Out Of Your League                                                  03 July 2026

Before the start of the ME crisis, on 29 February, property buyer sentiment in the UAE was fairly evenly divided – 36% expecting prices to fall, 35% to rise and 29% to remain flat. According to Property Finder, this figure rose to 70%, immediately after the conflict began. before easing to 63% in May – the second monthly decline, despite sellers advertised prices remaining close to pre-conflict levels.

Once the conflict began, the majority of buyers shifted towards expecting price reductions and held off on purchases in anticipation of discounts. That expectation of a decline has eased every month since, reaching 63% in May – a clear, if gradual, adjustment, and not as a sharp correction. In this environment, buyers have become more rigorous negotiators but also can see those premium properties in established locations are still not being heavily discounted. Sellers, on the other hand, are still holding relatively firm, especially where the property is in a strong location or priced sensibly.

Last month, Binghatti sold two penthouses, one for US$ 55 million and the other for US$ 19 million, to international buyers, as the real estate market continued to register exceptional demand for luxury properties; both were at Bugatti Residences by Binghatti in Business Bay. Last December, a penthouse in the same development was sold for US$ 150 million. Other buyers include Brazilian football star Neymar Jr, Spanish footballer Aymeric Laporte, and world-renowned opera tenor Andrea Bocelli.

These transactions follow one of Binghatti’s most notable real estate deals in the region, recorded in December 2025, with the sale of a penthouse within the same development for US$ 150 million – the largest of its kind in Dubai and the Middle East. Muhammad Binghatti, Chairman of Binghatti Holding, commented that “these record transactions reflect the strength and resilience of Dubai’s real estate market, and its continued ability to attract investors and high-net-worth individuals from around the world, driven by the emirate’s stable economic environment, investment-friendly regulations, and ambitious vision, which have reinforced its position as one of the world’s leading destinations for real estate investment”.

To date, Binghatti has delivered half of its one hundred projects, valued at more than US$ 27.25 billion, whilst it still maintains a pipeline of approximately thirty million sq ft of sellable area.

Having just launched thirty days ago, Zoya Developments has started construction of Calisi, its latest US$ 22 million residential project in Dubai South; its location is about ten minutes away from Al Maktoum Airport and fifteen minutes from Expo City Dubai. Calisi will comprise fully furnished two-bedroom apartments, with prices starting from US$ 187k, and slated for a Q3 2027. Facilities will include a swimming pool, a fully equipped gym, indoor parking along with controlled access and security systems. It is the developer’s second residential project in Dubai South, following its Miorah project.

Imtiaz Development, with a portfolio exceeding US$ 4.09 billion and more than twenty-two developments, has broken ground on its US$ 163 million ‘Sea Cliff by Imtiaz’, located on Dubai Islands. The developer has already completed ‘Beach Walk by Imtiaz’, the first handed-over residential development on Dubai Islands, and only last month sold out, on launch date, its US$ 545 million RAW District by Imtiaz. This project encompasses one-, two- and three-bedroom units, along with exclusive four-bedroom duplex homes. Residents will have access to a curated collection of leisure and wellness spaces, including an infinity swimming pool, open-to-sky garden seating, outdoor cinema, pavilion clubhouse, outdoor gym and yoga zone; its interiors will include global brands such as Hermès, Villeroy & Boch and Miele. Handover is expected by Q1 2028.

Last Tuesday, 30 June, DAMAC Properties topped out its US$ 66 million fifty-two storey Harbour Lights Tower in Dubai Maritime City. It will have two hundred and ninety-four apartments, five podium levels, retail space and amenity floors on level 52; it will also feature an infinity pool, a gym, steam and sauna facilities. Handover is expected next year.

At the event, Mohammed Tahaineh, its Chief Project Officer, noted that the developer’s pipeline had avoided any major hit from recent supply chain pressure, helped by the UAE’s port and logistics response. He also added that, “people are saying there are supply constraints, but I think in the UAE, and especially in Dubai, the government has made a lot of effort to make sure there are no disruptions in the supply chain. They opened Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, so it is then a matter of how developers manage between themselves and their suppliers”.

According to a new Moody’s Ratings report, UAE developers are managing the impact of the disruption to supplies caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although the ‘new’ supply chains see rerouting at both higher cost and longer lead times. The study also noted that inventory levels remained constant with contractors, (and not developers), absorbing most of the cost inflation, including imported building material costs which have risen by roughly 20% – 25%. The worrying part of the report is that it expects the current disruptive situation to continue until the end of 2026 before some form of normalcy returns. This will weigh heavy on Dubai developers, (and their ability to procure materials and deliver projects on schedule), who historically will receive up to 30% – 40% of their revenue upon handover. The Moody’s report points to deliveries remaining on schedule, with building material inventory coverage currently standing at two to six months, whilst almost no disruption has been seen for products sourced locally, including concrete, steel, aluminium and ceramics. However, there are supplies that are sourced oversea such as lifts, air-conditioning equipment, MEP components, lighting, wood joinery, natural stone and furnishings it is to be noted that as projects near completion,, developers tend to increase buffer supplies to avoid last-mile delays, meaning many properties scheduled for delivery until the end of this year were already close to completion – or had materials secured – before disruption began. Several large developers have started using other entry points – including Fujairah, Oman and Saudi Arabia – for their merchandise, which help to keep construction going.

Moody’s reckons that several large developers – Including Emaar Properties, Aldar Properties, Damac Real Estate Development Limited, DIFC and Arada Developments – use third-party contracts on fixed terms, with material price requirements and delivery schedule set in advance. Others, like PNC Investments and Binghatti Holding, have integrated or related-party construction capabilities. However, if the troubles continue into 2027, then there would obviously be a rush in contract renegotiations – and the subsequent hike in new property prices.

Specifically, for Meraas and Nakheel investors, Dubai Holding Real Estate has launched a dedicated service to help eligible property investors navigate Golden Visa and investor residency procedures; its main aim is to make their home-buying process smoother and more transparent. The new initiative will see clients being offered immediate support on eligibility, required documents and application procedures at the same place where they select their homes, with applications being handled by an approved visa services provider. The service covers key residency options available to property investors, including the UAE’s ten-year Golden Visa for eligible real estate investors, who own one or more properties worth at least US$ 545k, subject to applicable conditions and approval by the relevant authorities. This initiative runs in tandem with the Dubai Real Estate Strategy 2033, which aims to raise home ownership to 33%, double the real estate sector’s contribution to Dubai’s GDP to about US$ 19.88 billion and increase real estate transactions by 70%.

Led by the federal Minister of State, Saeed Al Hajeri, a UAE delegation has held high-level meetings with leading officials from the US Departments of Commerce, Treasury and State, as well as the Office of the US Trade Representative. The target is to reaffirm their commitment to expand bilateral economic cooperation. 2025 bilateral trade rose 12.0%, at US$ 40.0 billion, with the UAE still the largest export market for US goods in the MENA for the seventeenth consecutive year. It is estimated that US exports to the UAE supports more than two hundred and five thousand American jobs. The meetings also highlighted the UAE’s $1.4 trillion commitment to investment and economic impact in the US over the next decade, with both countries looking to expand cooperation in AI innovation, advanced manufacturing, energy and financial services.

The UAE has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening economic ties with South America’s five nation Mercosur bloc – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Addressing a recent meeting, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, emphasised the UAE’s commitment to concluding a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the bloc. He also highlighted the significance of building a more resilient and sustainable economic partnership. The Minister also noted that the 2025 bilateral non-oil trade topped US$ 6.2 billion. Discussions also focused on expanding cooperation in food security, clean energy, logistics and future industries.

On Wednesday, 01 July, the CEPA with Ukraine came into force, representing an important advancement in the two nations’ economic ties. The agreement aims to create new opportunities for trade, investment and private sector collaboration and, at the same time, will eliminate or reduce tariffs on a wide range of goods and services; it will also see closer private-sector collaboration. Under the agreement, 99% of Ukrainian imports of UAE goods and 97% of Ukrainian exports to the UAE will be exempt from customs duties, with immediate effect. The agreement is forecast to contribute US$ 369 million to the UAE’s GDP and US$ 874 million to Ukraine’s GDP by 2031. In 2025, non-oil foreign trade between the UAE and Ukraine reached US$ 347 million – well down on the US$ 904 million balance achieved in 2021. Following this latest deal, seventeen out of the thirty-seven CEPAs concluded to date have come into force.

As 2025 bilateral non-oil trade with Panama surged 49.7% to US$ 186 million, the Minister of Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, has been holding high level meetings in Panama City, with government ministers et alia. Talks have been focussed on various topics, with the twin aims of exploring new opportunities for economic cooperation and expanding investment in key sectors. The Minister also participated in the Global Leaders Forum, where he highlighted the importance of investing in ports, airports, transport networks and digital infrastructure to support global trade. He also noted that the nations both serve as two strategic gateways for international commerce and share a commitment to strengthening supply chains, facilitating the movement of goods and supporting a rules-based global trading system. Any visit to another country by the Minister usually involves discussions around UAE’s CEPA programme.

To ensure that there will be increased emphasis on competitiveness, innovation and strengthening the emirate’s position as a global hub for content creation and business media, Sheikh Ahmed bin Mohammed, as Dubai Media Council’s chairman, approved the launch of a new platform called ‘Dubai Business’. In tandem with the Dubai Economic Agenda, D33, the new entity will showcase the emirate’s economic story to global audiences and highlight investment opportunities across key sectors. Sheikh Ahmed, (stressing Dubai’s need for a media platform that reflects its rapid growth and ensures that the world becomes aware of its position and progress), hopes the platform will communicate its achievements to the world with accurate and in-depth reporting.

At the same meeting, the Media Council discussed plans for the upcoming “Gaming Retreat’, which will see both the local and international stakeholders exploring opportunities in the fast-growing gaming industry. It was noted that the emirate continues to build a strong, future-ready media and digital ecosystem that supports economic growth, attracts investment and strengthens its global competitiveness.

Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, Chairman of the World Green Economy Organisation, has called for stronger international cooperation and investment in critical minerals, describing them as essential to achieving global climate goals and accelerating the transition to clean energy. Speaking at London Climate Action Week 2026, he stressed that reaching net-zero emissions will require greater investment in sustainable and responsible mineral supply chains, alongside stronger partnerships between governments, financial institutions and the private sector. He added that minerals, used in technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries and power grids, are the foundation of the global green economy.

To accelerate the use of AI, smart transport systems and digital infrastructure across the emirate’s future mobility projects, the Roads and Transport Authority has signed two strategic agreements with Chinese technology giants Huawei, (focussing on developing smart city applications and smart operations centre), and CASCO SIGNAL.  The latter deal sees the establishment of an advanced R&D centre and innovation laboratory in Dubai, linked to the Dubai Metro Blue Line and future metro projects. This comes at a time when the emirate is keen to strengthen international partnerships and adopt advanced technologies for its growing transport network.

The UAE announced deregulation of local petrol and diesel prices in 2015 to bring them in line with global rates. Since then, the local retail fuel rates have revised at the end of every month to align with global oil prices. On 01 July, the UAE announced fuel prices for July 2026, after four months of consecutive rises. Since the outbreak of the ME war on 28 February, retail fuel prices in the UAE had been on the rise, for four consecutive months, jumping more than 60%. With global oil prices trending downward throughout June, the expected happened with monthly falls of between 13.94% to 16.86%.

		July	June	Decreases	01 Jan
	US$
	Super 98	0.926	1.076	-13.94%	0.689
	Special 95	0.896	1.044	-14.18%	0.659
	EPlus	0.875	1.025	-14.65%	0.638
	Diesel	0.981	1.180	-16.86%	0.695

According to the Central Bank of the UAE, economic growth will slow to 1.7% this year, attributable to the impact of the regional crisis which has seen trade, shipping, tourism and private sector confidence, all heading south. The good news is that UAE growth will more than quintuple to 9.8% in 2027.  The economic slowdown is seen to be only temporary, whilst next year will see all guns blazing, driven by several factors including higher oil production, continued expansion in non-oil sectors, robust government spending and ongoing infrastructure projects. Inflation is set to average 2.3% this year and 1.9% next – both well below the global average.

The DFM opened the week on Monday 29 June on 6,018 points, and having shed one hundred and forty-six points (2.4%), the previous week, gained forty-one points (0.7%), to close the week on 6,059 points, by 03 July 2026. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.33 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.10 to close on US$ 3.30 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.75 US$ 8.29, US$ 2.07 and US$ 0.41, and closed on 03 July at US$ 0.75, US$ 8.35, US$ 2.10 and US$ 0.41. On 03 July, trading was at one hundred and twelve million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and forty million dollars, compared to one hundred and sixty-four million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and ninety-three million dollars, on 26 June. 

The bourse had opened the year on 6,047 points and, having closed on 30 June at 5,956, was 91 points (1.5%) lower YTD. Emaar had started the year with a 01 January 2025 opening figure of US$ 3.83, and had shed US$ 0.58, to close on 30 June 2026, at US$ 3.25. Four other bellwether stocks, DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started 2026 on US$ 0.74, US$ 7.59, US$ 2.53 and US$ 0.45 and closed on 30 June 2026 at US$ 0.76, US$ 8.05, US$ 2.03 and US$ 0.41. 

By 03 July 2026, Brent, US$ 12.64 (5.1%) lower the previous fortnight, shed US$ 0.36 (0.5%), to close the week, on US$ 71.71. Gold, US$ 717 (12.9%) lower the previous eight weeks, gained US$ 111 (3.6%), to end the week’s trading at US$ 4,185 on 26 June. Silver was trading at US$ 59.03 on 26 June – and closed US$ 3.35 (5.8%) higher on the week at US$ 62.38.

Brent started the year on US$ 60.91, and US$ 12.28 higher (20.2%), YTD, to close 30 June 2026 on US$ 73.19. Gold started the year trading at US$ 4,341, and by the end of June, the yellow metal had shed US$ 317 (6.5%) and was trading at US$ 4,024. Silver started 2026, trading at US$ 70.60 and closed US$ 11.18 (5.2%) lower on 30 June at US$ 59.42.

Hopefully assuming that that ceasefire talks, between the US and Iran, are progressing well and that there will be an early end to the crisis, oil prices have fallen to their pre-war level of around US$ 70 a barrel; it had fallen 44.4% from its peak price of US$ 126 in April. Qatari mediators had indicated that progress had been made on the terms of a deal that would lead to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, for what is worth, President Trump said that Iran’s denuclearisation plans were “moving along well”. Despite spasmodic attacks on shipping in the waterway, over the past week, oil traders have remained upbeat about the prospect of a vast supply coming onto the global market this summer. 

British American Tobacco, currently employing about forty-seven thousand people globally, has announced that it will be shedding 5.5k roles and outsourcing 3.5k more, citing that the cost cuts will save about US$ 794 million a year by 2028; its payroll would be cut by 19.1% to 38k, with the US not impacted. Earlier in the year, the tobacco giant, which has brands like Lucky Strike and Dunhill cigarettes, posted that it was planning savings to make it “more digital and AI-focused”, and that traditional cigarette sales were slowing, with increased competition from vapes and nicotine pouches. BAT’s sales and profit margins have headed south for several years, attributable to several factors including the rising cost of living, (having pushed customers to cheaper alternatives), rising duties in many markets, an influx of illegal products from China and tighter regulations.

FTSE 100 Index-listed, Associated British Foods is best known for its retail division, with Primark’s three hundred and eighty-four stores, in several countries, and its grocery division, famous for brands such as Ryvita, Mazola, Ovaltine, Kingsmill and Twinings. Less well-known is its ingredients division, a major producer of emulsifiers, enzymes and lactose. It is also the world’s second largest producer of baker’s yeast, as well as being the fourth largest global producer of sugar – at 4.5 million tonnes a year. The latter has been badly impacted by rising energy costs, lower European sugar prices, issues with its Tanzanian sugar mill, the anticipated devaluation of the Malawian kwacha, adverse weather conditions and higher imports in South Africa. This week, ABF posted a Q3 trading update warning that it expected the sugar business to report a larger-than-expected full-year operating loss of between US$ 33.4 million to US$ 80.1 million this year with “further deterioration” expected in the 2027 financial year.

Q3 like-for-like Primark sales declined 2.2% in Q3, with UK sales growth of 1.0%, but like-for-like sales broadly flat. In April, the Board announced that it was going to split Primark from its food operations and this demerger is slated to occur in H2 2027. Both companies should qualify for inclusion on the FTSE 100-Index with Primark and the food business garnering some US$ 12.69 billion and US$ 13.09 billion in annual revenue.

In 1853, the Halifax brand was born but Lloyds Banking Group has decided that, after one hundred and seventy-three years on British high streets, it will scrap the name, with all customer accounts being rebranded to Lloyds over time. The move for phasing out Halifax as a standalone brand, which has been mooted for some time and now it has been scrapped to simplify the group’s portfolio, with the distinction between Halifax and Lloyds seen as becoming less prominent in recent years. Lloyds said it remained committed to the town of Halifax, and the wider Yorkshire and Humber region, where some three thousand staff are based at its Trinity Road office.

Last year, Modella Capital acquired WH Smith’s former High Street business and rebranded them under TG Jones. Currently, there are four hundred and fifty-one stores, with four thousand, seven hundred employees. Less than a year later, Modella has announced a radical restructuring plan blaming “challenging retail conditions”, which will result in the loss of one hundred and fifty outlets, (about a third of its portfolio), one hundred and twenty landlords receiving no rent for up to three years, and rent cuts, of between 15% and 75%, on hundreds of other stores. This week, it received approval of its cost savings plan by the High Court after it had heard that the retailer was on the brink of insolvency and was facing a cash shortfall of nearly US$ 10.70 million by the end of this week, unless the rescue deal was approved. (WH Smith travel stores, in railway stations and airports, are not part of the deal with WH Smith retaining the rights to the historic brand name).

Bangladesh, that has seen food and commodity prices jump, driven by the ME crisis, has benefitted from the World Bank approving US$ 1.1 billion in emergency financing to help secure food supplies and support vulnerable households and businesses. To further enhance its dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and ease pressure on public finances, the country will seek finances from other sources such as the IMF and the World Bank.

As noted in a recent blog – ‘I Don’t Like Mondays’, 19 June – Japan’s currency was quickly heading to its weakest level in almost forty years. On Wednesday, 01 July, the dollar pushed higher against the yen, touching 162.525 yen per dollar – the highest close for the dollar-yen pair since 23 December 1986. No surprise to see pressure mounting on the Bank of Japan and the global knock-on effect could be of concern as it will inevitably influence US interest rates, as well as making Japan’s imports more expensive. It seems highly likely that the US central bank has a route that will see rates remain higher for longer and although the BoJ has finally started moving their rates higher, they are still being overshadowed by the Fed. With the yen tracking so low, there will be internal pressure to take action which will inevitably mean the need for the BoJ to buy US$. As it turns out, their vaults hold more than US$ 1 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds. If drastic action has to be taken to ‘save’ the yen, it could result in Treasury prices falling, with yields rising as the BoJ sell their US assets. This could lead to international borrowing costs moving higher and increased volatility on the global markets not to mention inflation rising in tandem.

The main reason is the growing gap between interest rates in the US and Japan. The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates relatively high in its effort to control inflation. Although the Bank of Japan has begun raising rates, after years of ultra-loose monetary policy, Japanese borrowing costs remain far lower than those in the US. That makes dollar-denominated assets much more attractive to investors, encouraging them to sell yen and buy dollars.

Latest figures indicate that since 2022, Charles lll and his son, William, have paid a combined figure of US$ 66.0 million, (£50 million), in tax since the King’s accession. The tax payable was assessed on the income they received from the duchies of Lancaster and Cornwall respectively, plus capital gains from any private investments they have made. This is the first time in history where the monarch has declared to publish their tax bill. Kensington Palace confirmed that for the two fiscal years ending 2024-25, William’s tax bills were US$ 10.6 million and US$ 11.0 million, and that he had paid US$ 26.4 million, (GBP 20 million), since he became the Prince of Wales.

With parliament adjusting the funding figure, (by increasing the profits made from the Crown Estate profits from the current 12.0% to 20.5%), it will result in the royal household’s core funding more than doubling, within the next three years, with the latest royal accounts revealing that the monarchy’s core funding will rise to almost US$ 132 million by 2027-28. Interestingly, the King and Queen will not move back to Buckingham Palace and will live in Clarence House, with their former abode only being used to host world leaders and royal receptions. The taxpayer has paid US$ 493 million for renovations to the palace which will be completed next year.

UK motorists started the week off in good spirits, as diesel prices plunged US$ 0.227 per litre, at their fastest rate since 2000, with more declines on the cards. However, prices are still some way to equal the prices prior to 29 February 2026. Before the conflict, Brent was about US$ 70 a barrel, but the conflict saw it peak at above US$ 120; now, after the ceasefire framework deal was signed, it is hovering around the US$ 70 level. It has been estimated that every US$ 10 increase in the oil price pushes the UK pump prices US$ 0.094 higher. According to the RAC, the average price of petrol reached an Iran war peak of US$ 2.13 a litre on 28 May, while diesel’s highest average price during the conflict was US$ 2.56 on 15 April. Since then, prices have tumbled., with the June average price of diesel down 9.00% to US$ 2.234, with petrol 5.0% lower at US$ 2.043. Prior to the start of the war, petrol and diesel prices were averaging US$ 1.765 and US$ 1.898 per litre. (Higher prices were noted at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine when petrol and diesel prices were at US$1.915 and US$ 2.660 per litre).

Ahead of the Immigration and Asylum Bill, published documents indicate that some 75% of all migrants who are granted the right to stay in the UK, on the basis of human rights laws, are unemployed. To date, some 11.89k migrants have arrived on small boats, which the Home Office estimates to have cost the taxpayer US$ 25k per each asylum seeker or over US$ 296 million in asylum costs alone. A study by the Home Office, for the quarter ending October 2025, found that 83% of claimants were successful and allowed to stay in the UK or join family. Of those who were rejected, 30% appealed against the decision, and more than half had it overturned. 

Having declared in his farewell speech and pledging his “full and unequivocal support” to his successor and noting that they would inherit a Britain that is “far stronger and fairer” than the one he inherited two years prior, Keir Starmer promised to “do everything I can to ensure an orderly handover of power”. Guess what? It does appear that the ‘Prince of U-Turns’ and ‘King of Promises’ has already done his twenty-third U-Turn, as prime minister and broken the promise made earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, Andy Burnham found out that he was left with a US$ 6.28 billion black hole to fill at the next budget and the need to find a further US$ 9.08 billion of cuts to reach Britain’s defence spending targets. Some 67% of the defence US$ 20 billion investment plan is funded by cuts to other departments’ capital budgets. It does seem that most of these departmental cuts have yet to be assigned with some Burnham allies unhappy with Starmer, who should have forced his ministers to take the cuts now and take the political hit. One MP commented that “if you’re on the way out you might as well take the tough decisions in the interest of the country and the party, you might as well take the hit – it is spiteful not to be taking that approach”.

Starmer seems happy enough to leave that problem on Burnham’s plate. Now the incoming prime minister will have to deal with how to manage cuts to things like hospital building programmes, road improvements and new transport projects across the country. Although it seems that Burnham has been briefly briefed on the broader plan, it seems that there will be some “unexploded bombs” waiting for him when he takes office. Burnham will have three options to raise the required amount. The two obvious solutions will be to raise taxes or to cut public spending; a third choice would be to issue “war bonds” to fund the uplift, which the incumbent has highlighted in the past. Both the former will impact on Labour constituencies, leaving many Labour members not well pleased with the situation; however, he could introduce some sort of wealth tax or a super tax on energy companies and banks, to ease the pain. In the short-term, the third choice could be used. Maybe this was a final act by a spiteful man venting his anger and disbelief that he had been betrayed by Burnham, et alia, and had no intention of making life easy for them. Public perception of Keir Starmer has been widely negative, with polls frequently showing him to be one of the country’s most unpopular leaders. His recent actions have not boded well with his Cabinet. Perhaps his main problem was that he should have been told earlier that you are Out Of Your League!