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It was announced that 180 luxury apartments in the second phase of sales of units in Al Habtoor City have already been sold, with prices for 1-bedroom units starting at US$ 518k. Handover for units – that range from 1 to 7-bedrooms – is expected in Q4. There are three high rise towers, with a total of 1.46k units and located by Dubai Canal, that comprise The Residence Collection.

The transport network received another boost this week with HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s approval of another road (costing US$ 136 million), running parallel to the US$ 133 million ‘Airport Road Improvement Project’ that is currently under construction. The project – which will ease the congestion around Dubai International Airport – will create a new 11.8 km corridor, of which 5.3 km will be a new road whilst a 6.5 km stretch of Tripoli Road will be widened.

An agreement between Careem and the RTA will see customers of the ride-hailing app able to book any one of 10k taxis operated by the emirate’s six taxi franchises. The booking service will allow users to track and check details of their bookings on Careem’s platform. Meanwhile Uber will levy a US$ 0.82 surcharge on all its future bookings, with collections being credited to the RTA.

Local fuel prices head northwards for the third straight month in March, with Special 95 higher, 1.6% month on month to US$ 0.523 per litre, having started the year on US$ 0.490; last year’s increase was 6.5%.

DEWA is planning to invest  a further US$ 907 million to increase its spend to US$ 2.72 billion for building  97  132/11 kilovolt (kV) substations over the next three years. The utility has a US$ 17.7 billion budget to meet increased demand over the next five years. Its current capacity is 10k megawatts, serving 800k customers, with a 2016 peak load of 8k MW – 4% higher than a year earlier.

Dubai Wholesale City has launched a 1.5 million sq ft complex of light industrial units and refrigerated warehouses specifically for the emirate’s food and halal sector. The TECOM global integrated wholesale trading hub aims to become one of the industry’s major global players.

Du held an auction for 50 mobile numbers which raised US$ 2.02 million. It can only be Dubai when one such number sold for US$ 1.23 million with Indian businessman, Balwinder Sahni, paying this amount for number 058 888 8888.

It is reported that Abraaj Capital has acquired Middlesex University’s overseas campus in Dubai from a group of local investors. Although the actual value of the deal was not known, it is thought that it was equivalent to 11 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) which would put the price of the 13-year old facility at about US$ 75 million.

Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group, a division of Dubai Holding, the 13-year old investment arm for HH Sheikh Mohammed, posted an 8.0% rise in profits to US$ 1.72 billion on the back of a 16.0% surge in revenue to US$ 4.59 billion. Dubai Holding has a US$ 35 billion asset base and is involved in a myriad of business sectors in 20 countries. This week, its only chairman, HE Mohammed Abdullah Al Gergawi, resigned to concentrate on his federal government role as Minister of Cabinet Affairs.

Emirates REIT posted a 37.6% rise in 2016 cash profit to US$ 11 million, on the back of an 8.0% hike in revenue to US$ 3.23 billion, driven by increases from both rental income and property income – up by 22.8% to US$ 45 million and 22.2% to US$ 51 million respectively. Interestingly, this week Emirates NBD has transferred a seven-property US$ 314 million portfolio to set up their own real estate investment trust (reit). As with Emirates REIT, this will be listed on Nasdaq Dubai.

The DFM opened Sunday at 3634 and closed 1.4% down on Thursday (02 March 2017) at 3584. Volumes still remain at low levels, closing the day at 360 million shares, valued at US$ 175 million, (cf 349 million shares for US$ 120 million, the previous Thursday). Emaar Properties traded US$ 0.01 up, to US$ 2.08, with Arabtec, shedding US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.25; its share value has fallen 35.8% over the past three weeks. In February, the bourse shed only 13 points to close the month on 3630, with Emaar nudging US$ 0.01 higher to US$ 2.03 and Arabtec plummeting US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.25.

By Thursday, Brent Crude was US$ 0.09 higher to close on US$ 55.90, with gold marginally down (US$ 7) to US$ 1,233 by 02 March 2017. Brent traded 0.5% lower in February to US$ 56.56, whilst the yellow metal gained 3.5% to close the month on US$ 1,254.

The Joint OPEC / Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee has announced an 86% conformity level in relation to the 1.8 million bpd output reduction agreed by all participants last December.

The year-old proposed US$ 30.4 billion merger between London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse is having problems with EC approval; it could collapse unless the LSE sells its 60% stake in MTS, a fixed-income trading platform. It looked as if this were a done deal especially after the London bourse divested part of its clearing business, LCH,  to satisfy the EC’s competition concerns.

As expected, the Royal Bank of Scotland posted its ninth straight annual loss with a 2016 deficit of US$ 8.6 billion bringing the cumulative total for the period to US$ 71.3 billion. To cap it all off, chief executive, Ross McEwan, acknowledged there was more to come! The bank is planning cost cuts of US$ 2.5 billion over the next four years which will see inevitable retrenchments.

Ford is considering cutting its UK workforce in Bridgend by as much as 65% to just 600 within the next five years. This comes after the US car giant decided to cut investment in the new generation Dragon petrol engine project, just six months after its announcement.

Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty-First Century Fox is seeking EC regulatory approval to acquire European pay-TV entity Sky for US$ 14.4 billion. Its bid to take full control of the rest of the UK company is unlikely at this stage because of potential political problems, as was the case in 2011.

Having lost US$ 350 million, because of two security breaches (the biggest in internet history) that impacted 1 million users, Yahoo has punished Marissa Mayer. The CEO will not receive her annual bonus nor a potentially lucrative share award.

Despite worries that the economy may hit the ropes early in 2017, Q4 data indicates that Australia will continue to grow and break the Netherlands’ record (1982 – 2008) of over 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth. Because of increases in both consumer spending and exports, Q4 growth came in at 2.4%. December business investment also moved higher after three years of decline. With commodity prices on the up and the country relying less on its resources investment boom, 2017 growth may well top 3%. Another sign of the good times saw Q4 company operating profits climb by 20.1% and an impressive 26.2% on the year.

Following President Trump’s Congressional Address, the Dow Jones closed on Wednesday at a record 21115 with the bourse gaining 1000 points over the past three weeks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite also headed north closing at highs of 2397 and 5904 respectively. With tax cuts and a boost in infrastructure investment in the pipeline, allied with a sentiment that economic expansion has arrived, a Fed rate hike is becoming increasingly likely and may be as early as this month. There is no doubt that worldwide, investors are feeling more positive about the global economic environment with many indicators continuing to head upwards.

The danger of over-reliance on using the cloud was brought home by Amazon’s cloud computing service’s outage in the east of the US. This week, its simple storage system, Amazon S3, reported “high error rates” that impacted on several of the company’s cloud service.Also this week, the UAE received welcome rain, abetted by the National Center of Meteorology & Seismology. The agency has been involved in enhanced cloud seeding that has assisted in increasing the amount of rainfall.  Get Off My Cloud!

The latest Asteco report indicates that this year 31.5k apartments and 12.5k villas are scheduled for delivery, compared to actual 2016 completions of 8.8k and 5k. That being the case, there could be a further softening of the market; however, if past history is anything to go by the actual handovers at the end of 2017 could be half of that total. Furthermore, Dubai’s population is expected to grow by at least 150k – all of whom have to be housed (admittedly not necessarily in the emirate). This would see a supply shortage with the obvious conclusion that prices will rise – by how much is the US$ 64k question.

Azizi Developments is to build 180 residential and retail units in Meydan One – a community that will be home to a shopping mall, with a 150mt x 80mt retractable roof, the world’s largest “dancing fountains”, an indoor ski slope, a 4km canal and a 300 mt “beach”.

Earlier in the week, the first Trump-associated property to open since the president’s inauguration was The International Golf Club in Damac Hills (formerly Akoya). The president’s two sons, Eric and Donald Jnr, who now control the Trump empire, were at Saturday’s glitzy launch.

Danube Properties’ US$ 109 million Miraclz Tower, with 591 apartments (ranging from studio – 2 bedroom), has already been 95% sold – a sure indicator of the buoyancy in the affordable housing sector.

With infrastructure design by Dar Al Handasah almost 80% complete, Nakheel will recommence work on the 266 mixed-use Madinat Al Arab. The 522 hectare site, ideally located close to the Dubai World Central mega-airport, the Expo 2020 site and the newly-opened theme parks, is a major part of Waterfront project

Nakheel also reported that it had begun work on a 55-storey residential tower, adjacent to The Gardens community. The US$ 232 million Ibn Battuta Residences 2 will have 279 apartments, along with retail space and a multi-storey car park, and is in addition to the developer’s 48-floor twin tower project, housing 531 units, announced last year. The company will also increase its current retail space by 53k sq ft, introduce a 16-screen dine-in cinema complex and add a further 600 parking spaces.

With the Dubai Marina Yacht Club closing its doors in January, Emaar has announced that a Vida hotel will be built in its place. It is expected that the new building will house both a hotel and serviced apartments but as yet no further detail are available.

DXB Entertainments (60%) and Merlin Entertainments Group (40%) have joined forces to build the region’s first Legoland Hotel adjacent to Legoland, part of Dubai Parks and Resorts. Every one of the 250 rooms will have a Lego theme to it.

Saudi Arabia’s Al Tawfeeq for Development and Investment (ATDI) expects its US$ 136 million First Avenue to open in Q2. The project, located in Motor City, comprises a shopping mall and a 150-key Park Inn by Radisson hotel. Five anchor tenants – Carrefour, Prime Medical Centre, Fun Block, Reem Al Bawadi and ACE Hardware – account for 40% of the mall’s leasable area, which will host a further 80 outlets.

With the commercial property sector finally showing signs of recovery, a recent Knight Frank report indicates that rents will remain flat, as premium locations see new supply eating into any potential upturn, whilst lesser grade buildings may witness a slight decline. 2016 was a year blighted by a slowing local economy and marked employment cutbacks in certain sectors which had a negative impact on the Dubai market.

It was no surprise to see the retail sector continuing to struggle for a variety of reasons including a strong greenback, low consumer confidence, a dip in shoppers’ purchasing powers and a flattening of the sales curve. Despite these problems, the larger, better managed malls continue with high occupancy levels but with new supply coming on line, and a growing demand for online shopping, 2017 could present further problems.

According to a recent Cluttons report, demand for Dubai industrial realty has fallen on the back of a sluggish global economy and an increase in the supply of new warehouses. With capital market values slipping across the board – but markedly in older stock – there is now opportunities for purchasers to buy in the hope that the bottom of the market has been reached, especially with Expo on the horizon and oil prices nudging higher.

5-year old Snapchat has opened its first ME office in Dubai Internet City, as it tries to extend its reach in the area, targeting advertisers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The company, that could be valued up to US$ 25 billion, currently has 150 million active daily users.

The doom and gloom merchants will be surprised to read a report from BNC’s Construction Analytics that indicates that Dubai has 4k active construction projects, valued at an impressive US$ 313 billion. Of this total, 3.2k can be found in the emirate’s urban construction sector, accounting for 78.3% of the total spend (US$ 245 billion).

Dubai public transport recorded another record year in 2016, with total passenger traffic up 4 million to reach 543.6 million. The metro, posting a 7.1% increase in numbers to 191.3 million, accounted for 35.2% of the total, followed by 33% using taxis. Interestingly, there were significant increases in bus and tram users – up by 12.2% to 151.1 million and 32.7% to 5.4 million – whilst 14 million used marine transport.

The RTA will buy 200 Tesla electric vehicles (Model S sedans and Model X SUVs), fitted with autonomous driving technology, for use in its limousine taxi fleet. At the same time, it was announced that the US company would also open a Dubai office for distributing and maintaining its vehicles.

Al Khaleej Sugar Refinery announced that in November it delivered 404k tonnes of white sugar – the largest ever quantity by a single deliverer. The Al Ghurair company is the largest global port sugar refinery, with 50% of the product destined for the UAE market.

UAE’s love affair with Mars continues. Last November, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum approved the country’s Mars Hope probe, scheduled to reach the red planet in 2021; now the Ruler has announced the Mars 2117 project which targets a miniature city being built there within the next century.

In a bid to increase their flagging non-oil revenues, the 6-country GCC bloc still hopes to introduce a 5% VAT on 01 January 2018. However, it appears likely that UAE will lead the rush and that some other countries will delay implementation until procedures are in place. Currently, the government would want the tax levied across the whole economy but may well look at education, healthcare, renewable energy, space, technology, transport and water in a more sympathetic light. The cut-off for registered companies may start with revenues as low as Dhs 365k but residents will have to wait and see until the UAE VAT law is finally approved and enshrined into law.

Currently, only individual emirates can issue sovereign bonds but this is set to change with the federal government introducing measures that could see the country doing likewise. Funds raised in this fashion would be utilised mainly in the banking sector, as a means for the Central Bank to better manage its liquidity requirements.

Dubai Investments has  made a US$ 51 million profit as it sold its 100% stake in Marnum Holding and United Sakes Partners to Elite Agro.

Dubai Investments, a conglomerate in which sovereign fund Investment Corp of Dubai owns an 11.5 percent stake, has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai Investments Industries Al Mal Capital PSC has acquired its second US investment – the 153k sq ft Poinsettia Plaza shopping centre in Ventura, California; it had exited its first US foray – a Louisiana residential complex – in 2015. This week, the company has also made a US$ 51 million profit as it sold its 100% stake in Marnum Holding and United Sales Partners to Elite Agro.

As part of its continuing expansion strategy, Dubai Investments Industries have invested US$ 300 million in various global sectors; these include Emirates Aluminium Rolling (US$ 30 million), Kings College Hospital Healthcare (US$ 50 million) and Modul University Dubai (US$ 9 million).

Dubai Islamic Bank increased its sukuk listing on Nasdaq Dubai to US$ 4.25 billion, with a US$ 1 billion issue on Wednesday. The local bourse is now considered the largest global venue for sukuk listings, totalling US$ 47.8 billion.

With the 2016 reporting season in full flow, there were many results announced this week – some good, some bad. As 2016 group revenue increased 1.9% to US$ 14.27 billion, Etisalat posted a 1.9% rise in profits to US$ 2.29 billion. Meanwhile, the country’s second telecom, Du, disappointed the market with a 20.0% slump in Q4 profits to US$ 101 million; some of the fall has been attributable to higher government royalty payments.

Emaar Properties has seen a 56.0% hike in Q4 profits to US$ 438 million as revenue from its property developments rose; 2016 profits came in 28.0% higher at US$ 1.43 billion on the back of a 14% hike in revenue to US$ 4.23 billion. International activity, at US$ 726 million, accounted for 17.2% of total revenue, with Dubai property sales of US$ 3.92 billion showing a 41% jump on the previous year’s returns.

On the other hand, Arabtec is going through a torrid time and its Q4 and 2016 results do not make happy reading. The Dubai-listed contractor posted a Q4 deficit of US$ 804 million, more than seven times the US$ 110 million recorded last year, and an annual loss of US$ 929 million (compared to US$ 640 million a year earlier). The board has agreed to a US$ 409 million capital restructuring plan.

Dubai developer, Damac, reported a 1.3% rise in Q4 profits to US$ 233 million, with annual profits falling 18.2% to US$ 1.0 billion. Shareholders will be happy with a US$ 0.068 cash dividend – 66.7% higher than last year. Over the year, the company handed over 2.4k units, with 45.8% of that total occurring in Q4.

Union Properties posted a 51.4% decline in 2016 profits to US$ 58 million, as revenue tumbled 23.5% to US$ 308 million. Its total asset base nudged 1.7% higher to US$ 2.3 billion.

Although still in the red, Drake and Scull International reduced their 2016 loss by 16.2% to US$ 214 million, with a Q4 loss of US$ 133 million (compared to a US$ 3 million profit in the same period of 2015). 2016 revenue was down 22.6% to US$ 886 million.

Despite a 35% hike in 2016 revenue to US$ 79 million, Marka reported an annual loss of US$ 7 million. The Dubai-listed group still remains confident with the regional retail sector, despite the current difficult economic environment.

Amanat Holdings saw annual profits down 24.1% to US$ 10 million with Q4 just breaking even, down 96.2% on 2015’s profit of US$ 11 million.

Gulf Navigation recorded their best annual figures since 2008, as profits surged by almost sevenfold to US$ 37 million, with Q4 returns 20.0% higher at US$ 1.5 million. However, much of the gain arose from a US$ 25 million write back of a “derecognition” of liabilities.

Meanwhile Amlak Finance came in with a 23.0% fall in 2016 net profits to US$ 29 million. Although revenue was 63.0% higher, at US$ 207 million, net operating profit dropped by 13.3% to US$ 66 million; its total assets also dipped 4.6% to US$ 1.77 billion.

Dubai-listed Shuaa Capital reduced its Q4 loss by US$ 39 million to US$ 5 million despite revenue being 12.5% lower at US$ 10 million. Revenue for the year was down 2.2% at US$ 47 million, whilst the loss narrowed by 30.0% to US$ 36 million.

Emirates Investment Bank saw profit up 20.3% to US$ 92 million, with both total assets and customers’ deposits higher – by 12.1% to US$ 3.2 billion and 8.2% to US$ 935 million respectively.

Dana posted major falls in both Q4 and 2016 profits by 94.8% to US$ 7 million and 77.1% to US$ 33 million respectively. It is estimated that the company is still owed nearly US$ 1 billion from debtors in Kurdistan (US$ 713 million) and Egypt (US$ 265 million). This week, the Dubai-listed company won a ruling in its four-year dispute with the Kurdistan administration over certain rights and outstanding payments.

The DFM opened Sunday at 3683 and closed 0.9% lower on Thursday (16 February 2017) at 3651. Volumes were significantly lower, closing the day at 442 million shares, valued at US$ 211 million, (cf 866 million shares for US$ 354 million, the previous Thursday). Emaar Properties traded US$ 0.03 higher, to US$ 2.08, with Arabtec tanking, losing 23.0% on the week to close at US$ 0.28.

On Tuesday, Brent Crude nudged US$ 0.07 higher to close on $ 55.81, with gold continuing its recent upward moves with a 0.9% increase (US$ 11) to US$ 1,240 by 16 February 2017.

Latest figures indicate that the 11-member OPEC cartel has cut production by about 1.2 million bpd to 29.92 million bpd largely in line with cuts agreed late last year. At the same time, Russia and ten other countries had agreed to reduce by 0.6 million bpd but have only managed 40% of that total.

It is reported that talks between Abu Dhabi’s IPIC and Malaysia’s 1MDB fund have broken down at the London Court of International Arbitration. The case could drag on for a further 18 months before a decision about the Abu Dhabi state fund’s US$ 6.5 billion claim could be reached.

With a Q4 GDP growth of 0.2%, Japan recorded an annual gain of 1.0% (well down on the 1.4% growth forecast expected at the end of Q3); although the figures disappointed the market, the country has recorded growth for four straight quarters.

China reported its lowest level of foreign exchange reserves in almost six years, with a January return of just under US$ 3 trillion. The prime cause was the weak yuan which fell by 6.6% to the US$ resulting in the Central Bank having to prop up its currency by selling its dollars. (interestingly, Germany has a bigger current account surplus than China whilst the USA has the world’s biggest deficit).

The IMF has reiterated that the US economy continues to improve under the new Trump administration. In 2016, the economy expanded 1.6% but the world body now expects growth over the next two years to increase by 2.3% and 2.5%. It also expects the global economy to marginally improve on 2016’s 3.1% growth with forecasts of 3.4% and 3.6% in 2017 and 2018.

However, the country’s 2016 trade deficit topped a massive US$ 502 billion – its highest level since 2012. The main driver behind this was the strong greenback as trade deficits with China, Japan and Germany fell to US$ 347 billion, US$ 65 billion and US$ 69 billion respectively.

January inflation figures saw the UK’s consumer price inflation rise two notches to 1.8% – its highest rate in over 30 months – driven mainly by the weak pound pushing up imported prices. This is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast of inflation touching 2.0% in Q1 and rising to 2.7% over the next twelve months.

UK’s December trade figures pointed to a monthly 7.2% reduction in the deficit to US$ 4.12 billion as exports to non-EU countries surged by US$ 1.37 billion. Overall, both exports – at US$ 60.86 billion – and imports of US$ 64.98 billion were at record highs.

This week, the RTA announced a world first – the trial run of a successful autonomous aerial vehicle (AAV) capable of carrying a human. The Chinese-built EHANG 184 has been compared to a driverless flying car, capable of carrying a passenger for a maximum of 30 minutes at a cruising height of 3k ft, with a speed of 160 kph. The craft, with eight main propellers, will allow a passenger to choose a selected route and then sit back and land at the chosen destination. Come July, Dubai residents could see more than a Spirit In The Sky!

Dubai Properties has awarded a US$ 272 million contract to Dubai Contracting Company for the construction of 1/JBR – a 46-storey luxury tower; the development will include 161 2-4 bedroom apartments, along with several 5-bedrooom penthouses, with the average price for a 2-bedroom unit starting at US$ 1.47 million. Enabling work began last year and project completion is due by Q4 2019.

This week saw the launch of Plazzo Residence in Jumeirah Village Triangle. Prices for studios, 1-bedroom and 2-bed apartments will start at US$ 109k, US$ 191k and US$ 286k respectively.

Despite all its problems – including a strong greenback, Brexit and a Saudi economic slowdown – Dubai 2016 tourist numbers climbed 4.9% to 14.9 million, well on its way to hit its 20 million target by 2020. To reach this, it needs an annual 8% growth over the next four years – no doubt Expo will see this figure being surpassed.

In partnership with the Bin Haider Group, the Rezidor Hotel Group has announced that two Radisson Blu hotels will open in 2019, in addition to

a 432-key property on Dubai Waterfront, set to open by June 2017. The two hotels will be located in International Media Production Zone (and will have 356 rooms) and Dubai Studio City, with 290 keys.

Central Hotels expect to double its portfolio with the opening of three 4-star hotels this year – two on Palm Jumeirah and the third in Business Bay. This will bring the Dubai-based developer’s room total to 1.2k keys, all located in the emirate.

UAE-based Smartotels has announced the launch of its first flagship brand Form Hotel to be built in Dubai’s Al Jeddaf area. Although no financing details were available, the 143-room property will open in Q1 2018.

Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s head, Hamad Buamim, has a part-solution to assist the ailing retail sector – malls should consider reducing rent to compensate for a marked contraction in retailers’ turnover figures in 2016. The sector has also not been helped by the inflow of 260 sq mt of new retail space, (the highest annual volume in seven years), with a further 600k sq mt due to be released over the next two years. Furthermore e-commerce is on an upward curve and represents another problem for traditional retail outlets.

MAF is to spend US$ 90 million over the next year to upgrade its City Centre Mirdif car park, as it adds 1k new parking places and improves accessibility.

As expected, Emaar Properties has agreed a US$ 332 million settlement with Orient Insurance for the claim following the 2015 NYE fire at the Address Downtown Dubai.

The Al Shafar Group of Companies (ASGC) is planning to spend US$ 48 million to double the size of its steel fabrication plant in Dubai Industrial Park; US$ 27 million will be spent on building four new facilities, with the remaining US$ 21 million balance for new machinery. The project will take up to 18 months to complete, following which annual production will be ramped up by 30%, whilst the payroll will reach 2.3k. The Dubai-based family company has other construction interests including contracting, MEP, ready-mix concrete and a precast concrete factory.

Apple has announced the recall of 89k iPhone 6s in Dubai, manufactured in September/October 2015. The Chinese made phones have defective batteries but present no safety issues.

It is reported that the Dubai government is in the final throes of securing a seven-year US$ 3 billion syndicated loan to be used to part finance expansion at the new US$ 35 billion Al Maktoum International. On completion in 2028, the airport will have the capacity to handle 220 million passengers and 12 million tonnes of cargo every year. The government will also be looking for a further US$ 9.8 billion to finance the Expo 2020 site – US$ 7.0 billion – and the Dubai metro extension (US$ 2.8 billion).

In a bid to entice highly talented and better qualified talent to the country, the UAE cabinet has approved an integrated entry visa scheme. The country aims to be a global talent hub, with the first phase of the strategy focusing on educational, health and tourism visas.

According to a recent PwC report, the country will need a further 175k places in the K12 segment of which 90% will be placed by private schools. It estimates that Dubai will need an extra 50 schools to house the additional inflow of 74.5k students. Al Najad Education is keen to jump on the bandwagon and has plans to double its school/nursery student roll to 28k over the next two years. The Dubai-based education provider is expecting to invest up to US$ 150 million to further expand the business.

The latest Brand Finance Global 500 report indicates that the Emirates brand – having gained 170% the previous year – has shed 19.7% of its value to US$ 6.1 billion. This fall has seen the airline lose its premier regional spot to Saudi Telecom Company (valued at US$ 6.2 billion) as it moves down 83 places in the global ranking to 264^th. Meanwhile, Etisalat, valued at US$ 5.5 billion, moved up 111 places to 293^rd.

DP World announced that in 2016, gross container volumes expanded by 2.2% on a like-for-like basis and 3.2% up on a reported basis to 63.7 million twenty-foot equivalent units. Interestingly, in Q4, gross reported volumes climbed 6%, compared to the same period in 2015.

Dubai Customs and Dubai Trade have joined with IBM in an initiative to advance Dubai’s government blockchain strategy; one of its aims is to introduce a trade finance and logistics solution for the import and re-export process of goods that will see parties receiving real-time information.

Spending on beauty care products in the UAE was estimated last year at US$ 2.1 million, equivalent to 22.6% of the total GCC spend. Analysts expect these figures to rise by 28.6% to US$ 2.7 billion (UAE) and 46.2% to US$ 13.6 billion (GCC) over the next four years.

Just to emphasise what everybody already knows, Colliers latest Cost Benchmarking report reiterated that cash flow remains the biggest issue facing the local construction sector, with sustained payment delays continuing to blight the industry. (Indeed, the French credit insurer, Coface, estimated that payments were delayed on average 123 days longer than the contracted payment schedule). However, some good news indicated that over the past two years, commodity pricing has remained flat although some items – including aggregate, concrete, glass and sanitary ware – headed north whilst the likes of cement, diesel, switches and timber fell.

The January Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index, with a 55.3 reading, indicates that the local non-oil private sector is in rude health. Most indicators – including output, new work, increased payroll numbers, faster new order growth and export orders – all tracked higher.

Three-year old Dubai-based Emirates Reit has joined forces with RAK’s Al Hamra Real Estate Development and National Bonds to establish the country’s first residential real estate investment trust, comprising 500 units, 74% of which are in Ras Al Khaimah and the balance in Dubai. The value of the investment is US$ 141 million, split almost equally between property in Dubai and RAK. It is thought that a further US$ 141 million will be raised prior to the company being floated on a local bourse, possibly later in the year.

The Commercial Bank of Dubai was one of the last big players to release its 2016 accounts, posting a 6.7% hike in operating profit to US$ 433 million but a 6.5% decline in net profit to US$ 272 million, driven by increased provisions. Both total assets and loans/advances were higher by 10.7% to US$ 17.5 billion and 7.5% to US$ 11.4 billion.

Despite a 12% decline in 2016 trading volumes to US$ 36.2 billion, the DFM managed to confine the fall in profit to just 2.9% over the year to US$ 69 million; revenues dropped by 2.6% to US$ 120 million. However, the bourse ended the year on a high, with Q4 revenue and profits both heading north – by 89% to US$ 36 million and 406% to US$ 21 million respectively.

The DFM opened Sunday at 3701 and  closed on Tuesday (07 February 2017) at 3718. Volumes were slightly lower, closing the day at 593 million shares, valued at US$ 286 million, (cf 691 million shares for US$ 283 million, the previous Thursday). Emaar Properties traded US$ 0.07 higher, to US$ 2.04, with Arabtec remaining flat at US$ 0.37.

On Tuesday, Brent Crude shed US$ 0.51, since the previous Thursday, to close on $ 56.05, with gold continuing its recent upward moves with a 3.9% increase (US$ 46) at US$ 1,236 by 07 February 2017.

Although BP’s Q4 profits (measured by underlying replacement cost profit) more than doubled to US$ 400 million, the annual figure fell 56.3% to US$ 2.58 billion. The oil giant is still paying for the Deepwater Horizon accident and the US$ 799 million charge has brought the total cost to a massive US$ 62.6 billion. With that disaster almost finalised – and with oil prices nudging higher than the average US$ 44 last year – the oil giant can look forward to a more stable environment in 2017. It expects to spend up to US$ 17 billion in capital expenditure this year.

Aldi is now the fifth largest UK supermarket chain with 6.2% of the total market share, behind Tesco (28.1%), Sainsbury’s (16.5%), Asda (15.6%) and Morrisons (10.9%). Less than a decade ago, the German interloper accounted for less than 2% of the market but in 2016 alone attracted an additional 826k more shoppers to its 700 stores. (It can only be a matter of time to see the likes of Aldi and Lidl trading in Dubai).

In line with most airlines, Ryanair posted a 7.8% fall in Q3 earnings to US$ 102 million, as fares fell (by 17%) in a highly competitive market, with surplus capacity; however, load factors did reach a record 95%. The company, with a market value of US$ 19.2 billion, still expects an annual profit of US$ 1.45 billion by the end of the next quarter.

Although its 2016 profits declined 2.7% to US$ 9.43 billion (including US$ 500 million in foreign exchange losses), GM posted a US$ 12 million profit in North America. Consequently, its US hourly paid workers will receive a US$ 12k bonus (based on US$ 1k for every US$ 1 billion of profit).

RBS, still 70% owned by the UK government, is planning a US$ 425 million bonus pay-out. This figure is well down on the US$ 1.8 billion pot of 2009 and 5% down on last year’s figure; however, it comes at a time when the bank is expected to announce one of its biggest losses since its 2008 government bailout. Indeed there are not too many companies that can afford to pay bonuses when losses are being made!

In Italy, UniCredit, having posted a massive US$ 12.6 billion 2016 loss, on the back of loan writes downs, started this week trying to raise US$ 13.9 billion to rebuild the bank’s capital base. It is little wonder that the three major shareholders, Capital Research (6.7%), Aabar (5%) and Black Rock (5%), have yet committed to exercise their rights; along with all other shareholders, failure to do so could result in a 70%+ dilution of their shares.  Under a December restructuring plan, UniCredit will have to offload US$ 18.9 billion in bad debts, as it cuts costs by retrenching 3.9k staff, with a further 10.1k to leave over the next two years.

This week, the IMF reiterated that it believes that Greece needs further debt relief from its creditors but remains unsure on which direction the country’s finances should take. This is in contrast to the eurozone who are reluctant to introduce another “hair-cut” on the current debt and wants Greece to work towards a 3.5% of GDP budget surplus, with the IMF maintaining the feasibility of a 1.5% surplus. The dispute will not go away and will continue to delay a further payment of US$ 92 billion bail-out funds – and could well impact on forthcoming elections, especially in Germany.

Despite President Trump saying the Pentagon’s most expensive defence programme was “out of control”, the Department of Defense has ordered a further batch of 90 F-35 jets from Lockheed Martin for US$ 95 million. Over the next three decades, it is expected that a further 2.4k planes will be bought.

Another busy week for President Trump – on Friday, he signed an executive order to scale back on the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and some of its major regulations. The aim is to cut back on over-regulation in the financial services sector, introduced to counteract the banks’ shortfalls and failings culminating in the GFC. Not surprisingly, the ECB president, Mario Draghi, voiced his displeasure with Mr Trump’s actions, saying that a relaxation of banking rules is the “last thing we need”.

Improving data indicates that the doom and gloom messengers, espousing a sinking US economy following President Trump’s election, have once again been proved wrong. December new orders for manufactured goods jumped 1.3% (following a 2.3% November fall) whilst orders for non-durable goods were 3.1% higher. Also higher for the last month of the year were shipments of manufactured goods (by 2.2%) and inventories of manufactured goods by 0.1%. To top off the good news reading, January non-farm payroll employment was up to 227k, following an upward December revision to 175k. However, the annual rate of average hourly employee earnings growth slowed by 0.3% to 2.5% in January – this may be an indicator that the Fed will not be pushing for a rate increase until at least mid-year.

Co-founders, 26-year old Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy could be the big winners if their six-year old company, Snapchat, realises US$ 3 billion in the sale of a small percentage of shares which could value the messaging app at US$ 25 billion – and their stakes at US$ 5 billion. How can a company that recorded sales of only US$ 404 million and made a loss of US$ 515 million be worth that much money? Mama Weer All Crazee Now!

Early 2017 property reports seem to have different findings. JLL estimate that only 15k units were handed over last year and this was the highest annual number in five years. ValuStrat put this number even lower at 11k which was 33% of initial estimates of 33k at the beginning of 2016. Most reports seem to indicate that the 2016 market was at best flat but could not agree on the rates of decline. It did seem that lower cost housing was performing better and elsewhere price falls varied between different locations and different types of units (apartments generally holding up better than villas).

What is worrying are the differences and lack of agreement between studies on what is historical and factual data. If consultancies cannot agree on what has happened in the past, there is little hope of agreeing what will happen in the future.

There is a divergence of views on which way and when prices will move. Cluttons do not expect a recovery until at least the end of 2017, whilst Phidar Advisory believe that the market will remain subdued with a continuation of “further gradual softening”. Knight Frank stated that prices in the mainstream market fell 7% in 2015 and at a slower 5% rate last year, whist the falls in prime areas were at 4% and 5% in 2016. They now expect prices to rise from mid-year. In contrast, ValuStrat indicate that property prices had fallen 13.7% since their peak in 2014 but now expect a cyclical soft recovery stage. In the same camp are Core Savills, who have noted that prices have already started rising in the mid-market sector, and JLL, who forecast price rises in 2017. Now these are four of several firms that are calling the bottom of the market indicating that for Dubai property, the only way is up!

Arab Health should bring some joy to the embattled local hospitality industry, as organisers expect 120k visitors to attend the 4-day exhibition that ends today (02 February). The 5.1% increase in exhibitors to 4.4k indicates the fact that Dubai is now considered a world-class hub for the healthcare medical sector.

EY’s MENA Hotel Benchmark confirms earlier reports that Dubai maintains its position as the leading regional market despite most indicators heading south. The emirate boasts the highest occupancy rate (80%) and RevPar (US$ 200) but has seen 2016 average room rates and room yields fall by 7.8% to US$268 and 7.4% to US$ 200.

Riviera Group has launched its 7^th project in Jumeirah Village Circle. The 22-storey, US$ 34 million building will house 144 apartments, with prices starting at US$ 157k, and two ground floor retail units. Completion of La Riviera Apartments is expected by the end of next year.

Al Shaya has signed an agreement with Nakheel to lease 100k sq ft of shop space in the upcoming Al Khail Avenue Mall. The Kuwaiti retail conglomerate has many well-known brands in its portfolio including American Eagle, Boots, Debenhams, Footlocker, Mothercare and PF Chang’s. The massive development, located in Jumeirah Village Triangle, will have 1.2 million sq ft of retail space and will house 350 shops, along with dining outlets and a cinema.

With 2017 revenue set to decline by 2.8% and infrastructure spending 26.6% higher, Moody’s expects Dubai’s US$ 680 million budget deficit, equivalent to 0.6% of GDP, to have little impact on public debt levels. It also expects the emirate’s GDP to grow faster than in 2016 – from 2.4% to 2.9%. Dubai has managed to cut its direct government debt levels from 33% to 25% over the past six years but the ratings agency expects this figure to nudge higher to 30% by next year. However, Dubai’s total public debt is relatively high at 128.7% of GDP – up from 113% over the past five years.

The local economy will receive a welcome boost when World Expo 2020 awards 47 construction contracts, valued at US$ 3 billion, this year. According to the IMF, the trade fair will result in GDP growth of over 5%.

With no new establishments opening this academic year, GEMS Education will only be recruiting up to 1.2k new teachers for the 2017/2018 school year (compared to 1.7k the previous year). The management company operates 47 schools in the UAE and 250 globally.

On Monday, the world’s leading optical and digital precision technology company, Olympus launched its new regional HQ, located in Dubai Science Park. The 2k sq mt facility will be responsible for 72 countries in MEA and will report to Hamburg-based Olympus Europa.

Also this week, printing and packaging company Delta Group opened a US$ 200 million, 250k sq ft plant in Dubai’s National Industries Park. The company has an 800 workforce.

Local delivery app Fetchr, that employs 1k in the region, is expected to finalise its Series B funding by the end of March; last June, the 4-year old Dubai-based start-up received the largest ever ME Series A funding at US$ 11 million from the leading venture capital (VC) firm in the world, New Enterprise Associates.

Although the number of 2016 cases heard by the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Courts was similar to a year earlier, the value of these, at US$ 1.6 billion, was 5% higher. Of this total, the DIFC Court of First Instance reported a 22% hike in case value to US$ 734 million.

DWC reported an 84.5% hike in 2016 passenger numbers to 851k, with Q4 up 39.9% to 248k; however, actual aircraft movements dipped 5.6% to 39k. Surprisingly freight only showed a marginal 0.8% rise to 898k tonnes. (Although IATA reported that 2016 regional freight volumes jumped 6.9%, and 11.2% in December, compared to a year earlier, the rate of growth for ME carriers was the lowest since the GFC).

Fuel prices went up yesterday for the second consecutive month – this time, Special-95 jumped 5.0% to US$ 0.515 per litre, with diesel rising 3.1% to US$ 0.545. This is in line with recent global oil price hikes.

Already with a presence in two South American countries – Columbia and Peru – Abraaj has bought a majority stake in a Chilean home design company, Casaideas. Founded in 1993, the company also has outlets in Bolivia and Peru.

Having seen a 3.2% increase in their levels of personal debt (including loans and credit cards) to US$ 11.6k, it now seems that UAE residents have started to tighten their financial belts, with average debt levels expected to decline. Furthermore, with banks having to account for falling deposit balances as well as to accommodate the commercial and public sectors, bank liquidity is tight. Latest figures indicate that the total of personal loans is US$ 118.3 billion, of which US$ 80.4 billion (68.7%) are for business reasons.

The UAE Central Bank confirmed that last year the country’s total foreign assets fell 8.9% to US$ 84.7 billion, as foreign deposits jumped 29.2% to US$ 40.3 billion, year on year.

If the current market rally continues to mid-year, it appears that Dubai Investments (DI) may well start IPOs for some of its subsidiaries, with Emicool top of the list. Meanwhile, the company posted a 9.8% hike in 2016 net profits to US$ 365 million, (including a US$ 51 million gain on the disposal of a subsidiary) as revenue surged 14.8% to US$ 845 million.

ICD, government-owned and a 12.5% shareholder in DI, also announced its third debt listing on Nasdaq Dubai – a 10-year US$ 1 billion sukuk. (This has strengthened the Dubai bourse’s claim to be the world’s largest exchange for sukuk listings with a current total listing of US$ 47.2 billion).

Within weeks, the parent company of Du, Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co, will launch Virgin Mobile as the third operator in the country. Although its growth trend is heading upwards, Du has had to lay off staff in a cost cutting restructuring programme, resulting from increasing government royalty payments.

Nakheel posted a massive 13.2% hike in 2016 profits to its highest-ever mark of US$ 1.35 billion, with Q4 22.3% higher at US$ 260 million. The results were helped by growths of 70% and 50% in the developer’s retail and hospitality sectors. During the year, the company also repaid all of the outstanding US$ 1.17 billion of its trade creditors sukuk.

Majid Al Futtaim continues to go from strength to strength with a 9.0% hike in revenue to US$ 8.15 billion which drove a 8% increase in EBITDA  (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation), to US$ 1.12 billion. The private Dubai family company has total assets valued at US$ 14.4 billion, with a net debt balance of US$ 2.6 billion.

Emirates Refreshments Co posted disappointing Q4 figures with a massive 92.3% dive in profit to just 3k, as 2016 profits dropped 16.4% to US$ 958k.

Tabreed reported a 6.0% increase in 2016 profit, with revenue rising at the same rate to US$ 349 million. The district cooling company had added a further 74k refrigeration tonnes (including Dubai Parks & Resorts) to its capacity in 2016 and last month acquired a plant servicing ICT’s Nation Towers in Abu Dhabi. 63 of the 71 plants operated by Tabreed are located in the UAE.

Although revenue showed a 2.4% hike to US$ 1.36 billion, flydubai posted a 68.6% fall in 2016 profit to US$ 9 million on the back of “a difficult pricing and operating environment”. Passenger numbers were 14.4% higher at 10.4 million, with the budget airline increasing the size of its fleet of 737-800 aircraft to 57 over the year

Aramex posted a massive improvement in Q4, with profits climbing 128.8% to US$ 36 million. Although the Dubai-based courier company also showed an 18.1% rise in revenue to US$ 316 million, it still maintains a cautious outlook on future prospects as economic uncertainties continue. Two important shareholders are Mohammed Alabbar (16.45%) and Australia Post (4.5%) – in October it established an e-commerce JV with this junior international shareholder.

Emaar Malls, 85% owned by its parent Emaar Properties – with the balance by retail investors – belied the current malaise in the retail sector by recording a 3.9% hike in Q4 profits to US$ 123 million and an annual 12.6% revenue increase to US$ 510 million.

The DFM opened Sunday at 3701 and, after another flat week,, lost 77 points (2.3%) to close Thursday (02 February 2017) on 3624. Volumes were slightly higher, closing the last day of the week, at 691 million shares, valued at US$ 283 million, (cf 601 million shares for US$ 266 million, the previous Thursday). Emaar Properties traded US$ 0.10 lower, to US$ 1.97, with Arabtec remaining flat at US$ 0.37. In January, all three indicators had headed north – the DFMI a tidy 3.2% higher at 3643, Emaar Properties up US$ 0.08 to US$ 2.02 and Arabtec a tad US$ 0.01 higher at US$ 0.37.

This week Brent Crude gained US$ 0.32 to close on $ 56.56. Gold also moved in the right direction with a 2.4% increase (US$ 29) at US$ 1,190 by Thursday (02 February 2017). For the month of January, Brent traded US$ 1.33 lower (2.3%) to US$ 55.49, whilst gold was US$ 61 higher (5.3%) at US$ 1,212.

It is reported that Royal Dutch Shell is to sell a large portion of its North Sea assets, including nine of its oil fields, to Chrysaor for up to US$ 3.8 billion. The Anglo Dutch energy colossus wants to focus efforts to streamline its portfolio, following last year’s US$ 45.8 billion acquisition of BG Group. It also reported 8% dips in both Q4 and 2016 profits to US$ 1 billion and US$ 3.5 billion respectively, even though prices had more than doubled over the past 12 months.

Despite taking a US$ 2 billion impairment charge, in writing down its value of oil and gas reserves, Exxon Mobil still managed to post a US$ 1.7 billion Q4 profit – a 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2015.

Q4 figures from Facebook were more than impressive as both revenue and profit surged – by 53.6% to US$ 2.3 billion and 131% to US$ 3.7 billion respectively. The world’s leading social network saw user numbers up 17% to 1.86 billion. However, a US court has found Facebook guilty of illegally using Zenimax computer code to launch its own VR headset and ordered a US$ 500 million payment to be made for this infringement.

Apple also reported strong Q4 figures with net sales up 3.0% to US$ 78.4 billion – its strongest Q revenue ever, following three successive quarters of declining revenue. Unit sales of the iPhone were 4.7% higher at 78.3 million, accounting for US$ 54.3 billion (69.3%) of the company’s turnover.

As expected, VW (with 10.3 million vehicle sales and including Audi, Porsche and Skoda) deposed Toyota (10.175 million) as the world’s top selling auto maker. This achievement is more remarkable considering VW has had to deal with the fall-out from the emissions-cheating software scandal which cost the company US$ 4.3 billion in fines and penalties, levied by the US Department of Justice.

For its nefarious role in a Russian money-laundering scheme, Deutsche Bank has been hit with a US$ 603 million fine by US and UK regulators. Illicit activity between 2011 and 2015 resulted in the illegal movement of some US$ 10 billion out of Russia.

Another financial institution in the news is HBOS with two former bankers, along with four so-called turnaround consultants, found guilty of bribery and fraud that saw customers and shareholders being fleeced of several hundred million US$. The scheme involved the bank recommending its clients to use a firm of consultants to help the business with their “experience and expertise”. The opposite happened with the “consultants” charging high fees and using their relationship with HBOS to bully business owners and in many cases strip them of their assets and take over ownership.

Ant Financial, the digital payments division of China’s Alibaba, has bought MoneyGram for US$ 880 million. The US-based on-payment firm has 350k global outlets, whilst the e-commerce giant has over 630 million users.

In a move that surprised the market, Tesco is to acquire Booker for US$ 4.6 billion. The low profile food wholesaler operates the UK’s biggest cash and carry network, with 200 branches and also owns store chain brands, including Budgens, Londis and Premier, which cover over 5k sites. The market acted positively with Tesco shares up 9% and Booker surging 16%.

Sinking DVD and home entertainment sales have seen struggling Sony posting a US$ 1 billion write down in its accounts. To make up for any loss because of this impairment charge, the Japanese conglomerate will divest shares in its medical web service M3.

The Australian economy took advantage of improving commodity prices, with the latest quarter’s terms of trade surging 12.2%, as export prices soared by 12.4% whilst imports were up by a marginal 0.2%. For the year ending December, both figures were higher by 12.4% and 4.6% respectively. Despite global political and economic uncertainty, the “lucky country” continues to confound observers; the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Survey has a reading of 118.1 – well above the 100-point division between pessimism and optimism.

Although the Thai economy is being hamstrung by political uncertainty, its economy grew by 3.2% on the back of tourism (which accounts for 11% of GDP and saw a 9.2% increase in visitor numbers to 32.6 million) and further investment in military government projects.

The Bank of Japan has upgraded its October growth forecasts for the country from 1.0% to 1.4% and from 1.3% to 1.5% for fiscal 2017. It was also confident the inflation rate would reach its 2.0% target by fiscal 2018. Japan’s exports and manufacturing data indicate an economic upturn driven by a weaker yen, improving commodity prices and confidence returning to the global economy. Like the rest of the world, it has to closely monitor what is happening with Trump-era monetary and economic policy, in Europe with Brexit and debt issues in Greece, Italy and other countries, as well as geo-political turmoil in many troubled hot spots.

With inflation moving higher towards its target level of 2.0%, and unemployment at its lowest level in almost eight years (but still at 9.6%), there is every chance that the ECB may curtail its QE programme sooner than planned. It currently stands at US$ 86 billion a month to be scaled back to US$ 65 billion in April, prior to closing at the end of 2017. Q4 growth came in at 0.5%, pointing to a 1.7% annual rate. However, the Brussels bureaucracy will have nagging worries on whether events, including Brexit, Trump policies and elections – in France, Germany and Netherlands – could scupper further short-term progress.

In Q4, the UK economy continued to amaze the Remain camp by expanding a further 0.6%, driven by confident consumer spending and a burgeoning service sector. Despite fake reporting and scaremongering prior to the Brexit vote, the country grew by over 2% and the feared slowdown has not materialised. Indeed even Mark Carney of the Bank of England has upgraded his growth forecast from November’s 1.4% to an updated 2.0% less than three months later.

As he had already indicated pre-election, President Trump has called on the pharmaceutical sector to cut “astronomical” drug prices, as well as imploring the industry to manufacture more of their products in the US. In return, he has promised to cut taxes and speed up the approval protocol for new medicines.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, still in the range of 0.5% to 0.75%, having raised the benchmark indicator by 0.25% in December 2016 – only its second increase in ten years. With near full employment and the prospect of higher inflation, hitting 2% this year, (as the president is on record indicating tax cuts, higher public spending and more deregulation), the Fed appears to be bullish on the country’s economy.

The National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology has announced that a deep low pressure over the UAE this weekend will see temperatures dropping to below zero degrees on the mountains and the risk of snow in parts of the northern emirates. It is a pity that both the Dubai Tour Cycling and the Dubai Omega Desert Classic (including one Eldrick Tont Woods) will be impacted by the inclement weather and blowing sands – this weekend, the country is experiencing a Hazy Shade of Winter!

The total realty transactions of 60.6k, as reported by the Dubai Land Department, topped US$ 70. 6 billion last year – slightly down compared to 2015’s 63.7k valued at US$ 72.7 billion. The government agency expects further sustainable growth this year, as 134 new projects, totalling US$ 27.2 billion, have already been launched. UAE nationals, with 7k citizens spending US$ 6.0 billion, were the top investors, followed by Indians (6.2k investing US$ 3.3 billion), Pakistanis and Britons. The five top sales locations were Business Bay (3.5k investments totalling US$ 1.7 billion), Dubai Marina, Jebel Ali 1, Burj Khalifa and Warsan 1. (The DLD has reported an encouraging start to the year withproperty deals in the first 15 days totalling US$ 3.3 billion).

Cavendish Maxwell indicate that 16.4k new homes were handed over in 2016 and that a massive 61k, including 13k carried over from last year, are scheduled for completion over the next 12 months. The consultancy estimated that average apartment and villa rents fell, year on year, by 3.4% and 3.6% respectively, but the rate of decline flattened in Q4. CBRE put the annual rent increases at 4.6% and 6.5% respectively. The consultancy sees a more stable sales environment this year, as investor confidence improves.

In contrast, Al Masah Capital anticipates that over the next two years, 57k residential units will be handed over, 30k of which will take place this year. Both studies seem to indicate that there is some sort of equilibrium between supply and demand occurring, as the workforce expands ahead of 2020. CBRE expects that 70k units could be delivered over the next three years.

Following last year’s success of “Amaranta”, Dubai Properties has launched “La Quinta” at its Dubailand’s Villanova community. The development will cater for larger families, with unit sizes ranging from 2.2k sq ft to 3.9k sq ft.

Nakheel has released tender papers for its US$ 1.36 billion Deira Islands Boulevard project of sixteen 21-storey residential towers. Each tower will house 670 apartments, 65 townhouses and retail/recreational facilities. Located around the 6.5 million sq ft Deira Mall, the community will be home to 10k residents.

As the move to introduce more budget hotels gathers pace, AccorHotels is considering two new brands for the Dubai market, in addition to its existing Ibis and Mercure names; Mama Shelter and Jo&Joe are both scheduled to be rolled out in France next year. The latter is in competition with Airbnb, mixing the best of private-rental, hostel and hotel formats.

Despite a lackluster 2016 for the retail sector, it seems to be full steam ahead for new projects this year with a huge US$ 4 billion investment expected, compared to US$ 502 million and US$ 812 million in the previous two years. According to a recent MEED study, major developments will include Phase 1 of the World Mall (US$ 1.0 billion), Dubai Creek Harbour retail district (US$1.0 billion), Deira Island Mall (US$ 900 million) and Dubai Hills Mall (US$ 763 million). There is no doubt that the retail sector expects a major turnaround in business as Expo 2020 approaches.

The RTA and DP World have signed two transport agreements. The first relates to taxi services to and from the Hamdan bin Mohammed Cruise Terminal, whilst the other will see further cooperation to streamline road transport operations in and around Jebel Ali Port. The local cruise sector is booming, with an expected 30% hike in numbers to 650k (and a 16% rise in cruise ships to 134).

Phase 3 of the 800 MW MBR Solar Park will start by the end of the month, with the engineering, procurement and construction contract being awarded to an international consortium led by GranSolar of Spain. The first (200 MW) of three stages of this 16 sq km phase will be completed within 18 months, with the next two (600 MW) finalised by 2020.

DP World has signed yet another agreement in Kazakhstan – this time to develop an economic zone in Aktau on the Caspian Sea. It is hoped that shipping capacity can be expanded and a logistics area developed.

In a bid to generate extra revenue, Emirates will allow its Skywards Blue members to pay to use its premium lounges in Dubai. The fee for a maximum 4-hour stay will be US$ 200 in the first class lounge and US$ 100 in business class.

As part of its long term strategy, Expo 2020 Dubai has initiated a further phase of a US$ 100 million “Expo Live” programme to assist, finance, accelerate and promote creative projects from individuals, SMEs and other entities. The low-key introduction of this pillar is the first of four half yearly cycles to find suitable projects and it is hoped that it will be a catalyst for future innovation. An earlier program drew 575 applicants from 71 countries, with 29.2% of those projects now undergoing technical reviews.

Compareit4me.com estimate that UAE credit card applications jumped by 55% last year. Over 50% of cards were provided by American Express (22.5%), Citibank (15.0%) and ADCB (13.3%). Despite tough economic conditions, Visa has seen a 10% year-on-year regional growth in 2016 card transactions in the region. Quite often, credit cards prove more profitable to banking institutions, rather than their customers who often get caught up in a debt trap.

Having grown 2.7% last year, the Dubai economy is expected to improve to 3.1%, according to HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum. This is slightly less than the 3.3% expounded by the IMF. Late last year, the government announced its annual budget of US$ 12.9 billion (3% higher than in 2016) which included a 27% hike in infrastructure spending ahead of Expo 2020 – this and the uptick in the oil price will encourage further investment that makes the growth forecast achievable. The emirate expects a US$ 681 million deficit this year, equating to 0.6% of its GDP.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Economy, HE Sultan Al Mansoori, has reiterated that he expects UAE growth to remain steady at 3.0%, with non-oil contributions to GDP up 0.2% to 3.8%.

Still the region’s most attractive destination for foreign direct investments, the UAE saw US$ 10.0 billion flowing inro the country last year with an accumulated year end balance of US$ 119 billion. Outflows – at US$ 9.3 billion were 3.3% higher than in 2015.

Majid Al Futtaim was in the news this week on two fronts. The holding company, with a BBB Fitch and S&P rating, is reportedly in bank discussions for a US$ 1.5 billion revolving credit facility to be used for refinancing existing debt. Following reports that Amazon.com and India’s Flipkart Online Services are no longer interested in acquiring Dubai-based Souq.com, it seems that MAF is in negotiations to buy the site. The 12-year old e-commerce business could be worth in excess of US$ 1 billion.

Abraaj Group is planning to divest its 50% stake in The Entertainer which it acquired almost five years ago. The private equity firm expects that the local hailing app, Careem, will go public to raise the finance required to grow in regional markets. Currently the company has 4  million registered users and a fleet of 90k drivers.

It seems that some banks may be unhappy at the proposed pricing for the US$ 1.2 billion financing package for the Metro extension – the balance, US$ 1.6 billion, will be picked up by export credit agencies. Last year, the government set out its parameters for the loan that included a rate of no more than 200 basis points over Libor, with miscellaneous fees capped at 115 bps. For 10-year loan tenor, some banks consider a 250bps margin more appropriate. The government could be in the market for at least US$ 42 billion when projects like DWC (US$ 35 billion) and Expo 2020 (US$ 7 billion) are brought into the equation.

Despite a 3.0% fall in total income to US$ 4.0 billion, the first of the season’s earnings reports saw Emirates NBD posting a 2.0% rise in 2016 profit to US$ 1.97 billion: an improvement in impaired loans helped the cause and offset the 1.0% fall in non-interest income. Three major indicators headed north – total assets by 10% to US$ 12.2 billion, deposits (8% to US$ 8.5 billion) and loans by 7% to US$ 7.9 billion. During the year, the bank raised US$ 5.5 billion of term debt at competitive pricing. However, Q4 profit fell by 13.1% to US$ 504 million, compared to the same period in 2015.

Its sister bank, the Shariah-compliant Emirates Islamic, did not fare as well. Even with gross income remaining stable, profits sank by 76% to US$ 29 million on the back of a significant downturn in impairment provisions which jumped 66% to US$ 354 million.

Having gained over 5.0% (190 points) in the first two weeks of 2017 trading, the DFM opened Sunday at 3721 but lost some impetus losing 31 points (0.8%) to close Thursday (19 January 2017) on 3690. Volumes were lower, closing the last day of the week, at 903 million shares, valued at US$ 330 million, (cf 1.48 billion shares for US$ 414 million, the previous Thursday). Emaar Properties and Arabtec were both lower – by US$ 0.03, to US$ 2.06 and US$ 0.01 to US$ 0.40 respectively.

This week saw Brent Crude continue the previous week’s downward trend, trading US$ 1.85 lower at US$ 54.16. Having moved US$ 69 higher over the previous three weeks, gold nudged US$ 2 higher, closing at US$ 1,202 by Thursday (19 January 2017).

Hyundai / Kia expect to increase its US investment by 50% to US$ 3.1 billion over the next five year period including a new factory. Only three months ago the South Korean conglomerate opened a US$ 3 billion facility in Mexico that has an annual capacity of 300k vehicles.

The world’s largest eyewear manufacturer, Essilor International SA is set to acquire the leading global retailer, Luxottica Group SpA, in a US$ 24 billion deal which will see investors getting US$ 0.493 for each of the French lensmaker’s shares. News of the merger saw Essilor shares jumping 15% to US$ 125 whilst Luxottica rose 11% to US$ 60.

As expected, British American Tobacco has taken over Reynolds in a US$ 49.4 billion deal that has created the world’s largest listed tobacco firm. The company had already owned a 57.8% stake but had seen a US$ 47 billion offer rejected in November. The US company was the country’s second largest tobacco company, behind Altria, and last year had taken over Lorillard for US$ 25 billion.

US regulators have claimed that Qualcomm forced Apple to use its chips in return for lower fees as it studies whether the world’s biggest maker of mobile phone chips has abused its dominant marketing position. The Federal Trade Commission is looking at the process the San Diego firm collects royalties on its chip technology. This is not the first time that the company has faced antitrust rulings and investigations including having to pay a 2015 US$ 975 million penalty in China for similar charges.

It has taken almost 8 years for Moody’s to be fined US$ 864 million for their dubious role into credit ratings on sub-prime mortgage securities; it is estimated that the ratings agency earned US$ 2.5 billion in the four years prior to the GFC. This comes a year after S&P’s US$ 1.5 billion settlement with the US courts for similar offences. The agencies (and many “guilty” individuals) seem to have got off fairly lightly, considering that banks have already paid out US$ 162 billion in fines and penalties. Moody’s and S&P were apparently issuing top grade ratings to junk stock just so they could win business from the banks preparing the securities. At the time of the crisis, these two agencies, along with Fitch, had 96% of the market share.

Takata Corp is another entity to face the wrath of US courts. The company has settled for a US$ 1 billion fine for a fatal defect in its vehicle air bag inflators which has seen 11 killed in the US and 180 injured. The problem was so big that it involved the recall of 42 million vehicles and 69 million inflators in the country. (A day after this announcement, Toyota recalled a further 543k vehicles in the US).

To settle bribery and corruption cases, Rolls Royce, engine manufacturer, has agreed to pay US$ 817 million plus costs to the UK’s Serious Fraud Office and a further US$ 170 million to the Department of Justice in the US. Most of the offences involved “intermediaries” in China, Indonesia and other markets. A further US$ 26 million is expected to be paid to Brazilian regulators. It does seem odd that the SFO may be going after RR executives involved in the scandal when so many bankers seemed to have been let off the hook by the concerned authorities.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that Toshiba could be in a worse state than first thought. Its shares dived 25% on Thursday on fears that the blow-out from its US nuclear power business may see write-offs a lot higher than the US$ 6.1 billion first indicated.

The acting head of Samsung Electronics, Jay Y Lee has been indicted on bribery charges in a corruption scandal that threatens to embroil many of South Korea’s leading institutions. However, on Thursday, a judge ruled there was no reason, as yet, to detain the 48-year-old Samsung heir. This comes a month after the impeachment of President Geun-hye brought down by a cash-for-influence probe.

There were two major plane deals this week. Boeing has won a possible US$ 22 billion order with SpiceJet; this involves 205 Max 737s aircraft – a firm order for 100, a right to buy an additional 50 in the future and 55 jets from a previous order. India’s domestic air passengers surged by 21% last year and the country is expected to be the 3^rd biggest global aviation market within five years.

Saudi Arabia’s Flynas has reached a US$ 8.6 billion deal with Airbus for an unknown number of planes. Kingdom Holding Company owns 34% of the Riyadh-based budget carrier.

Privately owned conglomerate Kuang-Chi has acquired a substantial minority shareholding in Gilo Industries Group, a UK manufacturer of rotary engines for unmanned aeronautical vehicles. It seems that this deal is a forerunner of more to come as Chinese and other international companies target pioneering UK tech companies – a welcome sign that there is economic life after Brexit.

Morgan Stanley must be thanking Donald Trump after posting an 83.9% hike in Q4 profits to US$ 1.67 billion thanks to a boost in financial trading following the November presidential election. Over the past twelve months, the bank’s shares have climbed 68.2%, closing on Thursday at US$ 42.45.

For reported fees in excess of US$ 100k, David Cameron and George Osborne will give speeches in Davos for PwC and HSBC respectively. Both have been earning their bread around the world passing on their wisdom and experience, mainly to finance-related entities. Another politician on the gravy train is former Conservative leader and Foreign Secretary, William Hague. It is reported that the now Lord Hague has become a senior advisor to Citi, having already delivered nine speeches to the investment bank over the past year; he joins the former BoE Governor, Melvyn (now Lord) King who joined the bank in 2016.

Controversial Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has had a successful overseas trip raising US$ 33 billion in foreign investment, including US$ 15 million overseas development assistance from China and Japan, along with a further US$ 18 billion from private companies. Most of the money will be spent on much needed infrastructure projects.

As it continues to support the floundering yuan, China saw its November balance of US government bonds and other paper fall again – this time by US$ 66.4 billion to US$ 1.05 trillion.

The 19-country eurozone produced positive economic news towards the end of 2016 with December industrial production rising 1.5% month on month, compared to forecast expansion of 0.5%; the main drivers were a 2.9% rise in the production of non-durable consumer goods and a 1.6% increase in intermediate goods. Meanwhile the EU28 saw industrial output jump 3.1% in November.

Meanwhile, the ECB has maintained its base interest rate at zero and its monthly US$ 85 billion bond buying exercise. However its head, Mario Draghi, admitted that the economy was still fragile with the 19-country bloc facing continuing sluggish growth amid worries of a buckling Italian banking system.

A lot can happen in three months! Not renowned for their forecasting abilities, the IMF has slashed Saudi Arabia’s 2017 growth forecast from its October 2016 figure of 2.0% to 0.4%. On a global scale, the organisation has maintained their outlook of 3.4% and 3.6% over the next two years.

Both the UK and US economies have been upgraded – the former by 0.4% to 1.5% and the latter by 0.1% to 2.3%: this despite the doom and gloom dire warnings of many, who should know better, following Brexit and the Trump electoral victory. China’s growth is now changed to 6.5% (from 6.2%) whilst India’s forecast has been downgraded 0.4% to 6.8%, following PM Modi’s December demonetisation drive. For what it is worth, the IMF considers that the Russian and Brazilian declines have flattened out with minor growth forecast in 2017. No doubt their next deliberations due in April will be changed again!

Prime Minister May confirmed that the UK would be going for a “hard Brexit” and anything like partial memebrship was not an option. Her government would aim for a “bold and ambitious” free trade agreement with the EU. There were the expected dire warnings from the IMF but these have to be taken with a pinch of salt; this was the body that forecast before the referendum that an exit would have consequences from “quite bad to very, very bad” – since then the opposite happened and the world body has had to admit that it had been too pessimistic.

Unsurprisingly, banks have jumped on the bandwagon – with the likes of HSBC, JP Morgan and UBS threatening to shift jobs out of London.

December’s UK CPI surged 25%, month on month, to 1.6% – its highest level in over 30 months – largely because of the falling pound that has seen producer prices head north as costs for imported materials and fuels spiral. The month’s RPI, which measures consumer inflation, rose to 2.5%, as factory prices for raw materials and energy increased by 15.8% over the year.  The CPI is still below the government’s 2% target but if the recent trend continues then expect the BoE may press the button for a rate hike.

Good news for the incoming Trump administration that Amazon expects to grow its US workforce by 55% (100k) over the next 18 months. The jobs – mainly in software development and warehouse logistics – will help the world’s largest on-line retailer to fulfil orders quicker and cheaper in the future. Disappointing December US retail sales posted a 0.6% rise, slightly lower than market expectations, with the standout performer being the rebound in auto sales at 2.4% (after a 0.2% dip the previous month).

It is about time that doubters got used to the new order – both Brexit and Trump are here to stay. Undoubtedly, the global economy will benefit from a more modern and equitable way to address its problems that has seen only eight people share the same amount of wealth as 50% of the global population. Despite biased and often unsubstantiated reports to the contrary, these economic Luddites should finally understand that the 45^th President of the USA is no Fool On The Hill!