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Following a visit by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, it has been announced that the emirate’s latest tourist attraction – the Dubai Frame – will open on 31 December. Located in Zabeel Park, it has two 150 mt high structures, linked by a 93 mt wide bridge from which there are views of “old” Dubai (including Deira and Karama) and “new” Dubai (such as Burj Khalifa and Emirates Towers) from different vantage points.

The importance of the hospitality sector to Dubai’s economy cannot be underestimated, with STR reporting that the emirate accounts for 30.3% (29.2k keys) of all hotel rooms in development in the MENA region. With 95 hotels in the pipeline and the government’s policy to boost travel and tourism, the World Travel and Tourism Council’s forecast that the sector will top US$ 70 billion over the next decade looks a distinct possibility. Furthermore, the 12.4% contribution that the sector currently contributes to the country’s GDP is set to increase.

The Dubai Shopping Festival, running from 26 December to 27 January, started with a massive twelve-hour Super Sale on Tuesday that saw shopping centres packed and the resultant gridlock around many malls. There where discounts of between 25% – 90% offered on goods for sale at hundreds of shops in MoE, and five City Centres – Al Shindagha, Barsha, Deira, Me’aisem and Mirdiff.

Away from the retail side, Damac Properties is offering a new Tesla car to its buyers of selected property ranges from their portfolio during the 31-day extravaganza. Since its inception, the property developer has become synonymous with such promotional “giveaways” that in the past have included yachts, a jet and even a private Caribbean island.

Arabtec has been awarded a US$ 279 million Dubai Properties’ contract for construction work of villas and townhouses. The phases of La Quinta and Amaranta, located off Emirates Road, are expected to be completed by Q2 2020.

The region’s first Banyan Tree Residences is to be built at a cost of US$ 68 million in Dubai on a large island overlooking the Emirates and Montgomerie golf courses. The 110k sq ft, 32-storey project, housing 244 residences (ranging from 1- 4 B/R) and three full-floor penthouses, will be completed by Q3 2019. The developer, Sweid & Sweid, has appointed Civilco Civil Engineering & Contracting as lead contractor.

As part of its US$ 774 million portfolio, Danube Properties has awarded five separate construction contracts in 2017 totalling US$ 104 million, including its US$ 60 million, 599-unit Miraclz Tower at Arkan due for completion within two years. Another contract of US$ 61 million has been signed for the main construction of the Resortz project; slated for completion by Q2 2019, it will house 419 apartments and 25 retail outlets.

The 25-year old UAE-based Rotana is planning a further 14 hotels next year to add to its current portfolio of 38 properties, with a further 48 under various stages of development. Six of the hotels opening next year will be in the UAE with the remaining nine set for Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (3), Tanzania and Turkey (2).

According to the OECD, the UAE is officially the world’s largest developmental aid donor relative to its national income, donating 1.21% of its GDP, equivalent to US$ 4.3 billion. Only two other countries recorded aid of over 1% of their GDP – Norway (1.12%) and Luxembourg (1.0%).

November consumer prices in the UAE rose 1.73%, year on year, driven by price hikes in food/beverages (1.9%), tobacco (70% – because of the October introduction of excise duty) and transportation – 3.5%.

UAE fuel prices will be higher in January with Special 95 up US$ 0.022 (3.9%) to US$ 0.600 per litre, as diesel prices jump 5.9% to US$ 0.635. Special 95 started the year at US$ 0.490, so has risen 16.9% in 2017 – almost in synch with Brent crude which is up 16.4% from its 01 January opening of US$ 56.82.

Launched last March, Emirates NBD REIT has bought a shopping centre in Silicon Oasis from Souq Extra in a US$ 57 million deal. Rental income from the 42 retail outlets, comprising 36k sq ft gross leasable area, is guaranteed for two years. It has already bought The Edge office building in DIC, South View School in Remraam Community and Uninest student accommodation in Dubailand.

Troubled developer, Union Properties, is planning a 100% IPO later next year involving its facilities management unit, ServeU. The money raised will be used to boost its investment portfolio  and operations, coming after a turbulent 2017 that has seen extensive board and senior management changes and losses of US$ 627 million (after a US$ 763 million write down in the value of assets) in Q2 and US$ 12 million in Q3.

Abraaj Group is reportedly in preliminary discussions to acquire a minority stake in Turkish drug maker, Sanovel Ilac Sanayi & Ticaret. The Dubai-based private equity firm, which manages a US$ 13.6 billion portfolio of assets, has a dedicated US$ 536 million fund specifically for Turkish investments; so far this year, it has made two outlays in the country – a 21% stake in logistics company Netlog Lojistik Hizmetleri and a minority share in online travel agent Biletall.com.

The DFM opened on Sunday (24 December), at 3365 and was 5 points up by Thursday, 28 December, to close at 3370. Emaar Properties was US$ 0.05 lower at US$ 1.89, with Arabtec up US$ 0.01 at US$ 0.65.  Volumes nudged higher at 572 million shares traded on Thursday, valued at US$ 206 million (compared to 431 million shares traded at US$ 131 million the previous Thursday – 21 December). As the bourse will open next week on 02 January, Thursday was the last trading day of 2017. From its 01 January opening, and having gained 12.06% in the previous year, the DFM had a lacklustre year, shedding 4.56% in value reflected by a US$ 0.05 fall in Emaar shares; because of a mid-year capital restructuring programme, Arabtec’s value was US$ 0.29 higher from its January opening of US$ 0.36.

By Thursday, Brent Crude traded US$ 2.08 (3.3%) higher at US$ 64.78, with gold heading the same direction – up 1.0% to US$ 1,270 by 28 December 2017.

The booming equity markets have been the catalyst for a 23% surge, equating to US$ 1 trillion, in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index – a ranking of the world’s richest 500 people. The biggest winner appears to be Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, who saw his fortune jump over 52% to US$ 99.6 billion, replacing Bill Gates, with only US$ 91.3 billion.

The owner of the Volvo Car Group, Geely Holding, is set to spend US$ 3.3 billion to buy an 8.2% stake in the truck maker, AB Volvo. The Chinese company has no plans to combine the two Swedish companies, which were hived off some twenty years ago. It does hope to benefit because AB Volvo owns 45% of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, a major Chinese truck maker, and also has a significant construction equipment business in the country. Geely also owns the company that makes Lotus and London’s black cabs.

Despite well documented delivery delays on its car models – and a large number of back orders and only a relatively few deliveries – Tesla has announced plans for an electric pick-up model; this comes after founder Elon Musk indicated that the open-backed truck would be on the same lines as Model Y, a yet to be detailed car, but probably based on Tesla’s original Model 3. The company also has plans for a sports car range and a line in articulated lorries. However, despite all the hype, the fact is that the company has problems – it is still making losses and it may have to find extra funds in 2018 to finance operations.

Uber has agreed to sell a 20% stake in the company to a consortium led by Japan’s SoftBank for a reported US$ 9.6 billion. It has been a troubled year for the ride-hailing company beset by various scandals – and these have had a negative impact on its valuation that has seemingly fallen 30.5% to US$ 48 billion during the course of 2017. It is expected that this latest sale of shares will benefit the company, after numerous setbacks, and see the share value move north again.

In the run up to Christmas, there was some good news and bad news for Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook, who has seen the company’s market value more than triple since he took over the reins from Steve Jobs in 2011; his 2017 remuneration has jumped 74% to US$ 102 million. However, the tech giant is facing at least eight class actions in the US, after admitting that it had developed software to slow down its old iPhones. Although it owned up to “downclocking” older models and apologised for any slowdown, it has refuted claims that it “intentionally degraded” the user experience”, with the aim of encouraging customers to upgrade to newer models.

Having filed for bankruptcy in September, Toys “R” Us Inc is set to close over one hundred  of its 879 US shops, with Christmas sales 15% lower than in 2016. Any decline in the retailer’s business has a knock-on effect on its major suppliers and subsequently Mattel Inc (the maker of Barbie and Fisher-Price) and Hasbro have been badly hit with their share values declining this week by 4.5% and 3.2% respectively. In the UK, 26 stores are expected to close, with the company focusing more on the smaller distribution units and on-line sales.

This year will not be a good year for many South Korean companies none moreso than Hyundai that is looking at a  67% slump in 2017 profit to US$ 44 million, driven by a raft of drivers including the lacklustre performance of Hyundai Heavy Metals. The world’s largest shipbuilder by sales announced plans to raise US$ 1.2 billion through a new share issue which in turn will dilute the value for existing shareholders. Consequently its share value fell by more than 25% which in turn saw the main stock market down 29%.  Slowing global demand and increased Chinese competition are two factors that have led to a global industry slump.

Foxy Bingo owner GVC is to acquire leading bookmaker, Ladbroke Coral, in a cash and share deal, valued at US$ 5.2 billion; GVC will own 53.5% of the new entity. This comes a year after Ladbrokes was involved in a US$ 3.0 billion merger with Gala Coral.

More of the same news from the UK – with Q3 average weekly wages up 2.3%, year on year but still not keeping up with the November inflation rate of 3.1%. Meanwhile consumer spending over the period – at 1% – was at its lowest rate in over five years. The fact that household expenditure has exceeded income over the past four quarters indicates that savings are being used to fund this expenditure. However, Q3’s 0.4% growth was better than the two previous quarters’ 0.3% and was a slap in the face for all the doomsayers who had forecast that the economy would fall off a cliff after Brexit and also that sterling would be on parity with the greenback.

Boxing Day sales in the UK have continued the same trend of recent times – shopping centres and High Streets witnessed shop visits down 4.5%, whilst internet sales were expected to grow by more than last year’s 6.2%. Two other reasons cited were the fact that Black Friday sales have become increasingly important, changing traditional shopping habits, and many retailers have started discounting around that time in late November rather than waiting for Boxing Day – as in the past.

In the first day of trading after the Christmas break, the FTSE 100 hit record highs during Wednesday trading to reach 7,633 before closing the day at 7,621 – 6.9% higher YTD from its 01 January opening of 7,142. The latest rally comes on the back of rising commodity prices, especially copper, that has seen gains for mining companies, and a general upturn in global trade.

With news that revenue from the recently introduced GST has slowed, the Indian government is looking to borrow US$ 7.8 billion to cover any shortfall and maintain spending at current rates. Asia’s third largest economy, at US$ 2.3 trillion, is targeting a budget deficit of 3.2% of GDP (its lowest level in a decade) by March year end but Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi has a problem. Normally he would just cut back on spending to meet the target but because of a slowing economy, not helped by last year’s withdrawal of high denominated bank notes, he is concerned not to slow expenditure any further, so as not to stymie growth.

Bitcoin, created anonymously in 2009, continues to confound those critics who proclaim its bubble has been well and truly deflated. The fact is that as of today, 28 December, its value stands at US$ 14.6k, compared to just US$ 1 k at the beginning of the year. In 2016, it was the world’s best performing currency for the second year in a row, having increased by 120%. It has always traded with volatility – in 2013 it increased tenfold to US$ 1.15k in just two months but the following year sank to under US$ 0.4k, following a major hack. Even then the same doomsayers were sure that bitcoin was dead and buried. Maybe they are the same people who, last January, predicted oil at US$ 20 and sterling trading at parity with the greenback! It’s about time they started beating to a Different Drum!

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum approved a 19.5% rise in Dubai’s 2018 budget to a record US$ 15.4 billion; spending on infrastructure (for Expo 2020 and other projects) has seen a 46.5% hike, accounting for 21.0% of the total. Other increases saw general, administrative, grant and support spending 11.5% higher at US$ 6.5 billion and state salaries moving 10% higher to US$ 4.6 billion (as an additional 3.1k will be added to the public sector). This budget will show a US$ 1.7 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.56% of GDP) as revenues are expected to be 12% higher at US$ 13.7 billion. The three main contributors will be fees (US$ 9.8 billion), taxes (US$ 2.9 billion) and government investments (US$ 0.3 billion).

At the same time, the RTA has announced a US$ 872 million investment in projects, including the Red Line metro extension from Nakheel Harbour and Towers Station to the Expo 2020 site.

Azizi Developments has completed and handed over two of its Al Furjan projects – the US$ 65 million, 316-unit Candace Acacia and the US$ 60 million, 227 unit Candace Aster.

Dar Al Arkan is to build a 38-storey residential building on the Dubai Water Canal which will be designed by Roberto Cavalli. The I Love Florence Tower will be the Saudi Arabian company’s first foray in the Dubai market.

Gemini Property Developers has started construction on the 29-storey Symphony Tower in Business Bay. It will house 455 varying-sized apartments and will be the developer’s second luxury tower after its September launch of Splendor in Sobha Hartland community.

AccorHotels is planning a 434-key hotel in the One Central development area that is slated to open in 2020. The 25hours Hotel for Dubai is the first of the 12-year brand in the region and follows six properties already operating in Germany and Austria, with three more – in Cologne, Düsseldorf and Paris – due to open in 2018.

With the likes of Quorvus Collection, Radisson and Country Inns & Suites By Carlson in its 1.4k property, 18k room-portfolio, Carlson Rezidor Hotel Group is planning a 25% hike in hotel numbers to 1.8k and rooms to over 20k. The group, acquired by China’s HNA Group last December, is planning a further four next year in the UAE and seven more in 2019.

Dubai’s newest attraction, the US$ 270 million Dubai Safari Park had its soft opening this week and is a welcome replacement for the 50 year old Dubai Zoo in Jumeirah. The park, covering 119 hectares, is located in Al Warqaa 5.

Ably assisted by major exhibitions, including the Dubai Airshow, and the onset of winter weather, STR reported that Dubai November hotel demand rose 2.7% to record highs; however, earnings remained disappointing as average room rates were lower at US$ 205 and occupancy levels dipped 2.7% to 87.0%, as supply outstripped demand with Q2 posting a 3.2% increase of 2.5k rooms to a 80.4k total. It is expected that over the next two years, supply will increase by 16.2% to 93.4k and, in 2019, by 21.4% to 113.4k.

Business in Dubai Investment Park continues to grow as it reports a 36% hike, over the past nine months, in sub-leasing contracts. Of this total, 68% related to existing sub-tenants and the balance to new contracts; furthermore, warehousing, at 46%, and staff accommodation (35%) accounted for 81% of the business.

Having opened its first regional data centre in Dubai last year, in a 50:50 tie up with Meraas Holding, China’s Alibaba will open a second facility in 2018. With digital transformation rapidly growing, the need for more centres is obvious.  On a global scale, it is thought that Alibaba ranks third behind Amazon and Microsoft in the public cloud services market.

Dubai’s Souq has launched Amazon Global Store that will allow customers access to over one million products, supplementing the local online marketplace’s range, including apparel and fashion. In March, Amazon bought the Dubai site for a reported US$ 650 million and, in time, there will be many more items available for Dubai customers.

It is reported that Emaar Properties, in collaboration with Dubai Properties is in discussions with banks regarding a US$ 1.1 billion loan package for several projects including a shopping mall and a tower. Also this week and, as expected, the Emaar board has approved a US$ 1.1 billion dividend as a result of the proceeds from the recent Emaar Development IPO. 75% will be paid out in January and the balance following the AGM ion April.

Abraaj Capital was involved in two deals this week. It has acquired a minority stake in Tunisie Telecom, that country’s largest operator, from Emirates International Telecommunications. No financial details or the share size have been made available but it will represent the largest ever private equity investment in Tunisia and brings the Dubai-based firm’s number of investments there to ten. It had earlier paid US$ 14 million for a minority share in Biletall, a Turkish online travel agency.

The DFM opened on Sunday (10 December), at 3393 and was 38 points (1.1%) off to close on Thursday, 14 December, at 3355. Emaar Properties was US$ 0.17 lower at US$ 1.89, with Arabtec flat at US$ 0.65.  Since 01 November, the bourse has lost 209 points (5.9%) from its then opening of 3564 with both Emaar Properties and Arabtec losing ground – US$ 0.38 and US$ 0.15 respectively.

By Thursday, Brent Crude closed lower at US$ 62.70, with gold heading the same direction to US$ 1,257 by 14 December 2017.

Abu Dhabi’s recently opened US$ 1 billion Louvre gallery is now home to a US$ 450 million painting – Da Vinci’s painting of Christ. The work of art was sold at a record price in New York and the emirate’s Department of Culture and Tourism has confirmed that it had acquired it, although earlier reports indicated that the buyer was a Saudi Prince.

There have been two major deals involving UK shopping centres. Last week, Hammerson, the owner of Birmingham’s Bullring made a US$ 4.6 billion offer to buy Intu which has Manchester’s Arndale Centre in its portfolio. Now the French property group Unibail-Rodamco is planning to spend US$ 24.7 billion to acquire the Australian Westfield Corporation which owns 35 shopping centres in the UK and US.

Just as John Leahy – the man responsible for the sale of more than 16k aircraft, valued at over US$ 1 billion – Airbus has been rocked by news that both their chief executive and COO will be leaving; Tom Enders will not seek reelection in 2019 and Fabrice Bregier will stand down in February. This seems to be the culmination of an internal power struggle taking place at the same as the European manufacturer is losing ground to arch rival Boeing.

Walt Disney has agreed to buy the bulk of 21st Century Fox’s business, including its film and television studios, regional sports network and 39% of the satellite broadcaster, Sky. Fox, run by 86-year old Rupert Murdoch, will form a news-focused company with its remaining assets but, along with other Fox shareholders, will also acquire 25% of the enlarged Disney group. The US$ 52.4 billion mega deal will also see Disney assume US$ 13.7 billion of Fox’s debt. The sale will finally give Disney access to millions of new customers and it can now complete with the likes of Amazon, Apple and Google on a level media business playing field.

It is reported that expat remittances out of the country continues to expand. One of the top four receiving countries, from the UAE, is Pakistan and interestingly it is that country’s second main source of income after exports. About half of its US$ 20 billion remittances are derived from the Gulf. On Monday, the rupee lost 5% in value after the Central Bank withdrew support of the currency and with this decline the value of remittances is expected to increase in the coming days.

Alibaba is again investing in the Indian e-commerce sector, funding 71.4% of a US$ 280 million start-up in the country’s largest online supermarket, Bigbasket. It had earlier been in investment discussions with Amazon but it now seems that the Chinese e-commerce giant is the Bangalore-based grocery’s favoured suiter. Alibaba has already invested in the Indian digital payment company, One97 Communications Ltd, whilst Amazon’s Jeff Bezos has vowed to invest US$ 5 billion in the country

November data sees China’s exports surprising the market by an impressive 12.3% year on year hike (compared to market expectations of 5.9%). On the other hand, imports were up 17.7%, with the market expecting 13.0%, resulting in a US$ 40.2 billion trade surplus.

As Japan’s Q3 GDP has been seasonally adjusted to 0.7%, compared to 0.6% in the previous quarter, GDP on an annual basis is now at 2.5% – well up on previous expectations of 1.5%. The once-flagging economy has now expanded in the past seven quarters. Meanwhile its current account surplus is 40.7% higher, year on year, at US$ 193 billion. Both exports and imports showed marked annual increases – by 14.3% to US$ 583 billion and 18.5% to US$ 545 billion

At its Wednesday meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to move its benchmark lending rate (for the third time in 2017) up 0.25% to 1.5%.  It has made indications that there could be three similar hikes next year, pointing to declining unemployment levels, allied with a moderate expansion in both household spending and business investment. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain the south side of 2% and, if Trump’s tax plan is passed by both houses next week, there could be a further boost for the economy.

At the same time of Janet Yellen’s last Fed meeting, Chinese authorities increased the rate that is charged in open-market operations by 5bp, as well as lifting the same in its standing lending facility to 3.25%.  This is a move to tighten the country’s monetary policy and to cut back on its worryingly high credit supply.

Now that the UK inflation rate has edged above the pivotal 3.0% level to 3.1%, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, has to write a letter to the Chancellor of Exchequer explaining how he plans to reduce inflation to its 2.0% target. This level is at its highest level in nearly six years and comes at a time when wage growth lags behind at 2.2%. It was only in October 2016 that inflation was at 0.9%, with the fall in sterling being the main driver in inflation tripling in a little over a year. However, the 52 year old Canadian, who had worked for Goldman Sachs for 13 years, has not come to grips with the fact that inflation continues to outstrip wage growth. One thing is certain – if inflation remains at this level, or creeps higher, any future rate hike is left on the shelf.

Just like his two masters, Prime Minister May and Chancellor Hammond, Governor Carney appeared to have both feet in the Remain camp, stating (erroneously as it happened) that Brexit would force the UK into recession and be the biggest domestic risk to the economy. He is also on record for recently stating that the country would be booming if it were not for Brexit. Only last month, he hiked interest rates to 0.5% because the economy was growing “faster than its speed limit”, although current growth at 1.5% is somewhat lower than the 2.5% pre GFC figure.  Being the Governor of the Bank of England – It Don’t Come Easy!

Cluttons reckon that 80k residential units cloud be added to the Dubai property portfolio over the next three years and is one of the few consultancies that consider that this may not result in an oversupply situation. In line with what this blog has been expounding for some time, it expects the emirate’s population to increase by 441k over the same timeframe which pro rata equates to the requirement for an additional 105k units.

In Q3, the consultancy estimates that residential prices declined 1.9%, with villa prices down 2.8% and apartments lower at 1.3%. The sector recorded drops of 1.5% in Q2 and 5.6% over the past twelve months.

fäm Properties reports that there has been a US$ 8.2 billion (78%) increase in the value of Dubai land sales over the past five years, now at US$ 18.5 billion so far this year, compared to US$ 10.4 billion in 2012. Probably the best performing location has been Business Bay that has witnessed value growth from just US$ 131 million in 2012 to its current YTD level of US$ 900 million (and area-wise from 731k sq ft to 2.5 million sq ft).

Lootah Real Estate has broken ground on its The Gardens project in JVC. Covering an area of 244k sq ft, the twin residential buildings will house 217 units and should be completed by Q3 2019.

As part of its US$ 1.4 billion hospitality expansion plans, Nakheel has opened its tenth community club in Al Furjan. Located next to Al Furjan Pavilion, the facility will host a 150-seat restaurant, a swimming pool and fully equipped gym.

MMS Global has announced that The Art of Living Mall will open in September 2018. The specialised homeware mall, the first in the region, is being built on 162k sq mt of land in Um Suqeim Road and will host over 100 outlets. Apart from the “homeware” stores, it will also feature art exhibitions, restaurants, cafes and a gym.

Both parties have rejected claims, following rumours of a possible Spinneys takeover by Majid Al Futtaim. Spinneys did announce expansion plans which will see a 29.5% increase in its regional outlets to 79 and create 2k new jobs. The supermarket chain will also build a new US$ 48 million HQ in Dubai which will also feature a flagship store and an on-site cookery school.

A new fun golf concept is Dubai-bound for 2019 with the introduction of Topgolf. In partnership with Dubai Golf, the US company will open its venue at the Emirates Golf Club. The 60k sq ft, three-level building will see guests in hitting bays, using micro chipped balls that instantly score themselves, whilst indicating the accuracy and distance of shots. This is all carried out in a climate-controlled, family-friendly environment that utilises play, food and music.

Yet another leisure pursuit has arrived in Dubai with XDubai introducing its XLine in Dubai Marina. Not for the faint-hearted, the 1 km long zipline has a 16 degree incline and travels at 80kph.

There is every chance that Emirates may consider the introduction of a premium economy class on some of its flights. Some analysts consider that the airline has been missing out on an important revenue segment.

Damac confirmed plans that it hopes to work on Croatian projects – including Dalmatia, Dubrovnik and Istria – as it continues to expand its overseas business. The Dubai-based developer is searching for the right local partners.

Dubai Investments expect work to start early next year on its Riyadh Investments Park, whilst other projects in Angola and Kenya will be implemented later in 2018. The US$ 534 million Saudi project is in collaboration with two Saudi partners, one of which is providing the land whilst the remaining two stakeholders will contribute funding and management.

Dubai-based ASGC has won two Emaar Misr contracts in Cairo – phases 1 and 2 of the new Uptown Cairo project Levana, and the Crescent project in Mivida. The former involves construction of 121 villas and infrastructure work and the latter thirteen fully-finished apartment buildings with 5k residential units.

With revenue rising 17.3%, year on year, to US$ 926 million, GEMS Education posted an impressive 22.9% hike in its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) to US$ 262 million. Revenue per student, among its 47 schools, jumped 6.6% to US$ 8.1k, whilst enrolments were 9.4% higher at 114k students, although capacity fell from 90% to 87%. Over the past four years, the company has invested over US$ 1 billion in capital expenditure, of which US$ 343 million was expended this year.

Dubai-based Audacia Capital has paid US$ 108 million for two headquarter office properties – the ASICS EMEA and Benelux HQ and the Danone Netherlands Global headquarters – under construction near to Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands.

In what could be construed as a highly controversial and political move, the UAE has been included on an EU blacklist of 17 global tax havens. It is thought and hoped that it will have a negligible impact on the local banking sector and that sense will prevail in Brussels.

November’s Emirates NBD’s quarterly purchase managers index indicates that there has been a marked increase in buying activity in Dubai’s non-oil private sector. The headline PMI was up at 57 and indicators point to strong growth in Q4 which will be further boosted with increased sales activity prior to the introduction of VAT on 01 January 2018. On the flip side, there are still a lot of discounts on offer, to stimulate demand, that may stifle new business growth.

It was no surprise to see Dubai finally makes it into the top 30 of JLL’s latest Global Cities Ranking, coming in at 27^th. Encompassing 300 cities, the study covers the attractiveness of its commercial real estate offering.

Following its October launch in Dubai, the US$ 1 billion e-commerce company Noon has signed an agreement with the Saudi electronics giant, United Electronics Company (eXtra), as its exclusive partner for a range of consumer electronics and home appliance items. Noon has its head office in Riyadh.

Emirates REIT debut sukuk was 2.5 times oversubscribed; with a 5.125% profit rate and a five year tenure, the US$ 400 million raised, with a credit spread of 291 bp, will be used to refinance existing debt and replace amortising loans with bullet funding.

Acquiring an additional 66.7% stake in Brazil’s Empresa Brasileira de Terminais Portuários, DP World now owns 100% of Embraport The facility, to be known as DP World Santos, is Brazil’s largest multi-modal port terminal with an annual 1.2 million TEU capacity (20’ equivalent units). The Dubai operator already has a big presence in Latin America including operations in Argentina, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Peru and Suriname.

Abraaj has made an initial investment in an 111MW Mexican natural gas-fired power plant in Chihuahua – the first phase of what will be a 500 MW platform that the Dubai investment firm is planning for the country. The Mexican government is targeting clean energy generation to reach 35% by 2024.

The DFM opened the shortened week on Monday (03 December), at 3420 and was 27 points off to close on Thursday, 07 December, at 3393. Volumes were lower this week, with trading of 302 million shares, valued at US$ 154 million, (cf 345 million shares for US$ 217 million, on Wednesday, 29 November). Emaar Properties was US$ 0.04 higher at US$ 2.06, with Arabtec bucking its recent downward trend, climbing US$ 0.04 to US$ 0.65.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was 0.7 % higher closing at US$ 63.40, with gold down 2.0% to US$ 1,278 by 07 December 2017.

HotStats’ October returns give mainly good news for the regional hospitality sector. GOPPAR (total gross operating profit), RevPAR (revenue per available room) and occupancy headed north – by 1.9%, 4.1% to US$ 208 and 4.8% to 68.5% – whilst average room rates cane in lower, down 3.1% to US$ 178.

Coincidentally, Australia’s major banks “voluntarily” agreed to a formal investigation into the financial services sector minutes before PM Malcolm Turnbull announced a US$ 57 million royal commission. It seems that the Big 4 – ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac – have finally realised that they had lost their customers’ trust and confidence by their sometimes shonky behaviour. The one year enquiry will look into how financial institutions have dealt with cases of misconduct, cultural and governance issues – and no doubt their findings will prove interesting reading.

The US healthcare sector will be reshaped if the US$ 69 billion bid by pharmacy chain CVS to acquire health insurer, Aetna, is approved by shareholders and regulators. However, it must be remembered that two years ago, Aetna’s US$ 34 billion bid for Humana fell foul of federal judges over antitrust concerns. This comes at a time when there are reports that Amazon may enter the pharmaceutical market.

The US Commerce Department has revised the country’s Q3 economic growth upwards from 3.0% to 3.3% – compared to Q2’s 3.1%. Positive economic data continues to exude from the US – this time, Q3 labour productivity was up 3.0%, with output 4.1% higher as hours worked only rose by 1.1%.

Moody’s maintained Japan’s credit rating at A1, with “stable” outlook. The agency forecasts that the country’s 2018 growth will be 0.4% weaker at 1.1% and even drop to just 1.0% thereafter. There could be an affordability problem in relation to its rather high debt level which, because of its 2016 stimulus package, continues to expand and could be at a worrying 220% of GDP by the end of the decade.

Despite all its apparent woes and tribulations, November’s IHS Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI was 2.0 higher at 58.2 – its highest level in over four years – driven by a boost in the global economy and to a lesser extent soft sterling. Other positive indicators include a marked uptick in demand for investment goods, such as plant and machinery, and recruitment levels reaching 2014 levels. However, the UK economy continues to be stymied by a sluggish services sector and high inflation levels, outscoring insipid wage increases. Q3 growth was 0.4%, whilst the pound moved as high as US$ 1.35 during the week, and the FTSE 100, in line with many other global bourses, continued to defy gravity.

In line with recent data, UK construction activity in November continues to improve with the IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI posting a 2.3 points month on month hike to 53.1, driven by a boost in homebuilding activity; however, commercial work and civil engineering were lower.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed has given the country’s motorists a welcome birthday present – a 50% discount on all traffic and impoundment fines outstanding as on the 46^th National Day, 02 December. The country has come a long way since 1971 and has every reason to celebrate a Happy Birthday!

fäm Properties expect that over the next five years to 2022, Dubai’s property portfolio will rise by 164 k, with 7.3k handed over before the end of the year. Other consultancies have estimated far more so there is a wide divergence of views on future supply. The past three years, handovers have been half of what most “experts” had expounded at the beginning of each year, viz 14.9k in 2015 and 11.9k last year with  say 26k for 2017. Assuming the current population is 2.9 million and the number of residential units is 500k, the average unit houses 5.8. If the population increases at the current 8.1% rate, the population by the end of 2019 will have reached 3.38 million which would indicate that an extra 82.8k units would be needed to house 5.8 people. Over the past three years, the total number of handovers has only been 52.8k or 17.6k per annum so where’s the problem?

It has been estimated that 2017 construction contracts of almost US$ 3 billion have been awarded in connection with Expo 2020, together with a further US$ 112 million relating to non-construction. With the event edging nearer vital deadlines, more procurement opportunities will arise in 2018.

The owner of Emirates and flydubai has posted flat H1 profits. The Investment Corporation of Dubai, that also has major stakes in Emirates Global Aluminium and Emirates NBD, reported a marginal 0.6% decline in profits to US$ 2.25 billion, dragged down by a 52.0% slump in its transportation segment to US$ 300 million. Revenue was 13.1% higher at US$ 25.4 billion.

DMCC is to build a Jebel Ali coffee centre, that can handle up to 20k tonnes of green coffee beans annually with a value of over US$ 100 million, to be developed by Chinese companies, Mega Capital Halal and Yunnan State Farms Group. The country is the hub of a region that consumes 8% (equivalent to US$ 6.5 billion) of the global coffee consumption and would benefit by the fact that global exports jumped 4.8% last year to116.9 million bags.

Petrol prices are set to rise from tomorrow (01 November). Special 95 will be 6.3% higher at US$ 0.556, with the higher grade Super 98 up 5.9% to US$ 0.620 per litre. Having risen 6.5% in 2016, Special 95 is 13.5% higher so far this year, starting on 01 January at US$ 0.490.

Dubai Investments has acquired the two-year old Kent College Dubai campus in a long-term sale and leaseback deal which will see the operators working on a triple net basis to manage the school. With a student population of 2.2k, the UK school operates in Nad Al Sheba and is a subsidiary of Mir Hashem Khoory. The Dubai-listed company appears to be focusing on education-related ventures, as it expands its reach into income-generating real estate assets.

The UAE ambassador in Washington, HE Yousef Al Otaiba, stated that he thought that “US companies remain the preferred supplier for the country’s commercial and military’s aviation needs”. In the past decade alone, it is estimated that UAE customers – Emirates, flydubai, Etihad and Air Arabia plus the military – have purchased units valued at over US$ 150 billion from Boeing alone that represents a large share of the US$ 19 billion trade surplus the country has with the UAE.

The latest BMI report highlights the country’s transportation infrastructure as a leading driver in the construction sector with a total of 71 projects, valued at US$ 54.6 billion, under construction or in the planning stage. The fifteen railway projects account for US$ 13.9 billion of the total spend, with the largest being the 1.2 km Etihad Rail development. Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi are spending significant amounts on their airport expansions whilst half of the total projects are road-related but they only account for 8% or US$ 6.7 billion.

The latest BNC report estimates that there is currently 11.8k active construction projects in the country, valued at an impressive US$ 818 billion. The UAE’s number of projects accounts for 52% of the total and 33.6% of the total value of all the MENA projects.

Emaar Properties has agreed to start construction on Al Rasheed Residential City in Iraq; work on the US$ 10 billion project will begin early next year.

Long-standing creditors of Drydocks have agreed to DP World taking over the UAE shipbuilder in return for a US$ 225 million capital injection; this money will be used to pay out the junior creditors around 23% of their initial US$ 1.4 billion outstanding balance.  The remaining senior debt of US$ 649 million will be paid in two tranches – one of three years at 200 basis points over Libor and the other a five year repayment at 250 bp. The original US$ 2.2 billion debt (a three year loan of US$ 1.7 billion and the balance over five years) occurred in 2000 when Drydocks was planning to expand operations into Singapore.

A Chinese company, EHang Inc, has developed a one-passenger flying car that it hopes to roll out in Dubai next year prior to regulatory approval. The taxi drone, powered by four battery propellers, will have a100 km cruising speed and can remain airborne for 25 minutes.

The world’s busiest international airport continues to grow and looks set to welcome a record of over 89 million passengers by year end. Dubai International posted a 6.9% hike in October passenger numbers to 6.9 million, although flight movements were lower offset by an 11.6% increase in passengers per flight to 213.

The cruising season has restarted in Dubai after the summer break, with the emirate confident of beating last year’s total of 625k cruise visitors – a 15% hike on numbers from a year earlier. This year will see a rise in cruise calls to 155 with over twenty different cruise lines making use of the world class facilities, one of which will be Crystal Cruises which has chosen the city for the maiden voyage of its recently refurbished Crystal Symphony.

On Monday, the federal cabinet issued decree number 52 in relation to the introduction of Value Added Tax as from 01 January 2018. The executive regulations detail the supply of goods and services and initially will only apply to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with other GCC states joining later. Any entity, with revenue over US$ 100k, is required to register although some companies will be considered exempt. The tax rate is currently fixed at 5% with some specified goods and services being zero-rated. To those hoping for an implementation extension, there is bad news – the Director General of the General Tax Authority has reiterated that there would be no delay. It is also reported that failure to submit a registration application by 01 January 2018 could lead to a possible US$ 5.4k fine.

Following the announcement that Shuaa Capital had abandoned plans to buy into Global Investment House of Kuwait, its shares fell 1.7%; in June, the Dubai-based investment back pulled out of merger talks with Bahrain’s Gulf Finance House. Once the region’s largest investment bank, its fortunes declined on the back of the GFC and, having returned to profitability over the past two years, it was planning to expand its balance sheet partly through acquisitions.

The DFM opened Sunday (26 November), at 3461 and by the end of the shortened week (because of the National Day holidays) was 41 points off to close on Wednesday, 29 November, at 3420. Volumes were higher this week, with trading of 345 million shares, valued at US$ 217 million, (cf 356 million shares for US$ 172 million, on Thursday, 23 November). Emaar Properties was US$ 0.08 lower at US$ 2.06, with Arabtec continuing its recent downward trend, nose-diving by US$ 0.08 to US$ 0.61.  For the month, the bourse was 5.9% lower from its opening of 3461 (YTD 3.1% down), with Emaar and Arabtec both heading south dropping US$ 0.21 and US$ 0.14 from their respective November openings of US$ 2.27 and US$ 0.80.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was 2.6% higher closing at US$ 62.94, with gold flat at US$ 1,278 by 30 November 2017. The month opened with the yellow metal trading at US$ 1,276 and Brent at US$ 60.79.

There was some sort of consensus in Vienna with OPEC deciding in principle to cap production for another nine months. This comes after a year of output cuts of 1.8 million bpd involving all stakeholders including non-cartel members which led to oil prices stabilising upwards. It is estimated that compliance to this output reduction was over 90%.

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is planning to spend US$ 110 billion over the next five years, as it continues expansion by further exploration, development and production of its energy assets. It is also expected that ADNOC will look closely to worldwide downstream investments to become a global player in that sector. The oil giant recently announced a partial IPO (of between 10-20%) of its fuel distribution unit, with shares valued at between US$ 0.64 and US$ 0.71.

Keeping to his promise to the South Australian government – and at the same time winning a US$ 50 million bet – Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has delivered the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery within 100 days. The state had suffered a series of “load-shedding” blackouts earlier in the year that had left 1.7 million residents without power. In September he stated that the 100 Mw battery, enough to provide emergency power to 30k homes, would be up and running within 100 days or it would be given free.

A surprise development saw Xavier Rolet step down, at the board’s request, as chief executive of the London Stock Exchange with immediate effect. This follows a bitter boardroom battle with some members not happy with him. Mr Rolet will leave with payments that could be as high as US$ 17 million – US$ 1.1 million annual salary, US$ 2.3 million bonus and the balance from a number of long-term incentives.

The UK’s biggest tobacco supplier, Palmer & Harvey has entered administration, leaving 2.5k people jobless. The main driver was finance-related as a potential buyout by private equity firm Carlyle did not materialise.

Another week and another Japanese corporate scandal. Following in the wake of fake data from the likes of Kobe Steel, Mitsubishi and Nissan, Toray becomes the latest to be embroiled in falsifying product data. The synthetic fibre-maker has admitted rewriting quality tests before shipping products to several companies, including those that make car parts and tyres.

Black Friday saw footfall in the UK high street shops down 4.2%, and 3.6% in shopping locations, against market expectations of only 0.6%. The usual suspects, the continuing squeeze on household income and the recent rate hike, came into play but many stores already had prior sales bargains in place.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has had two directors this week following the resignation of its previous incumbent who nominated Leandra English as his replacement. However, President Trump had other ideas and installed his budget chief Mick Mulvaney to the position – a man who has called the consumer financial watchdog “a sick, sad joke” that should be scrapped. The agency has tried to curb the power and influence in Wall Street following the GFC whilst others consider it stifling economic growth with too much red tape and overbearing regulations.

Société Generale is to provide US$ 678 million in Q4 in relation to tax changes and redundancy payments with plans to cut a further 900 jobs on top of the 2.6k already announced. The bank is focusing on enhancing its tech investments and mobile banking to boost both revenue and profitability.

Troubled Uber Technology will reportedly post a Q3 loss of US$ 1.5 billion as it faces several legal battles, intense competition and regulatory problems in several jurisdictions. Two of its early backers want out and they have received a bid from Japan’s SoftBank to acquire a large shareholding but at a 30% discount on its last US$ 69 billion valuation. Other possible suitors for a stake in the ride-hailing company include Dragoneer Investment, Sequoia Capital and Tencent as General Atlantic and DST Global have dropped out of discussions.

In 2014, Time Warner divested itself of the iconic magazine publisher which has struggled, like many other in the printing world, from falling advertising revenues; it posted a 9.5% fall in Q3 revenue to US$ 679 million. In its home country Time publishes Entertainment Weekly, Fortune, People and Sports Illustrated.

The OECD is yet another global institution bullish about the global economy and has upped its 2017 forecast to 3.6% followed by 3.7% and 3.6% over the next two years. Over the three year period, US and euro area growth will be 2.2%, 2.5% and 2.1%, with the latter at 2.4%, 2.1% and 1.9%. There is no surprise to see the UK economy with figures of 1.5%, 1.2% and 1.1%. However, it is highly likely that these forecasts will not ring true and will probably come in higher as they do appear to be on the low side.

Zimbabwe is not the only country in an economic downturn. S&P have downgraded South Africa’s local currency debt score to junk status of BB+. It highlights the fact that the country’s economy has stagnated and, with its external competitiveness softening, a worsening of its economy and public finances is all but certain. The end result would be a widening of its budget deficit with borrowing costs increasing.

It appears that Prince Miteb bin Abdullah is one of the first detainees in the recent Saudi corruption crackdown to be released after reportedly settling to repay US$ 1 billion as “compensation”. Earlier in the month, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hinted that most of the 200 or so Saudis detained in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton would be freed if they agreed to repay some of the money they had acquired via illicit means. The Public Prosecutor has the final say whether to take any of the suspects, that include Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and billionaire Mohammed Al Amoudi, to court instead; to date, at least five will face prosecution whilst several have already settled with cash payments.

Having started the year trading at US$ 1k, virtual currency Bitcoin was trading at just over US$ 8k last Friday (24 November) and by Wednesday had risen by a further 25% to top US$ 10.0k for the first time. Most bank chiefs have trash talked the virtual currency, likening it to a Ponzi scheme, mainly because it is encroaching on their traditional business. International authorities are also concerned especially with the lack of regulation and not being backed by any government, or central bank, no entity is responsible for backing their value. Like similar crypto currencies, Bitcoin makes use of blockchain – an online ledger of transactions – backed up by a network of unknown computer operators on the internet. There is no doubt that anyone who purchases crypto currency will have bought a roller-coaster Ticket To Ride!

Decree 43 of 2013 laid down set rules on how landlords could raise rentals – but did not account for decreases. Under the regulations, an increase of 10% was permitted if the rental fell within 21% – 30% of average wages, 15% between 31% – 40% and 20% if the rent was 40% less than the average wage. Now the Dubai Land Department has recently updated its rental index that has seen average 10% declines across the board, in non-freehold areas, whilst freehold areas were largely left unscathed.

Following its recent US$ 171 million contract with Arabtec to build 1.3k villas at Akoya Oxygen, Damac Properties has started additional work there, valued at US$ 95 million, so as to speed up development in its 55 million sq ft green development.

As promised by Mirwais Azizi, in September, work has started on his company’s massive US$ 6.8 billion development in District 7 of MBR City. Covering 33 million sq ft, the project will encompass 30k residential units, constructed on 105 mid and high-rise buildings, as well as two hotels and a retail district. To be built in four phases, the first two are slated for completion by Q2 2019.

Not to be outdone, Oriental Pearls announced that its US$ 5.7 billion project, covering 4.6 million sq ft, will be finished by 2022. Phase 1 of the 7k premium freehold apartments, located in the Meydan Master Development, is already 10% completed and the first twelve towers will be ready for handover by November 2019.

Target Engineering, an Arabtec subsidiary, has won a US$ 259 million Emaar contract for work on phase 2 of Forte, located in Downtown. This contract is for the building of two towers (46 and 67 floors) and comes on top of the firm winning a contract for its five basements. Completion is expected by Q1 2021.

InterContinental Hotels Group is planning to launch Hotel Indigo Dubai Sustainable City, a 143-key property slated to be entirely solar energy-powered. No further details were available but it will be in association with Diamond Developers.

Emaar Hospitality expects to quadruple its number of hotels over the next four years. Currently, the Emaar Properties subsidiary has 30 hotels under development in a wide range of countries including the UAE along with Bahrain, Egypt, Maldives, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, with further expansion plans in over fifty countries.

The new Mina Rashid Marina, stretching 13 sq km, was inaugurated this week by Sheikh Mansour bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Built by DP World’s P&O, the facility will have 19 designated docks, with 646 berths that can accommodate 5k boats. Phase 2 of the project is currently under way and will include retail, residential and F&B, whilst the final phase will see berthing facilities for 16 large yachts, to be completed by Q3 2018. This development is part of the emirate’s 10X Initiative as Dubai is implementing projects now which other global centres will adopt ten years hence.

Exploratory work has begun on DEWA’s five year sewerage treatment system that involves 70 km of tunnels with 140 km of link sewers and pumping stations. Apart from the elimination of 100 pump stations, the new system will result in marked reductions in costs, power demand and carbon emissions.

On the back of an expected boost in regional e-commerce, DHL has opened a US$ 18 million expansion to its Dubai International Airport logistics facility. The global delivery firm has posted 26 consecutive quarterly growths of over 8% but much higher in the ME; itis forecasting 2018 growth of over 15%, aided also by an upturn in global trade. The upgraded facility will see an extra 13.1k sq mt and will enable hourly shipments to double to 5k.

Dubai World Central reported a 9.1% growth in traffic, to 705k, for the first nine months of the year, with passenger numbers rising 7.9% to 650k. However, flight movements were 15.3% lower at 24.9k but average passengers per flight expanded by 29.9% to 120.

It was surprising to see that Manama was ranked the top global city in this year’s Expat Insider Survey whilst Dubai, languishing 17^th, was behind Muscat, 12^th, and Abu Dhabi – 13^th. The survey involved 13k respondents and was conducted by InterNations.

Further to the IMF’s recent forecast of 3.5% 2018 growth for Dubai, the DCCI president, Hamad Buamin is also bullish about the emirate’s future expansion, agreeing with that figure and noting that 98% of the local economy is driven by the non-oil sector. He also pointed to the fact that Expo 2020 will result in increased investment that will “allow the city to grow”.

The Central Bank posted month on month October increases in gross bank assets to US$ 719 billion, gross credit (US$ 432 billion) and Money Supply Aggregate M1by 6.3% to US$ 134 billion.

Five-year old GlamboxME has been acquired by an unnamed Saudi buyer. The beauty subscription e-commerce company had already raised US$ 4 million from local investors and the new set up will see further expansion of both products (already with over 200 beauty brands on offer) and its regional network.

Emirates NBD issued its eighth bond – of US$ 750 million – to bring its total listing on Nasdaq Dubai to US$ 5 billion and ensuring that the bank is the bourse’s leading customer of conventional bonds.

Wednesday saw the launch on the DFM of Emaar Development PJSC, with its Chairman, Mohamed Alabbar, predicting a bright future and, on the back of a US$ 11.6 billion order pipeline, targeting an annual 8.6% dividend yield over the next three years. The shares opened at US$ 1.643, fell 3.6% within an hour of trading and closed the week 4.6% off at US$ 1.567.

The DFM opened Sunday (19 November), at 3460 and despite a topsy-turvy week was only 1 point higher to close on Thursday, 23 November, at 3461. Volumes this week were almost unchanged, with trading of 375 million shares, valued at US$ 169 million, (cf 356 million shares for US$ 172 million, on Thursday, 16 November). Emaar Properties was US$ 0.01 higher at US$ 2.14, with Arabtec continuing its recent downward trend by US$ 0.05 to US$ 0.69.

By Thursday, Brent Crude had lost half of its previous week’s gain dropping US$ 2.13 (3.4%), closing at US$ 61.36, with gold US$ 7 down to US$ 1,278 by 23 November 2017.

Carillion, has announced its third profit warning for the year, as a result of breaches of agreements with lenders. The UK construction firm, employing 43k, is working on some major projects and has to deal with on-going debt problems and badly performing contracts. Following its two earlier profit earnings, the company’s shares sank by 67% and this week the shares slumped by 50% in early trading.

Chinese company Tencent has joined the tech’s big 5, at the expense of Facebook. The social networking giant, founded almost twenty years ago by Ma Huateng, is now valued at US$ 523 billion but still lags behind Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.

This week’s budget sees the UK Chancellor, Phillip Hammond, introduce tax cuts in the form of cancelling stamp duty for first-time home buyers up to a maximum of US$ 400k, as well as an extra US$ 3.7 billion spending for the embattled NHS and the setting up of a US$ 4 billion Brexit war-chest, along with a US$ 2 billion U-turn on Universal Credit. (Remember he was a diehard “Remainer” some eighteen months ago). This is at the same time that he announced that annual growth in over the next five years had been cut, with all years having growth of less than 2% – the first time this has happened in modern times.

The main driver is that the country has been far too slow to rebound from the GFC. Consequently, with less money coming into the treasury, because of lower tax receipts, and less consumer spending because of wage level rises will continue  not to keep pace with inflation,  the government will have to lend more to cover their extra expenditure and the US$ 46 billion budget deficit.

In the US, the Conference Board reported a bigger than expected hike in its October index of leading economic indicators, up 1.2% (rather than the 0.6% expectation). Nine of the ten indicators headed north with the three main contributors being average weekly jobless claims, interest rate spread and the ISM new orders index. Further proof that the US economy is moving in the right direction came with new residential construction up 13.7%, month on month, to 1.29 million. Furthermore, building permits also increased – by 5.9% – to 1.3 million.

With the market bulls still stampeding the global bourses, there has to be renewed concern that a major correction is on the way. The MSCI All-Country World Index, covering 47 markets, hit an all-time high this week and is 19% up on the year and 190% higher than it was at the time of the GFC. Almost weekly, the Dow Jones industrial Average, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 continue to hit record highs (as they did again this week).

This week, the Chinese authorities continued their crackdown on the expanding, and almost unregulated, online micro lending sector. The Central government sent a directive to all its provinces to suspend regulatory approval for all new applicants and to cut back on such firms lending across different regions. This comes after several attempts to regulate more stringently the industry which has seen more than its fair share of scandals, frauds and high profile P2P (peer to peer) failures. Unsecured lending in this sector alone more than tripled last year to  a worryingly high US$ 140 billion.

The IMF has warned that even though Robert Mugabe has been ousted, the short-term economic outlook for Zimbabwe is gloomy. After almost forty years of his tyrannical rule, the country is beset by high government spending, inadequate reforms in place and an untenable foreign exchange regime. There is no doubt that the Chinese will have the country on its radar, with much of the post-Mugabe investment being in renminbi rather than US$ and euro.

The new incumbent – and the country’s third president – the 75-year old Emerson Mnangagwa comes with baggage and whether he pulls the country together remains to be seen. It has to be remembered that he has been a senior figure in Mugabe’s regime and a leading member of the ruling ZANU-PF party for decades. Furthermore, he was the Minister of Security during the Gukurahundi massacres in which thousands of Ndebele civilians were killed. One of the richest men in the country, he is known by his “Ngwena” nickname (Shona for crocodile) for a reason. Even with this changing of the guard, Zimbabwe is a long way from being Out Of The Woods and more like Out Of Touch.

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has approved a new penal order system that will see Dubai Public Prosecution dealing with minor misdemeanours and offences – via fines – rather than through the court. The good news for many is such offences will now include bounced cheques of up to US$ 54k, non-payment of rents and defamation cases.

fäm Properties has reported that Q3 Dubai estate transactions and  sales of 19.9k units now account for more than 50% of the 39.5k total  – this is the first time since the 2008 GFC that this has happened.  In 2010, the ratio was at 88-12 of “ready” property to off-plan and since then this has continued to drop to its current level.

With this week’s US$ 15.1 billion Air Show commitment for 40 787-10 Dreamliners, the number of wide-body Boeing planes Emirates has ordered reached 204, with a combined value in excess of US$ 90 billion; deliveries will start in 2022, two years later than the first of the 150 777X, ordered at the 2013 Dubai Air Show.

Before Wednesday, flydubai’s fleet stood at 61 planes, with a further 70 Boeing 737 MAX 8s due before 2023. The eight-year old budget airline, which serves 97 destinations in 44 countries, surprised everybody by placing a US$ 27 billion order for a further 225 aircraft.

This week did not start well for its rival Airbus that lost out with its A350 bid with the American plane being “the best option” for Emirates. The European conglomerate had earlier in the month offered a higher-density configuration plane but it had arrived too late for further consideration. The Dubai airline has also decided to stall any A380 orders, to add to its already 142 inventory, until Airbus makes firm commitments on its future.

By the end of the week, a smile had returned to the Airbus faces as it announced its largest ever single order – 430 A320neo, with a list price of US$ 49.5 billion – that will boost its order book that stood at only 290 aircraft at the end of October. The US Indigo Partners, whose airlines include Frontier (US), JetSmart (Chile), Volaris (Mexico) and Wizz Air (Hungary), hope to finalise the deal by the end of the year. (The aviation sector contributes so much to the Dubai economy accounting for 28% of its GDP, contributing US$ 22 billion to the economy, and 19% of the total workforce).

This week serves to show that so-called “experts” are not always right, with the general feeling being that this would be a lacklustre event. Over the five days, there was a record 79k visitors and total bookings were US$ 113.8 billion – almost three times more than the US$ 37.2 billion of orders signed at the 2015 show. (The aviation sector contributes so much to the Dubai economy accounting for 28% of its GDP, contributing US$ 22 billion to the economy, and 19% of the total workforce).

Despite volatile regional and global economic conditions, Dubai continues to perform strongly as demonstrated by Q3 trading results, indicating a credible 12.8% hike in non-oil foreign trade to US$ 93.7 billion, compared to the same period in 2016. Re-exports were the main driver, with a 34.0% jump to US$ 28.0 billion, as all three trade components showed increases – free zone (21%), direct trade (9%) and customs warehouses (8%). Dubai’s top three trading partners remain China (US$ 35.1 billion), India (US$ 20.2 billion) and USA (US$ 17.0 billion). YTD, non-oil trade was up 3.5% to US$ 268.4 billion.

To expand the local development of financial technology, Dubai International Financial Centre has initiated a US$ 100 million FinTech-focused fund. The DIFC, recently ranked tenth in The Banker magazine’s annual international financial centres, estimates that this will leverage its FinTech ecosystem and enhance the future of finance in the region.

Dubizzle has acquired two local companies – Masterkey and AirList – to boost its real estate listing, currently standing at 150k. No financial details were readily available.

It has been announced that the upcoming Emaar Development, with a 22 November start date, will raise US$ 1.7 billion – higher than the 2014 Emaar Mall’s launch of US$ 1.6 billion. The share issue price will be US$ 1.64. It has recorded YTD revenue of US$ 1.77 billion, resulting in a profit of US$ 573 million.

Emaar Properties posted a 31.7% jump in Q3 profit to US$ 411 million, with revenue 45.0% higher at US$ 1.52 billion. YTD, both its revenue and profit realised healthy gains – by 21% to US$ 4.2 billion and 20% to US$ 1.2 billion. The developer reported a 32% increase in the sales of residential property.

Arabtec Holding recorded its third quarterly profit this year of US$ 5 million – a major turnaround following the US$ 61 million loss in Q3 2016; YTD, the company has posted a US$ 20 million profit, compared to a US$ 125 million deficit last year. Q3 and YTD revenue both headed north, by 5.9% to US$ 572 million and 3.2% to US$ 1.7 billion respectively; going forward, it has a project pipeline, totalling US$ 4.6 billion.

Because of the need to complete a capitalisation programme, and a US$ 136 million cash injection, Drake & Scull International posted a US$ 98 million Q3 loss due to a lack of liquidity; revenue totalled US$ 161 million, of which US$ 68 emanated from local operations. When some form of financial normality returns, and the ongoing debt restructuring is finalised, the firm hopes for an improvement in operational performance.

Following a US$ 9 million profit in the same period last year, Union Properties posted a Q3 loss of US$ 12 million, with revenue dropping 54.2% to US$ 32 million. The loss, attributable mainly to the winding down of its subsidiary Thermo, would have been greater if operating expenses had not fallen by 28.1% to US$ 44 million. During the period, the revamped developer unveiled a US$ 2.2 billion master plan for Motor City, comprising 44 high and low rise buildings and150 villas along with commercial, entertainment, hospitality and residential facilities.

Marka saw a quarter on quarter narrowing of its losses in Q3 from US$ 34 million to US$ 6 million, although revenue nudged 8.0% lower to US$ 6 million. The company expects results to improve with the introduction of a strict cost control program and major operational changes.

The DFM opened Sunday (12 November), at 3450 and by the end of the week had crept 10 points higher to close on Thursday, 16 November, at 3460. Volumes were higher this week, with trading of 356 million shares, valued at US$ 172 million, (cf 242 million shares for US$ 133 million, on Thursday, 09 November). Emaar Properties was US$ 0.01 higher at US$ 2.14, with Arabtec continuing its recent downward trend by US$ 0.05 to US$ 0.69.

By Thursday, Brent Crude had lost half of its previous week’s gain dropping US$ 2.13 (3.4%), closing at US$ 61.36, with gold US$ 7 down to US$ 1,278 by 16 November 2017.

US-based investment firm, Harbour Energy, has had a US$ 67.2 billion bid for the Australian energy company Santos rejected; at the time of the August offer, shares were trading at US$ 3.54. By Thursday, its shares were 8.8% higher at US$ 3.85 from its August price and 13.0% up on the day.

Siemens announced that it will retrench 6.9k (50% in its home base, Germany) mainly in its fossil fuels division, as global demand for its large turbines has fallen. The conglomerate had already announced 6k job cuts in its wind power units. Its UK business is unlikely to be affected.

In a long-standing tax evasion case, involving assets of more than US$ 1.9 billion, by some of its clients, HSBC has agreed to settle with French authorities and pay a US$ 353 million fine. Europe’s largest bank had acknowledged “control weaknesses” and will be happy to see the case closed, although two of its former directors could still face legal action. Under new 2016 French legislation, it is allowed for companies to settle, without any finding of guilt.

Despite a dip in consumer spending, Japanese Q3 growth grew at a 1.4% annualised rate, driven by improving export figures (up 6.0%) and increasing global demand. This, the seventh consecutive quarterly expansion and the longest growth period since before the GFC, follows more than four years of economic stimulus by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, even after the 2013 introduction of “Abenomics”, inflation is still weak and private consumption spending continues to soften.

Although month on month figures were slightly down, China is still performing better than analysts expected at the beginning of the year. Industrial output at 6.2% was 0.4% lower, retail sales 0.3% off at 10.0% and fixed asset investment posted a 0.2% decrease to 7.3%.

Whilst applauding the improvement in the European economy and that the recovery looks to be durable, the IMF did warn that a disruptive Brexit would have a negative impact and lower growth for both stakeholders – Europe and the UK. Driven by historic low interest rates and unprecedented central bank stimulus, there has been 18 quarters of growth, with latest figures indicating 2.5% for this year and even higher figures up to 3.0% for some eastern European countries.

Finally, the US House of Representatives has passed an overhaul of the US tax code that would slash corporate rates and be the biggest such legislation since 1986. Described by the President as a “big, beautiful Christmas present” for families, he hopes that the “simple, fair, and competitive tax code will be rocket fuel for our economy”. If successful, it would see corporates paying 20% tax (down from the current 35%) and significant changes on how overseas profits and payment from overseas subsidiaries are taxed. (Some significant US companies will be lobbying against these proposals).

It has taken a long time for the UN to accuse Myanmar’s government of ethnic cleansing as reports indicate that over 600k Rohingya refugees have fled on-going violence, mainly to Bangladesh, over the past three months. The country’s elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has also been rightly criticised for alleged human rights abuses and the destruction of villages in the northern Rakhine state. Chevron has not escaped reproach as it has multibillion dollar energy investments in the country.

Africa’s richest woman, Isabel Dos Santos, the billionaire daughter of former President José Eduardo dos Santos, has been sacked as head of Sonangol, Angola’s state oil company. In September her father, who was Africa’s second longest-serving leader, stepped down after 37 years in power to be replaced by Joao Lourenco who has promised to tackle corruption.

Meanwhile the longest serving African leader, Robert Mugabe is reportedly under house arrest. The 93-year old has managed to wreak havoc on Zimbabwe’s economy and will be remembered for declaring inflation illegal in 2007 after the 59% inflation level in 2000 rose to 600% three years later and then to 1,200% in 2006 and 66,200% and 80 billion% over the next two years. He also reduced what was considered the continent’s breadbasket to a country relying on food imports as in the 1990s, he stripped white farmers of their land and handed it to members of the black population who, in many cases, had no farming experience.

Strangely, it was only last month that the World Health Organisation announced that it was making the African tyrant a “goodwill ambassador”! This century has seen the “enforced” downfall of the likes of Sadam and Gadaffi and the question has to be why it has taken so long to see the end of Mugabe. Far too late, this despot has finally become Yesterday’s Man.

Damac has announced that it sold 85% of its luxury Věra Residences’ units on 04 November, the opening day of sale. The 30-storey tower is located in Business Bay overlooking the Dubai Canal. Only last month, the developer sold out all residences for phase 1 of its Akoya Oxygen’s Just Cavalli Villas.

It also announced that it had started additional work in Akoya Oxygen, totalling US$ 95 million. Towers Technology Contracting was chosen as the main contractor for 448 villas, whilst Nael Construction and Contracting will carry out roads and infrastructure work for phase 6 of the development.

With construction stalled and the property being 90% complete, Langham Hospitality Group is still confident that the luxury hotel on Palm Jumeirah will be completed. The 323-key building was initially scheduled for completion in 2015.

Dubai tourist numbers for the first nine months of the year have risen 7.5% to 11.6 million, with India (1.45 million), Saudi Arabia (1.25 million) and the UK (905k) holding on to the top three source markets. Largely because of the introduction of the visa on arrival scheme, there were marked increases in visitors from Russia (up 95%) and China (up 49% to 573k). At this rate, an annual 9% increase in numbers will see Dubai breach its 20 million target by October 2020 – a viable figure even without the attraction of Expo. Euromonitor International ranks Dubai the sixth most visited global destination behind Hong Kong (26.6 million visitors), Bangkok, London, Singapore and Macau.

Emirates posted a 111% surge in H1 net profit to US$ 453 million, with passenger numbers rising 4% to 29.2 million and capacity by 2% to 264 aircraft. The owner of the airline, Emirates Group, reported a 77% improvement in profit to US$ 631 million, as revenue came in 6.2% higher at US$ 13.5 billion. Dnata posted a 20.0% hike in profits to US$ 180 million, handling 330k aircraft (up 11%) and a 25% increase in cargo to 1.5 million tonnes. During the period, the airline signed a code share agreement with flydubai involving 45 destinations and also extended its partnership with Qantas for a further five years.

As the Dubai Air Show opens this Sunday, there is every chance that Airbus will receive a new order for the A380 jumbo from its lead customer. Having just taken delivery of its 100^th double-decker airliner, Emirates already has a further 42 on order and accounts for 44.8% of the total A380 net orders of only 317 units (with a list price of US$ 437 million). With Airbus cutting annual production to just eight aircraft, the long term prospects for the plane seem gloomy, especially if there is no order forthcoming from its lead customer this week.

The federal cabinet has approved the country’s 2018-2021 budgets, totalling US$ 54.8 billion, including US$ 14.0 billion for next year. The two main sectors, accounting for 80.0% of the total spend, will be ‎social development/benefits (US$ 7.2 billion) – comprising US$ 2.8 billion allocated to education and US$ 1.2 billion to health – and government affairs (US$ 6.0 billion). No deficit is forecast, as the government aims to balance the books.

In tandem with its development of the Port of Berbera, DP World is to establish a 12.2 sq km greenfield economic free zone in Somaliland. The Dubai-based company will develop the new facility, based on its home Jebel Ali Free Zone, in phases, with the first one covering 4 sq km. Further details, including DP World’s capital investment plan, will be announced once the agreement is signed with the new government, following next week’s elections.

The world’s fourth largest ports operator is also planning to develop a 95 sq km industrial and residential zone in Egypt’s Sokhna on the Red Sea. No figures were readily available but it will hold a 49% stake in the project with the Suez Canal Economic Authority retaining 51%.

As the Dubai Air Show opens this Sunday, there is every chance that Airbus will receive a new order for the A380 jumbo from its lead customer. Having just taken delivery of its 100^th double-decker airliner, Emirates already has a further 42 on order and accounts for 44.8% of the total A380 net orders of only 317 units (with a list price of US$ 437 million). With Airbus cutting annual production to just eight aircraft, the long term prospects for the plane seem gloomy, especially if there is no order forthcoming from its lead customer this week.

The US-based Fetchr, along with drone delivery firm Skycart, are developing the region’s first autonomous drone delivery service with Dubai’s Eniverse. Using the latest geolocation technology, packages of less than 5kg can be delivered all over the emirate.

The Emirates NBD October UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index increased by 0.8 to 55.9 on the back of rising output and a surge in inventory levels, with the expectation of a marked upturn in demand. However, there are still concerns about rising costs and the prevalent use of discounting to secure business, although there was a welcome increase in new business.

A US$ 500 million APICORP sukuk brought the number of 2017 sukuks on Nasdaq Dubai to eleven, with a value of US$ 10.25 billion; this is the second issue by the multilateral development bank under a 2015 US$ 3 billion sukuk programme. Dubai has become a global leader in this financial sector and its listings currently total US$ 53 billion.

Amlak Finance reported a 111.5% hike in Q3 profits to US$ 4 million but were lower for the first nine month, down 68.5% to US$ 8 million, as revenues of properties under construction dipped 90.4% to just US$ 10 million.

Arabtec Holding posted its Q3 results that have seen revenue up 5.7% to US$ 572 million (and 3.2% to US$ 1.7 billion for the nine months to September) as the construction company returned to profit; in Q3, this came to US$ 15 million, compared to a US$ 61 million deficit last year and a US$ 14 million YTD surplus following a US$ 143 million loss in 2016.

Emaar Malls reported an 11.5% hike in Q3 profit to US$ 132 million, as revenue rose by 13.2% to US$ 239 million. In August, it bought online retailer Namshi for US$ 151 million and this has benefitted the company, with its Q3 revenue was 39.0% higher at US$ 53 million. Footfall for the first nine months of the year was 5% higher at 95 million visitors.

Amanat Holdings recorded a 15.2% improvement in Q3 profit to US$ 4 million on a 42.8% rise in total income to US$ 6 million. The Dubai-listed healthcare and education company is expected to spend US$ 272 million this year on at least two deals.

Aramex posted a 13.0% increase in Q3 profits to US$ 22 million with revenue 9.0% higher at US$ 312 million, driven by global e-commerce growth across all geographical sectors. The international logistics and transportation company would have reported a higher double digit profit growth if it were not for currency fluctuations, especially the Egyptian pound.

In 2016, SHUAA Capital posted a US$ 10 million Q3 loss but over the past year has managed to turn things around to record a 2017 quarterly profit of US$ 6 million; for the first nine months of 2017, profits were at US$ 16 million, compared to a US$ 31 million deficit in the same period last year.

Although the Commercial Bank International posted a 4.0% increase in Q3 profit to US$ 9 million, there was a 15% decline for the nine months to US$ 23 million, driven by higher impairment charges; net interest income in Q3 was 13.0% higher at US$ 40 million. There were improvements in both net loans/advances (up 2% to US$ 3.7 billion) and customer deposits by 10% to US$ 3.9 billion.

The DFM opened Sunday (05 November), at 3622 and by the end of the week had lost 172 points (4.7%) to close on Thursday, 09 November, at 3450. Volumes were higher this week, with trading of 242 million shares, valued at US$ 133 million, (cf 126 million shares for US$ 58 million, on Thursday, 02 November). Emaar Properties dropped US$ 0.13 to US$ 2.13, with Arabtec falling US$ 0.06 to US$ 0.74.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was US$ 4.34 (7.3%) higher on the week, closing at US$ 63.49, with gold US$ 17 higher to US$ 1,285 by 09 November 2017.

The latest leak of a reported 13.4 million confidential financial documents indicates how some secretly invest in offshore tax havens. Last year, it was the Panama Papers that hit the headlines, now the Paradise Papers are set to cause at least embarrassment to a range of high-net-worth individuals including HM Queen Elizabeth, Donald Trump’s Commerce Secretary, Lord Ashcroft, Bono, Lewis Hamilton, a key aide of Canada’s PM (Justin Trudeau) and Russian oligarch, Alisher Usmanov.

According to the leaked documents, Apple, in 2015, moved much of its offshore cash from Ireland to Jersey to “ensure that tax obligations and payments to the US were not reduced”. This followed the tech company making corporate changes to adapt to the tightening of Irish tax legislation.

Reports from Saudi Arabia indicate that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, having set up a new anti-corruption body, has undertaken a major purge of the kingdom’s political and business leadership. It appears that eleven princes, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, four sitting ministers and dozens of ex-ministers have been detained.

On Tuesday, shares in Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding Company fell 9.78% on the Tadawul to US$ 2.16 – its lowest level since December 2011. According to Bloomberg, the Saudi prince lost 6.9% of his wealth, to be worth only US$ 17.7 billion, within 48 hours of the shock announcement.

There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to see the New York Stock Exchange as the chosen international bourse for the upcoming Aramco IPO, due to take place in Q3 next year. With only 5% of the conglomerate being floated, it is expected that the Saudi government’s coffers will be enhanced by up to US$ 100 billion.

Following BP’s impressive results last week, Royal Dutch Shell has announced that Q3 profits jumped 47% on the back of higher production and recent rises in energy prices. However, current cost of supplies rose 155% to US$ 3.7 billion, resulting from one-off costs last year.

The world’s second largest car-maker reported an impressive 13.2% hike in H1 profits to US$ 9.4 billion, as revenue rose 8.6% to US$ 124.7 billion, driven by a weaker yen and a major cost-cutting exercise. Toyota has now upped its full year (March 2018) profit forecast to US$ 17.1 billion.

Meanwhile, Japan’s second largest vehicle company, Nissan has cut its full year profit forecast by 5.9%, to US$ 5.7 billion, because of a safety inspection scandal which saw a 1.2 million car recall only last month and a three-week factory shutdown; this was as a result of revelations that uncertified workers had been carrying out final vehicle inspection checks for decades. Earlier, the company had posted a 21.6% decline in Q3 operating profits to US$ 1.1 billion, as North American sales sank to a three-year low.

SoftBank kept the markets happy with a US$ 3.5 billion Q3 profit, that was some 23% higher than analysts’ expectations, with revenue topping US$ 19.7 billion. The Japanese company reported that its US unit, Sprint, already struggling with subscriber losses, will be looking for a new direction now that its merger talks with T-Mobile US have broken down.

In a move that surprised the market, Broadcom Ltd has made a US$ 100 billion offer for Qualcomm Inc that would make the new entity the third largest global chipmaker, behind Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co. The deal – the largest ever in the tech industry – would see Broadcom’s revenue surge by US$ 30 billion and expand its network in chips that connect handsets to wireless networks to its existing expertise in chips that link devices to Wi-Fi networks.

When he first came to power in 2014, President Joko Widodo set a 7% annual growth target but he has fallen short over the past three years, posting figures around the 5% mark. The largest regional economy in SE Asia, Indonesia posted a 5.06% annualised growth in Q3, (on the back of communications, information and services sectors), with exports climbing 17.3%, year on year. To further boost the economy, a series of economic stimulus packages have been introduced and interest rates cut, now at 4.5%.

It has not been the best twelve months for Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his announcement of India’s biggest-ever cash ban exactly a year ago, cancelling 86% of the currency in circulation. His attempt to rid India of corruption, fake rupees and black money, in one fell swoop, has largely failed. However, his biggest problem is that the promising economic growth prospects, that were forecast to be in the 7% region, have stalled. Indeed, GDP growth has declined linearly over the past six quarters from a 9.2% high in Q3 2016 to the current 5.7%.

China’s financial system is becoming significantly more vulnerable due to high leverage, according to central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who has made a series of blunt warnings in recent weeks about debt levels in the world’s second-largest economy. There is no doubt that the authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the country’s high borrowing levels and that tougher regulations will be introduced. Furthermore, there could be a relaxation of capital controls that will allow non-Chinese financial institutions to operate on the mainland.

US October employment figures posted an additional 261k jobs that helped to drive the jobless rate down to 4.1% – the lowest rate since the turn of the century. The main drivers were marked increases in the manufacturing as well as the professional and business services. However, wage growth was slower than expected and the increasing hiring expected, following the major hurricane season, did not materialise. With consumer credit surging US$ 20.8 billion in September and expanding at an annual 6.6%, there will be worries of a growing debt problem in the country.

On Thursday, the US and Chinese Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed deals worth US$ 250 billion, as it was reported that total bilateral trade totalled US$ 648 billion in 2016. However, Donald Trump is far from happy about the US$ 310 billion trade imbalance and has blamed his predecessors for allowing it whilst praising and crediting Jin Ping for looking after his citizen’s welfare. It is becoming more difficult these days to choose between the Heroes and Villains.

This week, a US$ 736 million JV was announced between Dubai Airport Free Zone Authority and wasl Asset Management Group to set up Dubai CommerCity. Located on a 2.1 million sq ft plot in Umm Ramool, MENA’s first dedicated e-commerce free zone will have three clusters – Business (with 13 office buildings), Logistics (84 units) and Social (including art galleries and a range of luxury restaurants and cafés). There is no doubt that it will enhance Dubai’s standing as a major e-commerce hub and will act as a catalyst for dedicated foreign investment opportunities and further growth in a regional market that is set to expand to US$ 20 billion by 2020.

Azizi Developments confirmed that its US$ 212 million Mina by Azizi on Palm Jumeirah will be ready by Q4 2018. Based on the traditional Arabic dhow, the project will comprise a range of 1-4 BR fully-furnished and serviced residences. This year alone, the Dubai-based developer has registered 68 separate projects, valued at US$ 5.7 billion.

The twin tower The Waves in Jumeirah Village Circle will be ready for handover by Q4 2018, according to Lootah Real Estate Development. The project comprises 135 studios / 1 BR units and will incorporate a pool and gymnasium.

The world’s fifth Bulgari Hotels and Resorts property will open in Dubai in December 2018. Located on Jumeirah Bay Island, and shaped like a seahorse, the Marriott International operated property will have 101 rooms and 20 beachfront villas, with its own private beach.

Union Properties has set up an investment arm, UPP Capital Investment, that will focus on its direct and indirect real estate business. This will be the developer’s third new division, following Union Malls and Al Etihad Hotel Management, since the May appointment of Nasser Butti Omair Bin Yousef as its Chairman.

Gulfood Manufacturing 2017 opened on Tuesday and, with 1.6k exhibitors, expects over 10k trade visitors over the three days.

There are two news items that should help silence the many doom and gloom merchants in town. BNC report that Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for 74% of the GCC’s hospitality and leisure projects currently underway and valued at a US$ 200 billion total. The other is the price of oil that has seen Brent at over US$ 60 for the first time in over two years. A rising oil price and a strong construction sector, allied with Expo 2020, will have a positive impact on the local economy that will see Dubai grow almost 4.0% in 2018 and even more in the ensuing two years.

To support the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 by the Crown Prince, Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, DP World will help in the development of Jeddah port. Along with the new US$ 500 billion mega project called Neom, Jeddah could become a major hub owing to its geographical proximity to this new development, other major markets and trade routes.

Locally-based fit-out company, Depa reported a 343% surge in nine-month profit to US$ 35 million, as revenue rose 33% to US$ 334 million. Its recently introduced business/restructuring plan is seemingly taking effect.

For the first nine months of the year, Dubai International has posted a 5.8% hike in passenger numbers to 66.6 million, with September registering only a 1.7% rise to 7.2 million because of the splitting of seasonal travel rushes during Eid; 27.9% of the traffic emanated from three countries – India (931k), UK (549k) and Saudi Arabia (536k) – and the three most popular destinations were London (346k), Kuwait (214k) and Mumbai (183k). Although there was a 1.9% monthly decline in flight movements to 308k, the average number of passengers per flight was 6.8% higher at 224.

Petrol prices will be lower in November as the Ministry of Energy announces that Special 95 will fall 4.5% to US$ 0.523, although diesel will nudge up 0.5% to US$ 0.575.

Because of the oil price crash, when prices dipped below US$ 30 in January 2016, the GCC countries took steps to boost non-oil revenue streams, slash public spending and introduce economic reforms. The inevitable slowdown in some countries – and slumps in others – resulted in budget deficits, and this week the IMF predicted GCC economic growth of just 0.5% this year – the worst return since 2009’s 0.3%. Consequently, the organisation is encouraging quicker diversification away from oil and greater input from the private sector.

Dubai Investment recorded a 4.8% rise in Q3 profit to US$ 95 million, with a nine-month profit figure of US$ 226 million. The company had a US$ 553 million turnover and a total asset base of US$ 4.6 billion.

Emirates REIT posted a very healthy 42.2% growth in nine-month profit, at US$ 14 million, with its portfolio value topping US$ 845 million – a 13.9% hike compared to September 2016. The world’s largest Sharia-compliant REIT spent US$ 35 million when purchasing European Business Centre in Dubai Investment Park. The company is planning a debut US$ 300 million Islamic bond by this December.

Emirates NBD reported a 36.7% hike in Q3 profit to US$ 619 million, well up on market expectations, as net interest income was 10.0% higher at US$ 763 million, with non-interest income 9.0% higher at US$ 316 million. Operating income at the emirate’s biggest bank by assets was 9.7% higher at US$ 1.1 billion, with a marked reduction in net impairment provisions, down 40.8% to US$ 117 million. Customer loans, deposits and total assets all headed north – by 5.0% to US$ 82.9 billion, 4.0% to US$ 87.7 billion and 3.0% to US$ 125.6 billion respectively.

Emirates Islamic has posted increases in both Q3 and 9-month profit figures – up, year on year, to US$ 30 million (following a US$ 8 million loss in 2016) and by 470% to US$ 136 million respectively.  However, nine-month total income dipped 6.0% to US$ 490 million, driven by lower one-off gains from the sale of investment properties, whilst impairment provisions were 41% lower and operating costs down  by 13%. The bank saw its total assets up 1.0% to US$ 16.3 billion.

Emirates Investment Bank posted a 74.0% hike in nine-month profit to US$ 12 million, with Q3 coming in 48.4% higher at US$ 5 million.

Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company PJSC reported a 4.2% Q3 year-on-year increase in net profit to US$ 130 million, as revenue remained flat at US$ 853 million. Du’s nine month profit was down 6.9%, to US$ 351 million, after royalty for the quarter came in at US$ 140 million and YTD at US$ 417 million.

Emaar confirmed that it would be offering 800 million shares (20% of the issued shares) in the IPO of its subsidiary Emaar Development; 7.2 million shares will be available to institutional investors with the remaining 10% allocated to retail buyers. An additional 40 million shares, worth US$ 1.6 billion, will be assigned to the Emirates Investment Authority. The IPO was full subscribed within hours of its Thursday opening and the share issue price will be in the region of US$ 1.70.

The DFM posted a 21.8% decline in Q3 profits to US$ 8 million, as revenue fell 8.8% to US$ 20 million, on the back of a sluggish summer that saw trading values down 23.0% to US$ 4.6 billion; this in turn resulted in lower fee income.

The DFM opened Sunday (29 October), at 3651 and by the end of the week had lost 29 points to close on Thursday, 02 November, at 3622. Volumes were well down this week, with trading of only 126 million shares, valued at US$ 58 million, (cf 453 million shares for US$ 118 million, on Thursday, 26 October). Emaar Properties dropped US$ 0.05 to US$ 2.26, with Arabtec flat at US$ 0.80. For the month, the bourse gained 2.0% from 3564 to 3635, with Emaar US$ 0.04 lower from its October opening of US$ 2.31 to its close at US$ 2.27, whilst Arabtec was US$ 0.02 higher at US$ 0.80.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was US$ 1.92 (3.4%) higher on the week, closing at US$ 59.15, with gold again moving lower by US$ 22  to US$ 1,268 by 02 November 2017. Brent had a good October jumping 5.6% from US$ 57.54 to US$ 60.79 as gold was US$ 8 lower to close the month on US$ 1,276.

IATA has announced that ME September, year on year, cargo growth reached 8.9% with capacity growing at the much lower rate of 2.6%. On a global scale, air freight demand came in at 9.2%. ME carriers reported a 3.7% hike in September passenger traffic – its slowest rate of increase in more than eight years. Capacity rose 4.3% with load factors slowing 0.4% to 74.5%.

The problems facing the disgraced Kobe Steel continue to mount as it withdrew its US$ 308 million net income forecast for March 2018 (and cancelled an interim dividend payout) because the company does not know the potential liabilities from the scandal, involving its falsification of product data. Clients will inevitably seek reimbursement if their 525 affected customers request replacement products or compensation and there is every chance of litigation taking place. (VW have already paid out over US$ 50 billion, arising from claims and fines, for falsifying diesel emission).

JC Penney is beginning to feel the pinch and, with sales flat in 2017, it has downgraded its adjusted earnings per share from US$ 0.40 – 0.65 to US$ 0.02 – 0.08. The US retailer, along with other traditional department stores, is fast losing grounds to the likes of Amazon and other on-line sites as well as to discount retailers.

Yet another Australian dairy processor is joining the ranks of those who have been acquired by overseas interests. This time, Murray Goulburn is being bought out in a US$ 1 billion deal, by Canada’s Saputo, since it can no longer afford to pay its suppliers enough to keep them happy and in business. The Victorian company has seen its milk supply half over the past two years whilst its debt levels and operating costs have remained at the same levels.

Swiss drug-maker, Novartis, has acquired French-based Advanced Accelerator Applications for US$ 3.9 billion which will boost its growing oncology business. The cash amount showed a 47% premium on AAA’s closing price when news first broke in late September.

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority is investigating how hotel booking websites operate and whether they have customers’ best interests at heart. There are concerns that they could be misleading in the way they present information on their sites, including the likes of result rankings, “pressure selling”, hidden charges, and discount claims.

There were some stellar Q3 results from a myriad of major international players, Sony was perhaps the most impressive, posting a US$ 1.8 billion profit figure, 27 times higher than a year earlier; it also expects to post a record annual profit in March – the traditional Japanese business year end.

BP saw Q3 profits 9.0% higher at US$ 1.8 billion helped by the recent hike in global energy prices. The oil giant has recovered from the devastating 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster, which cost over US$ 50 billion. It has also been bolstered by marked improvements in its downstream division (including distribution, marketing and refining).

HSBC more than quintupled its Q3 profits from US$ 843 million to US$ 4.6 billion, driven by improving business in Asia and reaping the benefits of a recent major corporate overhaul.

Meanwhile BNP Paribas reported an 8.3% hike in quarterly net profit to US$ 2.4 billion, assisted by a US$ 380 million capital gain from the Indian IPO of SBI Life: however, its revenue dipped 1.8% to US$ 12.1 billion, driven by “an unfavourable foreign exchange effect.”

Despite reporting its third straight quarterly profit (of US$ 517 million, compared to a US$ 619 million loss 12 months ago), the government-backed RBS is still looking at its tenth straight annual loss. The bank, still 70% owned by UK taxpayers after its US$ 59.4 billion 2008 bailout, is facing a multi-billion dollar US Department of Justice penalty for its sale of toxic mortgage-backed securities.

Ryanair has confounded the markets by posting an 11% hike in half year profits (at 30 September) to US$ 1.5 billion, with passenger traffic up by 11% to 72.1 million; this number is expected to fall to 4% over the next half year (to 56.9 million) because of the roster problem that has grounded 25 aircraft for lack of available crew and a “forced” pay rise costing an extra US$ 52 million. It will also incur an expected expense of US$ 29 million to cover the cost of 700k affected passengers.

China’s industrial profit continues to boom with September’s 27.7% year on year growth not only eclipsing August’s impressive 24.0% figure but also being the fastest growth rate since 2011. Over the nine-month period, earnings at state-owned firms surged 47.6% which were more than triple those of private enterprise at 14.5%.

Even as it trimmed its inflation forecast, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its mega monetary stimulus program unchanged. It now expects to hit its 2.0% target by April 2019 and sees that the economy is on track to continue its longest expansion since 2001 with both stocks at their highest level and the labour market at its tightest this century.

According to figures released by the EC, economic confidence in the Eurozone is at its highest level since January 2001, as the Index of Industry and Consumer Sentiment rose 0.9 to 114 points in October, month on month. Furthermore, the bloc’s economy expanded for the 18^th straight quarter in Q3, whilst unemployment levels have fallen to 9.0%. Q3 eurozone growth continued to head north – driven by strong domestic demand – climbing 0.6% quarter on quarter, (slightly down on the 0.7% in Q2), as the unemployment rate was at its lowest in over eight years. However, inflation slowed surprisingly and is still some way off the bloc’s 2% target. Eurozone’s annual 2.5% GDP growth is similar to that of the EU28.

Chancellor, Philip Hammond, could be looking at a US$ 26 billion black hole only weeks before his autumn budget, later in the month. As productivity growth diminishes, the IFS estimate that the public deficit could reach over US$ 47 billion – a lot higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s US$ 22 billion forecast earlier in the year. It will be interesting which route the Chancellor takes to balance the books or whether he abandons this target altogether.

In the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that the manufacturing sector PMI recorded yet another monthly growth in October (its 15th in a row), rising 0.3, month on month, to 56.3. The most active drivers behind the uptick were increased production, new export business and a rise in new orders. However, the service sector did not fare as well, and, with the perennial problem of inflation outpacing wage growth, discretionary spending is still muted.

There was also a slowdown in the US manufacturing sector as the Institute for Supply Management’s PMI dipped 2.1 to 58.7 in October. This result is not as bad as it first appears coming on the back of September’s 13-year high return. The main drivers were slowdowns, recorded in new orders and production growth but both still have 60+ readings. This is still very good news for Trump administration and will allow the Fed to continue with its “gradual” pace of policy tightening.” The agency has already indicated that there will be a rate hike before the end of the year.

The US economy continues to confound analysts as Q3 posted a 3.0% growth despite global uncertainty, including North Korea, as well as the problems emanating from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. These figures follow positive Q2 data indicating a solid 3.1% economic expansion, with the last six months seeing the country’s strongest economic activity in over three years. There is no doubt that the US economy is heading in the right direction and if only some credit could go to the incumbent president, Wouldn’t It Be Nice?

HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has launched the One Million Arab Coders initiative which he hopes (and expects) to equip young Arabs with fluency in coding and programming. The forward thinking Ruler sees coding as the language of the modern era which will provide them with improved employment prospects and empower them with the attributes required to contribute to the development of the fast-growing e-economy not only in the UAE but further afield. The two-year initiative will comprise three stages, culminating in the leading 1k coders competing for a top prize of US$1 million.

According to the Dubai Land Department, there were 52.2k property transactions, valued at US$ 55.6 billion, in the first nine months of the year. Location-wise, Burj Khalifa, Business Bay and Dubai Marina were the best performing, with deals valued at US$ 1.7 billion, US$ 1.5 billion and US$ 1.4 billion respectively. Of the total transactions, 36k (US$ 13.2 billion) involved residential, land 11.2k (US$ 39.0 billion) and building sales 5.0k (US$ 3.4 billion).

Following a raft of quarterly reports last week, the latest is ValuStrat’s Q3 realty review which concludes that market recovery is being stymied by increased off-plan activity, especially in the affordable section. It noted that more than 50% of the monitored locations – including Downtown Dubai and Emirates Hills – were showing signs of recovery. It estimates that 73% of all Q3 residential sales transactions were off-plan and that by the end of 2017, Dubai’s residential portfolio would see an addition of 25k units. Interestingly, it suggests a further 55k could be added next year.

Asteco has joined the ranks of other consultants reporting that realty prices fell in Q3 – with rentals 4% lower for apartments and 3% for villas. Further fall are expected in Q4.

Azizi Developments has announced that its ninth Al Furjan project should be completed in Q1 2018. Azizi Montrell, with 168 studios and 54 one B/R apartments, will bring the developer’s total delivery to over 1k. The company expects to complete a further three projects in the same location by 2020.

Although construction will not be completed until 2020, wasl Asset Management Group is to sell 200 residential units in wasl1 Park Gate Residences project. Located on a man-made island, access to the development will be via four bridges.

The scarcity of good office space has seen prime office lease rates remain stable in Q3. The latest CBRE report also indicates that this could change, with the influx of new office buildings, as 85k sq mt was added to the Dubai portfolio in the last quarter. Since Q1 2016, rentals have been stable in both sectors – with prime locations at US$ 522 per sq mt and secondary office rents at US$ 276. Meanwhile the major shopping centres continue to perform well – with high occupancy and stable lease rates – but the smaller malls are still struggling with vacancy levels nudging upwards. It is expected that a further 1 million sq mt of gross leasable area will be added before the end of 2019. JLL also came with similar results reporting that there has been up to a 5% decline in headline rents, with smaller neighbourhood and community malls faring slightly worse.

Tunneling work has started on the Metro’s Route 2020 Project which will have 3.2 km of the new 15 km Red Line extension to the Expo site going underground from Discovery Gardens to The Green Community. The transport system is to receive fifty new carriages which will see Gold Class seats transversal and Silver Class longitudinal, along with other enhancements.

H1 investment in the industrial sector has risen by 2.0% to US$ 35.4 billion, year on year. The Ministry of Energy has plans to lift this sector’s contribution to national GDP from its current level of 16% to 20% by 2021.

With the introduction of Apple Pay this week, the UAE became the 20^th country in the world to use the latest digital wallet. This payment method can be used by anyone with credit card facilities, with one of six participating UAE banks, and an i-Phone. Apple Pay will now offer competition to earlier start-up e-payment systems, Samsung Pay (introduced six months ago) and BEAM that has been available for the past five years.

With the cruising season starting on Wednesday, DP World announced that it is expecting a record 115 luxury cruise ships to berth at Mina Rashid’s Dubai Cruise Terminal in the coming months. Current expansion plans will see enhancements to present berthing facilities, as well as new ones being added.

DEWA has raised US$ 6.5 billion for its investment arm, Green Fund, that could eventually reach US$ 272 billion, according to Saeed Al Tayer, its Managing Director and CEO. The fund, established last year, has two aims – to invest directly into green businesses and to offer loans to companies in the clean energy sector.

DP World posted a 13.5% hike in Q3 gross volume handled, as its YTD total rose 10.0% to 52.3 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), across its global portfolio. During the period, 1.5 million TEUs of new capacity were introduced – 1 million from Jebel Ali Terminal 3 and 0.5 million (the port of Prince Rupert in British Columbia).

Because of steady growth across its various business sectors – including hospitality, residential and retail – Nakheel posted a 2.5% hike in nine-month profit to US$ 1.1 billion; for the first six months of 2017, it had reported a 10.5% decline in net profit. So far this year, the government developer has issued US$ 1.9 billion of contracts, including the US$ 1.1 billion Deira Mall project, and now has over US$ 13.6 billion worth under construction.

Emaar Properties’ shareholders approved an IPO for up to a 30% stake in Emaar Development as well as transforming the new entity into a public joint stock company, with the shares being listed DFM. Part of the proceeds from the issue – which could generate as much as US$ 7.6 billion – will be made available to shareholders, in the form of a cash dividend, probably as early as January.

Etisalat reported a 29.0% surge in Q3 profit to US$ 654 million on revenue of US$ 3.5 billion. The UAE, which has 12.5 million of the telco’s 140 million subscribers, saw increases in both revenue, up 3.0% to US$ 2.1 billion and profit 4.0% higher at US$ 545 million.

Gulf Navigation posted declines in both nine-month and Q3 profits – by 89.4% to US$ 32 million and 76.1% to US$ 9 million respectively. The Dubai listed company has also announced a tie-up with Ali & Sons Marine Engineering Factory to form a new company specialising in oil drills reparation and renovation. The navigation company has also put aside US$ 150 million for future acquisitions which will further expansion plans and profit levels and will issue a US$ 250 million sukuk in the near future.

Dubai-listed Shuaa Capital is considering a stake in Global Investment House subject, inter alia, to DFM approval. It is part of the company’s expansion strategy within the GCC.

The DFM opened Sunday (22 October), at 3673 and by the end of the week had lost 22 points to close on Thursday, 19 October, at 3651. Volumes were down this week, with trading of 452 million shares, valued at US$ 118  million, (cf 709 million shares for US$ 250 million, on Thursday, 19 October). Emaar Properties, on the back of the IPO announcement, dropped US$ 0.07 to US$ 2.31, with Arabtec edging US$ 0.01 lower to US$ 0.80.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was US$ 1.92 (3.4%) higher on the week, closing at US$ 59.15, with gold again moving lower by US$ 22  to US$ 1,268 by 26 October 2017.

Singapore Airlines has signed a US$ 13.8 billion order for 20 777-9 and 19 787-10 models from Boeing, although in reality the value of the order could be discounted by at least 50%. Delivery will start by next year. In 2016, the airline was one of several that decided not to continue using the Airbus A380.

Singapore-based Noble Group could post a US$ 1.25 billion Q3 loss (following a US$ 1.75 billion Q2 deficit) on the back of a proposed sale of its American oil-liquids business to Vitol Group. The embattled commodities trader, badly impacted by the falling energy prices, is selling some of its assets in an attempt to pay off its mounting debts. By the beginning of the week, its shares had plummeted 78% YTD.

Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is set to acquire Equis Energy for US$ 5.0 billion, including US$ 1.3bn of liabilities. The Singaporean developer of renewable-power projects is involved in several solar, wind and hydroelectric power operations in Asia and Australia, where it is developing one of that country’s largest solar plants.

Volvo surprised the market with Q3 profit 44.7% higher at US$ 861 million, driven by strong demand for heavy trucks and commercial vehicles. The Swedish company, that hived off its car-making to Ford nearly two decades ago, is also benefitting from its introduction of a US$ 1.2 billion cost-cutting drive. Consequently, its shares shot up by 7% and YTD up 56%.

EU officials have raided the BMW headquarters as it investigates an alleged cartel along with four other German carmakers – Audi, Daimler, Porsche and VW. It is reported that Daimler has already filed an application for leniency but has no current plans to set aside funds for possible fines, whilst VW defended itself against similar claims last July. Regulators are looking at allegations that there has been collaboration for decades on many aspects of development and production, to the disadvantage of stakeholders, including customers and suppliers.

Toshiba has halved its annual loss forecast for selling its memory chip division to a Bain-led consortium for US$ 1.0 billion. This week, its shareholders agreed to the US$ 17.6 billion sale that will help the Japanese conglomerate claw back some of the losses incurred by a multibillion-dollar deficit in its US Westinghouse nuclear operations.

Lloyds posted an impressive Q3 146.6% profit surge to US$ 2.6 billion only four months after it returned to 100% private ownership, having been bailed out in 2008 by the government post GFC. It was helped by the fact that there was no increase in impairment provisions for which the bank has already paid out in excess of US$ 23.7 billion for its role in the payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal.

Having already paid US$ 2.5 billion in fines in 2015 for dubious dealings over rate fixing, Deutsche Bank has agreed a US$ 220 million payment to settle a US investigation into its rigging of the benchmark Libor rate. The bank had been accused of defrauding government entities and charities by making false or misleading submissions to set benchmark rates so as to benefit their own internal trading positions.

On the subject of rate rigging, three of Australia’s major banks have gone down the same road. ANZ settled with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in 2016 and it now looks as if National Australia Bank may do likewise. That being the case, it would leave only Westpac to face trial over bank bill swap rates, a key benchmark used to price billions of dollars of loans, bills, bonds and derivatives.

Latest quarterly figures from Qantas indicate that the airline is going well, with revenue up 5.1% to  US$ 3.2 billion and a six month underlying profit forecast of up to US$ 730 million, 11.5% higher when compared to the same 2016 period.

In her first significant move as New Zealand’s youngest-ever Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, is to ban foreign buyers from purchasing existing homes in the country. This is because soaring prices have resulted in an affordability crisis, with many New Zealanders unable to climb on to the property ladder. Other factors impinging on the problem were increased immigration, low interest rates and a shortage of residential stock. An estimated 10.4% annual jump in house prices has seen Auckland’s median price up at US$ 583k, whilst the capital Wellington witnessed a massive 18.1% surge for the year to June 2017.

Shinzo Abe comfortably won Japan’s general election, the market responded favourably with the Tokyo bourse hitting 21-year highs and the yen declining to its lowest level in three months. Although slightly down on the previous month, Japan’s manufacturing sector, at 52.5, is still in expansion mode, driven by an increased rate of employment, backlogs and output prices, whilst new orders, new export orders, output and purchases increased at a slower pace.

In a bid to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbons, Saudi Arabia announced that it plans to establish an investment zone, comprising nine specialised sectors, named as Neom, in the north west of the country. The project, which will be backed by up to US$ 500 billion, will be spearheaded and supported by the PIF (Saudi’s Public Investment Fund) with backing from PPPs (public private partnerships) and international investors, including Japan’s Softbank. The development, covering some 10k sq miles and bordering the Red Sea, will stretch into Egypt (which will be linked by a bridge) and Jordan.

Unsurprisingly, it seems that Greece is still some way off to placate the requirements of the IMF and the EU involving some 95 outstanding reforms that need to be implemented. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is keen to get some agreement by the end of the year so that the country can see an early end to eight years of rescue funding programs. Whether it can reduce state control of public utilities and cut back on government spending to satisfy its two main creditors remains to be seen.

There was good news from the smaller 19-country Eurozone bloc as October’s IHS Markit’s Flash Composite PMI reported that companies were hiring at the fastest pace in over a decade – although it did show a month on month decline from 56.7 to 55.9. However, the manufacturing PMI headed north – up 0.5 to 58.6. Both indices indicate that the eurozone economy is progressing well.

Q2 euro area government debt to GDP fell 1.7%, year on year and 0.1%, Q on Q, to 89.1%. Estonia, Luxembourg and Bulgaria had the lowest ratios of debt in the 29-country bloc with Greece (at 175%), Italy and Portugal were found at the other end of the spectrum. Debt securities accounted for 80.3% of the liability,as loans comprised 16.6% of the total.

The UK can expect its first interest rate hike in over a decade next week on the back of better than expected Q3 growth of 0.4% following 0.3% in each of the previous two quarters. The current record low rate is at 0.25% and could be doubled by this time next week.

A benchmark indicator points to the rude health of the US economy as September new home sales surged 18.9% to 667k, driven by a 33.3% jump in sales in the Northeast and 25.8% in the South to 405k. At the current level, the 279k estimate of new houses for sale equates to a five month supply at current sales rates.

Just as the Trump administration plans to introduce tax cuts of US$ 1.5 trillion, it was reported that the country’s budget deficit rose by US$ 666 billion for the 2017 fiscal year, 13.7% higher than a year earlier; the deficit represents 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 3.2% in 2016. With the Senate narrowly passing the 2018 federal budget, it is hoped that these cuts will result in expanded growth which in turn will increase tax revenues.  There is no doubt that Donald Trump will be ultimately judged on how the US economy performs and, after nine month in office, he continues to defy many of his critics Against All Odds.