Walk of Life!

Posted on June 27, 2025 by howesdubai

Walk Of Life!                                                                                  27 June 2025

As Dubai’s realty sector could be in for a record summer of transactions, that could top US$ 40.0 billion, global luxury agency Whitewill has selected six UAE hotspots as top picks for property investment in 2025, noting that each offered a mix of strong rental yields, long-term appreciation and lifestyle appeal. The agency also noted that the UAE market had climbed 22.0% higher on the year, with Q1 topping US$ 142.7 billion, and that off-plan now accounted for 63% of all transactions. Two of the selections were Al Marjan Island, Ras Al Khaimah, and Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. The other four were all Dubai-based:

Dubai Creek Harbour            it has seen a surge in investor interest due to its elegant skyline, green surroundings, and the under-construction Dubai Creek Tower

prices for waterfront apartments begin at US$ 395k, while villas     can exceed US$ 1.36 million

average rental yields of 6.0% to 6.8%

Business Bay                           already known for its premium positioning beside Downtown and the DIFC

Studios and one- to two-bedroom apartments typically trade around US$ 381k

yields of up to 7% – driven largely by short-term rentals

Dubai South                           aligns with the UAE’s infrastructure vision and logistics future and from proximity to the Al Maktoum International Airport expansion and the Expo 2020 legacy district

Prices remain accessible – starting from US$ 218k

capital growth is projected between 15%–25% by 2030

rental yields of 6% to 8%

Jumeirah Village Circle         continues to deliver strong returns for first-time investors and buy-to-let landlords and remains one of the most stable and in-demand affordable districts

apartments start at US$ 177k                                             entry-level villas are available at US$ 436k

yields of 7.0% to 8.6%

Elkhan Salikhov, CEO of Elite Merit Real Estate, notes that “summer 2025 offers a compelling value window that we expect will close quickly by Q4. A convergence of factors – pricing still below peak, soft summer inventory pressure, and upcoming project handovers – is creating an ideal moment for experienced buyers.” In addition, other driving factors include developer incentives and buyer-friendly terms.  Many analysts seem to consider that, by the end of the year, market sentiment will turn more competitive, with prices rebounding.

This week saw another major milestone for another Dubai community, with Jumeirah Islands posting its own record price, with a ‘Masterview’ villa being sold for nearly US$ 13 million; this sale enhances Jumeirah Islands as a prime destination for UHNW investors. The villa, which is on a 15.8k sq ft plot, with a built-up area of 7.5k sq ft, has five ensuite bedrooms, an integrated home automation system, and bespoke Italian furnishings.

The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that the global travel and tourism sector, which accounts for 10% of the world GDP, added US$ 10.9 trillion to the world economy last year. It also noted that the industry accounts for 13.0% of the UAE’s economy, equating to US$ 70.10 billion – up 3.2% on the year and 26.0% higher on 2019 pre-Covid returns. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid praised the sector’s achievements, as it moved up to seventh in global rankings for international tourist spending. The top five source markets, accounting for 40% of the market, were India, UK, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia bagging 14%, 8%, 8%, 5% and 5% of the total. Last year, tourism spending topped US$ 74.66 billion, split 79.2:20.8 between international and domestic spend. The UAE Tourism Strategy 2031 aims to further boost the sector’s GDP contribution to US$ 122.62 billion and attract forty million hotel guests annually by then.

In the first five months of the year, Dubai witnessed a 6.9% hike in international tourist numbers to 8.68 million. The leading source markets, accounting for 87.5% of the total were:In the first five months of the year, Dubai witnessed a 6.9% hike in international tourist numbers to 8.68 million. The leading source markets, accounting for 87.5% of the total were:·      

Western Europe                                                       1.917 million                                 22.1%. Russia, CIS Countries and E Europe                       1.396 million                                 16.1%. GCC                                                                         1.275 million                                 14.7% SouthAsia                                                             1.240 million                  14.3% MENA                                                                      0.989 million                                 11.4% NE & SE Asia                                                           0.771 million                                 8.9%

Australia                                                                   0.141 million                                 1.6%

Americas                                                                  0.601 million                                 6.9%

Africa                                                                        0.346 million                                 4.0%

By the end of May 2025, Dubai’s hotel sector comprised eight hundred and twenty-five establishments, offering 153.4k rooms, compared to eight hundred and twenty two hotels with 150.2k rooms at the end of May 2024. Average hotel occupancy was up 2.0% to 83.0% during the first five months of 2025. The total number of occupied room nights was 4.1% higher at 19.09 million, with average stays of 3.8 nights. Average daily room rates rose 5.1% to US$ 169, and revenue per available room saw a 7.3% hike, reaching US$ 140.

To strengthen national identity and values, the Ministry of Education has announced that all private schools in the country must teach Arabic language, Islamic Studies and Social Studies. The move applies to all curricula, starting for the first time this August, at the start of the 2025/2026 academic year.

During the month, three credit agencies have assigned sovereign credit ratings for the UAE. All three gave the sovereign rating a stable outlook, with S&P, Moody’s and Firch assigning ‘AA’, ‘Aa2’ and ‘AA’- ratings respectively. Such levels show that international confidence in the UAE economy is high, and that it has enhanced its advanced fiscal standing and strengthened its position among the few countries globally with strong sovereign credit ratings from all three top agencies. HH Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid, noted that “the affirmation of the UAE’s strong sovereign rating by the world’s top three international credit rating agencies, and their consensus on a stable outlook, reflects the deep-rooted international confidence in the resilience of our national economy and the efficiency of our fiscal policies”, and that “this strengthens the UAE’s presence on the global economic map and reinforces its ability to confidently navigate regional and international changes and challenges — by expanding the investor base and enhancing the country’s reputation as a reliable and attractive destination in global capital markets”.

Yesterday, the Central Bank of UAE revised its GDP 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts by 0.3%, to 4.7% and 5.4%, due to lower oil prices, slower global economic activity and higher uncertainty. However, it will retain its position as the best-performing economy in the GCC region in 2025, and the second-fastest next year. Yesterday, S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast UAE growth levels to be 5.4% and 6.5% this year and next. The ratings agency is in agreement with the CBUAE that 2025 inflation will be 1.9%. For the non-oil sector, the Central Bank forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% and a steady growth rate in 2026.

The RTA, in collaboration with Emaar Properties, has announced plans to expand capacity at the Burj Khalifa-Dubai Mall Metro Station, by 65% to 220k passengers daily, to accommodate growing demand. The station’s area will be increased by 27% to 8.5k sq mt. There will be enhancements to entrances and pedestrian bridges, expansion of concourse and platform areas, installation of additional escalators and elevators, and separation of entry and exit gates to optimise passenger movement. Last year, it was estimated that 10.57 million passengers used the station, equating to some 58k passengers a day.

Twenty-one people of various nationalities have been convicted and fined almost US$ 7.0 million for a visa fraud. The Dubai Citizenship and Residency Prosecution found them guilty of illegally using three hundred and eighty-five residence visas to exploit people and operating phantom companies that they would abruptly close without regularising the status of the recruited workers.

This week the Central Bank of the UAE posted its figures from March:

  • money supply aggregate M1 by 0.4% to US$ 268.72 billion due to a US$ 1.39 billion growth in currency in circulation outside banks, overriding the US$ 381 million decrease in monetary deposits
  • money supply aggregate M2 increased by 3.3%, to US$ 664.22 billion, attributable to an elevated M1, and a US$ 20.11 billion increase in Quasi-Monetary Deposits
  • money supply aggregate M3 also increased by 2.9%, to US$ 788.47 billion due to the growth in M2, and US$ 1.23 billion increase in government deposits
  • monetary base by 2.0%, to US$ 227.00 billion, driven by increases in currency issued by 4.1% and in reserve account by 62.0%, overriding the decrease in banks & OFCs’ current accounts & overnight deposits of banks at CBUAE by 64.2% and in monetary bills & Islamic certificates of deposit by 6.3%
  • gross banks’ assets, including bankers’ acceptances, by 1.9% to US$ 1,285.94 billion
  • gross credit by 1.6% to US$ 610.35 billion due to the combined growth in domestic credit by US$ 5.31 billion and foreign credit by US$ 4.41 billion
  • domestic credit was due to increases in credit to the public sector (government-related entities) by 0.2%, private sector by 1.4% and non-banking financial institutions by 1.9%, while credit to the government sector decreased by 0.3%
  • banks’ deposits by 2.3% to US$ 800.11 billion, driven by the shared growth in resident deposits by 2.4%, settling at US$ 732.37 billion and in non-resident deposits by 0.4%, reaching US$ 677.38 billion

Pursuant to Article 137 of the Decretal Federal Law No. 14 of 2018 regarding the Central Bank and Organisation of Financial Institutions and Activities, and its amendments, the Central Bank of the UAE imposed a financial sanction of US$ 545k on an exchange house operating in the country. It was reported that it had failed to comply with AML/CFT policies and procedures.

An unnamed bank has been banned from onboarding new customers, for six months, on its Islamic Window, by the Central Bank of the UAE and imposed a US$ 954k financial sanction; this is in pursuant to Article 137 of the Decretal Federal Law No. (14) of 2018 regarding the Central Bank and Organisation of Financial Institutions and Activities, and its amendments. This resulted from the CBUAE’s Sharia supervision examinations revealed the bank’s non-compliance with the instructions related to Sharia Governance of the Islamic Window.

Founded in 2000, as the region’s pioneer financial services provider, Amlak Finance PJSC has had a chequered life. Four years later, in 2004, it was converted to a Public Joint Stock Company, with the aim of providing its customers with innovative, Sharia-compliant property financing products and solutions designed to meet the rapidly evolving market demands. However, ever since the 2008 GFC, and the collapse of the Dubai property market, Amlak, like other Dubai real estate-related companies, was badly impacted. The company was delisted from the DFM and was involved in various debt restructuring plans, one of which was a move by the government to significantly reduce its debt; it also formed a government-appointed committee to oversee the restructuring process. Despite all these efforts, the company’s debt was heading in the other direction, with the loss widening attributable to fair value losses on its investment properties and impairments on its financing assets. Over the past four years, Amlak has managed to stem the losses so that by Q1 2025, it posted its first quarterly profit. The finance company also announced that it had settled 91% of its Islamic deposits to date, including Mudaraba Instrument obligations related to financiers.

An important shareholders’ meeting, to be held next Monday, 30 June, will decide whether the finance company can exit from the real estate portfolio; if successful, Amlak could sell financial contracts that it currently holds to other institutions, and also exit finance contracts through ‘mutual agreement’ with customers. Shareholders will also get the chance to authorise the Amlak Board of Directors – or any person authorised by the Board – to ‘approve such transaction and offer discounts and waivers as may be deemed necessary to undertake such transactions’. Amlak shareholders will also need to approve the transferring the balance of the legal reserve and special reserve – totalling US$ 83 million and US$ 27 million, respectively – to offset the company’s accumulated losses. It will receive another financial boost, as it is working on a US$ 812 million land deal, with Emaar Properties. It does seem that Monday’s meeting could be make or break for Amlak – and the market seems to agree with its share value over 90% higher over the past month to US$ 0.441, (AED 1.62).

Because of the Hijri New Year falling today, on 27 June, the bourse was closed. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.26 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.28, closing on US$ 3.66 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74 US$ 5.76 US$ 2.28 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.27, US$ 2.32 and US$ 0.46. On 26 June, trading was at two hundred and eighty-two million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and forty-six million dollars, compared to two hundred and eighty-two million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and forty-six million dollars, on 20 June 2025.

By Friday, 27 June 2025, Brent, US$ 13.10 higher (20.6%) the previous three weeks, shed US$ 9.61 (12.5%) to close on US$ 67.07. Gold, US$ 68 (2.0%) lower the previous week, shed a further US$ 68 (2.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,317,  in early Friday morning, trading on 27 June.

Figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association indicate that Tesla is still struggling with numbers. May European sales have fallen for the fifth consecutive month, and at 8.7k EVs sold in the month, the figure was some 40.5% lower than the 14.7k sold this time last year. Tesla also saw its share of the European market almost halve from 1.6% to 0.9%. Tesla must be concerned that having relied on the updated Model Y to regain ground in Europe, it has been usurped by cheaper Chinese electric cars, amid controversy around the political views of Elon Musk.  Indeed, May saw Skoda, selling more vehicles, overtake Tesla.

In the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders noted that US car exports slumped 55.4% in May, following a 3.0% dip in April. The slowdown was largely down to the 25% Trump tariff – and the uncertainty around it – which led to Jaguar Land Rover, the UK’s biggest exporter of cars to the US, to suspend all shipments temporarily. The latest news is that the 25% tariff has been dropped to 10% for the first 100k vehicles. May production fell by 33.0% to 49.8k vehicles – the worst performance for May, when the COVID years were excluded, since 1949. Meanwhile, the number of vehicles produced for the domestic market fell while shipments to the EU, were down by 22.5%.

Becoming the first GCC country to do so, The Sultanate of Oman has announced that, as from 2028, there will be a 5.0% income tax on those whose annual income exceeds 42k Omani riyals (US$ 109k) from 2028. The twin aims of the Personal Income Tax Law No 56/2025, is to diversify income sources of the government and reduce dependence on oil revenues. To date, the UAE, and the other four countries of the bloc, have introduced VAT and corporate income tax; the UAE also levied tax on tobacco and carbonated drinks in order to encourage healthy lifestyles among the residents. It is expected that about 99% of the population will not be subject to the tax and there will be exemptions; these include deductions and exemptions accounting for social considerations in the Sultanate of Oman, such as education, healthcare, inheritance, zakat, donations, primary housing, and other factors.

In the first five months of 2025, the actual use of foreign direct investment in China’s high-tech industries reached US$ 15.17 billion. Reports indicated that:

  • the FDI in the e-commerce services sector                                       by 146.0%
  • the aerospace equipment manufacturing sector                               by 74.9%
  • the chemical pharmaceutical manufacturing sector                          by 59.2%
  • the medical instrument and equipment manufacturing sector          by 20.0%

So far this year, foreign-funded enterprises have focused on modern service industries and advanced manufacturing, continuously expanding and deepening their investment in China, indicating that country’s potential for foreign investment.

As from 01 June to 19 June, (covering fourteen working days, 0.5 days lower than the same period in 2024), Republic of Korea’s exports were 8.3% higher on the year, driven by solid demand for semiconductors, as outbound shipments reached US$ 38.67 billion, with the daily average volume of exports increasing 12.2%. As imports increased 5.3%, in the period to US$ 36.1 billion, there was a trade surplus of US$ 2.6 billion. Exports of semiconductors surged 21.8% to US$ 8.85 billion, with chip exports, 2.5% higher, accounting for 22.9% of the country’s total exports. Automobile exports were 9.2% higher at US$ 3.65 billion, while shipments of vessels jumped 47.9% to US$ 1.58 billion. Exports to the US and the EU came in 4.3% and 23.5% higher, partly offset by a 1.0% decline in exports to China, the country’s top trading partner.

The Australian Council of Superannuation Investors’ annual review has shown that termination payments for ASX 200 company CEOs have dropped to the lowest level in fifteen years. Total termination payouts have dropped, by 75.0%, to US$ 5.44 million in the fiscal year ending 30 June 2024, down from US$ 21.68 million the previous year. This could be due to fewer CEOs leaving, with the average payout dipping 29.2% to US$ 906k. It is estimated that the average ASX 100 leader “earns” more than fifty-five times the average earnings of an Australian worker, compared to fifty times a year earlier, but a lot less than the seventy-one times posted in 2014.To the casual observer, this difference seems to be obscene but it is nothing compared to the one hundred and six times median salaries in the UK and in the US – that can go as high as three hundred times for the largest companies.

In Australia, top of the charts was US-based Robert Thomson, who runs News Corporation and earns almost US$ 27 million, with the only woman on the list, Shemara Wikramanayaka, CEO of Macquarie Group, making just over US$ 19 million last financial year. The median realised pay for ASX 100 leaders, which includes fixed pay and bonuses received, was 3.5% higher than in 2014, at $4.1 million. Corporate governance expert Helen Bird from Swinburne University said the two-strike rule against remuneration had a dampening effect on pay rises. It is designed to hold directors accountable for executive salaries and bonuses. That is because if shareholders vote against a company’s remuneration report two years in a row, the entire company board can face re-election.

While salaries at the very top end of town have been (relatively) constrained in recent years, the bosses of smaller listed companies have been enjoying increasingly generous paydays. The highest-paid Australian-based chief executive was Lovisa boss Victor Herrero. The jewellery chain has a market capitalisation of US$ 2.4 billion – in comparison, the Commonwealth Bank’s market value is around US$ 207 billion. CEO pay at smaller listed companies has increased over time, with the median climbing 26.4% from US$ 1.14 million in 2014 to US$ 1.74 million in 2024.  Most chief executives received a bonus in 2024, with just five of the one hundred and forty-two eligible leaders missing out altogether, with most tied to company performance. The five were Richard White, Tony Lombardo, Tom Beregi, Mark Allsion, Jamie Pherous and Julian Fowles of Lendlease, Credit Corp, Elders, Corporate Travel Management and Karoon Energy. The median CEO bonus was paid at just under 66% of the maximum, which is in line with the long-term trend.

Prior to the events of last week, the ECB reduced its forecast for global growth, by 0.4% to 3.1%, mainly attributable to Trump tariffs and rising uncertainty surrounding international trade policies. The 2026 outlook is even gloomier slumping by 1.4% to 1.7%. However, on the other hand, the central bank did note several positive factors that could support the eurozone economy and enhance its resilience, including increased government spending on defence and infrastructure, rising real household income, a strong labour market, and improving financing conditions. It seems that this forecast is already out of date bearing in mind the events of last weekend  and the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

Amazon is planning to open four new facilities – two huge fulfilment centres, to be located in the East Midlands, and two others, in Hull and Northampton which had already been announced; the former two will be operational in 2027, (and employ 2k), with the latter two slated to begin next year. These are part of its strategy to expand operations in the UK and to invest up to US$ 55 billion, over the next three years, in the process. Its current workforce is around 75k, making it one of the country’s biggest employers. Apart from two new structures, at its corporate headquarters in east London, other investments include new delivery stations, upgrading its transport network and redeveloping Bray Film Studios in Berkshire – which it acquired in 2025. This investment will make the UK Amazon’s third-biggest market after the US and Germany. Despite this positive press, the US behemoth continues to raise concerns among some regulators, unions and campaigners. The latest reports that the UK grocery regulator launched an investigation into whether it breached rules on supplier payments. This week, it found that almost 34% of Amazon’s UK grocery suppliers say it “rarely” or “never” complies with industry rules governing fair treatment. Meanwhile, its founder Jeff Bezos is in Venice preparing for ‘the wedding of the century’ to Lauren Sánchez.


Following this week’s summit in The Hague, Nato leaders have succumbed to Trump’s demands and have finally agreed to boost defence spending to 5% of their countries’ economic output by 2035; the US President noted that this was a “big win for Europe and… Western civilisation”.  Although not including a condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as it had a year ago, the joint statement reaffirmed their “ironclad commitment” to the principle that an attack on one Nato member would lead to a response from the full alliance, and that they were united against “profound” security challenges, singling out the “long-term threat posed by Russia” and terrorism.

The impact of Trump tariffs can be seen looking at the latest April WTO Goods Trade Barometer which rose 0.7 to 103.5, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year. The decline in export orders and the temporary nature of frontloading suggest that trade growth may slow in the months ahead as enterprises import less and start to draw down accumulated inventories. (Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future). The new export orders index dipped to 97.9, pointing to possible signalling weaker trade growth later in the year. However, other barometer components have risen above the 100 threshold, including. air freight (104.3), container shipping (107.1), automotive products index (105.), electronic components index (102.0) and, the raw materials index (100.8).

Another Trump tariff trade off given by Keir Starmer, as he negotiated a 25% levy on steel and a 100k car free tariff, was the removal of a 19% tariff on US ethanol. Even before this occurrence, the UK industry was struggling and now its owner says this has put the future of the US$ 618 million loss-making Vivergo plant at risk. Indeed, ABF has already started negotiating with employees to affect an orderly wind-down, with wheat purchases having ceased from 11 June. It has warned that ““unless the government is able to provide both short-term funding of Vivergo’s losses and a longer-term solution, we intend to close the plant once the consultation process has completed, and the business has fulfilled its contractual obligations”. It has been rumoured that the Starmer administration has now committed itself to formal negotiations to secure the future of the group’s Vivergo plant, the UK’s largest bioethanol refinery. (An eco-friendlier fuel E10, (which contains 10% bioethanol and 90% regular unleaded petrol, is retailed in the UK).

Although he was appointed by Donald Trump, as the sixteenth Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in 2018, it is no secret that the US president is keen to see Jerome Powell depart; his term in office ends in May 2026. Trump has called Mr Powell “terrible” and said he was looking at “three or four people” who could replace him. Early favourites are Kevein Warsh, a former Fed governor, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It seems likely that Trump is keen to install someone who is sympathetic to his demands The news impacted the greenback, with sterling hitting its highest level in almost four years – at US$ 1.373.

Not many tears will be shed for Jes Staley who lost his bid to negate a Financial Conduct Authority 2023 decision which found that he had “acted with a lack of integrity”, by “recklessly” misleading it about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. At the time, he was banned from holding senior positions in financial services. It seems that the high maintenance and highly paid CEO of Barclays had confirmed to the regulator “that he did not have a close relationship” with the sex offender and that his “last contact” with the paedophile was “well before” he joined the lender in December 2015. After over forty years in the banking industry, Jes Staley, who did his utmost to salvage his tarnished reputation, has lost his Walk Of Life!

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Running Out Of Ideas!

Posted on June 20, 2025 by howesdubai

Running Out Of Ideas!                                                    20 June 2025

A new report by Morgan’s International Realty indicates that only 61.6% of the expected 2025 residential supply will be delivered, giving a total of 22.9k units, falling well short of anticipated supply. Their figures for 2026 are even bleaker with only 53.0%, (equating to 57.6k), being delivered. This is in line with Fitch Ratings analysis that only 55.7%, (97k out of 174k units) were delivered between 2022-2024, attributing the shortfall to various factors, including difficulty in securing quality contractors, project sales timelines, funding delays from banks, and buyer payment issues.

Its Dubai Residential Supply and Delivery Outlook 2025–2027 report identifies the primary areas for residential handovers. In 2025, most new units will be delivered in Studio City, Sobha Hartland, Jumeirah Village Circle, Jumeirah Lake Towers and Al Furjan. For 2026, deliveries will be concentrated in JVC, Azizi Venice, Damac Lagoons, Business Bay and Arjan. In 2027, the supply chain grows to 70.5k units – almost double that of the emirate’s five year 35.5k average – located in JVC, Business Bay, Azizi Venice, Dubai Hills Estate and Creek Harbour. In the three years from 2025, the study shows that 151k units, (22.9k + 57.6k + 70.5k), will be handed over, with the three most active locations, accounting for 34.9k (23.1%)  of the total being JVC, Business Bay Azizi Venice – with 16.9k (11.2%), 10.1k (6.7%) and 7.9k (5.2%).

Shamal has unveiled a ninety-unit residential development at the historic Dubai Zoo site. Residents will have access to amenities centred around courtyards including a club house, wellness area, children’s play area, family pool, lounge and gym.  In 1967, the then Dubai Ruler, HH Sheikh Rashid, permitted Otto J Bulart to build a zoo on a two-hectare plot in Jumeirah. It was considered a Dubai landmark in the late 1960s as it indicated the “town’s end”. It finally closed down in 2017, with all the animals transferred to the new Dubai Safari Park.

According to Betterhomes, Jumeirah Bay Island is the best-performing waterfront property investment in Dubai, having gained 24% in value over the past twelve months, with the consultancy adding that it is ‘leading a wider trend across sought-after coastal communities like Palm Jumeirah, Bluewaters Island, and JBR’. It is estimated that the annual per sq ft price for a JBI residence has risen to US$ 1.123k – 24.4% on the year – compared to the 5.3% hike in Palm Jumeirah to US$ 1.000k. The report also added that “Dubai’s most sought-after waterfront neighbourhoods like Jumeirah Beach Residence, Jumeirah Bay Island, Palm Jumeirah, and Bluewaters Island are continuing to outperform, with average prices per sq ft rising between 8% and 10% year-on-year”.

Nakheel, part of Dubai Holding Real Estate, has awarded DBB Contracting three contracts, valued at over US$ 204 million for major infrastructure works on Palm Jebel Ali, including roads, utilities and support for future residential and commercial development; work is slated for completion by Q2 2026. The project is aligned with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, and will comprise seven islands, encompassing 13.4 km, featuring sixteen fronds and over ninety km of beachfront – all part of Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan.

A US$ 123 million construction contract has been awarded to Naresco Contracting for Central Park Plaza, by Meraas, part of Dubai Holding Real Estate. The twin tower building – one with twenty-three floors and the other with twenty – will house two hundred and twelve apartments, designed for modern urban living. The high-end residential development at City Walk is slated for completion by Q3 2027.

Omniyat has announced its latest project – “Gateway to Business Bay” – located on Sheikh Zayed Road, at the intersection of Business Bay and Downtown Dubai. The forty-eight-storey commercial tower, with a development value of almost US$ 1.0 billion, will feature an open-air Sky Theatre, a first-of-its-kind entertainment and event space located at the top of a commercial tower; it will add 650k sq ft of Grade A leasable office space, when it is completed in Q1 2029. All the ninety-one shell-and-core office units have been designed, with full fit-out flexibility.

Binghatti has announced that it is to set up an asset management company, with plans to manage about US$ 1.0 billion in private credit and real estate opportunities. The master developer’s Binghatti Capital Ltd, based in DIFC, will implement ‘separate mandates’ for the acquisition and sale of off plan residential properties. Its private credit solutions will focus on ‘supply chain financing’ in the real estate sector, by offering financing solutions to construction firms, property management entities and key suppliers.

This week saw Dubai Sotheby’s broker a US$ 100 million deal for a 90.0k sq ft freehold residential plot on Palm Jumeirah. Located on a frond tip position, with unobstructed views of Bluewaters Island, and the Dubai Marina skyline, this has become the island’s most expensive land transaction so far this year. The agency estimates that land prices on Palm Jumeirah have jumped 18.9% higher YTD, although transaction volumes have declined by 14.0%. With an influx of thousands of international buyers, seeking secure investments and waterfront living, it is no surprise to read that the Dubai Land Department has transacted over 7.7k plots in the first one hundred days of 2025. Last week, DLD registered 3.52k sales and US$ 4.2 billion in value.

Fully funded through a mix of equity and debt, Taaleem is buying a 95% stake in Kids First Group Ltd, which has thirty-four nurseries in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, offering four ‘distinct curricula through its prestigious brands’; they include Redwood Montessori Nursery, Odyssey Nursery, Willow Children’s Nursery, Ladybird Nursery and Children’s Oasis Nursery. The Dubai based school’s operator is one of the leading upscale early learning education providers in the Gulf, and Kids First Group Ltd, with 5k students, being one of the major players. Taaleem confirmed that “upon completion of the acquisition, KFG will operate as a standalone vertical within Taaleem’, with the founder and 5% shareholder of KFG ‘continuing to oversee the future growth, as the CEO’, and current staff operating under a new banner.

As part of the government’s strategy to make Dubai the best place in the world in which to live, work and invest, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has launched phase 2 of his Zero Bureaucracy Programme. In November 2023, the ZGB programme was set up to overhaul the current government work structure and to enhance service efficiency and quality. The programme was to eliminate redundant government procedures and requirements, in order to simplify the administrative process. Ministries and government entities were tasked with the immediate implementation of the programme, with targets including cancelling a minimum of 2k government measures, halving the time required for procedures, and removing all unnecessary bureaucracy by end of 2024. For example, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has reduced its total number of vehicle licensing services by 74.1%, from fifty-four to fourteen, in services as part of a major effort to enhance operational efficiency and deliver a seamless digital experience to customers.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, has expressed confidence that the country will achieve its non-oil foreign trade target to top AED 4.0 trillion, (US$ 1.09 trillion), four years ahead of its originally planned 2031 target. The Dubai Ruler also highlighted that the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade saw growth of 18.6%, on the year in Q1, to US$ 227.52 billon, adding that the “nation’s non-oil exports experienced exceptional growth, surging by 41% annually”. Non-oil exports account for over 21% of the UAE’s total non-oil foreign trade for the first time, whilst outpacing the growth of both reexports, (up 6.0% to US$ 51.5 billion) and imports – 17.2% higher at US$ 127.6 billion. He highlighted that “indicators of social, economic, and strategic stability and prosperity are at their highest historical levels. We are confident in an even brighter future, driven by the focused efforts of thousands of dedicated teams working to realise the UAE’s global ambitions”.

Q1 trade with its ten leading trading partners continued to move higher, at a rate of knots, growing by 20.2%, compared to 16.9% growth with the other remaining countries, with notable figures from Saudi Arabia, India, China and India of 127%, 31.0%, 9.6% and 8.3%. 2024 real GDP touched US$ 482 billion, 4.0% higher, with non-oil sectors accounting for 75.5% of the national economy, contributing US$ 365.7 billion to the economy – and oil-related activities US$ 118.3 billion. The five leading sectors driving the non-oil sector are transport/storage, building/construction, financial/insurance, hospitality and real estate growing by 9.6%, 8.4%, 7.0%, 5.7% and 4.8%. Activity-wise, trade, manufacturing, financial/insurance, construction/building and real estate contributed 16.8%, 13.5%, 13.2%, 11.7% and 7.8% of the non-oil GDP.

A UNCTAD report shows that the UAE accounted for 55.6% of total FDI inflows into the ME, totalling US$ 82.08 billion, a 4.7% increase on the year and ahead of Saudi Arabia (US$ 15.73 billion), Türkiye (US$ 10.59 billion), and Oman (US$ 8.68 billion), where returns declined on the year. The UAE’s outward FDI also saw moderate growth, rising by 4.8% to reach US$ 23.4 billion in 2024. The country was ranked tenth globally as a leading destination for inbound FDI, with an unprecedented US$ 45.6 billion in FDI inflows. It also ranked second globally, after the US, in attracting greenfield FDI projects, with 1.4k new projects announced last year. Sector-wise, software/IT services led announced FDI greenfield project values (11.5%), followed by business services (9.7%), renewable energy (9.3%), coal/oil/gas (9%), and real estate (7.8%). HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid noted, “our foundation is strong, our future is promising, and our focus on our goals is crystal clear. Our message is simple: development is the key to stability, and the economy is the most important policy.”

The latest UBS ‘Global Wealth Report 2025’ indicates that a further 13k were added to the ranks of UAE’s dollar millionaire resident base in 2024 – at an annual 5.8% increase to 240.3k; much of this increase is due to re-locations from overseas, as has been the case for the past four years now. (Last year, Turkiye posted an 8.4% increase, (equating to 7k in its number of dollar millionaires). Henley & Partners estimated that when it comes to HNWIs, there are 130.5k millionaires, including the 7.3k who arrived in the year – 53% higher on the year. Knight Frank has pointed to the influx of Saudi, Indian, Chinese and UK HNWIs committing sizable investments in the UAE. The 240.3k dollar-millionaires in the UAE have a combined wealth of US$ 785 million, slightly less than the 339.0 dollar-millionaires, with a combined wealth holdings of US$ 958.3 million in Saudi Arabia. When it comes to wealth distribution, around 62% of gross wealth is allocated to financial assets, such as real estate.  It is estimated that the average wealth per adult in the UAE is US$ 147.7k – compared to the likes of Switzerland, Hong Kong, Luxembourg and Australia, with average wealths of US$ 620.7k, US$ 601.2k, US$ 566.7k and US$ 516.6k

According to Emirates NBD Research, Dubai’s May headline CPI inflation nudged 0.1% higher to 2.4%; on the monthly measure, prices were 0.2% lower, following a 0.3% rise in April. Over the first five months of 2025, annual inflation has averaged 2.8%. However, most components of the basket continue to show only moderate price growth. 40% of the ‘CPI basket’ comprises housing and utilities prices and the ongoing high rentals in the emirate has maintained flat at 6.9% – and if this were taken out of the equation, then inflation would be at a much lower level. Fortunately, rentals have started slowing down and this in turn should impact the headline inflation rate by pushing it lower.  The two other main contributors in ‘the basket’ are food/beverage, (11.6%) and transport, (9.3%). The former rose 0.3% in the month, compared to a 0.2% dip in April, and the latter fell by 8.8% on the year, 1.1% higher than April’s return of 7.7%. It seems likely that the rate will continue to hover around its current level for the remainder of the year.

The regulator of the Dubai International Financial Centre has begun engagement with firms selected for its Tokenisation Regulatory Sandbox to co-develop bespoke testing plans, with trials within a controlled environment commencing in the coming weeks. It had received ninety-six expressions of interest, both locally and globally. The trial results will dictate future regulatory policy and potential refinements to the DFSA’s evolving digital assets and broader innovation frameworks. In 2021, the Dubai regulator introduced an Investment Token regime to regulate tokens, used as investment instruments, and implemented an enhanced Crypto Token regime in 2022 as a second-phase framework for classifying, recognising, and governing crypto tokens. This was followed in June 2024, when the DFSA further refined its approach with amendments – including streamlined token-recognition criteria and the first approvals of stablecoins – underscoring its commitment to adaptive, responsible innovation.

Bitcoin.com has joined the DMCC Crypto Centre – its first office in the MENA region.  This is another indicator that the DMCC has fast become a major hub for Web3 and blockchain innovation. The DMCC Crypto Centre, located in Uptown Tower, is now home to over six hundred and fifty companies, involved in various aspects of the blockchain and digital asset industry. Belal Jassoma, Director of Ecosystems, noted that “Bitcoin.com’s decision to establish its regional headquarters within our community highlights the global pull of the Crypto Centre and the scale of opportunity that Dubai represents today.” The centre offers comprehensive business services, mentorship, access to capital, and partnerships with global Web3 leaders. Bitcoin.com plans to leverage Dubai’s thriving digital economy, as well as contributing its global expertise to accelerate the growth of the regional crypto ecosystem. DMCC currently hosts over three thousand, two hundred tech companies, with over eight hundred within its integrated technology and innovation ecosystem, including the DMCC Gaming Centre and DMCC AI Centre.

After a decade of service in Pakistan, Dubai-based Careem is to suspend all its operations there as from 18 July 2025, driven by economic challenges, rising competition, and capital constraints. Launched in 2015, it soon became a dominant player in app-based mobility, but Careem’s exit reflects the strain on the country’s digital economy, as tech firms scale back amid high inflation, weak consumer demand, and tighter global capital flows. Uber left Pakistan in 2022 for the same reasons listed above, whilst newer entrants such as Russia-backed Yango and Latin America’s inDrive have expanded in major cities, offering low-cost models.

Sundus Exchange has had its licence revoked, and has been removed from the official register, by the Central Bank of the UAE, following regulatory examinations which uncovered serious violations of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws. Furthermore, it has been hit by a US$ 2.72 million penalty under Article 14 of the Federal Decree Law No. 20 of 2018. The central bank also reminded all stakeholders in exchange houses to comply strictly with national regulations to prevent financial crimes.

With its Vodafone’s latest share buyback programme, e& will still retain its 3,944.7 million shares in the UK company but will see its stake rise from 15.01% to 16.0%. In May 2022, the UAE telecom made its original investment in Vodafone Group Plc, and a year later entered into a strategic relationship, that established e& as a cornerstone shareholder of Vodafone. This agreement formalises collaboration, across a broad range of growth areas, as e& and Vodafone may be able to benefit from each other’s respective operational scale and complementary geographic footprint.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 16 June, one hundred and seventy-one points lower, (3.1%), on the previous week, shed thirteen points (0.2%), to close the trading week on 5,352 points, by Friday 20 June 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.22 lower the previous week, shed US$ 0.04, closing on US$ 3.38 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74 US$ 5.78 US$ 2.29 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.76, US$ 2.28 and US$ 0.41. On 20 June, trading was at two hundred and eighty-two million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and forty-six million dollars, compared to four hundred and sixty-two million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and ten million dollars on 13 June 2025.

By Friday, 20 June 2025, Brent, US$ 9.94 higher (15.6%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 2.84 (3.8%) to close on US$ 76.68. Gold, US$ 465 (15.6%) higher the previous three weeks, shed US$ 68 (2.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,385 on 20 June. The US Federal Reserve calculates that a US$ 10-per-barrel increase in the price of crude oil raises inflation by 0.2% and sets back economic growth by 0.1%.

It has been reported that Palliser Capital has now bought up to 5% of the London-listed travel retailer, WH Smith – valued at around US$ 88 million – just weeks after it had divested itself of its iconic high street arm. (The prominent activist investment firm recently led an effort to force Rio Tinto, the global mining group, to abandon its London listing in favour of Australia). It considers that returns to WH Smith shareholders may be enhanced by measures to ensure better use of its balance sheet, such as reviewing the travel retailer’s leverage targets and capital allocation policy, as well as improving investor communication and disclosure, and overhauling its executive incentive structure to align it more closely with the interests of shareholders. Its shares are still trading at levels seen during the pandemic, at a time when travel went to almost zero levels. Currently, it has a market cap of US$ 1.85 billion (10% lower on the year). It has more than 1.2k travel stores in over thirty countries. Palliser also looks upon the US as a growth market, and along with increasing investment in global airport infrastructure creating more opportunities for airport retailing, estimates that its share value could double over the next three years.

Hundreds more high street jobs are being put at risk as part of a sweeping overhaul of the embattled family-owned fashion retailer River Island which is looking at cutting its number of stores by 14.4% to one hundred and ninety-seven. Another seventy outlets could go if no suitable agreements are made with landlords. Ben Lewis, its chief executive, noted that “the well-documented migration of shoppers from the high street to online has left the business with a large portfolio of stores that is no longer aligned to our customers’ needs. The sharp rise in the cost of doing business over the last few years has only added to the financial burden”. Latest figures indicate that the 2023-year revenue fell 19.0% to US$ 780 million, with a pre-tax loss of US$ 45 million. New funding will be injected into the retailer if the restructuring plan is approved in August.

Over recent months, this blog has often mentioned how the London Stock Exchange has been struggling to keep listed companies. Investment bank, Peel Hunt, has indicated that it knows of thirty companies, with market values of over US$ 134 million, (GBP 100 million), that have left the bourse YTD, including twelve large enough for the FTSE 250. The latest ‘casualty’ is Assura, the US$ 2.5 billion-owner of GP surgeries, preferring a US private equity takeover over a domestic merger. Another is the FTSE 100 listed industrial hire group, Ashtead, (with profits dipping to US$ 2.85 billion), announcing it will be moving away to a US bourse early in 2026 citing that it was the “natural long-term listing venue” for the group and a shift would improve both its liquidity and profile in its biggest market. To make matters even worse for the LSE, there are active takeover bids this week for tech companies Spectris and Alphawave, which will see them delisting and moving ‘across The Pond’.

There are reports that Spanish bank Santander is one of several parties expressing interest in a takeover of UK high street bank, TSB. Reports indicate that it has approached its fellow Spanish banking group Sabadell, which had acquired TSB, from Lloyds Banking Group, in 2015, about a possible transaction involving TSB but as of last Wednesday, no formal offer was on the table. However, since it has been in contact with its Spanish peer, it shows that there is some interest in TSB. In line with other UK banks, Santander has been closing many branches, so that now it has three hundred and fifty operating in the UK; TSB have about 50% of that number. NatWest has already submitted a US$ 14.79 billion for Santander UK. Sabadell is in the middle of attempting to thwart a hostile takeover by rival Spanish bank BBVA.

Reports indicate that Metro Bank is in discussions about a possible takeover by buyout firm Pollen Street Capital; if this were to happen, it would be another nail in the coffin for the London Stock Exchange, as a further listed company would delist from the bourse. Pollen Street is one of the major shareholders in Shawbrook, a mid-sized bank which, in the past, has approached Metro Bank, (and also Starling Bank), about a possible merger. In November 2023, the high street lender was rescued through a US$ 1.25 billion deal, comprising US$ 440 million of equity – a third of which was contributed by Jaime Gilinski Bacal – and US$ 785 million of new debt; the Colombian billionaire now holds almost 53% of the bank. Since the bailout deal, Metro Bank has cut hundreds of jobs and sold portfolios of loan assets, whilst improving its operating performance. Shares in Metro Bank have more than trebled over the past twelve months, with a book value of some US$ 1.02 billion – well down on its 2018 level of US$ 4.74 billion. Last month, shareholders voted through a proposal which could see top executives being paid up to US$ 81 million apiece. With a possibility that a takeover was on the horizon, Metro Bank’s shares soared by 18.3% in Monday trading at its highest level in two years.

British Steel has secured a US$ 673 million, five-year contract to supply 337k tonnes of train tracks for Network Rail that could be a lifesaver for the Scunthorpe steelworks, as well as securing thousands of jobs. Two months ago, the Starmer government used emergency powers to prevent the blast furnaces from immediate closure by China’s Jingye, which had bought British Steel in 2020, of planning to shut down the plant’s blast furnaces. At the time, it took over control of British Steel but has so far stopped short of fully nationalising the business.  The contract will begin on 01 July, with the company continuing to provide Network Rail, with 80% of its track, needs and other European steelmakers to supply “specialist rail products” alongside,. The industry is still liable to pay a 25% Trump tariff on its exports to the US which is half the amount that other global steel companies will have to pay.

Bureaucracy must be the only reason why it has taken sixteen years – and US$ 1.61 billion – for permission to be given to build the Lower Thames Crossing, which will cost US$ 13.45 billion. The project – a twenty-three km road tunnel linking Tilbury in Essex and Gravesend in Kent, over four km of which will be under the River Thames – will be the UK’s longest road tunnel and has been granted US$ 794 million by the government. The Starmer administration is looking to source private finance  to finance the project, branding it a “national priority”. Construction should begin in 2026, ahead of an expected opening by 2032.

Despite the worrying state of the global economy, China continued its recovery trend last month, with its industrial added value, above designated size, increasing by an annual 5.8%. Most economic indicators headed north in May, including retail sales – 1.3% higher on the year to 6.4% – fixed asset investment, (up 3.7% YTD), and infrastructure, property, machinery and retail sales, by 3.7% YTD.

With Africa facing economically damaging Trump tariffs, China, on the other hand, has intimated that it is ready to drop them from all fifty-three African countries, (except for Eswatini excluded because it officially recognises Taiwan), with which it has diplomatic relations. The US tariffs include a 50% rate for Lesotho, 30% for South Africa and 14% for Nigeria. China has been the continent’s largest trading partner for the past fifteen years – with Africa exporting goods, to the world’s second biggest economy, worth around US$ 170 billion in 2023. When implemented, (no date has been fixed), it will be an extension of the deal made in 2024 for China to drop tariffs on goods from thirty-three African nations classified as “least developed”.

A consortium led by international energy investment company XRG, alongside Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) and global investment firm Carlyle, has submitted a final non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all ordinary shares of Australia’s second-largest gas producer, for US$ 5.76 per share in cash. The deal to acquire Santos Limited for US$ 18.7 billion represented a 28% premium on its last closing price of US$ 5.76. Although the Board has unanimously sanctioned the deal it is subject to a binding Scheme Implementation Agreement being reached, no superior proposal emerges, an independent expert concludes that the proposal is fair, reasonable, and in the best interests of shareholders and approval by regulators in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The consortium has already agreed to maintain the company’s Adelaide headquarters, brand, and operational footprint in Australia and key international hubs. Its strategy is to develop a leading integrated global gas and LNG business. This acquisition could make ADNOC one of world’s top four LNG producers, rivalling American oil giants Shell and Exxon Mobil in terms of LNG production.

In April, Macquarie agreed to sell, in a 100% stock purchase transaction, three of its companies to Nomura. They were Macquarie Management Holdings Inc, a Delaware corporation, Macquarie Investment Management Holdings (Luxembourg) Sà rl and
Macquarie Investment Management Holdings (Austria) GmbH. This month, using some of the funds from its April sale, the Australian company finalised a partnership with Macquarie Asset Management as a 40% investor in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, with an initial investment of US$ 2.4 billion, and a further US$ 3.0 billion option. DIS is a dedicated infrastructure company, with select U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets.

With the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan trying to divest its US$ 13.46 billion stake in its European airport portfolio, Australia’s infrastructure giant Macquarie Asset Management is in the market to acquire significant stakes of 25%, 27% and 55% in three major UK airports – London City, Birmingham and Bristol. Earlier in the year, Macquarie had sold its stakes in AGS Airports — Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton. London City Airport, often favoured by business travellers, has been a focal point of this renewed interest. Hopefully, the bank is aware that Birmingham City Council, which co-owns the West Midlands airport, declared bankruptcy last year. Meanwhile, the East London hub received regulatory approval last August to increase its annual passenger cap from 6.5 million to 9 million, although a bid to extend its Saturday operating hours was rejected. In 2023, the airport saw traffic grow from 2.9 million to 3.4 million passengers. This possible purchase shows that the Australian group is hoping to become a major foreign investor in the UK – a move that will delight the embattled Labour administration crying out for foreign investment. Last October, the bank unveiled plans to invest US$ 26.71 billion in the UK over the next five years

However, the bank has faced criticism for its role in the financial and environmental woes of Thames Water, which is now battling mounting debts and public pressure over pollution. Macquarie Group led a consortium that acquired Thames Water in 2006 and gradually reduced their stake, eventually selling their remaining 26.3% interest in 2017. While Macquarie invested in upgrades to Thames Water’s infrastructure, they also took on significant debt to finance the acquisition, which is now a major point of contention. The prospective acquisition underlines Macquarie’s positioning as a key foreign investor in UK infrastructure, even as its past ownership of Thames Water continues to draw political scrutiny.

After agreeing to yield unusual control to the US government, Japanese firm Nippon Steel has completed its long-sought takeover of US Steel, in a US$ 14.80 billion purchase agreement; this will create one of the world’s biggest steelmakers and turns Nippon into a major player in the US. Nippon agreed to pay US$ 55 per share and take on the company’s debt, as well as to invest US$ 11.0 billion by 2028.  In the run-up to the 2024 election, there had been concerns about the foreign acquisition of one of the last major steel producers in the US, but Donald Trump finally agreed after the Nippon concessions satisfied his national security apprehensions. The Japanese company

also granted the US government a “golden share” in the company, giving the government say over key decisions, including the transfer of jobs or production outside of the US, and certain calls to close or idle factories. It also committed to maintain its HQ in Pittsburgh and install US citizens to key management positions including its chief executive and the majority of its board.

It has been a busy seven days for the septuagenarian US president, who celebrated his seventy-ninth birthday last Saturday. Three days earlier, he signed off on the Sino-US trade treaty, and on Sunday flew to Kananaskis for the G7 summit and yesterday he signed an executive order to reduce the 25% tariff to 10%, on 100k UK cars being shipped to the US, but kept the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, (most other countries face a 50% levy), and 10% on most UK goods. In return, the UK has scrapped a 20% tariff, within a quota of 1k metric tonnes of US beef, and raised the quota to 13k metric tonnes, and no tariff on ethanol up to US$ 700 million. The latest deal is a watered-down version of the one the UK prime minister signed in Washington last month. On top of that, he still has to call what action the US will take to put an end to the Iranian/Israeli ‘war’.

Whilst retaining rates unchanged, at 4.25%, the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would cut borrowing costs twice this year amid growing Trump pressure for less robust monetary policy. As expected, the Bank of England’s monetary polcy committee followed suit, keeping rates at 4.25%, by a 6 – 3 majority, Over the past ten months, rates have fallen four times. The Central Bank of the UAE also decided to maintain the base rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility at 4.40%, in line with earlier decision from The Fed.

UK’s headline rate of inflation, in May, nudged 0.1% lower to 3.4%, driven by falling air fares, offset by rising food prices, (including chocolate because of a global cocoa shortage because of  poor harvests and in beef down to higher costs and rising global demand), and the higher cost of furniture and household goods.  The BoE expects inflation to hit 3.7% in September. It seems that Rachel Reeves could be right to say that there is “more to do” to bring inflation under control. Core CPI inflation – a measure that strips out volatile elements such as energy and food – eased 0.3% to 3.5%, while services inflation fell 0.7% to 4.7%.

The Confederation of British Industry has forecast a further slowdown in UK growth this year – by 0.4% to 1.2% – and next down to 1.0%. The CBI has warned that UK economic growth is being impacted by businesses facing higher employment costs, rising inflation and headwinds from the global trading environment.

Everyone can agree with the UK Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, who commented that HS2 is an “appalling mess” and that there had been a “litany of failure” surrounding the high-speed rail project, which will not be completed by its target date of 2033. She added that despite the project being downsized – with routes to Leeds and Manchester cancelled – it could still become “one of the most expensive railway lines in the world, with projected costs soaring by GBP 37 billion, (US$ 49.78 billion),” from when it was approved in 2012 to when the Tories lost the general election last year. She added cancelling it would be a “waste” of more than GBP 30 billion, (US$ 40.36 billion), already spent, and said there were “significant capacity constraints between Birmingham and London” that HS2 could address.

To be introduced so as to “restrict Putin’s war machine”, the UK prime minister is expected to unveil new sanctions against Russia, with the aim of the exercise to increase economic pressure on the Kremlin to show Vladimir Putin “it is in his and Russia’s interests to demonstrate he is serious about peace”. Downing Street said the new sanctions package would aim to keep up “pressure on Russian military industrial complex” but did not provide further details. The US will not be joining the other members of G7 in this latest plan. Eighteen months ago, the bloc had agreed to cap the price of Russian crude oil at US$ 60 per barrel, making that a condition of access to western ports and shipping insurance – this has not been an effective sanction mainly because the oil market price has dipped to almost that level.

However, a Sky News report notes that even though Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world,  it is still possible to buy western goods three years after they had been introduced. What seems to be happening is that as they are not directly coming into the country, but coming by ‘parallel imports’ entering the country via third countries, without the trademark owner’s permission. (Parallel imports were legalised to sidestep sanctions and to shield consumers from the impact of a mass exodus of foreign brands). The report gave the example of Coca Cola, which ceased operations here in 2022; on the same shelf in a Moscow supermarket, the drinks had been made in the UK, France, Poland and even Iraq. The same practice is being used on some sanctioned goods, like luxury cars, where they have arrived in Russia maybe via three, or even more, countries.

On Monday, the FTSE 100 hit a new record high of 8,884 points – 8.6% higher YTD – and this despite a miserable April when everything from household bills to tax to wages all headed in one direction, up – except for the UK economy contracting 0.3%. Over the same period, the DAX had risen by almost 20%. The main driver behind these figures has been Trump’s tariffs. Going forward, the outlook for the UK is uncertain, as all economies rely on trade which has many problems facing it, attributable to a raft of factors such as the Israeli Iranian proxy war, deadline dates drawing nearer to settle US tariffs, surging energy prices and eco-political global unrest. It ended the week on 8,775.

Today, the Office for National Statistics posted that there had been a monthly 2.4% decline in the quantity of goods bought last month, compared to April’s 1.3% growth return, because  of “inflation and customer cutbacks” accounting for the fall; this was felt across all categories, but led by food. May was the month when households would have noticed the hit from the so-called “awful April” above-inflation hikes to essential bills, including council tax, water, mobiles, broadband and energy, along with Trump tariffs. Furthermore, May also saw a 109k decline in payrolled employment, unemployment levels nudging higher to 4.6% and a US$ 2.43 billion jump in additional “compulsory social contributions” – largely made up of NICs – in May. Retail is the UK’s largest private sector employer – and it shows how this sector is being impacted by the October budget.

Another week and another U-turn by Keir Starmer who has set up a new national inquiry into grooming gangs, after he had earlier robustly argued that a national enquiry was unnecessary. His view has changed following the release of a report by Baroness Casey that laid out details of institutional failures in treating young girls and cites a decade of lost action from the 2014 Jay Review to investigate grooming gangs in Rotherham. The report also touches on the link between illegal immigration with the exploitation of young girls. There are some who may thank Elon Musk for this U-turn, as he had attacked the prime minister and the safeguarding minister, Jess Philips, earlier in the year, for failing children in the UK. At the time, both took the high ground and hit back at the tech billionaire, with the former citing his record of pressing charges against abusers, when he was the director of public prosecutions, and the latter claiming that Musk’s claims were ‘ridiculous’, and that she would be led by what victims have to say, not him.

A day after Rachel Reeves delivered her fairly upbeat spending plans, news was that the UK economy had shrunk by 0.3%, attributable to business taxes having increased in April, council/energy costs rising for households/businesses, and exports to the US slumping.  Her target has been to boost growth, with funding increases for the NHS and defence, and she has indicated that tax cuts have not been ruled out. It seems that the Chancellor is continuing to fail to acknowledge that there is every chance she will fail to see the economy grow. That being the case, tax increases are all but inevitable, more so because of a weaker economic outlook and the unfunded changes to winter fuel payments; this follows the U-turn after the results of local elections that saw US$ 22.67 billion going to nuclear power projects, including US$ 19.28 billion for the new Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk, and US$ 21.18 billion for transport spending in England’s city regions. Such investments will take years to make an economic impact.

Yet another U-Turn on the horizon could be Rachel Reeves reversing her decision to charge inheritance tax on the global assets of non-domiciles. The high number of wealthy individuals leaving the country, because of this tax change, has surprised the Chancellor and could result in “Rachel from Accounts” losing her job. It seems that both the Labour government, and the Chancellor, are fast Running Out Of Ideas!

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Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word!

Posted on June 13, 2025 by howesdubai

Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word!                   13 June 2025

According to consultancy Cavendish Maxwell, with 73k new homes slated for delivery by 2025, and an ambitious target of 300k units by the end of 2028, Dubai is undergoing one of the most significant residential expansions in its history. Assuming a 6% population growth, there will be 4.878 million residing in the emirate by the end of 2028, and assuming that the number of units at the end of 2024 was at 860k, there would be 1.160 million units, (860k + 300k), in 2028, split between 948.6k apartments, (housing 3.889 million), and 211.4k villas, (housing 1.120 million); this shows that 5.009 million will be housed – a gap of only 131k. (This is based on the assumption that the average apartment will house 4.1 people and the average villa 5.3). However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there still will be an inventory shortage in 2028. However, it is all but inevitable that this almost five-year bull run will eventually come to a soft landing, as some major global economic event(s) hit(s) consumer/investor confidence.

There is no argument that the market is softening, as witnessed in Q1 which recorded a 10% decline on the quarter but was still 23% higher on the year. The average Q1 price increase of 2.8% was lower than the 4.0% a year earlier pointing to both a stabilising and a maturing market. During the period, the ninety-five launches will, at the earliest hit the market by H2 2027. About 9.3k of these units were completed, with villas/townhouses accounting for almost 20% of the total, and apartments the balance. As noted in previous blogs, Jumeirah Village Circle led the field with 4.33k units and 3.33k apartment sales.in both completions and transactions.

Increasing by 32% on the year, the 29k off-plan sales, accounting for 70% of the total, contributed US$ 21.12 billion In the secondary market, there was 6.6% annual rise, to 13.2k transactions, with apartments accounting for 76% of the total, townhouses 17% and villas 7%. When it comes to luxury homes, (considered to be over US$ 5.45 million), there was a 22.9% annual hike to five hundred and ninety homes; 67% of sales were for off plan properties, whilst the average property price was up 16% to US$ 418 per sq ft.

There was a marked slowdown in rentals, with Q1, 1.0% higher on the quarter, compared to 14.4% on the year, (the slowest pace in two years), driven by the growing supply of new units and the implementation of the Dubai Smart Rental Index. Although some areas, such as Dubai Investments Park, International City, and Downtown Jebel Ali, still have 10.3% rental returns for apartments, and Industrial City with a 6.0% villa rental return, average rental yields  for apartments and villas at 7.3% and 6.0% remain attractive.

According to fäm Properties, Dubai saw May property sales worth US$ 18.20 billion – 49.9% higher, compared to May 2024 – whilst the 18.69k monthly transactions is the second-highest month on record for volume. In May 2020, there were 1.4k transactions, valued at  only 627 million – how times have changed over the past five years!

Despite some doomsayers pointing to a 15% correction by the end of the year, there is no doubt that the emirate’s real estate market will continue its upward trend for the remainder of 2025, driven by robust economic performance, growing foreign investment, and evolving buyer behaviour. With prices in ‘old’ Dubai reaching new highs and presenting an affordability question for an increasing number of investors, they are expanding their reach to new outlying

communities, mid-market opportunities, and assets with stable long-term returns. This is in an environment where economic indicators point to a very healthy Dubai economy – GDP is expected to grow by 5% – 6%, diversification policies now see non-oil sector accounting for 70% of Dubai’s economy, the DFM having reached a seventeen-year high, FDI 15% higher on the year and local tourism is booming, (up 7.0% to 7.15m in the first four months of 2025).

Meraas has launched the twin tower, Jumeirah Residences Emirates Towers, featuring seven hundred and fifty-four branded residences. The development, with a distinctive cantilevered architectural form and designed by SCDA Architects, will house one-to-four-bedroom apartments. Both towers offer sweeping views of the Museum of the Future and Downtown Dubai, with each residence having complete privacy. There will be a private entrance under the striking cantilever leading to a double-height lobby, serene garden courtyard and lounge. The three exclusive sky terraces feature infinity-edge pools, landscaped lounges and open-air entertainment spaces. Other features will include a state-of-the-art fitness centre, with dedicated studios, an executive co-working lounge, a private cinema, a resort-style family pool, padel courts, a children’s play zone and well-curated social and dining venues. Residents will have access to bespoke wellness treatments, personal fitness coaching, twenty-four-hour concierge services and vehicle management; they will also have access to private chefs.

This week saw Dubai South Properties launch of ‘South Square’, a new luxury residential development, located along Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Road, and near to Al Maktoum International Airport. Located within the project, ‘S4 Tower’ was completely sold out within just three hours. South Square offers five hundred and fifty apartments, with completion slated for Q4 2028. 2024 residential sales in Dubai South exceeded US$ 5.18 billion.

The last two penthouses, at Bulgari Lighthouse on Jumeirah Bay Island, have sold for a combined US$ 77 million plus. A five-bedroom residence, spanning 11.7k sq ft, garnered US$ 40 million and the other for US$ 77 million. The project – with less than forty residences -was designed by Antonio Citterio and Patricia Viel. It has a ‘coral-inspired façade’ shielding each home ‘while framing uninterrupted views of the Arabian Gulf and Downtown’s skyline’. Terraces feature private infinity pools, and ‘double-height salons are finished in Italian marble, warm oak and hand-laid silk panelling’.

H&H has launched Eden House Za’abeel, with architecture by DXB Lab, complemented by Tristan Auer’s interiors and landscaping by Vladimir Djurovic. The building’s distinctive textured concrete facade and a sculptural silhouette will make it stand out in the area, with the tower enveloped in pockets of rich greenery, including open courtyards. The development comprises a range of one-to-three-bedroom apartments, with prices starting at US$ 1.29 million, and built-up areas from 1.13k sq ft to 3.04k sq ft. Completion is slated for June 2028.

Some forget that there is more to Dubai’s real estate sector than the residential sector, and includes commercial, industrial, retail, and hospitality segments. All indicators point to upward momentum in all sectors, mainly driven by strong investor demand, new economic policies, and a continued appetite for prime space. JLL’s Q1 2025 Market Dynamics report shows Dubai office occupancy rates has just 8.6% vacancy – a new low – with prime areas having a near-zero vacancy rate (0.2%).

Industrial and warehouse rents continue to surge with warehouse rents climbing 12.5% on the quarter. Dubai’s top-tier malls posted a mega 29.5% jump, at US$ 225 per sq ft, as super-regional and regional malls came in with average 9.0% rentals.

With a Q1 2.5% increase in overnight visitors, to 5.31 million, economic indicators registered impressive returns; average occupancy was at 82.2%,  average daily rate, 28.1% higher on the year, at US$ 206, as revenue per available revenue rose to US$ 165. It is estimated that there will be 4.7k new keys by year-end, mostly in the luxury segment.

Following the successful launch of Dubai’s first tokenised property in May 2025, which was fully subscribed within twenty-four hours, the second off the block was Kensington Waters at Mohammed Bin Rashid City. With a total valuation of US$ 409k, with fractional ownership starting at US$ 545. DLD’s second tokenised real estate project, which attracted one hundred and forty-nine investors from thirty-five nationalities, sold out in a record one minute and 58 seconds, marking a world-first for blockchain-backed property investment speed. Participants in the project received official Property Token Ownership Certificates, issued by the DLD, ensuring legal recognition of their fractional ownership. The tokenisation platform, PRYPCO Mint, is operated as a joint initiative between Dubai Land Department and PRYPCO and is licensed by the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.

As it is working on a US$ 812 million land deal, with Amlak Finance, to buy a land package in Ras Al Khor, it was welcome news that Emaar Properties’ credit rating has won an upgrade from both S&P Global and Moody’s. The ratings upgrade from S&P and Moody’s puts ‘Emaar’s position as a financially resilient and strategically agile market leader’. S&P upgraded Emaar’s long-term issuer credit rating to BBB+ from BBB, and Moody’s to Baa1 from Baa2 with a stable outlook. As of end March 2025, Emaar had a revenue backlog of about US$ 34.6 billion, providing for ‘strong revenue and cash flow visibility through 2028’.

What will become the emirate’s largest privately-owned logistics development has been announced by two Dubai companies – Dutco and Sweid & Sweid. Terralogix, a 3.3 million sq ft project, will be located in Warsan, an area of Dubai that has comparatively limited industrial development, at a time when demand is at all-time high. Construction of Phase One is already underway, with completion scheduled for Q3 2026. The founder of one of the stakeholders, Maher Sweid, noted that “together, we will be delivering Terralogix as a landmark project to spearhead the evolution of Dubai’s industrial sector”. The development is well located with direct links to major highways and easy access to Dubai’s airports and seaports.

Last December, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority announced that it awarded a  US$ 5.59 billion contract to three prominent Turkish and Chinese companies – Mapa, Limak, and CRRC – to construct the emirate’s new Blue Line. It will carry 46k passengers per hour – each way – and will service nine key districts across the city — Mirdif, Al Warqa, International City 1 and 2, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Academic City, Ras Al Khor Industrial Area, Dubai Creek Harbour, and Dubai Festival City. The development will span thirty km, with twenty-eight trains, bringing the current railway network to seventy-eight stations and one hundred and thirty-one km. It will feature fourteen stations, including three interchange stations: Creek Station at Al Jaddaf on the Green Line, Centrepoint Station at Al Rashidiya on the Red Line, and International City 1 Station on the Blue Line; five of the stations  will be underground, one of which will be the largest underground interchange station in the network, spanning over 44k sq mt,  with a projected daily capacity of 350k. The new line will also include the first Dubai Metro bridge crossing Dubai Creek, which is expected to stretch over an area of 1.3k mt. It is expected that the first trip on the Blue Line will take place on 09 September 2029 – twenty years after Dubai Metro was inaugurated at exactly the ninth second of the ninth minute at 9pm on 09-09-2009. It was no coincidence that the Dubai Ruler laid the foundation stone for the new Metro line on 09 June.

During the ceremony, the design of the Emaar Properties station — the highest Metro station in the world, at seventy-four mt and covering some eleven sq mt— was unveiled, showcasing a regal golden cylinder-like structure, with motifs embossed on its exterior. The RTA revealed that Emaar had secured the naming rights for the station for the next ten years, starting from its official inauguration in 2029. The design for the new station, inspired by the concept of a crossing gateway, was designed by the renowned American architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM),

It was not long ago that many so-called analysts were forecasting the end of cryptocurrencies, but they have been proved wrong, as they are rapidly becoming part of life in Dubai. Last month, an agreement, between Dubai’s Department of Finance and Crypto.com, will enable digital payments for government services. With adoption rates surging, residents can already pay utility bills, food bills etc in an increasing number of establishments.

The FT has posted that a special judicial committee in Dubai has reportedly asked the parent company of MAF to restructure its board, trying to end years of turmoil, after the death of its billionaire founder, and secure the future of the owner. The group’s founder, Majid Al Futtaim, died in 2021, with Dubai’s Ruler, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, establishing a special judicial committee to look after his estate; two of its aims are to look after the estate and guide it through generational change. MAF Capital, which oversees its group of companies, has stated that the changes “reflect a shareholder-led effort to evolve governance in line with the long-term interests of the Group. These changes do not affect the operations or governance of Majid Al Futtaim Holding. Majid Al Futtaim continues to operate under an independent board and strong oversight.” MAF’s revenue topped US$ 9.0 billion in 2024.

Alvarez & Marsal’s latest report indicates that the Q1 aggregate net income of the top ten local banks in the country surged, quarter on quarter, by 8.4%, to US$ 6.05 billion. They shape over 80% of the UAE’s banking activity, providing a reliable proxy for sectoral trends. Growth was reported in deposits by 5.8%, (driven by a robust 7.6% rise in current and savings accounts outrunning loan increases), as operating expenses declined by 7.8%. The top ten listed banks assessed in the report was headed by First Abu Dhabi Bank, with Emirates NBD, Dubai Islamic, Mashreq, and Commercial Bank of Dubai ranked second, fourth, fifth and seventh respectively. The local banking sector has been benefitting from a healthy economic environment, progressive government policies and an upbeat economy.

RAKBank, in partnership with RFI Global, released its latest SME Confidence Index, covering 1.2k UAE-based SMEs, and collected in Q4 2024, highlighting a promising outlook for sector. The SME Confidence Index dipped four points, on the year, to 57, measured against a base score of 50, with the findings reflecting a stable and optimistic sentiment against a dynamic economic environment. 68% of SMEs surveyed saw the future business environment as favourable, and more than 60% reporting revenue growth over the past two years. The report noted that consumer and retail services remain the highest-performing sector, attributable to a continued rise in consumer spending. While consumer and retail services SMEs achieved a sector confidence score of 60, construction and manufacturing (57), transport (57), and trading (58) remained steady in confidence, while public services and professional services saw more notable declines to 56, largely due to increased costs and lower confidence in debt servicing. Over 67% of SMEs experienced higher operational costs, while only 39% expressed confidence in meeting debt obligations, down from last year. 22% of SMEs now sell their products or services online, and 45% use digital banking channels monthly. RAKBank has over US$ 2.72 billion exposure to the SME segment and has recently strengthened its SME lending through a US$ 272 million co-financing partnership with Emirates Development Bank.

Under its US$ 20 billion Global Medium Term Note Programme, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited listed three, three-year Green Bond issuances totalling US$1.72 billion on Nasdaq Dubai. The listings included ICBC Hong Kong Branch, Singapore Branch and Dubai (DIFC) Branch for US$ 1.0 billion Floating Rate Notes, US$ 300 million 4.125% Notes and CNH 3.0 billion 2.00% Notes. The bank is both the leading Chinese issuer and the leading RMB denominated bond issuer on the bourse, with a cumulative total of US$ 5.6 billion outstanding bonds in the UAE. Following this listing, Nasdaq Dubai’s total debt listings have reached US$ 136.0 billion, including US$ 40.0 billion in bonds and US$17.0 billion in Green Bonds. The exchange’s ESG, (environmental, social and governance) related issuance portfolio stands at US$ 29.0 billion.

Last week, Nasdaq Dubai welcomed Mashreq’s début first US$ 500 million listing, issued under Mashreq’s US$ 2.5 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme. The five-year Trust Certificates are being admitted as a secondary listing following strong demand in the primary market. This marks an important milestone for Mashreq as it makes a successful return to the international debt capital markets and strengthens its presence in the Islamic finance space. The orderbook was 5.8 times oversubscribed, with participation by over ninety global investors, with a fixed profit rate of 5.03% pa. This issue takes the total value of Sukuk listed on Nasdaq Dubai to US$ 97.2 billion, with the overall value of debt securities listed on Nasdaq Dubai at US$ 140 billion, across one hundred and sixty-three issuances. These figures point to Nasdaq Dubai’s position as one of the world’s largest centres for Islamic fixed income and Dubai’s enhanced appeal as a gateway for regional and international investment.

Last Tuesday, shares of the Emirates Islamic Bank stopped trading on the Dubai Financial Market, after Emirates NBD decided to buy up all shares in EIB not held by it.  At the mandatory February offer date, ENBD owned 5.42 billion shares in EIB, which adds up to 99.89% of the latter’s ordinary share capital. EIB will continue to operate under the normal course of business and maintain its operations, working as the Islamic banking subsidiary of ENBD.

Announcing its first dividend since 2019, the Dubai-listed Emirates REIT has confirmed a final cash dividend. This was approved by shareholders of the parent entity, Equitativa (Dubai), to distribute a final cash dividend of $7 million (or $0.02 per ordinary share) for the 2024 period.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 09 June, six hundred and eighty-two points higher, (13.4%), on the previous nine weeks, took a hit of one hundred and seventy-one points (3.1%), to close the trading week on 5,365 points, by Friday 13 June 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.06 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.22, closing on US$ 3.42 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75 US$ 6.02 US$ 2.31 and US$ 0.44 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 5.78, US$ 2.29 and US$ 0.41. On 13 June, trading was at four hundred and sixty-two million shares, with a value of US$ three hundred and ten million dollars, compared to three hundred and eighty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars on 04 June 2025.

By Friday, 13 June 2025, Brent, US$ 2.63 higher (2.2%) the previous week, gained US$ 7.31 (11.0%) to close on US$ 73.84. Gold, US$ 207 (6.6%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 129 (3.9%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,453 on 13 June.

After the initial attack by Israel and the retaliation by Iran, concerns mounted about disruptions to the ME oil supply. Consequently, Brent crude futures jumped nearly 8.9% on Friday morning – its highest level since 27 January 2025 and the highest intraday move since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. It does seem that the ailing Israeli prime minister, BiBi is aiming to rule the world as he wants to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon but has no problems with his country having nuclear capability. The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. To date, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s supply passes through, is still open as usual. What next? In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc, whilst Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies sank.

It seems that every man and his dog come up with a global economic forecast and then amends it every three months because they got it wrong in the first place. On the world stage, the three biggest culprits are the IMF, OECD and the World Bank. This week, it appears to be the latter’s turn to predict that the economy will see the slowest decade for global growth since the 1960s, as the effect of Donald Trump’s tariffs are felt – and to prove its point, the bank has cut nearly two thirds of the world’s nations forecasts. It now sees 2025 growth to come in on 2.3%, compared to its 2.7% forecast in January. Guess what the OECD has decided – to cut global growth forecast by 0.2% to 2.9%.

Suzuki Motors becomes the first Japanese car maker to become a casualty from China’s April restriction on its rare earth exports, having to suspend production of its flagship Swift subcompact. Production, except for the Swift Sport version, was halted on 26 May; full resumption is expected to return on 16 June, as the “prospect of parts supply is clearer”. China’s decision has spooked many industries, with dependency on a wide range of rare earths and related magnets, has upended the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors. Many automakers have become concerned that this will have a negative knock-on impact on production, with some European auto parts plants having suspended output and/or ways to protect against shortages of rare earths.

There are reports that struggling River Island is drawing up a radical rescue plan which could put significant numbers of stores and jobs at risk. The family-owned well-known clothing chain employs over 5.5k in its two hundred and thirty stores. Disappointing 2023 financials indicated that its turnover dropped 19% to US$ 782 million resulting in a US$ 45 million loss.

In its latest accounts at Companies House, River Island Holdings Limited warned of a multitude of financial and operational risks to its business, including increasing competition, supply chain disruption and increased economic uncertainty. Some of the blame must be laid at the door of Chancellor Rachel Reeves who, in her October budget, announced tax changes, including raising employers’ national insurance contributions by 1.2% to 15.0%. This added an estimated US$ 9.8 billion in extra costs for retailers. Over the past seven months since her budget, Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop have been forced to seek new owners, with the same ending looking likely for Poundland, the discount retail chain.

SponsorUnited, which tracks sponsorship and advertising across all sports, estimates that Formula 1’s 2024 revenue touched US$ 2.04 billion, second only to the NFL’s US$ 2.5 billion in total sponsorship revenue; it is well ahead of other sports organisations including the likes of NBA, MLB and NHL. Another estimate, from Liberty Media, expects F1’s revenue to climb by at least 20%, to over US$ 2.5 billion, this year. The largest sponsor for any F1 team is the Williams US$ 30 million contract, with Australian software corporation Atlassia, whilst Pepsi, with a ten year US$ 2.0 billion, has the most significant singular sponsorship commitment in the NFL this gives the company exclusive rights at all NFL events and use of the league’s trademark in advertising. This compares to F1’s top individual sponsor agreement a ten-year US$ 1 billion pact with luxury conglomerate LVMH, which holds a portfolio anchored by TAG Heuer, Louis Vuitton and Hennessy.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation has forecast a 2.1% record hike in global cereal production of 2.911 million tonnes, as worldwide consumption of cereals is predicted to grow by 0.9%, with feed use expanding by 0.5%; it is expected that world cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 1.0% in 2025/26 to 873.6 million tonnes, after contracting in the previous year.  Next year, global cereal trade is also predicted to rebound by 1.9% to 487.1 million tonnes, including a 3.8% growth in wheat trade expected but an 0.7% contraction for rice.

Q1 Eurostat figures indicate that the EU, seasonally adjusted GDP increased, on the quarter, by 0.6% both in the euro area, by 0.3% and in the EU, (0.4%); compared with Q1 2024, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU in Q1 2025. The top three nations, with the highest increases, were Ireland, with a very impressive 9.7%, Malta and Cyprus with 2.1% and 1.3%. Highest decreases, posting contractions, were Luxembourg, Slovenia, Denmark and Portugal with 1.0%, 0.8%, 0.5% and 0.5%. In Q4, employment had increased by 0.1% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU, with Q1 figures showing 0.7% and 0.4% rises over the year; Q4 annual increases were 0.8% and 0.6%. Nations with the highest and lowest increases in Q1, were Croatia and Spain, (with 1.0% and 0.8%)), and Romania (-2.1%), Estonia (-0.8%), Lithuania and Poland (both -0.6%). Based on seasonally adjusted figures, it is estimated that in Q1, 219.8 million people were employed in the EU, of which 171.6 million were in the euro area.

Having once seen the bare-foot MF Husain in Dubai, it was interesting to read that twenty-five of his paintings were auctioned yesterday in Mumbai; they had been locked up in a bank vault since 2008. Indian authorities had seized them from businessman Guru Swarup Srivastava who had acquired them from the artist in a  billion rupees deal; the CBI later alleged he and associates had misused a loan from a government-backed agricultural body. Often called the “Picasso of India,” he was one of the country’s most celebrated – and controversial – artists. His works have fetched millions, but his bold themes often drew criticism. He died in 2011, aged 95. It was rumoured that he had two villas in Emirates Hills – one to live in and the second his art gallery.

Qantas’ low-cost arm, and Singapore-based budget airline, Jetstar Asia is to close down at the end of July, (with the loss five hundred jobs), but this will not impact the operations of Australia-based Jetstar Airways, nor those of Jetstar Japan. It appears that the carrier, which has been running for over twenty years, has been badly impacted by rising supplier costs, high airport fees and increased competition in the region. Sixteen routes across Asia will be impacted by the shutdown, including flights from Singapore to destinations in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Its closure will provide Qantas with US$ 326 million, (AUD 500 million), to invest towards renewing its fleet of aircraft, as it will also redeploy thirteen planes for routes across Australia and New Zealand. The discount airline is set to make a US$ 23 million loss this financial year.

This week’s figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that for the first time ever, the average home in the country is now worth more than AUD 1 million, (US$ 652k) as at the end of Q1, up 0.7% on the quarter; there are some 11.3 million dwellings in the country whose population will touch twenty-seven million in the coming months, and growing at the rate of 2.3%.  While the average price of homes climbed in all states and territories, the annual growth rate is slowing. A dearth of social housing rental availability has also been a problem in recent years, further exacerbated by not enough social housing to meet demand either. Driven by a gamut of reasons – including inadequate investment in social housing, a growing population, an inventory shortfall, too much red tape, and tax incentives for property investors – the country has an increasing number of its population unable to buy or rent residential property, making Australia home to some of the least affordable cities in the world. In recent years, the problem has continued to worsen as home prices continually outpaced wages – widening the affordability gap and the net not only to catch lower income households but starting to also catch medium-income households. Australia is not the only country in the world grappling with a housing affordability crisis there are many other countries – including the UK and Canada – facing the same conundrum.

In May, China’s foreign exchange reserves nudged 0.11% higher, on the month, to US$ 3.2853 trillion at the end of May. It is reported that the increase was due to the combined effects of currency exchange rate movements and changes in asset prices. With the country’s economy recovering, and the quality of economic development improving, China’s foreign exchange reserves are becoming more stable.

May China’s exports rose 4.8%, on the year, (following an 8.1% hike in April) lower than expected as shipments to the US fell nearly 10%. Imports declined 3.4%, leaving a trade surplus of US$ 103.2 billion. China exported US$ 28.8 billion to the US in May, while its imports from the US fell 7.4% to US$ 10.8 billion.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met their Chinese counterparts, including vice premier, He Lifeng, in London for talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies that has kept global markets on edge. This comes after Donald Trump spoke with President Xi Jinping last Thursday and agreed to visit one another in a rare leader-to-leader call. Both countries have been sniping at each other, as the economic environment has become increasingly tense. China is concerned that the US has curtailed key imports including chip-design software and nuclear plant parts, and the global economic impact of Trump tariffs whilst China is closely controlling over the rare earth mineral exports of which it is the dominant producer. Last month both nations pulled a ninety-day deal to roll back some of the triple-digit, tit-for-tat tariffs they had placed on each other. After two days, both parties had agreed in principle to a framework for de-escalating trade tensions which will include the lifting of restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets and that tariffs on Chinese goods will go to 55%. In return, Trump said the US will provide China “what was agreed to,” including allowing Chinese students to attend American colleges and universities. He wrote on social media that a trade deal with China is “done.” China reiterated that the two sides should act in the same direction, keep their promises and fulfill their actions, show the spirit of integrity in abiding by their commitments and the efforts to implement the consensus.

With the US adding Switzerland to a list of countries being monitored for unfair currency and trade practices, the Swiss National Bank confirmed it would intervene in foreign currency markets where necessary to keep inflation on track. After last week’s publication of the US Treasury Report, the SNB repudiated that it was a currency manipulator and confirmed it would continue to act in Switzerland’s interests as the strong franc helped push inflation into negative territory in May. It also indicated that last year, the SNB bought only US$ 1 billion in foreign currencies, equating to just 0.1% of the Swiss GDP, well below the Treasury’s threshold of 2%of economic output. Ireland has also been added to the US list which includes China, Germany, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam,

Not surprisingly, April US imports decreased at record levels, ahead of the impact of Trump tariffs, as the trade gap slumped by 55.5%, to US$ 61.6 billion. Imports decreased by a record 16.3% to US$ 351.0 billion, with goods imports diving by a record 19.9% to US$ 277.9 billion, including a US$ 33.0 billion decline in imports of consumer goods, mostly pharmaceutical preparations from Ireland, and of cell phones and other household goods dipping by US$ 3.5 billion. Earlier, March data showed that the trade deficit widened to an all-time high of US$ 138.3 billion but this narrowed markedly, by the most on record, a month later.  Declines in imports were noted in various sectors including industrial supplies and materials, (by US$ 23.3 billion) and motor vehicle, parts and engines, (US$ 8.3 billion). A rush to beat import duties helped to widen the trade deficit in Q1, but the impact of front-loading of imports could continue in Q2, as higher duties for most countries have been postponed until next month, while those for Chinese goods have been delayed until mid-August. Although imports from Vietnam and Taiwan were the highest on record, those from Canada and China were the lowest since May 2021 and March 2020.

Meanwhile, exports rose 3.0% to a record US$ 289.4 billion, with goods 3.4% higher, at US$ 190.5 billion, assisted by a US$ 10.4 billion increase in industrial supplies and materials. Mainly driven by travel, exports of services rose US$ 2.1 billion to US$ 98,9 billion.  A US$ 1.0 billion hike was registered in the exports of capital goods, those for of motor vehicles, parts and engines fell by US$ 3.3 billion. Although here were record goods trade deficits posted for Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, there were record levels for Hong Kong, Switzeraland and the UK; the trade gap with Canada was the smallest since April 2021.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.5% to 247k – a seven-month high last week. This points to softening labour market conditions amid mounting economic headwinds from tariffs. The number of people receiving benefits, after an initial week of aid, dipped 3k to a seasonally adjusted 1.904 million during the week ending 24 May. The Labor Department report shows that, in an uncertain economic environment, workers losing their jobs are having a tough time landing new opportunities, with many employers reluctant to increase headcount. However, it was noted that companies were generally hoarding workers after struggling to find labour during and after the pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report showed “comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread,” and that “all districts described lower labour demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses and staff reduction plans”.

Not before time, bosses at six water companies Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, Anglian Water, Wessex Water, United Utilities and Southern Water – have been called out and belatedly banned from receiving bonuses for the last financial year. All have committed the most serious ‘Category 1’ pollution breaches of environmental, customer service or financial standards which have led to restrictions on performance-related pay; this included breaches of financial resilience regulations when its credit rating was downgraded. The new rules, which came into effect last Friday, give water industry regulator Ofwat the power to retrospectively prevent bonuses paid in cash, shares or long-term incentive schemes to chief executives and chief financial officers for breaches in a given financial year. However, it cannot prevent lost bonuses being replaced by increased salaries as has been happening in the banking sector.

CK Infrastructure Holdings has contacted Sir Adrian Montague, the chairman of embattled Thames Water, requesting to rejoin its board’s equity-raise process, roughly three months after submitting a multibillion-pound proposal to take control. UK’s biggest water utility has been plunged back into crisis by a decision last week by KKR, the private equity firm, to pull out as preferred bidder. Thames Water’s biggest group of creditors – accounting for approximately US$ 17.62 billions of its vast debt-pile – has submitted what it described as a US$ 23.47 billion proposal to recapitalise the company – this would comprise US$ 4.07 billion of new equity and more than US$ 2.71 billion of debt funding, and see existing shareholders completely wiped out, while there would also be several billion pounds of debt write-downs aimed at restoring financial resilience and improving services. With CKI owning large swathes of British infrastructure, including Northumbrian Water, Northern Gas Networks and UK Power Networks, it has history and expertise at running major utilities on the scale of Thames Water.

In preparing her spending review, Rachel Reeves must have upset some of her cabinet colleagues who missed out on extra funding and even faced cuts. Two of her aims were to win back Labour voters, who have lost confidence with the administration, and reverse the party’s decline in the polls. Listed below are some of the winners and losers, following the Chancellor’s presentation last Wednesday:

NHS                            Received a boost of up to US$ 40.73b at the expense of other public services. For the next three years, its budget will rise by 3.0% each year for three years, equivalent to a cash increase of US$ 39.37b billion by 2028

Housing                      Was promised US$ 52.95 billion over the next decade to bankroll affordable housing, with monies going to local authorities, private developers and housing associations. Annual investment will rise by 73.9% to US$ 5.43b within four years

Nuclear projects        Saw US$ 22.67b going to nuclear power projects, including US$ 19.28b for the new Sizewell C power plant in Suffolk

Regional transport    US$ 21.18b of transport spending in England’s city regions as part of a US$ 153.40 investment package. The US$ 21.18b package for mayoral authorities included metro extension funding  in Tyne and Wear, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, plus a renewed tram network in S Yorkshire and a new mass transit system in W Yorkshire

Borders                       Up to an annual US$ 380m to the Border Security Command to tackle people smuggling gangs. Ending the use of asylum hotels by 2029 will save an annual US$ 1.36b  

Schools                       A promise of US$ 6.11b increase in the budget for schools plus an extra US$ 3.12b each year to fix “our crumbling classrooms”. Caps on the cost of school uniforms

Confirmation that all children with a parent claiming universal credit will be eligible for free school meals

Other                          US$ 17.92b plan to insulate people’s homes. An annual US$ 29.87b into R&D funding. US$ 2.72b specifically for the government’s AI action plan and US$ 8.15b to encourage start-ups to grow

Some will argue that the problem with the UK is that there are too many civil servants and too much red tape. Over the past twelve months, the UK Civil Service workforce has grown by 3.8% to stand at 516.5k full-time equivalents (FTEs) in March 2025. In the five years from Q1 2015 to Q1 2020, the numbers rose by 5.7% to 423k and over the next quinquennial to Q1 2025 by 22.1%. Full marks then to whoever came up with the idea that government departments across the board will have to find US$ 18.69 billion in efficiency savings down from using AI and cutting back-office costs by at least 16%.

There is no doubt that the UK is becoming known for developing ground-breaking tech companies and then selling them off to overseas, (usually US) interests. This week started with Qualcomm acquiring London-listed chip designer Alphawave IP Group in a US$ 2.44 billion takeover. The American MNC, with its HQ in San Diego, creates semiconductors, software and services related to wireless technology. Then it was announced that talks were ongoing between industrial group Spectris, who have attracted the interests of the US private equity firm Advent. It has offered a possible cash deal of US$ 51.00 per share for the maker of precision instruments and software; this would value the deal at US$ 5.96 billion. The third company, that could be moving over to the States, is Oxford Ionics, a specialist in quantum computing, being taken over by IonQ in a US$ 1.08 billion deal.

With such news, it appears that the UK has become like some football clubs that have an academy and develop players until they are ready to go to the bigger clubs. They make their money by a transfer fee and then further fees if the player moves again. Undoubtedly, UK has created ground-breaking tech companies, but, in many cases, struggle to hold on to them in the face of overseas interest. With real concerns that the country is lagging behind many developed nations, this week Nvidia has launched several partnerships in the UK to reportedly boost the country’s AI capabilities including a pledge to help train 100k people in AI over the next five years. Its CEO Jensen Huang commented that the UK is in a “Goldilocks circumstance”, and that “I think it’s just such an incredible, incredible place to invest”’ and “the ecosystem is really perfect for take-off – it’s just missing one thing” – referring to a lack of homegrown, sovereign UK AI infrastructure. He also noted that the country “has one of the richest AI communities anywhere on the planet, along with “amazing startups” such as DeepMind, Wayve, Synthesia and ElevenLabs. It has to be noted that Huang was speaking on a panel with Keir Starmer and Investment Minister, Poppy Gustafsson and that Nvidia is a listed company – and not a charity.

Lates figures show that wages are nudging higher but at its slowest pace since last September, slipping 0.4% to 5.2% on the month to April. The unemployment rate was 0.1% lower at 4.5%, with job vacancies 8.6% lower at 736k – the thirty-fifth consecutive quarterly decline. Payroll employees fell 0.9% to 30.2 million. Despite the April hike in the national living wage, pressure eased in the month, with further falls expected during the rest of the year. With the equation of a softening unemployment rate and payrolls falling, allied with wage growth easing normally adds up to further rate cuts on the horizon.

Another Starmer broken promise is all be inevitable, with Savills posting that the government will only deliver 56% of the 1.5 million new homes it intimated would be done in the first five years of parliament. The property agent reckons that there will be in the region of 840k home completions over that time period, with two main drivers being subdued demand from first-time buyers and housing associations, allied with falling planning consents. However, it does indicate that the target could only be met with “very significant demand support” through a new Help to Buy or similar scheme because developers will only build what they can sell.

As expected by many, probably with the exception of the Chancellor, the UK economy, in April, contacted by 0.3%, compared to a positive 0.2% a month earlier – and not helped by the Trump tariffs. Even Rachel Reeves described the figures as “disappointing”, but she seems to have forgotten that her drive for economic growth would be impacted by a triple whammy of employer national insurance contributions moving 1.2% higher to 15.0%, the rising of the minimum wage and additional business costs all started in April. The biggest contributors to the figures were manufacturing and service dipping by 0.4% and 0.9%, with the largest ever monthly fall in goods exported to the US. To add to the country’s economic woes, higher stamp duty depressed house buying and car manufacturing performed badly after a first quarter boost.

To the surprise and dismay of many pensioners, Rachel Reeves decided, in her now infamous October budget, that she should limit winter fuel payments to those on pension credit and on incomes of over US$ 15.45k (GBP 11.40k); this resulted in some ten million pensioners losing the allowance. After a major kick in the pants for the Labour administration at the May local elections, and the disastrous results therefrom, Keir Starmer quickly stood up at PMQs to announce a U-turn on winter fuel payments. Now all pensioners will get payments of US$ 270k (GBP 200) or US$ 407 (GBP 300) for over eighties. However, the two million pensioners, with incomes over US$ 47.3k, (GBP 35k), will be paid this initially but will have it clawed back through the tax system later. This is ‘Heath Robinson’ at its best, and an indicator that this ‘rescue package’ had not been well thought out. It is estimated that the new funding will cost US$ 1.69 billion. However, it appears that the saving from not making the payment universal this winter from US$ 609 million, (GBP 450m), to as low as US$ 41m (GBP 30m). The Chancellor has never apologised for this glaring error, arguing that at the time, the money saved would be needed elsewhere. How times have changed – she has argued that the economy was on the up, when everybody else realised that reality would hit home in April, and that the winter fuel repayment could be reinstated at a time when wage growth was heading south, with unemployment heading in the other direction. Forty-five years ago, Margaret Thatcher said “The Lady’s Not For Turning” – maybe Rachel Reeves is trying to emulate the Iron Lady and for her it appears that Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word!

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I Don’t Want To Talk About It!

Posted on June 6, 2025 by howesdubai

I Don’t Want To Talk About It!                                                         06 June 2025

This blog tends to agree with Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, who dismissed concerns raised by a late May Fitch Ratings forecast of a 15% residential price correction, emphasising market maturity over weakness, noting that “a slowdown in growth isn’t a correction”.  fäm noted that  approximately 363k residential units are slated for delivery over the next five years, but only 12k are near completion (80 – 99% progress), with 270k units at early stages (0% – 20%). Completed project deliveries in 2024 dropped 23% from 2023, dispelling fears of oversupply”. This blog is of the opinion that it seems obvious that supply is still well short of demand, and it could be a further two years before some equilibrium comes to play. In the four-year period to 2023, new units handed over averaged 41k a year, with the best 2024 guesstimate of 47k. It will be interesting to see what the figure will be this year, with numbers from 44k to 81k being bandied around. In May, total real estate transactions rose 15.3%, on the month, and 6.5%, compared to May 2024, to 17.48k transactions, with total sales up 39.1% to US$ 14.82 billion. YTD figures show that there were 83.2k transactions – 23% higher on the year – with its value up 43% to US$ 74.88 billion; average price per sq ft was 4% higher at US$ 436.  Of that total, off-plan accounted for 60.2% of volume, with the 39.8% balance taken by the secondary market. Apart from on-going demand, two other drivers were mortgage rates becoming more accessible, (and cheaper, with some already at sub-4.0%), and sustained inflows of foreign capital. No surprise to see Jumeirah Village Circle, in the mid-market sector, heading transactional volume, with 1.8k deals at an average price point of US$ 292k, whilst Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai led high-value activity, with average sales exceeding US$ 1.36 million across branded and waterfront stock.

May growth in Dubai’s real estate market continued to expand, with unprecedented growth, seeing records smashed with US$ 18.56 billion in sales – up 49.9% on the year – as the 18.7k sales transactions was the second highest monthly return, according to fäm Properties. Over the past five years, transactions have increased by 1,257% from 1.4k to 17.6k, whilst the value has surged 2017% from US$ 627 million to US$ 18.56 billion The most expensive sale saw US$ 82 million changing hands for a luxury villa on Palm Jumeirah, whilst an apartment in Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay fetched US$ 45 million. Of the properties sold last month the split showed, those above US$ 1.36 million, (AED 5 million) accounted for 14% of total sales, between US$ 545k – US$ 1.36 million – 30%, between US$ 272k – US$ 545k – 30% and under US$ 272k – 26%.

Last month, Damac claimed the top three places for off plan villas – Damac Islands, Fiji, Bora Bora and Bali – with seventy-two, fifty-two and forty-nine units, and prices per sq ft of US$ 409 for all three; Damac also claimed the top two places for ready villas – Damac Islands Bora Bora and Damac Islands Maldives – followed by Wadi Al Safa 7;  sale numbers were forty-nine, forty-six and twenty-seven, with prices per sq ft of US$ 409, US$ 436 and US$ 463. For off plan apartments, the three top sellers were The Mural, Albero and Eden House, The Park E – with sales of seventy-one, forty-five and forty-three, and prices per sq ft of US$ 1k, US$ 681 and US$ 981. In the ready market sector, Golf Promenade 4 – A, Al Madar Siraj Tower and Golf Promenade 4 – B led the pack, with twenty-seven, twenty and sixteen, with prices per sq ft of US$ 272, US$ 327 and US$ 270.

The leading developer was Emaar, whose sales of US$ 92 billion, easily surpassed the next two combined – Damac Properties, (US$ 46 billion) and Nakheel (US$ 35 billion). Meraas, (US$ 18.5 billion), Sobha Group, (US$ 18.5 billion), Binghatti, (US$ 13 billion), Dubai Properties, (US$ 10 billion), and Danube Properties, (US$ 10 billion) made up the top eight.

Announcing that its first Dubai Development, Villa del DIVOS, is nearing full occupancy, Mr Eight Developments confirmed that it had already sold 60% of its second foray into the market, Villa del GAVI. Located on Dubai Islands, the twelve-storey tower, offers a range of two-to-four-bedroom apartments and expansive views of the Gulf. Prices start at US$ 981k, with a flexible 35/65 payment plan, and handover is scheduled for Q4 2027. Interiors feature Italian travertine stone, Fabel Casa kitchens, SMEG appliances and Tom Dixon fixtures with amenities such as two infinity pools, a Technogym fitness centre, and exclusive access to the Mr. Eight Priority Club. Members enjoy shared access to a variety of luxury experiences—including chauffeur-driven Rolls-Royce cars, a private Riva motorboat with a captain, golf carts and à la carte services such as in-residence spa treatments, personal training, childcare and 24/7 maintenance. The developer noted that up to 90% of buyers are from Europe, (mainly Germany, Spain, France, Belgium and the UK), with increasing interest from Japan and China.

Emirates President, Tim Clark, has publicly criticised the two largest global plane makers, Airbus and Boeing, over chronic aerospace supply problems, adding that they should take responsibility for late supplies. The head of the world’s largest international airline noted that both manufacturers are years behind on new plane deliveries, delaying airlines, such as EK, from being able to launch new routes and upgrading to more fuel-efficient aircraft. He added that “I am pretty tired of seeing the handwringing about the supply chain: you (manufacturers) are the supply chain”.  The Dubai-based airline has orders for two hundred and five of Boeing’s 777Xs, which have not yet received certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration, but deliveries are set to start in 2026, six years behind schedule. Furthermore, there are reports that Airbus has been warning airlines it faces another three years of delivery delays, in working through a backlog of supply-chain problems.

With a double whammy goal of doubling the size of the economy by 2031, to US$ 816.77 billion, (AED 3 trillion), and increasing total non-oil trade to US$ 1.1 trillion, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has become a useful tool in turning UAE dreams into reality. The UAE-Serbia CEPA, the tenth to come into force, is one of twenty-seven in total having been concluded so far with countries spanning the ME, Africa, SE Asia, S America and Europe. This CEPA aims to further boost bilateral non-oil trade, which had already doubled in the four years, post Covid, with projections indicating a marked rise in bilateral trade that will contribute US$ 351 million to UAE GDP by 2031. This growth is anticipated through the elimination and reduction of custom duties for over 96% of tariff lines, thereby enhancing market access, as well as increasing private sector collaboration and promoting investments in priority sectors such as renewable energy, agriculture, logistics, and technology. The UAE is Serbia’s leading trading partner in the GCC, accounting for approximately 55% of its total trade with the region in 2023.

The UAE and Kuwait have signed a comprehensive set of agreements in a bid to deepen bilateral cooperation across various sectors including AI, health, energy, education, defence and diplomacy. In the defence sector, EDGE Group signed a US$ 2.45 billion contract, thought to be the largest ever naval shipbuilding export in the region, for “Falaj 3” class missile boats.  Another deal saw IFA Hotels and Resorts sign a US$ 54 million contract with UAE-based Darwish Engineering to execute infrastructure works for the Al Tay Hills residential project in Sharjah. A third agreement saw Kuwait Investment Authority joining the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership along with MGX, BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners, and Microsoft, to boost AI infrastructure investment. Furthermore, there were other MoUs signed, including health, diplomacy, road/land transport infrastructure, social development, advanced technology, education and energy.

Dubai’s Al Ansari Financial Services has launched its first foray in India, with the opening of a business solutions centre in Hyderabad. The firm already has the highest share of the UAE’s remittance market and has been expanding into other Gulf territories, through a series of acquisitions.  The India operations will help with the back-end technological requirements and utilise that country’s pool of talent and IT expertise. Al Ansari commented that “we are reshaping our operations to promote leaner corporate structures and enhance the effectiveness of shared services and global business service units”.

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has signed a US$ 300 million three-year unsecured term loan with Bank of China (Dubai) Branch, Bank of China Limited, London Branch and Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited (BOC). Firoz Tarapore, DAE’s chief executive, commented, “this transaction with BOC provides us with additional liquidity to support our ongoing commitment to meeting the needs of our airline customers while maintaining a modern and efficient fleet’.

Another week and another sanction by The Central Bank of the UAE. An unnamed exchange house has been fined US$ 954k for failing to comply with Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organisations and its amendments. The CBUAE, through its supervisory and regulatory mandates, endeavours to ensure that all exchange houses, their owners, and staff abide by the UAE laws, regulations and standards. These laws are there to maintain transparency and integrity of all financial transactions and to safeguard the UAE financial system.

Almost nine years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. The approved fuel prices by the Ministry of Energy are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. June retail fuel prices remain unchanged across the board. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for June is as follows:

Super 98     US$ 0.703 from US$ 0.703       in June        down     1.1% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.673 from US$ 0.673      in June         down     1.1% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.651 from US$ 0.651      in June         down     1.7% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.687 from US$ 0.687      in  June        down      5.9% YTD US$ 0.730

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 02 June, six hundred and twenty-seven points higher, (12.9%), on the previous eight weeks, gained fifty-five points (1.0%), to close the shortened trading week on 5,536 points, by Wednesday 04 June 2025; the bourse was closed for the last two days of the week because of the Eid Al Adha holiday. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.06, closing on US$ 3.64 by the end of the shortened week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.74 US$ 6.10 US$ 2.25 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.02, US$ 2.31 and US$ 0.44. On 04 June, trading was at three hundred and eighty-nine million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars, compared to one million and thirty-one thousand shares, with a value of US$ ninety-nine million dollars, on 04 June 2025.

By Friday, 06 June 2025, Brent, US$ 1.43 lower (2.2%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 2.63 (4.1%) to close on US$ 66.53. Gold, US$ 174 (5.5%) higher the previous week, gained US$ 33 (1.0%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,324 on 06 June.

Last Saturday, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key OPEC+ members, known as the ‘Voluntary Eight’, (V8), announced that they will produce an additional 411k bpd starting next month; this is the same target set for the previous two months but more than triple than the group had previously planned. It was only in recent years that the twenty-two-nation bloc had agreed to daily reductions of 2.2 million barrels, with the aim of boosting prices. However, earlier in the year, V8 decided on the gradual output increase and subsequently began to accelerate the pace – the inevitable result is that oil prices have slumped to hovering around the US$ 60 per barrel mark – its lowest level since 2021. It is hard to believe the bloc’s decision that it is justified by “healthy market fundamentals” covering oil reserves and structural demand growth during coming months. Maybe there are external geo-political reasons – perhaps bowing to Donald Trump’s request to keep oil prices low, (to maintain pump prices under US$ 2.0 for the US population), or maybe punishing some of the smaller members for not keeping to their quotas under the cuts first agreed in 2022.

Yesterday, 05 June 2025, silver prices reached US$ 35.90 – a thirteen year high since February 2012 – driven by concerns around the Trump tariffs and further declines in the greenback; futures for July delivery surged more than 4% to above US$ 36 per troy ounce. The silver market, at US$ 2 trillion, is eleven times smaller than that of gold; this evidently makes that market’s volatility up to three times greater than that of gold. YTD, silver and gold prices have risen by 23% and 29%, with the latter’s rise being driven by trade policy uncertainty and continued central bank demand buying. It ended on US$ 33.95 in late Friday trading.

Come Monday, as the dollar nosedived, sterling rose to a three-year high, gaining 0.73% and trading at US$ 1.355, indicating an impressive YTD surge. Meanwhile, the greenback was 0.66% lower on the day and down 9.0% over the past six months. This latest movement came about because of Trump’s return to the offensive in his trade tariff war. On the day, the Chinese administration replied to the US President’s recent post accusing China of “seriously violating” a trade truce which had resulted both parties lowering tariffs by 115% for ninety days. Gold also got into the act, as it climbed to US$ 3,350, 

US Q1 sales of hybrid, battery electric, or plug-in hybrid vehicles, accounted for 22% of light duty vehicles – 7% higher on the year. Interestingly, hybrid electric vehicles have continued to gain market share, while battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have remained relatively flat. Battery electric vehicle sales are more common in the luxury vehicle market, which accounted for 14% of the total light-duty vehicle market – the lowest quarterly share since mid-2020. Electric vehicles accounted for 23% of total Q1 luxury sales – well down on more than 33% posted in the two previous years. However, the Tesla Model 3 was scaled down to non-luxury in late 2024.

As part of its strategy to divest at least US$ 20 billion of its assets, so it can cut its net debt from US$ 27 billion to something like US$ 15 billion, BP has begun circulating initial details of its Castrol lubricants unit to prospective buyers. Interest has been high and include the ‘usual suspects’, including private equity and industry bidders. Such companies include China’s state-owned Citic, India’s Reliance Industries, Saudi Aramco, Brookfield Asset Management, Apollo Global Alliance, Lone Star Funds and Blackburn’s Zuber Issa. It is estimated that BP needs to sell Castrol, at an enterprise value of US$ 12 billion, to improve BP’s free cash flow. However, questions are being asked whether that is too much on the high side, bearing in mind the rise of electric vehicles and the eventual demise of petrol-driven cars; some now think that it may be sold at around the US$ 8.0 billion – US$ 10.0 billion mark.

In order to avoid any further prosecutions relating to the fatal 737 flights in 2017/2018, that killed three hundred and forty-six people, Boeing has apparently agreed to pay US$ 1.1 billion to settle the case. US$ 445 million will be paid to families of crash victims, with the plane maker agreeing to put US$ 455 million towards improving its compliance, safety and quality programmes; it also agreed to pay US$ 487 million, as a criminal penalty, (with 50% of that total already having been paid in 2021). Boeing has previously apologised to family members of some of the victims, posting that “we are deeply sorry for their losses, and remain committed to honouring their loved ones’ memories by pressing forward with the broad and deep changes to our company”. What kind of apology is that?

Late last week, the fact that Ryanair shares were trading at US$ 23.83, for the twenty-eighth consecutive day, spelt good news for its supremo, Michael O’Leary. He is now in line to pick up a US$ 126 million bonus – by way of holding options on ten million shares – after achieving a key performance target; payout will be in July 2028, as long as O’Leary, who has been with Ryanair since 1988, remains with the budget airline. His long-term incentive scheme was first set out in 2019, the year he became group chief executive. Low-cost rival carrier, Wizz Air, has a similar potential pay deal in place for its chief executive József Váradi.

There is no doubt that Monzo Bank has had a spectacular year, ending 31 March 2025. The online financial institution posted an eightfold surge in underlying pre-tax profits to US$ 154 million, along with a 25% hike in customer numbers to twelve million. There were many who considered that the digital bank would be considering an IPO, more so because a 2024 secondary sale of employee shares valuing the group at US$ 6.0 billion. However, chief executive, TS Anil, put an end to any such hope by commenting that “an IPO is not something we’re focused on right now. We’re oriented entirely around scaling the business and taking it to greater heights”. This despite that it had appointed Morgan Stanley as an adviser and had begun to look at developing an in-house investor relations team.

Not good news for Wollaston in Northamptonshire, as Dr Martens posted a massive 96.4% decline in profits to March 2025, with just a US$ 12.0 million profit; underlying profits were 65.0% lower at US$ 46 million. In 1959, Griggs Group bought the patent rights to Dr Martens and since then have made the familiar, yellow-stitched boots at the Wollaston factory. However, the company has been in the doldrums in recent years, with declining revenues exacerbated by the cost-of-living crisis in the UK where revenues had remained lower “due to a challenging market”. Yesterday, the company launched a new strategy which saw its share price trading 24% higher.

Good  news for  the M&S chief executive after his US$ 9.6 million last pay remuneration, from his previous year’s US$ 6.8 million, and this despite  its recent cyber-attack by a group of Russian hackers; it knocked-out online orders, hit contactless payments, and disrupted stocks in stores. The retailer’s remuneration committee said it had considered the “recent cyber incident” when deciding on performance-related pay and concluded that “no adjustments were needed”. The retailer’s remuneration committee said it had considered the “recent cyber incident” when deciding on performance-related pay and concluded that “no adjustments were needed”. It is estimated that M&S will take a financial hit of some US$ 406 million in this year’s accounts, and the committee noted that it “recognised it would need to re-visit the matter” when deciding on next year’s compensation.

Embattled Thames Water, US$ 30.83 billion in debt, is once again on the brink of collapse, as the private equity firm KKR has pulled out of a deal to lead a rescue of the UK’s largest water provider. It was selected as the preferred bidder in March, after offering to take control of the shares of the utility in return for a mooted US$ 5.41 billion cash injection. Even though it said an alternative plan was under discussion, the utility is in desperate need of fresh investment, without which it could go into special administration. Its Chairman, Sir Adrian Montague, said, “whilst today’s news is disappointing, we continue to believe that a sustainable recapitalisation of the company is in the best interests of all stakeholders and continue to work with our creditors and stakeholders to achieve that goal”.

April’s Republic of Korea’s industrial production, retail sales and facilities investment all declined on the month – down 0.8% – having posted modest increases in March. Retail sales, facility investment and industrial output all headed south – by 0.9%, 0.4% and 0.9% – with the latter driven by a monthly 0.9% contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Driven by a decline in manufacturing equipment for flat-panel displays, Japan’s April industrial output fell 0.9% on the month. The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 101.5 against the 2020 base of 100, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in March; an initial 1.1% decline was reported but it was later noted that a sharp increase in output of pharmaceutical products had not been included.

Latest Russian figures showed that its international reserves edged up 1.6%, on the week, to US$ 678.5 billion, on 23 May, mainly “as a result of positive revaluation”. They comprise foreign currency, Special Drawing Rights, a reserve position in the International Monetary Fund and monetary gold. Russia’s international reserves are highly liquid foreign assets, available with the Bank of Russia and the Russian Government.

Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister, Andi Amran Sulaiman, has plans to produce and promote the use of Biodiesel 50, a fuel blend consisting of 50% biofuel – derived primarily from palm oil -and 50% conventional diesel.  With the government expecting to utilise 5.3 million tonnes of CPO, (with twenty-six million tonnes exported in 2024), prices are expected to head north because of the 20.4% reduction for B50 production and especially as the country is responsible for 65.9% of global CPO. The minister noted that “a price hike will translate into better welfare for farmers, right? We’ll be happy to see our farmers prosper,” He did assure that shipments to the EU and the US would not be affected, adding that “we only need 2.3 million tons for Europe and 1.7 million tons for the US, so there won’t be any issues with exports”.

In a bid last week, to bring down food prices and help the local refining industry, India halved the basic import tax on crude edible oils – including crude palm oil, crude soy oil and crude sunflower oil – to 10%; this will effectively bring down the total import duty on the three oils to 16.5% from the earlier 27.5%.  The import duty on refined palm oil, refined soy oil or refined sunflower oil, remained with a 35.75% import tax, with a 19.25% gap between refined and crude edible oils which will probably result in importers opting for crude edible oils instead of refined oils, thus boosting the local refining industry. 70% of the country’s vegetable oil demand is imported, with soy oil and sunflower oil mainly from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine, and palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

Q1 saw India’s economy grow 1.2%, on the quarter, to 7.4%, (well above market expectations), but annual 2024-25 growth, with a 31 March fiscal year, is pegged at 6.5% – the slowest in four years, and well down on last year’s 9.2%. Analysts expect growth levels to nudge 0.5% lower to 6.0% this fiscal year, which could delay new private capital spending on projects. These figures indicate that the Reserve Bank of India would probably cut rates, to boost growth, but the RBI surprised the market by lowering India’s interest rates by 0.50%, (and not by the expected 0.25%) to 5.5% – the third monthly cut, following those in February and April, with concerns about slowing growth and falling inflation; the 5.5% repo rate is the lowest it has been in three years. The central bank’s governor, Sanjay Malhorta, explained that the higher-than-expected rate cut was because growth was “lower than our aspirations” and the bank felt it was “imperative to stimulate domestic consumption and investment” amid rising global uncertainties. Despite this, the Indian economy still remains the fastest expanding major economy, at 6.5%, whilst retail prices, at 3.16% are lower than the RBI’s 4.0% target, attributable to falling food prices. Its economy is beset by continuing weak manufacturing/investment, posted by private companies, but offset by strong farm activity, steady public spending and improved rural demand. Data shows private sector expenditure, as part of overall investments in India’s economy, fell to a ten-year low of 33% in the last financial year; net foreign direct investment, at US$ 0.35 billion, also fell to the lowest level in two decades. Despite these problems, Asia’s second largest economy still remains the world’s fastest growing major economy, at a time when the IMF’s latest global forecasts are for 2.3% and 3.0%, this year and next.

For the first four months of 2025, China’s light industry posted rising revenues, (up 4.9% to US$ 1.02 trillion), and profits – 3.8% higher at US$ 58.17 billion – attributable to a series of favourable measures, aimed at expanding and upgrading domestic consumption. Growth was down to boosted consumption, brought by the expanding scope of the consumer products under trade-in programmes. YTD, over thirty-four million consumers participated in the trade-in programme for home appliances, buying a total of fifty-one million units of twelve appliance categories and generating US$ 24.23 billion in sales; the added value of the home appliance industry increased by an annual 8.2%.

The value of China’s April international trade in goods and services came in 6.0% higher to US$ 606.8 billion, split between US$ 326.5 billion for exports and services, and US$ 280.3 billion for imports; this led to a US$ 46.2 billion monthly surplus. Of the total, the export value of goods reached US$ 291.47 billion, and the import value stood at US$ 229.03 billion, resulting in a US$ 62.44 billion surplus. The export value of services reached US$ 34.77 billion, while the import value of services was US$ 50.58 billion, resulting in a deficit of US$ 15.81 billion.

China’s purchasing managers’ index for China’s manufacturing sector rose 0.5 on the month to 49.5, indicating an improvement in the industry’s prosperity level and a stabilisation in economic operations, with 50.0 being the threshold between contraction and expansion. The production index and the sub-indices of new orders went up 0.9 to 50.7 and 0.6 to 49.8, with the former rising above the threshold, representing an acceleration in production activities of manufacturing enterprises. In terms of industries, the production index and new order index of sectors such as agricultural and sideline food processing, dedicated device, and devices for railway, shipbuilding and aerospace are all above 54.0, which indicate that both supply and demand in these industries are growing rapidly. Although still in negative territory, both the import and export indices recovered by 3.7 to 47.1 and 2.8 to 47.5. In terms of the market expectation, the index of production and business activities was up 0.4 to 52.5.  It seems that the economy is ticking over nicely.

Australian home building increased by 7.0% in the twelve months to March 2025, figures that the Australian Industry Group consider inadequate to meet the Albanese 1.2 million target of homes by 2029. In the latest quarter to March, Australians expended 7.0% more, at US$ 15.56 billion, on home construction but the value of all construction work done in the March quarter was flat in seasonally adjusted terms. Innes Willox, chief executive of AIG, commented that, “Australia is building a lot more, but not enough is in housing … to achieve the National Housing Accord goals, an immediate 40% uplift in dwelling completion rates is required”. He also noted that the problems facing the home building sector were surging costs, chronic skilled labour shortages and declining productivity. Whether the government is prepared to focus more on planning and housing delivery, and whether it is ready to take a more active role, remains to be seen.

As widely expected, the ECB cut its main interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0% – its eighth rate fall in twelve months and to its lowest level since December 2021. In line with other major economies, it is fighting a battle on two fronts, the threat of deflation and slowing economic growth caused by US tariff policy. It expects price growth to be at 2.0% – 0.3% lower than forecast three months ago in March – and sees its 2026 growth forecast dip 0.1% to 1.1%.

Late last week, Donald Trump announced a doubling of worldwide steel tariffs to 50%, once again spooking the market; he argued that this “will even further secure the steel industry in the United States”. The President subsequently posted that aluminium tariffs would also double to 50% on 04 June 2025. Although China is the world’s largest steel producer and exporter, and ranks third among aluminium suppliers, very little is exported to the US, but it will probably shut most of Chinese steel out of the market. The EU has said it “strongly” regrets Donald Trump’s decision and that the move risks throwing bilateral trade talks into chaos, noting that it “undermines ongoing efforts” to reach a deal, warning about “countermeasures”. There are also concerns about the UK’s zero tariff deal with the US on steel and aluminium which, although agreed, has not yet been signed.

Last month, the vacillating Federal Reserve once again delayed any interest rate changes, leaving it at the 4.25% – 4.50% range, this time posting that it would need more time to evaluate Trump’s tariffs on the country’s inflation and unemployment rates. On Wednesday, when latest labour figures showed that US private sector employment increased by 37k jobs last month – the lowest level since March 2023 – Donald Trump showed his displeasure. On his Truth Social media platform, he came out with “ADP NUMBER OUT!!! ‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!”

With the mega fallout between the world’s two biggest egos taking centre stage, Tesla shares slumped yesterday by 14%, equivalent to US$ 150 billion. With the dispute apparently turning nasty, Donald Trump threatened to cut off government contracts to Musk’s companies, including rocket firm SpaceX, which has contracts worth tens of billions of dollars with the government, with Elon Musk responding with “go ahead, make my day”. The relationship, which initially started with policy disagreements, seems to deteriorate by the hour, and has now descended into personal insults. Heformally left the government at the end of last month, and the breach with Trump was sparked by Musk’s criticism of a Trump-backed spendin bill. Musk opined that it would add too much the government’s debt load. He has also been critical of Trump’s tariffs, which he said on Thursday would cause an economic recession in the second half of the year. The US president also noted that Musk had been unhappy about the elimination of a tax credit for electric vehicles, which has been key to Tesla’s sales in the US. They were also at odds about the decision to withdraw his nomination of Jared Isaacman, a Musk ally, to lead Nasa. The world’s richest man also had another go, calling for Trump to be impeached. Watch this space!

Following his visit to Washington, Keir Starmer returned to tell the UK population that he had negotiated the steel tariff down to zero from 25%, “meaning UK steelmakers can carry on exporting to the US”.  He also milked the fact that a 100k quota for UK motor vehicles would have to pay 10% – and not the global 27.5% levied on all other vehicle imports. The only problem was that no deal had actually been signed, meaning that UK steel will now be taxed at 25% and motor vehicles at 27.5%. Furthermore, the UK-US reciprocal deal on beef exports and imports is still a draft. A government spokesman said it will continue to work “at pace” to implement the agreement with a new clock deadline – 09 July;  if the deal is not finalised by then, the UK’s steel tariff rate would be hiked to 50%, in line with the rest of the world.

The OECD is the latest global body to advise on the UK economy and has concluded what many people already know – it will continue to be hampered by high interest payments on government debt and with the impact of Trump’s tariffs. It also noted, after cutting its March 2025 forecast growth by 0.1% to 1.3%, that the UK faces specific issues due to its “very thin” buffer in public finances, whilst encouraging the Chancellor to boost tax take and cut spending. It noted the Q1 growth figure of 0.7% but warned that “momentum is weakening” due to “deteriorating” business sentiment. It also added that “the state of the public finances is a significant downside risk to the outlook if the fiscal rules are to be met” and suggested that Reeves should adopt a “balanced approach” of “targeted spending cuts” and tax increases to improve the UK’s public finances. Other revenue targets the Chancellor should consider would be tightening up tax loopholes and looking at English council tax bands which are based on 1991 values. Next week, Rachel Reeves will announce her Spending Review when she will allocate the various government departments’ budgets, knowing that defence has already received extra funds, with the NHS also in line to receive more – all at the expense of other government departments.

Next week, the Chancellor will introduce her spending review that is expected to restore the winter fuel allowance, that was taken away from all pensioners, via her October 2024 budget, in order to save the government just over US$ 2.0 billion. Not surprisingly, to all but a naïve Starmer administration, the move proved politically toxic so much so that prime minister Starmer had to sheepishly announce a U-turn. He later justified his action on the basis that it was the right thing to do but claimed that improved economic data meant it was possible to think again.  However, we will have to wait until this week to see which pensioners will be eligible as the prime minister appears not to know. One option doing the rounds is that the government would restore grants of up to US$ 405 (GBP 300), to ten million pensioners, but it would recoup the money from about five million wealthier pensioners, with an income of over US$ 50k, through higher tax bills over the course of the next fiscal year. The chancellor will use her spending review next week to implement a higher means test for winter fuel payments, designed to restore them to the poorest half of pensioners. who have an income above about £37,000 through higher tax bills over the course of the next financial year. However, there are rumours circulating that winter fuel payments may be unable to be processed in time because of the department’s ageing IT systems. Whatever happens will probably result in another nail in the Chancellor’s coffin.

Some bad news for some posh people who thought they were Glastonbury ticket holders, with all the glam accoutrements, and have now realised that they have lost thousands of dollars, with booking agency Yurtel announcing it had ceased trading with immediate effect. Many have been left thousands of pounds out of pocket after the luxury glamping company went bust. (Every year, Glastonbury’s website says the only official source for buying tickets is the firm See Ticket). With the event’s organiser posting “as such we have no records of their bookings and are unable to take any responsibility for the services and the facilities they offer”. There are a few that have forked out more than US$ 22.2k through Yurtel, with hospitality packages starting at US$ 13.5k. Yurtel said it was unable to provide customers with any refunds, advising them to go through a third party to claim back the money once the liquidation process had started, and to exacerbate the situation, it is reported that the failed company had not purchased any tickets for the 25 -29 June festival. Furthermore, several people have also reported that they were unable to pay by credit card, at the time of booking, with the company instead asking for a bank transfer. Even though Yurtel’s founder Mickey Luke said: “I am deeply sorry that you have received this devastating news and am writing to apologise”.  Although it seems that both Trump and Musk want to talk about ‘it’, Rod Stewart  on the Pyramid Stage on Sunday, 29 June, perhaps he will dedicate a song to someone else – I Don’t Want To Talk About It!

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Cool For The Summer!

Posted on May 30, 2025 by howesdubai

Cool For The Summer!                                                                 30 May 2025

Full marks to Fitch Ratings, probably the first entity to come out to say that Dubai’s red-hot property market is poised for a moderate correction, at no more than 15%, starting in H2. The agency noted that it is not expected to destabilise the market or impact the credit ratings of UAE banks and homebuilders. This blog has noted in the past that, ‘it is all but inevitable that this almost five-year bull run will eventually come to a soft landing, as some major global economic event(s) hit(s) consumer/investor confidence’. However, at the end of last year, there was a definite shortage of inventory and if the current population growth trend, (5.28%) continues, Dubai will be home to 4.068 million by year end – an increase of 204k; by today, 30 May, the population was 3.949 million, having started the year on 3.864 million, an 85k increase. This blog uses a 19:81, villa:apartment ratio and a 5.3:4.1, villa:apartment occupancy. This would indicate that they would need to build 7.3k villas and 40.3k apartments in 2025 to meet the demand from 2025 new residents. It seems obvious that supply is still well short of demand, and it could be a further two years before some equilibrium comes to play. In the four-year period to 2023, new units handed over were 41k a year; the best 2024 guesstimate is 47k. It will be interesting to see what the figure will be this year, with numbers from 44k to 81k being bandied around.

Claiming they had breached regulations for tourist accommodation, the Spanish government has called for the removal of listings of nearly 66k properties on rental platform Airbnb. The announcement followed a Madrid court ruling that Airbnb must immediately withdraw from the market 5k of the properties cited by the ministry. The properties are in six regions – Madrid, Andalusia, Catalonia, Valencia, the Basque Country and the Balearic Islands. It seems that the country is awash with protests against over-tourism, with the latest demonstrations in the Canary Islands last Sunday that attracted thousands of people.  Housing has emerged as Spain’s biggest concern in recent months, due to spiralling rental costs, particularly in larger towns and cities, with tourist apartments having been identified by many as the major cause of the problem. The cost of an average rental has doubled over the last decade, while salaries have failed to keep up. Tourist numbers have risen sharply, post Covid, so much so that Spain, with 2024 tourist numbers 13% higher, to ninety-four million foreign visitors, is the world’s second most popular tourist destination after France. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said earlier this year, “there are too many Airbnbs and not enough homes”, and he promised to prevent the “uncontrolled” expansion of the use of properties for tourism. Barcelona City Hall has said it will eliminate its 10k short-term tourist apartments  by the end of 2028, whilst Airbnb has reached agreements with local authorities in the Canary Islands, Ibiza and Murcia, aimed at ensuring property owners comply with tourist rental rules to tackle a housing shortage in areas such as Madrid and Barcelona. In a bid to tackle the problem, the government is planning to charge non-EU residents a 100% tax when they buy homes in the country.

Spain is not the only European country to face housing shortages and backlashes against Airbnb. In Greece, the government has banned thousands of properties from short-term platforms. To try and improve the country’s dire housing shortage and spiralling rents, it has introduced sweeping changes in legislation which have had a negative impact on short-term rentals. Italy faces the same problems more so because this year sees 2025 Jubilee celebrations in Rome and Vatican City, which will boost visitor numbers by up to fifteen million. The government has reacted to overtourism, safety concerns, soaring rents for residents and increasing shortages of available properties by tightening up on short-term letting platforms. In Portugal, the government is facing a housing crisis and is addressing the shortage of affordable long-term rentals by restricting short-term rentals. This crisis of overtourism and housing shortages can be seen all over Europe and the continent’s problems can only be good news for Dubai’s holiday rental sector, as well as having an impact on the emirate’s residential market.

Another large project for developer MAG sees it joining up with one of China’s biggest engineering companies – Citic Ltd – to build ‘Keturah Ardh’, within the Al Rowaiyah First District in Dubailand. The US$ 6.0 billion project, encompassing 18.47 million sq ft, will have plot sizes ranging from 50k to 200k sq ft; it will also feature over 100k trees, ‘aged between twenty and two thousand, two hundred years’. The first phase, under the Keturah Ardh Couture Art brand, will launch in Q4, followed by phase 2 in Q1 2026, with subsequent phases being rolled out through to 2027; the timeframe is within a two- to seven-year period.

Meanwhile, Binghatti has invested over US$ 6.81 billion in Nad Al Sheba 1, better known as the original Nad Al Sheba Racecourse, the former venue of the iconic Dubai World Cup. The land will be utilised for eight million sq ft of gross floor area, “to be used for what would be the company’s first large-scale master-planned residential community in the emirate”. In Dubai, the developer has around 20k units under development, across about thirty projects, including Downtown and Business Bay, and including branded residences in collaboration with Bugatti, Mercedes-Benz, and Jacob & Co. Its clients include Neymar Junior and Andrea Bocelli.

Following January’s Dubai Land Department’s announcement of private property ownership in Sheikh Zayed Road from the World Trade Centre Roundabout to the Water Canal and Al Jaddaf area, the first freehold residential and commercial project on SZR has been launched; at the time, three hundred and twenty-nine plots in Al Jadaf and one hundred and twenty-eight in SZR were in the list. This week, the first freehold residential and commercial project on SZR has been launched – the sixty-storey AA Tower encompassing 10k sq mt and comprising three hundred and sixty-nine residential units, including one hundred and ninety-five one-bedroom apartments, one hundred and ninety-eight two-bedroom apartments, and only three three-bedroom apartments, along with twenty-six office units and five retail stores. Prices for residential apartments, (which can be bought with a 28% downpayment and twelve 6.0% quarterly repayments), range from US$ 800k to US$ 1.47 million – an average of approximately US$ 967 to US$ 1,247 per sq ft – with office spaces between US$ 608k and US$ 1.91 million. Retail stores start at US$ 3.31 million and go up to US$ 6.81 million.

Emaar is investing US$ 812 million to acquire land in Ras Al Khor, from Dubai-listed Amlak Property Investment which is divesting itself of its non-core operations. In 2022, the developer acquired the Dubai Creek Harbour development in its entirety, from Dubai Holding. The cash-and-share deal then was valued at just under US$ 2.0 billion. By the end ofQ1, Emaar Properties’ revenue backlog increased by 62% on the year to US$ 34.60 billion. A company statement noted that “acquiring this land will enable the company to expand its land bank portfolio and initiate new real estate projects aligning with its core business”.

Real estate transactions across five of the seven emirates in the UAE surged to over US$ 65 billion in Q1, driven by robust investor confidence, proactive government policies and enhanced demand from within and outside the nation. There is no doubt that the UAE has become one of the world’s most attractive destinations for living, working, and investing in

US$ bn%Number k%
Dubai  52.5916.2058.0431.50
Abu Dhabi   6.8926.706.9049.00
Sharjah  3.6031.9024.60 
Ajman   1.51           29.003.63 
RAK  0.65                 1.30 
65.24 94.47 

BEYOND Developments has announced a partnership with UK’s Ascot Racecourse, which sees the Dubai-based firm becoming the Official Real Estate Partner of Ascot and Royal Ascot across all twenty-six race days this year, including the globally renowned Royal Ascot in June; this five-day racing spectacular, which attracts 300k racegoers, and takes place between 17 – 21 June. It will be great PR for the Dubai real estate industry.

Latest data from the World Travel & Tourism Council expects 2025 international visitor spend, to be 3.96% higher, to US$ 72.89 billion, as well accounting for 13% of the UAE’s GDP. Furthermore, 925k jobs will be supported by the sector – equating to about 12.5% of the nation’s workforce; and a 3.9% rise on the year. Equally robust is domestic tourism, with visitor spend expected to be over US$ 16.3 billion – 47% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 returns. Both segments – international and domestic – have benefitted from government initiatives, (like the Tourism Strategy 2031), including smart city development, sustainable tourism projects, and world-class infrastructure.

Last year, Dubai, the nation’s tourism lynchpin, welcomed 18.72 million international visitors in 2024 – up 9.2% on the year, with Q1 figures coming in at 5.31 million, 3.0% higher on the year. The city’s appeal lies in its ability to blend luxury, accessibility, and innovation, supported by a hotel inventory of 154.0k rooms in 2024 – the largest globally. By the end of the year, a further 3.0k will be added, including high-profile names, such as One & Only One Za’abeel and Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab. Of that total, 70% of new developments will cater to luxury and serviced apartment segments, aligning with Dubai’s focus on attracting high-net-worth individuals and remote workers through programs like its virtual working initiative.

This week, the MICHELIN Guide Dubai 2025 was unveiled at an event at the Address Sky View hotel. The fourth edition featured one hundred and nineteen establishments, across more than thirty-five cuisine types, and this year sees two restaurants becoming the first in Dubai to receive Three MICHELIN Stars. They were FZN by Björn Frantzén, (its Swedish chef), and Trèsind Studio which became the first Indian restaurant in the world to be awarded such an accolade. Two new eateries were awarded One MICHELIN Star for the first time – Jamavar’s Dubai outpost, located in the Opera district, and Manāo, led by Dubai-born chef Abhiraj Khatwani. There are now fourteen restaurants in Dubai, holding One MICHELIN Star.

Reports indicate that a total of 961.9k pilgrims have arrived in Saudi Arabia, for the annual Hajj pilgrimage, with 912.6k entering by air, 45.0k by land and 4.3k by sea. Emirates is adding thirty-three Haji season special flights to Jeddah and Madinah running until 31 May, and again between 10 – 16 June, to support thousands of pilgrims embarking on their once-in-a-lifetime journey to the holy city of Makkah. In addition, EK will operate thirteen more flights to and from regional destinations including Amman, Dammam, Kuwait, and Bahrain to meet high travel demand during the Eid Al Adha period. During this time, the airline will transport nearly 32k Hajj passengers from key cities across its network, including the USA, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand and Côte d’Ivoire.

The Presidential Court in UAE has announced that next Wednesday, 28 June, will be the first day of Dhu Al Hijjah for the Hijri year 1446. Consequently, Thursday, Day of Arafat, and Friday, 06 June 2025, corresponding to 10 Dhu Al Hijjah, the first day of Eid Al Adha, will be public holidays.

Discussions are ongoing between the UAE and the EU about setting up a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. As with the current thirty or so deals, already signed, this will deepen trade ties and open opportunities for investment and innovation and, at the same time, remove trade barriers, enhance market access for goods and services, and create investment in priority sectors. Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, emphasised that an EU CEPA “represents an extraordinary opportunity… to enhance trade and investment ties that will foster greater collaboration and create mutual benefits and prosperity”, with the EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič, adding “by working together, we will strengthen our supply chains, drive innovation, and create jobs that will benefit our communities and economies for many years to come.” Last year, the EU saw its trade with the UAE jump 3.6% to 8.3%, topping US$ 67.6 billion, those numbers will be ‘knocked out of the park’, if a CEPA went head, especially with a possible US$ 50 billion AI data centre, (in collaboration with France), and a US$ 40 billion investment in Italy’s energy and defence sectors.

A week ago, an unnamed exchange house was fined over US$ 54 million for non-compliance with the provisions of Article 137 of the Decretal Federal Law No 14 of 2018. This week, the Central Bank of the UAE has imposed a total of US$ 5 million in financial penalties, (one for US$ 3 million and the other US$ 2 million), on two unnamed UAE branches of foreign banks for violations related to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations. According to the CBUAE, the penalties follow examinations that revealed the two branches failed to comply with the UAE’s AML legal framework and related regulatory requirements. It was a busy week as yesterday, another unnamed exchange house was fined over US$ 27 million for significant failures in the company’s regulatory framework.

The countdown to Dubai Summer Surprises 2025 has officially begun, with this year’s edition running for sixty-six days from 27 June to 31 August. For the first time, the city’s retail calendar will be split into three themed shopping windows:

  • Summer Holiday Offers                      27 June – 17 July
  • Great Dubai Summer Sale                  18 July – 10 August
  • Back to School                                    11 – 31 August

Each phase will feature exclusive promotions, mall activations, raffle draws, and family-friendly events across Dubai’s top shopping destinations.

As part of its ongoing efforts to enhance tax transparency and improve the business environment in the UAE, the Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of a Cabinet Decision regarding the tax treatment of unincorporated partnerships. Under the Corporate Tax Law, unincorporated partnerships are generally treated as tax transparent entities, meaning the partnership itself is not taxed, but its partners are subject to tax individually on their respective shares of the income. However, this legislation also gives the option for the partners to apply for the partnership to be treated as a taxable person, similar to any other legal entity. Upon approval by the FTA, the unincorporated partnership will be regarded as a legal person and a resident person for tax purposes. This step aims to promote tax neutrality by allowing unincorporated partnerships to benefit from the exemptions and reliefs available to legal persons under the Corporate Tax Law.

In his capacity as Chairman of the Financial Audit Authority, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, First Deputy Ruler of Dubai, has issued decision No 4 of 2025, relating to the operational procedures for the Central Violations and Grievances Committees, under the Financial Audit Authority in Dubai. The new guidelines apply to senior officials and employees of entities under FAA’s oversight and are designed to ensure fair, transparent, and proportionate disciplinary measures, while safeguarding employee rights. The Decision outlines how violations are handled, grants employees the right to appeal within fifteen working days, and requires all committee proceedings to remain confidential, unless disclosure is authorised by the D/G and serves the public interest. The changes are seen as part of a broader effort to safeguard public finances, maintain high standards of governance, and boost trust in disciplinary and appeals processes within Dubai’s public sector.

An agreement between Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre, with US-based Firefly Aerospace, is set to deploy the country’s Rashid 2 Rover, on the far side of the moon, as part of its Lunar Mission. The UAE craft will be placed on Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lander stacked on the Elytra Dark orbital vehicle. It will join Blue Ghost Mission 2, in 2026, which will be Firefly Aerospace’s second lunar mission, alongside payloads from Australia, the European Space Agency and Nasa. Sheikh Hamdan noted that “the UAE’s mission to explore the far side of the Moon places our nation among a select group of countries advancing the frontiers of lunar exploration”.

A high-level economic delegation from the UAE conducted a trade visit to Côte d’Ivoire. Discussions focused on strengthening bilateral relations, with particular emphasis on advancing economic and trade cooperation. Investment opportunities, across a range of sectors including tourism, renewable energy, and banking and financial services, were explored. The visit culminated in the signing of an MoU to establish a joint business council between the UAE and Côte d’Ivoire.

On an official visit to Oman, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai, witnessed an agreement to develop and operate the first phase of the Al Rawdah Special Economic Zone in Oman’s Al Buraimi Governorate. DP World will be the majority partner in this UAE-Oman JV which will be developed by Mahadha Development Company; phase 1 will cover 14 sq km, to be eventually expanded to 25 sq mt. The zone, with links to both Jebel Ali and Sohar ports, will focus on sectors such as logistics, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and food processing.

At last week’s fifteenth BRICS Trade Ministers’ Meeting, the UAE, represented by Juma Mohammed Al Kait, of International Trade Affairs at the Ministry of Economy, highlighted the country’s commitment to global trade cooperation and economic partnership, whilst noting the UAE’s position as a vital bridge between East and West, and the Global South. The ten-nation bloc discussed key global trade challenges and expressed firm support for a fair, rules-based multilateral trading system and ended by adopting several key documents aimed at enhancing economic cooperation and BRICS’ influence in global trade. (BRICS comprises the five original members – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – that expanded in 2023, with the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE, with the acronym BRICS+). The bloc accounts for nearly 40% of the global population and around 25% of worldwide GDP.

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, a Dubai-based global aviation service, has sold seventy-five aircraft in two transactions – one for around fifty Embraer E_JETS to a specialist aircraft lessor, and the other being approximately twenty-five out-of-production aircraft sold to a financial investor, with DAE providing lease, asset, and technical management services. This is in line with DAE’s aim to streamline its fleet by focusing on newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft, reducing the weighted average age of its passenger fleet while extending the average remaining lease term. When concluded, DAE’s fleet will see its portfolio being 45:42:13 – Boeing, Airbus and ATR – and be valued at over US$ 14.0 billion. According to recent studies, the global aircraft leasing markets is projected to grow by 4.5% annually through 2030.

Wednesday, 28 May, was the first day of trading on the DFM for Dubai Residential Reit, and had risen 13.64%, at the close of trade. The Shariah-compliant income-generating closed-ended real estate investment fund listed at US$ 0.300 per share, opening trading at US$ 0.330, rising to as high as US$ 0.357 before paring gains to close the day at US$ 0.341. It hit a low of US$ 0.327 during the day’s trading. Although it was an impressive opening day, the 13.6% gain is ranked only fifth in ‘first day trading gains’ behind Parkin’s 31.4% surge, Dubai Taxi (18.9%), Al Ansari (16.5%) and DEWA (15.7%).

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 26 May, six hundred and ten points higher, (9.4%), on the previous seven weeks, gained seventeen points (0.3%), to close the trading week on 5,481 points, by Friday 30 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.05 higher the previous week, shed US$ 0.11, closing on US$ 3.58 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.73 US$ 6.27 US$ 2.17 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.74, US$ 6.10, US$ 2.25 and US$ 0.41. On 30 May, trading was at one million and thirty-one thousand, with a value of US$ ninety-nine million dollars, compared to one hundred and twenty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-seven million dollars, on 23 May 2025.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on Friday, 30 May at 5,481 was 1,418 points (34.9%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.42, to close on 30 May at US$ 3.58. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed May 2025 at US$ 0.73, US$ 6.27, US$ 2.25 and US$ 0.41.

By Friday, 30 May 2025, Brent, US$ 0.69 lower (1.5%) the previous week, shed US$ 0.74 (1.1%) to close on US$ 63.90. Gold, US$ 174 (5.5%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 71 (2.1%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,291 on 30 May.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 10.91 (14.6%), to close 30 May 2025 on US$ 63.90. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of May, the yellow metal had gained US$ 667 (25.4%) and was trading at US$ 3,291.

Nvidia reported a huge boost to its revenues in Q1, with sales of its chips rising more than 69% on the year, whilst profits surged to a mega US$ 18.8 billion; shares rose 6.4% on the news. Sales in Nvidia’s key data centre business grew 73% on an annual basis. Profits would have been higher had not Washington restricted the sale of Nvidia’s China-specific “H20” chips, which led to a drop in demand; it incurred a US$ 4.5 billion charge.  But Nvidia’s stock, along with share prices of fellow chipmakers, plummeted in April after US President Donald Trump announced a wave of tariffs and tightened export restrictions. Things change fast in the Trump era, and this week, the company’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, said “global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure is incredibly strong”, and expected demand for AI computing to “accelerate”. However, there are reports that the US president has ordered US chip software suppliers to stop selling their products to Chinese chip companies, so as to curtail that country’s progress in developing their own advanced chips that would compete with the likes of Nvidia. However, it seems that a new market may have opened up – the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

As M&S begins to return to some form of normalcy, four weeks after being grounded by a cyber-attack, there are reports that Tata Consultancy Services has begun an internal investigation, which should be completed by the end of the month. After being the provider of IT services to the retailer over the past decade, it is looking into whether it was a gateway for the attackers.

Earlier in the year, the mega US packaging maker acquired its UK rival, DS Smith, in a US$ 5.8 billion deal. Months later, there are reports that it plans to close five UK sites, (yet unknown which ones), relocate one site, reduce its twenty-four-hour operations at another site from seven days to five and make a “small headcount reduction” at two other locations. Up to eight hundred jobs are at risk.

Following Ofwat’s “biggest and most complex” investigation, Thames Water has been fined a record US$ 165 million, in relation to its wastewater operations, (US$ 141 million) and dividend payouts, (US$ 24 million). Ofwat confirmed that customers will not be responsible for paying the fine which will be paid by the company and shareholders. The UK’s biggest water provider serves sixteen million customers across London and the SE.

KFC, already with 1k UK outlets, is planning a US$ 2.0 billion, five-year investment to build five hundred new restaurants, (costing some US$ 675 million), focussing in “key locations” such as Ireland and NW England, upgrading existing shops and creating 7k new jobs; it first UK venture, in Preston, opened sixty years ago on 01 May 1965. As US$ 3.78 billion is spent every year on fried chicken, KFC, by far the largest fried chicken chain in the UK, does not want to be caught by the likes of Wingstop, Dave’s Hot Chicken and Popeyes.

After two years of toing and froing, it seems that the Daily Telegraph may have a new owner, with Gerry Cardinale, RedBird Capital’s founder, agreeing to take over control from the investment vehicle RedBird IMI, majority-owned by UAE interests. Initially, RedBird Capital was aiming to purchase the title, but their bid was blocked by the UK government on press freedom grounds. The latest agreement sees Abu Dhabi’s IMI retaining 15% control of the title. There are reports that the Daily Mail owner, Lord Rothermere, may be interested in taking up a stake, just shy of 10%. Even though an agreement has been signed, it appears that Dovid Efune, the UK-born publisher of The New York Sun, could well be in discussions with investors about a deal for the title.

It appears thatthe owners of the AA are planning either to sell the company or list it on the London Stock Exchange; either way, it would probably value the company at US$ 6.09 billion. UK’s biggest breakdown recovery service, with sixteen million customers, is jointly owned by three private equity firms – Towerbrook Capital Partners, Warburg Pincus and Stonepeak. The latter invested US$ 610 million into the company in a combination of common and preferred equity, in a transaction which completed last July. The business, that has recorded four consecutive years of customer, revenue and earnings growth, has no fixed timetable and that a deal might not take place until after 2026. The latest financials show that the AA has US$ 2.57 billion of net debt, which it is gradually paying down, as profitability improves. The firm listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2014 but was taken private nearly seven years later at little more than 15% of its value on flotation.

An investigation by the EU Department of Justice has shown that the Chinese fast-fashion Shein website has been involved in fake discounts, pressure selling, and other illegal practices that have breached the bloc’s legislation. It has been given one month, by EU regulators, to respond to its findings or face fines based on its sales in the EU countries where it says it has breached the law. Such practices include misleading information, deceptive product labels, misleading sustainability claims, and hidden contact details. To add to their problems, the Chinese firm, was also found to have pretended to offer better deals by showing price reductions that were not based on the actual prior prices, and fake deadlines to put consumers under pressure to buy.

This week, the UK government announced that it has rid itself of the last remaining shares and puts an end to the 2008 US$ 61.63 billion government bailout, for Royal Bank of Scotland, (now NatWest Group). It is estimated that the UK taxpayer has lost US$ 10.2 billion on the deal. It will draw a line under one of the most notorious bank bailouts ever orchestrated and comes nearly seventeen years after the then Labour chancellor, Lord Darling, conducted what RBS’s boss at the time, Fred Goodwin, labelled “a drive-by shooting”. A stock exchange filing disclosing that taxpayers’ stake had fallen below 1% was made last week, down from over its over 80% initial stake. Total proceeds from a government trading plan launched in 2021 to drip-feed NatWest stock into the market have so far reached US$ 17.34 billion which will increase to US$ 17.88 billion, once the remaining shares have been sold. On top of that, institutional share sales and direct buybacks have yielded a further US$ 15.58 billion, dividend payments – US$ 6.64 billion – and fees/other payments of US$ 7.58 billion brought the total proceeds, since 2008, to US$ 47.81 billion.

 Two main points driving a sharp fall in the number of vehicles manufactured in the UK, last month, were US tariffs and the timing of Easter. The 59.2k vehicles manufactured in the month was the lowest April output for more than seventy years, except for the Covid April 2020, 16% lower on the year and 25% down on the month. Furthermore, during a period when the industry is slowly moving from petrol vehicles to EVs, production has been impacted. There is some hope that new trade deals with the US, EU and India may help boost upcoming production. Wednesday’s court ban blocking Trump’s tariffs does not apply to the 25% tariff on steel, aluminium, and cars. This was superseded to some extent by a May bilateral US/UK agreement to reduce the tariff, to 10%, on 100k vehicles but this has yet to take effect.

Volvo Cars has announced that it will slash around 3k jobs from its payroll, with the main impact being felt by office-based positions, representing about 15% of its white-collar workforce, in its home base of Gothenburg, Sweden. In April, the carmaker, owned by Chinese group Geely Holding since being divested by Ford in 2010, announced a US$ 1.9 billion “action plan” shake-up of the business facing the triple whammy of Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars, higher cost of materials and slower sales in Europe. April witnessed an 11% decline in global sales, compared to a year earlier. Four years ago, it announced that all cars would be electric by 2030 but has doubled down due to a number of issues including “additional uncertainties created by recent tariffs on EVs in various markets”.

Brazil’s Public Labour Prosecutor’s Office (MPT) is to sue BYD, which has had a presence on the country since 2015, and two of its contractors for human trafficking and conditions “analogous to slavery” at a factory construction site in the country. It appears that two hundred and twenty Chinese workers were rescued. The regulator is suing for US$ 46 million in damages from the three parties, after construction of the Chinese electric vehicle’s new plant was halted because workers were found living in cramped accommodation with “minimum comfort and hygiene conditions”, noting that some workers slept on beds without mattresses and one toilet was shared by thirty-one people; many had their passports confiscated and were working under “employment contracts with illegal clauses, exhausting work hours and no weekly rest”. They also had up to 70% of their salaries withheld and faced high costs to terminate their contracts. BYD’s first EV plant outside of Asia was scheduled to be operational by last March.

Japan’s core consumer prices rose, in April, at their highest pace, 3.5%, (and up 0.3% on the month), since January 2023, attributable to reduced government utility subsidies and surging rice prices; this figure has remained over the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target since April 2022. Core-core CPI, which strips away both energy and fresh food, was 0.1% higher on the month at 3.0%. Meanwhile, energy prices surged 3.3% on the month to 9.3%, as electricity prices jumped 13.5% and for city gas by 4.7%;  food prices, excluding fresh items, rose 0.8% on the month to 7.0%, with rice prices reaching record highs for the seventh consecutive month, up by a massive 98.4%, as persistent supply shortages continue.

Last week’s blog – ‘Beer Drinking Weather’ – noted the rice problem in Japan.

‘Taku Eto’s joke that, as Japan’s farm minister he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him “plenty” of it as gifts, cost him his job and sent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government into a spin. Japan is facing a major cost of living crisis, as the price of rice has doubled over the past twelve months. Until 1995, the government controlled the amount of rice farmers produced by working closely with agricultural cooperatives, and since then the agriculture ministry has continued to publish demand estimates, so farmers can avoid producing a glut of rice. However, it seems that something went wrong in 2023 and 2024 when the estimated demand of 6.8 million tonnes was 3.5% off the actual 7.05 million tonnes demand rising because of more tourists visiting Japan and a rise in people eating out after the pandemic. The problem was exacerbated as actual production was even lower than the estimate: 6.61 million tonnes. With Japan holding a key national election this summer, Shigeru Ishiba has to do something to placate both parties – the consumer and the farmer’.

Indicating that India may well soon become the world’s third largest economy, it has consolidated its current fourth ranking – behind the US, China and Germany, and ahead of Japan – with its GDP now topping US$ 4.0 trillion. The main drivers appear to be robust private consumption, strategic policy reforms, dynamic private sector, and a favourable geopolitical environment. It is noteworthy that the IMF has posted global growth for this year and 2026, at 2.8% and 3.0%, has been easily surpassed by India’s 6.2% and 6.3%, considered to be the fastest-growing major economy. The IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report forecasts India’s nominal GDP reaching US$ 4.187 trillion by FY26, slightly edging out Japan’s projected US$ 4.186 trillion. Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, IMF executive director, has set an ambitious long-term vision, suggesting that India could grow into a US$ 55 trillion economy by 2047, if it sustains an 8.0% annual growth rate in rupee terms.

Profits of China’s major industrial companies, in April, rose by an annualised 1.4% – up from a Q1 0.8% – climbing by 3.0% in the month, compared to April 2024. Industrial firms, with an annual main business revenue of at least US$ 2.78 billion, posted combined profits of US$ 294.27 billion, during the first four months of 2025.

It does seem strange that Richard Boyle has pleaded guilty to four charges in South Australia’s District Court; he had originally been charged with sixty-six offences. In 2017, he blew the whistle on dubious practices at the Australian Taxation Office and was charged of disclosing protected information, making a record of protected information, using a listening device to record private conversations, (without consent), and recording another person’s tax file number. When his complaints were apparently ignored by senior management, in what seems to have been a bureaucratic coverup, he went public to ABC’s ‘Four Corners’, known as the home of Australian investigative journalism. There, he alleged, inter alia, that his area was instructed to use heavy-handed tactics on taxpayers who owed the tax office money. He has been trying to avoid a criminal trial but has, to date, failed in his quest. It is difficult not to agree with former senator Rex Patrick that had said this was a “disgrace”, and that “it just shows that there is injustice in our political system where we persecute people who blow the whistle”, and that this case shows “whistleblower laws are totally inadequate”. Kieran Pender, from the Human Rights Law Centre, noted that “prosecuting whistleblowers has a chilling effect on truth and transparency, and sends a clear message to prospective whistleblowers that if you speak up you will face punishment.”

Three unknown judges, in the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade, have tried to stall Trump’s tariffs, and in the unlikely event of their success it would be a major blow to the President’s economic policies. Claiming that he had overstepped his authority, when he introduced an emergency law to impose global tariffs, they have put temporary skids on Trump’s next steps and have given him ten days to formally withdraw the tariffs. The court ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy.  However, this is almost certainly not to occur, with the administration saying that it was “not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency”. The White House quickly appealed the decision and could take it to the Supreme Court, if needed. There is no doubt that Trump will not take this lying down and he will find other measures to get his way. Better news for Trump at the end of the week, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that his tariffs can stay for the time, being while it considers the government’s appeal.

With patience running thin at the dilatory and oft-vacillating tactics of the EU non-elected leaders, Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union. Known for their intransigence and stubbornness, brought to the fore when negotiating with the UK, the US seems to have pulled the pin on the twenty-seven-nation bloc, indicating that since negotiations with the EU “are going nowhere,” there will be “a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on 01 June 1, 2025”. Meanwhile, the EU recently threatened to hit US goods worth nearly US$ 113 billion with tariffs, if the ongoing talks fail to lower levies on European goods. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has commented that it is committed to securing a trade deal with the US “EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect, not threats. We stand ready to defend our interests”, and that “the EU’s fully engaged, committed to securing a deal that works for both”.The EU is one of the Washington’s largest trading partners, sending more than US$ 600 billion in goods last year and buying US$ 370 billion worth.

After appealing to the good spirits of Donald Trump, by asking for time to “reach a good deal”, the US president backed down on his threat to levy 50% tariffs on the EU. Because of this, as well as his spending and tax-cut bill currently in legislation, the euro hit a one-month high, of US$ 1.142 against the greenback, investors’ mindsets were impacted. Trump announced the decision to put off EU tariffs until 09 July which is the end of the ninety-day pause on Trump’s 02 April 2 “Liberation Day” levies on the EU. If, as it seems, Trump is gung-ho on MAGA, federal government debt is going to explode, which is not good news for those with US$-assets, as the currency will slide lower.

The ongoing war of words between the Trump administration and Harvard University continues unabated, with the Government Services Administration planning to circulate a letter to agencies asking them to identify whether Harvard contracts could be “cancelled or redirected elsewhere”. It is estimated that US$ 100 million worth of contracts, numbering around thirty, could be under review. To date, the government has frozen US$ 2.65 billion in federal grants and has also tried to revoke Harvard’s ability to enrol international students. Harvard commented that its “cutting-edge medical, scientific, and technological research” has historically been “supported by the federal government” and other entities. Funds will not be revoked automatically but will start a review of funds the university receives from the federal government to determine whether that funding is critical in the eyes of the administration. The regulator will consider reallocating those funds elsewhere if it considers that standards have not failed.

Although not best known for its forecasting ability, the IMF sees the UK economy expanding, 0.1%, to 1.2% this year, and more than previously thought, with the now standard caveat of US tariffs will be a problem; it also noted that the economy will “gain momentum next year”. The world body’s three prior 2025 growth numbers for the UK were 1.5% in October 2024, 1.6% (January), and 1.1% (April), with its 2026 prediction remaining at 1.4%. This anticipated lower growth is largely due to tariffs and the uncertainty caused by shifting trade policy in the US, global economic uncertainty and slower activity in UK trading partners. The report also touched on the long-standing problem, (continuing to slow the UK economy), “weak productivity continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects”. It also acknowledged that, though interest rates “should” continue, the BoE now have a “more complex” job due to the recent rise in inflation and “fragile” growth. It also managed to laud the Starmer administration by adding “fiscal plans strike a good balance between supporting growth and safeguarding fiscal sustainability”.

May has not been the best month for Keir Starmer who, last week, partially U-turned on his decision to limit the winter fuel allowance to means-tested pensioners. Now it seems there is the possibility that Labour that could scrap the two-child benefit cap is “certainly something we’re considering.” Just as he espoused that the winter fuel allowance decision was non-negotiable, he has previously refused to commit to scrapping the cap which came into force eight years ago in 2017.

Job search site Adzuna released figures on Tuesday that indicated that in April, the average advertised wage rose buy almost 9.0% to US$ 57.3k – the steepest increase since June 2022. Only last month, the BoE cut rates by 0.25%, to 4.25%, but the monetary policy committee cautioned about the problems of elevated wage growth., which has been borne out by April’s wage figures. According to the British Retail Consortium, May annual food inflation continued to move higher, for the fourth consecutive month, although overall prices dipped 0.1%. With costs – such as employers’ NI contributions rising, by 1.2% to 15.0%, from April, the National Minimum Wage for those aged above twenty-one to US$ 16.54 per hour and energy bills/council taxes moving higher – it is no wonder that inflation has returned to its upward trend.

It looks as if Dubai, (and the country) is in for a long and hot summer, if current weather patterns continue. Last Saturday, 24 May, Sweihan in Al Ain hit the highest temperature in the country, reaching a scorching 51.6°C, at 1.45pm, the highest ever temperature ever posted in May since records began in 2003, and a possible indicator that summer has started earlier than usual. This follows last month’s record when the country saw its highest ever April temperature at 42.6ºC. Last July, Sweihan recorded a high of 50.8ºC – a temperature that has already been surpassed two months earlier in May.

On paper, the hottest and coldest days of the year should be around the summer and winter solstices on 21 June (the longest day of the year, when Dubai’s sunrise and sunset occurs at 05.29 hrs and 19.12 hrs), and 21 December (the shortest day of the year when Dubai’s sunrise and sunset occurs at 07.01 hrs and 17.34 hrs). Daytime hours on solstice days amount to thirteen hours, forty-three minutes, (summer) and ten hours, thirty-three minutes, (winter). On 21 June, Dubai will experience three hours, ten minutes more daytime than it did on 21 December. What would happen and who would benefit in summer, if the clocks were turned forwards an hour? Obviously, the amount of daytime remains the same, but sunrise would occur at 06.29 hrs and sunset would be an hour later at 20.12 hrs, when the temperatures will be slightly cooler and most would have extra leisure time when it is still light and slightly cooler. That would be Cool For The Summer!

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Beer Drinking Weather!

Posted on May 23, 2025 by howesdubai

Beer Drinking Weather!                                                                      23 May 2025

Savills’ latest Q1 report indicates that new residential developments are being pushed to the emirate’s urban outskirts because of land saturation and limited affordability in Dubai’s ‘traditional’ locations, such as Business Bay, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina. It estimates that five locations – Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley and Damac Lagoons – accounted for 55% of total transaction volumes and 56% of all newly launched residential units. Interestingly, the report noted that, in Q1, 8k units were delivered with a further 32k expected by the end of 2025 – this is in contrast to numbers as high as 72k being bandied around from other sources. It expects a “healthy stream of completions” through to 2028, as the balance between supply and demand evolves.

A fortnight ago, this blog in its ‘Empty Promises’ edition noted:

‘Assuming a 6% population growth, there will be 4.878 million residing in the emirate by the end of 2028, and assuming that the number of units at the end of 2024 was at 860k, there would be 1.11 million units, (860k + 240k), in 2028, split between 900k apartments, (housing 3.870 million), and 210k villas, (housing 1.113 million); this shows that 4.983 million will be housed – a gap of only 105k. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there still will be an inventory shortage in four years’ time. However, it is all but inevitable that this almost five-year bull run will eventually come to a soft landing, as some major global economic event(s) hit(s) consumer/investor confidence’.

The Savills report found that Dubai recorded a 23% annual increase in Q1 transaction volumes, dominated by apartments accounting for 76% of all transactions, while villa/townhouse transactions rose from 18% to 24%. Off plan sales accounted for 69% of all Q1 deals, with the ready market, comprising transactions in completed and handed-over projects, accounting for 13k transactions, as apartments contributed 81% of the total. Of the 30k units launched, 79% were apartments and the balance taken up by villas/townhouses. There seems to have been a trend of smaller unit sizes being introduced to reflect the 10% hike in some building materials. 8% of the total Q1 activity was seen in the US$ 1.36 million (AED 5 million) segment. There was a 31% surge to 1.3k units in the US$ 2.72 million plus (AED 10 million) sector, with villas accounting for 73% of the market share. Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills, noted that “villas in coveted locations, space and privacy are the preferred choice, but supply remains restricted for the time being.”

In a bid to double Dubai’s property technology market to over US$ 1.23 billion in five years, the emirate is launching a PropTech Hub to drive innovation in the real estate sector. This initiative is in alignment with both the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 and the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, whose twin aims are to position the city among the world’s top three economic destinations. Over the next five years, the hub is expected to attract over US$ 272 million in investments, support more than two hundred PropTech companies, and introduce twenty investment funds focused on real estate innovation. It will also serve as a launchpad for entrepreneurs and investors, creating new opportunities in smart property solutions.

As it continues to expand global logistics network, DP World announced that it will invest US$ 2.5 billion this year in five major infrastructure projects to expand its global logistics network. The logistics operator posted that these were in response to rising demand for resilient, integrated supply chain solutions – and to consolidate its leading position as a key enabler of global trade. Its chairman, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem noted that “global trade is evolving fast, and we are investing boldly to shape its future. Despite short-term uncertainty, this US$ 2.5 billion commitment reflects our confidence in long-term trade growth and our determination to build the infrastructure needed to keep the world connected”. The five projects on four continents are:

  • Tuna Tekra in Gujarat – a new US$ 510 million terminal, featuring a 1.1 km berth and an annual capacity of 2.19 million TEUs
  • Banana in the Democratic Republic of Congo – a new 450k TEU facility on the Atlantic Ocean, attracting more direct calls from larger vessels from Asia and Europe
  • Ndayane Port in Senegal – an initial US$ 830 million investment which will support the country’s development for the rest of the century
  • Port of Posorja in Ecuador – a US$ 140 million berth expansion that will expand the dock to a total of 700 mt, enabling it to accommodate two post-Panamax vessels simultaneously
  • London Gateway logistics hub – a US$ 1.0 billion investment to build two new shipping berths and a second rail terminal, whilst creating four hundred new jobs and supporting the UK’s growing role as a trade gateway

Some parents, and probably many teachers, will be happy to hear that Dubai’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority will conduct no inspections during the 2025-26 academic year. The KHDA noted that “the decision – part of an evolving approach to supporting quality education in the emirate – applies to all private schools except for those in their third year of operation, that will be subject to a full inspection”, and that “(we) will continue to monitor school performance through targeted visits focused on specific areas related to educational quality and ongoing development. These visits will be informed by feedback from the school community and aligned with the Education 33 strategy’s priorities”.

In April, Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed 0.5% on the month to 2.3% – its slowest pace of annual growth in almost two years. The main drivers behind this change include a 7.6% decline in transport prices, helped by a marked fall in petrol prices, which offset continued upward pressure from housing costs; with housing accounting for about 40% of the “CPI basket”, it did dip 0.2% on the month, to a seven month low in April, as rent increase slowed to a still high 9.8% – the slowest pace since December 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% – 0.4% higher on the month when March had posted a 0.1% decline. So far in 2025, average annual inflation stands at 2.8%, and as oil prices seem to be stubbornly sticking around the US$ 60 – US$ 65 mark, the inflation rate may continue to hover in the coming months around the 2.5% level. There were slight annual declines in education and healthcare – the former 0.3% lower at 2.5%, and the latter down 0.1% to 3.0%. Other components of the CPI basket – food/beverages, and clothing/footwear, were 0.2% and 2.8% lower, whilst restaurants/accommodation and household furnishings rose by 0.6% and 0.5%.

According to Kamco’s latest report, the UAE is the only GCC member projected to achieve a balanced budget, as other member countries face fiscal challenges in 2025 due to oil production cuts. There is no doubt that much of this is down to proactive government measures, its fiscal discipline and wise leadership. Furthermore, the emirate’s financial hub status and investments in innovation, continue to attract global capital, cushioning it against oil revenue fluctuations. According to the UAE central bank, non-oil sectors, including tourism, finance, and technology, contributed 73% to the country’s GDP in 2024. The UAE’s 2025 federal budget, approved, at US$ 19.5 billion, for both expenditure and revenue, reflects an 11.6% increase in spending and an 8.8% rise in revenue compared to 2024.The UAE’s ability to breakeven in 2025, while other GCC nations face deficits, speaks for itself. It estimates that the 2025 aggregate budgeted expenditure for the six-nation bloc will be at US$ 545.3 billion – 1.7% lower on the year – with budgeted revenues, set to decline 3.1% to US$ 488.4 billion, down to oil output cuts by GCC OPEC members. The end result sees a 12.0% hike in the fiscal deficit to US$ 56.9 billion.

Following a directive from The Executive Council of Dubai an agreement, between the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), Dubai Municipality, and Wasl Group, has been signed. It is in line with the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, to allocate land for affordable housing projects, and aims to develop vibrant, healthy communities, support urban centres that drive key economic sectors, diversify employment opportunities and address the housing and service needs of residents across income levels. It will be strategically placed ensuring connectivity to the city centre, offering access to essential services, and aligning with the ‘20-Minute City’ concept.

The Parkin Company has initiated monthly subscription services for designated areas across the city including:

                                                US$         I mth                   3 mth                        6 mth                 I yr

Dubai Hills, (Zone 631G)                     136                        381                            681                1,226     

Silicon Oasis, (Limited)                                                       272                            409                   681  

Silicon Oasis (H)                                                                   381                            681               1,226

Wasl Communities (W/WP)              82                               218                            436                   763

Roadside/plot parking                        136                            381                            681                1,226

Parking is permitted for a maximum of four consecutive hours in roadside parking, (zones B & D), and twenty-four consecutive hours in plots parking (zones A & C).

Last month, the company added new variable parking tariffs across the emirate, by which premium parking was raised to US$ 1.63 per hour during peak time, (08.00 – 10.00 and 16.00 – 20.00), across all zones, (A, B, C and D); weekends and public holidays were excluded. Zones, signed AP, BP, CP and DP, are premium parking areas with different tariffs and include those spaces that have easy access to public transport, such as areas within 500 mt of a metro station, areas with high parking occupancy during peak periods, and areas with density and congestion, such as markets and commercial activity zones.

In his capacity as Chairman of the Financial Audit Authority, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, has issued a new decision, relating to whistleblowing. It confirms that public employees in Dubai, who report financial or administrative violations, will be legally protected. Decision No. 2 of 2025 ensures whistleblowers can report wrongdoing or cooperate with the Financial Audit Authority without fear of retaliation. It also safeguards their employment and guarantees confidentiality throughout the investigation process.

An unnamed exchange house was fined over US$ 54 million for non-compliance with the provisions of Article 137 of the Decretal Federal Law No 14 of 2018 regarding the Central Bank and Organization of Financial Institutions and Activities. The Central Bank of the UAE levied the penalty after an investigation found that significant failures in the exchange house’s anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism and illegal organisations framework. Its branch manager was also fined US$ 136k and banned from holding any position, within any licensed financial institutions in the UAE.


Effective immediately, the federal Ministry of Finance has announced a significant expansion of its corporate tax exemption policy that sees foreign entities, that are wholly owned by certain exempted entities, (such as UAE government bodies, government-controlled entities, qualifying investment funds, and public pension or social security funds), are now eligible for corporate tax exemption This is conditional to specific conditions.

There are local reports that, like Elvis, Gulf First Commercial Brokers and Sigma-One Capital ‘have left the building’ in Business Bay. Only last month, over forty employees were working on the third floor Capital Golden Tower, but they have left and so has millions of dollars of scammed investors’ money. It seems that the fraudsters used ‘traditional’ methods to obtain the hard-earned monies of hundreds of investors. The two entities acted as one with GFCB aggressively attracting money, on the pretence of ‘guaranteed safe returns’, and pushed clients toward Sigma-One Capital, an unregulated online platform. Call centres would initiate contact, secure first deposits, then hand targets to relationship managers. It was found that Sigma-One Capital operated, without DFSA or SCA authorisation, falsely claimed that it was registered in St Lucia and had a Bur Dubai office in Musalla Tower, but no such office exists. Because this particular fraud had similarities with an incident in March when investors lost millions to dubious platforms like DuttFx and EVM Prime— all promoted through cold calls promising “secure trading environments” – there is the possibility of the same gang leading this latest operation. Victims typically maxed out credit cards or took loans, to make deposits only to discover the companies’ Dubai offices were fictional. Investors suspect these operations belong to the same syndicate.

Ajman Bank has issued its first Sukuk on Nasdaq Dubai that brings the bourse’s total value of bourse’s listed Sukuks to US$ 96.9 billion, as well as becoming the fifty-first regional/international bank to be listed on the bourse, with a segment total value of US$ 30.6 billion. The overall value of debt instruments on the exchange now exceeds US$ 139 billion, enhancing its position in the top realms of global exchanges for Islamic fixed income products. With this listing, the total value of Sukuk listed on Nasdaq Dubai has reached US$ 96.9 billion, while the overall value of debt instruments on the exchange now exceeds US$ 139 billion. Ajman Bank’s issue, which was 5.4 times over-subscribed, was a five-year US$ 500 million Senior Sukuk.

Although Dubai Residential REIT’s offer price remains between US$ 0.292 to US$ 0.300, the issue size was amended 20% higher to 1.950 billion units, equating to 15.0% of Dubai Residential REIT’s issued unit capital. All this indicates that the new issue will bring in US$ 568 million to US$ 584 million, valuing the company at just under US$3.9 billion. The IPO subscription period ended on Tuesday, 20 May. It has been said that this offering, the first for the DFM this year, generated ‘interest over and beyond what even the most optimistic had been expecting’, being oversubscribed more than twenty-six times, attracting over US$ 15.26 billion in gross demand from local, regional and international investors.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 19 May, six hundred and one points higher, (9.4%), on the previous six weeks, gained nine points (0.1%), to close the trading week on 5,464 points, by Friday 23 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.01 lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.05, closing on US$ 3.69 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75 US$ 6.16 US$ 2.15 and US$ 0.41 and closed on US$ 0.73, US$ 6.27, US$ 2.17 and US$ 0.41. On 23 May, trading was at one hundred and  twenty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-seven million dollars, compared to two hundred and seventy-one million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred million dollars, on 16 May 2025.

By Friday, 23 May 2025, Brent, US$ 4.09 higher (4.2%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 0.69 (1.5%) to close on US$ 64.64. Gold, US$ 154 (4.6%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 174 (5.5%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,362 on 23 May.

Coinbase estimates that the recent cyber-attack may cost one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency firms, up to US$ 400 million, with hackers being able to access customer information, by making payments to the firm’s contractors and employees. It confirmed that access was limited to “less than 1%” of its customer data. The scammers posted a ransom of US$ 20 million but Coinbase refused to pay and instead promised to pay back every person who got scammed; it also established “a US$ 20 million reward fund for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the criminals responsible for this attack.” On news of the firm’s action, its share price fell by 4.1%. This comes at a time when research firm Chainanalysis estimated that funds stolen from crypto businesses totalled US$ 2.2 billion last year.

Last Friday, Tesco customers were unable to access its app and website, with the retailer sending a message – “we’re sorry, but something went wrong. We have been notified about this issue. Please try and sign in again later. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.” This was followed by a message saying, “we have fixed a software issue that temporarily impacted customers using our website and app this afternoon. We’re sorry for the inconvenience”. Meanwhile, the Co-op indicated that, following a 30 April cyber-attack, (which forced the retailer to take key systems offline), that from last weekend food stocks would start to recover after two weeks of dwindling stock on its shops’ shelves. Many analysts have opined that the Co-op fell victim to the same hackers – thought to be a group known as Scattered Spider – that had targeted Marks & Spencer and Harrods last month.   Those ‘hacked retailers’ will see their profits dented because of lost sales, cost of clearing up the attacks and new IT software to make their systems safer. Indeed, M&S revealed it was facing a US$ 406 million hit to profits following last month’s ransomware attack.

In another blow to the London Stock Exchange, Revolut, the UK’s most valuable financial technology company, has decided that Paris is a better option for its western Europe headquarters. The UK online bank plans to invest more than US$ 1.13 billion in France, over the next three years, creating two hundred new jobs and marking the “largest investment in the French financial sector in a decade”. Revolut said it had chosen Paris due to its “dynamic banking ecosystem, robust regulatory environment, and strategic position as a financial hub”. Although the US$ 45 billion fintech has a global HQ in Canary Wharf, and intends to stay there, this is still going to impact London’s dominance as a finance and technology hub.

There are reports from the UK that Pop Mart has withdrawn Labubu dolls, (quirky monsters character created by Hong Kong-born artist Kasing Lung), from all UK stores, following reports of customers fighting over them; the manufacturer has paused selling them in all sixteen of its shops next month to “prevent any potential safety issues”. The soft toys became a TikTok trend after being worn by celebrities like Rihanna and Dua Lipa. Whether Pop Mart has done this for safety reasons or to boost further demand remains to be seen. In the UK, prices can range from US$ 18 to US$ 85, with rare editions going for hundreds of dollars on resale sites such as Vinted and eBay. To Dubai-based expats the advice is to buy now for Christmas.

Over the past twelve months, the share value of Ozempic has halved, as intensifying competition in the obesity drug market cut into the Danish company’s market share. As a result, its CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, will step down but will remain in position until a replacement has been found; he had been the CEO since 2017. The company noted that “the changes are made in light of the recent market challenges Novo Nordisk has been facing, and the development of the company’s share price since mid-2024”. Novo Nordisk became a first mover in the obesity and diabetes drug market, with sales of its semaglutide GLP-1 injections, (sold as Ozempic when prescribed to treat diabetes and Wegovy to manage weight loss), skyrocketing following their release. In recent times, it had lost its premier position in the weight-loss market to Zepbound, an injection manufactured by rival firm Eli Lilly. Weeks ago, it slashed its full-year sales growth forecast, due to competition from copycat versions of semaglutide made in US pharmacies – a practice known as compounding. The pharmacies had been allowed to make their own version of Ozempic due to a shortage of the drug — but US regulators ruled in February that the shortage had ended, and pharmacies were to discontinue making compounded versions.

Even though Donald Trump has suspended plans for more aggressive levies, Walmart has indicated that it will have to raise prices in the US, as early as this month, because costs have already moved higher because of the new tariffs on imports – at 10% for most of the world, except for China’s 30% levy. More than 66% of what the world’s largest retailer sells in the US is made, assembled or grown in the country. However, it pointed out that China is the dominant supplier in key categories, such as toys and electronics.  Walmart commented that it was in a strong position to rapidly adjust what they are buying if shoppers start to baulk at higher prices. However, Walmart is still confident that they are in a position to meet their original target of increasing profits faster than sales – a sign that it is expected to be able to pass on higher costs to the consumer, without taking a major hit. In the quarter ending 30 April, revenue rose 2.5% on the year to US$ 165.6 billion, but profits dipped 12% to US$ 4.4 billion.

Anyone who has invested in Bitcoin has been on a very bumpy road and 2025 has been no exception where it started the new year trading at US$ 92,382 and by 17 January had broken through the six-digit level, topping US$ 101,413; the main driver behind this 9.7% surge in eighteen days was Donald Trump and that he would introduce a slew of pro-crypto policies. However, there was some disappointment that the president did not follow through with many policies that some had expected him to do, including confirming that the government would not be buying additional coins for its “strategic reserve”, using taxpayers’ money. Following his now infamous Liberation Day tariffs, in early April, Bitcoin dived reaching US$ 75,004 on 09 April. Late afternoon yesterday, it was trading at US$ 111.892 – 49.2% higher than posted on 09 April and up 10.3%, YTD.

Late last year, Macquarie was hit by a US$ 3.21 million fine for repeatedly breaching its reporting obligations, for over a decade, and ignoring suspicious trades in the electricity futures market.  The Australian Securities and Investment Commission has now admonished the Australian multinational investment banking and financial services group again for their lax approach to complying with reporting regulations. Having demanded an urgent fix to the ongoing issues, it has now placed conditions on Macquarie’s financial services licence. Another problem has come to the surface which has seen the corporate watchdog launch a legal action in the NSW Supreme Court. This time, it involves an accusation that Macquarie breached its obligations regarding the reporting of up to 1.5 billion short selling contracts, dating back fourteen years; this is the fourth time, in a year, that ASIC has taken action. It does seem to a neutral observer that Macquarie is taking the ‘p…’ out of the authorities, and must think it is above the law, with its arrogant approach seemingly putting profit above rules and regulations. Record keeping, complying with regulations and lax reporting standards are issues where Macquarie has fallen short on multiple occasions on a range of issues that date back to at least 2008. To date, a finger should be pointed at ASIC for its apparent weak approach to allowing such behaviour to continue. 

Last year, there were several changes at the top level, with Greg Yanco stepping down in April and Tim Mullaly, who led the financial services enforcement team for eleven years, in July. Scott Gregson became its chief executive two months ago. Last October, Peter Soros and Chris Savundra were appointed as executive director regulation and supervision and as executive director enforcement and compliance. Perhaps such appointments have finally given the watchdog some teeth and has rejuvenated the ASIC to be in a position to rectify Macquarie’s impervious attitude to prior actions.

December 2009 saw the financial world still reeling from the impact of the GFC, with Macquarie’s collapse only being averted by the government guaranteeing its borrowings; to cap it all, the bank had lobbied the federal government to ban short selling of financial institutions. Ironically, the allegations in the NSW Supreme Court state “ASIC alleges that between 11 December 2009 and 14 February 2024, Macquarie failed to correctly report the volume of short sales by at least seventy-three million. ASIC estimates that this could be between two hundred and ninety-eight million and 1.5 billion short sales.” It is difficult to consider that Macquarie is a lone wolf in the industry, and it could only be a matter of time before other financial institutions are drawn into this economic mêlée.

Taku Eto’s joke that, as Japan’s farm minister he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him “plenty” of it as gifts, cost him his job and sent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government into a spin. Japan is facing a major cost of living crisis, as the price of rice has doubled over the past twelve months. Until 1995, the government controlled the amount of rice farmers produced by working closely with agricultural cooperatives, and since then the agriculture ministry has continued to publish demand estimates, so farmers can avoid producing a glut of rice. However, it seems that something went wrong in 2023 and 2024 when the estimated demand of 6.8 million tonnes was 3.5% off the actual 7.05 million tonnes demand rising because of more tourists visiting Japan and a rise in people eating out after the pandemic. The problem was exacerbated as actual production was even lower than the estimate: 6.61 million tonnes. With Japan holding a key national election this summer, Shigeru Ishiba has to do something to placate both parties – the consumer and the farmer.

The Council of the EU and the European Parliament have agreed to permit an agreement that allows member states to gradually introduce the Entry/Exit digital border management system (EES) over a period of six months. Member states will be able to roll out the new EES, which digitally record entries and exits, data from the passport, fingerprints, and facial images of non-EU nationals travelling for short stays in an EU member state.  It should also result in a marked reduction of identity fraud and overstay.

Both the British Medical Association (BMA) and National Education Union (NEU) have threatened further strike action, following the government announcing 4.0% pay rises, after accepting recommendations from independent review bodies; the government has earlier budgeted for 2.8%. Both unions claim that the increases do not account for historical pay freezes.There was a 5.4% rise granted to junior doctors, whilst other NHS workers in England, including nurses, midwives, and physiotherapists, saw a 3.6% hike. Meanwhile, senior civil servants, prison officers and military personnel received rises of 3.25%, 4.0% and 4.5% respectively.

Another blow for the UK economy sees its inflation rate jumping 0.9% to 3.5%, its highest rate for more than a year, attributable to an April rise in the cost of household bills. According to the ONS the largest upward contributors to the rise were from “housing and household services, transport, and recreation and culture”. Earlier in the year the BoE’s forecast was that inflation would spike at 3.7% in Q3 before dropping back to its 2.0% target.

Further bad news for the economy came during the week, with the latest May PMI Index showing that although economic output rose 0.9 to 49.4, it still remains in negative territory for the second month in a row; this raised fears that the strong start to the year could be wiped out in Q2. (The 50 mark is the threshold between contraction and expansion). This is the second-lowest reading in seventeen months perhaps showing that business confidence continues to wane, exacerbated by higher payroll taxes and the threat of resurgent inflation. To make her Thursday worse, the Chancellor was hit with news that Office for National Statistics figures showed yet another spike in public borrowing in April at US$ 27.11 billion, 12.8% higher than expected, whilst posting the fourth highest April total on record; this was despite the pot being boosted by an extra US$ 2.28 billion from employers’ national insurance contributions which kicked in on 06 April. The Chancellor must be living on the edge, with slowing growth and persistent sticky inflation.

On Wednesday, there were signs that Keir Starmer may have performed a U-Turn on his winter fuel allowance debacle, as he responded to a question that he would “look at” his cuts, noting that “we had to stabilise the economy with tough decisions but the right decisions”. It does seem strange that he thinks he may have made the right decisions so that he can now start reversing Rachel Reeves’ budgetary move to  strip money from the UK pensioners –  the sector of the economy that can least afford it.

The end of the week saw more positive news for the Starmer administration with April retail sales rising by a better than expected 1.2%, helped by the warm weather driving food/drink sales higher, after only rising by 0.1% in March. The three-monthly growth was the largest in nearly four years. Furthermore, the GfK consumer confidence barometer also headed north to minus 20, as previous concerns about a possible global slowdown abated with consumers becoming more positive about their financial wellbeing. Further news saw that energy prices will fall in Q2, for the first time in twelve months, as Ofgem dropped their prices by an average 7.0%.

Over the past two weeks the UK has signed significant trade deals with both the US and India and on Monday Kier Starmer signed off on a “win-win” trade agreement with the EU. To a neutral observer, this seems to have been big on headlines but short on detail. Reports indicate that the UK will not be allowed to attend EC meetings and will continue to be treated as a non-member state but will be able to be “involved at an early stage” in talks on new food directives – a draw at best. Even worse was the caving in on the country’s fishing industry, giving the EU a further twelve years, to 2037, of access to UK waters – a drubbing. Even last Friday, the EC had agreed to a draft deal limiting fishing rights to four years but this was not agreed by the twenty-seven ambassadors meeting last Sunday. But how four became twelve speaks highly of Starmer’s negotiating skills.

A possible victory for Starmer could the lifting of bureaucratic and time-consuming veterinary checks that have seen UK lorries often delayed at European ports – the trade-off being that the UK has to adhere to EU standards. Although not strictly trade-related, two other measures were the “youth experience scheme” and access to e-gates. The former did not appear to give too much away so that the likes of maximum age limit, whether there would be a cap on numbers, and the length of stay are unknown.  Even though UK travellers could see shorter queues at European entry ports, with access to e-gates, there is no guarantee of priority access and even worse have only been promised “potential use of e-gates where appropriate”. The UK has been lumbered with an unspecified “appropriate financial contribution” for being able to be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

 At the heart of the reset is a defence and security pact that will let Britain be part of any joint procurement, but further agreement will be needed for British companies, including BAE, Rolls Royce and Babcock, to take part in a US$ 167 billion programme to rearm Europe. Maybe Starmer thinks he is a top negotiator but forgets he comes to the table with no winning  cards in his hand, and the old hands in the EU know that the UK leader is trying to “cherry pick”  EU benefits

Concerned over the government’s inability to pay back its debt, ratings agency Moody’s has lowered the US rating from ‘AAA’ to ‘Aa1’ – its last perfect credit rating which had been the case since 1917; it noted that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs. Fitch Ratings downgraded the US in 2023, and S&P Global Ratings did so in 2011. In the past, credit ratings have been slow to adjust and it must be remembered that the three leading agencies gave their highest ratings to over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes through 2007. Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to “junk” status by 2010,and the write-downs and losses came to over half a trillion dollars. The Trump administration has some justification to take a swipe by commenting that “if Moody’s had any credibility, they would not have stayed silent as the fiscal disaster of the past four years unfolded.” However, the agency maintained that the US “retains exceptional credit strengths such as size, resilience and dynamism and the continued role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency”. More worryingly for the US economy is that it expects federal debt to increase to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 2024’s 98%, that Trump’s spending bill failed to pass the House Budget Committee, (with some Republicans voting against it) and that Q1 growth contracted 0.3%, compared to an impressive 2.4% expansion in Q4.

A recent study in the UK indicates that the cheapest pint of beer, at US$ 5.79 is found in the NE  and in Wales – US$ 5.97 and the most expensive in London, at US$ 7.36 followed by US$ 6.26 in SE England and US$ 6.17 in E England. In five other areas – Scotland, Yorkshire & Humber, E Midlands, W Midlands and the NW, the price came in on US$ 5.98. It would be interesting to see how these prices compare with other global hotspots. Beer Drinking Weather!

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Bull In A China Shop!

Posted on May 16, 2025 by howesdubai

A Bull In A China Shop!                                                                       16 May 2025

At a signing ceremony late last week, the Dubai investment firm, A.R.M. Holding, and the architecture studio BIG – the Bjarke Ingels Group – announced they were to design a massive five sq mt masterplan, surrounding the Jebel Ali Racecourse. The project, which is aligned with Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan, will focus on sustainable growth, community connection and expanding green spaces. The development projects the racecourse area as a network of urban islands surrounded by greenery, anchored by a central park. Construction is to commence early next year. No further details were readily available, but it will probably follow the 82:18 rule – apartments:villas/townhouses.

Last week it was Jebel Ali Racecourse’s huge development announcement, this week sees Jumeirah Golf Estates declaring a 4.68 million sq mt expansion. The project comprises six distinctive districts supporting 12.35k residential units – 10.65k apartments, seven hundred and eighty luxury villas, seven hundred and fifty-two estate homes, ninety-seven branded residences and sixty-two ultra-luxury hilltop mansions. The six districts – Central Park, Village, Town Centre & Grand Lake, Golf Course North, Golf Course South and Equestrian – will be linked by green corridors and recreational trails. On completion, Wasl, the developer, expects it will be home for 51.7k residents, equating to 4.2 persons in each unit. The development will also have a five-star Mandarin Oriental hotel, 48k sq mt of retail space, a 46k sq mt campus for an international school, healthcare centres, religious facilities and other civic amenities. The location will have a 131.85k sq mt Central Park, as well as a new eighteen-hole golf course, a world-class equestrian centre and the emirate’s biggest tennis stadium.

Sobha Realty has launched Sobha Central, a six-tower, mixed-use development that will feature 1,225 residences in its first phase which will also include high-street retail, premium office spaces, and expansive green parks. The Horizon, which spans 250k sq ft of lush parks, 175k sq ft of leasable office space and 160k sq ft of retail including an integrated mall, will house one-to-two-bedroom apartments. Located on SZR, the first tower is slated for completion in Q4 2029. There will be an elevated circulation path linking residents to indoor amenities such as a gym, theatre, and clubhouse, as well as direct access to the retail podium, featuring a car-free shopping and dining experience. Outdoors, private courtyards and a central park offer serene spaces for recreation, complemented by sky-level amenities including infinity pools, wellness lounges, and landscaped terraces.

In addition, Meras launched a forty-five-storey waterfront residential tower, with two hundred and eighty units in Dubai’s Design District. Designed by SOM, the tower features petal-inspired balconies and is located on the Creekside shoreline.

To be found next to the upcoming Four Seasons Private Residences in DIFC, May sees one of its most interesting Dubai property launches which is aiming for Platinum LEED certification. The thirty-two storey Heights Tower offers three hundred and sixty-six luxury residences, with apartments ranging from one to four bedrooms. It aims to provide a sophisticated urban lifestyle, with amenities including a family lounge, temperature-controlled pool and a state-of-the-art fitness centre. Handover is expected by Q3 2029.

With its first foray into the Dubai residential property sector, KORO development has introduced KORO One, located in Jumeriah Garden City. The development will encompass studio to two-bedroom apartments, with three-bedroom duplexes. Facilities include an open atrium, internal gardens, a Technogym fitness floor and vibrant communal areas, all in a walkable neighbourhood. Handover is expected in 2027.

According to Mohamed Binghatti, Dubai property prices will see continuous steady growth, of up to 3% – 7% annually, for the next eight years, and is unlikely to see any ‘downturn’ in the near future. The chairman of Binghatti Developers added that “people are coming to Dubai because the emirate is open to the world, company and real estate ownership is easy, and legislation has become very straightforward”. This prediction comes after four years of double-digit growth in the Dubai residential market. Binghatti say that they are selling one hundred units a day, that their Aquarise project is almost 50% sold and that the construction of all of Binghatti’s projects is progressing well.

Yet again, the two hundred and fifteen key luxury Palazzo Versace Dubai is up for auction with the base bid price set at US$ 163 million. That is less than half the US$ 354 million bid level when the property was initially put up for sale last year. Since then, there had been several auction attempts and perhaps this price will finally bear success. The auction will open next week, but in line with all earlier efforts, the one hundred and sixty-nine residential units, forming part of the overall development, are not a part of the process.

The Indian-born billionaire, Lakshmi Mittal, among UK’s richest residents, seems to have scooped a bargain when he bought a palatial home in Emirates Hills for a reported US$ 100 million; this residence had been on the market in 2023 for double that price. The Baroque style residence in the “Beverly Hills of Dubai”, has been lavishly decorated with gold leaf. Mittal is the executive chairman of steelmaking giant ArcelorMittal SA and has a net worth of more than US$ 23 billion. There are rumours that Mittal has been considering leaving the UK in the fallout of the recent tax changes, but no final decision has been made yet. Last October, UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, scrapped the country’s preferential tax regime for non-domiciled residents, that had been in existence since 1799, whereby so-called non-doms could avoid UK taxes on their overseas earnings for as long as fifteen years.  Over the past nine months, an increasing number of wealthy people have left the UK in droves, with Dubai being a popular destination. A wave of tax reforms has made the country a less attractive place for the global elite.

The developer and operator of UAE’s national railway network, Etihad Rail, has confirmed launch dates for the much-anticipated passenger train service, and that the line will start operations in 2026. In January, Etihad Rail unveiled details about a new high-speed train project linking Abu Dhabi and Dubai. The high-speed train will enable individuals to travel between Abu Dhabi and Dubai in just thirty minutes, reaching speeds of up to 350 kph.

Emirates’ employees received a bonus equivalent to twenty-two weeks of salary to be paid from this month’s payroll. The airline’s chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid noted that “2024-25 was an incredible year, ending with a financial report card which will live long in our collective memory. For your extraordinary passion, for being the best in the business, and for your stellar role in delivering our record financial results, I declare a profit share of twenty-two weeks, which you will receive with your May salary”. Three years ago, the bonus was set at twenty-four weeks and for 2023-2024, twenty weeks. For employees working in the emirate, the Dubai-headquartered Group also awarded a 5% hike in basic salary and increases in accommodation and transport allowances.

An MoU has been signed between Dubai’s Department of Finance, with global cryptocurrency trading platform Crypto.com, which will enable the payment of government service fees using cryptocurrency. When the system is up and running, individuals and businesses will be able to use Crypto.com’s digital wallet to pay for government services, with the platform converting crypto payments into Emirati dirhams and securely transferring the funds to Dubai Finance accounts. This major step, to a fully digital, cashless government, should quieten those who had for too long been writing crypto’s epitaph and a possible wake up call for the banking sector. It will also support Dubai Cashless Strategy and the emirate’s place as a global leader in financial innovation and digital transformation.

In the IMD Smart City Index, Dubai has climbed four places, being ranked fourth behind Zurich, Oslo and Geneva and ahead of fifth place, Abu Dhabi. This major milestone in its digital transformation journey enhances the emirate’s position as a global leader in smart city development and innovation. The Index’s aim is to reflect residents’ satisfaction with city services, including internet speed meeting communication needs, online processing of identification documents and cultural activities – all scoring above 85%. Other scores of over 82% were registered for the quality of health services, access to green spaces, recycling services and for cultural activities. It also improved in sixteen out of twenty tech indicators and made progress across all four pillars of technology governance. The ranking aligns with the goals of the Dubai Digital Strategy, which aims to fully digitise life in the emirate.

For their failure to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations, five unnamed insurance companies have been handed administrative and financial sanctions. The Central Bank of the UAE has imposed administrative and financial sanctions, under Article (14) of Federal Decree Law No. (20) of 2018. It is reported that two insurance brokers were given financial penalties, while three others received formal warnings following supervisory reviews that found deficiencies in their AML/CTF compliance frameworks and sanctions controls. This action is part of ongoing efforts to strengthen the integrity and transparency of the country’s financial system.

Q1 Dubai Electricity and Water Authority consolidated financials show revenue at US$ 1.62 billion, EBITDA – US$ 662 million, operating profit at US$ 228 million and a net profit of US$ 135 million. Furthermore, it also generated a record net cash from operations of US$ 1.05 billion – bringing its closing cash and cash equivalents to US$ 2.23 billion, 33.1% higher on the quarter. US$ 616 million was invested in infrastructure, mainly related to DEWA’s energy transition strategy which by, 2030 is expected to have installed generation capacity to reach 22 GW, out of which 7.5 GW, representing 34% of generation mix, will be sourced from clean energy sources.

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation PJSC, the world’s largest district cooling services provider, saw its Q1 revenue nudge 0.4% higher, to US$ 147 million, on the year, with Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation of US$ 81 million. Pre-tax net profit was US$ 43 million, and after tax amounted to almost US$ 40 million. Q1 witnessed a marked expansion in Empower’s operations, with the company signing forty-six new contracts to supply over 43k refrigeration tons to various projects and buildings across Dubai, whilst installing an extra 15k RT, bringing its total capacity to 1.58 million RT. The number of verified online registrations by new customers, from both the public and private sectors, rose by 22% on the year.

Empower added nineteen new buildings to its portfolio, with key agreements including:

  • Wasl Group to provide district cooling for The Island Resort project, with a cooling capacity of 23.9k RT, expected to start in Q1 2028
  • Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, to supply district cooling for the next phase of the Uptown Dubai development, with a capacity of 247k RT
  • Palm Gateway project on Palm Jumeirah for cooling services, with a cooling capacity of 9.5k RT, scheduled to commence in Q2

As the UAE continues to boost local manufacturing and forging new global partnerships, (with twenty-one comprehensive economic partnership agreements already ‘in the bag’), the value of industrial exports rose 5%, on the year, and 68% since 2020, to US$ 53.68 billion (AED 197 billion). The UAE launched its industrial strategy, Operation 300bn, in 2021 to position the country as an industrial centre by 2031, with another aim that the sector reached its AED 300 billion, (AED 81.74 billion), target by 2031; by the end of last year, it has reached 65.7% of its total. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, the Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, commented that “industry is a key driver of economic diversification and a catalyst for building national capabilities and job creation,” and “it’s a cornerstone for enhancing economic competitiveness, regardless of fluctuations in geopolitical conditions, oil prices or other factors”.

Salik and ENOC have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to develop smart payment solutions that enhance the customer experience at ENOC service stations. Under the agreement, Salik and ENOC customers will enjoy a completely seamless experience through the introduction of integrated payment options for fuelling and other services across ENOC Group’s network of service stations and retail locations, with the transaction value automatically being deducted from the customer’s balance in their Salik e-wallet. It aims to streamline the customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and reduce reliance on traditional payment methods.

Following last week’s announcement of a Dubai Residential REIT’s IPO, offering 12.5% of the company’s 1.625 billion shares, the offer price has been released, indicating a range of US$ 0.292 to US$ 0.300.

Amlak Finance posted a 3.7% annual increase in Q1 net profits, after income tax, of nearly US$ 8 million, as revenue climbed 15.1% to US$ 21 million. However, revenues from financing and investing business activities declined 35.3% to US$ 6 million. The finance company also announced that it had settled 91% of its Islamic deposits to date, including Mudaraba Instrument obligations related to financiers.

Driven by stronger demand, improved efficiency, and contributions from high-performing subsidiaries, Q1 saw Union Properties posting double-digit increases in both revenue, up 18.2% on the year to US$ 44 million, and profit by 25.3% to US$ 12 million. These figures indicate that the troubled developer is progressing well with its “repair strategy”. Q1 administrative expenses were higher, attributed to increased marketing and sales efforts, linked to upcoming project launches. Furthermore, this quarter, it repaid US$ 49 million of its legacy bank debt, with a further US$ 43 million due for repayment in Q2; last year, the repayment amounted to US$ 197 million. In recent months, UP sold off land parcels for US$ 354 million—part of its five-year strategy, first announced in April 2023 – financing debt settlement and covering upfront costs for new developments. It has also made its first launch – Takaya in Motor City – for several years, with two more on the horizon. It has a pipeline of about ten million sq ft of gross floor area in land for future development.

Salik posted robust Q1 figures including revenue, rising almost 34%, to US$ 205 million, EBITDA nearly 38% higher at US$ 142 million and net profit before tax up 33.6% to US$ 111 million. The revenue hike was mainly due to two factors – the introduction of two new toll gates in Q4 and the rollout of variable pricing earlier this year. Mattar Al Tayer, Salik’s Chairman called the performance “exceptional”, whilst crediting the emirate’s strong economic growth and strategic leadership; he expects revenue to grow by 29% and noted plans to expand out beyond Dubai. It was also noted that its parking partnerships with Dubai Mall and Parkonic, garnered a promising US$ 763k in Q1 revenue.

Q1 saw Spinneys register its highest-ever quarterly revenue, as income rose 11.3% on the year to US$ 247 million, attributable to new store openings, increased online sales, and stronger demand for fresh and private label products. Adjusted EBITDA, profit before tax and net profit all posted double-digit growth – 20.6% to US$ 50 million, 23.2% to US$ 28 million and 14% to US$ 23 million respectively. Over the past twelve months, Spinneys has opened ten stores, including three in Q1, and has plans to launch up to twelve more outlets in the UAE and Saudi this year.2.74 789 22.6

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 12 May, four hundred and fifty-nine points higher, (9.4%), the previous five weeks, gained one hundred and forty- two points (0.4%), to close the trading week on 5,455 points, by Friday 16 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.01 lower the previous week, was flat, closing on US$ 3.64 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.73, US$ 5.74 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.40 and closed on US$ 0.75, US$ 6.16, US$ 2.15 and US$ 0.41. On 16 May, trading was at two hundred and seventy-one million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred million dollars, compared to one hundred and twenty-one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and sixteen million dollars on 09 May 2025.

By Friday, 09 May 2025, Brent, US$ 2.58 higher (4.2%) the previous week, gained US$ 1.51 (2.4%) to close on US$ 65.33. Gold, US$ 111 (3.4%) higher the previous week, shed US$ 154 (4.6%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,188 on 16 May. Has the gold run ended?

With President Trump seemingly indicating that a possible US-Iran nuclear deal was on the horizon, the oil market was spooked yesterday and dropped 3% in early trading. With Iran still claiming that its nuclear activities were fully peaceful and pointing that it would make a commitment not to have nuclear weapons; the US has insisted that Iran must scrap its uranium enrichment to prevent the country developing nuclear weapons. As Iran is the third-largest producer in Opec, pumping three million bpd, a lifting of sanctions would add more oil on an already flooded market

In February, any possible merger between Nissan and its larger rival Honda was scuttled as both parties could not agree to all the terms of a multi-billion combination, which would have seen the new entity in a better position to fight against the ever-increasing competition from specifically its Chinese rivals, but also European/US competition. (The US$ 60 billion merger would have created the fourth largest car manufacturer, by vehicle sales, behind Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai). Nissan’s latest financials point to an annual loss of US$ 4.5 billion. This week Japan’s third biggest carmaker announced cuts of 11k jobs and the closure of seven global plants. Prior to this, Nissan had already reduced its payroll by 9k, so the latest cutbacks bring the total number of layoffs, over the past twelve months, to about 15%, (20k), of its workforce. The Japanese company employs 6k in Sunderland, but it is not known whether these cuts will apply there; with the Starmer government saying the plant was of “vital importance” to NE England, and that it would “engage closely” with Nissan over its restructuring plans, time will tell whether the PM will come to the party.

An Australian company, now in liquidation, and previously known as Equiti Financial Services Pty Ltd, has been fined more than US$ 7 million for breaching conflicted remuneration rules. The Federal Court found that twelve of its clients were given inappropriate “cookie cutter” advice by three financial advisers, who were paid US$ 84k, to recommend they purchase properties through a related entity. It was also found that the firm received US$ 193k, with ‘advice’ being given for three years from May 2015. It seemed that the clients bought property in a development, with a company, the founder of which was the Equiti Group chairman being the sole director, and him and his wife shareholders. The court observed that “little or no heed was paid to the particular circumstances of the clients”, who were not given sufficient time to understand the advice given to them with advice focussed on “manoeuvring the clients into property purchases through SMSFs”, (self-managed super funds), and that  “the contravening conduct was plainly deliberate and extended over a period of several years”. Australia cannot be the only place in the world that something like this happens! 

Not only Dubai is weighing in on the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, as a digital derivatives trading platform has just opened in London. GFO-X, the UK’s first regulated and centrally cleared platform for crypto derivatives, is backed by fund manager M&G and has started operations with bitcoin index futures, with more expansion on the horizon. The UK’s first regulated platform for crypto derivatives is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority, with several financial companies – including Virtu Financial and Standard Chartered – already using the platform.

Official figures show that, in Q1, the UK economy confounded critics in growing 0.7% – a marked improvement on the previous quarter’s growth figure of just 0.1%. GDP growth in March came in 0.2%, again beating expectations of zero. Three major drivers were increases of 1.1% in output in the production sector, of 4% in water supply and of 0.7% in the services industry. Other contributors included wholesale, retail, car leasing, advertising and computer programming services. Like the labour figures, this data points to a resilient UK economy. Meanwhile, the GDP per capita rose 0.5% – the highest figure in a year. Chancellor Reeves should take this as a temporary victory because indicators are that Q2 could be badly impacted by several factors – 01 April tax rises, increase in employers’ NI contribution, and raising the minimum wage, the introduction of Trump’s tariffs, along with energy water and council bills all heading north.

Rachel Reeves’ changes to non-dom tax rules, in her October budget, is probably one of the main reasons that the 2024 Sunday Times Rich List has seen a 5.5% dip in the number of UK billionaires to one hundred and fifty-six; this was the largest decline seen in its thirty-seven-year history. Furthermore, the combined wealth of the three hundred and fifty entries in the List also declined, by 3%, to US$ 1.029 trillion. As a matter of interest, King Charles and ex-PM Rishi Sunak/and wife are both included – with identical wealth of US$ 851 million.

One of the biggest disgraces in the UK economy is the state and performances of its major water companies, with one MP commenting that they are a, “plaything of financial institutions looking for low risk and high reward. The last thing that anyone thinks about is the quality of water and sewerage services delivered to the public”. Thames Water, with sixteen million users, is a prime example.

In July 2023, before the October payment of a US$ 50 million dividend was paid, it so happened that Sir Adrian Montague was the chair of both Thames Water and its controlling company Kemble Water Holdings. Some government officials at the time pointed to a potentially “conflicted ­position” when his company made this “unjustified” dividend payment to its shareholders. Thames Water has long insisted that there had been conflict of interest. – no surprise there! As well as the October payment, a further intra-company dividend of US$ 210 million was paid in March 2024, which the water company claimed considered all regulatory obligations in making the payments, which were used to service debt and make pension contributions. In February 2024, Montague resigned from Kemble citing “personal” ­reasons. Thames Water is now facing a US$ 255 million penalty from the regulator Ofwat over the two ­dividends it paid out. Last week, it was in the high court seeking an emergency US$ 4.00 billion loan as it struggles to stay afloat under massive debts.

This week, the chairman addressed  MPs  on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs select committee, saying, “we know the supply interruptions cause inconvenience and sometimes real hardship, and so I think the right thing to do is to start the discussion of the [company’s] turnaround plan by acknowledging we haven’t always served our customers as well as we should, and through the committee, apologising to them.” Customers have had to face a 40% hike in sewage spills and a boil water notice in Bramley, along with a debt pile of some US$ 25.3 billion, as it continues to struggle to raise investments. Furthermore, the grovelling knight continued to defend his company paying staff bonus payments despite all its problems – many of which have been self-inflicted – adding that if bonuses were not paid, “people will come knocking, they’ll try to pick out of us the best staff we’ve got”. That is probably the best reason for not paying bonuses, but probably he would sing to a different tune if it were his personal company.

Royal Mail may have a large competitor to face if the tie-up between Evri and DHL’s UK parcel delivery service gets regulatory approval from the Competition and Markets Authority. The DHL Group will take a “significant minority stake” in Evri and will operate as Evri Group. A combination of Evri’s scale and innovation with DHL ecommerce’s best-in-class premium van network, will create a preeminent parcel delivery group in the UK that will give Royal Mail some concern. The planned combination will bring together more than 30k couriers and van drivers, and 12k further workers, handling more than one million parcels and one million letters per year at current levels.

For the past four weeks, Marks & Spencer has been bedevilled by a ‘sophisticated’ cyberattack that has left both its online operation and its supply chain in tatters. Earlier in the week, it finally admitted that some personal customer information was taken, but does not include passwords or personal information, and there was “no evidence that this data has been shared”. The ransomware attack has impacted its share price which has slumped 15% since Easter weekend – 18 -21 April.

In relation to the tariff agreement with the US, last week’s blog noted that:

‘Better news for the Starmer government came yesterday with the announcement that the US had agreed to reduce tariffs from 25% to 10% on 100k UK vehicles a year. It will also permit some steel and aluminium into the country tariff-free, but most of the other imports will be captured by the 10% levy set by Trump for most of his country’s imports on ‘Liberation Day’. Both countries also each agreed to allow the import of up to 13k metric tonnes of beef from the other country without tariffs – a major gain for the US which had previously faced 20% duties and were capped at 1k metric tonnes. Overall, the US said the deal would create a US$ 5.0 billion “opportunity” for exports, including US$ 700 million in ethanol and US$ 250 million in other agricultural products’.

Whilst the PM did manage to save hundreds of jobs for UK car industry, some of the concessions will probably see job losses. It appears that he was watching his team Arsenal playing, PSG, in the Champions League, when he took a call from Donald Trump to request tariff-free access for ethanol, which had been taxed at between 10% and 50%, depending on its use. He agreed to a 1.4 billion litre quota of tariff-free imports to the UK, a level which far outstrips the amount currently imported. This move has the potential to seriously damage the industry, and specifically ABF Sugar and Ensus, the two companies representing nearly all of the UK’s bioethanol production capacity, whilst operating the two largest facilities in the country. The bioethanol production process results in carbon dioxide and dried grains which are used in animal feed – so if there is no domestic bioethanol industry there could well be no domestic supply of those products too.

On his four-day visit to the Gulf, the US President has snared some mouth-watering deals from his hosts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The former has committed some US$ 600 billion, in the US, through a series of deals in energy, defence, technology, infrastructure and critical minerals. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman added that “we will work in the next phase to complete additional agreements, reaching US$ 1 trillion.”  Nearly 25% of the agreements was “the largest defence sales agreement in history” worth nearly US$ 142 billion, providing Saudi Arabia with defence equipment and services from more than a dozen US firms. The deals covered a range of functions, including air force advancement/space capabilities, air/missile defence; maritime/coastal security border security and land forces modernisation. Other key deals included a US$ 20 billion investment by Saudi Arabian company DataVolt in AI data centres and energy infrastructure in the US, with Google, DataVolt, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD and Uber also investing US$ 80 billion in technology in both countries. Additionally, GE Vernova will supply gas turbines and energy solutions totalling US$ 14.2 billion, while Boeing has signed a US$ 4.8 billion deal with Saudi Arabia’s AviLease, owned by the Public Investment Fund, for thirty 737-8 passenger aircraft. Saudi’s Shamekh IV Solutions will spend US$ 5.8 billion to launch a high-capacity IV fluid facility in the US. There will be several investment partnerships including the US$ 4 billion Enfield Sports Global Sports Fund, the US$ 5 billion Energy Investment Fund and the US$ 5 billion New Era Aerospace and Defence Technology Fund.

Both nations will collaborate in critical sectors such as health, energy and science; both ministries of energy concluded an agreement for co-operation, focussing on collaboration across the development, financing and deployment of energy infrastructure. There were also collaboration agreements signed on mining and mineral resources, for a CubeSat to fly on Nasa’s Artemis II test flight, and to modernise the air transport agreement to allow US airlines to carry cargo between Saudi Arabia and third countries, without needing to stop in the US. They will also boost cultural, educational and scientific partnerships.

On his Wednesday arrival in Qatar, the local airline signed a US$ 96 billion agreement to buy up to two hundred and ten Boeing aircraft, (along with jet engines by US giant GE Aerospace), in a deal that US President Donald Trump said is the “largest” in the US plane maker’s history. It is estimated that this order will create 154k new jobs, totalling more than one million in the US during the course of production and delivery. The US President also announced economic deals totalling more than US$ 243.5 billion between the US and Qatar − including the deal with Boeing and GE Aerospace. The US President also signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least US$ 1.2 trillion.

On the third and final leg of his Gulf tour, the US president pledged to strengthen bilateral ties and announced deals totalling over US$ 200 billion, with an agreement to deepen cooperation in AI. Before the trip, the UAE had already agreed to its commitment to invest US$ 1.4 trillion in US AI. During his visit, the White House announced a US$ 14.5 billion deal from Etihad Airways for twenty-eight 787 and 777 planes, powered by engines made by GE Aerospace. It said Emirates Global Aluminium would invest to develop a US$ 4 billion primary aluminium smelter project in Oklahoma, while ExxonMobil Corp Occidental Petroleum and EOG Resources were partnering with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in expanded oil and natural gas production, valued at US$ 60 billion. The U.S. has a preliminary agreement with the UAE to allow it to import 500k of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips a year, starting this year. Both nations will jointly invest US$ 440 billion in the energy sector by 2035. An agreement was signed which would see the UAE build the world’s largest AI campus outside the US. The deal also “includes the UAE committing to invest in, build, or finance US data centres that are at least as large and as powerful as those in the UAE”.

Last year, US total trade with China was an estimated US$ 582.4 billion, split between exports of US$ 143.5 billion and imports of US$ 438.9 billion – a ratio of 24.6:75.4. Earlier in the week saw the US slash tariffs by 79.3% from 145% tariffs to 30% on Chinese imports in return for the promise of talks on the future of the two countries’ trade relationship; in return, China slashed its tariffs by 80.0% from 125% to 10%. The Chinese rate could have been 10% but the US President hit the country with a further 20% levy because of Beijing’s failure to stop the export of chemicals used to flood the US with the opioid drug fentanyl. There seems no doubt that the tariff had impacts for both economies but was more damaging for China. On Monday, the greenback strengthened against a basket of currencies, global bourses moved higher and safe haven assets headed south – with gold haemorrhaging 3.5% to US$ 3,211 in early trading.  There is no doubt that Donald Trump has rewritten the handbooks on political negotiations and trade agreements whilst going about his business rather likeA Bull In A China Shop!

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Words Of Wisdom!

Posted on May 9, 2025 by howesdubai

Words of Wisdom!                                                                  09 May 2025

April 2025 was a record-breaking month for Dubai’s property market, with strong performance across all sectors, particularly off-plan developments and luxury real estate.  Market confidence is there for all to see, built on surging demand, The data reflects growing investor confidence, rising demand, (from both resident and international buyers) and an increasing portfolio of properties available from prices of US$ 272k and upwards.

According to Property Finder, April was another record month for Dubai’s property market, with transaction values topping US$ 16.93 billion – 94% higher, with one significant driver being the gains from higher deals involving Palm Jebel Ali villas and homes sold by Emaar at The Oasis, accounting for 19% and 13% of the total sales, although they only made up 2% and 4% of total transaction volumes in the off-plan space. Off-plan sales garnered US$ 9.31 billion – 124% higher on the year, with secondary sales posting 7.7k transactions, (66% higher on the year), valued at US$ 7.62 billion – up 67% compared to April 2024. During the month, one transaction stood out – a landmark US$ 395 million land transaction in DMCC-EZ2 for the upcoming Sobha Central development in Jebel Ali.

In April, total property sales, 55.4% higher, totalled 17.979k transactions, valued at US$ 19.73 billion. Split between apartments, villas plots and commercial/buildings transaction wise there were 13.737k, 3.223k, 600 and 420 deals, valued at US$ 7.27 billion, US$ 6.46 billion, US$ 2.97 billion and US$ 3.03 billion.

Average apartment and villa annual prices were mixed, with the former 2.4% lower at US$ 354k and the latter 2.2% higher at US$ 954k. Whilst commercial prices exploded by 58.8%, to US$ 518k, there were notable falls for plots and buildings – down 45.3% to US$ 954k and 66.8% to US$ 2.72 million. Apartment and villa rentals both headed north by 6.7% to US$ 22k and by 12.5% to US$ 49k. However, commercial units fell by 36% to almost US$ 20k.

Mortgage transactions more than doubled to 4.46k deals, although their value rose by only 15% to US$ 4.17 billion.

A fam report indicates that there was a 126% surge in volume of five hundred and ninety-nine plot sales, worth US$ 2.97 billion, a 42.3% hike in apartment sales at 13.74k, valued at US$ 7.28 billion, and a 54% annual increase in commercial property transactions, at four hundred and nineteen, worth US$ 300 million, with the average price per sq ft of US$ 431.

Over the past five years, Dubai’s property market has exploded as can be seen from a comparison of April sales. In April 2020, there were 1.7k transactions worth US$ 981 million  compared to April 2025 there were  Dubai property sales for the month of April have now soared by 1,633 per cent in value over the last five years – from US$ 981 million (1,700 transactions) in 2020, US$ 2.97 billion (4,800) in 2021, US$ 4.77 billion (6,900) in 2022, US$ 7.17billion (8,000) in 2023 and US$ 8.72 billion (11,600) in 2024 and last month’s new high.

With properties worth more than US$ 1.36 million, (AED 5 million) accounting for 11% of total sales, 31% came in the US$ 272k – US$ 545k, (AED 1-2 million range), 27% below  US$ 272k, (AED1 million), 18% between US$ 545k – US$ 817k, (AED 2-3 million) and 14 per cent between US$ 817k – US$ 1.36 million, (AED 3-5 million).

The most expensive individual property sold in April was a luxury villa at Palm Jumeirah which fetched US$ 49 million. The most expensive apartment sold during the month went for over US$ 42 million at Bulgari Lighthouse Dubai at Island 2.

Overall, first sales from developers were significantly greater than those of resales — 67% over 33% both in terms of volume and overall value.

MGM confirmed that that the construction of the MGM Tower in Dubai is in full swing and set to be completed by Q3 2027.  President and CEO, William Hornbuckle, commented in a Q1 earnings call, that “we’re literally up on the fifth floor of the MGM tower as we speak. It’s an exciting project, a truly interesting resort with all kinds of features. Hopefully we’ll get to add gaming,” Last month, the hotel and gaming operator stated that it had “a non-gaming management agreement with Wasl Hospitality to bring the Bellagio, Aria, and MGM Grand brands to Dubai”. Eight years ago, Dubai-based Wasl Hospitality and Leisure signed an agreement with MGM to advise on the development of a premier destination resort in Dubai and to operate the resort when completed. At that time, it was thought that the twenty-six-acre beachfront site would also include an MGM Hotel, MGM Residences and a Bellagio Hotel, marking the debut of the MGM and Bellagio brand names in the ME region. Last month, high ranking members of the MGM team, including Chairman Paul Salem, met Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, to update the government about “opportunities that we could bring to the UAE and Dubai specifically”.

Days after Chelsea FC beat the EPL champions, Liverpool, their new shirt sponsor, Damac Properties officially launched a new residential project in Dubai Maritime City in collaboration with the English club. ‘Chelsea Residences by DAMAC’ will comprise 1.4k apartments, (one to three bedroom), housed in six towers, reaching 130 mt high. The development will incorporate a range of Chelsea-branded amenities, including a rooftop football pitch, branded fitness and wellness facilities, and a private cinema. Other features planned for the towers include an infinity pool, cryotherapy centre, yoga studio, and multiple recreational areas. The starting price is US$ 591k but no handover date was released.

According to Haider Tuaima, ValuStrat’s MD, “securing an affordable home to buy or rent is becoming more difficult in an increasingly unaffordable market.” The consultancy noted that there had been consistent annual growth in capital values across all segments, with villas and apartment rising 30.3% and 21.4%, along with rents moving higher 5.1% and 10.0%. It estimated that 27k new homes were completed last year, (which seems to be on the low side), but that around 61.6k new homes are estimated to be delivered this year, including the 12k already handed over in Q1. It also estimated that 141.4k apartments and 29.6k villas and town houses are actively under construction, with handovers promised by 2029; 24% of this number will be constructed in just three locations – Jumeirah Village Circle, (12%), Business Bay, (7%) and Jumeirah Lakes Towers, (5%).

Q1 off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations, valued at US$ 21.06 billion, declined by 8.0% on the quarter but was 37.5% higher on the year. For secondary ready homes, the quarter registered an annual 5.8% rise, to 12.4k transactions, valued at US$ 9.00 billion, but compared to Q4 2024 down 7.0%. In Q1, the real estate market registered 9.4k mortgage transactions, valued at US$ 5.72 billion, and 14.4k cash transaction, worth US$ 9.00 billion.

Interestingly, when analysing data from a decade ago, whilst most apartment communities, (with the exception of Palm Jumeirah, The Greens and Jumeirah Beach Residence), remain 8.1% lower than their capital values now than they did then, whilst villa valuations are 59.9% higher.

There is no doubt that the property market, especially over the past ten years, has benefitted from progressive government initiatives including the ten-year golden visa, residency permits for retired and remote workers, and overall growth in the UAE’s economy on diversification efforts. Q1 has witnessed consistent annual growth in capital values across all segments, with the main exception being the decline, on the quarter, in residential sales, both off-plan and ready properties, as well as a decrease in mortgage applications. Villa capital gains posted a 30.3% annual and a 6.2% return, with the most significant annual growth in Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and The Meadows, with Mudon posting the lowest gains. Meanwhile apartment values slowed increasing 21.4% annually and 3.8% quarterly, with the highest gains in The Greens, Dubailand Residence Complex, Palm Jumeirah, Town Square and The Views. When it comes to rents, apartments, at 1.6% quarterly and 10.0% annually, fared slightly better than villa quarterly rents remaining flat and 5.1% annually.

After the success of its first Dubai project, Mr Eight Development has announced the launch of its second residential project property in Dubai – Villa del GAVI, located on Dubai Islands. The twelve-storey project comprises eighty-seven two-to-four-bedroom apartments, including three bedrooms plus maid, all with expansive floor-to-ceiling windows, open-concept living areas and private balconies. Residents will be able to utilise two infinity-edge swimming pools, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, a private residents’ clubhouse and an artfully curated lobby, showcasing furniture by Cassina, Minotti and lighting by Tom Dixon, FLOS and ZONDA. Prices for the two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments start at US$ 981k, US$ 1.74 million and US$ 2.59 million. Handover is slated for Q4 2027.

A new US$ 817 million luxury offering has been unveiled that will include the region’s first Buddha-Bar Hotel, Island.  Developed in collaboration with George V Eatertainment/Buddha-Bar International, the project includes a one hundred and sixty-two-key overwater hotel, a collection of floating villas, and a dedicated Buddha-Bar Beach Honeymoon Island. Located in the Heart of Europe, (a heart-shaped archipelago that features six themed islands – St Petersburg, Sweden, Switzerland, the Floating Venice, Germany and main Europe), on Dubai’s World Islands, the aim is to capture the attention of European luxury travellers and the thriving UAE and GCC staycation demographic. The entire six-island project is being developed by the Kleindienst Group, founded by Josef Kleindienst; work started in 2016, with handover date scheduled for September 2022 but later revised to 2026. The Heart of Europe project was designed to include more than 4k keys across twenty distinct hotels and resorts. The project is aiming for completion by the end of 2027, with 52% of construction progress achieved so far.  Last July, Kleindienst Group sold out the first phase of its US$ 272 million Marbella Resort Hotel, Vignette Collection by IHG Hotels. Last year, the Heart of Europe and IHG Hotels and Resorts partnered to operate Côte d’Azur Monaco Hotel under the voco brand.

DMCC has appointed Ali & Sons Contracting Company – Sole Proprietorship LLC the main construction contract for two new state-of-the-art commercial towers offering a combined 62k sq mt square metres of Grade A commercial and retail space. This will be part of the second phase of Uptown Dubai’s transformative development and will be seamlessly connected to the iconic Uptown Tower by a new link bridge.

Disney, in conjunction with Miral, is to open a theme park and resort on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi on a site where Miral already operates SeaWorld and Warner Bros World. The announcement came a week before an official visit of Donald Trump where he has already promised a series of business deals. Disney, which is not funding the operation, will be responsible for handling the design and development, while Miral will construct and operate the facility; the US company will earn royalties and service fees. A joint statement indicated that the resort will include themed accommodation, restaurants and retail outlets and “storytelling in a way that celebrates both the heritage of Disney and the futuristic and cultural essence of Abu Dhabi”.

The first Primark store in the region will open at The Avenues Mall in Kuwait in H2, after it was announced that the iconic budget store had partnered with Kuwait’s franchise operator Alshaya Group.  After that, Dubai will be the next destination in the region to welcome the brand with three outlets in Dubai Mall, Mall of the Emirates and City Centre Mirdif, to open in Q1 2026. Now found in fifteen European countries and boasting sixteen stores in the US, the brand sells everything from socks to home furnishings, cosmetics, womenswear, menswear and childrenswear. John Hadden, Alshaya’s CEO, added that, “Price is the same. We’re going to do jeans at a starting price of AED 50, (US$ 13.62), and a basic t-shirt will be AED 15, (US$ 4.09).

In 2024, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) posted a 16% growth in digital revenue to US$ 1.20 billion, as the total number of transactions, across digital channels, reached 679.6 million. Interestingly, issued parking tickets, through smart applications, grew to 29.973 million. Noting that the RTA will expand the growth in its digital services, from the thirty-three services already in use, its Chairman, Mattar Al Tayer, added, it aims to “lead in harnessing artificial intelligence to deliver exceptional services, develop innovative solutions, and increase residents’ and visitors’ happiness”. The RTA also installed five smart kiosks across the city to facilitate online payments and upgraded its website to include the ability to rent spaces at tram and metro stations, with 360-degree views of available locations.

The latest car to join the prestigious fleet of police vehicles is a Rolls Royce Cullinan, which has been further customised by the automotive specialist Mansory. Dubai Police have a range of cars, mainly used for PR purposes, including a Bugatti Veyron, Aston Martin One-77, Lamborghini Aventador, Ferrari FF, BMW i8, Tesla Cybertruck and a 3D-printed SWAT truck, along with numerous other supercars and high-end performance vehicles. Such vehicles will never be seen in car chases but will patrol the various tourist locations.

The region has emerged as the second fastest growing global region, with the ME aviation market projected to reach US$ 28.38 billion this year, with a 4.4% compound annual growth rate forecast through 2030. South Asia came in first with a 12.0% growth figure. Since the pre-pandemic year of 2019, annual growth has been around the 5.0% mark. Its new enhanced position has been driven by standout performances from the three UAE flagship carriers – Emirates, flydubai, Etihad  and Air Arabia – and its world class infrastructure. Emirates Group, Saudia Group and Qatar Airways are the top three carriers by group position, with a combined one hundred and twenty-seven million departing seats. flynas, with a 63% annual growth, and flydubai were the two fastest growing airlines in the region, garnering a combined total of 14.4 million seats; the Saudi carrier, (which edged its Dubai peer by just 25k seats) posted a 63% capacity increase in 2024.  Low-cost carriers bagged 29% of ME capacity, up from 13% in 2019, with flydubai playing a key role in this shift; the carrier serves one hundred and thirteen destinations, across fifty-three countries, focusing on underserved routes and secondary cities.

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise announced that it had completed the 100% acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital Designated Activity Company and its consolidated subsidiaries, with the enterprise value of around US$ 2.0 billion. The Dubai-based company now has a fleet of approximately seven hundred and fifty owned, managed and committed aircraft. The owned and managed fleet, of approximately six hundred and fifty aircraft, is on lease to one hundred and sixty-one airlines in seventy-four countries. In addition, DAE has commitments to acquire approximately one hundred aircraft from Boeing, Airbus, ATR, and trading counterparties. Firoz Tarapore, Chief Executive Officer of DAE, commented, “Our fleet of six hundred and fifty owned and managed aircraft now makes us the third largest aircraft lessor globally by number of aircraft. This transaction augments our position as a global leader in aircraft leasing and enhances our ability to offer more cost-effective solutions to our current and prospective clients. This transaction also offers us the opportunity to deepen our relationship with the OEMs across a broader range of aircraft types.”

This week, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid met with the foreign trade team at the Ministry of Economy and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) negotiation team, in recognition of their exceptional performance. He commended the strong coordination among the entities leading the UAE’s foreign trade efforts, encouraging continued innovation to preserve the country’s leading position on the global trade map and to sustain the growth of its international trade relations. He also commented that trade has long been a foundation of great civilisations and remains a key pillar of sustainable economic growth and noted that the  teams played a pivotal role in driving the UAE’s foreign trade to a historic record level in 2024, with total trade reaching AED 5.23 trillion, (US$ 142.51 billion) and a trade surplus exceeding AED 490 billion, (US$ 133.52 billion). HH Sheikh Mohammed expressed his appreciation to all those contributing to the growth of the UAE’s trade ecosystem, noting that their efforts were helping to write the success story of a nation committed to global economic leadership.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Ruler of Dubai, confirmed that Artificial Intelligence will become part of the curriculum in UAE public schools as from the start of the next academic year, and added that it was a crucial step towards equipping future generations with the skills needed for an evolving world. He praised the Ministry of Education for developing the curriculum and highlighted the need of teaching young students not only the technical aspects of AI but also its ethical and societal dimensions. He emphasised that preparing children for the future requires equipping them with new capabilities that go beyond the conditions of the present.

There will be a 2.35% increase for for-profit schools starting in August for the 2025 – 2026 academic year. The index, approved by the Knowledge and Human Development Authority, is based on the annual review of audited financial statements submitted, by private schools, in collaboration with the Digital Dubai Authority. It reflects the operational costs of running a school — such as staff salaries, support services, and rental expenses — while ensuring the delivery of high-quality education. KHDA has notified all private schools in the emirate of the requirements for submitting fee adjustment requests for the upcoming academic year. All schools have to apply for a fee increase up to the approved ECI, with each application vetted by the KHDA; new (those that have less than a three-year history), are not eligible to apply.  KHDA’s Shamma Al Mansouri commented that this approach reflected the government’s commitment to transparency and efficiency in education and supports the goals of the Education 33 Strategy, which aims to enhance Dubai’s position as a global hub for quality education.

Having seen fifteen new schools opening in the emirate over the past two academic years, KHDA is currently reviewing over twenty applications for new schools, scheduled to open within the next two years. Dubai is home to two hundred and twenty-seven private schools, educating 387.4k students, from one hundred and eighty-five nationalities. Over the past two years, student numbers have risen 12% and 6%. The target of Education Strategy 33 is one hundred new schools by 2033.

UAE credit card payments are projected to top US$ 154.09 billion this year, which would be 10.6% higher than the 2024 total of US$ 139.35 billion; this increase is due to several factors including the country’s progressive payment structure, rising consumer preference for digital transactions and government-led financial inclusion initiatives. GlobalData’s report, “UAE Cards and Payments: Opportunities and Risks to 2028,” expects that with a projected compound annual 9.6% growth rate, card payments will reach US$ 221.80 billion by 2029.

This week, the Central Bank released banking data for February:

money supply aggregate M1            up 1.8%          US$ 267.82 billion

                                    US$ 1.12 billion growth in currency in circulation outside banks

                                    US$ 3.68 billion rise in monetary deposits

money supply aggregate M2            up 1.8%          US$ 643.57 billion                             

elevated M1, and a US$ 6.81 billion rise in Quasi-Monetary Deposits.

money supply aggregate M3            up 0.8%          US$ 766.59 billion                                               growth in M2, overriding US$ 5.18 billion dip in govt deposits

monetary base                                   up 3.1%          US$ 222.51 billion                               

up 3.4% in currency issued      up 11.4% in banks & OFCs’ current accounts & overnight deposits of banks at CBUAE 

up 6.2% in monetary bills & Islamic certificates of deposit down 6.1% in reserve account

gross banks’ assets                           up 1.6%          US$ 1,263.43 billion

banks’ deposits                                  up 1.2%          US$ 783.27billion                                                                   resident deposits                    0.8%          US$ 715.40 billion   

                                    non-resident deposits            5.1%               US$ 67.87 billion

Latest figures from Dubai Chamber of Commerce showed that there had been a 7.0% increase in the Q1 issue of Certificates of Origin, to 204k, and processed goods worth nearly US$ 268 million, under the ATA Carnet system. During the period, 18.16k new companies joined the chamber whilst there was a 75% hike, to twenty-eight, in local businesses being supported in expanding into international markets. Mediation services more than tripled, handling forty-five cases worth short of US$ 2.0 million, while networking events drew over 1.6k attendees. Exports and re-exports by chamber members reached US$ 23.43 billion, (AED 86 billion), between January and March, a 16.8% increase compared to the same period last year. Two new business councils were added in Q1 – Indonesia and Hungary.

Claiming to be the world’s most profitable airline, Emirates Group yet again posted record numbers for the year ending 31 March 2025. Revenue showed an 6% hike to US$ 39.6 billion, whilst profit before tax was US$ 6.2 billion. After accounting for the new 9% corporate tax rate, the Group’s net profit after tax came in on US$5.6 billion. The Group reported a record cash balance of US$ 14.6 billion, 1% higher on the year, whilst also posting its highest-ever EBITDA of US$11.5 billion, up 6% on the previous financial year. A dividend of US$ 1.6 billion was declared for its owners, the Investment Corporation of Dubai. Emirates Airline registered a record profit before tax of US$ 5.8 billion – 20% higher compared to the previous financial year – with record revenue, up 6% to US$ 34.9 billion. Its cash balance was 16% higher at US$13.5 billion. dnata also reported record profit before tax of US$ 430 million, an increase of 2%, with revenue, 10% higher, posting a record US$ 5.8 billion.

The latest government entity that is going public is Dubai Residential REIT, with Dubai Holding offering 12.5% of its capital, equating to 1.625 billion shares, on the Dubai Financial Market. The First Tranche is allocated 10% of the offer units, representing 162.5 million shares, with the Second Tranche being allocated 90% of the Offer Units, amounting to 1.462,500 billion units; the offering subscription period is expected to run for eight days to 20 May. A day later will see the final price offer announcement, with trading expected to start on 28 May. Dubai Residential REIT is a Shariah-compliant investment fund that manages 35.7k residential units across different key parts of Dubai and will become the region’s largest listed REIT, with a gross asset value of US$ 5.89 billion. Dividends, which are distributed in April and October, will be the higher of US$ 300 million (AED 1.10 billion) or an amount equal to 80% of profit for the period before changes in fair value of investment property for each accounting period, subject to Board approval.

Dubai Taxi Company posted Q1 revenue of US$ 160 million, (and 7.0% on like for like comparisons), driven mainly by fleet expansion across segments and the strong performance of DTC’s taxis, (up 7.0% to US$ 140 million due to increased trip numbers and an additional two hundred and fifty fully electric vehicles entering the fleet), and delivery bike operations – 110% higher on the year. 86% of the company’s fleet of 6.2k vehicles are either hybrid or electric EBITDA was down 9.0% on the year to US$ 42 million, with a healthy 26% margin, (excluding the impact of Connectech, EBITDA would have seen a 4.0% rise and a 30% margin). Reported net profit declined by 23.0% to US$ 23 million, attributable to the impact of the promotional discounts offered as part of Bolt’s launch campaign. DTC carried a cash balance of US$ 78 million, as at 31 March, including Wakala deposits. Shareholders approved a final cash dividend of US$ 33 million for H2 2024, representing US$ 0.0133 per share and 85% of net profit, in accordance with the Company’s dividend policy. The approved dividend was distributed to shareholders in April 2025.

Emaar Properties posted a 50% surge in Q1 annual revenue to US$ 2.75 billion, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, 24% higher, at US$ 1.47 billion. The main drivers behind these impressive results include robust real estate demand from a series of twelve successful project launches, (including ‘The Valley’), and continued investor confidence across its diversified portfolio. Net profit came in 27% higher at US$ 1.47 billion, with property sales rising 42% to US$ 5.26 billion; sales backlog rose 62% on the year to stand at US$ 34.60 billion.

Meanwhile Emaar Development’s revenue surged 43% to US$ 1.36 billion in Q1, as net profit before tax increased by 49% to US$ 763 million, The company’s tax bill jumped 148% on the year to US$ 112 million.

The DFM General Index had a stunning April, posting the biggest monthly gain, at 4.1%, in the GCC to close at 5,307 points; in March, it had declined, but YTD is 2.9% to the good. Five of its eight sectors registered growth during the month including the financial index – up 5.9% and driven by CBD (22.8% higher) and communications – 7.9% higher, mainly attributable to du (EIT) shares rising 7.9%. However, Dubai Islamic Insurance and DIB were big monthly losers shedding 12.0% and 10.2%. On the flip side, the materials index slumped 22.7% in the month, with National Cement 22.7% lower. Trading activity rose dramatically from March’s 3.6 billion shares to 4.7 billion, with the value 13.4 – 3% higher on the month at US$ 3.49 billion. The three most actively traded shares in April were Drake & Scull, Talabat and Shuaa Capital, trading 553.7 million, 544.3 million 454.3 million shares respectively. Value-wise, the leading three were Emaar Properties, DIB and Salik which traded 3.9 billion, 1.2 billion and 1.1 billion shares.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 05 May, four hundred and thirty-seven points higher, (8.2%), the previous four weeks, gained twenty-two points (0.4%), to close the trading week on 5,313 points, by Friday 10 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.42 higher the previous four weeks, shed 0.1, closing on US$ 3.64 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.73, US$ 5.64 US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.39 and closed on US$ 0.73, US$ 5.74 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.40. On 09 May, trading was at one hundred and twenty-one million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and sixteen million dollars, compared to one hundred and thirty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-two million dollars on 02 May 2025.

By Friday, 09 May 2025, Brent, US$ 6.65 lower (9.8%) the previous fortnight, gained US$ 2.58 (4.2%) to close on US$ 63.82. Gold, US$ 110 (3.3%) lower the previous fortnight, gained US$ 111 (3.4%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,342 on 09 May.

Last Saturday, eight OPEC+ member countries agreed to a further accelerated oil output hike for June of 411k bpd; in April, the cartel had made a surprising May increase of also 411k bpd. A day earlier, the initial 411k bpd hike, along with the impact of the tariffs and the possibility of a US-Sino trade war saw Brent oil prices slump to US$ 61.29. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may be reluctant to prop up oil markets with further supply cuts and is concerned that Kazakhstan and Iraq have been producing above their OPEC+ targets. The group is cutting output by over five million bpd and many of the cuts are due to remain in place until the end of 2026.

It appears that Shell Plc is keen to acquire its UK rival BP, but that any bid will likely depend on whether BP stock, and oil prices, continues to slide; BP shares have lost almost a third of their value over the past twelve months and Brent oil has slumped by over 20% YTD to hover around the US$ 60 level. There is the likelihood that, with other energy giants interested, it may wait for another suitor to bid, or it will revert its focus on share buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions. A Shell spokesman noted that “as we have said many times before, we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification”. In recent years, the once close rivals were almost identical when it came to size, reach and global clout. Times have changed so that when it comes to market cap, Shell’s US$ 197 billion is 266% larger than that of BP. Much of BP’s fall from grace, and prolonged underperformance, came during the reign of Bernard Looney and his net-zero strategy insistence. Better late than never, under his successor as CEO, Murray Auchincloss, BP has returned to being a proper oil company.

Under a one-year transitional services agreement, Modella Capital, the new owner of WH Smith’s high street chain, as from March, has effectively been barred from launching a wave of mass store closures for at least twelve months. It was also reported that WH Smith would have the right to cancel a year-long TSA put in place with Modella Capital if it launched a company voluntary arrangement before the first anniversary of the transaction’s completion. The specialist retail and consumer investment boutique agreed to acquire its four hundred and eighty high street shops for US$ 101 million, with the intention to rebrand the chain under the name TG Jones, after it eventually takes control. Over the past nine months, Modella has acquired Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop and now plans to initiate CVAs for both.

The overall value of UK bakery market sales is about US$ 6.64 billion, equating to eleven million loaves being sold daily. The three biggest bakers of prepacked bread, with a combined market share of around 75% are Warburtons, (34%), Hovis (24%) and Allied (17%). Hovis employs some 2.7k, operates eight bakery sites and its own flour mill. There has been an ongoing decline in the sale of supermarket bread all this century and bread producers have been impacted by numerous factors including persistent inflation, (of late, mainly the impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices), increased competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits to “healthier”, lower-carb bread or giving it up. If both parties agree to merge, it will be met by its biggest obstacle – the government watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority will decide on whether a merger would be viable if two of the top three bread suppliers become one.

Novo Nordisk has cut its 2025 revenue growth forecast figures from 16% to 24% to 13% to 21%, mainly because of the inroads copycat versions have made into the market. Four years ago, the drug was introduced and since then, Wegovy and Ozempic has seen many alternatives compounded versions taking advantage of the drug’s popularity. Furthermore, US regulators seemed to have enabled them to enter the market to ease short supplies. Now the FDA has told pharmacies that by 22 May, they have to cease selling such drugs, indicating that semaglutide, which is marketed as Wegovy for weight-loss and Ozempic for diabetes, is no longer in short supply. On that news, Novo shares pushed 6.8% higher on the Copenhagen bourse.

The recent debacle of its closure probably was the straw that broke the camel’s back, as many airlines, specifically BA and Virgin Atlantic, vented their ire. According to Shai Weiss, Virgin’s supremo, London Heathrow is “the most expensive airport in the world”, and that airlines have long been unhappy with the airport’s costs and service levels. In a rare move of unity, they have now bandied together to demand reforms, including a vote on spending decisions and the opportunity to potentially run terminals.

In the fiscal year, ending 31 March, Japan’s average unemployment rate dipped 0.1% to 2.5%, aided by a labour shortage – the first improvement in two years; the number of unemployed people dropped by 30k to 1.75 million, whilst the number of those with jobs grew 370k to 67.93 million, the highest level since comparable data became available in 1953.  There was a 20k decline in the number of people dismissed by employers, to 220k, with those who left their jobs voluntarily remaining flat at 750k.

Last year, education exports, (including tuition fees and spend on goods and services by students, while living in the country and accounting for 58% of the total), are Australia’s fourth-largest export. They totalled US$ 33.24 billion last year – 9.8% higher than in 2023 and up 28.6% from their pre-pandemic peak. The figure may have been greater if it were not for changes to government policies, including the tightening up of eligibility requirements and lifting visa costs. Although there was a 17% uptick in exports for higher education, English language schools and vocational education fell by 32% and 2% respectively. China remains Australia’s largest education export destination, accounting for 25% of the total, driven by a 22% uplift in 2024; Vietnam posted a 37% hike in 2024.

Arada has acquired the New South Wales arm of Roberts Co., a Tier-1 construction firm with a track record of delivering projects in multiple sectors. Part of the deal sees the Sharjah-based developer investing US$ 12 million to immediately recapitalise Roberts Co (NSW), securing one hundred and twenty direct jobs and providing ‘stability’ to a further six hundred in Sydney’s construction sector. It is also ‘prepared’ to invest up to US$ 64 million on ‘Roberts Co’s expansion into new sectors and geographies, with the goal of building a global presence and targeting annual revenues of US$ 627 million by 2028’. Only last year, Arada, with its CEO, Ahmed Alkhoshaibi, in its first overseas foray, had laid plans to create more than 2k homes in Sydney. He noted that Roberts will ‘help us to deliver our future projects in Australia with greater control and cost efficiencies – as well as reduced risk’, said Ahmed Alkhoshaibi, Group CEO of Arada. During the transition, key Roberts Co senior staff – that includes executive chairman, George Kostas, the previous CEO of Majid Al Futtaim – will remain in situ.

Australian house prices trended higher last month, as indicated by Cotality’s Home Value, with more of the same in the coming months because of lower interest rates and the continuing tight supply in inventory. The index posted a 0.3% monthly rise – its third straight month of positivity – as the national median value of an Australian dwelling reached US$ 532.8k.  Sydney and Melbourne posted the smallest monthly rises at 0.2%, with Hobart and Darwin at the top, with increases of 1.1% and 0.9%; the other four cities, including Brisbane, Perth and Canberra had 0.4% rises and Adelaide 0.3%. The eight capital cites recorded the following percentage annual median increases:

     Median Value
%ageUS$ – ‘000
Sydney0.9%771.2
Melbourne-2.2%507.5
Brisbane7.8%586.1
Adelaide9.8%533.1
Perth10.0%521.1
Hobart 0.5%428.9
Darwin2.5%339.8
Canberra-0.6%558
Combined Capitals2.6%584.7
Combined Regionals5.3%436.6
On Wednesday, and indeed widely expected, the US Federal Reserve held its interest rates on the basis that they want to see a clearer indicator of the US economy; this was the fourth consecutive month that rates have remained unchanged at between 4.25% to 4.50%. Last September, before the Fed cut rates by 50 bp to 4.75% to 5.0%, followed by two successive monthly cuts of 0.25%.  

In what turned out to be a much closer vote than expected, the monetary policy committee voted 5-4 to cut rates by 0.25% to 4.25% – the fourth time this has occurred since August 2024. Rates are now at a two-year low, with the BoE warning of lower growth, amid fierce global trade tensions. Two members had voted for a 0.5% reduction whilst two more members wanted to keep them unchanged. Governor Andrew Bailey had the casting vote and went for a 0.25% cut. So much for analysts’ viewpoint with the consensus pointing to an 8-1 0.25% reduction.   For the fourth consecutive month, the latest S&P Global construction purchasing managers’ index nudged 0.2 higher to 46.6, still well in negative territory, (any reading below 50 points to contraction). Housebuilding showed a degree of resilience, with activity contracting bythe least so far this year. Because new work slowed, civil engineering remained the weakest-performing area of construction activity, whilst commercial construction fell at the fastest pace since May 2020, attributable to business uncertainty and concerns about the UK economic outlook weighing on client demand.

After three years of stop-start negotiations, the UK and India have struck an “ambitious” trade deal that will see Indian tariffs cut on cosmetics and medical devices, and will deliver a US$ 6.41 billion boost to the UK GDP, as well as increase in bilateral trade by US$ 34.06 billion; it will also slash tariffs on products such as whisky and gin.  However, the not-so good news was the addition of a “double contribution convention”, where Indian workers who are transferred to the UK – and their employers – do not have to pay national insurance for three years, but they will pay social security taxes in India. The fact that NI employers’ contribution rose 1.2% to 15.0% only last month, along with the rise in the minimum wage, makes this move more galling not only to UK taxpayers but also to senior members of the governing Labour Party. When Trade Minister Douglas Alexander was asked, “Is it a pretty big incentive for these companies to employ Indian workers over British workers”?, he replied “No, because these are Indian workers living and working in India who are really coming in for a temporary period, it’s not a permanent arrangement.” Even the Indian government noted that the NIC exemption was a “huge win” and was an “unprecedented achievement”. It added that “this will make Indian service providers significantly more competitive in the UK”. The Starmer government has yet to confirm how many Indian workers and firms would benefit from the change or how much it would cost the Treasury in lost revenue.

Initially, 90% of tariffs will be reduced, and after a decade 85% of them will be tariff-free. Whiskey and gin will see levies halved by half to 75% dipping 5% a year to 40% by 2034; automotive tariffs will go from more than 100% to 10% under a quota. Indian consumers will benefit from lower tariffs on cosmetics, aerospace, lamb, medical devices, salmon, electrical machinery, soft drinks, chocolate and biscuits; UK shoppers will see cheaper prices and more choice on products including clothes, footwear, and food products, including frozen prawns. It seems that under the agreement, 99% of Indian exports will have zero duty. The UK has agreed to lower tariffs on Indian textiles and apparel – a big employer in India, and it will also make it easier for Indian professionals to come to the UK, something the Indians have been pushing hard on. However, it has not lowered tariffs on milled rice, out of fear it could decimate native industries whilst India had done likewise for dairy.

Better news for the Starmer government came yesterday with the announcement that the US had agreed to reduce tariffs from 25% to 10% on 100k UK vehicles a year. It will also permit some steel and aluminium into the country tariff-free, but most of the other imports will be captured by the 10% levy set by Trump for most of his country’s imports on ‘Liberation Day’. Both countries also each agreed to allow the import of up to 13k metric tonnes of beef from the other country without tariffs – a major gain for the US which had previously faced 20% duties and were capped at 1k metric tonnes. Overall, the US said the deal would create a US$ 5.0 billion “opportunity” for exports, including US$ 700 million in ethanol and US$ 250 million in other agricultural products.

Although Keir Starmer described the agreement as a “fantastic platform”, actually no formal deal was signed, and the announcements were feather light on details. No surprise that the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, criticised the deal, saying it amounted to tariffs being lowered by the UK, while being hiked in the US. And that “this is not a historic deal with the US, we’ve been shafted.”

On Saturday, Warren Buffett announced his retirement as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, the Omaha company he founded sixty years ago. The ninety-four-year-old, who built a US$ 1.16 trillion investment conglomerate, from a failing textile manufacturer, confirmed that his position would be taken by Greg Abel, the vice-chairman. True to form and custom, he had regaled the shareholders at the sixtieth AGM, ending by offering this advice – “You really want to work at something you enjoy,” and “if you find people who are wonderful to work with, that’s the place to go”. Perhaps the ‘Sage of Omaha’s last Words of Wisdom!

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Empty Promises!

Posted on May 2, 2025 by howesdubai

Empty Promises!                                                                     02 May 2025

This week, Trump International Hotel & Tower, located in Downtown Dubai, was launched, in collaboration between London-listed luxury real estate developer Dar Global and The Trump Organisation. With eighty floors, the tower will be three hundred and fifty mt high and will host two distinctive penthouses, with sky pools, and both having floor-to-ceiling windows, with sweeping views of the Dubai skyline. It will also offer private lounges, personalised service, and other amenities for guests, as well as ‘The Trump’, which is a private, members-only club. The property will feature an exclusive resort-style pool dedicated to residents only, whilst it will boast the highest outdoor pool in the world.

At the launch, the US President’s son, Eric Trump, extolled, (quite rightly) the UAE leadership. He noted that, when comparing the UAE to Europe, “there is no bureaucracy here. If they love an idea, if it’s a good idea, a smart idea, they say yes. We got permits for a building that’s 1,150 feet tall, with the highest swimming pool anywhere in the world, in one month, because they love the concept. They love the idea and they were willing to say yes”.

Another week and another survey, with this one forecasting 300k new residential units over the next four years, including 81.1k this year alone. Only last week, this blog posted on its ‘You Better Get A Move On’ edition that:

‘Property Monitor estimates that over 7.8k residential units were handed over in Q1 and that by the end of this year the number will top 71.3k – and, that being the case, it will be  over 50% more than any other number of annual handovers posted in the past decade; it reckons that in 2026 and 2027, the numbers are expected to be 80.0k and 58.8k, which will be an average annual 70k for the next three years’.

The consultancy expected that over the next three years units would have increased by 210k. The difference between the two is say 20k, 300k (an annual 75k average) and 280k (an average 70k) whilst this blog will be looking at 240k over the next four years. Assuming a 6% population growth, there will be 4.878 million residing in the emirate by the end of 2028, and assuming that the number of units at the end of 2024 was at 860k, there would be 1.11 million units, (860k + 240k), in 2028, split between 900k apartments, (housing 3.870 million), and 210k villas, (housing 1.113 million); this shows that 4.983 million will be housed – a gap of only 105k. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there still will be an inventory shortage in four years’ time. However, it is all but inevitable that this almost five-year bull run will eventually come to a soft landing, as some major global economic event(s) hits consumer/investor confidence.

Provident Estate’s Dubai Property Market Report Q1 2025 notes that there is a healthy supply pipeline, and that the ongoing property boom is driven by investor confidence, strategic urban planning, and a thriving off-plan sector. There was a 50% hike in transaction volumes, to 42.3k, with sales values at US$ 31.10 billion, with the average unit price rising to US$ 736k. Of the total, the off-plan sector dominated with over 25k apartment units and 6.6k townhouse and villa units registered. The consultancy noted that “communities like Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, and Al Furjan are leading the charge, offering diverse opportunities for investors and end-users”. The demand for compact apartments continues, with JVC leading the pack with its studio and one-bedroom units. Over the past six months, there has been a 28.6% increase in the price per sq ft for off-plan apartments – at US$ 525. There was a marked increase in demand in premium off-plan villa communities, such as The Valley and Palm Jebel Ali.

In the luxury sector, villa prices have risen 13% since Q3 2024, driven by demand for spacious, premium residences. Dubai’s luxury market is thriving as high-net-worth individuals seek exclusive properties in prime locations. In the ready property for apartments, one-bedroom units in JVC led transactions, followed by Dubai Marina and Business Bay; for townhouses and villas, Damac Lagoons, Damac Hills 2, and Dubai Hills Estate were popular.

An interesting statistic from the Dubai Land Department reported a 34% annual increase in foreign investments. There is no doubt that Dubai is going all out to make the emirate one of the best places, in the world, to work, live, invest and holiday. Indeed, the 2040 Urban Master Plan aims to enhance liveability and sustainability, with investments in infrastructure and green spaces.

Ora Developers, a newcomer to the UAE, has revealed plans for a major project, Bayn – a 4.8 million sq mt coastal community development in Ghantoot. The masterplan has been designed to encompass three distinctive urban nuclei – beach shore living, resort living and town living – interlinked with an eco-friendly transportation system, and all connected coherently. Planned to be a multiple-nuclei city, to suit the various need of residents, housing units will cater for diverse segments of Bayn’s new population.

With a twenty-year international track record, Tomorrow World Properties has forayed into the Dubai realty market, with an initial launch of ‘Tomorrow 166’, as part of its broader ME expansion strategy. The company, which has established a regional base in Dubai, has indicated that this will be the first of several planned projects in the country, with further announcements later in the year. Its founder, Xu Ma, noted that “we’re not just entering a new market – we’re setting a new standard”. The development, a boutique low-density residential project, will be located on Dubai Islands. It will also feature exclusive membership access to the Tomorrow World Club, providing residents with privileges including wellness programmes, global brand collaborations, and yachting experiences.

With several EPL teams, including Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, and relegated Leicester, promoting the UAE, this week, Damac Properties joined the club – by teaming up with Chelsea as part of its promotion of its new development – ‘Chelsea Residences by Damac’.  Located in Dubai Maritime City, the project comprises 1.4k residential units. The partnership will also show up in the ‘first-ever Chelsea football club branded residences’. Damac Properties will feature on Chelsea FC men’s and women’s shirts for the remainder of the 2024-25 season.

This week saw another boost for Dubai’s global standing position as a hub, as well as a nod to the growing demand for branded residences in the emirate. 1k investors attended the launch of Saba Properties’ Marriott Residences, Jumeirah Lakes Tower. The attendees were shown detailed architectural renderings, elegant interior designs, and a curated showcase of the amenities that indicated what living in a branded residence would be like. The forty-five-storey development comprises five hundred and thirty-four one to three-bedroom units, with a rooftop sanctuary and 19.5k sq ft of retail space. Other amenities, all managed under Marriott’s supervision, include an open-to-sky gym, an infinity pool, dedicated children’s play areas, tranquil yoga studios, treatment rooms, and a twenty-fourth-floor entertainment hub complete with a games room, theatre, and communal lounge.

According to Global Branded Residences, there was a 43% surge in the number of new branded units last year, bringing the total number to 43k, spread over one hundred and thirty-two developments; it is expected that this number will double over the next five years. There are estimates around that point to a 69% premium, per sq ft, for such residences over ‘normal’ units.

At the start of this week’s ATM, Jumeirah’s announced new developments that will include a hotel and two residential projects, in Dubai; this comes after the hotel group had successfully opened Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab earlier in the year. Jumeirah Asora Bay, located on the peninsula of La Mer South, and developed in partnership with Meraas, will feature a one hundred and three-key hotel, suites, and twenty villas and is scheduled to open in 2029. Meraas will add a residential enclave with twenty-nine units, including apartments, (four-to-six-bedroom apartments and one seven-bedroom penthouse), and six ocean villas. A second project, Jumeirah Residences Emirates Towers, will be located in the emirate’s business sector and will comprise seven hundred and fifty-four units, with a range of one to four-bedroom apartments. These additions are part of its strategy to double the size of its portfolio by 2030. In the coming months, the chain will open Jumeirah The Red Sea in Saudi Arabia and Jumeirah Le Richemond Geneva in Switzerland.

Dubai will create a new exhibition and trade event specifically for the real estate industry – but this will be slightly different to existing events in that ‘Rise’ will be a “hub for those in city planning, new ways to build infrastructure and real estate spanning decades”. Having carried out a complete study of the market, with all stakeholders including exhibition industry players, and the fact that DWTC is “maxed out”, it was decided to further expand with Dubai Exhibition Centre (part of Expo City). Part of the plan is to move specific events – Arab Health, Gulfood and Gitex – to the Dubai Exhibition Centre.

Having reviewed the DWTC’s 2024 Economic Impact Assessment Report, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed confirmed that the Dubai World Trade Centre generated an economic output exceeding US$ 6.09 billion in 2024. Of this total, US$ 3.55 billion, (58.3%), was retained as Gross Value Added to the emirate’s GDP, reinforcing the significant value retained within the local economy. Dubai’s Crown Prince also noted DWTC’s growing role as a key driver of the emirate’s economy. The report indicated that it hosted over one hundred major events in 2024 – 32.0% higher than a year earlier – which attracted two million participants – both locally and internationally, with the latter attracting 936.1k, or 47% of the total. It is estimated that these events created 85.5k jobs across the MICE (meetings, incentives, exhibitions, conferences) and allied sectors. Sheikh Hamdan also noted that, “these figures reflect Dubai’s leadership and position as a global capital for business and innovation and consolidate the centre’s position not only as a platform for hosting the most important exhibitions and conferences, but also as a driver of comprehensive development and a key supporter of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33.”

Sectors that saw marked increases include:

business entertainment          US$ 485 million          36%
retail trade                              US$ 719 million          34%
restaurants/F&B                    US$ 608 million          30%
hotel accommodation             US$ 929 million          15%
air travel/local transport        US$ 779 million            8%

This week, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the Chief Executive of Emirates Airline and Group, confirmed that the Dubai government had started awarding contracts, from over a year ago, for Al Maktoum International – which, as most of Dubai knows, will be the world’s largest airport upon completion. The facility will have a final capacity of two hundred and sixty million. It is expected that, within the next decade, the current DXB facility will be completely closed down and operations transferred to the US$ 35 billion new airport. Until then, DXB will continue to serve as the primary hub.

Sheikh Ahmed also said that 2024-25 will be “another record year” for Emirates Group, with its best ever profit, 71% higher on the year, at US$ 5.09 billion. Group revenue jumped 15% to a record of US$ 37.52 billion, as it ended its fiscal year, (31 March), with a new high of US$ 12.83 billion. He also noted that the airline did very well when hedging fuel and commented that the airline is retrofitting 90% of its fleet, adding that “we have two hundred and sixty-one aircraft, we have over three hundred as a new order coming to the team,” and “there will be some new announcements at the Dubai Airshow”.

At this week’s ATM, Emirates received four awards at the Business Traveller Middle East 2025 awards including:

  • ‘Best Airline Worldwide’ for the twelfth consecutive year
  • ‘Best First Class’
  • ‘Best Premium Economy Class’
  • ‘Best Airport Lounge in the Middle East’

Currently with four thousand, six hundred pilots, (spanning one hundred and twelve nationalities), Emirates is planning to employ five hundred and fifty new pilots this year and a further nine hundred and fifty in 2026, as part of its ongoing growth strategy. Positions include Direct Entry Captains, Accelerated Command (fast-tracked First Officers), Type-Rated First Officers, and Non-Type Rated First Officers. The airline has a wide-body fleet of two hundred and sixty-one planes, including Airbus A380s, Boeing 777s, and newly delivered A350s.

Last month, Brand Finance posted that Emirates’ brand value doubled to US$ 8.4 billion in 2024, up 27% over the previous year, as traveller preferences continue to evolve towards more premium experiences. The latest rankings have also placed it amongst the top five most valuable airline brands in the world, the most valuable airline brand outside the US, as well as the most valuable ME Airline brand.

In Q1, 23.4 million passengers went through Dubai International Airport, reinforcing its position as the world’s leading international airport; numbers were 1.5% higher on the year. January, with 8.5 million, saw the highest monthly traffic ever recorded at DXB. India, Saudi Arabia, UK, Pakistan, US and Germany were the six leading destination countries, with totals of 3.0 million, 1.9 million, 1.5 million, 1.0 million, 804k and 738k. By city level, London maintained its leading position with 935k guests, followed by Riyadh, Jeddah, Mumbai and New Delhi – 759k, 627k, 615k and 564k. Double-digit growth was noted to destinations such as Vietnam and Spain. Cargo volume dipped 3.6%, with DXB handling 517k tonnes of cargo. The number of flight numbers rose 1.9% to 111k, with an average 215 per flight and twenty-one million bags were processed – with a 99.8% success rate.

Indian businessman, Abu Sabah, has been convicted, along with thirty-two other individuals, including his son, for operating a criminal network. They were accused of being involved in a large-scale money laundering operation that laundered millions through shell companies and suspicious financial transfers. US$ 41 million, along with electronic devices, documents and phones used in the scheme, have been confiscated.  Several companies involved in the case were fined US$ 14 million. B.S.S., widely known as Abu Sabah, was jailed for five years, fined US$ 136k and ordered to forfeit US$ 41 million in illegal funds. He was known for his high-profile lifestyle and property investments, and in 2016 paid US$ 9 million for car plate ‘5’.

Over the past twelve months, two hundred and sixty Indian companies opened offices in the DMCC – and now account for 16% of the total 26k entities, at around 4k, in the free zone. There is no doubt that one of the main drivers has been the 2022 signing of the bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. At the time the DMCC called on Indian businesses to leverage the momentum brought by the CEPA. Earlier this month, Dubai’s Crown Prince undertook a very successful formal three-day visit to India, indicating that the bilateral relationship is entering a defining new phase. Trade between the two nations exceeded US$ 85 billion in 2024.

IHC, ADQ, and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) have announced plans to launch a new stablecoin backed by dirhams. The stablecoin will be fully regulated by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) and issued by the UAE’s largest bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, (subject to regulatory approval). State-owned ADQ, (Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company) and a family office of the royal office, (International Holding Company), are also involved. The dirham-backed stablecoin is designed to enable secure, verifiable payments in a world where identity, governance, and value flow freely, and is aimed at revolutionising the ease of making payments and doing business, both locally and globally.

Almost nine years ago, the federal government liberalised fuel prices so that they could be aligned with market rates until the onset of the pandemic which saw prices frozen by the Fuel Price Committee, in 2020. The controls were removed in March 2021 to reflect the movement of the market once again. May retail fuel prices have all risen by US$ 0.0027, (AED 1), whilst diesel has declined by US$ 0.03, (AED 11) have declined, compared to April prices. The breakdown of fuel prices for a litre for May is as follows:

Super 98     US$ 0.703 from US$ 0.700       in May        down     1.1% YTD US$ 0.711     

Special 95   US$ 0.673 from US$ 0.670      in May         down     1.1% YTD US$ 0.681        

E-plus 91     US$ 0.651 from US$ 0.649      in May         down     1.7% YTD US$ 0.662

Diesel           US$ 0.687 from US$ 0.717      in  May        down      5.9% YTD US$ 0.730

Late last week, Commercial Bank of Dubai posted its Q1 results, with profit after tax 18.1% higher, on the year, at US$ 226 million, attributable to strong growth in loans and current and savings accounts, driven by robust net interest outcome, supported by lower cost of risk; operating income  came in at US$ 374 million, and with operating expenses up 17.5% to US$ 101 million, operating income was US$ 272 million – 5.3% lower on the year. The net impairment loss was down by 68.3% to US$ 25 million, with corporate tax expenses 18.8% higher at US$ 22 million. The bank’s capital ratios were well in excess of regulatory requirements, with a capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 ratio and Common Equity Tier 1 ratio recorded at 15.31%, 14.18% and 12.28%. Gross loans, of US$ 278 million, rose 3.9% on the quarter.

Mashreq has kicked off 2025 with a strong set of first-quarter results, reporting a net profit before tax of US$ 572 million (US$ 490 million after tax), and operating income rose to US$ 847 million. Operating profit came in at US$ 599 million, while the bank’s cost-to-income ratio remained among the lowest in the industry at 29%. Provisioning stayed low at US$ 28 million. Mashreq’s return on equity was at a healthy 21%, (attributable to double-digit loan growth, a robust capital base, and disciplined cost control), and net margin at 3.3%. Its balance sheet saw the bank’s total assets grow 9.0% to US$ 74.39 billion, with loans/advances and customer deposits increasing by 14% and 10%, on the year.

Tecom posted a 23.4% hike in Q1 net profits to US$ 98 million, as revenue climbed 21.0% to US$ 185 million. Over the quarter, its customer base grew by 6.0% to over 12k, ‘supported by strong demand for commercial, industrial, and land lease assets’. One of Dubai’s biggest commercial real estate landlords, Tecom has benefitted from the increased demand, across the board, for office, warehousing and industrial space. At Dubai Industrial City, more than US$ 95 million of investments came in from F&B businesses in 2024, whilst in Dubai Design District, there will be six additional Grade A buildings, together creating over 500k sq ft of leasable area and ready by H1-2028. Tecom’s lofty plan is to make d3 a ‘destination of choice for creative minds from around the world’.

DFM posted good Q1 results with revenue 25.9% higher at US$ 51 million, split between operating income of US$ 24 million and investment returns/other income of US$ 27 million. With total expenses, excluding tax, 1.7% lower at US$ 14 million, net profit before tax came in 41.1% to the good on US$ 37 million, driven by record trading activity and sustained investor engagement.  Total market capitalisation was US$ 244.41 billion – 1.0% lower on the year, with average daily trades 33.0% higher at 13.4k trades. During the period, it achieved its record Average Daily Trading Value, (US$ 181 million), with a 60.8% surge in total traded value at US$ 11.17 billion. 86% of the 19.4k new investors were foreign nationals, with that sector contributing 53% of total trading value; foreign ownership of the market cap remained flat at 21%.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 28 April, three hundred and twelve points higher, (6.5%), the previous three weeks, gained one hundred and twenty-five points (2.4%), to close the trading week on 5,291 points, by Friday 03 May 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.30 higher the previous three weeks, gained US$ 0.12, closing on US$ 3.65 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.49 US$ 2.03 and US$ 0.37 and closed on US$ 0.73, US$ 5.64 US$ 2.08 and US$ 0.39. On 02 May, trading was at one hundred and thirty-eight million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and twenty-two million dollars, compared to one hundred and thirty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and nineteen million dollars, on 02 May 2025.

The bourse had opened the year on 4,063 points and, having closed on 30 April at 5,307 was 1,244 points (30.6%) higher YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 2.16, and had gained US$ 1.41, to close on 30 April at US$ 3.57. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2025 on US$ 0.67, US$ 4.70, US$ 1.56 and US$ 0.38 and closed April 2025 at US$ 0.73, US$ 5.60, US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.37.

By Friday, 02 May 2025, Brent, US$ 1.02 lower (1.4%) the previous week, shed US$ 5.63 (8.5%) to close on US$ 61.24. Gold, US$ 42 (10.5%) lower the previous week, shed US$ 68 (2.1%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3,231 on 02 May.

Brent started the year on US$ 74.81 and shed US$ 13.75 (18.4%), to close 30 April 2025 on US$ 61.06. Gold started the year trading at US$ 2,624, and by the end of April, the yellow metal had gained US$ 646 (24.6%) and was trading at US$ 3,270.

On Monday, Deliveroo shares surged by 17%, after its US rival DoorDash offered to pay US$ 3.61 billion in a takeover bid. After the market had closed for the weekend, it was reported that, last Friday,  talks had been ongoing since 05 April. The meal delivery platform had then intimated that it was likely the US$ 2.41 per share offer would be recommended, though full terms were yet to be agreed. Before trading started on Monday, Deliveroo decided to suspend its US$ 134 million share buyback programme. With a disastrous IPO in March 2021, debut shares were sold at US$ 5.21-a-piece, with Deliveroo valued at around US$ 10.16 billion, indicating a 64.5% slump, if sold at US$ 3.61 billion. If the deal went through, it would be another blow for the UK economy and the London Stock Exchange which seems to be losing more companies than it is gaining, as the number of tech companies listed in London continues to dwindle.

For the fifth consecutive quarter, Starbucks posted declines in global sales, with Q1 being the latest showing a 0.1% dip, not helped by weakness in the US market, offset to some extent by rising sales in Canada and China. Its chief executive, Brian Niccol, had already taken steps to turn the business around, as it faces the problems of declining consumer spending and rising operating costs. Some steps, such as the introduction of automation, at the expense of less labour, have had limited success. Niccol’s latest solutions are to hire more baristas and slow down automation plans, by pulling back from deploying its Siren Craft System, its suite of technology and equipment that was introduced in 2022 to streamline drink-making. Starbucks is also revamping its coffee shops, menus and the company’s dress code, with baristas wearing dark, single coloured shirts to “allow our iconic green apron to shine and create a sense of familiarity for our customers”. Earlier in the year, he also also reversed rules for its cafes in N America that allowed people to use their facilities even if they had not bought anything. The market was not too impressed with its share value slumping 6.5% on the news.

Q1 was disappointing for McDonald’s reporting its biggest decline in US sales since the height of the pandemic and putting the blame on customers’ concerns over the US economy, with chief executive, Chris Kempczinski, commenting they were “grappling with uncertainty”. It is reported that outlets, that have been open for more than a year, have posted an average 3.6% dip in revenue. Maybe it was more than a coincidence that this came while the US economy had fallen 0.3% – the first quarterly decline since 2022.

Embattled Aston Martin will have an interesting AGM next week, as influential proxy voting adviser ISS will be urging investors to vote against both of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ remuneration votes. ISS is not happy with the proposals that would see marked hikes to potential bonus awards to Adrian Hallmark, the company’s new chief executive. The adviser said, “concerns are raised regarding the increased bonus maximums, which are built upon competitively[1]positioned salary levels and do not appear appropriate given the company’s recent performance”.  On top of that, there are the problems that have arisen from Trump’s tariffs. Over the past twelve months, the company’s shares have halved to US$ 877 million.

In the UK, Nationwide has posted that April house prices fell 0.6%, on the month, at US$ 359.7k, mainly down to changes to stamp duty thresholds kicking in on 01 April; prices are still 3.4% higher on the year. In Rachel Reeves’ October budget, the stamp duty threshold was halved to US$ 166k, (GBP 125k) and for first-time buyers, it was lowered 29.4% to US$ 399k, (GBP 300k). The  soft market will probably nudge higher, with the possibility of rate summer rate cuts and earnings moving higher. It Is expected that annual rises will hover around 3.5% this year, moving higher in 2026.

Recent days have seen cyber attacks on electricity supplies in the Iberian Peninsula and on major UK retailers, including Marks & Spencer, Co-op Group and Harrods, with the former unable to accept online orders for the last week and having major supply chain problems. This could be the start of not only a summer of discontent but further larger and more damaging hacking incidents.

With an emergency economic package, including reducing gasoline prices to US$ 0.07 a litre, and to partially cover electricity bills for three months from July, Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is aiming to alleviate any impact on industries and households from new US import tariffs. He has also extended the number of companies to be eligible for low-interest loans extended by government-backed banks. This package should not impact the budget since funds will be drawn from a reserve fund. At a tariff task force meeting, he said, “I have instructed cabinet members to make the utmost efforts to aid firms and households that have been worried about tariff impact.” The PM is understood to have considered further measures to boost domestic consumption, if so required. Japan is in serious negotiations about the existing tariffs – 25% on cars and trucks and the 24% tariff on all Japanese exports to the US, (subsequently cut to 10% for ninety days).

With its nominal GDP reaching US$ 4.10 trillion, last year, California has become the world’s fourth-largest economy, only behind US, China and Germany in global rankings, but pushing Japan’s GDP of US$ 4.02 trillion into fifth place. The state, with its real estate, finance and technology sectors among the top contributors, accounts for some 14% of the US economy. Last year, the state saw its population grow by 250k, after years of declines, attributable to a rebound in births and gains from international migration. However, the IMF sees India overtaking California next year. As its governor, Gavin Newsom boasted – “California isn’t just keeping pace with the world – we’re setting the pace”.

Q1 saw the US economy shrink 0.3%, due to a drop in government spending, a 1.8% rise in consumer spending, and a 40% surge in imports, as firms raised inventory levels ahead of tariffs; this follows a 2.4% hike in the previous quarter. It is too early to see the impact of Donald Trump’s recent introduction of import taxes, which has caused so much turbulence and uncertainty in global trade. 101 Economics dictate that imports usually reduces growth in a country’s GDP – and if imports were at a higher level, the impact would be greater and be skewed higher in one month; however, it is highly likely that imports will even out in the coming months. Furthermore, business investment surprisingly rose, as did consumer spending – the primary driver of the US economy – albeit at a slower pace than Q1 2024. Over the coming months, the economy will be battered by the likes of uncertainty, tariffs, supply chain problems and tighter financial market conditions.

The US President has eased the impact of new tariffs on the car making industry, allowing companies with US factories to reduce, over the next two years, the amount they pay in import taxes on foreign parts, using a formula tied to how many cars they sell and the price. In addition, companies that have to pay tariffs on cars and parts would not be charged other duties the administration has imposed on steel, aluminium and goods from Canada and Mexico.

The US Labor Department confirmed that April hiring in the country remained robust with employers adding 177k jobs in the month; the market was not expecting such a high figure, with so much uncertainty in the post-tariff era of Donald Trump. The unemployment rate remined flat at 4.2%. Average hourly pay rose 3.8% over the last twelve months. Hiring last month was led by healthcare, warehousing and transportation firms, offset by federal government redundancies. There is no doubt that over recent years, the US economy has been a beacon of resilience, with consumer spending continuing unabated, despite the double whammy of rising prices and high interest rates. However, nobody really knows how Trump’s tariffs will impact the US economy and only when the full consequences work themselves out.

UK food inflation has risen to its highest-level during April, at 2.6%, 0,2% higher on the month and its highest level since May 2023. The British Retail Consortium also warned it could easily go higher, attributable to the retail sector being impacted by rising costs including a whopping US$ 9.39 billion of tax increases this year due to Rachel Reeve’s now infamous October budget. One factor that could keep prices in check is the ongoing supermarket price war. Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks trends and prices, said spending on promotions reached its highest level this year at almost 30% of total sales over the four weeks to 20 April. It estimated that up to 20% of sales, at the leading two retailers, Tesco and Sainsbury’s, were via price cuts, mainly through loyalty cards.

Returning from her trip to the US this weekend, the last thing Rachel Reeves probably wanted to hear was the EY ITEM club intimating that UK economic growth could be “postponed” for two years. The economic forecasting group, which utilises the Treasury’s economic modelling, downgraded expectations for output this year, (0.8% growth, down from 1.0%) and in 2026, (0.9% – 0.6% lower). It reckons that the main drivers would be as a result of weaker sentiment, among both households and businesses, given the surge in uncertainty, and the impact of global growth caused by the imposition of tariffs. Although it estimates that rate cuts may help somewhat, it also warns of a direct hit from the global trade war and the economic problems from persistent high inflation in the economy. This comes on the back of the IMF accusing the Chancellor and her minions of an own goal through the chancellor’s tax increases on business, which came into effect on 01 April; add into the mix, households are grappling a surge in bills, including those for energy, water and council tax, along with sharp increases in the number of firms in “critical” financial distress and going to the wall, then all is not well in Whitehall and the country. It noted that 16% of UK exports are bound for the US and there would be a negative impact because of the 10% levy across the board and 25% on steel and aluminium. EY concluded that the weaker global economic backdrop and spiralling levels of uncertainty would weigh on both families and businesses, as well as the continuing pressures on household budgets, further limiting demand for major purchases.

Ahead of tomorrow’s general election, it seems that current prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has received a hammer blow from of all people, S&P Global. Earlier in the week, the ratings agency commented that election spending promises could jeopardise Australia’s prized AAA sovereign credit rating.  It also noted that the country’s public spending was at “post-war highs” and warned both major parties that the country’s rating was at risk if savings were not found.  It cites concerns that “larger, structural deficits”, coupled with more volatility in the global economy, could threaten Australia’s AAA credit rating – the highest tier. As usual, in most democratic elections, there are always promises of increased public spending and/or tax cuts, and in this one, more so because of the on-going cost of living crisis. Indeed, both parties have promised billions of dollars for housing, healthcare and energy .  .  . if they are elected.  Maybe they have read and learnt from Kier Starmer’s 2024 political manifesto – Empty Promises!

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You Better Get A Move On!

Posted on April 25, 2025 by howesdubai

You Better Get a Move On!                                                                     25 April 2025

As intimated in an earlier blog, Dubai got off to a lightning start in Q1, with transaction recordings totalling above 42.4k, 23% higher compared to Q1 2024, valued at US$ 31.06 billion – an annual 29% surge. Over that period, there was a 65% leap in villa sales, to 10.k, transactions and a 56% hike in value to US$ 14.55 billion. On the other hand, apartment transactions rose 14% to over 32.2k, with their value 12% higher at US$ 16.57 billion. 59% of all transactions were for off-plan sales, with 24.9k deals, up 25% on the year. There has been a recent trend that sees a change in buyer preference, with secondary sales surging to 77%, with off plan dropping by 30%.

With no readily available figures for 2024, the estimate of total housing units as at the end of last year is at 860k, being 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k plus the 47k best guesstimate for last year. (In the four-year period, ending December 2023, the average annual new units were 41k). Property Monitor estimates that over 7.8k residential units were handed over in Q1 and that by the end of this year the number will top 71.3k – and, that being the case, it will be  over 50% more than any other number of annual handovers posted in the past decade; it reckons that in 2026 and 2027, the numbers are expected to be 80.0k and 58.8k, which will be an average annual 70k for the next three years.  In the unlikely annual event of 70k units hitting the market for the next three years, the question is will there be an oversupply? Last year, Dubai’s population grew 5.85% to 3.864 million.  Assuming an annual 6.0% increase, until the end of 2027, the population would have increased by 738k to 4.602 million and the number of residential units to 1.070 million – being 860k, (based on 2023 official figures from the Dubai Statistics Centre – 813k, plus the 47k, the best guesstimate for last year – plus 210k units (2025-2027). Further assumptions are that the ratio between villas/townhouses: villa is 19:81 and that
5.3 persons live in a villa and 4.3 in apartments; this would equate to there being 203k villas, accommodating 1.077 million, and 867k apartments housing 3.728 million – a total of 4.805 million. Per se, this indicates that demand, (4,602 million), is some 200k people, (0.845k villas and 3.61k apartments) lower than supply, (4,805k) and demand should be easily met in the near future. However, add in empty properties, (that could be as high as 10%), Airbnb, second homes, units being upgraded etc, then there is an obvious current inventory shortage. Furthermore, there seems to be a trend that the average number in one residential unit is actually dropping.

Betterhomes posted a 49% rise in transactions and a 36% rise in tenant leads. Rentals for apartments and villas rose for apartments and townhouses, by 14% and 7%, with villa leasing 52% higher on the quarter.. This spike in demand for larger homes aligns with Dubai’s growing family population and evolving lifestyle preferences, as more residents prioritise spacious living environments.

Buyer enquiries across all property types reflected strong market confidence. Overall enquiries rose 14%, year-on-year, and 51%, quarter-on-quarter. Apartments saw a 30% increase in leads compared to Q4 2024 and 12%, year-on-year. Villas maintained high demand, with enquiries up 38%, quarter-on-quarter, and 5%, year-on-year. Townhouses, however, emerged as a standout, with a 64% surge in enquiries, quarter-on-quarter, and a 30% rise year-on-year, highlighting their growing popularity among buyers seeking a balance of space and affordability. Investor interest remains bullish and demand robust, attributable to population growth, (which will reach over four million before the end of the year, with 6% + growth), economic stability, tax advantages, world class amenities and a marked increase in interest for prime and villa properties.

With the aim to make it the fashion hub of the ME and Asia, Azizi Developments has launched ‘Azizi Milan’ on a forty million sq ft of GFA plot, near to SZR. It is estimated that the US$ 20.0 billion residential development will be home to 140k, with 80k apartments, as well as five hundred hotel keys and 2.5 million sq ft of retail. Mirwais Azizi, Chairman of Azizi, noted that

“this new development will become the fashion hub of the Middle East and Asia, where all the brand names and fashion leaders will be present and become an incubator for emerging fashion and local design talent to grow”, and “Azizi Milan is to be the fashion capital of the Middle East with its network of pedestrian-only fashion streets – each dedicated to their own realm of fashion.” Sales started yesterday, 25 April.

Following the massive success of its first project, ‘Lua Residences’, Swank Development has unveiled its highly anticipated residential project “Selora Residences” in Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Meydan. The luxurious development will be an exclusive residential community, comprising thirty standalone villas, between four to six bedrooms; prices start at US$ 2.5 million for the four-bedroom unit and US$ 3.4 million for the five-bedroom one. Construction has yet to start, but completion date is slated for March 2027.

Encompassing an area of seventeen sq km, Dubai Islands has become one of the emirate’s property hotspots. A new Reidin-GCP report indicated that some 7k homes are in construction on the five-island project, with four new launches last month and eight announcements of impending project launches. Now that contracts have been awarded for direct access points between Dubai Islands from Bur Dubai, demand is certain to surge; this will include a 1.43k mt bridge, with four lanes in each direction, with a capacity of 16k vehicles per hour in both directions. (The project also includes a pedestrian and cycling track, connecting both ends of the bridge). The development is currently served by just one entry and exit access point through the Infinity Bridge and Al Khaleej Street. Over the past eighteen months, it is reported that the median sale price of an apartment there has jumped 33% to US$ 654 per sq ft, whilst land prices have surged 125% to US$ 123 per sq ft.

At last week’s International Property Show 2025, the Dubai Land Department signed eleven agreements. Its CEO of the Real Estate Registration Sector, Majid Al Marri, signed six cooperation agreements with the following entities – Bidbayt, (for organising real estate auctions), Auctions, Shory, (for insurance brokerage), Eqarcom Solutions Information Technology, HRE Real Estate Development and the Miami Association of Realtors. He commented that “these agreements reflect DLD’s vision of establishing a fully integrated real estate ecosystem rooted in innovation and driven by strategic partnerships that enhance the sector’s sustainability and global competitiveness.” The CEO of the Real Estate Development Sector, Majida Ali Rashed, signed five additional agreements with real estate registration trustees – Gulf Vision, Bin Shabib, Al Yalayis GT Center, Barnes Middle East and Africa Holding Ltd., and the Innovation Experts Real Estate Institute for real estate training.

Listed as one of the top ten developers in Dubai, Danube Properties unveiled its latest residential project Sparklz by Danube, a three hundred and fifty-eight-unit tower rising up in Al Furjan. It has already delivered three projects, ahead of schedule in H2 2024, and has launched thirty-four projects, successfully delivered eighteen, with another sixteen currently in various stages. 

Located in the heart of Majan Dubailand, Estrella by Nexus, has been launched as a boutique mid-rise development. Nexus Developer, established in 2020, has been known, so far, for its premium villas and townhouses. All the units in Estrella encompass having Italian marble finishes, German-engineered kitchen appliances, US-grade sanitary fittings and smart home automation It also incorporates elevated amenities like a rooftop pool, a fully equipped gym, centrally air-conditioned children’s play areas, and outdoor hangout space

Ahead of next week’s thirty-second edition of the Arabian Travel Market, (28 April to 01 May), Issam Kazim, CEO of the Dubai Corporation for Tourism and Commerce Marketing, said that Dubai tourism had seen a 3% annual growth in Q1. Last year, there was a 9% growth in terms of visitations, along with 18.72 million overnight visitors. He added that “Dubai is proud to continue its long-term strategic collaboration with the internationally renowned Arabian Travel Market (ATM) as its host destination, highlighting our commitment to advancing Dubai’s position as one of the leading global cities for business and leisure, a goal central to the Dubai Economic Agenda, D33”. This year, there will be one hundred and twenty-five stakeholders and over three hundred buyers from thirty-nine countries. 17% of the two thousand, eight hundred exhibiting countries were regional, whilst the 83% balance were from the rest of the world; there has been a 12% annual increase in exhibitor participation at this year’s event, making it the largest edition to date, now spanning fourteen halls.

Dubai was the location selected by PayPal to open its first ever regional hub in the ME. It is one of the biggest global digital commerce platforms in the world with a US$ 61.0 billion market cap; the new hub will be the base for MEA, with eighty countries. Earlier on Wednesday, Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum met with Suzan Kereere, the firm’s President, Global Markets. Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler affirmed Dubai’s commitment to supporting its continued growth and success in the region.

 The Mohammed bin Rashid Establishment for Small and Medium Enterprises Development posted impressive 2024 results including a 17.8% rise in the number of launches of new Emirati businesses to 3.46k, bringing the total number of supported SMEs to 19,904 since Dubai SME’s foundation in 2002.  Last year, there was more than an annual doubling of advisory services were offered to 3.08k entrepreneurs, bringing the total number of beneficiaries, over the past  twenty-two years, to 53.21k. These results are in tandem with the ambitious goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to double the size of the city’s economy by 2033 and further consolidate its position as a leading global destination for business and leisure.

According to the latest World Trade Organisation report, 2024 UAE foreign trade surged 49.4% to US$ 1.424 trillion, indicating its growing position as the leading trade hub in the MEA since 2014 and enhancing its position in the top twenty global trade centres for goods and services. There was a 2.9% rise in merchandise trade and 6.8% in services trade last year. HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid commented that, “in a world of economic and trade challenges, the UAE has prioritised openness, connectivity, and the free flow of trade, capital, and people, establishing itself as a vital link between East and West and a global economic centre.” He added that “the UAE exported goods worth US$ 599.45 billion in 2024, marking a 6.0% growth over the previous year” and recorded 41% of the total commodity exports in the region. Over the year, the country “exported services worth US$ 177.11 billion in 2024, of which US$ 52.041 billion were digital services, representing 30% of total service exports”. On a global scale, the UAE ranked eleventh in merchandise exports, (US$ 604.90 billion), and thirteenth in service exports, (US$ 176.18 billion, of which US$ 52.04 billion were in digital services), with a trade surplus of US$ 134.14 billion. The UAE achieved merchandise exports of US$ 604.90 billion and services exports of US$ 176.18 billion, including US$ 52.04 billion in digital services.

On the sidelines of Dubai AI week, and in the presence of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, du, in partnership with Microsoft, as its main tenant, is to launch a US$ 545 million hyperscale data centre. The facility willbe built in phases to meet growing demand for cloud services and AI capabilities. Dubai’s Crown Prince noted that “data is the wealth of the future” and highlighted Dubai’s commitment to supporting companies that use technology to benefit society, as well asreinforcing Dubai’s leadership in technology and innovation. Last year, the Dubai Universal Blueprint for Artificial Intelligence was launched, with a triple aim of  growing local AI talent, integrating AI into government services and expanding the city’s data infrastructure.

Forbes has forecast that the country’s fintech market is expected to have a 12.56% compound annual growth rate and reach US$ 3.56 billion in 2025, and US$ 6.43 billion by 2030. Its report outlined the country’s competitive advantages, including its low business startup costs, vis a vis European markets, and the availability of free zones, such as Dubai International Financial Centre and Abu Dhabi Global Market, which help ensure the sustainable delivery of financial services at minimal cost. It also noted that fintech companies in the UAE are benefitting from a supportive and progressive regulatory environment, initiated by government policies and initiatives. Last year, the UAE led the region by raising US$ 1.1 billion across two hundred and seven startups, ahead of Saudi Arabia’s one hundred and eighty-six deals, valued at US$ 700 million.

Pursuant to Article (14) of the Federal Decree Law No. (20) of 2018 on Anti-money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organisations, the Central Bank of the UAE has imposed a financial sanction on an unnamed bank operating in the country for failing to comply with policies and procedures. This was imposed after the findings of an examination conducted by the CBUAE. The central bank is keen to ensure that all banks and their staff, abide by UAE laws, regulations and standards adopted by the CBUAE to safeguard the transparency and integrity of the banking sector and the UAE financial system.

A partnership, between Dubai Taxi Company and Al-Futtaim Electric Mobility, will see an additional two hundred BYD SEAL sedans added to its electric taxi fleet. (In March 2023, BYD announced that it had reached a cooperation with Al-Futtaim, to facilitate the development of green travel in the country). This model is capable of offering a range of six hundred km per charge. 86% of DTC’s fleet is already environment-friendly and is not only ahead of the RTA’s 2027 target of 100% but this latest move will support the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 aspirations and help the DTC transition towards a fully electric fleet by 2040.

A study by Emirates NBD Research posted that Dubai’s March figures showed that its headline CPI inflation dipped by an annual 0.4%, and monthly 0.1%, to 2.8% – helped by softer transport and food costs; this was the lowest annual deflation since October 2024, and the first monthly deflation since July 2024. Inflation over the first quarter averaged 3.0% on the year. With a low oil price, below trend averages, along with a continuation of Brent trading below the US$ 70 level will see the inflation rate dipping in the coming months, which will have a knock-on effect on the likes of pump prices and transport-related components of the ‘inflation basket’. Indeed, in April, retail petrol prices were 18.4% lower than in April 2024. The second integral item in the ‘basket’ is food, 0.3% lower on the year, compared to 0.7% in March 2024, with clothing/footwear trailing 2.7% on the year. The other side of the coin, and the main driver in keeping inflation high, is housing/utilities that account for 40.7% of the basket, and still maintaining its position of having the fastest pricing growth. Last year, it was estimated that rentals for villas/townhouses and apartments rose by 20% and 8%.

Parkin, which operates under a forty-nine-year licence agreement with the RTA, has announced new tariffs at selected locations in the emirate. The largest paid public parking provider, managing over 207k spaces, has posted new tariffs at selected locations – Al Qusais First, Al Karama, Madinat Dubai Al Melaheya and Al Kifaf. The new charges, named W and WP, include a rate of US$ 1.63, (AED 6), per hour, during peak hours.

Emirates Islamic Bank’s Q1 surpassed the AED 1 billion milestone – for the first time – growing 24%, compared to the same period in 2024, helped by the on-going positive business sentiment in the UAE, which drove both funded and non-funded income higher. Total income rose 8% to US$ 395 million, with operating profit up by 5%, while the net profit margin stands at 3.85%. Increases were noted across the board for total assets, customer financing and customer deposits – by 11% to US$ 33.31 billion, by 7% to US$ 20.44 billion, and by 8% to US$ 22.62 billion.

Q1 was another strong period for Emirates NBD, with net profit, before tax, 56% higher at US$ 2.13 billion attributable to a robust lending book, with an improvement in deposit mix and new products resulting in a 11% annual increase in income. Profit also increased by 56%, on the quarter, to US$ 1.69 billion, driven by higher income, lower costs and an impairment credit. Balance sheet items also headed north with deposits up 5% (attributable to a record US$ 7.36 billion increase in low-cost Current and Savings Account balances), loans growing US$ 4.90 billion – with over 50% of the increase sourced from the bank’s growing international network. One highlight was that the bank, for the first time, indicated that its balance sheet surpassed the AED1 trillion, (US$ 272.48), milestone, boosted by impressive loan and deposit growth.

Dubai Islamic Bank posted its Q1 results, with all figures moving higher.  A 14% hike in pre-tax profit, to US$ 572 million, was mainly attributable to quality earning assets growth, as its balance sheet grew by 3%. Operating revenue and net profit after tax, climbed by 5% to US$ 859 million and by 8% to US$ 490 million. From the balance sheet, increases on the year, were noted with net financing and Sukuk – up 4% to US$ 83.65 billion – net financing growth by nearly 5%, (to US$ 60.76 billion), total assets, 3% higher at US$ 96.73, with customer deposits increasing 7% to US$ 72.21 billion.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 21 April, two hundred and forty-six points higher, (5.1%), the previous fortnight, gained sixty-six points (1.3%), to close the trading week on 5,166 points, by Friday 25 April 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.08 higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 0.22 closing on US$ 3.53 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.71, US$ 5.30 US$ 2.04 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.72, US$ 5.49 US$ 2.03 and US$ 0.37. On 25 April, trading was at one hundred and thirty-two million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and nineteen million dollars, compared to one hundred and fifty-three million shares, with a value of US$ seventy-five million dollars, on 18 April.

By Friday, 25 April 2025, Brent, US$ 3.26 higher (5.0%) the previous week, shed US$ 1.02 (1.4%) to close on US$ 66.87. Gold, US$ 317 (10.5%) higher the previous fortnight, shed US$ 42 (1.3%) to end the week’s trading at a record US$ 3,299 on 25 April.

Two US mega IT companies received a slap on the wrist by the European regulator, with Apple being fined US$ 500 million and Meta a further US$ 200 million. This, the first such case for the EU’s company watchdog, represents the first sanctions under the Digital Markets Act, which was aimed at curbing the power of big tech companies by allowing smaller rivals into their markets. It is thought that Apple will appeal the case, whilst Meta complained that the decision “is attempting to handicap successful American businesses, while allowing Chinese and European companies to operate under different standards.” Watch this space, because the US President has threatened tariffs against countries that penalise US companies.

Alleging Uber engaged in deceptive billing and cancellation practices, the US Federal Trade Commission has filed a lawsuit against the ride hailing and delivery company. The accusation is that of charging customers for its Uber One subscription service, without getting their consent and making it hard for users to cancel; the service, costing US$ 96, and first introduced in 2021, promises users perks including no-fee delivery and discounts on some rides and orders. The FTC complained that Uber had made suspending subscriptions “extremely difficult” for consumers, who can be subjected to navigating as many as twenty-three screens and taking up to thirty-two actions if they try to cancel.

With commercial plane prices having risen since the pandemic, they are set to climb again, driven by the introduction of trade tariffs; it is estimated that prices have increased by around 30% since 2018. Both Boeing and Airbus have been hit by higher expenses for primary materials such as titanium, components and energy, as well as overall labour cost pressures – only last year, Boeing had to agree to a 38% wage hike, for its Seattle-based machinists to settle a labour dispute, and months earlier, Spirit AeroSystems, a major supplier to both Boeing and Airbus, reached an agreement with similar wage increases. Aviation inflation has undoubtedly risen in recent years with estimates ranging up to 40% – and that was before the Trump 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium.

What is interesting is that Boeing has not updated its price listing since 2023, whilst Airbus has argued that it gave up on its price listing because they “were not closely correlated to the final price, which was based on each specific contract in terms of plane configuration and detail”. Insiders reckon that 50% discounts on these prices are not unusual. Another fact is that both manufacturers have a major backlog of plane orders, (that will take more than a decade to clear). However, that strong demand – in tandem with limited supply – would normally see prices head north but this has not manifested itself to the degree that would be expected. Using details from a recent purchase, of seventy-seven aircraft, by Japan’s ANA, the catalogue prices given to the carrier indicated that a Boeing 787 Dreamliner and a 737 MAX cost US$ 386 million and US$ 159 million – 32.2% and 30.8% higher than their price in 2023; an Airbus A312neo cost about US$ 148 – US$ 14.3 million, (11.3%) higher on its 2018 catalogue price.

This week the two Gallagher brothers were seen together for the first time in sixteen years, ahead of their much-awaited tour. When tickets went on sale last August, it was estimated that fourteen million people joined the rush for 1.4 million tickets for only seventeen shows, with a further twenty-four shows, mainly overseas, added later. The Oasis Live Reunion 25 tour kicks off at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on 04 July. Lloyds Banking Group estimates that Oasis fans lost almost US$ 3 million to various scams for its UK reunion tickets. It is estimated that at least 5k victims have been scammed, with the biggest loss at U$ 2.3k. The warning from the magazine ‘Which?’ is it is safest to assume any Oasis tickets advertised on social media are fake.  

China’s Q1 industrial production, the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, grew strongly by an annual 6.5%, with its contribution to the national GDP reaching 36.3%. Industrial private investment showed double digit growth, driven by rising corporate expectations, improved efficiency and increasing number of industrial enterprises above designated size. Meanwhile, strong growth was also seen in the equipment manufacturing industry, with electronics, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment sectors all driving growth.

In Q1, China’s public budget spending rose 4.2%, year-on-year, to US$ 997.4 billion, mainly attributable to an enhanced spending equipment manufacturing industry, with the electronics, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment sectors playing a prominent role in driving growth. Notable growth was observed in spending on education, social security and employment, as well as energy-saving initiatives and environmental protection during the period. Data showed that China’s public budget revenue decreased by 1.1%, on the year in Q1. Despite the decline, the country’s stamp tax revenue saw a substantial increase of 21.1% year-on-year, reaching US$ 14.73 billion. Revenue from stock trading stamp taxes surged by 60.6% to US$ 5.63 billion, reflecting heightened enthusiasm in Chinese stock trading during the period.

The US and China account for 43% of the global economy and any disruption will have a knock-on impact worldwide. Donald Trump has introduced a number of tariffs on Chinese imports of up to 145%, with Xi Ping retaliating with 125% taxes on US imports; over recent weeks, the trade war has escalated to dangerous levels. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, commented that there is an opportunity for a “big deal” between the two largest global economies and that it would be an “incredible opportunity” to strike an agreement, if China was “serious” on making its economy less dependent on manufacturing exports. He added that “China needs to change. The country knows it needs to change. Everyone knows it needs to change. And we want to help it change because we need rebalancing too”. Even the US president has changed his rhetoric, now expressing his optimism about improving trade relations and that tariffs would “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.

There is no doubt that other Trump-made factors, leading to market turbulence and uncertainty, could play a major role whether the RBA cuts rates in May, whilst the latest employment figures, showing weak growth over recent months, could make their decision, to move on rates, easier.  It would be no surprise to see a bigger rate cut in May – possibly at 0.40% – and another 0.25% reduction before the end of the Australian fiscal year in June.

March labour figures saw Australia’s unemployment rate nudge 0.1% higher to 4.1%, as 32k found employment, (after February posted a 57k decline), whilst the pool of unemployed people increased by 3k. In comparative 2024 data, the labour market regularly grew by 100k on the quarter but in Q1 2025, the figure was a miserly 6.5k. What has happened is that the participation rates in Q1 were a record-high 67.2%, 66.7% and 66.8% in March.  If the January rate had remained flat into March, Australia’s unemployment rate would have jumped to 4.7%. Despite the growth in employment, it is reported that for second month in a row, March hours worked decreased by 0.3%; bad weather in the month, including ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and other major weather events in New South Wales and Queensland, were seen as main drivers.  It seems that the country’s job market continues to soften, with far fewer jobs being added, compared to a year ago.

Records were broken after the OECD reported that Q4 2024 employment in the EU reached its highest level on record, at 70.9%, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since 2000. Eight member states of the twenty-four-nation bloc also posted all-time high employment rates which ranged from 62.2% in Italy, to 82.3% in the Netherlands. Of the continent’s five largest economies, Germany, UK, France, Spain and Italy, employment rates were at 77.6%, 75.0%, 68.9%, (slightly below the averages for both the EU and the OECD), 66.3% and 62.2%; these final two countries joined Greece and Türkiye as the four bottom-performing countries. The top two countries listed above, Germany and the UK, with unemployment rates of, 3.5% and 4.4%, were the best performing. Of the five largest economies, these two were the standout leaders. Unemployment ranged from 2.6% in Poland to 10.4% in Spain, followed by Finland (9.2%) and Sweden (8.9%) as the three countries with the highest unemployment rates, which had declined to 5.7% – its lowest level in twenty-five years.

April’s purchasing managers’ index, slumping 2.3, from 51.5, (reflecting expansion), to 48.2, (into contraction territory), indicates that the UK’s services and manufacturing sector is struggling to keep “their heads above water”, not helped by the now infamous October budget that has added US$ 33.25 billion of extra employment costs. To exacerbate the problem, Donald Trump has stepped in with his tariffs that could deal a hammer blow to UK exports, at a time when export orders fell at the fastest pace since mid-2020, just as when the pandemic had taken hold. The figures indicate that the UK economy is declining by 0.3% every quarter. Business optimism also slid to a thirty-month low.

This week, a senior Nissan boss told a group of MPs that the UK is “not a competitive place to be building cars”, adding that its Sunderland factory “pays more for its electricity than any other Nissan plant in the world”. He added, “it is energy costs – it is the cost of everything involved in the cost of labour, [and] training. It is the supplier base, or lack of – all sorts of different issues. Ultimately, the UK is not a competitive place to be building cars today.” Maybe the Chancellor should spend more time in her home country, solving the domestic economic problems, some of which have been of her own making.

At the end of the UK fiscal year, 31 March, the UK government borrowed US$ 20.70 billion. This was more than forecast, highlighting contributions from inflation-related costs, including pay awards, and by US$ 21.79 billion of borrowing in March – the third-highest March borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. The Office for National Statistics reported that borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – came in at US$ 201.83 billion, noting that this represented 5.3% of GDP – 0.5% more than a year earlier. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner noted that by 31 March 2025, public service debt remained close to the annual value of the output of the economy, (95.8% of GDP), at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

In its latest forecasting, the IMF has noted that the UK economy will be among the hardest hit by the global trade war, as it slashed the country’s growth, and as inflation is set to climb, it slashed its UK growth forecast by a third to 1.1% this year, down 0.5% from its January prediction, crawling 0.3% higher to 1.4% in 2025. The IMF also cited the rise in government borrowing costs as another cause of the UK’s poor performance which has been partly due to growing unease among investors over the fate of the US economy. Because of her self-imposed fiscal rules, the Chancellor has to raise taxes and/or cut public spending to meet them – another cause of weak economic growth. Furthermore, the IMF pointed to other problems in the domestic economy mainly “weaker private consumption amid higher inflation as a result of regulated prices and energy costs”. The IMF also warned that the UK is heading to one of the largest upticks in inflation, rising 0.7% to 3.1% next year, because of utility bill increases that took effect earlier in the month. This will also concern the BoE with what to do with interest rates, in an environment of weak growth and higher inflation, and their long standing 2.0% target. However, it must be remembered that the IMF is not known for its accurate forecasting.

Ever since the now infamous October budget, many business groups and owners have complained that Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise the minimum wage and increase the employers’ national insurance contribution by 1.2% to 15.0%, have impacted badly on both employment and investment. To exacerbate the problem, latest figures have seen inflation nudging higher towards 3.0%, along with rising energy, water and council fees and now the impact of the US trade war. The GfK consumer confidence barometer fell four points over the month to minus 23 – its lowest level since November 2023 – and down from minus 19 in the previous month. Analysts had expected a reading of minus 21. Furthermore, the latest S&P PMI posted that exports had fallen at their fastest pace since early 2020. Even the IMF has come out and said many of the UK’s economic problems are homegrown, adding that higher inflation because of rising energy bills etc was causing more damage to the UK economy than tariffs. The world body also warned that rising government borrowing costs were weighing on growth and that because of these problems investors had become wary in ploughing money into the UK because of the double whammy – its dismal growth and inflation outlook. A senior Nissan boss has warned that the UK is “not a competitive place to be building cars”. Nissan’s Alan Johnson told MPs that the Sunderland factory “pays more for its electricity than any other Nissan plant in the world”. He added, “It is energy costs – it is the cost of everything involved in the cost of labour, [and] training. It is the supplier base, or lack of – all sorts of different issues. Ultimately, the UK is not a competitive place to be building cars today.” The UK electorate need more than words from the Labour government who to date have scored a few own goals It is about time that the Starmer administration were told – You Better Get A Move On!

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