Forever Young!                                                                   21 March 2025                    

KeyMavens Real Estate Development launched Montage – The Al Jaddaf – Dubai’s first urban residentia resort, set for completion in 2027. Engel & Völkers Middle East will oversee sales and marketing for the project, which includes one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments. It is set for completion in 2027. The project comprises one and two-bedroom apartments, with Portola, a full-floor sanctuary of unparalleled experiences, outdoor pools surrounded by lush urban forests to immersive indoor wellness retreats. Oher features include a welcoming luxury lobby/ lounge, fitness centre, pool & deck retreat, ice room, cold plunge therapy, oxygen room, 180-degree relaxation room, Himalayan salt room, lagoon-style children’s pool, virtual reality room, urban forest and red-light therapy.

So far this year, the five leading nations, when it comes to purchasing Dubai real estate, are India, UK, Italy, Russia and Pakistan, as the local market continues to attract a diverse global audience. Betterhomes noted that Italian and Egyptian sales rose by 22% and a very impressive 150%. The consultancy added, “this year, we’ve seen a clear shift in buyer demographics, with a significant rise in Egyptian and Italian investors. Many of our Egyptian clients are seeking stability amid currency fluctuations, while Italians are drawn to Dubai’s tax advantages and luxury lifestyle. It’s not just about buying property – it’s about securing their future in a globally recognised market”

This week, the Dubai Land Department launched the pilot phase of the ‘Real Estate Tokenisation Project’. This initiative is set to digitise property transactions by converting real estate assets into blockchain-based digital tokens, significantly enhancing transparency, efficiency, and accessibility in real estate investment. Following the pilot phase, DLD will conduct a comprehensive evaluation to refine the project before full-scale implementation. It is expected that by 2033, this advanced technology, the first introduced in the ME region, will account for 7% of Dubai’s realty sector, valued at US$ 16.35 billion. This project was developed in collaboration with the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority andDubai Future Foundation through SandBox Real Estate. The Real Estate Tokenisation Project is designed to:

• expand investment opportunities by allowing multiple investors to co-own a single property through tokenised assets
• attract global technology firms to the UAE’s real estate market
• strengthen Dubai’s position as a leading hub for virtual assets and digital economy
• enhance transparency and governance, ensuring secure and efficient real estate transactions
• support innovation by integrating advanced blockchain solutions into Dubai’s property sector

UAE’s Rove Hotels has been named the official partner for Dubai Airshow 2025 that will take place over five days from 17 – 21 November 2025. The first Rove hotel opened at Downtown Dubai in 2016, and the brand now has over 6.5k rooms open.

With the triple aims of strengthening the country’s judicial system, developing the country’s indicators related to the rule of law and enforcement of justice, and achieving effective justice based on the concepts of partnership and integration, the federal cabinet has approved executive regulations for the law regulating the legal profession and legal consultation profession. Its specifications include the conditions for:

• transferring a lawyer from the roll of lawyers practising before the courts of first instance and appeal to the roll of lawyers practising before the Federal Supreme Court

• practical training for trainee lawyers and the obligations of the lawyer supervising the training, along with the regulations for licensing non-national lawyers to practise law in the UAE

• registering researchers and legal advisors, including the regulations for deleting and re-registering a researcher or legal advisor, as well as the powers of legal advisors

• establishing the register of law and legal consultation firms and the procedures for licensing, suspension, deletion, and liquidation thereof, as well as the regulations for the equivalency of university qualifications

Furthermore, Emirati lawyers and legal consultants may establish professional companies individually or in partnership with international law firms after obtaining the necessary approvals from the competent authorities, provided that these firms have been established for at least fifteen years and have branches or companies in at least three other jurisdictions.

The World Happiness Report 2025, published by Gallup, sees the UAE climbing to twenty-first, ahead of the likes of the UK, the US, Germany, France, Singapore, and all Arab countries, but behind Finland (number one for the eighth consecutive year), Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Iceland; at the other end of the scale comes Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Lebanon, Malawi and Zimbabwe. The Happiness Index is based on a three-year average of quality-of-life assessments across different nations. The UAE ranks:

• sixteenth globally for donating money, reflecting its culture of generosity
• nineteenth for volunteering time, reinforcing its commitment to social welfare
• twelfth in the world for believing a stranger would return a lost wallet, showcasing strong societal trust
• sixty-seventh for helping a stranger, indicating an area for improvement

The study noted that the UAE consistently ranks high due to its economic stability and giving culture, which are closely linked to happiness, and that UAE’s strong job market, economic growth, and high living standards have contributed to increased happiness levels, with 2025 declared the ‘Year of Community’ to further strengthen social bonds.

A recent survey by Perspectus found that UAE professionals work an average of seven extra unpaid hours per week, raising concerns about work-life balance and employee well-being. Some alarming statistics see 90% of employees responding to work emails and calls outside official working hours, a high 59% struggling to disconnect from work when at home and 76% saying that the work-life balance has become more skewed since the pandemic. The fact that employees are working harder should be a wake-up call for employers, particularly if they want to retain happy and motivated staff. Psychologists suggest that reducing work hours could significantly improve employees’ mental and physical well-being, reinforcing the need for companies to strike a better balance between productivity and employee health.

Additional insights from the survey show that:

• 55% of employees feel that working beyond official hours is an unspoken expectation
• 43% worry that if they do not put in extra time, someone else will
• 33%of respondents said their boss directly told them to work harder
• while 34% of employees feel loyal to their company, they do not believe their employer reciprocates that loyalty

With National Central Cooling Company, a 51% shareholder, and Dubai Holding Investments, with the balancing stake, a concession agreement has been signed to provide district cooling services for Palm Jebel Ali. The major shareholder, also known as Tabreed, is 82% owned by sovereign investor Mubadala (42%) and the French low-carbon energy and services company ENGIE (40%), This structure is designed to optimise cooling capacity, enhance information-sharing and strengthen customer protection, while ensuring sustainable cooling solutions for this transformative development. The project is expected to cost US$ 409 million, with construction work expected to start in Q2; the first cooling services is expected to be delivered by 2027.

It seems that every other week a new CEPA is announced, with news that Tunisia is the latest to enter into negotiations with the UAE. The triple aims of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are to strengthen bilateral trade and investment, by reducing tariffs and trade barriers, improving market access, and creating new investment pathways across key sectors. The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi noted that Tunisia is a valuable trade partner, with non-oil trade topping US$ 350 million – 7.7% higher compared to last year; the UAE is Tunisia’s top trade partner in the GCC region. A CEPA paves the way for new opportunities for JVs, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing and renewable energy sectors. To date, an impressive twenty-six CEPAs have been finalised which is one of the reasons why the country’s 2024 total trade reached an all-time high of $816 billion – 14.6% higher on the year.

The UAE General Civil Aviation Authority has unveiled the region’s first national regulation, ‘CAR Airspace Party Uspace’, dedicated to certifying air navigation service providers for unmanned aircraft.  This has been introduced because of the need to set up a robust protocol for entities looking to deliver air navigation services for drones. It will ensure that drone navigation will be able to immediately operate into the existing aviation ecosystem, while ensuring a safe and efficient airspace. It will also encompass all the other variables that will impact the running of this relatively new form of flying. This will include contracting, training, quality assurance, safety protocols, future planning, auditing, and certification. 

Last year, National Bonds distributed US$ 160 million in returns to sukuk holders who had invested US$ 4.31 billion by the end of last year – a 22.5% annual increase. Some savers earning up to 4.75%, while the overall average return rate stood at 4.02%. 2024 also witnessed a 51% increase in the number of regular savers, highlighting the growing demand for structured savings plans in the community. There was also a 41% 2024 hike in digital savings. National Bonds continues its low-to-medium risk strategy to ensure capital protection, with an investment spread of:

• up to 20%        bank deposits
• 30% – 40%      fixed income assets
• 10% – 12%      listed equities
• 8%                    private equity
• 20%                 real estate

In 2024, National Bonds became one of the first companies to offer end-of-service benefits programmes, in partnership with the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation. The firm has also an annual rewards programme, valued at almost US$ 10 million, along with other tangible incentives, aims to inspire a disciplined saving culture.

A resolution, to make it easier for free zone businesses to expand their mainland operations, has been issued by Dubai’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid. All that is required for any free zone company that wishes to avail of this service is to obtain the necessary permits from the Department of Economy and Tourism. It is expected that this initiative will also create a more dynamic and efficient business environment, drive job creation and innovation, as well as fostering a competitive economy. All establishments, operating outside the free zone and within Dubai when this resolution takes effect, must comply with its provisions within one year from its effective date.

Following yesterday’s US Federal Reserve’s announcement, to maintain the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances as is, the Central Bank of the UAE followed suit and decided not to change the 4.40% Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at fifty bp above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities. The Base Rate signals the general stance of monetary policy and provides an effective floor for overnight money market interest rates in the UAE.

This week, Nasdaq Dubai welcomed its latest listing – a US$ 1 billion ten-year unsecured sukuk at a rate of 5.038%, by the Government of Ras Al Khaimah; this brought the bourse’s total value of sukuk to over US$ 92.7 billion, resulting in the value of debt securities, currently listed on Nasdaq Dubai, to US$ 136.2 billion across one hundred and fifty-seven issuances. Fitch Ratings has forecast a robust UAE debt capital market this year, expecting its value to top US$ 400 billion over the next few years. This will be achieved by several drivers, including funding diversification, upcoming debt maturities, infrastructure financing, regulatory reforms, and the Dirham Monetary Framework implantation.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 17 March, two hundred and seven points lower, (4.0%), the previous four weeks, shed forty-one points (0.8%), to close the trading week on 5,100 points, by Friday 21 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.15 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.08, closing on US$ 3.65 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.68, US$ 5.46 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.36 and closed on US$ 0.66, US$ 5.44 US$ 1.97 and US$ 0.36. On 21 March, trading was at two hundred and forty-five million shares, with a value of US$ two hundred and fifty-four million dollars, compared to dollars two hundred and ten million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and two million dollars, on 14 March.

By Friday, 21 March 2025, Brent, US$ 0.19 higher (5.8%) the previous week, gained US$ 1.56 (2.2%) to close on US$ 72.14. Gold, US$ 149 (5.2%) higher the previous fortnight, gained US$ 25 (0.8%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 3.109 on 21 March.

The latest Post Office Travel Money study, offering the best value for money for UK holiday makers, ranked Portugal’s Algarve the cheapest out of forty-six destinations surveyed. The analysis compared prices for eight typical tourist items and discovered the Algarve offers significantly lower prices than many other spots. It found that a cup of filter coffee cost just US$ 1.64, a 200ml bottle of suncream – US$ 6.58 – and a three-course evening meal for two with a bottle of house wine – US$ 52.20. These compared to the most expensive destination, New York, where the three items cost US$ 4.88, US$ 10.54 and US$ 166.02 – more than triple the cost found in Portugal.  Overall, prices for UK visitors to the Algarve dipped 1.6% on the year, driven by the low cost of meals and drinks, and an annual 1.8% rise in the value of the pound against the euro. Other locations offering value to UK tourists include Cape Town, Tokyo and Bali. Interestingly, it was noted that in over half of the destinations surveyed, there were declines in prices on the year, with the sharpest fall noted being Dominican Republic’s 26.5%.

Your morning coffee may become a little more expensive, with latest reports showing that world prices rose 38.8% on the previous year’s average, to attain a multi-year high in 2024. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, the main driver was inclement weather, affecting key producing countries. The FAO noted that last December, Arabica, the higher quality coffee favoured in the roast and ground coffee market, was selling 58% higher on the year, while Robusta, used mainly for instant coffee and blending, was 70% higher in real terms. These latest figures showed that the price differential between the two coffee varieties had narrowed for the first time since the mid-1990s. The FAO warns that the price may rise even further this year for a stack of reasons, including the possibility of further significant supply reductions, along with adverse weather in Brazil, reduced output in Indonesia, and limited export quantities from Vietnam, where farmers are replacing their coffee crops with durian to cash in on this emerging market; the country’s durian market share in China almost doubled between 2023 and 2024, and some estimate the crop is five times more lucrative than coffee.

According to figures, Brazil and Vietnam account for nearly 50% of world coffee production, with global coffee production, which in 2023 topped eleven million tonnes valued at over US$ 20 billion annually; the global coffee industry generates over US$ 200 billion in annual revenues. The value of total coffee trade is estimated at over US$ 25 billion per year. In 2023, coffee export earnings accounted for 33.8% of total merchandise exports in Ethiopia, 22.6% in Burundi, and 15.4% in Uganda. The largest coffee importers were the EU and the US.

Earlier in the year, talks between Nissan and Honda would have resulted in the creation of a mega US$ 62.13 billion car giant. This week, there are reports that the former is to cease negotiations. It was only last November, the carmaker had ended a twenty-five-year alliance with Renault, (which had reduced its equity in the alliance), and Mitsubishi, amid warnings that it would have just fourteen months to survive without a partner. It seems that the breaking point this time was that Nissan did not want to be a Honda subsidiary, indicating that control could have been a contentious issue. If it had borne fruition, the new alliance would have created the third-largest global car manufacturer and helped both companies have a stronger chance of competing against the growing number of Chinese car brands in export markets. Honda has released a statement, insisting there are no plans to end discussions between the two companies. There is no doubt that Nissan will be on the lookout for a new partner, with one possibility being Taiwan’s Foxxconn, the world’s largest producer of contract electronics. Such a deal would see the tech company helping to develop fully electric models, such as future generations of the Leaf hatchback.

Volkswagen saw a marginal 1.4% decrease in 2024 sales, to 4.8 million vehicles, attributable to a sluggish economy and strong competition. Strangely, China was the German car maker’s biggest source market where it sold nearly 2.2 million vehicles. Its revenue stream nudged US$ 2.6 billion higher to US$ 356.4 billion. However, their best-selling item was currywurst – a sliced German sausage, covered with ketchup and curry. Volkswagen sold around 8.5 million currywurst sausages during 2024 – a 200k increase compared to twelve months earlier. VW is not the only carmaker doing a sideline – Peugeot has produced a wide range of salt, pepper and coffee grinders.

Volkswagen AG’s Audi posted that it will lose as many as 7.5k positions (about 14% of its German workforce), by 2029, as its margins begin to head south; these retrenchments will not impact actual factory workers.  The move to slash spending is to make the carmaker more competitive, with 2024 deliveries declining by 12%, as it struggled to gain traction in markets such as China. Over this five-year period, it plans to invest up to US$ 8.7 billion to introduce new cars to better compete in the US and China. By the end of 2026, the plan will also include introducing ten new models to the US market to try and regain the 14% slump in 2024 sales. It is also adding ten new plug-in hybrid vehicles, by the end of this year, amid slowing demand for its fully electric models. It has already started making its Audi Q6L e-tron electric SUVs in China, with local partner, FAW, and will make additional cars there for local customers from mid-2025. Its parent company, VW, is planning to ditch 35k from its payroll, whilst Porsche AG plans to cut 1.9k positions as it contends with muted luxury demand in the key Chinese market.

Having raised a further US$ 1.0 billion in new equity financing, Elon Musk’s social network X now has a market cap of some US$ 32.0 billion – almost the same as in 2022 when he took the company private. Some of the new financing could be used to pay down its remaining debt. At the time of the buyout its debt was at US$ 12.5 billion. It was not known who invested in this latest round but it appears that Elon Musk did participate. He is known for utilising the private markets to back some of his enterprises; these include SpaceX, which completed a tender offer valuing the startup at about US$ 350 billion, and xAI, which is said to have canvassed investors about raising fresh funding at a valuation of US$ 75 billion.

There are also concerns about the state of Tesla’s finances after reports that board members and top executives, have recently been offloading their shares, valued at over US$ 100 million,  including Elon Musk’s brother, Kimbal. Reports indicate that Tesla shares have lost more than 50% of their value, equivalent to more than US$ 800 billion off its market cap.

Google has agreed to settle a Californian lawsuit after a former employee, in 2011, said workers from Hispanic, Latino, Native American and other backgrounds started on lower salaries and job levels than their white and Asian counterparts. The tech giant agreed to pay US$ 28 million but rejected the allegations made against it. Earlier this year, Google joined a growing list of US firms that are abandoning commitments to principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in their recruitment policies. Meta, Amazon, Pepsi, McDonald’s, Walmart and others have also rolled back their DEI programmes.

On Tuesday, Apple posted that it would buy the Israeli-based Wiz for about US$ 32 billion which would be the tech giant’s biggest ever acquisition, as it starts to focus on cybersecurity in the cloud-computing race against Amazon.com and Microsoft. This deal will enable Google to solve fast-growing cybersecurity solutions that companies use to remove critical risks. Google has fallen behind Microsoft Azure for enterprise customers, and to catch up it needs to enhance a deeper suite of services, including security software. Alphabet shares have slumped 13% YTD, exacerbated by its heavy spending, as against the rise of China’s lower-cost DeepSeek. Only last year, Wiz rejected a US$ 23.0 billion bid by the US tech giant. Wiz has agreed to a termination fee of more than 10%, one of the highest fees in MA history. Under the Biden regime, there was a tightening up in antitrust policies, with the sector hoping for a marked easing on big MA regulation. However, Trump has already indicated that he would continue heavy scrutiny on Big Tech. Indeed, so as to head off regulatory concerns, Google has emphasised that Wiz would continue working with competing cloud platforms.

In the US, Starbucks has been hit with a damages award of US$ 50 million after a delivery driver needed skin grafts after being burned, when hot tea was spilled over him at a California drive-through. It is claimed that an employee did not wedge the scalding-hot tea firmly enough into a takeaway tray. The incident took place five years ago, with the prosecution lawyer noting that “this jury verdict is a critical step in holding Starbucks accountable for flagrant disregard for customer safety and failure to accept responsibility.” Starbucks said it sympathised with the victim but plans to lodge an appeal, believing the “the damages awarded to be excessive”.

Last Monday, US$ 5.72 billion was wiped off the market caps of Tesco, (down 15%), Sainsbury’s, (9%) and Marks & Spencer, (10%), after the new executive chairman of rival Asda had posted that the grocer was planning its biggest price cuts this century. Allan Leighton, who was appointed last November, was reported to have said that there was a “war chest” available to Asda and indicated he was prepared to “materially” forego profits in the short term to win back market share. He added that “we have a long way to go. We’re three months into what is going to be three years of really getting the basics of the business right and getting the business to outperform the rest of the industry on a like-for-like basis. That’s what restores our market share and profitability.”

Indeed, Leighton has history and knows the market inside out – and hence the Monday fall-out. In the early 1990s, he, and the current M&S chairman, Archie Norman, rescued Asda from collapse before selling the business to US giant Walmart in 1999. By 2003, Asda occupied the number two slot, taking that position from Sainsbury’s but after Walmart insisted on preserving margins, it was inevitable that the only way for the retailer was down, with Sainsbury’s soon returning to its former second position. By 2019, there was a merger attempt with Sainsbury’s which was soundly rejected by the competition watchdogs. Then their troubles really started with Walmart offering a majority shareholding to TDR Capital, founded by the billionaire brothers – Mohsin and Zuber Issa – who had made their fortunes from petrol forecourts. Asda then began to lose its market share, as it had taken on debt during the takeover and had lost its competitiveness. Tesco and Sainsbury’s made good of the opportunity, as did Aldi and Lidl to a lesser extent. After appointing several managers to run the business, unsuccessfully as it turned out, TDR Capital bought out in June last year to take a majority 67.5% stake while Mohsin Issa, who retains 22.5% of the business, relinquished the day-to-day running of the business.

Over the Christmas period, Asda was the worst-performing supermarket but within weeks it announced a ‘Big Jan Price Drop’ price-cutting campaign which saw average price reductions of 26% on selected products. Following that, the chief executive reintroduced the ‘Rollback’ price-cutting promotions he and Mr Norman introduced in the 1990s in a bid to revive the spirit of the old ‘That’s Asda Price’ campaigns, complete with shoppers patting their back pockets, backed by heavy newspaper and television advertising. Asda was able to punch above its weight by features such as big, well-targeted price cuts, snappy advertising and excellent product availability.  This latest initiative introduces a wider than normal price cutting exercise than has been seen in the past. He has also expended US$ 56 million on extending opening hours for some stores and has also bolstered his management team. Whether Leighton can spread the same magic he performed in the 1990s, over thirty years ago, remains debateable, as the retail environment has been turned on its head since then; even the likes of discounters Aldi and Lidl had a miniscule market presence.

Further problems that will hit the sector in the coming weeks is the 01 April increase in the national living wage and the 1.2% rise in employers’ national insurance contributions, to 15.0%, will spill over resulting in increased costs for the supermarkets, including payrolls and supplies; some of these costs will inevitably fall on the consumers. The British Retail Consortium estimates that food price inflation is picking up in staples such as eggs, milk and butter and that it will top 4.0% by the beginning of H2. Further problems will be the cost of implementing new recycling regulations due in October.

News this week that Santander bank plans to make seven hundred and fifty redundant and  close 21.4% of its branches which would leave three hundred and forty-nine branches open; of that total, thirty-six  will operate on reduced hours branches and eighteen will be “counter-free”. The bank justifies this move by claiming that financial transactions completed in branches have fallen 61% since 2019, while the use of internet banking to open accounts and conduct banking surged. With the closures, Santander said 93% of the UK population will continue to be within ten miles of a Santander branch, and that closing branches are all within one mile of the nearest Post Office. It also indicated that its customers can conduct banking in eleven thousand Post Office branches nationwide and one hundred and twelve banking hubs.

It is reported that Burger King UK, backed by the private equity firm Bridgepoint, is opening talks with lenders about major refinancing of US$ 51.67 million of borrowing and US$ 142.13 million borrowing capacity to help finance the delivery of its business plan.  The fast food eatery owns about 50% of its six hundred UK outlets, with the balance run by franchisees. Bridgepoint has already committed US$ 45 million of fresh equity, as part of Burger King UK’s business plan, as the company plans to open thirty new restaurants and remodel fifty of its current portfolio.

New research by Pagefield indicated that UK businesses are increasingly turning to the ME as a prime investment destination, that has seen the number of business leaders, with interest in the region, doubling over the past five years; more than 36% of them consider the ME as a key investment hub. Despite this increase, Europe maintains its leading position, whilst Asia is fast becoming a hot spot with interest 10% higher to 32%. Investment in the US remains steady, hovering around the 40% mark (42% current vs. 45% prospective investors), but new trade tariffs, under President Trump’s administration, pose uncertainty, potentially deterring future deals. A striking 83% of UK firms say the Government must do more to support international expansion, with nearly a third (31%) identifying Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as the single most important mechanism. Perhaps ministers could travel to Dubai to see how successful   UAE CEPAs (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements), have been.

A North Dakota court has ordered Greenpeace to pay Energy Transfer US$ 667 million in damages including for defamation, trespassing and conspiracy, in their role in the 2016-2017 protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline. The Texas-based pipeline company accused the advocacy group of paying protesters to disrupt construction of the pipeline unlawfully and spreading falsehoods about the controversial project. Greenpeace will appeal the decision, denying wrongdoing and calling the case an attack on free speech rights. T

It is reported that UAE developers have invested over US$ 3.0 billion in The Maldives, with the aim of transforming part of the iconic archipelago into luxury real estate resorts.  Although the country does not allow freehold ownership, per se, foreign investment in island property is permitted requiring approval of the Ministry of Tourism. The investment is expected to transform the island nation into a vibrant second-home market for the ultra-wealthy, with potential returns of 20% being touted.

In the first two months of the year, China’s value-added industrial output rose 5.9% on the year whilst industrial output, (which measures all enterprises with an annual turnover of US$ 2.8 million plus), came in 0.51% higher last month.

Last week, SW Queensland was cleaning up after ex-tropical cyclone Alfred, had wrought its damage. Now most of the population are in another battle – not against the elements but against the insurers. Probably for the first time in Australian political history, the leaders of both the Labour ruling party, Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, and the Coalition’s, Peter Dutton, both agreed that insurers are “ripping off” Australians. Unfortunately, neither party has announced a policy to address the issues in the insurance sector, but Albanese did confirm that his government will hold insurers to account as they begin to receive flood claims.

There are reports that flood cover has tripled in parts of SW Queensland in the past two years, and already the SW Regional Organisation of Councils has taken their concerns to the Insurance Council of Australia. One such family has seen their insurance premium from US$ 2.21k to US$ 8.54k and has decided to take the risk of no insurance because otherwise it would be unable to make house payments; many other families are in the same situation. Local member for Maranoa and Nationals leader David Littleproud said, “something’s not right”, and “I think insurance companies are having a lend of us.” He also queried that “we need to make sure these insurance companies are not gaming the system at regional Australia’s expense because they simply don’t see the mass market here for them.”To many, insurance costs have skyrocketed and now it has become a luxury expense, rather than a necessity. The Insurance Council of Australia, trying to justify their position, noted that the increasing cost of insurance was due to the “escalating costs of natural disasters, the increasing value of homes … [as well as] inflation pushing up building repair costs and the increasing cost of reinsurance”.

As expected, and for the second consecutive month, the US Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady, with its key lending rate at between 4.25% – 4.5%. Noting a marked rise in economic uncertainty, it did expect slower growth this year, along with higher inflation, driven by Trump’s trade tariffs which has also resulted in nervous financial markets. There are fears that such actions could hamper the Fed in its aims to bring inflation down to its long-term 2.0% target, while maintaining a healthy labour market. It also pencilled in a further two rate cuts before the end of 2025.

The EC has introduced new measures to sustain and expand Europe’s industrial capabilities in the steel and metals sectors. Its Steel and Metals Action Plan has targeted enhancing the sector’s competitiveness and securing its future. The two sectors are facing challenges arising from high energy costs, global competition, and the need for investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It has been estimated that the steel and metals industry is essential to the EU economy, directly and indirectly employing approximately 2.6 million people and contributing around US$ 86.57 billion to the bloc’s GDP.

The OECD’s 2025 growth projection has been cut by 0.2% to 3.1% commenting that “with higher barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending”. Its projection was mainly based on weaker expected growth in the US and the eurozone, with inflation “to be higher than previously expected”. It has cut US growth by 0.2% to 2.2% this year and 0.6% lower in 2026 at 1.6%; the eurozone growth projection is down 0.3% to 0.7% but will bounce back in 2026, reaching 1.2% next year. China continues to outshine most of its global peers with growth this year and in 2026, expected to come in at a healthy 4.8% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve has also downgraded its 2025 US forecast by 0.4% to 2.1%.

The Starmer administration received some good news for a change – latest data indicates that wage growth has remained strong; wages, excluding bonuses, grew in the quarter ending 31 January by 5.9%, the same percentage as in the previous quarter. However, wages – including bonuses – dipped to 5.8%, so that with official inflation at 3%, wage growth is still high and well above the rate of overall price rises. Since last July, wage increases have surpassed the level of inflation which could be a factor that there may be no immediate rate cuts over the coming months. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.4%, with the number of employees on payrolls “broadly flat”, with little growth seen over the last year. Rather distressingly, the ONS figures showed the economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was around 21.5% in the quarter.

Even though its own independent forecaster expected UK government borrowing, (the difference between spending and income from taxes), to be US$ 8.40, February’s borrowing came in 64.6% higher at US$ 13.83 billion. This will undoubtedly add further pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement next week where she will announce spending cuts to meet her self-imposed rules for the economy, which the Treasury reiterated were “non-negotiable”. Some consider that she may have to miss her self-imposed borrowing rules. Her two main rules are not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending; and to get debt falling as a share of the UK economic output by 2030. At her October Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility indicated Reeves had US$ 12.80 billion available to spend against her borrowing rules; next week it will probably reveal that the chancellor’s buffer has been “wiped out”.

With its operating company filing for bankruptcy protection, it seems that Forever 21, founded in 1984 by South Korean immigrants, is a step nearer to going out of business, even though the retailer posted that its stores and website in the US will remain open as it “begins its process of winding down”. In 2019, when it filed for bankruptcy for the first time, a group of investors ended up buying it through a JV. It also confirmed that it would conduct liquidation sales at its stores and that some or all of its assets would be sold in a court-supervised process. At its peak in 2016, of the eight hundred Forever 21 shops five hundred were located in the US. Its shops and e-commerce platforms, outside of the US are operated by other licence-holders and will not be affected by the bankruptcy protection filing. There is no doubt that starting forty years ago, its inexpensive, trendy clothes and accessories became increasingly popular with young people and over the next few decades, the brand became a competitor of fast-fashion giants such as Zara and H&M. However, it does seem that time has caught up with the retailer and that Forever 21 cannot be Forever Young!

It’s Getting Serious!                                                                       07 March 2025

With many experts pointing to a slight decline in the Dubai property market, it will come as a shock for them to see February data. The month saw a total of 16.1k transactions, (35.5% higher on the year) and a breakdown reveals those sales for:

              Villas                       3,679              99.7% higher      US$ 5.12 billion     

                   Apartments          11,364             21.3% higher       US$ 5.83 billion     

                    Plots                          608                74.7% higher       US$ 2.62 billion

                    Commercial                                   40.1% higher       US$ 0.33 billion  (US$ 423 per sq ft)

fäm Properties estimates that over the past five years, Dubai’s February property sales have moved 449% higher in value, to US$ 13.92 billion in 2025; and up 31.2% on the year. The most expensive property sold, at US$ 38 million, last month was a luxury villa in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, with an apartment sale in The Rings – 1 at Jumeirah Second selling for US$ 32 million. Prime sales accounted for 66% of total transactions and 62% by value. Properties below the US$ 277k threshold accounted for 25% of the market total, with those between US$ 272k-US$ 545k – 31% and above the US$ 1.36 million. Reports show that month-on month rental renewals posted a 30% drop in February – a probable indicator that there is a potential shift in the Dubai property landscape. It seems an increasing number of tenants are opting to own – and not continue to rent – their homes, more so because of the recent very high rental rates and the fact that demand is outpacing supply. There is no doubt that there is a shift to people making a longer-term commitment to stay in the emirate for longer.

Randy Fink, Asteco’s CEO, noted that, driven by positive market sentiment and strong demand, the UAE rental market recorded sustained growth throughout 2024. One of the consequences was that there was increased rental growth and activity in the lower and mid-end segments.  This in turn benefitted “affordable communities in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with the Northern Emirates, which attract tenants with their competitive rents, expanding supply of quality developments, improved infrastructure and enhanced accessibility. The flexibility of hybrid working arrangements has further supported this migration.”

According toSavills’ Andrew Cummings, “Dubai continues to be a standout destination for prime residential property, with capital values increasing 6.8% and rents growing by a record-breaking 23.5% in 2024. Population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals and family offices to the UAE are underpinning strong demand for residential property, particularly in the prime markets.” Over recent years, the emirate has become the leading global destination, eclipsing the likes of New York and Singapore, for ultra luxury homes (those valued at over US$ 10.0 million).  Last year, the population grew by 170k (4.65%) and in the first two month of 2025 by a similar 28k growth trend, (0.73%), to 3.853 million. Savills also noted that the average Dubai prime property is valued at US$ 930 per sq ft – much lower than other global city hotpots such as Hong Kong’s US$ 3,860, US$ 2,590 in New York, US$ 2,550 in Geneva, US$ 2,120 in Tokyo, and US$ 2,000 in Shanghai. Dubai is also in front when it comes to both capital value appreciation, (expected to almost reach 10.0% in 2025) and prime rental value which last year topped 23.5%, surpassing its 2016 market peak. Demand has strengthened by the advent of more ultra-high-net-worth individuals and high-net-worth individuals, “choosing Dubai because there are world-class schools and healthcare facilities, along with world class facilities and infrastructure in a safe and secure environment In addition, security and safety for the uber-rich is increasingly prominent.” Other demand sources include the traditional “big buyers” – the Indians – and  marked upticks from the UK, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, and “we are seeing a real influx on the European side at the moment, particularly due to short flight times, ease of access, ability to spend more time here, and running their businesses back home from Dubai.”

Cavendish Maxwell posted that rents in Dubai South and communities along Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road saw the emirate’s highest increases in 2024, rising by up to 30.0%. Overall, in the apartment sector, the three leaders were Dubai South, Al Furjan and Dubai Production City, moving 30%, 27% and 24% higher respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, but still in positive territory, were Palm Jumeirah, Al Habtoor City and Bluewaters Island, up by 5%, 3% and 1%. Not surprisingly, there were bigger increases noted in the villa sector including Palm Jumeirah, Al Furjan and Dubai Investments Park with rises of 52%, 39% and 38%. (Such impressive movements only occur when demand easily outpaces supply in an expanding market).

Asteco also noted that marked changes in rents happened when there is in a limited supply of units in established developments, an uptick in premium projects within average communities, and renovations or upgrades to existing properties. On the other side of the coin, communities with larger available inventories recorded no growth or marginal downward adjustments.  Cavendish Maxwell data indicated that average 2024 yields for apartments and villas came in on 7.4% and 5.1%, with the four leaders being Dubai Investments Park, International City, Dubai Production City and Downtown Jebel Ali at 10.3%, 9.4%, 8.6% and 8.6%.

Knight Frank estimated that, last year, the number of Dubai homes, available for sale, fell 30%, with a 52% prime reduction in home listings, as more end-users bought properties in the emirate to beat rising rentals. The agency added that “we have noted a rise in genuine end users, rather than speculative purchasers that have defined previous cycles”.

Knight Frank noted that the number of ultra-luxury homes, (those priced over US$ 10 million)available for sale declined 39.5% to 2.49k, over the last twelve months. The number of homes, available in the US$ 25 million-plus bracket, was down 75.3% to just eighty-six. The main driver is the influx of millionaires and ultra-high net worth individuals to the emirate, with the end result being a jump in per sq ft value to US$ 1,806 because of a massive decrease in inventory not able to meet the growing demand for luxury homes.  Last year, Dubai topped the global listing for sales of US$ 10 million plus homes with four hundred and thirty-five deals, of which a record one hundred and fifty-three were registered in Q4.

Aldar Properties’ third project in Dubai, (in partnership with Dubai Holdings), ‘The Wilds’, has seen phase 1 sold out, generating US$ 1.36 billion, through a series of local and international sales events. Phase 1 – including 3 B/R, 4 B/R and 5 B/R homes – comprised seven hundred and thirty-four villas, with 92% sold to expatriate residents and overseas buyers, with the three top nationalities being from India, China and the UK; of the total buyers, 52% were under the age of forty-five. The next phase will see a range of luxurious five- and six-bedroom mansions, designed by the renowned Lebanese architect Nabil Gholam, as well as one-to-three-bedroom apartments.

In its first year of operations, DHG Properties has already reached US$ 272 million in Gross Development Value, as it launches its second residential project in Dubai. After the success of Helvetia Residences in JVC last year, the Swiss developer has launched its yet-named US$ 82 million new project in Meydan, which comprises one hundred and ten apartments. It has also acquired a US$ 71 million prime plot on Dubai Islands for its third residential project in Dubai. Over the past thirty years, the company has completed more than three hundred projects in Europe, focussing on Switzerland and Serbia.

Cavendish Maxwell data indicates that there were 145k new off-plan unit launches in 2024, which averages out to almost four hundred units every day. The obvious main drivers have been the inflow of overseas developers and unprecedented local demand. The consultancy noted that “these impressive figures are not just the result of the recovery from the pandemic. They reflect a strong, stable property market that has seen consistent growth since 2022, driven by continued international demand from India, China and other ME countries in particular.” Emaar, Binghatti and Damac continue to lead the charge for the new launch market in terms of both units released and sales value in the off-plan segment. Mohammed Bin Rashid City saw the highest number of units delivered in 2024, with 5.3k new homes, followed by Jumeirah Village Circle (4.8k), Business Bay (2.8k), Al Furjan (2.6k) and Rukan, Dubailand (1.5k).

Cavendish Maxwell also posted that there are 243k new units, (roughly split 80;20, apartments:villas) in the pipeline, with that number probably enough to add stability to the sector and eventually end up with reduced price/rental increases. It expects that these units will all be delivered over the next three years. That is a lot of units considering that an estimated 46k were handed over last year. It notes that the five leading “supply locations” were Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Azizi Venice, Damac Lagoons and Arjan with 25.0k, 16.0k, 13.5k, 11.1k and 9.0k units to be delivered. Many other locations – including Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Hills, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle and Triangle, Al Furjan, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Town Square, and Studio City – are expected to receive at least 2k units.

Last month, it was reported that there had been a 30% decline in month-on-month rental renewals, with rates for both apartments and villas up 3.0% in Q4. There is a feeling that there is a definite move away from rentals to ownership due to a surge in rental rates as the population growth nears an annual 5.0%.

According to Knight Frank, the total number of homes under construction now stands at 303k units, equating to 60.6k per annum. Of these, 80% will be apartments, with the remainder being villas and branded residences. (According to Cavendish Maxwell, 243k new units were in the pipeline for delivery until the end of 2027, equating to 81k per annum with Jumeirah Village Circle leading the chart;). If 10% of launches fail and there is a 20% lag, the number of new units over the next three years will be 51k. (60.6k + 81.0k = 141.6k/2 = 70.8k*.9= 63.72k*.8= 51k). The past five years have never seen a figure over 45k.

According to UAE-based Elite Merit Real Estates, investments by Chinese and Russian nationals in Dubai’s luxury real estate market grew by 15% and 20% last year. The increase reflects the BRICS factor influencing foreign capital inflows, with Dubai’s tax policies, infrastructure, and geopolitical stability attracting investors.

Sotheby’s International Realty claim that a six-bedroom Jumeirah Bay Island sold for US$ 90 million is the most expensive residence on what is known as ‘Billionaire Island’; this easily surpasses the previous record of US$ 66 million.  Encompassing a 26.9k sq ft plot, it is one of just three plots on the tip of the island, but the only one that has uninterrupted views of the Burj Khalifa and Downtown skyline. The villa is encased in full-height glass walls and boasts 13 mt-high ceilings, with the home built with exquisite materials, including Taj Mahal Quartzite, Patagonian marble, and walnut wood veneer. Other features include a beachfront infinity pool and a private stretch of white-sand beach. Jumeirah Bay Island, with just one hundred and twenty-eight plots, remains one of the most coveted addresses in Dubai. Meanwhile an Emirates Hills villa has just sold for US$ 116 million, with a super-luxury home in Jumeirah Bay Island selling for US$ 90 million and beating the previous record of US$ 66 million for that location.

A four-bedroom luxury villa, with two garages and several luxurious amenities, including a show kitchen, a grease kitchen, two living rooms, a dining room and a dedicated office space, has been listed for an annual US$ 2.0 million rent. Located on Palm Jumeirah and encompassing a 15k sq ft plot, the Signature Villa also includes two staff rooms. The Palm Jumeirah villa boasts a sleek contemporary design, with Fendi furnishings, premium finishes, and top-tier appliances. Residents enjoy luxury amenities, including a private gym, home theatre, jacuzzi, sauna, infinity pool, and cold plunge pool. The property is listed on Penthouse.ae – an online platform powered by Metropolitan and the luxury division of Metropolitan Premium Properties – in collaboration with Savills. The agency adds that “The Signature Villa is an ideal offering for UHNWIs seeking a once-in-a-lifetime rental opportunity in one of the world’s most sought-after locations. This villa is a true masterpiece, designed to cater to the most discerning clientele who expect nothing less than perfection in every aspect of their lifestyle.” This current offering easily beats the US$ 1.09 million for a penthouse in Downtown Dubai and the US$ 1.0 million rental for a five-bedroom townhouse in Jumeirah Bay Island’s Villa Amalfi community.

A first-of-its kind UAE platform is expected to utilise a bidding system to transform the way high-end luxury properties are rented. In simple terms, Bidbayt will offer a range of properties including houses, offices, and warehouses in high-demand areas, with the highest bidder securing the property. Khaled Yaser Mir Abdullah Amiri, the CEO and co-founder of the app, noted that “there are a lot of premium properties that people are ready to pay above the market price for,” and that “we have created a place for such rentals to be auctioned off to the highest bidder in a convenient and easy format.” The new entity estimates that this app could boost rental income by up to 20% and reduce the time to lease a property by 30%, compared to traditional methods. Supported by the Mohammed Bin Rashid Establishment for SME Development (Dubai SME), the app was recently recognised as one of the top ten proptech companies by the Dubai Land Department. It has been approached by several government agencies and is in discussions to explore how to replace in-person auctions with Bidbayt’s app auctions. There is a nominal US$ 81 charge per listing and a 0.5% commission fee on finalised rental terms.

An agreement between Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority and Uber introduces Uber School to the emirate. Designed for schoolchildren, over the age of eight, and their families, it aims to offer an innovative, affordable transportation solution. Integrated into the Uber Teens accounts, this service offers enhanced safety features like real-time tracking, driver verification, and PIN authentication, along with safety, convenience, and cost savings. Real-Time Trip Tracking: Parents can monitor rides in real-time, receiving live updates, along with audio recordings to ensure peace of mind. Families can save up to 35% when booking a weekly trip package of ten or more rides.

In an agreement signed this week between the Roads and Transport Authority and Dubai Holding, US$ 1.63 billion will be invested for major upgrades to improve access to five Dubai Holding developments – Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Production City, Business Bay, Palm Jumeirah and International City. Bridges – both pedestrian and vehicle – will be developed and new roads built as part of the deal to improve access. Communities and projects also having infrastructure work carried out are:

• Dubai Islands
• Jumeirah Village Triangle
• Palm Gateway
• Al Furjan
• Jumeirah Park
• Arjan, Majan
• Liwan (Phase 1)
• Nad Al Hamar
• Villanova
• Serena

This investment is one of many in Dubai aiming to improve infrastructure. Last November, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid approved a five-year plan to transform the emirate’s road network; the twenty-one projects will encompass twelve residential, commercial and industrial areas, with six hundred and thirty-four km of new roads, costing US$ 1.0 billion. It will improve traffic flow to nineteen residential areas, including Al Barsha and Jumeirah; travel time is expected to be cut by 40%. A month earlier, it was announced that US$ 194 million would be spent to enhance traffic flow around the Trade Centre, with five main roads connecting it with SZR. It will include five bridges, spanning 5k mt in total, and turn it into a bridged intersection. Last month, Dubai’s Railbus project was announced at the World Governments Summit, with this new project complementing the existing metro and tram networks.

With the aim of supporting student-led solutions with global potential, GEMS Education, in partnership with Play Tech Centre, has introduced the ‘Next Billion Innovation’ US$ 1 million fund, initially only open to students at GEMS School of Research and Innovation, which opens its doors the next scholastic year in August. The chosen students will have access to incubator programmes and global startup ecosystems.

The Dubai International Financial Centre is planning to retrofit a building dedicated primarily to hedge fund startups looking to expand into the city. Set to open by the end of next month, the DIFC Hedge Funds Centre, with a 10k sq ft capacity, will cater to firms looking for short-term, plug-and-play offices, as they pilot their operations before scaling up.  It expects that up to thirty contracts will be signed by year-end. The two main source markets appear to be the US and the UK, with others from Singapore, Hong Kong and India. Housed in the former court building, tenants will have access to communal areas for networking, facility management and an environment already set up with desks, receptionists and trading capabilities. The majority of the seventy-five hedge funds in the DIFC manage more than US$ 1.0 billion in assets, so this move to smaller spinouts and independent launches is a strategic shift.

With Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, attributing some of its success to the impact of the effectiveness of the UAE’s economic diversification strategies, there was a 3.8% growth in real GDP, to US$ 360.22 billion, (AED 1.322 trillion), in the first nine months of 2024. With a 4.5% hike, the non-oil sectors now contribute US$ 268.94 billion, (or 74.66%) to the country’s GDP. In a bid to raise its GDP to US$ 817.44 billion, (AED 3.00 trillion), over the next seven years to 2033, the UAE is aiming to become the leading global hub for the new economy, focussing on innovation and global partnerships.

The Ministry of Investment posted that, in 2023, the total new and announced capital inflows of foundational Foreign Direct Investment reached US$ 16.0 billion – an indicator on UAE’s position, as a preferred destination for international investors. Meanwhile, there was a 35% surge of FDI inflows, to US$ 30.68 billion in 2023. The Minister of Economy noted that the UAE is committed to providing a competitive legislative environment for new economy sectors. The primary sectors driving foundational investment growth in the UAE include business services, software, and IT services, which have generated numerous job opportunities and attracted substantial capital inflows. The growth has resulted in a 7.5% increase in total jobs, created a 31% rise in announced projects, and a 37% surge in total announced foundational foreign direct investment inflows.

The new state-of-the-art South Container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port has been unveiled this week, as part of a US$ 800 million expansion by DP World and Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani). This expansion, under a thirty-year Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) agreement, will eventually result in a development, with a future capacity of five million TEUs, with additional ship-to-shore equipment to be deployed as demand grows. (The current expansion will see capacity more than double from 1.8 million TEUs to 4.0 million TEUs). This was DP World’s first concession outside the UAE and since 1999, the Jeddah terminal has played a crucial role in regional trade. This latest expansion cements Jeddah’s status as a trade gateway and supports Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of boosting trade.

2024 proved another record year for DP World, as it handled 1.3 million vehicles across its terminals – 53.6% higher on the year. 96% of the total were in Jebel Ali port, with the remainder to be found at Mina Al Hamriyah and Mina Rashid. China was the top trading partner, responsible for 25% of total volumes, followed by Japan, Korea and India. The Jebel Ali Free Zone Authority is home to almost a thousand automotive and spare parts companies. Jebel Ali Port has developed the world’s largest and most advanced car market, spanning twenty million sq ft, with a capacity of one million car equivalent units.  Last year, the country issued two hundred thousand new trade licences and can now boast that over 1.1 million companies and economic institutions are operating in its markets.

Both the UAE President HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and his counterpart Faustin-Archange Touadéra, witnessed the UAE and the Central African Republic signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), aimed at enhancing trade and investment opportunities. This pact is expected to increase market access for locally produced goods in both countries by reducing or eliminating tariffs, removing trade barriers, and boosting investment in key sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and technology. It also highlights the country’s growing trade network and its commitment to strengthening economic ties with African nations. Last year saw a 75% annual increase in bilateral trade to US$ 252 million. Over the past two years, the UAE has signed well over twenty CEPAs, all of which will help the country’s goal to boost non-oil trade to US$ 1.1 trillion by 2031.

A treble of higher profit margins, higher orders and higher pricing has seen the PMI data from S&P Global rising to its highest level in nine months. In contrast, the private sector witnessed costs move higher for the first time in seven months – perhaps a cautionary warning to the sector of what may happen for the rest of the year. Backlogged orders rose, as businesses were keen to source new work, but because of continuing intense competition, price increases have been capped, whilst business confidence going forward has been muted. As has been the case in recent months, the construction sector continues to stand out as the most active, with many new projects getting off the ground. Although some firms have increased their payroll, overall employment levels have remained flat, so that job creation continues to be subdued. Non-payments continue not only to be a nuisance but also a negative impact on many players’ cashflows in the private sector.

Airbus is looking to manufacture components for the A400M, a military transport aircraft, in the UAE, along with a training centre, with dedicated maintenance, repair, and overhaul facilities. According to Gabriel Sémelas, the President of Airbus in Africa and the ME, these developments are projected to solidify the UAE’s standing as a premier regional hub for aviation excellence, and this latest initiative will facilitate deeper integration of UAE-based entities, including EPI and Strata, into the global aerospace supply chain. Sémelas also added that job creation and skills development were cornerstones of Airbus’s industry localisation strategy, and that Airbus will implement robust targeted training and technical support initiatives.

It is reported that a major crypto exchange, Bitget, has plans to make Dubai a hub for its next phase of global expansion. As part of the process, it has applied for a licence from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.

The 14 February Don’t Worry, Be Happy blog detailed Salik’s impressive 2024 financials. This week, the toll-gate company has approved a US$ 0.042 share dividend, equating to a cumulative US$ 316 million payout. The firm’s current policy is to pay 100% of its net profit to dividends – in 2023, the dividend came in at just under US$ 281 million. Salik closed last year with two more tollgates in Dubai, bringing its total to ten. Ending the year with 25% more gates, a probable 5.0% 2025 hike in population, (and thus more cars  – and fines – on Dubai roads), extending revenue streams including barrier-free parking payment solutions at malls, the introduction of new variable usage rates, profits could easily rise to at least another 10% – and hence a potential 10% plus rise in dividend payments; revenue could come in over 25% higher on the year.

The DFM opened the week, on Monday 03 March, forty-four points lower, (0.8%), the previous fortnight, shed eighty-one points (1.8%), to close the trading week on 5,223 points by Friday 07 March 2025. Emaar Properties, US$ 0.23 lower the previous week, gained US$ 0.10, closing on US$ 3.75 by the end of the week. DEWA, Emirates NBD, DIB and DFM started the previous week on US$ 0.72, US$ 6.02 US$ 2.09 and US$ 0.39 and closed on US$ 0.69, US$ 5.65 US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.32. On 07 March, trading was at two hundred and thirty-seven million shares, with a value of US$ one hundred and fifty-three million dollars, compared to three hundred and sixty-five million shares, with a value of US$ five hundred and ninety million dollars on 28 February.

By Friday, 07 March 2025, Brent, US$ 1.79 lower (2.4%) the previous fortnight, shed US$ 2.60 (3.6%) to close on US$ 70.39. Gold, US$ 94 (3.2%) lower the previous week, gained US$ 62 (2.2%) to end the week’s trading at US$ 2,907 on 07 March 2025.

Even with Trump pressure to lower oil prices, OPEC+ will proceed with plans to revive halted oil production, after repeated delays, by increasing production by 138k bpd next month. This will be the first in a series of monthly hikes to add 2.2 million bpd by next year, following two years of postponements.  On the news, earlier in the week, Brent crude dropped 2.1% to US$ 71.63 and ended the week on US$ 70.39, struggling under the US$ 70 threshold. No surprise to see the Trump impact on prices. There is no doubt that Saudi – and other producing nations – wanted a price hike and it seems that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has compromised by pledging to invest US$ 600 billion in the US in a bid to strengthen the kingdom’s ties. Additionally, Washington’s ‘maximum pressure’ on Iranian exports could create a gap for other OPEC+ nations to fill, whilst sanctioned Russia may see more favourable conditions to ship barrels thanks to warmer relations with Trump.

Ahead of a meeting with crypto executives, Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve. The bitcoin used to finance this scheme is owned by the federal government which had been part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, as confirmed by the administration’s crypto czar, billionaire David Sacks. Bitcoin will be the primary asset used but the reserve will also include four other coins – ether, XRP, solana and cardano. Sacks has confirmed that the strategy is to maximise the value of its holdings, without offering details, but that no such bitcoin will not be sold. Part of the President’s executive order was to develop “budget-neutral strategies” for acquiring additional bitcoin that have no “incremental costs” on taxpayers. By 4pm UK time today, it was trading at US$ 88.5k.

After Nasdaq-listed VinFast had agreed funding of around US$ 1.0 billion from UAE’s Emirates Driving Co, and other investors, it is expecting to sign a similar deal with a Qatari investment firm. This latest move, with JTA Investment Qatar, could result in a ‘potential equity investment’, as well as a ‘strategic partnership’ to support VinFast’s global expansion and technological development. On top of that, it is interested in another Vingroup entity – its portfolio of hotels and resorts, amusement parks and entertainment clusters. JTA Investment Qatar offers financing solutions in sectors such as energy, technology, infrastructure and tourism. The Vietnamese EV maker currently has two cars in the UAE – the VF8 Plus and the VF8 Eco – with prices starting at US$ 47.5k; 97k vehicles have been sold to date. The new funding will obviously help VinFast bolster its financial position and move into new regional markets. Vingroup noted that any ‘collaboration will unlock significant opportunities for Vingroup and its subsidiaries to drive technological, infrastructural, and sustainable economic advancement in Vietnam, while establishing a foundation for international expansion.

There were red faces at Citibank last April when it was reported that the bank had mistakenly credited US$ 81 trillion to a customer’s account, when the actual amount should have been US$ 280. The error was reversed hours later after the transfer was missed by two employees and detected by a third employee ninety minutes after it was posted. The bank confirmed that no funds had left the bank, and it was disclosed as a “near miss” to the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Surprisingly, a total of ten near misses of US$ 1 billion or more occurred at Citi last year, according to the FT – down from thirteen registered in 2023.

In the biggest share sale on the Hong Kong bourse for more than four years, BYD Co raised US$ 5.6 billion, selling 129.8 million shares at US$ 43.12 each – a 7.8% discount on Monday’s closing price; the sale was several times over-subscribed. The company plans to use the fresh capital to expand its overseas business, invest in R&D, supplement its working capital and spend on general corporate purposes,  It is reported that Dubai’s Al-Futtaim Family Office participated as a strategic investor and it seems that the two firms plan to build on their successful collaboration and transition into a strategic partnership, focusing on areas including new EVs. Long-only investors and sovereign-wealth funds also bought shares in the deal. Last month, BYD sold 161% more on the year, at 318k pure electric and hybrid passenger vehicle, as it hit a record 67.0k in overseas sales. Interestingly, YTD its shares have jumped 46%, compared to Tesla declining 29%.

Last year, Seven & i, which operates some 85k global outlets, has once again had to fend off a take-over bid. Last year, it was a failed US$ 40 billion bid by Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard; this time, the Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is facing another takeover by its Canadian rival and has announced a package including a US$ 13.2-billion share buyback, and an IPO of its US SEI unit that operate its North American convenience store business. It also confirmed plans to buy back US$ 13.2 billion of its own shares using funds generated by the announced IPO and other restructuring measures. The company also announced the sale of its non-convenience-store business – comprising supermarkets, restaurants and other assets – to US private investment firm Bain Capital. It is reported that ACT has raised its offer to US$ 47.0 billion but this has already been rejected. A successful bid would merge the 7-Eleven, Circle K and other franchises to create a global convenience store behemoth.

Last Friday, a US court ruled that Riju Ravindran, a top official of Indian tech firm Byju, and the brother of the company’s founder, Byju Raveendran, had violated his fiduciary duty to lenders by wrongly hiding US$ 533 million. It is alleged that he had fraudulently transferred at least part of the money to a small hedge fund based in Miami to keep it out of lenders’ hands from them. The case was brought by creditors on a defaulted US$ 1.2 billion loan, with the judge siding with the creditors, entitling them to a financial damages award from Byju, with the amount to be determined in a separate hearing. The Indian firm is in deep trouble, fighting bankruptcy proceedings both in its home country and the US. It is not clear how much the firm is worth in India, with the US lenders hoping to liquidate several domestic education software companies that Byju’s purchased for US$ 820 million a few years ago and recoup outstanding balances.

With US$ 383 million owing, and requiring payment by year-end, as part of a multibillion-dollar loan package, India’s Oyo Hotels is speeding up plans for an initial public offering which could be valued at around US$ 5.0 billion. Creditors, including Mizuho Financial Group Inc., insist that founder Ritesh Agarwal pay off the dues, if the startup does not have an IPO by October. It seems that the thirty-one-year-old Indian borrowed US$ 2.2 billion in 2019, with a guarantee from backer SoftBank Group Corp.’s boss Masayoshi Son, to increase his stake in Oyo and gain more strategic control over a company he built in his teens. Three years later, the loan was restructured but Agarwal has yet to pay back the first tranche. SoftBank is its largest shareholder, with a stake of more than 40%, with Agarwal’s having more than 30%. It has fully recovered from the Covid impact and posted a small profit for the year ending 31 March 2024, as sales recovered. Late last year, Agarwal injected about US$ 95 million into Oyo, via his Singapore-based investment firm.

On Monday, Mixue Ice Cream and Tea went public on the Hong Kong bourse, having raised US$ 444 million in its IPO – their biggest listing of the year; on its début day, the Chinese bubble tea chain, with 45k outlets across China and in eleven other countries, and more outlets than McDonald’s 43k+ and Starbucks’ 40.6k, saw its shares soar more than 40%. The company, founded in 1997, sells ice creams and drinks for an average of US$ 0.82 and US$ 0.65. Unlike Starbucks, which operates more than half of its stores directly, almost all of Mixue’s outlets are run by franchisees. Recent bubble tea chains, including its smaller rival, Guming, and Chabaidao, that have gone public, have seen their market caps decline in first day trading.

Boots is going private, and will no longer be traded on New York’s Nasdaq, as it is being bought for US$ 24 million, by Sycamore Partners, a private equity firm, from Walgreens Boots Alliance; the retailer has been listed on a stock exchange for at least one hundred years. It is expected that shareholders will receive US$ 11.45 per share, with the possibility of a further US$ 3.00, if other business sale conditions are met. In 2022, a sell-off of the Boots arm of the business from the Walgreens Boots Alliance was abandoned, and the following year, it announced the closure of three hundred outlets. Boots was acquired by Walgreens in 2014, and since 2015 it has lost 90% of its market cap.

Poland-based Pepco Group confirmed it was considering the sale of  Poundland, the discount retail chain, with the owner noting that it faces an “increasingly challenging” retail landscape in the UK, and that it was examining all options for the eight hundred and twenty-five-strong chain, including a sale. Although its revenue stream came in at over US$ 2.0 billion, Pepco revealed a US$ 828 million charge to Poundland, with problems being exacerbated by the government’s hikes to employer national insurance contributions from April. Its chief executive, Stephan Borchert, confirmed, “there are definitely interested parties for this business.”

November saw the UK experiencing a shortage of Guinness; this month it is the shortage of bananas, down to bad weather conditions in supply countries such as Columbia, Costa Rica and Ecuador. Shoppers have been left disappointed after several Tesco stores ran out of bananas, one of their best-selling items. One interesting fact is that consumers buy over five million bananas a year of which 28%, 1.4 million, are wasted.

Barclays’ latest IT outages in the UK will cost the banker up to US$ 13 million in compensation payments to its customers for “inconvenience or distress”, caused by several days of disruption; this is expected to be the largest amount of compensation of any bank in the past two years.  The glitch occurred towards the end of January. The crisis happened to coincide with payday for many and the deadline for self-assessment tax returns. The Treasury Committee of MPs was told that the problem was caused by “severe degradation” in the performance of their mainframe computer, which resulted in the failure of the bank’s online payments. The committee had approached the top nine banks and building societies for their comments and outage details. It was found that, over the previous two years, there had been one hundred and fifty-eight individual IT failures, leading to eight hundred and three hours of unplanned outages. NatWest and HSBC recorded the longest outages, at one hundred and ninety-four hours and one hundred and seventy-six hours of failure.

At the week-long National People’s Congress, President Xi Jinping set a 2025 economic target growth of “around 5%”, whilst also pledging to pump billions of dollars into its ailing economy, with further weakness inevitable on the back of Trump tariffs. The Chinese administration has been impacted by a quadruple whammy of low consumption, an ongoing, (but not going away) property crisis, sticky unemployment and a further 10% Trump tariff, following a similar levy last month. Almost immediately, Chinese retaliation saw 10%-15% tariffs on certain agricultural imports from the US, and it is estimated that continuing tariffs would result in Chinese exports – which had accounted for  a nearly one trillion dollar trade surplus – declining by up to a third; it will also see it difficult for China to post a 5% growth in 2025,  (having hit that number over the past two years) and may have to drive up domestic spending to get anywhere near the target figure.

At the Congress, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said consumption has been sluggish and pledged to “vigorously boost” household demand, noting that “domestically, the foundation for China’s sustained economic recovery and growth is not strong enough.” Beijing has already rolled out schemes to encourage its people to spend more, including allowing them to trade in and replace consumer goods like kitchen appliances, cars, phones and electronic devices. It will also see the government enriching the ordinary Chinese people’s pockets, with the aim of cutting the country’s reliance on exports and investment. It will also create more than twelve million jobs in cities, setting a target for urban unemployment at around 5.5% for 2025. It also plans to issue US$ 179 billion worth of T-Bonds, to help fund its stimulus measures, and allow local governments a 12.8% hike  to US$ 605.8 billion in the amount they can borrow. Even after trying to keep its fiscal deficit – the difference between the government’s spending and revenue – at below 3.0%, it raised this by 1.0% to 4.0% of GDP, the highest level in decades.

Donald Trump may be happy to hear that a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holding company has agreed to sell most of its stake in two key ports, located at either end of the eighty-two km Panama Canal, to a group led by US investment firm BlackRock, and including Switzerland’s Terminal Investment Limited; the sum involved is in the region of US$ 22.8 billion. The deal includes a total of forty-three ports in twenty-three countries around the world, including the two canal terminals. Over recent weeks, Trump has made several arguments for retaking control of the canal and the surrounding area, including Chinese influence being a national security threat, the fact that US investment in the initial building of the canal justifies taking back control, and that US ships are being charged too much for using the waterway. Earlier in the year, the US President had complained that the major shipping route was under Chinese control and that his country should take control of it. Although not directly owned by the Chinese government, it operates under Chinese financial laws.

Because of his relationship with that scumbag, Jeffrey Epstein, former Barclays boss Jes Staley has begun a legal bid to overturn a 2023 Financial Conduct Authority ban from the UK’s financial services industry, along with a US$ 2.3 million fine; it had concluded that Staley had made misleading statements about his relationship with the disgraced financier in correspondence with the watchdog. (He also missed out on pay and bonus awards of US$ 23 million, after he left Barclays under a cloud). The banker claims that he had a “close professional relationship” with Epstein but denies they were friends. Their association dates back to a time when Epstein was a client of JPMorgan Chase’s private bank, which Staley headed before taking the role at Barclays in 2015.; two years earlier, he had left J.P. Morgan after more than thirty years. The ban by the FCA was based on two misleading statements over their relationship, namely over how close they were and that Mr Staley’s last contact with Epstein was “well before he joined Barclays in 2015”. The FCA’s ruling related to the contents of a letter sent by the then Barclays chairman in 2019, but reviewed by him, which summarised the depth of the two men’s ties in response to a request for “assurance” from the regulator. The FCA’s case includes more than 1k emails between the pair, some provided by JPMorgan and others from Epstein’s estate, in which Staley was said to have described their friendship as “profound” and referred to Epstein as “family”. Today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. told British regulators it believed Jes Staley might have been involved in Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes, shortly before the watchdog opened a formal investigation into the former Barclays Plc boss in 2019.

Defence companies have initially benefitted from the current Ukrainian debacle, as their market caps skyrocketed on the bourses of UK and Europe in Monday’s trading. The FTS 100 hit new record highs, as arms maker BAE Systems saw its share price rise as much as 17.5%, with its market cap climbing by US$ 7.53 billion; in comparison, Rolls Royce nudged up 6.0%.  Meanwhile, on the FTSE 250, there were marked increases, of 10.3% and 9.3%, in the share values of defence technology company QinetiQ and defence support business Babcock International. On the European bourses, shares of Germany’s largest defence company Rheinmetall jumped 18% while Italy’s Leonardo was up 15%. All this came after European leaders met in London a day earlier where UK Prime Minister Starmer announced a loan to Ukraine and a US$ 2.0 billion deal for a Belfast factory to supply missiles for the country’s fight against Russia; the UK had earlier announced it would increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP. On top of that, Chancellor Rachel Reeves had also announced an extra US$ 2.88 billion for the Ukrainian war effort, courtesy of Russian funds, frozen since the start of the full-scale war in February 2022.

In February, the US economy added 151k new jobs, with a marginal 0.1% uptick in unemployment to 4.1%. Donald Trump’s government cuts were the main driver for federal employment dipping 10k last month. Hiring was driven by healthcare and financial firms, with manufacturing sector adding 10k jobs. Although the numbers were largely in line with expectations, it does point that the labour market is indeed cooling. The buoyancy of the labour market to date, with a long running growth trend, surprised many analysts especially in an environment of price increases and high interest rates. Future months, with Donald Trump pulling the strings, will prove to be interesting reading, as he noted, “I think the labour market’s going to be fantastic but it’s going to have high-paying manufacturing jobs as opposed to government jobs.”

Citing that time has run out, on Monday Donald Trump confirmed that he was moving forward to levy 25%, starting the following day, 04 March on goods imported from Canada and Mexico; an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is also expected to come into force. All three countries have also said they will retaliate against the US tariffs, raising the prospect of a widening trade war. Canada plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against US imports of US$ 155 billion, with the first tranche of US$ 30 billion ready immediately to be levied on everyday goods like pasta, clothing and perfume. Beijing had already prepared countermeasures, announcing that it would slap fresh tariffs on a range of agricultural imports from the US. Furthermore, the Finance Ministry confirmed that “additional 15% tariffs will be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton,” and that “additional 10% tariffs will be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products”. President Trump has also announced a 25% charge on all steel and aluminium imports, which is meant to come into effect on 12 March. In addition, he has threatened to impose custom “reciprocal” tariffs on individual countries, as well as 25% tariffs on the EU. For the time being the UK has avoided any tariffs. All three major US indexes fell on Monday – the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 1.4%, the S&P 500 1.75% and the Nasdaq 2.6%. No doubt global trade is in for a rocky ride!

If Trump’s tariffs aim is to rebuild and modernise US manufacturing, then it will take some time to see any positive results – capex items, such as new factories, could take years to build. Thus, in the short-term, the consequences will be higher consumer costs (someone has to bear the extra tariff costs), rising inflation, as prices move north, and lower economic activity, at a time when the US economy could already be in contraction. In recent weeks, high-frequency measures of activity have suggested the US economy is facing a very sharp slowdown. Indeed, the “GDPNow” Nowcast measure from the Atlanta Fed recently pointed to the US economy contracting at an annualised rate of 2.8% in Q1.

On 26 March, Rachel Reeves is set to release her spring statement and it seems that she will announce several billion pounds in spending cuts, including from the welfare budget; this move is almost inevitable so that the Chancellor can come within her borrowing limit that includes maintaining a US$ 12.90 billion (GBP 10.00 billion) headroom; the rise in borrowing costs, with inflation hitting a ten-month 3.0% high in January, has eroded this balance to almost nil. So as to maintain her self-imposed fiscal rules, she cannot borrow for day-to-day spending, leaving spending cuts as one of her only options. On Wednesday, Treasury advised the Office of Budget Responsibility of the proposed cuts, ahead of it providing a financial forecast on the same day as the spring statement. Accordingly, she will have to consider spending cuts and reports indicate that the Starmer administration will be looking at a four-point plan – welfare cuts, planning reforms, slashing red tape and reducing the number of Whitehall mandarins. To date, the Prime Minister has refused to say whether further tax rises, or spending cuts, would be imposed. The way the government finances are, the Chancellor has to reduce the amount the government borrows – but it appears that because she has already borrowed up to her limit, any further borrowing will be at the expense of having to cut benefits, not helped by worse growth than expected. Basically, for every billion of additional borrowing that the OBR thinks she is going to need, she will have to utilise spending cuts, almost certainly including welfare cuts. The fundamentals are not looking good, and now It’s Getting Serious!