody free of charge. One benefit for the US is that the country is dominant when it comes to the supply of the advanced chip technology ,needed to power AI.

Driven by an increased number of strikes, bad weather including hurricanes and major fires, US economic growth slowed in Q4, 0.8% lower on the quarter, to 2.3% by the end of last year, as trade and investment declined; the slowdown was worse than analysts had expected. Donald Trump had already called for a shake up including tariffs, which have already started, along with major cuts to government spending. However, overall growth last year was “surprisingly strong”, with consumer spending – the biggest driver of the US economy – rising 4.2%, attributable to a jump in purchases of goods, including cars.; in addition, the resilient labour continues to be robust. There was a decline in both exports and imports of goods, as well as private investment dipping largely due to the strike at aerospace giant Boeing.

A sign of the economic stress faced by many UK businesses, big and small, is reflected in the latest Red Flag Alert report by Begbies Traynor, posting that there had been an “unprecedented” rise in the number of businesses on the brink of insolvency. It indicated that those companies, in critical financial distress, rose by 50%, on the quarter, in Q4, to 46.6k businesses and added that there were “notable” increases in financial stress across all but one of the twenty-two sectors surveyed. Some of the drivers behind these financial woes included soaring energy costs, budget tax measures, high interest rates and weak consumer demand. All five of the survey’s components, including the outlook for personal finances and the economy, had declined.

It is no surprise to see that relationship between President Trump and the Federal Reserve continue to be strained and he had been on social media after interest rates were left unchanged, in a range of 4.25% – 4.5%, with him calling for them to be cut. He accused the central bank, and specifically its chairman Jerome Powell, of mishandling the economy, saying they had “failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation”. Powell said the bank was not “in a hurry” to cut more, and he agrees with some leading economists who are critical of Trump’s stance of initiating sweeping tariffs, mass deporting of illegal immigrants, along with slashing taxes and regulations. Trump’s campaign promises included calls for lower interest rates, which would bring relief to borrowers.

Tomorrow, 01 February, will see Donald Trump following through with his threat to levy 25% import tariffs on goods with the probable exception of oil, from Mexico and Canada. (Around 40% of the crude that runs through US oil refineries is imported, and the vast majority of it comes from Canada). China will be hit by a 10% levy. The president confirmed the reasoning behind these charges were trade deficits, illegal migration and the trade in fentanyl. In his first term as president, he imposed tariffs on Chinese goods that resulted in imports flattening since 2018. In the coming weeks, it is inevitable that the world will learn more  of Trump’s Tradin’ War Stories!

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Out Of Her Depth!

Posted on January 24, 2025 by howesdubai

Out of Her Depth!                                                              24 January 2025

A new report by fäm Properties estimates that Dubai’s 2024 secondary property market generated capital gains of US$ 16.27 billion, equating to 32% of Dubai’s record high total re-sale value of US$ 51.25 billion. Over the past five years, total re-sale profits have surged 1,300% and 34% higher on the year. According to DXBinteract, of the one hundred and thirty-six areas, the highest amount of capital gain, US$ 1.77 billion, was achieved on Palm Jumeirah, followed by Dubai Marina, Dubai Hills Estate, Downtown Dubai and Business Bay. Jumeirah Village Circle was the top-performing area for ready property developer sales last year and placed second behind Dubai Marina in total re-sale transactions. The increase, value and volume in apartment and villa sales came in at 42.0%, US$ 71.00 billion and 141.2k plus 21.1%, US$ 44.71 billion and 21.1%. Commercial property transactions were up 10.1% in volume to 4.3k units at US$ 2.64 billion, while 4.4k plots sold for US$ 23.57 billion – 2.6% higher.

Good news this week for some property owners in SZR, (from the Trade Centre Roundabout to the Water Canal) and Al Jaddaf area, who can now convert their properties to freehold ownership. The announcement by the Dubai Land Department gave permission for a total of four hundred and fifty-seven, (with one hundred and twenty-eight along SZR), are eligible for conversion to freehold. There is no doubt that this will see property prices surge, in these two localities, as there will be robust demand from both investors and end-users. The DLD will charge each application a 30% conversion fee after which the property will become freehold. An indicator that profits will be high can be seen from what happened when property in Al Wasl became freehold, and prices doubled to US$ 1,226, (AED 4.5k). Furthermore, growing consumer confidence will lead to more robust rental yields, with higher returns coming, with redevelopment and modernising old buildings. Commercial properties also stand to attract international businesses.

Having announced a record 2024 set of results, Sobha is aiming to top that in 2025. Last year, the developer posted sales of US$ 6.27 billion and has forecast a 30.4% rise in Dubai revenue, to US$ 8.17 billion – two thirds of which emanate from its Dubai-based business and the balance from its iconic project, Sobha Siniya Island in Umm Al Quwain. On completion, the island will house 25k residents, in 8k housing units, with 2.14k units already sold since its launch last year. In 2024, Sobha accounted for 10% of Dubai’s real estate market share in 2024 with 11 masterplans across the UAE.

Earlier in the month, in the presence of Donald Trump, Hussain Sajwani pledged US$ 20 billion to be used for investing in the US. This week, Damac’s founder posted that “we are also planning the launch of our Miami-based luxury condominium project this year, which will be designed by the renowned Zaha Hadid Architects,” and “we will continue to evaluate premium real estate as well as data centres opportunities across key US markets.” Edgnex Data Centres by Damac has posted that it has plans to double its initial US$ 20.0 billion investment on the basis of future demand, market opportunity and scalability.

To enhance Dubai’s road infrastructure, to meet ongoing growth and accommodate projected urban and population expansion, Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, and also the Roads and Transport Authority’s chairman, has announced the US$ 409 million contract for the Al Fay Street Development Project. The project extends from its intersection with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, passes through Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan Al Nahyan Street, and continues to Emirates Road. The project will feature 13.5k mt of bridges, 12.9k mt of roads and five key intersections; it will enhance Al Fay Street’s capacity to accommodate 64.4k vehicles per hour.

‘Dubai Universal Blueprint for Artificial Intelligence’ was launched last year, with the twin aims of promoting AI adoption across industries and consolidating the emirate’s “position as a global leader in emerging technologies”. Since then, the initiative has seen Chief AI Officers appointed in the public sector and schoolteachers trained in AI. This week, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed made a significant announcement concerning Gulf Data Hub. The Dubai-based firm, founded in 2012, posted that it will join with KKR & Co, to invest US$ 5.0 billion towards consolidating its market leading position. The global private equity firm will be acquiring a stake in the Dubai firm which will be one of the largest international investments into a UAE-founded and managed business. The Crown Prince commented that “this landmark investment, the first of its kind in the region, will expand data centre capacity in the UAE and the ME,” adding that “we look forward to welcoming more partners, as we advance Dubai’s digital capabilities and drive AI innovation. Dubai is the future, and the future is Dubai.”

At the fifty-fifth World Economic Forum in Davos, the UAE’s Minister of Economy, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, participated in a session titled ‘Hard Power: A Wake-Up Call for Businesses Amid Global Economic Shifts’; he emphasised the private sector’s role as a key partner in driving national economic growth and boosting its competitiveness at both regional and international levels. He also spotlighted the country’s competitive advantages and vibrant business ecosystem. He also added that last year, the number of new economic licenses issued in UAE markets totalled 200k. The minister also spoke on the visionary approach to developing a dynamic and competitive economic legislative framework, based on global best practices. The end result was that it made the country a more attractive destination for global businesses and entrepreneurs whilst enhancing its position as a leading and global hub for business and investment. He also spoke how the country has welcomed the private sector by making it easier, in many ways, to make all necessary enablers and resources to increase its contribution to non-oil sectors.  He also spoke of the global economic risks, including protectionist policies, rising trade tensions, and supply chain disruptions, that act as obstacles for investors, and businesses alike; these need to be addressed by flexible economic strategies, focusing on emerging sectors, boosting economic openness, and supporting a multilateral global economic system. Finally, the Minister indicated that the country views technology as the key tool for overcoming future challenges, and is actively promoting investment in new economic sectors like AI,, fintech, and digital infrastructure.

The latest Global Power City Index report, from the Institute for Urban Strategies at the Mori Memorial Foundation in Japan, ranks Dubai the cleanest city in the world for the fifth consecutive year; forty-seven cities were included in the survey. The emirate achieved a perfect score of 100% in the cleanliness metric, one of the key indicators used to assess the global strength of cities.

Online data base, Numbeo has ranked Abu Dhabi the world’s safest city for the ninth consecutive year, with fourth to seventh places taken by Dubai, Sharjah, RAK and Ajman. Doha came in second place followed by Taipei. Numbeo’s website ranked three hundred and eighty-two cities and evaluation was based on comprehensive safety metrics that checked security systems, community-focused policing initiatives and emergency response capabilities.

According to its Chief Projects Officer, Mohammed Al Shehhi, Etihad Rail will contribute US$ 39.50 billion to the country’s GDP over the next five decades.  He emphasised that the high-speed rail network, connecting Abu Dhabi and Dubai, will not only facilitate rapid and convenient travel but also serve as a catalyst for enhanced economic and social integration. The high speed train, carrying  some four hundred passengers, with speeds of up to 350 kph, will cut the Dubai-Abu Dhabi travel time to under thirty minutes, stopping at six stations including Reem Island, Saadiyat Island, and Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, and stations in proximity to Al Maktoum International Airport and the Jaddaf area in Dubai. The high-speed rail system, operating entirely on electric power, will make a substantial contribution towards achieving the objectives outlined in the “UAE Net Zero 2050′ Strategic Initiative.

A warning to taxpayers in the country, failing to pay the due corporate tax on time, that they will be subject to a monthly payment of 14% per annum. This penalty is imposed on the unpaid tax amount and is calculated from the day following the payment deadline, accruing on the same date each subsequent month. The due date is no later than nine months after the end of the relevant tax period, in accordance with Federal Decree-Law No  47 of 2022 on Corporate Tax and its subsequent amendments.

Salik’s toll-gate operations reported a 2.4% hike in 30 September YTD net profit of US$ 224 million, attributable a 6.5% increase in revenue to US$ 447 million. Last November, with two new Salik gates opening, it is expected that 2025 revenue will show a marked increase of up to 25%, also aided by the increase in road traffic. Starting 31 January, Salik will introduce their new variable road toll gate fees for Dubai’s roads:

                                    Monday – Saturday                           Sunday

01.00 – 06.00 hrs       Free                                                     Free                                        

06.00 – 10.00 hrs       AED 6.00        (US$ 1.63)                  AED 4.00

10.00 – 16.00 hrs       AED 4.00        (US$ 1.09)                  AED 4.00       

16.00 – 20.00 hrs       AED 6.00        (US$ 1.63)                  AED 4.00                   

20.00 – 01.00 hrs       AED 4.00        (US$ 1.09)                  AED 4.00       

On Sundays, excluding public holidays, special occasions, or major events, the toll will remain US$ 1.09 all day and will be free from 1am to 6am. Hours during the holy month of Ramadan, expected to start on or around 28 February, will be as follows:

                                    Monday – Saturday                           Sunday

02.00 – 07.00 hrs       Free                                                     Free    

0700 – 09.00 hrs       AED 4.00        (US$ 1.09)                  AED 4.00                   

09.00 – 17.00 hrs       AED 6.00        (US$ 1.63)                  AED 4.00       

17.00 – 02.00 hrs       AED 4.00        (US$ 1.09)                  AED 4.00

These initiatives also included event-specific parking tariffs aimed at improving traffic flow in Dubai. There are also reports that event-specific parking tariffs, initially near major events around the Trade Centre, will cost US$ 6.81 per hour, (AED 25).

A recent 2024 report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has ranked UAE among the top thirty-five countries globally with the largest shipping fleets by tonnage and capacity. Meanwhile, the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf posted that ten Gulf container ports were ranked among the seventy most efficient ports globally in 2024, out of a total of four hundred and five ports worldwide.

Dubai Investments, a listed DFM company, with the  emirate’s sovereign wealth fund holding a stake, announced that it would be IPOing four of its subsidiaries; its chief executive, Khalid bin Kalban, noted that “we think that there are at least four companies in the portfolio worth looking at for IPO,” and that “the discussion is going on now [around] what multiples we are going to get and what value we are going to get for our divestments.” The company has operations in various sectors including:

real estate                                         Properties Investment, Al Mal Capital Reit, Dubai Investment Real Estate, Al Taif Investment and Dubai Investments Park. Assets in Dubai and RAK worth more than US$ 4.08 billion

building materials/construction  Emirates Building Systems and Emirates Float Glass. and district cooling company Emicool. Total asset value – US$ 544 million, with a further 2025 capex budget of US$ 272 million

education                                          Africa Crest Education Fund

financial services and others         Dubai Investments International Limited, Dubai International Holding Company and Al Mal Capital. Its financial portfolio is valued at about US$ 1.36 billion with investments in bonds/equities and private/listed companies

healthcare                                         Kings College Hospital London in Dubai, Clemenceau Medicine International, Global Fertility Partners and Globalpharma                            

Dubai Investments’ total assets by the end of Q3 2024 stood at US$ 6.0 billion, with the chief executive commenting that “I like to reach a maximum AED 25 billion, (US$ 6.81 billion) and then start offloading some of the companies, or exiting from some of the companies”.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 20 January fourteen points, (0.5%), lower the previous week, gained twenty-six points (0.3%), to close the trading week on 5,226 points by Friday 24 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.13, closing on US$ 3.62 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.06, US$ 1.99 and US$ 0.42 and closed on US$ 0.71, US$ 6.10, US$ 2.05 and US$ 0.43. On 24 January, trading was at two hundred and three million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and thirty-five million dollars, compared to two hundred and fourteen million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-one million dollars on 17 January.

By Friday, 24 January 2025, Brent, US$ 7.95 higher (10.9%) the previous five weeks, shed US$ 2.34 (2.9%) to close on US$ 78.55. Gold, US$ 102 (3.9%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 94 (3.5%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,781 on 24 January 2025.

According to GCC-Stat, the Gulf commercial fleet accounted for 54.2% of the total Arab commercial fleet in 2023. Data further revealed that most GCC countries surpassed the Arab average in the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index, recording 100.5 in 2023. Additionally, the number of major Gulf seaports exceeded twenty-five last year. Regarding container productivity, two Gulf ports were listed among the high-production ports with output exceeding four million containers, while eight ports were classified as medium-production ports, with output ranging between 0.5 million and four million containers.

There are reports that the world’s second largest mining company, Rio Tinto, is holding merger talks with the global commodities trader Glencore. It seems that the mining giant is in the market to acquire more future-facing commodities such as lithium. Like other major rivals, Rio is flush with cash and will be looking to distribute that cash and expand their asset sizes.

In 2024, there was an annual 5.9% rise, to US$ 12.3 trillion, in assets of China’s centrally administered state-owned enterprises. As reported by the Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the total profits of these enterprises reached US$ 355.0 billion, with spending on R&D topping US$ 150.2 billion. Fixed-asset investment by the SOEs, including real estate, grew 3.9%, on the year, to US$ 723.5 billion and strategic emerging industries, up 21.8%, to US$ 368.6 billion.

Driven by December industrial production surging 6.2% higher, on the year, (mainly down to external frontloading demand), China’s 2024 economy expanded 5.0%, (US$ 18.77 trillion). The country’s troubled property market continued to stabiliselast month, with the decline, in prices for new and second-hand homes and residential property sales, slowing down, but whether any improvement can be maintained going into 2025 is problematic. Data for the property sector, including sales and new construction starts measured by floor area, showed some improvement, boosting sentiment.

Most people, with mortgages here and the UK cannot wait for interest rates to be cut from the current 4% – 5% level, should count their blessings when news this week saw Türkiye’s central bank has lowered its key interest rate by 2.5% to 45%, as official figures showed inflation was easing.

The fact that in December, Australia’s unemployment rate nudged 0.1%, is another indicator that the chance of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting next month is slowly diminishing. Last month, 56k people found work – easily beating the 15k market expectation – but that this may not be enough to justify cutting rates. The monthly CPI indicator rose 0.2% on the month in November to 2.3%, with the annual movement for the monthly CPI indicator, excluding volatile items and holiday travel, was 2.8% in November, following a 2.4% rise in October. Another sign of the current strength in the labour market is the employment to population ratio being at a record high 64.5%, with the unemployment rising to 4.0%, attributable to more people looking for work. However, an increase in labour force participation led to the number of unemployed people also increasing by 10k. December witnessed 80k part-time jobs being created whilst full-time jobs fell by 23.7k. The Q1 fiscal figures, (ending 30 September), indicated that there was an annual 0.6% slowdown to 3.5%, on the quarter, in wage growth figures.  There is a school of thought that says that inflation tends to be higher when unemployment is low and the job market is strong, due to upward wage pressure. It seems that the RBA has somehow managed to have full employment, without the associated inflationary wage pressures. Over the coming months, the jobs market will become tighter but what happens if the economy slows?

Last week’s blog noted that the World Bank had predicted 2.7% global growth this year which would be its weakest performance since 2019, aside from the sharp contraction seen at the height of the Covid pandemic. This week, it is the IMF’s turn, noting that inflation is moderating back towards central bank targets and growth holding steady at 3.3% for this year and 2026. The IMF expects higher US growth, than previously predicted, to offset lower growth in other major economies. It highlights concerns with the arrival of Donald Trump and the risks involved if he were to introduce tariffs, (that could be 10% globally on imports, 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as 60% for Chinese goods), and warns an inflationary US boom could be followed by a possible bust that would potentially “weaken the role of US Treasuries as the global safe asset”. He has also said he would impose 100% tariffs on ther BRICS bloc of nine nations, (including the UAE), if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. Furthermore, with the likes of Elon Musk in his cabal, if red tape is cut too much, this could lead to a surging dollar that would see other currencies heading downwards which in turn could lead to a further economic slowdown. In addition, any move by the new Trump administration to deport illegal immigrants could “permanently reduce potential output” and also raise inflation.

The IMF noted that although global inflation is nudging lower to central bank targets, there are risks and uncertainty ahead. It noted that “key risks include a sharper slowdown in Europe, due to energy costs and public debt concerns, and in China, where insufficient policy support could trigger a stagnation trap. In the US, fiscal and trade policy shifts, as well as possible curbs on immigration or a confidence boom fuelled by expected deregulation, could act in opposite directions to affect output but overall can stoke inflationary pressures, requiring tighter monetary policy. These dynamics could strain emerging markets through tighter financial conditions and a stronger US dollar”.

A day after her husband launched the $Trump cryptocurrency, (with a market value of US$ 12.0 billion), his wife, Melania Trump has introduced a cryptocurrency, $MELANIA – a crypto asset created and tracked on the Solana blockchain – on the eve of her husband’s inauguration on 20 January. According to the CoinMarketCap website, $Melania’s stands at around US$ 1.7 billion. It seems that both coins were “not intended to be, or the subject of” an investment opportunity or a security. During his campaign, the new President commented that he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint financial regulators that take a more positive stance towards digital assets.

Following the entry of sports programmes to the Netflix portfolio, along with an improved and enhanced content line-up, shares in Netflix soared over US$ 994.36 million on Wednesday; a blockbuster Q4, which saw a record number of new subscribers, adding 18.9 million or 44.3% on the year, also witnessed its market cap surging US$ 53.0 billion to US$ 425.0 billion. The stock’s twelve-month forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 35.43 compared with Walt Disney’s 19.19. Last year, Netflix’s stock soared about 83%, compared to Disney’s 23%, whilst Warner Bros Discovery dipped 7%.

Last Saturday, TikTok went ‘dead’ but within twenty-four hours it had resumed normal service to its one hundred and seventy million users in US, after the new President said he  would issue an executive order to give the app a reprieve when he takes office. The Chinese-owned app stopped working for American users, after a law banning it on national security grounds came into effect, and after no US buyer had shown interest in buying the app by the appointed date of 19 January. The tech company thanked the incoming president for “providing the necessary clarity and assurance” and said it would work with Trump “on a long-term solution that keeps TikTok in the United States”.

The Stargate Project was announced by Donald Trump this week which brought together the combined forces of the leaders of OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank with another US tech giant, a Japanese investment firm and MGX, an Emirati sovereign wealth fund. Other technology partners include British chipmaker Arm, US chipmaker Nvidia and Microsoft, which already has a partnership with OpenAI. Its immediate aim is to construct US$ 500 billion of AI infrastructure in the US. Although the country is seen as the global leader for AI, the new President opined that he needed to intervene to help the industry. Some of the mega tech giants actively involved in AI investment are Microsoft, set to invest US$ 80 billion to build out AI-powered data centres this year, and Amazon, announcing two projects worth about US$ 10 billion each in just the last two months. It is estimated that global demand for data centre capacity would more than triple by 2030, growing between 19% and 27% annually by 2030.

As it is reported that China is still actively involved in “sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada”, Donald Trump said he was considering a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese-made goods as soon as 01 February; this is a lot less than the 60% he was talking about late last year. Earlier he had threatened Mexico and Canada to levy 25% tariffs on imports, accusing both countries of allowing undocumented migrants and drugs to come into the US. The EU also continues to be in the presidential firing line, with his comments that the EU “treat us very, very badly”, and “so they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way you’re going to get back. It’s the only way you’re going to get fairness.”. Last Monday, the new president also instructed federal agencies to conduct a review of existing trade deals and identify unfair practices by US trading partners. These measures, if enacted, will lead to higher prices for US consumers – and if these nations retaliated with their own import levies could impact on US exports.

An agreement between the UK Ministry of Defence and Rolls Royce sees a US$ 11.24 billion contract for nuclear submarine reactors – the biggest ever between them. The eight-year contract, called Unity, is designed to make the design, manufacture and support services for reactors more efficient and environmentally friendly. It is hoped it will create more than 1k UK jobs and safeguard 4k other roles

It appears that Pepco Group, which has owned Poundland since 2016, has hired AlixPartners to address a sales slump which has raised questions over its future ownership; it has a market cap of some US$ 2.09 billion, and employs some 18k. No final decision has yet to be made but the advisers will be looking at the likes of a company voluntary arrangement, a formal restructuring process – that would almost inevitably result in many of the eight hundred and twenty-five stores closed –   and even a sale of the business. In the short-term, the emphasis will be on improving Poundland’s cash performance and reviving the chain’s customer proposition, having seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period. Pepco stated that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”. Poundland’s crisis contrasts with the health of the rest of the group, with Pepco and Dealz both showing strong sales growth.

Sainsbury’s has revealed plans to cut more than 3k positions as it is to close all of its sixty-one remaining in-store cafes, in a move to save money in the face of a “challenging cost environment”. In addition, there will be retrenchments, seen both at head office and among senior management roles. Like many other businesses in the UK, it is going to suffer from  a massive jump in costs, brought on from measures taken in the October budget. It would do Rachel Reeves well to read what chief executive, Simon Roberts, had to say – “we are facing into a particularly challenging cost environment which means we have had to make tough choices about where we can afford to invest and where we need to do things differently to make our business more efficient and effective”. He had earlier warned then that additional costs would be met with consequences, including higher prices for customers, as the chain did not have the “capacity to absorb” a “barrage of costs”, including an extra US$ 174 million from April to cover the cost of additional employer national insurance contributions alone. The company has a payroll in excess of 148k.

Lakeland, one of Britain’s most prominent privately held retailers, is yet another leading retailer struggling and now exploring a sale, after more than sixty years, amid growing cost pressures sweeping the industry. Lakeland, which employs roughly 1k people, in its fifty-nine 59 stores, at its head office in Windermere and its distribution centres, has appointed advisers to seek a possible sale.

Over the sixteen-week period to 04 January, Primark posted a 6.0% decline in UK and Ireland like for like sales – an indicator that even the discount retailers are facing a tough time. These two countries account for almost half of the company’s revenue, but these losses were partly offset by improved business in key emerging markets of the US, France, Spain, Italy and Portugal. Primark has downgraded its 2025 sales forecast from an earlier single-digit growth to “low single-digit” sales growth. To make matters worse, the British Retail Consortium’s latest Sentiment Monitor showed declines in expectations for both the economy and personal finances, with the outlook for UK consumer confidence diving to a new low.  Like Sainsbury’s, and most UK retailers of any size, Primark is just another victim of the October Budget that will see the retail sector facing US$ 8.71 billion in additional costs from the budget and new packaging levy. Little wonder that the economy will stagnate even more come April.

HM Revenue and Customs confirmed that it has no central record of how many investigations it is carrying out into Russian sanctions. No-one involved with the implementation and management of these sanctions can take credit and should be ashamed to admit that while it had issued only six fines, in relation to sanction-breaking since 2022, it would not name the firms sanctioned or provide any further detail on what they did wrong. Meanwhile, the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation has so far only imposed a single US$ 18.4k fine for breach of financial sanctions.

Some major supermarkets have come out on the side of the farmers in their dispute against the Starmer administration over the introduction of inheritance tax on farms, worth over US$ 1.24 million. Tesco, Lidl and Aldi, which make up about 45% of the UK grocery market, have noted that  “the UK’s future food security is at stake” and the government should pause the introduction of inheritance tax on such farms. Asda and Morrisons have already been vocal about backing farmers in the dispute and Sainsbury’s has also called for the government to listen to concerns, while M&S also released a supportive statement on Wednesday. There is also concern and a warning from the Office for Budget Responsibility that some farmers may slash investment because of these tax changes and may even consider “potentially running down the value of estates”, to limit their tax liability The OBR has also estimated that the tax would only raise a highly uncertain US$ 621 million a year by 2029.

There are many analysts who think that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s estimate, that this abolition will reap US$ 3.65 billion for the Exchequer, is far too optimistic. Some think that it will cost the government, up to a potential of US$ 1.0 billion, whilst others consider that any increase will be well down on the government’s estimate. The Adam Smith Institute estimate that by 2035, these reforms will make the economy US$ 1.58 billion, (GBP 1.3 billion) smaller than it would otherwise have been, which could lead to over 23k job losses. The Growth Commission has warned that it could potentially see the GDP dip 0.5%, whilst cutting revenue by US$ 6.09 billion, (GBP 5 billion). Currently, inheritance tax for a non-dom is only charged on UK-based assets; after 01 April, it will be not only UK but all global assets.

The world body has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK economy this year, to 1.6% – 0.1% higher than its previous estimate – with the Trump caveat that the introduction of tariffs will take all bets off the table; if that were to happen, it sees trade tensions worsening, lower investment, and supply chains disrupted across the world. The IMF report could be seen as a mini boost for the embattled UK Chancellor of the Exchequer who can claim that the UK was the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded.

Robust wage growth, of 3.4%, in the private sector, for the quarter ending 30 November, was the main reason that the UK pay after inflation has risen at its fastest rate for more than three years; growth in the public sector jobs lagged behind. Notwithstanding that the latest wage figures could be a portent for pushing  inflation, currently 0.1% lower at 2.4%, higher, the odds seem to be pointing to the BoE cutting interest rates by 0.25%, to 4.5%, next month. Now that the gap between inflation and pay is biased towards pay for the first time since late 2022 and growth has flatlined. The unemployment rate has nudged up to 4.4%, while the estimated number of vacancies dropped 2.9% to 812k in Q4, continuing the decline but still remaining above pre-Covid pandemic levels; it seems that the main driver for firms putting hiring on hold was a result of the tax rises announced on businesses in the Reeve October Budget, (ROB).

Yet another cause for concern about the state of the UK economy came with official figures noting that UK shop sales unexpectedly fell, by 0.3%, in the run up to Christmas due to a “very poor month” for food being sold in supermarkets; the market had expected an 0.4% rise, as food

sales sank to their lowest level for more than ten years last month, marginally offset by rising sales in clothing/shoe shops, (up 4.4%), and department stores. Not only did the retail sector see a disappointing drop in sales volumes in supermarkets, but also butchers and bakers, along with alcohol and tobacco/vaping shops also struggled. Strangely, Tesco and Sainsbury’s both posted strong trading figures over the festive season. Even Rachel Reeves had to admit that the government had to “do more to grow our economy”, in order to boost living standards, and she will have to lift her game this year to stay in the job.

Many companies and sole traders have been critical of some of the measures that the Chancellor in the first six months of her tenure, initiated – triple hits of the 1.2% rise to 15.0% in the rate of National Insurance paid by employers, a 50% reduction in the NI threshold and an increase in the minimum wage. This week, another leading figure in the retail sector, Next’s Lord Wolfson, came out saying the changes could make it “harder for peoplke to enter the workforce”. A PwC spokesperson noted that 2025 was likely to see the return of “higher price inflation, as retailers pass on the increasing cost of doing business”.

Henley & Partners has posted that the UAE has become the second most popular destination for high-net-worth individuals looking to leave the UK for many reasons as the country continues to roll from one crisis to another. The report indicates that in 2024, a record number, at a record annual increase of 157%, (10.8k), of millionaires left the country, with eight hundred of them moving to the country – with 6.7k heading to the EU. The main reason is as a result of the Starmer administration announcing changes to the tax system, including to the current non-doms status which will see them having to pay inheritance tax as from this April; previously, non-doms paid a US$ 36.5k GBP 30k) annual fee to HM Revenue & Customs to protect their offshore income and gains.

Despite all the economic headwinds facing the UK and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, including public at a higher than expected borrowing, Rachel Reeves says she is “optimistic” on the UK economy, even if after public borrowing rose more than expected in December – at US$ 21.90 billion, and 21.9% higher than market expectations; December interest repayment came in at US$ 10.21 billion. Although tax receipts were higher, they were offset by National Insurance cuts made by the previous government, along with expenditure on public services, benefits, and debt interest which were all up on the year. Add to the mix that recent figures show that the UK economy is flatlining and it is easily seen that the Chancellor is under pressure. The Starmer administration continues its mantra that ‘economic growth is its top priority’, whilst she has repeated her pledge to go “further and faster” to deliver growth. However, the country’s biggest lender, Lloyds Bank, noted that business confidence had “waned further”, with price rises to slow activity this year. There are many who think that the Chancellor’s time in the job is almost over, and it does seem that she may be Out of Her Depth!

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Auf Wiedersehen Pet!

Posted on January 17, 2025 by howesdubai

Auf Wiedersehen Pet!                                                     17 January 2025

An Emirates NBD Research study noted that units priced between US$ 272k and US$ 545k (AED 1 million to AED 2 million) grew by 71% year on year driven by both increases in demand and in supply. It also indicated that of the 168k residential transactions, 114k (68.1%), under construction units were sold last year – up from a 54% share in 2023. A total of 142k units were launched last year. It also estimated that over the past four years, average apartment prices were up 65%, whilst villa/townhouse average rates per sq ft have more than doubled. In Q4, total sales transaction values jumped 31.1% to US$ 3.17 billion, with transaction volumes surging at 46.9k, a 51.8% uptick.

Meanwhile, Springfield Properties’ Q4 2024 Dubai Real Estate Market Report indicated that the recent surge in the Dubai realty sector had been driven by the surge in the growth in the off-plan market, accounting for 50%, (equating to 30.4k), of the total transaction value, in addition to the booming luxury property segment. Established communities like Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai, and Dubai Marina remain dominant forces in the sector. Its CEO, Farooq Syed, noted, “Dubai’s real estate market continues to demonstrate remarkable strength and global appeal, underpinned by strategic planning, visionary developments, and investor confidence”. Hubs, such as Dubai South and Jumeirah Village Circle, continue as growth areas for mid-income buyers, while the luxury off-plan developments in Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Hills Estate still attract robust demand; the former posted the highest average sales price at US$ 1.23k per sq ft.

Meydan has awarded a US$ 144 million contract to Bhatia General Contracting Co for the construction of Naya at District One. The project, located in the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, will encompass three green-roof residential towers, Tower 1 – G+20, Tower 2 – G+12, and Tower 3 – G+16, and will four hundred and fifty-six one-, two, three-, and four-bedroom apartments and lagoon villas. Bhatia General Contracting an independent contracting and construction company with more than four decades of experience in the region, will undertake the construction. The project, scheduled to be completed by Q3 2027, comes with many amenities such as a state-of-the-art gym, sports courts, sprawling green spaces and a rooftop lounge. There will also be dedicated children’s play areas and pools, with access to the thirty-five – hectare Crystal Lagoon, along with fourteen km of shoreline living, redefining modern indoor-outdoor lifestyles.

To support the growing community of blockchain, decentralised finance (DeFi) and Web3 companies, DMCC and REIT Development have unveiled plans for a seventeen-storey project – the Crypto Tower. Located at Jumeirah Lakes Towers, this project, with 150k sq ft of leasable space, will reinforce Dubai’s position as a global tech hub, and will have dedicated areas for crypto startups, blockchain incubators, VC firms, and AI innovation, powered by Chatoshi.ai. In addition, the building will feature cutting-edge facilities, including an indoor event space, outdoor area for crypto events, and a 30k sq ft crypto club. It will also host some unique features including a vault storage area, featuring 5k sq ft of secure space for valuables, a gold bullion shop, an NFT art gallery and an exotic car dealership along with a vault storage area, featuring 5k sq ft of secure space for valuables including gold, cash and cold wallets. Completion is slated by Q1 2027.

Last year Dubai International Airport was ranked as the busiest international airport in the world, by global aviation consultancy OAG, with 60.24 million seats (of airlines), marking an annual 7.0% increase – and a 12.0% hike on numbers, compared to pre-Covid 2019. The main driver behind these impressive returns continue to be the contributions of Emirates and flydubai who between them fly to more than two hundred and sixty-five destinations. London Heathrow and Seoul International came in behind DXB, with 48.36 million and 41.63 million, followed by Singapore Changi, Amsterdam, Istanbul, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt International and Hong Kong International. Meanwhile Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport was the busiest global airport in 2024 with 62.7 million seats, with DXB second, followed by Tokyo International, London Heathrow, Dallas/Fort Worth International, Denver International, Guangzhou Baiyun, Istanbul, Shanghai Pudong International and Chicago O’Hare International.

The latest survey from AirlineRatings.com places Emirates a joint third spot on the 2025 list of the world’s safest full-service airlines. EK shared the position with Qatar Airways and Cathay Pacific, with the three carriers behind Air New Zealand and Qantas but ahead of Virgin Australia and Etihad. The leading three low-cost airlines were Hong Kong Express, Jetstar Group and Ryanair, with flydubai coming in eleventh. The airline safety and product rating website monitors a total of three hundred and eighty-five full-service and budget carriers. The firm uses several measures when polling that include, including serious incidents over the past two years, fleet age and size, incident rates, fatalities, profitability, IOSA certification, ICAO audit compliance, and pilot training.

This week, Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, reiterated that the country will continue to advance ambitious renewable energy projects, in tandem with both the UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and the National Hydrogen Strategy 2050. He noted the UAE’s leading position in clean and renewable energy, emphasising its crucial role in stabilising global energy markets and driving sustainable development through significant domestic energy investments. He also indicated that electric vehicle infrastructure will be expanded, including the implementation of a national policy to encourage the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles; this will include fast and regular charging services and investing in the necessary infrastructure.

To date, the CEPA programme, which was launched in September 2021, has concluded agreements with countries in the ME, Africa, SE Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe, securing improved trade relations and access to markets encompassing nearly 25% of the world’s population. (The UAE’s CEPA programme is a key pillar of the nation’s growth strategy, which targets US$ 1 trillion in total trade value and aims to double the size of the wider economy to surpass US$ 800 billion by 2031). This week, there were three Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements signed, with the UAE, by Kenya, New Zealand and Malaysia. All three agreements are aimed to deepen trade and investment ties, strengthen supply chains, and enhance market access. In the first nine months of 2024, bilateral trade, with the three nations, topped US$ 3.1 billion, (up 29.1% on the year), US$ 642 million, (8.0% higher) and US$ 4.0 billion.

Malaysia, SE Asia’s fourth-largest economy, is already one of the UAE’s top trading partners in the ASEAN region, with non-oil bilateral trade reaching US$ 4.9 billion in 2023 and US$ 4 billion in the first nine months of 2024. The UAE is also Malaysia’s second-largest trade partner in the Arab world, accounting for 32% of Malaysia’s trade with Arab nations. Kenya’s economy posted real GDP growth of 5.6% in 2023, with estimates it will average 5.2% between 2024 to 2026; its services sector accounts for 53.6% of its GDP, and agriculture sector 25%. New Zealand will provide 100% duty-free access to UAE imports, while the UAE will grant duty-free access to 98.5% of New Zealand products. Bilateral trade is expected to more than triple to US$ 5.0 billion, compared to the 2019 – 2023 average of US$ 1.5 billion.

With investments from both the public and private sectors – and in tandem with the “Operation 300 Billion” initiative – the move to raise US$ 81.74 billion (AED 300 billion) is gaining traction. In the nine months to 30 September 2024, banks operating in the UAE injected US$ 1.50 billion, (AED5.53 billion), in funding for the manufacturing sector bringing the total loans to the sector to a historic peak of US$ 25.84 billion, (AED94.85 billion) – equating to 31.61% of the ambitious target. Funding is being used to build a diversified and resilient national economy, characterised by sustainability, innovation, and long-term economic prosperity.

Last Sunday saw the opening of a 300 mt bridge providing a direct route to the Mall of the Emirates, in a collaboration between the Roads and Transport Authority and Majid Al Futtaim Holding; this development is part of a wider US$ 45 million project aimed at improving traffic flow and upgrading the road infrastructure around MAF’s MOE. It will see travelling time almost halved to eight minutes for drivers travelling west from Umm Suqeim Street to Sheikh Zayed Road Southbound and will also reduce travel times for motorists coming from Jebel Ali or Abu Dhabi.

The main driver behind a surging rise in school enrolments, (at up to 20% in some schools), is the influx of new families to the emirate. GEMS, which operates thirteen schools in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has seen enrolments in its premium schools up 4.0% last year and expects that by the new scholastic year, in September, it will register a 6.5% rise.; fees range from US$ 10k to US$ 33k. Certain GEMS schools report that their enrolment have increased by almost 35%, with students in the queue for admissions. Taaleem, with twelve premium schools, posted a 14.8% annual jump in revenue and indicated that “enrolment in premium schools also rose by 18.7% over the same period. Its chairman, Khalid Al Tayer noted that, “we have successfully completed two major acquisitions, extending our reach into both established and new curricula — an achievement that has boosted our premium school capacity by 28.0% on the year to 21.6k seats, and raised our total capacity by 32.7% to 54,.1k seats across Taaleem’s segments.” It expects to add a further 6k places over the next two years.

During a visit to Mexico, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade met with senior officials to discuss boosting bilateral trade and investment relations, with a focus on fostering partnerships between their private sectors. One of the main items on the agenda was ways to further increase bilateral non-oil trade, which had grown, in 2023, by 20.8% to US$ 2.60 billion. The Minister also indicated the need for deeper economic integration, with a focus on strengthening private-sector partnerships and enhancing supply chains, whilst identifyng sectors of mutual interest, such as agriculture, infrastructure and tourism.

Last Wednesday, the Dubai Court of Cassation awarded Drake and Scull International a ruling that its former CEO, Khaldoun Rashid Tabari, (along with its former CEO, Saleh Muraweij), had to pay the company US$ 41 million as “compensation for the material and moral damages”. Furthermore, there will be 5% legal interest from the date the judgment becomes final until full payment is made. The decision is final, and no appeals can be made. DSI shares rose 1.38% on the day at the opening of the markets on Wednesday, trading at US$ 0.099 per share and becoming the most active stock in the early trade.

There are reports that Emaar Properties are in discussions with “a few groups” in India, including Adani Group, to sell a stake of its Indian business. The developer commented that the valuation and other terms of a potential deal were not finalised, without adding further details. The Dubai property giant started its Indian operations two decades ago, in 2005, and has a portfolio of residential and commercial properties in Gurugram, Mohali, Lucknow, Jaipur and Indore.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 13 January, three hundred and ninety-eight points (8.2%) higher the previous four weeks, shed twenty-six points (0.5%), to close the trading week on 5,212 points by Friday 17 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.09 higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 0.05, closing on US$ 3.49 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.77, US$ 5.87 US$ 1.98 and US$ 0.43 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.06, US$ 1.99 and US$ 0.42. On 17 January, trading was at two hundred and fourteen million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-one million dollars, compared to two hundred and three million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-three million dollars, on 10 January.

By Friday, 17 January 2025, Brent, US$ 6.65 higher (9.1%) the previous three weeks, gained US$ 1.30 (1.6%) to close on US$ 80.89. Gold, US$ 34 (1.3%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 68 (2.5%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,687 on 17 January 2025.

BP has announced it is shedding 4.7k global jobs, as well as cutting 3.0k contractor roles, as part of its plan to slash costs by at least US$ 2.0 billion over the next two years; its current workforce stands at 90k. The plan is also aimed at enhancing its share value which has slipped some 20% since the beginning of Q2 2024. The energy giant employs some 14k in the UK, of which 6k of these are based in petrol and service stations and will not be affected by the cuts.

Driven by rising fuel costs and inflationary pressure and, stronger global demand, online travel agency Musafir expects airfares to rise between 2% and 14% globally in 2025. Global aviation consultancy OAG said average airfares are unlikely to fall this year, despite the price of oil falling to one of its lowest levels since September 2018, attributable to other factors such as shortage of planes, rising operational costs, and a strong US dollar. The International Air Transport Association has noted that annual aircraft deliveries have fallen sharply, by 30.4% from the 2018 peak of 1.81k aircraft in 2018, .to 1.25k last year. The world body also posted that the backlog of new aircraft stands at a record high 17k – a number that would take fourteen years to clear.

Embattled Boeing posted its worst ever plane deliveries in 2024 – at only three hundred and forty-eight planes – while the aerospace giant has a backlog of 5.6k, which would take seventeen years to clear, based on last year’s returns. Meanwhile, its biggest rival turned out more than double that number, with seven hundred and sixty-six jets. Boeing continue to sing from the same hymn sheet adding that there was “work underway” to improve its culture, and to “restore trust and deliver for our customers”. 2024 was the year that started with a panel, fitted over an unused emergency exit door, falling off a brand new 737 Max, shortly after take-off, serious quality control issues, (both internally and externally), the government capping its 737-production quota and a damaging strike at its Washington factory. A FAA enquiry found “multiple instances” where both companies had failed to meet required standards.

Hino Motors has been banned from exporting its diesel engines to the US for the next five years and has been fined US$ 1.6 billion for deceiving US regulators about the amount of emissions produced by its diesel engines. The Toyota subsidiary had been charged with fraud for selling 105k illegal engines in the US between 2010 and 2022. FBI Director, Christopher Wray, commented that it had been “in a years-long scheme to alter and fabricate emissions data in order to get a leg up over its competitors and boost their bottom-line,” and “to further this fraudulent scheme, Hino violated laws and regulations intended to protect American’s health and the environment.” Hino is not the only car manufacturer to get caught by dieselgate – one being VW, (including Audi, Porsche, Seat and Skoda) that has spent more almost US$ 31.0 billion) in fines, issuing recalls and compensating its customers.

Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has sent a warning memo to the 72k staff that the firm will cut about 5% of its global workforce, as the company looks to drop “low performers faster”. Those, working in the US and who are being retrenched, will know their destiny on 10 February, (others later), with Zuckerberg adding that the company would “backfill” the roles later in 2025. He also commented that “I’ve decided to raise the bar on performance management and move out low performers faster.”

An announcement by the US Food and Drug Administration sees the banning of the use of a synthetic dye, (known as red dye 3), typically added to foods and beverages to give them a bright, cherry-red hue. This comes after studies showed that it could be linked to cancer – and the US law stipulates that a ban is required if this happens. The dye is used primarily in candy, cakes, cookies, frozen desserts and frosting as well as some medicines.

In its updated World Economic Outlook, released today, the IMF forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation, with the Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, noting that the US economy was doing “quite a bit better” than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.

A warning from the World Bank that the global economy is set to flatline this year, concerned about the impact  of Trump’s  tariffs  having a negative impact on trade; it expects growth to be at 2.7% which would its weakest return since 2019. According to the bank, the rate is enough for people to “live with” but not enough to enhance living standards in both richer and poorer countries. It is estimated that the world’s largest importer receives about US$ 1.28 trillion, (or 40% of US imports of US$ 3.20 trillion), from three countries – China, Mexico and Canada. The implementation of tariffs, which the new president will use to grow the US economy, protect jobs and raise tax revenues, could have dire global consequences and will slow economic growth. Apart from subsequent escalating trade tensions, the World Bank considers the double whammy of interest rates being kept higher for longer, and increased policy uncertainty, will dent business/consumer confidence and investment. It has calculated that the introduction of a 10% US tariff on all imports to the country would result in a 0.2% reduction in global economic growth – only if countries did not retaliate; if they did, the global economy could be hit harder. More worryingly, it added that “when you look over a longer time period, we think growth numbers will come down. That worries us.” Different countries have different strategies to boost their economic growth in a global economic slowdown. UK is looking at AI, US – to cut taxes and regulation, India – to expand manufacturing, and China – to increase consumer spending.

Potential UK buyers will be unhappy to hear that Spain is planning to impose a tax of up to 100% on the value of properties bought by non-resident, non-EU foreigners-residents from countries outside the EU, with PM Pedro Sanchez, noting that the “unprecedented” measure was necessary to meet the country’s housing emergency. (In Spain, people are classed as non-residents if they live in the country for less than one hundred and eighty-three days in a single year). This comes after 27k non-EU buyers bought properties, with Sanchez claiming that they bought “not to live in” but “to make money from them”. The new law would prioritise available homes for residents, and includes, “the tax burden that they will have to pay in case of purchase will be increased up to 100% of the value of the property, in line with countries such as Denmark and Canada.” Data reveals that, in 2023, the total number of sales to foreigners, including people from inside the EU, makes up around 15% of the Spanish housing market – or 87k out of 583k sales. The government has already abolished the “golden visa” scheme and also looking at tighter regulation and higher taxed for holiday flats.

With 90% of cars sold in Norway, being electric, last year, it is undoubtedly the world leader when it comes to the take up of EVs. The country has adopted the move away from fossil fuel vehicles faster than any other country and will inevitably be the first to phase out the sale of new fossil fuel cars. In 2023, 82.4% of vehicles sold were electric, rising to 88.9% in 2024, during which, for the first time, the number of electric cars outnumbered those powered by petrol; if diesel vehicles are included, electric cars account for almost 33% of all on Norwegian roads. The UK and US trail far behind boasting 20.0% and 8.0% of new 2024 registrations being electric. By comparison, the EU plans to ban sales of new fossil-fuel cars by 2035. Sometime this year, Norway aims for all new cars sold to be “zero emission”. The country has prepared well over the past three decades, with government action, not directly penalising fuel fossil vehicles, but scrapping, VAT and import duties for low-emission cars, along with a string of perks, like free parking, discounted road tolls and access to bus lanes. Unlike the US and EU, Norway has not imposed tariffs on Chinese EV imports.

Over recent weeks, the Indian rupee has plunged to record lows, touching 23.689 per dirham or 85.97 to the US dollar, and there are some who see the currency deteriorating to as low to 90.0 in H2. There are rumours that the RBI may well start loosening its tight grip on the currency, under its new Governor Sanjay Malhotra, following a period where the currency was effectively fixed to a crawling peg against the dollar. The decline has been driven by many factors, apart from an intransient governor; and they include persistent foreign institutional investor outflows, robust dollar demand, a surge in energy prices and rising US Treasury yields. The Indian economy is reliant on imports and obviously the weaker the currency the more expensive imports become; Dubai Indian expatriates will be happy to see their remittances provides more rupees, and it also presents an opportunity for exporters.  The central bank has a problem when it comes to interest rates – if they are lowered too quickly, it may have a negative impact on the currency going even lower. It has also seen foreign exchange reserves fall around 10% in Q4 to US$ 704.89 billion, as the RBI tried to suppress currency volatility by controlling the rupee’s exchange rate with the dollar.

Latest US jobs growth figures continue to surprise the market, with December job gains totalling 256k, when the market was expecting the figure to be in the region of 160k – an indicator that the economy is stronger than excepted- with the unemployment dipping 0.1%, on the month, to 4.1%. Although the 2024 new job figures total of 2.2 million jobs was lower than the previous year, it is still a robust return, considering the state of the global economy. December hourly pay was 3.9% higher on the year – a figure that sits comfortably with many analysts and that does not point to any sudden rises in prices. The figures also indicate that there may not be too many rate cuts, as initially thought, with signs of weakness in the jobs market being eroded. Indeed, the market has been pointing to a slowdown in the expectation of rates moving lower, as progress on stabilising prices was stalling. But come the arrival of Donald Trump next week, anything can happen! There is also the knock-on impact on global rates, as higher US borrowing costs also mean higher global rates too; the Starmer administration will not be too happy to see UK gilts continuing to head north.

It is safe to say that Tulip Siddiq was in deep political trouble, but it seemed that she – and her North London neighbour Keir Starmer – did not think so. The anti-corruption minister had done her best to distance herself from her aunt, deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, claiming they never spoke about politics. However, she had been on record, boasting how close they were politically and published photos of them together, and wrote: in 2009, “I was fortunate enough to travel with Sheikh Hasina in her car during election day”. By Tuesday, the lady in charge of ethics for the UK  government had departed.

A sure indicator that Rachel Reeves is skating on thin ice – and hanging on to her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer – is that PM Keir Starmer has said he has “full confidence” in her, as she faces criticism over the falling pound and rising government borrowing costs. Sterling fell to a fourteen-month low to US$ 1.21 on Monday, whilst government borrowing costs  hit its highest level since 2008. Rising borrowing costs point to the government having to spend more on interest costs to finance the surging public debt, with the trade-off being a combination of higher taxes, as well as less to spend on public services and investment. The yield on the ten-year gilt – the interest rate at which the government pays back a decade-long loan to investors – rose to 4.86% on Monday, its highest level for seventeen years, with the thirty-year gilt yield jumping to 5.42%, its highest since 1998.

At last, the Starmer government has received some good news, and that being UK inflation unexpectedly dipping in December, by 0.1%, on the month, to 2.5%, but still above the BoE 2.0% target; the decline was down to hotel prices falling and smaller than normal rises in airfares. Prices for tobacco products, which include cigarettes, pouches, vape refills and cigars, also increased at a slower pace, whilst the cost of fuel and second-hand cars, headed north. The chance of a February rate cut, from its current 4.75%, has risen with the news. Debt costs in the UK then fell further after figures in the US revealed core inflation had fallen more than expected, though the headline US inflation figure rose  On average, prices in December were up 0.2%, on the month, to 2.9%. It is unlikely that there will be any change by The Fed next month, with interest rates remaining at 4.3%.

The London Stock Exchange is in dire need of seeing more companies joining the bourse, having lost several big hitters moving from London to New York, where there is more liquidity and bigger companies. It could now find itself in a quandary and may lose the chance of hooking the Chinese fast-fashion retailer Shein. Liam Byrne, chair of the Business and Trade Committee, wrote to the bourse’s CEO, Julia Hoggett, asking if the stock market had tests in place to “authenticate statements” by firms seeking to list, “with particular regard to their safeguards against the use of forced labour in their products”; he also relayed the MP’s concern “at the lack of candid and open answers”. There are reports that Shein has filed initial paperwork to list in the UK, which could value it at US$ 66 billion – which would boost LSE’s profile and finances, as well as attracting potential new listed companies to London.

With sterling weak, most shares of international FTSE 100 companies have become cheaper and this has helped the London bourse to attain a record intraday trading high today, 17 January. Almost all ninety of the index constituents traded higher, with shares in gambling giant Entain, the owner of Coral and Ladbrokes, up 4.60%, and British aerospace multinational Smiths Group, up 4.31%. It closed the week at a record high of 8,505.

If people thought that the UK was in an economic mess, they should look over The Channel and see the problems facing Germany. For the past two years, its economy has contracted by 0.3%, in 2023 and 0.2% last year. Latest estimates from its Federal Statistics Office indicate that in Q4, the economy contracted, with most economists having expected a modest expansion. If these figures turn out to be correct, the country would be suffering its worst bout of economic stagnation since World War II. The news could not come at a worse time for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with an election just six weeks away. The bad news is that the economy will not get any better after the election, whoever wins, as it has been badly impacted by global factors for some years. Its manufacturing sector has been hit disproportionately by the surge in energy prices since the start of the Ukraine war. On top of that the big three carmakers – Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW – were already facing high capital costs because of the move to EVs, further exacerbated by the heavily subsidised Chinese EV makers being able to undercut them on price – both in their home market and overseas. Manufacturing has yet to fully recover from the pandemic lockdown and has been beset by high costs which has seen the country’s November 2024 industrial production 15% lower than the record high achieved in 2017. Furthermore, weak consumer spending has not helped the economy.

The canary in the German coal mine is what will happen after next Monday when Donald Trump enters the White House for his second term as US president. Germany will be in his sights, and an obvious target when it comes to tariffs, especially when he sees that YTD November 2024, its trade surplus with the US was at a record US$ 66.85 billion. Any tariffs will harm the fragile German economy, and all indicators point to a third consecutive year of recession. Even the bullish and over optimistic Bundesbank has amended its 2025 forecast from 1.1% to 0.2%. In the current economic doldrums, it seems that German voters will either move to the right Alternative fur Deutschland or to the left’s Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht. Whichever way they go, it is the end of the road for the Current German Chancellor Olas Scholz – Auf Wiedersehen Pet!

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A Change Is Gonna Come!

Posted on January 12, 2025 by howesdubai

A Change Is Gonna Come!                                                           10 January 2025

The country’s four major emirates posted impressive real estate results in 2024 – with 331.3k transactions valued at US$ 243.32 billion; the fifty thousand plus mortgage transactions, (excluding Ajman) totalled US$ 62.48 billion. Dubai is the obvious leader of the four emirates, with Abu Dhabi posting 25.0k sales and mortgage transactions, valued at US$ 21.61 billion, as Sharjah registered 78.6k total sales transactions, valued at US$ 9.92 billion, with 4k mortgage transactions, totalling US$ 2.59 billion. No 2024 records were available for Ajman, but the previous year saw it register 11.5k transactions, worth US$ 4.60 billion, and by the end of October, there had been some 12.7k transactions worth US$ 4.46 billion.

However, Dubai was streets ahead with another record year with 226k transactions, valued at US$ 207.28 billion. Dubai Land Department estimated that there were 180k sales transactions, totalling US$ 142.23 billion, with 35k mortgage transactions with a value of US$ 50.95 billion. However, it is to be noted that last month, property prices dipped for the first time in two years, albeit by 0.1% to US$ 510k, with the same happening all over the country.

Espace estimates that six of their top ten buyer nationalities are Western European and from that four of the countries rank among the top ten globally for national GDP; many of these new residents are in the market to buy. The consultancy noted that Dubai’s growing reputation, as a magnet for global wealth, is “reflected by the number of European buyers who are drawn by the city’s exceptional lifestyle, safety and strong returns on capital investment”. The report projects further population growth, (which is a taken), alongside new property supply in the pipeline.

The latest report by Espace points to Dubai residential real estate sales in Dubai rising by an annual 31% to US$ 63.21 billion. This was split between the primary and secondary sectors – 61.4k at US$ 34.60 billion, up 74% and 32.5k, 15% higher. The off-plan sector – driven by an increased population – up 4.66%, (170k), to 3.825 million – saw its market share 4% higher at 65%, compared to H1’s 61%.

Of twenty villa communities tracked, average prices increased in all but one of them and for apartments ten of the eleven locations, driven by high demand and reduced availability.  Another factor was the increased investment by homeowners upgrading properties.

The Springs, Jumeirah Park and Town Square registered 26%, 23% and 21% increases whilst in the luxury sector Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai Hills and Jumeirah Islands saw 35%, 27% and 26% rises. Meanwhile newer communities, like Al Furjan (26% higher), were a magnet for buyers looking for value after being priced out of neighbouring communities. When it comes to apartments, there have been marked increases in transaction volumes and sales prices; for example, Emaar Beachfront saw a 34% hike in transaction volume, as buildings were handed over to new owners. It is estimated that JVC was home to twenty-four new projects in 2024, with the location posting a 28% increase in transactions, and that twenty-four new projects were completed in JVC last year. In 2024, it was the top-performing location for off-plan developer sales, achieved with sales of US$ 3.0 billion from 11.2k transactions, with an average transaction value of US$ 267k. JVC ranked as the top-performing area for ready property developer sales in 2024, with a total sales volume of Dh1.2 billion from 1,183 transactions, averaging Dh1.01 million per transaction.

The quadruple HOLA whammy, of high rental prices, ongoing population growth, limited supply and affordable mortgage products, is driving those who can afford the entry costs, to move into the market. When it comes to returns, Al Barari, (for villas) and Green Community (apartments) recorded the highest RoIs at 7.39% and 8.48% respectively. When it comes to affordable property, rents were 48% higher, in some cases, with increase reported for 2-bedroom flats in Deira. Other popular areas for affordable rentals included Bur Dubai for apartments, and Damac Hills 2 and Mirdif for villas.

dubizzle rated Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai and Palm Jumeirah as the top three leading areas for buying luxury apartments in Dubai for 2024. Dubai Marina continues to be the leading choice for buying and renting luxury apartments, as the average sales price has reached US$ 695k, while annual rent is nearing US$ 40k. In the villa sector, the standout location is Dubai Hills Estate, with a sales price of US$ 4.38 million, whilst Al Barsha is the top choice, with an average rent of US$ 119k.

Affordable areas saw the most significant rise in rental prices last year, attributable to increased demand from tenants seeking budget-friendly options due to a broader rent surge; at the same time, it provides investors with robust returns and capital appreciation. Bayut estimates that rents for affordable apartments have risen by up to 48%,, with the largest increase reported for two-bedroom flats in Deira. The more popular locations, in relation to affordability, for apartments is Bur Dubai, along with Damac Hills 2 and Mirdif for villas. In the villa market, Dubai Industrial City, International City, and Damac Hills 2 led the affordable segment, with RoIs exceeding 6.0%. Bayut’s data also indicated that the highest rental yields, in this sector for apartments were in Dubai Investments Park, Discovery Gardens and Liwan, with 2024 yields, ranging from 9.0% to 11.0%.

In the mid-tier market, Living Legends, Motor City, and Al Furjan posted RoIs above 8.7%. Mid-tier villa communities, such as JVC, Al Furjan and Jumeirah Village Triangle saw returns between 6.0% and 8.0%. Luxury villa communities including The Sustainable City, Al Barari and Tilal Al Ghaf recorded RoIs exceeding 6.0%. Luxury apartments in Al Sufouh, Green Community and Al Barari have reported rental yields between 7.0% and 9.0%. When it comes to returns, Al Barari, (for villas) and Green Community (apartments) recorded the highest RoIs at 7.39% and 8.48% respectively.

Last Tuesday, Prescott Development unveiled its latest residential masterpiece, Verano by Prescott – this is their thirteenth project exclusively presented by Golden Bridge, its sales and marketing partner. The project, located in Dubai Studio City, will comprise two hundred and fifty-eight premium apartments, including studio, one, two, and three-bedroom options. Verano by Prescott also boasts over thirty-four ultra-luxurious amenities, alongside a suite of premium services, including twenty-four-hour concierge, valet parking, and round-the-clock security. Starting prices for studios will be at US$ 177k, with flexible payment plans, including a 60/40 option; handover is slated Q3 2027.

Earlier in the month, Harish Fabiani bought the Thuraya Telecommunications Tower in Barsha, with 143k sq ft of office and retail space, for US$ 44 million and plans further capex of US$ 11 million on upgrades.  Days later, the founder of Indialnd Group, who already has a real estate portfolio in India, valued at over US$ 500 million, acquired 45k sq ft of office space at the upscale Burj Daman high-rise in DIFC, which is expected to generate over US$ 5 million in annual rentals.

The Indian landlord was positive that this sector, noting that “so, (those) rents will increase substantially over the next year, so we will not miss out on incremental rentals that the Dubai office market is witnessing, and “This demand will sustain”. He is not the only landlord with similar feelings with the likes of Aldar, who last month invested US$ 627 million buy of an under-development commercial tower in DIFC from H&H, and The Tecom Group acquiring an office cluster in Dubai Internet City for US$ 196 million, from the operator of the Emirates REIT fund.

Last year, the London-listed luxury property developer, Dar Global, unveiled ten major projects, valued in excess of US$ 1.9 billion, in locations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, RAK and Spain. In Dubai, it is developing a new, upscale residential community called Dar Global Villas at Jumeirah Golf Estates which it promises will redefine luxury living in Dubai, offering a selection of opulent villas.

Direct from Donald Trump’s main residence, Dubai-based property magnate and founder of Damac, Hussain Sajwani, (along with the President-elect), announced that “leveraging our expertise in real estate and data centres, we aim to deliver best-in-class infrastructure that supports the next wave of cloud and AI growth, helping further position the US in the technology and global data ecosystem,” and that. “we’re planning to invest US$ 20 billion and even more than that, if the opportunity in the market allows us.” Just days before Tuesday’s announcement, the Damac chief was seen in the company of Trump and Elon Musk. Damac owns the ME’s only Trump-branded golf course, Dubai, which opened in 2017, and has operations in over twenty countries. To date, the developer has delivered over 45k luxury units, with a further 45k in the pipeline, and has also expanded in recent years in data centres, now found in ten countries.

For the second consecutive year, it is reported that Dubai-based Sobha Realty has awarded a special US$ 41 million bonus programme to all its staff. Ravi Menon, Chairman of Sobha Group, said, “This special bonus is our way of expressing gratitude for the resilience our employees have shown, especially pushing boundaries in the past year and making a meaningful difference.” In December, the developer announced its plans to deliver its Creek Vistas Grande development ahead of schedule.

There is no doubt that the Dubai Land Department’s recently introduced smart Rental Index has given tenants a better way to negotiate a fairer rent than in the past. The index links property ratings to rental valuations, based on a five-star rating, and the use of more than sixty criteria. It also ensures that landlords upgrade older buildings before they can move rents higher; buildings in the same area will be able to charge different rents according to the condition of the structure and amenities provided. Khalid Al Shaibani, director of the Rental Affairs Department at DLD, commented that no longer will rents be arbitrary, as it now considers various factors, including the average rent in areas, infrastructure, condition of buildings, and existing rental contracts.  Basically, if a building is in good condition, it will receive a higher rating, but it does not seem to account for a well-maintained unit in an older building.

2025 is a significant year for both Jebel Ali Port, celebrating its forty-fifth anniversary and Jebel Ali Freezone its fortieth. This month, DP World reached a historic milestone, surpassing one hundred million TEUs of container handling capacity across its global portfolio since inception. Growth over the past decade has been significant, with investments totalling US$ 11.0 billion in strategic investments and infrastructure development, that has helped DP World to be a leading player in global trade. During that period, its capacity has grown 33%, driven primarily by expansions, new greenfield developments and acquisitions. Last year, its global gross container handling capacity increased by 5%, helping DP World to a 9.2% share of the global container market, with global container throughput expected to grow by 2.8% this year.

The Majid Al Futtaim Group, which owns and operates the retail brand Carrefour across multiple countries in the region, closed its operations in Oman earlier this week. By Thursday,, it announced the launch of a new grocery retail brand HyperMax in Oman, with eleven outlets in that country eleven locations. It expects that this will create 2k direct and indirect jobs in Oman, with the group saying it is “leveraging its existing asset network in Oman” for HyperMax.


Japan’s Mori Memorial Foundation’s Institute for Urban Strategies has ranked Dubai, for the second year in a row, the eighth globally – and first regionally – in their Global Power City Index 2024.  Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid, commented “Dubai’s high ranking on global indices shows that we are not just keeping pace with the world, we are setting new benchmarks for excellence,” and that “the city’s remarkable performance in global indices has been driven by HH Sheikh Mohammed’s’ visionary leadership and the commitment of its talented people and trusted partners.”

According to Jamal Bin Saif Al Jarwan, Secretary-General of the UAE International Investors Council, the total value of overseas Emirati investments was estimated at an incredible US$ 2.5 trillion; this includes both public and private sectors and the value was at the beginning of last year. Unsurprisingly, the US and other Western countries were some of the major destinations.

There are nearly 24k drones registered in the UAE, as listed by the General Civil Aviation Authority, since the personal drone ban was recently lifted; a total of ninety-three companies have been registered and two hundred and seventy individual applications have been received to date. The GCCA clarified that the UAE Drones Unified Platform is an interactive platform designed to register and regulate drone operations, provide information on usage requirements, and ensure compliance with laws and procedures. Users have to ensure that the areas for flying are permitted and that the remote identification system is available on the UAV.

Last year, the country’s air traffic grew by 10.3% on the year, (and 20% plus over two years), with its aviation sector posting a record one million air movements, as EK 305 to Shanghai, on 22 December, took the number into seven digits. Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Chairman of GCAA, posted that “the UAE has implemented innovative national initiatives and strategies to enhance its competitiveness and prominence in the civil aviation and air services sector, both regionally and globally. Achieving the milestone of one million air traffic movements in a single year is not a mere numerical achievement but a reflection of the UAE’s steadfast commitment to developing the aviation sector as a cornerstone of its national economy and solidifying its position as a global air transport destination.”

Last Friday witnessed the inaugural flight for Emirates of its first ever Airbus 350, with Edinburgh being the destination. Rather belatedly, the airline expects  the delivery of a further sixty-four A350s in the coming years. The plane is being reconfigured, providing three hundred and twenty-two seats two hundred and fifty-nine, in Economy, twenty-one in Premium Economy and thirty-two in Business Class lie-flat seats. During Q1, A350s will start flying to Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Kuwait, Bahrain, Colombo, Lyon, Muscat, and Bologna.

Mashreq has divested part of its minority stake in the digital payments enabler, Neopay, to a consortium of two companies, Türkiye’s DgPays and the Bahraini alternative investment firm, Arcapita Group Holdings Limited. The Dubai-based bank confirmed that it “retains a significant minority stake in Neopay, underscoring its commitment to supporting the company’s continued growth.” Launched in March 2022, the business has processed more than four hundred million transactions and is used by over 10k merchants in the country.

The latest report by Henley & Partners places the UAE in tenth position in the world when it comes to measure the strength of its passport, along with the likes of Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia. The UAE passport in 2025 allows nationals visa-free access and visa-on-arrival to one hundred and eighty-five countries, rising one position from last year, having risen from a fifteenth placing in 2022 and thirty-eighth in 2017. The UAE compares favourably with other Gulf nations with Qatar, Kuwait, Bahraain, Saudi Arabia and Oman ranked forty-seventh, fiftieth, fifty-eighth, fifty-eighth and fifty-ninth. The index includes one hundred and ninety-nine different passports and two hundred and twenty-seven, with six nations – different travel destinations. Singapore’s passport remains the strongest, followed by Japan, with Finland, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea and Spain coming in third.

December’s S&P Global’s PMI indicated that the UAE non-oil private sector expanded, by 1.2 to 55.4 – its fastest pace in nine months – down to strong demand and increased business activity; Dubai’s PMI also grew at its quickest since April 2024. Notably, strong demand pushed the new orders subindex higher by 1.3 to 59.3 from 58.0, but the other side of the equation sees export demand growth declining to seven-month low. The fact that backlogs continued to expand driving capacity levels remaining under considerable stress. There was no better news for recruitment which barely changed on the month, after November’s return posted a thirty-one month low; this could have impacted companies’ confidence in future business activity remained muted in December, with both factors softening margins. Input prices were also at their lowest in nine months whilst purchasing was at a thirteen-month high growth which may give a boost to help lift inventory levels., which could help to lift inventories after a subdued trend in the second half of 2024.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 05 January, three hundred and eight points (6.4%) higher the previous three weeks, gained ninety points (1.7%), to close the trading week on 5,238 points by Friday 10 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.06 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.09, closing on US$ 3.54 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.78, US$ 5.61 US$ 1.91 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.77, US$ 5.87, US$ 1.98 and US$ 0.43. On 10 January, trading was at two hundred and three million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-three million dollars, compared to two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of one hundred and forty-seven million dollars, on 03 January.

By Friday, 10 January 2025, Brent, US$ 3.65 higher (5.0%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 3.00 (3.9%) to close on US$ 79.59. Gold, US$ 1 (.0%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 34 (1.3%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,687 on 10 January 2025.

To meet the increased demand for bespoke models off its luxury Rolls Royce cars, the company is planning a US$ 370 million investment to expand its Goodwood factory and global headquarters. Whether RR will continue to make cars, with combustion engines, for their overseas clientele remains to be seen, but it will continue its investment to replace its conventional cars to electric vehicles by 2030.  Last year, it saw production down 5.3%, to 5.7k cars, although revenue was higher because of the sale of more bespoke builds. It is rumoured that the price of its Ghost saloon starts at US$ 309k with its Cullinan sports utility vehicle and electric Spectre models starting at around US$ 420k. In 2023, the carmaker came under full control of German carmaker BMW  and officially opened its Goodwood site in West Sussex the same year. The firm employs some 10k in the UK, with currently more than 2.5k working on the site.

President Joe Biden is surely leaving the White House with all guns blazing and since the start of the year, he has announced a ban of new offshore oil and gas development across two hundred and fifty hectares of stretches of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, he has left the possibility open for new oil and natural gas leasing in the central and western areas of the Gulf of Mexico, which account for around 14% of the country’s energy production.  It seems that the current incumbent has used the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, that gives a president wide leeway to bar drilling that would not allow President-elect Donald Trump, or other future presidents, to revoke the ban. Indeed, in 2017, the then President Trump tried unsuccessfully to overturn Arctic and Atlantic Ocean withdrawals Obama had made at the end of his presidency, but it was ruled in 2019 that the law does not give presidents the legal authority to overturn prior bans. He has also blocked the US$ 14.9 billion sale of US Steel to Japan’s Nippon Steel, citing a strategic need to protect domestic industry. Both steel companies are planning to take legal action against the government, claiming it failed to follow proper procedures during its consideration of the acquisition.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is taking another hit against the UK government commenting that it is making “a very big mistake” in its fossil fuel policy – and should “get rid of windmills”. This comes after another US oil producer – Apache – is to pull out of the North Sea partly due to the increase in windfall tax on fossil fuel producers; in the October budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised the energy price levy, (first introduced by former PM Rishi Sunak in 2022), from 25% to 38%. Even before the new government was elected, three companies, Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy, announced they were delaying production by a year of the Buchan oilfield.

In 2024, the five South Korean carmakers – Hyundai Motor, Kia, GM Korea, KG Mobility and Renault Korea Motors – managed to sell a record 450.2k of eco-friendly cars, driven by the popularity of hybrid models; this return was up 11.3% on the year. 88% of this total, 356.1k units, were for hybrid cars, with sales up 25% on the year, whilst sales of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles declined 21.2% to 91.4k units and 36.4% to 2.8k units in 2024.

Latest figures indicate that UK sales of recorded music hit an all-time high last year, with a spend of almost US$ 3.0 billion – 8.8% higher than the previous peak posted in 2021, at the height of CD sales. 6.7 million vinyl records were sold, growing by 10.5% and generating US$ 214 million, whilst CD sales remained flat at US$ 155 million.  No surprise to see Taylor Swift’s ‘The Tortured Poets Department’ become the biggest selling album in 2024, selling 784k copies; Noah Khan’s ‘Sick Season’ was the top selling single, with the equivalent of 1.99 million sales. 85% of the revenue was taken by subscription services such as Spotify, Amazon Music and Apple Music. However, despites this recent improvement, the industry is still way off figures from 2001 when, adjusted for inflation, the industry made the equivalent of US$ 4.92 billion.

Video game sales dipped 4.2% on the year to US$ 5.66 billion, not helped by the failures of Concord, Suicide Squad and Skull & Bones. In addition, there was a marked decline in the sale of boxed physical games, whose sales fell by 35%. Yet again, the biggest selling game of the year continued to be EA Sports FC 25 – formerly known as FIFA – which sold 2.9 million copies, 80% of them in digital formats. Worryingly, only four of the games in the top ten were new releases, with half of them being updates to existing franchises. Five of the top ten games were exclusive to Nintendo Switch.

As noted in last week’s blog, the London Stock Exchange is losing business and its position as one of the world’s more important bourses is declining; recently Ashtead, the FTSE-100 equipment rental company, decided to move its primary listing to New York where there is more liquidity and better valuations available. However, there was some good news at the beginning of the year that BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital, owners of Shawbrook Group, the mid-sized British lender, (which employs 1.6k and has 550k customers), were drawing up plans for a US$ 2.50 billion IPO. It is reported that a H1 issuance could take place, and if that were to occur it would become one of the largest companies to list in London. On top of that, there is ongoing speculation on whether online fashion giant, China’s Shein, will use LSM and if it were to go public, it would become one of the biggest ever to take place in London.

Australia’s housing market is in a downturn for the first time in almost two years after the average national price of a sold property, in December, dipped 0.1% to US$ 506k.The forecast is for a property price stabilisation in 2025, with values moving slowly down. An event that has not happened for some time is the fact that the country’s biggest cities are dragging down the national average; having taken a beating last year, Melbourne is now the third cheapest capital city in the country, behind second place Adelaide and Perth. Over the year, and despite the RBA holding rates, at 4.35% – their highest level in a decade, property prices were over 5.0% higher, with apartments rising by 3.6% and 5.2% for houses. Once interest rates start to come down, confidence will inevitably return to the sector and more buyers will be able to access extra funding. With house prices in some cities having risen by as much as 70%, it is patently obvious that an increasing number of potential buyers have been priced out the market; home loan borrowing capacity has come right down amid high interest rates.

Although HCOB’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a 1.3 increase on the month in December to 49.6, the eurozone economy ended the year in contraction territory. It appears that the headline index was impacted by a marked decline in factory activity, but this was boosted by the services sector, which posted a 1.1 hike to 51.6. This year, it seems that the latter will not suffer the consequences of any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, unlike manufacturers which will bear the brunt of them – this will continue to drag the eurozone economy down in 2025. Despite a rise in overall prices charged, as firms tried to recoup a sharper increase in input costs, demand nudged higher to 50.2 – just above the 50.0 threshold, differentiating between contraction and expansion. Because services inflation is still too high, it is almost inevitable that any rate cuts in Q1 will remain minimal. Furthermore, without all these problems, the bloc’s economy would also be hit by political turbulence throughout the eurozone.

A recent ECB study “suggests a relatively stable labour market looking ahead,” and expects the unemployment rate – currently at a record nadir of 6.3% – to remain relatively low in 2025. It appears that the euro zone labour market’s exceptional resilience is losing strength but any downturn will be slow, as firms continue to hire; the ECB noted that employment typically expands at about 50% the rate of real GDP growth but it has actually surpassed GDP growth since 2022.

The latest S&P Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index survey confirms what most already knew – that the October budget has impacted badly on the UK economy. The report was released almost at the same time as a warning from the British Chambers of Commerce that more than half of firms were planning to raise their prices. The PMI survey indicates that last month businesses shed jobs, (across the manufacturing and services sectors), at the fastest pace since January 2021, with business confidence is at its lowest level since the Truss September 2022 mini budget market meltdown and that worries about tax stood at levels not seen since 2017. Part of Labour’s election manifesto last year was based on an improved working relationship but that largely disappeared when Rachel Reeves introduced her budget which largely relied on businesses to bankroll most of her US$ 50 billion (GBP 40 billion) tax increases. The BCC survey found 55% of companies were planning to raise their own sales costs, to cover some of the extra costs arising from a 1.2% hike in employers’ National Insurance contributions, a rise in the National Living Wage increases from April and the fact that interest rates are not going down as quickly as expected. Furthermore, companies are also having to slash investment plans.

By Wednesday, sterling had slumped to its lowest level in nine months, (at 1.233 to the greenback), because of UK government borrowing continuing to head north and borrowing costs having surged to their highest level since the 2008 GFC financial crisis. Analysts are concerned that ongoing high borrowing costs have a good chance of further tax rises or cuts to public spending because of the need of the Starmer administration trying to meet its self-imposed borrowing target. The PM’s spokesman noted “I’m obviously not going to get ahead … it’s up to the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) to make their forecasts.” There is every possibility of Chancellor Rachel Reeves having to change course if she is looking at spending more on public services without raising taxes again or breaking her self-imposed fiscal rules. Many would agree that A Change Is Gonna Come!

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Bumpy Ride!

Posted on January 4, 2025 by howesdubai

Bumpy Ride!                                                                        03 January 2025

The four hundred and twenty-five metre tall Marina 101 project, (featuring one hundred and one floors floors), launched by Sheffield Real Estate, had been progressing well, especially in the boom years prior to the 2008 GFC. Since then, it has been beset by problems, including multiple project delays, cost issues, and even an auction (for the thirty-three floors of the hotel part of the construction, originally named as a Hard Rock Hotel). When the project was eventually 97% completed, the developer had run up a sizeable debt by which time, the banks, (the lead one being the Bank of Baroda), had become involved to try and recoup some of their project exposure. Now at the beginning of 2025, the wait is almost over, with some expecting the Real Estate Regulatory Agency to soon issue the final paperwork, including a building completion certificate, to finally open the tower for its investors. One outstanding point seems to be the status of the hotel and whether it will need further enhancements. However, Bayut continues to show apartment listings, including a one-bedroom at US$ 409k and a two-bedroom for US$ 736k.

Ajman-based GJ Properties Investments LLC posted a recent daily sales figure of US$ 150 million at its recent Ajman Sales Event; these included eight hundred and thirty-seven units sold across three new developments – Al Ameera Village, Nuaimia Two Tower and Ajman Creek Towers, with seven hundred and twenty-four units, sixty-three and fifty apartments respectively. On the back of its Ajman success, it has recently launched Biltmore Residences Sufouh in Dubai, located on Sheikh Zayed Road The luxury development, comprising a range of one- and two-bedroom apartments, along with a luxurious penthouse, is 62% completed and slated for a Q1 2026 handover.

A recent Cushman and Wakefield Core report indicated that, in Q3, Dubai property rents increased by 18% on the year – its fifteenth consecutive quarter of hikes; some of the highest premiums on new leases were seen in beachfront communities such as Palm Jumeirah and Bluewaters Island, attributable to their luxury lifestyle offerings and iconic locations. Other factors such as the requirement for larger spaces, central locations, gated communities and premium amenities have seen price hikes in locations such as Emirates Living, Dubai Hills Estate, and District One. The fact that such areas now have limited supply available – and high demand – will ensure that rents will continue to be well above the average. It is a fact of Dubai property life that most new supply will be found on the emirate’s outskirts and that those established communities, nearer the coast, will continue to charge higher premiums.

Another year, another record for Dubai realty, with 2024 posting an all-time peak of 180.9k transactions, (up 35.9%), worth US$ 112.02 billion, 27.0% higher on the year. The primary market registered a 30.0% surge to US$ 91.04 billion, with the transaction volume surging by 51% to 119.8k – sure indicators that robust demand continues for new developments and off-plan properties; the average price per sq ft, came in 10% higher at US$ 436. Exciting new project launches, along with favourable payment plans, were two main drivers behind the impressive 2024 returns; foreign investors were also attracted by residency incentives and visa reforms. There was a 21% hike in the secondary market, with a 21% increase in re-sales to US$ 51.25 billion, as  transaction volumes rose by 14%  to 61.1k; the average price per sq ft increased by an annual 12% to US$ 354. These returns showed that buyers were keen to move to established villas for immediate occupancy and investors in the market for high rental returns.

There were record apartment and villa sales during the  period – with the former posting a 42% climb in volume, with 141.2k transactions, valued at US$ 71.00 billion; villa sales were 21.1% higher, relating to 30.9k units selling for US$ 44.71 billion. Commercial sales posted much smaller increases, with transaction up 10.1% to 4.3k units, valued at US$ 2.64 billion; plot sales rose by 2.6% to 4.4k, worth US$ 2.64 billion.

Al Barsha South 4 was the top performing location registering 12.9k first sales whilst Business Bay was top when it came to sales value, with 6.9k transactions, worth US$ 5.75 billion. The popularity of areas such as Madinat Al Mataar and Wadi Al Safa 5 reflects the increased demand for community living in the outer suburbs. Other neighbourhoods that fall in the same category, of affordable properties, include the likes of Dubai South, Al Furjan and Jumeirah Village Circle all of which will continue to be in high demand

The driving factors behind the three-year surge in Dubai property are manifold, including its position of being an important global travel hub, its world-class infrastructure, progressive government-backed initiatives, favourable tax policies, economic stability, public safety, excellent amenities, attractive rental yields, investor protection measures, ease of doing business, thriving real estate sector etc etc. Even as we enter 2025, the impact of Expo2020, although dwindling, is still present and a driver in the record-breaking property sales. It is not only residential property that will offer impressive returns in 2025 – many investors forget there are other potential sectors, such as industrial, commercial, office, retail and short-term lets

Dubai Land Department has announced it will launch a new ‘Smart Rental Index’ this month, with its main aim to enhance transparency in the real estate market by providing accurate and current data. It will also further develop the booming realty sector by fostering trust and confidence among all stakeholders including landlords, tenants, and investors. It is hoped that the initiative will place Dubai as a global model for leveraging technology to serve the real estate sector and align with the Dubai Digital Strategy, the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, and the emirate’s future vision for achieving sustainability and excellence.

Although the last Real Estate Regulatory Authority’s Rental Index, in March, saw the gap between new leases and renewal rates narrow, Dubai tenants are still paying up to 30% more for new leases, compared to renewals. This trend of increasing tenant renewals will continue into 2025. A notable trend in Q3 was the continued increase in tenant renewals, which rose by 16.0%, whilst new leases are still trading at an average premium of 14% over renewals, with still high demand for new homes.

Last Saturday, the one hundred and seventeenth open auction, for exclusive vehicle number plates in Dubai, took place resulting in revenues of US$ 22.3 million – the highest ever amount achieved. The auction covered ninety premium numbers, featuring two, three, four, and five digits, spanning the codes AA, BB, K, O, T, U, V, W, X, Y, and Z. The Roads and Transport Authority held the event which saw plate BB55 reach US$ 1.72 million, with other high returns for AA21, BB100 and BB111 of US$ 1.68 million, US$ 1.36 million and US$ 1.15 million.

With exceptional sales in the last two months of 2024, Dubai Duty Free completed the year with record sales of US$ 2.16 billion; last month set an all-time monthly record with sales of US$ 225 million, driven by its forty-first anniversary celebrations on 20 December when it offered a 25% discount on a wide range of goods.  It is estimated that last year, there were 20.7 million sales transactions, with 55,137 million units of merchandise sold to 13.7 million customers. Online sales topped US$ 54 million, equating to 2.5% of total sales, whilst departure sales at US$ 1.951 billion accounted for 90.3% turnover, (up 0.84% on the year); arrival sales were 12.21% lower at US$ 147 million, accounting for 6.8% of total turnover.

Latest figures by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre show that the country’s economy grew 3.6% in H1, with the GDP reaching US$ 239.67 billion. Over the period, the non-oil sector, growing by 4.4%, led by the transportation, construction and ICT sectors, contributed over 75% of the UAE’s economy. In H1, the value of nominal GDP (at current prices) amounted to about US$ 267.30 billion, growing at 5.6%, while the value of non-oil GDP, (at current prices), was 6.8% higher during the same period to about US$ 204.09 billion. In October, the IMF amended the country’s 2024 growth forecast from its earlier April prediction of 4.2% to 5.1%, driven by strong growth in the non-oil sectors. Meanwhile, the International Institute of Finance also projected that the UAE GDP growth will lead the region in 2024 and 2025. The Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre has estimated that, in H1, transportation/storage, financial/insurance, construction/building, information/communications and hotel/restaurants activities grew by 8.4%, 7.6%, 7.3%, 5.3% and 5.1% respectively. Growth in the latter sector was helped by hotel revenues, increasing by 7.0% to US$ 6.70 billion, as guest numbers rose by 10.5% to 15.3 million.

More than eight years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. Last Wednesday, retail prices fixed at December’s prices – the first time that there were no monthly adjustments. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for January is as follows:

Super 98      US$ 0.711 from US$ 0.711     in Jan (flat)       down 7.4% YTD US$ 0.768     

Special 95   US$ 0.681 from US$ 0.681      in Jan (flat)       down 7.7% YTD  US$ 0.738         

E-plus 91     US$ 0.662 from US$ 0.662      in Jan (flat)      down 7.9% YTD   US$ 0.719

Diesel           US$ 0.730 from US$ 0.730      in Jan (flat)       down 10.6% YTD US$ 0.817

2024 was a boom year for the two local bourses, with the Dubai Financial Market surging, driven by a robust economy, foreign investments, and several IPOs; the result was the DFM’s market cap and trading volumes surged. By the end of the year, the combined market cap of the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets topped US$ 1.06 trillion, 7.0% higher on the year, with the DFM’s market cap, 31.9% higher at US$ 247.11 billion; its trading value came in on US$ 29.07 billion and total volume of shares at 51.85 billion.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 30 December, three hundred points (6.2%) higher the previous fortnight, gained eight points (0%), to close the trading week on 5,138 points by Friday 03 January 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.02 lower the previous week, shed US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 3.45 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.76, US$ 5.83 US$ 1.92 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.78, US$ 5.61, US$ 1.91 and US$ 0.41. On 03 January, trading was at two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty-seven million dollars, compared to two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ ninety-one million, on 27 December.  

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 31 December at 5,159 was 1,096 points (27.0%) higher in 2024. Emaar started the year with a 01 January 2024 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and has gained US$ 1.34, to close YTD at US$ 3.50. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the year on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed YTD at US$ 0.77, US$ 5.84, US$ 1.93 and US$ 0.41.

By Friday, 03 January 2025, Brent, US$ 1.23 higher (1.7%) the previous week, gained US$ 2.42 (3.3%) to close on US$ 76.59. Gold, US$ 27 (1.0%) higher the previous week, shed  US$ 1 (0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,653 on 03 January 2025.

Brent started the year on US$ 77.23 and shed US$ 2.42 (3.1%), to close 31 December 2024 on US$ 74.81. Meanwhile, the yellow metal opened 2024 trading at US$ 2,074 and gained US$ 550 (26.5%) to close the year on US$ 2,624.

After more than eighteen months of legal wrangling, Do Kwon will be extradited from Montenegro to the US to face fraud charges over the collapse of two digital tokens – TerraUSD and Luna. The South Korean cryptocurrency entrepreneur, and his company Terraform Labs, were involved in “orchestrating a multi-billion-dollar crypto asset securities fraud”, which sunk some US$ 40 billion from investors and rocked global crypto markets. It was alleged that Kwon repeatedly claimed that the tokens would increase in value, and misled investors about the stability of TerraUSD, which, despite billions in investment, went broke in May 2022, leading to panic and sell-offs in other major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin.

The Department of Justice announced that a US government fund created to help compensate victims of the late fraudster Bernard Madoff has made its final payment of US$ 131 million which will bring the grand total of US$ 4.30 billion being returned to 40.9k claimants. The MFV estimates it will have recovered nearly 94% of the victims’ proven losses when it completes its mission in 2025. The Wall Street financier, who died in prison in 2021, had been sentenced to a one-hundred-and-fifty-year sentence for a Ponzi scheme which graduated to being one of the biggest frauds ever seen. His Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities firm was set up in 1960 and became one of Wall Street’s largest market-makers over the ensuing forty-eight years, during which time he also served as chairman of the Nasdaq stock trading platform. Even though the firm was investigated eight times by the SEC, because of its exceptional returns, it only collapsed because of the impact of the 2008 GFC.

The future of TikTok, with over one hundred and seventy million US users, may be settled next month, with the court set to hear arguments in the case on 10 January. Last April, the US Congress voted to ban it, unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance sold the app to an American company by 19 January – one day before Donald Trump’s inauguration. In 2020, he had tried to block the app in the United States, and force its sale to a US company, but appears to have done a U-turn, with his lawyer commenting “President Trump takes no position on the underlying merits of this dispute. Instead, he respectfully requests that the Court consider staying the Act’s deadline for divestment of 19 January 2025, while it considers the merits of this case, thus permitting President Trump’s incoming administration the opportunity to pursue a political resolution of the questions at issue in the case.” Earlier in the month, when meeting TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, he noted that he had a “warm spot” for the app and that he favoured allowing TikTok to keep operating in the United States for at least a little while.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that, in the eleven months to 30 November, the combined profit of major industrial enterprises declined by an annual 4.7%, according to People’s Daily Online. Following three years of decline, the blue-chip CSI 300 Index, tracking the biggest companies listed in the cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 15.9%, despite the ongoing property crisis and continuing weak consumer confidence. Meanwhile, both the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index closed the year gaining 13.9% and 17.9%, (after two years and four years of declines). Banking stocks led the market gains, pushing 36% higher, with the four largest state banks attaining multi-year highs, along with the chip sector surging 54%. However, the year ended with indicators that China’s factory activity expansion slowed in December amid rising trade risks.

Last month, Pakistan saw consumer inflation rate dip 0.8%, on the month to its lowest point, at 4.1%, in nearly seven years – some good news for the country, as it tries to make some sort of economic recovery, aided by a September US$ 7 million IMF facility. The Finance Ministry posted that it expects annual 2024 inflation rate to hold in the range of 4% – 5%. The inflation level has markedly improved from the multi-decade high of 40% posted twenty months ago in May 2023; this has been attributed to a more stable currency, lower global commodity prices and improved supply chain.  Consumer prices nudged 0.1% on the month. Meanwhile the State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 bp to 13% last month, the fifth straight reduction since June, and down from the 22% mark at the beginning of 2024.

For the seventh consecutive month, in December, Türkiye’s annual inflation rate dipped to 44.38% – 2.69% lower on the month. The highest inflation rate was education – at 91.64% – and at the other end of the scale was transportation at 25.88%. The monthly consumer price index rose at the slowest pace since May 2023 at 1.03% in December, compared to 2.24% a month earlier. Over the twelve months, it fell by 20%.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that his country would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood” and had given the EU a year to prepare; now, to his word, Russian gas supplies to EU states via Ukraine have ended, after a five-year deal between Ukraine’s gas transit operator Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom expired. Russian gas can still transit to Hungary, as well as Turkiye and Serbia, through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. It is obvious that Russia has lost an important market, (estimated at a current level of US$ 5.2 billion), but its president, Vladimir Putin, says EU countries will suffer most; in 2021, Russian gas was 40% of EU gas imports – today it is less than 10%.

Still showing to be a healthy labour market and pointing to fewer layoffs at the end of the year, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-month low last week. There is no doubt that the market’s resilience is helping to stabilise the US economy. This and other recent data, including consumer spending, point the Federal Reserve considering fewer rate cuts in 2025, with the last 0.25% cut in December, pushing the benchmark overnight rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped 9k to a seasonally adjusted 211k – the lowest level since April. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 52k, to a seasonally adjusted 1.844 million, with the December unemployment rate expected to come in flat at 4.2%.

According to Nationwide, UK house prices rose by 4.7% last year, with it noting that property prices and housing market activity remained “remarkably resilient” despite affordability challenges facing buyers; by the end of 2024, the average UK home was valued at US$ 335k, still below the summer peaks of 2022. The building society found that terraced homes rose fastest during the year and that Northern Ireland saw the fastest price growth, with values also rising faster in northern England than in the south. It also noted that house prices remained high relative to average earnings at the start of 2024, which meant that raising a deposit was  becoming harder for prospective first-time buyers.

A letter – signed by PM Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary – has been sent to more than ten of the UK’s leading watchdogs giving them no more than three weeks to submit a range of pro-growth initiatives to Downing Street – and submit five ideas on the best way to achieve this target. Those, including the leaders of Ofgem, Ofwat, Ofcom, the Environment Agency, healthcare regulators, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Competition and Markets, have been ordered to remove barriers to growth, in a bid to kickstart the UK’s sluggish economy. He also wants every government department and regulator to support growth and identify where regulatory objectives were either conflicting or confused. Maybe it would have been a better idea if he had come up with this scheme before trying to crash an already battered economy in hid first six months in office.

It has taken the UK over eight years to be invited back to a meeting involving EU leaders, following the country leaving the bloc and ridding itself of the likes of egoistic and intransient bureaucrats, such as Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, who seemed to take pleasure in ensuring that the Brexit negotiations were all one-sided. Now PM Keir Starmer has been invited to an informal summit of EU leaders, in February, with the focus on future security and defence co-operation, in the wake of the Ukraine war, (with Russia receiving help from Iran, North Korea and China), along with the start of Trump’s second term as president – and his threat to impose punitive sanctions on the EU.  There is no doubt that the EU was impacted by the UK’s surprise departure in 2016 and the loss of not only a major economy but also its foremost military power. (The UK’s economy also suffered). It seems that with the major EU players, Germany, France and Italy, all troubled by political and economic woes, it is a good time for the bloc to offer the hand of reconciliation on more equitable terms for the benefit of all stakeholders. It will be a question of give and take from both sides in a new environment of goodwill, with Labour espousing an “ambitious reset” of EU-UK relations.

2025 could be a make-or-break year for the UK economy and many of the country’s stakeholders face a turbulent year ahead. Retail will suffer from several negative factors, including an April 2025 1.2% rise in employer’s National Insurance contributions, with the sector impacted by the treble whammy of increased costs. They will be reflected in lower margins, (with the sector bearing some of the increased costs) whilst others will see higher prices, borne by the consumers; price rises will result in lower sales which will be further exacerbated by very subdued consumer confidence and a reduction in their spend. Weak footfall over Q4 could be a worrying sign of things to come in the new year.

MNCs and exporters will suffer the same as retailers but will also be damaged if Donald Trump keeps to his promise of extending tariffs. This, in turn, could turn into a major trade war if countries will respond in kind – a distinct possibility with many economies, including the EU, UK and Japan already intimating that there would be retaliatory measures. (Interestingly, it is unlikely that China would join). If this were to go ahead, the result would inevitably be a damaging trade war that would hit global growth. Two other negative factors would be the weak state of the Chinese economy and the ongoing wars in the ME, Ukraine and other places.

To add to their woes, are the political and economic problems in the EU, more so in the three major nations – Germany, France and Italy – where economic activity will grind to a snail’s pace, especially in Germany until after their snap election next month.

The hospitality sector will face most of the problems listed above but will also, like Retail, be very concerned about the upcoming increase in the national living wage.

The manufacturing sector will continue to struggle. For example, the MV sector continues to face stiff competition from Chinese imports, as well as facing the threat of penalties where electric vehicles are too low a proportion of their overall sales, if unrealistic high targets, set by the government, are not sensibly amended, then they will face major financial problems.

The housing sector could be an outlier in 2025 and one of the few expected to improve its position this year. The Starmer government has set what some may consider unrealistically high targets of 300k new builds every year and this despite a marked deficiency in skilled labour numbers.

There is no doubt that the UK economy is looking down the barrel as itenters Q2 of the century.

The Centre for Retail Research has estimated that almost 170k retail workers have lost their jobs in 2024, after the collapse of major high street chains; this is the worst annual loss of jobs since the Covid era of 2020. This figure is 50k (41.9%) higher on the year, with one of the main drivers being the collapse of major chains such as Ted Baker and Homebase. Further statistics showed that about 33% of this year’s losses, equating to 55.9k, were the result of business collapses, with thirty-eight major retailers going into administration, including Lloyds Pharmacy, The Body Shop, and Carpetright. The balance was because of “rationalisation”, as part of cost-cutting programmes by large retailers or small independents choosing to permanently close their stores. It is estimated that independent retailers, which are generally small businesses with between one and five stores, shed a total of 58.6k jobs last year. The same five factors continued to play their parts in closures and cut-backs – changed customer shopping habits, inflation, rising energy costs, higher rents and ongoing business rates – and 2025 is likely to follow the same pattern, with the two extra burdens being the 1.2% hike in employers’ national insurance contributions to 15%, starting in April – adding a further GBP 2.3 billion cost to the sector – and the reduction, (from 75% to 40%), in discounts for business rates. It is estimated that these will result in independent retailers paying an extra annual US$ 6.3k, with their bills rising some 140%; this will cost the retail sector an extra US$ 863 million. If nothing is changed, and the status quo remains, the sector will have to find an additional US$ 2.89 billion and, at the same time, will see further redundancies exceeding 200k in 2025.

2025 could prove to be a tricky year for the UK property market because of a change in stamp duty and market uncertainty on mortgage rates. Q1 should see a flurry of activity ahead of changes that will see house buyers paying more stamp duty on properties of over US$ 155k, (GBP 125k), half of the current US$ 310k threshold. First-time buyers begin to pay stamp duty on purchases of over US$ 527k (GBP 425k) but this will be reduced to US$ 382k come April. Furthermore, there are still concerns if and when the BoE will actually start cutting rates in 2025, with its governor, Andrew Bailey commenting that “the world is too uncertain” to make accurate predictions of when interest rates would fall, and by how much. However, as house prices still remain stubbornly high relative to average earnings, some prospective first-time buyers have already exited unable to raise the initial deposit. To exacerbate the problem, record rates of rental growth, in recent years, have seen those actually saving for a deposit in a situation that they are taking longer to raise the money needed to obtain a mortgage. There is hope that housing affordability could improve later in the year if mortgage rates were to fall and wages were to rise, (well above the inflation rate). Indeed, Finance has forecast an optimistic 10% rise in mortgage lending for house purchases during 2025, although some analysts have already questioned this prediction as optimistic for lenders. It is estimated that 80% of mortgages are fixed rate – normally either two-year or five-year deals – with the BoE estimating that 4.4 million mortgage holders are expected to see payments rise by 2027.

A Sky News study indicates that the typical UK household will have to bear a further US$ 335, with the increase in costs for energy, water and council tax, outstripping the 2.6% inflation rate. On top of these troubles for the consumer, the economy, which had been the best performing in the G7 this time last year, is flatlining, as it enters the new year, with latest figures from the Office of National Statistics indicating there was zero growth in Q3. Then in April the arrival of the 1.2% hike in employers’ national insurance contributions will inevitably result in loss of jobs and reduced pay.

The following table traces how certain indices have performed over the years. Gold has had two great years jumping 43.39% over that period, including 26.52% in 20234 with more of the same on the way this year. It closed 2024 at US$ 2,624 and it is highly likely that it will top US$ 3k sometime in H1 and a 20% rise could see it trading around the US$ 3,150 mark. Brent has had its troubles, (12.9% lower than its 2022 year-end high of US$ 74.81), that have been well documented; given the global economic environment, it is difficult to see the index moving any higher than US$ 80 in 2025. After two years of double-digit growth, iron ore saw a 23.1% slump in 2024 to close on US$ 103.61. Little upward movement is expected this year. Meanwhile coffee had a stellar year, mainly attributable to the weather and increased consumption numbers. A 70.5% price surge last year, to US$ 320, will not be repeated in 2025 but prices will remain buoyant, driven by on-going supply constraints. For the third year in a row, cotton continued its downward spiral and is 39.3% lower than three years earlier. Silver performed better than expected – up nearly 20% on the year – after a flat three years; 2025 will see the metal with increased market support and there is hope that it will top US$ 30 this year. Copper traded 2.0% higher in 2024 and is expected to move higher at a slightly quicker pace next year. The strength of the US$ came to the forefront in Q4 and saw the greenback showing gains on the year against sterling, the Ozzie dollar, the euro and rouble of 1.73%, 9.24%, 6.24% and 18.18% at US$ 1.251, US$ 0.619, US$ 1.036 and US$ 0.009. It will be interesting to see what impact sanctions will have and whether the dollar weakens to make US imports cheaper this year.  All five bourses are moving in the right direction with the local DFM posting another impressive return of 26.98% after a 20%+ figure a year earlier – it will probably hit double figure gains in 2025 but not as high as recorded last year. The FTSE is slowly – but steadily – losing its influence on the global stage but will continue to tick over this year. The US bourses again were up across the board, with the S&P 500 23.34% higher at 5,882. They will still have momentum going forward but any gains will be well down on 2023 returns. Bitcoin is another story and there is every reason to see it moving upwards again this year.

   %age31-Dec31-Dec31-Dec31-Dec
  UnitRise2024202320222021
Gold oz26.52%2,62420741,8301,831
Iron Ore lb-23.08%103.61134.7121.3106.7
Oil-Brent bar-3.10%74.8177.285.9177.78
Coffee lb70.48%320.84188.2174226.75
Cotton lb-15.79%68.3881.283.4112.65
Silver oz19.83%28.8824.124.1823.36
Copper lb2.05%3.983.93.824.46
AUD  -9.24%0.6190.6820.6810.726
GBP  -1.73%1.2511.2731.21.01.353
Euro  -6.24%1.0361.1051.0731.137
Rouble  -18.18%0.0090.0110.0140.013
FTSE 100  5.69%8,17377337,4527,403
CSI300  14.69%3,93534313,8724,940
S&P 500  23.34%5,88247693,8404,766
DFMI  26.98%5,1594,0633,3363,196
ASX 200  7.50%8,15975907,0397,844
Bitcoin  119.87%93,53342539.21685648011

2024 Dubai Forecasts

  • in 2024, Dubai’s population grew by 170k, (4.664%) to 3.825 million, accounting for 34.20% of the country’s population of 11,184 million. In 2025, Dubai’s population, with an increase of one hundred and eighty thousand, will top four million, to 4.005 million – up 4.75% on the year
  • there will be a marked number of “new” residents moving to Dubai from the northern emirates
  • last year, an estimated 43k units were added to the Dubai property portfolio to 873k, with an expected 52k to be added in 2025, to 925k units
  • there is no doubt that property prices have skyrocketed since the pandemic and average prices will continue to move higher – in 2025, expect a lower double-digit growth
  • prices for off-plan residences, villas, and townhouses expected to rise by another 10-15% – and even higher in the luxury market sector which could be as high as 30%
  • by the end of 2024, the UAE government had signed twenty-four Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, with countries and international blocs, covering approximately 2.5 billion people or 30.5% of the global population of 8.197 billion. it will sign at least fifteen new CEPAs in 2025 in a bid to achieve the administration’s aim of targeting US$ 1.09 trillion in total trade value by 2031 and doubling the size of the wider economy by 2030
  • having jumped 61.4% in the previous three years to 31 December 2024, including a 2024 growth of 26.98% to 5,159 points, the DFM will maintain its upward momentum into the new year, with a slightly slower – but still double-digit growth
  • having delivered the highest level of profit (US$ 4.70 billion), and revenue (US$ 37.40 billion), last fiscal year, ending 31 March 2024, expect Emirates to deliver enhanced figures with revenue rising by more than 10% and profit slightly less
  • DXB will record a record number of passengers reaching ninety-one million in 2024, with numbers expected to top ninety-three million in 2025
  • Dubai’s debt will remain steady at 34% of GDP, (down from 70% in 2021), helped by several factors including its strong resurgence post-Covid, asset sales of several GREs, increased dividends from associated companies, the introduction of corporation tax and a further surge in tourism. grew 3.6% in H1, with the GDP reaching US$ 239.67 billion. Over the period, the non-oil sector, growing by 4.4%, led by the transportation, construction and ICT sectors, contributed over 75% of the UAE’s economy
  • GDP growth in Dubai to be close to 4% on average between 2025 and 2027, after a 3.6% growth in H2 2024. Thus far, the effects of geopolitical tensions have been minimal. Non-oil sector will grow by 5.0% in 2025, with latest figures showing a 4.4% hike in H1 2024, whilst total growth will come in at 5.2%
  • further growth in the hospitality sector will see hotel revenues 8% higher, at US$ 7.2 billion, in 2025, with guest numbers increasing 10% 16.8 million
  • two more government-related companies listed on the DFM
  • one Dubai family IPO to be listed on the DFM

2024 Global Forecasts

  • in 2024, the global economy slowed to 3.2%, not helped by geo-political problems. 2025 will see marginally higher economic growth, at 3.3%, as interest rates nudge slowly lower
  • G20 headline inflation will ease to 3.3% in 2025, down from the 6.1% level in 2023
  • high global debt will continue to hurt the poorer nations with a major famine/pandemic all but inevitable and, as usual, the emerging nations will bear the brunt, with the poor becoming poorer and the rich richer
  • although there will be some sort of settlements in both the ME and Ukraine crises this year, geopolitical tensions will not go away but just move from location to location, with West Africa, Taiwan and Yemen places to watch. Wherever they occur, it will damage the health of global economies including the US and China
  • expect to see German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French President Emmanuel Macron out of office this year
  • there will be minimal growth in the EU with Germany, (and maybe France and Italy) expected to go into recession sometime in 2025
  • Australia, India, Brazil and parts of Europe will be hit by a mix of floods and record high temperatures which will impact global economic growth
  • oil prices will hover around US$ 80 during another year of volatile trading that will see production two million bpd higher
  • despite all the talk circulating around climate control, 2024 global coal demand is projected to have grown by 1.0%, setting a new all-time high of 8 771 MT, with China, India and ASEAN countries consuming 75% of total demand, (compared to 35% at the beginning of the century). With slowing global economic growth, coal demand will only nudge slightly higher in 2025, to a new record high 9,200 MT, but it will not be until at least 2027 that demand will start to fall
  • the so-called “Magnificent 7” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla – had another great year, gaining 63% in value last year and 75% in 2023 – another good year expected in 2025 but slightly down compared to 2024. (Their 2024 profits accounted for about 75% of S&P 500 earnings growth)
  • from being the fastest growing economy in the G7 during the first half of 2024, the UK stagnated during Q3 2024, as the incoming government ladled on the doom and gloom in a bid to underline what it presented as its dire economic inheritance, hitting business and consumer confidence in the process. With many, including the BoE, expecting the economy to have flatlined, more of the same awaits the UK in 2025

Although we are sheltered somewhat here in Dubai, whatever happens in 2025 remains to be seen but one thing is for sure – we are in for a Bumpy Ride!

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Second Hand News!

Posted on December 28, 2024 by howesdubai

Second-Hand News!                                                         27 December 2024

Union Properties has broken ground on its latest Motor City US$ 545 million project – the Takaya – which overlooks the Dubai Autodrome; home prices will be in the mid-to-high range. This development comes after UP has been notably absent from off plan launches, as it had been recovering from previous losses, following dubious management action. Including a five-hundred-meter-long shopping boulevard, the project will encompass three residential towers, with seven hundred and eighty-eight units. There are listings for an in-development studio unit at Motor City for US$ 155k, while one-bedroom prices are from US$ 245k, with rentals for one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments at US$ 23k and US$ 37k.

With just over 40k residential units entering the market this year, demand remains tight. Over recent years, this has resulted in a mini exodus to other northern emirates which has seen the daily commute traffic worsen, so much so that up to two-hour, one-way drives have become the norm. This, in turn, has resulted in property prices, north of the border, rising but with an expected softening in 2025 rentals/prices in certain Dubai tier-2 areas like Arjan, Jumeirah Village Circle and Sports City, the price differential between the emirates will lessen; this could see many returning to Dubai. Add in to the mix, the actual cost of commuting, plus the stress factor of queuing in traffic four hours a day, and a move back to Dubai becomes a reasonable option. According to Asteco’s Q3 data, a studio costs US$ 5.45k per annum in International City, compared to US$ 4.90k in Sharjah’s high-end areas bordering Dubai and US$ 4.63k in Ajman.

After almost two years of remedial work, Ain Dubai, the world’s tallest observation wheel, resumed with a soft opening on Christmas Day. Closed since March 2022, the attraction is now fully operational; prices range from US$ 39 to US$ 343.

The government-owned EV charging network has announced that there will be new tariffs, to be introduced on 01 January 2025, which will see DC chargers, costing US$ 0.33 plus VAT per kWh, and AC Chargers at US$ 0.19. In the eight months, since May, when tariffs were first introduced until the end of the year, EV charging services have remained free. UAEV is to introduce an app to provide features such as finding the next charging station, live status updates, and simple payment options, as well as launching a dedicated 24/7 call centre to provide instant support and assistance. Sharif al Olama, Chairman of UAEV, noted that “by expanding our network and aligning with the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 Strategy, we are driving a cleaner, greener future for all.” Within six years, UAEV’s network will include 1k chargers, strategically located across urban hubs, highways and transit points within the country.

Starting from 02 January, the federal Ministry of Economy on Tuesday announced a minimum time period of six months, between two consecutive increases in prices of nine basic commodities, without prior approval, in order to protect consumers and enhance competition; they are cooking oil, eggs, dairy products, rice, sugar, poultry, legumes, bread and wheat. Under the new policy, retail stores are required to display unit prices to promote transparency, with the Ministry given supervisory powers to ensure that all parties comply with the decisions.

In the nine months to 30 September, the five leading countries, in the list of non-Emirati entities applying to join the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, were from India, Pakistan, Egypt, Syria and the UK with numbers of 12.14k, 6.06k 3.61k, 2.06k and 1.89k. Other countries, with more than 1k joiners, were Bangladesh, Iraq, China, Jordan and Sudan. The sector-wise split saw trade/services, real estate/business services, construction and transport/storage/communications, accounting for 41.0%, 33.3%, 10.4% and 8.6% of the total.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has issued Decree No. (48) of 2024 establishing the Dubai Resilience Centre. The main aim of the Decree is to make Dubai the world’s most agile city in dealing with various risks, in times of emergencies, crises, and disasters, and ensuring it has the ability to take measures to prevent and address such events and ensure rapid recovery if they occur. The new entity will operate under Dubai’s Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management, the legal authority and capacity to implement actions and transactions necessary to fulfil its mandate.

The DRC is responsible for measuring performance indicators, (and the rate of progress in implementing approved plans and programmes), and submitting regular reports to the Supreme Committee. This decree obliges all government and non-government entities in Dubai to fully cooperate with the Centre, provide the necessary support, data, information, documents, statistics, and studies it requests to carry out its tasks. HH, the Chairman of the Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management, will issue the decisions necessary to implement the provisions of this Decree. The provisions of any other legislation that conflicts with the Decree will be annulled.

Drydocks World has opened its massive 75k sq mt multi-million-dollar expansion facility in Dubai, with the new South Yard enhancing its fabrication capabilities by 40% and yard capacity by 25%; this will help the ship repair and maintenance company carry out multiple large-scale projects simultaneously. It will also feature the MEA’s biggest load-out jetty, capable of handling structures weighing up to 37k tonnes, and will ensure the facility’s ability to meet ‘growing demand for energy transition projects and deliver innovative offshore solutions worldwide’. The addition of a 5k tonne Sheerleg Floating Crane, expected to be operational by 2026, will further expand the facility’s ability to handle large and complex projects on a global stage. The South Yard will operate entirely on clean energy, sourced from the Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

Dubai-listed Takaful Emarat – Insurance PJSC, has completed its capital increase to US$ 57.4 million, by raising US$ 50.4 million, via a rights issue offered to existing investors, at an issuance price of US$ 0.272 per new share.  Times have improved for the insurer, as it has managed to turn a Q3 2023 loss of US$ 232k to a US$ 2.40 million profit in Q3 2024. Earlier, this year, the Board wrote-off of accumulated losses, as part of a broader initiative, and introduced other enhancements such as improved transparency, and the delivery of cutting-edge products and services. It ended the week with a share price of US$ 0.37.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 23 December, two hundred and twenty-seven points (4.7%) higher the previous week, gained seven-three points (1.4%), to close the trading week on 5,130 points by Friday 27 December 2024. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.90 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.02, closing on US$ 3.49 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.56 US$ 1.91 and US$ 0.40 and closed on US$ 0.76, US$ 5.83, US$ 1.92 and US$ 0.41. On 27 December, trading was at two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ ninety-one million, compared to three hundred and sixty-five million shares, with a value of US$ 329 million, on 20 December.  

By Friday, 27 December 2024, Brent, US$ 1.47 lower (2.0%) the previous week, gained US$ 1.23 (1.7%) to close on US$ 74.17. Gold, US$ 49 (1.9%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 27 (1.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,654 on 27 December 2024.

Having allegedly putting some one hundred and sixty workers in a “degrading” environment and having their passports and salaries withheld by a building company, Brazilian authorities have taken immediate action by halting the construction of a US$ 482 million factory for BYD; the Chinese EV giant has subsequently stated that it had cut links with the builder and remained committed to “full compliance with Brazilian legislation”. The factory, slated for handover next March, was set to be BYD’s first EV plant outside of Asia; in 2015, it had opened a factory in São Paulo, producing chassis for electric buses. Brazil is the company’s largest overseas market.

Reports indicate that Toyota is planning to build an EV factory in Shanghai, for its luxury Lexus brand, despite several foreign automakers struggling to make headwind in China. Ready by 2027, the factory will be the first Japanese vehicle factory of its kind in China, and will be running solo, without a local partner. Toyota is banking on the new plant will help it catch up in the Chinese market; China overtook Japan as the biggest vehicle exporter last year. The planned Shanghai factory would mainly produce Lexus models, since Toyota mostly sells Japanese-made Lexus vehicles in China.

Citing “dramatic changes in the environment surrounding both companies and the automotive industry”, Honda and Nissan, number two and three carmakers in Japan, confirmed their plan to list a holding company in August 2026. The aim of the exercise is to strengthen their position on EVs and self-driving tech, which has been impacted by weak consumer spending and tough competition in several markets, including Europe.

It will take Lamborghini another five years before it launches its first electric model; long-term rival, Ferrari expects to have its first EV on the road by the end of 2025. It seems obvious that the car maker is in no hurry to rush into the EV sector, but it does have an entire hybrid three-model line-up, with the new version of Urus SE SUV, the Revuelto sports car and the new Temerario sports car – the latter priced at over US$ 315k, excluding VAT. The Italian motor company also reconfirmed that there were no plans for a Lamborghini spin-off from the Volkswagen group, adding that Lamborghini cars would always be produced in Italy.

Last Friday, Novo Nordisk saw its market cap lose US$ 125 billion, (up to 27%), on the back of disappointing results in a late-stage trial for its experimental next-generation obesity drug CagriSema; this was supposed to be a follow up to its highly successful Wegovy weight-loss drug, that is more powerful than Eli Lilly’s rival Zepbound, also known as Mounjaro. The CagriSema trial showed the drug helped patients cut their weight by 22.7%, below the 25%-mark Novo Nordisk had expected, but it noted that if all people adhered to treatment with CagriSema, patients overall achieved weight loss of 22.7% after sixty-eight weeks, with 40.4% losing 25% or more.

Following a US$ 4.30 billion offer declined last month, Aviva has finally succeeded in acquiring rival company Direct Line for US$ 4.82 billion. Aviva will pay US$ 1.69 in cash, and US$ 0.37 of its own shares, for each Direct Line share as part of the takeover, along with a US$ 0.065 in dividend payments per share to Direct Line shareholders. Aviva shareholders will own 87.5% of the new company and Direct Line shareholders the balance. This will see the expanded entity cover more than 20% of the UK market.

It was not a happy Christmas for Cadbury, after discovering that it no longer holds its royal warrant, granted by Queen Victoria, one hundred and seventy years ago. The action by King Charles came after he was urged by the campaign group B4Ukraine to take warrants from companies “still operating in Russia”, after the invasion of Ukraine. The chocolate maker noted that it was “disappointed” to lose its warrants which are granted as a special mark of recognition to people or companies who have regularly supplied goods or services to the royal household. Unilever, which owns consumer brands Dove and Lipton, was also stripped of its warrant. However, Bacardi and Samsung, that were also named in the B4Ukraine list, have not been stripped of their royal warrants, indicating the decision is not linked to Russia’s invasion.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed what most already knew – that Russian companies have begun using bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments in order to counter Western sanctions. Russia has had past problems with two of its major partners – China and Turkey – as local banks are extremely cautious with Russian-related transactions to avoid scrutiny from Western regulators. In 2024, the government also made it legal to mine cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin.

In Kuwait, the Council of Ministers has approved the “Multinational Entities Group Tax Law”, which will see a 15% tax on multinational entities starting on 01 January 2025; it will apply to companies operating across multiple countries or jurisdictions. This move aligns with international tax standards and is designed to curb tax evasion and prevent the leakage of tax revenues to other countries – and follows a similar move here in the UAE.

Starting on 01 January 2026, China approved a VAT law that brings into one document previous regulations that have included exempting items from the tax. It is estimated that this tax is the country’s largest tax category, accounting for 38% of national tax revenue in 2023. This latest draft included exemptions for some agricultural products, imported instruments and equipment for scientific research and teaching, as well as some imported goods for the disabled and services provided by welfare institutions such as nursery, kindergarten and nursing institution for the elderly. With the economy slowing, YTD VAT revenue dipped 4.7% on the year to US$ 840 billion, but rose 1.36% in November; that month, the government unveiled tax incentives on home and land transactions to support the crisis-hit property market, with VAT exemptions allowed for residents when homes were sold after at least two years post purchase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been cautioned by the IMF that it should consider tighter monetary policy if progress on lowering inflation stalls, because of government spending heading higher and an increasing tighter than expected jobs market. As the RBA is working towards inflation heading down towards its 2.0% – 3.0% target, the IMF is concerned that efforts will stall, as it considers that the government’s fiscal policy is working against the RBA’s restrictive monetary policy, in a manner that contradicts the disinflation objective. Furthermore, there are worries about the country’s job markets that have yet to peak at 4.5%, (per the Treasury and RBA’s unemployment forecast), still hovering around the 3.9% rate.

Claiming that “the fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, highly unfair,” and charging “exorbitant prices” to American shipping and naval vessels, Donald Trump, has demanded Panama reduce fees on the Panama Canal or return it to US control. Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino, added that Panama’s sovereignty and independence were non-negotiable, and quickly retorted that “every square metre” of the eighty-two km canal and surrounding area belong to his country. Built in the early 1900s, the US maintained control over the canal zone until 1977, when treaties gradually ceded the land back to Panama. After a period of joint control, Panama took sole control in 1999.The US reserved the right to use military force in defence of the canal against any threat to its neutrality – a threat which now appears to be coming from the US itself. Some 75% of the cargo passing through the waterway in the latest fiscal year was either destined for or originated from the US, according to the Panama Canal Authority.

Leading UK retail giants are expected to unite in a new year campaign to again warn Rachel Reeves that her plans to hike business rates on larger shops will put jobs and stores under threat. It seems that the likes of Asda, Marks & Spencer, Primark, J Sainsbury, Morrisons, Kingfisher-owned B&Q and Tesco will be involved, having agreed to revive a group called the Retail Jobs Alliance. It will argue that a wave of tax rises and regulatory changes will threaten investment by major retailers in economically deprived areas of the country. In total, the RJA’s members employ more than a million people across the country and account for a significant proportion of the stores, with rateable values in excess of the proposed threshold.

The Confederation of British Industry, joining the list of dissatisfied stakeholders, commented that the UK economy is “headed for the worst of all worlds”, as businesses expect activity to fall at the start of next year. Its latest survey points to private sector firms expecting to cut down on hiring, and to reduce output, as well as for prices to rise in Q1; the main driver continues to be Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise US$ 31.33 billion by increasing employers’ national insurance contributions by 1.2% to 15.0%. The CBI added that firms are looking for the government “to boost confidence and to give them a reason to invest” in 2025, “whether that’s long overdue moves to reform the apprenticeship levy, supporting the health of the workforce through increased occupational health incentives or a reform of business rates”.

It is estimated that more than US$ 2.55 billion was spent on second-hand gifts this Christmas, boosted by the current cost of living crisis and, to a lesser extent, a move to sustainable buying and sustainable consumption. Vinted, an online marketplace for buying and selling pre-owned items, made its first annual net profit last year of US$ 19 million, as annual revenue climbed 61%, driven by a rise in demand for second-hand goods.A report by Vinted and Retail Economics found that second-hand shopping will account for just over 10% of all gift spending. A study estimated that more than 80% also said they might spend some of their budget on pre-loved gifts this year. Furthermore, shoppers are also selling their own belongings to fund Christmas gifts, with 43% selling online. However, HM Revenue and Customs’ regulations indicate that if someone sells above a certain threshold, Vinted must ask the seller for their national insurance number and share it with HMRC. The company noted that it “is obligated to collect the national insurance number for any seller who sold more than thirty items or more than US$ 2.13k worth of product in the previous twelve months”; “but here’s the really important thing, the obligation to give your national insurance number does not mean there is any obligation to actually pay tax… there is no tax to pay on the private sale of second-hand items.” It would be interesting to see how the local market fares in this sector, with this observer indicating that it is on the rise. and it is no longer Second-Hand News!

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