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Fast becoming known as an extreme sports location, there are reports that the emirate will soon see a 325 mt base-jump tower. At its lower levels, the building will house an activity plaza, catering for family actions. The mid-levels will be for the more adventurous with external abseiling and climbing opportunities, along with climbing walls, free fall facilities, base jumping and assisted high diving. The top level will see the opportunity for climbers to experience replicating various ice climbs, including Everest.

After acquiring land, overlooking the Dubai Canal, only last month, Damac have acted quickly, by announcing a limited release of hotel rooms in its Aykon City project; initial room pricing is in the region of US$ 272k. The 4 million sq ft development will comprise six towers, including the 80-storey Aykon Hotel and Residences – with the top ten floors housing the 280-key hotel.

Wasl Properties has completed its 170k sq ft Karama wasl hub project comprising 312 apartments, 70 retail outlets and 32 eating establishments. Over the past 7 years, the developer has completed 12 projects, with 3.6k residential units, in Karama and Muhaisnah.

With 13 Dubai properties, covering 2.6k keys, hotel group Carlson Rezidor is due to open its first brand Radisson RED in Dubai Silicon Oasis. The 171-key hotel will open in Q2 2018.

It seems that property prices have begun to stabilise and are showing signs of a long-awaited recovery. The latest ValuStrat report indicates that prices in the 8 months to February 2016 hardly moved, with upward movements noted in the middle-end segment locations such as IMPZ, Motor City and The Greens. Compared to its base position of 100 in January 2014, the ValuStrat Price Index stood at 98 last month.

According to Core Savills’ latest Dubai Office Market report, the emirate’s office supply runs at 8.4 million sq mt, of which the prime areas – DIC, DIFC, DMC, Downtown and SZR – account for 28% of the total. The bulk of the portfolio – 51% – is in the secondary sector comprising Bur Dubai, Business Bay, Deira, DHC, JLT and Tecom. Supply growth in these two sectors was estimated at 5% last year, which will increase by 7% in 2016, with much of the activity found in Business Bay, as 318k sq mt of office space was added last year.

More than 27k visitors attended this week’s Taste of Dubai festival – a record number for the 3-day event.

In order to finance on-going infrastructure projects, Meydan Group has signed a US$ 477 million package with Commercial Bank International and Qatar National Bank. It is also reported that state-backed Meraas Holding LLC has arranged a 10-year US$ 381 million loan, which equates to about 50% of the total value of its Marsa Al Seef project on the Creek.

Limitless LLC’s attempt, at a second restructure of its US$ 1.2 billion debt, has reached an impasse. Needing all of its creditors to agree to the new terms, it seems that 98% have but Stonehill Capital, with US$ 15 million outstanding, has not. The company is expected to source funds from land sales – US$ 517 million has already been raised from selling half of its land bank in Saudi and the balance from receipts from similar sales in Jebel Ali.

Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group has cancelled a US$ 354 million tender to repurchase part of a 2017 6% bond issue, as the pricing offered by security holders was higher than at what the company was prepared to settle.

Big Brands, the Dubai luxury goods retailer, is planning to invest US$ 27 million, to add a further 40 outlets in the country. Currently, the company has 10 shops employing 130 staff and, with the announced addition, will require a further 500 on its payroll.

Parking at 23k of the 130k total meters in Dubai has become more expensive, with hourly parking rates doubling to US$ 1.09 and 4-hour rates up 45% to US$ 4.36. Furthermore, the usage of meters will run for 14 hours (8am – 10pm), rather than the current 10 hours.

Dubai International Airport had its best ever month in January with passenger numbers topping 7.3 million – 6.3% higher than a year earlier. If this upward trend continues, the airport could reach 85 million passengers by year end. With aircraft movements up 3.7%, cargo traffic increased by 8.2% to 201k tonnes – and this despite the new Al Maktoum airport taking on more freight.

Following the NYE fire at The Address hotel, and more stringent building codes, Alubond USA has started manufacturing fire-resistant cladding. According to the Sharjah-based supplier, there are at least 1k buildings in the country, where the panels used are made of aluminium filled with highly flammable low-density polythene. Such structures are high risk, with the possibility of the rapid spreading of flames, as seen in the Downtown incident.

The lure of Dubai attracted 22k new SMEs last year – an 18.0% hike on 2014. The emirate has many advantages for such business units but one nagging problem is the banks. It seems to be very difficult in today’s tough environment for SMEs to obtain facilities and when they can, some financial institutions are charging rates upwards of 20% – a possible death knell for many start-ups, as well as a potential loss for Dubai’s economy.

Dubai Investments, 11.5% owned by the Investment Corp of Dubai, has announced a 12% cash dividend – the same as last year, although then it also issued a 6% bonus issue of shares.

As transportation costs continue to decline, down 6.6% year on year, it was no surprise to see Dubai’s February inflation rate drop again from January’s 1.91% to 1.43%. This time last year, the rate was over 4%.

Dubai-listed Amanat Holdings reported a US$ 14 million profit for its first 14 months of operation ending 31 December 2015.The healthcare and education company made two major investments during the year – US$ 53 million for a 35% shareholding in Saudi’s Sukoon International and US$ 68 million for a 4% stake in Al Noor Hospitals.

There were encouraging numbers from DP World with 2015 revenue and profit both up – by 16.4% to US$ 3.97 billion and 30.8% to US$ 883 million respectively. Consequently, the port operator increased its dividend payout by 12.8% to US$ 0.30.

The bourse continued its bullish run, opening Sunday at 3355 and rose 30 points to 3385 by Thursday (17 March 2016). Bellwether stocks, Emaar Properties and Arabtec, had mixed fortunes – the former up by US$ 0.05 to US$ 1.71, with the latter down US$ 0.03 to US$ 0.44. Trading volumes on Thursday were well down on last week at 410 million shares, valued at US$ 257 million, changing hands, (cf 795 million shares for US$ 141 million, the previous Thursday).

Brent crude again confounded the doomsayers by jumping a further 2.5% (US$ 2.98) to US$ 41.50, whilst gold was down US$ 8 to US$ 1,265, by Thursday (17 March) close.

After two failed attempts over the past decade, there has finally been a US$ 30.4 billion merger agreement between Europe’s two major stock exchanges – LSE and Deutsche Boerse. The new group arrangement, which will be 54% German owned, is to be finalised by the end of the year, with headquarters in both London and Frankfurt.

Vijay Mallya is presently living in London but has tweeted that he has not absconded his home country, despite creditors appealing to the Indian Supreme Court for over US$ 1.4 billion in unpaid accounts. The Indian MP – and also a stakeholder in F1 team Force India – sold a major share in his family’s drinks company, United Spirits, to Diageo last year and was due to receive a US$ 75 million pay-out, after being ousted from the company last month.

Following a plethora of legal actions in the US, 278 global investors have joined forces to bring a US$ 3.7 million suit against Volkswagen AG in Germany, for their failure to publish timely information about the emissions scandal.

Canadian pharmaceutical company, Valeant, saw its shares fall 51% this week, as it missed its revenue forecast and recorded a Q4 loss of US$ 337 million. Last month, it announced a delay in its annual report so as to consider internal accounting practices and confirmed that it would resubmit financial statements for the past two years. After several recent acquisitions, the company is carrying US$ 30 billion of debt on its balance sheet.

Having sold most of its North American business to asset management firm company Cerberus last year, the cosmetics company Avon is planning to move its head office from New York to London. This was part of the strategy to improve the 130-year old company’s sales that would also see its payroll number cut by 8.8% to 25.8k.

Far from being the fait accompli it seemed earlier in the year, Marriott International Inc’s offer – valued at US$ 65 per share – for Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc has apparently been gazumped. It seems that a Chinese consortium, including Anbang Insurance Group, is prepared to offer cash equating to US$ 76 per share; this values Starwood, which includes St Regis, W and Westin, at US$ 12.9 billion.

Anbang has also bought Strategic Hotels Resorts (which has 16 luxury resorts and hotels in the US) from Blackstone for a reported US$ 6.5 billion. The US private equity firm only acquired the hotel group in December 2015, for a reported US$ 3.9 billion (or about US$ 6 billion including debt).

Hackers, suspected to be Chinese, have had a field day in Bangladesh, resulting in the central bank’s governor resigning this week. They have managed to steal US$ 101 million, 80% of which found its way to four private accounts at a branch of the Rizal Commercial Banking Corp in Manila, with the balance transferred to Sri Lanka.

An official audit has found that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has defrauded the government of US$ 16 billion in a suspected fraud.

There were two interesting regional stories this week. To reduce its budget deficit, slated to be US$ 40.7 billion (50% higher than the previous year), the Kuwait government has brought in a 10% corporate tax on profits; its introduction date is unknown. The cabinet is also considering cutting subsidies on food, fuel and utilities, as well as privatising some government assets, in a bid to increase its revenue stream.

Meanwhile, the Saudi government has reportedly ordered all ministries to cut their contracts’ spending by 5%, with immediate effect. This move will not be well received in most sectors that are being hit by weakening cash flows and rising costs – and it will lead to an inevitable fall in the Kingdom’s economic growth.

The Bank of Japan has refrained from introducing any further economic stimulus, as it waits for any signs of improvement from its January introduction of negative interest rates. This inactivity may point to the fact that the bank has already fired its “big bazooka” – with its massive QE strategy – and this has failed to stimulate the flagging economy.

On Monday, Egyptian authorities surprised the market with a 13.5% devaluation which saw the pound fall from 8.95 to 7.83 to the US$. In the short run, this will help both exports and tourism but the country’s prime problem is the lack of foreign reserves, which have halved over the past five years to US$ 16 billion. This is despite the fact that GCC countries have pumped in more than US$ 20 billion over that period.

As expected, the Fed kept rates on hold and, as a result, the S&P 500 has jumped nearly 12%, since hitting a new low on 11 February. Chairman Janet Yellen did indicate that there could be just two rate hikes this year, mindful of the drag factor emanating from sluggish global growth and its negative impact on the US economy. (A day later, the BoE also confirmed that rates would hold steady).

This week’s UK budget had one major surprise – a tax on sugary drinks that will raise US$ 750 million ostensibly to fight child obesity. Other key points in George Osborne’s last budget before the Brexit referendum, saw cuts in CGT, excluding residential property, an increase in personal allowance and raising of higher rate threshold and a US$ 1 billion upgrade for flood defences. Strangely, two education–related issues were included – compulsory maths lessons up to the age of 18 and all schools to become academies.

Not known for its success rate, the UK’s Serious Fraud Squad has closed the books on its forex investigation into banks’ manipulation due to “insufficient evidence”. Last May, five international banks, including Barclays and RBS, were fined US$ 5.3 billion by US authorities for rigging forex rates, having settled with UK and US regulators for more than US$ 3.2 billion in November 2014. (As a matter of interest, a Sky News report indicates that the government, which injected US$ 65.8 billion into the troubled RBS in 2008, may only recoup US$ 34.1 billion were it to dispose of its 73% stake).

Another example of the cosy relationship between government and big business reared its ugly head again – this time involving Lord Maude and Lord Deighton. After stepping down from his role as Trade Minister this week, the former will set up a consultancy to help foreign governments, with cutting their procurement budgets. The latter, another treasury minister, has just been reportedly appointed chairman of Heathrow – at a time when the government is deciding whether to approve a third runway. A new twist on We Are Family!

On Tuesday, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the ambitious Dubai Wholesale City, located close to the new Al Maktoum International Airport. The emirate’s ruler wants to tap into the burgeoning global wholesale trade sector, said to be worth US$ 4.3 trillion. The Dubai Holding project, covering 550 million sq ft and costing up to US$ 8.2 billion, will become the largest such hub in the world.

The first phase of Dubai Properties Group’s new affordable Serena property project, Bella Casa, was sold out within hours on Saturday. The total project, encompassing 8.2 million sq ft, will be built in five phases.

Mawarid Finance and AccorHotels have signed a management agreement that will see a 200-key Ibis Styles Al Jaddaf hotel opening in 2018. The hospitality giant already operates two other properties under this brand – in Jumeirah and Dragon Mart.

Last year, many banks reported larger provisions and impairment costs pertaining to bad debts and, indeed in October 2014, Standard Chartered unilaterally closed many local SME accounts. Now as the effect of low oil prices become more apparent, many banks have started to cut off credit lines. As SMEs account for over 60% of the country’s GDP (and only 3.8% of banks’ loans), this will have a negative impact on the local economy – if finance becomes unavailable or too expensive with some banks charging 20% + interest. With estimates of losses of US$ 1.4 billion last year from people leaving the country, the banks have a fine balancing act but they cannot just stop lending to SMEs.

A significant move in the telecoms sectors will see Etisalat and du sharing costs of installing landlines in all new developments, starting with Dubai Sustainable City. It will be a win win situation for both stakeholders – consumers will then have the option to choose either of the services and Etisalat and du will see their capital costs slashed by up to 50%. (Du posted a 10.1% fall in Q4 profits, as its royalty fee jumped 30.1%, with its annual payments rising 20.6% to US$ 523 million).

With the ME e-commerce market forecast to reach US$ 20 billion, lead player, Souq.com, is confident of increasing its revenue by up to 90%. This week, the company obtained US$ 272 million financing, from a range of international investors, to expand its operations – this was the biggest e-commerce fundraising ever in the ME.

This month saw fuel prices at their lowest level since subsidies were cut last July. Special 95 will sell for US$ 0.37 per litre – down 7.4% from February.

A new survey by Alliance Business Centres Network ranks Dubai as the leading expansion target on a global scale, with 21% of companies placing it ahead of the likes of Singapore, Hong Kong, New York and London. Major factors that put Dubai in the top spot were the ease of establishing companies and doing business.

Six people have been arrested by Dubai police in connection with a huge US$ 270 million international airline ticket fraud that has been ongoing for the past two years. The ruse involved the use of fake or stolen credit cards and then on-selling to duped customers at discounted prices; to date nearly 400 arrests have been made.

The bourse opened Sunday at 3124 and surged 4.0% to 3250 by Thursday (03 March 2016). Bellwether stocks, Emaar Properties and Arabtec, both rose with the former up by US$ 0.05 to US$ 1.58 and the latter, a spectacular 41.9% higher by US$ 0.13 to US$ 0.44. Trading volumes on Thursday improved on last week at 671 million shares, valued at US$ 263 million, changing hands, (cf 671 million shares for US$ 263 million, the previous Thursday).

Brent crude again confounded the doomsayers by jumping 4.5% (US$ 1.59) to US$ 37.07, whilst gold was up US$ 24 to US$ 1,258, by Thursday (03 March) close. On 20 January, crude prices had fallen to US$ 27.10 – their lowest level in 12 years. A senior International Energy Agency analyst considers that oil prices have bottomed out with further increases expected over the next 12 months before returning to normality, as US producers exit the market.

According to a recent HSBC study, it is claimed, that over the next two years, US$ 94 billion in bonds and syndicated loans must be repaid or refinanced in the GCC. The payees are a mix of sovereign, financial and corporate borrowers, with UAE heading the list followed by Qatar and Bahrain. This will be made worse if oil prices do not rebound and then there would be inevitable fiscal and current account deficits with the shortfalls having to be made good out of SWFs.

Barclays has announced that by 2019, the bank will be restructured with two core divisions – Barclays UK and Barclays Corporate and International. Its underlying 2015 profits were down 2.0% to US$ 7.7 billion which includes a further US$ 3.9 billion for PPI mis-selling, bringing this total to US$ 10.6 billion to date.

John Longworth, head of the British Chambers of Commerce, has been suspended after having suggested that the UK would be better off outside the EU. His voice is one of many that indicate opposition to Brexit may be softening, as the crucial 23 June referendum approaches. The official government approach is that the country would be better served if it were to remain in a reformed EU and it has published a report of the options available if it left the bloc – this has been dismissed by the leave campaigners as a “dodgy dossier”.

There was some good news emanating from the eurozone as unemployment rates fell to 10.3% (16.65 million) – its lowest since August 2011. Although Germany had the lowest rate, at 4.3%, Greece (24.6%) and Spain (20.5%) still have problems. However, there was more sober reading – manufacturing activity expanded at its slowest rate in a year, whilst Markit’s manufacturing PMI fell from 52.3 to 51.2. The eurozone fell back into deflation in February – a sure sign that the ECB will introduce more QE measures, probably starting next week. There is also the possibility of further bank deposit rate cuts which are already in negative territory.

Despite the country reeling from low commodity prices, Australia’s economy still grew by 3%, compared to a year earlier, and by 0.6% quarter on quarter. Accordingly, interest rates seem set at 2.0% for the foreseeable future, although the low inflation rate, currently at 1.7%, needs close monitoring; moreso, if it does not reach the 2.9% expected by the end of the year. For the time being, it remains the “Lucky Country”.

The world’s 7^th largest economy, Brazil, has hit the ropes and is now in a period of stagflation – the perfect economic storm when recession (3.8% contraction last year) meets high inflation, now topping 11% – and this, despite the Selic rate being at a high 14.25%. Although sluggish global growth and low commodity prices explain some of the difficulties, the economy has suffered more from internal factors – political paralysis and rampant high-level corruption and its budget deficit is now 10.8% of GDP.

The Russian economy is in a financial quagmire as it contracted by 3.7% last year (and is unlikely to improve in 2016) whilst the rouble has more than halved in value over the past two years, since its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula; it now stands at 72 to the US$. Low oil prices and international sanctions continue to dog any progress and it is thought that if budget cuts are not implemented soon, the currency could collapse as it did in 1998.

With the country forecasting 7.6% growth this year, many eyes were on the Indian finance minister Jaitley as he brought down his 2016 budget. He gave a much needed boost to infrastructure, with a US$ 32 billion spend mainly on roads and railways, and introduced specific reforms to help SMEs, as well as giving them favourable tax treatment. He also will have to find US$ 8.3 billion by selling public assets which may be a welcome precursor to start a privatisation programme in earnest. Overall hopes were dashed that the third budget would introduce major economic reforms.

A bellwether indicator shows how economic conditions in China have deteriorated with manufacturing PMI falling to 49 – its lowest level in 7 years. Other indices also fell – a sure sign that stimulus measures have yet to gain traction which may need the introduction of further action to boost the flagging economy. As the country’s economy continues to lose steam and vacillation on reforms continues, Moody’s has cut its outlook from “stable” to “negative” but retains its Aa3 rating.

South Africa joined BRIC in 2010 but was always the poor relative as the other four economies were always growing at a much faster rate, with the new member only posting 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5% over the first three years. Last year, the economy deteriorated even further, as growth was down to 0.5%, the rand trading down at around 15 to the US$ and government bonds expected to be soon rated junk status. And then there is the president Jacob Zuma, who never went to school and has only ever worked for the ruling African National Congress. However, he has still managed to amass a personal fortune of at least US$ 30 million – small change compared to certain other African leaders.

Only five years ago the BRICS were a powerful economic force and looked as if they would become a dominant global player. This has all changed with only India and China heading north whilst the other three have taken The Wrong Direction.

Although most of the sector’s players have predicted a dismal 2016 for Dubai’s real estate market, official figures paint a brighter picture. The Dubai Land Department reported that, by 22 February, YTD transactions have totalled US$ 18.7 billion, with a 2016 annual forecast reaching US$ 81.6 billion – this would be 14.0% and 37.6% higher than the past two years’ returns.

Dubai Holding’s property unit, Dubai Properties Group, is expecting to finish work on stage 1 of its affordable housing Serena project within two years. The first of five phases will include 2-3 bedroom townhouses and 3-bedroom semi-detached villas. The project will be located on Emirates Road and will also include 100k sq ft of retail space, a clinic and swimming pools.

At the other end of the property spectrum, Damac has announced that it will build car lifts in its 4 million sq ft Aykon City. The development, next to Dubai Canal, will comprise two 30-storey luxury residential units, an 80-floor hotel, a 63-floor office building and an office tower with 65 levels.

Yet another shopping centre in Dubai – this week saw the opening of the US$ 109 million The Mall in Jumeirah, adjacent to the Burj Al Arab. Encompassing 81k sq ft of area, the centre will have 66 outlets, which have all been let, and basement parking for 200 vehicles.

According to Cluttons Dubai Office Market Bulletin, office rents have remained stable, as high demand persists to offset new supply. The report highlighted the fact that of the 22 submarkets analysed, 13 had remained unchanged, 2 had recorded decreases and 7 had registered notable increases during 2015.

The RTA has extended its deadline to the end of the month for developers to register interest in building five mixed-use towers above the Union Square metro station in Deira. In a bid to garner more interest from the private sector, there will be offers of a minimum revenue guarantee to participating companies.

Dubai World has signed two major contracts – with Dutco Balfour Beatty and BAM International Abu Dhabi LLC – to carry out work on its new Container Terminal 4 on reclaimed land in Jebel Ali Port. Phase 1 will be completed by 2018 and, by adding 3.1 million TEUs (20’ equivalent units), the port’s capacity will increase by 16.3% to 22.1 million TEUs, with a further 4.7 million TEUs on completion of phase 2 in 2020. Also this week, the port operator was selected as preferred bidder for operations at the Cypriot port of Limassol.

With 70 hypermarkets and 90 supermarkets in 14 regional countries, Majid Al Futtaim is planning its first of two Kazakhstan Carrefour hypermarkets – the first in Almaty to be followed by one in Astana. Last month, MAF announced a US$ 1 billion expansion plan for two malls in Riyadh.

Emirates has augmented its global position as the largest single player in sports sponsorship. Its latest deal, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, includes signage, a 70 client hospitality section and becoming the outfit’s official carrier. This is the airline’s first foray into baseball but it already has a growing US sporting presence, with sponsorship arrangements including New York Cosmos, US tennis Open and the US rugby team.

Having spent US$ 1.7 billion last year to acquire Dragon Oil, Enoc is again gearing up its expansion plans. The 23-year old state-owned company is to build a further 54 petrol stations in Dubai and increase its condensate capacity at its Jebel Ali refinery

It was no surprise to see that the Mercer’s 2016 Quality of Living Survey again rated Dubai as the leading ME city for expatriate living. However, its 75^th position ranking, out of 230 cities surveyed, will baffle some observers. (Vienna, Zurich and Auckland claimed the top three spots, with Baghdad and Damascus at the other end of the scale).

Strangely, since fuel subsidies were removed last July, pump prices have actually decreased. Despite this anomaly, ratings agency Moody’s estimate savings from this are equivalent to only 0.5% of GDP, compared to the estimated 12.4% of GDP deficit from the lower oil prices.

The weakening market conditions, allied with low oil prices, have begun to impact on the local economy. Etisalat has curtailed plans to raise a 3-year, US$ 2 billion loan. Meanwhile the country’s central bank reported that its foreign assets dropped by 13.0% in January to US$ 80.9 billion, whilst overseas bank deposits decreased 30.0% to US$ 33.3 billion. Not surprisingly, the capital’s SWF, the second largest in the world, could lose 5.4% of its value in 2016 to US$ 475 billion.

Empower – owned by DEWA and TECOM Investments – has also stalled plans to go public, in the wake of adverse market conditions. The Dubai A/C provider reported impressive 2015 results with profit up 26.0% to US$ 141 million, whilst revenue was 12.0% higher at US$ 463 million. It still requires a further US$ 327 million for on-going expansion plans, of which 20% will be internally generated.

Once the darling of the local market, Arabtec has again returned disappointing results. Last year, it posted an annual loss – US$ 627 million – compared to a US$ 59 million profit in 2014. The Q4 loss of US$ 98 million fell short of analysts’ expectations and was a lot worse than the US$ 26 million deficit a year earlier.

The bourse opened Sunday at 3093 and nudged up 1.1% to 3124 by Thursday (25 February 2016). Bellwether stocks, Emaar Properties and Arabtec, were mixed – with the former lower by US$ 0.02 to US$ 1.53 and the latter up US$ 0.02 to US$ 0.31. Trading volumes on Thursday were well down on last week at 358 million shares, valued at US$ 105 million, changing hands, (cf 584 million shares for US$ 170 million, the previous Thursday).

Brent crude, having surged 14.0% the previous week, continued its upward trend jumping 3.5% (US$ 1.20) to US$ 35.48, whilst gold rose by US$ 8 to US$ 1,234, by Thursday (25 February) close.

Although it seemed a done deal last month, with a US$ 2.27 per share offer, J Sainsbury’s attempt to purchase Home Retail Group has been topped by Steinhoff International’s offer of US$ 2.47. The UK supermarket, 25.1% owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, was hoping that this sale would help in its on-line business and expand into new areas such as consumer goods.

On Tuesday, Standard Chartered announced abysmal results with an annual loss of US$ 2.36 billion, compared to a 2014 profit of US$ 2.51 billion. The bank, with 90% of its business in emerging markets, recorded an 87% hike in loan impairment losses to US$ 4.0 billion. It has not been helped by having to close most of its SME accounts in the UAE, regulatory infractions and senior management changes. To some outsiders it seems that the bank has lost its way and treated many customers with corporate disdain.

In contrast, HSBC came in with a 1.2% lower 2015 profit at US$ 13.5 billion but this included a US$ 1.3 billion Q4 loss – maybe a portent of the bumpy economic road ahead? The usual suspects – lower commodity prices and a slowing Chinese and global economy – were the drag factors for the weak results. Over the next two years, the bank hopes to slash its overheads by US$ 5 billion.The bank confirmed that it faces tax probes from several countries, including Indian authorities who are investigating citizens’ accounts in Switzerland and Dubai.

Over the past two years, Qantas has managed to surprise the aviation world as it transformed itself from an industry basket case to recording a record H2 profit of US$ 663 million – well up on the previous half year figure of US$ 264 million. Although lower fuel prices and the weaker AUD were prime factors for this turnaround, it must be noted that its arrangement with Emirates has seen the number of annual Australian passenger traffic to Europe surge fourfold to over 1.5 million.

The dire condition of the global dairy industry has badly hit Australian milk producers. Murray Goulburn – which buys 37% (3.6 billion litres) of the country’s total milk production – has seen annual profits sink by 34%. Consequently, there will be no relief for the “cockies”, as the price of milk solids will be at US$ 4.12 per kg – equivalent to US$ 0.31 per litre. For many, these prices are at best marginal and for many loss-making.

Following January’s HNA’s proposed US$ 6 billion acquisition of US-based Ingram Micro and Haeir’s US$ 4.5 billion agreement to buy GE’s appliance business, another Chinese-state enterprise is looking for overseas trophy assets. ChemChina is set to spend US$ 43 billion to buy Swiss pesticide and seed company Syngenta which gives the company a share value of US$ 465.

Meanwhile Taiwan’s Foxconn has agreed to pay US$ 4.4 billion for Sharp. Latest figures show that the Japanese electronics maker recorded a US$ 978 million 9-month loss to December 2015.

Although Japan is showing signs of moderate recovery there are still concerns about the impact of a slowing global economy, resulting in flat output and worrying export figures. A US$ 27 billion stimulus package will be introduced this month but whether this has any long-term impact remains to be seen. Sluggish consumer demand and low oil prices mean that Japan’s inflation rate remains stubbornly low.

It seems that a recent EU tax ruling may result in some companies leaving Belgium. One of that country’s tax schemes has been declared illegal, resulting in several multinationals having to repay hundreds of million US$. The 10-year old excess profit scheme allowed certain corporations to reduce their tax base by between 50% – 90%.

The IMF has estimated that last year, the lower oil prices cost the MENA oil producers as much as US$ 340 billion in revenues, equivalent to 20% of their combined GDP. Its Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, seems keen to introduce a tax regime to help increase government revenues in these troubled times. For example, she reckons a single digit VAT could net the equivalent increase of 2% in GDP and seems keen to see the introduction of taxes on corporate and personal income as well as on property. Low oil prices will not last forever and the country has done much better without tax (and external meddling) in the past – let the IMF worry about real economic problems elsewhere and Leave Us Alone!

The RTA expects to make a surplus this year, from a 14.5% hike in revenue to US$ 2.04 billion, less total budgeted expenditure of US$ 1.92 billion. The authority has also reconfirmed that the much-vaunted Dubai Canal project will be completed by year-end.

Damac became the first big developer to purchase land at the site, acquiring 4 million sq ft for US$ 343 million. With more deals forthcoming, it proves that the government’s decision, to spend US$ 463 million to extend the waterway by 3 km to connect Business Bay with the sea, has been justified.

The latest property report – this time courtesy of KPMG – paints a glum picture on the 2016 state of Dubai realty. The sector will continue to suffer because of the many expounded reasons – a strong greenback, the slump in oil revenues, geopolitical regional turmoil and the slowing global economy. The Big 4 accounting firm sees a brighter future from 2017, as the hype around Expo 2020 starts to kick in. As indicated in previous blogs, many other firms see further declines this year but seem to be using unreliable and/or incorrect data to reach these conclusions.

The first Rove brand hotel, an Emaar concept, is currently being built, near to the Dubai Parks and Resorts in Jebel Ali. The 458-key property is part of the developer’s strategy, in association with Meraas Holding, to have 10 hotels operating by the time of Expo 2020.

An Alpen Capital report estimates that the UAE healthcare sector will grow by 12.7% per annum and will be worth US$ 19.5 billion by 2020. The country accounts for 26% of the total GCC spend of US$ 40.3 billion, with a per capita of US$ 1.6k.

Following the recent visit of HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, DP World announced a US$ 1 billion investment plan in India. The ports operator has six port concessions in the country, where it has already spent US$ 1.2 billion. Last month, the company signed a Russian US$ 2 billion deal to develop ports in that country.

Cargo traffic at Dubai World Central – ranked 18^th for international freight volumes – showed a 7.7% rise, to 889k tonnes, in 2015, despite a Q4 blip which registered a 10.0% decline to 229k tonnes. Not surprisingly, passenger numbers dropped over the year by 45.2% to 463k; this is mainly because of Dubai International’s runway maintenance work in July of that year which saw increased use being made of the second airport. Q4 passenger numbers were up 62.1% to 180k as a result of a partial shift of flydubai flights.

The Al Habtoor Group has purchased the Hotel Imperial in Vienna for US$ 79 million, bringing its international property portfolio to seven – the same number of hotels it has in Dubai. The seller, Starwood, will continue to manage the establishment that will see a complete renovation over the next four years.

It is reported that government-owned Nakheel is in initial bank negotiations for a US$ 1.4 billion 10-year loan to be used for future construction projects. The developer has a US$ 1.2 billion sukuk, maturing this August, and has sufficient funds to meet its obligation.

The government has resubmitted a bid for the newly named “Khor Dubai” (formerly Dubai Creek) to be recognised as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The new name – translated to “The Traders’ Harbour” – highlights the waterway’s history in making Dubai an international trading hub.

Dubai International Financial Centre’s 2015 company registrations rose by 27.7% to 309, as the total work force was up 11.0% to 19.8k. The number of active registered firms is at 1.44k – an annual increase of 27.7%.

Emirates REIT returned an impressive 26.0% rise in 2015 profits to US$ 61 million, as its net assets grew 8.7% to US$ 470 million. The NASDAQ-listed Sharia compliant real estate investment trust also reported a hike in its investment properties to US$ 673 million.

Mainly because of a 4.1% year on year fall in transport costs, Dubai’s January inflation rate dipped to 1.9%, from 3.1% a month earlier. However, increases in education costs may see this sort of reversal short-lived.

It is the time of the year when school fee hikes are posted for the next academic year. The increases are based on the Education Cost Index (set by the Dubai Statistics Centre at 3.21%) and a school’s individual rating. This time, the KHDA (Knowledge and Human Development Authority) confirmed rises of 3.21% – for ‘acceptable’, ‘weak’ and ‘very weak’ schools – and 4.81%, 5.61% and 6.42% for ‘good’, ‘very good’ and ‘excellent’ schools respectively.

With the reporting season in full swing, both telecoms reported mixed results. Etisalat posted a 2.7% rise in Q4 profits to US$ 632 million, as its annual profit fell by 3.8% to US$ 2.25 billion. On the other hand, Du announced a 10.1% fall in Q4 profits to US$ 126 million, whilst its 2015 profit dropped 8.1% to US$ 529 million, as revenue was flat at US$ 3.36 billion.

Despite a 58.0% hike in revenue to US$ 10.9 million, Shuaa Capital saw a Q4 US$ 44 million loss, compared to a US$ 4 million deficit over the same period in 2014. Over the year, the finance company recorded a 21.0% hike in revenue to US$ 44 million but had a net loss of US$ 52 million, largely due to a US$ 42 million bad debt provision taken by Gulf Capital.

Troubled Gulf Navigation surprised the market with a doubling of 2015 profit to US$ 5.5 million, as revenues rose 12.0% to US$ 39 million. The improvement came about mainly due to increased revenues from its shipping services division and rising tanker rates. However the shipping company still carries US$ 168 million of current liabilities on its balance sheet.

Following a US$ 23 million loss in 2014, Amlak Finance, 45% owned by Emaar Properties, posted a US$ 38 million profit. This follows a restructuring in late 2014 which saw the company return to the DFM, after an absence of 6 years, when it suffered from the GFC and the sinking of Dubai property prices.

The Dubai-based retailer, Marka, reported a more than doubling of its losses in 2015 to US$ 9.4 million, of which US$ 4.1 million was attributable to an acquisition. Its revenue for the year reached US$ 62 million, whilst its assets were valued at US$ 289 million.

With 2015 revenue up 15.0%, the Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group posted a 25.0% hike in net profit to US$ 1.59 billion. This Dubai Holding unit has Dubai Properties (which leases 15k residential units), Jumeirah and TECOM in its portfolio. The latter has seen the number of companies, operating in its business parks, increase by 11.0% last year to 5.1k, employing over 76k.

Drake & Scull announced a Q4 profit of US$ 4 million, with revenue jumping 27.2% to US$ 381 million. However, the annual 2015 loss came in at US$ 255 million (after a US$ 27 million profit the previous year), mainly because of substantial impairment costs in Q3.

Emirates REIT returned an impressive 26.0% rise in 2015 profits to US$ 61 million, as its net assets grew 8.7% to US$ 470 million. The NASDAQ-listed Sharia compliant real estate investment trust also reported a hike in its investment properties to US$ 673 million.

Brokers will be badly hit as the Securities and Commodities Authority’s moved to cut their commission from 0.15% to 0.125%. They are already reeling from Q4 data that sees trading volumes down 40% on the same period in 2014.

The bourse opened Sunday at 2981 and jumped 3.8% to 3093 by Thursday (18 February 2016). Bellwether stocks, Emaar Properties and Arabtec, were mixed – with the former up US$ 0.09 to US$ 1.55 and the latter dipping US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.29. Trading volumes on Thursday were well up on last week at 584 million shares, valued at US$ 170 million, changing hands, (cf 330 million shares for US$ 130 million, the previous Thursday).

This was a bad news and good news week; Brent crude regained all last week’s 12.5% losses and surged 14.0% to US$ 34.28. Conversely, the yellow metal lost a little of its lustre, dropping US$ 22 to US$ 1,226, by Thursday (18 February) close.

Four major oil exporters – KSA, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela – have agreed to cap production at January levels – only if other producers follow suit. Some hope! Meanwhile Bloomberg reports indicate that parts of the shale oil sector could be facing financial problems, with interest payments of U$ 9.8 billion due this year. It could be a precursor for a major banking crisis, if cash-strapped and highly geared fracking companies go under and asset sales come under pressure.

Anglo American, hit by tumbling commodity prices, has posted a US$ 5.5 billion annual loss – more than double the loss of 2014. Consequently, the mining giant is planning to divest itself of Kumba Iron Ore – the world’s 4th biggest iron ore operation – and some of its coalmines to claw back up to US$ 4 billion, to shore up its finances. Little wonder that Moody’s cut its credit rating to junk status.

Apple was one of several companies in the corporate bond market this week and is expected to raise US$ 12 billion, with the sale of 10 tranches of bonds.

Despite problems with their economy, Chinese firms are still splashing out big money for overseas acquisitions. The latest has HNA paying US$ 6.1 billion for Ingram Micro, a US distributor for Apple and Microsoft. On the flip side, US-based Uber estimates that it is losing US$ 1 billion a year in China, as it tries to make a profit in a fiercely competitive market.

India has not given up hope in collecting a US$ 2.1 billion tax bill from Vodaphone. The disagreement between the parties involves the telecom giant’s 2007 US$ 11 billion takeover of Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa’s Indian division. It is claiming that as the transaction was conducted offshore, Indian tax was not applicable.

It is estimated that the UK’s Big 4 banks – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and RBS (73% owned by taxpayers) – will award 2015 bonuses totalling US$ 7.2 billion. HSBC fat cats will award themselves 50% of that total, followed by 24% for Barclays. The bonus payout is roughly the same as the four banks’ new provision for PPI mis-selling which seems to indicate that the banks’ executives continue with bad habits, without any pecuniary penalties.

After months of discussions, HSBC has decided to maintain its head office in London’s Canary Wharf. The previous government had introduced a banking levy, that badly hit the bank’s profits, prompting it to discuss moving to Hong Kong. But a change in government policy saw the levy changed to a surcharge which was a boon for the bank – but not so for banks with mainly British business.

Rolls Royce has cut its dividend for the first time in 23 years, as a result of dismal 2015 results, which has seen its share value dive by almost 40% in the past year. The company posted a profit before tax fall of 12.0% to US$ 2.0 billion and has consequently halved its dividend payment to US$ 0.103 per share. Its marine division, where profits have plummeted by 94%, has been badly hit by the depressed oil and gas sector.

In the UK, the “battle of the grocers” is on in earnest, with the German discount stores Aldi and Lidl now having a combined 10%+ market share – doubling their stake in the past three years. This should increase even further, as the former is expanding its store numbers by 16.7% to 7k by the end of the year; this will see an additional 5k to its current 28k workforce. To add to the impact overseas companies are having in the retail sector, Which? has just named Iceland the leading national online shopping supermarket, although the UK’s Waitrose maintains its position as the top in-store brand.

With a US$ 5.03 cash / 1 share bid, equivalent to US$ 6.44 billion, Qube Holdings outdid the Canadian infrastructure giant Brookfield to finally acquire Asciano, the Australian rail and ports operator. The winning Qube consortium comprises Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, China Investment Corporation and GIP.

After taking over as MD of the IMF from the disgraced Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2011, Christine Lagarde has been nominated unchallenged for a second term.

Even after two years in power, PM Shinzo Abe’s attempts to kick start the Japanese economy have stalled, as Q4 saw a 0.4% contraction, with an annualised rate dip of 1.4%. Despite a massive QE programme and negative interest rates, his efforts have failed because of continuing weak domestic demand, disappointing investment, a stalling yen and a too-low inflation level.

Along with Japan, Greece has had poor economic news – now edging back into recession, following a Q4 contraction of 0.6%, on top of the 1.4% fall in the previous quarter. This week witnessed high-profile protests from farmers who disagree with proposed industry tax breaks being abolished – in line with the terms of their latest EU and IMF bailout conditions which also includes unpopular pension reforms. Troubles are again welling up in the Hellenic nation that has seen its bourse lose almost 30% in the first 7 weeks of trading this year – the worst global performer.

The OECD has cut its 2016 global growth rate to 3.0%, as trade, wage growth and investment weaken, despite monetary policies including QE and interest rate cuts. Major economies such as US, UK and Germany have had their forecasts cut to 2.0%, 2.1% and 1.3% respectively.

2015 Growth in the 19-bloc eurozone was up 1.5%, whilst the 28 countries in the EU recorded slightly better at 1.8%. Worryingly, December industrial production was down 1.0% – an indicator that more stimulus measures are required by the ECB, probably in the form of further QE.

To calm market fears, ECB chief Mario Draghi has played down any problems with the European banking system. His assertions – that banks were now better protected than ever from financial collapse, with improved “capital buffers” than was the case during the 2012 crisis – came after many banks had seen their market value fall almost 25% in the first weeks of 2016.

Trade figures in January reaffirmed that all is not well with the Chinese economy, with year on year falls for both exports, by 11.2% to US$ 177.5 billion, and imports down 18.8% to US$ 114.2 billion. The world’s second largest economy continues to suffer from weak demand – both domestically and globally – as rival countries becoming smarter and more competitive. The country is in the process of trying to transform to a more consumer-spending focus economy and is not being helped by massive capital outflows – in December totalling US$ 160 billion – as traders bet on a further weakening of the yuan.

Some more worrying news from China as its Banking Regulatory Commission announced that Q4 non-performing loans had jumped 7.0% to US$ 196 billion. Troubled loans, where there is a risk in future repayment but still considered ‘performing’, rose to US$ 648 billion, equal to 5.5% of total advances. When the country’s shadow banking, estimated at over US$ 6 trillion, also comes into play, it is becoming more of a case of Money’s Too Tight To Mention.